The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - Sirianni staying in Philly, Belichick to Atlanta, Huge playoff weekend

Episode Date: January 19, 2024

John dives into how Buffalo need to beat the Chiefs if they want to start considering this match-up a rivalry, Sirianni is likely staying in Philadelphia with some caveat, Bill Belichick appears to be a lock in Atlanta and why that is a good move for him, and Seattle is interviewing Vrabel to be their next head coach. Later, John is joined by The Action Network's betting analyst, Stuckey to give you the best bets for this weekend. 5:02 - KC-Buffalo Rivalry 13:07 - Nick Sirianni staying? 22:19 - Steelers 24:06 - Belichick to ATL 27:52 - Vrabel in Seattle 33:20 - Stuckey 36:10 - Ravens-Texans 42:04 - 49ers-Packers 49:15 - Bucs-Lions 56:45 - Bills-Chiefs Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest. Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Tomlin says they're going to have a quarterback competition. The Atlanta Falcons and Belichick now feels not likely but inevitable. Stucky will join us. We will talk all four games, talk betting, talk some props, and really dive deep into the weekend because we only got seven games left, right? We got four this week. two next week in the Super Bowl. So we got to enjoy it.

And we definitely got to gamble. I plan on doing that. So here is the plan. Football, then Stucky, and we will get back to a mailbag. Maybe I'll do a mailbag. Maybe I'll put one out on Saturday morning. Maybe I'll do that. Depends what I'm doing on Friday, which I don't really have plans.

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Get outside the house. Go do something and enjoy yourself. I know I've used them several times and I don't regret it. I've said this forever. I watch pro sports for the stars. I watch college sports for Alabama, Duke, North Carolina, and Ohio State. I'm not into overachievers in the small little program. And I'm a small program guy.

Came from, started my football career in D1AA and got a job in Fresno State. I got news for you watching Alabama and Michigan is dramatically better. Just like my entire life, from Michael Jordan to Tiger Woods, my two favorite athletes and fall in Tom and Peyton my entire adult life. I watch this stuff for the superstars. Now, it doesn't mean in a team sport like football that you don't have some fantastic stories, undrafted free agents, overachievers that make plays. But pro sports have always been driven by the best.

And listen, I'm a big market guy. Born and raised, a 49er guy when Steve Young and Jerry Rice were humming. So I am drawn to the big names. And so are we all. The numbers speak for themselves, right, when it comes to ratings, brands, and individuals. But it doesn't get much better than Mahomes and Josh Allen. It really doesn't. And as someone who really gravitated toward Peyton Manning in like 2000,

he always kind of let me down when he played Belichick and he played Tom Brady. He couldn't get over the hump. They owned his ass early in his career. And the reality is to make something a true rivalry, you got to beat the other team. Like, let's face it, before the Red Sox took down the Yankees in 2004, it wasn't really much of a rivalry.

The Yankees were winning all the time. They owned the Red Sox, and then they started, you know, they flipped the script a little bit. It's like if LeBron hadn't taken down the Warriors' 73-win team, like that wouldn't have been a rivalry. The Warriors consistently beat his ass.

But he got him. So it became a legitimate rivalry, even though they beat them the majority of times. You have to. to win one of the games to make it a rivalry. Like it's part of what makes college sports so great. Duke, North Carolina, Ohio State, Michigan. Auburn, Alabama.

Auburn can be awful, and they always give Alabama everything they can handle, no matter how average their team may be. And vice versa, if Alabama's down, they're going to give Auburn everything they can handle. And this is a one-sided rivalry, even though these two teams play each other, and Josh has beat him in the regular season. But countless times in the biggest moments, Patrick Mahomes, has taken him down. It's what made the Bengals and the Chiefs such an interesting match.

It's like, well, Joe Burrow can beat Patrick Mahomes. We saw them do it two years ago. It's why when they played last year in that AFC championship game, you're like, no clue who's going to win. Now, I still feel like that about this game, but as I talked about Stucky with the gambling, I would have a hard time. I'm not betting this game. The only thing I'm going to bet in this game is the over for Josh Allen's rush attempt. I've never even played a prop in my life. in football. I'm going to hammer that. Like, I couldn't take betting against Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.

Though, if you're the Bills and you're a Bills fan, if you're Josh Allen and Sean McDermott, it doesn't get any better than this. You got him at home. It's the first playoff game the dude's ever played on the road. You are the favorite for a reason. Right? This team,

relative to their past teams, and I'll promise you this, relative to what they'll be moving forward, this might be your best opportunity. Like the way Peyton Manning finally flipped the script was a game in Indianapolis And I'm pretty sure they were down like 24 to 3 at halftime I remember being in college like He's never going to fucking do it

Peyton Manning can never beat the past And then what happened? Completely flipped in the second half And they finally won the game and they went on to win the Super Bowl Now even if the bills win this game I don't know if it's like you knew the Colts were going to win that Super Bowl I hell I wouldn't even feel great about them Win the next game against the Baltimore Raven But you've got to win this game or else this is not a rivalry.

We have some fun regular season games, but we know who's going to win in the biggest moments. And the shitty part for the bills, but what makes it so great for us as fans is like we saw the Miami Dolphins. Now, I understand they had a million injuries. Their quarterback's never winning outdoors in a freezing cold game. Never going to happen. The Chiefs are completely unfazed by weather. They literally just played in Antarctica last week. So now they got to go up to Buffalo.

Also a terrible weather place. It's going to be freezing, snow, wind. Who knows? Sleet. They'll be unfazed. So there is no advantage that way. You saw last week with Patrick Bohomes. He, like, played completely normal.

Andy Reid's calling 40-plus pass plays up in the game. Like, they're unfazed by the cold, and their receivers aren't even that good. So if you're Josh Allen, if you're Sean McDermott, like my first year with the Eagles, Sean McDermott was our defensive coordinator. We hosted a playoff game. Aaron Rogers beat us. He got fired. Now, him and Andy Reid, our buddy.

I don't think there's ill will at this point in time. But this is a big deal for you. It's not just a rivalry. This is the guy where you got your start. Sean McDermott started as like the lowest guy in the totem pole. It's called the coach's assistant. Something Andy Reed has done forever. And he's moved up to become, you know,

I don't want to say a star head coach, but a very, very successful head coach. But let's face it, you got to win this game. You got to beat this team. You got to slay this dragon. Like ultimately Tiger owned Phil. It was like Phil's never. going to be able to do it, Tigers in his head. And then Phil started rattling off majors.

Right? No different in football. Peyton Manning, like we said, finally got over the hump. It's a little different golf because you're also playing the field. In team sports, you're just playing the other team. Like, no one could ever take down Michael when it mattered. And so far, the only guy who's taken down Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reed is Tom Brady and Joe Burrell. Yeah, Tom Brady beat him in the Super Bowl too, even though that game, they had lost both their tackles, they had no shot. But like in the AFC, there's been two guys. Tom Brady, Joe Burrell. Obviously, Tom Brady's and Belichick, I mean, the greatest combination we've ever seen. And Joe Burrell went healthy, and I saw it this year against the 49ers, as many as you did as well.

