The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - TNF Reaction, Bye Bye Bill, Sean McDermott apologizes

Episode Date: December 8, 2023

John reacts to the Patriots win over the Steelers on Thursday Night Football, he dives into the future of Mike Tomlin as the Steelers Head Coach after losing to some of the worst teams in the NFL, will the Patriots and Bill Belichick part ways at the end of the season, Sean McDermott apologizes for comments that he made about 9/11 and how it could affect his future in Buffalo, and the Guinness Bold Take of The Week.  Lastly, John is joined by Stuckey from The Action Network giving you this weekends best bets. TNF Reaction - 4:53 Bill Belichick's future - 12:20 Sean McDermott apologizes - 20:40 The Jags get robbed - 24:49 Stuckey - 37:15 Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest. Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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What is going on? The New England Patriots and William Belichick take down the Pittsburgh Steelers, 21 to 18. It feels like Bill and New England has been beaten Pittsburgh for 20 plus years. Even at 2 and 10, I was out at a restaurant tonight with my girlfriend. She looked up. said, the New England Patriots are 2 and 10? I'm like, yes, Maria.

Their defense is really good, but their offense is putrid. But they score 21 points. They win the game. We will dive into Mike Tomlin. We will dive in to Belichick and the New England Patriots. And talk about some other stuff that we saw today. Sean McDermott was peppered today over, I guess an article came out from Ty Dunn on the Sean McDermott era. And I guess an instance that happened in 2019, about 9-11, which it's behind a paywall, wasn't

able to read the article. But I do think it's fascinating with the Buffalo Bills these next couple weeks. Is the guy coaching for his job, the Jags were robbed of $22 million. My main takeaway is, God, the NFL is flushing cash if it takes them years to find out that they're missing $22 million. And the bold take of the week, which I'm, I'm, excited for but before we dive into that all subscribe to the uh youtube channel appreciate everyone that has subscribe to the podcast three and out Spotify Apple iTunes same thing make sure you

subscribe tell all your friends tell all your enemies appreciate everyone that has and the volume dot com the volume dot com we have merch I'm rocking a hat right now and before we dive into some football stuff here's what I need to do next week I'm going to a concert for my girlfriend's birthday and I'm doing it because I have friends, I have partners, and I have the best ticketing app I think in America, and it's called Game Time. You download the Game Time app, you search tickets, football games, basketball games, hockey games, concerts, comedy shows. Any event you want to go to, download the Game Time app and search. And when you find it, use the promo code John, promo code John, J-O-H-N, John Rom, J-O-N, he's at

live. I'm John Middilcoff, J-O-H-N, and I'm here. Download the GameTime app, promo code John, $20 off, and buy yourself a pair of tickets. Holiday season, give a gift, and enjoy yourself and do it on us, promo code John. A lot of angles you go of this game, really. I mean, it's funny. I mean, the Patriots were kicking their ass early, the Steelers came roaming back, and the only thing I could think of, really the entire game was these two coaches. I read an article today about Belichick, about the trading for him. What could they get? What are the possibilities this offseason?

And I've been saying forever, Bill Belichick is not going to be the coach of the New England Patriots next year. Not because he doesn't know what he's doing. He's lost three games this year where his team has held the opponent 10 points or less. First time that's happened since 1938. Honestly, I didn't know football really existed before. like 1960. I don't claim to be a historian here, but it shows you. Bill Belichick really knows what he's doing. He's an excellent defensive coordinator. He's very dependent on his offensive coordinator, and he's very dependent on a quarterback, which he had Brady for two decades, and he had Josh

McDaniels for the majority of it, and they kicked the shit out of basically everybody. And listen, I like Alex Smith a lot. I actually have a lot of respect for Alex Smith, because when I was in college. The 49ers were the equivalent of who's the worst team in the league right now? The Carolina Panthers. I mean, there were a lot of bad teams, but they were as bad as anybody. They had bad ownership. They had bad coaching. They had bad players. They just had a bad organizational philosophy. They were a joke. And Alex Smith somehow just survived. He didn't play well. It wasn't all his fault. Sometimes you get kind of caught in the swamp of dysfunction. When Alex said, the other day that they benefited a lot from the division.

He wasn't wrong. The division, for the most part, the dolphins were awful, the Jets were awful, and the bills were putrid. The Jets had a couple years with Rex, and the Dolphins had like one year with Tony Sperano and the Wildcat. But for the most part, it was an embarrassment. He was right. But they also, any team they played that mattered, they beat, specifically the Pittsburgh

Steelers for decades. and Bill Belichick still knows what he's doing defensively. When I watch the Steelers, and we'll get to Bill in a minute, because I don't think this change as much, I've been saying this for a while. I think it was two weeks ago, they ended up beating the Bengals, and it actually aged pretty well because Jake Browning had,

I don't know, the game of his life on Monday Night Football, but they were losing the game for a minute. And I thought, is this it for Tomlin? They ended up winning the game, And I thought, well, they were seven and three. And then you looked at their schedule. They had four games. They're like, they're a lock to win.

I'm like, they're going to be 11 and 3. And people are going to go, how in the world does a team with Kenny Pickett as their quarterback, a team that sucks on offense, going to go 11 and 3 and be in position to like compete for the number one seat, let alone they're doing. It was like, what? Well, they're not. because they lost to the Cardinals, and they lost to the Patriots,

who I did the math coming into the game, were 4 and 20. Mike Tomlin, at home, at home, just lost to two teams in December when his team was 7 and 3 and then 7 and 4 to two teams who were combined 4 and 20. So listen, I think Mike Tomlin's good.

at his job. Not counting this season. It's not going great. But let me rephrase that. I think Mike Tomlin would have a lot of people who would be very interested in making him the head coach. If Mike Tomlin was fired, he would immediately, a lot like Bill,

have a job before you could blink. He would become a head coach instantly. I do think it's over in Pittsburgh. Like, it's time for a change. and I threw it out on social media and a lot of people are like, you think the Roonies, the Roonies are never firing Tomlin.

For a long time, I always support it. You can't have a time when you have a team that lose back-to-back games in Thanksgiving and early December to two teams who are fucking terrible. You're allowed to lose the Ravens,

you're allowed to lose the 49ers, you're allowed to lose to good teams in big spots. It's football. you can't lose the Cardinals and the Patriots in a four-day span and still be taking seriously. When they were already major question marks, you haven't won a playoff game in forever.

And again, I'm a Mike Tomlin fan. I do think, and I've been saying this for a while, I was in Philadelphia when Andy Reed fired, or was fired by Jeffrey Lurie, and it was just time. Now, it was easier because he had a four-and-12 season, but like your shelf life as a head coach is not infinite. It doesn't last forever.

There comes a point in time where it's just we need change. We need to press the reset button. Whether you are Bill Belichick, whether you are Phil Jackson, whether you are Joe Tori, I saw it with Bruce Bochy in San Francisco. I'm talking about guys who have won to combine like 25 championships and they move on. and they go to new places. It's healthy. I've changed jobs.

I'm sure many people listening have changed jobs. It is, it's like a reset on your life in a good way. And I watch Mike Tomlin and listen, I respect the shit out of this guy. And I listen to a couple podcasts with him coming into the season. And one thing he said is he was very, very excited to kind of prove his worth with a new quarterback and prove his worth

with a non Hall of Fame guy and kind of start fresh. I said it from the jump when they drafted Kenny Pickett it was never going to work. And then the moment he got injured, Mitch Trubisky sucks.

