The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 & Out - Bo Nix STRUGGLES, Broncos defense DOMINATES in TNF win vs. Raiders

Episode Date: November 7, 2025

Former NFL scout John Middlekauff is reacting LIVE immediately following the Week 10 Thursday Night Football matchup between Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos vs. Geno Smith and the Las Vegas Raiders.John... kicks off by discussing Broncos QB Bo Nix poor performance despite the win vs. the Raiders and debates if Nix can help propel his team on a NFL playoff run. John then explains why the Raiders need to consider trading star Maxx Crosby in the offseason. Next, John reacts to the Kansas City Chiefs' fan reaction to not trading for New York Jets running back Breece Hall. Next, John explains why Indianapolis Colts QB Daniel Jones and his agents are ZONED IN after the trade deadline as the team has signaled that they will commit to him long-term. John wraps up with a Fugazi Fridays update on his bout with hot yoga and reacts to college coaches obsession with golf. Later John is joined by betting guru, Stuckey from The Action Network to break down the upcoming weekend in both college football and the NFL. They dive into the biggest matchups, key storylines, and deliver their expert insight on where the value is for bettors. From Saturday’s slate of massive college games to Sunday’s NFL action, they’ve got you covered with sharp analysis and some of the best bets to make this weekend. 01:33 - Raiders-Broncos Reaction 03:35 - Bo Nix 17:21 - Maxx Crosby 25:34 - Chiefs don't trade for Breece Hall 29:57 - ZONED IN: Daniel Jones 33:50 - Fugazi Friday: Hot Yoga Update 35:28 - Fugazi Friday: College Coaches & Golf Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest.  All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet Use promo code “3ANDOUT20” on https://nicokick.com/zone for 20% off at checkout! Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.
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Starting point is 00:03:02 How are we doing? John Middlough, the Rie and Out Podcast. for everyone's doing well better than the Raiders and probably better than the Broncos offense which has some issues so we will dive into that tonight obviously this show is presented by zone pouches but
Starting point is 00:03:19 Thursday night game was rough so it's Fugazi Friday that was a could argue a Fugazi performance by both teams that was rough not the Broncos defense is good Max Crosby plays hard but other than that we
Starting point is 00:03:34 if you didn't watch, you didn't miss much. But the Broncos are 8-2 with the quarterback that I'm just not sure is that good. So we'll dive into that. Some thoughts from the couple of things I saw with a trade deadline, something on Veach and the Chiefs and a trade that they didn't make. Some thoughts on Daniel Jones, who I think might be the big winner of the week and then hit on a couple of Fugazis
Starting point is 00:04:03 and as well as a hot yoga update. I conquered it. No big deal. But make sure you subscribe to the podcast, wherever you may listen, Apple, Spotify, YouTube as well. Subscribe on YouTube. You'll never miss a thing we go live
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Starting point is 00:05:03 percent off at checkout. It's time for us to have a conversation. I have tried to stay optimistic, young player, on a team that's really good. So sometimes they get judged a little bit easier or more difficult than players that are playing in meaningless games, guys on terrible teams. But Bo Nicks, the majority of this season has been atrocious. And tonight, it was like, oh, same thing. Starting slow.
Starting point is 00:05:32 he's going to have, you know, a big ending, and it never really happened. He was mainly beside a couple passes, not very good. And I think we have to acknowledge something. The Broncos, for me now, officially have a problem in 2025. Because they have a defense that is like a Ferrari. I mean, the team speed. One thing about the Broncos, when they've been good on defense over the last decade in the Peyton era, that'd be Peyton Manning.
Starting point is 00:06:01 and now the Sean Payton era, is their team speed is elite. Like, it doesn't get any better. My neighbor just finalizes divorce, actually. Very successful guy. He's in the medical field. He works on, let's just call him a plastic surgeon. He does well for himself. He owns a Ferrari.
Starting point is 00:06:21 It's incredible. And that's like the Denver Broncos. But the problem is Bo Nix would be the engine. And if he wanted to be like, hey, John, you want to take this Ferrari? And the engine was missing, we'd have a problem. and you have no chance to win a Super Bowl with Bo Nix as playing like he is right now. I'd go further and say, I don't think they have much of a chance in the playoffs with a quarterback who functions like that.
Starting point is 00:06:44 It's just not going to work out. And Herb Street pointed out something tonight. There was a play in the red zone, and I think it's confidence a shot. I really do. And maybe it's, you know, perpetuated by the bad play, and now it snowballed into this position, but you watched him, like, listen, he's never been the most accurate guy. When you do a deep dive of him at Auburn, he was an inaccurate player. Obviously at Oregon, he was exceptional, but we've broken down. A lot of those are, you know, quick screen type plays and, you know, behind the line of scrimmage type throws.
Starting point is 00:07:19 Sean Payton tried to do a couple of those tonight, and they were a disaster. One, a corner, you know, shed a block, made a tackle. Another, they ran some trick play. on third and one. It was like a double pass, another disaster. So it feels like the quarterback's lack of confidence make Sean Payton look like a horrendous play caller. And listen, I don't pretend to be Bill Walsh here because I think it would be easy to be like, well, Sean Payton's calling a horrendous season. I think it's hard to call plays when your quarterback is playing that badly. I mean, there are basic throws to the, and this is crazy.
Starting point is 00:07:53 You're talking about an eight and two team. But all I could think about watching them play is like, I can't imagine being a guy on defense because their defense is exceptional and they're missing the defensive player of the year didn't even play. Hufunga, I fucking love Tallahasseh, that guy is such a badass. That guy is such a winning player. As they say in that business, he's a force multiplier. He brings people up. Greenlaw is just a hard hitting, you know, stone cold killer. So you add these two guys who are starters on a Super Bowl defense to a defense, which is already awesome. and they're kicking ass and taking names.
Starting point is 00:08:30 Now, the Raiders actually started fast and probably should have been up 14 points, but over the course of the game, the Broncos are going to take over. And the problem is, their quarterback, whenever he comes on, they didn't have a first down till late in the second quarter
Starting point is 00:08:42 when Bo hit a big play, scrambling to his right, and a couple plays later, he had a touchdown. And then whenever something positive happens, you think the momentum's going to start, and then he just resorts back to, one thing with lack of confidence,
Starting point is 00:08:57 I think, you know, I've never played quarterback at the end, NFL level, but having watched, studied a lot of these guys, you know, when you're going well, you're very under control, right? The best players in the league, Mahomes, Josh, Lamar, Burrow and healthy, are very calm under duress. Like when you watch Patrick, when shit gets crazy and he scrambles, he does it in an under control manner. He never feels herky, jerky, you're out of control. One thing that has vaulted Lamar into a completely into another level over the last two or three, maybe even more than that, four years, but definitely the last like two and a half,
Starting point is 00:09:39 three years to just like unstoppable force when he's on is his scrambles are like, he knows exactly what he's doing and he's not wasting any energy. But he's, his feet are actually in sync as he's moving around to avoid the chaos. You watch Bo Nix. His feet not only are out of sync, but there are plays when no one's even around him. And he's getting the, you know, just frenetic energy.
Starting point is 00:10:07 And it's like, what are we doing? You're not a naturally accurate passer in the first place. And if your feet are off, you have no chance. And I think Deshaun Payton, I know he's always aspired to have an athletic, mobile play. making quarterback. But let's face it, Sean Payton became a legend
Starting point is 00:10:27 with the guy that couldn't really move. I'd argue Steve Young is, but hey, games change, whatever, the most accurate quarterback in the history of the league in Drew Breeze. So when a guy was in the, just basic passes, right? A guy opened five yards away from you,
Starting point is 00:10:42 a running back, in the flat or past the line of scrimmage. Not only did Drew Breeze hit him, he hit the guy in a position where he could go and make on second and eight, completes it with four yards, can run another four yards to get you a first down. Countless times tonight, Bo Nix is throwing it at guy's feet.
Starting point is 00:11:03 So some of the balls are dropped. Even the one play that Franklin dropped, did he drop it? Or was Bo Nix throwing it to the other guy? Who, you could argue bad route concept if the two guys are so close, maybe someone screwed up. But either way, it's hard to tell.
Starting point is 00:11:18 I can't give you the benefit of the doubt you were throwing it to them. and I can't even crush the player for dropping it because I think he thought the guy ahead of him was going to catch the ball. They're for as great as their defense is and I think it is awesome. If you told me I get one defense to go in the playoffs,
Starting point is 00:11:36 I would probably lean them over the Houston Texans but I wouldn't be mad at taking either. But I think they're, and they're only going to get better the more Greenlawn who fun to play with this unit and obviously Sertan comes back. It's got it all. Team speed,
Starting point is 00:11:50 physicality, pass rush. They're a bunch of badasses. But their offense is a major liability. I mean a major liability. And you will not... And one thing, if I wanted to defend the Bo Nix haters, here's what I would say.
Starting point is 00:12:07 In all these games that he is starting, like one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, the way he started. Obviously, I'm talking about the games that he's won, that he flipped a switch in the fourth quarter. If he was on a bad team,
Starting point is 00:12:20 they'd be down anywhere from 15 to 24 to nothing in all these games. And he would lose all the time. This team actually reminds me a lot of when I was a kid. You know, most teams in the NFL had averaged to below quarterbacks. And back in the 90s, we weren't spreading it out and throwing it all over the place. So if you look at box scores on a weekly basis in like 1996, a lot of dudes throwing in the hundreds. A lot of dudes throwing in the low 200s.
Starting point is 00:12:52 It wasn't just, you know, countless 375s and 325s. Like, that's been something during the Internet era, especially as the rules have changed. But, like, when I was a kid, a lot of good teams had awful quarterback play and bad offenses. And some of the great, I mean, historically, one of the greatest teams of all time, the 85 bears, like, I don't think they're exactly known for their passing offense. I didn't even, that's not even the best example, because they had Walter Payton. if you go to the 2000 Ravens, I mean, just Treaddilfer, their offense was horrendous.
Starting point is 00:13:25 It didn't matter. Their defense was dominant. That's what this team feels like. The problem is you can never play defense quite like that. Like, we were talking right before I hit record, does this team have the ceiling of like, what's a team in the last 10, 15 years that parallels this? And you go a little bit like Seattle,
Starting point is 00:13:45 but I think that young Russell Wilson, I know, you know, Sherman and Earl, and I don't think those guys thought Russell was that great, but he was better than this. And Marshawn Lynch is, was just more of a force. I think J.K. Dobbins is pretty good, and I kind of like R.J. Harvey as well, too. But when your quarterback is playing like he's playing against the Chiefs, whoever they play in the playoffs, like I'm putting, I don't know, 12 guys in the box, Bo Nix beat me because I do not think you can. And right now it's not debatable.
Starting point is 00:14:17 He cannot. I know he's pulled some of these games out of his ass in the fourth quarter, but like he ain't going to be able to do that against the Chiefs. If he plays like he did tonight against Chiefs, they lose 100% of the time. They will lose 100% of the time. And I'm saying this out of passion because I have a ticket on them to make the Super Bowl. And I watch the night and I go,
Starting point is 00:14:36 John, you got no shot. This is, they're not making the Super Bowl. And I think, I don't know if they're winning a playoff game. If this is how he's going to play. You don't just have the T-Boh magic at the end of these games. That's not realistic, you know, week in, week out. And I think Sean Payton has a serious problem on his hands. And listen, you know, in sports, right, baseball, basketball, and football,
Starting point is 00:15:00 when you're the GM or you're a powerful head coach like Sean, and you put your stamp on a guy. Like, this is my guy. It happens a lot in football. In baseball, it's like guys go to the minors, he's let the cream rise. In basketball, it's like, yeah, no shit. draft of the guy number three overall. In football, we see guys all the time drafted in the second round, and a coach will come out and be like, this was my favorite player in the draft. And
Starting point is 00:15:25 sometimes the guy's awesome, and that coach gets credit. Sometimes it's the opposite, and we criticize the coach. But Sean Payton, who listen is no, isn't hesitant to tell you how he feels, and he's pretty confident in his ability to coach the quarterback. I mean, saying from the high heavens how much he loved this player. and how this was his guy. Now, never forget, Bo Nix was the last guy off the board in a historic draft
Starting point is 00:15:50 that saw five other quarterbacks ahead of him go. Right, so he was, like, all these other teams had a chance to draft him to him past. Now, I'm not trying to act like Monday morning quarterback because I did go back
Starting point is 00:16:01 and watch Oregon. Like, I got it. I saw the physical traits. I saw there was a lot there. I thought he was more, had some project to him, but I, listen, draft him in the teens.
Starting point is 00:16:11 Like, I understand that. But when you are that inaccurate, it. And then once you start missing passes, I think it just bleeds into your confidence, and then your feet get all out of whack, and everything's out of whack, your offense doesn't run. And that's what happened tonight there. Offense didn't run.
Starting point is 00:16:26 I mean, you're playing the Raiders, on a short week, at home. Raiders are terrible. And you throw for 150 yards. 150 yards. I just That's concerning. That's really concerning. And it's not even
Starting point is 00:16:43 just about the box. score, the I test was worse. And they have this offensive guru calling the plays, but when you pick the wrong player, right, it's just a thing of concern, big picture.