Like, he's one of the best players in the sport. And he has a chance if he can just stay healthy, he's going to be a Hall of Famer. So Josh Allen, who I think we all acknowledge, should be in the Hall of Fame one day. He's easily one of the most physically gifted players we've ever seen at any position. The dude is a freak. And he's a winner. Like, wins a ton of games. He's not some choke artists in the playoffs.

We saw a couple years ago when they lost that game, the 13 second game. I think he threw four or five touchdowns. He was freaking incredible in that game. So it's not like he's got this Dak Prescott thing going on where he shits the bed in the playoffs. I mean, last couple days ago, he was freaking awesome in that game.

But you got to win this. You've got to have this moment at home. No excuses. I don't care how many guys are injured. Like this is a time, you're playing a chief's team, then let's face it, it is pretty flawed. So I watch sports for this. Mahomes, Josh Allen, on the road, freezing cold.

This is AFC football. This is two guys that make $45, $50 million that have enormous contracts that are worth every penny, that you would have no hesitation paying way more. They carry your franchise. But right now, you know, you got to take down Mahomes. And if the bills do it, listen, we will, no matter how good the Ravens look on Saturday,

assuming they win, and I'm going to assume they win, we'll give them a shot, because you get that guy, you finally slay the dragon, maybe the damn breaks. Now you've got to take down Lamar, this is why we talk about the AFC is so hard. Because not only do you have to play all these superstar $45, $50 million quarterbacks, you've got to play them in inclement weather.

Now, the thing with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, they're kind of weathered cheat coats, unfazed. They have huge arms. Obviously, Josh is a great athlete. Patrick Mahomes a damn good one. And they can make plays with their legs, unfazed by pressure. So can't wait to watch this game, man. This is, I watch pro sports to watch the best in the business.

I always have and always will. It doesn't get any better. Siriani, who is, I think Jeffrey Lurie, as my guys, our production team, when we were recording something earlier today, mentioned that I guess he's in the Caribbean on his young. So this is good for Jeffrey. Even when you lose as an owner, you're still winning because you're worth a lot of money and you got fun shit to do whenever you want to do it.

But Nick Siriani, who by all accounts as of recording this, is going to return as the Eagles head coach. And he's going to outline a project or plan for his different assistant coaches to Jeffrey Lurie to basically make the case but make him feel good how they're going to improve next year. And listen, if you're a young offensive coach, and you're the head coach, I understand having defensive coordinator turnover,

especially when one of your defensive coordinators get a job, you might hire the wrong guy. Siriani is not the first, and he definitely won't be the last, to make a bad hire at the opposite side of the ball in which he has, quote-unquote, expertise. I don't fault him for their situation this offseason. And let's face it, they were on the right guy.

They wanted Fangio, but Gannon and the Cardinals screwed him. It's why the Eagles went after him, and ultimately got a draft pick. So, like, they didn't ultimately want Sean to sigh. They were kind of left holding the bag. They were in the Super Bowl. The hiring cycle had already taken place. And they had to hire a guy who was already on their staff,

which ideally they would never have hired. And then they made the change to Matt Patricia, who was even worse. Don't totally blame them. They had to make a change, and that was their only option. It failed. We all acknowledged that. Here's my issue with this whole operation. He's not just going to talk about the defense.

He's like, well, how are we going to improve their offense? Let's take, you know, three guys that I think we all view as the best young offensive coaches in the NFL that are head coaches, right? Sean McVeigh, who's my age, 38, 39 years old, he is the offensive coordinator. Matt LaFleur and Kyle, who are playing each other this year, I think they're both 43, 44 years old, right? They would never have to go to their owner, Cronky or Jed, or in LaFleur's case, Goudicans and Murphy. and like obviously Leflore has had a defensive issue on his hands. A lot of people want him to fire his buddy Joe Barry

and depending on how this weekend goes, he might have to, right? He probably is going to have to. Like Joe Barry more than likely won't be his defensive coordinator. Like I said, that happens. I give you somewhat of a pass, right? You hire the wrong guy, you got to pivot. Now should they have fired him last year

and hired a better guy? Probably. But regardless, they're in the second round, whatever. Matt LaFleur, Kyle Shanahan, or Chao McVeigh would never have to walk into the powers of B and go here is my plan at offensive coordinator and the guys to help us fix our offense.

Why? That's what they do. That's their role. I say this all the time. If I'm hiring a young coach, one of the reasons I'm hiring him, one, I am betting on the come that he can lead the entire squad and put together a good coaching staff,

but I'm hiring him for his expertise. and specifically on offense, which the highest paid guy on any team, if they're on their second contract and they're good, is always going to be the quarterback, right? Like if Jordan Love keeps playing like this, he is going to get an enormous contract. Obviously, all the other guys, the Mahomes, the Allen, all those guys make a ton of money. And the Eagles are a good example of having a team with a guy that they paid a lot of money.

Now, you can say they paid him too fast. Regardless, they did it. He had an awesome Super Bowl. Might have been an outlier season. but shouldn't your head coach who's an offensive guy who's 42, 43 years old, shouldn't that be his baby? Shouldn't his level of expertise be able to fix that position? You notice whenever you watch, you know, those other three guys, McVeigh,

definitely LaFour with Love and Kyle with the 49ers, they're always talking and dealing with either the quarterback or offensive players. Why? Because they're fucking calling the place. So if anything ever go wrong, they have a tough stretch, they can fix it. Think about this with Sean McVeigh. He's like, I'm over Jared Goff. They got a better quarterback, and when that guy's been on the field, they've been freaking awesome. Kyle Shanahan, the offense, no one even questions that is 100% his baby.

Clearly, LaFleur and Jordan Love, what he's done, if Jordan Love can just sustain this level of play, Matt LaFleur is going to be one of the best coaches in the NFL for a long time, if that's what he has in the bag. if this year and this stretch of football is not an outlier. And that's why you feel really good if you're a fan of any of those teams of having that guy as your head coach. Think about the older generation of playcullers. Sean Payton, Andy Reed, would they ever have to look to their owner and go, I need to bring in this guy to help fix the quarterback?

Of course not. Even John Gruden, who is coming after the league hardcore in this legal battle, the offense was 100% him. specifically the quarterback, the play calls. So this is my issue with Nick Sieriana. It's like the players like him. I know a lot of people with the Eagles. People like him.

He is well liked in the building, right? You saw Fletcher Cox, if you haven't seen the clip, someone asked him, Jeff McLean about Siriana getting fired. And, you know, Fletcher's one of the team captains, leaders of the squad, shot right back. Kelsey's had his back. They've all supported him. So it's not like he is some toxic individual

where the players turned on. Josh McDaniels, right? But what does he do? What does he do besides some of the motivation, which clearly didn't work? Shouldn't his expertise be able to get Jalen back on track? Shouldn't that be part of a selling point? But we all know it's not, and it's not going to be. And a huge conversation around the Eagles isn't going to be like,

well, are they just going to go land Wink Martindale, or are they going to land so-and-so defensive coordinator? It's like they're surely either going to demote or fire Brian Johnson, who's going to call the plays? I think it's fair to say, no one expects it to be Nick Siriani. So isn't that your issue to start? Think about Mike McCarthy,

who everyone thought was going to get fired, myself included. Well, if you're Jerry and you're 80 plus years old, and clearly you don't want to go on a coaching search, aka hire Belichick because then he takes credit away from you, that's a different conversation. At least you can say this. I know Mike can consistently win in the regular season,

and now this year he proved Now I know the final game was horrendous But like he can be my play caller So not only is he my head coach But when he's my play caller My quarterback excels Except the playoff game But has a really good season

Like he can call the place So I just can't wrap my head around Hiring a young offensive guy Who is incapable of calling the place In my opinion That's the wrong guy to have as your head coach it really is. Here's why I know about

Mike McCarthy next year. Their offense is going to be good. Their offense is going to be good because it was good when he wasn't calling plays and then when he took over, it got even better. Siriani, like, what are the Eagles going to look like? No clue. I would assume they're better on defense

if they hire a good defensive coordinator, which they definitely will pay for. But when it comes to the offensive side of the ball, your guess is as good as mine, and that's a problem. Because you don't guess anymore like Sean McVeigh, they're going to be good on offense. Kyle Shannon, they're going to be good on offense. Matt LaFleur.

