The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 & Out - Importance of getting to the Super Bowl, Philly NEEDS to win, Does KC have any pressure

Episode Date: January 24, 2025

John dives into Championship weekend in the NFL by talking about the importance for the players and coaches to get to the Super Bowl, and how just getting to the big game could set up a coach for a lo...ng-term deal. Next, John does a pressure test for each team this weekend by talking about who has the most pressure this weekend and who has the least amount of pressure. Later, John discusses the ratings dip for the National Championship Game, and the return of Fugazi Friday. Lastly, John is joined by Stuckey from the Action Network to give you the best bets for the upcoming NFL games.. 5:47 - The importance of getting to the Super Bowl 13:22 - Philly needs to win 14:33 - Pressure on the Bills 23:00 - Does KC have any pressure 25:33 - No pressure on Washington 32:43 - Other NFL news 37:47 - Fugazi Friday 38:58 - Stuckey Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest. Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas.
Starting point is 00:00:12 We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick.
Starting point is 00:00:30 you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.
Starting point is 00:00:45 This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the ice.
Starting point is 00:01:00 Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where SportsSlice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear.
Starting point is 00:01:28 Listen to SportsSlic on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slicalife-Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. I'm Michelle McPhee, and I've been unraveling the strangest criminal alliance I've ever reported on. A Mormon polygamous and an Armenian businessman. Multi-million dollar house, Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, a billion dollar fraud. But how long can this alliance last? Tell me what you're. know is somebody coming after me listen to kingdom of fraud on the iHeart radio app apple podcasts or
Starting point is 00:02:06 wherever you get your podcasts the volume what is going on everybody how are we doing hopefully everyone is having a great day beautiful morning great afternoon whenever you're listening to this podcast you can pick and choose we have a couple big games the nfc championship game Brady on the call in Philadelphia. Then we have a little thing called the AFC championship game, which kind of a big deal. Patrick Moehm's, Josh Allen. So what I thought we do is we do a little pressure rankings.
Starting point is 00:02:53 Obviously, there's a lot of pressure this weekend because this is why we play. This is why we watch sports. It's why we watch the National Football League, because it all comes down to these couple games. We only got three of them left, so we got to enjoy it. And then we'll hit on a couple other stories as well. It's Fugazi Friday.
Starting point is 00:03:09 I think I got a Fugazi going on of my life that makes me feel kind of weird, but we'll touch on that. Stucky joins us. We will dive into these two games from a gambling perspective. A lot going on when it comes to the commander, six-point dog at Philly, and the bills right now, as of Traff King's a one and a half point underdog in Kansas City, which has become now is the fourth time they've played in five years, so it's becoming quite the little rivalry of Josh and Patrick Mahomes.
Starting point is 00:03:38 We'll have a podcast tomorrow. bag, so look for that as well. If you listen on Collins' feed, make sure you subscribe to 3 and out. All this content is on YouTube as well, so subscribe to that. Don't miss a thing, because we're pumping out a lot, and let's enjoy the games.
Starting point is 00:03:55 But first, I do need to tell you about my friends, my partners, and the official ticketing app of this podcast Game Time. And if you want to go, if you have a chance to go, if one of your four teams are playing this weekend, you want to go to one of the games, Game Time has you covered. It's the
Starting point is 00:04:10 easiest place. You just put in the venue, you put in the game. If you want to go to a concert, you put in the artist, you put in the arena you want to see, comedy shows as well. Search by price points. They have incredible flash deals. Cannot recommend them enough. I've been using them for a long time, several years now. One of our loyal partners, because you guys have used them, had a great experience. I've used them, I don't know, over under 10 times in the last couple years, games, concerts. So take the guest work out of buying tickets with game time. Down the GameTime app, create an account, use the code. John, for $20 off your first purchase.
Starting point is 00:04:45 Terms apply, again, create an account and redeem the code. J-O-H-N for $20 off down on the game time out today, last minute, tick lowest prices guaranteed. I was thinking about this today. At this point in time in my life, I've become, besides football and golf, a very casual sports fan. Like, I don't watch really any regular season NBA. I don't think before the playoffs, I watched nine innings worth of Major League Baseball. Well, the 28-year-old John would think I'm on drugs, the amount I consumed from basically age 8, 9, 10 years old up until, I don't know, 5, 6 years ago.