Starting point is 00:16:58 Now, unlike some of these other guys, you know, it was, listen, Kyle Shanahan, Shane Steichen, I think we all agree. Good offensive coaches, they've selected the wrong guy too. You make mistakes. Now, Bo Nix is getting a longer leash because the team's winning, so I don't expect him
Starting point is 00:17:14 those guys weren't starting by year three. That's not going to happen here, but they do have a problem on their hands. And there's no way you fix it overnight because now we have two months of evidence, like something is off. And I don't know. I just, I think the Broncos,
Starting point is 00:17:32 it's sad because if they had, if I'm a Bronco fan, I go, if we just had solid quarterback play, we'd probably still be eight and two or nine and one, but we'd be killing people. We would be lighting them up like a Christmas tree. We would be, you know, remember, Peyton Manning played with the defense. It was unstoppable.
Starting point is 00:17:54 They boat race people on a weekly basis. Now, I'm not expecting you just find Peyton Manning 2.0. But if you just had, I don't know, a guy like Dak Prescott or something, you know, your average margin of victory would be double digits. Instead, they are pulling these games out of the crevices of cavities in their body that they have no business doing. and today wasn't quite like that, but beating the Raiders,
Starting point is 00:18:16 and I get it, divisional opponent, 10 to 7, especially for the final, I don't know, 20 minutes of game time, their quarterback could barely walk. Action Genti was like, doesn't even look that good. It'd be one thing, it's like,
Starting point is 00:18:30 hey, you almost lost, Ashton Gentie went for a buck 80, Crosby had like three sacks. What was the case? Gentie ran for three yards of carry. Brock Bowers had one catch. It was a cool catch. but it just
Starting point is 00:18:43 that one's tough I feel like I'm being negative for a team that's 8 and 2 but I think we have to sound the alarm a little bit Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor Hard Rock Bet We talk a lot of football in 3 and out but there's always something to bet on
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Starting point is 00:20:21 New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Hey, it's us to Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, dude? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas, we invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to our first people to do podcasts.
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Starting point is 00:21:21 Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between. Queen songs banter. Where does your group perform?
Starting point is 00:21:43 We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened.
Starting point is 00:22:03 That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. Breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them.
Starting point is 00:22:35 Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slic Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis. And I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs. And on the Renee Stubbs Tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris. Every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on clay. Jen Chinchin win.
Starting point is 00:23:04 I mean, she went down in three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. Yeah, she's an outsider to win the first. French, mate. And she likes Clay. Listen, Leonard Rabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on any surface. Because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:23:30 Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking. Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark.
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Starting point is 00:24:32 Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. On the flip side, I think it's truly time if you're the radio. Florio wrote about this the other day. He said there's two type contracts. And Florio's pretty good at breaking down the contracts on Pro Football Talk. And he's like, I don't think I did a good job about this because he gets into the nitty-gritty. Sauce Gardner, because I was guilty of this when they signed sauce Gardner. I'm like, why would you sign a guy that you hadn't coached that you didn't have to sign yet
Starting point is 00:25:08 if you wanted to let things play out and potentially trade them? Well, it turned out they signed him to a tradable contract. they only paid him like $15 million total. They didn't give him some $50 million signing bonus. So it was a tradable contract. And then he used an example of Miles Garrett this offseason. Miles Garrett was not a tradable contract. Miles Garrett is the type contract you signed that you're stuck with him for a couple years
Starting point is 00:25:34 because it would annihilate your cap. Now, who knows, Paul D. Podesta burned down the Browns. I'm out of here. I'm going to head to the worst Major League Baseball team. Thanks for your work, Paul. we appreciate it. But when I'm looking at the Raiders, I think we've got to be realistic.
Starting point is 00:25:50 I'm a huge John Spitech fan. I respect Pete Carroll. Listen, I understand people make fun of him. He's old. Pete Carroll has been winning at the sport of football up until this year for literally 23 straight years. From the start of this century
Starting point is 00:26:07 till 2023, he did not lose. Now, he didn't always win big, but even in Seattle, like it had bad seasons 9-1. wins. He wasn't having two win seasons. That was not happening in Seattle. Obviously, dominated SC, transition to Seattle, and never look back. And he comes to the Raiders and they're probably headed toward, I don't know, a three-win season. It's really ugly. And I think if I'm John Spitech, I sit down with Pete, with Mark Davis, with Tom Brady, we got to be realistic about this, right?
Starting point is 00:26:39 We have three players that are, we're not going to touch, right? I guess two for sure. Brock Bowers, he's our baby. Ashton Jentee, we just drafted him six. I'm not trying to be a hater. I literally root hard for guys that play at Boise State and Fresno State. Like, I like Ashen Genty. Everything he stands for, his background being an army brat, the way that he ended up in Boise, his loyalty to Boise. My only issue was it like, I just don't think I could take him in the top 10. I just couldn't do it. But listen, I'm not trying to act like I know more about scouting players than John Spitech. He came on this podcast. They loved him. But he's there. And he's six overall. He can't be dropping passes. He's got to be a dual threat. He's not just a running back. He's got to be
Starting point is 00:27:30 a playmaker for them. But he's their guy. Obviously, Max Crosby is an elite player. But I don't think he has much value on a team that's doing nothing. And because of the way, the Raider structure contracts, you can trade them this offseason. And you can only go so long, the thing in football, more than some of these other sports, injuries, attrition,
Starting point is 00:27:55 wear and tear, your talents can go from like a 9.5 to a 6 really quick. Right? Like, let's use baseball, for example. I remember Linsicum. He was throwing 99, then all of a sudden it's like
Starting point is 00:28:11 94, then all of a sudden, all of a sudden it's like 91, but it's like a gradual progression. I watch his interview Clayton Kershaw I did with Dan Patrick. Same thing. It's like I used to throw way harder, I can't throw. But it's a gradual progression. In football, you can go from like all pro to like an offseason and get old fast. To go from like, I'm just a solid starter.
Starting point is 00:28:32 You can go from all pro to below average player within, I would say, 20 games. It can happen fast. And it's why, listen, these guys and their agents, They get very aggressive to get themselves money when they can. I said this yesterday at Brandon Iuke. I'll tell you Brandon Iuke never plays another snap. The reason he held out, right, was because if something catastrophic happens,
Starting point is 00:28:55 I need some security. And in a sport, when guys get injured all the time, you've got to be ready. So I'm watching Max Crosby, and I just plays his ass off. You could trade him for a couple. If you can trade Soss Gardner for a couple ones, if you can say Quinn and Williams for a two and a one, you can trade Max for a lot in February at the Com.
Starting point is 00:29:13 mind. And I think the Raiders for too long have tried, you know, to kind of have their cake and eat it too. They've never truly done a huge, huge blowup. They kind of did the one year with Khalil and Amari Cooper. But like that wasn't really planned. It was like they didn't have the money to give Khalil. And then Amari was acting weird and their team wasn't good. I mean go into it with the, we're nuking this thing and try to pivot on the fly. And you still got some pieces that if you do it right, you know, you can feel. figure it out. Now, I think big picture, like, is Pete Carroll want to do any of that? Like, does it make sense with a 73-year-old guy? You know, their offensive coordinator is the highest paid offensive coordinator in the league that's not a head coach. And he's atrocious
Starting point is 00:29:56 at his job. Like people are like, Middle Cup, you just hate Chip Kelly? No, he just hasn't been that good of an offensive coordinator in a long, long time. He had a four-game stretch where he got hot in the playoffs with a team full of NFL stars. But if you look at UCLA his last several years, they were a defensive team when they were good. This year has been an abomination with the Raiders. I just don't think he's good anymore. He's living off a reputation from a decade ago. And I think Pete still, his message and everything kind of works,
Starting point is 00:30:26 but they just don't have the talent. And I think they thought they were better than they were. And I think Max is their quickest path toward just kind of resetting this thing. Because I think they tried to plug some holes and thought they could be more competitive. Hell, I didn't think they were a playoff team, but I could have been like, I could see seven and ten or something, eight and nine and just a frisky team.
Starting point is 00:30:46 They're really bad. They are not good. And they just acknowledge it by, you know, trading Jacoby, their best wide receiver. But I just think they got to pull the plug. They just do not have enough talent. And I think big picture, you know, when SpyTech and Brady sit down, you know, it's tough. Like you hired Pete Carroll to try to, which I thought made sense just to get the train going in the right direction. And just get some positive momentum for a couple years.
Starting point is 00:31:15 I think you start asking yourself, like, give him a couple years, but it was almost like, you know, putting a band-aid on a bullet hole, and maybe he wasn't the right guy for the job because he just weren't good enough. And especially if some of the type guys that, like, if you're trading Max Crosby, like, why is Pete going to want to be there? And I think Pete would say, I don't want to be here because I love coaching football. And I saw him when he got interviewed, leaving at halftime. I admire his burning passion for this sport.
Starting point is 00:31:42 to football. He does not need to be doing this. He has made an astronomical amount of money. I mean, I think people thought he was making like $20 million, like the last six or seven years. Like he's made a ton, and he was making millions at USC at two decades ago. Like, he's doing this because football is his addiction. And he's passionate about it and he likes it, but I don't know how you could like get excited going to practice with this group that has no chance. It's not all your fault. I mean, you inherited a team with not that much talent. You've had some injuries. And I do think one thing
Starting point is 00:32:16 they probably regret, and I don't know if it would have made a huge difference, but I think if they could do it over again, they would not have traded for Gino and just been in the mix for Sam Donald. Now, obviously, the Seattle Seahawks have a much better roster and are more equipped to win
Starting point is 00:32:32 with Sam Donald, but I just think Gino I mean, it's not played that well at all. And Now he's limping around. I mean, he's going to just not be very good. So my move this off-season would be to pull the plug, throw some dynamite on it and let it rip.
Starting point is 00:32:52 A couple other things I wanted to dive into. I saw some people on the interweb talking about people, I guess, are mad, like GMs. I saw a lot of people like 49er fans are mad at John Lynch. It's like, guys, their entire team is hurt. You think they're going to trade a first-round pick for Trey Hendrickson? are you on crack cocaine? What are you guys talking about?
Starting point is 00:33:13 How is this? Is this a real conversation? Or is this internet only? Because if this is a real conversation, maybe I'm out of the loop on the way fans think. Do people really think this? You seeing the team they're rolling out? They're going to trade a first round pick?
Starting point is 00:33:27 Well, Veach, I guess, was getting some similar heat on the interweb about not trading, you know, it was reported today that he didn't trade a they were talking to the Jets about Brees Hall and the Jets were adamant we want a third round pick and the highest Vietz would go as a fourth rounder and he wouldn't budge. And I saw Chief fans like, what are we doing?
Starting point is 00:33:50 Why aren't we living in the now? And I was like, is this serious? Have you guys watched Andy Recoach? You think he's going to give Bruce Hall, who won, to me, talented guy, a little overrated, the hype given what he's brought to the NFL. Again, a little hard to judge because of the Jets. but like this isn't trading for Christian McCaffrey or Bijon Robinson here
Starting point is 00:34:11 and who knows maybe he will end up that way next year when he's on a better team but one he's a free agent so you're trading a fourth round pick on a team that's very expensive that's going to need picks that I'd even argue that's like kind of bold for a team that historically isn't exactly handing the ball off to one individual 15 to 20 times a game not really how he calls plays but to me most importantly why you can't give up a third round pick one Patrick Mahomes is going to need a quote-unquote restructure of his contract. I promise you that one's coming.
Starting point is 00:34:41 Chris Jones makes a ton of money. Karloft has just got a big contract. Trent McDuffie's going to need a contract. Obviously, Travis, even if he retires, I bet if we look, some of that signing bonus got pro-rated is going to hit the cap. They are going to need
Starting point is 00:34:55 to be careful about their top picks. Because over the last couple years, like, why don't the Chiefs just get aggressive and trade a first rounder for so-and-so? Well, who did they use a first rounder on this last year? they're starting left tackle. So when you have a high-priced team, the first two days of draft picks are really valuable.
Starting point is 00:35:15 So if you are going to use those, it would be on someone that wouldn't be a rental. It would be a guy you want to resign. Like Howie Roseman, goes in trades for Jalen Phillips, a third-round pick. Well, they're basically giving this Jalen Phillips a two, if they go long in the playoffs,
Starting point is 00:35:34 a three-month trial run to give you a contract extension. But even if they let's just say it blows up in their face. And he's not good, it doesn't work out. And it's underwhelming. Do you know what Howie Roseman has in his back pocket this offseason? He can trade A.J. Brown. So it's like, oh, yeah, he lost a third round pick.
Starting point is 00:35:54 What do you think he'd get for A.J. Brown this off season? At minimum, a second and a third? Because he makes a lot of money. And who knows, maybe he can dictate where he wants to go? I don't know if, you know, at his length time in the NFL, if they get a one, but he would get, I would say, minimum a second, potentially if you told me a second and a fourth, probably. So he has that in his back pocket, and I would say, stop talking about trade and AJ Brown. I watched how he's press conference two days ago after the trade deadline.