Aaron Rogers, now Jordan Love, they're going to be good on offense. Sean Payton, he will figure it out if he gets a capable quarterback. Andy Reed, proving he and coached with any quarterback. Nick Siriani? I don't know. puts on weird shirts. High fives Dom. I just, I just don't totally get it. And this is not personal. It's just like from a coaching standpoint, I don't see how you couldn't have just in major reservations. And listen, texting with people, they've never hired defensive coaches, and they've never hired retreads. Andy Reid first time coach, Chip Kelly, first time in the NFL.

Doug Peterson first time head coach, Nick Siriani, first time head coach. And I was guilty of this. I did a lot of Belichick. They're even variable. Like, that's not really their style. They're an offensive-oriented organization. Now, they value defense and they pay for defense, but they like offensive head coaches. and when you look around the landscape,

it's a lot of Belichick, Brable, and Pete Carroll, which is not really going to be their thing. You know, firing him for Ben Johnson would be somewhat risky, like we often say, just hiring a coordinator doesn't guarantee you anything. But I just,

I think you've got to be pretty nervous with Siriani in the offensive situation. Now, luckily, because of the quarterback and some of the infrastructure they have there, you know, you should be able to pluck, but this isn't college. I can't just steal the best offensive coordinator because I'm willing to double his salary.

The guy has to be available. So he either has to be a fired coordinator or someone's assistant that does not call the place. I think the Eagles have a lot more questions than answers when it comes to the offense and comes to the quarterback. The Pittsburgh Steelers. Mike Tomlin basically admitted, like, we're going to have a quarterback competition.

And clearly, Candy Pickett, we talked about this yesterday, was mad because he didn't talk to the media when the season ended. That obviously he got essentially benched. They didn't go back to him when he was quote unquote healthy and ready to roll. And I don't blame him. I would have stuck with Mason Rudolph as well. But I do think it brings up a lot like the questions with Siriani of like,

you can't roll back into the season with Kenny Pickett as your starting quarterback. He has not earned the right to just be set in stone at that position. Now, Tomlin said the game plan is to go with Kenny Pickett but with competition. So to me, they have, they're a team that I would be, has Justin Fields written all over. if they can get, and let's think about a team that is willing to trade guys, they've made a trade before with Ryan Poles where they kind of fleeced them, I could see them trading a second or third round pick to bring in Fields. And let's face it, I think Justin Fields is a very flawed player,

but at least what he brings to the table, I think he's a better player than Kenny Pickett. So I would expect to keep an eye on the Steelers, and now we'll see. The other thing Tomlin said is, and I don't change my opinion of, I think it was time for a divorce, but clearly they're not going to do it. Tomlin's going to stay. And I don't blame Tomlin for not wanting to lead the Pittsburgh Steelers. I understand why he would want to stay, get it fixed,

but I think it's going to be very difficult. Let's face it, even if they do make a trade for Justin Fields, if I go, hey, the Steelers are rolling in, similar squad, Justin Fields and Kenny Pickett, it's not like all of a sudden you view them as like a 13-win team. So some of these teams, man, they try to band-aid some of these. situations of like you're just kind of you just kind of spinning your wheels the Atlanta Falcons it is going to be very very bizarre to see William Belichick in an Atlanta Falcons hoodie it really is you know now I don't blame him if that's all signs pointing they're going to have a second

interview like these aren't like what are they asking Bill Belichick as most people have alluded to on social media he's interviewing them this has always been Belichick's job to turn down and because the Cowboys didn't become available, the Eagles, like I was described earlier, probably was never an option because they don't go defense. There just weren't other opportunities that make more sense because if your bill,

you get a couple things. You get an owner with incredibly deep pockets. You get a division that three quarterbacks are Bryce Young, who weighs 125 pounds. You get Derek Carr, and you get Baker Mayfield, who we think? I mean, who knows? He could end up in another team and then Tampa would have no quarterback.

potentially, who knows? Maybe they don't mask the contract and they draft a rookie. But it's a very quarterback-friendly division for a defensive head coach. And offensively, here's what I promise you will happen. Some of these offensive weapons

will be traded this offseason. Kyle Pitts, Drake London, Bejohn Robinson, one of those players, in my opinion, I don't know which probably makes sense. Kyle Pitts, maybe he wants more of a physical in-line blocker, will be dealt.

So they have assets to deal with. They have some pieces on defense. And those guys, especially Drake London and Bejohn Robinson, are very talented. They need to be better in the trenches. And they just need a guy that knows what they're doing. Now, to me, the question is going to be. And this happened with Arthur Smith. And I think we didn't question, like, why don't you have some superstar quarterback?

Why didn't you attempt to just bring in someone to beat out Desmond Ritter? To name him your starting quarterback, it was almost inevitable what happened happened. No one was shocked. He was basically fired because he rolled back and played the season. Now I know he benched him at multiple times, but that is what he thought was the best option, which is a fireable offense. The thing with Belichick is beside hitting on Brady,

like the quarterback carousel has been somewhat of an issue. So obviously Bill Belichick would not play next season with Desmond Ritter, but what are his options? Doesn't feel like he'd trade for Justin Fields, because really he's looking for more of a game manager type. And when I say that, he'd be fine with a Jared Gough, obviously, Dak Prescott, like something like that. Not necessarily their stats this year,

but kind of what they've been throughout their career and build up the team around them. But how do you get that guy? Kirk Cousin's coming off in Achilles, and Belichick's not going to break the bank for an injured player. Drafting a guy is always risky. I mean, they did it with Mac Jones, and he got worse and worse.

So to me, the Belichick thing, I hate the brand like Bill with the Falcons. That's very weird. Totally understand if you're Atlantic going all in for him. I just wonder who's going to be the quarterback. I just wonder who is going to be the quarterback. And, you know, that's going to be the most fascinating thing because we've seen Bill do some weird shit.

He got desperate the one year when Tom left and all of a sudden had to sign Cam Newton because he had no other options. The next year he didn't have another quarterback because Cam Newton wasn't any good drafted Mac Jones 15th. I don't think Bill Belichick loved Mac Jones in the draft. He didn't have a choice. And now he's going to go to a place

that has a lot going for them, just talent at different positions, but they just have absolutely no answer at that position. And it's not like they're drafting in the top five. I don't know. It's going to be a fascinating case study. You know, Belichick makes the playoffs a couple times. I think he can kind of help.

