The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 & Out - Brandon Aiyuk asks for a trade, Caleb signs, who has the most pressure

Episode Date: July 17, 2024

John reacts to the news that Brandon Aiyuk has officially asked to be traded out of SF and he gives his take on if he thinks Aiyuk will eventually get traded. Later, he dives into Caleb Williams signing his rookie contract and how the NFL has changed when it comes to rookie deals, and finally John tells you which teams he thinks has the most pressure in each division. 11:40 - Brandon Aiyuk news 24:58 - Caleb Williams signs 32:30 - Teams with the most pressure 33:53 - The East 38:41 - The South 42:07 - The North 49:04 - The West Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest. Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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And I was taking a little swim. I did a couple laps would be strong, but I kind of went from this one pier to this one dock and I did each way twice. Try to get a little workout in. And I get back to this bench where my phone, my shoes, my hat and my stuff is a towel. And I look at my phone.

And I see a bunch of updates that Brandon Ayuk has demanded a trade from the 49ers. If you're not going to pay me, trade me. So I said, okay, we got the open of the show. We'll discuss that situation, which obviously we've discussed a lot over the last, I don't know, several months. So we'll try to find some solution to this if there ever becomes one. Caleb Williams signed his rookie contract. He is now, obviously, Iber Fluse, I think, announced before their rookie minicamp, he was their starting quarterback.

But he's now officially under contract and we can move forward. I think Roma Dunesay did that yesterday. so they're off and running. And I think it brings the light something that happened in the 2011 CBA agreement that has just made a much more seamless transition for front offices, for coaches, and for it's really benefited veteran players. Because what happened in the 2000s with the rookies, I just want to dive into that. And then we're going to go over a little bit of, I picked a team from each division that has the most. most pressure on them heading into training camp. It doesn't mean the best team.

I just meant the team that has the most pressure on them heading into training camp and heading into the season. So we'll kind of go by division by division. A little fun little exercise. Obviously things change as injuries happen, but we're probably, you know, you're seeing a lot of teams and the rookies report. I would imagine by the middle to end of next week, most teams, the 24th, 23rd, 22nd. veterans will have reported as well, and then by the end of the next week, every team will be on the field.

Now, most teams, it feels like, their veterans report, their veterans report sometime next week. The pads come on late July, you know, somewhere between the 29th, 30th, 31st. So we're still a little way from real football being played on the field at practice, but we're making progress. We're making progress. Season's not too far away. And, yeah, so we'll have a fun time. today on this podcast and we'll get another football podcast out tomorrow

maybe do a big mail bag or something because still you know we really hit the ground running over the next starting middle of next week and then it's just full go till the end of the season because it just gets wild you know things you never know what's coming

you get a brand and Iyuk story it feels like every day so yeah you guys know the drill subscribe to the podcast if you haven't subscribed to the YouTube channel which is obviously going to have a lot of content this fall with college and pro. I love college football. Other than that, I think

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He's still on the 49ers. And he's a pretty key piece to what they do offensively. Now, we've talked at Nauseum about Brandon Ayuk, his fit in an offense that tends to be very run heavy, the way they utilize a wide receiver. He is never going to get the production that some of the guys that have been paid highly. He's an excellent player. is a winning player. You want him on your team. But because of some of the 49ers contractual, you know, constraints and situations, and mainly because they have another high-priced wide receiver,

and listen, if they could choose from scratch, they had to pay one guy or the other two-day, they would pick Iyuk over Debo. But Debo's already under contract. And part of the reason they'd have no problem getting rid of Debo if that was the scenario they were in, which they're not, is because they've added Christian McCaffrey since they paid Debo Samuel. And we all know Christian McCaffrey's the best running back in the league and one of the most versatile chess pieces going in all of football. But I think Brandon Ayuk is struggling with the fact that he doesn't have that much leverage.

You know, this is not the NBA. When you demand a trade, they just capitulate and you just end up on another team. And even in the NBA, when these guys are demanding trades, and ultimately the team just doesn't want to deal with it, they are still getting a buck 50 on the dollar. I mean, some of these trades recently, I mean, what Miles Bridges went for, or McKell Bridges, whatever the bridges that went to the Knicks

and the amount that the Knicks had to give up to the Nets, and James Harden and Kevin Duran, I mean, these trades have been pretty crazy. So I think there's a pretty easy solution here. One of the bridges, out of a scumbag, the other one on the Nix is high character guy. But if I'm the 49ers, they have a long history of being very tough in contract negotiations.

