The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - TNF Reaction, NFL is flexing, Jordan Love is legit

Episode Date: December 1, 2023

John reacts to the Cowboys exciting win over the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football and how it's about time that people stop calling Dak not a good quarterback, and how Dallas is a very good ...team, but they need to start beating the good teams. John also dives into the NFL's  decision on its first flex of the season, and he previews the biggest game of the weekend; Eagles-49ers.  Lastly, Stuckey from the Action Network stops by to give his picks for the weekend. Dallas Cowboys - 5:30 Seattle Seahawks - 13:40 Eagles-49ers Preview - 17:43 Von Miller - 27:49 Texans-Broncos - 29:44 Stuckey - 45:08 Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest. Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:03:23 That'd be me. That'd be the podcast. We just watched the Cowboys and Dakota Prescott and Mike McCarthy pull out a win against those pesky Seattle Seahawks who look pretty good on offense. sets up for a massive, massive game in Dallas next week against the Philadelphia Eagles, which obviously have a massive, massive game on Sunday in Philly
Starting point is 00:03:44 against the Niners. So we will talk about all that, as well as some other stuff going on around the NFL. We had our first Monday night flex, week 15 in a couple weeks. Say goodbye to Belichick and McCorkle Jones, Bailey Zappy, and say hello to the Eagles and Seattle. So we will discuss that as well as my bold take of the week
Starting point is 00:04:05 as we do on every Thursday. And other than that, we will do, we'll talk to my guy Stucky. So we'll talk about some of the games coming up on Saturday, some of the college football games, as well as we will fly through some NFL games from a gambling standpoint who we like. Not going to lie, I like the Niners.
Starting point is 00:04:23 I'm going to hammer him this week. And I might take Bama as well. I might take Bama as well. It might be a little precursor for my bold take. Other than that, no mail bag. I'll get to the mailbag, obviously, next week. and we'll keep rocking and rolling. Make sure you subscribe to the podcast.
Starting point is 00:04:38 We got a YouTube channel. Make sure you subscribe to that as well. The three and out content is up. I wanted to tell you about my friends. And they happen to be my very, very good friends. They're my friends at Game Time. I need you to grab your smartphone, grab your iPad, and download an application,
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Starting point is 00:05:34 looked a little bleak. Now I started thinking like could it be a little bit of a look-ahead game It's not your prototypical Thursday night game because both these two teams played on Thursday So they're coming off full rest. It was hard to have many excuses right prime time game Everyone watching you're the Cowboys at minimum 20 million people these guys know how many people are watching It's at home but let's face it their defense was really bad But before we dive into just the macro version of this Cowboys where they can go like can we he stopped arguing about Dak Prescott? Really? Like I've said forever, I don't love paying him a premium. And now his 40 million doesn't look as bad at 2023 as it does in 2020. He's a good player. He's a really good
Starting point is 00:06:18 player. You can win a ton of games with him. He is playing really good football. But I looked because I remembered they had the best offense in 2021. He threw 37 touchdowns. Like, Dak Prescott has had really good seasons. I'm no longer judging him on these games, throwing these touchdown passes, making awesome plays. He's good. He's been good for a while. Like, he's going to be their starting quarterback moving forward for a long time further. He's going to be judged simply off playoff games. Like, Dak Prescott simply the argument arguing over these games, I don't give a shit anymore. None of it matters. He's like an NBA player. I'm judging off the playoff games. And honestly, the first round playoff game against Tampa, against Atlanta,
Starting point is 00:06:59 when he throws three or four touchdowns, that won't matter to me either. He's going to be judged against the 49ers and the Eagles. Now, if you want to judge them next week against the Eagles, okay, that's a big game for them. But hell, I just saw them play awesome against them a couple weeks ago. It's going to be about the playoffs, because I've watched them back-to-back years, play poorly. If Dak Prescott is going to play like that
Starting point is 00:07:19 in a playoff game, hell yeah, the Cowboys could win the NFC. You know, their defense needs to play Blatter, but like, that's a championship-level player. But he hasn't played like that, like the guy we just witnessed, like the guy a couple weeks ago against the Eagles, like the guy we saw against Tampa when it's mattered most. That's why the last two years, when they've played the 49ers, they've got sent home.
Starting point is 00:07:40 So it's kind of becoming, honestly, it's becoming a lot like basketball. The regular season's irrelevant. Now, luckily in football, for our jobs, for everyone listening, we love the regular season still. It's why football's king, because the regular season still does matter. Obviously, these games matter to put yourself in position for seating. And if you're the Cowboys, you're definitely rooting for the 49ers to take down the Eagles, so you have a chance to get a little revenge game next week and have the same record as them.
Starting point is 00:08:06 But like, I'm sorry, these regular season games don't mean anything to me anymore. Like, I know, I've seen them make these throws for fucking half a decade now. Like, it is what it is. He's simply like, is he going to be a legit player in January or is he not? And I'm not talking about throwing five touchdowns
Starting point is 00:08:23 against Todd Bowles and the shitty Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I'm not talking about, you know, beating the crap out of some 8-9 Desmond Ritter, Atlanta, Alkins team. And both those games are going to be on the road. I'm talking about beating the 49ers. I'm talking about beating the Philadelphia Eagles when it really matters. If he does that, then everyone's going to have to shut up. But like, I completely understand everyone going like, yeah, he's good. He puts up great stats. Like, hell, he's in the MVP conversation. Cool. Like, that's awesome. But this is a franchise. Now, for almost two and a half decades, has not been to the NFC
Starting point is 00:08:57 championship. They have not been to the NFC championship. So that's all they're getting judged on now. We know they're good. Now, their defense tonight was pretty bad, right? Honestly, besides the Bland interception, which, how about Duran Bland? Shout out to the Fresno State Bulldogs. Do you know that Duran Bland did not go to the Combine?
Starting point is 00:09:19 What a great example. My favorite part about the NFL is kind of represents society. You have people first round picks who become stars like Micah Parsons, and you have guys in the later rounds that don't even go to the Combine that become, you know, stalwarts, pillars of your organization. And the best part about football when training camp starts, yeah, the first second rounders are going to get some more shots, but they'll get fucking passed quick. And the moment some backup starts making plays in games, your ass is Wally Pipped, cut, sent to the practice squad,
Starting point is 00:09:49 and that guy becomes a full-time starter. So shot out to him because he read that route, the slow motion view from behind on Bland. It's like he knew the play was coming. and Gino throw it right to him. What a season. You know, part of it when Diggs went down, it's like, where are they going to get the playmaking in their secondary? I don't know, just a Fresno State Bulldog,
Starting point is 00:10:10 who's got about 50 picks this year. What a season by that guy. I mean, headed toward being a first team all pro. But listen, the Dallas Cowboys offense looks awesome right now. Cidley Lamb, Stud. Ferguson, baller. I mean, what's his name's grandson? The former, what's his name, Barry Alvarez's grandson,
Starting point is 00:10:29 texting with a scouting buddy. He was like, I loved him. Obviously, a lot of people did. He went in the fourth round, but he's become a really good player. Cowboys' offense is really, really good. It was in 2021 too. They hosted the 49ers in the first round playoff game,
Starting point is 00:10:43 and they got sent packing. So it's like, we can talk about them. They're a huge brand. Like, they're substance behind him because they're good. They're an easy watch. Parsons is a stud. Do you trust the coach? Why were they throwing the night on third down
Starting point is 00:10:57 at the end of the game when Seattle didn't have any time out? They just gave them an extra 40 seconds. I don't pretend to be Bill Walsh or Chuck Knoll here. But what the fuck are you doing, Mike? How are you, whether you're calling the play, Shott and I'mers calling the play,
Starting point is 00:11:12 whoever ultimately it's your decision, how do you guys green light a play like that? One, it wasn't even close. That threw it to like the back corner of the end zone. City Lamb wasn't in 20 feet. How are you not just running the ball? Like there are times. I'm all four.
Starting point is 00:11:29 this new age football, being progressive, being aggressive, fourth downs, keeping the foot to the pedal. On that play, like, they're really going to go 80 yards? I mean, they don't have any timeouts, run the ball, take off 40 seconds, and they did not. And then for a split second, I'm like, is Mike really going to go for this on fourth and three? Now, he didn't.
Starting point is 00:11:50 There was another time earlier in the game where they had to delay a game under five minutes, and I was like, McCarthy just called the time out. Now, I get it, maybe he was thinking, hold on the time. timeouts in case they got into a weird spot. But listen, I have more faith in DAC, even though I'm not going to pick them against the Eagles of the 49ers in a playoff game, especially if they are the wildcar team and on the road. Even if they're at home, I'm not going to feel great. But I do have more faith in Dakota Prescott than I do the coach in these big spots because
Starting point is 00:12:21 it's just, I don't know, there's a loosey-goosey nature to them. There is no debating. Everyone, I heard Coward talking about this. A lot of people have talking a lot of shit. about McCarthy. I'm sure I'm guilty too. He's pretty damn good. Right? Like Pete Carroll makes $15, $18 million, has a long resume of success since USC. Obviously, he won a Super Bowl, has flipped this team to be very competitive without Russell Wilson. He's good too. Like, those are two really good coaches. But I, I, I'm something about Mike that
Starting point is 00:12:50 makes me a little nervous. Obviously, Mike's team is a lot better than Pete's in the sense of they're just going to go, like people, they have a chance to make noise in the playoffs. Pete's does not. We'll get into Seattle here in a second. But God, Mike makes me nervous. He really does. Something about him. It's like, what are you doing here?
Starting point is 00:13:07 And it feels like that a lot. And sometimes it's defensive linemen, which, listen, it's not necessarily his baby. That's Dan Quinn's, but it is a reflection of the head coach. They can just be a little loosey-goosey. You know, penalties. It always feels like a split second away from getting an unsportsman-like, jumping off-sides. but hey, listen, you don't get style points in the NFL. You don't.
Starting point is 00:13:30 So losing that game would have been a kick in the nads for the Dallas Cowboys, and they found a way to win it. In exciting fashion, as someone who just wanted to be entertained tonight, it sets up if the Eagles lose for a massive, massive game next week in Dallas. Now, speaking of Seattle, they pivoted really well, right? They didn't want to be around Russell Wilson anymore. They despised them. They couldn't stand the guy.
