The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - Middlekauff's 3 for the $$$ Week 16 NFL Picks

Episode Date: December 26, 2021

John runs his top 3 Week 16 NFL games - and Bonus Pick - by Action Network sharp Stuckey to see if there's professional agreement or disagreement! Lock in.Follow John and The Volume on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to Humor Me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. In 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J.

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A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but the show. celebrated. So let's get to it.

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That's 1,800flowers.com slash tune in. Here with my main man, Stucky, on Christmas, if you're listening to this on Saturday, but we're not recording this on Christmas, but you can find him every week. Action Network podcast, Thursday mornings, comes out. You can also find him every single week here. So Stucky, Merry Christmas. Happy New Year, happy holidays. Happy gambling.

Same to you, brother. Let's find some winners. How are you doing? Doing well, man. It's funny. The holidays, like Thanksgiving and Christmas, they're not really like holiday weeks for me. But at least Christmas this year falls on a Saturday. Like Thanksgiving on Thursday, it's like the same.

It's still football. I still got to prep for football. I can't. So, yeah, I'll be able to. I'm going to go up and see some family in Philadelphia, fly out late tomorrow afternoon, and hopefully watch some winners this weekend. I looked up at the TV.

It would have been Wednesday night, and I saw Kentucky was just beating the living piss out of, was it Western Kentucky? Yeah, they're playing well. The last guy. They crushed North Carolina last weekend, so a lot of excitement here in Lexington over them. Were you at the bar on Wednesday night?

Was it back? No, I can't, like, I can't go out during the weekend. days during football season. And it's just like I go crazy on Saturdays and then grind during the week. That's your day. Yeah, that's my day. Okay, well, you had a good week last week. You know, we were scuffling a little bit, but the Colts covered.

Tampa Bay Saints under hit pretty well. We had talked about a bunch of games, but I know the one that the T's on Pittsburgh and Philly, that bad boy hit. So 21, 23, and 1. We have a pretty interesting slate this week, obviously a couple games on Saturday, which was the case last week, and then it only turned out to be the one game. So you never say never, but it feels pretty confident that those two games are going to happen. Let's start, I guess, on Saturday, which on paper is probably one of the better games of the week

and just has massive playoff implications. I mean, the Cardinals, again, December falling apart, man. and the Colts, another season, start slow, then get hot. I like the Colts in this spot. I just saw, you know, if you're looking on FanDuel, promo code Colin, it's a pickum. It started at minus one. The line keeps shifting toward Indy. I know you don't really love the Colts this weekend.

Hit me up with that. Yeah, look, I mean, if this line was what it was projected at Colts, the lookout line for this game before last week's results was, Arizona minus four and a half. Then obviously you have Arizona go lay an egg in Detroit. And then Indianapolis beats New England national television. So you get this huge line adjustment this late in the year. And I'm not a huge fan of this Arizona team.

But I show value in the sign. There's a couple things I like about this matchup. But first, it's just your classic buy, low, sell high spot in the NFL. Rare to get this late in the year. But I think for how public. both of those games were last week, like how everyone saw the Cardinals losing, everyone saw the Colts beat the Patriots. I mean, if you look historically since 2003, teams coming off a loss as a favorite that didn't cover

by at least 24 points, which the Cardinals didn't do, 106, 62 and 2 against the spread, that's 63%. When that team has a winning percentage over 50%, 52 and 24 against the spread, that's 68%. And, you know, if it's week 14 or later, 81%, 17 and 4 against the spread. And when that team that they lost to had a losing record the previous week, 25 and 9 against a spread. That just shows you, you know, the nature of buying low and selling high in the NFL. The Colts, I think, do have some regression coming their way in the turnover department. I mean, Wents is just begging to throw picks.