This isn't just like, Max for you, Max for you, here's money for you. That's not the way they've operated. Last week, Nick Bosa, who, you know, I would say Trent Williams is their best pure player. And Nick would be 1B, even coming off what he would consider a down season, had to battle for every penny. Now, he got a lot. He got a lot, but he missed all of training camp and held out. And that's Nick Bosa.

who is more important to the 49ers than Brandon Ayyuk. So to think that the 49ers are just going to capitulate and just give him exactly what he wants, that's not how they've ever operated. And I think here's what the 49ers, I got a little solution. What the 49ers said, listen, Brandon, this is our final offer.

Whatever that is. They offered him 26. Maybe they bump it up 27. We will allow you to talk to other teams and see if you can get more money than that. But we're not just giving you away. there's a floor to this. And the floor for us even entertaining trading you,

because you're under contract with us, and we plan on winning the Super Bowl this year, is we'd need a one and a two. So if you could get another team to give us a first round pick and a second round pick, because again, someone's going to have to overpay for you for us to consider trading you, because that's not really the way this industry works.

We just give players away. then we can have a conversation. But how is that ever going to happen? Because look at Brandon Ayuk. He was the 27th pick in the draft. So I thought that they entertained trading him last year. They won't admit it, but I got some birdies out there. Those picks that Zay Flowers went, I forget, Jordan Addison,

that little stretch in the early 20s with the Ravens, with the Giants. I think they might have pulled the trigger last year. But guess what those teams decided? Why don't we just take a player who's going to be really good and under contract for a much smaller number? Debo Samuel was a second round pick. For three years, he cost them nothing. And all these teams now, drafting these wide receivers

and we just saw a ton go in the top, whatever, 50 picks of the last draft, they're incredible value. If Malik neighbors or Marvin Harrison or Roma Dunzee or any of the guys that just got drafted relatively high become high-level pro-bowl players, they immediately become some of the best values in the league because we know the going rate for high-end wide receivers is 27 and above. To me, Justin Jefferson's an outlier because he's the best wide receiver in the league. But that's where it makes it really difficult.

Brandon, he was like, I demand a trade. Well, to who? For what? Devo Samuel did it too and the Jets were kind of interested. And you know what the Jets said? We'll give you pick 10, but we also want like your second round pick. And I'm like,

what? We're not doing that. They're running a business. And I can imagine Kyle and John are kind of exhausted with this. It's their job. But let's face it. Wide receivers can just be somewhat of a pain

when it comes to this stuff. They really are. I mean, he demanded a meeting. Now he's demanded a trade. It's like, bro, you ain't Jerry Rice or Randy Moss. We love you. We've won a lot with you, and we plan on winning a lot more with you. And we plan on paying you.

But like, what are we doing here? What do you think the end game is here? Who out there is willing to pay and trade for you? Who is? Because I would argue, even if they got a first round pick alone. Let's say the Steelers. Okay, we'll give them $30 million a year. Here's our first round pick?

They would trade a first round pick for him. him. But if you're the 49ers, I'm getting a first round pick for a guy that was a first round pick and has lived up to the billing. What helps me in 2024 during the season? I have a hole. And today it was, uh, came out on the waiver wire that Ricky Pearsall, the guy they drafted in the first round from Florida, the wide receivers, looks like he's going to be a pretty good player, is on the non-football injury list. And at the time, of recording this, I have no clue why or what happened. But it's pretty clear. When you get put on that list, it's not like he got injured training. He got injured doing something. And eventually,

and maybe by the time you're listening, one of, you know, rap sheet up Schaefter, put it out, or maybe Kyle and John are talking in the next couple days. And it gets announced what happened to him. But that's not ideal. It's not ideal at all. Maybe it's nothing. Maybe it's something. but this just shows you, I'll never forget when I was in the NFL, a coach told me that you can never get too arrogant with a position group because a position group of strength, like you can have a great offensive line, right? All five guys, you've got three pro bowlers, another two guys, solid starters. Well, then your right tackle, terraces ACL, and your left guard breaks his arm.

And all of a sudden, the sixth and seventh offensive linemen on your team are forced to play, you have to sign guys off the street to fill in the practice squad and the backup spots, And all of a sudden, you're reeling a little bit. This is a sport where guys get injured a lot. Which is why, listen, I understand where Brandon Ayuk is coming from. I really do. Because it's so easy for any human being, for all of us to go, it's just business. Well, it's also personal because it's your business.

And in Ayukes, the industry he's in, his businesses himself, right? Honestly, I can relate to that at a lower number rate. but like I take the podcast very personal and when we've ever discussed business like I take it pretty seriously and it can become it never has in my situation but it happens a lot with professional athletes that they get very emotional over so I understand where he's coming from but I think he feels and this is why I think he's gotten aggressive and he's one he's had a lot of time on his hands just scroll on social media like put down the phone everything's going to be all right look at the core guys on your team.

