The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - Middlekauff's 3 for the $$$ Week 13 NFL Picks

Episode Date: December 5, 2021

John runs his top 3 Week 13 NFL games - and exclusive bonus pick - by Action Network sharp Stuckey to see if there's professional agreement or disagreement! Lock in.Make sure you follow John and The Volume on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games.

This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor? It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to. Listen to learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes.

Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of Tontons and Wampas on the ice planet, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to blow your mind on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Get right to the romance and find the way to wow this valentines with 1800flowers.com. From classic roses and bouquets to decadent chocolate-covered berries, gourmet treats, and more. Surprise your Valentine with 1,800flowers.com.

Right now, get the 18-stem enchanted rose medley. for $3999 or upgrade to 24 red roses for $10 more. Go to 1,800flowers.com slash tune in. That's 1,800flowers.com slash tune in. The volume. Here with my main man, Stucky, you can hear him every week. Action Network podcast. Comes out Thursday morning, so go subscribe to that.

Rough week last week, Stucky. I did too. I lost a lot of money. The Rams just got. I mean, they look like shit. Carolina in shambles and the Texans who I looked up, it felt like they were a lock. And then all of a sudden, later Sunday night,

I wasn't even paying attention. I saw this clip of Zach Wilson getting interviewed after the game on the field. I'm like, the Jets won this game. I didn't watch one snap of that bad boy, but we had a rough weekend, Stucky. Yeah, it was good, good Thanksgiving and then gave it all back, plus some on Sunday. this is also a

this is also a very rough Sunday card just like last week it's not terrible. It's the end of the year. The lines are starting to get more efficient and then especially this week as you go down on the card it is just 7, 8, 9, 10 point road favorites in division, never easy. So I wouldn't go crazy on anything this week but I did find some bets worth throwing a

little bit of money down on this week. Well, I told you last week my favorite bet of the week was Steelers getting four and a half at the Bengals. I watched that game the other day on the game pass. The Bengals beat the living shit out of them and they looked. I mean, the Bengals looked good. I didn't. Their offense looks remarkable. But the Steelers just saw a headline. Tomlin put them through a physical practice on Wednesday. This is, you know, I think it's safe to say they're seasons on the line, especially if you assume some of these six and five teams in the the AFC are going to win, that the Steelers would be in trouble. A little must win spot, even I don't even know if they're going to win,

but you would assume this game would be a little closer. So I guess I would go back to the Well Steelers plus four and a half. What say you? Yeah, I leaned the Steelers last week. I unfortunately didn't play them. Didn't throw more money away last Sunday. But I did play them this week. And I'm a, the only team I really care about is better is I'm a Ravens fan.

and the one thing that I do know is the Ravens fan is you throw out anything that's going on with these teams when they play records I mean look at last year the Ravens junior JV COVID team went in the pits did undefeated Pittsburgh team and almost beat them these teams just know each other so well since Harbaal arrived in 2008 the Ravens are 13 and 13 against the Steelers and 17 of the 26 games have been decided by four points or less 20 of the 26. six by one possession. Here's the craziest part. When either of these teams is favored by three or more points in this head to head since 2008, the favorite is one, 13, and two against the spread. This game just always ends up coming down to a field goal. The underdog finds a way to win. And you're right. This is a classic Tomlitzpot. It doesn't work out every time. But Tomlin last week, not as much of a Tomlestone spot. You know, they had a good. good effort against the Chargers, given how much they were missing. But now, after getting embarrassed, and by the way, do you know who else got embarrassed by the

Bengals was the Ravens at home? They lost by 35. And the Rayvens have not. Very similar ass ass kicked. Yeah. And the Ravens have not been great. I mean, no, they didn't deserve to win that game last week. They get their asses kicked by the Dolphins on Thursday night. This is a team that the comeback gets the Vikings at home. I mean, I can go on and on. They have not looked great. Six and O in one possession games. third team in the last 30 years to have five fourth quarter comebacks in their first 10 games. So this team is just really just skating by.

