The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - TNF Reaction, Goff becoming a real player, are the Bills for real

Episode Date: September 29, 2023

John recaps the Lions 34-20 win over the Packers. John explains the reasons the Lions could pull off an upset in the playoffs and why Jordan Love's inconsistencies could force the Packers to move on from him in the offseason. Finally, John discusses Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills vs. Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins, Lamar Jackson's return to MVP form, and whether Sean Payton's Denver Broncos worst days are still ahead vs. Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears. Stuckey from the Action Network joins John to talk about some of the best bets of the weekend. Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest. Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Just watched Dan Campbell and the Lions get a convincing win against the Packers. Now they are in the driver's seat. So we will dive into some things with the Lions, Dan Campbell, Meathead or Good Coach, Jared Gough, resurrecting his career, the Packers. Jordan loves a fascinating one. I mean, he could make a throw that you're like, damn. And he can also make plays that you're like, is that Justin Fields? So we will talk about him as well as the Bills, Lamar Jackson, Josh McDaniels, is he ever going to win anything?

And Lincoln Riley's got a big game against a guy named Dionne Sanders come Saturday, big noon kickoff. Very excited for that one. Caleb Williams, Shador Sanders. I'm sure there's going to be some points scored in that bad boy, as well as Stucky. Stucky from the Action Network will join us, talk gambling. He's hot, he's winning a lot of picks.

I'm going to start giving my pick every week. Last week I started with Seattle to beat Carolina. They covered six points. This week, I will give my pick. pick. I have to allocate my resources because I'm just going all in on one game. And it's going to be my favorite game of the week. And that's the way we'll do it as well as Stucky's picks and what he thinks of the Colorado USC line, which is big like last week. The difference is the buffs are a 21 point dog, but they're at home this week. Last week they were in Eugene

so they can bounce back. If you listen on Collins' feed, make sure you subscribe to three and out feed. We're also on YouTube. Check us out on social media. And yeah, let's just go talk some ball. Before we dive in to this matchup, we just witnessed. Can I tell you about, I saw some people that have, I always see on Instagram people going to Lambo for the first time, people go into like Fenway Park or Wrigley Field for the first time. I've been to none of those three, though I would love to go. And if you ever want to do something like that, obviously baseball season is over, but go to Lambo, go to LSU, go to an incredible venue and watch a football game. You want to go to the Red Rivel rivalry,

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The Dan Campbell Lions, let's face it, they look good. They're three and one through the first, technically, it's not actually the quarter of the season now that we've got 17 games, but let's just consider it. They've beaten the Chiefs and they've beaten the Packers on the road. twice on national television. Those are two big-time wins. I don't care if Taylor Swift's boyfriend's injured on the sideline

or tonight the Packers are dealing with a ton of injuries. That's impressive wins, especially tonight. I mean, they showed up ready to kick the shit out of the Packers. And I wrote down a couple things. First and foremost, you don't need to be an NFL GM, an NFL scout, an NFL coach to see the talent the Lions possess. They have stud-impact players everywhere.

And let's be honest, at the most important positions, tackle, defensive end, this tight end looks like he has a chance to be a star, multiple wide receivers, multiple running backs, other good D-Lyman, good young linebackers, secondary, question mark. But they're going to play in a game where they're going to control from the line of scrimmage,

especially running the ball. So they're going to shorten the game. They're not trying to get in some contest where Jared Goff throws at 55. times a game. But their talent, their drafting these last several years is really impressive. And I never understood the freak out on draft night. How could you take a running back? It's like, well, they just didn't take a running back like the Falcons, which to me made no sense. It's like you already got running back. You need other positions. They parlayed six into 12,

which also gave them pick 34 in a draft that was terrible. And they took Gibbs, who I think think is going to be a really good player, the running back from Alabama. They also got the tight end from Iowa, who I'm not saying he's George Kittle or T.J. Hawkinson, but he sure looks to be in that mold, and they're featuring him tonight. So they not only got a running back who can catch the ball and a very versatile player, but they got a tight end that looks like, and I'm not trying to overreact to four games, but he's got a chance to be a stalwart on this team for years to come. So this team has drafted well. They have prioritized the right things. They, I would say, got lucky a little bit in the draft last year with Hutchinson.

That's a draft pick when Balky took the Georgia pass rusher. Think he'd like a redo on that one? He would. This Lions team is really, really talented. So, obviously the NFL is not college football, just because you have a really talented team. You're not guaranteed to make the playoffs or to win 11, 12 games. But we've all watched the Lions enough now.

At minimum of you've watched them twice. They're pretty good, man. they really are. And Dan Campbell took a lot of shit because everyone's like, oh, what's up with this meathead? And yeah, he probably chews a log every other day,

slams beers, lists to Metallica, and says some stuff that gets aggregated on social media that's kind of funny. And some other coaches may not say. But let's face it, the guy played in the NFL for a long time, his biggest proponents as coaches

were Bill Parcells and Sean Payton. And watching this team play this last year, right? They started slow, ended up making a run, ended Rogers career with the Packers, and then coming out this season when they kind of had a bullseye on them. And let's face it, I would say in any industry, it's always easier to be the hunter.

It's always easier to be when no one's paying attention and you can just, you know, make some ground when no one's looking, gain a little market share. it's a lot harder when everyone's kind of looking at you. And I'm not acting like they're the bills, the chief of the 49ers, but no one's overlooking the lions this year. People take them seriously on a weekly basis. I'll promise you that.

They just have too much talent. Their season went well last year. They carried it in. They're just too good at too many positions. So teams take them seriously, and they're responding. Last week, they beat the shit out of the Falcons. This week, beside a couple drives from Jordan Love, they worked the Packers. I mean, they showed up in Lambo, and listen, he doesn't call offense, he obviously doesn't call defense.

But he clearly is a huge part of helping to pick these players, of putting this team together, and motivating this group that plays their ass off. And let's be real, they're missing a couple pieces, especially a big one. They drafted James and Williams a couple years ago. Last year, he had the ACL, so he didn't play to the end of the season. Then he can't help but make a parlay that probably didn't cash and miss six games this year. you add him to the multiple receivers they already have, multiple running backs, that offensive line, I don't see how you can't take this offense

and put it near the top of the league when the dust settles. And they also have an offense that's going to translate. I know this, like the 49ers round two, I'm not saying they'd be scared of the Lions that they wouldn't be favored against the Lions, but that's not an easy game. I think this team's talent when you look at the rest of the NFC is like has some similarities

maybe a year or two ago to some of the Eagles, the Cowboys, and the 49ers. Now, I don't think they could beat one of those teams in a playoff game, but it wouldn't be the most shocking thing. They have a lot of things that translate to playoff football. The other thing is, now San Francisco, because Dallas plays in a dome and Levi Stadium, I mean, it could be a 75-degree day in the middle of January,

but if they did have to go on the road to Philly and it was an ugly environment, like they can really run the ball and their defensive line and playing the run, they're good at that. And led by Dan Campbell, who, let's face it, you do reflect your head coach in football.

And he's a tough guy, he's an intense guy, and when I watch the Lions, I see that. Right? What are the Harbaugh brothers always have? Neither of them call plays. They're both CEO, tough, crazy motherfuckers. And when you watch their teams play,

for the most part, over the last decade and a half, it reflects them. And when you watch the Lions play the second half of last year and the first four games of this year, you see a lot of Dan Campbell. And last but not least, Jared Goff. I was talking to a buddy in the NFL the other day

about scouting quarterbacks and what to look for. And he's like, they're such big lines of delineation. The top guys, once they get rolling, can kind of overcome anything. A guy slipping on a route, a drop pass, getting sacked, guys getting injured, bad play calls, they just can overcome it. Mentally, physically, they can always move on to the next play. They're unfazed. They can make plays out of nothing.

