The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - TNF Reaction, Broncos Totally Screwed, Good vs Bad Owners, Best Bets

Episode Date: October 13, 2023

John reacts to Thursday Night Football and gives his reasons why the Broncos are up the creek without a paddle and why Russell Wilson could be playing his way OUT of the Hall of Fame. He draws a parallel between an advantage the Chiefs currently have and one the Patriots had during their dynasty run, explains why ownership is the most underrated factor in an NFL team’s success, and why a college game this Saturday could determine who is the third quarterback taken in the NFL draft. Stuckey from the Action Network joins John to talk about some of the best football bets of the weekend. Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest. Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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That's FOR the people.com slash J OHN. Or pound law, pound 529 from your cell phone. This is a paid advertisement. What is going on, everybody, John Middilcoff, 3 and out podcast? How are we doing? Well, probably better than Sean Payton and Russell Wilson, who just lost again to the Kansas City Chiefs, who are in full control like always of the AFC West

and kind of of the AFC, Powerhouse franchise. We'll dive into that game. as well as just some other stuff around the NFL, maybe even talk a little college pro prospect draft with Michael Pennix and Bo Nicks, one of the biggest games so far in college this year. Oregon, going up to Seattle and playing the Huskies. So we'll talk a little bit about that.

No mailbag today. We will have just, we'll talk football, and then I'll go to Stucky, Action Network, talking gambling, a little college, a lot of pro games. He's got great nuggets. This guy's a professional gambler. Love talking to him about betting on football. And I took his advice last week.

I bet the Steelers against the Ravens. And let me tell you, that was a freaking roller coaster. But not only they cover, they went outright. So we will talk gambling with Stucky. And I'll probably manually, if I'm bored this weekend, answer some of your questions. Because I just, you know, put my house together. And I just watched my Amazon Prime on my brand new TV, 85 inches. Looking good.

Not going to lie. You know, all I brought to the table, it didn't design the house, didn't have much to do. I picked the front door and the size of my living room TV. And I cut a lot of checks. But other than that, I didn't bring much to the table. But the TV was a purchase that really was high up on my priority list. Not anyone else's, but on mine. So enjoyed watching that game on a nice Samsung, no free ads, but legit TV.

Appreciate everyone listening. If you listen on Collins' feed, make sure you subscribe to the podcast. Three and out with me, John Middlecough. Also stuff's on YouTube and yeah. So you find me on Instagram. Probably on there bullshit in about football over the next couple days if I'm bored. Firing my DMs. At John Middlecoff is the Instagram and we will bang out a bunch of mailbag questions next week.

Let's dive into the podcast. Do you want to go to a football game? You see Swifty tonight. Do you want to go see Taylor Swift? Do you want to go see any concert, any comedy show? We'll go to your smartphone and download the official ticketing app of this podcast. It's called game time. Friends of the program, partners of the program.

I use their app. Why? Because it's awesome. Interactive maps of every venue you want to go to, a stadium, an arena. You can pick by price point. And when you sign out, use the promo code John, J-O-H-N. promo code John J-O-H-N to get $20 off your first pair of tickets. What's funny is this game actually went by pretty close.

quick. At one point in time, it looked like it was going to finish well before eight Pacific Standard time. And usually if I eat dinner around 7.30, 7.45, the game doesn't end for another 30 minutes. And I'm looking up, and I'm starting to kind of put my thoughts as I'm slamming my cheeseburger. What am I going to talk about? Do I want to lean positive and start with the Chiefs and start with Andy Reed and the defense of Patrick Mahomes? And I said, well, we got to stay true to who we are. And we got to start with the Denver Broncos. Because first and foremost, I think they're in the middle of one of the worst transactions in NFL history. It's not really debatable at this point. Russell Wilson trade is just an utter disaster. It's one they would give anything to have a redo. But you don't get redos in the NFL. This is their quarterback, the contract, they owe him the money, and they're stuck with it. They're not going to be able to unload him.

Sorry, Bronco fans. He's going to be your quarterback for the foreseeable future. And tonight was pretty embarrassing. He did not throw for over 100 yards. Now, I understand, road game, short week, Chiefs defense really good. I'm paying a guy if I'm the Denver Broncos, if I'm the Walton family, if I'm Sean Payton, I can't get over 100 yards from my quarterback. Two interceptions.

One was tip, but the other one was pretty terrible. Let's face it. I've heard this all year long. Russell's playing a lot better. Well, you know, it's like, hey, how was that sandwich? One to 10. And a guy goes like, nine. You're like, that's an incredible sandwich.

But if the guy goes, you know, it's like a two. It's like, that's terrible. So if the next sandwich you eat is a four, it doesn't mean that four sandwich is that good. It just means it's better than the two. So yeah, is he playing okay this year? Sure, relative to last year, but the guy they traded several players for,

a ton of first round picks, and paid all this money, they're expecting to be a star. And those days are over. So we just need to come to grips with who Russell Wilson is. He's an average player who can't have okay days above average days, but he also has a lot of below average days. And the guy that they thought they once were getting, right, was even if he wasn't quote unquote star, a top three quarterback could be a top eight quarterback, and he's not sniffing that anymore. And then we know all the other issues in the organization.

Sean Payton's trading guys left and right. I would expect the general manager not to be there for long. But what do they do? honestly, what do they do? Because I threw this out. I think I've said this on the podcast. I've definitely tweeted it that Sean Payton has some Gruden vibes when he came back to the Raiders.

Now it doesn't parallel each other, right? Sean Peyton took one year off. Gruden took a decade. It's not like Sean Peyton was out of the league that long. But when he took time off, he was clearly run down and he jumped at $90 million. And a lot of people have talked about this, including Coward. And I've talked about he was going to be a package deal with Vic Fangio. Well, if you're going to be a package deal with Vic Fangio, which is the right move,

you can't go to the Denver Broncos where he's not going to come with you. And then you go to a place where you're with a quarterback, then let's face it, their personalities have never made much sense with each other. And especially if the guy's not going to be a good player, it's going to be a miserable experience. I was texting with a buddy in the league a couple days ago, and we were talking about the miserable office ratings. And anyone that's worked in the NFL, anyone that's worked in football, high school included, Division I, college football, or the NFL,

When you start losing, the building is not fun. I've only worked in one other kind of corporate setting, and that was radio. And on the worst day, it never sniffed being close to as down, is negative, and is miserable in a football office after a loss, after a losing streak, during a losing streak. It's hard to really verbalize it. And I'm a podcaster. It's all you do, you spend, you know, 70, 80, 90, 90, hours in the office and when you're losing, no one smiles. It's not fun. And I pick Belichick and I got

pushback. Belichick's always surly. He was angry when they were winning championships. Sean Payton is a guy that runs hot. That building, to me, could just be an all-time miserable area for players, for coaches. And what's their fix? Honestly, what's their fix? Because the Gruden comparison, he attempted to trade a player and get a bunch back. and it essentially tanked their season in Khalil Mack. Their problem was they missed on all the picks, but they made a big picture move, and it just backfired. Sean Payton can't do that.

He's got no player to trade. I guess he could trade Patrick Sturtain, but what's the point of doing that? Like, I would just keep that guy, right? So I just really think that they are in a tough spot. That's really the only guy that has any value on their team in terms of netting them first round picks back, but their situation is another disaster. The quarterback feels like for every good game he has, then he comes right back and has a bad game.

And their coach doesn't feel like he has any answers. And what's the ultimate result? They're going to end up firing a defensive coordinator, so he's going to be in the offseason looking for a defensive coordinator. They're spending a ton of money on a lot of different people, right? I mean, they just broke the bank this offseason on McGlinchie, Russell Wilson's contract's about to kick in. So it's not like they're just flush with salary cap space.

never in a million years. Like even if I thought they weren't going to live up to the offseason hype, I would have guessed eight and nine, you know, a competitive seven and ten. I mean, they look like a three or four win team. They look like a team who is squarely in the mix to get Caleb Williams. Think about that. I mean, the other team is technically the Bears,

but it's because of Carolina, has a rookie quarterback who's five foot nine, 180 pounds. This team has a $45 million quarterback named Russell. Wilson, which at one time, and now it's becoming debatable, is he even a Hall of Famer? I always thought he was, but you start having games like this, seasons like this. Sometimes you're remembered the way it finished, not the way it started, and I think the way it's going, I don't know. I don't feel as strongly. So the Denver Broncos, think about this if you're the Chiefs, because one of my comparisons to the Chiefs is the third iteration of the

Belichick Brady Patriots. The first one was the Bruce Vrable, Troy Brown, led by Young Brady. The second version was Randy Moss, Welker. That team never won a Super Bowl. They got to a couple, but they never won. And then the third iteration was the Edelman, Grinkowski, McCordy, High Tower, kind of that group. And that group was pretty unreal.