I wouldn't say resurrect his legacy because his legacy's kind of set, but at least take some of the stink of the last couple years off in New England. And last but not least, Mike Vrable interviewing in Seattle. If I'm Vrable, I would be able,

be very, very interested in that job. Because the one thing I think he needs is, like a lot of good young coaches, is a general manager to rely on. Like, Mike, you can't be Bill, and I'm not saying he tried to, but like, clearly he wants done his way or the highway. And I think that's a tough deal for the coach to attempt to, like, have a ton of personnel power. And I'm pro.

I understand why Mike, bravado, the ego, but part of being good at this job is relying on other talented people. Coaches do it all the time with assistant coaches. Sometimes they get unwilling to do that with a personnel guy. I don't blame Mike for not trusting Rand Carthin. They didn't know each other. The owner picked them. He didn't want to pick.

I get that. But John Snyder knows what he's doing. He's won. He's been in the league for decades at multiple spots that have had success. Like that to me, if I'm Mike Vrable, I'm interested in that job. We got some pieces. We got draft capital. I got some skill guys.

I bring Arthur Smith. You know, maybe in a couple years we're a consistent wildcard team. So I've proven now the South is much easier of a division than the NFC West with McVeigh and Kyle and those two teams. But the NFC is not very good. Like if I'm Mike Vrable, now it feels a little weird, Mike Frable, Seattle. If I'm John Snyder, I'll tell you this. I would much rather have Mike Vrable than Dan Quinn. If you hire Dan Quinn, it feels like you're just hiring him because you kind of know him.

And you kind of want that Pete positivity. Like we've had the Pete positivity It kind of had a shelf life It's fine and Pete's a lead at it But Dan Quinn like I just saw his defense They were an embarrassment Like that was pretty bad No one had any clue what was going on

It was pretty ugly And they've had some awful games this year defensively So to me If you're thinking defense And I clearly John's open to whatever And Mike knows the deal Like John would be in charge Which I think is a healthy thing

Like bro you don't want to waste time Andy Reid went to Kansas City like, I don't want to be the GM anymore. I don't want that time commitment. That's the thing with Belichick. Ultimately, Belichick gets Atlanta, like, he's going to be the grand pooh ball. It's like, are we going to miss on draft picks because you won't listen to any personnel guys? Like Mike, rely on other people, especially a guy that's proven to be pretty freaking good.

It'll help your career. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. Yep, that's me. Clever Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from. from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.

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Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do a little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J.

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Back at it again. As we head in, I counted yesterday. We have seven games left. So let's all try to really, really enjoy these. Stucky has been slinging winners, like in and out, slings cheeseburgers. You can hear my man, Action Network. Big Betts on campus, he's all over the place.

And he loved, and I mean loved, the Tampa Bay tight end Auden to go off. And he didn't just go off. He looked like a Novichick in his prime out there. against the Eagles slow-ass defense. Stucky, I was telling you before, I hit a golf bet, made about a thousand bucks, and I was thinking like,

I kind of want to roll this into one of these games on Monday. I didn't quite trust. I remember we talked about the 10 points. I'm glad I wouldn't have liked that sweat. I would have lost because I would have taken the Steelers. But the night game, I'm like, I don't know, man. This Eagles team, they're more than leaking oil. They're in fucking shambles.

and I pushed out and you knew within, I would say like three or four plays, the Eagles are in trouble. Even before the buck started, you could just feel it. And I would say by the end of the first quarter, that game was,

I know it was 16 to 9 there for a while, the Eagles got worked. Yeah, I mean, what a sad. They were 10 and 1 at one point. I was bringing the bell that this team was a fraud, but I did not see this coming. I mean, the vibes around the team were so bad and they had a chance to hit the reset button and simply couldn't.

I mean, just the tackling alone, some of the broken long, and they wouldn't cover anybody. I'm watching out the whole time. And I'm just like, oh, this is good. No one's covering him. Yeah, they have one, he could add an 80-yard touchdown. They split him out wide and no one went with him. Is he good?

I'd be lying if I watch that much bucks. I was like, this guy looks like George Kittle. That's how every tight end looks against Eagles. I mean, he's basically in the NFL. He's one of the, you know, one of the, of like a bottom 10 tied end in the NFL. But if you don't cover him, he can go off. And the Eagles just didn't cover anybody.

So, yeah, it was a good betting weekend. Packers and the Texans over. I promise that they won't be that sweat-free always, if you're new listening. But I think that we... That over was pretty good, too. You knew about after about the first two series. You're like, oh, there's going to be a lot of points scoring this bad boy.

Yeah, games worked great. and I think people are as far as close drama late I think that the a lot of people are falling in love with the dogs that look great last week as far as the going up against the one seeds I don't necessarily agree with that

so I'm excited to get into these games though yeah let's dive into it obviously we kick off the two one seeds because of the way the everything broke over the weekend are playing on Saturday. Let's start with the Ravens who, you know, fucking good. There's no way around it.

They've kind of kicked ass all season long. They're playing this Houston Texans team. Listen, the quarterback is really good. Some of those plays last week, though, were like, if you're going to crush Purdy for yards after the catch, I mean, there were some serious yards after the catch. I think that division was an absolute shambles. I mean, the Colts, an all-time fraud to be that close to being in the playoffs.

And listen, I'm a bullish believer in this Texans team long term. I mean, they might have the most cap space this offseason. Texas, no state income tax. They're going to get free agents. They still got picks. The quarterback's going to get better. They're a good team moving forward. I think it comes to a screeching halt.

And I know this line's big, nine and a half. I mean, is it more likely to be eight and a half nine by kickoff or more likely to be 10, 10 and a half? I think 10. I don't think it would go above 10 and a half. I played some Ravens minus first half minus five and a half. The Ravens, for what it's worth, are an absolutely elite first half team. Lamar Jackson first half against the spread in his career, 50, 25, and 2, 67% most profitable quarterback NFL history in the first half. And Harbaugh is the most profitable coach in the first half against a spread 148-103-8 against spread 59%.

Now you can say, well, they've been together a lot. Well, if you remove Lamar Jackson, Harbaugh, Harbaugh, is. still one of the most profitable first half against spread coaches in NFL history. For example, he's seven and two against the spread in the first half when when Tyler Huntley starts. Two reasons for both of those things. Ravens usually well-prepared team, especially this year. I mean, the time off here, the extra preparation, their coordinators are so good. And every week during the year, especially at McDonald, like he has a great game plan.

And they already saw the Texans. So I think that the buy, you know, not only are they healthier, you're getting Mark Andrews back. The Texans have a bunch of injuries on their defense. Their wide receiver room is basically just down with Nico Collins. Noah Brown went on our. You don't have Tank Dell. But the time off helps a lot.

And then teams aren't used to Lamar's speed early. And that's, you know, unless you're like the Steelers, Bengals, Browns at sea them all the time. It's something that you have to adjust to. So the Ravens usually can get out to a fast start. But yeah, so I'd prefer the first half a little bit because I think that coordinator preparation advantage. And sometimes the Ravens, they play with their food a little bit in the second half, let teams back in. And I could see Stroud being down like 14 late and they get a back door.