Starting point is 00:36:25 And when he was asked about it, he didn't just come out and say like, yeah, we never thinking about it. We would never do that. He kind of gave, yeah, we're just, we're going to keep. keeping our good players, but he didn't, it wasn't like, if you would ask him, hey, why didn't you trade Jalen Carter? Why didn't you trade Jalen Hertz? He would have gone, he would have lost it. He would be like, what? Are you guys idiots? That's not the way he took it. I promise you this, AJ Brown's getting traded this offseason. That's going to happen. And that's how they're going to recoup picks. Who are the chiefs trading? They need that third round pick. So if you want to say,
Starting point is 00:36:58 Hey, why weren't the chiefs involved and trading for some defensive guys? Okay, I can hear that. But drawing a hard line on a price point for a running back that's a free agent that, I don't know, hasn't exactly taken the league by storm, I don't have a big deal with. Let's talk about Daniel Jones
Starting point is 00:37:19 because I actually think his agents are about to get in the zone. If you remember, in 223 Daniel Jones was coming off a career year where I think he accounted for like 20 touchdowns
Starting point is 00:37:36 not exactly like you threw 45 the Giants went 9 and 8 they beat Kurt Cousins the Minnesota Vikings and it was like we're in love with Daniel Jones again how about like two years 50 million his agents laughed in their face
Starting point is 00:37:51 and they proceeded to dominate the Giants in negotiation Joe Shane even said he's like This negotiation was crazy. And they got $80 million the moment he signed that contract. A year and a half later, he was released in the middle of the season. Well, you can't argue that he has been a big part of resurrecting the Colts, right? They had a quarterback situation that was a debacle.
Starting point is 00:38:18 He immediately comes in, and now they're probably headed toward, what, 12 and 5? Like, they're not only headed for a good record. they're going to the playoffs and for the first time in Chris Ballard's tenure, they're more than likely going to win the division. I think his agents have to be licking their chops after this week because that Soss Gardner trade
Starting point is 00:38:39 basically sent out a signal. We are ready to win now. This year, next year, our time is now. Well, when do you think that? When you have a quarterback? Why did Jerry Jones trade for Quinn and Williams? Why I see people call him, he's got Dick Prescott. He's paying him $60 million.
Starting point is 00:38:55 He's like, you get Quinn and Williams. We've got two ones next year. We'll add to our defense and we'll make the playoffs. That's what he's thinking. If he would have traded for Quinn and Williams with no quarterback, it would have been the craziest trade in the history of the league. But I said, like, I don't even think it's that nuts. We could argue the price, but like he plans on filling up that defense next year and winning 10 plus games next year with Dak Prescott. Whether it comes true or not, but like he could make that argument it's possible because he has a quarterback. Well, when you trade for Sots Gardner, for two first-round picks, what teams trade two first-round picks? Teams do think they can win? Teams that believe in their quarterback. And I think Daniel Jones now is looking at, if he got $80 million at signing three years ago, depending on, I mean, if he has some good games and they win a playoff game,
Starting point is 00:39:48 are we talking $150 million? And this is where I think the Colts are, going to sign one of the more controversial quarterback contracts in recent memory because his agents have already proved they don't take discounts. His price point was basically cousins three years ago.
Starting point is 00:40:07 You know, cousins just made $90 million in two years. That's what Daniel Jones did. So you factor in inflation, you factor in these new deals. I can imagine Chris Ballard will send his agent Sam Donald's contract, three years, $100 million, $55 million. And they'll laugh. They'll like wipe their ass with the facts or paper.
Starting point is 00:40:25 I guess no one faxed anymore, but, well, they used to in the NFL contracts. And I just think that the Colts now have backed themselves up into a corner that this is their guy. No one franchises a quarterback or very rarely because the price, I haven't even looked at the number, but my guess is, I don't know, minimum low 40s and all that money goes on your cap. So you try to avoid that at all costs. And you want to sign them to extension. and the extension is going to be really expensive.
Starting point is 00:40:55 So the Colts and Daniel Jones, I would say, haven't officially gotten married yet. That will come when the big contract is signed in February. But they got engaged the moment that Soss Gardner trade went down. Okay, Fugazi Friday. I got to give myself a little bit of a round of applause. I made it through 60 minutes of hot yoga. Now, I took a different tactic.
Starting point is 00:41:19 Last time I went, I went at 6 in the morning. So I definitely didn't hydrower. enough. I didn't quite know what I was getting into, and I quit after 40 minutes. Today, they had a class at 8.30, and my day is on Thursday because the games at night, and I don't record Bill Stucky until 11 o'clock. I got a little more time in the morning, so instead of going to the 6 a.m. class, I went at 8.30. You know, I got up at like 6.30. I slammed a big Stanley. I felt hydrated. I felt healthy. And I went in there, and this class was packed today. But the thing that, because again, it crossed my mind. It probably about, I made a mistake. I went to
Starting point is 00:41:52 the center of the class, that's where the heater is, and the heat was just coming right at me. I was like, I don't know, this is, because it crossed my mind again, but there was probably triple the amount of people. But what motivated me the whole time was right next to me was like this 65-year-old, like, Laird Hamilton. This guy was just jacked, gray hair, and he was dominating. I'm like, there is no way. I'm like, one, when I'm this guy's age, my kid will be like, I'm like, I, this guy's in 10 times better shape than me and he's got me by multiple decades. I cannot be a puss and leave. And I just kept looking at it.
Starting point is 00:42:33 I'm like, I can't go. And then finally, you just looked up. And I tried not to every time you look at the clock, you're like, God, this clock feels like it's going backwards. But it finally got there. And even the yoga, yoga teacher said, great job. I'm like, yeah, thank you. But God damn, that's really, really hard. But I did want to end on this Fugazi is there have been a lot of reports.
Starting point is 00:42:52 kind of sweat and it's hot in here, is the golfing with the college coaches, Hugh Freeze, Brian Kelly, that they were, like, addicted to golf. And one thing with Hugh Freeze, as a report came out, that in college, right, you play on Saturday. So, unlike the NFL,
Starting point is 00:43:11 their work week starts like a normal human's work week on Monday. College football coaches, and just college football operations, Sunday's a big workday, right? because you have six days until your next opponent. You try to grade that game. Some teams practice or at minimum do some sort of workout to get the lactic acid. You meet as a team, you go over the film,
Starting point is 00:43:35 and then I would say the majority of teams probably let the players go and then they start diving into the game plan on the next opponent. But it's a very long day, right? Especially if you have traveled, if you're on the road playing Florida or something, and you get back late. Like you're in the office relatively early in the morning and you're there till very, very late.
Starting point is 00:43:56 And reports came out that Hugh Freeze, these SEC golf programs are, like, they travel on private jets when they play in tournaments. If you're into that, probably a lot of people watching this or not, if you go to YouTube and you just go to Alabama Golf, Auburn Golf, Georgia Golf, Vanderbilt Golf, their facilities are at country clubs that are really nice. yet their facility, when I got married in Nashville,
Starting point is 00:44:23 we played the Vanderbilt course because my brother is a member at a club in the Sacramento area and it's owned by the same management company. So you can get a tea time there, so we went and played it. And Vanderbilt's their home course. Their clubhouse is, just for the players, on a golf team, there's less than 12 guys, is bigger than the actual clubhouse at the country club
Starting point is 00:44:46 that has 2 18 holes. when we were leaving. Peyton Manning was in the Vanderbilt area, I think with his young son Marshall, just chipping and putting. It's incredible. So all these people in the SEC have setups like it's the fucking PGA tour.
Starting point is 00:45:02 It doesn't get any better. So Auburn's home course, who I actually think I have a good buddy that went to watch a Cal Auburn game years ago and they played it instead. It's really nice. So all these teams have, you know, the nice country club is ran by the golf team.
Starting point is 00:45:16 Well, if Sean McVey, or let's use Kenny Dealingham in Arizona, if he wanted to sneak out of the office early on a Sunday, I'm like, I'm just kind of over it, need a break, I'm going to go play some golf. There are seven million golf courses here. He could play anywhere, and honestly, he'd get away with no one noticing him. When you're Brian Kelly and you're playing Baton Rouge Country Club, or you're Hugh Freeze and you're playing Auburn's Country Club, it's the only nice golf course in town.
Starting point is 00:45:44 And where do you think the rich people that are funding your personal, program that live in the general facility, hang out. And a country club is like a high school. Everyone knows each other and everyone talks. Well, who's the most famous guy besides like the billionaire rich guy funding the football program in the town? It's the football coach. So if it is true that Hugh Freeze was going and playing golf on a weekly basis or oftentimes
Starting point is 00:46:09 after losses at 1.30 in the afternoon on Sunday, that's insane. and I started thinking like Brian Kelly, Hugh Freeze, I do wonder if you get to the point, especially these older guys. I get Lane, he's still trying to prove himself, he wants to win a national championship. And like he's kind of, you know, been drugged through the mud throughout his career. So he's still like trying to prove it. But a guy like Brian Kelly, now granted, he's still trying to win a national championship, but he's been making so much money for so long.
Starting point is 00:46:39 I don't care who you are unless you're wired. Like Nick Sabin's a one of one. He is not normal. And even him, you saw once he retired, that video that went viral, and Miss Terry bringing him the cake, dude's on the lazy boy with the blanket over him like he's Grandpa Sabin. Leave me alone. I want to watch this game.
Starting point is 00:47:00 I can appreciate that. I want to watch this game by myself in a room. I want to watch the Chiefs and the Bills. Do not talk to me. He ain't coming back. I saw the new LSUAD who's good friends with him, said, we talk to Nick. He's not coming back. Not that we talked to him about the job
Starting point is 00:47:16 because he laughed He just was never coming back My point is that these guys were playing golf thinking that like that's not going to get back and I got to got to the point where maybe they didn't care and I do wonder if some of these older coaches that are taking these astronomical amounts of money
Starting point is 00:47:31 Do they still have the same fire? Do they even give a shit? Because any human being that was trying to prove anything would never put themselves in a position where you're playing golf during the season after losses on a Sunday afternoon, that is fucking insanity. But that's what these guys were doing.
Starting point is 00:47:56 And I really think it gets back to when you start handing out this type money, if they, if something's a little off, if they don't quite have the same fire, what do they care? Because what do they have to prove to that? Like, you have to pay me to leave. So you want to fire me, fire me. Send me those checks. Because I got a lot coming.
Starting point is 00:48:13 He's like, send me that $18 million. Brian Kelly's like, send me that $50 million. I don't care. I'll do whatever I want. I'm actually untouchable. And it's human nature, right? I think most people, like the whole point of like striving, obviously you want to win championships,
Starting point is 00:48:31 but these guys want to make money. And for a lot of these guys, early in the career, you don't make that much. I saw Matt Ruhl telling a story. They're playing UCLA. He's like, when I coached at UCLA in 2001, I was making no money. so you're just kind of driven to be a headman and also comes with a head man and a lot of cash.
Starting point is 00:48:47 But once you've been doing it for so long like Brian Kelly, I do wonder if you just lose your fastball to care. And I think we look at Nick Saban, and even Urban Meyer would have to tap. I just can't keep up this competitive stamina. And you have to wonder how many guys in college football are probably not working as hard. You know, if they were making a million dollars, maybe they'd work a little harder. But they're making 10. I have no problem with how much money anyone's making. But if you pay enough people $10 million,
Starting point is 00:49:16 you're going to get some people tapping out early on a Sunday afternoon headed to the golf course. Okay, really quick, before we dive into a couple more things. You know, I've got to tell you about my friends, game time. Best Ticketing app in America. Do you guys want to go to a professional football game this year? Do you want to go to a game? You want to go to Vegas.
Starting point is 00:49:40 You want to go to Denver. You want to go to L.A. You can go anywhere you want. You type in the team. You type in the ticket. Here's the great part about game time. They do not add fees when you're trying to check out. You know, sometimes you check out and it's like $100 and then all of a sudden it's like $175. It's like, well, that's not, the $100 was, that's not the case with Game Time.
Starting point is 00:49:57 Any of the numbers you see, the fees are already baked in there. That is the number you pay at checkout. And you can find professional football tickets for as cheap as $100. So take the guesswork out of buying professional football tickets with GameTime. Download the GameTime app, create an account and use ago, John, J.O.H.N. for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Again, create an account. Redeem the code, J-O-H-N for $20 off. Swipe, tap, ticket, go download the GameTime app today. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what?
Starting point is 00:50:25 We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts.
Starting point is 00:50:36 Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down?
Starting point is 00:51:00 Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
Starting point is 00:51:20 Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.
Starting point is 00:51:44 Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines.
Starting point is 00:52:10 We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slices Life 12 in the TikTok podcast.
Starting point is 00:52:42 network on TikTok. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis, and I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs Tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris, every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on clay. Jen she went down to three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay.
Starting point is 00:53:11 Listen, Lerner Rabakina is. arguably the best player in the world right now. And I actually can win on any surface. Because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your courtside seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Jacob Kingston grew up in an isolated polygamous sect. We were God's chosen kingdom on earth. He felt destined for greatness. So when a swaggering Armenian businessman catapults Jacob into an extraordinary world, he doesn't look back. Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, meeting the president of Turkey.
Starting point is 00:53:55 I'm Michelle McPhee, and this is one of the most shocking criminal conspiracies I've ever come across. When Jacob met Levant, this went to a billion dollar fraud. But with two kings from entirely different worlds, just how long can their empire survive? The largest tax investigation in American history. You need to tell me what you know. Is somebody coming after me? Jacob told Levan, you're ruining my life. Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:54:40 Back at it again. We're kind of like getting over the halfway mark, headed down, not quite the home stretch. It's probably be the dog days of football. obviously all of our content is presented by our friends at zone pouches. Stucky, you should be all over these things. They're fantastic if they sell them in Kentucky. I have throw one in as we do this. But here with my main man, Stucky, Action Network. This, you know, looking at the board, Stucky, not going to lie, it's starting to get a little hard.