They have all been paid. Every core guy on the team has been paid. All of them, right? Nick Bosa, Trent Williams, Debo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, Fred Warner. There is not a good player on the 49ers who hasn't been taken care of. But the 49ers don't just look at your agent and go,

we're just going to bend over and you just give it to me as hard as you want. We'll just sign whatever number you throw out. It's not the way they've ever operated. Tim Kawakami, my good buddy, who's been covering Barry sports for, I mean, feels like forever, is very tied in. And he talks about this over and over. Like, this is, this is Parag. You know, he's one of the tougher negotiators in the NFL. It doesn't mean, like, since I've been following the 49ers, all their good players get paid.

All of them. And a lot of them have to battle a little bit. And that's what Brandon Ayuk is doing. And I think specifically this battle, because of the complications of the offense, given their a run-heavy team, giving that he's never going to be a 110 catch guy in this offense. That is not going to happen. That doesn't mean they don't need them. That doesn't mean they don't want them.

But when you're breaking down the pie chart of how you pay someone, it complicates the situation. It's easy to go, listen, we have to give Nick Bosa a historic amount of money. Because ideally, every single year, that guy is going to give you 15 plus sacks and play his balls off against the run and be widely considered one of the best, edge rushers and defensive linemen in general in the league. Brandon Needs a really good player. Is there any human being, if they did a list of the top five wide receivers, they'd list him? The top 10 wide receivers, maybe he sneaks in, depending on who you're talking to. But that's the problem with this whole situation.

But to think that they're just going to capitulate to his demands and just trade him away for not that much. because I do have a hard time seeing a team trade a lot. And for the 49ers, I would need a lot. If I were to trade him, which I would hesitate to do, I would not do it. But if it was clear, like he's never signing my contract and he's going to be a pain, which he hasn't really been. Though a couple years ago, him and Kyle had this weird thing going on early in the season. But we've seen him, he's one of the best run blockers in the league.

He's an excellent route runner. But anytime you get these situations, like, we're human being. we all are. Coaches go through it when they have contractual situations, players go through it, which we're seeing with Iyuk. Now, he's handled it. You know, Debo held in. Bosa held out. And I would imagine Iyuk is holding out. But I have a hard time seeing them trade the guy without getting just enough. I mean, last time they traded a really, really good player, DeForest Buckner, they got back the 13th pick in the draft. Now, they fucked up that pick, but they got the back of the 13th pick in the draft.

And it was right before the draft. So they were whatever, however they were going to use that asset, which again, they screwed up. They should have just drafted Tristan Worf's instead of trading back one. They got cute and they took a guy who's no longer on their team and not a very good player in Jambon Kinlaw. But even if I got, obviously, if you got offered like two ones, it'd be pretty difficult not to accept. But the problem would be then you wouldn't have the guy on your team. And the 49ers are probably, there's only one team in the league that's championship or bust now and that's the Chiefs,

but they are easily in the short list of two or three teams of not getting to the Super Bowl and probably not winning it this year. It's going to feel like a big disappointment. You could argue it was just them and the Ravens because of how close they've been. Maybe you could throw the Eagles in there. If Joe Burl is healthy, maybe the Bengals, but they're in that. Like, it's bus mode. You say the bills, but like, is it really?

Like, if they made it the AFC championship game, that would feel like a pretty good accomplishment. So this situation, it's not like you're going to open your phone tomorrow. going to be resolved. Like, buckle up. Maybe this is his last-ditch effort to try to, like, spook them. They're not going to get spooked. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my

brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for Raw. unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Cliverts Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger.

So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defining the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what.

He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. knows. Without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't

have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nass would get that

thing. That man, hell get the flying. He running up the court, licking his fingers, why he got the ball. Like, after you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Oh, yeah. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. So you have an upcoming fantasy football draft? Well, then you need to check out the fantasy pros draft wizard.