Starting point is 00:13:53 Really, period point blank. end of story. All the articles that came out last year, how excited Pete was when he won the game, they did not like the guy. He drove them nuts. Egotomaniac, wouldn't listen, not coachable. I mean, this is not my opinions. This was all coming out of there. And they pivoted really well. And they have a team right now that offensively has a ton of talent. I mean, D.K. Metcalf is like a poor man's Terrell Owens. That first touchdown, that looked exactly like T.O. in his prime. The other touchdown he had was just, I mean, honestly, I'm not. Honestly, I'm not. I think they stole that play from the Cowboys a couple weeks ago in the Chargers,
Starting point is 00:14:28 where the quarterback just keeps backpedaling, backpedaling, you run a crossing route that runs into the other guy and the guy becomes wide open. I swear to God, Dak Prescott ran. If not that same play, something very similar against the Chargers. Gino Smith and D.K. hit it to perfection. But, like, that team is very, very equipped for a young quarterback. And honestly, like, listen, I've been saying it for a while. Gino can look really bad, and he has lately.
Starting point is 00:14:52 Maybe he was banged up, but I think he's been up and. down the season relative to last year. Tonight he was really good. And when he's really good, their offense looks fucking sweet. I mean, Jackson Smith, baller. Lockett had a bad drop, but Lockett could play for my team any day of the week. Obviously, D.K. is a premium talent. And, you know, Charbonnet, who got hurt in this game, is awesome.
Starting point is 00:15:14 Been falling that guy's career since he was at Michigan. Then he transferred to UCLA, and Kenneth Walker's been banged up when he's on the field. They're offensive skill guys, and if their offensive linemen are healthy, and I'm sure they will be next year. he's really well equipped to be aggressive and go draft a quarterback. And I would keep an eye on this team, especially, like, I think Seattle's going to make the playoffs. Now, they still got some tough games ahead. They still play the 49ers again.
Starting point is 00:15:37 They play the Eagles. Like, they're not a lock. They're lucky because the NFC, they might be able to make it at 9 and 8 maybe on some years. Definitely in the AFC, 9 and 8's not making the playoffs. But they definitely are equipped. I mean, they're going to be in position where if they can find their right guy, even if he's not, kind of like Russell Wilson was early on in his career, the Russell Wilson, when they drafted, was not the guy that he became, you know, post-L-O-B.
Starting point is 00:16:04 Remember, the arguments were like, is this guy even any good? Like, what's this guy even doing? If you can just find somewhat of that version to kind of build around, you might have a better chance and a better ceiling because for as good as Gino was tonight, like I'm just, I'm obviously no chance I'm picking them in a playoff game, but it is impressive just to be in the mix and what they've done to build the squad. But to me, they feel like a quarterback away from really making hay. And they know that.
Starting point is 00:16:31 I mean, they sniffed around years ago on Josh Allen. I'm sure last year they were entertaining the Anthony Richardson. Now, they probably don't feel bad about not doing that given that he was injured. But, I mean, I think this year it's going to be a little harder because they're going to have to come up. But you're going to eventually have to swing for the fences. And they've proven that, as you saw John Snyder today, who was wearing a a short sleeve button up. He, you know, with about five minutes left in the game,
Starting point is 00:16:57 you could see him running with his sports coat behind Pete, screaming at the referee. A couple minutes later, you could tell he's so hot. He's got, you know, the $1,000 sports coat off. He's got a short sleeve button up, like someone who's wearing like the 70s. Love that guy. I would expect them to get really, really aggressive this offseason because they do have some nice pieces.
Starting point is 00:17:18 They really do. Some nice young DBs. Definitely offensively. They got guys everywhere. So that was a fun game. All I can ask for is a fun game on Thursday night. And luckily, because both these teams were well rested, that it was well-played would be strong.
Starting point is 00:17:34 I mean, there were a lot of penalties, but just it was very fast. There was just a lot of speed. The guys didn't look tired. I really enjoyed it. So big win for the Cowboys, and Seattle's leaking a little oil now. Let's get into the big game of the weekend.
Starting point is 00:17:48 Listen, my take on this is simple. I like the Niners and I like them pretty big. and that's not because I don't think the Eagles are good. Or that's not because I think like the Eagles are this year's Minnesota Vikings. I have a ton of respect for the Eagles. And what they've done the last two weeks is fucking awesome. Like if I'm an Eagles fan, the last two weeks have been probably one of the better six-day stretches, non-playoffs of like the last couple decades.
Starting point is 00:18:14 Like what a badass couple wins. Gotta be exhausted. I mean, have to just be spent. I heard Siriani yesterday. They had to go walk through. I mean, they got multiple players. One of their safeties, what's his name, Reed, the white dude, played every snap.
Starting point is 00:18:31 And he's like, yeah, I'll do whatever I got to do. I'm ready to do it more. I mean, they have some D. Lyman playing 70, 80 snaps. Obviously, some of the guys are banged up. You know, Lane Johnson will see his status. You just got to be tired. You know, you just got to be exhausted. And the Niners get the benefit.
Starting point is 00:18:47 They played last Thursday night in a game beside one quarter. was pretty easy on them. That wasn't exactly one of those games where you leave like, God, that was a knockdown dragout. That's going to be one where you sit in the cold tub for a couple weeks. That was like, oh, I'm going to dinner tonight.
Starting point is 00:19:02 Let's go enjoy ourselves. So it's just simply based on, like, the Niners have way more rest. They are healthy. The Eagles are not. And they got to be fucking exhausted. And let's face it, once they beat the bills,
Starting point is 00:19:14 this game isn't as important to him. This game's very, very important to Kyle Shanhan. I mean, I think this is a massive game for Kyle Schenhan. Janhan, a massive game for Brock Purdy, especially if it's sprinkling to prove that he can, you know, somewhat play in the elements, even if it's not 20 degrees. But they're just, everything sets up for them right now. I saw Kyle, you know, kind of pushed back like he was very surprised that they were the favorites. They're the favorites for a reason.
Starting point is 00:19:39 Like, one team's healthy, one team's not. One team has a lot of rest. The other team doesn't. And they're viewed as very similar teams in terms of high-end starting players, right? They're clearly, you could argue the two best teams in the league. So big moment for the Niners. And honestly, I won't think anything else going into the playoffs, like if the Niners win this game by two touchdowns,
Starting point is 00:19:59 it won't make me view that game any differently when they play in the playoffs. I'll go, that's probably more of a pick-em. That's probably more this game could go any other way, especially if it's in Philly. This is just a very unique circumstance. Think about times when, you know, you have a couple long weeks of work, right, and you're just exhausted. And you also have a couple social obligations.
Starting point is 00:20:19 Maybe you've got some family stuff. taking your kids around, doing something with your wife. And then you just hit a day, you're like, I just hit a wall. I need a day of sleep. How do the Eagles not feel like that right now? I mean, I can't even imagine being some of their players. Hell, some of their coaches. I mean, Siriani was telling where they play last week, Bill.
Starting point is 00:20:40 So they were telling it would have been Romo and Nancy. I mean, the guy's sleeping in the office. I saw a picture of him the other day. He looks exhausted. So you just, like every once in a while, we're all humans, their football team full of humans. You just, you kind of run out of gas.
Starting point is 00:20:57 And then you kind of recharge and you get ready for next week, which let's face it, is the division. If the Eagles were to win that game, even if they lose it, they'll be fine. The Niners still have to play the Ravens. It's not like the Niners would have the number one seed with a win. This game just means dramatically more to the Niners. I honestly, I don't think it matters that much to the Eagles.
Starting point is 00:21:15 Not, it doesn't matter to their players, but I just mean in the grand scheme of things, like if they lose it, so what? Very understandable. Let's fly around. Speaking of the Eagles, for the first time Monday night football flexed the game.
Starting point is 00:21:29 And I have no problem with it. I saw some people, you know, it was Kansas City against the Patriots, and they flex that game out, put it on Sunday, and they moved the Eagles Seattle game from Sunday to Monday night.
Starting point is 00:21:43 Of course they did. You cannot, if you have the option, put the Patriots in front of the country. Can't do it. I mean, they are too boring. They are too difficult of a watch. Even Patriot fans would tell you, it's awful. Even everyone that's listening right now that hates that fan that hit us up in the mailbag that said he's a lifelong Patriot fan that he's thinking about changing teams because it's gotten so ugly. Like, yeah, we're all old enough to remember how good it looked. This team is unwatchable. It's just, it's not even debatable. It's, it's
Starting point is 00:22:17 The Giants with Tommy DeVito is dramatically a better watch than Mac Jones or Bailey Zappy and the demise of Belichick. It's not fun to watch. No one wants to consume that. So yeah, does it suck if you bought tickets and hotel rooms, you got to change it around, plane tickets? Totally. I get it. I got news for you. The NFL is not, like their business model is not dependent on you sitting in a seat.
Starting point is 00:22:46 It's just not. And I've gone to NFL games for a decade. And I would say a decade ago, it was definitely more important. But in 2003, just like moving forward, your value as an in-season ticket holder, right? Someone that goes to games, your value to the league is less than mine. And everyone listening to this that sits on their couch and watches games. We're more valuable than the guy paying for a ticket. It's just a fact.
Starting point is 00:23:14 So when I see people online bitching and a moment, and they don't care about the person at the game. No, they don't really. Because the thing that pays the bills in this business is the television product. And we just saw Seattle tonight. Easy watch. Fun watch. Enjoyable team.
Starting point is 00:23:30 Obviously, the Eagles, one of the best teams the last couple years. It means no braider. You can't throw back Jones, Bailey Zappy, and Belichick right now in front of the consumer. It's not fair to us. The other thing is, as you're seeing some of these television ratings, once college football kind of ends,
Starting point is 00:23:45 the NFL takes over December. They've taken over Christmas. They said, Adam Silver, we're going to run you over. You're irrelevant. In a couple weeks, there are three games on Saturday. The month of December is massive for the National Football League. They want to dominate.