He really does. And there are certain backup quarterbacks where you can win some games. And then there are guys like Trubisky where I don't care how good your team is. I don't care if J.J. Watt get you 10 sacks a game or Minka Fitzpatrick picks off a couple of picks.

I don't care. You're going to lose way more than you're going to win. And the moment you have to start this guy, and it's not their choice because they're starting quarterbacks up in the booth with the coordinators, you're screwed. Now, I don't know who was behind giving him a second contract extension with the Pittsburgh Steelers, but that's beside the point. Like, this team needs new blood.

This franchise needs new blood. and I actually think Mike Tomlin would benefit a lot from just being like the coach of the Chargers next year, the coach of the Bears next year, the coach of the Washington commanders next year. I think it'd be your classic win-win. Look at the Eagles. They fired Andy Reed. He went to the Chiefs. He's had a Hall of Fame career as the Chiefs coach alone. They've gone on to win a Super Bowl with Doug, get to another one with Siriani.

Like, sometimes just going your separate ways in a divorce performance. professionally is the healthiest thing for every party. And I've been watching the Steelers, and I thought this a couple weeks ago with the Bengals. I've thought it way more these last two weeks. It's over. Like, where is this team going? Even if somehow they still make the playoffs, what is going to happen? Newsflash, nothing.

Nothing is going to happen. They're not going to win a game. They're going nowhere. I think the easiest thing to do in football is like, well, how do we upgrade? and I got this the other day in a mailbag question. Well, because this guy basically was saying that Pete Carroll is one of the most overrated coaches in the NFL over the last couple years.

You know, their defense is terrible. He's a defensive head coach. They've invested all this money. And it's so easy for everyone on the outside to go, well, how are you going to upgrade over Pete Carroll? How are you going to do better? Well, if you always have that mindset, how are you ever going to make any progress?

and I think the Steelers really hang their hat on well we've had three coaches in 75 years okay that's good and over a couple of them you won a bunch of Super Bowls but the last I checked you guys haven't won Dick in a long time

so how about we make a change not because we think Mike Tomlin sucks Jeffrey Lurie didn't think Andy Reid sucks he just knew it was time and I think when you watched the Pittsburgh Steelers and I'm someone that picked them to not only win the division, but compete with the Chiefs to win the conference. I had so much belief in this team in the preseason

and believe the hype and Kenny Pickett, and I feel like an idiot. And I watch them, especially these last two weeks, I'm like, it's over. Cut the cord. I don't mean fire him now, but at the end of the season, like, go your separate ways. He'll immediately get another job and go get another coach. Because guess what your job offer would immediately be?

the chargers if they were willing to pay anything would be number one because they have Justin Herbert. That job immediately would be sweet just because of the quarterback. But there is no job that would be better than like, you want to be the coach? I don't know of a team that never fires anybody. You'd be really high, even with some of your flaws. So Tom would immediately get a job and everyone would be lined up to be the head coach of the Pittsburgh fucking Steelers. It's like the New York Yankees, like the L.A. Lakers, like the D.A. Lakers, like the D.A. Dallas Cowboys, like Alabama football, it's like Duke basketball.

Like people want that job. It means a lot. It's why Mike Tomlin never wants to let go. I don't blame him. It's an elite job. It's why he was so offended a couple years ago when they're like, hey, would you want to take $100 million to be the head coach of the USC Trojans? And he was, I mean, he was, I've never seen a guy so angry over being rumored for another

job. And I understand it because you would never take the USC. see jobs. You're the head coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, but I just think it's time. And then when you watch the New England Patriots, Bill is not some idiot. Listen, he's old, and we can question how good of a GM is.

He clearly has some issues. But when you just look at his ability to influence the game, as a defensive head coach, he's been excellent. Like, he's still really good. And you can only, like Bailey Zappy. He's playing with Bailey Zappy. Now, if you want to

crush him for drafting Mac Jones, I gladly will. That's not in a million years. I would rather, if you're like, hey, I want you to draft this guy at 15, I'd say, fire me. I would never take that guy. And I said it with Kenny Pickett at 20. I'm not a believer in taking that guy

in the first round. I can't do it. I won't do it, to quote Mike Singletary. But he did it. And he was desperate for a quarterback, and this year it's bit him in the ass. And I was thinking when they were kicking the Steelers' ass, and it was like, 21 to 3 or something.

If he just had a decent offense with how good his defense has been in some of these games, I mean, they're probably a 5 and 7 team. And then they win the night. All of a sudden, they're like, they're not an embarrassment. Now, I still believe what I've been saying for a while. It's time to end this.

No different with Tomlin. Some things come to an end. Some divorces are inevitable. And in coaching, you don't get to like go out. out like John Elway. Like, I'm going out on top. It's not the way it works. You get fired. Check the history of any coach. They get shit-canned. I think Belichick, I read this article on The Athletic about his trade value. They basically polled and talked to a bunch of anonymous

GMs and executives around the NFL. And some believe, like, you'd still get a first round pick for Bill Belichick. Some believed it'd be complicated because you know, he doesn't necessarily have a GM that comes hand in hand. He's the GM and most people don't want him to be the GM. But as a coach, it can't be really disputed. You would take, especially, let's use the commanders as an example. If they got Belichick, let's do it this way. If I ran the Eagles and I ran the Cowboys,

would I rather have the commanders hire anybody or Bill Belichick? right, Ben Johnson or Brian Johnson or whoever Mike McDaniels guy is or just go around the league all these quote unquote hot shot offensive coordinators I would pay them to hire one of those guys because history would say a lot like a quarterback

that that guy is a 50-50 proposition at best right? Bill Belichick like if they actually have some players there and like I've been saying forever I was asked this the other day like what do you think happens with Sam how you think that the Washington would they draft a quarterback I said until I know who their coach is I don't think we can speculate on what the hell they're going to do

because if you tell me that Bill Belichick is their head coach I could see him being like I could win eight or nine games with Sam Hal right I remember Jim Harbaugh got that head coaching job for the 49ers Alex Smith was a joke he's like I want Alex Smith to stay here what happened the next year they won 13 games they made the NFC championship so I think Bill Belichick's offseason is going to be fascinating Now, I don't know the crafts. I'm not saying that it's a 100% lock that they fire him. Maybe they look, there's no better options,

but I do think it's time to break up, and I think they get some for them right now. And I think he's going to have a lot of value on the open market. Like I said earlier this week on a podcast, he has his offensive coordinator available. Like part of Bill Belichick, the power that is him, we talk a lot about Brady. It's actually Josh.

When you give Josh to Bill Belichick, two years ago they made the playoffs with Mac Jones. Mac Jones is terrible. So I think you're looking at two franchises here. I think they got new coaches next year. I think both of them have new coaches next year. And it's easier for me to say that with New England because of everything that transpired over the last couple of years.

