The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - TNF Reaction, Davante Adams' comments, the "real" Miami Dolphins

Episode Date: October 20, 2023

John reacts to the Jags 31-24 win over the Saints, how the Saints offense just isn't good, and how Jacksonville proved that they are the best team in the AFC South. He also dives into Davante Adams' comments and if he's justified saying what he said, and finally John talks about the Dolphins and how we all might be overreacting to just how good they really are. Stuckey from the Action Network joins John to talk about some of the best football bets of the weekend. Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest. Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Just kidding. We will talk. Derek Carr and the Jags just watch Saints lose. That was, beside a couple drives, was not very pretty. Trevor Lawrence guts it out, Jags 5 and 2. Bizarre 5 and 2 team, definitely didn't feel like a 5 and 2 team. Some thoughts on Devante Adams, some thoughts on the Miami Dolphins, who everyone's just anointing.

Did a little deep dive of their schedule. I think we should pump the brakes a little bit. We'll come into that. And the bold take of the week, as we do every Friday. I might have got last week right. Said someone was going to get fired. Frank Reich fired himself from play calling, not from the job.

So we will do the bull take of the week. And no mailbag. I see a lot of you guys asking questions in the Instagram at John Middlkoff is the Instagram handle. Fire in those DMs. I'll try to maybe have some cocktails this week and manually respond to some of you guys. That was always a Gary V thing. He claimed back in his heyday, he would like respond to everyone.

That takes a lot of effort. It's hard. But, you know, what else do I have to do? Watch football, respond to DMs. I will attempt to do some of that this weekend. And yeah, so we've had podcasts all week. If you miss any, subscribe to the feed. If you listen on Collins feed, make sure you subscribe to the three and out feed.

Never miss a show. Let's rock and roll. Thursday night football, Jacksonville beats the Saints in an awful thriller. And Trevor Lawrence, stats won't show it, but, you know, I think most people agree. After you witnessed that, you would gladly take him over the highly paid Derek Carr. We will dive in to all elements of the game. I have some thoughts on Devante Adams.

I saw some of his comments and everyone had an angle on it. I feel pretty strongly about what he said and how it doesn't impact the way that I think about him. And then I thought on the dolphins. Have we anointed them a little bit too quickly? and why this week is pretty big for them and then of course the bold take of the week we'll dive into it all subscribe to the podcast three and out with me john middilcoff

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before we dive into some football talk let's tell you about some very good friends of mine did you watch that game and go, God, I want to go to a game this weekend. I want to go to a game in November or December, a football game, college or pro.

I'm watching it. I want to go to the World Series. The NBA's about to start. I want to go to a game. I got you covered. Go to your app store on your cell phone. Download this little app called GameTime. They're the official ticketing app of this podcast.

And when you do it, get some tickets. And when you sign up for your first pair of tickets, use the promo code, John, J-O-H-N. J-O-H-N promo code John $20 off your first pair of tickets concerts, comedy shows you name it, anything use their interactive ticketing map

you get a line of sight see how you would see from the seats also includes the price point and then just hammer that promo code John. Okay where do we want to start with a Thursday night game I'll start with the Saints because beside a couple drives

and again like last week his yardage, Derek threw for over 300 yards. He was 33 of 55. And he had one really good drive after a terrible call by a Super Bowl winning coach, Doug Peterson, when he went for it on fourth and short from a shotgun inside zone. Now, his quarterback's injured, probably limits his play calls, but still, I think he'd even bet to you over a cup of ice cream, you know Doug loves the ice cream, that he would like that one back. And I think simply the number one theme, the game is this Saints offense is just not good enough.

Something is way off. And here's the thing. They paid a lot of money for that quarterback. They gave him almost a $30 million signing bonus. That means the moment Derek signed within a 14-day window, he got $28.5 million. And

no matter what happened to him, $60 million of that contract was guaranteed. And I, listen, I've known him since he was in high school. When I worked at Fresno State, It was a senior year in high school. He was committed to us. Obviously, he came the next year.

I have followed his career very closely. I don't think he's playing very well. I actually think he's playing really poorly for his standards. Clearly, the offense, the cohesion in the passing game, I don't give a shit about the stats. It doesn't look right. Something is way off. And you go, well, maybe there's not enough talent

because we always love doing that. I don't see it that way. Michael Thomas is more than serviceable as a big outside wide receiver. Alvin Kamara is a star. The guy can do it all. Taysam Hill, you talk about a guy, everyone talks shit about, and I get it as a quarterback. He's not a quarterback, but Taysam Hill could play on my team any day of the week. He can line up in slot, he can line up in running back.

He's a very, very versatile chess piece. Alave is, you know, a speed-wide receiver still working through as a young player, but he's clearly really talented. Number 22 is also really good. He's that's a big catch is this year. Like, they got talent on offense. The cohesion between the offensive coordinator, Derek, and the weapons is just not there. It looks way off.

Some of these go routes in the end zone, and they've done it two straight weeks, makes you shake your head. What is going on? And you know what? I'm kicking myself because I felt pretty confident, and listen, they may still end up winning the division because the South stinks.

But Derek and Dennis Allen, say that out loud, John. That is not going to work, and it's not working. And you saw it tonight. Dennis, I think their defense is pretty good. good. And obviously he's a defensive head coach. When he was a defensive coordinator, they were Sean Peyton. Their defense was really good. He knows defense. He can motivate that side of the ball. But as a head coach, when his offensive coordinator and his quarterback that

they're paying a boatload of money to are having issues, there's nothing he can do. I feel pretty confident in saying, I bet Dennis Allen doesn't even know the majority of their plays in the playbook. I think he knows their philosophical ideas, but do I think if you just said the specific play calls, he would know who's going where, no fucking chance. And this always speaks to when you have, and this is Collins' big thing, defensive head coaches, the impact on the offense, they can't do anything. Beside motivation and beside look at the guy, play better or calm down, or it's going to be okay.

But in terms of actual coaching, specific X's and O's, specific offensive ideas, he doesn't bring anything to the table. So when you see the quarterback in shambles, kind of screaming at guys, him and the offensive coordinator kind of getting into it. The head coach, which him and the quarterback are always the most important guys in your building, beside the owner, can't impact the game at all when it comes to his offense. And he's just kind of standing there, looking. Occasionally he can call time out.

Occasionally he can let the offense go for it. But I don't know what the final numbers are, but I saw right before, I think, the final drive, the New Orleans Saints, they went three of 18. 3 of 18 on 3rd down That is that's beyond anemic That's embarrassing Now they went for six on fourth down

So they got a bunch of those So obviously they didn't punt as many times As they normally would have Right so they essentially got seven first downs In those scenarios But to not convert on third down To me they're a terrible third down team I don't know where they rank

After tonight relative to the league They feel like one of the worst. worse in the NFL. And their red zone, a couple weeks ago, everyone was blasting the Dallas Cowboys and their struggles in the red zone. Obviously, it's a big topic around the NFL, red zone offense, scoring offense. I wonder if a little bit all these teams are less inclined to kick field goals. And you can think field goals aren't that big a deal. But if you're averaging 18 points and you're passing on a couple field goals every other game, that could be the difference between averaging 23 points and 18 or 19 points. Again, seems small, but in the aggregate throughout the whole season,

it's kind of a big deal. But to me, the red zone offense, for whatever reason, I don't know if it's the rules at practice, I don't know if it's players changing, I don't know if it's lack of offensive creativity with a certain amount of coaches, but you watch Derek Carr, you watch the Saints, it's not their skills. They have skill guys. They have enough talented guys on the outside. This experiment is not going well. Now, they're not. not out of it by any means because of the division. But I would say early on, and I think Saints fans would agree, this is a borderline disaster. Forgiven that no one thought that they were going to beat like the Niners or the Eagles,

but I thought it was realistic with their defense and with a talent on their team. If Derek could just be, I don't know, a top 12, 13 quarterback, they could be an 11-win team. I mean, they're going to struggle to win nine. You can't depend on them at home. And like Seattle forever with Russell Wilson and Pete Carroll, I always viewed New Orleans is one of the best home field teams. Why?

