The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - Middlekauff's 3 for the $$$ Week 17 NFL Picks

Episode Date: January 2, 2022

John runs his top 3 Week 17 NFL games - and Ohio State/Utah Rose Bowl pick - by Action Network sharp Stuckey to see if there's professional agreement or disagreement! Lock in.Follow John and The Volume on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The volume. This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to Humor Me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Using your Aspiration Zero credit card helps fight climate change. It's true. See, Aspiration Zero plants a tree each time you make a purchase. And tree planting is one of the most effective ways to combat global warming. Track your progress in the app and earn 1% cash back each month you reach Carbon Zero. Aspiration Zero. One card, zero carbon footprint. Learn more at aspiration.com. The Aspiration 10 MasterCard is issued by Beneficial State Bank Pursuant to License by MasterC International Incorporated.

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and I think around the country, the Rose Bowl would be the most famous bowl. You know, this, I kind of like Utah in this game. Obviously, Ohio State, you know, it's just one of those situations where you're kind of betting on what team has more to play for. Obviously, Utah is the first time ever in this game. We've seen Whittingham in this spot before when he just has more to gain than like, what does Ohio State have to gain or lose? None of it matters. All their guys are opting out.

Do you think I'm overreacting to Utah plus four? But, I mean, I like them to win the game. Same. I have a money line and plus six, plus four. Look, I mean, in Bowles, you have to cap motivation. By the way, big bets on campus. That's my college football and basketball podcast. If you want to check that out also.

Check out that too, big bets on campus. But, yeah, Utah, look, in Bowles, you got a handicap motivation here. Ohio State of Dreams of going to the college football playoff. And, you know, this is just another bowl for them. Utah, this first time they're ever in the Rose Bowl. And guess where it is out on the West Coast? Did you see that Pac-12 title game? You better believe that this is going to be a home game for Utah.

I don't think many Ohio State fans are traveling out to the West Coast for a roseball. Six and a half hour drive from Salt Lake City to Los Angeles. Yeah, first ever Rose Bowl. You better believe there's going to be a lot of Utah fans there. But, yeah, from a motivation standpoint, it's all right, let's take a look at Utah. They had about five or six guys that declared for the NFL draft. You know, Kobe, Pledger, Tufua, go on and on. Guess what?

All of them came out and said, playing in the bowl. Their center. Ohio State, you know, you have Alave, Wilson, they're starting left tackle. They're starting to, they all opted out. They all declare for the NFL draft, and they're opting out of the bowl. And that tells you all you need to know about the motivation angle here. And I actually think it's a decent matchup for Utah. Ohio State gives up explosive runs and they allow you to efficiently pass against them.

That's exactly what Utah's offense is. And this offense has been rolling since Cam Rising took over. There's going to be issues with Ohio State, especially early on with, all right, we have new receivers in there. Obviously, they have five-star kids. But, you know, you have a reshuffled offensive line. And you've got to get all that working against a really formidable Utah defense. And who knows that even Ohio State shows up. They could lay a massive egg here, as you sometimes see in both.

So, yeah, I think Utah's very live. And I think that they're, you know, if you look at their body of work since Rising took over, this is one of the, you know, six or seven best teams in the country. Little similarities in terms of motivation last year was a Cincinnati. They played Georgia in the ball game. And Georgia had a lot of down. Yeah, same feel. Yeah.

It's just their Super Bowl. You know, it's hard to, you can't manufacture of motivation. And that clearly shows up in these non-playoff bowl games. Yeah, and then you're not going to have your left tackle. You're not going to have your best D tackle. You're not going to have your two-star receivers. There could be first-round draft picks. That's sort of big.

And who knows who else? You know, I've just mentioned the big ones. The other day, Ohio State of Practice, there was only 56 scholarship player spotted. There was three or four other defensive starters that weren't at practice, a number of other depth guys. So, you know, this is going to be one of those situations. You see this with bowls all the time that all of a sudden you see, you know, right before kick. It's like, all right, well, these guys also opted out and these guys aren't playing. So, yeah, I think it's Utah all the way there.

Okay, let's transition to the National Football League. And we got a little rematch. It felt like this game was five days ago. And it wasn't even that much longer ago. The football team who struggled a little bit on that, was it Tuesday? Yeah, they played Tuesday. Then they played the Cowboys on Sunday night football. And one of the worst losses you'll ever see.

