The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - Middlekauff's 3 for the $$$ Week 18 NFL + Bama/Georgia CFP Title Game Picks

Episode Date: January 9, 2022

John runs his Bama/Georgia CFP Title Game pick and top 3 Week 18 NFL games by Action Network sharp Stuckey to see if there's professional agreement or disagreement! Lock in.Follow John and The Volume on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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But because it's the last week of the regular season, you know, it's exciting because the playoffs are around the corner. But you also look back and you go, God, that's a lot of football games not left, right? You know, here with my man Stucky, who, uh, been coming on all season long, making gambling picks of the Action Network. You can hear them every week, Thursday morning Action Network podcast. You also college podcast, right? Yeah. College basketball. What's it called?

Big bets on campus. college football and college basketball through March Madness. We'll be on. Okay, well, you had a big week last week. Ravens, cover. You had the Titans. That was an ass kicking. And the football team.

Did they cover? What was the first score of that game? They lost by four. Yeah, four and a half. So, yeah, I think it closed. The game closed at six because of some of the injury issues. Oh, yeah, yeah. With Washington and COVID.

But, yeah, it's, got one college game left, one regular season NFL. So, yeah, cherish the games. Cherish every one of your bets from here on now. Okay. I know the college game is after the NFL game, but I do think I've already have a bet on Nick Saban. I mean, he's still, I understand the first game, Bama looked, you know, pretty questionable all season long relative to their standard. Georgia was awesome. But then they played and Bama killed him. And now Bama is a two and a half point underdog and you can get them, you know, plus 120, depending on where you're looking on the money line, Fandual promo code, Colin. How do you not, the value betting on Nick Sabin a bit?

Kirby's never beat him. Yeah, I mean, I have a bunch of Georgia from last week. I took them plus 140 to win the national title. I made that price like plus one or five. I actually make Georgia, if you look at the season on numbers, I make them like a four and a half point favor. for what it's worth, a couple of people in some sports books out in Vegas and some legal books on offshore, every single person that I've talked to says every sharp account we have is bet Georgia under three. Everyone that I know that I trust that makes numbers makes this around four and a half five Georgia.

So like under three, we like Georgia. And I like Georgia for a couple of reasons. Now, you're going to come back with Sabin. You can't really argue with this. He's only been a Dunderdog twice since. 2010, both against Georgia. He won't by 17 and 28. But, you know, I mean, all year, I said to myself, this Alabama team is flawed. Their offensive line is flawed. Their coverage units are flawed. Like, it just was, they were so inconsistent. And Georgia was just dominant all year. And, you know,

they had a game where they lost Alabama. You have to remember that it is one game. Now, the Trump card is, it's saving in Alabama. But, you know, not, I think nine straight teams that have, There's been a rematch in a bowl, including a couple national championships. Nine straight times the team that lost the first meeting has won the rematch. That includes Alabama against LSU. They lost 9 to 6, I think it's 2011, and then they came back in 121-0. Happened to Florida, Florida State National Title in 96 as well. You know, you go back to Georgia, Georgia 2017, lost by 30 to Auburn, S-S-C championship game.

They kill them. So you have to remember that it is just one game. and when I look at Alabama this year, we've been over this, everyone knows that they have five one possession games, they ended up winning four to one. Meanwhile, Georgia won every single game besides that family game by 17 or more after their season opener. And it really should have been 24,

if not for Kentucky calling a timeout with one second to go and scoring a touchdown. They played four opponents, four common opponents. They played Florida, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Auburn. And Alabama was a, they both scored around 100. 150 points. Alabama allowed 115. Georgia allowed 34.

Georgia was a plus 112 in those four games. Alabama was plus 39. That's top tier SEC competition. From a matchup perspective, there is no METI this time. Who had 100 yards, seven catches, some key catches. And I think that Georgia, I went back and watched the game. The recipe all year, it's what LSU and Auburn did. Ellis you almost beat, they both almost beat Alabama.

They blitzed a lot. They played press band coverage. Georgia can do that, but for whatever, and they usually do play, man. For whatever reason, they played a lot of zone. They weren't blitzing. I don't know if they either, A, just wanted to try some new looks, probably knowing they played Bama again, or B, got too cute and overthought themselves and said, okay, Sabin knows us. Let's try to switch it up. I don't know what they, what the thinking was there, but I expected to play man.

bring a lot of bits. You don't have to worry about METCHI. You can keep a safety over top of Williams. So I expect the Georgia defense, which has been historically dominant all year, was once again last week, to show up here. And that's the key. If you believe that Georgia's defense, because Alabama is not going to be able to run the ball.