Starting point is 00:55:07 You know, you got some teams who's checking in, who's checking out. I think it's a little like college football too. Once you realize you're out of the playoffs, like who's even going to try, you have some of these teams that made these big trades. like do we get, but like Eric Glenn's still trying to prove himself. You know, the Cardinal situation, there's just a lot good. The 49ers are a mass unit. We just have a lot of good teams like Tampa Bay with a lot of injuries.
Starting point is 00:55:32 I don't even know where to start, but how's your overall vibe check of the season going into November? It's been good. NFL's been good so far. Yeah, it's just, it's insane. This happens every year. My vibe check is my brain is fried. Like I have trying to keep up with all that in the NFL and college football, like everything that you alluded to, all of the injuries.
Starting point is 00:55:56 And then I also bet college basketball, so trying to keep up with. Didn't that just start a couple days ago? Yeah, with all the college basketball, new teams. It's insane. I wish I could go back to like 10 years ago. Didn't realize how good I had it when like all these teams didn't completely turn over their rosters every year. it was so much easier to prepare for and stay on top of.
Starting point is 00:56:19 But it's a labor of love. I love being in like the grind of it. You know, I kind of have like a teacher's schedule. So like I once it hits like April, May and you know, the first couple months of the summer, it's very nice to travel, relax, read. But for eight months out of the year, I'm just in. the in the hive but I I absolutely love it but I if I didn't have those couple months to completely check out I would be in an insane asylum within two years with all of the all of the
Starting point is 00:57:00 changes in college sports of late which makes it so much tougher but I love it I love trying to figure it out and the best thing about sports betting that I love the most like I used like I came from a finance background and been betting sports all my life for 20 plus years Like finance, you'll never, it's in the same vein. You'll never fully master it, right? Like even if you're talking about the stock market, sports betting, you will never, ever fully master it. You just try to get incrementally better.
Starting point is 00:57:29 You have to also, I love dealing with like the highs and lows, but a lot of people hate that, but I actually like doing that. You know, oh, you're cold. You've got to find a way out of it. Oh, you're hot. How can I maintain it? Like, it's, I love all of that. But, yeah, it's a craft that you just cannot.
Starting point is 00:57:44 master the market's always getting tougher it's always going to get more efficient and you have to try to work your way through and every season's different every week is different so i love it but it's definitely a grind uh and not a mental challenge you know i've anyone that i think that likes to gamble at a young age kind of gets naturally into the stock market right it's just kind of an easy transition. And obviously I bet, I guess you can consider it on the stock market, but I put a lot more money in the stock market, but you can just let it sit there. And like you said, like if I, I played a huge bet, let's say on Uber, it would take something pretty catastrophic to just knock it off where you can have a great team, like the Packers, and all of a sudden one week,
Starting point is 00:58:33 someone DM me the other day, they're like, why do you think the reaction on a weekly basis in football is so much different than these other sports? It's just like, it's just a numbers game. There's just less games. So if you're bad, you know, you wait all week and you kind of know what's coming, but then it comes and you're just like, and people are just mad. But when you're good, and I use the Packers as an example, you can stomach losing a tight game to the Lions and everyone gets their opinions, why you lose it or the Eagles.
Starting point is 00:58:59 But when you, everyone goes into that game as a Packer fan against the Panthers and definitely against the Browns, like we're winning. So when you lose, it'd be like all of a sudden if Uber was just down 25% today, I'd be like, what is going on? So when the Packers lose to the Panthers in Lambo, every single Packer fan and their fan base is enormous, is just at a loss. I mean, it's kind of stunning.
Starting point is 00:59:23 And that's, I think, the power of football more than, like, the Warriors lost last night to the Kings. It does not matter. You know, one, they sat their guys. But, like, the individual game just does not matter. Yeah. You know, in the grand scheme of things. Now, it may, if it's the difference of a game when they, you know,
Starting point is 00:59:39 they're 16 instead of the four, seed obviously. But like the individual reaction. Yeah, you're kind of faking it. The Packer game, that Carolina loss is just enormous in the grand scheme of things, right? It's just so people's reaction on Sunday night or on Monday in football, I don't think you can really overreact in football. Maybe you can't week one, but like where we're at now, some of these losses to good teams have like there's a lot on the line for Green Bay in Philadelphia on Monday night, right? That's same thing with Minnesota, Baltimore. Like there's just a lot. These games matter a lot.
Starting point is 01:00:12 Yeah, I'm not as panicked about the Packers. I mean, you also have to remember like it is in football. You're just going to have weird results. Like we could go back to late in the year when, two years ago, when the Chiefs, before they win the Super Bowl, the Chiefs lost to the Raiders on Christmas. Remember that game? Last year, the Ravens lost to the Raiders.
Starting point is 01:00:35 But they had been playing bad that year, right? Then they go 11 and 6. They ended up making the Super Bowl two years ago. They were not playing that. Mahomes went through a rough stretch. Yeah, but the Ravens last year. I know what you're saying. But it just happens.
Starting point is 01:00:48 Like the Packers didn't punt in the game. O'Connell didn't complete a pass for three quarters in that game. Like, the Chiefs never lose a game if your quarterback doesn't complete a pass for three quarters. Yeah. But like the Packer, it was just kind of a fluky game in weather. Crafts got hurt. He was going to be a big part of their game plan. But they didn't punt the entire game.
Starting point is 01:01:07 It was just like weird turnover. I mean, red zone stuff and missed fuel goals. They got to figure out their special teams. I still think that they're the, at the end of the day, I think the Packers are the best team. They're the most well-rounded team in the NFC. They do tend to get a little too conservative when they play down. Because like the Packers, when they play up,
Starting point is 01:01:30 they will be super aggressive. You know, they'll hit a ton of explosive plays. They'll throw it down to field a ton. Yeah. They kind of clam up a bit when they play. play these inferior teams, which I think can be a bit problematic. But I actually like them this week against Philly. I mean, just that home under a fuel goal. I don't think, I think if they win that game, that spread might have been a fuel goal. Well, let's just start with that game.
Starting point is 01:01:57 All lines are presented by Hard Rock Bet. That game will just jump right to Monday night. It's enormous. The underrated part about this franchise right now is, Harmon Policy's son, Ed Policy, got the job this offseason to be their president, which when that organization is a really big deal, because they don't have an owner. He has a lot of juice. And he said, we're not extending these guys. Now, I think Gutikins after the Parsons deal, and clearly their roster, probably safe, right? And they have, they're typically, they've had three GMs in, what, 30 years, Ron Wolf, Ted Thompson, now this guy.
Starting point is 01:02:32 And he was trained by Ted Thompson. I don't think Gutikins is going anywhere. I would outfire Gutikins. I think Gutakins is pretty good. But LaFleur, like when you say, you know, clam up, I think people, it's not like the teams, it's him. It starts with the head coach, who's the play caller. And he's had some big moments when he had Rogers. They were in the NFC championship game multiple times.
Starting point is 01:02:52 He's clearly solid. But I think this year, once you trade for Parsons, a ton of pressure in a weird way, the Eagles who are always this polarizing organization, and because of the way Howie and the pressure, it's just always pressure in every game they play in. It feels like they get to fly a little under the. radar. This game, Lambo, just losing this Carolina game, it's like all eyes are on the floor. And like, after Ed policy said that, can they, if they don't win the division, if they got bounced again in the first round, I don't think he'd be a lock to just keep his job. Now, you could also say, who are they replacing him with? Like, they're not just, we talked about
Starting point is 01:03:27 this yesterday when we were just meeting as a staff. Like, could they go to Halfley? It's like, you're not going to fire LaFleur for Halfley. That seems pretty crazy. But like, I do think there's just some growing. You feel the tight. in LaFleur last week. While it's funny when he's like, I don't give a shit about Halloween, you can't say that and then lose the Panthers. So it's like, you know, he,
Starting point is 01:03:47 I'll never forget, I was at the Titans practice, his one year as the offensive coordinator, he's kind of tightly wound. You know, he's, he's much more like Kyle than he is loose like Sean or Kevin. So, but he's not like,
Starting point is 01:04:02 he's not as good as Kyle, I don't think. So if you're going to be the tightly wound offensive guy. He's got a little gruden to him too. Like he's pretty conservative. He's pretty tight, but he's young. He's this good-looking guy, so you don't think that when you look at him, but when you watch his team play, but like you said, it wouldn't shock me at all if he beats the Eagles by like eight points, you know, and just kind of, they're in control of the game.
Starting point is 01:04:23 I just think he's a fascinating case study because we're talking about all these shitty jobs and these guys getting fired. Jonathan Gannon, probably fighting for his job going with Jacoby. I do think LaFleur feels this pressure of wanting to get like a five-year contract. Now, it's not college football. They easily could bring them back on a quote-unquote lame duck, right? You're not recruiting. He could coach next year.
Starting point is 01:04:44 You don't have to fire him this year. But I do think there's like the elephant in the room is the LaFleur factor for this team. Yeah, no, he's definitely an interesting case. I'm going to be, I like him. I think he's, I think it would be crazy. I do too. I'm not, I'm not anti-Lafloor at all. I think they would be crazy to move on from him. I also like Hathley, the higher there.
Starting point is 01:05:03 I'm just not fully sold. on the Eagles yet. Like, you know, you go back to that, but the offense people will say has looked better the past two games. That Vikings game, they just hit a couple bombs on missed-time blitz and coverages.
Starting point is 01:05:19 Other than that, they really didn't do much. They still haven't been running the ball well. And yeah, they tore apart the Giants. The Giants are the worst run defense in the NFL and we're playing with all backup secondary, all backup defensive backs. Like, their defense was a mess for that game. So I'm still not sold that under this new,
Starting point is 01:05:36 offensive coordinator that their offense is fixed. Like they're they are top three or bottom three depending on you look at it in the league and three and out rate. They've just been historically good in the red zone on four downs. The Green Bay offense is still much more efficient. I mean, Jordan Love is still top two in the league and eat paper play versus man and verse zone. Hurt still and this offense still have struggles when they're under pressure and verse zone. They're going to see a lot of both against the Packers. And this Eagles defense, it's definitely not the same caliber as last year. So I think the Packers is the better team.
Starting point is 01:06:13 I know the Eagles are coming off of a buy, but you get them at home. I think they're more well-rounded. I think you'll get their best effort here. So under a field goal, I like them there, but you're right. It's a huge game, especially because it's bigger for the Packers because the Eagles, I mean, it could end up determining the one seed. Yeah, their divisions are relevant. But their division is over.
Starting point is 01:06:36 So the Packers, like, yeah, so this game could end up determining the one seat, which is big for both. But if the Packers lose all of a sudden, like, you're now much more in that mesh, you're even going to win your division. And if you don't do that, you know, you're on the road in your first playoff game. And the NFC is deep this year. So I think it's definitely much more important for the Packers, but the Eagles could definitely position themselves well for the one seed.
Starting point is 01:07:01 Because the other players for that, are mainly coming, you know, you look at the Rams. I don't think the 49ers there, but the Seahawks, but I think the Cardinals are really feisty still. It's like that division, you're probably going to have some more losses in there, whereas the Eagles, their division, much easier path. So, yeah, huge game for both. I'm really looking forward to it.
Starting point is 01:07:27 I think it'll be a really big game playoff rematch from last year. And a game where Green Bay was right there in Philly, they were dealing with some injuries, and their defense definitely was not as good as it is this year. I think you get their best effort here. So I do like Green Bay under a field goal. And the good thing for the Packers is, now they still have to play Chicago twice, but like Chicago's good enough where they could win any divisional game. It's not that crazy. You know, it's more variable there. So like all four teams can beat each other in a given matchup, and there's still a lot of, I think the Packers still have to play multiple games against the Bears.
Starting point is 01:07:59 They still have to go to Detroit. they go I think they get Minnesota they get Minnesota at home I think so yeah the Eagles have they still play the commanders twice who are a mash unit with Daniels probably out for the year they have the Raiders
Starting point is 01:08:19 they host the bears they get the Cowboys again so these next The Eagles are getting to 12 minimum it's like can they get to 14 right Yeah now I think they'll drop They'll probably drop a couple more but it probably won't matter. I mean, if you get the 12, there's a good shot, I think.
Starting point is 01:08:36 At the one seat? That they get the one seat in the NFC, just because the divisions are so loaded this year that it's hard to see many teams get into 13 with how competitive. Like the one team that would be your candidate is probably the Eagles because of their division. But they go, and this next two weeks will determine that. They go to Green Bay, they host Detroit.
Starting point is 01:08:59 And then later in the year, they're at the bill. So if they go two and three in those games, they're in great shape. Yeah, yeah. And the thing is, in the NFC West, what could throw it off is that line is, you know, I just don't think they know what to do with the 49ers right now. But they do, obviously, they play the Rams this week at home. And their first game when they beat Seattle was in Seattle, so they still get Seattle at home.
Starting point is 01:09:21 And they get some home games. It's not like, you know, Levi Stadium is exactly Arrowhead. But it is a pretty big advantage to get a home game. Don't have to travel. So, yeah, so that's a tough game. Let's just start with that game because I do think the 49ers, you know, I mean, this pretty thing clearly, I mean, he might play one more game this season and then it gets worse. Like, Mac Jones is their quarterback.