They can just carry you. And then there's like this next group who cannot do it nearly at that level. If the Mahomes and the Josh Allen's and the Lamars and the Herberts can bail you out a majority of the time, this next group, you'd probably have to cut that percentage in half. but they're still pretty darn good and you can win a lot of games with them. The Dax, the cousins. I think Jimmy Garoppolo is not any good anymore, but what he was with San Francisco, Derek Carr for bits and pieces of his career.

And I think Jared Goff is in that. When things are going pretty well and you have a good team around them, you can win a lot of games with this guy. Is he perfect? No. Not a great athlete. It doesn't give you much movement. But if you can block for him, the lions can.

Dude can sling it. If you can get open for him, he can get you the ball. Obviously that's happening. If you can run the ball, he's a pretty good quarterback to have. And I think Jared Goff, I think the Lions deserve a lot of credit. Because when that trade was made for Stafford, it was like, damn, you guys want Jared Gough. And the one thing Brad Holmes said, and I remember this back then, and they've obviously

reiterated that all the way till today, is they didn't view Jared Gough as just some throwin. They wanted him to be their quarterback. They thought he had a lot of football left. And this is the thing about being in, you know, player personnel is just when a lot of people, and listen, sometimes when the entire league and all the fans think this guy stinks, whoever that player may be, they're correct. But sometimes they're not. And that guy still has good football left in them.

I've talked about this before. A huge part of any of our lives or have people professionally believe in us, a boss, a mentor, a partner, someone to do business with, whoever, you need proponents professionally. You need people who think you are good, who believe in what you're doing. And let's face it, Sean McVeigh turned on the guy, hard publicly. It was actually pretty ugly. Sean McVeigh has gone as far as basically apologized for some of the things he did.

Now, Jared Gough was not playing well, but he clearly wasn't just some shot fighter. He wasn't just some scrub Because you've watched him the second half of last season Really a lot of last season And definitely this year He just looks like a solid quarterback Is he going to beat the 49ers or the Eagles Come mid-January?

Probably not But it's a big deal with the Lions I don't know just win this division Look at their schedule They got 12 wins written all over them You go 12 wins That'd be a really really big muscle flex For Jared Goff

The Lions Organization Dan Campbell Hat tipped to them because a lot of people thought that they couldn't live up to the hype not me. I picked them and I just bet on the talent. I really did.

And I think it's showing when you watch him play. Now let's go to the other team, the Green Bay Packers. Start with the quarterback. Jordan Love is a little Jekyll and a little hide because when he comes out

in the third quarter, he looks like a brand new quarterback. Moving around, throwing dimes, throwing bombs. You really see, the talent. It's clear. Jordan Love, we've seen a lot of scrubs

play in the NFL the last several years, right? Guys that are just not going to be quarterbacks as a starter in the NFL for long. Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance is never starting. We've seen a lot of guys. Josh Rosen had a little cup of coffee.

He's out. That just cannot play in the NFL. That is not Jordan Love. But I do think he kind of leaves you scratching your head. Because back-to-back weeks in the first half, Well, what's going on in the first half? Teams have game plans. Teams are ready.

Teams know what you like and don't like to do in terms of they've schemed it up, right? It's very like we're expecting or have a decent idea of what you're going to do. The Saints did last year or last week and he looked atrocious. And I've gone in kind of wanting to like this guy. I was like, I saw some stuff week one. I was like, I'm interested. Maybe Jordan loves a little better than I thought. And then you watch the first half of these games and you go,

And listen, Aidan Hutchinson looks like Reggie White out there, and their offensive lines getting shoved around. But he also is making some throws that go, that's not even close. And then in the second half, both teams have leads. Obviously, the Saints were up 17-0-0 in the fourth quarter. Maybe they just pull their foot off the pedal a little bit. Obviously, the lines come out, everyone's backed up a little bit. They don't want to give up any big plays. And he just starts slinging it around.

And then he kind of gained some confidence, gain some mojo, and he looks pretty good. but to me, for me to consider him like a good player, he's going to have to start doing this in the first halves. He can't just, I don't care who you are in the NFL, you can't get down big and expect to come back. You have to start the game fast. You have to lead some legitimate drives early in the game when they know what's coming.

That's what makes you a legitimate starter. So I would say right now, you know, he clearly does not stink. He clearly is not just like, that was a terrible pick. But I think we've got to be hesitant to say the Packers have something. He's a work in progress, rightfully so. I mean, he's a young player, hasn't really played.

This is only what? His fifth start of his NFL career. But they have to figure out, because the only way he can sustain, like the Packers are going to feel good about him being the starter for a while, is he can handle when the game plan, when the other team knows what's coming. Because that's what makes you a viable player. And I think this was my entire take coming in. of the season. To go from Fav to Rogers and to just expect a good starter, the law of averages

are just not on your side. The history of this position, the unlikelyhood, and the Packers historically, are one of the great personnel departments in the league. They know what they're doing. They know what they're looking for. And it's just, I just bet against it. And if I had to bet right now, is this guy their starter in three years or is this guy not their starter in three years? I would probably bet no. That's where I'd put my money. Now, I'd also say, like, I don't view this guy like I do some of those other quarterbacks I listed, but he does leave your head. He really does.

And if I'm the Lions, I don't know if I'm losing much sleep as long as the Packers have him. Now, the Packers, they have been terrible. Special teams has killed them for years. Remember in the playoff game against the Niners a couple years ago? The difference, block punt, touchdown ball game. Right? Tonight, they're in position making this comeback a little like last week. It's like, God, is this deja vu? And Quay Walker, who also I'm pretty sure got in trouble,

was it week 17 last year against the Lions in this game? Kind of a boneheaded mistake. Pretty clear that's not allowed anymore, even though he didn't touch the ball. I'm not a stickler for that rule. But it just feels like special teams defensively. They're just always leaving a little something to be desired. I don't know.

I would look at the Packers right now and think, I don't know if they're a playoff team, right? Because if the Lions win this division, you've got the Niners, Seattle, the Cowboys, the Eagles, you know, that seven spot is definitely up for grabs. Someone's got to win it in the South, but I don't know if I see it in the Packers,

but who knows? Maybe in the NFC, if you can get close to, you know, nine wins, if you got eight wins going in the last game of the season, and you've got a chance to get to nine and eight, maybe that gets you the seventh seed. But if I'm a Packer fan, taking some pride in last week's win.

Tonight, though, was, beside those couple drives in the third quarter, Dan Campbell kind of worked us, and that's not something we're used to. Okay, let's hit on a couple other games. After week one happened, it was hard not to just go, listen, not going to write Josh Allen off and just say this guy's no longer going to be good. You'd be stupid saying that, but that was a very embarrassing performance. And he admitted as such. but it was like is this guy just going to be this reckless player now?

Is this guy going to be a post-homegren Brett Farve and just compete to lead the league in interceptions? And are the bills in some trouble this year, right? Sean McDermott takes back the play calling. And then all of a sudden the last couple weeks, the bills got their swag back. And they demolish their opponents. And now they're playing the Dolphins,

who are kind of the talk of the town. Everyone's anointing them, wants to hand them basically the AFC champion, and just calling McDaniel, Tua, the receivers, just the toast of the town. And I think this is a big moment for the Bills, because they're going, wait, wait, wait. We've won this division three straight years.

We've been one of the league's power. You guys have made the playoffs once during that time as a seven seed, and we beat you in the playoffs. That was a little close for our liking. But this division comes through us. And to me, once they get their swag back, which they did the last couple weeks, This to me is a moment for Josh Allen who he's got a little work to do

but like you throw three or four touchdowns. You beat this Miami team by 10 plus points. That's how you kind of start your MVP discussion. Right. His numbers, if you remove the first game, are pretty good. Throwing dimes, running the ball. He looks awesome. Right? You do this against this team.