You don't want to get running on Georgia. But if you think that Georgia's defense can step up here, that's when Georgia's offense is successful, right? Because then you have to worry about the run. Bennett can throw with play action. We saw when Bennett had to try to throw from behind, when Alabama built that big lead, that's not what Stets and Bennett is going to have the most success.

So I think the Georgia defense shows up here. I think they end up winning this game. But your Trump card, I don't have a great rebuttal for it. Yeah, I mean, if he did switch up the defensive coverages, a little Belichickian because he was in the playoffs, he didn't need to win that game for the bigger picture. That's pretty genius. Now, we're going to find out because you could argue,

like you could have just knocked Alabama out of that game. Then you never have to even think about them, right? Yes, absolutely. Let's dive into the league, the national football league. Got some games on Saturday. They kind of bore me. Obviously, don't really matter. But this game's kind of intriguing.

Just because I heard a stat this week, which I guarantee you know, the Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014. Yeah. And they are, I mean, the Jags coming off of 50 to 10. I mean, they get embarrassed all the time this season. It's been an embarrassing season on and off the field. But 15 and a half points is a lot. The Colts, whether he practices or not, like we've seen him practice.

And then we saw last week he didn't practice. Carson Wentz can just, he's not exactly Aaron Rogers back there right now. 15 and a half is a lot of points. I couldn't bet this game just because I couldn't take the Jags, but I don't trust Wence to cover this. I know you're kind of fired up on, one of the sides here. Yeah, the Jags.

And we can throw my second pick in as well, the Falcons plus four and a half against the Saints because it's going to be under the same umbrella of reasoning. If you, the week eight, well, it's week 18, but week 17 almost every year when I bet the NFL, I always will have a couple teams that are eliminated, playing teams that need to win.

And there's two this week. And it's, you know, the Saints need to win to get in and they need help. And the Colts need to win to get in, or they need a lot of help. And they're playing teams that are eliminated, playing for nothing. And every single year,

because of the narrative, and who wants to play these dead teams, these teams that must win get inflated lines. Going back to 1990, over the last two weeks of the regular season, teams that are eliminated, playing teams that must win to get into the playoffs, those teams that are eliminated,

94, 56, and 4, against the spread, 63%. You see it every, I mean, let's just take a look at this Jaguars matchup. Last year, the Colts. Okay, say that percent. Say that percent it again? 63 percent over a sample size of about 150 games since 1990. 94, 56, and four.

Just take a look at this Colts Jaguars game. Last year. I bet they tend to be divisional games, too, so the team's comfortable with the opponent. And people think, like, it's the NFL. People are still playing for contracts. job is they're still going to show up and then they all these teams can also play looser you know these teams that have to win they come out they play a little tight and these teams that are dead it ends up being like their Super Bowl right these teams that are disappointing

year all right hey we can come out we'll come out and try to ruin this team season and you kind of get up for it divisional game you know they've been playing divisional games last week for the last i think 12 or 13 years last year then i could go countless examples i mean you go back to the, even the Patriots who needed to win to lock up the one seat in 2019, 20-point favorites against the Dolphins at home and they lose to a 4-12 Dolphins team. This is just, there's still NFL teams, but these lines are so inflated. Last year, the Colts went to Jacksonville, had to win to get into the playoffs, were 15.5 point favorites. Mike Lennon was starting for Jacksonville. The Colts ended up winning by 14, but it was a six that they didn't cover. It was a six-point game. Glennon

have the ball with four minutes to go in the fourth quarter. I mean, I could go riddle off countless examples here. So these lines are all just inflated. Do you think this game, the last week of the season, in this scenario, has some parallels to like a Monday night football game in December when you get a really shitty team? Sometimes they just, and they're playing a playoff team and they just play them really tight. And the spreads like 12, 15 points. And all of a sudden, the New York Giants are taking Tom Brady because it's a Super Bowl environment for these guys that have nothing to play for. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. But the way the league is, the non-guaranteed contracts, like you said, I bet a lot of guys on Jacksonville are going to be on other teams next year.