A lot of injuries still. Offense doesn't look great. And the Tomlin spot. He's 35, 16, and 2 against the spread as a dog from week three on. 29, 8 and 1 against the spread as an underdog versus an opponent with an equal or betting record. 12.3 and 2 against the spread as a home dog. And by the way, teams failing to cover by over 28.

points the previous week. Over the last 20 years or 62% against the spread the next week. Steelers fit that category this week. And the Marj Jackson just hasn't looked great in his career against the Steelers. They played very well against him. Three touchdowns, five picks, hasn't ran it well either. These teams are very familiar with each other. Must win for the Steelers. I think there's just too many points. You got to take them with the Steelers at home, even without what. Well, you and I probably three or four weeks ago said keep an eye on the Niners. Nider start Ron. They played Minnesota last week. Kind of similar teams. I think both

could beat anyone on any given day. Minnesota, like Justin Jefferson's a star. Obviously now Dalvin Cook's out, but Madison's a good player. They have some issues on defense, but they are so much better than the Lions. And it does feel like,

I mean, the Lions headed toward a winless season. At least they got a tie. But this week, Minnesota, despite, you know, losing that game, they're still in the seventh seat. And if they win this game, they'll still be in very good shape. A ton of other teams, or you saw the Eagles, like they're, they're

not anything. The Saints are in shambles. Carolina's done. Like, those two last two spots should be the Niners in Minnesota. And I, you know, you would think, even though that was a pretty big kick in the, you know what, last week to lose that game, they still control their own destiny. I,

I do like them this week against the Lions. How about you? Yeah. Yeah, I agree. Not a huge edge here. I mean, you're still laying seven, seven on the road in division against a team that's still a little, it's still very desperate to get their first win. But this is a bad football team. And you're right. And by the way, the 49ers, it's a huge win just if it comes,

if someone else does sneak up and they hold that tiebreaker as we talked about. But the Lions, look, when you look at their offense, I mean, golf is, we know how bad is he doesn't have many weapons. The one, you know, the one guy that can make some explosive plays in the run game and then out of the backfield is DeAndre Swift. Well, he's out a couple weeks. So now it's, Dan Campbell taken over play calling from Anthony Lynn, and we saw how that worked out on Thanksgiving.

It's just let's run a draw. Let's run another draw. And then we'll run another draw. And he said that we're not going to play scared, and that's all they did, is run draws to Williams. So that's not working out well. And he said he's going to keep the play calling duties until the end of the year. And then on the other side of the ball with their defense, it's one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. They can't stop the pass.

They cannot get any pressure. Yes, Dalvin Cook is hurt. I think that works out for the Vikings here. That means cousins to be passing more to Phelan and Jefferson against the secondary that cannot defend them. I think the Vikings come out here in a game where there's almost no home field advantage. In division, you're familiar with the environment, indoors on a fast track. And I mean, how many fans are going to be there for this after, you know, you lost Thanksgiving. You're out 10 and 1.

So I think that the Vikings get this done by at least a touchdown. Sunday night football, the games have got flexed. Denver has to have one of the most bizarre seasons of the year. Because if you watch them on the right weekend, you go, this is a 6-7 seat, right? And if you watch them on the wrong weekend, you go, God, this is a team drafted in the top 10. We know the divisional games are tough.

You know, it's kind of crazy when you look at the AFC West standings. Obviously, the chiefs are in first, 7 and 4. Every other team is 6 and 5. So, I mean, it's not inconceivable that the Bronco, you were to win this game? You know, we'd be a playoff. team. So 10 points to me, Stucky, for a divisional game with a team that it does have a good defense seems like a lot. Yeah. Yeah, it's the same thing with the, you know, the, the Steelers and

the Browns and last, like they just, they're still right there. Similar divisions. But, yeah, I think that this is too many points if you can get the 10. Maybe you either by the 10 of minus 1,15. Denver has been, I mean, Kansas City is own Denver. I was like, I was thinking of myself, When's the last time they beat Kansas City? I couldn't think of it. I went back and checked. Kansas City's won 11 in a row against Denver, which is just crazy. That's a lot.