It's one thing to do it against the commanders. It's another thing to do it against the Raiders. You beat the Miami Dolphins. It's like, okay, week one, doesn't mean shit. In Buffalo, no excuse to not kind of have a little muscle flex. And this is why we watch sports. The highest paid players, the most talented players at home,

who have proven more than this Miami team, specifically the other quarterback. And this is also kind of a moment for him to be like, let's pump down the Tua talk a little bit. I'm still the big dog around here. And I'm really excited to watch Josh Allen this week take on a defense that, let's face it, has a good defensive coordinator,

but doesn't have that much talent. And it's a defense that he should slice and dice. And on the flip side, his coach, who took over the defensive coordinator position, pretty big moment for Sean McDermott. Because let's face it. And I know Colin's a little guilty of this, but he's not alone.

A lot of people were a little down on Buffalo coming into this season. You know, Sean McDermott, defensive head coach, what can he really do with the offense? Can he corral? Josh Allen. And now Sean McDermott, these last couple weeks, has really been like, I got one of the best defense in the league right now. We're getting pressure left and right.

No one can score on us. We can dominate. Well, let's see what you can do against Tua. Because here's what I know against Tua. If you do not hit him and you just give him time, and he doesn't even need that much time, he's getting rid of the ball fast. But if you do not touch him, you're going to be in trouble. I don't care if you're going to need like Dion Sanders and Revis in their prime

to cover these wide receivers. And you don't have that. But if you can get pressure and if you can hit him, it's a different ballgame. And that's happened in the past and he hasn't looked at. same. So to me, Josh Allen and Sean McDermott, like, this is a big moment for them to just, not just show the dolphins, but just kind of, hey, hey guys, remember, we've won this division the last three years. We're the team that if our defense somehow doesn't give up 48 yards in two plays to Kelsey and Tyree Kill, we're in the AFC championship game. Now, we did get

our ass kick last year by the Bengals, but we feel we've rallied the troops and we got a good as chance as anybody to be right back in the AFC championship. your game. We feel we're better than the Miami Dolphins. You got to do it. And I can't wait to watch this game. McDaniel, all those guys, they've earned it. You score 70 points. I don't give a shit if you're playing Cal Poly

or UC Davis and you're an NFL team. That's impressive. But that's not real football. It's not going to look like that most games. It's going to look like the Patriot game, honestly. That game was a lot closer than you actually think it was when you're watching it. You're like, how's this game?

They still got a chance? you can play defense against these guys which is not easy especially the motions the shifts he's moving these guys looks like Canadian football out there two guys run in 3 940s but I'm fascinated to watch Josh Allen this weekend

another guy that I'm just interested to see is for about 12 months Lamar Jackson's contract was one of the biggest stories in the NFL and rightfully so it's like he had won an MVP he had resurrected the Ravens they were at odds over the money all these different angles

of it like his mom's representing them. Should he take the money? They offered him enough money. They didn't actually offer him enough money. Who fucking knows? But actually who cares? Because now he's under an enormous contract. And I think he's looked beside a couple moments last week against he's looked pretty good. He really has. I mean, he's looked closer to his MVP self. Now, he's got seven million injuries on his team. I mean, the entire team's injured. And I think this is the type moment that you pay a guy like this a lot of money for. It's like, yeah, we got all these injuries. We're playing this awesome awesome defense. We're on the road against a divisional opponent.

And Lamar Jackson just finds a way to win it. This is why you pay this guy all this money, right? It's for this moment. It's one thing like the bills beat the dolphins. Like, yeah, we've been beating the dolphins. It's not even that crazy. It's another thing when half your starters are out, and it's all on you.

We pay you to almost overachief. And I'm fascinated to watch Lamar Jackson against this defense. reading some quotes from Jim Schwartz. Obviously their team speed on defense, their physicality. This is just a fantastic matchup. This is just one of the more dynamic quarterbacks we've ever seen from an athletic standpoint, who's also good at football,

against a defense that through the first three weeks looks like the steel curtain right now. So if I'm the Ravens, I go, listen, this is on Lamar to just find a way. It's not about stats. It's not about throwing three or four touchdowns or running for 150 yards. It's just willing our team somehow to a 17 to 15 victory.

Just finding a way to get us to beat a divisional opponent. Because all of a sudden we lose this game. You look up, we might have some issues. We got a bunch of injuries. We're not guaranteed to win anything. This is why we pay you all this money. And this is why Lamar Jackson wanted all this money. He's a star.

And great players sometimes can overcome adversity around them. Bad play calling, injuries. And I'm fascinated to see if Lamar can. do it. Another couple guys I'm fascinated to see what happens is the Chargers and the Raiders. Now, the Raiders, their home in Vegas constantly turns into an away game, right? They play the Steelers. It's like 70% Steelers. They play the 49ers. It's like 80% Niners. They'll play the Chiefs. It'll be a lot of Chiefs fan. I'd say the Denver fans would travel, but who's traveling to watch this Bronco team? when they play a lot of big brands,

their fans are going to pack Vegas. The one place Vegas is going to have a true home game is going to be in Los Angeles. Now listen, Staley, I'm done scratching my head over his crazy fourth down calls. I said it earlier in this week, and I will continue to say that

he's been doing that since the beginning. For those of us that follow this league and follow him closely, we red flagged him early on in this first, year for doing stuff like this because it was never working and he was constantly doing it. He didn't just start last week. That is his MO. But if you lose to the Raiders, it's hard for me to predict Dean Spanos.

I do think if he started O'N 3, they would have left him in Minnesota. Maybe it's on the table if he lose this game. But I actually think the Chargers probably win because I think the Raiders are in shambles. If you follow just people on social media, maybe you've seen, around the NFL and people that tweet different stats. Tyree Wilson, the guy the Raiders drafted number seven overall, they passed on Jalen Carter, which I don't think is totally crazy. But Jalen Carter with Max Crosby, probably look like a pretty good duo.

Wilson's been objectively a god-awful player. I mean, just terrible. He was one of those swing for the fences that right now the ball is in the catchers' mitt. It's like, we got problems. And the Raiders, they are. always feel like in this position of they're not making any progress. And I follow this team very closely

for over a decade. And it just every time they take a step forward or two steps forward, it feels like they take seven steps back. And if they lose against the Chargers, in front of home fans, they will be getting booed if it's not looking good. The Jimmy Garoppolo signing, and I have a lot

of respect for Jimmy. I think what he did with the 49ers, dude was a tough dude. He really was. Limitations as a player, but a guy, if you're team was elite, you go to war with the guy. He looks like a shell of himself. He just doesn't look very good. And you can give me different schemes, re-learning an offense, coming from chance, regardless, just pointing and throwing picks to the other team.

Like, that's Justin Field, Zach Wilson level stuff. Not a guy who's been a starting quarterback and made $125 million in the league. It's pretty embarrassing. When I watch the Raiders, I think, how long can this continue? How long can you be in a city? full of stars, bright lights, and entertainment, and just constantly suck. And Gruden was on that 10-year, $100 million contract. He was a made guy unless something like what happened happened.

He was not going to get fired regardless what happened for years. I don't know about Josh McDaniels. I think sometimes you know it right away. Right? Maybe I overhyped Brian Daibble. Last year was impressive. I truly believe that. His team wasn't that talented, and he willed him the nine wins.

Coaching, grit, tenacity. They did not have, to me, they were like 80% coaching, 20% talent. Now, this year, maybe they're terrible. They lose on Monday, A football, maybe they're not that good. And maybe we anointed dayball too fast. The thing is, Josh, we saw him, then he went away and just became a coordinator again, but the hype machine. You know, that's the key in the football.

Hype machine, hype machine. Use your national reporters. have Dan Pompeii write this article, how you do a journal. And then it's like, well, I think Josh has figured out. I bought into it. I was like, God, I'd hire the guy. And then you watch him and you go, this guy's just terrible at his job. I don't think he's a good head coach.