That like four or five, six year span of that group of players was one of my more enjoyable, just as a fan. lover of football. But one thing they really benefited from was the disaster that was the division. Now, I always, people like, well, their division's so easy, they kicked a shit out of every other good team. The Colts, the Texans were always pretty feisty. They dominated them, the Steelers.

So, yeah, they were going five and one and six in their division, but they were housed in everyone else. But they did get five, six, basically free wins. And that's kind of what it feels like right now for the Kansas Chiefs. They got the Denver Broncos who are just. I mean, the buildings on fire. You got the Raiders who have issues left and right. And then the team that should be the most competitive team has Brandon Staley as their head coach.

So the Chiefs, even as they've transitioned from the Tyreek kind of, you know, bomb and score points team to this defensive team, which honestly probably translates more consistently to the playoffs. When you can really play defense, like you're going to be in it no matter. how your quarterback plays. And clearly their offense is nowhere near what it was four or five years ago, but they're going to be fine. Why? They got Andy Reed and Patrick Mahomes.

And as long as Kelsey is on the field, and this, the next 10 days when him and Swift are probably often in the Bahamas is pretty big, he needs some rest, right? You can tell his ankles hurt from the previous week to slip. He had the knee injury early. You have to keep that guy healthy. But as long as you have him with Pacheco, mix and Matt some of these other wide receivers, Who's betting against that team? Who's betting against that team?

Not me. I'm not going to. You know, think about the other teams that are going to compete with them for the AFC. The bills now have a million injuries on defense. They're nowhere near the complete team that they once were. The Dolphins defense just actually sucks. The Jags are not beating the Chiefs. The AFC North currently is kind of in shambles.

So like, to me, the Chiefs, despite not being as sexy of a team because they don't score as many points, and they win games like tonight that just doesn't quite look like what it used to look like are probably more equipped than ever to win the AFC. They're going to cruise to their division. They're going to be the division chance by like Thanksgiving. And you saw tonight just to complete and utter dominance really by the organization. Because when they transitioned a couple years ago away from Tyree Kill,

they needed to get better on defense. And now two years later, they are dramatically better. They have defensive backs everywhere. And one of Andy's great superpowers is even when weird shit happens, like a guy wants more money, a guy's holding out. Chris Jones has come back and it has been more than seamless. Like you watch him, he's like the peak of his powers. He looks like a 6-5 Aaron Donald. He's fucking everywhere.

Their linebackers are sweet. I mean, Brett Vech and Andy Reid are just have, you know, kind of perfect cohesion right now professionally. And that team shows it. And as long as you have Mahomes, they're going to be a force. they are a force. And they're in the middle of what I would call a dynasty. Some would argue it takes three championships. I would bet on them getting the third,

if not this year, within the next couple years. But to me, they're the clear AFC frontrunner. So Broncos trending down, chiefs trending up, and really nothing changed from the night that we didn't already know. One thing that happened pregame,

and we've been talking a little bit about this, you know, so many players get these, jobs in the media. And then they say nothing, right? Like, just because you're famous, if I put you on TV, that's cool, like, initially. And then it's like, do you bring something to the table? You don't need to just shit on everything that goes wrong on the field.

But can you just say what we're all seeing? And a lot of players struggle with that. It's why the players who are good at that really shine, right? It's why Trey Echman became a star. He's willing to say stuff, right? Mark Slareth is a good example. He is not afraid to be critical of a, player or coach.

Dude has a bunch of Super Bowl ranks. And Steve Smith, one of the great shit talkers of his generation, also one of the fantastic great impact wide receivers of his generation, took some shots of Jerry Judy. Like, you suck, bro. You're just not playing very well. You're a bust. That's a fact. Like, that's not an opinion.

Objectively, you can say that. And then I guess Jerry had a good game or was playing well the last couple weeks. Steve Smith went up to say something to him pregame. And Judy wasn't having it, which I got no issue with. That's his prerogative. You don't have to accept someone's apology, right? And then, though, he starts acting like an idiot behind Steve Smith talking pregame. And to me, that kind of represents everything that's going on with the Broncos.

You have a guy who is really kind of writing off his name from Alabama. Well, we're three, four years into this thing. You're an NFL player now. No one cares that you were a highly touted prospect. You're not living up to it. And then if you're going to act like that behind him, kind of a reflection of the whole operation. If I was Sean Payton, I try to get rid of them. The problem is his value is pretty low.

But I appreciate players who are willing to just say what they see. Because listen, I love Pat McAfee. I find him very, very entertaining. He's not really, you know, if you go on that show, his guests rip people. He's not doing that. Love Peyton Manning. Watch the Manning cast. Beside a coach here and there, not that critical.

And all we want is just to say what you're seeing. I don't want you to make things up. You don't need to tell me be Skip Bayless and tell me LeBron sucks. I know that's a lie. But like when you're watching Russell Wilson and I, if you can't say Russell Wilson ain't any good, I don't know what to tell you. Like you shouldn't have a mic. It's why I could have told you from a million miles away the moment NBC hired Drew Breeze. I'm like, this isn't going to work.

If you're paid to talk into a mic, like you got to be willing to say some stuff. That's the job. That's the role. And I appreciate Steve Smith just calling it like he sees it. Another thing that really showed tonight is the ownership level with the Kansas City Chiefs. Because it's right now this week, a big topic has been owners. I read an article today on Michael Bidwell on the athletic, a site where a lot of Big Js do Big J work. And it's where I get really is the only place I read sports news. beside maybe Albert Brewer's MMQB.

But there was an article on Bidwell, which I thought, honestly, the headline was more salacious than the actual meat and substance in the article stuff we kind of already knew. But let's face it, Michael Bidwell is just kind of a loser. He inherited a team. It's not like he did anything to get this squad.

And then there's also kind of this story out there about David Teper meddling. And someone hit me in the DMs today, and they're like, if you pay two or three billion dollars for a team, you would meddle too. And I think there are differences. Like, there's the differences of like, hey, we're going to make a trade.

Well, why are you doing this? How come you're doing this? Right. I just did a remodel. I asked questions, but I paid the guy. I told them what I wanted. Then I let him cook. What's the point in paying someone to do something that you can't do?

And football, like David Tepper's great on Wall Street, knows nothing about quarterbacks. And one story that's kind of out there is it feels like those guys wanted to see Jay Stroud and he made them draft Bryce Young. And I think ownership is something, because it's hard to quantify, right? We can watch a game and go, God, this coach doesn't know when to call timeouts. He's making terrible challenges. His team looks unprepared.

It's easy to judge a coach, right, whether they're good or bad, whether you're winning or losing. It's easy to judge a player. Like, are you making plays? Are you stacking the quarterback? Whatever your position, if you're a kicker, you're making kicks. It's very black and white. With ownership, though, it's very kind of behind the scenes, cloak and dagger. What are they actually doing?

I think it's pretty clear if you look at the NFL, the owners that know what they're doing. Because they stay out of the way. And I think Clark Hunt, now listen, part of it is to hire a guy who's good at his job and then just let him go to work. And Clark Hunt, since hiring Andy Reid, and then ultimately, once John Dorsey went his separate ways, inserted Brett Veach, just stays out of the way. Let's them do things. It's not always fun. Like, they traded Tyree Kill a year ago. You think that was a popular move in Chiefsland?

Of course not. Robert Kraft did this forever when Belichick had Brady. Listen, you want to trade Logan Mankin? Do you want to trade Asante Sammy? You want to trade Richard Seymour? I believe in you. I trust you. It's the reason I'm hiring you, right?

And so when you hear some of these stories about these owners meddling, and there's a difference in asking why you're doing something and telling them, no, I want this player. It's going to fail. And the one thing you heard forever in Washington is the draft board would be set. We're going to take one of these three players with pick 12. and then Dan Snyder would come in and be like, I want this guy. And obviously he's signing the checks and he would take them.

And I think ownership is the most underrated part in the entire NFL. And it's hard. Like we don't have all the information. Only people on the inside know. But I think it's pretty clear. Like the Yorks are a good example. Like, are they great owners? I don't know.

