The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - TNF Reaction, Huge weekend in the NFL, What's next for Caleb Williams

Episode Date: November 3, 2023

John recaps the Steelers 20-16 win over the Titans and how the Steelers have a really good defense, at this point in their early careers, would you rather have Kenny Pickett or Will Levis as your QB, and finally John takes a look around league and the huge weekend of games. Lastly, John is joined by Stucky from the Action Network. 5:30 - TNF Recap 12:00 - Pickett or Levis 15:00 - Look around the NFL 16:30 - Chiefs - Dolphins 19:30 - Bills - Bengals 23:45 - Eagles - Cowboys 36:00 - Stucky 39:15 - CFB Playoff Rankings 44:00 - Clemson-ND/Washington-USC 59:15 - TB - HOU 1:09:00 - Top two picks of the week Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest. Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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See Sportsbook.draftKings.com slash basketball terms for eligibility and deposit restrictions, terms, and responsible gaming resources. What is going on, everybody, John Middlecock, three-and-out podcast? Another Thursday night football game, and we got to. takes. Steelers beat the Titans. Pick it. I wouldn't say out duels Levis, but somehow again pulls a late fourth quarter, not super late, but a fourth quarter drive that was the difference in the game. And the Steelers, while struggling to score touchdowns on a consistent basis, are five and three because they got a really good defense. So we'll dive into that. Mike

Vrable, the Titans, as well as some of the big games this weekend. Chiefs Dolphins, Bill's Bangles, Cowboys Eagles, very, very excited for this upcoming weekend. A lot of good football games. Let's buckle up. Let's talk some football. And before we do, Middilkoff Mailbag, at John Middlecoff, keep sliding in those DMs, fire in those DMs, get your question answered here on the show.

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Okay, let's face it, I wouldn't be. call tonight the best game, as a lot of these Thursday night games are. As many of you hit me up in the DMs and the tweets, you said Al Michaels screwed up about three times within five minutes, mispronouncing names, calling first downs when they're short. Part for the course now. Love Al, legend, still a pretty rough listen. Coming off one of his better games last week, today was rough. Now, the venue, Pittsburgh at night, places rocking. If you love football, hard to not like the terrible towels. You got JJ in the house.

Let's start with the Steelers. Simply put, like, I loved them coming into this season. I thought they could compete with the AFC. They cannot. And it all comes down to their offense. Now, I don't pretend to be Bill Walsh, Mike Holmgren, or Mike Shanahan when it comes to offensive scheme. But clearly, they have enough talent, right?

With Deontay Johnson back, Pickens is just a fantastic physical freak. I'm not the biggest, not. but he's more than serviceable, especially with the young guy worn behind him. They have firepower and they struggle. Honestly, the crazy part about the Steelers and it was like this last year when they were kind of making their comeback after the very, very slow start, their quarterback can look terrible the majority of the game and then he can have a fantastic drive in the fourth quarter to ultimately win them the game.

That works against the Titans who are clearly not a playoff team, not going anywhere, despite being very competitive, despite having some, you know, kind of a random squad right now. But here's the problem. In that conference, you have to be, hell, in the division, you have two superstar players. I mean, the way Joe Burroughs looked last couple weeks, he looks like the best player in the league. Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-type season. Those guys just signed enormous deals. And your defense, I give so much respect to the Steelers.

They have been consistently able My entire life I remember a kid going to Super Bowl parties in the 90s With the Steelers And Lloyd and Kirkland and just Bill Cowr She's like just defense I didn't grow up on the steel curtain But it felt like that in the 90s

And then once they got Tomlin And the teams they built in the late 2000s In the early teens They were just so physical And they've done it again I mean they have Easily the best duo Rushing the Passer

top two or three, probably a non-quarterback in the NFL. And Highsmith, think how many teams that guy would be their best pass rusher. Minka didn't even play tonight. Hayward back. Their defense, personnel-wise, is awesome. Joey Porter, I was watching Joey Porter, Jr. tonight. And, you know, Hopkins, I think right now if he ran a 40 and I ran a 40, he'd beat me, but I don't think he'd beat me by much.

I mean, I think the guy's running a 5-0-40, and that speaks to his greatness as a wide receiver. He's never been fast, but his physicality, his ability at the point of attack. I mean, last week, one of his touchdowns, he literally grabbed the corner, threw him down. I think Bolden and Kwan was a better player, but I think they have some similar characteristics as they've been able to dominate, never being able to run, especially playing outside. It's one thing playing slot, but you can put them outside and they can still be productive. But that defense is borderline championship worthy. I mean, definitely when healthy, that is a big time, you know,

competitive defense that can take you on a run, right? But offensively, obviously you move the offensive coordinator down to the sideline. It just looks off. They've scored over 25 points this season one time. That's just not going to be good enough. How are you going to feel confident? Let's assume they don't win the division, and the Ravens do. They're going to be a, let's say they're a wildcard team.

They're going on the road, maybe to Baltimore, or maybe to Kansas City. how are you going to feel good with that offense winning a playoff game on the road, especially multiple. And this is the problem. They have the culture, the ethos as a franchise, the ability to equip their team with talented guys all over the place. Yet it feels like they're kind of running in no man's land. Right.

Like they are kind of the same team year in, year out. Like it doesn't look any different really than last year. Let's face it, some of their, wins down the stretch were low scoring games where the quarterback led them on a game winning drive. Yet they don't play very well. Like last week against watching Joe Burrow against the 49ers, start to finish. He's like, we're going to fucking eviscerate you. You watch Lamar Jackson when the Ravens are on. We are going to destroy you. And obviously both those teams do not have the defense of the Steelers. If this offense to me was just felt middle of the road, but there's a

potency, which they should have, and they show spurts of it because of how talented their wide receivers are and how explosive worn can be, but start to finish in a game that they just do not have it. Now, they are playing a team that Mike Vrable's a big time coach, man. I mean, they trade away last week. A couple weeks ago, they're team captain. Henry is, who knows how old on his last legs. Their offensive line is patchwork. They're playing with a second round rookie in his second start on a short week. and they have a chance to win the game. That franchise, I watch those two teams.

I'm like, I don't think the difference, the gap between these two teams is that wide in terms of the product on the field. Yet the Steelers have way better players, way better players. Now, I'm not trying to diminish Mike Tomlin. I think for a guy that is just the team leader, right, doesn't call the offense, doesn't call the defense, is just kind of standing there looking. A lot like Mike Brable. I just think that Mike gets his teams to over-eastern. achieve and gets more out of it consistently.

Would the team be as good if you gave Mike Tomlin a team that didn't have the talent? That's part of they have winning records all the time. Well, yeah, there are one of, if not the best drafting team in the NFL. And here's the other thing. You know, the problem is when you draft a quarterback who is not going to become a star, right? It's easy when you get, even early on if the guy struggles and you see the talent in a Josh Allen or whatever, Justin Herbert.

it's another thing when you do the Mac Jones, Kenny Pickett, and if your team's good enough, he's serviceable, but it's like that's what you're going to roll with? Like this is going to be your quarterback for the next several years? Like this is what you're dealing with? Like, let's face it, if you're a Steeler fan right now, and you could take a step back and be objective. What quarterback would you rather take for the next three years?

Will Levis or Kenny Pickett? Is it even, do you even need to think that long about it? And I'm not claiming Will Levis is going to be some top 10 quarterback. But the talent in the two guys, the gap between the arm is extremely wide. And you'd be like, well, he's got a big arm. What about the poise? Like, you watch Will Levis. It's not like he's scared back there.

It's not like he's freaking out when there's a pass rush. He showed over and over he can slide. Now, ultimately, the pick at the end of the game, you know, lost him the football game. But what was he supposed to do? I mean, they had no time out. You had to push the ball. I don't hate a pick there. And they're basically just running verticals the whole way down the field, the entire drive.

But when I watch those two quarterbacks, and you're watching one guy make a second start, and the other guy making however many starts Kenny Pickett's made now, 1520, I don't even think it's close. Like, I don't even have to think. And I'm not like pounding the table as some huge Will Levis backer. But what we saw Will Levis last week, and what we saw tonight, short week, look who he's throwing to. Hopkins can't run. Burks is, thank God, he looks okay.