Now, he's not doing, well, you could argue Brandon Staley, last week kicking the field goal. Sometimes these guys get in these positions, like, what are you doing? How does this make any sense? Now, it's easy for all of us sitting on the couch, eating a bag of Doritos with a Coke Zero in our hand, or Guinness, or Guinness in our hand, watching the game and thinking,

it's harder on the sideline. But still, some of these decisions are so egregious. The other thing is the way you build your team. Like, you were the one that brought in Chandler Jones, who was just off the reservation on social media, who you refused to allow around the team, because clearly, I don't know, something weird's going on. And I just wonder how long,

you can keep rolling. It's always easy to say for a fan base. Like, hey, man, just suck this year for the coach and then try to get Caleb Williams or Drake May. But if I'm an owner and that guy sucks to get me Drake May or Caleb Williams, there's going to be many months where I sit there, either in my suite watching the game

or during the week in all my big homes and whatever rich people sit and hang out at and think about how much my coach sucks. And now all these guys, have the money to write, here's $30 million leave. Because if I think you suck, I can't keep you around. Like Brandon Staley, he's not going to be the coach in 2024. That's a fact.

There is no chance on God's Green Earth. Brandon Staley is the Chargers head coach next year. But the Josh McDaniels thing is kind of fascinating. Like, how's this thing going to go? Because I also had the same thought about Belichick and the Patriots. It's like, I like the Cowboys a lot this weekend. And let's say the Cowboys covered the Six and a Half. and win the game, you know, 30 to 13 and just kind of dominate them.

It's like I was talking to someone about it that knows Bill who's been around him back in the day. And I said, do you think Bill could ever get fired? He's like, no chance. I'm like, I don't think he gets fired like a Brandon Staley would get fired or a Jim Tom Sula or Freddie Kitchens gets fired. But Bill Belichick's never going to be like, you know what, Robert, I've just lost my fastball. I don't think I can coach this team at a high level anymore. Just let's have a hug. We'll make public statements.

You give me a golden parachute. And I'll just go, I guess I can't go with Cougar Linda anymore because we're broken up. I'll just go find new girlfriend, hang out in Nantucket, and kick it. That's never going to happen. The only way it's like, hey, I don't think it's working out anymore. Like, we've seen it, we've done it, it's kind of over.

And if they're staring at a six-win team, last year they win, you start trending the wrong way year after year, there's no hope either. Right, that's the thing with the Raiders. Like, where's your hope? He's like, well, we got Devante Adams. Well, yeah, he's killing it every game and you're losing. Max Crosby, killing it every game and you're losing.

Belichick, you don't even have like sweet impact players. Where are we going? What are we going to do? How would we upgrade a quarterback? I don't see it. So I don't think, I think Belichick's one of the best coaches. He's the best football coach I've ever seen. And he's one of the all-time greats any sport.

But things come to an end. You know, things eventually end. The rubber meets the road, especially as you age. age. I mean, the guy's in his early 70s, and he's stubborn as ever. So you start losing these games, which he should, he's a huge underdog, but all of a sudden you look up and you're like, God, they're two and six. I do think it's on the table this year with the Patriots. And last but not least, I like this guy. I've been him a couple times. Back in the day before this podcast came to the volume, he came on. He's clearly impressive and earned a $100 million

contract to come to USC, and people love the guy because he's an offensive innovator. But a lot of people just think like this USC team, like playoff contender. I don't see it. I don't see anything on defense. There's not a physicality about them. There's not a grit to them. I like about eight teams in college football better. Now, they're clearly better than Colorado, right?

No one even objectively thinks USC and Colorado rosters are even close. But like USC, like Arizona State last week, was a game going into the second half, in the middle of the second half. Because when you're not a tough team and defense isn't a priority, I don't care if you have Caleb Williams throw into Randy Moss, Barry Sanders, and Terrell Owens. You still are going to give up points. You're going to look up and it's going to be 50 to 38. It's like, wow, what is going on?

That is not a recipe to win in the playoffs and definitely a national championship. If the USC is real, I don't think they are. To me, I view them as like a 10-2 team. Some people view them, like, I don't even think they'll be in the Pack 12 championship game, and I definitely don't think they're a playoff team given the way this defense is playing. And especially if they play, like, I think they're going to play on Saturday, I don't expect to change my opinion. But, like, this is the type game, what did Dan Landing do?

And I know they were hosting the game. They came out and they shoved Colorado around. It's not about Caleb Williams throwing a million touchdowns. I know he can do that. I know you're going to score points. Can you shove this team around? everyone's going to be watching you know it's going to be 10 plus million people

like the NFL Jay Z's coming LeBron and Bronny are coming Will Ferrell Snoop Dog it's going to be a spectacle but can you just show up and beat the shit out of them like Oregon did and kind of flex your muscles and show

now I don't think that's going to happen but to me Lincoln eventually needs to start doing that or I don't think he can beat Oregon Washington and Utah or you know he maybe he'll win one of three of those games there's a toughness to football. You see it with the Lions? What's a big point of difference for the Lions?

They're really tough. They're really physical. It's kind of what the Packers lack. And honestly, they've lacked it for a long time. If you gave Aaron Rogers some of those tough grittiness that the Steelers have, that the 49ers have had over the years, maybe they won some more playoff games, right? I think the Eagles have it now.

They just lack it. And when you lack toughness at the highest level of Division I football and obviously in the NFL, it catches up to you because there's a physicality element to the sport as the year goes on, the weather changes. Even if you play in Southern California, you're still going to end up in some inclement weather whether it be in Washington or Utah,

you've got to be tough. And I just don't see it. I understand why Colorado's not that tough. They don't have the players. But USC, you've bought half the country the last couple years, got all these transfers this offseason from the SEC. Like, can you please show up? let's do the Guinness

Bold Take of the week and this is hard because it's like you gotta be pretty aggressive but it's like I don't want to say something I totally don't believe like the Cardinals are going to beat

the 49ers you know when I said Alabama last week was going to lose Ole Miss I believe that and I talked to someone that scouts the SEC is like Old Miss laid an egg

like they should be able to win that game so I didn't even feel that bad I like my bold take because my bold take of the week brought to you by Guinness. Is Sean Payton, the $90 million coach? Sometimes I hear he say, he signed a 10-year, $100 million contract.

No, he signed a five-year $90 million contract. Think like an NBA player. He's getting paid a premium. He's going to Chicago, who everyone's been making fun, a ton of memes out there this week, is like, this game should be played at like 3 a.m., send this game internationally.

Agree, funny. I kind of want to keep an eye on this thing. because I like the Bears to beat Sean Payton. And if you think last week was bad, and trust me it was, losing 70 to 20, but at least you can say,

hey, this is the most innovative offense in the league, all this firepower, one of the bright young minds. You lost 70, something we'll never forget, but at least it was to the best offense in the league. You lose to the Chicago Bears, who are objectively like you're equal, like just as bad as you,

yet you're favored in this game by several points because you got Russell Wilson and they got Justin Fields who will not be a starting quarterback in the NFL in 2024. I think I think Iber flus, or as I used to call them, Uber Fluse, breaks the streak, 13 straight games and beats... I don't see how you come back. Because the other thing is like, well, you got to show some character, come out swinging after your big loss.

Bears have the same thing. I mean, you're basically, you know that Spider-Man meme where they're looking at each other, same person. I think that's this. Like, what the hell is the difference? I'm taking the Bears at home in just an all-time. Sean Payton's 0-and-4 in his last two losses, bears and losing by 50. That is my bold take of the week.

