The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - Super Bowl Best Bets with Stuckey

Episode Date: February 8, 2024

John is joined by The Action Network's betting guru, Stuckey, as the guys dive into the best prop bets and parlays for the Super Bowl. 6:32 - Stuckey interview 13:57 - What will the pace of the game be 21:43 - 49ers D isn't good 26:36 - Can someone other than Mahomes win the MVP if KC wins 41:53 - Issues with SF and KC 50:15 - Confidence in the 49ers Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest. Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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terms, and responsible gaming resources. What is going on, everybody, John Middlecop, three and out podcast. Here is the plan today. We are going to put out a gambling-only podcast. I talked to Stucky. I think he was back in PA in Philadelphia, visiting some family,

and we dive in deep to everything about the Super Bowl. props, obviously the overall game, some of our thoughts, you know, MVP stuff, some just different flyer bets, you name it, we cover it. And I actually just saw a headline that 68 million people are going to gamble on the Super Bowl of 35% from last year, which I'm sure was an all-time high. Great time to be alive.

I feel like this time, as someone who's a podcaster, and is a degenerate gambler. I feel like I was born to live in the 2020s. Some people, it's like, I would have been a lot better in the 1940s. I would not have. I can't fix much. Not a great shot.

So I would say the 2020s were made for John Middilkoff, and luckily we get to talk about the Super Bowl, so I'm very, very excited. I just went third person there, but kind of jokingly. It was very sarcastic. You know, it wasn't too serious. And here's the plan.

We did a podcast every day this week. I'm going to bring my stuff with me. If you're listening to this on Thursday, I am in Las Vegas. And when I'm in Las Vegas, I might do a little podcast for us, maybe from the hotel room, the old cosmopolitan, see what's going on, see who I can run into and who I can rub elbows with at the volume party. and yeah, we will go from there. So this will be the big breakdown, gambling,

kind of discussing the game. And I would imagine Friday's podcast, a little lighter, a little more of a screw around podcast. But before we dive into my man Stucky from the Action Network, you guys know the drill. Download the official ticketing app

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We'd appreciate it. Okay. Super Bowl week is upon us. And I, like my man, Stucky, and bittersweet because this game is probably the best game in the history of games to gamble on, given that you can make 7 million different bets. But it also means that there is not a football game.

I don't even count preseason anymore. A meaningful football game till early September. That's a long. time. Stucky Action Network. He's got a Super Bowl podcast coming out. The tourney's not that far away. No one is more locked into college basketball on a random Wednesday night than

this guy. So Stucky, what's cracking, bro? Don't short us a week, by the way. Late August. Last week of August, we'll have like a game in Dublin in college football. But yeah. That's true. College football. It's regardless. It's

depressing either way. I remember growing up. I think that this past weekend when the pro I didn't see a highlight I didn't watch any of the Pro Bowl I used to love the Pro Bowl and I think like it peaked

like the peak Pro Bowl was 20 years ago this week when Peyton Manning they got it was like the final score was like 54 51 51 Peyton Manning led like a two minute drill

the defense was trying at the end the funny thing is they didn't get the onside kick but the NFC didn't take knees because it's like, hey, it's the Pro Bowl. So Peyton Manning got a chance to, they just chucked it in the end zone and fantasy picked it.

But, yeah, like the Pro Bowl, I mean, it's so bad now. Bro, I saw highlights on Twitter this weekend of like a deep bomb to Randy Moss, which I would get, he had a Minnesota helmet on, so early 2000s. The defensive line was full go. The quarterback had to scramble. Randy's getting double coverage. The DBs fly into each other. honestly it looked like a normal game

it's like the NBA All-Star game you watched in the 90s it was legit it was like Michael Jordan versus Shaq or what you know it was like felt legitimate now obviously the money is so outrageous none of these guys give a shit I'm with you I didn't see one snap

but it's not even football it's just it's flag football now so which is very on brand yeah I mean Sean Taylor rest in peace uh Brian Mormon that 20 2004 pro bowl game, Ed Reed, my favorite player of all time, he blocked a punt,

scooped it and returned it. It's a pro ball and this guy's going full out, full gear to block a punt. But speaking of depressing, yeah, the pressing weekend for me last week with the Ravens, which will lead him to the Super Bowl because that was not the team I saw all year. I don't know what their game plan was. They didn't run it. one of the least run-heavy game plans of any team in any game regular season or postseason of the entire season and they were the most run-heavy team in the league they didn't throw with play action i almost feel like they galaxy brain themselves um they said oh the chiefs are going to expect us to run and they overthought it and because if there's no other explanation to the what their game plan was you know they just spread it spread the chiefs out and throwing them with amar it's like your weakness versus their strength The only other thing that is worth bringing up because it's relevant to the Super Bowl is that this happened with Prime Brady as well.