Starting point is 00:24:01 They're like a boa constrictor right now, and they're just squeezing everyone out that's in their way. And that's what these games give them opportunity to do. Tonight, who are they up against? What else is going on? They have no competition. Just like that Monday night game in a couple weeks. They're not
Starting point is 00:24:16 competing it. There's no games that matter that they're playing against. So listen, I feel for the people involved, right, if it's a fan, if it's, you know, a coach that this throws everything off. Hell, to me if you're the Chiefs, I was looking at their schedule,
Starting point is 00:24:33 this is a pretty big win. Like, you don't want to play on Monday night. This is a huge advantage for the Chiefs. If you would ask Andy Reid, do you want to change? He would say, hell yeah. Because I, you know, it's actually during a pretty easy stretch of their season. He'd rather just play Sunday Sunday, Sunday, Sunday.
Starting point is 00:24:48 He doesn't want to play Monday, short week. So if you're the Chiefs, big win, Eagles, not ideal. Just giving it, like, you would rather just get in a rhythm of not playing Monday night games in December. Like, I think if you pulled the league, they would like to avoid it.
Starting point is 00:25:02 It's one thing earlier in the season to get up for. What you get, you know, in December headed toward the playoffs, Sunday, Sunday, seven days rest, you know, consistency of your schedule. So big break for the Chiefs to just avoid. It's in new end. England? I mean, shit, let's just beg that bad boy out, one o'clock Eastern, get home.
Starting point is 00:25:22 One thing that just won't die, I have read so many articles about Vrable and everything that's going on with Tennessee and just, we've been talking about it for a while. One thing I've seen, and listen, I understand it because this program, when you have the amount, like, the reason Texas A&M can go, we're going to call Dan Campbell. Because when they call him, they go, Dan, we'll give you 100. million dollars. You can't just say if you're a program, I'll call an NFL coach, if you don't have the checkbook to write him something to make him listen. Now, I know Dan claims he didn't listen, but like you pick up the phone because it's so much money, even if you want no part of it.
Starting point is 00:26:02 Ohio State could do the same thing. Like, hey, Mike, you want seven years, $100 million? Like, you name, we'll give you a blank check. But here's the thing. And I said this about Dan Campbell, and I'll say it for Mike Frable, because I, until this story kind of dies with Vrable. If Mike Vrable does somehow go their separate ways from Tennessee, I think every single job opening in the pros would be lined up to hire.
Starting point is 00:26:28 I think teams would even think about firing their coach. If the Patriots were like, yeah, I'll just roll Belichick back one year, they'd fire him immediately. Washington be all over, Tepard be all over, the charges be all over. You want no part of recruiting. I mean, seeing everything that's going on with the transfer portal NIL, can you imagine what a pain in the ass that is. At least with the NFL, March 15, free agency starts.
Starting point is 00:26:50 If you got cap room, you can sign guys. If you don't, you can't. Then the draft, like, where are your picks? It's very black and white what you can do. You could quote unquote tamper behind the scenes and see what you get guys for, but it's like you either have the money or you don't under the cap space.
Starting point is 00:27:04 You actually have the money, but if you have the ability to allocate it towards certain guys or not. Like in college, can we get a booster to cut us this check? Can we figure out how to get this guy? Can we force this guy out? We've got to keep this guy happen.
Starting point is 00:27:16 I'd want no part of that. The NFL, while dramatically more difficult because of the quality of talent spread around the league, it's a much easier job of just coaching your players, not having to worry about a lot of stuff that's out of your control. So if Mike Vrable does become available, I can see under, unless I'm wrong, under no circumstances him going to Ohio State. He'd be crazy too. Like, you pick your job in the NFL. Hell, even if you want to sit out a year, you'd be the number one candidate for the next several years.
Starting point is 00:27:52 You know, there was a story today, a rest warrant for Von Miller for domestic violence under his girlfriend in Dallas or Texas area. I think it's Dallas. That she's pregnant, claimed he hit her. Then I just saw during the game. She claimed, you know, he didn't touch her. I always say during these things,
Starting point is 00:28:13 absolutely nobody knows except these two people. And my simple take on this is the Vaughn Miller signing for the Bills has been an utter disaster. He got injured last year he tore his ACL. He came back this year he's a shell of himself. And I got no clue what happened. But when you're a Hall of Fame level player, team captain, team leader,
Starting point is 00:28:33 you can't be during the by week having an arrest warrant put out for you. It just can't happen. You know, and I understand some things in life are out of your control. if you didn't do anything, but like, it just can't happen. Like, it's embarrassing for yourself, for the team. So overall, this signing has just been an utter train wreck for the bills. And let's face it, when you pay your quarterback a lot of money,
Starting point is 00:28:56 and you've invested a lot of money into, you know, digs and all these draft picks into the defense, and you spend a lot of guaranteed money on Von Miller, and it doesn't work, it's a problem. Right? When you only get so many bites at the apple once you pay the quarterback, you got to make it, you got to make a count. You really do.
Starting point is 00:29:16 When the Chiefs paid Mahomes, they have, like, Kelsey's got to be good. Chris Jones got to be good. When they make the trade for Tyreek, they got to hit on those picks. And they did. It's why they stayed being good. But if they hadn't,
Starting point is 00:29:29 like if Chris Jones had just become a scrub, they'd be fucked. You know, those type things, like when you allocate your resources, when you have a highly paid quarterback, you got to make it count. You really do. and that signing for a lot of different reasons has just been an utter disaster.
Starting point is 00:29:47 Houston, Denver. I mean, who would have thought that this game would have mattered as much as it does? And listen, we're going to learn a lot about Denver this weekend. But I think Houston, whether you make the playoffs, whether you end up missing to buy a couple games, regardless, I'd be pretty excited. You know, for a team that went through everything with Deshawn Watson, which was just an embarrassment.
Starting point is 00:30:09 I mean, the time when he was like coming to practice, not playing, all the chicks suing him, him just kind of like acting weird, firing the coaches. It was, it was Cleveland Brown, Oakland Raider, I mean, just low-level shit going on. But within the snap of a finger to get D'Amico Ryan, to get C.J. Stroud, to get Tankdell, Will Anderson, to get some core pieces on your team. you got Tunzel, you got picks next year, you're going to have cap space because you have a cheap quarterback. You got to feel really, really good about yourself.
Starting point is 00:30:47 You got to feel really, really good about the team. You know, this is just one of those times that sometimes you've got to go like Andy Dufrein through all the shit to get to the other side. Now, when you're going through the shit, it sucks, right? I mean, I was around the Raiders for a long time. I just felt like they just never got out of the tunnel. right just never ended right if you're a panther fan you're like god is this ever going to end when are times ever going to get any better right when things are going good you never think they're
Starting point is 00:31:17 going to stop right if you're a kansas seat chief fan right now you're like fuck football's pretty easy right if you're if you're a patriot fan for 20 years like god life not bad you know if you're a bulls fan in the 90s you're like yeah it's pretty good life and then all of a sudden mj retires you're like god this sucks so in sports it's so dependent on high level building block players and when you got them, you know, you got to not take them for granted, enjoy it, and there's nothing better than having young ones. There isn't where you go. God, this could last a long time.
Starting point is 00:31:46 And that's what I would be saying, especially because part of your quarterback discussion is always going to be tied to the guy that went above him who just looks pretty terrible. Now, is it all his fault? We can argue until we're blue in the face. He looks tiny. I mean, he looks minuscule. It looks like me out there.
Starting point is 00:32:02 It's the National Football League. you got a guy who not only looks the part, plays the part. So there can't be a better feeling in football than getting a star quarterback when you know the team above you in the draft took another guy. And when you also know that your team liked that other guy too. Like we would have taken that guy, but who cares? None of it matters, right? It's like, you know, hell, I would have dated her if she would have gone out with me.
Starting point is 00:32:27 And then you see her on Instagram, you're like, God, she's kind of ballooned. Thank God I didn't go after her. Right? And that's, you know, right now if you're a Houston, Texas fan, you've got to feel really, really good about yourself. The Sunday night game is really fantastic because the Packers, we talked about this a couple weeks ago. Gutikins went on record.
Starting point is 00:32:43 The last 10 games for Jordan Love were going to define his ability. I never understand. Like, Middilcock, you said Jordan Love sucked. We did. We all watched it. You guys agreed. If you're a Packer fan, you were talking shit too. We were watching him play, he was awful.
Starting point is 00:32:58 Now, yeah, he hadn't really played, so it's just basing it off the games he's going off. It's not like Aaron Rogers has a bad game, My Homes has a bad game. Josh Allen has a bad game. You don't write the guy's career off. You go, yeah, you had a bad game. Great player, he'll be fun.
Starting point is 00:33:12 But when you haven't played and then you do play and you don't look good, what are you supposed to be like? Everyone take a deep breath. He's only been in the league four years. Everything's going to be okay. No, people were nervous. I completely understood it. Hell, I thought he was bad.
Starting point is 00:33:24 These last two games look really good. Well, now they're playing a really good defense with everyone watching. At home, the game's going to feel pretty big. I saw Mahomes say, first time in his career, going to Lambo. It's going to be a cool game. It's going to be one of those games that pops on television. I'm fired up for it.
Starting point is 00:33:39 I really am. And I'm really excited to watch Jordan Love. You know, like, it was the last couple weeks more of a product of the opponents? Or is this guy just going to be a solid quarterback? Like, is their offense actually pretty good? And on the flip side, I told Colin, and I stand by what I said, that, and let me just state this. I love greatness. I say it all the time with sports.
Starting point is 00:34:02 I watched Tiger Woods today who's no longer great and his whole body's fused but I loved him for a reason he was the best player to ever see in sports beside Michael Jordan he fucking eviscerated everyone he played I watched sports for Tiger Woods for Michael Jordan for Tom Brady
Starting point is 00:34:18 maybe you watch for the little overachievers for like the undrafted free agent that plays on special teams that bores me I come tonight for Dak Prescott CD Lamb Micah Parsons DK Medcalf give me the blue chippers That's why pro sports exists because of the freaks.
Starting point is 00:34:35 Who are the best? I watched the Barry Sanders documentary the other night. It's like, God damn, that guy was good. What awesome documentary, by the way. I highly recommend it. It was just remarkable. It was stupid how good Barry Sanders was. Played 10 years.
Starting point is 00:34:49 Every year, pro bowler slash all pro. Every year. And he's just like, I'm out. But like, Travis Kelsey is one, and honestly the chief's operation, right? Mahomes, when Tyreek was there, Travis. Chris Jones, these are elite champions in the sport of football. And Travis specifically is one of the most unique tight ends we've ever seen, right? Definitely one of the most athletic.