But they get the Eagles again. Like I said, seven, eight days. later. You seems like maybe the football team and Ron Rivera a little bit in this game. I do. I think that this is a massive market overreaction to what we've seen lately. And you know, eventually these two teams are about to play a couple weeks ago and they ended up playing after some COVID issues. That line opened up as Eagles. The look at line was Eagles minus two and a half. And then it reopened a minus three after McCorn's concussion. And then obviously went up to like 10 after the whole Washington team was out. It was Eagles minus three at home. Now your Eagles are

Lank three and a half on the road here. Not much difference at home field advantage of divisional game. But what have the Eagles done since, right? You know, obviously at the downgrade, you have the downgrade Washington a bit for last weekend. It was obviously an embarrassing loss. But who have the Eagles beat? I mean, you're talking about Garrett Gilbert.

You're talking about the Jets. You're talking about Jake Fromm. So, I mean, what has really happened to all of a sudden make me think that the Eagles are a completely different. team than what we've seen. And this is an Eagles team this year, here are their wins. Falcons, Panthers, lions, Broncos, Saints with Simeon, Jets,

Washington with Gilbert, and Giants with Fromm. That's it. So I think you get Washington's best effort here. They could, they still a shot at the playoffs, by the way. I mean, they win and the Saints just split their final team. Who does? The football team is still alive? Believe it or not. And, you know, the, but I think mainly, you know, it's an out,

very outside shot. But I think that they're going to get up here mainly to spoil Eagle season. It's a divisional game. These teams are going to get up for this game. And you'll get Washington's best effort after getting completely embarrassed last week. And just to put numbers to that, teams after not covering by 28 or more points in the previous week, since 2003 in the NFL are 78, 46, and 5 against the spread. That's 63%. Just speaks to the by-low, sell-high nature of the NFL.

NFL market, you see a team just get absolutely obliterated. Who wants to back them? So I think you're getting value here with getting the hook at home. So give me Washington against an Eagles team that doesn't beat anybody all year. Well, I just had to, I just had to check because at 34 to 10, you know, that final score, little deceiving given that it was 3-3 at halftime against the Giants. Right. It's just an Eagles team that before this run of beating the Jets and then Giants with Fromm and Washington with Gilbert, they lost to the Giants. I mean, they lost at New York. So they haven't really done anything all year.

Washington should be getting most of their players back off the COVID list. So it should be close to a full-strength team here for whoever's not on IR. So, yeah, I think there's a lot of value here with Washington catching three and a half at home. Well, one of my early bets this week, obviously last week he played a weird game. He was pretty terrible in Matt Stafford. But with Dallas potentially, I think they play in the morning. if they beat Arizona, the Rams will be playing to win the NFC West. They could clinch it because they'd have a two-game lead with one game remaining.

And the Ravens, who you, I got to give you credit, talked me out of last week against the Bengals because I was going to hammer them. Thank God I did not. But I do like the Rams in this situation. What about you? No, I'm on. I played some Ravens plus four here. I like them down to three and a half.

You should be getting a lot of pieces back. One of the reasons I hated the Ravens, and I've been fading them the last couple of weeks. It's my team. But one of the reasons that I didn't like them last week, because they had no secondary left. And that was just a disaster. They blitz. They blitz. They blitz.

That's not great against Joe Burrow. By the way, Joe Burrow is going to see another defensive. Fikes the blitz and plays a lot of man this week in Kansas City. But, you know, the Raven should be getting Jimmy Smith back this week. Chris Westry. You know, they got a bunch of guys that just came off the COVID list. Lamar Jackson's going to get shot up and start. We'll see how, you know, he's limping around our practice, but people don't realize he's going to get shot up and taped up.

we'll see how he can go, but Huntley is available. This is just a classic hardball spot. I mean, by the way, the Ravens have won, you know, lost four straight, the Rams have won four straight. There's second straight road game on the East Coast. And classic hardball spot where you have huge special teams edge. And believe it or not, you have an enormous coaching edge here. People think that McVeigh is like this real sharp.

And he's unbelievable play caller, schemer, head coach, awful with game management in fourth down decisions. We're the last five years actually the worst in the NFL in fourth down decisions. And Harbaal is obviously going to be much more aggressive and he is one of the sharpest in the NFL. But this is a, you know, a Ravens team in a classic hardball spot in front of a raucous home crowd. Now this is a bigger home field advantage than usual.

Second straight road game, it's a, you know, a non-conference game. You're not familiar with the environment. You're going to have some weather here for a West Coast team. And for whatever it's worth. Stafford against teams with winning records is 36% against the spread. Not some of that has to do with the Lions. But I think the Ravens play up here. I think you're going to get Lamar Jackson to start.