If you look at some of his turnover worthy throw numbers compared to the actual amount of interceptions that he has, he's playing better than I expected in the preseason, but there's some regression coming to turnover department. They've also been very fortunate in fumble recoveries. And, you know, there's a couple things I like about the matchup for, Jonathan Taylor's going to get his. Like Arizona is not a great run day, especially after JJ Watt went down.

Taylor's having a historically great year, averaging 5.8 yards per carry, just elite numbers across the board. I could go on and on. But he's going to get his against almost everybody. What I like about the, what I like about this matchup is for the Arizona. offense. The Colts get no pressure. They have the third lowest pressure rate, the lowest

quarterback hurry rate. And they play a ton of zone on the back end. Murray, one of the best zone quarterbacks in the NFL, should have all day to operate in the pocket to either utilize his legs, weight. So receivers come open against that Colts zone. So I think it's a really favorable matchup for the Arizona offense, which has just been scuffling lately in the red zone with turnovers, but Colts defense is bottom five in the red zone this year. So I think this is a good bounce back spot for Arizona. I'm not high on them long term. I think the Colts are very dangerous team in the AFC and can certainly make a run.

They're built to make a deep run in the playoffs on the back of Jonathan Taylor. They're very well coached. But I think that this is a really good by-low spot on Arizona. Probably the last time I will bet on them this year. year. Okay, let's go to the NFC South. Tampa just, I mean, the injuries are pretty, I mean, losing Godwin, who had 98 catches, and clearly is one of their best players, is pretty devastating. Fournette, who's had a really good season, is injured. You know, Brady, listen, we all love respect and hold him to the highest regard, but he's 44 years old. I mean, part of the reason that he went

to that team was they were stacked. And you start losing. I mean, Evans kind of feels, and again, you won't mean anyone that doesn't like Mike Evans, the player, but he kind of has a Julio Jones field to him right now. He just can't stay on the field. You know, even when he plays in games, he comes out of games. I don't know. I mean, I'm not selling all my buck stock, but I have red flagged the team. You know, I mean, their secondary has been, you know, injured all season long, and now their wide receivers are all hurt.

But the Panthers, I think I saw a rule said yesterday he's going to play two-quarter, Cam and now that Sam Darnel is healthy enough to play. But 10 points is a lot for a team that just clearly is scuffling a little bit. And the Panthers defense can be feisty. That seems like a lot of points for a team that's just missing. And now depending on Antonio Brown, who it's not like he was just suspended healthy. I mean, he was injured, right? He was on crutches.

So I know B.A. said that he's doing well, but we haven't seen him play even before the suspension in a long time. So they have a lot of question marks offensively. I guess I'd probably take Carolina in the points, even though I do not like Carolina at all. Yeah, I mean, I hate this, honestly, but I think it's $24, especially in a game with a total of 43. So, you know, I took the Panthers here catching 10. This is basically their Super Bowl, right? Disappointing year.

They lost a bunch of games in a row. Now they played the defending champs at home. This is it for them. I mean, there's nothing else to look forward to. So I'm sure you get a maximum effort. You get whatever they have in the playbook. And Brady, and look, I don't think Mike Evans, I assume is not playing. they would be really foolish to play them with a hamstring injury.

Four net, probably not either, right? That's why they signed Levi-on-Dell. Yep, Fernette's out. You have Levante David, one of their best linebackers, is out. I mean, this team is extremely banged up. And you just can't play Mike Evans here with a hamstring injury. You can't let that linger after you've already lost Godwin. Do you agree that this version, if this version of the team played a playoff game this week,

like if this was the playoffs, they would be in major trouble? Yep. Yeah, I mean, especially if you play a team that can generate pressure, and, you know, play man. That's what the Carolina does. They're number one in the league in pressure rates. Right now, Tom Brady's kryptonite, going back to, you know,

the teams that used to give them trouble in the playoffs were the old Ravens teams, when they could generate pressure with their front four, play man on the tight man on the outside. He used to dominate the Steelers over that same frame. They would always play zone. And that's why the states have given them a lot of trouble.