So I'm really curious what happens with the 49ers if they get behind. Teams feel like they're behind by way more than they are. So it's like you're playing Prime Brady and you go down seven. Like the Ravens ran that game the entire game. There was no reason to not run the ball at all. But you feel like you can't afford to potentially just run it a couple times and have to punt and then they're going to score again. and you get this like panicked, we have to keep up, we have to throw,

we have to be super aggressive because of who we're playing against. You would see teams just abandon their game plans against Prime Brady, and you see it at times against Mahomes. And one of the biggest advantages the 49ers have in this game is obviously they're running,

their rush attack, their play action passing. So if they get behind, can they just stay? You know that Chanhan's going to have a script, but after that, can they just stay calm and relax? Because I feel like the Raiden's,

played that game and called that game like they were down 20 ever since they went down 7-0 they thought they were down 20 the entire game was very bizarre You know it's funny I heard Steve Young talking about He's like the crazy part about the playoffs Is when you're a good team

Your whole If something goes wrong early You look up and it feels like your whole Because it is it's just a one game situation It's like your whole season is just You know disappearing in front of your eyes And everyone, you know,

kind of freaks instead of, like you said. It's one thing. If you're the Niners, you're down 24-7. There has to be some urgency. But like sometimes you're down 10-0. It's three minutes left to go in the first quarter. It's like, fuck, everyone relax. You know, we see fumbles, picks, misfield goals. Just take a deep breath.

But that is not what happens. Now, the Monkin, listen, I, with you, like most people, hammer the Ravens in that game. You know, the one thing different between Shanahan and most, coaches is he will when he's down a little bit continue to run the ball. Now he not only has a star running back, but he has this receiver that can also, they can get, they can like do these hybrid college plays where they throw quick screens that have basically run plays. So they keep like some semblance of everyone taking a deep breath. Most teams though are like the Ravens. It's either like

a true run or a pass. What were some of those past plays? You know what I mean? This Chief's team, and this is where I get to the 49ers in this game, like start defending. even Andy Reid was asked about it on the opening ceremonies. He's like, it's not crazy there. He's kind of, you know, playing placate to the media. But like, it's not crazy their favorite. We've been up and down all season. They had an excellent season.

Like starting to finish, the Niners were clearly one of the best teams. If not, you know, beside the Ravens in that game, the best team throughout the season. So the thing with the Niners, I think that you question is like these last two weeks look a lot different than the entire body of work were the Chiefs. Honestly, there were a lot of similarities with the last couple weeks. They played in a lot of kind of gritty games. That's kind of how they played. They just won those two instead of they lost some throughout the season. But the Niners did not look like the team that we've seen the last two weeks.

I mean, their defense, Stucky, was getting fucking shredded. That makes me nervous. Like, I want to put an astronomical out on the Niners, but it's hard. Like, and I think they're going to win, but it's not like I'm, I was confident and cocky. going into the last, they're going to kill the Lions, or they'll win by double digits. Definitely the Packers. And then you got humbled and you got humbled quick. But when you can't stop anyone, especially in the run game, it's like having a bullpen

that can't get an out. It's very, you know, demoralizing. You know, you feel just, it's like a slow, just, you know, kidney shots on the ground. And the one thing with Andy Reid, this kid's got 24 carries in two of the last three games. This isn't, you know, 2006, Andy Reid. He's more willing to run it partly because. But Chaco is one of their best offensive players, right? Yeah.

You know, the way that the Chiefs run it at least is not, might not be able to take a full advantage of some of the 49ers issues in their run defense, especially on the edge, right? You're going up against some really good rushing teams. The Chiefs middle of the pack, but they've been better of late. I think that now in this game, I played from a side perspective. I didn't play the total. I could see it being high.

I think it's going to come down to the start. It's going to be a slow pace because I think both teams are going to run up more. That's 49ers play really slow. The Chiefs don't play particularly fast. The 49ers do not have a hurry-up offense. Yeah. So the pace will be slow. But from a side perspective, I did play the four.

So I made the spread around like 49ers minus 2.9-ish. And because you still have to look at the entire body of work. The Niners arguably should have lost the past two weeks, but they were the most dominant team in the NFL all season as a team that was, you know, they were at one point some odds makers had four to five points better than the next best team. Now the last two weeks, yeah, they arguably should have lost both games, but in a way it's like, all right, we survived that, we have two weeks. You have to remember this chief's team.

They played a Dolphins team that was completely decimated, you know, playing them outdoors and like frigid temperatures. You played a Bill's team. Bills on a short week. They had no linebackers left. Defensive back injuries. They were playing, you know, a guy that was gone on vacation, 60 snaps at linebacker and AJ Klein. They just got abused. And then the Ravens come out with this bizarre game plan and just don't run the ball. Don't throw a play action. So the Chiefs still have, you know, the wide receiver room isn't great. They've kind of shrunk who they throw it to. You know, they're leaning on the run. It's like, we're just going to throw it to Rice. We're just going to throw it to Kelsey. They kind of cut a lot of fat off their offense. But the tackles are still an issue.

And, you know, the defense is good, but this is a bottom five defense against the run, a bottom five defense against flash and passing. And you're going to give Kyle Shanahan in two weeks to prepare for that. So I played the Niners first half money line. I show a little value in the number. And what I'm scared about for the 49ers would be, I think anything that can happen late could, well, it potentially favors the Chiefs. You would, we'll start with special teams. You would trust the Chief's kicker, right? If you have big kicks late in the fourth quarter,

you're going to trust Butker over Moody. Defensive second half adjustments. You would trust Spagnola over Wilkes. You know, Wilkes, people talk about his adjustment last week. You know, the lion's still a chance to score. All he did was just play more man. And we'll see how much man he plays here because, you know, Niners play a lot of quarters, cover three,

which Mohams is historically done very well against. but there's not much else the diners will do from a adjustment perspective defensively. They're always going to have a four-man front. They're going to have their two linebackers back a little bit who are excellent. And then they can just change up the coverages a bit in the back end. But Spagnola is capable of making more drastic changes. And this Chief's defense is allowed under four points per game on average in the second half over their last eight games. You've got to remember last week they won in Baltimore.

