The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - Middlekauff's 3 for the $$$ Week 10 NFL Picks

Episode Date: November 14, 2021

John runs his top 3 Week 10 NFL games - and exclusive bonus pick - by Action Network sharp Stuckey to see if there's professional agreement or disagreement! Lock in.Make sure you follow John and The Volume on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to Humor Me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host, Kier Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor.

It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that doesn't. not mean that you need to. Listen to learn the hard way on the IHard radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tantons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense.

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You know, the SEC. They the favorite to win the SEC this year, you think? Stucky? Yeah, I mean, Alabama, yeah, Kentucky, I think, is come the end of the year once coach CalPara, his teams usually start slow. And a lot of times it's a lot of freshmen this year. There's also a bunch of transfers in the mix.

And then he starts to have them rolling towards, you know, February, March. I think they're the most talented team by far in the SEC. Alabama lost a couple key pieces. But they looked really good in their opener against Louisiana Tech, who is a really good been major. But I think that come the end of the year, Kentucky should be the clear favorite to win the SEC. Yeah, it'll be hit an interesting conference, for sure. Yeah, well, let's transition to the National Football League.

You can find Sucky every week, Thursday Action Network podcast, talking gambling. We had a rough week. I know I did personally as well because I took San Francisco and Cole McCoy beat the shit out of him. The Panthers. I wasn't with you on that one, and they destroyed, I mean, Sam Darnold, he stinks. Well, yeah, the problem there is, and what I came on here and talked about is as of Thursday last week, the assumption was Darnold was going to be out. And I don't think I could, I would take 10 points with Sam Darnow playing a Bill Belichick defense.

Then he ends up playing the DeKalindon defense plays well. But I, you can't, you cannot bet on Sam Darno against Bill Belichick. He is still seeing those. He is. But Cleveland, they house Cincey. So we started hot. We're 12, 14 and 1 on the season. Now, speaking of Carolina, they just signed Cameron Newton, who I'm sure won't play this week.

but they're getting 10.5 points at Arizona. I read a headline that Kyler said his ankle feels a lot better, but I do think with that win last week, what would be the rush to push them, especially with the way Colt played? You know, this one would be a hard game for me just to gamble on in general. It's a big spread, Carolina, 10 and a half on the road. What are you thinking here?

Yeah, I'm going to start calling these, somebody expects the curse of middle calf. I mean, in 10 years in the NFL, I haven't had two games where I knew the starter was going to be out, beat the close by seven points, get the backup and the backup rolls. Cooper Rush, I mean, it was so eerie how similar Cooper Rush and then Cole McCoy were. But yeah, I played the Panthers Plus 10 and a half year. Bonus, we know for sure Sam Darnel will be out.

And the market kind of moved this lineup. I don't think there's any difference between him and PJ Walker. He's that terrible. And PJ Walker at least gives you an option with his legs. But I agree. I don't think that I think there's a chance that Kyler-Marry and DeAndre Hopkins won't play again. And if that's the case, the line will crash and I'll have to it 10 and a half and that's all I can ask for. The Cardinals are also really beat up.

Rondell Moore didn't practice today. He has concussion and a knee injury. Buda Baker, concussion and an injury. They have a ton of injuries. Yeah. They are. Yeah. And look, this is, it's a semi-flat spot.

You want to talk about the mirrors to the Cowboys game. Cowboys go on the road. get a win with their backup quarterback. That's like a team effort. Everyone is all in. We have to all step up. They come home, 10-point favorite. They lay a complete egg to the Broncos.

It's not a 3-0-0 in third quarter. Same thing here. Go to San Francisco. Team effort. And now you come home, you're a 10-point favorite. Against the team playing for their season. But the Panthers win this game, assuming Dallas beats Atlanta. They're in the seventh spot in the NFC wild car race.

But, you know, so number one, I think you might have a limited, limited Murray or no Murray at all. If there's no Murray, this line is, you know, five, six points off. Even if Murray plays, last year, Carolina beat up this Arizona team. Out gained him 442 to 200, held Murray to 133 yards passing. He ran for 80. I don't think he's going to be running for many yards if he does play, because he's going to be limited mobility-wise, which just really crushes their entire offense.