Brought to you by Guinness, gather your friends, raise your glasses and toast to a win. Guinness Drought Stout, Imported by Diageo Beer Company, USA, New York, New York. Please drink responsibly. We're back with another. week of football and draft king sports book is keeping us in on the NFL action with great offers every single game day new customers can bet five dollars and get two hundred dollars instantly in bonus bets throw five down on any of this week's epic matchups to walk away an instant

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C.DKNG.com slash football for eligibility. Terms and responsible gaming resources. Bonus bets expire 7. days after issuance. Eligibility and deposit restrictions apply. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full

year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.

And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream,

this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people.

I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jette. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack.

I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack, so I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really?

Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Live here on Amp. Football, wasn't that long ago, we were begging for it to be here. Now we're already in NFL week four. College feels like we're in week eight. And I got my man Stucky from the Action Network, Big Betts on campus, who is red-hot right now.

NFL pick 7 and 4. If I wanted to count, which I think is just the pick that no one saw coming beside the smart guys behind the scenes, the Florida Tennessee college game, which he fucking hit with ease. Stucky's hot. Stucky, what's up, bro? What's going on, brother?

Yeah, we're in the midst of it now. We're going to start to learn about, although some of these teams we're not going to learn about at the top. We're not going to learn about for a while, but in college, like Michigan doesn't play. It still doesn't play anyone for the next five weeks. because the Big Ten is so bad at the bottom. And Georgia doesn't play anyone all year.

But I learned a little bit about them against Auburn this week. And, yeah, NFL, we got some pretty good matchups this weekend. Unfortunately, the NFL doesn't flex games this early because Bill's Dolphins over Zach Wilson in primetime would certainly be the move. Shows you in college has much more flexibility with that as the season goes. the NFL, and I don't blame them, right, Rogers versus the Chiefs, but clearly that changes four plays in, and it's like you're kind of stuck, and the dolphins are, you know, one of the teams of the last, I mean, I don't remember any teams starting this fast that people thought they were going to be good,

but you win to get, you score 70 points, and, you know, they got the quirky coach, and they got, they kind of feel like the Golden State Warriors in like 2015 or something. You're like, Jesus, the hell you're going to do with this team. But they're the underdog this weekend. We'll get into the NFL here in a second. and I'm going to do something a little different to start before we get to your picks but I did want to touch on because we talked about this before

we hit record here I don't know if you've seen the list of celebrities coming to this game in Colorado it's like Jay-Z, LeBron and Brani probably Obama I mean who know I mean everyone's coming legitimately Jay Z and LeBron are going Obviously Tio I think is on the staff or something

He's always around Shannon Sharp Stephen A probably make a camera This game is Big Noon kickoff. The ratings have been outrageous. Colorado got their ass kick last week. They took it on the chin. Pretty embarrassing, I thought, moment for them once the Oregon video comes out of them

talking shit to the other place. Like, guys, you guys aren't Dion, right? Let's just be careful here. And they ran into a buzzsaw, which a team that, you know, I think has a legitimate chance to be a playoff team in Oregon. USC in theory does, but defensively they are not as physical as Oregon. but offensively they are elite. I mean, they got a guy that's going to get drafted number one.

They got skill guys everywhere. Honestly, it's kind of like the team times five of TCU style, right? Just going to score a bunch of points. We'll give up a bunch. I mean, I didn't watch the game, but I went to the ASU game two weeks ago against Fresno State, and Fresno State beat the shit out of them. And then I'm following the score on my phone at this wedding.

It's like, what is USC doing? USC is not some, for every time they beat Stanford 49 to 3 going into halftime. You can look up and it can be tied because their defense sucks. So huge line here, Colorado getting 21 plus points at home. That feels like a lot, man, for a team that's, you know, U.S. Lincoln Riley's history, especially this last year in however many games of USC, their defense is just not good. I don't care how many transfers come from the SEC. Yeah, it's basically just Oklahoma.

picked up and moved out in Los Angeles. It's the same defensive coordinator with the same problems that they just refuse to fix. And the offense is elite. There's weapons everywhere. You have a Heisman quarterback. It's all the same shit that we saw at Oklahoma. And ultimately, what ends up happening is the defense burns them

because you run into another elite team that can score and you just can't get any stops and they can. So, yeah, this number does seem, I mean, look, as you said, Fresno State, shut out Arizona State. Arizona State we shut out at home for the first time since 1988. They had eight turnovers. I think they used 11 quarterbacks.

I don't know how many of them used, but they used a lot of quarterbacks. They used three. They used three. Yeah, who did nothing. And then it's like 3528 because the USC defense just isn't that good. And you can move the ball on them. And look, Colorado is flawed. Their offensive line is not that great.

They can't run the ball at all. The defense is thin. and you know you're also missing hunter who's important on both sides of the ball but Sanders is playing at such a high level that you know they should be able to put up points against this USC team and then if it's a blowout like USC blowing you out like if it's 5628 in the four like you can go down and score touchdown and still cover uh in a complete blowout so yeah I was all over at Oregon last week the one thing that concerns me that you say you know like But this week, I'm not laying 21 and a half with USC and that defense on the road.

But every week, I think it's good for like building the program and drawing attention to it for, you know, potential future transfer additions. But every week for Colorado is this huge spectacle. And like it's every, it's so emotional in this big event that it's got to be exhausting for the kids. You know, a lot of these other programs that they're now they're going to start playing, the top teams in the Pac-12. you know, like they're beating the shit out of, you know, Cupcake State in week two, and they're not exerting much energy. Colorado is exerting energy every single week. And then you're bringing all these,

you're talking shit, and then you're bringing all these celebrities in, like, kind of serving as... A lot going on. A lot going on. Yeah, and you're trying to, and that serves as motivation for these other teams to want to beat the shit out of you. And when, like, in theory, USC going to Colorado, if there wasn't all this hoopla around Colorado,

that's supposed to be like a sleepy, trappy spot for USC and their defense, but they're going to come in fully focused. I think it's little too many points with this USC day. Of all the weeks Dan Laining will have over last year and this year of getting ready for good teams, Washington, USC, Utah. That's like serious football week, but he'll never have a week when he's favored by that much. This is easy to like get the troops ready all week. So you're always getting these squads. Now, to me, it's a little different to USC. The other thing with USC is because Fox, right,

their biggest game of the week ratings-wise, is always that 9 a.m. for us on the West Coast kickoff. And Colorado's now been a rating juggernaut. They love putting that game there. And they did it earlier with Nebraska, and obviously they're doing it this week. Not ideal for USC. Yeah, 9 a.m. body clock kick.

Yeah, that is, listen, 1230, 30, once you get to college, you get used to playing that. time you'd rather probably play four but not that's a that's a sneaky spot that i could see USC i don't know i could just see it being weird i you know Caleb maybe just a little dreary you know yeah and colato's done it already exactly and they just got their ass kicked so they're going to be have just motivation to like play better you know it's an easy and the the place will be electric so if they can catch USC and that defense which isn't that great they can catch them early and jump out, then all the sudden, like, all the pressure shifts to you see, the crowd is

going to be crazy. You might get a couple calls. And then all of a sudden it gets really interesting. So, yeah, that's a great point. Very early on in this game, if Colorado is going to be live to make this a game, they've got to get out to a fast start. Okay. One thing I wanted to do because people have been asking, like, Middlecock, you never make a pick.

And usually, I used to just bet a lot of games. I got this big remodel going on. So I got to be careful with my cash. What I've been doing is just going kind of big. And $100 on a game doesn't get my rocks off. So if I'm going to spread it around, I'm just been going big on one game. Last week I did Seattle.