It's easy to argue like, oh, Pittsburgh's not going to... I think we're no different than them. We all see it. Like, it's kind of over. I saw Sean McDermott. I didn't have access to the article. I don't subscribe to the substack that Ty Dunn writes. But there was an incident in 2019 where Sean McDermott said something about 9-11,

which I watched a press conference today, that he had friends dying 9-11. He's a New York guy. To me, I don't even, I have no take on that. It was hard for me even to follow the story. But one thing's pretty clear because something I said about Brian Dayball, a couple weeks ago, which I stand by, that his coaching staff is not big believers in the guy, not a huge fan of Brian Daibol,

is someone that covers the Giants a couple days ago text me and said, you got pretty good sources on Brian Daibald. And we started texting, like, you think Brian Daiball could lose his job with the Giants? And he's like, oh, it depends on the Maras. But the one thing I could see if Sean McDermott were to lose his job, him try to get back to the bills. Of course, I mean, you'd rather be with Josh Allen,

than anything the Giants have. And I started thinking that Sean McDermott, to me, given their history, even if this year gets weird and they miss, I believe he's earned enough these last three years, 13, 11, and 13 wins

to maintain his job. But that's not the way football works. These owners have never been richer. They've never been less emotionless when they turn on a coach. It's never been easier for them. to get rid of a guy regardless of his contract. So if the bills were to end up, let's just say,

look at their schedule, 8 and 9, it's not inconceivable that Sean McDermott is fired. And for the first time when I watched Sean, again, like I didn't know all the context of this 9-11 story in 2019. It was kind of irrelevant. All I know is there was a lot of heat when it comes to this organization. There is a lot of urgency to win and win now.

In these next two weeks, at Kansas City and then playing Dallas, might be the guy's Buffalo career. And I've known Sean for a long time. Whenever I see him, he's cool. When I text him, he texts me back. I'm a Sean McDermott fan. Now, I've never worked for him as the head coach. Like, listen, I can only speak to my relationship with him.

I like the guy. I think he's, I've always thought he was one of the most impressive guys in my 39 years of life I've ever been around, his discipline, his work ethic. You know, some of these stories that come out that he can be a dick, I never really saw that he's always cool to me. But clearly sometimes a defensive head coach, when you have an offensive-oriented,

I mean, they're a quarterback-driven team. Things can splinter fast, and there are a lot of stories any time you lose. But I think this guy needs to win. I think he needs to win fast. And I think these next two games, because all of a sudden you beat the Chiefs and the Cowboys and you're 8 and 6

and headed toward the playoffs to be a 10 or 11 win team, everything's okay. Hell, maybe you win a playoff game in a big upset fashion and everyone likes you again. But you go 8 and 9, you miss the playoffs,

things can turn on your fast. And these owners have so much money, you could kind of feel the tension when he was answering this question about something that happened. At first when I was watching this press conference and trying to figure out what was going on,

I'm like, he said this last week, trying to galvanize the team when shit was hitting the fan. No, this happened a long time ago. I'm like, God, when that type stuff happens, I got red flags on your operation. And I do think that there is legitimate heat. So this is a massive, massive weekend for the bills.

And listen, to play Andy Reed and the Chiefs, whose team is not as good as it's been, but to play them after a loss at home is not an ideal spot. I know a lot of people like, oh, it's a great spot for the bills. After a loss, I mean, at home in Kansas City? I don't know. I think it's going to be very tough. A couple more things.

The Jags were robbed of $22 million over four years. I saw someone tweet out that said, if anything has ever symbolized the success of the National Football League over the last decade, an NFL team could be robbed by an employee of 20, $22 million, and it took them years to notice. And it's one thing, the Cowboys, the Niners, some of these, the Packers, some of these huge brands,

the Jags, which got to be a bottom five, quote-unquote, brand. Pretty wild story. I mean, I read some of the athletic stories. This guy's buying cryptocurrency. He's buying Porsches. I mean, this guy, $22 million. And listen, anytime I've known some people that have had some small, businesses, some really small, you know, talking maybe a million or two in revenue and others

that were probably way more than that, that have been robbed by people that had worked for them. Money's all relative. And whether you own a company, you're not accounting for every dollar, you're not getting daily printouts, it's not as crazy as you think getting robbed by an employee. And I know I had a very, very close friend in one of these situations for less money. than this. And I think sometimes the employee feels, they look at you, they're envious is probably the wrong way to put it. They go, I'm doing just as much work as you. We're equals. Why don't I have any access to this money? And I think sometimes you get a convoluted, especially if you're a

little crazy. I would imagine this happens more than you realize because for every public incident is happening to the Sacramento Kings years ago and the Jags. I think it happens to a lot of companies with a lot of people. I know the two people that had it happened to them that I know they trusted these people like to the endth degree.

I know one of them was a girl and they would have trusted their lives with this girl. I actually went to high school with her and she robbed them of hundreds of thousands of dollars. So I do think that this stuff is a little more prevalent

than most of us realize. And other than that, before we get the bold take, Roger Goodell called Vegas Sportstown USA. One thing that's pretty clear, in my lifetime, for the majority, like in the 90s, the last 15 years, up until the last couple years, it's crazy how anti-gambling all these leagues were. And it just shows you, like, most of these people don't actually care. Like, I've said this forever with marijuana and the NFL testing for it. like half the owners are probably high as I speak right now.

They don't care about weed. They just care about the insurance premiums, the reason that they have to test the guy. It's all based on money. It's all just a spreadsheet. It's not, there's no emotion involved. It's not because they actually care that their starting wide receiver or DB

is getting high three times a week. The owner's getting high seven times a week. It's irrelevant. It's all about the bottom line. and I think the owners, most rich people, if you've ever gone to Vegas, hell, you don't even need to have money. I went there, you know, poor as a guy on the street

when I was in college, I had no money. I had to take a credit line from my credit card to get $1,000 to gamble that weekend for my buddy's 21st birthday. And I was like, this fucking place is incredible. First time I ever went to Vegas, I was 21 years old. I had just $100 in my name. The only money I had was like my $3,000 credit card

that I had to use to get some actual. cash, this place was incredible. I can't even imagine, and I've been since when I have more money, but being an NFL owner, obviously NFL player, people love Vegas. If you have money, it's very fun. There's a lot to do. And they don't even need to hide it anymore. And the Super Bowl's there this year.

I think more big events are going to go. They remember when Kamara got in trouble for beating someone up at a club. They had the Pro Bowl there. This place is going to be the mecca of sports. So when Roger calls it Sports Town USA, I don't think necessarily it's Sports Town USA, but it's Event Town USA. And it's big event town USA.

It's cool shit happens USA. And the NFL, while they have a team that is not very good there right now, it's kind of irrelevant. Stadium's cool and they have access to it. And it's probably the best thing they've done in recent memory because the Oakland area has now lost three teams in six, seven years. And if we were starting any franchise, from scratch, we could list 100 places

Oakland would not be one of them. They will never, ever get another professional team ever again. And Vegas is going to have all four teams within the next three or four years, right? They got a baseball team, they're going to have a basketball team, they obviously have a football team, and they have a hockey team. And now I was close to it, I was working with the Raiders, I didn't want to see them go. It's the best thing that ever happened in the NFL. It's obviously the best thing that ever happened to the Raiders.

financially, but the NFL used them, right? The chargers, it didn't matter where you put them. Throw the chargers with the Rams and put the Raiders. I think it worked out really, really perfectly. Now, ideally, I think if you could do it over again, if I was in charge, I would put the Rams in L.A., I would have kept the Chargers in San Diego, and I would have put the Raiders in Vegas.

And then I think we would have had something. But regardless where the chargers are, it probably doesn't matter. Before we get out of here, my bold take of the week, brought to you by my friends at Guinness. Now, I'm hot, right? I just had Alabama, beaten Georgia,

and they took care of business. The Army Navy game is this week is the only college game, which I got to go to when I was in Philadelphia. I would highly recommend. It is, you know, the football, both teams run like basically the wing tea, but the entire event, the pageantry,

the opening equivalent of the axe, and everyone flying, it's badass. It's, if you like football, like America, it's just, it's fucking incredible. But no take there. I haven't watched one snap this year of Army and Navy. Obviously, both programs are down. I do think, you know, listen, the Texans, what they've done this year is incredible.