They didn't score a point in the second half. and they still won. Granted, they got some redstone turnovers, but their defensive adjustments have been great. And then for as good as Purdy's been, this guy still, how many starts does he have under his belt for Super Bowl? If you have Mahomes who gets the ball late, right, down four versus Purdy who gets the ball laid down four, you're going to trust Mahomes to go down the field and get it done. So I think the Niners are the better team.

I show a little value in the number, but I played first half money line. I think their script will be excellent. I think in a way, you know, Shannon's always going to do what he's going to do. But seeing what the Ravens did against the Chiefs, I think just reinforces even more. You have to, you have to throw with play action. You have to run the ball. Well, that's kind of the crux of the San Francisco offense. So I think I'll have a ton of success on the ground, be able to sustain drives.

And then it's going to come down to, you know, can they, how big of a lead can they build? What are the second half adjustments from Spagnola? and then can you avoid Mahomes getting the ball late and going down the field and scoring and then you hope that you're you know you're at the kicker disadvantage doesn't hurt you but you're right and I don't think Shanahan will panic um it's just not who he is now granted it's this is usually the better team and that's one of the reasons why Shannon's usually conservative and he said this yeah like on fourth down he's like we're usually the better team with better players and not to be as aggressive on fourth down so does that this is my

mindset shift a little bit if they're down in the second half, but I trust him more than any coach to stick to the game plan and completely exploit what Kansas City's primary weaknesses are, which is defending the run against plaques and pass. The difference between plaquesion and not plaquesion on the chiefs, they go from a top five to bottom five pass defense. So Niners can establish the run, throw with play action even early. I think they're going to have a ton of success on offense. But I do worry a bit about those three phases in the second half, the Spagnola adjustments, the Mahomes late factor, and then just big kicks late, I would tend to side with Kansas City. So I played the 49ers first half money line was the first bet that I made. One thing with the 49ers offense is like a lot of their big plays come on not,

they're not bombs to Randy Moss. these are shorter plays that the guys break tackles. Chiefs easily are one of the better tackling teams. I mean, all their secondary is a very physical group. So, like, a lot of big plays that come from Debo, that come from Kittal, Joanne Jennings, even Iyuk, will break tackles and lead to an explosive play. Maybe a 15-yard gain turns into 45-yard gains. And that's an area that the Chiefs are just, they have to be one of the more physical

slash better tackling teams in the NFL. You could argue the best. And you've seen it the last couple weeks. They just tackle well in space. All their DBs, there's always been something early on with the 49ers teams with Harbaugh and then early on with Shanahan. Every guy on the team could tackle and it's such a huge advantage. Like you just have none of your DBs are, you know, wussies out there.

They're willing to fucking throw it around. The Chiefs have that. The 49ers like Ward will tackle, but like Ambrie Thomas, I'm the other guys going to just be a little hit or miss. They're just not great. Justin Reed feels like he's one of the better tacklers in the league right now. Yeah. So definitely from a physical standpoint.

So that's an area, you know, we've talked about this before. The 49ers dominated the NFC, right? They beat the crap out of the Cowboys and the Eagles, and then in games that they should have lost, they just beat in the biggest moments against the Packers and the Lions. Like they beat in the Rams, they beat them all. But they did struggle against physical AFC teams, right? Ravens worked them on that Christmas night.

The before Flacco showed up, the Browns beat them at home, and the Bengals before everyone on the, you know, Burrow got hurt, kicked their ass. and the Bengals went healthy are just a physical, tough, old school team. That's one area that like the chiefs are like that. You know, that's what's weird about this chiefs team, right? They're really wired more like the AFC North teams

for the first time in this Mahomes era where they've always been this sexy offense. I was looking, they have the number of two or three scoring defense in the league. And the Niners who have always been a defensive operation in their good teams previously with Shanahan with Garoplo and then Harbaugh are one of the top offenses in the league scoring-wise because they're quarterback. throwing a bunch of touchdowns this year.

So it's like, it's kind of a lot different from the matchup we saw last time where the Niners were working the Chiefs. We're shoving them around in that Super Bowl. And then they just imploded. But the Niners aren't built like that team because their defensive line, that's what makes me nervous about this Niners team

is like their defensive line just isn't that good right now. So that's a concern. And if your defensive line isn't good and that's the way you're built, shit. I mean, everyone's like, oh, the Chiefs receivers. Yeah, they're not as dependent on those guys anymore. Yeah, no, the Chiefs are like an NFC North team.

No, you brought up two really interesting points. One, just that Chiefs poured out a Super Bowl. It brings up the point. Don't panic. The Chiefs were down 20 to 10 with six minutes to go in the fourth quarter, 1, 33, 120. But the other thing is that the Chiefs 49ers game from 2022, Mahomes went bananas.