The environment's crazy. They were booing these guys in like the first quarter. It's the middle of October. It'd be one thing if it's like December and your way out of it. This is October. Your team's three and three and they're booed them. And honestly, they had every right to boo. If you were a paying customer and went to see that,

especially when you've been used to Sean Payton and Drew Brees, it's a big WTF. This is the guy we paid all this money for. And it's not like Ryan Fitzpatrick, you know, I kind of said at halftime they should bench him now. I think he's boys with James. They played together in Tampa. You're not benching Derek.

And then Derek all of a sudden will kind of play just the tip with you. Like it'll have a moment. Let him on that drive. So you're like, oh, there's something there. And then the end of the game happens. Like, what is going on? So he's just a head-scratching player. He really is.

He's been one of the most polarizing players in the NFL for a long time. And tonight did not go his way by any means. So the Saints, I don't even know what to say. say. I think they are, they're clearly not going anywhere this year, but to miss the playoffs after paying a quarterback that much money and have that much talent on your team would be unacceptable. It really would. Now, I don't really have that many takeaways from Jacksonville, beside, like, I thought Trevor's arm was a little stronger. Now, clearly his knees a little messed up. I give a guy a lot of cred for playing injured. We talk about this a lot with

We love talking about the arm strength and the athleticism and how tall the guy is. It's hard to quantify toughness. We talked about it last week with Michael Pennix in the Oregon-Washington game. He was getting destroyed. Kept shaking it off, kept getting back in the huddle. I learn a lot evaluating a quarterback, rooting for a player when I think the guy's tough as nails. And I saw tonight Trevor Lawrence, clearly his knees a little messed up. I mean, short week on the road.

It would have been an easy one kind of wave the white flag. your division sucks. As long as you get to 10 wins, you're going to have a home playoff game. Dude played, found a way to win, made some plays, definitely made some plays with his legs. Jacksonville's 5 and 2, and I think they're going to win this division. I mean, this thing could be over in early December when you factor in Tennessee's shambles with their quarterback, and their team's clearly not as talented as has been. You know, Houston, they're still really young and they have a rookie quarterback.

So I don't see how, you know, when the dust settles here, the Tennessee, or excuse me, the Jacksonville, you know, I think they're looking at a five and two. We didn't play that well to start the season. Now we've won, what, four straight games, could we compete for like the two or the three seed? And their defense isn't that great. So they're always going to be flawed in that sense. But, you know, the quarterback proved a lot tonight. Not statistically, not a bunch of touchdown throws, but just like, hey, guys, you draft

me to be a franchise quarterback, and there's more than just throwing 40-yard touchdowns. There's, on a short week when my knee's a little fucked up, and listen, we're playing a team that has a lot of talent, especially on defense, I'm going to be there for you. So you don't have to throw CJ Beatherd out. Because if you play CJ Beather tonight, Saints win. I don't care how shitty Derek played. And yeah, so weird game. I want to dive into a comment I saw from Devante Adams. Now I was at I left Fresno State and went to Philly and then Devante came in so I never was around him. Though I know a lot of people that know him really well. And I know his basically mentor slash wide receiver coach in college is now wide receiver coach with the Ravens swears by Devante Adams. And I'm a huge Devante guy. I think he's everything you'd want in a guy on your team in terms of talent, in terms of leadership, in terms of work ethic. But he had some comments. He had some comments. that kind of went viral, you know, and kind of rightfully so.

And this is after they won, and they're three and three, despite, I got a couple buddies that are Raider fans that text me after they saw these comments. They're like, the craziest part about this team is their three and three. Like, how the hell are they three and three, John? Like, well, they just played the Patriots. That helped. But here's what Devante said. He said, I'm a human being, and I have extremely high standards for myself in this offense.

I'm sure people are thinking, they won the game. Why is there an issue? I mean, you see why it's an issue. Y'all should know who I am. Know what I'm about at this point. When you're a player like me mentally, my benchmark is not wins and losses. It's greatness.

So when I get out there, I expect to be able to have the ability to put that on tape and have an influence on the game. That's my purpose for being here. I'm not here to just hang out. I came here to win and do it the right way. And this statement and comments have been taking a million different ways.

And I saw a bunch of people on Instagram, former NFL players, kind of ripping them. I've seen people defend them, James Jones, guys that have played with him. Listen, I feel confident in what I know about him and the people I know and trust what they think about this guy. I take Devante Adams any day of the week. But I don't feel sympathy for him here. He was playing for the Green Bay Packers with the guy. who was rattling off MVP's. And he chose, because the Packers were willing,

well, it got a little weird the year before, but they were willing to pay every penny that the Raiders paid to Devante Adams. And he said, I don't want your money, I want to be traded. And it's one thing to say you want to be traded. I've said before, hell, I just did it last year. I've moved. I don't, in my job, I'm not restricted where I can live.

So anyone at a certain point in time in their career, even in pro sports like I don't want to be here anymore I understand it and if he just said hey I want to be traded I get it like it's time he could sense the end was near with Aaron Rogers but he said not only I want to be traded I want to go to the Raiders

and that's where honestly I got to put up a red flag because if you were at Apple and then all of a sudden radio shack called and they said listen we can pay you a lot of money come here and you leave and you're having a lot of success at Apple, that's on you, buddy. You went to the Raiders who weren't just a perpetual loser, but have just been a consistent disaster.

But here's the other thing, despite all the craziness around the Raiders over the last 20-plus years, that you have lived through because you grew up a Raider fan. You wanted to play with your buddy Derek Carr. Okay, I get it. Here's the problem. You know what Aaron Rogers looks like. And then before the season even ends,

Derek had sent home and he's gone. And now you're playing with Jim. Jimmy Garoppolo and Brian Hoyer. And this week we can play with Brian Hoyer. Like this is the Raiders, bro. Like you left an organization that we can say, hey, the Packers don't have an owner, you know, the Packers have some

limitations, the Packers live in a small town. I get it. But the great part about being a pro athlete is like what I do, if I'm going to make money, unless I start some new profession, I can do this the rest of my life. As long as I can talk, as long as I can come up with interesting shit to say, as long as I still enjoy

watching football and golf, and just life I can podcast, right? As an athlete, your time's limited. So this limitation, I get you have aspirations to play for your hometown team, even though ironically, and he grew up in Palo Alto, but you know what I mean. It actually benefited Devante because he gets to go to Vegas, no state income tax, making a lot more money now,

much cooler place to live than Oakland, California, I promise you that. I'd rather be in Vegas too. But you chose that organization, and you chose a quarterback situation and a coach. You chose to go play for Josh McDaniels, which, let's face it, is more than a question mark. Even Raider fans listening to this right now and go, Middokoff, you're just a hater. You're always talking shit about the Raiders. Tell me what you really think about Josh McDaniels.

You're the same guy telling your buddy week after week we need to fire this guy. Where, listen, he had just been playing and dominating with LaFleur. So I don't have an issue with the comments. I get Devante being frustrated. Because when you're a great player, wide receiver, shit is out of your control. You need a wide receiver to be able to get you the ball. But you signed up for this place. It'd be one thing if you were going to a consistent winner.

You went to a place over 20 years was the laughing stock of the league. And so you're complaining like, no one should know it better than you, a guy who had a front row seat growing up rooting for this team. So it's hard for me to have sympathy from the playing stand. standpoint. Now the Miami Dolphins. What they have done this year offensively has been a joy to watch. If you just like turning

on the TV and watching them light up the scoreboard, it is really fun. Tyree Kill has gone to Miami and for two straight years put a stamp on his Canton, future Canton candidacy. This guy is an all-time great player.

He's actually, for as great as he was in Kansas City, all-time great champion, all-time great player, All time great winner, all time great playmaker in big spots. It was like, is he just kind of check it out going there for the payday? No. He went there to kick ass and take names. Enjoyable team to watch.

They're drafted running backs or signed another sweet running backs. Waddle, awesome. But I think a lot of people, because it is really fun, feel a little bit like an NBA team that's scoring a lot of points. Like, well, you don't play defense, and who have you played? So I wrote down their opponents. And I went, well, you know, they're five and one. what does it really look like? The first week, which is their best win, was the Chargers.