And I would buy, if they were a stock, I'd put $100 grand into them yesterday for the next five years. I think they're like a rocket ship. I don't think they're a lot to make the playoffs this year. even how things are shaping. Now, I don't think that they usually could. They may end up 11 and 6. They could end up 10 and 7 and be in the playoffs. I also think it wouldn't shock me if they end up 9 and 8.

I think this week is the perfect storm. Big win against Denver. Me at home. Obviously, the Jags win. Everyone's feeling each other. And then you go to New York. And everyone, including myself, Jet Sok, terrible organization,

just fold the franchise. Zach Wilson, doesn't want to play. I could see Zach Wilson having a big game. You know why? None of it fucking matters. It doesn't matter. What does anyone have to lose anymore?

Clearly no one's getting fired. The offensive coordinators coming back from Rogers. Zach Wilson's not going to be there, whatever. He's got nothing to lose. I think the Jets win this week. Listen, it's the ultimate trap spot, but I also think it's just a weird spot. They would be one of the last teams I'd want to play on the road,

given the situation. I just think things get weird, and I think the Jets win, and I think Zach Wilson, listen, I think it's a one-off situation. My guess is Zach Wilson looks good this weekend. That is my bold take,

brought to you by Guinness. Gather your friends, raise your glasses, and toast to a win. Guinness drafts out, imported by Diageo Beer Company, USA, New York, New York.

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I don't care which I'll say it. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became. bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes,

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If you're watching this on a little thing called YouTube, make sure you subscribe. If you're listening on the pod, go subscribe to his podcast. Big bets on campus. We got bowl games. We got a lot of bowl games, and I already got a strong bowl take for the final four in terms of one of the games that I don't like. I love.

You can just find them on Twitter hammering out winners because that's what he did last week. 49ers, winner. Houston Texans, winner. Green Bay Packers, winner. And if you threw in my logic with Nick Sabin, winner, I mean, we were just handing out some cash last weekend, Stucky. Yeah, it was a good weekend.

It's been a good month. in the NFL, good season, so hopefully we can close strong. Are you going to share the Volge your Hot Baltic? Are you going to save that for our episode next week? No, no. Well, it'll build. I mean, we got a month, so we might as well just. Right.

So here's the thing. And I regretted it immediately when I saw it. I'm a Fresno State guy, so I've been watching Kalin-Divor's career. The guy's a fucking ass kicker. Now, his team looked weird at times, but he's proven this. A big game, that guy can really coach. now he's got a month. If I believe that Kalin-Nobor is a top five-ish coach,

it's happened pretty quickly the last like year, but I think if you just project him right, where he's going to be viewed schematically, his staff grub, his offensive coordinator, that Saban tried to hire. I'm a Stark Hater, historically. I'll give him his credit this year, team stacked. Conference sucks, though,

and he does have a high payroll, right, with the NIL. But his team looks good. I cannot, after one, Watching what he did against Oregon and Dan Lannning and Tosh Lupoi, I mean, Oregon's got a high-priced staff with a bunch of players, I thought he took it to him on Friday night. And that was a game. I would imagine, they say it's 50-50. That place was rocking with Green. And Kalin DuBore is just a big-time coach.

You give him a month? You know, it's like Sabin as an underdog in that game. You had to be thinking, like, of course his team was ready to roll, you know, against Georgia, who's not as good. Now, this, to me, the talent discrepancy of Texas and Washington, you know, you could argue it's a coin flip because obviously Texas is loaded, but Washington's pretty loaded too. They got a ton of guys that are going to get drafted in the first round. They got a ton of draftable players. I'm just betting on the coach.

And when you're going to give me five and a half, six, I mean, the number's pretty high, bro. And for a guy that, look at historically on Steve Sarkeesian, it's not like he's banging out 10 and 11 win seasons. This is kind of, this isn't kind of. This is an outlier year for him. and he's really benefited. That conference sucked this year relative. I think like two years ago last year it was really good. So I'm just, I'm going to hammer.

I might put an uncomfortable amount of money on Washington within the next week as long as that number stays about where it is. And it hasn't budged. So what do you think about the logic there? Just Kalen-Dubour against Sark getting a lot of points. Like that seems crazy to me. Yeah, I haven't dove in fully yet. The bowl market and those games are,

the market will be pretty settled. Like, it's not, it's not going to go to, it's not going to go to Texas three. So, and they're like big betters who would move the market. They're not going to tie up credit for that long. And so, and, you know, the Michigan-Alvama line, which is, it's not going to get to three either way.

And this is going to stay above three. So you have time. As of right now, you know, I have, like, weeks to dive into this matchup in depth. Yeah, I would lean Washington for a couple of reasons. You mentioned DeBore. I mean, not to get two into the week, But yeah, I just don't think that the market properly accounts for how good he is.

Even if you go back to his days as an OC at Indiana, Fresno, Eastern Michigan, and then even take his time at FCS, Southern Illinois, I think. Oh, yeah, Southern Illinois. As a coordinator, head coach since 2010, his teams are like 68% against the spread. I mean, he has just been a consistently good bet from a matchup standpoint, too. And number one, look, Washington did look weird. There were some rumors that they were dealing with the flu for a couple weeks. Their defense had a ton of injuries.

They were finally healthy. They started playing Bruner Moore at linebacker. I won't get two into the weeds. And then they also have three Sunday receivers who were now finally all fully healthy. You know, you got McMill and Polk in the Dunes Day all finally healthy for the first time in a while. The running back that Mississippi State transfer is pretty good, too. Yeah, I would throw him out. I would assume that's what DeBoer is going to do here.

You cannot run on Texas. Nobody can't do it. Don't try it. I mean, Alabama could and Ali Gordon with Oak State. No one can. Their D-line is unbelievable. They can't run. But their secondary has some weaknesses.

That's typically a corner. So Washington come out, spread them out with your three Sunday receivers. And I think that they'll have success there. So, yeah, I think that this probably should be a field goal. I think it's too high. I would lean Washington with you. Coaching Edge for sure for Washington, especially with this much time to prepare.

And, yeah, I don't hate your take at all. Xavier Worthy, too, for Texas, one of the best receiver return men in the country. I doubt he plays. I mean, Sark's going to not give anything away, but he's on crutches after the game, after their Big 12th championship game. So we'll see on his status.

He's really important, their most explosive receiver, one of the best return men in the country as well. So that would be a big loss. But the weakness on this Texas team is their secondary. And with your three healthy receivers now with Pennix and a month to prepare, that Texas defense could be in trouble. Texas is going to get its points as well, even though Washington's defense is playing better. I would lean your side and it should be an awesome watch.

It should be a highly entertaining game. There's a reason that the total is at 64. I think it's the prime time game I think the Alabama Michigan is the first game and they put that one at night That might not be the most exciting watch So yeah I think they got it right Yeah

Because last year Was an Ohio State and Georgia Was the second game And it was pretty unreal I think if you substitute Now we got a ways to go He's got to prove that he can do it For a long period of time at this level

But if we just look back in five years And let's say he's won the Big Ten And he's viewed as like No one even arguing argues it. Like if you just put Kirby or Harbaugh or you know, some, Brian Kelly or just a guy with a lot of name recognition as the coach of this Washington team, do you think you could shave two points immediately off that spread? Just the initial number? Yeah. I mean, I could tell you that in like the very, very deep, sharp betting groups. DeBoer is one of the most highly respected coaches in all of college football. So, and, you know, those groups and people tend to be. be a little ahead of the general market and the general public for sure. So, yeah, there's a reason he garners a ton of respect in some of the sharper circles that follow college football the closest.

