The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 and Out  - Weekend Mailbag: Trey Lance Window, Anthony Richardson Debate, Lamar Market

Episode Date: April 2, 2023

John empties out the Middlekauff Weekend Mailbag and answers listener questions on if Trey Lance still has a chance to start over a healthy Brock Purdy, if there’s too much hype surrounding Anthony Richardson, if more teams should be interested in Lamar Jackson, and what it would take for another pro sport to overtake the NFL.Subscribe NOW and follow Middlekauff and The Volume on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest content and FanDuel for the best wagering action! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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At John Middlecoff is the Instagram. You fire in those DMs. You get on the show. Very easy to do. We do one on the weekend. I put another one at the end of Tuesday's podcast. This week will probably be pretty masters heavy. Maybe a football podcast or two.

But I would imagine we will have multiple go lows because it's the masters. so this will be a football heavy podcast. And firing those DMs. At John Middlecoff, DMs wide open. You guys know the drill. But before we dive into your questions, listen, I got to tell you about my friends. They are now the official ticket app of the three and out podcast. Thank my friends a game time enough because of you guys.

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You download the app. promo code John $20 off. These inflationary times, just trying to throw you guys a bone. I accidentally deleted this question. I didn't mean to, but I read it right before I was going to read it. And it basically asked if, Trey Lance, let's say Brock Purdy can't come back to like the Halloween. So he misses seven or eight games.

And Trey Lance during that time beats out Sam Darnold. And then he's the starting quarterback. And he goes on to play as well, if not better than Brock Purdy. Would he keep his job? And the answer is 100% yes. I think the NFL is pretty black and white with quarterbacks. If you're a top, you know, 10-ish guy, you're kind of on scholarship, especially once you get paid.

Because you've proven to be a winning starter. when you're healthy, you play. Then we start getting to the line of like 13, 14, 15, and beyond. You can't not play for a month or two and have the backup, whether that's a highly touted backup, whether that's a late round pick, come in and ball out and keep your job. And to me, Brock Purdy is under the line of delineation of on scholarship.

I would say the best version in recent memory was Alex Smith, with Jim Harbaugh, remember he had a concussion. Kaepernick came in, got Wally Pipped. Now, big picture, I think the right move would have been Alex Smith. He sustained it for much longer, but in the short term, it was 100% the move. That season and the next, right? Kaepernick got them farther. I mean, the team was different than some of his teams in Kansas City.

But it's, you know, I would say right now the line of delineations like Dak Prescott, you know, cousins, even though he's on his last year of a contract, he's kind of unique. But you know what I mean. You know, any, the Mahomes, the Herberts, the Lawrence's, obviously the Brady's, that group of guys, the high-end older guys. You just, you're not getting Wally Pipped. You know, it's just not happening.

Rock Purdy, I'm bullish on him, assuming he is healthy, but he's not nearly at that level. If Trey Lance were to have success. Pretty surprised. This is from Jeremy, your Richardson take. As a Gator alum, I can't help but question. all the hype around Richardson with virtually no tape. Shouldn't it be concerning that Richardson's best game came in week one?

There's nothing on film that screams. He's really consistent in this area. All of Gator fans couldn't understand for most of the season, Richardson would not run. He refused. No impact plays with his legs. We didn't know if it was a coaching decision or hesitancy on his part. Also interested to hear about what his medical say because the dude is made out of glass.

He does not take hits very well at all. would get up Gimpy pretty much every game. He played him. He has known hamstring issues since high school. So listen, my take was simple. I understand like the questions of this player. Would I pull the trigger if I drafted number one? I would not.

I was just reiterating to you what I'm hearing around the league. People are very bullish on this guy, right? Obviously his physical attributes speak for themselves. And here's a thing. You know, in college football, not every coach is viewed as an equal. If you go to Alabama or Ohio State and our average or not good, like they hold that against you, right? Especially at quarterback, because usually you're playing with the best players. Look at Bryce and CJ.