You know, we threw for like 450 yards. They put up 43 points. I'm curious to see what coverages. there's two things I'm really interested to say what coverages, Wilkes runs, and then, you know, does he go more man early? Now, granted, this Chief's offense is nowhere near as explosive as that one. And then on the other side does Spagnola Blitz. I mean, this is, he's known for his blitzes.

He's known for bringing pressure. But Brock Party, number one in the NFL, and touchdown passes, pass a rating, yards per attempt against the blitz this year. He's been phenomenal. So does Spagnola Blitz? And that might be one of the adjustments he makes to the half. Like if he wasn't blitzing, does he try to bring more exotic blitzes? Or does he try to throw Kurti off early in his first Super Bowl?

So I'm really curious to watch that. But I was going to bring up the point that you also just raised. We mentioned this. You know, we said when we were talking about the Ravens 49ers game, said, would this change anything with how you do either of these teams? I said, no, but it will be a huge talking point if the Niners lose this game, the AFC's, you know, success over the NFC, specifically against the 49ers all year.

it's certainly a question. And you can always fall back on the fact that the, it's just, Mahomes is an underdog. I mean, I'm kind of hypocrite in a way because I, last year, I said to you here on the show,

I said, you have the greatest quarterback on the planet as an underdog. How are you not going to take it? And so I bet the Chiefs is an underdog last year, this is a role, but I'm not here. I'll look potentially to bet them live if they get behind. But he has 10-1-1-1 against,

the spread as an underdog. If it ain't broke, don't fix it. But I, he hasn't thrown, has he not throwing an interception? Has it doesn't even have a turn ever worthy bro in, in the postseason. They've really cleaned up their offense. But you, in their, they had two drives versus Baltimore and then did nothing. And you have to remember that the bills and dolphins were decimated on defense, like just injury-wise, especially of the middle of the field.

And the homes put together, I mean, some of the throws you had to Kelsey. on the first two drives against Baltimore. That's just Mahomes. Like that's just the brilliance Mahomes is all it's going to be. Sometimes there's just no defense for that. The 49ers at least defend the middle of the field very well. They have great linebackers,

to defend Kelsey. The counter to that, though, is Kelsey just goes for 10 and 100 every single playoff game. I know. So, doesn't matter. So, but I will mention this is just that.

To me, to me, they got that, they got that late 90, Chicago Bulls thing. Scotty Pippen can barely walk into the arena and then all of a sudden he's locking down someone on defense and he scores 20 points and they win the champion.

It's like I don't care what Kelsey looks like now. Once you get in the playoffs, you just got to assume he's in peak form. Yeah, like I show a little bit of value on betting his unders, but like I don't do I really want to do that? Probably not. I will say a good tip for me. Do you think he has MVP value at 12 to 1?

You know, it's hard. You go back over the past, what, 20 years. A running back hasn't won it since, what, 96 when Terrell Davis won it. But I think that this is probably the best chance for a running back to win it in McCaffrey, because I think he's going to get a heavy workload. In order for a quarterback not to win it, I mean, because if you go back, the Chiefs had to run, Danny Williams at three touchdowns and didn't win the MVP.

Mahomes won it. But if you go back, the only other, in a tire end is never, won it for what it's worth. But if you go back over the past 20 years, you had guys like Edelman, Heinz Ward, I'm missing one or two others. Branch maybe. And by the way,

what's interesting is that those guys were like Ward. I think Larry Fitzgerald would have won it the one year that they would have won the Super Bowl, right? Yeah. And Brady... Had a chance. Yeah, Brady was like he'd won a couple MVP. Then it was like, all right, he already won two. They gave it to Branch. Then he already won two.

So maybe there's some Holmes fatigue. But when Cup won it to, when those, you know, what you have to do is you have to have like eight, nine catches over 100 yards, two touchdowns. That's certainly possible for Kelsey. And he has all the narrative swirling around them. And like, so the question is like what would someone have to do to win it from a Holmes not to win it if the Chiefs win the game? So I don't like we already saw a running back at three touchdowns and not once. I don't think Pacheco can win it. So I think it would be.

Chris Jones, a Vaughn Miller type game. Yeah. Yeah. That's the defensive guy. A couple of defensive guys are one of very random guys like Malcolm Jones, Dexter Jackson. Von Miller was more of a household name. You got to get like you got to run into a turnover. You got out a lower scoring game too, which I don't necessarily, I don't trust that there's

not going to be enough offensive numbers here. So I'm not looking at any defensive guys. but the two guys on the Chiefs that I would look at are either Kelsey or Rice. Those are the two guys. So the argument for Rice, you're getting much better odds. And the 49ers theoretically should be able to cover Kelsey. And there's no one really else. So Rice could be that guy that ends up getting eight, nine catches, you know, 110 yards and two touchdowns.

That's the key. And then maybe they don't give it to Mahomes. So, yeah, I think that those are the two you would look at. And then on the niner side, yeah, I think that this could be one of the few chances that we've seen in the past 20 years and maybe we'll see for the next 20 years where a running back can win it in McCaffrey. Because I think that, and for what it's worth, I also played one of my favorite props is Elijah Mitchell under one and a half carries. I just, you might look and say he had four carries last week. He came in because McCaffrey hurt his neck and then got four. carries the end of the game. Before then, McCaffrey had 100% of the carries in the postseason.