So, yeah, I would agree with you. There's no reason to believe that his reputation and market value is just only on to climb. Well, even if, you know, let's say, you know, we're recording this right after a story about Harbaugh being offered $11 million, but he can. can interview with NFL teams. Like, guys, you do know NFL teams pay like $15 to $20 million. So it's like, it sounds like a lot of money to 99.9% of people, but relative to his profession and his, like, he can make, someone would gladly pay, Sean Payton just got $18 million a year. So if you don't think Harbaugh, someone would give him a number in that world, you're out of

your mind. But let's just say he leaves to the NFL. Now, I know the assistant offensive line coach, or not, he's not the assistant of it. He's the O-line coach, O.C. Sharon Moore, who did an awesome job with Harbaugh out. You know, at a job like that, you're not just a lock to give it to someone like that. To me, DeBore is the guy that Michigan would immediately call. Now, you could argue Seattle, great place.

They're going to the Big Ten. But let's face it, I mean, Michigan is just a better job than Washington. I'm a West Coast guy. Honestly, probably not even close. So, and Washington's an awesome job, right? So, I mean, Michigan's like fucking coaching the Cowboys or something, you know, the Yankees. I mean, it's a top two or three job in all college football,

and you have to wonder, you know, would he, like if I told you in a month that he's the head coach of Michigan, it's not the craziest thing to happen, right, if you factor in some of the variables of Harbaugh leaves. Yeah, and I also could see if Harbaal stays, Big Ten gets tougher next year. Ohio State still doesn't have a reliable quarterback situation. If they disappoint again, day is gone.

And disappoint, could just be, you know, he could go 11 and 1. He loses that game again. He loses that game again. I could see DeBorg going there. I definitely think he's going to eventually get a bigger job. He's probably the top name, I would imagine, if one of those spots opens up. You watch a lot of college football. You know, I guess I'm a little biased. I don't watch as much Big Ten besides, you know, the two main teams that matter the most. I'm just not Wisconsin and Iowa. I'd fucking rather watch Payne Dry. You know, you games like that, just given the way they've played lately,

are Oregon and Washington going into the next year just going to clearly be like the three and four teams right behind Michigan and Ohio State? Yeah, clearly. I mean, it is just, it's a enormous gap just from an offensive standpoint. There's, I mean, look, just look at who the Big Ten, I'm happy just because the Big Ten championship game now is going to be relevant. and the Big Ten West is just a joke. It's basically like a group of five conference trying to come out.

Whoever wins it now plays a Power Five team in the conference championship. So yeah, they're going to be right there with Michigan and Ohio State. And they might even be ahead of Michigan. We'll see where Michigan is. They lose a ton. And they're going to lose a ton to the draft. And then if Harbaugh goes, I think that's probably why they want to lock them up. Do you lose some recruits?

And so, yeah, Oregon. Even USC and UCLA, I mean, they are liable to knock someone off during the year. And USC could have one of the biggest turnarounds we saw UCLA's defense. And for once, Lincoln Riley made a good hire getting Lynn as their defensive coordinator from UCLA, former Ravens guy. So if their defense can take a leap and they find a quarterback, it looks like Oregon's probably going to get Dylan Gabriel. so they're going to be right in the mix as a top 5-16. They might even be the best team in the Big Ten next year. And then we'll see what happens with Washington,

but they're going to be right in the mix too. So, yeah, I'm excited because that entire conference gets more excited. It's sad that the Pac-12 is gone, but the Big Ten championship at least will be a banger of a game every year now. And at least the teams that matter for them are playing the Big Ten team, so they're going to be on major games and even Utah, you know, playing the K-States. and the Oklahoma states will be, you know, entertaining. Yeah.

When I watched Dylan Gabriel, I watch a lot of Oklahoma, is he kind of like a poor man's penix vibe to him? You know, lefty, you can move a little better, obviously, but the Oregon, they are not screwing around, taking their chances with any of their, you know, young high school recruits. They're just going to plug and play these guys and try to win big. I like it. Yeah.

Okay, let's dive into the NFL. We're just like a week away. we got Saturday and Sunday games so we're going to have a lot of action. I love that little stretch right after college football ends, get like the Heisman ceremony, but then the NFL's like, yeah, we're going to take over for a couple weeks,

and they're just throwing fucking games. Feels like every night of the week, multiple double-headers. So it's a fun time for the NFL as we have kind of this break and even those early college football bowl games, you know, my bulldogs going to New Mexico games like that, you know, are fun to bet on. They're not always fun to watch.

Depends. So this week, where you want to... You have the NFL games that matter on a Saturday. Then you have, you know, pay attention to it with your bets. Hey, flip it on if it's close, if it gets crazy with the bowls.

So it's, and, you know, there's not a hundred college football games you've got to pay attention to. So it's just a, it's a really good mix and makes those Saturdays spun in December. Okay, let's go to Chicago,

who I'll say this about Iverflus. His team has played a lot better, right? defensively, clearly they're better. The Justin Fields experiment, you know, has, I think a lot of people that want to defend them, just blame the offensive coordinator, who might suck, but I would also say if you just ran the plays that I think fans want to run, I don't think it would be as pretty as you think. So, they're, to me, a hard team to kind of gauge. Now, at home, divisional game, this is just your classic.

I don't kind of throw out the records, and let's face it, you know, the Lions in a dome last week, obviously can look really fast. They're probably offensively one of the, I mean, they're probably not that much different than the 49ers, right? Sweet, fast tied in, Jameson Williams. They've got multiple running backs, St. Brown.

Like, their team offensively, the weapons are pretty legit. Defensively, though, at any moment, like you can score 28 points on them. So it's just this one of those classic divisional games where you just, you take the team getting more in a field goal, especially at home?

Yeah, I like the Bears here. Anything over a field goal? the Bears two weeks ago a couple weeks ago should have beat the lines in Detroit they were up 12 with four to go one of my bets on the show luckily they held on to cover but they blew the lead late this number one in the spotlight

second straight road game bears coming off a buy which has a little more value late in the year when you're dealing with a couple more bumps and bruises but this Bears team's trending up these two teams are kind of headed in opposite directions defensively EPA per play since week seven Bears sixth on defense. Lions 29th. Success rate, Bears eighth, Lions 31st. So this Bears D look, they added sweat, helped their pass rush. Jalen Johnson's playing like an all-pro corner,

and they just got healthier across the board. So their defense is playing a lot better. Lions defense. It's a mess in the secondary. They had some injuries early on in the season, which didn't help there. And now they lost a player that many people might not be familiar with, but Aline McNeil, their nose tackle. One of the better interior, defensive lineman in the NFL. I think he's even better than Hutchinson. So important that day. He just went on IR.

Big major loss, especially in a game like this. And also, you know, not only this is a good spot for the Bears against the Lions' defense that has struggled with mobile quarterbacks all year. It's outdoors in conditions. It's not going to be as bad as it was originally forecasted, but still going to be, you know, 15, 20-mile-hour wins. It's going to be freezing cold outdoors. You mentioned how good the Lions are indoors.

Jared Goff turns into an absolute pumpkin outdoors his entire career. This is a guy who's 30 and 15 against the spread indoors. Outdoors under 50 degrees in December, one in six against the spread. You look at just as numbers this year, 8.1 yards per temp, indoors with two and a half touchdowns per game. Outdoors, 6.9 yards per attempt, one touchdown per game. His whole career, indoor, 5.3% touchdown percentage. cut that in half outdoors 2.8%.