Starting point is 00:05:22 But, you know, your life changes. I don't have kids yet. But I've just had to pick and choose what I consume. And obviously doing this for a living, you know, all my chips are in the middle of the table on football, college and definitely, obviously, the NFL. And, you know, golf, I'm just, that's probably the one sport that I'm just, that's probably the one sport that I'm I'm still a fan of, also gamble, and we do a little bit here on the podcast. But, you know, when it comes to basketball, March Madness now, and definitely baseball, I get into it if the games matter.
Starting point is 00:05:51 And typically that's when the playoffs start. And you just know there's a lot on the line. And there's something about the communal experience of watching games that really matter. And you know for not just the historical perspective of the sport, of the individual, player, but just on that individual day, when they're playing a game, like, there's a lot on the line. I mean, and the great part about the playoffs in pro sports, I mean, you're talking about all these guys now, you know, we got players making, in the NBA, some guys are making like $60 million.
Starting point is 00:06:28 Shoahe Otani just signed a contract for $750 million. You have a ton of, I mean, Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen signed a combined like $700 million worth of contracts, right? Jalen Hurt signed a $200 million contract. And Jadenos looks like he's poised if he just doesn't get injured that probably potentially one day signed the biggest contract of the history of the sport. Yet when it comes to the playoffs, every guy on the roster makes the same amount of money. And the playoffs isn't about money.
Starting point is 00:06:59 The playoffs is about like your legacy. You're standing in the sport, not just against your current peers, but historically the guys that played before you. and money has no factor in this. It's not about stats. We don't judge you. No one talks about Josh Allen's box score last week. Why?
Starting point is 00:07:20 It doesn't matter. He won the game. No turnovers. That's all that really mattered. But this week, like, you don't have to win the Super Bowl to kind of get remembered. You know, I mean, we talk still about, you get to the game. It's a really big deal. obviously winning the game puts you in a different stratosphere as a player or definitely as a coach,
Starting point is 00:07:45 but just making it to the event, we've seen in recent memory, like, changes the course of your career. Last year, a guy that was drafted in the last pick of the draft, Mr. Irrelevant, had a lead in the second half against Patrick Mahomes. And a huge part of this offseason with Brock Purdy negotiating against the 49ers was like, I was your starting quarterback when we went to the Super Bowl. Two years ago, Jalen Hertz, who is probably one of the more polarizing players currently in the NFL, out-duled Patrick Mahomes. Was just way better than him.
Starting point is 00:08:21 Like, that's just, it's not even subjective. Statistically, the eye test, he was just a better, it's like the best game he's ever played. We'll talk about that for the rest of our lives, especially if, like, Jayland never wins a Super Bowl. You'd be like, hey, remember that one time? He went toe to toe with Mahomes and actually played better than him. And his team lost because of a pass interference call. Three years ago, Joe Burrell. Now, I don't know if Joe Burroughs remembered as much for the Super Bowl,
Starting point is 00:08:49 but he was definitely remembered for, I don't know, the time he beat Patrick Mahomes in Arrowhead. So even if you lose the Super Bowl as a quarterback, it's a pretty big deal making the game. And as a coach, like, you can, get an extension just off losing that game, right? You get there. You're one of the last two teams standing. Remember when Zach Taylor was the head coach for the Bengals in the Super Bowl? Nick Siriani's got to be one of the most polarizing coaches I ever remember in football,
Starting point is 00:09:25 and especially with a guy with his record and his playoff record. Nick Siriani went to two Super Bowls in three years, that'd be pretty nuts. So I think when we look at these four teams, like, even when we'll get to Washington, playing with house money, whatever, like, you're still here. And this is an opportunity to make it to the Super Bowl. And Dan Campbell said this last year when they lost the 49ers, there's no guarantee we'll ever be back in this game. Look at what happened to them a year later.
Starting point is 00:09:56 Number one overall seed. All they had to do is win one game and they would have hosted. the game to attend the Super Bowl. NFC championship would have gone through Detroit. And they couldn't do it. And now they've got new coaches. They're still going to be good. But there's no guarantee that they'll ever be back in the NFC championship game.
