The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out - TNF Reaction, NFL is flexing, Jordan Love is legit
Episode Date: December 1, 2023John reacts to the Cowboys exciting win over the Seattle Seahawks on Thursday Night Football and how it's about time that people stop calling Dak not a good quarterback, and how Dallas is a very good ...team, but they need to start beating the good teams. John also dives into the NFL's decision on its first flex of the season, and he previews the biggest game of the weekend; Eagles-49ers. Lastly, Stuckey from the Action Network stops by to give his picks for the weekend. Dallas Cowboys - 5:30 Seattle Seahawks - 13:40 Eagles-49ers Preview - 17:43 Von Miller - 27:49 Texans-Broncos - 29:44 Stuckey - 45:08 Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest. Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow - for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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What is going on, my people?
John Middokov, three and out podcast.
That'd be me.
That'd be the podcast.
We just watched the Cowboys and Dakota Prescott and Mike McCarthy
pull out a win against those pesky Seattle Seahawks
who look pretty good on offense.
sets up for a massive, massive game in Dallas next week
against the Philadelphia Eagles,
which obviously have a massive, massive game on Sunday in Philly
against the Niners.
So we will talk about all that,
as well as some other stuff going on around the NFL.
We had our first Monday night flex,
week 15 in a couple weeks.
Say goodbye to Belichick and McCorkle Jones,
Bailey Zappy, and say hello to the Eagles and Seattle.
So we will discuss that as well as my bold take of the week
as we do on every Thursday.
And other than that, we will do,
we'll talk to my guy Stucky.
So we'll talk about some of the games coming up on Saturday,
some of the college football games,
as well as we will fly through some NFL games
from a gambling standpoint who we like.
Not going to lie, I like the Niners.
I'm going to hammer him this week.
And I might take Bama as well.
I might take Bama as well.
It might be a little precursor for my bold take.
Other than that, no mail bag.
I'll get to the mailbag, obviously, next week.
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How about them Cowboys?
This game, this game.
looked a little bleak. Now I started thinking like could it be a little bit of a look-ahead game
It's not your prototypical Thursday night game because both these two teams played on Thursday
So they're coming off full rest. It was hard to have many excuses right prime time game
Everyone watching you're the Cowboys at minimum 20 million people these guys know how many people are watching
It's at home but let's face it their defense was really bad
But before we dive into just the macro version of this Cowboys where they can go like can we
he stopped arguing about Dak Prescott? Really? Like I've said forever, I don't love paying him a premium. And now
his 40 million doesn't look as bad at 2023 as it does in 2020. He's a good player. He's a really good
player. You can win a ton of games with him. He is playing really good football. But I looked because I
remembered they had the best offense in 2021. He threw 37 touchdowns. Like, Dak Prescott has had
really good seasons. I'm no longer judging him on these games, throwing
these touchdown passes, making awesome plays. He's good. He's been good for a while. Like,
he's going to be their starting quarterback moving forward for a long time further. He's going to
be judged simply off playoff games. Like, Dak Prescott simply the argument arguing over these
games, I don't give a shit anymore. None of it matters. He's like an NBA player. I'm judging
off the playoff games. And honestly, the first round playoff game against Tampa, against Atlanta,
when he throws three or four touchdowns, that won't matter to me either. He's going to be judged
against the 49ers and the Eagles.
Now, if you want to judge them next week against the Eagles,
okay, that's a big game for them.
But hell, I just saw them play awesome against them
a couple weeks ago. It's going to be about the playoffs,
because I've watched them back-to-back years,
play poorly. If Dak Prescott is going to play like that
in a playoff game, hell yeah, the Cowboys could win the NFC.
You know, their defense needs to play Blatter,
but like, that's a championship-level player.
But he hasn't played like that,
like the guy we just witnessed,
like the guy a couple weeks ago against the Eagles,
like the guy we saw against Tampa when it's mattered most.
That's why the last two years, when they've played the 49ers, they've got sent home.
So it's kind of becoming, honestly, it's becoming a lot like basketball.
The regular season's irrelevant.
Now, luckily in football, for our jobs, for everyone listening, we love the regular season still.
It's why football's king, because the regular season still does matter.
Obviously, these games matter to put yourself in position for seating.
And if you're the Cowboys, you're definitely rooting for the 49ers to take down the Eagles,
so you have a chance to get a little revenge game next week
and have the same record as them.
But like, I'm sorry, these regular season games
don't mean anything to me anymore.
Like, I know, I've seen them make these throws
for fucking half a decade now.
Like, it is what it is.
He's simply like, is he going to be a legit player in January
or is he not?
And I'm not talking about throwing five touchdowns
against Todd Bowles and the shitty Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
I'm not talking about, you know,
beating the crap out of some 8-9 Desmond Ritter, Atlanta,
Alkins team. And both those games are going to be on the road. I'm talking about beating the 49ers.
I'm talking about beating the Philadelphia Eagles when it really matters. If he does that, then everyone's
going to have to shut up. But like, I completely understand everyone going like, yeah, he's good. He
puts up great stats. Like, hell, he's in the MVP conversation. Cool. Like, that's awesome.
But this is a franchise. Now, for almost two and a half decades, has not been to the NFC
championship. They have not been to the NFC
championship.
So that's all they're getting judged on now.
We know they're good.
Now, their defense tonight was pretty bad, right?
Honestly, besides the Bland interception, which, how about Duran Bland?
Shout out to the Fresno State Bulldogs.
Do you know that Duran Bland did not go to the Combine?
What a great example.
My favorite part about the NFL is kind of represents society.
You have people first round picks who become stars like Micah Parsons,
and you have guys in the later rounds that don't even go to the Combine
that become, you know, stalwarts, pillars of your organization.
And the best part about football when training camp starts, yeah, the first second rounders are going to get some more shots,
but they'll get fucking passed quick.
And the moment some backup starts making plays in games, your ass is Wally Pipped, cut, sent to the practice squad,
and that guy becomes a full-time starter.
So shot out to him because he read that route, the slow motion view from behind on Bland.
It's like he knew the play was coming.
and Gino throw it right to him.
What a season.
You know, part of it when Diggs went down,
it's like, where are they going to get the playmaking in their secondary?
I don't know, just a Fresno State Bulldog,
who's got about 50 picks this year.
What a season by that guy.
I mean, headed toward being a first team all pro.
But listen, the Dallas Cowboys offense looks awesome right now.
Cidley Lamb, Stud.
Ferguson, baller.
I mean, what's his name's grandson?
The former, what's his name, Barry Alvarez's grandson,
texting with a scouting buddy.
He was like, I loved him.
Obviously, a lot of people did.
He went in the fourth round,
but he's become a really good player.
Cowboys' offense is really, really good.
It was in 2021 too.
They hosted the 49ers in the first round playoff game,
and they got sent packing.
So it's like, we can talk about them.
They're a huge brand.
Like, they're substance behind him because they're good.
They're an easy watch.
Parsons is a stud.
Do you trust the coach?
Why were they throwing the night on third down
at the end of the game
when Seattle didn't have any time out?
They just gave them an extra 40 seconds.
I don't pretend to be Bill Walsh
or Chuck Knoll here.
But what the fuck are you doing, Mike?
How are you, whether you're calling the play,
Shott and I'mers calling the play,
whoever ultimately it's your decision,
how do you guys green light a play like that?
One, it wasn't even close.
That threw it to like the back corner of the end zone.
City Lamb wasn't in 20 feet.
How are you not just running the ball?
Like there are times.
I'm all four.
this new age football, being progressive, being aggressive,
fourth downs, keeping the foot to the pedal.
On that play, like, they're really going to go 80 yards?
I mean, they don't have any timeouts, run the ball, take off 40 seconds,
and they did not.
And then for a split second, I'm like, is Mike really going to go for this on
fourth and three?
Now, he didn't.
There was another time earlier in the game where they had to delay a game under five minutes,
and I was like, McCarthy just called the time out.
Now, I get it, maybe he was thinking, hold on the time.
timeouts in case they got into a weird spot.
But listen, I have more faith in DAC, even though I'm not going to pick them against the Eagles
of the 49ers in a playoff game, especially if they are the wildcar team and on the road.
Even if they're at home, I'm not going to feel great.
But I do have more faith in Dakota Prescott than I do the coach in these big spots because
it's just, I don't know, there's a loosey-goosey nature to them.
There is no debating.
Everyone, I heard Coward talking about this.
A lot of people have talking a lot of shit.
about McCarthy. I'm sure I'm guilty too. He's pretty damn good.
Right? Like Pete Carroll makes $15, $18 million, has a long resume of success since USC.
Obviously, he won a Super Bowl, has flipped this team to be very competitive without Russell Wilson.
He's good too. Like, those are two really good coaches. But I, I, I'm something about Mike that
makes me a little nervous. Obviously, Mike's team is a lot better than Pete's in the sense of
they're just going to go, like people, they have a chance to make noise in the playoffs.
Pete's does not.
We'll get into Seattle here in a second.
But God, Mike makes me nervous.
He really does.
Something about him.
It's like, what are you doing here?
And it feels like that a lot.
And sometimes it's defensive linemen, which, listen, it's not necessarily his baby.
That's Dan Quinn's, but it is a reflection of the head coach.
They can just be a little loosey-goosey.
You know, penalties.
It always feels like a split second away from getting an unsportsman-like, jumping off-sides.
but hey, listen, you don't get style points in the NFL.
You don't.
So losing that game would have been a kick in the nads for the Dallas Cowboys,
and they found a way to win it.
In exciting fashion, as someone who just wanted to be entertained tonight,
it sets up if the Eagles lose for a massive, massive game next week in Dallas.
Now, speaking of Seattle, they pivoted really well, right?
They didn't want to be around Russell Wilson anymore.
They despised them.
They couldn't stand the guy.