They're really good players and they dominated. But like when you go to Florida, non-urban Meyer years, it's been pretty rocky. And Billy Napier, who had a lot of hype coming into the year, let's face it, he's won six and six season again away from getting fired. So I think people You know It's hard There's no perfect prospect at most schools And when you get a guy with this much upside

And part of the reason that I Talked about it the other day Is people are high on the guy People have been very impressed with the person The character stuff is high And it all comes down to like once upon a time Now most things are not apples to apples Jalen Hertz

His teams were very successful but he fucking played at Alabama and Oklahoma. Unless it's Venables, those two programs win every single year, big. And he had a lot of success. And now he's become a really good player. But like prospect wise, I mean, they're not even close. And there are people to say, like, look what they got this guy to do over time. Imagine what Shane Seichen could get Anthony Richardson to do at number four.

So do I think he's going to go number one? Probably still pretty unlikely. But I think he's going in the top five. That's what everyone in the NFL thinks. So I'm just telling you, I get a lot of red flags. Most red flags are most prospects. Like I talked about, there are no high floor prospects. They do not exist.

The most talented prospect in this draft, you're probably seeing all the reports and who knows if they're true, but it's a major red flag. I don't know which draft boards he's off. I know it's been reported specific teams. He's going to be off draft boards. And teams are definitely going to pass on them, at least in the first round, for those reasons.

So, you know, listen, I would hesitate doing it. I would take Bryce Young. Though, like, once I start really digging in, people run the league and be like, bro, he weighs like almost 170 pounds. Don't let that 200 pound creatine milkshake induced fake weight fool you. He's 170, 175 pound player. Now, I watched that guy play pretty damn good, but, you know, it's a flawed quarterback class. And on the flip side, I had a guy make this point. He said, Liam Cohen, who is now the offensive coordinator of Kentucky.

Well, a couple years ago, he was on the RAM stat. Mark Stoops or Mike Stoops or whatever Stoops brother, I think it's Mark, the attack Kentucky hired him. And Will Levis had a good season. And he started getting hype when he chose to return. I guess he's a junior now. It's hard to keep up with the COVID grades. But I don't think he was draft eligible.

could be mistaken last year. So he comes back to school. Well, Liam Cohen goes back to the ramps. And they hired this guy named Rick Scangerello, who around the league is not very highly thought of, has been fired by the Eagles, has been fired essentially by the 49ers and has now been fired by Kentucky. So the guy that I talked to's point was, if Liam Cohen had just not left after Will Levis's 2021 season and stayed with him for two years, there's a decent chance we'd be talking about this guy as the number one overall pick in this draft. But this year, season didn't go well. I don't know if you heard Collins rant the other day.

A little too into lifting right now. But the football is a little bit of a question mark. But I think people in the NFL will tell you, well, who's his offensive coordinator? He ran an NFL scheme because Rich runs the Shanahan offense. But who was the guy implementing it and calling it? It's a guy that most people around the league, I think, question, right? Kind of from what I've heard of know it all and gets run out of town in the SEC and in the NFL. So these situations are very, very complicated.

With quarterbacks, there are, I don't know, 20 variables. I mean, so many variables besides just like a throw or physical attributes. Like who's the coordinator? Who's he throw and do? What's his level of competition? What's the offense? Who, you know, what's, how long has he had the same offensive coordinator? Who's the offensive line coach?

And this is all in college. So I'm not saying I'm pounding the table for Anthony Richardson number one overall. I'm just saying it's in play. And I understand it. Like over like Trevor Lawrence or Andrew Locke or a Peyton Manning. Of course, he wouldn't be talked about. But in this quarterback class, all these guys got flaws. From Chicago, it looks like no other team is going to trade for Lamar.