Starting point is 00:35:13 And you could argue when it's all said and done the most accomplished. I admire everything he stands for as a player. His work ethic, his drive, his desire, his competitiveness, knowing guys there. I mean, should have text to Andy. These guys love him. Like his energy, everything. People get old. Like Michael Jordan in 1998 wasn't the same as Michael Jordan in 1993.
Starting point is 00:35:36 He wasn't as good. He was still a championship level player, but he was no longer at the same level that he once was. And these people in Chiefsland, like, I'm not some Chiefs hater. I'm my favorite AFC team. But he's not the same. And as I told Coward, whenever I see the, it's like, well, he's flying to Argentina and he's hanging out with Swifties
Starting point is 00:36:00 and he's trying to get laid on the bus, and it's like, it has nothing to do with that. NFL players are doing, who knows what at night, you'd be stunned. He can handle that. But as a football player, you get to a certain age, you're just not the same.
Starting point is 00:36:15 And you never know when it's going to come. Sometimes it comes for running backs at 29. Sometimes it comes for guys at 37. I don't know. It doesn't mean you can't still be a productive, good player. Like, Travis Kelsey's still really good. I'd want him on my team. I just don't think he's the same.
Starting point is 00:36:30 same elite player than he once was. He was once an A plus. Maybe now, you know, on giving games, he can be a B plus. Some games he's a B B minus. Still good relative to the rest of the league. Better than 90% of them. But do I watch him and think that's the same guy that he once was? I do not. Does that mean I'm being a hater? No. I really like to play. I support him like in the sense of it has nothing to do with anything off the field. It just strictly has to do with you get old. He's in his mid-30s. He's been injured now, multiple times this season. He's, you know, you just, it's harder. Your margin for error gets slimmer. And that's, you know, a big picture problem for the Chiefs. Maybe they can handle it this
Starting point is 00:37:12 year. Maybe he's got enough in the tank for this year. But if you just think, like, Travis going to be the same for the next couple years, I'm a big fan. I like the guy. I met him this year at TPC. We were playing golf. Well, he was hitting balls. I was just kind of drinking, screwing around. Couldn't it be any cooler. People love the guy. But, like, It's just as a player, it's hard to maintain that level when you're an all-time great. Usually don't just say an all-time great if you're a position player for like 15 straight years. This is not the way it works? Especially as you get older and get kind of banged up.
Starting point is 00:37:43 So, yeah, stand by what I said. You know, I've been pretty good on my bowl takes lately. I'm not going to lie. I was thinking this week, do I go Packers upset? I was like, I don't even believe that. You know, it's hard to pick one of these games, Houston, Denver. Niners, like none of those games would be a bold take
Starting point is 00:38:02 if you pick one of those teams to win. So I'm going to stick with Saturday. I'm not going to pick Iowa to defeat Michigan. I'm not going to pick Oklahoma State to take down Texas. But I think most people, conventional wisdom, and everyone's going to be hammering the University of Georgia. They haven't lost a game. And honestly, since Alabama beat them two years ago
Starting point is 00:38:24 in the SEC championship game, it's the only game they've lost over the last three years. They've won back-to-back. national championships. Kirby Smart is like the new Nick Saban. But Nick Saban, Kirby Smart has more national championships than he does wins over Nick Saban. And Nick Saban's dominance, I saw Aaron Marie throw this out
Starting point is 00:38:44 on, I think he threw it out on TikTok, but he posted it on Instagram. His stats in the SEC championship game are pretty eye-opening. Newsflash, he dominates this game when he gets there. So, listen, last week, crazy win. It's a rivalry game. Shit gets weird. Auburn had just lost to New Mexico State.
Starting point is 00:39:06 I saw so many people that cover the SEC like, this isn't good for Alabama. They're going to be way more focused. They clearly were, hell, they should have won the game. Alabama got very lucky. I think you get a much, much better version of Alabama. This is to me, obviously the Pac-12 championship game matters a lot, though that game's dead after this year.
Starting point is 00:39:27 never exist. Both those two teams are going to the big tent. This is the game that to me, because all these other matchups consistently suck, that feels like it really, really matters to the conference, to the players, to the coaches. It's like, it's like a pseudo playoff game. It's a pseudo-super ball. It just, it feels, the spread is the smallest of all the other games. I'm taking Nick Saban. I'm taking Alabama. Now, I'm also the same guy that picked them to lose earlier this season. I thought the dynasty was going to, got derailed. It didn't. He's a goat for a reason. He owns a Ferrari
Starting point is 00:40:02 dealership now, worth hundreds of millions of dollars off the field. Don't sleep on Nick, the businessman, but you definitely can't ever question his ability to coach his football team. And the reality is, like, no one wins three straight national championships. That's not the way it works. Eventually, Georgia
Starting point is 00:40:18 is just like, I definitely, even if they won this game, would not pick him to win the Natty. But I think Alabama, upsets them, and then I think it sets off like a domino effect of things getting really weird, right? Because then Georgia would have an argument. It's Florida State win. What do they do with the...
Starting point is 00:40:35 I don't know. But I think Alabama wins this game in Atlanta. That's my bold take of the week. Brought to you by Guinness. Gather your friends. Raise your glasses. And toast to a win, Alabama fans. Guinness draft Stout, imported by Diageo Beer Company, USA, New York, New York.
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Starting point is 00:42:09 Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.
Starting point is 00:42:32 Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement
Starting point is 00:42:57 to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. And the next, we'll talk about life,
Starting point is 00:43:14 mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.
Starting point is 00:43:40 Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tauntons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith Rule of Two. Listen to Stuff to Bo Your Mind on the iHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, back at it again. If you're watching this, I got my guy Stucky from the Action Network.
Starting point is 00:44:19 Make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel. It's up and running. We do little gambling content here every single week with, you know, one of the best in the business. You can find them on the Action Network. You can find them on Big Betts on campus. Go subscribe to that as well. And just firing off tweets left and right when games are rolling. Stucky, let's do a quick look back to last week.
Starting point is 00:44:44 Starting on Saturday, you know, I had Ohio State in the points, even though I don't even like Ryan Day. It was just like, that was a lot of points. It was close. I thought actually Ohio State, and you've been saying this for a while, their defense is clearly a lot better than it's been. They definitely didn't get house, but Michigan covered on that one. But the big game of the day came on Sunday, Bill's Eagles. You've been all over statistically.
Starting point is 00:45:09 I mean, it's crazy. I mean, we're recording this before the Cowboy game. Their point differential is 100 points difference than the Cowboys. That's pretty wild, right? And the Bill's had them. Didn't just have them on the ropes. I mean, we're kicking their ass. but they find a way to fucking win.
Starting point is 00:45:24 Now, the bill's covered, but holy moly, this Eagles team. I mean, are they going to go 15 and 2 with a point differential of 50? Yeah, things keep progressing the way that they do. Luckily, the bills won the toss. I mean, but the Eagles have had something, well, we'll talk about them in a second, but they've had something just every week, there's a bunch of things that just break their way to get these wins. And you've got to give them credit for, you know, they deserve some credits for pulling them out. week it was the officials I mean some of the missed PI calls there was 10 penalties on the
Starting point is 00:45:57 bills in the first half eight in the first quarter most of any quarter in the league this year and then the Eagles didn't get their second penalty until a minute to go in the game then you know then obviously the bills missed two field goals the Eagles at a 60 yarder but luckily and I was on my knees almost just saying please win the toss and Buffalo luckily did otherwise they probably would have lost by six. How about the drive really quick at the end of regulation? Sean McDermott playing this like prevent defense, just giving up easy yards and letting them just,
Starting point is 00:46:30 I mean, he gave them 30 yards. They didn't even have to break a sweat. It's like, why don't you just play normal? It's raining. The chances of them hitting some crazy big play is difficult. I don't understand. I understand prevent defense if you're up, you know, they need to score a touchdown right to tie.
Starting point is 00:46:46 Yeah. But to go in that position to just play, way off and give up easy yards. You're one broken tackle or a juke away from giving up a 25-yard play that way. I just, I fucking despise that. Awful. Yeah. And then he wasted a time out to, you know, to ice the kicker.
Starting point is 00:47:06 I think in that situation, give the kicker more time with, like, conditions and to figure out how they want to kick it and, like, get comfortable in the spot. I think it's bad. And then because of that, you only have one timeout left. You get the ball back with 25. seconds left. You have a kicker with a big leg and then you take a knee. This game was for your season and you just saw. And a playmaking quarterback with a big arm. Yeah, two years prior, you kicked off, tied, and the Chiefs scored, you know, went down the field in 13 seconds
Starting point is 00:47:41 and kicked the field goal. And you're leaving so much up to a coin toss. Your season went down to Quintas. I mean, apparently didn't learn anything. So, yeah, that was a wild game. Fortunately, Buffalo held on for the cover. Your Ohio State bet, I think there was actually the right side. I mean, if you go back and look, McCord ultimately just wasn't the guy. He wasn't going to win a national title with the way that he was playing. But if you go back to that game, questionable touchdown call, which I actually thought was really an interception. Michigan three for three on fourth down. and Ohio State they make the court gift of them a touchdown
Starting point is 00:48:17 with an interception but they still have a chance to win a game at the end so I don't think that was a terrible bet JJ was better than I thought I mean he played better in that game than he had to me like the way he had looked previously yeah yeah I think that they were he might have been dealing with little something
Starting point is 00:48:33 and I think they were probably just playing everything close to the vest over the past over the two previous weeks but speaking of looking back last week and how did I was giving you some shit on Twitter How did your Trager Turkey turn out? Not bad. Now, my brother, who is a Trager master, I would say, you know, it wasn't a solo mission.
Starting point is 00:48:54 By the time we threw that thing in at about 1230, brined it for 24 hours. That's the key. You got to brine. So brined it. Bride it out, you know, about noon on Turkey Day. A ton of butter inside. You know, you had it spadge cock so you could kind of break it down. Butter all over the place, injecting it with butter.
Starting point is 00:49:13 did some seasoning on the outside, and it took about three hours, you know. I got this $1,500 Trigger barbecue. The problem is, it's not really, it's a smoker. I tried to barbecue some fillets on it. It's a little weird. Like, it's obviously made for specific things, but the turkey is sweet.