And that was when Brandon Staley, somehow who's an NFL head coach, literally did not cover Tyree Kill, put them one-on-one with a guy that had no clue what he's doing and currently is not on the team anymore. Then they played the Pats, who absolutely stink. Then they play the Broncos who might be worse. Then they played the bills and got curb stomped. Then they played the Giants.

also stink, and then they just beat the Panthers, who, let's face it, might win one game. So I'm not trying to diminish how fun the Miami Dolphins have been, because you can only play the people on your schedule. And unlike college, you don't make the schedule. The league does. Every team's in the NFL. You're playing a bunch of people.

They're getting paid to. But let's face it, their schedule, beside the bills, has been pretty fucking easy. And they've annihilated these guys. And everyone putting the Miami Dolphins right now, now in like the Eagles and Niners class who have obviously proven it now for a couple years, the Bills who have consistently gone to the playoffs, and obviously the Chiefs and the Bengals, other teams that have just been consistently winning, I think we need to pump the brakes a little

bit. Now, I will be the first one to admit if they play on Sunday night football and they beat the Eagles, I'll tip my hat to them and call them a real team. But if like the Bills game, they get outplayed, like I'm sorry. I'm just not going to. I'm just not going to. treat them like these same teams. On the road, I get it. It's not at home. But you played the bills on the road a divisional game. All you had to do, you're allowed to lose that game.

You got beat, you got destroyed. You got embarrassed. You got curb stopped. So now when you're playing the Eagles, who, let's face it, unlike the bills, have not exactly been peaking. They're not exactly playing their best ball. They just lost. They're quarterbacks and shambles.

Like, you don't even need to win the game. Can you just keep it close? Because I'll be honest, I'm not someone who has just anointed them. Think they're a fun team? I'll be the first, like, they're going to the playoffs. But like, are they a threat to make noise in the playoffs? Because more than likely, they're going to have to go on the road. I definitely am not picking this team in inclement weather.

But let's just see them beat a good team before we start acting like, oh, the dolphins, you know, fucking Super Bowl contender. It's pump the brakes there. This is a big week for me to see the dolphins beat a real team. And then last but not least. the bold take of the week brought to you by my friends at Guinness. This is hard.

Now I've got to tip my own horn because I've been close a couple times. I think I pick one week like the Panthers or the Giants and some upsets. And I've been off. I picked Georgia to lose to Kentucky and they destroyed Kentucky and then after the game Mark Stoop said

begged his boosters to give them more money so they could buy players that were as good as Georgia's. Pretty embarrassing to his own roster. But that's what he said. It's honestly pretty true. Last week I said that someone was going to get fired. Now, if you check the waiver wires, no coach has actually been fired, coordinator included. But Frank Reich did essentially fire himself.

Could have been Dave Tepper to no longer the offensive play caller. Gave it to his offensive coordinator, Thomas Brown, even though these offensive coordinators when the head coach is also a play caller aren't technically the offensive coordinator. But you know what I mean? So I'm going to take a W on that one. Frank demoted himself or was demoted by the owner. so someone was essentially fired they just still get to get paid

my bold take of the week this week is pretty simple I think this storm of Drake May and the draft conversation is going to get louder and louder and I think all offseason and all last year Caleb Williams

was the greatest thing since slice bread and if you watched them early on at Oklahoma as a true freshman and then last year at USC for the most part, he was incredible. This year, like, it's just, it got a little weird the last couple weeks. Now, two weeks against Arizona, he pulled that game out of his ass. If it wasn't for him, they would not have won it. But last week is the worst game he's probably ever played. Definitely the worst game he's ever played in college. And this week he's playing, Kyle Whittingham might be a top

five coach in all of college football. Last week he beat, or last year he beat Caleb Williams twice. the second game. Now Caleb was a little banged up. Absolutely destroyed him. This was the same guy that wrote fuck Utah on his fingernails. So I think, I'm not saying Utah's going to win. I talked to Stucky today, kind of talked me out of it, but I do think things are going to get weird. And Utah's defense is big time. Their defensive philosophy is big time. Their defensive line is always awesome. USC's offensive line is terrible. And I could just see him having another questionable game and the conversation just growing. I'm not trying to shit on Caleb Williams draft projection. He is a big time prospect, right? But so is Drake May.

And this conversation about one guy being anointed and then the rest of the class, like, it's already growing by the day. Because in football, the way we evaluate you, this isn't AAU or some traveling baseball team. You get evaluated on the games. And when you struggle against big-time opponents, it just makes people think and talk. Because in the NFL, you're going to struggle. It is really hard. You don't have a huge advantage week in, week out, especially when you're a highly drafted player. I know Caleb's dad wants them to go to the chiefs or the bills.

I've got news for you. That's not happening. You're going to go to a shitty organization. That's a fact. So the more you struggle against these teams like Notre Dame and Utah, it just brings Drake May into play. So my bold take of the week, I think things are going to continue to get weird this week. I don't like anything about USC outside of Caleb Williams, the coach, the philosophy, the defense, just the vibe. And I think sometimes as a player, you can kind of get, you know, entrapped by that and things start snowballing the wrong way.

So I like Utah to make things really, really weird this weekend. That was the bold take of the week brought to you by Gittis. Gather your friends, raise your glasses, and toast to a win. Guinness, Drought, Stout, imported by Diageo Beer Company, USA, New York, New York. Please drink responsibly. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying.

Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that

not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. And the next, we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told,

and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far far away, such as the biology of tauntons and wampas on the ice planet hot,

or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to blow your mind on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, back at it again with my man who's red hot. And honestly, when they jumped out to a 14-9, and lead. I was thinking, Carolina going to win this shit outright, and then the dolphins came storming back and boat race them. But it was fun. And obviously, the giant Sunday night easily could have won that game with Tyrod Taylor, but Stucky from the action network. Couldn't get

a yard. Big bets on campus. I'm glad I didn't do that money line parlay of the two teams. Though when they were up 14-0, I was in the back of my head. Got $100 might have paid like $7,000 for this two-team money money-line parlay. I was thinking of you when I, because I didn't know if you were going to, if you decided to pass or parlay or just play one of them. And then during the Panthers game, I was like, oh, wow, 14-0-th.

Then during the Giants game, I was like, man, I hope John didn't have that at the end when they couldn't get a yard multiple times. Yeah, I mean, it obviously was big time smoking mirrors with the Carolina, who was just terrible, right? I mean, the Giants legitimately have some fight in them. They have a good coaching staff.

I think that was a good example of day ball, you know, clearly have a pretty good beat on the team that they were playing. But the Panthers, I mean, is it out of the realm possibility? Now their division sucks because last week we were humbled. We talked Niners undefeated. They lost, though they usually could have won if a fucking guy can hit a field goal. Carolina definitely doesn't have more than two wins in them. So anytime that you're a two and 15 team, you're going to be. flirting because they're not going to win a game probably more than likely if they do by more than

a touchdown. They're going to be flirting with it, especially as this goes on. I would say having watched them, they got a chance to not win a game. Yeah, I mean, their division isn't great. So they'll probably get one, but they're, it's bad. The defense will probably get better. They've got to get healthier. I mean, they're basically playing without their entire secondary right now. but yeah it's a bad football team to not cover it's the it was the biggest spread um of all time for a team not to cover after jumping out to a 14 nothing lead so it takes a lot of well stuck you would have been up you would have been up plus 28 at the time you would have been cruising i mean how do you lose uh yeah and then they get a pick six

late so i had some 14 uh they got a pick six late and then gave up and then onside kick they gave up another touchdown to Mike White and didn't even push my 14. So, yeah, Panthers are on my shit list. But it's, we're on to another week of the NFL. Oh, by the way, in that, in that, I wanted to ask you about that, Shannahan. The home field advantage means a little bit more in non-conference, non-conference, non-divisional games because of the lack of familiarity with just like little nuances of stadiums. I've seen, I think, like 10, 11 games in Cleveland. when I go see the Ravens play there every year.