But I would lean Ravens for the full game. I'm probably going to play some of that too at under 10. But I played first half. It's also a really good matchup in the sense that Lamar Jackson has been elite against zone this year. I mean, he absolutely destroys it, completing 70% of his passes, 0.1 EPA per dropback, 51% success. rate. He also scrambles more and more successfully against zone. And the Texans are heavy zone defense. And they don't blitz. And that's really how you can kind of try to throw Lamar off. So he's just carved up zone. A lot of people think, oh, if you play man, then that's when the quarterback will scramble.

That's true, but not with Lamar. Like, it doesn't matter if you're playing zone and you got a line back. Lamar's just going to run right by. So he's just ripped up zone all year. And like I said, this is an elite Ravens defense that can get pressure. They're going to, and they mix up their gameplay, depending on who they're playing. I think you're going to see a little bit more man, but some disguise looks, you know, some different pressures. And Shrald hasn't been the same quarterback against man or when he's under pressure. So I think he's going to, yeah, I love Shroud.

He's been amazing, but I think he's going to probably make a couple of key mistakes. It's also an indoor team, plays at a dome going outdoors, going to be frigid temperatures. And if you look at what, you mentioned the division, which is a key point, because And by the way, Ravens better special teams as well, which matter in the playoffs. If you look at the Texans schedule this year, they faced one, you just go by EPA on offense, one top 10 offense, the Ravens in week one. That's it. They lost 25 to 9. And that was the Ravens in an offense brand new scheme first game of the year.

If you go EPA quarterbacks, top seven. The quarterbacks who finish in the top 17 this year. They faced two. Lamar Jackson and Baker Mayfield. That's it. I mean, this is a deep. And now this defense has, you know, Anderson and Gendarter banged up. They lost some guys in the secondary.

They faced nobody all year. And didn't both those guys, I mean, week one throughout, but Baker Mayfield had a big day against that. Yeah, it scored 37. The final score that was 38, 37. They got ripped apart. And then, you know, the only quarter, over the last 10 games, the only playoff quarterback they faced, was Baker was Joe Flacco. And Flacco put up 38 in Houston one game.

And then, you know, obviously threw his picks last week. But that's it. Like, they have not faced elite offenses. So I think they're in for, I mean, this is a hugely successful season for Houston. Anything could happen. It's one football game. I mean, the Ravens could not get, I saw it back in 2019 with the Titans. The Titans were a little better than this, than their defense was better.

but Raiders could fumble three times. They could go 0 for 5 on 4th down. Things can happen, but the Raiders are a much better team on defense. It's a good matchup with the offense. And the Texans just aren't healthy, going outdoors, less time to prepare. I think you get a fully focused Raiden's effort here. I think they jump out on them early, and that spells bad news, but I played Baltimore first half. I like that.

Okay, the night game. I said yesterday on the podcast, I think when you look at the play, off pressure, I think there is more on Brock and Kyle than any other team. Harbaugh's already won one, and they have Lamar under contract right now on the peak of his power. So obviously, if they don't win a Super Bowl this year, it hurts, but they're going to be one of the favorites coming in next year. Same thing with the bills, right? They feel like they have a little more pressure than the Ravens because their coach is probably on less solid ground, but they have one of the most talented players in NFL history that's their quarterback under contract.

The Niners like, can Kyle win a big game? I mean, I don't know. He can't win when he's behind historically, the number speak for himself. And their quarterback, let's face it, like, I think it's good, but I've seen Kyle pivot off guys. And shit changes fast in the NFL. So, you know, I like him a lot in this game. Joe Barry, Kyle Shanahan, good fucking luck to the Packers. And I think the defense for the 49ers like, Jordan Love, let's face it.

He's been incredible. I mean, he made some throws last week if you take out some of the easy ones that look like Rogers are far. But I do think this is going to be a very, very tough matchup. And honestly, the Niners, you know, they're a huge favorite in this game. What's the line next week if they play Detroit?

Six, seven. So not that big? Except there'll probably be a touchdown. Touchdown favor. So you get back-to-back weeks where a huge favorite. Let's just assume they win those games. They're going to be judged simply on like, what does it look like against the Ravens or the Bills?

right can you beat like that that's going to be like there how often are you playing the nfc championship game or excuse me the divisional round and then the and then the championship game with a combined like you know multiple you know a touchdown in each game like that's i'm sorry like you should win those games it's going to come obviously to me i hope they see the ravens and i think the packers which have had a lot like the texas same same story you know an incredible season, but I think it's a different level now. I agree. I like the Niners here. And think

about it. Do you agree with me on the pressure stuff? Yeah, well, I would say Lamar has pressure on him. He has a playoff win. So the Mara has pressure on him, not in the sense of like what's going to happen to the organization, but just the questions that he'd have to answer. Like Peyton in the peak of his power or something. Are you ever

going to get it done? You can't yeah, if he has a bad game. Josh, Josh two. Yeah. Yeah, but if he has a bad game and doesn't win another playoff and losing the first round at home, there will be questions. Yeah.

Some warrant it. But yeah, I agree with you. But I just think, yeah, I like the nine to see. I mean, and I think they actually could be seven and a half, eight point favorites, maybe against Detroit. I think this line should be over 10. I think there's some recency bias here just from what everyone saw Green Bay, sort of like Houston last week.

But, you know, I went into last week and I was saying, I think the Browns are I would have the Browns done they beat a bunch of backup quarterbacks with a you know it was a great story but their defense was all hurt and then the Packers they beat this just Cowboys team that's a front runner and when they get behind and they're a disaster and they got out

coached out scheme so yeah love has been amazing and they in order to win this game he's going to have to you know be Pete Brady and they're he's going to have to throw for like 420 and be close to perfect because and I don't think

he can do that he's been great but i mean let's also look at some of the competition he's faced down the stretch and you know the the diners defense people forget it's been very good all year and they're going to get you know green law they're going to get arm set back you go fully healthy defensive line now they should be able to get some pressure so but the biggest mismatch in this game and don't and don't forget the packer special teams if this game is close are horrendous or the worst special teams in the league they don't even have a kicker they can trust um the biggest miss match of this game is there is, I do not see a path where the Packers can stop the Niners. I mean, you look, Niners is a lot of inside, outside zone.

So they run Packers one of the worst defenses in the league defending that. The, you know, they can't, you know, Packers play a lot, cover three. Niners, Purdy rips that apart. Packers can't cover the slot, middle of the field, can't cover backs out of the backfield or tight ends. I mean, look at the problem. For what Ferguson did last, we get three touchdowns. Yeah, it's a problem against the Niners. It's sort of like what the Eagles, the problem that the Eagles have.

It's not going to go well against the 49ers. And then this is a big number, but for what it's worth, usually there's, you know, in the NFL playoffs, there's a big number for a reason. I think going back 20 years, I think double-digit favorites in the playoffs are 16 and 9 against the spread. Or I should say 25 years. So they've been good against the spread. And but there's just, I just don't see how they get stops. This Packers D has been horrendous all year.

They gave up 30 to the parents. I mean, it took, it would take the Panthers seven games to get the 30 points. So this defense is very vulnerable. And the other reason why I don't mind laying a big number here is sometimes when, and it hasn't been the case as much this year, but sometimes when Shanahan gets up, he'll go a little conservative. And then then it leaves the back door open. And, you know, they used to not, Niners used to never cover big numbers because of that.

but if the Niners get up and then they just say, okay, let's run it more. That'll work. That'll work against the Packers' defense. They can just run it up and down the field. One of the reasons I'd like the Packers last week is the Cowboys couldn't run it all year.