Starting point is 00:49:32 I think I'm going to have to, you know, the ribs, the tritips, some of the pork, some brisket, you know, things like that. I'm just going to have to learn on the fly. I've never been a, smoker, but now maybe I am. Yeah, we used to do it. Very moist.
Starting point is 00:49:50 What's that? Very moist meat, you know? Yes. Yeah. Once you get it right, I mean, it's amazing. And, yeah, I guess out your way, you got to get it down for some money, try-tip sandwiches. Exactly.
Starting point is 00:50:05 Okay, let's hit on a couple games Saturday. Obviously, Michigan's an enormous favorite over Iowa. Bamma, while they were already in this game, let's face it, they got pretty lucky. I mean, a great throw, great play, but to win a game like that, I mean, holy, maybe it was a football gods throwing saving a bone back for the kick six way back in the day.
Starting point is 00:50:26 But now, a little like, wouldn't you say a divisional game where if you have like a 10-win team playing like a three-win team in late November, early December, sometimes some of these games are going to be tight. That game, Auburn, had just lost to New Mexico. Mexico State, which was probably the worst thing that ever happened to Bama because that's going to wake them up. It's in Auburn. The place was going bananas. I saw a step this week that Kirby has more national championships than wins against Sabin. Now, obviously, you know,
Starting point is 00:51:00 he didn't play him last year because LSU beat him. So I would say this version, this Georgia team over the last three years is a little different than the versions he's had before. It's more they're equal. But is there something of, you know, mentor versus the mentee? It's obviously one of the goes. I think this is one of the better coaching jobs Sabin is done? I mean, early on, you're like, God, is this team going to go like eight and four? I had a scouting buddy that had went through there. He's like, bro, I've been going through this program for 12, 15 years. I think they are going to struggle to get to nine wins. And he just, Millroll obviously played better. The schedule, you know, I mean, they took advantage of it. But they did. I mean, beat the shit out of lane.
Starting point is 00:51:38 like they won that kind of tight Texas A&M game when Texas A&M was kind of still alive and playing well and we know how talented they are. So they've just played well and they found a way to win that game. But is this a sucker's bet? You know, I see it's five and a half or it's just, you know, you can never discount a goat on his, you know, he doesn't have that much longer left. Yeah, I mean, the fourth and 30, teams were 0 of 90 on fourth and 30 or more over the past two seasons for that play. Auburn for some reason only rushed two, which I hate in that situation, and they had a quarterback spy.
Starting point is 00:52:13 I mean, who cares? The quarterback runs there. How does the guy get behind you if you're a DB? Like, how is all the DBs, you know, not, there are two, one in front and one behind everybody. How do you let anyone get behind you? Incredible, yeah. Milro does throw one of the most accurate deep balls in NCAA history.
Starting point is 00:52:30 It looked like FARF. I mean, it had a little loop to it, but it was a beautiful pass. Yeah. Yeah, I agree. Savin's done a great job this year. If you go back earlier in the season, Milro got benched before a game when Alabama played at South Florida and almost lost. I think it was six, six three in the fourth quarter against South Florida. And Bama was a laughing stock. So yeah,
Starting point is 00:52:56 Milro has really turned it around. They made some schematic changes on offense. I don't, I don't hate the bat. I make it around five-ish, so I don't see much value. I did play a little under 55 and a half, it's, but it's scary because if you go back and look, since 2005, the SEC championship has, if you just go back and look at the scores, you'll notice this right away, has gone over 13, 4 and 1. You get all those premier athletes on a fast track, right? You're used to, you know, you're now playing in a dome. There tends to be points, but neither of these offenses have really played.
Starting point is 00:53:37 a good defense all year. If you look at who Georgia's played, I mean, Georgia's schedule's been laughable. Awful. Their average schedule of opponents faced from a defensive perspective, 88th. So they haven't really faced a good defense.
Starting point is 00:53:52 And I trust both defenses more than I do each offense. Both teams are playing really slow this year, too. A lot of familiarity in the staff. So I don't know. I thought it was a little too high. Don't love anything there, but you're right. This is just with the familiarity. Last time I think Bama was the six-point dog a couple years ago, and they won outright in the FCC championship.
Starting point is 00:54:17 Kind of took it to him. Kind of took it to them, I remember, in the second half, right? Yep. So, yeah, there's so much talent on the field, so much familiarity that if you want to take the dog here, I don't think it's a terrible bet. I just am pretty close to where the market is. I think it should be a good competitive game. Well, to me, the Big 12 championship is like a multiple touchdown game. Obviously, the Big 10 game, I mean, you could probably make that spread fucking 35 and people probably still take Michigan.
Starting point is 00:54:50 You know, if you're listening to this on Friday, the Pack 12 game, I mean, by kickoff, I mean, it's hovering around 9.5, 10 points. I mean, that's a lot for a team that Washington hasn't lost. I mean, these are enormous spreads, right, for championship games. do you have any in the ACC games a little weird because Jordan Travis had his ankle shattered so it's hard to even I don't even know what to make of that but of the other three with big spreads any dog that you like to win outright if you were going to sprinkle a little yeah there I guess you wouldn't even count Iowa so it'd just be Oklahoma State or Washington yeah the Oklahoma State I it's hard for me to see them having a chance to winning I mean Gundy
Starting point is 00:55:30 though in these spots against ranked teams and underdog you always team to overperform, but you can't run on Texas. Arguably the best run defense in college football, and the entire Oklahoma State offense is Ali Gordon, their star running back. The only time they've been able to throw is when he gets going and it sets up traction, but no one can run on Texas. Many teams have tried.
Starting point is 00:55:54 No one has been able to do it, hooting Alabama. And then on the other side, Oklahoma State secondary is horrendous. So Texas, and then Texas, look, I'd be able to look, Texas team total over 34 and a half, I think might be a good look there because they need to win. They need to win with style. You know, the committee always says it doesn't matter, but they're humans. So I think Texas wants to put up a number here. There's a reason that Texas, that line opened out of the 13 and a half, 14 minutes,
Starting point is 00:56:24 there's been money that crossed that pretty easily. Yeah, they, when, I look at those other underdogs. I think Oregon is going to win this game. They are the better team. Washington's offense also just hasn't been right. But, I mean, it's a very efficient lot. I mean, it's been priced into it.
Starting point is 00:56:43 There's only been two other instances where an undefeated team, undefeated top five team has been an underdog of more than a touchdown in the conference championship over the past 30 years. it happened with Alabama and Florida back in, I want to say, 2008. And Alabama was a seven and a half point dog. They lost by 10. And then it happened Notre Dame Clemson back in the COVID year. That's the only other time where the two teams actually played.
Starting point is 00:57:22 So their Notre Dame beat Clemson in the regular season. and this is when the Notre Dame was in the ACC for that year. Then in the AC championship, they were 11-point dogs. They lost by 30. But keep in mind, Trevor Lawrence didn't play in the first meeting during the regular season. But this is unprecedented. Like two top-five teams, you already beat them, and now you're catching close to double digits on a neutral field.
Starting point is 00:57:44 So, yeah, but I don't see any value in Oregon. I do think Florida State's going to go down. This is just the team, look, Florida's defense last week, Rottomaker, I think it's like a 10-point drop off from Jordan Travis to Tate Rottomaker. And I think the worst thing that happened to Florida State, obviously besides Travis getting hurt, is Louisville losing to Kentucky last week. I think they'll come out focused here. But they had 220 total yards against Florida. Florida's defense is horrendous.
Starting point is 00:58:17 They'd given up 430 plus yards and four straight games, I think 40 plus every week leading up to that. Florida State broke a run late and finished with 220 yards of total offense. I trust the Louisville offense much more games on a neutral field. Could be a lot of rain. I think Rodenaker is going to make a couple key mistakes. And I think Louisville wins that game. App State, if something in the group of five, I like to. But, yeah, I think the team that's going to go down that I feel confident the most in the group of five games is Florida State,
Starting point is 00:58:51 which would solve all of the. the discourse and arguments that are so meaningless because we're never going to have to do this again on Twitter about most deserving or best teams. I know. At the end of the day, look, yes, it's most, it's kind of a hybrid. It's most deserving, but also you want to put the best teams in. You use the resume to judge that. But if the team that lose their quarterback and they're 10 points worse, we know when one, like, you can say it's a committee.
Starting point is 00:59:19 Ultimately, a TV show, you can say you're not in. I would not put Florida State in. The one caveat being, look, you have two chances. Last week, you won, but you were out gaining 225 to 224. You have one more, you know, chance to prove it. If Vodomaker comes out of here looks amazing, right? He has a pretty good Louisville defense with two potential pro corners, and he throws for, you know, 300 yards, and Florida State wins by two touchdowns.
Starting point is 00:59:47 I'm cool, let them in. They deserve it, and their quarterback looked competent up. But if they lose, obviously they're out. But if they win like 1310 in a month, get them out. No one. I mean, we don't need to wait a month to see Georgia is a 17-point favorite over the Seminoles with a backup quarterback.
Starting point is 01:00:06 Totally agree. Before we dive into the NFL, you know, I'm not a, I'm not some recruiting nerd. I do think this transfer portal when it comes to the quarterbacks is really fascinating. And I, the Duke quarterbacks in it, obviously Cam Ward. at Washington State is in it. Like those type players, whether they go to Ohio State, maybe they go to Florida State, whether they, you know, wherever they go next year, just has huge implications, especially now with the 12th team playoff, right?
Starting point is 01:00:35 I mean, there are, sometimes I see a quarterback, it's like, this is a big move. It's like, this guy was not even good this year. But there are going to be a couple, and we've seen this now multiple times, right? I mean, hell, you got Pennix and Bo Nicks. And I think Bo Nicks is a good example. there's always going to be a guy that you think, ah, this guy was kind of shitty, and then he resurrects his career.
Starting point is 01:00:55 But I think it's going to be fascinating. Riley Leonard and Cam Ward. Obviously, I don't know if you saw Matt Rule said yesterday, the going rate's like $1.5, $2 million for these guys. And to me, you know, if I was a booster or part of a program, like, I wouldn't be cutting $400,000 checks to high school recruits. Hell, I watched the UCLA guy this year,
Starting point is 01:01:13 five-star chip stolen from Oregon for a bunch of money. He's fucking terrible. It's too risky. But like, you get Cam Ward. You know, you got a real play. I'd be like, I'll cut the checks for that. Listen, you can say what you want. I think Dion got humbled a little bit this year, but he is right.