Starting point is 01:09:42 But they've been competing and winning games with Mac Jones. It's more of the other things. Like they lose Bryce Huff and immediately he was by far their best pass rusher once Bosa goes out. But the problem is he's a part-time player and he had to play a bunch and what happens? It gets hurt on the last play of the game. So it's like last week or a couple weeks ago against Texans, they were rolling out me and you, and their defense lines is not good enough. And they're just rolling with a bunch of random guys on defense.
Starting point is 01:10:05 I mean, he lost a lot of their deaf guys. So like Williams, Gross Matos, even those guys are on IR. Yeah, and Pierceall's knees clearly messed up. He's not able to play. So their most explosive pass catcher beside Kittle is out. And Kendrick Boren has been really good. But, you know, the Rams have a lot of momentum coming into this game. Now, Kyle's always played Sean McVey really well.
Starting point is 01:10:24 But just from a strength standpoint, that they are, you're playing a healthy team versus a team that's just, on fumes and look what it took for the 49ers to win that game in LA. A crazy fumble late in the game. Mac Jones played the game of his life, and Stafford had, what, 350 yards and three touchdowns? So it's like, if you tell me that Stafford throws for 350 yards and three touchdowns again, I do think you're going to get to the point where it's just going to be hard for the 49ers to win.
Starting point is 01:10:49 Now, if it's a 10-point game and maybe they get a late touchdown, I just think that four and a half is kind of tasty. But that's, I'm leaning the 49ers there. you know, at home, big dog. But at the end of the day, this doesn't make or break their season losing this game, right? Splitting with the Rams, I think they would have taken that at the beginning of the season, right? For sure. Yeah, tough game, because I don't mind the over.
Starting point is 01:11:15 I know when divisional foes meet for the second time, those games tend to trend under a bit just because of familiarity historically. But I think there's two things. Before Niners' offense is clearly in a better spot than it was. was from the first game because Kittle does add so much. Yeah. Not only his ability to catch, but in the running game with his blocking, it's just the best all around tight end in the NFL.
Starting point is 01:11:41 So their offense is in a better spot, but the defense is not. And I just, I don't even know if anybody knows how bad this 49ers defense might be. Because after all the injuries, they played Houston, who didn't have any receivers. and then they played the Giants who also had injury ravaged, but the Giants still put up 24. The Texans had the ball the entire game. Like one of the Texans ever had the ball for 40 minutes in the game?
Starting point is 01:12:12 So they were the best game in like two years, right? Yeah. They cannot generate pressure. Like it's so their defense, and now they're going up against one of the best offenses in the NFL. So I think it's going to be very, very difficult for them to get stops. And their Rams play fast. They're probably going to throw a lot.
Starting point is 01:12:29 and have a lot of success. Nakua's back. He's huge against zone heavy defenses. But on the flip side, I also think the Rams have, at the moment, the most overrated defense in the league. Now, I don't think there are a bad defense by any stretch. But, like, if you look at statistically, like, EPA per play, like, they're number one.
Starting point is 01:12:47 Like, statistically, they're the number one defense in the league right now in a lot of metrics. Like, the Texans are the best past defense. I think the Texans are the best defense overall. But by a lot of metrics, the Rams are up there at the top of leaderboard. Well, that's what happens when you play Cooper Rush and the Ravens, Tyler Shuck and the Saints, the Jaguars in London.
Starting point is 01:13:08 That's their last three games. So they've definitely benefited from who they played and when. I do think that that back end, that secondary is still vulnerable. The 49ers are playing. Mac Jones lit them up. Yeah. Kendrick Borg.
Starting point is 01:13:22 Through 3.50. And Kittle didn't even play in that game. Now, the 49ers are playing, faster than they usually do with Mac Jones, and they're throwing more. Jones lit them up underneath last game. So I would imagine the Rams don't let that happen. So I think there's going to be more opportunities for some more explosive plays for the 49ers down the field, which are always helpful to and over.
Starting point is 01:13:49 So, yeah, I don't mind the 49ers look. Who on the 49ers can stretch the field, though? Yeah, that's true. That's where Pierceall would be big to have. You just got to hope that Jennings continues and, like, Kittle down the scene, but Jennings continues to, like, just get more in tune with this offense, but it is a good point.
Starting point is 01:14:06 I will say, this has been a dog-dominated series. This is getting to the point where it's, like, Steelers, Ravens. These teams have met 14 times since 2019, including the playoffs. Underdog, 13 and 1 against the spread. 10 of the 14 outright have been won by the underdog. So this is usually a lot of familiarity, divisional opponents. Like these games are usually tight.
Starting point is 01:14:34 The dog is usually a good bet. I just, I don't know, I fear that I don't, I'm not even accounting for these 49ers defensive injuries enough. And they're just going to get card because they just haven't seen potent offense like the Rams since they've been this decimated. So that, that's my main fear there. Rams also dealing with some kicker issues. So you could see McVeigh be more aggressive here on Fort Downs.
Starting point is 01:15:02 They signed the thicker kicker, Harrison Niedis, but we'll see. I'm looking forward to that one, though, but it has been a dog-dominated series. And one issue is if the Niners are down, pass blocking is a struggle. And one thing the Rams can do is their defensive line can get after. That's the strength of a be by far. It's like I can envision Mack Jones getting hit so. hard he's just laying there on the ground. It's like, oh, this guy better get up or Adrian Martinez is coming in.
Starting point is 01:15:29 Because that basically happened in that first game, he just tucked it out. But as, you know, he's just, he's tough. I've come around, I have a lot of respect for Mac Jones. There's no disputing his toughness, right? I mean, he's been getting fucking peppered this season and keeping the 49ers alive. No, it's a good point. That could be the downfall. Like, if you're the Rams, that's what I would do. I would take away everything underneath, make the 49ers hit more downfield shots, more
Starting point is 01:15:53 long developing routes while letting your pass rush get home. Because if you're letting them kill you underneath, you're also neutering your pass rush, which is the strength of your defense. So, yeah, that is a very valid point. But, yeah, I'm really looking forward to it. I do think both the 49th defense is a mess. And I do think the Rams defense is a bit overrated at the moment,
Starting point is 01:16:13 but we'll see if the 49ers can take advantage. Yeah, their downfall why they might not win the Super Bowl is going to be the secondary. Yeah, playing Seattle, even Philly can hit big plays on them. obviously Green Bay. They're not going to be able to cover. Yeah, I would have liked them to just add one more piece. Like prior to the season or at the trade deadline on the back end. Like they are like one really good piece in the secondary way from, I think,
Starting point is 01:16:38 just being the most well-rounded team in the NFC. I haven't seen a story come out, but I'd be shocked if they weren't also talking about the sauce situation. But having been in that world, Jalen Ramsey was a much better player when they traded for him. and a much more versatile player, much more physical tackler. I mean, he's just a better player. I mean, if you could take either guy in his prime, I'm taking Jalen Ramsey, not even hesitating.
Starting point is 01:17:01 And they did that same exact trade for a better player. So it's like, we're not going to get in a bidding war for a guy that wasn't as good as we've already made this trade. So that's probably we're like, yeah, we're not going to quote unquote overpay. Even Sauce is like, you know, I get it. They gave up a lot to get me. I say that today. I was like, I like, well, this guy's, I like Sauce. The person probably more than the player.
Starting point is 01:17:19 He's a big golf guy. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.
Starting point is 01:17:38 We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it.
Starting point is 01:17:53 Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast where people could call in and say, Hey Jonas.
Starting point is 01:18:11 And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite on Humor Me with Robert Smygel and Friends.
Starting point is 01:18:33 Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app,
Starting point is 01:18:54 Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get. your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you
Starting point is 01:19:31 context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slicelive 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis. And I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris. Every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on Clay.
Starting point is 01:20:06 Genshin win. I mean, she went down in three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lina Rabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now, and I actually can win on any surface, because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court-side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 01:20:33 Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Jacob Kingston grew up in an isolated polygamous sect. We were God's chosen kingdom on earth. He felt destined for greatness. So when a swaggering Armenian businessman catapults Jacob into an extraordinary world, He doesn't look back. Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, meeting the president of Turkey.
Starting point is 01:20:59 I'm Michelle McPhee, and this is one of the most shocking criminal conspiracies I've ever come across. When Jacob met Levant, this went to a billion dollar fraud. But with two kings from entirely different worlds, just how long can their empire survive? The largest tax investigation in American history. You need to tell me what you know.
Starting point is 01:21:22 Is somebody coming? after me. Jacob told Levan, you're ruining my life. Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Bills,
Starting point is 01:21:45 I typically, you know, you've taught me this over the years, when everyone hates a team and you get these huge lines, especially divisional games, I just wonder Miami at this point if it could just really start to unravel. And this is a spot, like if the bills are truly, you know,
Starting point is 01:22:01 a Super Bowl contender or a team that's going to win the AFC, you come in and you just put your foot on their throat. Now, this line's big, nine and a half, but you watch the bill's defensive lines. Like, if they played, like they do against the Chiefs, against other random opponents, they would have way more blowouts. I mean, they occasionally do, right?
Starting point is 01:22:19 You'll just look up and they'll be playing like the Saints or the Panthers. I forget it, and they were up like 40. Yeah, they beat the Panthers back 30. Yeah. But it's like they'll also be in that game and it's like, is it 17 to 17 right now? So it's like they get up for the Chiefs and they play Super Bowl winning football. And then they play this week.
Starting point is 01:22:34 But I would imagine this is a spot where it's like, hey guys. And luckily, they still got a lot to play for because New England is right there with them and already beat them. So I expect a spirited effort. And I just wonder when Miami does the 1, 2, 3 Bahamas. You know, I mean, the GM, firing a GM doesn't really impact the players. But the McDaniel situation, you know, it's like these guys listening to them, know, like more than likely, I'm going to be on another team next year.
Starting point is 01:23:03 I just think this thing could get really weird, really fast. The Tua thing is getting weirder by the week. If the bills are real, they win this game by like 20 points. So I'm hammering the bills here, minus nine and a half. Yeah, I don't blame you. I mean, on principle, I can't join you. Like, this is just by low, sell high principles. Like the dolphins got blown out on Thursday night, get extra rest.
Starting point is 01:23:26 The bills just had max effort, win as an underdog against the Chiefs. now they go on the road to a divisional opponent who played them pretty well in the first meeting. So it's kind of like a sleigh, you know, down to Miami. It's just so, I could see them coming out so flat. It is a sleepy environment there. Yeah, like, and they suck. So, and the Dolphids might be able to run the ball a bit.
Starting point is 01:23:49 Like that's the, that's Buffalo's. But, I mean, I can't, I can't talk you out of it. I will say the bills, like the bills have been able to get pressure all year. What has held them back in the play? has always been their defense. Their offense has always been fine. You can look back at any playoff loss. It's never on the offense. It's always been the defense letting them down. And a lot of that in recent seasons has been the secondary. And that was my biggest question for them coming into the year. I thought they might add a piece at the trade deadline. But last week,
Starting point is 01:24:19 there was two really eye-opening performances that might get them over the hump. Cole Bishop. Bishop's play, Utah. Utah. kid and then Harrison a Kentucky kid in my backyard their first round draft pick who was hurt for most of the year until the past two games he looked outstanding that his speed at corner like especially against worthy um really jumped off the page how did he last at the end of the first round injury a lot of injuries uh he was hurt all last year hurt start this year um so that was there was a lot of injury. He has all the tools, the speed. He's a top 15 talent.
Starting point is 01:25:02 Yeah. But there was just a ton of injury question marks with him. And again, this year, he hasn't played until the past two games. So, but if he can continue his play of late, that's a huge boost. And same with Bishop, because safety is an enormous question for the bills this season. So that really could unlock their entire defense
Starting point is 01:25:25 and help them finally get over the hump. Yeah, if the bills are like locked in fully here, then this is trouble for Miami. I just fear the spot and then coming out a bit flat and Miami might be able to run the ball. And Buffalo might just like go through the motions running it. So yeah, I can't get there, but I can't blame you. Baltimore at Minnesota, J.G. McCarthy quieted everyone down a little bit. those first two touchdowns, then the game kind of got weird, but he did make a game winning throw. The Ravens, long rest, you know, 10 days, obviously he played last Thursday, some momentum coming into this game.
Starting point is 01:26:09 Brian Flores was, he was, as the kids would say, in his bag in that game. Obviously, he was super fired up. I mean, that was a kitchen sink game from Brian Flores. I just, do you trust J.J. McCarthy in this spot? That's where I get back to. no not yet i mean last week i mean what he threw for 140 yards uh and the lines had a bunch of backup defense secondary defensive backs in there and then i think the viking started like in detroit territory and four other five scoring drives so that was all about the defense and
Starting point is 01:26:42 before i circle back on this game the lions are broken right now like i last week was a spot they they don't they never lose right home off the buy first is just at home they're not even covered but to lose that game their offense since october 1st the lion's offense 24th in success rate 17th EPA for play 29th in rush success rate by the way over that stretch the bears are number one so the bears run game is cooking the lions are not part of that ben jonson's departure and like everyone was like oh it's fine and the first half the year but like they beat the braven's defense that was decimated at the time and then like the bucks and then everyone was like oh it's fine
Starting point is 01:27:25 this offensive line is also not fine they're gonna move a guard to their center to guard now their guard at the mahogany's out their backup it's a mess in the interior both their tackles might miss this game their offensive line can't block florist took full advantage they were
Starting point is 01:27:41 blitzing up the middle and you have goth with pressure we can't move yeah it's going to be a disaster we'll see if the commanders can take advantage I did bet the commanders plus eight and a half I think it's way too high like it would have been three, three and a half with Daniels. Daniels right now over Marriott is not worth like five or six points.