When you sink your fantasy football league with Draft Wizard, you'll get an instant report that shows you how the rest of your league drafts. You'll see who overdrafts rooks. in early rounds, who's going to be the person to take that first QB off the board, and which manager is going to always reach for that hometown player every single time. And then you can take those patterns directly into the draft simulator and make your mock draft feel like the real thing. When your real draft comes around, you're going to be ready, and the draft assistant will be there for you to give you live pick-by-pick insights

and expert recommendations of who to draft and when to draft them. You can see all of this and more at fantasypros.com slash volume today. Caleb Williams. He signed his contract today. And I don't think the league gets enough credit for fixing the disaster that was rookie contracts in the 2000s. Like when I was in college, I went to college, 03 to 08, you know, about four and a half years, took a quarter off. But the rookie contracts, I remember by the end with the Staffords and the Sews and Matt Ryan and that Jamarcus Rutgers. historically, they were signing these historic contracts, that they were immediately, depending

on who was on your team, probably the highest paid guy on their football team. Jamarcus Russell held out for it into the season. Crabtree, I'm pretty sure did the same. And those are just two that come to mind. Guys would hold out, the contracts were all out of whack. It was not sustainable. And honestly, it wasn't fair to the veteran players in the league. It was wacky.

And in 2011 during the lockout, they changed that. And it's probably one of the best business decisions they've made in a long time because your contract's slotted. There's nothing to argue about. If you're the first picking the draft, this is your number. Maybe we could argue over a word here or a word there in the contract, but the numbers are the number. It's why whenever we get these weird holdouts, a week into training camp, people are going on here. Like, you're not getting any more money. Maybe you argue what date the check comes in, but it's pretty set now.

And I think it's smoothed the league a lot. And I think it's benefited. Like in 2000, let's say this was 2007. If you're Caleb Williams, I mean, this would have been a pretty nasty contract negotiation. I would have wanted a lot of money. I mean a lot of money. And typically those played into training camp because even at the time you were talking like 50, 60 million dollar contracts.

This is 15, 18 years ago. So this has created a much more seamless transition. And I think it really, I mean, now a lot of the times, how often do you see within a couple weeks after the draft during OTAs just second and first rounder signing? It's like, God, this is just way easier. And I'm glad this has taken place. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations.

with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clivert Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be.

Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defining the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game.

His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. knows. Without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to

really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nass would get that thing. That man, hell get the flying.

He running up the court, licking his fingers, why he got the ball. Like, after you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. I've been thinking about this for a while. I picked a team in each division that I thought easily has the most pressure on them. So we're going to work the AFC, then the NFC. will go east, south, northwest.

And I just think that there's nothing like the NFL. There's nothing like the amount of pressure. And honestly, I mean, I easily could have picked probably two teams per division. The expectations are so sky high. The ramifications of failure are firings immediately. Players cut. That's the other thing. forever it was like you can't blame the players right that's always been an old adage in sports

because they were always making way more than the coaches which is still true but we see all the time these high price players when they fail they just get cut and teams eat it so and partly because of the explosion in the league with the salary cap it's just made it a little bit of the wild wild west all these teams are rich some of the owners are richer than others but even the poorest owner at this point has a lot of money. So we'll start with the AFCs. This one's a BP fastball. It's the New York Jets.

They are going to be under a ton of scrutiny from the moment that Monday night football kicks off. Because anything less than a playoff berth, and I think they have the longest running playoff birth streak in the NFL. And if I'm not mistaken, it might be in all of professional team sports. everyone's fired. It's all over. And this Aaron Rogers experiment was a complete disaster. Some of it, not totally their fault that no one knew he was going to tear his Achilles.

But it was evident pretty early. Like this offensive line was a problem, given why they revamped at this offseason. But to me, some people would say the bills, like, they're going to win the division again. They'll be in the playoffs. Even if they lose in the second round, like, I don't know. You're going to fire a guy that's won the division five straight times. The Dolphins, even if they take a step back this year, they made the playoffs two years in a row. And I think people forget what the dolphins and the bills look like for a large period of time in my lifetime.

Once Jim Kelly and Dan Marino called her quits, it hasn't been pretty. And the Patriots, even if they suck, everyone kind of expects that. But you could argue in just the terms of the pressure rankings, it's hard to ever get above this next team. but if you wanted to put the Jets at one in the entire league, I would hear you. Partly because of the fame and the resume of Aaron, what they've done to build everything around him in terms of the coordinator, in terms of signing his friends last year, in terms of how he kind of dictates the terms of their organization.

Is Robert Sala any good? I root for my bald brother, but holy shit, it's been ugly. see in the east every team's under a lot of pressure obviously Washington because they got a new coach and a new GM and a rookie quarterback to me are going to get a little bit of a soft landing zone this year

the Eagles that thing's a pressure cooker but I said this the other day when I was talking about you know the Sequewan Barkley situation I have a hard time seeing them not win 9 10 games I think it's borderline impossible given the talent on their roster. The Giants, you could say if they fail that their heads are going to be rolling.