Sweated it for a minute, but, you know, they covered. This week, I've gone back and forth on two games. Did you got Notre Dame last week? I didn't because I wasn't going to be able to watch it. And I just felt better. I don't know enough about college football in terms of those two teams I hadn't really watched Sam Hartman

he had been beaten nobody's I like the number but I just I didn't know I felt better about Seattle against Carolina who I knew sucked especially once Dalton was going to go even though it was tough but they scored 37 points was crazy because Carolina's defense actually pretty good so this week I'm tempted

like I got two games circled obviously the Sunday night game but you go that's one of those classic like feels too big of a lock, right? Kansas City, you're going to kill them, and then all of a sudden you're just in a weird game. But, like, Zach, that defense is playing really good. But I just stayed away from that. I just don't think New England's that good. I think their offense is, I think Mac Jones is average as the day as long. I don't think they're that talented. Their running game is a show of what it was a couple years ago when they made the playoffs and they could run down people's throats. You know, defensively, clearly they can just make

the game ugly. I don't think they have like elite talent. They've been banged up. on that unit. Everyone, because Dallas kind of lays an egg in Arizona, is going to be like, oh, Dallas is actually average. Dallas minus six and a half at home. I view New England, and listen, it's no disrespect to Bill. I do think he is an awesome coach. And most teams, if you gave them this roster, probably win like three games, he's going to win probably six or seven. But there's still a six or seven win team. And to me, Dallas is still on a given week when they're playing right, a top, probably should be a top five team. And last week, they lose one of their best players. Those guys are, I wonder if that rattled them a little bit. I'm going Dallas minus six and a

half. And these are back-to-back weeks now going all in on a team, a home team, given a decent amount of points. But I just don't think New England's that good. And if I rank Dallas like fifth, I'd rank New England closer to like low 20s, that's where I'm going. Yeah, I don't hate it. It's a good bounce back spot for Dallas. I think Dallas just got, looked at some injuries on the offensive line. They lose digs. And I also think that they just went in there and completely overlooked. Arizona. They were terrible in the red zone too. I mean, they moved the ball. They were in the red zone like six times and didn't score anything. But you saw this with the giant, even the Giants after loss, like they got down 28 nothing to Arizona. So I think a lot of these teams, I think it's going to work in San Francisco's favor, San Francisco's favorite this week because, you know, they just saw Arizona beat Dallas, right? But I think a lot of these teams knew how bad this roster was and just assumed like it's going to be a free win. And then, you know, these are still professionals playing hard. So I think Dallas has kind of got caught in a sleepy spot. Yeah, I agree with your assessment on Mac Jones. But the Patriots, they're just a, they're a weird team to me because they did play Philly really tough and they played Miami really tough.

So, like, they can ugly up a game. And yeah, the run game isn't what it was. But that's Dallas's weakness. The run defense. I mean, Arizona ran for over 200 against them. So, yeah, I can see, I can see New England, you know, just ugling this up enough to stay within the number. but I agree. I think now that this spread, the look at the line is minus seven and a half. Now, because Dallas lost, who cares if New England beat Zach Wilson? They basically just

scored and then said we're good and punted the rest of the game. Yeah. But because Dallas lost Arizona, you're now getting under a touchdown in a good bounce back spot at home. So yeah, I think from a market, buy low, sell high perspective, I think Dallas is the spot, but I would be just a bit concerned about New England ugling up this game enough, but I think it's Dallas or nothing. Yeah, philosophically, I used to gamble a lot on overs in the NBA, and then I got a little too deep into it. I started doing unders as well. I just, and definitely in the NFL, I'm just not a big under guy, but that might be the play here, right? I mean, this game could just be low scoring, Cowboys win. That's the one thing that makes me nervous, but, you know, it's football. I mean, last week,

I was like, oh, fuck, Carolina ain't scoring more than 13 points. All of a sudden, you look up. You're like, what the hell is going on? So it makes gambling. So let's make the sweat fun. Okay, let's dive in the Jags who are headed overseas now for a couple straight weeks are playing Atlanta, who is it safe to say got their ass kick last week by the Lions? Yep. So the Jags have looked pretty terrible.

And I saw Doug Peterson, I don't know if screamed at like his offensive staff last half time, but I think they had some words. clearly they got worked, which I would say was one of the shockers of the week. Just for the casual fan, like are the Jags not good? And offensively, like one of the things I thought their formula was going to be an elite offense and be bad on defense, but be like a top five, six offense in the league, and they have not been very good on offense so far. I don't like Atlanta, never have, never really will, but definitely not this team with Desmond

Ritter. I know you like the Jags minus three. give us a sales pitch here. Yeah, look, the Jags have not been good this year, but they're off back-to-back losses. I think this is a spot to buy them. They're going to a place that they're really familiar with. Atlanta, you know, second straight road game going overseas,

not as familiar there. And if you look at what Atlanta's Dunsabar, like you beat a rookie quarterback. You were trailing in the second half, who has not looked good at all in the opener. You beat Green Bay by one. They were missing, like, half of their best players. Kind of a weird win, too.

I mean, Green Bay should have won that game. I thought. I watched a lot of it. Yeah, even without a number of key players. And then you get drilled by a Detroit team that was dealing with a lot of injuries. And just the offense is not where, you know, I thought it could be. They have a lot of different chess pieces. And it's just, they're just damn strong because their quarterback can't throw the ball.

So just on the surface, this is Trevor Lawrence versus Desmond Ritter. I'm going to side with Trevor Lawrence, even though he doesn't look great this year. But, you know, he's, that's something we've seen with Trevor Lawrence throughout his career so far, just inconsistency, right? He will have these stretches where it looks like the best quarterback in the NFL, and then you're saying what's going on here. I think this is a good defense to face to kind of get back on track. And most importantly, and look, the Jacksonville last week, they got, they lost by 20, but they, you know, they got a white fullback returning a kick for a touchdown, which was insane. The upman returns it. Shut up my goal stuff.

Yeah, but they actually outgain. It wasn't as bad as it looked. But Lawrence has definitely been off. The defense isn't great. The secondary is awful, but they're really good against the run. The defensive coordinator is a Todd Bowles disciple. Todd Bowles' defenses just by design are always good against the run. And this defense last year, excellent against the run, bad against the past.

Same thing this year. Top two, or top three, I should say, in rush success rate, EPA per rush allowed. You could throw on them, but you can't run on them. Well, what does Atlanta want to do? they're basically a service academy, the NFL. They can't throw the ball. They just want to run. So they're not going to be able to do that here.

You can see Jackson will probably bring another safety down, force Ritter to beat them. I don't think you can. So I think this is a good bounce back spot for the Jaggs. Jags also been a bit unlucky. They're like 28% on third downs. That's like Zach Wilson territory. Last year they were top 10 in the league.

And, you know, they're one of seven, I think, on fourth downs. Last year they were at 53, 54%. So some of these late down variants and, you know, special teams blunders have gone against them. That's just randomness. But I think this is a good bounce back spot and a good matchup, most importantly. So you get the better quarterback, you get a good matchup for their defense and in a place that they're familiar with.

So I think three is a good number to lay here. The look at line is like four and a half five. So now because of the back-to-back losses, Jags not looking great last week, you're getting three. And I disagree with that big of a move, especially because it's not like Atlanta has impressed me. Okay, Cleveland, Baltimore. You fall, I got a DM the other day from a Ravens fan. I do this mailbag thing, and he's like, listen, I've been watching the Ravens forever.

What's up with these injuries? Like, why for years now are just guys dropping like flies constantly? It's just, and I said, listen, it's football. You've seen it with the Eagles, the 49ers a couple years ago. Sometimes it's just kind of dumb luck. Now, when injured guys keep getting injured, then it's kind of on you for keeping the player. But, like, I don't know what else to say besides it's football, guys get injured. yeah a lot of ratings has one of the blame steve saunders the strength and conditioning coach he got fired

that wasn't the wasn't the problem i think yeah i don't know i think it's just bad just bad luck i mean the one of the reasons why i really like the 49ers this year because what because you have to ask yourself like is there some systemic issue with how they're recovering treating training when like because the 49ers have been in the top 10 in adjusted games loss on offense and defense for like eight years. So at one point you're like, all right, how can this keep happening? But what if the 49ers ever got good injury luck for an entire season? How dangerous would they actually be?