Starting point is 01:27:59 I mean, Marriott over the past two seasons, has been statistically the same as Daniels. If you look at their offense, they can run the ball. He's just not worth six points in moment. Their offense hasn't been clicking. The lines of all these offensive line injuries, they're still not fully healthy in the secondary. Ultimate by low spot.
Starting point is 01:28:15 You could say the same about the lines. They are 12-0 against this spread after the past 12 losses, but I took over a touchdown there. But getting back to the Ravens, I played them first half. First half minus two and a half. I had some gaudy numbers on the Ravens and Lamar in the first half. It is like one of the best spots to bet in the NFL since Lamar has entered the league. In the first half, overall, on its career, he's 61, 36 and 2 against the spread, 63%.
Starting point is 01:28:47 Covering by about a field goal per game, which is insane. Average cover margin in the first half is by a field goal per game. How about as a favorite in the first half, 53, 30, and two against the spread 64% covering by three and a half points per game? How about as a road favorite, 28, 10, and 1 against the spread 74% covering by five points per game. Usually the Ravens are very well prepared early in games. Usually it's a shock to the system when you see Lamar and his speed and teams that don't see him often. Usually it takes them time to adjust. and you see the Ravens jump out to Leeds early on.
Starting point is 01:29:24 I think all of that's in play here, the Ravens having extra time to prepare. Lamar is extra time to heal up. I think you'll see him be more mobile this week. The offense is also now 100% healthy. Like not only was Lamar out, like you had Ricard, likely, all the guys that enable them to play the packages
Starting point is 01:29:44 that they need to play to give them the advantages that other offenses don't have. Right? You don't see the same low. looks as you do when you play the Ravens against other teams. And that's one of the reasons they have such an advantage. And it's so much more difficult for defenses to play them as opposed to playing, you know, these spread offenses, the 11 personnel. Their offense is now fully healthy. Their defense is also now fully healthy. And you look at their injury report, no one on there
Starting point is 01:30:10 this week. The defensive line is still an issue. That's the only place to have injuries, but they're out for the year like Madagouque, huge loss. They added Draymont Jones from the Titans helps a bit, but their run D will still be an issue. But the Vikings are not an efficient rushing attack, bottom 10 in the NFL. So I don't think they can fully take advantage. So I expect the Ravens to come out here, jump out to a lead.
Starting point is 01:30:32 They're also number one in explosive run rate. Vikings really struggle in that department. So I like the Ravens first half. They've also been blitzing a lot lately, blitzing more because their defensive line can't generate pressure. McCarthy's really struggled against the blitz so far. I am very fascinated by the matchup of Lamar versus Flores. I think in their first meeting, which was like seven, eight years ago,
Starting point is 01:30:57 when Flores was in Miami, Lamar beat him 59 to 10. And by the way, Lamar is the best quarterback in the league against the Blitz right now, which is another scary thing for the Vikings. I mean, Lamar versus the blitz this year, he's completing 79% of his passes. The next best is 72. He has seven touchdowns, one interception, and he's completing 79% of his passes.
Starting point is 01:31:20 He has the second highest yards per attempt and the fourth highest A-D. So he's also throwing it down the field to completing 80% of his passes. You just can't blitz Lamar. However, there was a game, you might remember this game. I think it was in like 2021,
Starting point is 01:31:34 where it was on a short week, Thursday night game in Miami. Baltimore went down there and Flores had Lamar lost. He ran the same blitz 33. times in this game, the same middle fire blitz. It was insane and the Ravens couldn't figure out what to do. And the Marr was under pressure the entire game. So I am fascinating to see how that plays out. But it's, uh, did Flacco come into that game and get killed or is that a different game?
Starting point is 01:32:03 I think that was a different. Didn't Flacco get killed one night on a Thursday night game? Yeah, he did. I think that was a different spot. But I do remember that too. But this game was, was, was wild. Like Flores had Lamar flustered. Now I hope. That was a shot. short week going down to Miami, like extra time to prepare you, fully healthy on offense. I like the Ravens. I like the Ravens in the first half for sure. Jacksonville at the Texans, obviously, CJ's out. Texans' home dog.
Starting point is 01:32:32 I don't really know what to make a Davis Mills. Obviously, they got a ton of injuries as well. Jacksonville's wide receivers are just in shambles. They have to trade for Jacoby Myers. I honestly kind of like the Texans in this spot. I just think they're going to get after Trevor Lawrence. Yeah, that's probably what decides this. Now that they're a dog, I would look at Texans or nothing.
Starting point is 01:32:57 If you're a tease or better, I don't mind like teasing the Texans now up over a touchdown with like the Jets. I know that's ugly, but like that total, both games are at a total of like 38. The Jets, there's a ton of weather. I know sauce is no longer there, but it's the Brown's offense. Like, does that really matter? So, yeah, I mean, the one thing I worry about with the Texans who, I mean, they should have beat the Broncos last thing. If Stroud doesn't go down, it was unfortunate.
Starting point is 01:33:24 But they have the best defense in the league, in my opinion. That should win them in the game here. The Jags offense is a mess right now, especially at receiver. I'm not sure that they can block Houston. One of my fears, though, and look, Houston's, their weapons are healthy now. Like, you have Collins, you have Kirk. My fear is that they lost Titus Howard in that game last week to an injury. And that's like Titus Howard's on an elite tackle, but he's better than the backup fissure.
Starting point is 01:33:54 It was really bad. And the Jags do have pass rushers. But the Texans have, they have made a pretty smart change over the past couple weeks, and it's solved some of their past protection issues. Because the Broncos last week had their second lowest pressure rate of the season. the 49ers couldn't get any pressure, but that was a lot to do with the 49ers. But they started using a lot more six offensive linemen packages. They've been going jumbo to help out with protection and help Stroud out.
Starting point is 01:34:21 And it's paid dividends. But if Howard's out, can they do that as often? And then when they don't, your right tackle is much weaker. So that is a bit of a concern. But now that this line is flipped to Houston as an underdog, I think that's the play. The same with the Jets. Like it's ugly. Who wants to bet the Jets now?
Starting point is 01:34:42 But now that that line is flipped through the Jets and I don't know. I just don't think that Dillon Gabriel should be a road favorite. And the Brown's defense, we've seen it for three years. It is not the same unit for whatever reason on the road. They just do not play up to the same level when they're outside of the land. And like I said, sauce not going to be there. Who cares? I mean, Gabriel's success rate is like 36% lowest in the lowest.
Starting point is 01:35:09 in the league by a wide margin. That offense is not going to take full advantage. Quinn and Williams' loss will hurt as a runstopper, but he's a deep tackle. Like, he's not worth three, four points to the spread. So I like the Jets to the dog. God forbid, if you bet that game, you have to watch it.
Starting point is 01:35:28 There's going to be rain, and it's going to be ugly. But, yeah, I would look at both the Texans and Jets as home dogs. Colts, what was your initial reaction when you saw the trade? I thought it was way too expensive because I'm just not a believer in Daniel Jones. Now, if they are a believer in Daniel Jones, then they think they can win a Super Bowl, that's how we will grade this trade. Like, remember the Rams, some of their moves that they made, and everyone was like, what are they doing? They trade all their graphics way.
Starting point is 01:36:05 They got a Super Bowl. so you can't lose the right move it was right now I know like it's playing Monday morning quarterback but that's what you're in this to do is win a Super Bowl and they went to another one like they were winning big games yes so I do like I think
Starting point is 01:36:20 I like that that Ballard is now being aggressive in the secondary might be because his seat was getting a little warm it's something that he's neglected for years but Ward getting Ward Gardner and you have Kenny Moore in the slot now you know that's arguably
Starting point is 01:36:36 the best corner trio in the NFL. Your safeties are solid because you went out and you added safeties in the all season. You also got rid of your horrendous defensive coordinator and you brought in a pretty good one. Like now the defense, especially once Ward comes back, it's, the pass
Starting point is 01:36:52 far still isn't great, but it's championship caliber. The offense, you have the offensive line, you have the best running back in the NFL. You have great weapons, great versatile weapons, every it just comes down
Starting point is 01:37:08 of the quarterback. Now, you believe in Daniel Jones and you will go after it and you think you can win a Super Bowl, then I think it's the right move. Even if you, I think it was too much to give up. However, I don't believe in Daniel Jones. Like, I don't think Daniel Jones can win a Super Bowl. So,
Starting point is 01:37:24 therefore, I would not have done it. Like, when Ward comes back, your secondary is good enough. Do you want to, like, but they must believe in Jones, because that's what this signals. This signals that they believe in Jones. They don't need to get another quarterback. They don't need draft capital. And they're going to be in on him for this year next and so on. So but I think at the end of the day, we have a large sample size that says
Starting point is 01:37:52 who Jones is. And I know that the situation wasn't great. But I mean, look at last week against the Steelers defense that couldn't stop a nosebleed all year. And they end up turning the ball over every other possession. He looks flustered. And I just can't see at the end of the day to get through the AFC, you're going to need to have an elite quarterback who can go toe to toe to with Alan, with Mahomes, with potentially Lamar. I don't see it. But I like that they're finally being aggressive and it's exciting for Colts fans. In terms of this week, I do think the line is too high, just like last year. Couldn't they just put, aren't they just going to put sauce on Drake London probably?
Starting point is 01:38:35 Yeah, so I played the Falcons My worst bet of the week I still show value in it But I bet it before I bet them plus six Because I showed value I think it should be like four four and ath Like I think the Colts are just overvalued right now
Starting point is 01:38:48 Just like last week But now There's a couple things that worked against me They traded for Gardner A lot of uncertainty there though I think he's going to start And one of the reasons I bet the Falcons does London without Ward is going to have a huge advantage here
Starting point is 01:39:02 But now can Gardner neutralize him. I mean, Gardner, all he does is line up against ones and that forces the tightest throw rate in the entire league. I don't know. I mean, in a short week with international travel, is he like fully up to speed? Are he going to play every snap? Are they going to, is he just going to play one side of the field and keep it simple? Are they going to have just packages for it? I don't, I really don't know. But that's obviously a huge upgrade for who they had on the outside and it takes away the potential advantage for London. Additionally, I haven't seen the injury report yet today. but the Falcons could be without both of their guards. And that could be devastating. They're already without their right tackle. Both their guards are excellent and their backups. They have no depth.
Starting point is 01:39:45 So they could be short-handed along the offensive line. It's also not a great matchup for the Falcons because the Falcons should be out there on defense. At least, like Harrison should be back. Bowman should be back. It's been really good as a rookie. And the Falcons pasty's been excellent. They don't allow any explosive passes. One of the reasons why I bet him last week against the Patriots.
Starting point is 01:40:04 they also can get pressure. That could end up being the difference, like if they just forced Daniel Jones into being a pumpkin again. But the Falcons can't stop the run. And especially without Devon Diablo's on IR, and their backup linebackers are really poor in that department. And Stiking came out after last week and said,
Starting point is 01:40:23 look, I didn't give the ball to Jonathan Taylor enough last week. So what does that lead you to believe? Well, this is going to be a big Jonathan Taylor game. And like the Patriots can't, on the ball. So that was good for the Falcons last week. The Colts can. So if the Colts then are just gashing them with Taylor, that means your safety's got to start coming up. And then that means your play action. And then you're going to have all the throws that Jones can make and has made, you know, your easy throws to all of their weapons with the defense just fully committing to Taylor,
Starting point is 01:40:58 who they might not be able to stop. So yeah, with Gardner in the mix, the offensive line injuries with the Falcons. I do not like them as much as I did. My numbers still do, but matchup and other factors now with Gardner being added and that uncertainty around that probably wouldn't play it now. If it does get to a seven, I would still play the Falcons, but not the best matchup for them. Very inconsistent team, too. Like, what are you getting from the Falcons on a weekend, weekout basis? You never know. We talked about this last week, the Tomlin spot, and it was kind of at a fork in the road for a season for for his career potentially with Pittsburgh
Starting point is 01:41:34 and they answered the bell but there was a moment in that game they're down 7-0 and the Colts had like a 14-play drive and they'd only gone like 40 yards but it was like is this how your guy is just going to go out just getting just slowly bludgeon to death and then TJ came through with that fumble sack and then it turned and then they rattled off 17 points and then the floodgates opened with their pass rush
Starting point is 01:41:55 well the Chargers you know alt is out now that offensive line, man, is just, if that Steelers' defensive line plays like they just did, I don't see how the Chargers can win the game, especially, let's face it, they become pretty pass happy. Greg Roman's kind of changed his tune this year, rightfully so. He has one of the best quarterbacks in the league. But how are they going to protect them? But I bet on this before, and all of a sudden, TJs just know where to be found.