But I do know when they hire someone who knows what they're doing, they just stay out of the way. And Kyle and John do everything. Right. And they just let them do everything football. ball wide. Trey Lance, you want to trade them? Go ahead. Do what you do. And the faster you get to that level, the more you have an opportunity to success. Now, it starts with hiring the right person, but I saw it when I was with the Eagles. Jeffrey Lurie, hires Andy Reed, hires Howie Roseman. He lets those guys cook. It doesn't mean he's always going to agree at the time of the decision,

but what's the point in paying these guys all this money if you're not going to entrust them to do things. And obviously the Cardinals have a lot more issues than just their owner meddling, but the Panthers have major issues. If the guy can't stay out of the draft room and the free agency room, and there's, again, it's not like the guy can't be allowed to talk football, but if he always wants to be the guy pulling the trigger, which I understand, because when you're a hedge fund manager, when you own a company, like, it's not quite the same of the buzz, the way people talk about you when you run a sports team. and specifically the NFL, the biggest sport in America.

So the ownership thing, man, is always going to sink certain organizations and help other ones thrive. A couple other things around the NFL I wanted to hit on. A little like Russell Wilson, it's a little different, obviously. The one thing I'll say about Russell, it's not like he's a bad guy. I think he's a little corny. I think, you know, some of this positive stuff's a little much for me. But he is a positive human being. like Deshawn Watson, I think anyone with a brain's got a giant red flag on that guy.

But just from a football standpoint, when I trade three ones and I give you $230 million, I need you to do a couple things. First and foremost, obviously be a good player, but to be a good player, I need you on the field. And this contract, last year was an utter disaster, suspended, was terrible at the end of the season. Now he's injured. And I'm not blaming him for getting injured, like no player in the history of sports. I mean, maybe there's been a couple that, like, didn't want the smoke. But 99.9% of players who are hurt don't want to be hurt.

But the problem is, once you're hurt and I'm paying you a lot, I am depending on you and you derail my season. So now a couple weeks ago, Deshawn was getting ready for a game, game time decision couldn't play. It gets a buy week and now basically is ruled out on Thursday. It's a major problem for the Browns. I mean, it just is. They're not going to the playoffs having some, you know,

rotation of PJ Walker and DTR. Now, would they beat the 49ers if Deshaun was playing? Probably not. It'd be a tough game, but they got no chance when they're rolling out PJ Walker. So two weeks ago, lose to the Ravens because you rolled out DTR. This week, if you roll out PJ Walker, which I don't really blame you. Like, what are your other options? You can't roll out the rookie when he looked like that a couple weeks ago.

You're going to lose again. So a little like Russell Wilson, huge trade. It just ain't working. Based on the evidence so far, both of them have been a major disaster. One game that's kind of fascinating to me is this Lions Tampa game. Because often when a guy is drafted really high and then goes through really rough times, they usually just become kind of blah, right? They usually become like a Carson Wentz, end up out of the league,

maybe a Marriota become like a backup average player. Jared Goff, and I think I was listening to Rosillo's podcast in the last couple weeks, is really an outlier. You usually don't see a guy go to a number. team, a guy who had success, then go to another team as the number one overall pick after basically being discarded and then play well again. It just doesn't happen. Now, Baker Mayfield situation is a little different, but listen, what of Collins, one of his takes that I thought was the most outrageous, and me and him had it out,

talked about it. I think before the season, he thought Baker Mayfield should retire. And because it would like hurt his brand going into college football or just start his, you know, college football media career. And my take was, look at RG3, is all over TV. You can fail so hard in the NFL, it does not carry. Matt Linerd, Brady Quinn, I mean, they're on Fox noon kickoff. It does not matter what you do in the NFL. But I'll be honest.

I didn't expect Baker to be any good. I expected this season to be a disaster. I didn't think he should retire because you make $4 million. It's more fun playing than even working in the media. Do not stop playing until they force you to stop playing. make them take away your helmet and your pads. But he's been pretty good. He really has.

So the Jared Goff thing, clearly even by the end, he was a better player than that, but I didn't expect him to become like, Jared Goff's better right now than Dak Prescott, right? He's a better player than Kirk Cousins. Like, Jared Goff currently is the best player of that second tier group. Hell, you take Jared Goff over like,

clearly Russell and Deshawn Watts. Like, Jared Goff's a very, very solid player. And Baker can really just have one of the, those years where it's like, God, Baker just helped the bucks go nine and eight and make a wild card spot. And that's something not a lot of people saw coming. And I would say Baker's had kind of a bounce back since Cleveland when you think about it, right? Got run out of town, ended up going to the Rams, who clearly McVeigh and those guys really enjoyed their time around them, had that great win. Was it Thursday night or Monday night football against the Raiders? One of my favorite

games of all time. It was just very enjoyable to watch. And props to Baker for for battle. it out. Before we get into the draft watch, one other game, listen, I'm rooting for him because I think the story is fantastic if the Jets can kind of get back in the mix. But it's an awful matchup this weekend against the Eagles. I was talking to a guy on the jet staff like earlier this year. He said the problem once Rogers went out is their team is really built to have a lead. I've mentioned this on Sundays nights with Colin. Like they're meant to pass rush. Their defense is not the 2000 Ravens. They're not built like Tony Saragusa and Sam Adams in the middle.

They're not built to get leaned on. They're really built to be up 17 to 7 and knowing you have to pass and unleash their pass rushers and let their secondary cover. Right. And then run the ball and control the clock. That's how they're built. Well, the Eagles are the opposite. They obviously can throw the ball.

They have star wide receivers. But to me, the game plan, if you're the Eagles, run the ball down their fucking throat and shove them around. So I know last week was a positive moment for the Jets, cool moment given Nathaniel Hackett the game ball in the locker room. That was fun. I mean, there's no way around it. That was an enjoyable visual to see on all of our social media platforms.

It was cool. Listen, I was glued to Jets Broncos. For some reason, I don't really like watching the, I like talking about the Patriot situation, and Belichick and where's he going to go? someone in my DMs like Middlecock, you got it all wrong on Belichick. Look at these last five years. It's an utter disaster. Who would want him?

There are a lot of teams that would want Belichick. You're only getting him for three or four years. It would bring a lot of positive momentum to your franchise. He's Bill freaking Belichick. It doesn't mean it's going to work. It's no different Phil Jackson at the end with the Knicks. Having a guy like that with your franchise, especially if you're a down-and-out franchise, if you told me Washington hired Belichick, like I'm sorry, or the Bears hired Belichick,

I'm sorry, that's a positive. It just doesn't mean it's a lock to work. Doesn't mean he's going to win a Super Bowl, but teams would want them, I promise you that. But I do think the Eagles are going to be a major, major problem for the Jets. And all this positive momentum, a little bit like week one when they beat the bills, all of a sudden you look up the next week and you're like, God, they're in trouble. Before we dive into the Guinness, bold take of the week,

I do think it's very, very clear there is a top two in college football when it comes. to quarterback. So when we talk about Denver, when we talk about Chicago, Caleb and Drake May are on their own tier. A lot of, I would say every NFL team. I can't say every NFL team, but I would guess close to 90, 95% would have Caleb number one. But I think Drake May is pretty close number two. And I think Drake May is viewed as a big time prospect. I think Drake May is viewed if you just talk to an average, you know, if I just got 10 college scouting directors on the phone, I would imagine And eight of them would say, hell, maybe 10 of them would say, Drake May would have been the number one pick in last year's draft when Bryce, C.J,

and then Anthony Richardson went one, two, and four. So Drake May is viewed as a high-end NFL prospect. And I think the question is who's going to be the third guy? And come Saturday at 1230 in Seattle, Washington, I think there's a lot in the line for Bo Nicks and Michael Pennix. Both these two teams are 5-0. whoever wins this game is going to be viewed as, I mean, a borderline lock playoff team, even though they might end up playing each other again.

They still have other tough games. But Bo Nix is a, both of them are fantastic stories. Transfer from Auburn, transferred from Indiana. Obviously, Bo Nix really underachieved was part of a disaster program. Pennix got injured. But these guys right now, I just looked at their stats today. I knew they were good. Bo Nix has 15 touchdowns and one pick.

Michael Pennix has 16 touchdowns and two picks. I mean, they've combined for 31 touchdowns and three interceptions. These guys have dominated. And I was told last year by a scout that he thought that Bo Nix would have been a fringe first rounder had he'd come out. Obviously with NIL, Oregon paid him a lot to come back. Same thing with Michael Pennix. Not that he would have been viewed coming out after the one season as high of a prospect as Bo, because he has some questions with his knee in terms of he's torn his ACL, I think, multiple times.

but when you put two years together, and let's say Pennix wins this game, Washington goes on to a playoff, become a playoff team wins the Pac-12. I mean, I think both these guys could go in the top 10, right? Especially if Pennix's knee checks out, which, listen, it's weird because you can watch a player play all year long on Saturdays, and then them fail a physical, and you're like, well, I watch this guy kick everyone's ass. Listen, I don't pretend to be some medical professional, but this game's going to be awesome. And if you like college football, even if you live in the Northeast, I would watch this thing. You have elite offensive players everywhere.