So you get evaluated. It's just the nature of the sport, you know? You just, you don't, you try. Yeah, no, they're still professional athletes. It's kind of like baseball. Like, yeah, you can still bad underdogs and like really bad underdogs when teams are out of it in August. Like, the starting pitcher is going out there and he's pitching for incentives. And God, it gets, these are at professional athletes.

They're still going to try. And there's like the intent. I love the intangibles of it. Like we can play looser. The other team is tight. And you're just getting an inflated line. Like I don't think this line should be over two touchdowns. And you're getting over two touchdowns at a couple extra points.

Same thing with the Falcons, right? And you're getting four and a half. I make this line like two, two and a half. This was a spread that was in New Orleans. When Atlanta already won in New Orleans earlier this year, the spread was six and a half. And Atlanta won. And now it's four and a half in Atlanta. So I just think that they're really inflated.

There's one exception to the rule where you have these teams, and it's really just over the past couple years, that might tank. And it's really sharp organizations rarely comes up. But the Eagles last year did it when Washington had a win. And they said, look, we want the draft position. The Browns this year, if the Bengals had to win this game, I think the Browns are tanking based on that Pittsburgh game last week.

And so maybe there's like this new tank element that comes into play. But for the most part, Like Jacksonville, they're either going to get the one or the two pick. They already have their quarterback. Falcons aren't tanking. Yeah, Falcons aren't tanking. And, you know, the Jags have an interim coach who's trying to. Beville wants to be the head coach there.

So I don't see either one of these teams tanking divisional game. Yeah, the Colts haven't won there since 2014. So I just think, again, it's ugly. Who wants to play these teams against teams that have to win? Well, the reason that you feel that way, and that's why a lot of times you're getting couple extra points in the market and the reason that 63% of the time, teams of this spot have covered. And there are countless, countless examples of these teams winning out right.

They expect chaos. There's been so many times. Maybe the 49ers back in 2006, I think, beat the Broncos to eliminate them. They were double-digit underdogs. I was at a game. And when Baltimore, all they had to do was beat the Bengals back in 2017. last game of the year, there were nine point favorites. And on the last play of the game,

Tyler Boyd caught a 50-yard touchdown pass from Andy Dalton on fourth and long, eliminated the Ravens and the bills went to the playoffs. It's the NFL. These things are going to happen. And both of these spreads, I think, are too high. Remember that video of the bills in that little, I think it was the opposing locker room and just Kyle Williams was crying. I remember a couple years, it might have been the year or two before I got hired with the Eagles.

they had a scenario where they had to win the final week and they needed three things to happen and all three things happened. I think like Jamarcus Russell beat like the Tampa Bay Buccaneer. You know, it's just you're right. I mean, it's just. They're pro. It is not, and it's not the NBA

where if you're playing the magic on the last week and you've got to get in, they don't even care. It's just football is a different animal. But there are dolphins. Dolphins last year, they went to Buffalo. All they had to do is win. Buffalo said we're going to sit all of our starters. Beat the shit out of them.

Buffalo won 50. to 26. All right, the college football championship is here to celebrate Fandall Sportsbook, hooking up new customers, 30 to one enhanced odds on either team to win. I like Bama minus the points. I'm taking Sabin and Bryce Young. Sign up at the Fandall Sportsbook. I mean, basically, five bucks can win you 150 bucks on either team to win.

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Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking. Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase

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I mean, it is win and get in for both teams. And the other with the Niners, it's they win. They're in. Let's start with the Sunday night football game. Chargers, Raiders. They played, was it Thursday night or Monday night earlier in the season? It might have been Thursday night. And the Chargers outplayed them.

They were up, I think, at one point in time, 21 nothing. Carr kind of brought them back, but it was really a pretty one-sided game. The Chargers, you know, I think even people with the Raiders would tell you off the record. Like, they have more talent on the team than the Raiders. But, like, it's, the Chargers should not be, to have a quarterback with 35 touchdowns and to be 9 and 7,

and with the Raiders, with the exact same roster, with the coach that got fired, with your first round star receiver that got, is going to jail. Another guy got, you know, cut, a first round pick, a corner. They just had a starting DB, get a Dewey. I mean, it's just, it's relentless. And I want to bet.