I said the other day and, you know, comments, whatever. But the reason I think Joe Shane would get fired if his team sucks and Sequin Barkley has a good season is simply because if you watch that series, watch John Mara. John Mara keeps saying over and over, like, I don't like this. I don't know. I don't feel comfortable doing this. A new episode is supposed to come out, I think tonight, in the preview, it was like, I don't know if I can sleep at night with him on the Eagles. So, like the expectations for that team, like the Patriots, aren't very high.

To me, the Cowboys have Mike McCarthy, which is kind of unheard of on the last year of his contract, and Dak Prescott, which is definitely unheard of with the guy who's had success on the last year of his contract. Now, clearly before the start of the season, that could change with Dak. though I think if you've come this far, why not just write it out? And listen, if you write it out and it works, and if for the first time in 25 years they make the NFC championship game, that's a major success, right? That would mean more than likely you won a couple playoff games. Maybe they'd win the division. I have a hard time seeing them be the number one seed.

So if you win two playoff games at the NFC, even if you were to lose and Dak would have played poorly, I understand extending them and extending Mike. But if they win, you know, a lot of people are kind of down on them. I've supported them in terms of I never think they're going to suck as much as people think, because especially this year, they're just a well run for an office. They really are. I mean, they draft pretty well, and they definitely develop pretty well. And Mike's got some flaws, but he's clearly not a bad coach. Like, kind of knows what he's doing.

Definitely have some holes. It's like they don't have a running back. Have you watched Mike McCarthy coach over the years? Not really big on hand in the ball off. But, yeah, I mean, if they were to miss the play, Hell, if they were to do what they did last year, have a really successful season and get beat in the first round, I think there's a decent chance, Dak and McCarthy are not the quarterback and the head coach of the team at the start of the 2025 season. So whenever you're changing a guy, especially two guys, you've had a lot of success with, three straight years, 12 wins.

If I tell you right now that those two guys are gone, like that clearly would be one of the two of the biggest stories of the off season. If Mike's fired, that means the Cowboys are looking for a new head coach, which everyone would say Bill Belichick. and if they were just to let Dak Prescott hit free agency, what the hell would the Cowboys do at quarterback? Because we've seen them, you know, the pre-Toney Romo days,

post-Troa Akeman, it can get a little weird. AFC South. This is one of those situations where you give a guy $200 million guaranteed. The player ain't getting fired. So this is a big year for Trevor Lawrence. But even if he were to play,

as the kids say, mid, I don't think it matters much for him. Literally. I mean, he's kind of on scholarship for the next couple years. I do think Doug Peterson's coach a first job.

And I do think Trent Balki's GM and for his job. If they miss the playoffs with how much they just invested into this guy, just given a year previously,

they had won a home, they had won the division, they had won a playoff game. I think you could see a scenario where the Jags with, you know, Trevor Lawrence at quarterback are looking for a head coach

in a GM. And like, let's go around. Titans, they just have a new operation. The Texans, like even if they come back to Earth,

little bit. Those guys aren't going anywhere. And the Colts, like, I think they're pretty high on everybody. So even if they were to win less games they did last year, I don't think anything's changing. I think the pressure on the Jags, which is weird because no one really cares about the Jags, but just from the owner, if they miss the playoffs, I would expect the GM and the coach to be fired. The NFC South, this is a tough one because I easily could have put the Saints here because if the Saints miss the playoffs, I think Dennis Allen and Derek Carr would no longer be the coach

and the quarterback of the team. But it's hard for me to expect them to make the playoffs. Though I actually think, I haven't decided who I'm going to pick for that division. I think the easy one is Tampa. I told myself I would never pick the Saints again after I did it last year because of Dennis Allen. But now Derek with Kubiak,

they could be a sleeper, but I think this one's an easy one. It's the Falcons. given the quarterback dynamic of drafting penics with cousins coming off the injury, that's got a chance to get weird and weird fast. And if that thing gets weird, it's one of those teams that everyone's going to be talking about because of the quarterback dynamic with the eighth overall picks sitting behind cousins.

I saw Rahe Moore say this the other day. And listen, I love a good quote. I don't hate arrogance. You know, if you're going to say something crazy, it's kind of entertaining. He was essentially asked in an interview why his coaching staff was so big. And he basically answered because we plan on winning here. And when you win, people take your coaches. And we want to have coaches on the staff that are ready to fill in for those guys when they get hired.

Like, I'm sorry, like the confidence, like the bravado, like Rahim. Whenever I see him talk, like God, I kind of want to hang out. this guy. Pretty bold thing to say for a squad that has won seven games three years in a row. I think the Falcons internally think their team is like the Lions or the 49ers. I think deep down, they think like we're 11-12 win team. And I, fuck, I don't see it. I don't see it at all. I think this thing could come off the rails and quick. Now, maybe Cousins is awesome, but a 36-year-old guy coming off that injury, I don't. I don't know.