Washington is three wide receivers, multiple wide receivers. I think some people think they have one of the best wide receivers in the country behind Marvin Harrison, Jr. Both of them have NFL players on defense. Dan Lannning, who's been awesome for Oregon. He really has. Kirby's right-hand man, they hired him. I thought it was kind of a weird, bold choice, but it's worked. and Kaelin Dubour, a Fresno State guy, Jeff Tedford guy, is a fucking stud.

And you win games like this. If things ever got weird, I can see it coming from a mile away. A guy like this starts winning big time games. If Washington goes to the playoff next year, they make some noise in the Big Ten. Things go weird with Ohio State. Like, keep an eye on Kaylon DuBore because that guy's got big time, Big Ten job offer written all over. Now, Washington's in the Big Ten too.

They could pay them 80, 90, million dollars, but both these two guys feel like they're really rolling right now. So as a Pack 12, Homer, as someone is sad to see it go, but as a lover of football, I'm going to take it all in. I'm going to enjoy this week because I can't wait to watch Bo Nix and Michael Panix play on Saturday. Bold take of the week. This is actually pretty hard.

I love my friends of Guinness. Love drinking a nice Guinness stout. They taste fantastic. I had one the other day, actually. This is difficult, and I've been close a couple times on some underdog picks. Last week, I was not close. I took Georgia against Kentucky after the game, Mark Stoops, Bob's brothers, basically begging for more money because Georgia's payroll is way bigger than his.

Their players are way bigger than his as well, and they kicked the crap out of Kentucky. So picking a random game to have a big upset is difficult. Now, I'm not going to stop doing that forever, but this week I'm not going to do it because I was like, you know, do I really think the Panthers are going to beat the dolphins? I don't. Do I really think the Giants and Tyrod Taylor are going to upset the bills in Buffalo? Can't see it. The Browns with PJ Walker going to beat the 49ers? No chance.

It's not even a crazy college game to pick. So I went this. I'm going a little big picture football. And here's my big picture. I think someone, I don't know who. It could be a coordinator. It could be a general manager. Doubtful it's a head coach, but you never know.

Once you get to the middle of October and teams start losing, people get angry. There's a lot of money in the line. Remember right around this time last year, Matt Ruhle got fired. Someone's getting fired. And more than likely, it'll be an offensive or defensive coordinator with one of these crappy teams. A curveball could be if you told me like Monday morning or Saturday. The Broncos fired. George Payton could see that as well.

But my bold take of the week, someone in the National Football League, a coordinator, probably not a head coach, but maybe an executive, gets fired over the next three or four days. So, bold take of the week brought to you by Guinness, gather your friends, raise your glasses, and toast to a win. Guinness, Strout, Stout, imported by Diageo Beer Company, USA, New York, New York, please drink responsibly. The NFL season is going strong, and Draft King's Sportsbook is hooking up new customers with an offer that's even strong. stronger. Bet five bucks on any game this week to score $200 instantly in bonus bets. And Draft King says to stop in there. All customers can take advantage of a sweetener offer every game day this October. Get in on the game day greatness. Download the Draft King Sportsbook app now

and use the code John, J-O-H-N. New customers can score $200 instantly in bonus bets when you bet five on the NFL. That's code John only on Draft King Sportsbook, an official sports betting partner of the NFL. The crown is yours. Gambling problem? Call 1-800 gambler or visit www.1-800-Gambler.net. In New York, call 8778-8-Hope-N-Y or text Hope NY-469-369. In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling call 888-7-8-9-77 or visit ccpgpg. Ork, please play responsibly. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino and Resort Kansas, licensed partner, gold nugget Charles, Louisiana, 21 plus.

Age varies by jurisdiction. Void in ONT. Bonus bets expire 168 hours after issuance. See Sportsbook.DraftKings. Slash football terms for eligibility and deposit restrictions, terms, and responsible gaming resources. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying.

Yep, that's me, Clivert Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversation. with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music.

The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of Ton Tontons and Wampas on the Ice Planet Hot,

or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to blow your mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, here with my main man Stucky, action network, big bets on campus. You can find him tweeting up a storm come Saturday and Sunday when the pigskin's getting tossed around. And he's furious. Before we dive in to two of the best. better college games of the season. I rode you last week because, I mean, the numbers speak for themselves.

Tomlin, Ravens. That was a fucking roller coaster. I mean, at one point in time, it's 10.3. And it's like, they're going to lose this game 20 to 3. And they're not even going to come remotely close to covering. And then they end up winnings outright. But that is, Stucky, that is why we gamble. That was a roller coaster of emotions.

You could have $500 on a game, and the highs of that wouldn't sniff making 5 Gs in the normal world. There's nothing like gambling, bro. Yeah, that was classic Raven Steelers game. Yeah, the Steelers look lost. Their offense is still so bad. They have one play, one play,

and it's throw it to George Pickens up the sideline. Like, try using that guy in the middle of the field. too. He's amazing. They got a touchdown out of it and they got a couple other big plays. But yeah, there was a block punt. Then you're like, oh, we didn't recover it,

but we got a safety. We're inside the number. We're getting the ball back. Just need a first down or pun it and then we're good. They fumble the punt. I mean, they fumble the kickoff after the safety pops right into a Raven's hand and you say, we're done.

It's over. And then Lamar throws, It was a horrific pick in the end zone on an underthrown fade route. And all of a sudden, you're like, whoa, we're back. Then you're like, that's still the Steelers' offense. And then they hit a bomb down the sidelines. Yeah, that was, that felt more like a, you know, a crazy college game in an NFL game with all of the blunders, the drops. It was like a midweek Mac game. But, yeah, that was amazing.

But I, yeah, the story for me at the weekend. was whiffing on Dallas and New England learned a lot about both. I mean, we said it last week. New England can't rally there in that spot after losing 38 to 3. Well, guess what? Now it's 72 to 3 after the past two weeks. Special teams are a mess. Their wide receivers don't run any routes.

There's no pass protection. Mack Jones looks broken. He's thrown off his back foot. He looks like he's regressed. He's never been great. But he's looked like he's regressed somehow. And that team is an absolute mess. They have, and it's,

Bill's definitely lost his fastball. I mean, and look, he said this week, we've got to start over. You're starting over in week six. And he's got all these guys, like, he's got all these guys on his staff. Like, everyone blamed Patricia last year. Patricia wasn't a problem. But he's got all these guys on his staff, like Troy Brown is the wide receiver coach, you know, Gerard Mayo.

Like, it feels more just like, like he's just been hiring his like old players on his staff and that was such an embarrassing loss. His two worst losses of his career in back-to-back weeks speaks volumes and then learned a lot about Dallas. It wasn't shocked that San Fran won. It was in the way that they won. And Dallas just had such a bad game plan. And I think of correct the San Francisco offensive line, but how they were trying to bring

pressure. Like, if you don't get pressure on Purdy, he's going to destroy it, which is exactly what happened. And the San Francisco line held up well. But I, you know, I went into the week thinking, all right, Dallas, well, I'll give them an excuse on that Arizona game. They had injuries. And NFL team's going to have one or two games where you just, it's just an off week. But then you see, you know, Arizona's been getting crushed ever since. They crushed New England. And then I'm watching early in the day, I'm watching the Saints be doing of 30 for nothing. So I'm like, all right, maybe that didn't mean as much.

And so coming, but coming into the weekend, I was like, Dallas is one of the, one of the main contenders in the NFC. I don't say it. I don't, you know,

obviously they're going to get into the playoffs, most likely. And, you know, it's football. You're going to have a chance. But I just don't think that they have the same ceiling as the Eagles, especially the 49ers.