This is, it's too many points. Look, the Bronco should have the tackles back. Their offense is playing pretty well. I mean, they're great out around like the 11th, the 12th best offense in the NFL, and they've had a lot of injuries at receiver, the offensive line. Bridgewater's playing in an extremely high level. He's second in the NFL. If you look at a metric called EPA plus completion percentage over expectation,

deposit. Only Murray, Kylea Murray is higher. Mahomes, for reference, is ninth. Bridgewater, 26 and 9 against the spread as an underdog in his career, just crazy. 20 and 5 as a road dog, and as a road dog over a field goal, he's 15 and 2, 88.2%. The Chief's defense, I will give you, is better, or they got some guys held through, they move some pieces around, they stopped using sorens it as much, but it's still not a great defense. It's not historically bad, but it's still not above average. So I think that the Broncos can move the ball. The Broncos defense also is kind of built to use the scheme that's been giving the chiefs issues,

you know, two deep safeties and they have two really good safeties, make them work down the field, hold them to field goals in the red zone. Broncos, by the way, led the NFL and Redso defense in 2019, led the Red Zone defense in 2020, first team in NFL history to lead them back-to-back years. their top 10 again this year. So I think that they can take away the deep play. Chiefs still trying to figure out how to make that work. And the Chiefs just because of the defense,

because the offense isn't firing as much as it was, they've been an awful favor lately. 7 and 15 is a favorite the last two years. 2 and 13 against the spread as a favorite over a field goal in their last 15 games is a favorite over three or more. And yeah, I think this is just too many points for a divisional game this late in the season for a desperate Denver team that I think has the personal defense and is playing well enough on offense.

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and make every moment matter more because you get paid. New to Fandual Sportsbook, sign up today with the promo code Colin to also receive a risk-free bet of $1,000. That's promo code Colin so they know I sent you. 21 and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Michigan, New Jersey, Tennessee, Virginia or West Virginia. Refund issued as non-witrawable site credit that expires in seven days. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged.

It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

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Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking.

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I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history.

Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking. Trip Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase

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Okay, let's go a little bonus action here. I mean, the game of the week by far, I mean, it's got potential on paper to be one of the games of the year. Patriots Bills at Buffalo. It just doesn't get much bigger. You know, this has got to be one of the bigger games. I mean, non-playoff game might be the biggest game Sean McDermott's ever had as a head coach. He's obviously as a shorter tenure than some.

But this thing's huge. Honestly, I don't have much of a feel for this thing at all. What angle you going with and who do you like? Yeah, I think, I mean, I had to take the bills. It got down to two and a half. It got down under a field goal. And I had to take that. Look, the loss of, I still have the bills rated a couple points higher than the Steelers throwing home field.

Throwing the fact that they had a couple extra days of preparation here for a really good coaching staff. Remember, they played on Thanksgiving. They did lose Trey White, which is really going to hurt over the long term when they play, say, a, you know, Titans with a healthy receiving corps or chiefs. You know, some of these more elite passing offenses downfield in the playoffs because Trey White took away an elite receiver one side of the field. you could disguise your coverages more. You can roll your safety to the other side. I don't think his loss is going to be as big this game. One, it's not like the Patriots are throwing.

Mac Jones is playing really well. But they're not chucking the ball down the field. Also, there's going to be 25 mile an hour wins. So, you know, the weather is going to really prevent Mac Jones, who doesn't really throw a sharp ball. Like, he's not, he's not winging. It's got a little float to its. I don't know if he's going to be as effective this week in his first game.

I think maybe ever. We've seen him and win. So we'll see how that. works out. He's, but he's playing really well. I do think that the Patriots defense is a bit overrated in the market right now. Look, look, they played the Titans last week with no Henry and zero receivers. Zero. I mean, their entire offense was out. The week before they play a dreadful Falcons team, Calvin Ridley's out. Yeah, they played the Browns with a hurt Baker Mayfield, that Brown's offense also a lot of injuries at the time. Week before that, they play the

Panthers and Sam Darnel. So, I mean, this defense, which is, look, awesome all year, has really benefited from, you know, a lot of injuries against opponents over the past month or so. And then if you go before then, their wins that came over with the Jets twice, the Texans. Like, so I think that they're a bit overvalued in the market. The bills, I still think are a better team right now. And, you know, they're going to get their tackle back, Spencer Brown. They're going to get star back in the middle of the defensive line.