Really, period point blank.
end of story. All the articles that came out last year, how excited Pete was when he won the
game, they did not like the guy. He drove them nuts. Egotomaniac, wouldn't listen, not coachable.
I mean, this is not my opinions. This was all coming out of there. And they pivoted really well.
And they have a team right now that offensively has a ton of talent. I mean, D.K. Metcalf is like
a poor man's Terrell Owens. That first touchdown, that looked exactly like T.O. in his prime.
The other touchdown he had was just, I mean, honestly, I'm not. Honestly, I'm not.
I think they stole that play from the Cowboys a couple weeks ago in the Chargers,
where the quarterback just keeps backpedaling, backpedaling,
you run a crossing route that runs into the other guy and the guy becomes wide open.
I swear to God, Dak Prescott ran.
If not that same play, something very similar against the Chargers.
Gino Smith and D.K. hit it to perfection.
But, like, that team is very, very equipped for a young quarterback.
And honestly, like, listen, I've been saying it for a while.
Gino can look really bad, and he has lately.
Maybe he was banged up, but I think he's been up and.
down the season relative to last year.
Tonight he was really good.
And when he's really good, their offense looks fucking sweet.
I mean, Jackson Smith, baller.
Lockett had a bad drop, but Lockett could play for my team any day of the week.
Obviously, D.K. is a premium talent.
And, you know, Charbonnet, who got hurt in this game, is awesome.
Been falling that guy's career since he was at Michigan.
Then he transferred to UCLA, and Kenneth Walker's been banged up when he's on the field.
They're offensive skill guys, and if their offensive linemen are healthy,
and I'm sure they will be next year.
he's really well equipped to be aggressive and go draft a quarterback.
And I would keep an eye on this team, especially, like, I think Seattle's going to make the playoffs.
Now, they still got some tough games ahead.
They still play the 49ers again.
They play the Eagles.
Like, they're not a lock.
They're lucky because the NFC, they might be able to make it at 9 and 8 maybe on some years.
Definitely in the AFC, 9 and 8's not making the playoffs.
But they definitely are equipped.
I mean, they're going to be in position where if they can find their right guy,
even if he's not, kind of like Russell Wilson was early on in his career,
the Russell Wilson, when they drafted, was not the guy that he became, you know, post-L-O-B.
Remember, the arguments were like, is this guy even any good?
Like, what's this guy even doing?
If you can just find somewhat of that version to kind of build around,
you might have a better chance and a better ceiling because for as good as Gino was tonight,
like I'm just, I'm obviously no chance I'm picking them in a playoff game,
but it is impressive just to be in the mix and what they've done to build the squad.
But to me, they feel like a quarterback away from really making hay.
And they know that.
I mean, they sniffed around years ago on Josh Allen.
I'm sure last year they were entertaining the Anthony Richardson.
Now, they probably don't feel bad about not doing that given that he was injured.
But, I mean, I think this year it's going to be a little harder because they're going to have to come up.
But you're going to eventually have to swing for the fences.
And they've proven that, as you saw John Snyder today, who was wearing a
a short sleeve button up.
He, you know, with about five minutes left in the game,
you could see him running with his sports coat behind Pete,
screaming at the referee.
A couple minutes later, you could tell he's so hot.
He's got, you know, the $1,000 sports coat off.
He's got a short sleeve button up, like someone who's wearing like the 70s.
Love that guy.
I would expect them to get really, really aggressive this offseason because they do have some
nice pieces.
They really do.
Some nice young DBs.
Definitely offensively.
They got guys everywhere.
So that was a fun game.
All I can ask for is a fun game on Thursday night.
And luckily, because both these teams were well rested,
that it was well-played would be strong.
I mean, there were a lot of penalties,
but just it was very fast.
There was just a lot of speed.
The guys didn't look tired.
I really enjoyed it.
So big win for the Cowboys,
and Seattle's leaking a little oil now.
Let's get into the big game of the weekend.
Listen, my take on this is simple.
I like the Niners and I like them pretty big.
and that's not because I don't think the Eagles are good.
Or that's not because I think like the Eagles are this year's Minnesota Vikings.
I have a ton of respect for the Eagles.
And what they've done the last two weeks is fucking awesome.
Like if I'm an Eagles fan, the last two weeks have been probably one of the better six-day stretches,
non-playoffs of like the last couple decades.
Like what a badass couple wins.
Gotta be exhausted.
I mean, have to just be spent.
I heard Siriani yesterday.
They had to go walk through.
I mean, they got multiple players.
One of their safeties, what's his name, Reed, the white dude,
played every snap.
And he's like, yeah, I'll do whatever I got to do.
I'm ready to do it more.
I mean, they have some D. Lyman playing 70, 80 snaps.
Obviously, some of the guys are banged up.
You know, Lane Johnson will see his status.
You just got to be tired.
You know, you just got to be exhausted.
And the Niners get the benefit.
They played last Thursday night in a game beside one quarter.
was pretty easy on them.
That wasn't exactly one of those games
where you leave like,
God, that was a knockdown dragout.
That's going to be one where you sit in the cold tub
for a couple weeks.
That was like, oh, I'm going to dinner tonight.
Let's go enjoy ourselves.
So it's just simply based on,
like, the Niners have way more rest.
They are healthy.
The Eagles are not.
And they got to be fucking exhausted.
And let's face it,
once they beat the bills,
this game isn't as important to him.
This game's very, very important to Kyle Shanhan.
I mean, I think this is a massive game
for Kyle Schenhan.
Janhan, a massive game for Brock Purdy, especially if it's sprinkling to prove that he can, you know, somewhat play in the elements, even if it's not 20 degrees.
But they're just, everything sets up for them right now.
I saw Kyle, you know, kind of pushed back like he was very surprised that they were the favorites.
They're the favorites for a reason.
Like, one team's healthy, one team's not.
One team has a lot of rest.
The other team doesn't.
And they're viewed as very similar teams in terms of high-end starting players, right?
They're clearly, you could argue the two best teams in the league.
So big moment for the Niners.
And honestly, I won't think anything else going into the playoffs,
like if the Niners win this game by two touchdowns,
it won't make me view that game any differently when they play in the playoffs.
I'll go, that's probably more of a pick-em.
That's probably more this game could go any other way,
especially if it's in Philly.
This is just a very unique circumstance.
Think about times when, you know, you have a couple long weeks of work, right,
and you're just exhausted.
And you also have a couple social obligations.
Maybe you've got some family stuff.
taking your kids around, doing something with your wife.
And then you just hit a day, you're like, I just hit a wall.
I need a day of sleep.
How do the Eagles not feel like that right now?
I mean, I can't even imagine being some of their players.
Hell, some of their coaches.
I mean, Siriani was telling where they play last week, Bill.
So they were telling it would have been Romo and Nancy.
I mean, the guy's sleeping in the office.
I saw a picture of him the other day.
He looks exhausted.
So you just, like every once in a while,
we're all humans,
their football team full of humans.
You just, you kind of run out of gas.
And then you kind of recharge and you get ready for next week,
which let's face it, is the division.
If the Eagles were to win that game,
even if they lose it, they'll be fine.
The Niners still have to play the Ravens.
It's not like the Niners would have the number one seed with a win.
This game just means dramatically more to the Niners.
I honestly, I don't think it matters that much to the Eagles.
Not, it doesn't matter to their players,
but I just mean in the grand scheme of things,
like if they lose it, so what?
Very understandable.
Let's fly around.
Speaking of the Eagles,
for the first time Monday night football
flexed the game.
And I have no problem with it.
I saw some people,
you know, it was Kansas City
against the Patriots,
and they flex that game out,
put it on Sunday,
and they moved the Eagles
Seattle game from Sunday to Monday night.
Of course they did.
You cannot, if you have the option,
put the Patriots in front of the
country. Can't do it. I mean, they are too boring. They are too difficult of a watch.
Even Patriot fans would tell you, it's awful. Even everyone that's listening right now that hates
that fan that hit us up in the mailbag that said he's a lifelong Patriot fan that he's
thinking about changing teams because it's gotten so ugly. Like, yeah, we're all old enough to remember
how good it looked. This team is unwatchable. It's just, it's not even debatable. It's, it's
The Giants with Tommy DeVito is dramatically a better watch than Mac Jones or Bailey Zappy and the demise of Belichick.
It's not fun to watch.
No one wants to consume that.
So yeah, does it suck if you bought tickets and hotel rooms, you got to change it around, plane tickets?
Totally.
I get it.
I got news for you.
The NFL is not, like their business model is not dependent on you sitting in a seat.
It's just not.
And I've gone to NFL games for a decade.
And I would say a decade ago, it was definitely more important.
But in 2003, just like moving forward, your value as an in-season ticket holder, right?
Someone that goes to games, your value to the league is less than mine.
And everyone listening to this that sits on their couch and watches games.
We're more valuable than the guy paying for a ticket.
It's just a fact.
So when I see people online bitching and a moment,
and they don't care about the person at the game.
No, they don't really.
Because the thing that pays the bills in this business
is the television product.
And we just saw Seattle tonight.
Easy watch. Fun watch.
Enjoyable team.
Obviously, the Eagles, one of the best teams
the last couple years.
It means no braider.
You can't throw back Jones, Bailey Zappy,
and Belichick right now in front of the consumer.
It's not fair to us.
The other thing is, as you're seeing some of these television ratings,
once college football kind of ends,
the NFL takes over
December. They've taken over Christmas.
They said, Adam Silver, we're going to run
you over. You're irrelevant.
In a couple weeks, there are three games on Saturday.
The month of December is
massive for the National Football League.
They want to dominate.
They're like a boa constrictor right now,
and they're just squeezing everyone
out that's in their way. And that's
what these games give them opportunity to do.
Tonight, who are they up against?
What else is going on?