And there's a flag in the corner of the stadium. And they call it the Phil Dawson flag. And when it's whipping, that field goals in that stadium are wild. And you get some wild misses and the wind just pushes balls. And Shanahan starts just, hey, we're going to take. a knee and they cut to the stadium with the camera and I saw that flag

whipping and it was whipping to the way that he missed and I was like this is a mistake. I'm saying to myself they should try to get more yardage here inexperienced kicker not familiar with the stadium with just horrendous when winds pick up in Cleveland and that wind

that flag is going it's like whenever all like the really really smart fans that have been to many games there whenever there's a field goal time everyone looks at this flag in the corner of the stadium. And that thing was going 100 miles an hour towards the right. And that's right where the kick went. So, like, if that was like the Steelers or Ravens,

it would probably be familiar with that flag and knowing. And I would have, I personally would have just tried to get, you know, run it just one or two more times. And I don't want to make a mistake against a really good defense. I could also cause a negative play. But I wasn't surprised that he missed that kick that way. And that's what happens. That's why I defended them just because that defense looked like the 85 bears or the steel curtain,

and you couldn't afford, it's a different scenario, but like Mario Cristobal, what if you run it? McCaffrey's hurt, Mason fumbles, what if you try some play action pass, Purdy slips, takes a sack? Like to me, because of the defense, you were kind of on edge, and my thought was like, well, shit, if you can't, you're drafting a kid in the third round from the Big Ten, who, should have a feel for whipping wins. But I put that a little then on Kyle for, I know he, short-lived time in Cleveland, but should have a feel for the crazy wins in that place. I also think that the guy, the Moody, he had, he's done this twice.

No, he did in a preseason game, and he just did it another game. He hooked his first kick. He's like a golfer. When you hook your first drive, your next drive, you're like, no matter what, I'm not going on the left trees. You end up slicing it the other way. and the ball started out even despite the wind

basically at the pylon because he's probably afraid to just let it get pushed on the left pylon because his last kick hook I think he's got like this thing in his head and this is the knock and I support like I got no problem

if you love a kicker they had a million third round picks draft the guy but unlike other positions where it's like well he's never going to live up to the height but he can be like a rotational DB or he can be a rotational slot receiver

as a kicker he's either going to be good or bad. There's like no middle ground. And right now it's a little sketchy. And they've had, and they're just going to play in some tight games, right, whether it's the Eagles, whether it's the Cowboys Against the Lions, whoever in the playoffs, they play the Eagles in the regular season, the Seattle short week. They've been pretty dependent during their success with the kicker in Robbie Gold. And I think it's, I wouldn't say he's a major question mark, but it's definitely a conversation that everyone has when they roll him out. Like, is this guy going to miss? Yeah, no, it's a good point, too, in that, you know, I mean, Samuel and McCaffrey were hurt,

playing a defense that creates a ton of negative plays. It's also, O-line had been getting worked. And there's a wet ball, so, like, you could fumble it. And, like, so I could see it. But I disagree with, look, there's very few exceptions where these high draft kickers work out. One of the only few is Janikowski, who was actually taking. it in the first round different times. Sneaky, hot take on Seabass. Sneaky, a little overrated when you look at his numbers because he played on such a shitty team for so long

and he was a cool, famous guy. He actually, I went to a lot of the Raider games. He missed a ton of kicks. Not as good as the hype behind him. I agree. He had a big leg, but I'm saying that he at least gave you longevity. I mean, look, Cade York, the kid for the Browns, so they had a cut, was a third-round draft book two years ago.

There are countless, countless examples. Aguayo? Yeah, the best, but like you just mentioned gold, undrafted. Best kicker in NFL history, Justin Tucker, undrafted. Like the best kickers have been just undrafted fines. So, yeah, it'll be interesting to watch Moody going forward. And if he, yeah, because it seems like he's like over-correcting a little bit, which you don't want your kicker to be thinking about.

Yeah, it's a little bit like. drafting a high quarterback, the pressure, everyone's like, well, you drafted this kicker really high, like Daniel Carlson, who's really good for the Raiders, cut by another team, right? So he wasn't even your pick. That happens all the time with kickers. Maybe they're drafting the fifth or six round, but they go on to have success for another team. So there's like zero pressure when they go somewhere else. And I think this moody thing, a huge part of his story was like, you drafted this guy on the second day, right? It's not legend in Michigan, hit all these kids. No one even cares about that now.

So I'm with you. There's, I'm not disputing. There's a lot of risk. But like the other dude they drafted in the third round, Latu, this tight end from Alabama's on injured reserve.

So they're like, there's a crapshoot. But like you said, the history of drafting kickers, just in general, like even a fifth round pick, the Minnesota Vikings took Carlson in the fifth round,

not even on their team, right? So it's like he's having success somewhere else. So yeah, it could get dicey. Luckily Robbie Gold's just playing, you know, playing golf in Chicago.

his phone will ring, I promise you that, if he misses another kick. That's what the Browns. The Browns went out and they signed just a veteran Hopkins, and he's been good for them. And yeah, before we get to the slate, whenever Janukowski's brought up, I have to bring up this clip. Whoever, if you're listening, I want to chuckle, just go to YouTube, type in Janikowski, Lane Kippen.

One week before Dave has fired, Lane Kippen, he trotted Janikowski out at the end of the first half in a game to attempt outdoors to attempt a 76-yard field goal against the wind. One of the funniest plays, the announcers are like flabbergasted. The kick came up like 20-yard short. But Lane Kiff had attempted a 76-yard field goal into the wind with Janikowski in an NFL game

one week before you got fired. Well, you know, you're a Philly guy. You probably remember when Acres, we played like the Packers, the year they won the Super Bowl and missed a bunch of kicks, didn't resign him. goes to the Niners. It has like a career year with Harbaugh, and they end up going to the NFC championship

and losing to the Eli team. We drafted this dude named Henry from Nebraska, I think in the fourth round. And by the middle of training camp, the dude couldn't get it even close to the uprights and he was gone within like a year. So it's just, it shows you. Like a lot of positions beside quarterback, you can just mix them in, right? So even if they're not ready to, at kicker, you have, there's not like two kickers on your team.

The guy's either good or he's not. So it's the pressure on that position, while most humans make fun of it, all special teams, it is uniquely like you're pretty dependent on the guy, right? I mean, you need the guy to fucking make kicks. Let's dive into college. Listen, people, like when you hear the casual person like in the Northeast, they don't really care about college football, New York, right, Washington, Boston. I think there's probably some validity and truth to that, but having lived in Philly,

Penn State's a pretty big deal. Obviously, a lot of people that live in that general area, either grow up Penn State fan, go to school there. I was there when the Sandusky thing happened, and that's all anyone talked about. It just because it resonated with a lot of people, Joe Paw, the program. So I, you know, I've always kind of liked the Big Ten beside the Pac-12,

followed it closely my whole life, just they were always on TV when I was a kid. I hate Ohio State for whatever reason. I don't really know why. I just do not like them. Like I don't really like Texas football either. But I legitimately don't like Ohio State. And not a big fan of Ryan Day.

And I am behind what Harbaugh said landing on third base, because I do think there's some validity to that comment. Like Urban Meyer handed him a loaded program, which always kind of runs itself. And let's face it, the last couple years, everyone always points to his record. Well, he's got beat by Michigan twice. And this year, I think there is a ton of pressure on him, obviously, this week.

And everyone, what's Michigan right now, the look ahead line in that game? by a touchdown or it depends if they win this game. Yeah, it'll depend on this, but Michigan at home, probably as of right now, it probably be like, yeah, four and a half five right now. But if they lose this game, you can get up to a touchdown. And Michigan keeps rolling. So he's a clear underdog against Michigan.

He's favored in this game, but I don't love James Franklin. It's not like I think he's like some historic coach, but he has built a really good team. And I'll give James this. James is an offensive guy, former wide receiver coach, watch their defense. He really cares about that side of the ball. You watch Lincoln Riley offensive guy

doesn't give a shit. I think Ryan Day is kind of obsessed with the quarterback and the wide receivers, which has served him well. But I think that pro, when I think Ohio State, and you've been watching this conference probably more closely than me over your life,

feels like Ohio State and the peak of their powers was always dominant on defense. Right? And now I watch them the last couple years. Like that was their downfall against Michigan. So I'm going Penn State in this game. Yeah.