Starting point is 01:01:26 Like, we're not going to be an ATM machine for the recruits, but the transfer portal is a different story. So to me, Riley Leonard, fascinating guy. I think Notre Dame feels like an early leader. And Cam Ward, I think everyone's going to be all over him. So it's Alabama, I mean, all these teams. I mean, you're talking huge money. Yeah, Riley Leonard makes a ton of sense.
Starting point is 01:01:48 Just like, I mean, similar to the Sam Hart. department move almost like ACC school down on tobacco road, kind of just being groomed and then transfers up to Notre Dame. But I agree. I mean, Dion is taking that approach. I think in the recruiting rankings, they're like 60th. They're not good. Yeah. Yeah. So, and then there's, there's also the trickle-down effect of a team. Now, unfortunately, I still like them this weekend, but it's dicey. There's a team like SMU that, you know, their quarterback, Preston Stone is out for the year. The crazy thing about this weekend, one of the most, the hardest weekends, college championship weekends, conference championship weekends that I've ever had to handicap.
Starting point is 01:02:30 On Saturday, there's 16 quarterbacks that'll play. Nine of the 16 either didn't start the year as the starter or got benched at one point during the year. And you're going to have a guy, you know, in Florida State, a true backup who look bad, maybe 10-point drop-off, but still a lot of uncertainty. And then SMU as a kid who was the highest recruit in program history, Preston Stone, for Borderline 5 star. He broke his leg last week. He's out for the year. So now you're going to this other kid, huge unknown with Kevin Jennings.
Starting point is 01:03:03 But SMU, their defense did a complete 180. I mean, they were one of the worst defenses in college football last year. And if you look, and then this year they were out of this world, top five in success rate. yards per play allowed. You look and it's just, you know, there's, they brought in, I think, I think nine of their 11 starters were from. Are they in the Big 12th?
Starting point is 01:03:30 No, they're not, huh? No, they're probably going to move to the ACC. Yeah. Is what the move is there. But they have like four, they had like three Miami castoffs. Guys that were getting time, but just not starting consistently.
Starting point is 01:03:43 You know, a couple of big 10 guys. And then, so you can see some of these, you know, you could just, it doesn't have to be a, group of five team. That's what I think is eventually in the ACC. But you can see a team that does it right. Just all of a sudden one unit can drastically change if you hit on all of your portal edition. So it definitely, and you couldn't do that with recruiting. You couldn't just drastically turn around and your entire defense in one season. That takes time. So yeah, it's a whole new
Starting point is 01:04:12 world. We'll see if a team like Clemson continues to be stubborn because it's definitely holding them back. Let's go to the National Football League. the Green Bay Packers who, listen, you just had to go off what you saw because the guy had never played early on in the season. I thought he looked terrible. Now, these last two weeks, the Lions defense is awful and the Chargers defense is an abomination.
Starting point is 01:04:35 But he kind of lit them up. I mean, Thanksgiving, before you could even blink, they had a couple touchdowns, and he drove right down the field twice. He looks good. I mean, no one's ever argued, and this is the reason they took a flyer on him out of Utah State. His physical attributes were always really intriguing.
Starting point is 01:04:49 big arm could move and I mean listen based on the last two weeks like they should be pretty excited he puts a couple more of these together one they're going to win enough games and two they're going to be out of drafting a quarterback he's going to be their starting quarterback next year
Starting point is 01:05:05 is Green Bay for real right now do they have a lot of momentum was it fake I don't know but the Chiefs were kind of getting worked by the Raiders now once a year they tease the Raiders I've been watching the Raiders for a decade They love fuck with them for a little bit, and then they just end up winning. Sometimes in convincing fashion, like winning a game,
Starting point is 01:05:24 they were down 14-0 and then 31-3 to 3 the rest of the game. Sometimes it's a walk-off field goal, but they always do this once a year with the Raiders. But I don't know. Listen, they're going to be a tough out because of the coach, because home field potentially and their quarterback. But this team does feel a little off, right? And rightfully so.
Starting point is 01:05:45 They're just not as potent on offense. There's a lot of points. this Packer team has some momentum. The game's in Kansas City, though, correct? No, Green Bay. Oh, Green Bay, yeah. So you're getting points at home. Who do you like?
Starting point is 01:05:56 Yeah, I like Green Bay here. Yeah, you're right. I mean, Kansas City plays with its food every once a year, as you said, when they play the Raiders. But what they haven't done in years past with Mahomes is something that also happened last week is they go through these droughts on offense. I mean, they went, I think, four straight weeks without scoring a point in the second half, which is amazing.
Starting point is 01:06:18 I think that they also are plus, I think, 75 or plus 80 scoring margin, plus 58 of that is in the final two minutes, the first half. The offense is off. Why receivers are very underwhelming and are dropping too many balls. They can't find the right rotation. Both tackles, the tackle spots are playing really poorly. They replace both tackles. They both lead the NFL in penalties. They grate out really poorly.
Starting point is 01:06:44 So Mahomes is under more pressure than why receivers aren't as good. So, yeah, there's problems with this offense. It's just completely out of sync. You'll see flashes because Moines is the best quarterback on the planet. But you'll also see these just a court. They'll go a whole half without scoring, despite having Moons. And Green Bay's defense should be healthier this week. It's just a good spot, too, for the Packers.
Starting point is 01:07:05 They played on Thanksgiving. You get extra rest, extra prep here. They're basically playing for their season. Yeah, you could still make the playoffs. The NFC is bad at the bottom. But you win this game. You're right back in the mix. and the Chiefs, you know, they're coming off their second straight road game for, you know, an out-of-conference game against a Packers team that's under 500.
Starting point is 01:07:27 The Chiefs have the Bills next week. A little bit of a sleepy spot, even though it's in prime time. But Jordan Love is playing his best football all the year, as you alluded to. And this offense is finally clicking. And that makes sense to me because, number one, their offensive line got healthy. They did a deal with a bunch of offensive line injuries around the year. but you have Jordan Love and basically like three or four rookie wide receivers. So it makes sense that there was growing pains early, that they had to figure some things out.
Starting point is 01:07:58 And it also makes sense once that, you know, a very young core gets confidence that they're going to be able to build on that and then you're going to see some good results. I think that's what's happening right now. So, yeah, I just don't trust this Chief's offense to win by margin. And if you go back to week seven, and this speaks to kind of the assent. of the Packers' offense and the struggles of the Chiefs offense since week seven. If you look at all quarterbacks, the NFL, and look at adjusted EPA per play, which adjusts for opponent. Jordan Love, 9th, Mahomes, 10th. Adjusted completion percentage.
Starting point is 01:08:36 Mahomes 11th. Love 12th. And Love is averaging two more air yards per attempt, throwing it down field more. So I'm not trying to compare. love in Mahomes. That just speaks to the issues on the Chiefs offense right now. A lot of them drops on the offensive line and how well, how much better this Packers offense playing. So, yeah, I think there's a bit too many points. This is when you want to fade the Chiefs. And they'll probably find a way to win by a field goal. But I think the Packers are live and
Starting point is 01:09:05 was happy to take the six points. Well, I mean, all the Packer wide receivers, Andy would gladly take. Yes. I mean, all the young guys, they would, actually, they, they would fit perfectly in that offense. He'd be throwing bombs to Watson, 11. He would like them all. Yeah. So, yeah, I like them all. I mean, they're an intriguing young offense if Jordan Love is going to be more than
Starting point is 01:09:30 functional. Yeah. Okay. This game's big. And if I would have told you two months ago that, you know, one of the biggest games of the week is going to be Houston and Denver. You'd be like, what? And obviously, Denver is just rattling off wins.
Starting point is 01:09:44 Russell is not near the same what he used to be in his prime but he is much more functional as a player than he was when it looked like he was completely shot and to me their defense like last week against the Browns they were every bit as physical if not more
Starting point is 01:10:00 like I'm not the biggest fan's Joseph guy and fuck how could you be when he gives up 70 points but they have been much better and they don't exactly I mean this saying Steve Atwater walking through the door here Houston to me I've always said this year, even as they've gotten, like, I mean, they're pretty good. There's no doubt.
Starting point is 01:10:18 They feel like a year away. I mean, they got a lot of picks. They're going to have more cap room. But I don't know. I mean, C.J. Stroud, Tankdale, Stud. I mean, they are, obviously, their coach is really good. I just, they're that team to me this year that's going to end up, you know, eight and nine. That was like, when they win 11 next year, you're going to be like all those games that we didn't quite win.
Starting point is 01:10:42 We win next year. I would take the Broncos. Maybe I'm drinking too much of the Sean Payton Kool-Aid right now. Yeah, I like Houston here. Look, Strattie might have his full receiver room for the first time since week one. He's great. He also rips apart, cover three, which will see a lot of when he plays Denver. And the Broncos blitz a lot, don't get pressure.
Starting point is 01:11:06 They blitz at the 11th highest rate. They're getting pressure to bottom five rate. Stroudon with a clean pocket this year, been the best quarterback in the NFL. and it has actually handled the blitz pretty well. Still young, still an experience. If you can get pressure on him without needing the blitz, that's when some trouble arises. But that's not something the Broncos can do.
Starting point is 01:11:25 And look, the Broncos defense is drastically improved. They made some changes. They got, you know, guys like Browning and Joe's back healthy in the front seven. They put McMillan stud rookie in a slot. They removed Tamari Math was one of the worst corners of the NFL. They took him out of the lineup, put in Fabian Moreau, just a more serviceable vet. a guy you're going to get targeted
Starting point is 01:11:44 with your opposite certain. So the defense definitely has improved, but it is still a bad defense. They've won five straight, and if you dig into it a little more, I mean, three of them came by a total of five points. They have a plus 14 turnover
Starting point is 01:12:00 margin over the past five games. Teams have turned it over 16 times, and they've only turned it over twice. That has driven 40% of their points. And if you remove the, and they're only average. Because that Chiefs game that they won, they had five, right?
