The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - Middlekauff's 3 for the $$$ Week 11 NFL Picks

Episode Date: November 21, 2021

John runs his top 3 Week 11 NFL games - and exclusive bonus pick - by Action Network sharp Stuckey to see if there's professional agreement or disagreement! Lock in.Make sure you follow John and The Volume on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor. It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that doesn't. not mean that you need to. Listen to learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your

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That's 1-800flowers.com slash tune-in. Let's get to a man that's hot. Had a big bounce-back week. He likes some games. It seemed crazy on paper. Panthers plus 10 and a half. Just easy outright win.

Saints, Tennessee. That got a little dicey, but they pulled it off. And Detroit, I mean, what an effort by the Dan Campbell play call. now, Dan Campbell, the offensive coordinator and the Lions. You can hear Stucky every week, Thursday Action Network podcast picking games.

What's up, my man? What's going on? Yeah, I'm glad we avoided overtime with the Saints. And the Saints should have never been that close. There was that roughing the passer call early in the game on an interception. I talked about this on my Action Hour podcast earlier this week. Why don't we just review roughing the passer? They want to protect the quarterbacks.

We can't flip games on these awful calls. You're a college. You watch college too. You're a huge college fan. We're doing college, right? Throw the flag for targeting. You go look at it real quick, say, oops, my bad.

We're trying to protect players, but this is wrong. We looked at it real quick. All right, no targeting. Do the same thing with roughing the past or it makes way too much sense. Yeah, it's an easy one. I wonder if in the offseason someone brings that to the table in the competition committee. I guess the one pushback might be the game flow. because like in the NFL, obviously, you can challenge other plays.

In college, the challenges, I'm not exactly, you might know the rule. Like, it just doesn't seem like as many plays get challenged in college like they do in the NFL. Is that fair? Yeah, but what they're starting to do now, which I'm a huge fan of with the NFL, is they'll have these quick reviews, right? Where they're just buzzed down and say, he was out of bounds. And they don't have to go. And it takes 10 seconds. So if it's iffy, right?

Maybe then they just let it stand. But on some of these where the quarterback just gets pushed, they can buzz down real quick, they can be like, hey, hey, that's not rough in the past. They just have to do something. These are game-changing calls sometimes. I agree. I agree.

It's getting hard to watch, and no one likes it. And it's, so anyway, I digress. Okay, let's start with, I mean, on paper, with the Chiefs kicking the Raiders ass and kind of getting their swag back. Might be the game of the weekend. Dallas going to Arrowhead. You have Mahomes coming off five touchdowns. Back in that offense, absolutely, you know, embarrassed Atlanta.

It was 36 to 3 in the first half. Honestly, I don't know if I could bet this game because you would go. It's hard to go against Andy Reid, Mahomes, when they kind of got it rolling at home. But I would say Dallas is just a terrible matchup for Kansas City, given how they can throw the ball. And you'd say, you know, in the last couple years, Kansas City ain't really covering anyone.

So this is probably a stay away for me, but I know you like, who do you like in this game? Yeah, I played the Chiefs. I mean, getting my homes and anything under a field goal at home is always going to be tough to pass up. They haven't been great at cover over the past year plus. They are one of the worst teams in the NFL against the spread. And they really hardly ever cover anymore as more than a field goal favor. I think my home's down is 1924, 19 and 24 against the spread as. more than a field goal favor.

However, when he's an underdog or a favorite of a fieldgoer or less, he's 10, 2 and 1 against the spread. You don't have to worry about the defense giving up a back door. He just needs to go out and win this game. And I like what I saw for the past few weeks. The league adjusted to the Chiefs, and now the Chiefs had to adjust back, and they were being too stubborn.

Holmes even said it. He said, it's not in my nature to play like this. Run the ball, set up the long pass. Well, you could do that against the Cowboys. You can run the ball. You can throw to your tight end. And then you can set up the deep pass, take advantage of Trayvon Diggs's aggressiveness. So I think this is a great matchup for Kansas City's offense.

I think they're finally learning how to approach these teams who are just saying, look, we're going to drop her safeties, we're not going to blitz. And don't forget, a big part of stopping the Chiefs is you have someone that can get pressure. And the Cowboys won't have Randy Greger, who's been one of the best past switches in NFL this year. And DeMarcus Lawrence is still an IR. So their top two pass rushes are out. I think that's big here. And the other side of the ball, the Chief's defense has been playing a lot better.

First five weeks, two and three record, gave up 32.6 points per game. Last five, four and one record, they're giving up 15 points per game. Competition got a little bit easier, but you cut sorens and snaps in half. You know, you add Melvin Ingram, you move Chris Jones back inside. You get Willie Gay more snaps. You know, you get Charbarious Ward back healthy. So there's a lot going on with this defense. It's still a bad defense, but not bottom of the barrel worse than the league.

So I think the defense has improved a bit. Dow should move the ball. But I like the Chiefs here, special teams advantage, coaching advantage. I trust what this offense is doing. And I trust Kansas City to get this win at home. I still think that they're a little undervalued in the market from what we've seen earlier in the year. This is still the number one offense. Honestly, you sold me because after the Raider game, I told myself, like, the Chiefs aren't just going to win this division.