Inefficient running the ball. Now you're going up against the best rushing offense the NFL. And it's Shanahan with a couple weeks to prepare versus Joe Barry. I mean, that is the biggest mismatch of the weekend. So I just don't see how the Packers get stops. You're talking about a bottom five to 10-ish defense. and the 49ers have a top five defense,

they're just going to get a couple more stops. And that's all it's going to come down to. And that's assuming love will continue to be as good as he has been. He could easily have an off game here, throw a couple picks. And then this is, you know, 38, 13. But this reminds me of all the Packers old, you know, instead of Rogers, you have loved who's played well, but he's not as proven. But it's the same thing.

Like when the Packers used to play the Niners in Big. games and the playoffs. Remember the 19th season in 20 and Moser had like 700 yards against them? Yeah, I don't, it's, I have deja vu. It's basically the same thing that I'm saying just with different players. And Shanahan's still there. You know, the same coach. But yeah, I just don't see how the Packers will get stops here.

So, yeah, love, if he has the game of his life, that's what they're going to have to do. They're going to keep up or just hope for flus. Obviously, whenever I break these games out, you can just have to tumbles. Yeah, yeah, yeah. But I just don't see how, I mean, yeah, McCaffrey could end up playing quarterback. And if that's the case, then the Packers are going to the NFC championship. But yeah, I like the Niners here. Anything under 10, I'll be betting them minus nine and a half.

Okay, we're in agreement. Ravens Niners. Then the Sunday gets good. I thought this when you watch the Bucks, when Baker was playing well. And I remember when they were playing the 49ers, like they do have good players, right? like Winfield, White, Vita Vaya, obviously Worf's, Godwin, Evans, even the running back White is a good player.

Like he's just a good little scatback. So it's like they have proven veteran high-end guys that would start for every team in the NFL. And if he's going to play, now you're not playing the Eagles defense most weeks, even the Lions pass defense is more than questionable, and the Buccaneers don't even fucking want to run it. They can't.

So like a good run defense, who cares? But like that version of, Baker is like a pretty solid quarterback. And to me, their defense, Todd Bowles, and again, the Eagles were kind of in shambles. This is a different animal with the lions. I do think this game could just be a little weird. Like probably most people, I like the Lions,

but not trying to overreact too much the Eagles game, but I do respect a lot of guys on this Bucks team that have been a part of a lot of big wins over the last three years with Tom. Yeah, I like to, I'm waiting to see. of the seven, there's a seven, and I think this, I like the, I like the bucks, I think this line is a little too high. And one of the things that gives me confidence,

the thing that I actually did bet in this game, it's not Kate Otten, but I bet Chris, a bunch of Chris Godwin props. My favorite was over 20 and a half longest receptions, but I also played over catches, over yards. The main reason is, and it's one of the reasons of confidence in the bucks here, is last

week they came out against the Eagles who couldn't cover anybody. And the bucks sometimes have a proclivity to, you know, I'm going to, we're going to run it too much on first and second down. They haven't been a great rushing offense. Their line is not good to run blocking. And they're just inefficient. They did this more with, who was the left, which was when he's their corner.

But they still did it a little bit too much this year. They came out last week, you know, against the Eagles team, we can't cover anybody. And they just came out and they threw it all over. 75% neutral pass rate. So that gives me confidence this week. The lines run these been very good all year. Their past D is horrendous. And when they played the lines earlier the season,

They only scored six points. I watched that entire game. It was 196. Baker Mayfield, he threw 33% of his passes, 20 or more yards down the field, which is as high as you'll ever see in the NFL game. He missed. You just had one of his awful Baker games. There was two or three, legit 80-yard touchdowns he missed, just missed. One got tipped.

The other, he just missed him. And there were guys wide open down the field. And he just had it off day. So I think, and in that game, they came out and threw it. Last week they said, we're going to come out and throw it. That is how you have to attack this Detroit team. But he was really on, like last week, even the one Evans drop. Like he was in the hands in stride.

He was dialed. Yeah, he was on. But I'm just saying that game, like if you go back and just say, oh, wait, they don't buying the Bucks only scored six points against the lines in the first matchup. So misleading. Flukey a little bit. Yeah, very. Like, there was wide open guys.

So you have to throw against Detroit. So now I'm confident after what I saw last week, I saw in the first matchup is they understand the assignment. And what you're going to have is they, the lines have, yeah, their secondary is very bad, but they have Sutton, who's not good, but he's like a replacement level. They might use them as a shadow sometimes. So they might put him on Evans. If not, he'll be on the right side.

There's a chance they just shadow Evans, which means you're going to have Vildor, this kid out to Georgia Sutton, he's horrendous. He's giving up 22.8 yards per reception. If you look at 150 corners, we've had at least 100, snaps. The next worst is 17 yards. He's giving up six yards more. I mean, if you remember that C.D. Lamb was burning him. If you watch the Lions Cowboys, he gets toasted. He is not, he should not be out there. They tried Jacobs. They tried a bunch of guys. He just have, he's in there by default. Like they just were, try this guy, try this guy. And at the very end of the season, all right,

you're in. And they haven't changed. But he's horrendous. So he's going to be on the left side, or he's going to be falling around Godwin. And Godwin mainly lines up. on the right. He's lining up in the slot less and less. So over the past three weeks, I think he's going to be out there, and he's going to have ample opportunities to hit a big play at least. I think he's got a huge day. But 20 and a half is his longest reception. Vilder 22 and a half is his average reception allowed. So I like God, wouldn't have a big day. And then the bucks are going to blitz a lot. So Bowles does. Gough can fall off against the blitz. He's vulnerable in that sense. So they can maybe force him into mistakes. You know, it is indoor golf at home or as much

better. But if Bowles comes up with some good blitz schemes here, that's when you can really throw off golf. So, yeah, I think seven is too many. But I like Godwin. And because of Otten last week, that huge game, the Lions safety, these linebackers, the Scout, they got to be like, all right, we got to pay a little bit more attention to him, maybe open up some things for Godwin. But there's paths to move the ball on this line's defense that they come out and throw, and I think they will. So I think this will be an entertaining game. And I agree. I think it'll get weird. Do you think there is upset money line potential here? Are we overreacting a little bit from last week?

Sure. I mean, this is probably, because it's not inconceivable, but it's hard to see an upset happening on Saturday. I would even call Chiefs Bills. I know one team's an underdog, let's face it. Those are just, that's a fucking coin flip game. Yeah, right? Yeah.

Like this would be a true underdog on the road, back-to-back weeks. Like, they were a legit underdog against the Eagles. it was the right call. Turns out, like, looking back, like the Eagles were an all-time implosion team. But this is one of those that... Remember that one time the 49ers played the Bucks in the NFC championship in favor by 14 points?

Yeah. Like, it's not crazy in five years. We're bullshitting about that, right? Yep. Yeah. I mean, that was the Lions' first playoff victory. Here's the other thing. It could have easily lost.