I don't think that they're going to hand it to Mitchell here. He's not a good pass blocker. They're going to ride with McCaffrey who got him there. And then you're going to have Debo Samuel runs. Debo's their backup running back in this game. Yeah. Yeah. So, you know, you're basically betting against McCaffer getting injured at any point. So under one in the half. See, Stucky, I do, and I'm not disagreeing with you on McCaffrey. He could easily have. You just ride the shit out of him You slow down the game He has 120 yards

Maybe three touchdowns And you win 28 to 17 And he just kind of dominated Throughout the game He would get it I do think there's some value in Debo A little bit quote unquote A long shot 20 to 1

Bright light player Last week 8 for 90 In the Super Bowl as a rookie He had 5 for 40 And he was kind of a no name guy then And he was kind of returning as well Kyle likes to use him In the game plan

several different ways So if you, like you said, if you look at it, he gets, let's say, seven to eight catches and gets, you know, 80-ish yards and a touchdown. What if he gets three or four carries in one of those carries he busts for 45 yards and a touchdown? And if one of those big touchdowns happen in the second half to swing the game, I do think there would be some momentum for him. Now, again, it's a little harder for him to do it. But I think when you look at the value, he's a guy that just could, if I tell you that he has 14 touches in the game between. catches and and handoffs. Like him and McCaffrey could account for, what, well over 30 between the two of them, right?

Yeah. Because sometimes Kittal's tough because he could just have no catches and play a big role or just one catch for like 15 yards and block. You know, Iukes kind of hit or miss. He can have really good games, but he also can do nothing. I think it's a lock that Debo and Christian McCaffrey are getting a ton of touches. And it's just about which one of those, you know, breaks off the big run, which one of the, in the red zone are the guys that get it through. Because one of them, to me, could easily have two plus touchdowns.

And then if you like Debo, it's almost like you could parlay a couple of things. Like Debo anytime touchdown plus 135. Debo MVP and maybe Debo, you know, over 60 yards catching and kind of do it that way to get a pretty good odds on something probably, you know, I mean, you'd be talking like 45, 50 to 1. Over rushing yards to 14 average, I don't hate. This is usually when, you know, big Super Bowl, you look back in big game. He's going to be, you know, he's two weeks to get eaten healthier, and he looked obviously healthy in the Tennessee championship games.

He's just a bright lights guy. Like Christian McAfree's slow, steady, you always depend on him. Debo's one of those like, you know, you circle a game. You're like, yeah, he's going to fucking bring it. And Kyle likes to use them. Yeah, and in the play action, I think they're going to use them in the run game creative ways. Yeah, and in the case of McAfre, Chiefs have struggled to cover running backs out of the back field, but you can kind of use Samuel in that way.

And then maybe Willie Gaye I mean Willie Gay's hurt Right? Yeah Yeah So it's like that's a pretty big You know

Missing one of your linebackers who can run Yeah and there's There's there's a chance This is an outside chance But maybe they didn't throw Debo back To like for a return So you know Then if you get a big return

Then you're really They've done it this year When they had some injuries So why wouldn't they do it in the Super Bowl? Yep Especially like second half High Leveraged spot And then you're not as concerned

About injuries or anything So you could see him Ravens did that with like Ed Reed a couple times. One issue betting on Debo and Christian, unlike Kelsey, like Kelsey just is very durable in these big games. There are just moments you look over there and one of them's going like this or one of them's getting their leg worked on. That would be the concerning thing about Mitchell under one and a half.

That's basically what I'm betting against. I'm just betting against McCaffrey not getting hurt. Staying healthy. If he stays healthy, Kyle gives him unlimited carries in like week four against the fucking Atlanta Falcons. you better believe the Super Bowl. He's going to ride these guys, not worrying about injury. They can get healthy.

OTAs. He doesn't care about any of that crap. Yeah, I think like 5%. 5% is a little high too that the McAfre gets hurt. And then, yeah, I mean, or like if he's just gassed or something or he has to get something touched up. That's basically what I'm betting on here because I don't think that they're going to get Mitchell and he cares.

It's Debo and McAfre. That's it. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but in current. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care which I'll say. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music.

The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people.

I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jett. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we picket here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill,

waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because. of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so you all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence.

Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your For one prop, I kind of like first drive 49ers field goal missed. Like if that thing's over 40 and, you know, a lot of pressure on Moody, you know, that's 20 to 1.

That's a little bit of a flyer there. I don't mind that. I also, I want to see what Chattanoa does on an early fourth down with a potential long kick. There's, you know, keep in mind that this, these are a great. kicking conditions, great punning conditions. It's a little bit of altitude indoors, no weather. So if he has like a 48-yarder, say it's fourth and four from the 31 on the first drive. Does Shannon go or kick?

I don't know the answer. I really don't know what he would do. I don't know either. He can, he's probably more inclined even. It's crazy to say to kick. Now, once that guy misses a few. field goal. Then it's done. Then it's done. But I do think early on he's wired like Bill Parcell's 1983. Now he will change because this guy's give him room to change. Or I think Andy's

kind of proven he'll be a little more aggressive nowadays. Obviously, that's the other thing. The elephant in the room in this game is the chiefs don't have that much to lose, right? They're just trying to be like, we now sit at the table with, you know, the elephant. and Montana's and Brady's. You could argue they're already kind of there. You know, Andy and Kelsey and Mahomes' legacy, even Chris Jones. Like, this is, the pressure to me in this game is on the Niners. It's like, if not now, then when.