And this Arizona team is running really well. I mean, they have a lot of regression coming for him. I'll give you a couple examples. They lead the NFL in fumbles per game. yet they lead the NFL with the fewest amount of fumbles lost per game. Their opponents lead the NFL in fumbles per game and fumbles lost per game. I'll put it another way. Cardinals and their opponents have both fumbled 16 times.

The cardinals have lost 2, 8%. Their opponents have lost 10, 65%. You see this early, look, the San Francisco game last week, three fumbles in the first quarter. Arizona recovers them all. I mean, all of a sudden that game snowballed, Same thing happened in the Cleveland game. How about fourth downs?

Arizona is eight for nine, leads the NFL 90%. Opponents, six of 20, 30%. I mean, these are game swinging plays on four downs. Cardinals third down, the best in the NFL at 31%. Yet, if you look at their early down success rate, they're on early downs. They're 23rd in the NFL against the run, 27th against the pass.

And third and fourth down, which are high variance downs, they're getting very fortunate. So I think across the board, there's a lot of regression coming for this Cardinals team who's getting in these favorable game states early in games because of these fumbles, a couple of professional penalties. They're just having things go their way. So I think that their numbers are a bit inflated. And their run defense is terrible.

That's the thing you have to keep in mind here. McCaffrey didn't even play in that game last year. I think that that's what Matt Ruhl is going to lean on here. I think this is a bit too many points for a desperate Carolina team. against a banged-up Arizona team that I think has some regression coming. So I took the 10 and a half here. The fumbles last week with the Niners game, the first one, George Kittle has a sweet play over the middle.

It goes through three guys. The ball comes out. The second fumble is deep in their own red area. Iyuk makes this incredible catch. He keeps a guy out. And then he goes. And then he fucking hits it out of his hand. I mean, it was crazy.

And the third one, Arizona's deep in San Francisco's territory. And it's in the same. I know. And it pops out somehow. I mean, so these are the things. And look, those are 14, potential 14-point swings three times. Yeah. And then all of a sudden, you know, the game is out of reach.

And then teams can't run on Arizona because the game, and that's Arizona thrives on their pass rush. When you're down 14 points in the second half. Yeah. Then you have to abandon the run. Teams like San Francisco, Cleveland, who can really, I mean, this Arizona run defense is a bottom 10, maybe bottom five unit, especially without Watt.

So I think if the Panthers can keep this close, don't fumble. And hey, maybe the Cardinals will lose a couple of these fumbles. You know, I think the Panthers, I wouldn't shock me if they pulled off this upset. Okay, the Saints at Tennessee, you know, it's weird. Obviously, the Saints get that ass kicking. They beat the bucks, and then they come back and they lose to the Falcons at home. Tennessee is just beating every good team every single week pretty easily. It's kind of nuts.

I don't even, I guess I would take the Saints here, just kind of shorting Tennessee. They're just bound to, even if they have a great season, 12 and 5, they're going to lose some games, right? This feels a little bit like a spot. Maybe they just run out of juice. Yeah, that's, I took the Saints plus three here. I have the Saints rated higher than the Titans.

I mean, the Titans are 7 and 2, and you have to give them credit for some of these wins. Now, they're running really well in the turnover department over this stretch. But, you know, are they going to run out? There's just has to be a potential for fatigue here, right? You beat the bills, the chiefs. Then you go on the road in overtime and you end your division rivals hopes of winning the division. Then you go out west.

Everyone says you have no chance in prime time and you beat the Rams. Now you come back home and play the Saints. I mean, that is a brutal stretch. So look, the Titans offense did nothing last week. Absolutely nothing. Can they win games without Derek Henry? their quarterback throwing for 120 yards? Yeah, not against great defenses.

And the Saints arguably have the best defense in the NFL now that they're healthy. You can't run against them. And Tennessee can't run. AD had 10 carries for 20 yards. So that really takes away their play action game. The Saints won't have to commit anyone to the box. And they have Latimore who can take away A.J. Brown. And this Titans team, you want to look at like projected wins?