Starting point is 01:42:22 But when they play like they did last week and he starts playing well, it opens up for everyone else. And then you just got guys coming from all different angles. And I can just envision if they have the same defensive line effort, I just don't see how, I like the Steelers here plus three. Plus, you know, this home field for the Chargers, there are going to be. It is going to be 80%. I mean, I remember going to Raider games at the Coliseum when they would play the Steelers, and I swore to God, it was like basically a Steelers home game. They have a lot of fans, and they have a ton that live on the West Coast. This place is going to be loud. They're going to have to silent count, I'm sure.
Starting point is 01:42:58 And to me, it just all comes down to, do I get this similar effort from the front? Because if I do, then it's on like Donkey Kong. If not, then, yeah, I mean, it wouldn't shock me at all if the Chargers win. But I'm just betting on this pass rush. Maybe I'm an idiot, but I'm taking the Steelers here, plus three. Yeah, I don't mind taking the points here. One other note on the Colts, just there will be a game soon when they get fourth down out of the game. So Stuyken's very aggressive.
Starting point is 01:43:24 of their 15 of 17 on fourth down this year. Their opponents are 9 of 18. So they've been very fortunate. But they're going to have a game. Like last week I think they were three of three or four or four again. They're going to have a game where they go like, oh, three on four downs to kill three scoring drives and then get upset. So they have some pending fourth down variance if it's coming.
Starting point is 01:43:46 Just start to throw that out there. But that's a big reason to like when you, you know, historically when you see didn't punt, it was always like, oh, they probably scored 40 points. Now that happens a lot. It's like, well, these teams are going for on fourth down. It's like it's a little bit of a different, the game is played a little differently than it was 10, 15, 20 years ago, right? Yep. In regards to the Chargers, yeah, the viewers also, I will note, I talked about this last week.
Starting point is 01:44:10 I said, hey, with all these injuries with the Sean Elliott out and like, this is the time where let's, I want to see what they change. They should change their coverage. They should go more too high against Daniel Jones, who's not as good against too high and will make mistakes. Well, that's what they did. They went more too high as much as they did all year, and they put Ramsey back at safety. So they made some changes that paid off on the back end, and then their pass rushers came to play, because that's a good Colts offensive line, and they made plays. And that's usually what happens when the Steelers win games, and when they win as underdogs,
Starting point is 01:44:42 it's a huge, it's almost like a replay of Watt, beating the tackle, and then stripping the quarterback and recovering it. I mean, how many times have we seen that? 32 times over the past year. And it's a game-changing play. So, yeah, the alt loss is just devastating. I mean, there's not many teams. There's just an epidemic in the NFL with lack of offensive line, depth, and caliber of play.
Starting point is 01:45:14 When you have two book-end, you know, pro-bow caliber tackles, that is such an advantage over the rest of the league. many teams can say that. But losing both is not, I don't think any team can really overcome that. And they've also had other injuries in the interior and the center has been a mess. But that's, if you look now, it's probably not as drastic, but this is what the numbers say. If you just look at the on-off splits with with all and without all. And the numbers said this, and to be honest with you, the eye test says it. I mean, it's crazy. There, they go they're a top five offense over the past two years with all and a bottom five offense without without now i don't think he's worth that much but it's it's drastic especially when you
Starting point is 01:46:05 don't have slater if you want to go other tackle like the trickle-down effect is massive and the steelers are specifically built to take full advantage um so everyone in the afc has good pass rushers and specifically in their division right you can put guys over the tackle once you you have a weak link from Max Crosby, obviously Denver and the Chiefs, that it can expose you in the blink of an eye. And that's where the Steelers fall, right? Yeah. The one team that doesn't is the Ravens.
Starting point is 01:46:33 If you're a Chargers fan, you wouldn't mind seeing the ratings from that aspect, because they don't have the elite edge rushers. They're like defensive line. The Chargers could handle that. So that would just be a shootout. The Chargers and Ravens play in the playoffs. It's probably a good over. Anyway, I'm getting ahead of myself.
Starting point is 01:46:56 So, yeah, that could just wreck the game. And this offense is not the same without all, because they already don't have Slater. And it will, in all likelihood, cap the charger's ceiling. Now, they went out and they traded for Trevor Penning. I mean, that's not going to move the needle. But there was nothing they really can do because tackles are expensive. They're also very rare.
Starting point is 01:47:21 they're the very scarce resource. So you can't go out and like break the bank for a tackle at the trade deadline when you already have two pro bowlers there to come back next year. So you're just stuck. And you got to get Penning and play him at tackle even though he's more of a guard and failed at tackle in New Orleans. That's their solution. It's like Bobby Hart and Trevor Penning.
Starting point is 01:47:48 Bechton might not even play. Bozeman's been one of the worst centers in the league. It's a mess, and it's probably going to cap their ceiling, and it'll probably prevent them from having a chance of making a run at winning the Super Bowl. So I imagine that this is next year is a huge year for the Chargers and for Herbert. They'll be interesting in the futures market. Harbaal's continuing to kind of build that roster how he wants it
Starting point is 01:48:17 and kind of forming it. and like now you give them one more offseason plug some of the holes that they have there's still some holes on that defense that they could fix and then you get the tackles healthy I think maybe another interior offensive line they got to fix the center Slater's injury was really bad though
Starting point is 01:48:35 like it was like a devastating knee injury I think yeah that's fair and stuff you just never know I mean I'm rooting for them but it was like it wasn't just your typical it's like Brandon Ayuk it wasn't just an ACL was all these ligaments and like Brandon I use probably not even going to play this year it's like
Starting point is 01:48:48 it's that's true that's just the one red flag obviously if all it's there you can figure out another tackle if slater's career let's say is in question in the offseason it's easier to handle that than yeah right now but i think next season is the the more intriguing season for the chargers now and yeah i don't mind taking the three on sunday night because it might just be that simple that the and the steelers have moved the wall efficiently with rogers yeah and they're they're unique to play against. They're kind of like a, this is another thing I liked about the Steelers last week
Starting point is 01:49:21 is against the Colts. The Colts can't cover tight ends to say their lives, which might be an issue in the IFC playoffs. And another reason why I don't love the Falcons is because the Falcons have to just like one tight end. They don't, but the Steelers play very unique.
Starting point is 01:49:34 They play with all these tight ends and it's not like your normal offense that you're going to see. Why wouldn't they give up their third rounder for Briseau? Yeah, I could have seen. I thought the chief, I really did think the chiefs were going to, the chiefs just refused to like,
Starting point is 01:49:48 I guess they like Prashat Smith, but. Well, they offered a four. They just wouldn't go to three. Yeah. Is the report today. But I mean, they draft, they used a first on a running back recently.
Starting point is 01:49:58 I guess they saw how that worked out. So, yeah, I think it's harder for them. They got some high price guys. They aren't going anywhere. You know, you kind of need those picks.
Starting point is 01:50:07 That's fair. Yeah, I mean, because they do have to worry about continuing to build that roster up with youth. So, yeah, I was surprised. surprised he didn't get moved though.
Starting point is 01:50:17 So was he. So was he. Yeah. So was good. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name?
Starting point is 01:50:30 Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend.
Starting point is 01:50:43 But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about, what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.
Starting point is 01:51:04 I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, Hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast. or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it.
Starting point is 01:51:26 Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.
Starting point is 01:51:50 Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel. and friends on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From
Starting point is 01:52:25 viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slice Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. The French Open is one of the toughest in tennis. And I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris, every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on Clay.
Starting point is 01:53:06 Jenchian win. I mean, she went down at three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me. And she likes Clay. Listen, Lina Rabakina is arguably the best player in the world right now, and I actually can win on any surface because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports.
Starting point is 01:53:37 Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with sorts. many incredible guests. I'm talking. Trip Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross,
Starting point is 01:54:12 because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth? Are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Keer Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose
Starting point is 01:54:30 on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free iHeartRadio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. If I were told you that Indiana six months ago was favored by 14 and a half points going into this game against Penn State, what do you think the circumstances would have been? plane crash or something nuclear bomb that's pretty crazy how that played out yeah i took penn
Starting point is 01:55:02 state oh doesn't feel good tell you that but if there is indiana's kind of banged up they have an NFL receiver sarat he's dealing with a hamstring injury their their guard who's a stud drew evans is going to miss their stud linebacker aiding fisher he's banged up i think he'll go but we'll see pen state i mean this kid grown Duncanmeyer, who hasn't looked good, the backup quarterback. But have you ever seen anyone walk into a worse situation? He had to start at Iowa, who has a top 5D, and then at Ohio State, who has the best defense in the country.
Starting point is 01:55:37 On the road, that was your first two starts, it's a freshman. So I would have met, he looked a little better last week, like just when I say better, like more poised and confident in the pocket. He's going to improve with more reps. I imagine he has to look even better this week, especially at home, right? Just not having to go on the road against top five D. defenses. Now, Indiana is also an excellent defense, probably top five defense as well. I just think it's too high. I mean, the market, this is what the market told us last week.
Starting point is 01:56:03 Penn State got that hard. It ended up being wrong. I'd have a chance at the end to get in the back door, but they got that hard right before a kick. It closed, that line closed, 16 and I have 17 at Ohio State. Now we're saying Indiana is a 15 point favorite at Penn State. Now you upgrade Indiana after last week for crushing Maryland. You downgrade Penn State for losing at Ohio State, but not drastically either way. So let's just rewind and say, okay, Ohio State's 17 point home favor over Penn State. Home field for both is around three and a half points. So that implies that Ohio State would have been minus 10 at Penn State last week. Well, and now Indiana's minus 15. the look-ahead line for the potential Big Ten championship
Starting point is 01:56:53 of Ohio State Indiana just opened, it's Ohio State minus three and a half. It's the market. It's not the most efficient market to look at in the market, but that's what I also have. I have Ohio State, I think they're like a little field goal plus better than Indiana. So, but now in one week we're saying Indiana,
Starting point is 01:57:10 based on just these two markets, I know it's not that simple, but is five points better than Ohio State based on those two lines? So I had to take over two touchdowns. I make it like 13. And I'm going to hold my nose. Signetti runs it up.
Starting point is 01:57:29 Maybe he does it. Maybe he wants to get Mendoza to the Heisman. But Penn State can at least run the ball a bit. They're past these still pretty good. They can't stop the run for whatever reasons. Maybe that just makes Indiana run it more, which is helpful for a bigger dog. I took the points. It's scary.
Starting point is 01:57:45 Well, Ohio State Indiana would, be the only power for conference championship, assuming Ohio State, you know, finally beats Michigan where two undefeated teams are playing each other, right? Yeah. Now, if I was to lose the Michigan again, then they're out of, they would lose all the tiebreakers. Like, well, obviously, Michigan, so Michigan's probably going to win out until that game. So Michigan would go. But also, if USC wins out and Michigan beats Ohio State, then Michigan would go if,
Starting point is 01:58:16 if Iowa wins out and because Iowa and USC play each other. How does Oregon not control their own destiny if they went out? They've only had the one loss, right? Oregon, I'll tell you right now. They might. Yeah, they should. Assuming Ohio State loses to Michigan, we're saying.
Starting point is 01:58:37 And again, I mean, college football, especially in this era, you can never assume anything. That's one thing we've learned because Oregon plays Iowa and their six and a half point favorite on the road, which, let's face it. I mean, that's a tough place to play. That's a pretty good game. And I told you this right before we press record.
Starting point is 01:58:54 I missed the Pac-12. I've moved on, but like, matches like this are cool. You know, this is Iowa playing games in the middle of November against random opponents in the Big Ten sometimes can be pretty boring. This gets me to watch Iowa. Yeah, I played Iowa here. Ferrence is five and one straight up against,
Starting point is 01:59:13 top 10 teams in November. This is a November team. They usually start peaking this time of the year. I'm still just not sold on Oregon yet. I think Oregon's a year away, and they're going to be super dangerous next year. I mean, they bring everybody back. This is a super young team, just full of young town. I mean, you can look at their, just look at their receding corps and Sadiq, the tight end. They are so young. They're so young across the board next year. They might be the favorite, although Ohio State's bringing everyone back to it. And you know, Oregon will be right there with Ohio State and like Texas to land the sweet transfer portal guys and Texas Tech. Yeah. It's scary that Ohio State also is like bringing everyone back next year, which is.
Starting point is 01:59:55 Well, they're just, they're now a save and retired. They're going nowhere. They're just the power. I feel like. And it's crazy to think Jeremiah Smith can't go to the NFL draft this year. But so I did play Iowa. Like I'm just not a believer yet in Oregon. So everyone said, Oregon, they're here when they won at Penn State, but we've seen that there was more to do with Penn State. You could even argue Oregon only scoring 17 points in regulation and almost losing that game. I mean, this is a Penn State team that's lost six in a row. They lost their home than Northwestern. They lost the UCLA. They got, you know, just trucked by Ohio State. This is, Penn State is not a very good football team this year. Took Oregon to overtime.
Starting point is 02:00:38 What is Oregon done other than that? Like, they blew out Rutgers who has the worst power for defense. But besides it. They were up 17 to 3 late in the game. Yeah, but it would still, they weren't like carving them up. It was very like. Tough. It was, that place was rocking.
Starting point is 02:00:52 I mean, that was, I still give them credit for it, but it's nowhere close to what it was. The Penn State defense has been bad this year. It's, it's pretty shock. I mean, the game was, it was three, three at the half, I think. So Oregon hasn't really played anyone else. Both these teams played Indiana at home. Iowa had the ball with a chance to win late. Oregon did not, and they even got a pick six in that game.