They have no competition. Just like
that Monday night game in a couple weeks. They're not
competing it. There's no games that matter
that they're playing against. So
listen, I
feel for the people involved,
right, if it's a fan, if
it's, you know, a coach
that this throws everything off. Hell, to me
if you're the Chiefs, I was looking at their schedule,
this is a pretty big win. Like, you don't want to play
on Monday night. This is a huge advantage
for the Chiefs. If you would ask
Andy Reid, do you want to change? He would
say, hell yeah. Because I, you know,
it's actually during a pretty easy stretch
of their season. He'd rather just play Sunday
Sunday, Sunday, Sunday.
He doesn't want to play Monday, short week.
So if you're the Chiefs, big win,
Eagles, not ideal.
Just giving it, like,
you would rather just get in a rhythm
of not playing Monday night games in December.
Like, I think if you pulled the league,
they would like to avoid it.
It's one thing earlier in the season to get up for.
What you get, you know, in December
headed toward the playoffs,
Sunday, Sunday, seven days rest,
you know, consistency of your schedule.
So big break for the Chiefs to just avoid.
It's in new end.
England? I mean, shit, let's just beg that bad boy out, one o'clock Eastern, get home.
One thing that just won't die, I have read so many articles about Vrable and everything that's going on with Tennessee and just, we've been talking about it for a while.
One thing I've seen, and listen, I understand it because this program, when you have the amount, like, the reason Texas A&M can go, we're going to call Dan Campbell.
Because when they call him, they go, Dan, we'll give you 100.
million dollars.
You can't just say if you're a program, I'll call an NFL coach,
if you don't have the checkbook to write him something to make him listen.
Now, I know Dan claims he didn't listen, but like you pick up the phone because it's so much
money, even if you want no part of it.
Ohio State could do the same thing.
Like, hey, Mike, you want seven years, $100 million?
Like, you name, we'll give you a blank check.
But here's the thing.
And I said this about Dan Campbell, and I'll say it for Mike Frable, because I, until this
story kind of dies with Vrable.
If Mike Vrable does somehow go their separate ways from Tennessee,
I think every single job opening in the pros would be lined up to hire.
I think teams would even think about firing their coach.
If the Patriots were like, yeah, I'll just roll Belichick back one year, they'd fire
him immediately.
Washington be all over, Tepard be all over, the charges be all over.
You want no part of recruiting.
I mean, seeing everything that's going on with the transfer portal NIL, can you imagine
what a pain in the ass that is.
At least with the NFL, March 15, free agency starts.
If you got cap room, you can sign guys.
If you don't, you can't.
Then the draft, like, where are your picks?
It's very black and white what you can do.
You could quote unquote tamper behind the scenes
and see what you get guys for,
but it's like you either have the money or you don't
under the cap space.
You actually have the money,
but if you have the ability to allocate it
towards certain guys or not.
Like in college, can we get a booster
to cut us this check?
Can we figure out how to get this guy?
Can we force this guy out?
We've got to keep this guy happen.
I'd want no part of that.
The NFL, while dramatically more difficult because of the quality of talent spread around the league,
it's a much easier job of just coaching your players, not having to worry about a lot of stuff that's out of your control.
So if Mike Vrable does become available, I can see under, unless I'm wrong, under no circumstances him going to Ohio State.
He'd be crazy too.
Like, you pick your job in the NFL.
Hell, even if you want to sit out a year,
you'd be the number one candidate for the next several years.
You know, there was a story today,
a rest warrant for Von Miller for domestic violence
under his girlfriend in Dallas or Texas area.
I think it's Dallas.
That she's pregnant, claimed he hit her.
Then I just saw during the game.
She claimed, you know, he didn't touch her.
I always say during these things,
absolutely nobody knows except these two people.
And my simple take on this is
the Vaughn Miller signing for the Bills has been an utter disaster.
He got injured last year he tore his ACL.
He came back this year he's a shell of himself.
And I got no clue what happened.
But when you're a Hall of Fame level player,
team captain, team leader,
you can't be during the by week having an arrest warrant put out for you.
It just can't happen.
You know, and I understand some things in life
are out of your control.
if you didn't do anything, but like, it just can't happen.
Like, it's embarrassing for yourself, for the team.
So overall, this signing has just been an utter train wreck for the bills.
And let's face it, when you pay your quarterback a lot of money,
and you've invested a lot of money into, you know, digs
and all these draft picks into the defense,
and you spend a lot of guaranteed money on Von Miller,
and it doesn't work, it's a problem.
Right?
When you only get so many bites at the apple once you pay the quarterback,
you got to make it, you got to make a count.
You really do.
When the Chiefs paid Mahomes,
they have, like, Kelsey's got to be good.
Chris Jones got to be good.
When they make the trade for Tyreek,
they got to hit on those picks.
And they did.
It's why they stayed being good.
But if they hadn't,
like if Chris Jones had just become a scrub,
they'd be fucked.
You know, those type things,
like when you allocate your resources,
when you have a highly paid quarterback,
you got to make it count.
You really do.
and that signing for a lot of different reasons has just been an utter disaster.
Houston, Denver.
I mean, who would have thought that this game would have mattered as much as it does?
And listen, we're going to learn a lot about Denver this weekend.
But I think Houston, whether you make the playoffs,
whether you end up missing to buy a couple games, regardless,
I'd be pretty excited.
You know, for a team that went through everything with Deshawn Watson,
which was just an embarrassment.
I mean, the time when he was like coming to practice, not playing, all the chicks suing him,
him just kind of like acting weird, firing the coaches.
It was, it was Cleveland Brown, Oakland Raider, I mean, just low-level shit going on.
But within the snap of a finger to get D'Amico Ryan, to get C.J. Stroud, to get Tankdell,
Will Anderson, to get some core pieces on your team.
you got Tunzel, you got picks next year,
you're going to have cap space because you have a cheap quarterback.
You got to feel really, really good about yourself.
You got to feel really, really good about the team.
You know, this is just one of those times that sometimes you've got to go like Andy Dufrein
through all the shit to get to the other side.
Now, when you're going through the shit, it sucks, right?
I mean, I was around the Raiders for a long time.
I just felt like they just never got out of the tunnel.
right just never ended right if you're a panther fan you're like god is this ever going to end
when are times ever going to get any better right when things are going good you never think they're
going to stop right if you're a kansas seat chief fan right now you're like fuck football's pretty easy
right if you're if you're a patriot fan for 20 years like god life not bad you know if you're a
bulls fan in the 90s you're like yeah it's pretty good life and then all of a sudden mj
retires you're like god this sucks so in sports it's so dependent on high level building block players
and when you got them, you know, you got to not take them for granted, enjoy it,
and there's nothing better than having young ones.
There isn't where you go.
God, this could last a long time.
And that's what I would be saying,
especially because part of your quarterback discussion is always going to be tied to the guy
that went above him who just looks pretty terrible.
Now, is it all his fault?
We can argue until we're blue in the face.
He looks tiny.
I mean, he looks minuscule.
It looks like me out there.
It's the National Football League.
you got a guy who not only looks the part, plays the part.
So there can't be a better feeling in football than getting a star quarterback
when you know the team above you in the draft took another guy.
And when you also know that your team liked that other guy too.
Like we would have taken that guy, but who cares?
None of it matters, right?
It's like, you know, hell, I would have dated her if she would have gone out with me.
And then you see her on Instagram, you're like, God, she's kind of ballooned.
Thank God I didn't go after her.
Right?
And that's, you know, right now if you're a Houston, Texas fan,
you've got to feel really, really good about yourself.
The Sunday night game is really fantastic
because the Packers, we talked about this a couple weeks ago.
Gutikins went on record.
The last 10 games for Jordan Love
were going to define his ability.
I never understand.
Like, Middilcock, you said Jordan Love sucked.
We did. We all watched it.
You guys agreed.
If you're a Packer fan, you were talking shit too.
We were watching him play, he was awful.
Now, yeah, he hadn't really played,
so it's just basing it off the games he's going off.
It's not like Aaron Rogers has a bad game,
My Homes has a bad game.
Josh Allen has a bad game.
You don't write the guy's career off.
You go, yeah, you had a bad game.
Great player, he'll be fun.
But when you haven't played and then you do play and you don't look good,
what are you supposed to be like?
Everyone take a deep breath.
He's only been in the league four years.
Everything's going to be okay.
No, people were nervous.
I completely understood it.
Hell, I thought he was bad.
These last two games look really good.
Well, now they're playing a really good defense with everyone watching.
At home, the game's going to feel pretty big.
I saw Mahomes say, first time in his career,
going to Lambo.
It's going to be a cool game.
It's going to be one of those games that pops on television.
I'm fired up for it.
I really am.
And I'm really excited to watch Jordan Love.
You know, like, it was the last couple weeks more of a product of the opponents?
Or is this guy just going to be a solid quarterback?
Like, is their offense actually pretty good?
And on the flip side, I told Colin, and I stand by what I said, that, and let me just state this.
I love greatness.
I say it all the time with sports.
I watched Tiger Woods today
who's no longer great and his whole body's fused
but I loved him for a reason
he was the best player to ever see
in sports beside Michael Jordan
he fucking eviscerated everyone he played
I watched sports for Tiger Woods
for Michael Jordan for Tom Brady
maybe you watch for the little overachievers
for like the undrafted free agent
that plays on special teams that bores me
I come tonight for
Dak Prescott CD Lamb
Micah Parsons DK Medcalf
give me the blue chippers
That's why pro sports exists because of the freaks.
Who are the best?
I watched the Barry Sanders documentary the other night.
It's like, God damn, that guy was good.
What awesome documentary, by the way.
I highly recommend it.
It was just remarkable.
It was stupid how good Barry Sanders was.
Played 10 years.
Every year, pro bowler slash all pro.
Every year.
And he's just like, I'm out.
But like, Travis Kelsey is one, and honestly the chief's operation, right?
Mahomes, when Tyreek was there, Travis.
Chris Jones, these are elite champions in the sport of football.