Like I think your head says bet the Chargers, but I just do not trust. I trust Herbert, but I don't trust the organization. I definitely just don't trust the coach and the defense. Yeah, I play the Chargersy reluctantly. It's, they're a team that is just, you don't ever feel confident backing their special teams too. They're always going to mess up on special teams. But I think it's just, look, I have to give a lot of credit to Carr for getting here. He's played exceptional, especially considering the deck that he's been dealt. I mean, he lost his whole entire

offensive line in the all season. They haven't ever run the ball. Waller's been hurt. You know, your receivers are now decimated and he's played really well. But the team overall has been extremely fortunate. I mean, there's six and two and one possession games, three and O in overtime. This is a team that was fading fast, and then they catch Nick Mullins and the COVID Browns. You know, then they catch Drew Locke and the Broncos, then they catch Wentz off COVID. It's a team that scored over 17 points twice in the last 10 weeks. One was that Cowboys game when they got all the PIs, and then the other was last week when they scored, I think, 20 or 23. The offense is just, it's just not there right now. The deep.

defense is really trending down. And I really, and look, they're not, they're not running the ball that well this year. I think they're 30th in EPA per rush. They're all lines sucks. Yeah, they're a line sucks. And that's how you just can, they can't bully the Chargers. They write up for, I think, 19 times for 43 yards when they played the first meeting. And that's the Chargers biggest weakness is that you can just control the clock.

You can run it at will on them, which I don't think the Raiders can do. And the other side of the ball, I just love the match up for, Herbert, who just torched them the first minute. He started that game 20 to 25 for 180 yards and three touchdowns. What does Herbert do? He shreds non-cover two zones. He's number one in the NFL and QBR against non-cover two zones. He's struggling a little bit with cover two looks, kind of like some of these

quarterbacks were back in like 2004. But the Raiders don't run any cover two. I mean, they're running, they run cover three. It's Gus Bradley 60% of the time. The next highest is like 30. My take on why some of those, like I think Mahomes, them sometimes the shell with a big arm quarterback because it really forces you to be

patient and that's where Brady and Manning will just dump dump. I think Mahomes and Herbert they just think like fuck it I'm going to rip it and then it just throws off the way they play. You know, far, you know, historically he throws a lot of picks. You start overthinking it. It's the right defense

to play against big arm quarterbacks because like most guys are not Brady Rogers and Manning that will just dump it off till the cows come home, you know? They'll crack. Yeah. And you have like cover three was, you know, that came in vogue with the whole Liger boom and the Pete Carroll tree. And now people have learned all the cover three beaters.

And, you know, now it's kind of like everything's cyclical. But Herbert has just been dominated teams that don't blitz and are running cover three this year. And he's so familiar with this particular cover three because Gus Bradley was with him as a defensive coordinator last year. So I don't see how this Raider is secondary. which has been trending down, is going to get many stops. I like the matchup for the Chargers.

The scary part is they're the Chargers. So the other thing is with this bet, however unlikely it is, but you have to remember that there is chaos in the last week of the NFL almost every year, that if somehow the Jaguars pull off the upset against the Colts, and then if the, I think if the Ravens win against the Steelers, the Raiders would clinch and win or lose win or lose so you then I mean this is not a part of why I bet it but just it's a it's a nugget out there I mean it's probably a 2% chance and then if that happens they probably sit a bunch of other guys and then the charges are playing you're saying because

they would know before Sunday night yeah yeah yeah then that's the NFL's nightmare scenario if the Raiders are playing for anything because their games on Saturday already stink now are the Jags going to beat the Colts probably not, but I've seen weirder. Like I said, the Dolphins is 18-point underdogs beat Brady in Foxborough in 2019 when he just needed to win to get the one seed. And then guess what? The Chiefs got the one seed and went to the Super Bowl. Do you remember the Titans, the Titans upset him right in the first round Brady? That was his last game ever as a Patriot.

Do you remember the line on that game? Would that have been like 10 points? seven and a half. So it wasn't outrageous. It wasn't like 12 or for you. Okay. You have very sound logic. That would be pretty nuts.

You're right. It is the NFL's by far nightmare scenario or something that Jacksonville pulls this crazy upset. And Ravens beating the Steelers. Isn't that crazy at all. Then all of a sudden, cars not playing in the game means nothing. Now, I do wonder,

I could see them trying, still playing him, trying to beat the Chargers. just to get momentum going in. But, you know, it's an interim coach who freaking, it's the Raiders, who knows. No, no. The other game, just given that, I mean, this team loses more than likely, I guess, like you said, I mean, Atlanta could beat the Saints.