I like Penn State as well. I will give credit. I'm not a Ryan Day guy either. James Franklin has taken money for me in the past with his antics at the end of games when he covers with fake kneel downs earlier this year with the backup quarterback up like 30. But anyway, I will give, I'll give credit to, and I agree with some of the things you said and that Harba alluded to with Day. And his play calling has been kind of questionable at times.

I will give credit to both coaches in that they, went out in recent seasons and hired two of the most respected defensive coordinators in the country. Jim Knowles, who came from Oklahoma State and Mani Diaz, who I think got a pretty bad rep for his head, but he just wasn't a great head coach, but always a great defensive coordinator. So both these scenes have really solid defensive coordinator.

Ohio State's defense had fallen off a cliff a lot better this year. They might be down their star corner, Denzel Burke, worth monitoring. But their defense is a lot better this year. Penn State's defense is dominant. But I like Penn State to win this game. I think it's going to be close, low scoring. I like the under. I'm not a McCord guy.

Aller is not throwing the ball down the field. Both teams have some offensive line issues. I think the defensive lines on each side are going to win in the trenches. The biggest question for me and the biggest unknown is the Penn State offense. So, like, we don't know. We just don't know. They haven't thrown the ball down field at all. Like I'm talking nine times on third of all.

20 yards downfield the entire season. Now, they haven't had to, right? Their defense, they played nobody. I mean, you played Delaware, UMass. I mean, they played Northwestern. They played absolutely nobody. Illinois is the best team that they played. So they haven't had to do it. They've gotten short fields. They've turned teams over. So the question is, the question, the question coming into with this Penn State team, because they are in the discussion of, all right, who were the teams? Because this year, it's seven to ten teams. Who are the teams that could win the national title? Penn States in that discussion. But the question with them is they have the defense and they have the

talent at quarterback. We haven't seen yet. But the wide receiver room and the quarterback, you got to prove it. You're going to have to score points. You're going to have to eventually, grow. So this is what we'll find out about Penn State because there's just no, there's no data point to know as of right now. And an argument is that Penn State just wasn't, they didn't have to. So why show much, right? the new quarterback, new receiving room. So, you know, there's, that's the big question coming into here. Can Aller in this offense? They're going to have to hit some shots because you're not going to just completely shut down

this Ohio State offense, although Notre Dame basically did for an entire game. But Marvin Harrison Jr. is going to probably have two touchdowns somehow. So you're going to have to do something in the passing game, and that's what we'll learn about Penn State. But, yeah, I think Penn State finds a way to win this game, low scoring like the under. One thing that would be interesting if Penn State does pull off the upset is they do get Michigan at home. Yeah.

And we know that place, it's already slated, looking at the schedule for a morning kickoff, but who knows, maybe they could change that. If they could pull that off at night, a white out,

that place would be going bananas. Yeah, and then, yeah, it'd be like, basic, Pennsylvania Beach, Ohio State, probably Penn State

minus one in that game, pick. Because it's not like Michigan's playing anybody. Yeah, Mitch, we won't get anything more from Michigan. Michigan will just keep blowing out bad teams until that game.

Okay, last week, and I've been doing this, tried to pick a team in the NFL who I thought was just better than the other team, and it worked until I went with the Saints who were recording this before Thursday night game. I would never bet on the Saints. Like, Derrickard, get out, like that. Give me a break.

Last week was an embarrassment. But there was a game. I couldn't really find a game that I loved this week on the NFL slate to handle that. I was thinking maybe Seattle at home hosting Arizona, but Arizona's feisty. So it's like I stayed away. One game I love, now that's a little different philosophy

because both these two teams, in theory, are good. But Utah beat this team twice last year. And defensively, Utah is really good. USC's got a lot of issues. And Utah's offense, because they're starting quarterback and even their backup quarterback got hurt in a tackle scrimmage turned August. So their quarterback situation has been a little bit of a mess.

But defensively, Kyle Whittingham is one of the best coaches in the country. and the moment Lincoln Riley signed for $120 million, he circled that game. Every time they play, it means a lot to them. Obviously, last year, the fuck Utah and Caleb's fingernails. I just think Utah is going to be able to physically play with them. Now, do I know if they win the game? I don't know. I don't know if I'd take a money line, but getting seven points against a team that he's going

to be very comfortable playing. He's always played USC well since they've gone into the Pac-12. They've upset him several times early on. looking back, it probably wasn't even as crazy of an upset as we thought. But now that they're kind of viewed as equals, I just like Utah. I actually love Utah Plus 7. I slightly disagree. I played USC early in the week.

This line has gone up. There's a couple things. I mean, Utah's offense is dreadful. I mean, it is bad. They have no quarterback without Cam Rising. Now they're down their top two tight ends. I mean, Cuthy hasn't played. I think he's going to redshirt along with Rising.

They just lost Thomas Yasmin, their neck starting tight end. they have no receivers. They can't throw the ball at all. They moved a defensive player last week to running back. But he did go for a buck 40, didn't they? Yeah, he played well. I said he was playing on both sides. They're, I just, it's hard for me to see them.

And look, they haven't played, they played five power five teams, but they played like all freshman quarterbacks getting their first start, including last week. They played Graham Merck's in his first game. Even when they went down to Baylor, they played their backup quarterback in Baylor was bad this year. So they haven't really played an offense with a pulse yet. Their star safety and defensive leader, Cole Bishop, is out for a bullshit targeting call that he got in the fourth quarter last week.

He's going to be out in the first half. That's big because if they get behind in this game, it's trouble because they're just not going to be able to keep up. And then the way that they can look, they can, hey, we're going to be physical and we're going to, and they wheel out physical USC. But USC could just load the box here. They don't have to worry about a thing on the outside. And that's what USC did last week.

and Notre Dame didn't really do anything on offense. USC and Gail Williams just turned it over five times. Notre Dame only had 250 yards. The only average like four yards for carry. But I think USC comes out here with their hair on fire after last week, trying to avenge those two losses last year. Look, I think Wittingham is a better coach. They have a better staff.

They're more physical. But I just think with the quarterback situation, it's tough to see them keeping up. But I don't blame me for wanting to take the seven now that it's out of touchdown. Yeah, I mean, if it was to say, USC gets to 28 points. You know, can Utah get to that kind of three touchdown mark? It could be difficult, but USC's defense is not good either.

And to me, that O'Line, Notre Dame shoved him around. Obviously, that's how Utah historically just wins, right? Their defensive front is just full of NFL guys. They'd have to ugly the game. I'm not expecting three turnovers from Caleb, but it just gets ugly. Now, maybe there's, I think you're going to learn a lot about USC, right, getting your ass kicked and then playing a team who just humbled you last year. So you, in theory, should get USC's best.

And Lincoln Riley, you pay $120 million for this, like how you bounce back when you lose. So it's a big game, too, for Caleb. Like, there is, I promise you, there's growing Drake May buzz, especially now Tess Walker's back. Like, it's not, obviously he's the number one prospect, but this gap, it's not like Trevor Lawrence to Zach Wilson. It ain't Grand Canyon size. I promise you that in executives.

Okay, let's dive into some of your picks. Pat's, this Mac Jones thing is getting worse by the week. Buffalo's getting weird, though. Obviously, last week, you chalking that up to just playing Brian Dayball, Sunday night, getting a Giants Kitchen Sink game, or the injuries, just some weird stuff going on, divisional game. You know, this feels like if you just ask the casual fan,

oh, bills are going to kill them. But, you know, you never at home. My question is this. when does the New England crowd start to be like kind of shitty? You know, they've been for 20 plus years rocking and rolling there. Are they going to get the same kind of buzz at kickoff that they're used to? I wonder if it kind of starts to dwindle. I don't even blame.

If I was a season ticket holder, I'd be like, I'd be giving my tickets away right now. Yeah, this is probably the last game that you'll see a good crowd. I mean, even if they against the Saints, they have the crowd left before half. I was talking to the season ticket holder there. This is a landscape because it's the bills. Yeah, he went, but he left it. He left as well. It's the bills.

People are still like just enthralled about what's going on. They want to come and boo still. Like it's, but eventually they're going to stop going. The pads are a mess right now. Hopefully the offensive line gets a lot better. I mean, the offense line they've been trotting out there.