And Travis specifically is one of the most unique tight ends we've ever seen, right?
Definitely one of the most athletic.
And you could argue when it's all said and done the most accomplished.
I admire everything he stands for as a player.
His work ethic, his drive, his desire, his competitiveness, knowing guys there.
I mean, should have text to Andy.
These guys love him.
Like his energy, everything.
People get old.
Like Michael Jordan in 1998 wasn't the same as Michael Jordan in 1993.
He wasn't as good.
He was still a championship level player,
but he was no longer at the same level that he once was.
And these people in Chiefsland, like, I'm not some Chiefs hater.
I'm my favorite AFC team.
But he's not the same.
And as I told Coward,
whenever I see the, it's like, well, he's flying to Argentina and he's hanging out with Swifties
and he's trying to get laid on the bus,
and it's like, it has nothing to do with that.
NFL players are doing, who knows what at night,
you'd be stunned.
He can handle that.
But as a football player,
you get to a certain age,
you're just not the same.
And you never know when it's going to come.
Sometimes it comes for running backs at 29.
Sometimes it comes for guys at 37.
I don't know.
It doesn't mean you can't still be a productive, good player.
Like, Travis Kelsey's still really good.
I'd want him on my team.
I just don't think he's the same.
same elite player than he once was. He was once an A plus. Maybe now, you know, on giving games,
he can be a B plus. Some games he's a B B minus. Still good relative to the rest of the league. Better than 90%
of them. But do I watch him and think that's the same guy that he once was? I do not. Does that
mean I'm being a hater? No. I really like to play. I support him like in the sense of it has
nothing to do with anything off the field. It just strictly has to do with you get old. He's in his
mid-30s. He's been injured now, multiple times this season.
He's, you know, you just, it's harder. Your margin for error gets slimmer.
And that's, you know, a big picture problem for the Chiefs. Maybe they can handle it this
year. Maybe he's got enough in the tank for this year. But if you just think, like, Travis
going to be the same for the next couple years, I'm a big fan. I like the guy. I met him this year
at TPC. We were playing golf. Well, he was hitting balls. I was just kind of drinking,
screwing around. Couldn't it be any cooler. People love the guy. But, like,
It's just as a player, it's hard to maintain that level when you're an all-time great.
Usually don't just say an all-time great if you're a position player for like 15 straight years.
This is not the way it works?
Especially as you get older and get kind of banged up.
So, yeah, stand by what I said.
You know, I've been pretty good on my bowl takes lately.
I'm not going to lie.
I was thinking this week, do I go Packers upset?
I was like, I don't even believe that.
You know, it's hard to pick one of these games, Houston, Denver.
Niners,
like none of those games would be a bold take
if you pick one of those teams to win.
So I'm going to stick with Saturday.
I'm not going to pick Iowa to defeat Michigan.
I'm not going to pick Oklahoma State to take down Texas.
But I think most people, conventional wisdom,
and everyone's going to be hammering the University of Georgia.
They haven't lost a game.
And honestly, since Alabama beat them two years ago
in the SEC championship game,
it's the only game they've lost over the last three years.
They've won back-to-back.
national championships. Kirby Smart
is like the new Nick Saban.
But Nick Saban, Kirby Smart has more national championships
than he does wins over Nick Saban.
And Nick Saban's dominance, I saw Aaron Marie throw this out
on, I think he threw it out on TikTok, but he posted it on Instagram.
His stats in the SEC championship game
are pretty eye-opening. Newsflash, he dominates
this game when he gets there. So, listen, last week,
crazy win.
It's a rivalry game.
Shit gets weird.
Auburn had just lost to New Mexico State.
I saw so many people that cover the SEC
like, this isn't good for Alabama.
They're going to be way more focused.
They clearly were, hell, they should have won the game.
Alabama got very lucky.
I think you get a much, much better version of Alabama.
This is to me, obviously the Pac-12 championship game matters a lot,
though that game's dead after this year.
never exist. Both those two teams are going to the big tent. This is the game that to me, because
all these other matchups consistently suck, that feels like it really, really matters to the conference,
to the players, to the coaches. It's like, it's like a pseudo playoff game. It's a pseudo-super
ball. It just, it feels, the spread is the smallest of all the other games. I'm taking
Nick Saban. I'm taking Alabama. Now, I'm also the same guy that picked them to lose earlier this
season. I thought the dynasty was going to,
got derailed. It didn't. He's a
goat for a reason. He owns a Ferrari
dealership now, worth hundreds of millions of
dollars off the field. Don't sleep on Nick, the
businessman, but you definitely can't
ever question his ability to coach
his football team. And
the reality is, like, no one
wins three straight national championships. That's not the
way it works. Eventually, Georgia
is just like,
I definitely, even if
they won this game, would not pick him to win the Natty.
But I think Alabama,
upsets them, and then I think it sets off like a domino effect of things getting really weird, right?
Because then Georgia would have an argument.
It's Florida State win.
What do they do with the...
I don't know.
But I think Alabama wins this game in Atlanta.
That's my bold take of the week.
Brought to you by Guinness.
Gather your friends.
Raise your glasses.
And toast to a win, Alabama fans.
Guinness draft Stout, imported by Diageo Beer Company, USA, New York, New York.
Please drink responsibly.
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Okay, back at it again.
If you're watching this, I got my guy Stucky from the Action Network.
Make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel.
It's up and running.
We do little gambling content here every single week with, you know, one of the best in the business.
You can find them on the Action Network.
You can find them on Big Betts on campus.
Go subscribe to that as well.
And just firing off tweets left and right when games are rolling.
Stucky, let's do a quick look back to last week.
Starting on Saturday, you know, I had Ohio State in the points, even though I don't even like Ryan Day.
It was just like, that was a lot of points.
It was close.
I thought actually Ohio State, and you've been saying this for a while,
their defense is clearly a lot better than it's been.
They definitely didn't get house, but Michigan covered on that one.
But the big game of the day came on Sunday, Bill's Eagles.
You've been all over statistically.
I mean, it's crazy.
I mean, we're recording this before the Cowboy game.
Their point differential is 100 points difference than the Cowboys.
That's pretty wild, right?
And the Bill's had them.
Didn't just have them on the ropes.
I mean, we're kicking their ass.
but they find a way to fucking win.
Now, the bill's covered, but holy moly, this Eagles team.
I mean, are they going to go 15 and 2 with a point differential of 50?
Yeah, things keep progressing the way that they do.
Luckily, the bills won the toss.
I mean, but the Eagles have had something, well, we'll talk about them in a second,
but they've had something just every week, there's a bunch of things that just break their way to get these wins.
And you've got to give them credit for, you know, they deserve some credits for pulling them out.
week it was the officials I mean some of the missed PI calls there was 10 penalties on the
bills in the first half eight in the first quarter most of any quarter in the league this
year and then the Eagles didn't get their second penalty until a minute to go in the game
then you know then obviously the bills missed two field goals the Eagles at a 60 yarder but luckily
and I was on my knees almost just saying please win the toss and Buffalo luckily did
otherwise they probably would have lost by six.
How about the drive really quick at the end of regulation?
Sean McDermott playing this like prevent defense,
just giving up easy yards and letting them just,
I mean, he gave them 30 yards.
They didn't even have to break a sweat.
It's like, why don't you just play normal?
It's raining.
The chances of them hitting some crazy big play is difficult.
I don't understand.
I understand prevent defense if you're up, you know,
they need to score a touchdown right to tie.
Yeah.
But to go in that position to just play,
way off and give up easy yards.
You're one broken tackle or a juke away from giving up a 25-yard play that way.
I just, I fucking despise that.
Awful.
Yeah.
And then he wasted a time out to, you know, to ice the kicker.
I think in that situation, give the kicker more time with, like, conditions and to figure
out how they want to kick it and, like, get comfortable in the spot.
I think it's bad.
And then because of that, you only have one timeout left.
You get the ball back with 25.
seconds left. You have a kicker with a big leg and then you take a knee. This game was for your
season and you just saw. And a playmaking quarterback with a big arm. Yeah, two years prior,
you kicked off, tied, and the Chiefs scored, you know, went down the field in 13 seconds
and kicked the field goal. And you're leaving so much up to a coin toss. Your season went down to
Quintas. I mean, apparently didn't learn anything. So, yeah, that was a wild game. Fortunately, Buffalo
held on for the cover. Your Ohio State bet, I think there was actually the right side. I mean,
if you go back and look, McCord ultimately just wasn't the guy. He wasn't going to win a national
title with the way that he was playing. But if you go back to that game, questionable touchdown call,
which I actually thought was really an interception. Michigan three for three on fourth down.
and Ohio State
they make the court gift of them a touchdown
with an interception
but they still have a chance to win a game
at the end so I don't think that was a terrible bet
JJ was better than I thought
I mean he played better in that game than he had
to me like the way he had looked previously
yeah yeah I think that they were
he might have been dealing with little something
and I think they were probably just playing everything close to the vest
over the past
over the two previous weeks but
speaking of looking back last week and how did
I was giving you some shit on Twitter
How did your Trager Turkey turn out?
Not bad.
Now, my brother, who is a Trager master, I would say, you know, it wasn't a solo mission.
By the time we threw that thing in at about 1230, brined it for 24 hours.
That's the key.
You got to brine.
So brined it.
Bride it out, you know, about noon on Turkey Day.
A ton of butter inside.
You know, you had it spadge cock so you could kind of break it down.
Butter all over the place, injecting it with butter.
did some seasoning on the outside,
and it took about three hours, you know.
I got this $1,500 Trigger barbecue.
The problem is, it's not really, it's a smoker.
I tried to barbecue some fillets on it.
It's a little weird.
Like, it's obviously made for specific things,
but the turkey is sweet.
I think I'm going to have to, you know,
the ribs, the tritips, some of the pork,
some brisket, you know, things like that.