It was pretty clear that when he hit his head, you know, on the, deep shot toward the end of the game. It looked like he was knocked out before he even finished rolling. But he's not a very good player. And, you know, it's hard to just hand Henry the ball over and over when they know you're going to hand it to them, right? And your passing game's not that explosive. So I, listen, I'm impressed with Will Levis.

I know they lost the game, but I also think that was very eye-opening of, like, your quarterback's not even as good as their quarterback. And we don't even know how good their quarterback is. So I think the Steelers, their problem shows it. itself basically every week, and it's going to be their downfall. They cannot score points. Their offense, despite having, sometimes when an offense struggles to score, like the, let's use the Patriots, for example.

It's like, yeah, their quarterback is average and they don't have any talent around them. So when you put that combination, well, okay, if Kenny Pickett's average, there's no disputing the talent that the Steelers have given their quarterbacks my entire life outside. They're the best wide receiver drafting organization in the league. Might not even be a close second. And I just don't see it really. And I don't see it, especially from a standard and a franchise that kind of holds themselves to these other teams that are competing to win Super Bowls because they have no shot. Honestly, I'd be surprised unless their defense scores multiple touchdowns or creates like four or five turnovers.

if this team wins a playoff game. So I think we just saw the same thing over and over with the Steelers and their offense is going to be their downfall. Let's fire around the league. I do think this week on paper is just pretty fantastic. Now sometimes you get great matchups.

Remember Sunday night football, whatever it was week five, Cowboys Niners, and the game sucks immediately. Bill's Miami Dolphins, same thing. So you never know. And sometimes random games turned out to be fantastic. but Chiefs Dolphins in Germany, Bill's Bengals and Cowboys Eagles

is just, I mean, it doesn't get much better. Let's start with the Chiefs and Dolphins. I do think there are some big nights and big days on tap for a couple coaches and a couple of quarterbacks. And when you look at the dolphins, and people for whatever reason, and again, when I say people, it might be like 10 people,

five on Twitter and five on Instagram, are always like, middle cuff, you're always shitting on the dolphins. their offensive line was missing this guy and this guy. Even when healthy, your offensive line stinks. So, like, let's not act like you got Larry Allen, Trent Williams, and Lane Johnson when healthy. Your offensive line is a major, major liability. Your offensive play caller, who's also your head coach,

has done a fantastic job, really, for two years of coaching around that and getting rid of the football quickly. But as a franchise, you know, your team, when they play lesser opponents, looks excellent. I mean, you guys last week took over in the second half against the Patriots. But you play two real teams. You got your doors blown in one game against the bills. And the Eagles thoroughly outclassed you, especially in the second half of that game. Now you're playing the Chiefs coming off a loss.

I think it's fair to say, Andy and Mahomes are going to have the boys ready. Now, a huge part of this week, I always a little uncomfortable betting. I usually stay away from these games. one, I guess in Arizona, we're on like half Pacific Standard time, half mountain time. So the clocks roll back this upcoming week, but we stay forward. So this game kicks off for me at 7.30 a.m. A lot of times when it's random games, like I'm not getting up super early to watch, you know, the Falcons play the Panthers.

Who cares? Or typically like the Jags play the Texans. Like, no one cares. But this game is awesome. And I plan on being up for kickoff. 7.30 a.m., which isn't quite 6.30. You guys have it nice on the East Coast, but I expect Andy and Mahomes to have the boys ready. Now, when it comes to the dolphins, like, if I'm going to take you seriously, and I said this last time when you played the Eagles, like, I'm not going to pick you

to win a playoff game. Like, whenever I see you against good teams, you lose. And honestly, it's not that close. So there's another opportunity, like the Eagles, like the Bills, play a team that's averaging 13, 14 wins a season that's going to Super Bowls, just look good. Hell, you don't even need to win the game. Just not be like, yeah, that was, they outclassed you. And that's happened twice now. Now, the other thing is like, oh, Jaylon Ramsey hasn't, well, he's back now.

So you got your star corner, and there's a reason, listen, I like Jaylin, have a lot of respect for any high-level corners that like to tackle. You know, most great corners aren't into tackling. And that goes back to like prime time. Now, he was so great, who cares? I wouldn't call Revis some big hitter. You know the knock on Sauce Gardner? Not really into hitting.

Jalen Ramsey will lower his shoulder and play like Richard Sherman. A lot of respect for him as a player. There was a reason he got him for a third round pick. And I know he had a pick last week against Mack Jones. A little different animal this week against Patrick Mahomes. So I think this is a big moment for Mike McDaniel and Tua to be viewed as like a real playoff contender. They've had two shots so far this season and it hasn't gone well.

really at all. So let's see, in Germany, who knows how this crowd's going to be, I don't even know what to expect, besides coming off one of their worst performances of the Andy Mahomes era, the first divisional road loss of Mahomes' career, I expect the chiefs to be ready. So this is a big, big test for the Dolphins. I'll never forget sitting in my office last year,

playoffs week two, which I would argue in theory in the playoffs, in the playoffs, or excuse me, the second round of the playoffs, the divisional round, is the best matchups year in, year out. You're getting a bunch of team that have Super Bowl ability playing each other. And we were robbed as the wrong word because of what happened to tomorrow, but the game didn't happen. So there was a lot of hype coming into this game. The Bills had been really close. The Bengals had already gotten over the hump the previous year, beating the Chiefs

and getting to the Super Bowl. The Bengals beat the shit out of the Bills. And I went back today and I looked at the boxbook, because I remember watching it thinking like, this is crazy. They are getting shoved around. And a lot of Bill's fans and a lot of people that just, they're an easy team to like.

Who doesn't like rooting for Josh Allen? Who doesn't like watching that team when they're rolling? But one knock can be, one physical run game sometimes is very hit or miss. And in that game, they got the ball ran down their throat. The Bengals ran for 172 yards. It would be like a heavyweight fighting, you know, a lightweight. It didn't even feel like the two teams belonged on the same field.

It was pretty embarrassing by the bills. When you think about their worst loss, it was a gut punch. The loss they had against the Chiefs, when the Chiefs went whatever 50 yards in the two plays. But that was just like terrible defensive play calling. Two all-time great Hall of Famers doing freaky shit. Remember like Kelsey and Tyreek were pointing at each other at the line.

That sucked. I'm not trying to advocate that you should like, you know, hold your head high after that loss. But to me, that loss was a lot different than last year. Now, if you want to say, hey, that snowstorm came, you had to go to Detroit, DeMar's situation, there was a lot going on, no doubt about it. But they made you say, Uncle. And to me, this is a big game for two guys.

One, like, what I witnessed out of Joe Burrell last week was like, motherfuckers, I'm the best player in the league. Now, I would say Patrick Mahomes is his resume. But if Joe's going to play like that, you know, this is both these two guys, right? If Mahomes is kind of entrenched based on his resume, based on the production, as the best player and best quarterback in the NFL, on a given week, it's usually one of these two guys going two three.

And I think you need Josh Allen to find a way, because let's face it, defensively, they have taken a lot of hits, right? They lose Milano, they lose Trey White, they lose Jones, they trade this week for Rasul Douglas. saw a headline today when Goudicans called him to say he was traded he thought it was like a prank

he hung up on him he didn't believe him and then I guess the president Mike Murphy called him to thank him for all of his efforts so I listen you were definitely getting a more than serviceable corner but I guess he said after him and Aaron Jones spent some time they cried together

so sometimes you never know like it is a business but sometimes if you don't think you're going to be traded It's one thing if you're Chase Young or Montes Sweat where it's kind of clear, you've been on the block for a while. It's another thing where it kind of comes out of nowhere so what you get out of this player. But I think there's a huge week for Sean McDermott who, you know, we said Leslie Frazier stepped away.

Bullshit. Leslie Frazier was fired, right? Leslie Frazier was fired. It's like Bob Myers. I'm watching the Lakers Clippers game yesterday. Bob Myers, like, I need a break from basketball. I'm worn out. I'm tired.