You know, sometimes, like, in college, when you have a big upset and you just like take down Bama or you take down Ohio State, and the next week you lose? You're like, how did you just lose the fucking Rutgers? Well, it's because, Iowa, they celebrated all week long. Could that happen a little bit here?

You know, even Dan, they were celebrating like they won the NFC championship game. Yeah, no, I agree. And then you also have, yes, you also have, yeah, just emotionally, just a little less sharp. There was a lot into that game. They played a tight game. That was just an intense playoff game. Yeah. And you also have.

I might sprinkle the bucks. Yeah, I don't hate it. And then you have Campbell, if we wouldn't want to take an underdog money line, in this range, you want the variance. So Campbell's aggressiveness creates variance. So going for all the fourth downs is going to go to. If you don't get a couple,

that just introduces a lot of variance in this game. It's one of the things I don't like about the bucks in this game is that I think both offenses have advantages, but Bowles is super conservative. So like, this game could flip on the fact that first quarter, the lines have fourth and one of the 38.

and they go for it. Yeah, yeah, yeah. And then they get a touchdown. And then the Bucks have fourth and down seven, not the fourth and two at the 43 and bowls punts it. But we know Campbell's going to introduce variance into the game. I think the Bucks are going to move the ball. I think there's a potential they can come up with a good blitz scheme here

that throws golf off. And, yeah, I wouldn't be shocked at least. I think this will be a close game. Okay, night game. I mean, I don't even know what to say. I guess the only thing is, I would struggle betting against Andy and Mahomes. Like, I understand they can lose and they're bound to lose one of these games.

It happened to them a couple years ago at home when they were a better team to the Bengals, which actually aged pretty well because it turns out the Bengals were pretty good. Yeah. But, like, I just, if they're going to lose fine, I just would struggle having money, you know, with the other team as they're the underdog getting points with those two guys. Yeah. I mean, the Chiefs have a couple of advantages here. that just on the surface that they have two extra days of prep.

You know, the bills kind of got screwed with that. They're the two seed playing the three seed and they have two extra, two fewer days because the game got moved and they played a day later already. And the bills have a bunch of injuries. Because in that game, they have a bunch of injuries. Today's injury report is going to be huge. But like that linebacker, cornerback, who's going to end up playing for them? So I can't bet this game right now.

I got to see if they have like a cluster of injuries. They've lost like a guy a game. It feels like for like two months. like them and the dolphins. Yeah. And then if it's clustered, like three of their cornerbacks got hurt. Two of their linebackers were banged up. So that can matter.

Now, I will say, you know, I think three is the perfect number on this game, depending on the injuries, which is where it's at now. The Chiefs, I mean, look, I'm not, I don't care that they beat the, you know, the Dolphins practice squad in a igloo last week. All year. And by the way, the chief. This is pretty crazy. The Chiefs, the Dolphins are the only

playoff team the Chiefs beat all year. It's pretty wild. They didn't be a single other club team. And they didn't look good all year. Oh, because they lost that game of the Bills. They lost the Eagles. They lost the Eagles. They lost to the Bills.

Their division sucked. Yeah, their division was awful. They lost the Packers. And so, yeah, which is a shocking nugget. the one thing that where I think this game, if I had to pick who's going to win this game, it depends on the bill's injuries, but the bills are relatively healthy on defense.

You know, because this Chief's offense has not looked good all year. Now, it's still Mojones. You're the best quarterback on the planet. So if anyone wants to take the points, you take three points in the homes, who's like 18, 3 and 1 against the spread as an underdog or favorite of three or less?

But is there, like, right now, given who he's playing with, is there a difference between him and Josh Allen? with, you mean, from a gambling perspective, like to me, it's like I view them both as equals. Yeah,

I would, Mahomes is probably a little, a little weighted a little more. I mean, from a points by perspective, my homes would be more important, just marginally, like to the drop off,

because he doesn't have as much weapons. And you're, you're also relying on Alan's legs. But the, the biggest, I think, advantage in this game is, the Chiefs defense, which is remarkably improved this year. Very good against the pass, very good against creating pressure.

They're still horrendous against the run. 27 against the run, DVOA, Justin for opponent. And the bills have turned from, since Joe Brady took over an offense coordinator, they have the eighth highest pass rate. Now, since then, since week 10, since Brady took over, dead last. So they are now the most run-heavy team in the NFL. Believe it or not, with Josh Allen. So if you go back, do they come out here,

and the best defense against Mahomes is keep him off the field, and the best way to attack the Chiefs is to run on them, do the bills say, let's Dallas Cowboys this game? That game where they just came out and they used Allen's legs, they fed Cook, and they just ran it and ran it some more down Dallas's throat. and there's some similarities with the Chief's defense to Dallas's defense. You can run on Kansas City. That might be the biggest, that might be the biggest advantage of this game.

Because when he comes to the Chiefs, like, there's just not, their tackles are bad, which is one thing that people don't talk a lot about, but both their tackles are bad. So that's hurt their offense. And the bills can get a lot of pressure off the edge without blitzing, which is key, because you can't blitz Mahomes. The Dolphins had no players last week. You know, they had no edge, no line. So they were going to cover zero blitz.

and you just can't do that against Mahomes. But the bills don't blitz and then get pressure. That's key number one against Mons, otherwise you don't have a shot. And because the cheese tackles are bad, you know, they're going to be able to get pressure on homes. And then the second problem is their weapons are bad.

Rishie Rice has played really well lately. If Roussel Douglas plays, I think he is going to play. But he didn't play last week. McDermott said he's close. He's their top corner by far. You know, you can put him on Rice. And then you have good safeties and good linebackers to make they're healthy.

Again, these are all caveats. But you can just bracket Kelsey. And Kelsey is not the same player. Still, you know, he's still probably going to have eight, eight catches for 70 yards. But he's not the same explosive player. And then your other options are, you know, it's just underwhelming. So that's why this Chiefs offense, it's like bad protection. Yeah, the weapons aren't great.

So going on the road. But, you know, look, short week now for Buffalo, they have injuries on defense. I, you know, at the end of the day, I think Buffalo will win. But it'll be a close game. It's Bill's Chiefs. It'll be weird. And if I had a, you know, the most fitting thing that could happen is we change the overtime rules in the NFL because when these two last two teams played in that, yeah, whatever. And now both teams, even if you score a touchdown, the other team has to get a ball.

We have not seen an overtime game since then. So we have not seen an overtime game with the new rules. I'm very curiously with the team that wins a coin toss, because mathematically you should defer. Believe it or not, you should. Wait, so, wait. So in the regular season, it was still, if you. score a touchdown first game ends, but in the playoffs, both teams get to touch the ball.