I mean, that's why everyone is kind of questioned Rogers. Like, that's a pretty major injury. And Rogers is in a different universe than cousins. So that team, man, they're going to be a talking point definitely early on in the season if things get weird. The AFC North, this one's hard because you can say the Ravens, given how close they've been, but Harbaugh-Lamar ain't going anywhere and their operation like pretty well entrenched. I want to say the Steelers because of their quarterback situation, but I've learned that lesson.

It is pointless to talk about Mike Tomlin's job security. It's pointless. It's pointless to go on these rants to be like, it's time for a change. It is just a healthy time for a change. Just look at each other and go like, not all divorces are knocked down dragouts. I saw it with Andy Reed, Jeffrey Lurie.

It was like, you know what? We'll just go our separate ways. I think you're a great owner. You think I'm a great coach. but this is no longer working. Like that's, that was my example. But Steelers just aren't going to do that. If you tell me Mike Tomlin, the over-under,

is he coaching the rest of the 2020s? I would say yes. I am no longer saying that because it's a pointless exercise to have when he's never going anywhere. Could say the Bengals, but I just think there's some unknown with Burrough. We'll have to see how healthy he is.

I think it has to be the Browns. I mean, they traded all their draft picks for the quarterback. And then they gave him historic amount of guaranteed money. And beside one half of football, he has objectively been a below average player. And a lot of people,

I did my top 10 list and I left out Stefansky. And I'll be honest, I just kind of forgot about him. And if I think I had to do it again, he definitely would be in the mix. I think Kevin Stavansky is a good coach. And clearly Andrew Barry, from the roster building standpoint,

their team is very, very talented. Like, they have, we saw last year, Blacko came in. They have really good players at a lot of different positions. But if this guy stinks, and for a lot of last year, in the previous year,

when he came back after the suspension, he's not that good. Is he the most reliable human being, right, on and off the field? I mean, now he's battling injuries, let alone everything that's, you know, followed him around since the Houston days.

I don't know, man. I just, Rabel is a consultant there. I just think, I don't know what happens. Like, how do you get rid of this guy that you're basically, you got on the books for $63 million guaranteed

or as cap hits the next three years this year, 25 and 26. But I do think there's a lot of pressure specifically on Deshawn Watson, which leds pressure on the Cleveland Browns. The NFC North. I think you throw Minnesota away because the Sam Darnold,

J.J. McCarthy situation, they're kind of going through a transitional period. I think the Packer guys, after last year, even if they were to take a step back, They haven't extended Jordan Love at the time of recording this, so they're not locked in stone with him forever, though a decent chance it could eventually happen here during training camp. But those guys aren't going anywhere.

You have the Lions. I mean, Dan Campbell just got to the NFC championship game for the first time with the organization of 30 plus years. I think it's the first time since like 1940-something. They won two playoff games in the same year. So Dan Campbell has done a fucking remarkable job. Those guys are, they just got contract extensions. It's got to be the Bears.

Because like I said, with the Jets, the Cowboys, the pressure, just the way it's nationally and locally talked about, you could make the argument. There is more hype around the Bears for a team that, you know, hasn't been in the playoff mix than any team in the league, than any team in the league. Because of Caleb, because of their roster, because some of their moves, and rightfully so. I mean, they're pretty intriguing team. Got some good defensive pieces. You add this guy that many consider a generational quarterback, and I think he has generational skills. You trade for Keenan Allen, a high-end winning player.

You had another top 10 pick. You draft another sweet wide receiver, so now you got DJ Moore, Rome and Keenan with this generational quarterback. You had DeAndre Swift. You're going, well, our offense last year at times was anemic, even if it is average sometimes, It's going to be way better than it was last year. And we were right in all these games.

So I said it from the beginning. I thought if you had any question marks on the coach, last year was the time to do it. But the Bears, I'm not comparing them to the Steelers this way, but the mom and pop way that they operate, they ideally never want to change. Like they're kind of living in the past.

Know some people that have worked there. But they didn't fire them. And I'm not even saying Iber Fluse is that bad. We're going to find out this year. but it was pretty risky when you had the chance to kind of reset and they stayed loyal to him. If they don't make the playoffs this year, I have a hard time seeing him survive. Now, you could make the argument if he goes nine and eight and they miss it and they show a lot of progress. But is he getting a contract extension?