And the only team that has been a little interested has been the Colts. Do you think there's a real possibility? they just go for the best player available at 4 or trade back. And if they don't land a quarterback in the draft, they look to pivot in the trade market, Lamar or Trey Lance. The way it's been described to me, and this makes sense, Shane Steichen got so much credit. Because most people, and you know this if you're an Alabama fan

or an Oklahoma fan, what Jalen Hertz is now, it's fucking incredible. Like, it's, I don't want to say borderline insanity, but it's really, really impressive. But he was not remotely that good at Oklahoma, which obviously was his best year in college. And Shane Steichen, by that Super Bowl, had turned him in like an even foe to Patrick Mahomes.

I mean, he was incredible in that Super Bowl. In the biggest game, literally, humanly possible, every single year, the Super Bowl, Jalen Hertz looked like a Mahomes, you know? So what Shane Stuyken did with him is really, really, really, incredible. So people that I talk to, this is where I get the Anthony Richardson thing. If you can do that with that guy, can you do it with Anthony Richardson? And, you know, listen, I can speak to Jalen's character better because I know people at Oklahoma. I know people in

Philly. It's elite. The work ethic, the focus, the whole total package. Obviously, the teammate aspect. I can't speak on that as confidently with Anthony Richardson. That's what separates Chandlin. And when you work really hard, especially at a position as hard as quarterback, you know, his improvement has been just immeasurable. It's pretty wild from where he came out of college to what he is now. And he had a damn good coach in college, both places. I mean, Lane and then Lincoln Riley. I mean, he has, his offensive coordinator at Alabama was, you know, is now like a $9 million head coach. I don't think Trey Lance, to me, Tray Lance, the only way he's available, and here would be my theory,

Trey Lance gets beat out this offseason for what would essentially be the number two quarterback by Sam Darnold. But then if Brock is not able to play and Sam comes in and plays well, and then Brock returns, I think you could see Trey Lance traded by the trade deadline. but I don't think he's trade bait this offseason. And given the 49ers injury history, I really, and how much they've already invested in them, I have a hard time seeing them trade them in like training camp.

Now, if he's clearly the quarterback three throughout the season, then I think it's not crazy to just punt and trade them to, you know, depending on, you know, the Colts fight. By then you guys might have an Anthony Richardson could be playing and looking fine. that's why it's hard to do you know some of this stuff when we talk about trades and even some of these free agents

that are out there until you know who teams draft like once a team takes a quarterback some of these teams in the first you know 10 picks and who knows maybe there'll be a curve ball or two it changes the way we feel about that team and kind of their needs

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I'm Britt living in Dubai. Question about the lack of interest in Lamar. I completely understand the hesitancy of owner of not giving Lamar a fully guaranteed deal. Do you think other quarterback needy teams, Colts, commanders, Falcons, are still reaching out with their best offers considering the compensation, or do you think the games he's missed over the past two years has turned them off? I think I said this the other day on the podcast.

To me, if you can get Lamar, even if you believe he's a little overhyped for the next five years and he's relatively healthy, you would do that deal. To me, the hesitancy, did I say that word right? Hesidency is much more about the contract. If he was a cost-controlled player at $38 million a year, $40 million a year, I think you'd have no problem doing that. I think the problem is if it's true that he wants more guaranteed money than Nashan Watson, it makes it pretty complicated.

I've been saying over and over, we can't make fun of the Watson deal and then act like Lamar's getting screwed if he wants more than that. Because he's not Patrick Mahomes. Isn't Lamar Kirk Cousins 2.0? Can he take you much longer in the playoffs than golf? Like, isn't he great on regular season, but you know you're not getting to the Super Bowl with him? He's also injury prone. No way I would give him a fully guaranteed contract that would be a reasonable contract for a quarterback with those characteristics.

30 mils, 30 mil, four years, 35, Brazilian fan here. Keep up. The great work. Appreciate it. Yeah, I think Lamar has really complicated the situation last year when he missed all those games. And rightfully so, he was injured. But, like, you get major injuries and you miss games. and your game is predicated. Like, Patrick Mahomes had some injuries, right? Remember, he had a kneecap, dislocated? I'm pretty sure.