And he's practicing Wednesday. Huntley is available if needed. It'll be a much healthier Ravens team. This line, I don't think, should be over a field goal. So I'm taking the fore with the Ravens. Harbaal's been unbelievable as a dog in his career. So I'm signing with the Ravens. I think, mark my words.

Rams miss a couple field goals here. Tucker doesn't, and this game is decided by a field goal late. Really quick before, I know you're a big go-for-it guy, and I'm not opposed to it either. They're going for two at the end of the games to win it. Like, I'm for that. What is your stance on Brandon Staley? Was it the Thursday night game end of half? Instead of kicking the field goal, he went for it, got denied, and left up those three points, ended up obviously going to overtime.

Yeah, I mean, were you for it in that? No, I was not. And I had the chargers, what did I have the chargers in a, I took them live plus 14. So I didn't really care from a betting perspective. And I said, you can't go for this here. You got to take points. And one of the, one of the advantages of going for it inside the opponents five or three is that if you don't get it, they have to start at the three or five, right? And if you do it at the end of the half.

In the first quarter, third quarter or whatever. Yeah, if you do it at the end of the half, on the last play of the half, you're starting fresh in the second half. So you lose that entire advantage. Staley, for me, is way too aggressive. People always just say, the analytics say to go for it. You're the answer's always said. That's not the case. There's times when you should go for, times you should.

There's also just you have to have a feel for the game. There's certain matchup advantages and other things that you have to consider. Things when you go for two at the end of the game, all right. Harbaal even said it. He's like, we had no corners left. I didn't want to go to overtime. Or if you think you have a really good play. Or if you're the underdog, you don't want to go to.

There's many other things to consider. I think Staley's philosophy is just, he kind of backed himself into a corner early in the season. They were going for it a lot, and they kept getting it. And now he just goes for it all the time. I think he goes for it way too much. I completely disagree with that for that one. Okay, I'm glad you were on my side there.

Okay. Tennessee, who just, you know, I don't know how he does it, but Mike Vrable wins a lot of freaking games. The dolphins who have a little Eagles-ish, a rattle off a lot of wins against a lot of rando quarterbacks. But I give

Flores a lot of credit. They easily, I mean, honestly, they felt like a four-win team, you know, when they started like that. And he somehow got them potentially to eight, nine wins. Now he does finish with Tennessee and then, I think, New England next week, right? So this week, at Tennessee,

they're coming off that, them and the Niners coming off that little mini Thursday by the last Thursday night game of the year. Titans, minus three and a half. I still, you know, if AJ Brown's back, he just changes their team, as we saw last week. He just makes them, I mean, he's just such a,

he's a dominant fucking player. You know, I, I just kind of like the, the Dolphins defense. So I think I would probably, and I'm not a two-a-guy. I don't trust their offense, but the Titans are just, they win these crazy close games.

I feel like I would take the Dolphins plus three-and-half. How about you? No, I took the Titans, but you need to get a three or maybe a money line here. The total is like 40. So the hook is really important here. And I think that if this line is going to come down to three eventually, I think you'll see sharper money just taking the hook with Miami.

But I mean, you alluded to it. The Dolphins, after losing to Trevor Lawrence, and then they lost to Atlanta at home, they beat Tyrod Taylor, who's been awful this year, and his first came back, Lamar Jackson, there's an only good win. Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Cam Newton, Mike Glennon, and Ian Book. six of those quarterbacks aren't in the top 35 in the league right now. Some of them are a third string quality.

Some of them shouldn't even be in the league. Cam Newton, Joe Flacco, Glennon, Ian Book. So I don't believe in this offense offense at all. I think that everyone's going to be back for Tennessee. And Tennessee will have some success running the ball. You can run on Miami. And then most importantly, I think Jones and Brown will be back. And if you look at a lot of Tennessee's offense of metrics, really deflated because they haven't had it.

They haven't had Henry. They haven't had Brown. I mean, they're five in one when Brown and Jones are in the lineup together. How do you take advantage of this Miami defense? It's really aggressive. A lot of man on the outside. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.

Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered, competition.