I mean, look, the bills don't get a yard. the Colts in that game with some of the Turner losing overtime. You know, they're really running well in some of these close games. Projected wins, which looks at the postgame win probability, they're 7 and 2, but their projected wins are 4.5. That's 18th in the NFL. The Saints, meanwhile, are 5.6. That's 6 in the NFL.

The Titans, despite being 7 and 2, they're being outgained on the year. They're averaging 5.6 yards per play, which is 22nd in the NFL. they're allowing 5.8. That's 19th in the NFL. So, you know, the Titans, where I do have to get them credit on their defense is their defensive line. They have been getting pressure. Jeffrey Simmons has been a stud.

You know, you have a couple guys off of the edge and Landry that are getting pressure. That takes some of the pressure off of their defensive backs, which are bad. But, you know, the Saints have an elite offensive line. So I think they can neutralize that here. They can get the run game going. Even if Kamar is a little banged up, I think you're going to say, a lot of Taysam Hill packages. I'm not a fan of them, but I think they can work here because the Titans Runny is one of the worst in the NFL. Big special teams edge for New Orleans,

I think a coaching edge as well. And this is just a great spot for New Orleans off of that bad loss, which, look, two weeks ago they beat the box. Really bad flat spot last week. Sean Payton is an underdog, 44, 25, and 2, 64% in his career covering by 4 points per game. Second most profitable at 140 coaches last 20 years, only behind Tomlin. Even better, Peyton off of a loss, 49 and 26 against the spread, 65%. He's 26 and 10 against the spread on the road off of a loss.

So, you know, this is a great spot to back Peyton, a great spot to sell high on the Titans who have just been running well. And look, no Henry. The offensive line is banged up on the left side. And this Saints defense is legit. I think they grind out a win here. Hi, it's the herd for Fandle.

Monday night football matchup, Rams, nines. Rams are minus four. I'd probably take the niners plus four. It's a divisional matchup. It's perhaps Garoppolo's last start. He's fighting for his job. In this matchup, Kyle Shanahan has had Sean McVeigh's number. I do think the Rams were embarrassed.

I would not be surprised if the Rams won and covered. But listen, same game parlayes. There's a lot of different things you can go here. I would probably take the 49ers and the under because I don't think the 49ers can win a shootout. think the 49ers know they can't win a shootout? Listen, Fandul Sportsbook's the best, easy to use, safe and secure, and you can win $150 bucks in a $5 bet, seriously.

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I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions,

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you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's

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and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode, with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so you know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line.

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Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Keer Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we, are in possession of the thing, and we're still chasing it, and we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth,

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But the Steelers coming off, you know, it was impressive win and they let them back. But I thought they outplayed Chicago pretty easily if it wasn't for the special team's touchdown. And then the lions who, you know, are in complete shambles. They haven't won a game. They played some close games early, but they're coming off a buy. The week, I guess two weeks ago, the Eagles beat the living shit out of them. It's the biggest win for an Eagles history on the road. Absolutely housed them.

And it's not like Jaylen Hurts threw four touchdowns. He threw for like 100 yards in that game. I mean, they embarrassed them. But it feels like you kind of like Detroit in this spot. Let me hear. Yeah, I mean, it's three for the money. And those two plays that I get are my biggest bets of the weekend. A lot of teasers.

I like the Browns under. Action Network app you could follow all my picks. But this is the only other straight upside that I did play. So I do have money on it, but it's a smaller play. I just think that it's too many points. There's a little value that I'm showing on the Lions for, number one, it's a good spot. You have the lines off of a buy, just desperate for a win. And the, you know, the Steelers are coming off a Monday night game and a hard-fought win the wind right down to the wire.

So from a rest preparation perspective, lines are still winless. You know they're going to come out and throw the kitchen sink here trying to get a win. So you could see some trick plays, some special teams plays. You saw that when they went to the Rams. And this Steelers' offense, I just don't know if they can, they should be laying over a touchdown. Anyone, they haven't beat it by anyone by a touchdown this year. Ben Rothersberger is playing very poorly. Anytime he's under pressure, he has an 11% turnover-worthy throw rate under pressure.