So I now have power rated as the best team in football surpassing the bills and chiefs. The, it's, a lot of its play calling, the play calling is really, bad and then DAC just I'm getting similar vibes to

Russell Wilson. So once Russell Wilson got older and couldn't move around right he wasn't the same quarterback he would just improvise by time make plays downfield. Now Dak's not you know oh he's too old but since that injury that he had that horrific injury

when he was running he doesn't run anymore he doesn't move anymore and he's just not the same guy as a pure pocket passer and that limits his upside. So, yeah, that was a really dominant win by San Francisco. Dallas hyped that game up. Local media all week. This is all, we, this is a team we lost to past two post seasons and to get humiliated. That speaks volumes to where I think this Dallas team can go this year. I know it's only one game, but it's very telling. And yeah,

San Fran does it again. It's a shame that we're probably going to get. I wanted to see the San Brad team go up against the Cleveland defense, which I think is the best than Lee. It's a shame we're going to get not Deshaun. We're probably going to get PJ Walker. But very, very impressed by San Francisco and underwhelmed by both Dallas and New England bad calls there. Yeah, to me, it's why Cousins a better player in Dak Prescott right now, because he's never been predicated on moving. Like he's, he's a pocket quarterback. Yeah, he's got flaws and he's got limitations and he's never going to be viewed as a top.

six, seven guy, but, you know, in that eight to 12 range, he's just a better player because Dak Prescott is not as good in the pocket. And like you said, he cannot move. The other thing is I understand the cousins, and I talked about this on yesterday's podcast, not paying him if you're Minnesota, right? You didn't bring him in. He's older. To extend him costs a lot, limit your ability, just kind of reset. I understand that. I've always thought like, you know what is Dallas going to do, but I kind of understand it because he's making 40 a year. So he's not, it's not like you can pay DAC 27. You're like, well, you're not quite as good.

He's going to want 44 to 45 a year. So it's like, fuck that. I can't. Not that. You know, and ultimately Dallas, I picked them to compete with the Niners when the season started in the Eagles, but it's pretty clear it's him. You know, I mean, the rest of their team has issues. And Mike McCarthy is not, you know, Vince Lombardi here.

but if that's your quarterback play, like Dante Wittner, who does local TV in San Francisco, said it after the game, like, he sucks. Like that at the highest level. Like that gets you beat every time against, you know, a Super Bowl contender. And that's ultimately the way Dallas was talked about. But then you look back,

what was their downfall the last two years of the 49ers? Him picks, interceptions. And you cannot, like, listen, we can nitpick, Purdy, and there's still a lot to be determined. But if your quarterback is not Mahomes or Allen, You can't overcome playing elite teams and throwing a pick in a playoff game. And that's essentially what Sunday night was, right? It was a playoff level game.

And he threw three. Now, the third one, whatever. But like, what the fuck were some of those passes? I mean, it was, it was crazy. Yeah. And the other thing is that speaking of his mobility, because he used to be able to extend drives with his legs. And there was against Arizona, you know, in like the read option game,

He had, they were near the goal line and they were running a read option and he put the ball in Pollard's stomach and had a chance to, if he pulls it, it's a third app, he's clear path running in. His one, you know, safety that's going to come up and hit him. He just kept it and his shoulder gets tackled. So he just doesn't want to risk injury. He's just hesitant after that horrific injury. And yeah, he's just not going to be able to get it. done from the pocket, especially with that play calling. It's just really poor.

And it was just a huge coaching mismatch at the end of the day on both ends. So, yeah, for the NFC, it's here, I ask you an interesting question before we get started. You pull up the 49er schedule. Not only do I have them power rated as the best team in the NFL right now, they're also starting to get schedule breaks. So, you know, you missed who did the, uh, Who did they miss it? I mean,

you know, the quarterback's for it this week. I mean, so I'm almost positive to be, PJ Walker, who wasn't even on the roster yesterday. He's not beating the 49ers. Yeah.

I mean, the Browns didn't win that game, three nothing. And they got to hope that there's like 60 mile an hour wins, not 30. But then you're going to play the Vikings without Jefferson the next week. So you look at their,

their schedule. And if you had a guess, where does the, Are we starting to talk about Niners undefeated? They do have a curveball in there of obviously the Eagle game is going to be, you know, what would

you guess, assuming both teams relatively healthy? Eagles are favored in that game by maybe two? Yeah, one, one and a half. So that's a loseable game. That's a big time game. And the other game that is tricky is they play Seattle short week Thanksgiving night.

You know, just late season road game short week. That to me is just a weird spot. You could go 16 and 1 if you have an off week. Maybe you have some injuries that week, right? Maybe a guy that could play Sunday can't quite play Thursday. That's just that, you know, that place would be rocking if Seattle's good. I would say that in the Eagle game.

Yeah. And I would say this. The other thing is, now granted, it was Jimmy Garoppolo. The Niners have historically under Kyle lost some random games, right? Like an Atlanta Falcon game, obviously a couple of years. ago with Trey Lance the opener, this bearer, you just, but it's definitely on the table. I would say they get to 10 and 0.

It's 100% real. Yeah, App Browns is still a long way to go. At Browns and at Vikings, I would have thought probably maybe trip up one of them, but now no Jefferson and no quarterback. That gets a lot easier. The Eagles, I think they meet the Eagles. They're going to have revenge. They're going to be waiting for that game.

They have extra rest for that game, too, which makes the, that trip to Seattle is definitely eye circled because that's a lot of, short week. You have the Eagles game on Dack. Are you looking ahead a little bit? But, you know, even at the Jags, that comes after a buy. Where's the Ravens game at home? Yeah, the Ravens on Christmas,

they're always, you know, they're one of the feistyest underdogs in the NFL. Remember the year the 49ers made the Super Bowl? Now, that Ravens team was obviously healthier and better. I think Lamar won the MVP that year, but in the rain, he kind of sliced and diced him. You remember that game?

Yeah. It was... After a It was a couple days after Thanksgiving. Yeah, horrible weather game. And then, yeah, the two that I'd circled. Yeah, at Seattle, obviously, is going to be tricky. I think they beat the Eagles. I think they get the next two. Bengals at home and the Ravens at home.

I know both those games are at home, but if Burroughs looking healthier and, you know, he's one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, if that offense is humming, they can beat anybody on any field. But, yeah, maybe we're, that might be a tough. topic of discussion. Yeah, I mean, it was kind of like last year, once they got to like eight, nine and oh, everyone was like, look at the Eagles schedule. And they cruised to 14 and 3. It feels like the Niners worst case scenario are kind of doing that.

And honestly, they feel closer to like a 15 and 2 team than they do 13, 14 win teams. And yeah, that record, would you rather lose a game than have the undefeated? Because you go undefeated, anything less than a. Super Bowl is a complete failure. It just is. It's like the year the Warriors won 73 games. Anything less than the championship, you'll always be known as the team that didn't get it done. The Patriots, 16 and 0, it's just you have to win the championship or else it's a failure. Yeah. If I'm a fan or on the team, like there's, you want to go undefeated, just you'd be in the history books. But if I'm a coach or just like look objectively for the chances of a team

winning the Super Bowl. You know, I bet if you ask, like, Kyle Shanahan, like, candidly, and you ask most good coaches, they probably want your team to lose once. You know, it's not college where a loss could doom you. Because you want at least one game during the season where you can say, all right, this is what we need to clean up to get through to your team, because if you just keep winning, you guys are like, who cares? Why don't I have to really listen to you?

But, like, having a game where it's like, all right, let's refocus. you know, we got to clean these things up and it kind of helps you clean those little things up that might get overlooked if you just keep beating teams throughout the season. And, you know, you put a bigger target on your back. You add so much added pressure in the playoffs. So objectively, like just for a team's chances,

I think they'd be better off losing at least one game. Honestly, if you could choose, to me, you want to beat all the teams, obviously all the, you know, the Eagles, but then the other teams in the other conference that you never know, right? Like the Ravens, the Bengals, like you'd want to win the. You'd honestly rather drop like an Arizona or like in a couple weeks at Minnesota. It's just kind of an irrelevant game that you can just always look back on why we always got to stay focused. I think you'd circle, like you wouldn't want to lose to Seattle because shit, you might play Seattle in the first round.

Yeah. So you would want to lose to a team who's destined to draft in the top 10, I think. Agreed. well okay let's uh before we dive into some of the picks two college games that you know i think that niners cowboy game is kind of collegiate where it's like this is going to be a big time game then all of a sudden you're sitting on the couch you're like this is not a close game and when you look at organ in washington feels a lot like niners cowboy like fuck this thing's going to be a war zone the organ's three point favorite it's very like an NFL line you know

historic rivals, geographical rivals, conference rivals, going together now to the Big Ten. Whoever wins this game is going to be on the fast track. I mean, you could argue whoever, if Oregon were to win this game, like, you could argue they're the best team in the country. If Washington were to win this game, they're definitely a title contender. I don't know if you'd quite put them one based on their schedule, but it would be very, very impressive. And then USC Notre Dame, I had a couple buddies as the hype started on Hartman.

that said based on last year, they had them great NFL guys, had him as a third day guy. And they're like, I'm not going to buy the hype. They're playing nobody. Let's wait until he's play some better teams. And it's been a little bit of a struggle for him.