No, you're just tired of working for. Joe Lakeham. You don't need a break. I'm watching you call the Lakers Clippers. You're still a basketball junkie. You didn't want to leave. You just couldn't do this anymore. Like you just didn't want to be the GM of the Warriors. And there's nothing wrong with that, right? Sean McDermott fired Leslie Frazier and he took over. Well, what I saw, and maybe it was just coming off a by against the Niners, they just gave their A game. But like, if that's the version of the offense moving forward, like T. Higgins looked weird. He was banged up. It looked fantastic last week. Joe Mixin looked like

fucking Jerome Bettis last week. So this is a huge test for Sean McDermott. And to me, Josh Allen, like part of being whoever you are in your era, like Peyton Manning, Rathesburger, or when I was young, like the Farves, the Marinos, the Elways,

sometimes your team just needs you to carry you. And that's what obviously the Bengals need with Joe Burrow, and that's what the bills need with Josh Allen. So I can't wait to watch this game. I love watching these two quarterbacks. I think there's a ton of pressure on the bills. Now obviously from a record standpoint, because they started slow, the Bengals can't really afford some else, right? So this is also a big game for them.

I can't wait. And then the other game is Eagles Cowboys. I'll say this. When Dallas, when they get momentum, and they've done it three or four times this year against the Giants, they did it last week against the Rams. They beat the living piss out of you. They did it one other game was the Jets. When they're scoring defensive touchdowns, when they're scoring special teams touchdowns, they look like a college team. They're all dancing in the end zone.

You got no clue who's scoring. It's like dudes blocking punts. Dude's returning safeties. Like, you know, the safety punt for 40. It looks awesome. And that's not usually how it looks when you play other good teams. And there was so much hype

coming into that 49er game where it's like, listen, Dallas might not win the game But if you just lose 28 to 24 And you just go 12 rounds You're like listen a lot of respect for you But they got destroyed So now same type deal

Playing the Eagles and you can be like Well Dax played the Eagles really well Yeah there is a tangible pressure right now on this team I think all like if the Eagles lose this game Whatever they've proven last year Blew out the Giants knocked out Purdy Could have easily won the Super Bowl They clearly look like the most talented team in the NFC.

Now, the question with Jalen and the knee injury is definitely a valid concern, but it hasn't really heard them this year so far. When's the last time Mike McCarthy had a win where you're like, hell yeah. Like, hell yeah, that's our coach. That's our guy. He kind of needs one of those. And this would be huge. I think there is, and Dax's played a lot better these last couple weeks.

I thought that charger game for the first time this season in a game that was tight showed some life I'll never forget the driver he scrambled through it to Pollard later the touchdown to Cooks like when he's a playmaker I think the Cowboys are pretty dangerous now the Eagles I think top to bottom

more and more talented but we say this all the time hell we were talking about it with the Patriots divisional games I don't care if you're an undefeated team or a team that hasn't won you are not intimidated by the other team's players you are used to playing all those guys, right? Like Micah Parsons knows

Milatu, the Australian left tackle, and Lane Johnson, the strengths and the weaknesses, right? No different than C.D. Lamb knows their corners. Vice versa, too. So you are very comfortable playing the team. I think just a ton of pressures on the Cowboys. And this would be, like,

I don't know if they'd get that much credit for a tight game, right? Because then the Eagles would have a multi-game lead. But all of a sudden you win this game, and you have the same amount of losses as Philly. You're going to start, I pick the Cowboys. I tried to be bold at the beginning of the season just to win this division. And then obviously after that Arizona game, I was like, God, is this team gritty enough? Like, there's a grit sometimes when you watch them.

And sometimes it's as simple as, like, some of their bad losses, DAC just throws awful turnovers, right? Throws awful interceptions. To me, if DAC doesn't turn over the ball, my question for this team, like, are they gritty enough? Can they get into a game that's 1717 going into the fourth quarter and win against a team that could easily win the Super Bowl? Because if they can, then I do think you got to like, okay, I take this team seriously. Because if you just take some of their blowout wins, their ceiling, and I understand these teams are shitty,

but the way in which they can just overwhelm you, they definitely have the talent, right? They have the explosion on offense. Defensively, if they can get a little lead, their pass rush is just so daunting. their coordinator on defense is elite in Dan Quinn. So I think all the pressures on the Cowboys, and I think McCarthy, even more than Dak, I mean, let's face it, Dak has had some big wins over the course of his career.

Like, when's McCarthy truly won a big game as the Cowboys at coach? Definitely not in the playoffs. I'm sorry, I'm not counting a god-awful Tampa Bay team in the wildcard round. And last but not least, bold take of the week brought to you by Guinness. A couple weeks ago after the Trojans, the USC Trojans, got blown out by Notre Dame. Acho, Emmanuel Acho, threw out a take that Caleb Williams should quit, should stop playing. Like, what's he playing for? Even though at the time, they hadn't lost a Pac-12 game.

And then the following week, they lose to Utah to a third string, pig farming quarterback that if you watch the Oregon game is not a very good player. He had been benched multiple times this season. They are still alive to represent the conference as one of the two teams in the Pac-12. And it started last year and it's happening again. It's not represented by forever, a lot like the Big Ten was represented by divisions. The South play the North. Now they just take the two best teams. USC is playing Washington at home. And then

the following week they have Oregon. And then they finish with their rival UCLA. They're going to be underdogs, obviously, in all three games. If they win this game, next week against Oregon, is a massive game. Because Oregon, like USC, both have one conference loss, and the winner of that game would be in great position, obviously, to represent the conference in the Pac-12 championship game against another one or two lost team. And to me, if USC loses this game, and I don't know, I didn't watch any of it. I just was falling on my phone. because I don't have the Pact 12 network anymore because of YouTube TV,

the Trojans easily could have lost, I mean easily could have lost, to a below-average Cal football team. The final score is 50 to 49. Cal went for two to win the game. Terrible play call, but if they would have got two, they would have lost. And I do think there was a chance that Caleb Williams

would not have played anymore. I do believe my bold take of the week is if they lose to Washington, which they easily could, I got news for you, I'm going to take the Huskies, that Caleb Williams will not play anymore for USC. Now, when Emmanuel Ocho threw the takeout, I thought it was crazy, because they still had a lot on the line. I will defend him if he stops now.

The next game would be at Oregon. It would suck as a fan. I wouldn't want him to, but I do understand from a business perspective, the team's imploding, the season is over, he's not going to play in the bowl game. What's the point of playing Oregon and UCLA, two really good defenses where he could get injured? He has a lot of money on the line.

Some of these takes, the more and more I've thought about it is like he could return to school. Is the dumbest fucking take in the history of takes. Even if USC could round up $10 million to pay the guy, when you are drafted number one overall, you sign a $37-38 million contract and get a $27 million signing bonus. So the money is not comparable. Your clock also starts to get your second contract.

But I do think my bold take of the week is If the Trojans lose this week to Washington Who obviously have, you know, The road to the playoff is well in front of them This will be Caleb Williams' last game As a collegiate quarterback. I will defend them if that is the case. So that's my bold take of the week.

Brought to you by Guinness, Gather your friends, raise your glasses, toast to win. Guinness draft stout Imported by Diageo Beer Company USA, New York, New York, please drink responsibly. Don't miss the action this weekend

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premium and NFL Plus, premium monthly retail plan prices. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's

superhuman documented it all. Embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger, than I ever imagined.

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double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the look back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill,

waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. So, Thank you for finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah.

For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, back at it again. Week, eight or nine, depending on if you're falling college or the pros, a little combination of it both. We're in early November, though. This weather's turning, it's getting cold. Time to play some real football. My main man Stucky from the Action Network,

one of the original creators. I'm one of the greatest apps you'll ever see when it comes to gambling. And you can hear them on Big Betts on campus. You can find him on Twitter, tweeting away. We got Matchen midweek. Now we've got normal NFL coming up. We're recording this before the Thursday night game, and obviously big college weekend.

then Sunday NFL. Stucky, what's cracking, bro? What's going on? You said eight or nine. It's week nine or ten. Somehow it's already in college football, which is crazy. I don't know how we've already got here. But yeah, it's an amazing weekend of football.