Yeah, and the Ravens are going on like three straight years now where it is just horrendous injury. If you're down seven, eight key starters already. And look, yeah, I like the Browns here in this game. This is similar to last week. I took the Browns. I faded the ramp. That's my team, the Ravens. I don't think the market's adjusting for how many injuries they have.

I mean, you're missing your top corner. You have the injuries that's safety. You've lost your slot corner. Debt pieces in the secondary. They don't have a pass rush anymore because O.A. A jobbo or hurt. You've already lost Dobbins. You have other injuries at running back.

You know, Beckham wasn't practicing. You have injuries at wide receiver. Offensive linemen might come back this week, but there still might be hobbled. Might not go. I mean, that's a lot of start. is missing. Meanwhile, the Browns, he lost Chubb, but other than that, they're pretty healthy. And this defense, I think, might be the best in the NFL. They are dominating right now. I loved them coming into the year because last year they just had these communication issues.

Just get a new defense coordinator can fix that low-hanging fruit. They add a bulk in the interior to fix the run defense. You bring a Juan Thornhill to add to the safety group. Already have three really good corners. You have Miles Garrett was playing out of his mind, defensive player, the year. level. Last week, he just destroyed, destroyed Tennessee to the point where Rable just was shaking his head and they were just punting to get out of town at the end of that game. This defense is dominant right now. They're playing with so much swagger and confidence that I've only seen from like the most dominant defenses over the past 20 years. And Lamar's still learning this new offense under pressure this season. He's 32 out of 34 quarterbacks quarterback rating.

And he should be under pressure a lot here. And look, yeah, there's no change. chub, but the Brown still should be able to run the ball a bit. But last week, you saw Watson finally have a really good game passing 27 to 33, 300 yards. And that was attacking a Tennessee secondary that's dealing with some injuries, a bit more vulnerable than the run day. Same thing here. So I think that he can hit enough deep shots. This Brown's defense is playing so well. To put in the perspective, the Brown's success rate allowed on defense is 25%. The next best is the bills at 38%. What's considered success? So, like, if you gain, you know, if you score on a play, you know, if you were to gain, you know, four yards on first down, if you convert a third down.

So people use different tweaks of different forms. But it's basically that. Like, are you getting, you know, you're having a successful first down play, then that would great successful. You're having a successful second up. Third down is always that you convert to third down. And if you scored a touchdown, obviously that's successful. 25%. Next is 38.

last year the defense that led the NFL was 39 and a half percent they're at 25 teams have had 39 drives against them one has gotten into the red zone it was last week on a miraculous fourth and four bomb that tannhill just threw up they didn't even score in that possession because miles garrett sacked tannoh within a second and time even though tannock was probably instructed to throw the ball away he just couldn't even have time to throw it away time ran out in the half and tennessee ran into the locker room because they didn't have any time out I mean, look, this team should be three and oh. They gave up two fluky defensive touchdowns to Pittsburgh, defense playing on another level.

Ravens too many injuries. So, yeah, I think Browns get this done. I actually, look, it could be low scoring division game. So I actually played instead of laying the points out, I actually did play money line. I parlayed the money line with the 49ers money line, which I think is safe. And that gets you even money because this could be a really low scoring game. I feel a little bit more comfortable with the money line on Cleveland if someone wants to take that route as well. But I also like them if you can get two and a half up to minus 115.

Well, to me, something to keep an eye on, and I've heard some people talking about it this week. I didn't watch that much of the game, though. I mean, I know about their talent up front, and obviously the corners are sweet. If this defense is, like, legitimately the number one defense in the league, all Deshaun has to be is operate like. He doesn't need to be Mahomes. He just needs to be more Dachish Jimmy Garoppolo. And are we looking at a 12-13-win team? Because if I can't score on you, fuck,

I'd have to score 13, 14 points a game. I mean, they're going to overwhelm people, right? Yeah. Yeah, I mean, it is the IFC, so it's still tough. Like, you know, there's going to be some tough games. In the AFC North, you're always going to be in these absolute wars. They play the 49ers this year. They play at Seattle.

I mean, they're going to have some tough non-conference games because that division plays the NFC East. yeah but they excuse me the nfc west yeah the i will say that the schedule's kind of working out for them because you got um you you you got to win over cincy um you got to win over cincy in week one when burrow was banged up and then you're going to get the ravens here who are dealing with a lot of injuries and they get the 49ers

but that's after a buy week um so you get a buy week before that game which is definitely going to help. And you know who the Niners play next week Sunday night, Dallas Cowboys. So that's going to come off a war. So they're going to be banged up. Someone will get hurt in that game. Yeah. So and then after that, you know, you got Colt, Seawks, Cardinals.

So, yeah. They play the Broncos this year. They get the bears. I mean, they got, how's this team if this defense just maintains this, not a playoff team? Yeah, they should be. They should be a playoff team. Especially because if you look at the Jets, the Jets are done, they were supposed to be in the

conversation, you know, the chargers are chargering. They were supposed to be in the conversation. So, you know, you look around and you say, well, it looks like it's just going to be the chiefs from that division. You got the bills and the dolphins, right? And then, you know, you're, the AFC North, you're definitely going to get two teams. And with what Burrell looks like, I think it's going to be the Browns and then I think the Ravens probably but I think the Browns are certainly a plow team I think they're actually going to win the division

but you're right it doesn't have to be great now losing Chubb is going to hurt like in some of those games where it's like a an ugly battle and you can just he could just churn out those yards but yeah last year he was bad which you can't have he just has to be average if this defense is going to be as

elite as it looks and I think it can't Yeah, to me the only wild card would be like if they lose a weird, like the pressure's on him, right? Because you know Miles and the defense is going to be fine. You saw it on the Monday night game. It's like, what the fuck is going on here? So it's like they play in a couple bright lights game against the 49ers and he looks like shit and they lose 17 to 13, that pressure on him. But God, I mean, I didn't, I mean, we knew how good Miles is. Sometimes when you have a guy like that, like a Miles, like a Micah Parsons, a Bosa, everyone else, like even their rams.

random rotational guys get this like fake swag that turns into real swag. And then they all of a sudden you look up like, wait, this guy had seven sacks on the season. It's just because defensive line men all rotate together. Miles Garrett could be playing with the seventh defensive line. You know, it's not like a normal position that way. So yeah, I might have underestimated them for sure. And then probably, I just looked real quick. I only have them an underdog, projected underdog, in three more games this year.

None by more than a field role. Um, so yeah, I mean, they're, and they're only going to face like a couple more teams, San Fran. You think they'll be, will they be favored assuming, let's say the Niners beat the Cowboys? Would that, would that be like a pick them, you think? If Sam Fran, Sam Fran, maybe San Fran minus one pick. I bet San Fram probably opens minus one. Browns take money.

Probably closes a pick. Um, but yeah, it will depend. That's a good game. That's a good morning game. yet. Great game. It will depend on what Sanford obviously does against Dallas and then assuming Cleveland wins this week because then you're not going to get another data point. But if Cleveland wins this week, San Francisco wins against Dallas. Yeah, that's the one either way. That's basically a coin flip. Okay, let's go game of the week. It's probably, I said this on the

pod yesterday. A team will never in the history of the league again. Give up 70 points and then your favor the next week. That'll never happen again in league history. Do you agree? And you score, yeah, and the team that scored 70 points is an underdog. Do you think, would you rather lose 50 to nothing or

70 to 20? Because that's basically three more touchdowns on top. Um, I would say 50 to nothing, because then you're always, you're always going to be in like the graphic. Like in 30 years from now,

when someone scores like 68 points, they'll say, here are the three, you know, highest scoring games in NFL history. And your defense will live in infamy there. So I'll say 50 nothing. But it was, the tackling, it was, it was embarrassing. There was guys just on the ground, just like not even dying. It looked like they quit. Well, they did. It was embarrassing. to me, even though it's not technically the NFL record, because it's 1966, it is. No one will ever forget that. It's of age and watches football. Like, 70 is the new modern day record in everyone's mind.