You just avoided two disasters. You know, this is easily the least, it's hard to say least talented because their defense is really good. But like, this is the worst team start to finish of a season so far of the Chiefs for the last four or five years. And it's like easy travel. for you guys. Like they're just, you're healthy.

There are just no excuse. Your quarterback makes nothing. You've built up this team. That's where the pressure, like you said with Kyle, to me, Andy kind of gets, get ready for like a ring

around the Rosie. He's like, he's going to have some fun. If he loses it, there's not a soul that's going to be like, yeah, he's still the best coach and he's still the best quarterback

and Kelsey's the best tight end we've ever seen. Where it's like, people look at the chiefs of time for just getting here. Like just getting to the Super Bowl. Rightfully so. On the road,

two big dogs. And not like dogs where it's like, this is crazy. They're a dog. It's like, yeah, they're going to lose. Yeah. Hell, we were talking during the season. Like, yeah, the Chiefs probably won and done playoff team. Yeah.

And this is kind of their patriot moment. Like, are you really betting against us? And now we're playing it. We're still the underdog. And it's like, I don't know. Does Kyle get tight? That's what makes me nervous about betting on this game because they're, one side, it's a Super Bowl.

So obviously everyone's nervous and hyped up. But there's going to be a looseness with the Chiefs. I'm like we're kind of playing with House Money. And there is, for all these guys, there's a chance of the Niners, even if they're good

the next five years, never make it back. Dan Campbell said it after the games. I looked at the guys, I said, we're not guaranteed ever to come back here. Now, the Niners have been to the championship game a bunch,

but I don't know. That's the one thing that makes me nervous about the night. You could feel it at the last couple games, right? It was like Super Bowl robust, and then all of a sudden you're down.

You're like, God, damn, this is going to end like this. Happened a little with the Ravens, but at least with the Ravens, like Lamar is under a long-term contract, Harbaugh. You know, it's... You still don't know if you're going to get back. No, there's no guarantee.

Youngest quarterback ever in NFL history to start in a Super Bowl. I think he was 23 in change. Never got back. Who would have thought Dan Marino was never getting back to the Super Bowl? You just, you never know. And yeah, you get a longer half-time. You have a lead. Do you get tighter?

You know, Purdy, one of the things that I, I've liked about, and I've always liked about Purdy, and he's shown it the last two weeks, is that he's just been resilient, right? And he's, but this is different. It's a Super Bowl. So does he get tight and, you know, no one of you're playing against, which is why I went with the 49ers money line in the first half? I think this, like, what it boils down to if you played this game?

Does he have, I mean, if they're going to win, the odds of a quarterback the last 20 years is like 60, 70 percent at almost two and a half to one, he's got to. to be, if you like the Niners to win, putting some money on Purdy is. It feels like a pretty good bet, right? Yeah. Yeah. I think, but just, I go back to last week. Now, the Niners' defense isn't as good as the Ravens defense, but their offense is better. And so the Chiefs will have a little bit more offensive success. Because again, they didn't not, they literally did nothing last week in the second half. After those first two drives,

they did nothing. But part of it is they didn't have to do much. But last week, going to that game, I was confident the Ravens are going to win because I thought they were going to run it and throw a play action. Well, they just had to do it. to do neither. But the 49ers will always do that. And I think that they'll just be able to sustain drives more consistently. And I think that'll be the difference. But I am the reason I bet first half instead of full game is I'm afraid of the adjustments. I'm afraid to just the nerve factor that you said, the experience of Mahomes, and then just if you need a big kick late, I would trust Butker, obviously much more than Moody. So that's why I went with first half money line. But I think that

the Niners' offense has the biggest advantage of any group in this game, which should ultimately decide it, but the spreads too, like it can obviously go either way. You're betting against the best quarterback on the planet, who all he does is win as an underdog. So, but that's, that's where I think the biggest edges. Niners running, throwing the play action, where the Chiefs have been abysmal all year. Can they stick to it? I think they will, and especially early, with the script that Chattahan's going to have here. I think they're going to come out with a good sense of urgency after the past two weeks. I think that they'll get out early.

A little dicey or late. One group that jumped out to me is, you know, the Niners interior offensive line is not great, right? Their center and their two guards, very hit or miss. The Chiefs lost a really good guard to a peck injury for the season. Now, Mahomes, like you mentioned before we hopped on, doesn't get sacked that often. But beside Aaron Donald, I mean, you could argue three of the best interior pass rushers. I mean, when Armstead's healthy, obviously Hargrave and Chris Jones are just elite interior pass rushers. All of those guys are plus odds to just have basically a half a sack.