Starting point is 00:10:15 It's the way sports work. You know, the only thing that we know right now that is pretty much guaranteed is that Patrick Mahomes, if he's a starting quarterback, he will be in the AFC championship game. But it'll take Tom Brady or Joe Burrow, maybe Josh Allen, to put up a fence for the entrance of the Kansas City Chiefs moving on. So I think number one
Starting point is 00:10:37 in terms of pressure rankings, I don't really even think it's close. And unlike some of these other teams, I don't think it's an individual player. It's the Eagles. And when you look at Philly, it's not Jalen Hertz. It's not Nick Siriani.
Starting point is 00:10:53 It's not Howie Roseman. It's not some of their other star players. the burden of the pressure falls on their backs. It's really just the organization. Losing this game, if you're Philadelphia, against a team that you haven't taken seriously in, I don't know, 20 plus years, who Stucky and I talked about this,
Starting point is 00:11:16 I think there are probably less than two players who would start for the Eagles, not named Jaden Daniels on the commanders. This has to be one of the worst rosters to make it to a conference championship game of the internet era. I mean, it is remarkable what Jane Daniels, Dan Quinn, and the organization has accomplished. But we all agree the Eagles have, if not the best roster,
Starting point is 00:11:43 top two or three roster in the NFL, hosting the game against a team as almost a touchdown favorite. You just got to win the game. They're just anything less than a win. No one's judging you on stats, on how Jalen plays, on how many yards you throw for, how many sacks you have, no one gives a shit. You could win this game two to nothing,
Starting point is 00:12:05 or you could win it 30 to 3, but you got to win the game. And I think the crazy part about this matchup is for being a massive favorite in this game, I would imagine a lot of people in Philadelphia are a little nervous. Now, it's sports, anything can happen, but this is a game on paper that, like, if we just corral Jaden a little bit,
Starting point is 00:12:31 they should have no chance against us. Because unlike Detroit, whose defense was Swiss cheese, we have a $5 million defensive coordinator. We have a defensive lineman who looks like Chris Jones at 22 or 23 years old in Jalen Carter. We have several other guys on the front that are coming on. Zach Bond's an all pro. Mitchell's going to play.
Starting point is 00:12:51 He's one of the best rookie corners we've seen in recent memory. You have a fantastic nickel corner. corner in Degine. You have an experienced other corner in slaves. Actually, have been pretty solid. C.J. Gardner Johnson has brought you that physical element that you missed last year. Just kind of an edge to the team.
Starting point is 00:13:08 And, like, there's just no excuse. Now, the one question mark, if you are in a tight game, your kicker, how could anyone trust their kicker? But I think all the pressure in this game, 100% of it falls on the Philadelphia Eagles. As an organization, the players, the coaches, the front office, the owner,
Starting point is 00:13:26 this is their game to win. I think we all agree with that. There's no like house money. This thing's going to be easy, but you just got to win this game. I think when you look at number two, most pressure, I think when you look at the Buffalo Bills, like how many opportunities you're going to get, right?
Starting point is 00:13:45 Some of these teams, like Thravens have played Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs one time in the Lamar Jackson era. They've lost some other weird games to the Tennessee Titans. this year to the Buffalo Bills. It's not like Patrick Mahomes is knocking them out every year. And when you look at the Buffalo Bills, Sean McDermott just has a team that every year when the season starts, this year was weird, right?
Starting point is 00:14:10 Everyone at the beginning of the season, not myself. Now, I got some wrong, but this one I never understood. I was like, what about the Jets? What about Robert Sala and Aaron Rogers? It's like, yeah, all these guys are going to be fired and his team's going to win four or five games and be a laughing sock by Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving, Halloween. And Sean McDermott just continues to win, continues to win.
Starting point is 00:14:34 And he literally just won, I would say, the biggest game of his head coaching career against the Baltimore Ravens. And now he gets the Chiefs. Granted, it's on the road. A team he's lost to three straight times in the playoffs. They skipped a year, but 2020, 2020, 2022, and 2023. I guess 2020, 2020, 2021, and then 2023. They didn't play in 22. But he doesn't get discussed like a lot of these other coaches.