Was that his injury? Yeah, I think he's like knee popped out of place. Remember that? And had a high ankle sprain this year. But we all say, like, yeah, kind of freaked deals. You know, right? We don't view Patrick Mahomes as like an injury risk any more than you would with any normal player.

I think the way Lamar plays, it's just naturally going to be a thought, especially because here's a thing. And it goes back, like, I lived in the Bay Area. And obviously, you know, fall of the 49ers closer than any team in the league. That Kaepernick situation, Kaepernick's a good example. Like, in college at Nevada, and when I was at Fresno State, we played him.

They ran the pistol. And they had this coach named Chris Alt. Obviously, if you're a football, you know, junkie, you know who I'm talking about. He invented the pistol, right? And they turned that pistol into that offense, and Kaepernick mastered it. He was unstoppable. So when Harbaugh implemented that when Kaepernick started playing, most of the NFL hadn't really seen that.

So you're getting a guy when he started running the pistol offense that was a lead at it, that knew it as well as Chris Alt. I mean, nobody knew that offense better than Kaepernick and that guy. So the NFL defenses didn't know what to do. And Kaepernick had these physical attributes. He could throw it far and really run fast. They just kind of worked. And the team was loaded.

But then as time went on and people could, I don't know, kind of stop the running game. in that situation. He had to throw and become a quote unquote pocket quarterback. And when I say pocket, just a throwing quarterback. Like can you throw 40 times a game? And he couldn't do that. Now, Lamar is much better at throwing than Colin,

but he still, I would say pretty flawed. We don't view him as a pastor like we do Burrow, Mahomes, Alan, Herbert. But you just watch those guys consistently throw. And I wouldn't put Lamar in that characteristic or a category. Because his best characteristic is his ability to move. And it's elite. I mean, it's, in my lifetime, Michael Vick, probably Lamar, Kyler. I mean, it's a short list, and two of them are pretty recent.

Those guys are every bit as athletic running around as Michael Vick. Now, one of Michael's problem was he couldn't slide. So he got hurt a lot. I saw it firsthand. Tyler can slide, had a freak, you know, injury. His problem is smaller, kind of like Michael, but he's even smaller than Michael Vick. He gets hurt a lot. Lamar, you know, you can tell me, well,

injury didn't happen, you know, was behind the line of scrimmage. Yeah, the fact is he's had some major injuries and he's missed a lot of time. And that concerns people. And it's made this situation very, very complicated. It really has. And this, is there a collusion? Well, here's what I know. If Justin Herbert was on the market, if Joe Burrell was on the market, if Trevor Lawrence was on the market at a non-exclusive tag, teams would be lined up. It has to do with the player. These teams don't care. It has to do with the player. And if Justin Herbert was available right now and said, I want $230 million guaranteed, those teams that quote-unquote say they're not interested in Lamar,

who are clearly probably sniffing behind the scenes, would gladly trade for a true passer from Mason. Question, what would it take for another sports league to top the NFL in terms of popularity in the U.S.? In which has the highest likely of doing so? Well, I don't think the NFL is getting topped. So basketball, they've lost half their audience in six years. Baseball, I mean, their audience skews very, very old.

Golf and some of these other sports are way nichey, and they're way smaller. And I love golf, but it's not even in the same realm possibility. To me, the only way football is caught is football comes back to the pack. No one's, like, we're not going to look up in an NBA regular season game is going to get 15 million people watching. You're not going to turn on Yankees, Red Sox, and get 12 million people watching Sunday night baseball. That's not happening. That happens in the NFL. So the only way for the NFL would just have to be their equal or be worse, right?