They can get pressure with their front four, and then they could play tight man on the outside. So now, you know, you take away, you take away Fernette, you take away God when you take away Evans. This looks like, and you saw Brady last week, it looked like the Brady at the end of the Patriots, right? Like when he was like, what does Brady have left? And really it was just because he had a lack of weapons on the outside. So I think this Panthers defense, which top five in the NFL guarding tight ends,

you really just have to worry about gronk. And then Antonio Brown, if he's healthy, and you got Stefan Gilmore for him. So, and you're going to be able to generate pressure on Brady. So I think the bucks are going to struggle to score points. And in a really low scoring game, you just have to hope Carolina gets to, you know, 10 to 13. But I just think this is way too many points here. And Brady under pressure this year has been really bad. 28th and adjusted completion percentage, 24th in yards per temp when he's under pressure.

Now, a lot of the times he's not, but you're playing a Panthers team that generates pressure at the highest rate in the NFL. And yes, Brady off of a loss. He's dominant. He's 42 and 16 against the spread in his career off a loss at 72%. But as a double digit, as a favorite of seven or more in this spot, he's only 11 and 12. So it's a different story just going out and winning the game or covering as an underdog. I think this is too many points in a divisional game with a low total. And yeah, I think that this Bucks team is in a lot of trouble with their current state.

injuries on defense and now your key weapons. That was your strength. You had one of the best, if not the best wide receiver rooms in the entire NFL. So it's, you got to hold your nose but I took the points with Carolina. Okay.

Probably looked like one of the better games to start the season, but then Cleveland has just, you know, underwhelmed. They obviously didn't play good, the majority of the season. And then that game on I don't even, what was it, Monday afternoon, night, depending on where you live. They just had a COVID problem and could not overcome it, even though Nick Mullins played

okay, actually played pretty good relative to him. But Miles Garrett, I would imagine, you know, I haven't seen the latest on his injury update, but even if he is a go, like he's not going to be a shell of himself. The Packers are humming. I don't know. That's a seven and a half. I get it's a lot of points. I probably would be a stay away from me. But if I was going to bet, I think I'd have to take the Packers. I just think the Cleveland's. and Chambles. How about you? Yeah, I took the seven and a half here reluctantly. I think Garrett's going to give it a go how effective he is remains to be seen.

He's definitely not going to be 100%. You'll have to see if Clowny tests into. That's another big big thing to watch because Rogers, just like Brady, if you can get pressure on him, he's vulnerable right now. And the Packers, they have a lot of issues on offense right now because, you know, you got a lot of Scanling, just one on the COVID list. You just lost Billy Turner. Bakhtiari's not playing.

this week. You already lost Elkton Jenkins. You lost your center, Josh Myers. You're basically down to one original starter on the offensive line. So I'm hoping that either Garrett or Clowney can go to generate pressure on riders. Rodgers with a clean pocket this year, 24 touchdowns, one interception quarterback grading of 123. Next highest, I think, is like at 109. So he's just been completely dominant. So the Browns have to be able to generate some pressure here. But I think this Packers defense has been overperforming. You know, I'll lose Kenny Clark to the COVID list. The Browns should be able to run the ball here.

And, you know, in a December game against the defense that ranks 25th after adjusting for opponent and schedule against the run, they're still extremely soft. That's what Cleveland wants to do. Should have everyone back on offense off the COVID list. You should have Stefansky back as well. And, you know, I think that the Browns can control the clock here, move the ball in the ground. And when the Packers get a lead, they're not this team that blows out a lot of opponents by 21. They start to play really soft, conservative. They let a lot of teams in the back door.

And you saw it last week with Tyler Huntley when they were up 14 and they almost gave up that lead, if not for a two point conversion miss. So this is the Brown storm. They went out. They're going to the playoffs. So I think that, you know, the Brown's getting all their offensive players back, a team that wants to run the ball against the defense that I think has been overperforming and has shown some cracks of late. I think seven and a half is too many. If this was six and a half, I wouldn't take it. But I think that there's an opportunity for a back door here.