Yeah. No matter what. So I score a touchdown on my first drive, I still get the ball. Obviously, I got a match. Yep, you got a match. And then from there, two scores. Mathematically, now a little bit depends on the game, but you should kick, defer, and then, you know,

you can get a stop, you know, and then, or, you know, and then get a field goal to win it. Or they could kick a field goal, then you can get a touchdown to win it or a field goal, you know, make that, it wouldn't work out if he went 80 yards down the field and scored touchdown, but how often does that happen? And they're playing, they're not playing to knowing they have to score. So, you know, it's a lot of good game theory there. But we haven't seen an overtime game since. So, and the bills have lost like eight straight overtime games. It would be absolutely hysterical and fitting. If this game goes to overtime, the bills win

the toss. The bills get the ball. They go down and score a touchdown. and then the chiefs then get the answer like the bills couldn't so I think this game's going to go weird anyone that I don't think I'm going to bet it but any I have a 50 to one bills futures I'll be rooting for the bills but anyone that just says look I'm going to take three with moans I won't argue with you for one second the prop I love in this game a buddy of mine kind of sent it to me I'm looking at it right now in draft kings you can get over under Josh Allen rush attempts at nine and a half, the over is basically plus one to one. You know, you look back, he's been between like 10 and 12, but this is the game where, you know,

some of those passing attempts, if they're covered, he's going to take off. They're going to have some design runs. Lots of yardage stuff. If you tell me he has 13, 14 carries, it's very, very believable in this game. I love that, actually. I like the over too. Yeah, I think they're going to go. I mean, like I just said, they've been the most run-heavy team in the,

league since Joe Brady took over. And yeah, you're going to get, number one, when you have elite quarterbacks in general, their rush attempts go up in the playoffs with, you know, obviously game of a lot with more on the line, you're more willing to run. You see that with Mahomes. You see that with Burrow. So you're going to get, you get increased run rush attempts by any elite quarterback in the playoffs, any quarterback in general, too.

But in this game in particular, with this new rush attack, and that's the way you, you attack this chief's defense. I mean, you're going to have, you probably have like four or five, you know, just scrambles. You also have, to keep in mind, the sneaks, they do, they sneak third and fourth and one now, and it's almost automatic with Alan. I know you got stopped at one time, but the, I called the Buffalo Bulldozer. It's a new field.

So there's a rush attempts. You could have four of them in one drive. And then I think, yeah, you could have five or six designed runs. Um, take off on a couple of past plays. Yeah. Oh, yeah.

Then five or six scrambles, four, uh, some sneaks, um, you know, some kneels. Uh,

so yeah, it's, I like that too. Who would the Ravens rather play? I think, that's a good question. But I, so I have a,

I'm a Ravens fan. So I think I would rather play, I think I would rather play the Chiefs. Um, which is awful to say because it's Mahomes. But they just haven't been right all year, and they cannot stop the run. Like our defense would just get so much pressure on them.

And we have the personnel. We have the linebackers and safety safety safety just remove Kelsey from the game. And then we have the corners. You just have to take out rice. And then we can bring all kinds of pressure without blitzing. So, and yeah, it's, close. It's very close, but I think this Chiefs team is more vulnerable. But then you're asking for Patrick Holmes? I don't know. If I had to do it for my life, I think I would end up saying

I'd rather see the Chiefs, but it's very close. I would not be comfortable. You know, in a weird way, it's not like Andy's thinking about it like this, but, you know, he's had a shitty season for their standards. Like, if this is your shitty season, you're in pretty good shape. I'd imagine they're going to get the Mike Evan, you know, like what Belichick and Brady used to do, they're going to get those type guys coming to Kansas City and they will draft some of their knees. They'll improve their offensive line. They'll be fine. Yeah. There's, I, you know, this is a huge game for Josh and Sean McDermott. You know, I mean, if they win, like, if the Chiefs win, will be like, oh, of course, Andy. But it's like, eventually, like, are you guys just always going

to lose these important games. Are you guys ever going to, like, is this ever going to happen for you guys? So I, you got Mahomes at home. That place to get a little tight, man. My home's at home. And you got a team that's unfazed by playing in the cold. I mean, Mahomes, I thought he, like you said, they were playing the practice squad and Igloo.

But him and Andy just like, yeah, it's called fucking throw some bombs to our shitty receiver. They didn't care at all. Yeah, Mahomes love. They are not going to be intimidated by the weather. Yeah, Mahomes loves playing the cold. He's like in the snow, too, like Brady. But he, yeah, this is Mahomes' first true.

road playoff game. He did play in the Super Bowl in Tampa against the box in Tampa, but that's not the same as a true road game. He had destroyed in that game. Yeah, I think that I'm so curious to see if the bills just come out and they say we're going to

try and Cowboys this game. And then you, you know, with Alan Cook and then you take your couple shots once the safety start coming down. But I think this game will be, it'll It'll come down with fourth quarter. I'm extremely confident in that. It'll be close. And then I think the Ravens would beat either,

but again, down in the fourth quarter. So the IFC championship game should be awesome. This game should be awesome. I would much rather, I'm a Ravens fan. I have a Ravens and Bill's future. I wish I had a 49ers future because the path for next week is, and then this week for the Bills.

is much cleaner. So, yeah, I'm really looking forward to both those games just from a football fan perspective. Do a quick look ahead. If the Niners were to win the NFC, are they an underdog to the Ravens in that game? I think no. I would make the four, you know,

for some odds makers I've talked to right after the game. So you don't remember the four-niners are six and a half-point favorites at home against the Ravens. Because the Ravens are favorite against everyone else. obviously right so probably like a point they're like a point or two over the bills the bills are the third best team power ratings wise um so then it throwing home field like the bravens will be close to a field goal uh favorite against the bills next week maybe two i uh yeah i think it'll be a round of field maybe a little less but up to a field goal but the four dives were six and a half

point favorites against the ravens at home which then you say look now they're only nine and half against the Packers makes it look pretty cheap. Ravens are much better than a field goal than the Packers. But obviously the Ravens have, you know, they crushed everyone since then. They've crushed the Niners. You adjust them. They've been adjusted a bunch. So they were, you know, the market was assuming that the Niners were like four points better than the Ravens, which was wrong. They're, you know, so they were closer to like two after that game is what some odds makers I talked to would put the Super Bowl line, the Niners would be two-point favorites. Now, the Ravens since then, you know, they beat the dog.

I was hoping the Niners would be like a three-point dog, and then I'd put like $5,000 on them. Now, the Ravens beat the shit out of the Dolphins. They beat the shit. They just were rolling teams. They got bumped a little bit more since. Now, both teams are 10-point favorites this week. So assuming they both win, nothing's really going to adjust. You don't get that much credit.

Yeah. Now, next week, the Ravens could get a little bit more credit than... They'd have a better way. They'd have a better way. They'd have a guess. It's going to be right now, it will be nineers minus one. But it could get to like. I feel like a lot of money would come in immediately on the Ravens, no?

I think a lot of public money. And public money can sway a Super Bowl line. I mean, everyone in their grandma is betting it. But I think, yeah, the Ravens would have just beaten the Chiefs or the bills, right? They already smoked the Niners in San Frans. I think you'll get a lot of casual. money that might like the Ravens, but there's a lot of sharp money that are going to be your biggest betters that make the diners a point and a half, two points better.

Yeah. So that would balance it out. Takes a lot of grandma's dad up to like 100 grand. Yeah. I don't think it'll get the three either way without injuries. So my guess now is San Francisco minus one. I think we'd all sign up for that. Okay, Stucky, let's enjoy the games.

Let's hammer those favorites and let's let's. Let's screw for Josh Allen to run wild. Yeah. Run fucking wild. Hopefully we can talk shit to each other on Super Bowl week about Niners' ratings rematch. Hell yeah, baby. Okay, Stucky, I'll talk to you next week. Yeah, good shit.

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