He just, we talked about this I think the other week. He just is not the same quarterback outdoors and conditions. Bears' defense is playing a lot better. Fields is also playing a lot better. Worked on some of the mechanics of his drop back and his five and seven step drop when he was out. Offensive line is healthier. They should be able to run it now on Detroit without McNeil in there. So, yeah, I think you take over the field goal here with the Bears who are definitely

trending up in this lion's defense. It's just a mess right now. I mean, think about it. They almost blew that game last week against the Saints team that lost their quarterback. We're playing without multiple starting receivers and just is not very good offensively.

No, they're terrible. So this lion's D is a mess. They're kind of a finesse team too. And golf just struggles outdoors. So yeah, give me the Bears over a field goal. Monday night football while it was, you know, listen, it's probably

best game of Jake Browning's life. He was the player of the week in the NFL and the AFC offensively. It was cool to watch. Now, you kind of take a step back. If the quarterback just play solid, they do have really good weapons, chasing a lead player mixed. It's not that crazy. Their defensive coordinator is good. But what a devastating loss for Jacksonville, right? I mean, Houston just pulled that game out against Denver, so they're right kind of on your heels if you lose. You're in control, or you were winning the game, and Trevor's playing good, and then to lose him, which looked like, you know, a season ender, which, you know, turned out to be a little more basketball-y, where the guy, I think, really freaked out, probably thought

his career was over. Turns out he's going to be okay. But they also lose their left tackle. They're just banged up. They're only having one game, you know, up in the division. Now you've got to go to Cleveland, who's coming off, you know, an L who needs to win. Flacco actually look kind of capable in that game against the Rams. this is a rough spot for the Jags

that at one moment during that Monday night football game you're like oh they're going to win it they're going to have a ton of momentum and they're going to probably end up cruising by a couple games of this division now I wouldn't say I put all my money on the Houston Texans to win the division but it's definitely become very very interesting I don't know you know I think it's easy for Doug kind of old school NFL guy

to be like you know he's questionable like I mean there's a chance Trevor Lawrence doesn't play for several weeks right who knows maybe we don't see him until the playoffs but it's a major freaking concern and they lose their left tackle So, I mean, it's just a devonating. That play was to leave, any team in the NFL that lose their left tackle and they're starting, quote-unquote, star quarterback on one play, you literally can't have a worse play. Yeah, and you also, Christian Kirk, who's been their most productive receiver for two.

Is that the first play of the game? Yeah, very early on, I think the first drive, I don't know, first play. They also have defenders, too. So it's bad. And now, on a short week after that loss, you're going on. the road with C.J. Bethard, who is a, and for what it's worth, I guess I should say this. Every year

for the past decade, I've gone up to Cleveland, watched the Ravens play, visit some friends up there, have a good time. It's almost always this weekend. College football has died down. I don't have as much college football work so I can get away for a weekend. But for whatever reason, the schedule makers put Ravens at Browns

in September this year. So I picked this weekend to go up there. It's only one college football game. I was like, you know, this good weekend. Texans, Browns, both should be in the mix Excuse me, Jags, Browns, both should be in the AFC playoff mix. Fun game to go to.

Well, they both are still in the playoffs mix. Little that I know, it's going to be 30-mile-hour wins, torrential downpour, and it's going to be Joe Flack over C.J. Bethard. So at least I'm not going to the Steelers Patriots game. And also there's a bar right behind where we're sitting, which I'll be in most of the afternoon watching the other games. But I like the Browns here.

Look, Beatherd, he's capable. He knows the system. But now with offensive line injuries, no Christian Kirk in these conditions. And here's the one thing with Beather, he's not mobile. He can't move around and you're going up against that Brown's defensive front. It's going to lead to disaster. And look, this Browns, I don't know what it is. I mean, this Brown's defensive.

If you look, metrically speaking, they're number one in the NFL EPA per play. But at home, they dominate. They are allowing 10 points per game at home, which is a stupid number. They're allowing 30 and a half on the road. I don't think I've ever seen that much of a discrepancy. If you just look from an EPA perspective, at home, just in their home games this year, a small sample. But they would be the greatest defense in the history of the NFL for a single season. Now, granted, other teams have to play a full schedule and it's only been with six or seven games.

But it shows you how dominant they've been at home. and now you're going up against a backup quarterback injuries on the offense on a short week I don't know how the Jags are going to have any success in this game in those conditions and Flacco's had a lot of success in his career in the wind you know he's Cooper might not go Denzel Ward should be back on defense for the Browns which is important but Flacco can still throw a deep ball even in conditions and if it's a little short guess what you're probably going to get a couple of PI calls here I trust the Browns offense a little more but most importantly the Brown's defense will be without Lawrence, without tackle, without

Kirk, even E.TN's backed up, even Betherd's little banged up. I know. With all those injuries, the Brown's defense, by far, the Brown's home defense, by far is the best unit in this game. It'd be a pretty crazy if they lose that game and the Texans are playing the Jets and now Zach Wilson inserted back, all of a sudden they'd have the same record. Guess who Jags up next week with maybe Nogne Lender.

Without Lawrence, the Ravens. So it would change fast. Now, to me, the Texans Jets game kind of does have a little bit of a feel that you'll, you know, I don't feel. They're going to lose that game, probably. Exactly. You know, that's one thing, you know, Sala,

D'emico was his lineback. They're going to know each other pretty well. That one, I wouldn't be as confident betting on the Texas. I will say one thing about football, which is funny, and I'm guilty of this. We anoint guys. Like, oh, they drafted Sauce Gardner. They should have picked Derek Stingley.

They should have taken sauce. All of a sudden, you watch Derek Stingley, dude looks like fucking Revis out there moving around, picking the ball off. He's a much smoother athlete than sauce. And here's the thing about sauce. Good player. For a big corner,

I kind of like that guy to be a physical tackler, like Jalen or Sherman. He is not that at all. So this notion, sometimes we, We do that when two players same position are picked, and the one guy has a lot more early success, and the other guy's really coming on. I know this.

I take Derek Stingley, assuming like he's just going to stay healthy because physically he is a freak. And I understand why they took them. I mean, if they hit on that pick along with their other guys, whether they end up winning 10 games this year or they end up going 8, 9, whatever, their future is as bright as anyone when you factor in all these rookie contracts.

Yeah, I mean, you got your, you could have a top, you have a top 10, quarterback. I think I think that's fair to project. You have a top 10 quarterback next year. Yeah. Second year. And he's kind of been one this year, right? Yeah. You could argue next year you could get into the top five. And you have him on a rookie contract. And then, you know, you have Anderson. Their defense is starting to come along. You have the two most important positions. And yeah, Stingley's look great. You have Stingley and Anderson. And by the way, it sucks that he's out for the year. It's really going to hurt them.