If you look at like past block grading, some of the guys because of their injuries are like among the 10 worst, three or four of their guys. Among the 10 worst out of 200 offensive linemen. So hopefully you get like, grief and strange back. But the bills, I mean, look, I just think this is, it sucks by vetting the paths. They're awful. And even on special teams, like in every phase, Belchicks definitely has no speed on his fastball and no Tom Brady to save him. But this line is just too high in a divisional game.

I mean, two, a couple weeks ago, the, you know, the bills were eight and a half point favorites at home in a great spot after loss against the Raiders. And now they're eight and a half points. of eight and a point favorite on the road against the Patriots. And in that game against the Raiders, they were fully healthy. They've now basically lost three all-pro caliber, you know, three guys playing at an all-pro level in the defense. Matt Milano's leader of their defense. You're falling off to a rookie.

Dayquan Jones playing at an all-pro level defensive tackle. You don't know like Tim Settle. Then you're going from, you know, Trey White, your lockdown corner, to Kyrie Elam, who's been a bust in the NFL. Those are massive drop-offs. So they already had trouble stopping the run. Now they're going to have coverage. issues. McDermott's going to have to figure that out. The offense also isn't in rhythm the past

two weeks. You know, you saw that against Jacksonville. You saw it last week against Giants. Two bad defenses. And Josh Allen's dealing with a sore shoulder, so I'm not sure if he's just off in that sense. So, you know, the Patriots defense is still respectable at least. This is a team that still at least has three, one possession loss. Two of them came at home to Philly in Miami. So they at least played those teams tough. I just think this line is now too high. Two weeks ago, the Patriots are two-and-half-point favorites at home against the Saints. Now they're catching eight and a half. The Saints are bad, but they're not 10 points worse than the bills on a neutral field. So I think this is just a low point. You have to do this in the NFL. This is a low point.

You did it last week. You did it last week. You did it last week. Just try to catch the falling knife. So I'm buying low on the pets. And this, team's not like they're playing well and I don't think the market is fully adjusted to all the defensive injuries it's not just the losing three and they have other injuries like russo's still hard shack lawson is still dealing with an injury and oliver's dealing with an injury they have a couple corners that are dinged up so like they're kind of a mess right now and their offense isn't in any type of rhythm the only thing the patrons is doing are doing really well this year they're taking away number one receivers and that's always been a valchick staple take away your best weapon they

rank number one in the NFL against opposing number one receivers you know even after they lost Christian Gonzalez, they took away Devante Adams, Chris Olavay. So they could take away here, Diggs, focus on him. And then the rest of the bill's offense, it's mad right now. And the pets, for how bad they've been, they've been extremely unlucky with fumbles, fourth downs, field goals. So like all these little things that are making it. Pick sixes.

They're making it look way worse than it actually. It is bad. But so they're due for a couple of bounces here. their divisional game, probably their last hurrah before this gets really ugly. So I think it's too many points. I'm holding my nose here. It's awful, I know. I feel like Bill would have a big market if he, you know, he's over kind of being the head honcho, gets fired.

I'm just going to be a defensive coordinator. It feels like a lot of teams would line up for that and fire their defensive coordinator to hire old Belichick. Okay, before we dive into your team, this is a pretty interesting game. Obviously, Sean McVeigh, his wife could have a base. baby any day and that's you know he would I don't think he's officially announced he would miss the game I know he said yesterday under no circumstance my son knows better he's not coming on Sunday but that would be a little bit of a curveball given that he's the play caller if all of a sudden

she went into labor Sunday morning or something so you got to keep an eye on that the Steelers every time I look on social media it's a penguins game it's somewhere their fans are channing fire Matt Canada it's not like they improved over their buying week. So, you know, the Rams, last week was actually pretty impressive. I watched a decent amount of that game. They beat the shit out of Arizona. Probably Arizona's worst effort of the year so far. In L.A., a lot of pit, there will be a lot of Steelers fans there. That's for damn sure. This team travels well. I've been to, I've been seeing them play the Niners and the Raiders in the Bay Area, and they always filled that stadium. But are the Steelers, like, if you don't get a T.J. Watt

sack fumble or a pick six, how do they squit? Yeah, I like the Rams here, minus three. This is also like, it's not a classic Tomlin spot. I know he's a dog, but I consider a dog spots over a field goal. They're playing a team that's 500. And for what it's worth, just Tomlin's 34, 41 and one against a spread on the road against teams with a non-winning record, fifth least profitable coach of all time in that spot. One in five after a by week playing a on the road against a team with a non-winning record.

And like this is, they're coming off of a big win. this isn't like your hype Tomlin gets you up spot at home. Once they lose this game at home against the Jags next week, that's when he gets them up and then Watton, they inject Watt and Highsmith with something, and then they score two touchdowns. Because honestly, without the Ravens dropping a bunch of passes, and then Watt and Hysmith going bananas against Cleveland and Baltimore,

this team is one win over the Raiders. That's it. This is a one-win team. The offense is horrendous. They're dead last than success rate in NFL, like worse than Zach Wilson and the D. jets. Like, it's bad. They have one play. They just throw it the George

Pickens down the sidelines. That's their entire offense. So both defenses, like the defense, each defense, you would think, like the Steelers, yeah, they have great edge rushers. The Rams have Aaron Donald. Both seconders are very questionable. Outside of Mink of Fitzpatrick for the Steelers, very

questionable on the outside of corner. Ramps can take advantage of that. I think that's a difference in this game. I think it's that simple, is that I don't trust the Steelers' offense. to score and both defenses are great now to round league average remorse done a great job of this ram steve with the lack of talent that he has and they've played one of the toughest schedules of opposing offenses but the you know i just trust stafford and then with you know cutback nicua at well to make more

plays in the passing game against the steelers defense that's been bad against the past they also you can also run in them a bit with cam hayward out in the middle their run defense falls off a cliff without him and I just don't trust that Steelers offense to do enough and this isn't your classic Tomlin spot where you just throw out the stats and be like he's going to fire them up find a way you know they're sitting three and two in first place

coming off of a win doesn't matter it's off a by they're playing a non-conference opponent um so yeah I just trust the Rams offense much more here than the Steelers I think the Rams win this game I mean they were already talking about them like that

but I mean they feel feel like they're on a fast track to be that nine and eight kind of wild card team, which would be a very, very impressive year for McVeigh. Because guys like me, and I don't think I was alone, thought they were really going to suck. And they haven't not only not sucked. They've been really explosive offensively, like you said. I mean, they're passing game now that Cooper Cups back. Nakua's good.

I saw they got a bunch of running back injuries, but unlike his, you know, mentor Shanahan, McVeigh is like, he'll dump the run game at a moment's notice. He could throw it. He's like, he's got a little Andy Reed. I mean, throw it 50 times a game. Yeah, they sacrifice their future for the Super Bowl, which fans would be happy with, even though, you know, it was a drop. It worked. It worked.

It worked. Even, you know, Tart catches a pick. It doesn't. But they have to, look, Stafford's now healthy. And they have such little draft capital moving forward in order for them not to fall off a cliff. Like Aaron Donald's not could be around forever, Stafford's like be around forever. They have to hit on like every draft pick and like hitting on guys. like, you know, Nakuwa, Steve Avila, looks like he's going to be a pretty good guard.

I think that was their first pick in like the third round this year. So they got a hit on their draft picks because they don't have many going forward and you're going to lose Stafford and you're going to lose Donald eventually. So that's something to watch too. Well, in a weird way, because the bidding for McCaffrey last year was the Rams and the Niners. And the Niners just trump them because it was like a second and third. The Niners had a fourth.

They didn't. I think the Rams got lucky that they didn't get that guy. because he's more suited for Kyle, one, and two, the Rams, to be this competitive, kind of needed some of those picks to insert some of the players. So it definitely, you know, for missing out of McCaffrey, it's still worked out for the Rams. I agree. I hope them compete this year, and then next year, add some more pieces. Hell, they could be even better.