They make him just coach on the last year of his contract. I think there's a ton of pressure on the Bears because if they won seven games, which I'm pretty sure they did last year, it would feel like one of the biggest disappointment. in the league given, and I've said this over and over, like I like Caleb Williams a lot. And I think if he can learn to play in the construct of an NFL offense while doing his ad lib ability, he's going to be a high-end quarterback in the league. But even if he becomes just a great player, like eventually becomes a consistent top five quarterback in the league, sometimes rookie years can be tough.

And I think sometimes when you see a year like CJ Stroud, we all just think, I was really easy. It's all these top guys. That's usually not the way it works. There's usually growing pains. There's usually problems. And let's face it, like, is there a team in the league that wouldn't take Domeco and Sloick being around a

quarterback, then Iber Fluse and who they hired? I guess they fired Getsy. They hired, was it Shane Waldron? Is their new offensive coordinator? It just could be tough. It really could. And you go through growing pains as a young player. Now, the argument for him is just like there are so many weapons.

How does he fail? There are some question marks with the Bears' offensive line. And last year he saw it at USC who had, it was an embarrassment for the program, an embarrassment for Lincoln Riley. I'm not comparing the Bears' offensive line to what he dealt with last year. But he was running for his life. And he's a guy that can run for his life and still make plays. But that is when you make mistakes.

So if they can protect them, there aren't really any excuses, is not to, I would say, win 10 games. And if you win 10 games and miss the playoffs, like, what are you going to do? But if, what if they win 8 and they miss the playoffs by a couple games, I think you'd start hearing Mike Vrable or someone like that. The AFC West, this was tough. Obviously, I mean, the Chiefs have internal pressure every year, but you went back-to-back Super Bowls and three and five years, like, shit,

you're, you make Clark on a lot of money. The Denver Broncos gave a coach $90 million. They let him cut Russell Wilson, but he does have a rookie quarterback this year. The Raiders, I think we all agree, how can they be good? They do not have a quarterback. So the expectations there aren't very high. Obviously, Jim Harbaugh is going to be the Chargers coach for a while.

He could win zero games this year, which would be insane, but let's just hypothetically say that happened. He ain't going to get fired. I do think, though, when you have a quarterback of this stature, and listen, you don't need to hear me phrase Justin Herbert, just YouTube, Jim Harbaugh, Justin Herbert. Listen to the way this guy talks about him. Obviously, they turned over the roster a little bit, but every time you coach a season with a quarterback in his prime, who's really, really talented, and you don't make the playoffs,

it's a really, really big disappointment. We talked about this on the mailbag problem. earlier this week or last week. I guess it would have been earlier this week about Philip Rivers. And I said, you know, his career actually was a big underachievement when you look at the totality of it

because of how talented he was. He had flaws. I'm not acting like he's Peyton Manning or Tom Brady or Aaron Rogers, but he was a really, really good player. But his organization let him down. It really did. I mean, they made him play for guys like Mike McCoy and Anthony Lynn. it's just that that can't happen.

It's why they went out and got Jim Harbaugh after Brandon Staley, which was an utter embarrassment as well. I just think that one, I think the Chargers is going to be pretty good, but I do think there's pressure on them. And you're just, anytime Jim Harbaugh's involved, like part of the reason we talked a lot about the Chargers the last couple of years was specifically about Brandon Staley and just the everything that surrounded that. And obviously I just, I had sniffed him out like a rat three years ago. I knew right away when all the media was doing a giant circle jerk about how great he was at press conferences. Like I was out. And I don't get him all right. Nailed that one.

But Jim Harbaugh, he just brings, he brings eyeballs. He brings expectation. And I think for the first time, like the chargers have had pressure over the last, whatever, half decade because of They've had a talented roster. But when they failed, we all went, well, no shit. They had Brandon Staley. They had Anthony Lynn. Like, these guys were going to win?

The trainer or the doctor poked Tyrant. They don't even know how to administer a, you know, a tortural shot. That's not the case with Jim Harbaugh. Even your floor with Jim Arbor. His disastrous last season in the NFL with the 49ers, he went 8 and 8. and I'm pretty sure he had like a bad finish. They lost like three of the last five games. I don't know, man.

I just think it's going to be the chiefs feel this because they got Andy Reid. I think the Broncos, that's what he brings. He brings a different level of expectation. And then the NFC West, to me, it's pretty simple. It's the 49ers. This might be their best chance to win the Super Bowl once they figure out this IEUK situation, especially if he doesn't get traded, which I don't expect him to get traded. You know, you can't keep these rosters together.

forever. They're going to have to pay the quarterback more than likely next year. You're not going to. They want to. They're going to. And you've seen it with the Chiefs. The team that won the Super Bowl in 2019 was not the team that won the Super Bowl this February. We saw the Patriots go through different iterations of their team. That's part of building in the NFL with the salary cap. You keep core players, ideally your quarterback, and then you shift guys around him, as time goes. And this 49er team is clearly really, really talented. And they have been knocking on the doorstep.