They're just going to start getting rolling. Well, if you like them to finish strong, this is the last time you're going to see a line like this, right? At home, minus two. So if you like them to be an 11-win team, they win this game, that thing's going to switch fast, right? It's not going to take the market long to pivot on them. Yeah, you win this. They win this game by 14. You will never see the chiefs under three at home again, maybe, until my home's contract is up.

Yeah, I agree. Well, how about this one's tricky because, Green Bay. Hard to totally judge them last week. Aaron didn't get to practice. We've seen what they look like before he got COVID and was practicing. They're pretty good, but they've had some injuries. Minnesota, kind of like the Niners, their record doesn't quite match up their talent. I mean, Justin Jefferson's a star. Cousins has been rolling. That place fucking rocks. Yep. I want to take Minnesota plus two and a half, but I've, I've just seen cousins in some of these important games. Now, this is not Sunday night or Monday night. This is his, this is

when he thrives 10 a.m. for us on the West Coast. But, you know, plus two and a half is, it's pretty tasty. You watch that Charger game, I mean, they kicked the Chargers butt. I mean, I know the score, to me, the score was, the game was not as close as the score. I thought they, I thought they worked them. So, I mean, I guess I'd lean plus two and a half. How about you? Yeah, I think you got to take the points here. I mean, these two teams, if you put their resumes next to each other, you probably couldn't tell the difference between them. If you look at, look, the Packers are 8 and 2. The Vikings are 4 and 5.

If you look at estimated wins, which looks at an estimated win probability at the end of games, they each have 6.4 wins on the dot. They've been pretty equal. You can look at two games just to show that the Packers have won these coin flips and the Vikings haven't. The Vikings, by the way, lost two overtime games. They've been in every single game.

They haven't lost by more than one possession. But look at Cincinnati and Arizona. They both played them, and they both played them on the road. The Packers won in Arizona because Arizona threw a pick at the goal line at the last second. Well, Minnesota missed a 30-yard field goal to win it at the end. How about Cincinnati? Green Bay won an overtime in a game where there was 10 missed field goals. Minnesota lost in overtime in Cincinnati on a questionable fumble call.

So, I mean, all of these games, if you look at some common opponents, they're so close. So Green Bay just kind of won the coin flip and the Minnesota didn't. These teams have been pretty equal. all year. And now you're getting two and a half points at home in the Viking season. I mean, they're four and five. They need this game. And they're, they have a pretty good matchup here. The Packers' defense is, you have to give credit to Joe Barry. I mean, they're playing really well, given all the injuries. I mean, you don't have Zadarii Smith. You don't have Jerry Alexander. Now, you've now lost maybe Rashon Gary, Whitney Merseilles is out for the year, lots of injuries across the board.

I don't think that their corners can hold up here, and their run defense is still bad. Dalvin Cook, who tore them apart in Lambo last year and a straight-up win. I think you can have a day here. The other side of the ball, your defense gets healthier. Peterson should be back. Barr should be back. Harrison Smith should be back. The defense is playing really well.

So, you know, and there's injuries on the offensive line and skill positions for Green Bay. So I think you're getting Minnesota at a discount here. Yes, it's scary. It won't be easy. Ryder's going to put up a fight, but I think you have to buy the Vikings here. These two teams have been pretty even all year. And just the coin flip, the coin in these coin flip games is just due to flip to the Viking side here. So I like Minnesota catching points at home here.

That place is going to be berserk at kickoff. The horn? You're going to hear the horn. The crazy thing is if Minnesota wins this game and the Niners take care of business in Jacksonville, you know, you got an early Thanksgiving Day week playoff game next week, Niners, Minnesota. Yeah. That game would be huge. as long as both those, I mean, if Minnesota upsets him here and the Niners take care of business, we'll be talking about that bad boy next week.

Yeah. And then you'll have your, that'll be just a massive tiebreaker potentially for a wildfire. Oh, it's for sure. Let's pivot to the NFC West. Everyone I just would imagine think Seattle sucks. Russell looked pretty bad. I mean, there's no way around it. The cards have just been, Colt McCoy came back to Earth and just got kind of blitzkrieked by the Carolina Panthers and Newton

and PJ Walker. It's a weird spot. I would imagine most people assume Kyler Murray's going to play. I think he said yesterday, he's feeling a lot better, practicing this week. You know,

it just feels like there's some value here with Seattle. You get Russell another week of practice, but I saw today before we hopped on, DK's banged up. You know, I mean, that's a pretty big deal for them. He's obviously played well in those games.

But these teams play each other really tight. You know, even before Kingsbury, I would say the last seven, eight years, They've just played some pretty legendary games. I guess Seattle at home getting points is just not something. We've talked before beginning of the year lines.

If I would have said beginning of the year line, Seattle's not getting two and a half points, right, in this matchup. So that's just the value there probably. I don't know how you go away from that. Yeah, you got to take Seattle here. Russell Wilson's trying to avoid losing three consecutive starts for the first time in his career. It's never happened. Off of a loss, he's like 68% against the spread. as an underdog, he's 68% against the spread.