I think that, you know, Green Bay is, they've been running pretty well in a number of different departments, red zone, some turnover. So, like, they have a little bit of regression coming. So I just think that seven and a half in a game I made five is too many. And look, like, when you have to look, When you have to look at the body of work for the Browns, you have to... Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged.

It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.

And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream,

this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs?

Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down,

and try to make sense of how we survived it. including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 was big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack, so I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now, so...

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Keep in mind that you got to throw out last week's game. They had a number of weather games with a lot of wind at home. Their backs were hurt for a number of games. They were playing with a crippled Mayfield. So they've had a lot of just odd games that are skewing some of their metrics. This is still a team that should have won in Kansas City, should have won on the road against the Chargers, just a couple fluke plays late.

They're in a lot of these games. Against Baltimore, they probably should have won that game. So I'll take them with seven and a half. I'm counting on their run game that really get going here. Can I tell you about my friends at Shopify? It's the sound of another sale on Shopify, the all-in-one commerce platform to start run and grow your business. Shopify gives entrepreneurs the resources once reserved for big business,

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Brought to you by Nidza and the Ad Council. Okay, my bonus is going to be, I'm going to kind of combine two games because the bills at the Patriots and the Ravens at the Bengals, you know, I mean, both these two teams need to win to get in as a wild card, right? I mean, I guess if the Ravens win, they could still win the division, but the bills, you know, have to win this game. they're both underdogs, they're both on the road. If you had to place a massive bet,

which road underdog are you picking out of these two teams, which I think it's fair to say when the season started, I don't think anyone would have looked at you crazy if you had one of those two teams, at least in the AFC championship game, right? Yeah, I mean, I would probably go with Buffalo here. There's some questions on the offensive line with COVID. You want to see if they're left tackle and left guard are tests back in,

because that's big for their offensive line. But the Patriots are also dealing with some injuries as well. I think the bills are the better team overall. Patriots just at just so many fortunate results that were playing so many teams with injuries and weather. And you saw last week, I think a closer version to this Patriots, which is good, but not elite,

as some were hinting at over the past two weeks. The problem with the Ravens, and look, the last time I faded the Ravens was two weeks ago, and the Browns were minus two and a half, and the Browns were up 21, the 1 by 2. So maybe that happens again. But the problem with the Ravens is, and I'm a Ravens fan, is their defense right now as in Chambles. I mean, on the defensive line, you have, you know, Brandon Williams and Clayas Campbell might not play.

And that's huge for their run defense. But more importantly, their secondary is, I mean, you have zero starters left from your original, which was a strength of the team. And now you got Tavon Young, your slot in concussion protocol. Jimmy Smith is still banged up. I mean, you're down to like seventh and eighth string corners. And I mean, the Browns, all they did in Cleveland, I mean, they went up by, they went up by 21, just started out here. There was PI, P.I. P.I. Riders did whatever he wanted. I don't see how Burrow and these receivers don't just carve up the Ravens secondary, like they did earlier this season, when the Ravens were a lot healthier with Marlon Humphrey, an all-pro corner. And if you look at some of the advanced metrics, Joe Barrow, number one in the NFL this year against man defense, number one in the,

the NFL against the blitz. And that's what the Ravens do. They blitz and they play a lot of man on the outside. One of the reasons why Burroughs shredded in Baltimore is he's very good against the blitz. He's very good against man coverage. Now, there's a big coaching this match here. And like, what's Harbaugh going to come up with? He still don't know if Lamar Jackson is going to go.

But if even he goes, he's, you know, he's not going to be 100%. Now, Tyler Huntley's looked great. But a lot of it has been in garbage time. You have some tape on him now. I mean, he's getting rid of the ball quick. And this is what these teams have to adjust to. I mean, Lamar Jackson's bottom five in the NFL in time to release. And Tyler Huntley so far has been top five.