I'm just going to have to learn on the fly.
I've never been a,
smoker, but now maybe I am.
Yeah, we used to do it.
Very moist.
What's that?
Very moist meat, you know?
Yes.
Yeah.
Once you get it right, I mean, it's amazing.
And, yeah, I guess out your way, you got to get it down for some money,
try-tip sandwiches.
Exactly.
Okay, let's hit on a couple games Saturday.
Obviously, Michigan's an enormous favorite over Iowa.
Bamma, while they were already in this game,
let's face it, they got pretty lucky.
I mean, a great throw, great play,
but to win a game like that,
I mean, holy, maybe it was a football gods
throwing saving a bone back for the kick six way back in the day.
But now, a little like, wouldn't you say a divisional game
where if you have like a 10-win team playing like a three-win team
in late November, early December,
sometimes some of these games are going to be tight.
That game, Auburn, had just lost to New Mexico.
Mexico State, which was probably the worst thing that ever happened to Bama because that's
going to wake them up. It's in Auburn. The place was going bananas. I saw a step this week
that Kirby has more national championships than wins against Sabin. Now, obviously, you know,
he didn't play him last year because LSU beat him. So I would say this version, this Georgia
team over the last three years is a little different than the versions he's had before. It's more
they're equal. But is there something of, you know, mentor versus the mentee? It's obviously one of the
goes. I think this is one of the better coaching jobs Sabin is done? I mean, early on, you're like,
God, is this team going to go like eight and four? I had a scouting buddy that had went through
there. He's like, bro, I've been going through this program for 12, 15 years. I think they are
going to struggle to get to nine wins. And he just, Millroll obviously played better. The schedule,
you know, I mean, they took advantage of it. But they did. I mean, beat the shit out of lane.
like they won that kind of tight Texas A&M game when Texas A&M was kind of still alive and playing well and we know how talented they are.
So they've just played well and they found a way to win that game.
But is this a sucker's bet?
You know, I see it's five and a half or it's just, you know, you can never discount a goat on his, you know, he doesn't have that much longer left.
Yeah, I mean, the fourth and 30, teams were 0 of 90 on fourth and 30 or more over the past two seasons for that play.
Auburn for some reason only rushed two,
which I hate in that situation,
and they had a quarterback spy.
I mean, who cares?
The quarterback runs there.
How does the guy get behind you if you're a DB?
Like, how is all the DBs, you know,
not, there are two, one in front and one behind everybody.
How do you let anyone get behind you?
Incredible, yeah.
Milro does throw one of the most accurate deep balls in NCAA history.
It looked like FARF.
I mean, it had a little loop to it,
but it was a beautiful pass.
Yeah.
Yeah, I agree.
Savin's done a great job this year. If you go back earlier in the season, Milro got benched
before a game when Alabama played at South Florida and almost lost. I think it was six,
six three in the fourth quarter against South Florida. And Bama was a laughing stock. So yeah,
Milro has really turned it around. They made some schematic changes on offense. I don't,
I don't hate the bat. I make it around five-ish, so I don't see much value. I did play a little under
55 and a half, it's, but it's scary because if you go back and look, since 2005, the SEC
championship has, if you just go back and look at the scores, you'll notice this right away,
has gone over 13, 4 and 1.
You get all those premier athletes on a fast track, right?
You're used to, you know, you're now playing in a dome.
There tends to be points, but neither of these offenses have really played.
a good defense all year.
If you look at who Georgia's played,
I mean, Georgia's schedule's been laughable.
Awful.
Their average schedule of opponents
faced from a defensive perspective,
88th.
So they haven't really faced a good defense.
And I trust both defenses more than I do each offense.
Both teams are playing really slow this year, too.
A lot of familiarity in the staff.
So I don't know.
I thought it was a little too high.
Don't love anything there, but you're right.
This is just with the familiarity.
Last time I think Bama was the six-point dog a couple years ago, and they won outright in the FCC championship.
Kind of took it to him.
Kind of took it to them, I remember, in the second half, right?
Yep.
So, yeah, there's so much talent on the field, so much familiarity that if you want to take the dog here, I don't think it's a terrible bet.
I just am pretty close to where the market is.
I think it should be a good competitive game.
Well, to me, the Big 12 championship is like a multiple touchdown game.
Obviously, the Big 10 game, I mean, you could probably make that spread fucking 35 and people probably still take Michigan.
You know, if you're listening to this on Friday, the Pack 12 game, I mean, by kickoff, I mean, it's hovering around 9.5, 10 points.
I mean, that's a lot for a team that Washington hasn't lost.
I mean, these are enormous spreads, right, for championship games.
do you have any in the ACC games a little weird because Jordan Travis had his ankle shattered
so it's hard to even I don't even know what to make of that but of the other three with big spreads
any dog that you like to win outright if you were going to sprinkle a little yeah there
I guess you wouldn't even count Iowa so it'd just be Oklahoma State or Washington yeah the
Oklahoma State I it's hard for me to see them having a chance to winning I mean Gundy
though in these spots against ranked teams and underdog you always team
to overperform, but you can't run on Texas.
Arguably the best run defense in college football,
and the entire Oklahoma State offense is Ali Gordon,
their star running back.
The only time they've been able to throw is when he gets going and it sets up
traction, but no one can run on Texas.
Many teams have tried.
No one has been able to do it, hooting Alabama.
And then on the other side, Oklahoma State secondary is horrendous.
So Texas, and then Texas, look, I'd be able to look, Texas team total over 34 and a half,
I think might be a good look there because they need to win.
They need to win with style.
You know, the committee always says it doesn't matter, but they're humans.
So I think Texas wants to put up a number here.
There's a reason that Texas, that line opened out of the 13 and a half, 14 minutes,
there's been money that crossed that pretty easily.
Yeah, they, when,
I look at those other underdogs.
I think Oregon is going to win this game.
They are the better team.
Washington's offense also just hasn't been right.
But, I mean, it's a very efficient lot.
I mean, it's been priced into it.
There's only been two other instances where an undefeated team,
undefeated top five team has been an underdog of more than a touchdown in the conference
championship over the past 30 years.
it happened with Alabama and Florida back in, I want to say, 2008.
And Alabama was a seven and a half point dog.
They lost by 10.
And then it happened Notre Dame Clemson back in the COVID year.
That's the only other time where the two teams actually played.
So their Notre Dame beat Clemson in the regular season.
and this is when the Notre Dame was in the ACC for that year.
Then in the AC championship, they were 11-point dogs.
They lost by 30.
But keep in mind, Trevor Lawrence didn't play in the first meeting during the regular season.
But this is unprecedented.
Like two top-five teams, you already beat them,
and now you're catching close to double digits on a neutral field.
So, yeah, but I don't see any value in Oregon.
I do think Florida State's going to go down.
This is just the team, look, Florida's defense last week,
Rottomaker, I think it's like a 10-point drop off from Jordan Travis to Tate Rottomaker.
And I think the worst thing that happened to Florida State, obviously besides Travis getting hurt, is Louisville losing to Kentucky last week.
I think they'll come out focused here.
But they had 220 total yards against Florida.
Florida's defense is horrendous.
They'd given up 430 plus yards and four straight games, I think 40 plus every week leading up to that.
Florida State broke a run late and finished with 220 yards of total offense.
I trust the Louisville offense much more games on a neutral field.
Could be a lot of rain.
I think Rodenaker is going to make a couple key mistakes.
And I think Louisville wins that game.
App State, if something in the group of five, I like to.
But, yeah, I think the team that's going to go down that I feel confident the most in the group of five games is Florida State,
which would solve all of the.
the discourse and arguments that are so meaningless because we're never going to have to do this again
on Twitter about most deserving or best teams.
I know.
At the end of the day, look, yes, it's most, it's kind of a hybrid.
It's most deserving, but also you want to put the best teams in.
You use the resume to judge that.
But if the team that lose their quarterback and they're 10 points worse, we know when one, like, you can say it's a committee.
Ultimately, a TV show, you can say you're not in.
I would not put Florida State in.
The one caveat being, look, you have two chances.
Last week, you won, but you were out gaining 225 to 224.
You have one more, you know, chance to prove it.
If Vodomaker comes out of here looks amazing, right?
He has a pretty good Louisville defense with two potential pro corners,
and he throws for, you know, 300 yards, and Florida State wins by two touchdowns.
I'm cool, let them in.
They deserve it, and their quarterback looked competent up.
But if they lose, obviously they're out.
But if they win like 1310 in a month,
get them out.
No one.
I mean, we don't need to wait a month to see Georgia is a 17-point favorite over the Seminoles
with a backup quarterback.
Totally agree.
Before we dive into the NFL, you know, I'm not a, I'm not some recruiting nerd.
I do think this transfer portal when it comes to the quarterbacks is really fascinating.
And I, the Duke quarterbacks in it, obviously Cam Ward.
at Washington State is in it.
Like those type players, whether they go to Ohio State, maybe they go to Florida State,
whether they, you know, wherever they go next year, just has huge implications,
especially now with the 12th team playoff, right?
I mean, there are, sometimes I see a quarterback, it's like, this is a big move.
It's like, this guy was not even good this year.
But there are going to be a couple, and we've seen this now multiple times, right?
I mean, hell, you got Pennix and Bo Nicks.
And I think Bo Nicks is a good example.
there's always going to be a guy that you think,
ah, this guy was kind of shitty,
and then he resurrects his career.
But I think it's going to be fascinating.
Riley Leonard and Cam Ward.
Obviously, I don't know if you saw Matt Rule said yesterday,
the going rate's like $1.5, $2 million for these guys.
And to me, you know, if I was a booster
or part of a program, like, I wouldn't be cutting
$400,000 checks to high school recruits.
Hell, I watched the UCLA guy this year,
five-star chip stolen from Oregon for a bunch of money.
He's fucking terrible.
It's too risky.