And to me, I'd be a little stunned if Chris Jones, if Purdy goes sackless. And if he's going to get sacked, you would say the likelihood being Chris Jones up the middle feels pretty good. And the thing with Armstead, like, listen, Mahomes, his savviness and instincts are elite. one thing, he's just, he's enormous. So he can just grab you, like Chris Jones from really,

really far away. And if he's able to smoke one of those guards, same thing, you know, Hargrave's smaller, but he's so quick, I wonder, I'd be stunned if,

if some of those don't hit. Yeah, especially if one of the teams down, you know, so, you know, you're talking second half, maybe down 10 plus points,

two scores. The Chiefs, I mean, Andy will pass every play. Kyle is a little different, but even when the play action stuff. His guards can get fucking smoked. Yeah. I also think that

the, I mean, the cheese tackles are bad and they've been bad all year. You might see Armstead kickout to end some, I mean, with how bad Chase Young has looked late. So he might get some You get both of two sacks plus 350 right now. Yeah, that's I don't hate it, but yeah,

it's tough because Mahomes is so good at evading sacks. How about this one? Bosa sack and Warner 7 plus tackles? plus 175. I don't mind that. Warner's getting 10 tackles, right? He's going to have a day.

Yeah, I actually kind of like Purdy under two and a half stacks. I played a little bit of that. He's only gone over that four of 18 games. Now he's playing a defense that was top three in the league in sacks, but I think the diners are going to run at a ton, throw a claction,

and I don't necessarily think the Chiefs are going to blitz as much as they usually do. Purdy's been so good against the blitz. Spagnolla will. his game plans based on the opponent. So I don't think the Chiefs are going to be completely blot-heavy. And I think that the Niners get out in front. So I actually played under Chiefs getting 2 and S-X,

but under Purdy taking 2 and S-X. I don't mind the Armstead one. I don't mind that Bosa Warner combo either. And then a four fun one, my overtime guy, who's like a wizard of pricing overtime, says that there's actually value in this game going to overtime. which I never would think. Everyone wants to bet these,

a lot of times he's betting these yes things is, you know, there's sucker bets, like betting there's an octopus like 15 to 1. You go back in NFL history, it's like 2% of games have one. So it should be like 50 to 1. Will there be a successful onside kick at like 12 to 1?

It's like, first of all, you need an outside kick. And second of all, they're like 2%. Like you can't get an onside kick. That's a terrible bet. Will there be a safety usually is a terrible bet? But this one, my guy says there's value in this game going to overtime at like 13 to 1.

So I sprinkled some on it. And it would be amazing if we get, you could get a, you have the new overtime rules, which we've never seen. I was trying to get some books to post double overtime odds. I wouldn't even know how to price that, but I didn't see any out there. But yeah, I'll be probably rooting for overtime. So hopefully the Niners go up. The Chiefs catch them. Niners, women in overtime, for your sake.

That's how I'm hoping the game plays out. And then McCaffrey doesn't get hurt. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care where you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clipper Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, the Clifford Show.

This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast,

it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast.

I'm Sam Jette. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line.

We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

A couple big picture gambling things. I don't know if you had a chance to read that article on the Jets about internally how they're a fucking disaster. Yep. If they're over under, this, you know, whenever that comes out in a couple months is, to me eight or above. I think they got implosion written all over them. 40-year-old guy coming back, an offensive coordinator who's clearly not that good.

I mean, this is a little look ahead, but that's a number that I'm... And I was a guy that bought into him this year. I'm like, I think the Jets' wildcard team, I probably would have been wrong because he would have got hurt no matter what with that offensive line. But now he's a year older, he's injured,

the pressure. I think them and the bears, anytime you go into a season with just kind of this elephant in the room about your coach. You know, the bear's going to have a rookie quarterback. But with this Rogers, the 40-year-old thing, I think they got, we've seen it so often in football history, right?

This type situation just kind of implode. Yeah, I'm shocked they didn't like blow, like, I'm shocked that Salo was kept. There wasn't more. I agree. They have the potential to just everything goes wrong and then you have to blow it all up next year. So, yeah, there's going to be so, is going to be good next year again. I mean, it's going to be better, assuming people can stay healthy.

Yeah, they don't get a last place schedule. Patriots have that. So, yeah, I haven't dug too much in the next year, but, yeah, there's certainly not a team I'm looking to back. No, well. Well, let me ask you before you go. How confident, scale 1 to 10, how confident are you in the Niners? I was more confident last Super Bowl against Coach Reed and the Chiefs. I would say I was very, very confident the last two weeks.

in the playoff games and I got humbled fast. I mean, I thought the Packer game was so weird, but last week they were getting there, or two weeks ago getting their ass kicked. I mean, that's one of the more miraculous playoff comebacks you're going to see. I mean, at that price, or excuse me, at that, you know, the score. All the bounces that went their way, yeah. Yeah, and even Shanahan said, like one huge variable playing Dan Campbell is like,

he'll go for it. And if you stop them, it's a huge swing in the game. And that happened definitely when he decided not to kick the field. goal. And, you know, they couldn't have, you know, the fumble with Gibbs, the falling drive, it enabled them to come back like that. But what, it's weird, right? Because you look at the Packers, Aaron Jones went healthy, is a top five back.

Gibbs is easily one of the most explosive backs. So their run defense is a little off. Well, they're playing just, I mean, Aaron Jones is an elite player. And Gibbs is like one of the fastest players in the league. Like you said, the Chiefs running game. It's more like power. Yeah. Yeah, are they going to bust like 40-yard runs?

Like that was part of it was like demoralizing these runs that were long. Like, Pachaco's more likely to get like six yards. Yeah. But not is he going to have like back-to-back 23-yard carries? Probably not. Yeah. And the Packers and lines have good tackles and they can run outside zone. And that's where the 49ers are really weak running outside.