He break his ankle? Yeah, who I love, but you, that's one of the other most important positions in the NFL, a star receiver. You also have a really good left tackle. So yeah,

they are set up for success. If they can find a way, they have a pretty easy schedule. I agree that that Jets game is very trappy. But the Jags, Browns, if you look at like the, you can look at like, the leverage,

decks is the most important game of the weekend is that Jags Browns game the winner loser of that game like the Browns lose it's going to be really tough for them um to get to the playoffs if the Jags lose all the sudden you know you're yeah you're in the wild card hunt or you're not even a lot for the division you got the Ravens on deck so that game is very important it's also very important for you know that a lot of other AFC teams in the wildcar mix like the bills i just took a future on the bills this week a little 50 to one flyer to win the Super Bowl because I think there's going to be chaos. And the one thing I know in the NFL is all these teams down the stretch that need to win, more times than you would ever think they end up losing, especially

in the last week. You always expect chaos in the NFL. Perfect example will be the Texas losing the Jets this weekend. So, yeah, if you're one of those other IFC teams, it'll be a fun. One of the reasons I bet the bills too is just for Calch change. It'd make the whole, the rest of the season even more fun because every one of those games, I'll have a little, like, I'll even rooting interest tonight. I can root against the Steelers who were in the mix and I can root otherwise I would cut my limbs off with a butter knife instead of

watching that game. So think how good you'll feel if the bills win this week and next week all of a sudden they beat the Chiefs and the Cowboys, you're like, geez, I mean my team's getting hot. Now it could go the other way too. Yeah, then they're done if they lose the next two. This is a if they lose this game,

I actually think they're going to beat the Chiefs, but if they lose, they got to win out. They get the 10 wins and that includes the dolphins and the Cowboys. So this game is just massive. If they went out, they're in. They'll get the 11 wins. But they probably realistically got to get the 10. And then you might need help.

But that should get you in with seven teams, even though it's not a guarantee. But I'm sure that the teams, yeah, whoever gets the Ravens, dolphins play each other, New Year's Eve. Most likely that'll decide the one seed. Loser, that game gets the two. Luke, not only do you not get a, so say you lose that game,

not only do you not get a buy in home field advantage throughout, your prize could be the bills on that first weekend. So just that could be an absolutely massive game. I would say the Ravens would be much more equipped to handle that game at home than the dolphins. That would suck because they had obviously would have had a fantastic season. All of a sudden, I mean, what's the line on that game, assuming the bills have been playing well.

I mean, it's not as big as you would think for your typical 2-7 game, right? So that would, I'd feel bad because... It could be a pick that game. So I think the dolphins, you know what's crazy is when you look at the AFC and NFC, is like whoever is the healthiest and comes out playing the best out of the Cowboys, Niners, and Eagles are clearly going to be the favorite in the Super Bowl, right? I mean, and it could, depending on who they're playing, be the pretty big line for, you know, Super Bowl Sunday.

the AFC is pretty fucking nuts. I mean, it's pretty wide open. The Chiefs are clearly a shell of themselves, what they've been over the last five years. Do you trust the Dolphins? I mean, when's the last time the Miami Dolphins won a playoff game? Their record speaks for itself about going on the road in cold weather conditions. So getting one of those top seeds is basically a must.

I mean, if they want to have any postseason success, you know, listen, not to talk shit about your Ravens, but it's not like we have a long resume. about Lamar come these January big games. Now their defense is really good relative to their competition. You'd say, well, they should probably win the AFC if all things are going well. But it's... That's one of the reason I took a fly on the bills.

If they get in, they could go through... They could run through the AFC. We thought the AFC was a lot better. It just turns out with the injuries and the way it's broken out on their side, it turns out the NFC just turned out, you know, because at the top, which is all that matters. Yeah, both conferences, the NFC, it's just better. conferences the NFC's top like I have the 49ers the number one team by far I actually have the Cowboys right now number two but the Chiefs offense has been a mess not at not many people could

have predicted how bad it's been so they're just a shell of themselves and you had so the iFC now is basically a three-team race unless the bills get in and it's the Ravens the Chiefs and the dolphins and all of those teams have loss and the Mark Andrews loss is huge for Baltimore as well but it was supposed to be the AFCs would be 7, 8, 9 team, unless the bills get in, which is kind of the wild card here. But there's supposed to be 7, 8, 9 teams deep. Trevor Lawrence

now injury, you can give him out. Herbert, he's going to be out. He's one of the top 10, 15 quarterbacks. Burrow got hurt. I mean, it's... Aaron Rogers, Jets, never been a factor. Aaron Rogers goes down for the Jets. So you had, you know, five or six quarterbacks.

You even have some of the other guys going to, can he picket, getting hurt? I mean, if he, a quarterback back injuries in the AFC this year have been ridiculous. So yeah, it's definitely way more wide open and it's going to be a lot easier of a path for those top seats. But as of right now, I definitely would make the NFC a favor. I don't condone, you know, in any profession, but obviously a public profession where, you know, you're on social media a lot going after someone's wife or girlfriend. But Jamal Adams' quote of when they go low, I go lower.

is a pretty solid quote. I got to get, that's a good line, even though Pete, I saw yesterday was not happy. He told, you know, basically we do not, we don't do that around here, but Jamal refused to back off. This is just, listen, that game last week for the 49ers, the moment the schedule came out, they had been talking about, they never hid from it. It's a big deal in 49er land for fucking nine months. Honestly, the moment Purdy got hurt. They already knew they were playing the Eagles on the schedule the next year because of the, the divisional rotations.

That was a Super Bowl level game for Kyle, for the team, for Debo, for everybody. And that was a kitchen sink game. And they beat the shit out of them, which, as we talked about last week, it's not that crazy. They had just beat two teams that are two of the better teams in the league, definitely two of the better quarterbacks in the league in six days, ran out of juice, the Niners leaned on them. You know, I saw Fred Warner say yesterday, like, we got to move on.

It's the NFL. We can't just keep talking about the Eagles here on Wednesday and Thursday. but it's like keep getting talking about, right? With Dom, it's just, I'm not saying they put their feet up. They're obviously a team that, you know, it's not just favored to win the Super Bowl, just if you watch football, they should win the Super Bowl. I could see them, you know, Seattle, and Fred Warner said this. Despite some of these games, the score looking a little worse.

If you watch the game, the game can feel a little weird at times, and he's not necessarily wrong. Now, on Thanksgiving, you know, I think the final score was 31 to 17, but the Niners were up, what, 21 to 3 or something at half? So it was, the Niners beat the shit out of them. They are clearly way better than Seattle. But I could see this game. If you told me they were down 17 to 10 at half, just sleepwalk through it. Even the crowd.

I could just see the buzz in this place is not. Now, if they were playing the Ravens, like they were in a couple weeks or something, but these next two weeks against Seattle and Arizona, I don't know, I could see the Niners going a little like University of Washington after they beat Oregon. They're going to win, but these enormous spreads. I mean, next week against Arizona, assuming they win this game,

regardless by how many is what? Double digits, you know, 14 points. So I would just be very careful these next two weeks. Not saying they can't, because they easily can, but I don't expect a loss. This game, to me, would be more loseable than next week, if just, you know, Gino was hot and the wide receivers. But I definitely,

could see this thing being weird for a while. Yeah, I love Seattle here. I mean, I loved San Fran, San Francisco last week as soon as they rolled. Upset spot or just the point? I could say it's, I think the 49ers probably pull it out, but I think this has the feel of like it's seven, it's 20 to 20 with five to go. And after a slow start. Yeah, I mean, look, you have, they're coming back cross-country with a huge win,

could come out a little flat. Not only that. And they're at the peak of their market. now. I mean, like, they've won four straight in dominant fashion after the bye week. I mean, in the NFL, what you really want to do is sell high, buy, low. This is the perfect spot to do it after that big game. And then, by the way, Seattle has lost three straight. Two of them, you know, one by one point. Then they lost the Cowboys in a game they fought. And then they got blown out by the 49ers.