Just college, there's a ton of marquee games from start to finish. Just look at the night. You got LSU, Alabama and Washington, USC going head to head. And that's just one of the many great games that are on all day. And then Sunday we have a treat. It's like, look, there's a ton of games with horrible. I think it could be up to 10 backup quarterbacks playing between tonight or between Thursday and Sunday. But there's four really good games starting at 9.30 in the morning on the East Coast all the way through Sunday night football.

And back to back to back, chiefs, dolphins, Ravens Seahawks, Cowboys Eagles, Bals, all, you know, 15. 15 hours with your backups and bad quarterback play mixed in. I'm sure some of those games will be intriguing, but just an awesome weekend of water-to-wall football. I can't wait. Okay, before we dive into the National Football League, college is kind of taking shape. You know, the final four, the original one came out yesterday with obviously Oregon and Washington tailing, and clearly because they're going to play each other.

Ohio State and Michigan have to play each other. Jim McElwain, former Fresno, state offensive coordinator. I wouldn't say cot red-handed. He's denying, but it's pretty clear when you look at his connection with Harbaugh, with our Marine. Thank you for your service, who's pretty dominant at stealing sides. Ultimately, I wish this story didn't exist because this is just an incredible college

football season at the top. I think all these teams can win it. The problem is, I'm sure you saw the story, the Big Ten coaches call, and I don't blame the other coaches for being pissed off. You just have to wonder, a lot of these scandals, right, always are delayed. So we'll find out in a year what's going to happen to Michigan.

They'll get a bull ban or whatever. It does feel like there's going to be a lot of urgency to do something quick from the conference. And it's going to be fascinating how that, because I would say from a title contention perspective, most people would say Michigan's the best team right now. How do you think this shakes out? yeah i mean the the conference angle is the most interesting to me the nca works so slow like a local

bureaucracy they're fucking idiots yeah uh so that there's not going to be any impact from that perspective and yeah i mean michigan's the favorite in the big 10 for a reason like next week there's a line already out for the pet like they're five and a six point favorites at penn state uh and i host ohio state and uh yeah it's it'll be really fascinating to see. Ultimately, I don't think anything's going to come of it. Until it's too late and Harbaugh's gone and then

it'll, Michigan program will then take a hit. We saw this with USC for other reasons Penn State, for other reasons Arizona State. We've seen this before and then your program takes it. But everyone that was actually involved in it is gone. They get other jobs.

Harbaugh is probably, you know, coaching the Raiders or the Bears and he's out. So, I don't think it'll end up having any impact on this year, but the conference angle, if the other teams raised enough stink, I don't know. I'm not too in tune with the process season timing there, but that's the only thing that's going to happen because the NCAA is not going to do anything in time before everyone's gone, and then it's a big bowl ban, and then you have a couple of hours.

Yeah, I think the only question, I think the only question mark right now is, because clearly if you're Michigan, whether they end up taking this away from you or not, you want to play this thing out and win the thing this year. Now, there could, you know, depending on the, you know, the fervor from everyone else around the conference, do they force something to happen, you know, fire him. I do, and I've always supported, I thought the Belichick thing was a little overrated SpyGate, even this at first. But the more you see how intense and the levels in which they were going, I saw some

unnamed coaches and they're right. Like, it's one thing to steal signs. it's another thing to literally know all of our plays are either run or pass. Like this isn't even real football and it's like, yeah, which sucks because like Harbaugh, for all these years finally built up these last couple years, what we hoped Michigan would become. And now it feels like it's all going to stop. And like you said, maybe he was inevitably going to go to the NFL anyway.

But if he was just rattling, if he won this national championship, Georgia style, you'd be like, well, they could pay him 12, 13, 14 million dollars a year. Maybe he just stays there and tries to win a couple. And now that feels, this feels like the last couple months of his Michigan tenure for sure. Yeah. My two main questions, this will all eventually come out, I imagine, is from a betting perspective, now I have no, like it's very hard for me to rate Michigan, like how much of their success. Have you gambled on Michigan a lot over the last couple years?

Yeah, I mean, I bet against them twice this year and lost. I was joking with a friend of mine who is an odds maker out in Las Vegas. And I was like, can I get a refund here for some of these bets when I pay to Michigan? But so, yeah, like how much of that influenced their results? And so that's very tough for me to gauge. So for now, I think I'm mainly just like staying away from Michigan games. But the other thing is like, where did this idea come from? So like, was, how a widespread is this?

So we know that every team does this in some form or fashion. but are other teams sending guys and like does this come from another team and like is this actually more prevalent than we think right as far as like going to the lengths that michigan did how much how many of the other top programs are going to those lengths i don't i don't think anyone is being that extreme but maybe they are i mean we didn't know about michigan until just now so that's something i'm curious about like what are some of the other teams doing and to what extent um and then from a betting perspective like just for now i It's very difficult for me to gauge Michigan games because it's just impossible to quantify what the actual impact is. Okay, a couple of big games, obviously, Clemson, who sucks relative to what they've been. Dabble has been pissed off playing Notre Dame. SC, who easily could have lost to the California Golden Bears last week. I mean, that running back had like 150 yards and three touchdowns 15 minutes into the game. I mean, their defense is even, even.

worse than I think the way we were hyping it up. And now they play Washington. Probably, you can argue, the most explosive offense in all of college football. So let's start with there. I mean, the line is not that big. I got Washington minus three. I feel like, I don't know. I mean, obviously, Caleb, they can score, but it feels like there's a chance.

Is this a 60 to 40 type game? The total is 78. So that'll tell you all you need to know about this. game. I got bad news for you, or if anyone cares what I think. I played both Clemson and USC after I've done nothing but fade Clemson and USC except for that Utah game when you were right. Swore them off. I faded them last week against Cal again. I've been fading Clemson for all year. But I took them both plus three and a half. I had to. I mean, my number is just called for it. It's number one with Clemson plus three and a half at home against Notre Dame. I mean, they were plus one and a half at home against Florida State.

three weeks ago, and should have won. And Dabo, Dabo is right where they're not getting killed. I mean, they could have won a lot of these swing games. They could be six and two pretty. They could be eight, no, if you like, really, like, they could have be a Florida state. They lost in overtime. They lost to Miami in overtime. You know, they out gained NC State by about 300 yards.

They held them to 180 yards and lost that game by seven. So, yeah, I mean, they've lost. Duke game, they got outplayed, but they did turn the ball over. They also were in the red zone, you know, 50 times and kept fumbling it. They lead the nation in fumbles. Their defense is still really good. They have a running back that got hurt and Will Shipley. I think that's a good thing.

You get more Mafa, who's the better back. He's also the better pass blocker. The defense is still elite. Notre Dame, I mean, look, this is Notre Dame that went on the road, got crushed by Louisville, should have lost at Duke. And now, I mean, this line is, I just can't get here with this Clemson team. You also have to remember Notre Dame. They just lost their star tight end, who was playing out of his mind.

their leading receiver, Mitchell Evans. He's out for the season. He got hurt last week. That's a big loss for them. He was a security blanket for Sam Hartman. But this is just a classic buy, low, sell high spot. I had to take the three and a half. At three, it's Clemson or nothing.

So, yeah, it's certainly been unlucky. They're on the downtrend because they're just not as talented anymore because they don't hit the transfer portal like other teams. And Davo refuses to adjust. Maybe a season like this gets them to do it. It will. It will. Yeah, he has to.

Otherwise, they're just going to fall way behind. You can just look at the receivers. That's the biggest thing. The receiving talent is just, I mean, this is a program that had as dudes that are killing it in the NFL. Now there's nothing there. And you just compare it to their top teams. Florida State has went out and got a guy from Michigan State who's going to get drafted and first or second round.

He's killing it for them at receiver like that. So it's crazy that they're not using it. And that's why they're taking a step back. but plus three and a half against another name have to take it USC I had to take it I mean I hated myself when I hit when I bet it but this Washington team is uh is kind of broken if you look over the past month they should have lost to Arizona State if Arizona State had a kicker at it and they had basically a Mac kicker they missed a couple fuel goals then instead of going up six with you know eight minutes to go they they don't they don't even trust a kicker to make a 30 yarder they throw a 90 yard pick six in that game Washington even score an offensive touchdown. Then Washington almost like last week against Stanford, there's a couple problems going on with Washington.