Starting point is 00:15:00 Now, granted, he doesn't have a Super Bowl. So when you bring up Tomlin or Harbaugh or, you know, if you go some of the younger crew, the McVeys, but even like if you just said, who's a better coach? Sean McDermott or Mike Vrable to the just casual football fan. I think everyone was just to say Mike Vrable. It's like based on what? Now, I think the pushback always got Josh Allen.
Starting point is 00:15:22 Well, yeah, I mean, he's, I'd say, done a pretty good job building the team, coaching the team, and helping out Josh Allen along the way, but he gets no credit. You win this game? Talk about Sean McDermott just took the Buffalo Bills for the first time in basically 30 plus years to the Super Bowl, took out in two straight weeks, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. That's the other thing. Defense? That's Sean McDermott's baby. Like, he's a defensive guy. he also got his career start working for Andy Reid Once upon a time Andy Reid wasn't totally his fault Joe Banner fired Sean McDermott
Starting point is 00:16:01 Who then went on to go with Ron to the Panthers And several years later he's helped them get to the Super Bowl Sean McDermott has done a phenomenal job in Buffalo But like you don't win this game I think we would just come to grips with You're just never beating Patrick Mowoms and Andy Reed It's never going to happen No matter how great your team is
Starting point is 00:16:20 And if it wasn't for those two, you might have multiple Super Bowls. But you're just never beaten this team. You lose this game. You're just like never getting a Super Bowl. That's honestly what it would feel like. It's just not happening for Sean McDermott against these guys. The only way they get to a Super Bowl is somehow they avoid them. They would need them to lose.
Starting point is 00:16:39 But I do think there's some tangible pressure because, like, this is a great opportunity. Like, you're a one and a half point underdog at Kansas City for a reason. honestly, that's a pretty big compliment of what they think of your team. And your team, unlike all these other teams, plays the Chiefs really, really well. Should have beat them three years ago in that 13 second game. And the other thing is Sean McDermott and some of their bad losses, not just in the regular season, but that one most famously is like he gets blamed with that. Like, how can that happen?
Starting point is 00:17:10 And rightfully so. Like, that is a coaching situation. You have lost some of these games while your quarterback has played awesome. So I think there is a lot of pressure on Sean McDermott. There's pressure as well on Josh Allen. But to me on the rankings on the Buffalo Bills, I would go Sean McDermott one and Josh Allen number two. NFL playoffs, we're talking about the NFL playoffs.
Starting point is 00:17:40 You bet we are. Get in on the action at Draft King Sportsbook. An official sports betting partner of the NFL. Scoring touchdowns is a key to winning in the NFL playoffs. And the key, to use scoring big is betting on them at Draft Kings. The number one place to bet touchdowns. Ready to place your first bet?
Starting point is 00:18:01 Try betting on something as simple like a player to score a touchdown. Go to Draft King Sportsbook app and make your pick. Here's another reason to watch your favorite players crush it in the playoffs. New customers bet five bucks to get $200 in bonus bets instantly. Score big during the NFL playoffs with the Draft King Sportsbook. Download on the Draft King Sportsbook app. Use the code John, J-O-H-N, that's code John for new customers to get 200 in bonus bets instantly when you bet just five bucks.
Starting point is 00:18:31 Only on drafting sports book. The crown is yours. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler. In New York, call 8778-8-Hop-N-Y or text Hope-N-Y-467-369. In Connecticut, help is available for a problem gambling called 888-78-9-77-or or visit ccpG. com. Please play responsibly. On behalf of Boot Hill Casino-in Resort in Kansas, 21-1 and over.
Starting point is 00:18:51 Age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Void in Ontario. Bonus, bets expire 168 hours after issuance. Four additional terms and responsible gaming resources. See dkng.com slash audio. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, new?
Starting point is 00:19:06 Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special.
Starting point is 00:19:21 So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.