Geno Smith wasn't really healthy that game, short week. Whatever, 49ers are clearly better. But they played last on Thursday night. They have more time to prep, more rest. And this is their season. As you said, kitchen sink game. Carol said, look, we're going to show up. We're going to make the playoffs. And there's one thing Carol's good at. He is the Tomlin of the NFC. In these spots, he always gets his team ready to go. And they'll show up. He's, for what it's the past 20 years, he's 50, 33, and three against the spread as an underdog. 60.2 percent. 20 and 12 in the division. Second most profit about 150 coaches over the past 20. He's only behind, Mike Tomlin.

He's also 21 and 5 against the spread, 81% when his team is on a losing streak of two or more games. 81% covering by about a touchdown per game. Most profitable coach in NFL history in that spot. And then just to provide added context to the buy low, sell high spot, divisional road dogs of more than 10 points, usually like, hey, the other division team is rolling at the time. no one wants to fade them. 56% over the past 30 years. Teams laying double digits after four or more consecutive wins over the past 20 years.

So again, one four or more straight, your double-digit favorite, so you're playing a team that you're clearly better than no one wants to fade you, right? So line can be a little inflated. You also could just be a little flat. You're not going to always be sharp in the NFL every week. Those teams since 2003, 61, 80, and 1 against the spread, 43. 43.3%. So yeah, this is just the spot. Double-digit road dog.

Double-digit road divisional dog playing for its season. A lot of familiarity between these teams. 49ers could be flat. Seahawks will give you everything they got. So, yeah, I think that's this... I'll say like 49ers end up winning like 2420 somewhere around in that ballpark. Any thoughts before we get out of here on the Cowboy Eagle game?

I like the Cowboys. I wish it was at a field goal or better. I just, look, the Eagles, they lost, we'll see if the Cowboys could finally win a big game. I mean, they dominated the Eagles in Philly, and then they just did with Dallas and Dack does it. In the big moments, they melt. But there's no reason why their offense, now on a fast track where they just have been dominant, can't do the same thing they do to the Eagles defense, right? The offense line is fully healthy.

They completely handled the Eagles pass rush. And the Eagles cannot defend, because all this last week again, Cowboys have the same, they have good tight end, you know, you put C.D. Lamb in the slot, quarterback playing at a high level. You could pick apart this Eagle secondary. So there's no reason why the Cowboys shouldn't move up and down the field just like they did in Philly.

And their defense, I think, I trust that they make a couple more plays, especially at home. And you have to remember that this Eagles team, just because they lost last week, there's still a residual fact they've played. I mean, how much do they still have left in the town? You went the Cowboys to the Chiefs, to the Bills in overtime, to, you know, a hyped game against the 49ers. Now you've got to pick it up, go on the highway and go to Dallas.

Dallas on extent. The Eagles are getting no break on their schedules here. They've been lucky overall, but now their schedules has been very unlucky. 49ers, revenge spot off a couple of lost, extended rest while they're playing a game, you know, where they're on the field for 100 plays. Now they play that game, Dallas off a game where they played on Thursday. Already at home. They're sitting at home, a couple extra days to prep, rest. So I like Dallas.

I wouldn't lay three and a half. But I threw it in some money line parlays with the dolphins. I think they win. And we'll learn a lot about Dallas. If they can't win this game in this spot, and I know the Eagles could get Dallas Goddard back, which would help because they need a third receiver, but they can't win this game in this spot.

Totally agree. They're not winning the NSIC. You can write them off. No. for sure. I mean, one thing for the good thing for Philly, even if they lose, because it would feel like our season just fell apart in two games. Dallas then does, I think, play the bills and the dolphins back-to-back game. So it's, they still got a long way to go. Yeah, they got a long way to go. So then the Eagles, I think, play Seattle on that Monday night game and next week to get,

they got flexed. Yeah, and then they get really easy schedule. And the thing is, if you're, they play the, I think they haven't even played the Giants yet the season. They play twice to end the season. Yeah. And yeah. So, and if you're looking at it, if you're worried about tiebreakers, if Dallas wins this game, then they're tied record-wise. But.

But conference. Philly would still have, if the season ended today, Philly would still have the division. And that's it. You know, if they remain tied, if they won out from that point on, and Philly's much more likely to win out. But because they both lost to San Francisco. Arizona. Dallas's losses to Arizona.

Philly's losses to the Jets, both bad teams, but one's out of conference, Philly would get the tiebreaker. So the Cowboys have to pass them in the standings, unless they lose like a couple more division. They each lose a couple more games and end up tied. But Philly, Philly has still been... That Arizona game is a pretty devastating L for Dells.

Multiple ways. Could come back to haunt them multiple times. Yeah, I think this is... One thing about Philly is, you know, Redick is really good. He played for any. anybody. But Fletcher Cox is old. Brandon Graham is old. They're two young stud defensive tackles.

Like one guy weighs 350 pounds. It's just you get tired easier. And Jalen Carter is a rookie. It's mid-December and they've already played typically what he would do in a college football season. So he's got to be gassed. He doesn't have the same quite impact in December that maybe had in October. And he's probably their second most talented defender.

And their secondary, I mean, I think the Niners felt pretty kind of. talking a lot of shit about Bradbury because they know they can't cover them. And their safety positions, like they're not covering guys in space. I mean, who's covering Ferguson? I mean, it's just that they're back seven because ultimately they're D-line, like those guys, even if they are a little gas, are still big-time players. But the back seven is pretty awful. I mean, there's a reason they were begging Shaq Leonard, who was just cut in the middle

of the season to come to their team. It's not pretty. And if you have speed and talent, which the Cowboys have, the 49ers have, the Lions have, if you can just block them a little bit, it's going to be hard. Like, they're not going to be all over you. Yeah, yeah, if you can block their offensive line. And the 49ers don't even have an elite offensive line.

No. The Cowboys have a better offensive line. They can handle them. So, like, there's no reason why. Like, there's Bradbury, there's a lot of data out there. Now, there's different types of corners. You could have a corner, you know, a guy like Richard Sherman played late into his career, play a lot of zone.

Eagles play a lot of men. a lot of data out there once you hit 30 31 as a man corner it's kind of like a running back you just you lose a step and in today's NFL your production goes down quick and fast it's different for different I'm talking just on average in general could be 32 for some but bradbury and sleigh they have not played well this year played well last year I think that they might be on that cliff and it's really impacting the back end of their defense because If you have two corners you can really trust, then some of your other areas of weakness, they're not as exposed.

But, yeah, Eagles defense has major issues. So we'll say, yeah, I think that in order for Dallas to win the NFC, they need to find a, they need to win this game to prove to themselves that they can beat either the Eagles or the 49ers. And they need to find a way to get to win the division. they're just a mentally kind of fragile kind of finesse team whereas the Eagles and 49ers they're kind of you could play out you could play either one of those teams

we go outdoors playing the snow you play indoors so the Cowboys that Cardinals loss which could keep them out of contention for the division for the one seed could end up being their ultimate downfall and it's crazy it's one thing to have a freak loss to a bad team They kind of got their ass kicked in that game. Yeah. Wasn't like anything fluky with turnovers.

No, it wasn't some late two pick sixes in the fourth quarter. It flipped the game or something. It was just they got worked by Josh Dobbs. Well, Stucky, let's have a weekend and kind of come down this home stretch. Yeah, let's do it. Pray for me when I'm out in the conditions in Cleveland. Hopefully not with a losing ticket in my hand. So go Browns.

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