I mean, three years ago, if Kwaski Tart just catches the fucking ball, they're in the Super Bowl, right? Last year, they have a lead multiple times in the Super Bowl. And the team in 2006, some of these players are not going to be there. George Kettle's 30 years old. Trent Williams is 35 years old.

Debo Samuel, his contract starts getting kind of outrageous in terms of its cap implications. So you could see huge turnover over time. If I had to pick, Christian McCaffrey's a running back

and you just never know what those positions. So the time is now. The time was last year and the time is going to be this year. But if they can't get it done, you might have to go through one of those situations like it's usually not the Chiefs where you just change up the roster.

They just happen to have one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. I like Brock Purdy a lot and I like him a lot more than basically the majority of people to talk about football, but like he does need help. And I just think there's a ton of pressure on this team. They have had some devastating, devastating losses at the end of the season. Now, luckily for them, it's been the end of the season in the NFC championship game or the Super Bowl relative to some of these teams that can't even dream about getting that for. But Their expectations have clearly changed dramatically over the last three or four years. And I think that anything less than a Super Bowl victory with this roster, you could look back.

I saw what the Harbaugh teams. It was like, oh, this team's going to dominate for seven, eight years. And all of a sudden, like after two and a half, it was kind of over. Like Patrick Willis retires, Navarro Momin's leg snapped. You know, just if things change, Bam Davis just quits. I mean, things just change. look how different the Bill's roster is now than it was two and a half years ago. So the 49ers have all these guys under contract.

They're all high-end elite players. Some of them are going to the Hall of Fame. Trent's the first ballot Hall of Famer. I think Fred Warner's definitely on that trajectory. But Christian McAfrey's the best running back in the league. Kittles a high-end, tight end. Times now, man. I just don't really know what else to say.

It's just you got to get it done Like there's pressure on the jets and the cowboys Because like guys are going to get fired There's pressure on the Niners because like What else do we need? Right? I mean ideally we'd like like Lane Johnson At right tackle but fuck this isn't Madden 25

This is real life football Our roster how many teams in the league Can just look in the mirror and go They're better player for player than us It's a very short list If any list. Maybe the Ravens could have said it last year maybe, but they lost in the

NFC championship game. I think top to bottom, you could have argued that the Niners roster, in football, just because your roster is better, doesn't mean you win the game. But how many guys last year on the Chiefs and the 49ers have we just drafted the top 15 players? I'd have to go through the exercise, but I would imagine there'd be more Niners than Chiefs. Now, obviously the Chiefs have the edge of coach and they have the edge of quarterback, which is a big deal. But I think the 49ers feel pretty good about their situation at those two

spots. And it's hard to feel much better about all the other spots, right? Like, I would say the lions would be in a similar situation, but like, they're kind of a lions. You know, if they just were to, and I mean that, listen, I'm a lion's guy. Like, I love their operation. My point is, if the lions go back to the NFC championship game and lose, it's hard for me to call that a failure. It means this, this franchise, which has sucked my entire life, went to back-to-back NFC championship games. If the 40-9ers lost, in the NFC championship game, you'd go, how many times you're going to lose in the NFC championship game?

How many times it's going to happen? That'd be like their fourth or fifth NFC championship loss in the last 14 years. It'd be a fucking problem. If they got back to the Super Bowl and lost, you'd be like, that's the fourth Super Bowl you've lost since 2012. Eventually, are we going to get it done? Or we just kind of the early 90s bills of this league?

Because that's what they would kind of start to feel like. the early 90 bills of the 90s or the yeah i already said that you know what i mean uh if they just can't finally get over the hump the volume another podcast from some s nl late night comedy guy not quite unhumor me with robert smigel and friends me and hilarious guests from bob odin kirk to david letterman help make you funnier this week my guess s n l's mikey day and head writer streeter sidel help an acapella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever

you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm CJ Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was hiring. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after at game seven, Mark keep coming until he's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball.

So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This season on Dear Chelsea, with me, Chelsea Handler, we have some fantastic guests like Amelia Clark. When, like, young people come up to me and they want to be an actor or whatever, and my first thing is always, can you think of anything else that you can do? Rather be disappointed in. Do that. David O'Yelloo.

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