Starting point is 01:12:19 Yeah, and you're playing Mahomes with the flu. Even last week with the Browns, I mean, their entire defense gets hurt, yeah, DTR gets hurt. But all these turnovers have allowed the Broncos to just keep playing how they play. Like, they just want to hand it off, give Russies, like, easy throws. They're not a scene that's built to come from behind. And if you look, since week seven, that's when, you know, they made some of these changes on the defense and they've improved and they have because
Starting point is 01:12:46 they're not the historically bad unit we saw earlier in the year. But if you remove turnovers, they are 25th in EPA per play, 24th in success rate. In comparison, the Houston defense, 16th and 5th. So, and the Houston defense's been really good against the run. That's, yeah, and Denver doesn't throw it down field, which is where you have to attack Houston. So there's a lot of bounces that have been going Denver's way, which I think have inflated the perception on the Broncos. They've also forced 14 fumbles on the year. They've recovered 12. No other teams recovered more than nine. They've had extreme turnover luck. I think this is a good matchup. I think Houston will, especially for the offense, I think they're going to jump out to a lead.
Starting point is 01:13:31 And I don't think Denver, if they're not getting turnover luck, can keep up here. For what it's worth, in week 12 or later, if underdogs on a four or more game winning streak, so later in the year of won at least four straight, have gone 26, 47, and four against the spread. That's 35% over the past 20 years. That includes 926 and 1, 25% against the spread in non-division matchups against teams of the winning record. If you're on the cover by about double digits on average, that applies to this game. So I'm really selling high. I think it's a good match for the eastern offense.
Starting point is 01:14:11 I'm selling high in the Denver luck. But that applies to this game. And it also applies to my other favorite bet, which is the 49ers. Yeah, let's dive into the heavyweight matchup. My logic is simple. I think the Eagles just going to run out of juice. Like, they got to be exhausted. Right.
Starting point is 01:14:27 You go to the chiefs on the road Monday night football. You pull out a crazy win. Six days later, you go into overtime. Most of your defensive players are playing 70 to 90 snaps. The 49ers have kind of, since they got healthy, have had a couple easy games. They just played on Thursday night, so they get three extra days to chill.
Starting point is 01:14:48 There's an element of everything that happened last year. Once the Eagles won the Bills game, let's face it, this game is not as important, right? I mean, they got the Cowboys the next week. I think the Niners won by like 10. I agree. This Eagles team's been getting extremely lucky. You got to give them credit for the wins, but every week it's something new.
Starting point is 01:15:09 They've won four straight games. And in each, they trailed at the half. They were out game by 100 plus yards. And they, I mean, they should have lost to the Cowboys at home. He saw all those red zone failures. They should have lost to the Chiefs if they don't drop all those balls and the game-winning pass. And the Chiefs, you know, don't give them an interception. I don't know what Milams is doing.
Starting point is 01:15:28 A Kelsey Fumble in the Red Zone. Last week it's the officials. You know, four weeks ago it was Washington in a back and fourth game. They also could have lost Washington in the first meeting. They went for two. That game went to overtime. This team's seven and one in one possession games, getting every bounce. And you said it.
Starting point is 01:15:43 Not only is a good situational spot from the fact that San Frans had this game. San Francisco has had this game circled since last year, right when they lost that Tennessee championship game and they had to play with Christian McCaffrey's quarterback. I'm assuming since that game ended, Shadhan's been working on the script for this game. So they should have an amazing script here. They've had this game circle, but the scheduling spot is amazing. You know, they got their Super Bowl. The Eagles got their Super Bowl revenge in Kansas City.
Starting point is 01:16:08 And again, they went the full 60 minutes. Short week, come back, play Buffalo. And King goes to overtime, exhausting efforts. They're defense on the field for 92 snaps. Not only that, they had injuries. They won't have linebacker Cunningham. A couple of their defensive linemen, including Fletcher Cox, got banged up. That means like Jordan Davis, Jason Carter.
Starting point is 01:16:28 they played career highs and snaps, like 68, 70 snaps for those big guys. I think the Eagles are going to be out of gas here. And then you mentioned with San Francisco, extra time to prepare and rest. They're finally fully healthy. And when they have Debo and Trent Williams in Atlanta, they're 8-0 with an average scoring margin of 21 points this season. And they've had three straight blowout wins. Like, they should come in with completely fresh legs here.
Starting point is 01:16:53 And I think it's a really good matchup. The Eagles defense is not playing well. They have problems in the secondary. Slay and Bradbury aren't getting any younger. And you can attack the Eagles over the middle of the field and then the slot. They can't cover tight ends. I mean, that's a nightmare. They also play a ton of cover one, which pretty just dominate some of the best numbers in NFL history for a single season this year against cover one.
Starting point is 01:17:18 They can't cover slot receivers or tight ends over the middle of the field. Well, good luck with Debo and Kittle, I think you're going to have massive games here. And then on the other side of the ball, the Eagles, he might not have Lane Johnson. He says he's going to play. He usually would play in a situation like this, but it could be some rain, groin injury. Usually, you know, with your star offensive line, that's what happened last week. You don't want to play.
Starting point is 01:17:41 Wouldn't you, once you won last week and you didn't need them, if there's any question, wouldn't you just try to save them for the cowboy game, which is much bigger, you can basically COO them, assuming we're recording this before the cowboy game. They've won, and that game, like, all of a sudden you lose this game, that game is enormous. Yeah. And same goes for Goddard.
Starting point is 01:17:58 They really miss him. They basically just don't have a third guy to throw it to. They miss him on the red zone and throw him third downs. And Hertz is getting healthier, but you can still tell he doesn't have the full burst. And when you don't have to worry about him running at full speed, that offense is much easier to defend. And, you know, the 49ers offense went fully healthy, which it is right now. You know, their Berford practice, their office of line should be at full strength.
Starting point is 01:18:25 I think it's the best offense in the NFL, and it's also a good matchup here. But not enough people are talking about the 49ers defense. And the 49ers defense, one, they've been great over the past five weeks. Why? Because, one, they added Chase Young, which is the biggest weakest on a defense. You had no other really defensive end opposite both of that defense, that opposing offenses had to respect. Add Chase Young in there.
Starting point is 01:18:55 does that mean, number one, you have Chase Young now there, but also Bosa, Armstead, Hargrave, get much more, they get many more one-on-one matchups. So the pressures increased. We know they have the coordinators are one of the best linebacker groups in the NFL. But when the pressure goes out, obviously it helps your defensive backfield, which is also improved because they took out Isaiah Oliver, who was in the slot playing at an atrocious level. 86% reception percentage allowed worst of any corner in the NFL. He allowed 35 catches on 40 targets. Got him out of there, moved Lenore to the slot where he's better suited with his skill set.
Starting point is 01:19:34 And then they moved in, they put in Ambrie Thomas outside. And then him in Ward, you know, if you go by some, you know, PFF or other, they've been top 15 corners. And in this particular matchup, I think similar to what they did against Seattle, who has like a big physical receiver and then a you know, I have a shift-in-fee-year-guy with Metcalf and Lockett is you can have board match up with the physicality of Brown, and you can have Thomas match up with the, you know, shifty or quicker Devonte Smith. So I think it's a really good matchup for the defense. And this Eagles offense is just out of stake the defense isn't playing that well,
Starting point is 01:20:11 especially against the past. I think Cardi should have a big day. And then the Eagles are just due to not get a bunch of bounces. And they're going to be exhausted, like you said. So, yeah, I love this bet. I think the 49ers won by 10 plus as well. And I also think, like, people are like, middle guy for just a homer.
Starting point is 01:20:26 Well, the Eagles probably be my second team in the NFC. But the reality is if the Niners win this game and the Eagles still take care of business and are the number one seed, I don't think the NFC, I wouldn't handicap assuming they're both healthy and the Eagles have got a little rest because they get the only buy.
Starting point is 01:20:42 Do you think this line would stay the same for the NFC championship game or is more of a pick-em given once we come around? or does it depend how everyone looks? Yeah, I mean, the 49ers right now,
Starting point is 01:20:54 like from a power rating perspective are probably at their peak. You know, they're coming off three blowouts. Guys are healthy. Yeah, everyone's healthy. It can't get any higher.
Starting point is 01:21:04 You're week 13. Right now, they are power rated as the best team in the NFL by anyone that's respected in the market, odds makers. And,
Starting point is 01:21:14 you know, so, I mean, that's why the Eagles are 10 and 1 and they're, it's the first time in, In NFL history, a team has been an underdog in week 13 or later with a winning percentage of 90% plus. And if you remove, it's happened with when teams are sitting their starters in the last week.
Starting point is 01:21:35 But this, I mean, this is unprecedented. Their power rating is sky high. Now, the Eagles have injuries. They're not playing that well. And they're exhausted. like in this situational spot that we talked about, that's all priced into it. So, you know, you get Goddard, Johnson back,
Starting point is 01:21:53 you get some guys back on defense, the offense looks better. I would imagine you'd probably see, like, San Fran minus one pick in the NFC championship game. Yeah, maybe a pick. The Eagles look a lot better. But if I'm an Eagles fan, to tell you the truth, I would want to lose this game.
Starting point is 01:22:17 you're probably going to see San Fran. You're probably going to end up getting the one seed. After this gauntlet ends, I mean, Seattle's not playing while either, but after the gauntlet ends against Dallas, their schedule gets pretty easy. Good chance they win out. I think they lose this weekend next week personally, and then went out, finished 14 and 3.
Starting point is 01:22:39 You're probably going to get the one seed. You want the angry San Fran team, lost you twice, and just psychologically. when it ultimately doesn't matter. I think this game means a lot more for the 49ers. It definitely does. It definitely does. And they're just not playing well right now.
Starting point is 01:22:56 They're getting every bounce in this a bad situational spot. And for what it's worth, teams that have a 90% plus winning percentage in week 12 or later over the past 20 years, sample size of about 60 games, they've gone 35% against. the spread, which makes sense. In order to get to a 90% plus winning percentage in week 12 or later, you're usually probably at the peak of your market value, which isn't necessarily the case here. But you have a teams that know people don't want to fade. So there's usually value in fade in them.