Starting point is 02:01:20 Iowa's defense is legit. This is a top five defense. They don't give up any explosive plays. That's every year under Phil Parker. They're always top two. They make you work the ball down the field. I need to see this Oregon offense prove it to me against an elite defense. So I took the points here.
Starting point is 02:01:33 The Iowa offense is improving. They still don't have real weapons on the outside, but they can run the ball. They have an excellent offensive line. that's Oregon's weakness on defense. They're run defense. You can push them around a bit. So I think Iowa will be able to control the. It's going to look like this is the only way Iowa can win.
Starting point is 02:01:49 Iowa can't win this game, you know, 27, 24. But look at the conditions this game to be windy, rainy, cold, rocking stadium. They're going to control the ball. Grinowski, they're going to run him a lot. They're just going to run the ball, lean on their offensive line. Weather conditions favor them, slow down Oregon and their athletes. They're going to take away explosive plays. And then the biggest advantage of all, and if this is close, it'll probably decide the game.
Starting point is 02:02:20 Iowa special teams. They have the best special teams in the country once again every year. And they're excellent in every single phase, talking, the punting, the field goal kicking, the returning is excellent. And Oregon has some deficiencies on special teams. And that's how Iowa wins these games. And the total is now down to 40 because of the. weather. So if this game is like 13, 10, 17, 13 in the fourth quarter, how does Iowa usually win these games? They'll, though you'll want to pull your house because it'll be at the 48 on fourth
Starting point is 02:02:54 and two and Kirk will punt. One, if it's, if they're down 17, 13 with eight to go, fourth and two, mark my words at the 48 of Oregon's 48. Kirk will punt and more times than not, they'll pin, it'll be pinned at the one. And then they're either going to get better field position or they'll get like a punt return touchdown on the return punt or force of safety. Their field goal kicking is really good. That's up in all those hidden yards. So Oregon huge athletic advantage, like just talent.
Starting point is 02:03:29 Phil Parker, the defense quarterback, I would talk about this. He's like, they're fully funded. They have much more funding than us this week. So landing while his guy is ready to look like he's, he did a bunch of, cocaine before the game. I'll be on the sidelines going crazy. But I took the points. I think it'll be low scoring, points at a premium. Special teams could be the difference. I think I will be able to run the ball enough to stay in this. And I think this is like a 20 to 17 type game. Kyle Shanahan and Matt LaFlor just fell out of their chair when you said that you can win games
Starting point is 02:03:59 because of special teams. Yes. It's amazing what happens when you focus on those units. And obviously, Ference has learned that a long time ago from Belichick, but way back in the day, and it's a point of difference, you know? Yeah, especially for a team that doesn't have as much, they don't have the raw talent. So, like, you have to find other ways. Defense special teams, they got to dominate on that because they're never going to be great on offense,
Starting point is 02:04:19 besides maybe a running back, right, or tight ends. And having the elite special teams plays into all that other stuff, like elite defense, rushing attack, conservative offense, like field goals, field position, all that ties into each other. And that's how they're able to kind of overperform and why they've been so good as an underdog. But really fascinating game,
Starting point is 02:04:38 because Oregon, it's like if they lose this game, resume starts to get dicey because your best win is Penn State all the sudden. And you have two losses. I mean, at Penn State's, I'm going to go to a bowl. You have two losses, and you still have Washington and USC on the schedule. So Oregon, I think, is very high risk for missing the plow. I was pretty dialed into USC Nebraska. Like, because USC goes to Oregon, right?
Starting point is 02:05:18 I just, once he broke his leg, I mean, I gave that kid a lot of credit. I mean, he was walking around on the sideline with a broken leg. I just assumed, like, it was a bad, like, ankle roll or something. So he's, but it just, USC was 14 to 6. Yeah, they probably were. missed that field goal and then they drive and score and then they get the two and then it's tied they were in trouble yeah they can't travel i mean it's insane under riley um well tough in the big 10 to travel it's and this is you know iowa nebraska like you do have to have a tough physical person that's where organs fit right in like we're tough we're physical right so we're not it doesn't quite look the same with usc i can imagine some of the former like pete carroll's guys watching their squad like what is why aren't we more physical how is this we're
Starting point is 02:06:04 just a kind of a run and gun offense. It's just, and this is the Lincoln Riley thing. I mean, this goes back to Oklahoma. I do believe philosophically, like, why does Dan Lannning have physical teams? Well, who the fuck did he learn under? You know, it's like how you're taught and how you recruit. Like, I just think Lincoln in a perfect world would have like seven Mackay Lemons. And obviously he would like a better quarterback and a good running back, but he cares
Starting point is 02:06:27 about offense. Like his defense, you go back to Oklahoma, their offenses were incredible. I mean, it literally could. He has a He has a Heist winner. every year. It wasn't that much different. I mean, some of those peak Baker teams, like, offensively weren't that much different like man for man than like Joe Burroughs team. I mean, they were, they had NFL studs at every position. You could argue they were, obviously, Burrow had better wide receivers, but they had tight ends, the running backs.
Starting point is 02:06:50 I mean, it was like, it was crazy. So I, I think the Lincoln thing, he is kind of what he is. I think he'd be much better suited for like the Big 12, the way he wants to play. It's funny you say that. And in regards to Oregon, I do think they're much more likely to get picked off at Washington in the finale, then lose it home to USC. USC needs to get their backs back, too, so they can run the ball. That's how Lincoln Riley offense always starts. And that's how they would have been able to run all over Nebraska if they were healthy in the backfield.
Starting point is 02:07:18 But this offseason, whoever Texas Tech wants in the transfer portal of defensive line, USC should just offer more money and get those guys. Well, it's funny you mentioned Texas Tech because there's now, there's been like some rumors out there that Riley might go to Texas Tech in the future. What would happen to Joey McGuire? I'd be out. I don't know. I will say for Riley, he would fit there. I just could have just been message board nonsense. I was just reading. No, but is Joey McGuire, is that like, is Joey McGuire not as good as Lincoln Riley in 2025? Is there a big difference between the two?
Starting point is 02:07:48 I don't know enough about Joey McGuire. I don't think so. I think Riley's a better coach. Like, now McGuire, McGuire has had like, I mean, he has the roster that just like can't lose this year. There's been some questions in Lubbock about him. Now, he made two outstanding coordinator or higher. So he's got good coordinators this year too. Was it like former like, is it kind of like Hugh Frizy, right? Like a high school guy worked his way up. But I will
Starting point is 02:08:12 say Riley, but yeah, he would fit there. And then also in the Big 12, you don't have to travel two time zones. No. The furthest you travel from Lubbock would be to Utah and then West Virginia. So you're just going from central to eastern. And obviously his teams just can't travel two time zones. A lot of Kansas, Kansas states,
Starting point is 02:08:31 Iowa states, a little way easier. And it's more finesse. It's more of a finesse conference. Although with Texas Tech, if you haven't watched Texas Tech the show, I do think that they're a legit, they're a legit big 12 team that can make a run. So you like him this week against BYU? I do. The number is kind of rich, but at 10 or better, that's the side of way.
Starting point is 02:08:53 I mean, this BYU team's been super fortunate. I think the difference in this game will be Texas Tech's defensive line. like the Texas Tech defensive line is like I'm taking the Texas Tech defensive line over Georgia's by far, Alabama's by far. This year those teams, they don't have your typical Georgia and Alabama defensive lines. Texas Tech has your typical top five team defensive line and they can dominate the game. And BYU has been very, very fortunate. I mean, against Utah, Utah, they out gained them by 150 yards. They kept going down to the red zone and turning it over on downs.
Starting point is 02:09:26 against Arizona. They were down 10 late, one in double overtime. Got a fortunate fumble. Against Iowa State, it was five-nothing turnover advantage. They were about to get blown out of that game. Little smoke and mirrors with the UYU team. Tough place to play.
Starting point is 02:09:41 Baron Morton's back, a quarterback for Tech. So, yeah, I think Tech gets it done, but it's not a discount. The last one I'll mention quickly. Cardinals in the NFL, I do have to get a word in for the Carls. I think they're the most underrated team in the NFL right now. I had them against the Cowboys.
Starting point is 02:09:56 I'm going to keep betting them. Their defense is legit. And they went into Dallas, completely shut them down. They're now healthy with Garrett Williams, Will Johnson at corner. Walter Nolan, their first round traffic, made his debut. He looked fantastic. They're perfectly designed to shut down the Seattle offense, which is excellent, which is arguably the best in the NFL right now.
Starting point is 02:10:16 Donald is shredding the blitz. The Cardinals don't blips. He's shredding off play action. They go heavy, play action. JSN has been incredible. The Cardinals are built to stop it. They'll go with their three high safety looks. They don't allow any explosive plays.
Starting point is 02:10:26 think about in the first meeting. The Cardinals held them the 20 points. No one didn't play. Johnson didn't play. Williams, their whole secondary was out. They did the best job of any team this year on Seattle. I think they can keep that offense in check enough. And the Cardinals' offense, you can't argue this, is better with Percette.
Starting point is 02:10:47 And Murray has been dreadful against Seattle. McDonald owns him. I mean, in three meetings, he has 14 sacks and six interceptions. over the past two years, six yards per attempt. He's been dreadful. Brissette, lowest turnover-worthy throw rate of any quarterback this year. He's not taking sacks. He's not taking the killer negative plays.
Starting point is 02:11:06 And the whole offense looks better. Harrison's involved. They're using play action more. And like the run game's even better even though they don't have any backs. So I think the cardals be feisty. This is still a team that could easily be six and two. They haven't lost to anybody by more than four all year. I like them six and a half.
Starting point is 02:11:22 Wait to see if a seven pops. If it's a seven comes, which I think it probably will at some point. even better. I think the game's close. I think it's a good matchup for the Cardinals. I think it'll be a really competitive game. You know who jumped off the screen that Monday night game with Josh Sweat. It's like, I wonder how he's been trying to search him for pass freshman.
Starting point is 02:11:38 I mean, that guy would look like T.J. Watt or something coming off the edge. Yeah, they can, especially now no one gives them juice. Like, they can get pressure. They don't have the blitz. And they make teams work down the field. And you saw that in Dallas. Like, that's a Dallas offense that was shredding everyone at home for years. And they didn't have an offensive touchdown until the fourth quarter.
Starting point is 02:12:00 Was it Walter Nolan one of the guys when Jimbo Fisher, when NIL first started? They gave like all that money to a bunch of guys. And he was one of the big money guys at A&M. Yeah, then he went to Ole Miss and he was dominated. I mean, he was dominated. I'm dominating every week for that defense. No one could block him. And last week he had what a sack, three tackles, two batted passes, two tackles for loss.
Starting point is 02:12:26 in his first start again in Dallas. Well, a defensive line is unstoppable if you have good edge pressure and then a dominant interior guy. There's no way to, you know, a lot of teams have one or the other. And this is where Philly, like last year, they had both. They had good edge pressure and they had the dominant inside pass rusher. So when you are dropping back on third and eight, and it's like, I got a defensive tackle that can smoke a guard or a center. And then I got edge guys that can get off the edge. And I don't have to blitz.
Starting point is 02:12:52 I'm in trouble, right? And that's where he. That's, I mean, I really think, it does look like Ernest Jones is back at practice for Seattle, which is big because they don't have linebacker depth. But that's why Seattle's a legit. I think Seattle's a legit, Super Bowl contender.
Starting point is 02:13:11 I know you've been on board as long as anybody. Got a five to one to win the division. And like they, Donald playing like this and like Kubiak and this offense, they're unique too. Like they go heavy. They can't really run the ball efficient. But it doesn't matter.
Starting point is 02:13:27 They use that to set up play action. And teams are taking the bait. And they're like, and then it's, JSN is unguarable. Now you're adding Shaheed is another deep shot. He's still Horton. You know, these tight ends are all good. And Darnold is just has full command of this offense.
Starting point is 02:13:43 But it's a lot of it is easy button stuff. Like off the play action, there are guys running wide open. But the other, like you're marrying that with the defense, which is one of the best in the NFL at getting, pressure without blitzing. And if you can do that, it gives you so much more flexibility. And like you got guys like Leonard Williams, Byron Murphy, DeMarcus Lawrence that can get after the pass without blitzing. And then this secondary, and then you're going to have McDonald's
Starting point is 02:14:11 call on the defense, confusing opposing quarterbacks. But they have it all. And I do think that, like, if I had to take one team right now, it would still be the Packers. But the gap, there's no truly like this team is going to run through the NFC. And this is another reason why every game in the NFC is so important. We talk about that Eagles Packers game. If the Packers don't win the division, depending on how things shake out, like you could be on the road against Seattle or the Rams in the first week, in Wild Car weekend.
Starting point is 02:14:52 You're a dog week one in the playoffs. Like, that's miserable. But if you get a one CD out of buy and then a home game in Lambo. But, like, this is a different NFC than years past. Like, on the road at Seattle or the Rams this year, I mean, those are two teams that could easily when the confidence. The NFC is going to be a heavyweight fight until the end. Totally. Okay, Stucky.
Starting point is 02:15:16 Let's enjoy the week. Appreciate your time. And talk to you soon, buddy. Absolutely. Have a good one. The volume. Hey guys, it's us The Jonas Brothers, I'm Joe
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