They can't run the ball. I mean, last week they were Arizona State, they ran it 13 times for 13 yards. Last week against Stanford, one of the worst rush defenses in the country. They ran it 27 times for 90 yards. Their interior offensive line is struggling. They've been rechuffling guys. Even their receivers, like the offense isn't clicking the same way it was during the season. You have two really good receivers, but McMillan.

You know, one of your other depth guys, they're hurt. And the defense has fallen off a cliff because you have injuries. And they just don't have a lot of depth. They don't have the depth of Georgia. They don't have the depth of, you know, Alabama. And they've lost, they have their best defensive lineman Tully. He's been out for a month. He's huge.

They have three or four, Turner, Camphab, a couple of the guys that are hurt at safety. So they're down to like third string safeties that are playing. So the depth of that defense is taking a huge hit, and they can't really stop it. When you go back to that Oregon, and they should have lost Oregon at home, Oregon just went 0 for three and four downs, and then Washington had that last minute touchdown. But this is the team that's treading in the wrong direction. Are they going to score against, you know, on this USC defense at will? Yes, of course.

Everyone depends. I mean, we just will take you, me, producers. We'll find, you know, we'll just walk on the street and find the next seven, you know, men, women, or children. And it doesn't matter. We'll put 11 together and we'll score. score. One saving grace for USC is that Washington does not run the ball at all, and they can't run it. So the USC pasty is like semi respectable. They have some, you know, decent pass rushers, and then they have some talented guys in the secondary. They can't tackle and they cannot play the run. Like, it doesn't matter who's running against them.

And Jade Knott's a really good back for Cal. You saw him running wild. You saw Utah running wild. But Washington doesn't really run it. So like from a matchup standpoint, you might be able to get a, a couple stops just from your debats making plays or getting a sack because Washington's not just doesn't run it and they can't when they do but ultimately I know I make this number just like I make this closer to a coin flip because Washington's trending in the wrong direction I think they're a bit overrated what would the narrative be if they actually lost Oregon if they actually lost Arizona state as they should have like they'd be right in the conversation with USC as though their defense is overrated and they can score so I took the three and a half ultimately what I think happens I mean

this is a must-see TV game. It's just bad. Whoever has the ball last. So I'll take the three and a half with the home team. It's pretty clear. Once Washington pulled off, I don't want to call it an upset, but once they beat Oregon, the two teams since,

I mean, Oregon looks dramatically better, right? I mean, Oregon, I mean, they killed Utah. Beside, like, the first couple drives, they handled Washington State, who was playing pretty well at the time. I mean, Oregon looks fantastic. And I was watching a lot of that Stanford game. Stanford was like a drop pass away from potentially upsetting them.

Kind of late in that game. So I'm with you there. Oregon's class the Pac-12. They're the most complete team. I mean, they could win the national championship. Like to me, they could play with some people for sure.

I mean, they're physical. They got skill guys, team speed, their quarterback. More starts than any other. He's played more college games than any of the player in college football history. Now,

skewed because you get the free year. But, Yeah, they have enough balance. Washington, I don't think that has the balance or depth. Oregon has the defense. They also have the running game with Bucky Irving. He's might be the number one running back taking the next year's draft. So Oregon, I think, is the most complete team of fact 12. They're the team that has the best shot of winning the national title from that conference. My pig farmer quarterback came back to Earth against Utah, but he played well when he needed to. Okay, before we get into your picks, the game that

jumped out to me, and I know everyone, I'm sure you have stats of the interim coach, the first game wins. You know, I think last year was it Saturday against the Raiders? You just, you know, it happens. It's a tried and true formula. But I think this Raider team, it's pretty clear that when Mark Davis fired everybody on Tuesday, it'll come out over time. But I wonder if a big sticking point is Josh McDaniels was anti, like Aiden O'Connell played in the one game. game. He got sack like 75 times. Even Khalil Mack said, who had six sacks in the game. It wasn't all me. The guy was holding on to the ball. It's kind of easy. So I think Josh thinks this guy, listen, this is not, he even said, this is not the preseason. I'm not defending Josh. I think he's

terrible. But I do think they thought this quarterback had no chance out there, despite Jimmy playing poorly. I just don't, I think it could be very, very tough. And say what you want about the giant. Their defense has played very well. Daniel Jones is back. But at any moment, that neck gets re-injured. We got to reinsert. DeVito, which would immediately be a problem, even against the Raiders who have like one good player on defense. Antonio Pierce was, you know, pretty fired up at the press conference, saying now he's from Compton and all this stuff.

But they fired their offensive coordinator. They also fired their head coach who called the plays. So they got a lot of moving parts here. I don't know. I just think the Raiders, maybe you get a little extra effort, but the Giants have been playing really hard too. And they're not just tapping out yet on the season. I just like the Giants plus one and a half in this game.

Yeah, it's Giants or nothing. I mean, if you go back, what, last 20, 20 seasons in the NFL, interim coaches, so after firing coach in season, they are, their very next game that week. They are 16 and 13 against the spread, but they're 13 and 16 straight up. A lot of times you're getting these teams that are big underdogs, right? Why do they fire their coach? Because they're horrendous, right? 10-point underdog or whatever.

Yeah, this is way different story because, you know, they're, they're favored. And they also have a backup quarterback. They also fired their office coordinator in addition to it. So, yeah, I think it's, it can only work against them. Sometimes it's like there's the element of surprise. Let's switch some things up. But I also think Devante Adams might have had some influence in this and talking with Mark Davis after last week. 100%. Yeah, he definitely got in there and said stuff. But yeah, it's giants or nothing here. Yeah, the fear is like if Jones is out and you got DeVito, you're cooked. But

even if like you know like the raiders offenses isn't great they can't i mean they can't score more they only scored more than 20 once and that's because they got a safety on like the final play against mac jones and so they can't score what the raiders defense is doing and you're you said it the giant stees playing well what the raiders defense is doing this year is max crosbie's a stud and that's it that's all they have so the defensive coordinator who's very good they're basically just dropping everybody and they're saying you're not going to get any explosive plays on us that's why they i mean they're i think every one of their game is going under. You're not going to get any

explosive plays on us. We're just going to come up, make tackles, make you go, you know, 12, 15 plays, and then we're going to try to get a stop in the red zone, or we're going to force you in a mistake. But that doesn't, who cares against the Giants? The Giants don't have any explosiveness. So the Giants are happy to dink, give it to Barclay. You can run all day on this Raiders D.

So I think it's a good matchup for the Giants because the Raiders want to take away your explosive plays. The Giants don't have any explosive plays. And their D is playing well. I agree with the era. It's giants or nothing. Okay, let's go far, far across the pond. This game on paper is pretty sweet.

Obviously, the Chiefs coming off. Probably the ugliest, one of the ugliest games in the Mahomes era. Definitely when you factor in, he never lost a road divisional game. Five turnovers, I would imagine the history of the league, when you lose the turnover battle by four, you're going to lose 99.9% of those. games. Now you're playing the

Dolphins who that game was close against the Patriots. I liked where you were at and then just Mac Jones turned into Mac Jones again. But to me these international morning games when they're two even

teams, it's pretty easy to me when you get the better team. But like we saw Jags, Bills, two teams are going to be in the playoffs. To me they can be hard to figure out sometimes. The dolphins went they're already there. The chiefs aren't going, were they flying out today? I don't know.

I don't feel great handicapping these when I got two teams that are going to win 11 to 13 games that fly at different times. Harbaugh went for the whole week and he was outspoken that that was a huge benefit. Now he was, granted, he was playing the Titans at the time who weren't playing as well as they did with Will Levis. But I don't know. I don't have a great feel for these morning international games. Yeah, this, look, there is.