So they'd have to lose millions upon millions upon millions upon millions of fans. Now, in the history of the world, most things fall. Companies, nations, leagues. So you would say historically, like, I would take the bet that the NFL is not always going to be king. But I don't see anyone catching them. They'd have to come back to Earth. That would be my take. Just because the amount of people they have watching their games,

the only two leagues that would have a shot would be baseball and basketball. And it just seems unforeseeable that their games, just a random regular season game, gets 10 million people. Not impossible. I don't think. Last question. Hey, John, love listening to the podcast. My question is for the mailbag.

What does guaranteed money really mean? Does that go against the cap? or is it just money that the team owner doesn't want to dish out? Well, the moment I give you, let's just pick an even number, $100 million, and I give you a five-year deal. I can amortize anyone in real estate that has property knows about like depreciating the asset over time. That's essentially what you do with the guaranteed money. So when I give you a guaranteed contract, all that money is going on my books. The other money is somewhat fake because I can get out of it at any moment.

So on the player side, if I get guaranteed money, that guarantees at minimum a couple years that I'm going to be on the team because they can't cut me or trade me. Right. So that is real dollars. Now, a lot of players that get 20, 30 guaranteed and get 60, 70, 80 million dollars fake contract, if those guys play well, they see the majority of that contract. Right. I think a good example is Jay Vaughan Hargrave.

He just played out his three-year deal with the Philadelphia. the Eagles. I think at the time, this is just going off memory. I'm pretty sure it was like three years, $39 million. I don't know offhand what the guaranteed money, Roseman and Lurie gave him, but it wasn't that number. Yet he played every single year throughout his contract to become a free agent. So he saw every penny of that. Now, if it had gone shitty, they would have could have pivoted like this year. But I think the guaranteed money, there's this mechanism that a lot of people think is kind of archaic in football is that if I guarantee someone $50 million, within a year, I have to either pay that money out or put it into an escrow account, which is something that I

think was originally written into the bylaws in like the 70s and 80s, because at the time, you know, not everyone had the cash. Now, everyone has the money. Now, some teams have more cash on hand than others, but the guaranteed money is also on the player side, you know, an injury risk, right? Because in basketball or baseball, if I sign a hundred million dollar contract, that money is guaranteed. Whether I, you know, my leg falls off a year into the contract or whether I suck. Like that money's guaranteed to come to me. In the NFL, when I sign you to a five year, a hundred million dollar contract, but I only guarantee 25 million of that contract, like if shit goes wrong, I can get out. And I actually don't

have to pay you a large percentage of the contract. Obviously, different teams, I would say, write different language, do different ways of roster bonuses in years that guarantee times of the year in the offseason where if you're still on the team, your contract's guaranteed. You know, some teams, I know of one that likes putting it closer to April 1st than March 15th because it gives them a little wiggle room. if they want to upgrade as a free agent and get rid of you and other teams, you know, and certain players have more leverage where they put that mechanism, you know, before free

agency, so you either have to pay me, guarantee my salary for the upcoming year, let's say I'm a $12 million player, or cut me before a free agency so I can hit the open market, which I think, you know, part of the contract situation in the NFL is kind of what makes it fascinating because most of us don't, you'd really have to get, you know, a Howie Roseman, Parag Marate to, and listen, I've been just had to describe to me by those guys in terms of, I just had questions over the years, and it's still pretty complicated. It really is. You know, there's no, those guys, you know, all throughout the league, the salary cap guys,

they know it like the back of their hand. But like, I don't think most coaches could tell you the, you know, the intricacies and the true details of how a contract works, besides some of the basic stuff, maybe a signing bonus. Maybe you're, you know, your yearly cash flow, but there are a lot of moving parts that I think the best teams are good at. Because all I hear is like, oh, the Eagles, you know, against it. They always figure it out a way, you know? The 49ers are always getting sweet players and turning it and figuring it out.

So the having a salary cap guy and or a money guy and be one of your lead executives is really, really important. It really is. So I hope that's a good way of just. describing it. And yeah, we'll get you out of here on that one. Have a good, if you're listening on Sunday, good Sunday. If you're listening to during the week, let's go, baby. The volume. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you

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