Not that he's a bad player. He made some really nice passes last week. But I definitely, the hype train is slowed down a little bit. And, you know, Marcus Freeman, I would say the better teams they played, kind of getting exposed here a little bit.

But that line's a little weird to me. And I know USC's defense is off, but USC's an underdog. Now, part of it may just be the defense. Either one of these games stand out to you something that's off with the line or a team you like of these four teams. Now, Notre Dame's out of it now, right?

They're not a playoff team, but these other three teams obviously don't just have playoff hopes. I mean, it's weird calling USC a national title contender, but if you ask Lincoln Riley, he probably thinks they are. Yeah, I mean, you have K.O. Williams in that offense, if they get, I think that they're, at least in the group that could win it, potentially.

I don't think that they're ultimately going to get there. But the, and I actually think, I don't know if the, you know, because the college football playoff, there's the rankings, there's human bias. But I feel like if USC or Oregon or Washington loses this weekend, they shouldn't necessarily be eliminated from the cultural club, right? It's like an SEC team that loses in the past. when the SEC is so strong. You know, like,

I don't think necessarily a one loss and a good loss, one lost, Pac-12 champion. So say like Oregon loses and then beats Washington again in the Pac-12 championship. I don't think that they should be eliminated. The Pac-12 is arguably the best conference in football this year. But, yeah, I actually-

But my question on that, because Oklahoma and Texas is shaping up for that, what game do you put more valid? value on. Are they both independently the same or does the second game ultimately get more value, right? Yeah, I mean, I think that you tend to give the second game more value on a neutral field, depends on if you know, if the road team on the first, but the committee always values a conference champion too. And that it's, you know, it's the most recent win. So there's recency bias too. So, you know, you're not going to, if the team split, you're most likely

going to take the team that won the conference championship and won the most recent game on a neutral field, all else being equal. But when it comes to these two games, yeah, look, Notre Dame, it's, they're a mess. You watch them in the past two weeks, and it speaks to Ohio State's kind of a mess, too, because Notre Dame should have beat them. But they go to Duke, they should have lost the Duke. They get blown out by Louisville. Here's the thing, like, their schedule has been horrible. They haven't had a buy yet. They started off in Ireland. They're going to play their fourth straight, big game, four straight prime time game,

four straight game against a ranked opponent. I think it's like, you know, a fourth straight prime time game in four weeks, the first time I think of program history. You saw that last week, there was just fatigue. Like, it's hard to get up. You saw it with Colorado a couple times already this year. It's hard to get up every week like this. So that they were fatigued, but the offense,

Gerard Parker, I think, is a horrible offense coordinator. And teams have just started loading the box. That's what Duke. That's what Elko did at Duke. and then that's what Louisville did last week. They just put nine in the box. They said, try to throw it. We'll press your receivers who are bad and hurt. And Notre Dame has to be able to adjust.

And then last week, they made this asinine decision to rotate offensive linemen the entire game. I don't know who came up with that. But they said they were rotating their guards and centers. And they got, they were just, they played eight offensive linemen total. And they were rotating them in and out. And it was, that led to disastrous results and five turnovers. So their offense is a mess right now. The play callings bad.

The wide receivers aren't great. And the teams are loading the box, which was, you know, the strength of their team. And Hartman, he only could do so much. So the question is, though, number one, can Notre Dame get up again this week? Like, it's another, it's, they're in an exhaustive stretch. It is at home. The place can be rocking. It'll be a good atmosphere.

You might get some weather, which would help Notre Dame. And Notre Dame secondary has been very good. USC's run d' run. he's been really bad. I think that some of it, their defense is really bad, but some of it's like they just, they kind of just fuck around with some of these bad teams and they just can't get stops.

Like last year that he was really bad, they loaded the box and stop Notre Dame's rushing attack. So I assume they're going to do that here, load the box and then man up on the outside. So yeah, I kind of like USC as a dog, even though I hate their defense. There's so much wrong with this Notre Dame offense right now. and then you kind of just trust Caleb Williams

to get over the finish line. This Notre Dame offense isn't an offense right now that is going to fully exploit the USC defense. Like some of the teams in the Pac-12, I think, will later on this season. And then in Washington, Oregon should be a really good game. I mean, last year it was... One quick thing, Stucky, on Notre Dame.

I mean, I know he got some positive momentum last year after he lost. I mean, he could have easily lost a cow. He lost a Marshall. and he lost one other awful game. I forget off top of my head, but he was, you know, and he kind of got the train back on the tracks. You start losing three, four games. I mean, I'm not saying he's going to get fired this year,

but he would immediately be like, this could be a three and done type deal for Marcus Freeman. You know, their expectations, it gets a little easier when they go to 12 teams, but you just can't go from Brian Kelly, who was winning 11, 12 games every year to start winning 8 and 9. Like, that's just not going to be tolerated. It just won't.

So he's, he needs a win like this to just kind of fucking settle the seas. Yeah, I agree. I mean, the margins are thin when you're a coach. Like, I mean, but they've, they've not been, the coaching's been bad the past couple weeks. They've been solved. The offensive coordinator higher I didn't like. The narrative would be different if they beat Ohio State and they should have.

But yeah, you're right. And they still go, they go to Clemson. The rest of the schedule is pretty easy after this, except for that, at Clemson game. But yeah, if they go 8 and 4, I think it's then hot seat next year. Yeah, I agree. If they run the table, he's fine.

Yeah. And, you know, that would include wins against USC and that's Clemson, yeah, he'd be fine. And then you should have beat Ohio State. But yeah, 8 and 4, like 9 and 3, I think it's okay. Let's let's see what we're doing next year. Eight and four, it's hot seat time. So, yeah, it's a big game for Freeman for sure.

And then in regards to the Washington game, last year was 37. 34. Nick's Washington won in Eugene. Nick's got hurt and his backup came in and wasn't good towards the end and then tried to come back. It was an awesome game back and forth. I kind of like the under. It's scary as hell. These are two of the best offenses in college football.

But there could be some weather here in Seattle. And Washington doesn't play fast. Pennick's been one of the best quarterbacks in the country. He's got three great receivers. We'll see it on the health of Adunzei and McMillan, who, Adunza got banged up last week. Macmillan's been out. I think that they're both probably going to play.

But both of these defenses are a lot better than last year. And this is like a really hyped game. I think both teams are going to be kind of a little bit more conservative early on. The Oregon defense is just much better than it was last year. Dan Lannning finally has some pieces to do what he wants to do, play more multiple. They're actually getting a pass rush this year. So then on the other side, I think Oregon can run on Washington. Washington's defense has a couple guys that could be getting done.

back to leave is really important of the D line but i think Oregon can methodically run the ball and you know that's going to turn up clock especially with the new clock rules so 68 that's a super high total in a big game you get over that you need like everything to go right i mean you can't have like and and Washington's offense going up against a really good d they can yeah their office isn't great in the red zone because they can't really run the ball so a couple field goals here in there, a road bow next, you know, interception, the red zone, your, your, your, your toes. So kind of like the under there. I think Oregon's going to win.

I think the line is probably close to right, but my intuition tells me that Oregon's going to win. I think that their defense, two weeks to repair with landing, has, and they have the more overall talented roster, even if Washington has panics, the Heisman frontrunner and three NFL receivers. Overall roster talent, Oregon has more of it. And I think their defense is better equipped to at least. slow down Washington. Like Washington's going to get its points, but stops in the red zone,

throw off the timing of that offense with pet pressure, press on the outside. Then Washington does slowing down Oregon's attack. Like all the short yardage, Oregon's excellent there. And Washington's been really bad. So like all the third and one, third and twos, I think Oregon's going to convert, keep their drives going. And Washington's going to struggle in the red zone more and then on those short yardage situations where I think you'll get maybe a couple of completions or sack. So I think it's a really good game. I think Oregon's going to win. I think lines about right.

My bet, I'm probably going to bet the under a little bit there. I'm waiting to see if it gets to 68. You might be a pro when it comes to what you do, but we can't all be pros at everything. Take home repairs, remodeling, and renovations. That's not something you want to trust to anyone but a skilled professional. Angie's list is now Angie. Connect with a local pro, tackle jobs big and small inside and out.

Decks, leaky faucets, maybe redo it. a kitchen. I know I can relate. It's not easy and you want people you can trust. The Angie app offers robust tools so you can research and connect with local pros who come highly rated and recommended by people right in your neighborhood, all with a few taps of a button. Download the free Angie mobile app today or visit Angie.com. That's A-N-G-I-com. Hey, let's dive into the National Football League. I've been hammering the last couple weeks, just taking a good team against a shitty team. And I bet against Carolina two weeks in a row.