You factor that in at all? Like the travel? Of course. I look at the travel. We still don't have a huge data set. And different teams still are doing different things. So, like, you know, and these are NFL teams. They're all looking into this. So I don't know if there's definitely one answer. But to me, like, the later you go, the worse it is from like just some of the stuff that I've read. But it's still, it's still up in there. I don't know if it's a huge impact. But look, look, this is very similar to me. I mean, on the surface, look, the dolphins, they're like always the shiny new toy.

they beat, I mean, look, they beat six clowns on the year. There were six wins. I mean, they beat the Pats twice, and they were close games until the end. They beat the Giants with their entire backups. Panthers entire secondary didn't play. The Broncos before they fixed their defense, and then the Chargers in the opener, they won by two. Like, that's who they did, no one with a winning record.

And then they stepped up in class twice. They got blown out by the Eagles, blown out by the bills. And then these are two top five offenses. The difference is if you look by metricly, the Chiefs have the top five defense as a whole. I mean, they held the Broncos last week, three and a half yards per play. The Dolphins are outside the top 20. They're getting better. Fangio will get it figured out.

They're just, the Chiefs, some, is better than their parts. And they're well coached. They know the scheme. The Dolphins, some, is not as good as their parts yet. You know, like you're getting Ramsey back. It will be. Vanjue, it's a very complex day. So they're still not there yet.

Their defense still isn't great, and they played a laughable schedule. and you could see the issues on their defense whenever they've stepped up. And special teams, Chiefs' top five special teams unit, Dolphins bottom five. Their special teams are horrible. So special teams and defense, you get the edges of the Chiefs. But I could throw all that out. I mean, basically, I told you this to the Super Bowl last year against the Eagles. You have the best quarterback on the planet,

and you can bet him to basically just win the game. I mean, I don't care if he loses or loses. I'm going to take that opportunity every single time. If you go back and look, Patrick Holmes in his career, he's 19, including the postseason, 19, 6 and 1 against the spread as an underdog or favorite of a field goal or less, whenever you just need him to win the game. So, like, I don't care what happens this entire game. I mean, I think that's going to play out. Chees will probably step up in the red zone. They might force two is more likely to make them a key mistake.

But no matter of how to play out. That's the best way to look at it. Just basically I'm betting on this guy to win the game. Like he would paint Manning or Tom Brady for 20 years. Yep, to win this game. And anytime, the same thing was with Brady and Manning. Whenever you had them under a field lawyer as an underdog, free money. So you're going to lose a couple of these every once in a while.

But I'm taking it. And look, the Dolphids are scoring like 80%. 80% of their red zone drives are ending in touchdowns. That's an insane pace. And they played horrible defenses with injuries for the most part. There'll be some regression there. Chiefs are at 50. So this is a team that's usually leading the league around 70.

So there could be some red zone variance that works in the Chief's favor here. But it should be a good game. These are two of the best teams in the NFC. She's a little better defense right now, a little better special teams. And you have the best quarterback on the planet. You're the lay one. So, yeah, I'm not overthinking it. Okay.

it was a cute little early story. They started, I think, 3 and 0. Maybe it was 2 and 1, but they definitely were 3 and 1. Is Baker Mayfield resurrected in his career? He had called Tampa. Like, I want to come there. And he's really come back to Earth. I think he looks fucking God-awful these last several games.

He looks just like a backup, like a guy that if you had to play a game, but the more and more he plays, he gets worse and worse. Playing the Texans, who I'd say had a pretty bad loss against the Carolina Panthers. But they're getting Tampa at home. Now Tampa's coming off a long week because they played last Thursday night. I just think this Tampa team is kind of like the Rams now

with Stafford hurt. I'm just picking them to lose basically every week. Yeah, they, I like the Texans here at Under a Field goal. The bucks are, you know, who we thought they were. Dennis Green Boys. Penny Green Boys. The, yeah, legend. And look, the bucks, the bucks, what they do well is their run-dees pretty good.

Houston can't really run it this year at all. And the Texans have been, I think, better than expected. Stroud, still a rookie, is going to have some ups and downs. I think it'll play better at home. But they're three and two over their past five. Their two losses came by two points. And the bucks, what they're doing this year, they're blitzing as always under tie bowls.

They're getting no pressure. And that's bad news against Stroud. Stroud under pressure this year, 87 dropback. no touchdowns, no interceptions, no big time throws, four turnover worthy plays, a 60 quarterback rating. When he has a clean pocket, 177 dropbacks, nine touchdowns, one interception, seven big time throws, one turnover where they play, 110 quarterback rating. And this is what everyone knew in college, is that if he has a clean pocket, I mean, this guy's money and he can make all the throws. A little shaky when you could rattle him with pressure. He's also been good against the Blitz

when he knows the blitz is coming, he can just get rid of the ball quick. So this is a good matchup at home for Stroud because the Bucks just aren't generating any pressure, even though they're trying to blitz a lot. Mayfield, who's always been bad against pressure, actually has some decent pressure numbers. He has some regression coming that way. He's also not healthy. He's dealing with a knee injury. And yeah, I think that these two defenses, and look, and the Texans have dealt with a ton of injuries all year. So I think they're a little better than the, you know, some people might realize because Stroud's really good. Their offensive line, I mean, this was a team that was playing with four backup

offensive linemen with a third stringer in there, too. They had, they were decimated. Now their offensive line's finally healthy. You know, and you're talking new staff, new scheme. So there's going to be some ups and downs, but they also had both their safeties out. And Petrie, who I love, Jimmy Ward. They were both out for multiple weeks. You're playing with backup, safety's backup corners.

So this team's dealt with a lot of injuries, basically as healthy as they've been in a while now. So these defenses are close to on par. The buck's defense, it's solid, but it's getting older. They can't really generate pressure. So these defenses are kind of close. So I'll happily take Stroud and what I think is a favorable matchup who basically just needs to win this game against Baker Mayfield. He's probably going to make a couple of key mistakes here.

He's not fully healthy. And I think the Texans get a nice home win. I'm a little shocked they did into a little fire sale of just trying to trade. you know, the receivers, maybe even, I know, V-to-Va-Va. What's Evan still doing that? Yeah, but even Devin White, just throw some players, just put them on the market and just see what you could get. Who knows?

I mean, what if you get a bunch of second-round picks? You're going to blow this thing up. I bet half those guys won't be on the team within the next 18 months anyway, so you might as well, and, you know, some of the times these GMs are going, well, they're still looking at it, the division, like, your team stinks. You're not going to the playoffs. The other thing that really crystallized to me last week is the Saints have, and I've been thinking this all,

have zero business to not win this division. If they don't win the division, you immediately fire the coach, and I'm sorry all the Derek Carr haters were right, because they should cruise to this division by several games, especially now with the Atlanta quarterback situation kind of getting weird. Okay, I mean, this is probably one, we knew coming into the season,

whenever these two teams play, it's going to be one of the games of the year. They're both playing well coming into this game. Obviously, Jalen played well statistically last week, but it's pretty evident that he's kind of running with a little like limp. I mean, it just doesn't quite look right physically, but he's not one to kind of, he's not LeBron here, bitching and moan about his injury,

so he never quite know what's going on. But the Eagles, talent-wise, with AJ Brown, they look fucking unreal. Defensively, Reddick is playing like he's Nick Bosa or T.J. Watt right now coming off the edge. and the Cowboys just had one of their class of games where pick six, blocking field goals, returning safeties, punts for 50 yards.

When they do that, they just annihilate you. I don't think this game's going to look like that, so when they get into a real game, how can they play? They're a hard team to figure out because I would say their highs, now they've come against shittier opponents, have been just, I mean, NFL style. It looks like college.

It's like when Ohio State or Michigan plays the Rutgers are, they destroy them. And then you get into these kind of, like the last couple years in these playoff games, they just don't look the same, right? Look at last year, the Tampa game. Now, I understand Tampa was terrible, but you watch that cowboy game, you're like, God, this team has a ceiling to, like, win the Super Bowl.

And then you watch them the next week, it's like they can barely get first downs. So it just, it's hard for me to trust the Cowboys, despite a team that, like, of all the teams that are in, like, the top seven or eight that we consider, they're high-end sometimes can look like the bills, the Chiefs, the 49ers. Yet when then they play one of those teams, they don't look like that again.