It's not that big of an underdog, but they're playing at the same time. So the Niners and the Rams, Kyle's beat him five straight times. But more than likely, I mean, Jimmy said yesterday it feels like the web and his finger is ripping every time he grips the ball. I think it's fair to say he's not going to play. Trey Lance against the Chargers, or I mean, excuse me, against the Rams. I don't know. I'd struggle to bet on the Niners in this game. I took them plus six when it first came out. I still hits at four and a half now. I still like them. Now, there's a lot of, there's a couple concerning things here, mainly their defensive backs.

I mean, they only have one on the active roster right now. But I'm pretty sure. I'm, I think Mosley, going to be back. He just got designated off hour and he's probably their best corner right now. They have a lot of their debacks went on the COVID list on Tuesday, which means that as long as they don't have symptoms and the doctors clear them, by Sunday they'll play. And I'm assuming that from here on out, because the NFL changed the rule to five games, this is basically a playoff game for the 49ers. And with the playoff games coming up, you're going to see anyone that was tested that just needs to not have symptoms. It's going to end up playing. So I think that they'll have a number of defensive backs return here. And this is being, it was originally priced as if

this is a road game, but it's really not. I mean, San Francisco, different one, doesn't have to travel like LA. And there's probably going to be more San Francisco fans. I'll be there at this game. Yeah, you'll be there cheering on. And we can, we can have you go down and make a tackle. If Beckham's streaking down the field at the end for a cover. Smart. But I think that the 49ers can have success running the ball on the Rams. Stafford just has not been right. I don't know what it is, but he since week 8, EPA and plus completion percentage over expectation, composite since week eight, he's 24th in the league. He's been terrible.

A smidge above Jared Goff. So I don't know if it's the loss of Woods, if it's, but he's just been a turnover machine. Couldn't get it going last week against just a decimated Raven secondary. And look, one of the reasons I bet the Ravens last week is they could stop the run, really good run-die, without having to. commit too many resources. And as, you know, as great as McVeigh's offenses are, they, you know, and you could say look at Stafford and some of their weapons, everything starts with the run for them. And the 49ers run defense has been excellent. It should hold up here. And this is just the

team that the Rams, look, the circle of life for the NFC West, like the 49ers beat the Rams. Like they don't match up well because it's just a team that can run it down the throats. It kind of takes away their, you know, where their strength is. Like Ramsey, okay, he's not as important in a game like this on their defense. So I think it's too many points in which you could argue is a bigger home field advantage, but it's probably just a negligible home field advantage for either team. And yeah, I trust Shanahan to get this done, or at least cover. He's great as a dog.

And Trey Lance, I think it was just so big for him to have that second half last week because he looked off in that first half. skittish, little just indecisive. And then the second half, everything started clicking. So to have that game and that conference level coming into this week, I think is big. I think this goes down to the wire.

My prediction is that the Rams win this game by three, and the Falcons beat the Saints. This is the stuff that happens in the last week, the NFL, and the 49ers get in it anyway, and the rest of the NFC is going to be best because I bet the rest

of the NFC is rooting for the Saints to win, the 49ers to lose so the 49ers don't get in and then get healthier on the defensive side because that's the team you do not want to play as the 7th seed. Same thing with the AFC, like the Chiefs, you probably root for the Raiders. But wouldn't they be the 6th seed because they have the same record as the Eagles and they beat them? Yeah, they would be above the Eagles. The Saints would be the 7.

But just regardless, the rest of the NFC does not want the 49ers in there. And the same way that I bet the Chiefs were the two seed, they're going to be rid of the Raiders. Yeah, for sure. Sunday night, so they don't have to play the Chargers. Yeah, for sure. Well, Stucky, let's enjoy some football this weekend. And just win some bets.

Adios, bro. Absolutely. Have a good one. The volume. Oh, what's this? Zennie's 3D virtual try-on. Pretty cool, right? Wait, are those prices real?

Do they have glasses for men? Yep, they also have affordable blue-light glasses. Seriously? At those prices, get them all. where this is going. Zennie.com. Prescription glasses starting at 695.

Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk

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