And that's the next highest is Justin Fields at like 7%. So and there's been a lot of drop picks. He's not playing well. The offensive line is not playing well. And they cannot throw it deep. I mean, you look at his average depth of target. It's seven yards. He gets rid of the ball within like a second, you know?

I mean, that's a good thing for Detroit here. That's one of the things I'm counting because the lines have the worst deep passing defense in the NFL. Their corners are bad. They have the worst free safety in the NFL. And they cannot defend the deep pass. They're 30 second in the NFL. Defending the deep pass, they're the only team with an average depth of target allowed of over 10 yards.

Steelers can't do that. Can't take advantage of this really bad secondary. And there's no clay pool now. They're deep threat. So at least the lines are going to make them drive it down the field with short passes. You hope to get a couple stops. Look, you're catching nine points with a,

total that's extremely low. The lines have showed that they'll fight till the end, right? They'll onside kick it. They'll try to score to the last possible second. So if you're down 14, you can get a back door here. It's not a bet that I love, but it's a decent spot. Winless teams, by the way, after week six, 60% against the spread historically. Like, who wants to back the lions here? So, you know, I think that the Steelers, it's not a great spot. Their offense isn't great. And I'm not excited to back the lines here, but I do show a small bit of value and did play them. So that gets number three here. But I would, I love the, the Saints and the Panthers significantly more. Okay. Let's go. This is my favorite matchup of the week at New England.

Belichick, he's getting his groove. His defense has been great. They have a, you know, a defined offense because they can really run the ball and they don't ask Mack to do that much. Cleveland, As a time of recording this, we don't know the status of Chubb, you know, because he's vaccinated, he can test back in. But clearly when he's on the field and when he's off the field is a big fucking difference for them. And if there is a chance that he's out, I mean, I would lay the mortgage on New England. Even if he plays, you know, Baker's banged up. He's clearly a shell of himself for most of the season, while he did play well last week now that he doesn't have the O'Dell, you know, kind of drama around. But I like New England a lot in this spot, minus one and a half at home.

To me, this is just a Belichick special. How about you? Yeah, I don't have a strong opinion on the side with Chubb's uncertainty. But I really do like this under, under 45. I played some under 45 and a half. Mack Jones has been okay for a rookie. But under pressure, as you'd expect with a rookie, he's been very poor. We look at last week.

I mean, against Carolina, he did nothing at all. He takes a lot, he takes a lot of hits in the passing game for sure. I mean, he's got peppered. Yeah, now you're playing a Brownstein that's third and adjusted Zachary, top five and pressure rate. This is one of the, I think the Browns have one of the most underrated defenses in the league now that they're healthy. Their secondary is healthy.

Some of their numbers are a little bit deflated because of, you know, early in the year they were dealing with a lot of injuries, but they'll get pressure here. And they can contain this New England offense. On the other side, I think the New England defense can do the same to Cleveland. And then when I look at this game, it's two teams that play slow. They're both in the bottom 10 of adjusted pace in neutral situations. These are two teams that are in the top 10 in rush rate.

So you're going to have a lot of runs, I think a lot of punts. And most importantly, this clock is going to be bleeding. Teams that like to play slower and run the ball throughout the. the game. So I think this is a really good under spot. And that's the way that I'm playing. I don't think the Brown's defense is getting enough love. And I don't think that Mack Jones is going to do much. And the Brown's run defense has been really strong. So I think this is more of a grinder. I don't hate your angle there, but I prefer the under. Gotcha. Well, Stucky, let's get hot again. Let's make some money. I'm going to throw a little cash on the Saints.

you've convinced me. I like them in that spot as well. And have a good weekend. Hopefully your Kentucky Wildcats can get a win coming up. Thanks, brother. Enjoy your weekend and good luck. Adios. The volume. The Winter Olympics are streaming on Peacock live. Your All Access Pass to stream every event every day. The Winter Olympics on NBC and Peacock. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite.

Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple

podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app. Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host, Keer Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere,

but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor? It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to. Listen to learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast.

Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of taun tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to Stuff to Blow Your Mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.