So this one's hard for me. Though, anytime you get these divisional games, the players are comfortable playing. I don't care how big of a star as you have. It's not like they're going to be intimidated. And that bland guy for the Cowboys, man, he's a stud. Yeah, and just to close a loop on that other point, I agree with you, the Saints and some of these NFC teams, like the Washington sold because they're like, oh, we have the Cowboys and Eagles.

We can't catch them. But some of these other NFC teams, they got to just let the pipe dream go, even though they're in a bad division. I mean, Mike Kevin's going to be a free agent, get something for him. But anyway, yeah, I like the Cowboys. I like the Cowboys Plus Three here. John, I got to tell you, this is a painful weekend for me. I just told you, I bet Clemson, USC, things I've been clowning for years. The Cowboys, who I hate in these step-up games, they just seem like soft in a way.

But, yeah, the divisional games, they're comfortable with Dak has owned the Eagles historically. the home field advantage isn't as great, even though like it's going to be a raucous habit. You're familiar with going there. You're familiar with playing in these loud stadiums, the venues, where you're sleeping, where you're staying. So the home field advantage isn't great. But there's a lot of things that I like about the Cowboys.

I was off this team after the 49ers game. And I told you this, Jack's not running. He's not moving. And I think that he was just afraid after his injury. Well, he is the past. He's played a lot better. He's played a lot better since. He's also, I mean, he's number one in the NFL and EPA.

over the past three weeks among all quarterbacks. He's running. Like he had 12, I think over the first six weeks, he had 11 rushing attempts total over the past two. He's at 13 and he didn't even need to run the second X. They were blowing out the ramps. He's also moving a little bit more. But the play calling, I don't know what got in to McCarthy, but he, you know, and he talked about this. But over the past two weeks, they're using a lot more motion and they're throwing on first downs. And that's what they need to do. I mean, they were just running into walls on first down, so many first down runs, second down runs. But they finally are starting to throw on first down. Easy throws, getting the ball out quick. And that's how you have to beat the Eagles. You neutralize the pressure. You get the

ball out quick, quick pass. Because their past defense isn't any good. I mean, I haven't rated 18. And they have no slot corner. So you see the land's going to line up in the slot all day long. They have no one who can cover him. I mean, maybe you've got to bring one of your wide corners in. But he should have a favorable matchup inside. So I, love how this offense has evolved over the past few weeks. Something happened during the by. Someone got to them because they're throwing on first downs. They're using a lot more motion, ghost motion. Their offensive line's also getting healthy. You should get Tyrant Smith back. Tyler Smith's playing it at all pro level. They were dealing with some injuries earlier in

the season. They still have a really good center. Like their offensive line when healthy is is right there with the Eagles. But the defense also has been. So it was a question mark after you lose dakes at one corner spot. And it took them some time to kind of figure it out and settle into their roles. And you mentioned Duran Bland. He's playing really well. And this is a team that's going to play a lot of man coverage, which is there's a couple of things that are scary about this with the Cowboys.

Like I think that Dow's going to have success on offense against an overrated Philly defense right now. That's dealing with some injuries. I mean, look, this Eagles team, by the way, they have one loss, but they're four and one-and-one possession games. And they've had some turnover luck against the Vikings, you know, the Pats. they were out game by like 200 yards. They barely beat the commanders twice. It hasn't been that pretty.

And hurts can't run the ball. So like that takes a huge, he has a hurt knee. They're not calling design runs. He can't take off as well. That, I mean, against the Dallas pressure, that's massive. It also just takes an element out of the Philly offense that just makes them so much more dangerous. Now, they're going to play a lot of man in the Cowboys. AJ Brown's been eating man up.

So maybe he'll have, you know, three touchdowns again. But this Dallas defense is evolving. they've adjusted to life without digs. You even take a guy like Marquis Bell. This is a guy who's an undrafted free agent. If you go by PFF, he's the highest-graded linebacker in the entire NFL. Small sample lives, but he's playing extremely well. He's an upgrade over Layton Vanderash, who's hurt.

So they've had some guys that have filled in. They figured out their roles. Their defense is playing really well. Their offense is actually throwing on first down. Dax moving. So they look like a completely different team. I think the Eagles are a bit overrated. rated and they have the Hertz injury, you have the slot corner injury, you have a vulnerable

pasty up in the middle of the field. So, yeah, I think that this is, I think that these two teams on a neutral field, if you gave them, the Eagles are probably tougher, but they're close. And home field advantage isn't three points, especially in a divisional game. I'm going to take the field goal here. I have a sneaky suspicion the Cowboys win this game and make the NFC East race a bit more interesting. Yeah, that would be, I mean, their biggest win in a long time.

Especially, it would feel like, God, do they have a chance to, especially now with home field. You know, the Lions aren't dead. A couple other games, obviously, the bills at Cincinnati, I mean, Joe Burrell looked fantastic the other night. I mean, the bills trade for, they needed a corner. And then the Monday night game, you know, the Chargers, obviously the Bears, fucking blow. But the Jets just playing the ugliest games imaginable. It's like, can they function with Zach Wilson? I haven't checked on the weather Monday night.

I mean, that game was a monsoon, but somehow the Jets win that all of a sudden. They're five and three. That'd be one of the most incredible accomplishments to be a five and three team with that level of offense over, you know, basically the entire season I've ever seen. Yeah, they want to ugly up games, which they've done. Like, they stole that Eagles game. They stole that Giants game somehow. To me, the Eagles game, they got lucky. They should have just, the Eagles should have called run after run after run after run.

and because the corners were out, they just kept forcing the pass. It's like, guys, you're up 14 to 3, lean on these guys. These guys aren't built, they don't have Sam Adams and Tony Saragusa in there. They're built to stop the pass, even with their corners out.

And the Eagles kind of played right in their hands, and then Jaylen was off. Like, that was a bad Eagles loss more than it was an impressive jet's win. Agreed. I would say the same of the Giants last week. I mean, you needed the Giants to, you know, is hurt. You're kicking field goals.

I mean, just go get one yard. And the Giants lost that game, even though they had negative. five yards passing whatever it was. So the Jets have certainly been lucky. But like the charters are a team that'll go out outdoors and like lose this game. So like these are two competing forces. I'm probably staying away from that.

Bill's Bengals, I think, is a sneaky over. I know all these primetime games have been going under. But this total 48 and a half, I'll tell you that last year these two teams were, you know, they were supposed to meet before the Hamlin thing and then they met in the playoffs. The totals in those games and the playoffs, there was weather. We're 48 and a half. now because of like the suppressed

suppressed scoring, it's 48 and a half again. But I'll tell you one thing. Burroughs back. He's fully healthy. He was, you know, he wasn't practicing leading up to the season. So he always starts off rusty. He had that injury. Look fully healthy. That offense is back. Bill's offense is fine.

One of the best in the NFL. But I'll tell you, both those defenses are way down. Maybe look at the Bengals the past couple weeks. Might not show it on the scoreboard. But, I mean, Seattle outgained them by almost 200 yards. They put up 400 yards of offense. They just getting unlucky in the red zone. And they had some turnovers.

Last week, I mean, San Francisco had 460 yards. Pretty, pretty had nine explosive passes of 20 plus yards down the field. You had a McCaffrey fumble inside the 10. You had, you know, Purdy when the defensive lineman catches the ball. Fluky things. This Bengals defense is way down from last year. You lost both your starting safeties. Their run defense is taking a step back.

They don't have really any defensive line depth. So their defense is significantly worse than it was last year. They've just been getting pretty lucky in the red zone with turnovers, so it's not really showing. Bill's defense also significantly worse. This is one of the best defenses in the NFL last year. Now you're out Milano, DeKuan Jones, your star corner, Shrey White. They went out and got Rasul Douglas.

It's better than Elam, the bust their buster epic. But who knows if he's going to play, it's one week, and he's not going to fix your defense dramatically. So the Bill's defense, way down. So these are two elite offenses still. with defenses that are way more vulnerable. And with all this reduced scoring the NFL, I think this number is too low.

Then these two teams played last year, if they have these defenses, this total will be like 51, 52. I think it's a really good game. Bill's historically been good in these like revenge spots when they go on the road. They did it against the Chiefs. They want revenge from last year.