Starting point is 01:23:35 And then in order to get to a 90% winning percentage in the NFL, no matter how good you are, you have to have a lot of luck. So there's also some regression that's coming. And that's certainly the case with the Eagles who have been, very fortunate a number of ways. So, yeah, I love the spot. I love the situation. I love the matchup on both sides of the ball.
Starting point is 01:23:54 I love the health rest advantage. You name it. Hopefully the Eagles aren't down by seven with the ball a minute to go in the fourth quarter because they'll somehow find a way to win. And I'll go for two and win it. One variable is that, and I know he played at Iowa State, so he's been, he spent four or five years
Starting point is 01:24:16 I guess he was a four-year starter, and I think he started early, so in cold, awful weather, practicing in the spring. So it's not like he's never seen weirdness. But that Cleveland game, when it was raining, it got a little weird with his grip, that being Brock Purdy. So that's, you know, the forecast potential rain on Sunday is definitely just something to keep an eye on. Yeah. Last year, I think against Seattle in the playoff game, it was raining early. The ball was coming out of his hand a little, just a little different. And, you know, when it's, when conditions have been perfect, people talking shit about him are just trying to talk shit about him because he was seventh run pick.
Starting point is 01:24:51 He's fucking been good. Yeah. You know? But that, that rain thing is definitely something that would keep it. Everyone's a little, I would say, nervous in 49er land with him. Because there's no way, I saw Jalen ask about this yesterday in the press conference. He's like, it is an advantage when we're playing a team that you just practice in it. They can't practice in it.
Starting point is 01:25:10 So it's like, it's, I don't know what the weather is right now in Santa Clara, but it ain't porn. rain. Yeah, no, it's an astute point. I was actually going to bring that up in that if Philly has home field advantage, that's something to watch in. I mean, although there's a ton of win in Santa Clara, but there's been times where Purdy and Inclimate weather has not looked great. There, so I looked into that for sure. Do you remember that from college? Yeah, I mean, he was at the, I don't remember being a thing, but he would, he just, was inconsistent at times. He was great in October, and then the weather would get worse.
Starting point is 01:25:48 So I guess, and then he wasn't as good. So maybe it was weather related. I'll have to dig into that a little bit. But it's not, I mean, he has small hands. Yeah, he has small hands. So it's definitely a thing. So that's something to watch for if these teams play again in conditions in the playoffs. If it's in Philly, what are the weather.
Starting point is 01:26:08 Maybe these were a glove. Yeah, because it's, what I did look into it, it's, there's going to be no win. it's going to be, you know, 60 degrees, and the rain is going to be bad. So you could see occasional showers, but it's not going to be a downpour. It's not going to be terrible conditions. As of right now, it could change the fucking weather, who knows. But it's not going to be really bad because that is something I look at because, yeah, there's been some times where I have watched Purdy in really bad conditions.
Starting point is 01:26:40 And because of his hand size, he'd say, oh, maybe. this gets iffy. I don't think it's going to be bad enough out to where that matters, but that's definitely worth pointing out. This is a good week. Hell, it starts Friday night with a big-time Pac-12 game. Adios to the Pac-12, but thanks for giving us one last fun ride this year. And Saturday's a fun day, and obviously Sunday's just a massive day. I mean, there are just some playoff games. Even that, now the Green Bay is good, that Green Bay can't City game is awfully intriguing. So at least we got that because Jags Bengals, that was going to be good.
Starting point is 01:27:14 But now it's not on Monday night. Oh, my God. We've gotten some curveballs with some of these primetime games. But I guess football is better than no football. So we can complain all we want, but I'd rather have a game on even if it's shitty. Yeah, of course. Back to July. Took us the limit.
Starting point is 01:27:30 Exactly. That's all you got to think. July, June. You'd be begging for Browning versus the Jags. By the way, you didn't mention this week what you your big Sunday bet's going to bid. 49ers? Yeah, I mean, that's what I feel the best. I did like Denver, but the way you kind of just convinced me, I mean, that's, that is a little,
Starting point is 01:27:50 you're right. I mean, I bet when you dive into the numbers, the turnover stuff, I mean, that, like you said, their biggest win of that stretch is Kansas City, and that was kind of a unique deal. Yeah, you're also, you're buying them high. It's on five straight. That's not really, usually when you want to buy teams. But I agree. I'm pretty confident on the Niners right now, I agree. Assuming everyone's healthy. That's my favorite bet.
Starting point is 01:28:11 Favorite bet of the weekend. Because when Trent and Debo have played, they have dominated. Eight. Those guys were out. Three touchdown margin on average. There is just a swag that comes, it's the combination of those two guys because Trent is so physical and they can do so much. Kyle loves running the ball and all the play action is based off going the other way to his right tackle side. And then Debo is just, you know, he's just a unique player, you know.
Starting point is 01:28:36 And they have no one that can cover him or Kittle. It's a great match. Well, my one issue is, you know, if this is golf or boxing or UFC, like, you can talk shit and you can back it up. Like, Debo hates these dbs. He thinks they're scrubs, especially Bradbury. But it's like, well, what if Hassan Reddicks likes Bradbury and takes it out on Colton McKivitz? That's the only thing. Like, you can't speak for like, ultimately Burford and Brendel have to block the two Georgia defensive tackles.
Starting point is 01:29:09 So yeah, like you can dominate, but can your other guys handle themselves? That's the only thing like because the Eagles, this is an easy one. Like we beat these guys last year. Debo has given them some motivation of like not backing down from all the shitty talk. Which again, like I have no, Debo can say whatever he wants. He's a fucking war dad. He's proving it in the biggest games. But some of his teammates make me a little nervous on offense.
Starting point is 01:29:32 And it starts with the right tackle. And the one thing that also makes me nervous is Kyle's scheme, you know, just a lot of just zone play action. The Eagles are used to seeing that stuff in practice. So last year when he ran that play, they got Purdy hurt. Like, it's hard to fool Reddick or Brandon Graham or some of their edge rushers.
Starting point is 01:29:52 They're used to seeing like they're not biting on the run down the line of scrimmage and letting Purdy walk. So to me, Purdy's got to be, especially early in the game, just careful. Because I just don't think their ends are going to bite like some of these teams that they just annihilate. And Hassan Reddick,
Starting point is 01:30:08 I mean, last week, when he slammed Josh Allen. That was like an old school Lawrence Taylor level play. And I think he's going to be coming for Bertie, try to KM. I just think Brock and Kyle have to be very careful early on. Now, if they get a little, maybe you kind of tap out, but I do think early on those defensive linemen are becoming for the little quarterback from Iowa. Yeah, I think they'll have, it's a good point because that is the one priority that I'm most worried about
Starting point is 01:30:34 That would be just the other offensive linemen next to Williams against that Eagle's front. But, I mean, they're exhausted. I mean, I don't think Cox is going to play. They just got banged up. They played so many snaps last week. So they just might not have. Their linebackers are terrible, and Kyle's scheme annihilates. Yeah.
Starting point is 01:30:51 And I think, look, they've had this game circle. So I'm assuming, and they have extra time. So I'm assuming the script will be really good, get a lead. And then that defense is going to wear down as the game goes on. But yeah, that would be my concern, too. but assuming no flukes and the voodoo for the Eagles runs out, I think the 4-9ers is the best bet it would become. Have you seen the Steelers schedule, like the next four weeks, by the way?
Starting point is 01:31:13 I think it's a joke, right? They get the joke, right? You're going to look up. I mean, worst case, they're going to be 10 and 5. They might be like 11 and 4. You're like, what? How is this possible? I picked them to be like in the AFC championship game.
Starting point is 01:31:25 I don't think they're going to get there. And I never thought if they went 114, it would have looked like this. But it's kind of on the table when you look at who they're playing. They are, they're living a unique football life this season. I'll give them that. Yeah, they get the Cardinals this week, should win that game, the Patriots, with who knows what the quarterback's going to be, the Colts, the Bengals with another backup,
Starting point is 01:31:49 and then finish Steelers, Seahawks, Ravens. So yeah, they're going to be right in the mix. And the funny, we'll see if their offense, Pickett finally threw over the middle of the field last week, between the hashes. Their offense, I think the- What if they're like the two-seat? I mean, what if somehow they win the division?
Starting point is 01:32:06 Well, if the bills sneak in, the bills would be like four-point favorites on the road in the opening week. The bills are, I mean, you watched last week with the way Josh playing. They can't be dead. I mean, beside the Eagles, who beats them last week? And then like the Niners and maybe the Chiefs, you know, it's like they're beating every team in the league. Yeah, there's seven teams that I think, based on everything I look at. There's only seven teams that can win the Super Bowl this year. And then there was a big drop-off.
Starting point is 01:32:29 And the bills are in that mix, and they might have made the playoffs. It's the Bills, the Ravens, the Chiefs, the Dolphins. Niners Cowboys Eagles. That's it. And the problem with the Bills is you have a lot of these teams ahead of them. Like, for example, the Texans of Broncos play each other this week. A lot of them play the Bengals too without Burrow coming up.
Starting point is 01:32:50 But the Colts and Texans play each other. There's like a bunch of free wins. And they go, the bills play the Chiefs, then the Cowboys, then the Dolphins. Their schedule might just fuck them. So they got a win at. that you so but if they get in um and then they sneak in as the seven and you're the two in the iFC you're saying oh fuck but the best stat of the weekend was the steward's finally got to 400 yards the last time they got to 400 yards was the game before matt canada took over his offensive
Starting point is 01:33:20 coordinator they went like 55 games without getting to 400 yards and then they got get 400 yards the day after he's the game after he's gone uh just amazing uh so maybe they're all offense will have more juice. I've never heard a team and I get it's been a long time so I and that number specifically celebrate like you would never hear a good team talk about yardage if they had 16 points. It would never come. I mean never you'd just be like we got to score more points got to be better in the red zone all we heard all week yeah 422 yards 40 it's like you guys scored 14 16 points 16 points yeah hilarious uh I'm assuming they're just tired of talking about that but that does very, very telling.
Starting point is 01:34:05 I would get it if they had scored 28 points, right? It'd be like awesome, 400 plus yards, 28 points, 16 points. Yeah. It's like the Patriots. I mean, it just, okay, well, Sunky, keep an eye on those Steelers, man. They're coming. Take it easy, bro. Absolutely, good luck to speak in, and see you next week.
Starting point is 01:34:29 The volume. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite, unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?
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