I mean, there is just, there's just so many trends I could get into why Seattle's the player. But just from a broader view, look, Seattle last week played awful, but it was Russell Wilson's first start back from injury. We've seen that all year. We saw, I mean, just Tyrod Taylor looked like he never threw football before in Miami. Dak Prescott looked like he's never completed a pass in his first start back against Denver. So, I mean, there was some Russi had a shake-off. Now the sky is falling, the sky is falling.

I saw there's some articles in Seattle. It's the end of the Russell Wilson era. They're already, they're moving on from Russell Wilson already. All right. Just probably breaks now. I mean, we just talked about Minnesota and San Frang. They win this game. They're back in the potential wild corner.

This is their season. Meanwhile, Arizona, who I still think it's a tad overrated. We talked about this last week. They've had a lot of fumble lock, third down lock, fourth down lock, just a lot of things that have gone their way all year. they're sitting pretty right now with their record, and they'll buy next week. I tend to think that Kyle and Murray,

it's going to get held out here. And DeAndre Hopkins, maybe the same. All the talk, everything that Cliff says is we want to be cautious because last year, Mary had an injury that lingered all year. And I would imagine the Cardinals have bigger plans this season and they should make the playoff. So I wouldn't be shocked if, once again, for the third week in a row, It's announced Murray's out, and then the sign will flip and Seattle will be a three, three and a half point favorite, which is you'll get great closing on value.

But even if he does play, I still like Seattle here catching points. And I assume he won't be 100% mobile, which is just such a massive aspect of the Cardinals' offense is Mary's mobility and his ability to make play. So, yeah, I think you have to buy low on Seattle here for a multitude of reasons. and, you know, you might, you know, I get lucky, and Arizona is short-handed, and you have Colt McCoy in there again, or Chris Streveller. NFL season has given us a big week 11 divisional matchup, rivals the Arizona Cardinals and Seahawks. Fandul sportsbooks about to make it even bigger.

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Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented at all embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

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on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to? to do a little kill. Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down,

and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84's big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but yeah, yeah, yeah. But just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line.

We also have AIDS. on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking. Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing,

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one hour. If you could find a way to get inside. Each other's mind. Walk a mile in my shoes. Walk a mile in my shoes. We've all felt left out. And for some, that feeling lasts more than a moment. We can change that. Learn how it belonging begins with us.org. Brought to you by the ad council. Okay, I got to ask you a quick bonus game. This is kind of an early AFC, you know, wildcard tiebreaker matchup here with the Bengals going to the Raiders. You know, the Raiders just a couple weeks ago, we're five and two. And now it looks like, are they just about to be five and five?

The Bengals who after that Raven game, everyone loved them. And now it feels like, are they actually kind of who we thought they were? Maybe a six, seven win team. You know, it's a pick-em right now from what I see. Honestly, I guess I would take the Raiders just because they're at home. But I do not feel good about the way they've been trending these last two weeks. Is there value in the Bengals or they, is this just the ultimate coin flip game? Yeah, this game, if you, I have no clue on.

I make it right around a pick. I can convince myself on either side. I think it's really going to come down to how much pressure can the Raiders, edge rushers get. Because I don't think their secondary is going to hold up here. But they can get pressure since they has a questionable offensive line. How much can they bother Barrow? You're right. There's something that seems with the Raiders that's trending down.

But same with the Bengals. So we'll see how they react. Zach Taylor, by the way, has been horrific on the road in his career as well. Not a big fan of him. To put the chariot on top. My guy, now I'm forgetting his name. One of the, the ref whoever did the drone boger, who I hate in his games, he always just, he did that personal path.

He's doing that game too. So I stay away from him. I try to stay away from his game for Impossible. I have nothing there. If you're looking for another bet and you want to hold your nose, I like the Titans, I like the Texans, excuse me, plus 10 and a half against the Titans. Hold your nose spot, but I think Tyotale would be better after the buy. I think that Tennessee will be a little, could be a little flat here.

Look, look at these bills, chiefs, Colts, Rams, Saints. That's their last five games. We're five and O in those games. Patriots next week. This is a spot where you come out a little flat against the Texans. off of a buy. Tyra Taylor, I think we'll play better, can keep them in this. No Julio Jones, no Derek Henry. I think that you could take 10 of a half in this division game. Won't be easy. Could get a little scary, but I did bet the Texans. You're a good man, Stucky. Have a good weekend.

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Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,

or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at a podcast. In 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam Jay And I'm Alex English Each episode We pick a year

unpack what went down And try to make sense of how we survived it With our friends Fellow comedians And favorite authors Like Mark Lamont Hill On the 80s

It was a wild year I don't think There's a more important year for black people Listen to look back at it On the Iheart radio app Apple Podcasts Or wherever you get your podcasts

Imagine an Olympics Where doping is not only legal But encouraged It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to learn the hard weight with your favorite therapist and hosts care games. This space is about black men's experiences,

having honest conversations that's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor? It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to,

listen to learn the hard way on the IHard radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. This is an IHart podcast. Guaranteed human