So, like, Sean Payton ain't shaking that for a while. Yeah, I think that they should have kicked the field goal to set their record. I mean, what is this, like, sportsmanship? It's like, come on. I remember Steve Kerr did the same thing. One time, Clay had 60 through three quarters. Like, let him try to get it. at 80 and he didn't play

him in the fourth quarter. It's like, this is fun. It's sports. Like, what are we doing? You score 70, and obviously you're playing one of the better teams in the league over the last three or four years, but you're an underdog, and it's a team that you beat last year, though that game was really weird.

And statistically, you'd know better than me. It wasn't in an outlier situation that a team with, you know, the difference in yardages and everything ever loses that game, the Bills did. What's your thoughts? I mean, bills minus two and a half. It feels like everyone's going to be on Miami this week.

I would imagine they're taking a lot of public cash. Yeah, a ton of big public side this week. But yeah, I like the bills here. This line, the look-out line was minus three and a half. So now you're getting, you know, you're getting two and a half because of what Miami did. But what is Buffalo the last two weeks has beat two teams 75 to 13. Like, it's not like Buffalo was rolling that offensive line is playing well, which is the big question coming in the year.

And what Miami did was unbelievable. McDaniel's awesome. That offense is great. And they did it without Armstead and Waddle, by the way. But they did it. Their offenses exploded against the chargers and the Broncos, who haven't been able to stop a nosebleed this year. I mean, Sam Hal put up 32 points in three quarters against the Broncos defense to come back

from 17 down. Sam Hal last week did nothing against his bill's defense. He was sacked nine times, I think. And they got absolutely. seal club by Buffalo. And, you know, Buffalo, they're, look, the way that I look at this game, and by the way, when these two teams played late last year,

Buffalo was a seven-point home favorite. This is a big overreaction, and now you're coming down across the three. And, yeah, look, it's a week, you never want to overreact to one thing that you see in the NFL. Miami's offense looked amazing last week. They rolled. But if you go back 30 years in the NFL,

teams that win by more than 35 points, the next week, they're 38% against the spread. So teams that look, oh my God, they won by 35, usually you might get a little overcorrection in the market, which I think we got here. And, you know, go back to the New England, the New England kind of slowed down Miami enough

to win that game. They just didn't have an offense, right? They'd get across the 50, and then, you know, Matt Jones and those receivers just couldn't make enough plays. But they had an opportunity to win that game, held Miami under 30. There's some things that McDermott can take from that.

McDermen's own to a, in the past and buffalo look this is how i look at this game buffalo has an elite offense miami has an elite offense buffalo has an elite defense miami does not uh miami's defense right now they're still trying to figure it out you know you're missing ramsie howard they're supposed to be their top corner i think he's a little passed over the hill uh and passed his prime not in the That defense isn't great. So I just think, and then look, the special teams, Miami special teams last year by some ratings were dead last in the NFL. This year they've been bad as well.

Buffalo last year by some retrofinished number one. So that could matter in a game that could be close. So I have the team playing at home with the better defense and the better special teams and in a matchup of two lead offenses. What I think that leads to is just Buffalo's D. will get one or two more key stops in this game should be fun. But now that this line, you know, you can get a cheap three or two and a half. I think that you have to take Buffalo here and sell Miami after what they did last week. Every two a highlight of them doing something sweet, there's no one around them.

Yeah, no pressure. Never gets no pressure. I mean, and they blitz. They blitz a ton. I don't know what Vance Joseph is doing. But yeah, they get no pressure whatsoever. He was, if you look at the defense, like an advanced metric of all of the Denver defense, it's like pressure rate, hurries, knockdowns.

It's zero. I've never even seen it. It's just zeros. It's just like no one showed out and did anything. You hit this guy. The 49er game last year, they came in. It was like, God, this is going to be a big game. And they just kept hitting them.

They were blitzing them, and it threw them off. Obviously, if he gets injured, it would throw Miami off. But if he's going to play and stay, you know, you got to hit him. Whether that's blitzing, obviously, like you said, Buffalo can just generate pressure with their front. Like, you hit this guy. I mean, there's a reason he took Taekwondo this off season and try to learn how to fall, because when he gets hit, he flies to the ground. He's not very big.

So that's got to be the key. For all the big boys who are now, Miami's trying to act like they're in that category, we'll see. I mean, you know, beside the weather, which, When you look at their schedule, they actually sneakie get to avoid. If you're Buffalo, you would have loved to flip the two games. You would like them to come to you December. You would want to go to Miami right now.

But regardless of the weather, like hit to a. And that's like, okay, we'll pepper you like a Mahomes or Josh Allen and can you maintain this, you know, scoring 30 on us. We'll see because I would bet no. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, Buffalo this year, one of four teams with a pressure rate of over 30 percent, and they have a bottom three blitz rate. So they don't even need to get pressure to blitz.

Yeah, they pressured Sam Houn 58% of his dropbacks last week and finish with nine sacks and barely blitzed. A lot of that is, you know, Hal's also holding the ball too long, but they should be able to get pressure. And then the Buffalo defense always under McDermott, always does a tremendous job in preventing explosive plays. It helps to have two just savvy veteran safeties in Hyden Poir back there. So Miami's going to have to work it down the field.

They're going to score. offense is too good not to, but I think Buffalo will get a couple key stops here, and Buffalo's offense should cook down the field against this Miami defense. It's not very good. If Miami loses this game, then that division's wide open, right? Buffalo has just a chance Miami to win it. If Miami does not win the division as a wild card and has to go to places like Kansas City or Buffalo, I mean, let's face it, I would not put them on that level.

Now, if they are able to win the division and get home games against them, them, then I'd give them a chance. But they are, like to me, if Kansas City was, you know, had to go on the road, like, if they're the four seed, I don't think they will be, but let's just hypothetically say, I would be, think nothing of it, right? Even Buffalo, I do believe that they could go on the row with Josh Allen. Miami, at least until we see it, like, I think they got to be the home team to have a chance come January.

Just because of the weather, I mean, historically, you fall trends, like, aren't they oh and whatever and, you know, 40 degree and below just as a franchise? because you can't manipulate that when it's 87 degrees January 3rd at practice. Yeah. Yeah, the one, I would make an exception is if they were going on the road in, you know, the NFC. Yeah, I'm talking. Buffalo, Kansas City, Cleveland. Yeah, but all the places you're going to play are outdoors.

And I see all the teams that you're going to face. You're outdoors in weather. So it's not like you're going on the road and getting to play like in New Orleans, right? Even though it's a hostile environment, you're going to fast track. Yeah, you're going to. you're going in weather and you don't have a great defense. So yeah, you want to be Miami's best shot. I agree. He's at home and winning in shootouts against the other top tier AFC quarterbacks and offenses. Yeah, they are a fun story. And this game is, this is gets his own TV type game. I can't wait.

So thanks, Ducky. So you're going, you're going Cleveland Money Line, taking the Jags bright and early in just, I don't know if I'm watching much of this game. Tags versus Atlanta. And then you're going with the smart guys taking Buffalo minus two and a half Miami. I'm going to go with Dallas minus six and a half against Belichick. And, you know, one and three start, Bill. It could get ugly in New England quick. So just like you're close to dead in the IFC. Okay, Stucky, have a good weekend.

Enjoy college football. And then like I always enjoyed the National Football League. I will talk to you next week. Absolutely. I'll root your Cowboys bed in. Let's go, boys, baby. Volume. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends.

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