Starting point is 00:19:41 I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, Jonas, and offered it up as a potential talk. title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your
Starting point is 00:19:59 podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. Help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
Starting point is 00:20:21 Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing,
Starting point is 00:20:52 we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing and we're still chasing it and we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person
Starting point is 00:21:10 while you hear on earth, or are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. a good person. Join me, Kea Gaines, as we have real conversations
Starting point is 00:21:22 about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free, Our Heart Radio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. Jacob Kingston grew up in an isolated polygamous sect. We were God's chosen kingdom on earth. He felt
Starting point is 00:21:40 destined for greatness. So when a swaggering Armenian businessman catapults Jacob into an extraordinary world, he doesn't look back. Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, meeting the president of Turkey. I'm Michelle McPhee, and this is one of the most shocking criminal conspiracies I've ever come
Starting point is 00:22:01 across. When Jacob met Levant this went to a billion dollar fraud. But with two kings from entirely different worlds, just how long can their empire survive? The largest tax investigation in American history. You need to tell me what you know. is somebody coming after me. Jacob told Levan, you're ruining my life. Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your
Starting point is 00:22:31 podcast. I think number three, it's hard to say the Chiefs have no pressure because anytime you have a chance to become legendary, and that's what they have a chance to do. They have a chance to join such a short list. Obviously, no one's ever won three straight Super Bowls. but they just would put themselves in this situation where they're just be compared to as like the greatest team of all time.
Starting point is 00:23:05 The Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelsey, Andy Reed kind of trio is like Bill Walsh, Joe Montana and that crew. Ronnie Lott, Jerry Rice, Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and his crew. Michael Jordan and Phil Jackson. They're just easily one of the greatest teams of all time. If they just win this game.
Starting point is 00:23:25 I mean, they've already got the three Super Bowls, But if they just go back to another one, it's like, do they just, they're just going to go to the Super Bowl every year? And I understand people that don't like the Chiefs are getting tired of them. But it's incredible for business. It really is because everyone has an opinion on the Chiefs. People hate Travis Kelsey because of Taylor Swift. People like Travis Kelsey because of Taylor Swift. People think Patrick Mahalm is annoying.
Starting point is 00:23:47 People think the Chiefs are annoying. They get too many calls. They're just too good. People just like greatness. You could meet, I could just walk down the street, not literally my street. because no one would be outside, but if you just went to a street where people were walking down on the sidewalk and just run into the first five people and just say, what do you think of the Kansas City Chiefs? I think you would get five different answers.
Starting point is 00:24:08 Some would be mad, some would be negative, and some would be pretty positive. So not being in Kansas City where it would be universally positive. But there's no guarantee, like you just never know year to year. And, I mean, there is a chance that Travis Kelsey retires after this season. He already has three championships. He's made a ton of money. He's dating a woman who's probably worth a billion dollars. He wants to get in more and more to acting.
Starting point is 00:24:39 And I just think you've got to take advantage when you have these opportunities because you never know when they're going to come back. And they're 120 minutes away, right? They are 120 minutes away from winning three straight Super Bowls. I hate saying never. But I just don't think that's ever happening. It's literally never happened before. Why would we think it would ever happen again?
Starting point is 00:25:04 Especially with the structure of the salary cap, you know, the injury risk of just the elongated season. Now, you know, Roger Goodell's beating the drum of we're going to go to 18 games in a regular season, two preseason games. So it's just going to get to me more and more difficult to do this in the NFL. Now you could also have the counter that, you know, the quarterback play, a lot of these younger quarterbacks that have come into the league, you know, it's been very hit or miss, given the hype, honestly, a lot more miss than hit. That as long as you got Patrick Mahomes, like, it's not going to be shocking that every single year is going to be Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes,
Starting point is 00:25:43 and if the Bengals just get their head out of their ass, they should be there. And it's just like everyone's, you know, basically in the AFC has no chance, but those four teams. And maybe that's true. But I like watching people trying to become legends. And that's why I'm just really, really like everybody, fired up for this game. And then the commanders. I honestly think they have no pressure.
Starting point is 00:26:06 They have absolutely none. And I think if they are in the game, then yeah. You know, the house money disappears if you have a 10-7 lead in the third quarter. Right? You have the chance to go to the Super Bowl. But before kickoff, if you tell me they get beat 35 to 13. I think it's been one of the most remarkable things we've ever seen, that the Washington commanders went from having the number two overall pick.