A little more difficult for me to do that this week. I know you'll dive into it. I'm going here with, it's basically just essentially a money line bet. The Saints minus one at Houston. I think the Saints are pretty good, especially defensively, tough spot for a rookie quarterback. I know, you know, everyone's kind of given Houston and C.J. Stroud, kind of anointing them, even though they just lost.

I just like the Saints in this spot. So it's not quite my philosophy of the last couple weeks, given a big favorite. But I actually think when the Dust settles, I think the Saints still end up winning that division. And Houston's probably more likely to win six games than they are nine. So I just, you know, getting them minus one. I know what's on the road. Easy trip for them. I like the Saints this week.

Yeah, don't mind. I think that the Texans, I had some Falcons minus one and a half last week, which is, a super swim. A roller coaster. Yeah. I think the Texans have gotten a little bit overvalued in the market due to Stroud's start. No doubt.

He's been amazing and looks like the most NFL ready and potential full-time starter for many years to come of all of the rookies. But, you know, this is a Texan team coming into the year. Ask yourself what you thought of them before the season

started. So, yeah, this Saints defense is playing extremely, well and we'll present some problems and probably cause some confusion for Stroud. So, yeah, don't mind that one at all. Hey, let's dive into some of your picks. Carolina at Miami. Most people probably think, oh, he's going to hammer the dolphins here to kick the shit out of them. No, you're going Panthers.

Plus 13. Holler at me. Yeah, this is ugly, but this is the time of the year where you just have to bet some of the teams that have looked so bad in the NFL and Panthers haven't won a game and just to show you

and look, when I break this one down, the, and because of that, I'll finish my thought. Because the Panthers haven't won a game, nobody wants to bet the Panthers. I think as of now, like 95% of the vets are on the Dolphins. It's on track to be the biggest public side over the past

20 years. And public sides win it all time. Public sides are actually waiting at like 63%. But it just, it illustrates to you that no one wants to bet these teams. So because of that, you get a couple extra points. And, you know, these teams, you're buying them at their most possible body, which is what I think is the case with the Panthers here on the road. And just to illustrate that point, winless road dogs catching more than 10 points in week six or later over the past. 20 years. So these are teams that haven't won a game. They're catching

over 10. No one wants to bet them. 26 and 8 against the spread. 76 and a half percent. So it just illustrates that all that is is contextualizing, okay, you want to buy low on these teams. This is a Dolphins defense that's still bad.

If you look at success rate, the dolphins of Panthers are actually tied for the second worst success rate allowed in the NFL. They're tied exactly. The Panthers should be able to do some things offensively. You know, their past defense has been better than the run day, and they should get Dante Jackson back at corner.

Last week they were playing three guys off the street in the secondary. Dante Jackson will return this week, which will help a little bit. And you don't have a chain running the ball, and he's just a rocket ship for the Dolphins. The Dolphins will still get their points, but I think the Panthers can. And here's the other thing. The Dolphins have the Eagles next week, and they're comfortable. a point with these teams who have just been rolling where you don't want to show everything, every game. And so the dolphins will be more than happy to get a big, get a big lead.

All the stuff that McDaniel wants to show, there's no need to waste it, also risk injury against the Panthers at home. There also could be some wind here, which helps the Panthers. But see, in some of these spots, you've seen it with the Chiefs in the past. You're just not, you're not rolling out the whole playbook and showing all of your advanced motion. giving teams more film on what you want to do. So you could get a vanilla effort, especially after Miami goes up. Backdoor could be wide open.

This is just a, I'm going to bet it at 13 half. It never gets to 14. I'm waiting to see if it gets to 14. But this is a huge number in the NFL, especially for a team that has a bad defense in a potential sleepy spot with weather.

There's going to be heavy winds here. So I think this is the bottom of the market on the Panthers. And, you know, Teams that average, and another thing that just shows you, if you're scared to bet this, teams that average 35 points per game or more, as the Dolphins did, they average 36 points per game, which leaves the NFL, against teams that average below 20. Teams are scoring over two touchdowns more than the other team.

In week six or later, over the past 20 years, they are 20, 39, and four against the spread. I mean, that's as bad as it get. are teams that are, who wants to back the team that's averaging under 20 against a team that's averaging over 35. Not a soul. So that, and I just still, you know, trends you can use each way. That just, I'm just using them to illustrate the buy low, sell high aspect. So I think this is the bottom of the market on the Panthers.

And I'm going to buy them, hold my nose, and hope for the best. Well, you just got to be a human being and put yourself as a player on the dolphins. Last week, even though they're playing a shitty Giants team, they're coming off getting embarrassed by the bills. So they're going to come out swing and they did. They control that game. Honestly, the eye test on that game felt like 50 to zero. Somehow the final score was 31 to 6. I mean, I think seven of the points came on a pick six from Tua. But like you said, I didn't even realize it until you said it and I bring up their schedule. It's not even just at the Eagles. That's Sunday night football. That's going to be such a hyped game. These guys are human beings. I mean, they're watching the film. Coaches are screaming at them, take them seriously.

No chance you got the best practices this week. This has. as honestly, like you look up, classic NFL, Panthers are up like 10-0-0 and they're just sleepwalking 10 a.m. West Coast kickoff. Obviously, the Dolphins, you know, you'd be stunned if they lose the game, but I could see them definitely sleepwalking. Speaking of the other game you like, that falls under a lot of the same categories that you just brought up, the Giants at the Bills.

Now, unlike the Dolphins, this team's coming off of not just a loss. I would say a pretty devastating loss when you factor in the injuries. now this game's at Buffalo the place is going to be rocking but defensively this team has been I mean taking some fucking massive massive hits the last couple weeks yeah and by the way

if you go back this is another spot where I think this is just the bottom mark of the Giants who haven't covered yet on this season they have yet yet to cover and for look when I look at the bills

number one it's not a great spot they were just in London they're coming back to Buffalo. There's just been a lot of travel over the past two weeks. And they've lost three all-pro caliber defensive players in the past two weeks. You lose Milana, the heart and soul that dude does so much at linebacker. You lose your shutdown corner in Trey White. You lose your detackle, DeKan Jones, who was leading the NFL among all interior defensive linemen and pass block win rate. You have other injuries also to other players who are questionable. Rousseau and Von Miller still doesn't look like himself.

I think he came back just to play in London. This defense has lost a lot of guys. And if you look, last week, the Giants were catching 13, 12 and a half at Miami. Daniel Jones gets hurt. They were playing without anybody and they might be playing without anybody this week. They still had a chance to cover that game, even though they got destroyed. That's the NFL. Like these big numbers, even if you're getting blown out, teams are completely take their foot off the gas.

There's just no reason to show much. You just want to preserve your, like, they don't. run it up like in college. So, but I look at this game. And now Buffalo's length 14 and a half, um, at home against the Giants in a, in a bad spot coming back from London after losing three all pro

defense players with other defensive injuries. You're probably going to get Tyrod Taylor here. I don't think it's that much of a drop off. The other factor that I like here, other than like it's just so hard to cover. Could argue it's an upgrade. Yeah, could argue it's an upgrade. He can give you a little bit more.

it's slightly more. Daniel Jones is very mobile. But Daniel Jones also has lost the plot because he's been under so much pressure that he's just he's lost right back there. He's not Daniel Jones that we saw last year where everything was simplified for him. I also think Barclay might play. We'll see how effective he can be. But the offense used to rely on him early last year and then that set everything else up. You can run on the bill. So I think that if Barclay plays, you're going to go heavy 12 personnel, bringing two tight ends and then just try to grind this game. down and push. And Daible knows the Buffalo offense and the Buffalo defense extremely well.

So I think that I'll have a really good game plan here for how to simplify things, how to attack. The Giants have been dreadful. Who wants to bet the Giants? Nobody, I mean, I guess except me. 14 and a half, I think, is just too many points against Buffalo team coming back from London with defensive injuries. The Daibel familiarity, I think, works in your favor. And teams that have yet to cover game in game six or beyond. Again, teams no one wants to bet. Past 30 seasons, 68% against the spread, including five and one is a double-digit underdog. Panthers also haven't covered a game either, so they fall into that. Five and one double-digit underdogs, three of the six, one outright. You go back in history, you'll see some, it's just still the NFL. These are still professional football

players. You'll see some, you go back like 2011. There was a Saints game. They were like 17-point favorites and lost. Like, this is still the NFL. It wouldn't even completely shock me at like the Giants or Panthers somehow won this week. We've seen it in the past. But ultimately, I'm not going to sit here and say rosy things about the Giants or Panthers.