That's huge. on both ends. I think the bills under three has value should be an outstanding game though and I wouldn't, if you wanted to tease the Patriots up, I also think that they're a good teaser option teasing through seven. Total is crashing down because of the weather down to like

I think 43 now, but I think the bills find a way to get it done. And then we'll see this matchup again in Foxborough, which could decide the division in a few weeks. Okay, I was going to let you get out of here, but I see we're wearing the Alabama shirt and we usually put this out Saturday morning. So you got some hours if you're listening to this to bet.

I mean, it does, listen, obviously, I mean, it's hard to disagree Georgia being a big favorite, but do you like Nick Saban getting a touchdown almost? I mean, that's, that you could argue that's pretty good value. How often is Nick Saban got a plus six something next to his name? Yeah, I just grabbed the shirt, by the way. I have thousands of college shirts, not thousands, but a lot.

So I'm not an Alabama fan, full disclosure. But yeah, I mean, Sabin catching points. They've been favored in 64 straight games and, excuse me, 94 straight games. I think they've been favored in 164, the last 165. He's only been caught five. He's only been an underdog five times since 2008. He won four of the five outright. Wait, how many games did you say straight he's been favored in?

140 something. No, 94 straight. 94 straight. Yeah, so Alabama. This would be the first time they're an underdog in 93 games. they've been favored in 164 of their past 165 games. That has only been an underdog five previous time since 2008 when Saban arrived. They've won four of the previous five.

2015, they're plus one and a half against Georgia. They won 38 to 10. 2009, they were plus four and a half against Florida. They won 32 to 13. The Tebow team and they kicked his ass. Yeah. 2008, Bama plus 10. This is the 2018.

Remember 2007 they lost at home to I think like the Louisiana. Yeah, Liza Ademander O or Lott Fian. 2008, they lost to Florida by 11. They were 10 point dogs. 2008, they were plus six and a half to Georgia. They won by 11. 2008, they were plus four against Clemson. They won by 24.

So, I mean, you're talking once since 2010 as an underdog against Georgia. they want it's just shocking so yeah i mean if you look at a lot of the numbers it says that georgia should be if you throw up priors like it should georgia should be like an eight nine that's how dominant they've been but they haven't really this is a badmeteen that can match them talent wise coaching's the great equalizer it these two coaches are obviously really familiar with each other know how to attack each other look if you get seven because this line's been like hanging out of six and a half uh it's going to be hard to pass up taking Sabin in this spot and all the talent that Alabama has,

even though they've underperformed in Georgia has been extremely dominant. And Alabama has to throw everything at them this week. Maybe Georgia, yeah, it's like, all right, we don't have to win by much. Maybe we hold a couple things back. We're going to the college football playoff eventually. I mean, no matter what. So, you know, Alabama has to win this game to get in. So maybe there's an edge there.

I do think Georgia's not like Georgia's not going to care. But, yeah, seven points with Say, haven, it's hard to pass out. Well, appreciate you, Stucky. Have a good weekend, betting. Just make some money, baby. Absolutely. Good luck. Wait a bro.

The volume. Get right to the romance and find the way to wow this valentines with 1,800flowers.com. From classic roses and bouquets to decadent chocolate-covered berries, gourmet treats, and more. Surprise your Valentine with 1-800flowers.com. Right now, get the 18-stem enchanted rose medley for 30, or upgrade to 24 red roses for $10 more. Go to 1,800flowers.com slash tune in. That's 1,800flowers.com slash tune in.

Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere,

but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a source? to the armor. It signals to the world that you not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to, listen to learn the hard way on the IHare radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the

biology of ton-tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to Stuff to Bole your mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.