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my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free iHeartRadio app, search Learn the Hardway, and listen now. Blitzing pressure, you got to have receivers on the outside that can win one-on-one matchups. You saw it, you know, early in the season, I mean, Buffalo, take a look, take a look at Buffalo's results over the last two years against Miami. They destroy them every time they play. I mean, early in the year, I think they won like 49-0-0. thing last year was just because they it's Allen

they have receivers on the outside they can win man battles you saw it with Tampa before against Miami and that's Jones and Brown should be back here and they can win these one-on-one matchups on the outside the Tennessee defense could hold its own here because Miami's offense is abysmal I mean it's just too

at checking it down I mean if it wasn't for a pick six on Monday night that I mean that game was yeah I mean their offensive line it's not all on too because they they don't have a running game and then their offense line is the worst in the NFL. I mean, it is just holding calls and letting up pressure. So you got to wait

for the three here, but I think Tennessee gets this done at home. This fluke run for Miami who's the first team NFL issued to win 7th straight and lose 7th straight in the same season comes to an end. Can I tell you about my friends at Shopify? It's the sound of another sale on Shopify, the

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Brought to you by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Administration for Children and Families and the Ad Council. Okay. The last one here before I get you out of here because I saw this game coming from a mile away. I remember the same matchup happened last year, but it was in Vegas and the Colts beat the shit out of the Raiders. Now, the Wentz situation, they changed the rules. It feels like he's going to play in this game. I love the Colts. I mean, I think they could win by 30 points in this game.

just a bad matchup for the Raiders who struggled to score against a good Colts defense. And just to me, the Colts are just in a completely different universe as a team. And the Raiders aren't terrible, but I think the Colts are just good. It's minus six and a half right now. I could see them winning by several touchdowns. How about you? Yeah, I think that it's Colter nothing. I mean, the big wild card is that is when it's going to play.

And you would think that he is, I mean, they changed the, so it basically comes down, they change the rules that if the doctor's clear him and he's not, doesn't show any symptoms. Right. So it's like, all right, well, go ahead in. So unless he's really sick, he's probably going to play. But if he end up having Sam Ellinger, it could be a problem because I assume the Raiders just completely load the box. The Raiders, you know, they play cover three 50 percent of snaps.

The next highest in the NFL is like 28 percent. I don't know what they're doing on defense. But the one thing that they do well is they don't give up a lot of explosive plays. They just have safety's way deep. But, yeah, I mean, you can run on them. and on the other side of the ball, their offense is just fading hard. I mean, they've scored,

since the by week in week eight, here's what they scored. 16, 14, 13, 36 in Dallas, thanks to Sean Hocular, who gave them about 30 points. 15, 9, 16, and 17. They've scored over 17 once

in the last eight games since the buy. That's stunning, and it was just all pass interference calls on Thanksgiving. So, yeah, I mean, this offense is just... And Waller, who's healthy now, went on the coach list. And he went on Wednesday. So it's a lot iffyer for him, and he's just huge to that offense. They just don't have the weapons on the outside.

What the only... And they don't have the offensive line. They're running game struggling. Their entire offense is explosive passplays, right? And a lot of it is car underthrowing it. You saw it in Dallas. And they just got to hit explosive passplays. And he's been good, given what he has to work with this year.

But Indianapolis, elite at... preventing an explosive pass place to play a lot of zone. And where Carr thrives against man, teams that blitz him and he's got to get rid of it. And he's going deep. That's not the Colts. They don't blitz. They're going to play a lot of zone. They don't give up explosive pass plays.

So, yeah, I don't think this is a great matchup for. How are they going to block Bucker? You know what I mean, they got. Yeah. It's you got to give credit. I mean, look, you got to give credit for the rate is what they've done. But the last two weeks to get back in the playoff positioning, they beat Nick Mullins, 16, 14.

And then they beat Drew Lodellon. Locke, 17, 13. You know, before that, they've lost almost everything except that Dallas fluky win. Other than that, they lost five in a row before those last two games against backup quarterback. So, yeah, I would agree with you. I think it's cold to nothing. You're probably getting them a little cheap here just with all the uncertainty around Wentz.

But I would think he's probably 80, 90 percent to go, just because the only, the only thing he has to clear is the doctor saying he's good and he's not showing symptoms. or he just can't be like really sick and then like incapable of playing. But yeah, I think that it's cult or nothing there. Lucky, thanks for your knowledge. Happy New Year. Thanks for your energy.

Thanks for your gambling. And happy New Year and let's make a little money. I'll talk to you next week. Absolutely. Have it going, brother. The volume. Get right to the romance and find the way to wow this Valentine's with 1800flowers.com.

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Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman, help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing.

human potential. Either way, the podcast Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds, I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.