It feels like, and listen, you probably have the stats off your head. I feel like the Chargers play the Chiefs really, really well. And the Chargers, going back to Philip Rivers, obviously with Justin Herbert, remember the game that was his first start against the Chiefs when Tyrod Taylor got poked with the needle when he had to start, you know, they told him 10 minutes before the game or whatever to last year on Thursday night football,

the opening Amazon game. They just play well. And Brian Astely is holding on for dear life here, but when he plays the Chief, so getting five and a half, obviously the Chief's offense is not what it has been a lot of times when they've played them well. The defense is a lot better.

But I don't see how you don't, take from just an objective, take the Chargers here, getting, you know, well over a field goal. Yeah, I like the Chargers here. It's not a great spot on paper, like Chiefs extended rest, Chargers short week going on the road. But Andy Reid's only 10, you know, in spite of the narrative out there, he's only 10 and 13 against the spread with extended rest. And teams on a short week, for whatever reason, going up against teams with extended rest, 45 and 35 against the spread over the past 20 years, 56%.

maybe the market just over-adjust that narrative a bit. But yeah, you mentioned how close these teams play. There's six meetings between Herbert and Mahomes. Herbert is five and one against the spread. Should be six and no. The only game he didn't cover is they were catching three and a half. They lost the coin toss, and the chief scored a touchdown won by six in overtime. Chargers won two times in Kansas City.

There are other losses by three, three, three, and six in overtime. They haven't been trailing by more than three at the end of regulation in any of the six meetings against the chiefs. And these are just like from the most basic handicap, the chiefs fail to win by margin against, they just struggle to do it as favorites of over a field goal. And the Chargers always play close games. I mean, the Chargers, 20 of their past 25 games have been decided by one possession. It's just the Chargers, going back to Rivers even. The Charters had the ball down three with a minute 30 to go. But just what the Chargers do, that's how it's always going to be.

Rinse Wash, repeat. And Rivers is panicking, trying to get everything. That's just how the Charters are going to be in perpetuity. Mahomes is a... That overtime game you mentioned too, remember. I think the Chargers were kicking their ass, and Tyreek Hill made some incredible plays, right? The Charters dropped about three picks in that game,

and then and then Hill made a crazy playoff of fumble that he scored on and then Herbert threw a Kelsey of the game winner I think in overtime in overtime.

Herbert threw a 99-yard pick six Charter should have won that game yeah but yeah the Kansas City offenses isn't the same right now. There's offensive line issues wide receiver room

still trying to work itself out I mean Mahomes has nine turnover worthy plays and nine big time throws this year one-to-one ratio last year 38 pick

big time throws 18 turn over two to one last year's at one to one this year got in away with a couple balls that should have been picked he's just he's trying to make some things happen because there's the wide receiver room and this offense just isn't clicking so yeah and I always think that the chargers I tend to think this and the numbers back me up is the chargers have value on the road because they have no home field advantage so like they at home I never like them uh you know at home it's usually a road game and then they go out in the road and it's just like who cares they're used to road games and but they're still getting priced as they're going on the road.

For what it's worth, Herbert is 10 and 4 against the spread as a road dog, including 7 and 1 when he's getting over a field goal. So, yeah, I think that this is a game that's going to come down to the wire. And also, if you're down like 10 late, Herbert will, you know, he can go down and get you a backdoor touchdown against the Chiefs. And then if the Chiefs are up, the reason the Chiefs have struggled, you know, Mahomes is only 18. and 27 against the spread as a favorite of over a field goal over the past three seasons.

They know how to run out the clock at the end. So if they're up three, you know, they can squeeze out the final six minutes of the game without scoring, right? You'll see a lot of teams score. They'll say, no, I'm not even going to give you a chance to get the ball back. They'll hit the ground. Yeah, they'll go to Kelsey on these little six-yard throws and they just move the sticks and then just strangle the game away. And that's why another reason why they just don't end up covering sometimes is, you know, a favorite in this range. So, yeah, I think it's, you got to go up the charges here.

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Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football,

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on TikTok. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tontons and wampas on the ice planet hot,

or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to blow your mind on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever. you get your podcasts. Okay, let's go game of the week. I had a few Saturday night, kind of come to, turn on TV, Tanny Hills limping off the field.

Malik Willis looked like me or you out there. You guys cruised to a victory. I saw Harbaugh. I didn't quite realize this, though, it makes sense because I saw Lamar talking how people recognizing them over there in the middle of the week. They went really early across the pond, so they spent basically all week over there,

get a nice win or four and two. Playing the lions who are definitely not sneaking up on anybody. It's not like the Ravens are looking at this team like the normal lions. I mean, this is going to be, I mean, I think it's the best game on the slate. Obviously, the Ravens at home. You know, I'm a big lion's backer. This would make me, this is the type week that would make me a little nervous. And then the Ravens win this game.

You get the Cardinals the following week. Then you get the Seahawks at home. All of a sudden, you'll look. up and the Ravens are going to be like seven and two. So this is a fantastic game. I think I know where you're going to go. It's going to be hard to not take the Ravens in this spot. Though I think the Lions have been pretty battle tested.

I'm not expecting them to, you know, kind of roll over. I believe they're a good team. But I'd be a little stunned if they kind of got worked by double-digit points. I expect this to be a tight game. Yeah, I like the Ravens here. I'm a Ravens fan. but I will tell you on the show this year, I've faded the Ravens three times

and this is the first time that I'm betting them. So I'm far from a homer when it comes to betting. But this is the cell high spot on the Lions, right? The team that everyone is now in love with, even if you know nothing about betting, you could do okay in the NFL just by listening. And as soon as you hear all the hype, okay, like even us in the show,

are San Fran going to go undefeat it? What happens? They lose the PJ Walker. three weeks ago, the Dolphins win by 50, 50 points in the game score 70, they get crushed the next week. And by the way, the team that crushed them and put up 50 lost to the Jags the next week. Like, you're just never as good as you appear. And I think this is the peak of the market on the lines, who have won four straight and have been impressive. But let's slow the brakes a little bit.

They beat Bryce Young, Desmond Ritter, Jordan Love, and Baker Mayfield last year, who vomited all over himself. If you watched that game, he missed three wide open touchdowns, including a 90-yard touchdown to Mike Evans. There was no one within 40 yards of them. The lions, and look, the lions played, when they played the Panthers who were awful, the Panthers were without all four starters in the secondary. We know Desmond Ritter is terrible. Jordan Love one, the Packers, half their offense was out too. So, like, yes, the Lions are good. They're a real sleeper in the NFC, but let's slow the roll. The last, time they played an offense with a pulse was the Seahawks who put up 40 in a win in Detroit.

Now, there was a pick six there, but they moved the ball up and down the field the entire game. And the reason for this Detroit, why I'm looking to sell Detroit now is I like their offense, although Jared Gough outdoors, not great his whole career. His small hands doesn't have the strongest arm. He struggled outdoors in his career. It's going to be windy conditions in Baltimore, which also is going to affect special teams. Talked about kickers already. Circleed all back.

Huge special teams advantage for Baltimore. in this game, huge kicking advantage for Justin Tucker against Riley Patterson. But I'm looking to sell this Detroit defense. The run defense has improved, and I believe in it. Ali McNeil is a great run stuffer. He's taking up blocks. They've got a good rotation. Bugs and Jones in the middle there, too.

You obviously have Hutchinson getting pressure off the edge. And the linebackers, even, they moved Anzolone to Will. He's playing well against the run there. Jack Campbell, the rookie, he's playing well against the run, but they're both struggling in coverage, and their secondary is terrible. I mean, look, their safeties are terrible. Their outside corners are, you know, Jacobs and Sutton. This is a bad secondary.

And they've had injuries, to be fair. We'll see if Branch comes back because Will Harris is one of the worst slots in the NFL. They need him to at least come back. But this secondary is bad. They've just played, you know, nobody over the past four weeks. And Baker Mayfield was missing. I mean, he said it up at the game. He said, I suck.

There were wide open guys all over the field. So there's two things that I think the Ravens, We'll do here. I think, and their offense has been so close the past couple weeks. Now, they're finally healthy. Two weeks ago was just all those drops against Pittsburgh, the Tomlin voodoo magic in the Tomlin spot. And then last week was just Red Zone futility. They were moving the ball up and down the field. I think there's going to be opportunities. And Lamar in the wind, he's much more adept in these weather conditions than moving the ball. And then the lines with their linebackers are, have been good against the run, filling gaps, but they're slower. they're going to have trouble keeping up with Lamar Jackson, they're going to have trouble defending Mark Andrews.