Maybe the chiefs are a better matchup for them than the Ravens would be. Yeah. If they ran it. Yeah. No, I agree. The Chiefs run game is all year. It's like middle of the pack. It's good.

It's not great. And the way that they run it, I think, is a decent matchup. Now, like, can Chase Young, you know, hold the edge and they're probably going to attack him in the run game. So I'm curious to see, like, the rotations, like, then do you end up kicking armstead out there? Use more Kim Law. So they might attack Young. That's a guy I'd be worried about. But the Chiefs run offense, I would.

wouldn't be as worried about as what we saw against the Lions and the Packers. I'd just be more worried about Mahomes magic, basically. And now their offense is better. They've cut out like all the fat, all the guys who were dropping balls and they're really just focused on a couple guys. But that also makes it easier to try and game plan for when you have two weeks to prepare. So, you know, it's just sometimes Kyle Hamilton gave up his first touchdown of the year. he was blanketed all over Kelsey.

Mooms just, I could have went out there and handed it to him. He just bid. It was an absolute beady right into his hands in the corner of the ends. Like that's, he just had to do about that. The thing that makes me nervous is not even the players as much as the coaches because these coaching staffs, I mean, this is, you know, Kyle, obviously Andy's currently probably the best coach in the league. Kyle's a top five guy.

But we talked about it earlier. like Andy's just so free now once he won the one it was like he struck oil then he won the second and now it's like and he's got this defensive coordinator that they go back so long that he never has to worry about leaving who's obviously one of the elite

big game defensive coordinators of like our lifetime he's like the Belichick version of what Parcell's at I mean he's fucking dominant he's beat everyone that's mattered in playoff games and obviously in the Super Bowl yeah so that's a huge concern of mine I don't think that there's many adjustments that the Niners can make.

Well, they can blitz linebackers, but then opens the middle of the field. Yeah, you don't want to really blitz Mooms. So, like, yeah, I mean, that you could do that, but I don't think you would want to do that. Mooms is like the greatest of all time against the blitz. So the second half adjustments definitely would favor Spagnola, you know, over almost any coordinator. So I'd definitely be worried about that. And yeah, you're right. The Chiefs, they can not only play like the Underdog card, like Andy Reid mentioned that.

Like, you know, as you meant, they said, hey, we're the underdog. I'm sure he's playing that card. But they also can just play looser. So, yeah, I'm so curious to see how the Niners handle that if they have the lead in the second half. But I ultimately think it'll be a good game competitive throughout. To me, it's like this would be, as time goes on, you'd like, oh, if I'm Kyle Shanahan. I lost to Andy Reed and Patrick Mahomes twice in Super Bowls. It doesn't sound that crazy.

Just like Pete Carroll going, well, I lost to Belichick and Brady in a Super Bowl. Well, then you examine it. It's like, well, you were favored twice. I don't know how this game's going to play out, but you had a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. So there is context behind it. I don't want to say you're the big favorite in this game, but I think clearly, I don't know.

I mean, most people would agree that they have the better team top to bottom. So it's like, Kyle, if you're not going to win this time, are you going to be, you know, now Andy was this way for a long time, and it took him getting Patrick Baholms to just completely throw that narrative in the trash. Well, you know, if he can't win with this version of his team, like this team's never going to be better probably, maybe next year, but like the windows now definitely never have a better opportunity. Well, especially because the NFC was weak this year.

And, you know, these things go in ebbs and flows. Like, look at the NFC norm, right? The Bears have the potential. He saw their defense getting better. If they get a quarterback, the line. The Lions are in position to be good for a while. The Packers are in position to be good for a while. The Vikings, they made a lot of progress this year.

They're going to have a quarterback, and they didn't have a quarterback this year. That one division. The Rams are going to keep getting better. They got a bunch of young players. Yeah, so like the NFC this year was just right for the picking. So that adds to it. Eagles imploded. Yeah.

So, yeah, like their opportunity, you never know when you're not going to get back. So, yeah, there'll definitely be questions for Shad Ann warranted or not. And then his legacy will depend on. If he doesn't win this game, does he get back and win one again? If not, yeah, even though he lost to Mahomes and Reid, there still will be questions. And this is as good as an opportunity as you're going to get. Yeah, I mean, I think the good thing for him is clearly like he's a football guy. Like he's not looking to go to the media or whatever.

Like if you look and Andy was the same way early on in his career, but he only got to the game once. right? If I would have told you he would have got to the game multiple times with that defense you know, who knows? Maybe they just, maybe they get one. You get to the game multiple times, like look back at Marvel-Levy. What's the statistical chances if you just ran like in the history of the league, you go to four straight Super Bowls and not win one? It's probably very slim, right? So, yeah, I mean, I think they're going to win, but shit, I don't have that much confidence on put money on them. Okay, Stucky, well, It's been a hell of a run.

It's been a fun season. We've basically seen it all this year. It's hard to get much better, and we'll be back at it, I guess, next year. So take it easy, bro. Enjoy the Super Bowl. Yeah, it's a good season. Let's close it strong. And good luck to your Niners.

I wish they were playing the Ravens, but go Niners, especially first half. But enjoy the game, everybody, and good luck on your bets. The Volume. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not. not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan,

so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of taun tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith Rule of Two. Listen to Stuff to Blow Your Mind on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever,

you get your podcast. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.