But like, you get Cam Ward.
You know, you got a real play.
I'd be like, I'll cut the checks for that.
Listen, you can say what you want.
I think Dion got humbled a little bit this year, but he is right.
Like, we're not going to be an ATM machine for the recruits,
but the transfer portal is a different story.
So to me, Riley Leonard, fascinating guy.
I think Notre Dame feels like an early leader.
And Cam Ward, I think everyone's going to be all over him.
So it's Alabama, I mean, all these teams.
I mean, you're talking huge money.
Yeah, Riley Leonard makes a ton of sense.
Just like, I mean, similar to the Sam Hart.
department move almost like ACC school down on tobacco road, kind of just being groomed and then
transfers up to Notre Dame. But I agree. I mean, Dion is taking that approach. I think in the
recruiting rankings, they're like 60th. They're not good. Yeah. Yeah. So, and then there's,
there's also the trickle-down effect of a team. Now, unfortunately, I still like them this weekend,
but it's dicey. There's a team like SMU that, you know, their quarterback,
Preston Stone is out for the year. The crazy thing about this weekend, one of the most, the hardest
weekends, college championship weekends, conference championship weekends that I've ever had to handicap.
On Saturday, there's 16 quarterbacks that'll play. Nine of the 16 either didn't start the year
as the starter or got benched at one point during the year. And you're going to have a guy,
you know, in Florida State, a true backup who look bad, maybe 10-point drop-off, but still a lot of uncertainty.
And then SMU as a kid who was the highest recruit in program history, Preston Stone,
for Borderline 5 star.
He broke his leg last week.
He's out for the year.
So now you're going to this other kid, huge unknown with Kevin Jennings.
But SMU, their defense did a complete 180.
I mean, they were one of the worst defenses in college football last year.
And if you look, and then this year they were out of this world, top five in success rate.
yards per play allowed.
You look and it's just, you know, there's,
they brought in, I think,
I think nine of their 11 starters were from.
Are they in the Big 12th?
No, they're not, huh?
No, they're probably going to move to the ACC.
Yeah.
Is what the move is there.
But they have like four,
they had like three Miami castoffs.
Guys that were getting time,
but just not starting consistently.
You know, a couple of big 10 guys.
And then, so you can see some of these,
you know, you could just,
it doesn't have to be a,
group of five team. That's what I think is eventually in the ACC. But you can see a team that
does it right. Just all of a sudden one unit can drastically change if you hit on all of your
portal edition. So it definitely, and you couldn't do that with recruiting. You couldn't just
drastically turn around and your entire defense in one season. That takes time. So yeah, it's a whole new
world. We'll see if a team like Clemson continues to be stubborn because it's definitely
holding them back. Let's go to the National Football League.
the Green Bay Packers
who, listen, you just had to go off what you saw
because the guy had never played early on in the season.
I thought he looked terrible.
Now, these last two weeks, the Lions defense is awful
and the Chargers defense is an abomination.
But he kind of lit them up.
I mean, Thanksgiving, before you could even blink,
they had a couple touchdowns,
and he drove right down the field twice.
He looks good.
I mean, no one's ever argued,
and this is the reason they took a flyer on him out of Utah State.
His physical attributes were always really intriguing.
big arm could move
and I mean
listen based on the last two weeks
like they should be pretty excited
he puts a couple more of these together
one they're going to win enough games and two
they're going to be out of drafting a quarterback
he's going to be their starting quarterback next year
is Green Bay for real right now
do they have a lot of momentum was it fake I don't know
but the Chiefs were kind of getting worked
by the Raiders now once a year they tease
the Raiders I've been watching the Raiders for a decade
They love fuck with them for a little bit,
and then they just end up winning.
Sometimes in convincing fashion, like winning a game,
they were down 14-0 and then 31-3 to 3 the rest of the game.
Sometimes it's a walk-off field goal,
but they always do this once a year with the Raiders.
But I don't know.
Listen, they're going to be a tough out because of the coach,
because home field potentially and their quarterback.
But this team does feel a little off, right?
And rightfully so.
They're just not as potent on offense.
There's a lot of points.
this Packer team has some momentum.
The game's in Kansas City, though, correct?
No, Green Bay.
Oh, Green Bay, yeah.
So you're getting points at home.
Who do you like?
Yeah, I like Green Bay here.
Yeah, you're right.
I mean, Kansas City plays with its food every once a year, as you said, when they play
the Raiders.
But what they haven't done in years past with Mahomes is something that also happened
last week is they go through these droughts on offense.
I mean, they went, I think, four straight weeks without scoring a point in the second
half, which is amazing.
I think that they also are plus, I think, 75 or plus 80 scoring margin, plus 58 of that is in the final two minutes, the first half.
The offense is off.
Why receivers are very underwhelming and are dropping too many balls.
They can't find the right rotation.
Both tackles, the tackle spots are playing really poorly.
They replace both tackles.
They both lead the NFL in penalties.
They grate out really poorly.
So Mahomes is under more pressure than why receivers aren't as good.
So, yeah, there's problems with this offense.
It's just completely out of sync.
You'll see flashes because Moines is the best quarterback on the planet.
But you'll also see these just a court.
They'll go a whole half without scoring, despite having Moons.
And Green Bay's defense should be healthier this week.
It's just a good spot, too, for the Packers.
They played on Thanksgiving.
You get extra rest, extra prep here.
They're basically playing for their season.
Yeah, you could still make the playoffs.
The NFC is bad at the bottom.
But you win this game.
You're right back in the mix.
and the Chiefs, you know, they're coming off their second straight road game for, you know, an out-of-conference game against a Packers team that's under 500.
The Chiefs have the Bills next week.
A little bit of a sleepy spot, even though it's in prime time.
But Jordan Love is playing his best football all the year, as you alluded to.
And this offense is finally clicking.
And that makes sense to me because, number one, their offensive line got healthy.
They did a deal with a bunch of offensive line injuries around the year.
but you have Jordan Love and basically like three or four rookie wide receivers.
So it makes sense that there was growing pains early, that they had to figure some things out.
And it also makes sense once that, you know, a very young core gets confidence that they're going to be able to build on that and then you're going to see some good results.
I think that's what's happening right now.
So, yeah, I just don't trust this Chief's offense to win by margin.
And if you go back to week seven, and this speaks to kind of the assent.
of the Packers' offense and the struggles of the Chiefs offense since week seven.
If you look at all quarterbacks, the NFL, and look at adjusted EPA per play, which adjusts for opponent.
Jordan Love, 9th, Mahomes, 10th.
Adjusted completion percentage.
Mahomes 11th.
Love 12th.
And Love is averaging two more air yards per attempt, throwing it down field more.
So I'm not trying to compare.
love in Mahomes. That just speaks to the issues on the Chiefs offense right now. A lot of them
drops on the offensive line and how well, how much better this Packers offense playing.
So, yeah, I think there's a bit too many points. This is when you want to fade the Chiefs.
And they'll probably find a way to win by a field goal. But I think the Packers are live and
was happy to take the six points. Well, I mean, all the Packer wide receivers, Andy would gladly
take. Yes. I mean, all the young guys, they would, actually, they,
they would fit perfectly in that offense.
He'd be throwing bombs to Watson, 11.
He would like them all.
Yeah.
So, yeah, I like them all.
I mean, they're an intriguing young offense if Jordan Love is going to be more than
functional.
Yeah.
Okay.
This game's big.
And if I would have told you two months ago that, you know, one of the biggest games
of the week is going to be Houston and Denver.
You'd be like, what?
And obviously, Denver is just rattling off wins.
Russell is not near the same
what he used to be in his prime
but he is much more functional
as a player than he was when it looked
like he was completely shot
and to me their defense like last week against the
Browns they were
every bit as physical if not more
like I'm not the biggest fan's Joseph guy
and fuck how could you be when he gives up 70 points
but they have been much better
and they don't exactly I mean this saying
Steve Atwater walking through the door here
Houston to me I've always said
this year, even as they've gotten, like, I mean, they're pretty good.
There's no doubt.
They feel like a year away.
I mean, they got a lot of picks.
They're going to have more cap room.
But I don't know.
I mean, C.J. Stroud, Tankdale, Stud.
I mean, they are, obviously, their coach is really good.
I just, they're that team to me this year that's going to end up, you know, eight and nine.
That was like, when they win 11 next year, you're going to be like all those games that we didn't quite win.
We win next year.
I would take the Broncos.
Maybe I'm drinking too much of the Sean Payton Kool-Aid right now.
Yeah, I like Houston here.
Look, Strattie might have his full receiver room for the first time since week one.
He's great.
He also rips apart, cover three, which will see a lot of when he plays Denver.
And the Broncos blitz a lot, don't get pressure.
They blitz at the 11th highest rate.
They're getting pressure to bottom five rate.
Stroudon with a clean pocket this year, been the best quarterback in the NFL.
and it has actually handled the blitz pretty well.
Still young, still an experience.
If you can get pressure on him without needing the blitz,
that's when some trouble arises.
But that's not something the Broncos can do.
And look, the Broncos defense is drastically improved.
They made some changes.
They got, you know, guys like Browning and Joe's back healthy in the front seven.
They put McMillan stud rookie in a slot.
They removed Tamari Math was one of the worst corners of the NFL.
They took him out of the lineup, put in Fabian Moreau,
just a more serviceable vet.
a guy you're going to get targeted
with your opposite certain. So the defense definitely
has improved, but it is still
a bad defense. They've won
five straight, and
if you dig into it a little more, I mean,
three of them came by a total of five points.
They have a plus
14 turnover
margin over the past
five games. Teams have turned it
over 16 times,
and they've only turned it over twice.
That has driven 40%
of their points.
And if you remove the, and they're only average.
Because that Chiefs game that they won, they had five, right?
Yeah, and you're playing Mahomes with the flu.