So he's gone first read and pretty much, hey, let me throw it to Mark Andrews, which is smart. Mark Andrews and then we take shots to Brown. But, you know, teams are now adjusting to our, we saw what Lamar did, and now we have some tape on Huntley. So I'm not sure he'll be as effective as he's been. So I think the Bengals get this win. And then the Raven season will pretty much, they host the Steelers, the end, the closes season at home will probably win that game. It'll come down the next week at home against the Rams.

I assume they rest Lamar this week based on everything that I'm seeing and he's not practicing. So the Raven season won't be over. But the Bengals will probably win the division by winning this game because they'll sweep the regular season. So, yeah, I would go with the bills because I just don't, there's a lot of matchup issues for the Ravens this weekend. I guess Pittsburgh wouldn't totally be dead, right? If the chiefs have just a disaster COVID situation, all of a sudden they play like their backups, you know, at every position.

Then all of a sudden the Steelers win and they'd be what, 8, 6 and 1? You'd be like, holy hell, these guys are alive. Yeah. Yeah, Steelers are just finding a way to, I mean, last week, I don't know, they went 180 total yards. So, yeah, if they could find a way to beat the Chiefs, and we've seen Tom will do this. Then they host the Browns, and then they close up.

up the season at the Ravens, they wouldn't be dead somehow. Well, Kyle Shanahan, they asked him what he thought of the Titans. He's like, well, I just watched them game against the Steelers and they worked them, but somehow they lost because they had three turnovers in the second half. And, you know, they weren't scoring touchdowns, but the Titans were moving the ball with the Steelers now have won multiple games where if you, I watch some of their games after the fact, so I know they win. Yet when I watch it on game pass, they have three points like midway through the third quarter.

they're down several scores. I'm like, how do they win this game? And then all of a sudden, they just pull plays out of their ass. They get defensive linemen causing picks. They get fumbles. I mean, they do some crazy shit. Now, they don't get blown out. So they'll always be like, you know, it'll be 14 to 3 instead of 28 to 3.

That helps, right? They would not be able to come back if their defense just didn't keep them somewhat in game. So that they deserve credit for that. They're definitely a physical team. But they have won so many games where if you, If you watch it after the fact, it's hard to get into your brain. Like, they're going to win this game because the ball doesn't go anywhere on offense for a while. Yeah, I think there's seven, one and one in one possession games this year.

They've won. They tied the lines in overtime. They beat the Seahawks in overtime. Maybe that tie is going to end up getting into the playoffs. Who knows? But, yeah, they've been extremely fortunate in these close games. And, yeah, they've shown. tracks. I mean, their run defense has been really bad. I mean, really poor this year.

So, but yeah, I mean, now the chiefs are dealing with COVID and that's the wild card of this year. It's like you got a matchup where you think you might not win. And then all of a sudden, the other team gets COVID. And all of a sudden, you have a chance to win. And who knows who else gets it in any given week. So hopefully the NFL with these changes to the protocols, we can avoid this mess in the playoffs because it's not fun for anyone. And it makes it extremely difficult to handicap these games. Yeah, it really does. Well, Stucky, have a safe flight back to your family. Have a Merry Christmas.

Happy holidays. And we'll talk, I guess, next week before New Year's Eve. And we'll have to talk a little bit about these, hopefully, the two college football playoff games. Yep. But you never know. I mean, you got a little wild card there too, right? National Championship via forfeit is on the day.

If we riot, if that happens, we riot. Yep. Okay, bro. Take it easy. Yep. Happy holidays. See it. The volume.

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To order today, visit 1-800flowers.com slash tune-in. That's 1-800flowers.com slash tune-in. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. Help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement

to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Cliford show

on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast, And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. On The Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. I mean, it was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

This is an IHeart podcast, guaranteed human.