And then the way that Detroit plays defense, they don't blitz at all. They're one of the lowest blitz rate teams in the NFL. That's not great against Lamar. Lamar, when not blitz this year, top two or three quarterback. I think he's third in quarterback rating, second adjusted completion rate, you know, third in yards per attempt. When he's blitz, he's like 26, 28, 29th. he has not figured out the blitzing this new scheme. The lions aren't blitzing.

Maybe they will here, but it's not what they've done all year. Some of the coverage they play on the back end are some of the coverages that Lamar thrives with. You know, golf who struggles with certain coverages. That's all the Ravens do. So it's a good matchup schematically and coverage-wise. And I think that this lion's defense is just right for the picking. And then there's just all those, you know, the wind, the weather, the special teams. And I think the Ravens' offense kind of explodes here.

they're kind of overdue. The Detroit defense is kind of overdue to get picked off here. And that secondary, I think, is going to be their downfall. I think the Ravens defense is also a little bit over it. They played nothing with backup quarterbacks all year. But I still trust that unit overall a bit more than... Is Marlon Humphrey any good? Yeah.

I think he's now starting to finally get to fully healthy. But I think he's when he's 100%. He's one of the better corners in the NFL. I mean, he also can play, like they can put him in the slot. They can put him outside. He's very versatile. I mean, he can play in the run. He can guard different types of receivers.

He's just got to be healthy. Now, he's reached, he's got like a year or two left before you'll see him fall off a cliff as a lot of these corners do. But, yeah, this is a Ravenstein that dealt with so many injuries earlier on in the season. They're finally fully healthy. I think they're going to exploit this Detroit secondary. and I think this is a great spot to back the Ravens and sell high on the lines. We're good.

They're going to be a real contender, but a lot of this, I think this line should be over a field goal. I mean, over the last four weeks, I explained who they played. It's been nobody's a bunch of clown car quarterbacks and Mayfield just missing wide receivers all over the field.

So I think the Ravens get it done, happy to lay a field goal here. One thing looking at their schedule is they've already played all three division teams on the road. So the three remaining divisional games are all at home. And they get the NFC West. And to me, they're going to be favored in three of the four games. And they've got to go to San Francisco. But they get the Rams at home and they get Seattle at home. And also the other tough game on the schedule is the Dolphins. And they get them at home as well. So in terms of home in a way, it breaks really well for them down the stretch. You know, you win this game.

Like I said, the next two games are at. Arizona, that's a win. And then playing Seattle at home, they'll be favoring that. I mean, they have a very, very good chance to be seven and two going into that tough little stretch of, you know, playing the Browns and the Bengals, but they've already beat the Browns. So, you know, that defense, Lamar is really the only guy. I mean, I saw some numbers of every quarterback they've played.

They've punked them. Lamar in that first half just destroyed them. I mean, he was, that was an MVP half. Yeah. Yeah, they put up 28 on a Browns team that basically no one. can get a first down on. And what was it, 21, 3 at half, and it was over? Yeah, they could have put up more if they weren't playing, you know, Dorian Thompson-Rompson.

But, yeah, I mean, to put a bow on it, Lamar Jackson, kind of like Mahomes in a way, his against the spread splits. Like, the Ravens are smarter running the clock out. You don't really like to play them in the favor role. Lamar's 18 and 4 against the spread as an underdog or favorite of three or less, covered by eight points per game, 12 and 1 against teams with a winning record. 10 and 0 when the spread is between a field goal and a field goal. In comparison, he's just 18 and 27 as a favorite of more than a field goal. The same exact number is Mahomes over the past three years.

And Mahomes, I think, is like 17 and 4 against the spread as an underdog or favorite of three or less. Like basically when you just need them to win the game or they're an underdog, they're almost an auto bet. And yeah, I think that this is a good buy spot on the Ravens. People forget about that Brownsian and what they did that Browns State. Oh, I know. I watched it. Yeah, but I'm saying the past two weeks. And they all think they should have put up, they should have put up 28 against Pittsburgh.

They had like three dropped touchdowns. And then last week they should have put up about 40 against Tennessee. I mean, they kicked five red zone field goals. I think a lot of that they were just conservative. They were just running it in the rest of knowing that like, especially once Tanna Hill got hurt, we have this game in the bag. I think you'll see them be more aggressive here. Andrews and Ma Ma Maura's legs are a matchup nightmare for this Detroit defense. I think that's going to be the difference.

And they're going to hit a couple deep shots that have been coming against this Detroit team that's been having a lot of busted coverages and getting away with it against bad quarterbacks. One big advantage the Chiefs have had the last couple of years in the AFC playoffs is they never have to go on the road. And they've played in some weird games, but having that game at home has been a huge advantage. If someone, and obviously the Ravens would be a team, can somehow have the home field advantage, that could be a huge swing. because you think about some of the weird games Kansas City has played in.

Was it the Browns a couple years ago? Last year the Jags game, obviously Mahomes had been injured. They lost to the Bengals, right? But that was, Mahomes might have a concussion or whatever. But for the most part, just never having to leave

has been an underrated advantage of the chief's kind of little mini-dignacy they've been on. And it'll be interesting if obviously the chiefs keep winning. It's going to be, they're just going to have a fantastic record, which they will.

but like can the Ravens or someone else go 14 and 3 and push them for that number one seat? Probably not. There's a couple rules in the NFL. One of them we talked about the charters after being a close game down by three late. The other is the Ravens. Look, I've seasoned tickets for 13 years.

The Ravens aren't allowed to have home playoff games. One of the benefits have these tickets you get home play out games, the Ravens never happened. The one, two Super Bowls is wildcard teams that went on the road the entire time. I mean, they went on the road and beat Manning Brady when they beat your 49ers with Flacko going out. They beat Luck, Brady,

Manning on the road and then beat the 49ers Super Bowl. 2001, historic team, the 2000 team with the historic defense, wildcard team. Went on the road. They were playing Gannon. Who won that division? Tennessee, yeah. That was the division back then.

They went on the road and beat Tennessee. That was an awesome game. Ray Lewis stripped Eddie George and ran it back. So the only time, as he said it ordered, that they had a buy and a home game was the most depressing game of Urban New in my entire life. 2007, McNair was the coordinator. McNair was the quarterback.

They went 14 and 2, 15 and 1, somewhere around, or 13 and 3. Buy home game, first time ever playing the Colts, who Indianapolis left Baltimore, so all the old heads never had a stadium be louder and more electric before a game. Ravens had a buy hosting Peyton Manning. I think Ed Reed at two or three picks of Peyton Manning, no touchdown scored in the game, lose 15 to 6. And that was it.

And that's like the only home game that the Ravens ever got, that meaningful one. Was Vinatry, the Colts kicker that year? Yep, Vinotary versus Stover. Ended 15-6 on seven field goals in the game, no touchdowns, and that was it for the Ravens. So, yeah, the Ravens that they win, whenever they won a Super Bowl like every 10 to 12 years, and they got to go on the road as a wild-car team. But hopefully.

Was that the year Peyton Manning won the Super Bowl? Did they play the Patriots the next week and come back? Yep. Yep. What a year? I remember watching that game. 15, they kicked five field goals. Yeah, that was,

yeah, it was the most depressing. I always get the years confused if it was like, no, that was 2000. That might have been the previous year. That was the previous year. That was 26 season, 2006 season going into 2000. So the game was in 2007. Yeah, but it was the 06 season, yeah. And then the next year, the Patriots get Randy Moss and everything,

the 07 team. Correct. Yeah. So I think the Colts won it their 06 season in like February of 07. Yeah. They beat the Ravens 156 and went on the win the Super Bowl. So yeah, it wasn't a good run for my season ticket to having home playoff games. But what are you going to do?

Well, hell, you might get Super Bowl this year. The Ravens keep playing like their plan. Stucky, have a good weekend. And let's roll, baby. Absolutely. Good luck. Cheers. Volume.

Another podcast from some SNL. late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardway

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