But Bengals' offense looks back. I think this is a nice fun shootout to close things out on Sunday night. Well, the reality is if Mahomes is one, these guys in some order, depending on how they're playing, or two and three. And on any given week, they can be every bit as good as Patrick Mahomes. I mean, what Joe Burrow was last week was like, this guy's fucking beating anybody. I mean, he was, he was, and Josh has had some games this year where you're like, holy shit.

This guy's like Rathusberger meets Elway. So it's just, uh, they're also, it's a funny quarterback matchup. Yeah, and they, they seem to be in rhythm. Now, once they're like, once Burrow gets in his rhythm, and that's why when he's missed time before week one, each of the past three seasons, and the Bengals have struggled mightily over the first quarter to five weeks. Burroughs 70% against the spread after week six in his career, and that's because he's missed time, takes him a while, he's also had some injuries.

And then once he gets going, and he needs to be able to move a little bit, you know, calls, QB, scrambles, move around, and then he can go through his, as he feels comfortable enough to going through his progressions. Once he's in a rhythm, he's a tough guy to bet against. But Bill's revenge here, like, but look, both defenses are vulnerable.

We've seen that Bill's been, bottom five defense since their injuries. If you look from an advanced metric standpoint, this is a Bengals D that there's some hidden issues. They go back to the Titans game. The Titans with Tannel put up 410 yards and 27 points and beat the shit out of them. And these teams have been going up and down the field,

just been getting turnovers the past few weeks. So it's hard for me to see how either one of these defenses gets a lot of stops. Yeah, I mean, we talked about it going to the Niners game. You're like, well, their offensive line is not great. They're running games. Joe Mixen looked like three years ago Joe Mixen running over linebackers. And granted, they were off a by. Their offensive line played pretty well in that game.

So offensively, Higgins looked healthy. Obviously, Chase looked elite. I mean, those guys, it's like if their offense is going to play like this, I mean, they can win the Super Bowl. Obviously, like you said, the downfall, their defense, it just has to step up and just create turnover to whatever because they're going to give up yards. But their offense can go toe to toe with clearly anybody in the league.

Yeah, yeah, completely agree. And yeah, I did want to ask. ask you about the they're on a buy this week but the nineers i wanted you to get your thoughts on nineers trading for young because i actually liked it i like to trade to your contender bosa is dominating on one end you have jackson and feral just getting blocked into oblivion on that you're getting no other edge rush on the other side and you're giving up a third round pick maybe you you just run them for a season i think it's worth it especially if you get a super bowl and then plus i mean what are the nineers going to draft another kicker with the third round but i actually like the move for the

Niners as a contender. I don't know what the bears are doing, but did you like that move? Well, I think they needed to add, like, so far their defense just hasn't been as physical over the last couple weeks, and, you know, people were talking about trading for a corner. Well, I think there's some question marks about Steve Wilkes right now. Just, you know, the last several weeks, the defense has not been on the same page. And to me, trading for a corner, if Domeico was your defensive coordinator, it's like, okay, plug and play, scheme, he'll figure it out.

It can be very risky scheme-wise. You plug Chase Young in. It's like fucking third and long, go rush. First and 10, they're running, be physical. It's a pretty easy plug-in-play position. Him and both are buddies. They have had a ton of success with, like, major rehab projects, like Arden Key, Amenahoo, other guys that, like other teams didn't want

become guys that got paid after. This guy does have pretty elite physical skills. I don't think he's ever going to be clearly, you know, T.J. Watt, even Nick Bowie. because he can't he doesn't have the bend but just for what they're looking for yeah i mean they drafted draughts jacson high he's clearly not living up to it yeah uh so yeah they they were just desperate and especially the pay right you just wait a third round pick it's not even just a third round pick it's a comps you're talking about pick in the hundreds so whether you rent them

maybe he likes it and you get them like a one year 15 million dollar deal to really try to get that big deal prove you're healthy given what you had to pay like let's even acknowledge Sweets a better player than Chase. Are they 60-pick difference player? They're both going into free agency, right? Yeah. Yeah, no, I love it. Because I bet they were interested in sweat,

and they're like, hey, we'll offer you our second and our fourth, you know, given that their second would ideally be like picked 58. And they're like, ah, that's not good enough because they're getting picked 33 for them. So it's, the Washington, that's the easiest trade they'll ever make in there. Especially if they were like, you know, probably not going to resign this guy. wait, you're going to give us pick 34? Are you fucking nuts? Yeah, yeah, that was insane.

They did it last year with Chase Claypool. It netted the Steelers Joey Porter Jr. And then they went out in the all season and they wanted to pay, you know, overrated linebackers as their big move. Like, I mean, Poles is lost there. Yeah, I love the move, especially because you just had nothing there. Like, you needed something to balance Bosa.

And that's going to make Bosa better. And there's a lot of metrics that suggest that, like, Young is at like a top 20 pass rusher in the league. Not as consistent, but he's dealt with injuries. And there's something that was just off with the Washington defense overall. Like they had all these guys in the defensive line that were so good. But then there were, excuse me, there would be certain games where they would just not dominate, right? Like schematically, there was something off that was going on.

So I love the move. It was something that the 49ers desperately needed because they're in second place. I mean, Seattle is in first place right now. You can say they pulled a game out of their ass, but they fucking won and the Niners lost. And they get the Niners on a short week at home, that Thanksgiving week. So I think part of it was that. Now, to me, the Leonard Williams trade,

and I know they needed some defensive help. They gave a second round pick for also a guy that's going to be a free agent. No, Leonard's solid. I thought that was a little rich. But one thing you say about John and Pete, they ain't scared, you know. So I think that added some emphasis. this to the 49ers. Because they probably thought

those guys might do something else, you know, a day later. So I, yeah, I think they're just, desperate's probably the wrong word, but they're definitely fucking leaking a lot of oil here. Yeah, yeah, they got,

they'll be fine. They got to get healthier. I like this move. Don't worry, my Ravens will take care of the Seahawks for you this weekend. So you'll be feeling better after this week. Well, Jags Niners next week, off a buy on the road.

I mean, borderline must win for the Niners. You can't just lose four straight games in the NFL. Yeah. even though the NFC, I mean, they could cruise to worst case of their like 10 wins to get in the playoffs. But then all of a sudden you're playing, I don't know,

the Cowboys or Lions or something in that wildcard. That wouldn't be easy. Say what you want about the Lions. They do just have a clear identity. You know, if they want to run the ball, they hit play action passes, their pass rush is really good. They're going to have a home game in the playoffs. Like, depending on who they play and where their seating is,

I mean, more than likely, going to be favored in that first game, right? Yeah. Unless it was the, I guess it's nineers. I guess they could be a slight underdog. Yeah, the lines, their secondary is still very questionable when they go up against elite passing attacks. And then you have to avoid the best, if you're, you're a line's then, you want to go to

Super Bowl, you got to get, you got to have an indoor path. Jared Goth turns into an absolute pumpkin in any weather conditions. I mean, it's bad. You go back to that Baltimore game. He just gets rid of it. He is putting the ball into the ground. Looks like, you know, Tommy Davita. go. But yeah, the lines are frisky. Their offense is only going to get better with that

offensive line. They have an identity. Their secondary is very weak. It's hard for me to see them winning a Super Bowl because I don't know how they would stop any of the elite offensive battalion. Philly, Dallas, the Niners throwing the ball. Yeah, not like those, but they're definitely going to be frisky. If you're a Lions fan, you're rooting for Dallas because just Google your schedule. I mean, you got a lot of bears, you got a lot of Joshua Dobbs. I mean, You got a, the one seed is not crazy. You're going to need the Eagles to lose some games, but just based on their schedule,

it's pretty wide open. It's pretty easy. The Packers suck. You already beat them in Green Bay. I mean, they got, to me, the Lions are a 12-win team. Now, can they win 14? I don't know. But it's definitely there to be had if they play well enough.

And like you said, the road goes through Detroit. It's crazy to even say that out loud. You give yourself a chance. Agreed. Okay, thanks, bro. Have a good weekend. Let's roll, baby. Absolutely.

Enjoy the games. Talk to you next week. The volume. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their Between Songs banter.

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