I just think that this is the bottom of the market and there's reasons to believe, you know, Buffalo defensive injuries to travel. Miami, their schedule ahead. Their defense isn't great of why I don't have a problem just trying to stay within two touchdowns with an NFL team that I think is at the bottom of the market. For a limited time, you can save 40% on NFL Plus premium annual subscription when you sign up through Plus Play from Verizon.

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Just go to Verizon.com slash NFL to get NFL Plus premium today. It's 40% off an annual subscription. That's just 5999 for the full season. Get it before it's gone. One thing will be interesting now with Buffalo suffering those two dead. devastating season-long injuries. Dayquan Jones, what's his injury? He's on IR.

But the other guys are gone. Obviously, Milano's blague was in aircast and Trey White, ripped his Achilles or ACL or whatever. I wonder if Buffalo kind of morphs into Miami. You know, defensively, their shell of themselves, they're not able to really stop anyone because the reason we love Buffalo going to the Miami game was how awesome their defense was. You know, relative, that's what you had to.

to stop Miami. Now that defense becomes middle of the back to below. All of a sudden, they're just an offensive led team. And Josh, like last week, if he's a little off, they're in trouble. Same thing with two. Two is a little off. You got a chance to beat him. So those, those two teams might start mirroring each other, which is something to keep an eye on. And last but not least, a guy who it was just fun to see him. And I get these playing the Cardinals, but just look like himself again, just throwing bombs, hitting Jamar Chase. Jamar Chase after said, I'm always fucking open, getting the rock, kicking ass, taking names. the Bengals are fun when their offense is humming and their offense gained life and I think it all started with.

He just didn't look right. You know, and we can argue should he be out there? Should he not? It's the NFL guys play. And it's just a reality. Joe Burrell, if he's able to play, unless the doctor is going to refuse to let him out there, he's going to play. And he did not even remotely look close to the guy that we've become accustomed to. Last week, it feels like clearly that calf and his lower body looks better.

He was definitely, it just, it looks fantastic to see the ball come out of his hand and hit guys in stride. So are the Bengals back one going to Seattle? Seattle's got life coming off a buy. You know, this is a nice little test for Cincinnati. Like if they are back, they win this game. Yeah. I think, you know, with Barrow, there's two things that play with Barrow. You scare me for a second because I'm this 99.9% sure this game is in Cincinnati.

Yeah, it's it. but you said go to Seattle and I was like, wait. Where the games in Cincinnati. So, yeah, I think if you look prior to last week at some advanced metrics that look at like EPA, completion percentage over expectation, Burrow was the worst quarterback in the NFL through their first four games. Worst than Zach Wilson, worse than you name it. Last week, and he just, he couldn't plant, he couldn't move. And because he couldn't move, he couldn't go through his.

progressions and he was just throwing balls into the dirt. He was clearly hurt. Last week, he finally looked healthy. A couple throws where he had to kind of open up and throw to the outside were a little short. Other than that, all of his touchdown passes evading pressure. He was scrambling. He was going through his progressions because not only do I think he's now healthy, and then look, he's getting another week where that's an injury that just keeps getting better as long as you don't inflame it. But not only that, It's that Burrow didn't, was hurt leading up to the season. And which happened the past two seasons.

He had a knee injury one season and he had his appendix removed another season. And in each of the past now three seasons when he didn't, was not playing at all leading up to the start of the regular season, Dave, the Bengals have gotten off to extremely slow starts. And Burroughs like he's a timing-based quarterback. And once he gets going, he gets going. And that's what's happened. So not only do I think he's healthier, but I think also he's just gotten that natural timing down.

And to illustrate that in week six or later, in his career, he's 19 and 8 against the spread over 70%. And for what it's worth, he's 17, 3 and 1 against the spread in his last 21 games against non-divisional opponents. So he's not playing those defenses in the FC North that have really good defenses, have a good understanding how to attack the Sintzintz. team borough has been almost automatic.

So I think the Bengals are still under values. I don't think the market is really pricing into the fact of what I believe is that Burroughs, I would say 95%, maybe he's 100% this week. Just a couple, there's one or two throws just to the outside and he's got to open up and rely on that calf a little more. But other than that, moving around, scrambling, evading pressure, going through his progressions, and then, yeah, feeding Chase, which is always a smart idea. I think he threw it to 19 times, no, target him 19 times in the game.

And then the Seahawks, I don't mind another coming off by, but this is the team I'm looking to sell. Not a full believer in them. I mean, the last two teams they beat were the Panthers and the Giants. Who cares? And then before that, they had a decent win at Detroit, but Detroit had a number of injuries that week, you know, coming off the KC win. Seattle needed a pick six, and then they get the ball in overtime to score. Easily could have lost that game without the bad golf pick six. So not completely, look, Seattle is also not going to get pressure.

I know they got pressure on the Giants. Everyone does. But this is not a defensive line. It's going to get pressure on Burrow. So Burrough is going to be able to sit back there. Even though he's, I think he now can move around and evade pressure like he did last week, but he's going to have time to cook. So I'll trust Burrow over Gino at home where I basically just need him to win the game.

I think the Bengals are too low here. Yeah, this is an interesting spot for Gino because I just, I remember we having a really good game against the Lions. was 32 of 41. He was through for 330 yards. Controlled environment indoors. This game outdoors, crowd to be rocking. Like this is the spot last year down the stretch where he didn't quite look like the guy that, you know, became the comeback player of the year, 30 touchdowns and the guy they wanted to resign. Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I'm like you. I tend to go. This is usually when he regresses a little bit more than the time that like the following week he's playing the

cardinals. I would expect like three touchdowns. You know, at home. But this is a spot that, you know, is the reason he's kind of Gino Smith and people like, Middlecock, you're being a hater. I don't know. I don't buy it fully. Though Seattle secondary is pretty good. I mean, that Witherspoon, the guy they took fifth, which ultimately probably came down to him and Jalen Carter was a bold pick for them, but the dude's a fucking baller. Uh, and obviously Pete Carroll's a secondary guy defensively, you know, the giants were in such shambles. I mean, their offensive line, might as well have me, you and three other guys out there, so it's hard to judge their, you know, the 28 sacks they had on Monday night

football. But can they get after the Bengals? Was that more of an outlier situation? This is just an interesting game for both these teams to really, you know, however this plays out, I think we'll have a better gauge on both of them. Because to me, if Seattle wins, then like, are they competing for that fifth seat? You know, because it's Dallasam Lock to be the best wildcard team. They lose, then, you know, maybe that fifth seat ends up just being a bunch of teams, 10 wins competing for that spot. Yeah. Now, Seattle would definitely get my respect if they win this game. I'd have to take them a little bit more seriously. But yeah, at the end of the day, it's this is what I think is now almost 100% burrow against Gino Smith. Yeah, I do like the Seattle

secondary. Look no further than Illinois. The Illinois defense last year was elite. I mean, yes, they lost three guys in the top 75, one of them, Witherspoon, but the three defensive backs went the top 75, the NFL draft. Their defense this year is horrendous, horrendous. So, but yeah, I think the Bengals get it done here. This is a massive game for SINC to get back to 500, stay really in the mix and the AFC. I mean, they still can go on a big run, but they have the hardest remaining schedule.

If you look at strength of schedule rankings of any team in the NFL. So this is a big game to get at home after a slow start. You basically can feel like, okay, we're still in the mix. We survived with the borough injury. So I think they come out here really motivated. And I think they can get after Gino in that offensive line. Trey Hendrickson is playing out of his mind. Trey Hendrickson has six sacks.

Should have nine. He had three that were negated by illegal contact calls that really had nothing to do with the play. But he's playing out of his mind. So I think they'll pressure Gino into a couple of mistakes. And I'll, even if I, you know, if I'm down four late with three minutes to go and I need to borrow to drive the field of touchdown, I'm not sweating too much. And I'll trust him to win this game. Yeah. I don't think any of us have that much faith in the in the first place Pittsburgh Steelers right now.

You know, they hold on for dear life every single game. So, uh, yeah. Well, Stucky, let's, let's enjoy the week. That's, that's, you got me fired up on the Cincinnati. That's, and I, I might, you know, do a little money line and parlay. Maybe not money line, but the Giants Carolina. I like those stats past week six. That's, that's interesting.

Don't parlay them. Take, maybe, maybe that votes separately. I don't think both are good. Both winning would be why. Not a money line parlay, but just, you know, just take the big lines. Yeah. Maybe just throw a little couch change on both. Just a little scratch to keep me interested in the games that I wouldn't be that

interested in. Yeah. Have a good weekend. Enjoy the big college games. And then let's have a good Sunday. Absolutely. Good luck. The volume.

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