Even last week with the Browns, I mean, their entire defense gets hurt,
yeah, DTR gets hurt.
But all these turnovers have allowed the Broncos to just keep playing how they play.
Like, they just want to hand it off, give Russies, like, easy throws.
They're not a scene that's built to come from behind.
And if you look, since week seven, that's when, you know,
they made some of these changes on the defense and they've improved and they have because
they're not the historically bad unit we saw earlier in the year. But if you remove turnovers,
they are 25th in EPA per play, 24th in success rate. In comparison, the Houston defense,
16th and 5th. So, and the Houston defense's been really good against the run. That's, yeah,
and Denver doesn't throw it down field, which is where you have to attack Houston. So there's a lot of
bounces that have been going Denver's way, which I think have inflated the perception on the
Broncos. They've also forced 14 fumbles on the year. They've recovered 12. No other teams
recovered more than nine. They've had extreme turnover luck. I think this is a good matchup.
I think Houston will, especially for the offense, I think they're going to jump out to a lead.
And I don't think Denver, if they're not getting turnover luck, can keep up here. For what it's worth,
in week 12 or later, if underdogs on a four or more game winning streak, so later in the
year of won at least four straight, have gone 26, 47, and four against the spread. That's 35%
over the past 20 years. That includes 926 and 1, 25% against the spread in non-division
matchups against teams of the winning record. If you're on the cover by about double digits on average,
that applies to this game.
So I'm really selling high.
I think it's a good match for the eastern offense.
I'm selling high in the Denver luck.
But that applies to this game.
And it also applies to my other favorite bet, which is the 49ers.
Yeah, let's dive into the heavyweight matchup.
My logic is simple.
I think the Eagles just going to run out of juice.
Like, they got to be exhausted.
Right.
You go to the chiefs on the road Monday night football.
You pull out a crazy win.
Six days later, you go into overtime.
Most of your defensive players are playing 70 to 90 snaps.
The 49ers have kind of, since they got healthy,
have had a couple easy games.
They just played on Thursday night,
so they get three extra days to chill.
There's an element of everything that happened last year.
Once the Eagles won the Bills game,
let's face it, this game is not as important, right?
I mean, they got the Cowboys the next week.
I think the Niners won by like 10.
I agree.
This Eagles team's been getting extremely lucky.
You got to give them credit for the wins, but every week it's something new.
They've won four straight games.
And in each, they trailed at the half.
They were out game by 100 plus yards.
And they, I mean, they should have lost to the Cowboys at home.
He saw all those red zone failures.
They should have lost to the Chiefs if they don't drop all those balls and the game-winning pass.
And the Chiefs, you know, don't give them an interception.
I don't know what Milams is doing.
A Kelsey Fumble in the Red Zone.
Last week it's the officials.
You know, four weeks ago it was Washington in a back and fourth game.
They also could have lost Washington in the first meeting.
They went for two.
That game went to overtime.
This team's seven and one in one possession games, getting every bounce.
And you said it.
Not only is a good situational spot from the fact that San Frans had this game.
San Francisco has had this game circled since last year, right when they lost that
Tennessee championship game and they had to play with Christian McCaffrey's quarterback.
I'm assuming since that game ended, Shadhan's been working on the script for this game.
So they should have an amazing script here.
They've had this game circle, but the scheduling spot is amazing.
You know, they got their Super Bowl.
The Eagles got their Super Bowl revenge in Kansas City.
And again, they went the full 60 minutes.
Short week, come back, play Buffalo.
And King goes to overtime, exhausting efforts.
They're defense on the field for 92 snaps.
Not only that, they had injuries.
They won't have linebacker Cunningham.
A couple of their defensive linemen, including Fletcher Cox, got banged up.
That means like Jordan Davis, Jason Carter.
they played career highs and snaps, like 68, 70 snaps for those big guys.
I think the Eagles are going to be out of gas here.
And then you mentioned with San Francisco, extra time to prepare and rest.
They're finally fully healthy.
And when they have Debo and Trent Williams in Atlanta, they're 8-0 with an average
scoring margin of 21 points this season.
And they've had three straight blowout wins.
Like, they should come in with completely fresh legs here.
And I think it's a really good matchup.
The Eagles defense is not playing well.
They have problems in the secondary.
Slay and Bradbury aren't getting any younger.
And you can attack the Eagles over the middle of the field and then the slot.
They can't cover tight ends.
I mean, that's a nightmare.
They also play a ton of cover one, which pretty just dominate some of the best numbers in NFL history for a single season this year against cover one.
They can't cover slot receivers or tight ends over the middle of the field.
Well, good luck with Debo and Kittle, I think you're going to have massive games here.
And then on the other side of the ball, the Eagles, he might not have Lane Johnson.
He says he's going to play.
He usually would play in a situation like this, but it could be some rain,
groin injury.
Usually, you know, with your star offensive line, that's what happened last week.
You don't want to play.
Wouldn't you, once you won last week and you didn't need them,
if there's any question, wouldn't you just try to save them for the cowboy game,
which is much bigger, you can basically COO them,
assuming we're recording this before the cowboy game.
They've won, and that game, like, all of a sudden you lose this game,
that game is enormous.
Yeah.
And same goes for Goddard.
They really miss him.
They basically just don't have a third guy to throw it to.
They miss him on the red zone and throw him third downs.
And Hertz is getting healthier, but you can still tell he doesn't have the full burst.
And when you don't have to worry about him running at full speed, that offense is much easier
to defend.
And, you know, the 49ers offense went fully healthy, which it is right now.
You know, their Berford practice, their office of line should be at full strength.
I think it's the best offense in the NFL, and it's also a good matchup here.
But not enough people are talking about the 49ers defense.
And the 49ers defense, one, they've been great over the past five weeks.
Why?
Because, one, they added Chase Young, which is the biggest weakest on a defense.
You had no other really defensive end opposite both of that defense,
that opposing offenses had to respect.
Add Chase Young in there.
does that mean, number one, you have Chase Young now there, but also Bosa, Armstead, Hargrave,
get much more, they get many more one-on-one matchups. So the pressures increased. We know
they have the coordinators are one of the best linebacker groups in the NFL. But when the pressure
goes out, obviously it helps your defensive backfield, which is also improved because
they took out Isaiah Oliver, who was in the slot playing at an atrocious level.
86% reception percentage allowed worst of any corner in the NFL.
He allowed 35 catches on 40 targets.
Got him out of there, moved Lenore to the slot where he's better suited with his skill set.
And then they moved in, they put in Ambrie Thomas outside.
And then him in Ward, you know, if you go by some, you know, PFF or other, they've been top 15 corners.
And in this particular matchup, I think similar to what they did against Seattle, who has like a big physical receiver and then a
you know, I have a shift-in-fee-year-guy with Metcalf and Lockett is you can have
board match up with the physicality of Brown, and you can have Thomas match up with the, you know,
shifty or quicker Devonte Smith.
So I think it's a really good matchup for the defense.
And this Eagles offense is just out of stake the defense isn't playing that well,
especially against the past.
I think Cardi should have a big day.
And then the Eagles are just due to not get a bunch of bounces.
And they're going to be exhausted, like you said.
So, yeah, I love this bet.
I think the 49ers won by 10 plus as well.
And I also think, like, people are like,
middle guy for just a homer.
Well, the Eagles probably be my second team in the NFC.
But the reality is if the Niners win this game
and the Eagles still take care of business
and are the number one seed,
I don't think the NFC,
I wouldn't handicap assuming they're both healthy
and the Eagles have got a little rest
because they get the only buy.
Do you think this line would stay the same
for the NFC championship game
or is more of a pick-em given once we come around?
or does it depend
how everyone looks?
Yeah,
I mean,
the 49ers right now,
like from a power rating perspective
are probably at their peak.
You know,
they're coming off three blowouts.
Guys are healthy.
Yeah,
everyone's healthy.
It can't get any higher.
You're week 13.
Right now,
they are power rated
as the best team in the NFL
by anyone
that's respected in the market,
odds makers.
And,
you know,
so,
I mean,
that's why the Eagles are 10 and 1
and they're,
it's the first time in,
In NFL history, a team has been an underdog in week 13 or later with a winning percentage of 90% plus.
And if you remove, it's happened with when teams are sitting their starters in the last week.
But this, I mean, this is unprecedented.
Their power rating is sky high.
Now, the Eagles have injuries.
They're not playing that well.
And they're exhausted.
like in this situational spot that we talked about,
that's all priced into it.
So, you know, you get Goddard, Johnson back,
you get some guys back on defense,
the offense looks better.
I would imagine you'd probably see, like,
San Fran minus one pick in the NFC championship game.
Yeah, maybe a pick.
The Eagles look a lot better.
But if I'm an Eagles fan, to tell you the truth,
I would want to lose this game.
you're probably going to see San Fran.
You're probably going to end up getting the one seed.
After this gauntlet ends, I mean, Seattle's not playing while either,
but after the gauntlet ends against Dallas,
their schedule gets pretty easy.
Good chance they win out.
I think they lose this weekend next week personally,
and then went out, finished 14 and 3.
You're probably going to get the one seed.
You want the angry San Fran team,
lost you twice, and just psychologically.
when it ultimately doesn't matter.
I think this game means a lot more for the 49ers.
It definitely does.
It definitely does.
And they're just not playing well right now.
They're getting every bounce in this a bad situational spot.
And for what it's worth, teams that have a 90% plus winning percentage in week 12 or later over the past 20 years, sample size of about 60 games, they've gone 35% against.
the spread, which makes sense.
In order to get to a 90% plus winning percentage in week 12 or later,
you're usually probably at the peak of your market value,
which isn't necessarily the case here.
But you have a teams that know people don't want to fade.
So there's usually value in fade in them.
And then in order to get to a 90% winning percentage in the NFL,
no matter how good you are, you have to have a lot of luck.
So there's also some regression that's coming.
And that's certainly the case with the Eagles who have been,
very fortunate a number of ways.
So, yeah, I love the spot.
I love the situation.
I love the matchup on both sides of the ball.
I love the health rest advantage.
You name it.
Hopefully the Eagles aren't down by seven with the ball
a minute to go in the fourth quarter
because they'll somehow find a way to win.
And I'll go for two and win it.
One variable is that, and I know he played at Iowa State,
so he's been, he spent four or five years
I guess he was a four-year starter, and I think he started early, so in cold, awful weather, practicing in the spring.
So it's not like he's never seen weirdness.
But that Cleveland game, when it was raining, it got a little weird with his grip, that being Brock Purdy.
So that's, you know, the forecast potential rain on Sunday is definitely just something to keep an eye on.
Yeah.
Last year, I think against Seattle in the playoff game, it was raining early.
The ball was coming out of his hand a little, just a little different.
And, you know, when it's, when conditions have been perfect, people talking shit about him are just trying to talk shit about him because he was seventh run pick.
He's fucking been good.
Yeah.
You know?
But that, that rain thing is definitely something that would keep it.
Everyone's a little, I would say, nervous in 49er land with him.
Because there's no way, I saw Jalen ask about this yesterday in the press conference.
He's like, it is an advantage when we're playing a team that you just practice in it.
They can't practice in it.
So it's like, it's, I don't know what the weather is right now in Santa Clara, but it ain't porn.
rain. Yeah, no, it's an astute point. I was actually going to bring that up in that if Philly
has home field advantage, that's something to watch in. I mean, although there's a ton of win in Santa Clara,
but there's been times where Purdy and Inclimate weather has not looked great. There,
so I looked into that for sure. Do you remember that from college?
Yeah, I mean, he was at the, I don't remember being a thing, but he would, he just,
was inconsistent at times.
He was great in October, and then the weather would get worse.
So I guess, and then he wasn't as good.
So maybe it was weather related.
I'll have to dig into that a little bit.
But it's not, I mean, he has small hands.
Yeah, he has small hands.
So it's definitely a thing.
So that's something to watch for if these teams play again in conditions in the playoffs.
If it's in Philly, what are the weather.
Maybe these were a glove.
Yeah, because it's, what I did look into it, it's, there's going to be no win.
it's going to be, you know, 60 degrees, and the rain is going to be bad.
So you could see occasional showers, but it's not going to be a downpour.
It's not going to be terrible conditions.
As of right now, it could change the fucking weather, who knows.
But it's not going to be really bad because that is something I look at because, yeah,
there's been some times where I have watched Purdy in really bad conditions.
And because of his hand size, he'd say, oh, maybe.
this gets iffy. I don't think it's going to be bad enough out to where that matters, but
that's definitely worth pointing out. This is a good week. Hell, it starts Friday night with a big-time
Pac-12 game. Adios to the Pac-12, but thanks for giving us one last fun ride this year. And
Saturday's a fun day, and obviously Sunday's just a massive day. I mean, there are just some
playoff games. Even that, now the Green Bay is good, that Green Bay can't City game is awfully intriguing.
So at least we got that because
Jags Bengals, that was going to be good.
But now it's not on Monday night.
Oh, my God.
We've gotten some curveballs with some of these primetime games.
But I guess football is better than no football.
So we can complain all we want, but I'd rather have a game on even if it's shitty.
Yeah, of course.
Back to July.
Took us the limit.
Exactly.
That's all you got to think.
July, June.
You'd be begging for Browning versus the Jags.
By the way, you didn't mention this week what you
your big Sunday bet's going to bid.
49ers? Yeah, I mean, that's what I feel the best.
I did like Denver, but the way you kind of just convinced me, I mean, that's, that is a little,
you're right. I mean, I bet when you dive into the numbers, the turnover stuff,
I mean, that, like you said, their biggest win of that stretch is Kansas City, and that was kind of a
unique deal.
Yeah, you're also, you're buying them high. It's on five straight. That's not really, usually
when you want to buy teams. But I agree.
I'm pretty confident on the Niners right now, I agree.
Assuming everyone's healthy.
That's my favorite bet.
Favorite bet of the weekend.
Because when Trent and Debo have played, they have dominated.
Eight.
Those guys were out.
Three touchdown margin on average.
There is just a swag that comes, it's the combination of those two guys because Trent is so physical and they can do so much.
Kyle loves running the ball and all the play action is based off going the other way to his right tackle side.
And then Debo is just, you know, he's just a unique player, you know.
And they have no one that can cover him or Kittle.
It's a great match.
Well, my one issue is, you know, if this is golf or boxing or UFC, like, you can talk shit and you can back it up.
Like, Debo hates these dbs.
He thinks they're scrubs, especially Bradbury.
But it's like, well, what if Hassan Reddicks likes Bradbury and takes it out on Colton McKivitz?
That's the only thing.
Like, you can't speak for like, ultimately Burford and Brendel have to block the two Georgia defensive tackles.
So yeah, like you can dominate, but can your other guys handle themselves?
That's the only thing like because the Eagles, this is an easy one.
Like we beat these guys last year.
Debo has given them some motivation of like not backing down from all the shitty talk.
Which again, like I have no, Debo can say whatever he wants.
He's a fucking war dad.
He's proving it in the biggest games.
But some of his teammates make me a little nervous on offense.
And it starts with the right tackle.
And the one thing that also makes me nervous is Kyle's scheme, you know,
just a lot of just zone play action.
The Eagles are used to seeing that stuff in practice.
So last year when he ran that play,
they got Purdy hurt.
Like, it's hard to fool Reddick or Brandon Graham
or some of their edge rushers.
They're used to seeing like they're not biting on the run
down the line of scrimmage and letting Purdy walk.
So to me,
Purdy's got to be, especially early in the game,
just careful.
Because I just don't think their ends are going to bite
like some of these teams that they just annihilate.
And Hassan Reddick,
I mean, last week,
when he slammed Josh Allen.
That was like an old school Lawrence Taylor level play.
And I think he's going to be coming for Bertie, try to KM.
I just think Brock and Kyle have to be very careful early on.
Now, if they get a little, maybe you kind of tap out,
but I do think early on those defensive linemen are becoming for the little quarterback from Iowa.
Yeah, I think they'll have, it's a good point because that is the one priority that I'm most worried about
That would be just the other offensive linemen next to Williams against that Eagle's front.
But, I mean, they're exhausted.
I mean, I don't think Cox is going to play.
They just got banged up.
They played so many snaps last week.
So they just might not have.
Their linebackers are terrible, and Kyle's scheme annihilates.
Yeah.
And I think, look, they've had this game circle.
So I'm assuming, and they have extra time.
So I'm assuming the script will be really good, get a lead.
And then that defense is going to wear down as the game goes on.
But yeah, that would be my concern, too.
but assuming no flukes and the voodoo for the Eagles runs out,
I think the 4-9ers is the best bet it would become.
Have you seen the Steelers schedule, like the next four weeks, by the way?
I think it's a joke, right?
They get the joke, right?
You're going to look up.
I mean, worst case, they're going to be 10 and 5.
They might be like 11 and 4.
You're like, what?
How is this possible?
I picked them to be like in the AFC championship game.
I don't think they're going to get there.
And I never thought if they went 114, it would have looked like this.
But it's kind of on the table when you look at who they're playing.
They are, they're living a unique football life this season.
I'll give them that.
Yeah, they get the Cardinals this week, should win that game,
the Patriots, with who knows what the quarterback's going to be,
the Colts, the Bengals with another backup,
and then finish Steelers, Seahawks, Ravens.
So yeah, they're going to be right in the mix.
And the funny, we'll see if their offense,
Pickett finally threw over the middle of the field last week,
between the hashes.
Their offense, I think the-
What if they're like the two-seat?
I mean, what if somehow they win the division?
Well, if the bills sneak in, the bills would be like four-point favorites on the road in the opening week.
The bills are, I mean, you watched last week with the way Josh playing.
They can't be dead.
I mean, beside the Eagles, who beats them last week?
And then like the Niners and maybe the Chiefs, you know, it's like they're beating every team in the league.
Yeah, there's seven teams that I think, based on everything I look at.
There's only seven teams that can win the Super Bowl this year.
And then there was a big drop-off.
And the bills are in that mix, and they might have made the playoffs.
It's the Bills, the Ravens, the Chiefs,
the Dolphins.
Niners Cowboys Eagles.
That's it.
And the problem with the Bills is you have a lot of these teams ahead of them.
Like, for example, the Texans of Broncos play each other this week.
A lot of them play the Bengals too without Burrow coming up.
But the Colts and Texans play each other.
There's like a bunch of free wins.
And they go, the bills play the Chiefs, then the Cowboys, then the Dolphins.
Their schedule might just fuck them.
So they got a win at.
that you so but if they get in um and then they sneak in as the seven and you're the two in the
iFC you're saying oh fuck but the best stat of the weekend was the steward's finally got to 400 yards
the last time they got to 400 yards was the game before matt canada took over his offensive
coordinator they went like 55 games without getting to 400 yards and then they got get 400 yards
the day after he's the game after he's gone uh just amazing uh so maybe they're all
offense will have more juice. I've never heard a team and I get it's been a long time so I and that
number specifically celebrate like you would never hear a good team talk about yardage if they had 16
points. It would never come. I mean never you'd just be like we got to score more points got to be
better in the red zone all we heard all week yeah 422 yards 40 it's like you guys scored 14 16 points 16
points yeah hilarious uh I'm assuming they're just tired of talking about that but that does
very, very telling.
I would get it if they had scored 28 points, right?
It'd be like awesome, 400 plus yards, 28 points, 16 points.
Yeah.
It's like the Patriots.
I mean, it just, okay, well, Sunky, keep an eye on those Steelers, man.
They're coming.
Take it easy, bro.
Absolutely, good luck to speak in, and see you next week.
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