Starting point is 00:26:34 They added a couple veteran players here and there, and they just added a new coach, a new owner, a new GM, and a new quarterback, and just are in the NFC championship game. A franchise that has been beyond pitiful, beside the one RG3 season, no one has ever taken these teams seriously. any of their decent team seriously. And now they're in the NFC championship game.
Starting point is 00:27:02 But they're a six-point favorite simply because of Jaden. You could argue that number should be a little bit bigger. Like, I think that number should be over a touchdown. But like I said, I expect them to lose this game. And I'm not a Washington hater. I think it'd be cool if they were to win. But if they lose, who cares? I said this about Denver and I said this about the Chargers
Starting point is 00:27:30 and they lost in the first round. Both of them got their ass kicked. That'll be the worst version of the team that they have moving forward. They will only be better. The same can be said about the commanders. The difference is they just went on the road and won two playoff games.
Starting point is 00:27:47 They just knocked out the Detroit Lions who won 15 games and honestly, kind of kicked their ass. They've won 14 games, 14 games this season. Think how many seasons when the commanders were really struggling, they'd have multiple years where their win total didn't add up to 14. I bet there's a stretch over the last 20 years where they had a three-year stretch that barely got to 14 or just a little bit over.
Starting point is 00:28:17 So you're looking at a franchise that isn't just on the come. I think now with Jaden Daniels, they will become one of the more marketable teams in the NFL. And speaking about marketable players, can I tell you about who the hottest player right now is in the NFL? Presented by our friends at Louisiana Hot Sauce. Bring the food at your big game party to a whole new level with the original Louisiana brand hot sauce,
Starting point is 00:28:49 with bold authentic flavor that embodies the rich culinary tradition of Louisiana. The original Louisiana brand hot sauce is perfect for those who demand great flavor with just the right amount of heat. This is the greatest rookie quarterback stretch we've ever seen. Jaden Daniels just took a team that, let's face it, isn't exactly loaded with talent. 60 minutes away from the Super Bowl. This is not a team. It's like, well, they have an incredible kicker, punter, top five defense. he just has to manage the game.
Starting point is 00:29:26 No, he literally has to dominate. And their coaches are able to go forward on every fourth down. Not because they're just some crazy gun slingers. Not because they're Dan Campbell and they have the best offensive lines, some of the best personnel in recent memory.
Starting point is 00:29:41 Because they got Jaden Daniels. And at any moment, the guy can make a play with his legs, can dominate from within the pocket, can throw on the run, and they can legitimately just run. and because, like, listen, he's a little reckless, but he will just dive forward. He's not Mr. Slide. He ain't coming up short. It's remarkable.
Starting point is 00:30:02 I mean, it's just a fan of football as someone who loves watching great players. It's one of the coolest things in recent memory. And speaking of Louisiana, like, you can't tell me that he is not more equipped to play right now in the NFL because of the experience that he had at L.S. over the two years. Herm Edwards had him forever. Everyone's like, this guy can't play. Then he goes to LSU. He starts practicing and playing against the best players in the country. And by his second year, he's playing with two all-star wide receivers, wins the Heisman, and goes number two in the draft. And honestly, I think, listen, I'm not writing off Caleb's career. But is Caleb's a lock to ever be in the NFC championship game?
Starting point is 00:30:49 Is Drake Mason Locked to ever win playoff games? I mean, what this guy's already accomplished in year one, and obviously the story, if you haven't seen it, is he gets up every morning, I think Tuesday of every game week, at 6 a.m., as they've kind of put in some of the game plan, and he watches cut-ups and film with VR goggles against his upcoming opponent. And it, like, helps him ease into the week. and he credits a lot of his calmness, his stability from within the pocket, and just we see a guy that looks like a 10-year veteran because of these VR goggles. So when you speak about a guy hot, you can't be any hotter. The momentum Jaden Daniels is going to have, even if they get blown out in this game, heading into the offseason.
Starting point is 00:31:43 Remember when Baker Mayfield hit the scene and you couldn't turn on television without seeing a commercial of Baker Mayfield, get ready for this guy. If he were to win this game, I mean, he would have like a Patrick Mahomes marketing campaign behind him. But even if he doesn't, buckle up because this guy is going to parlay his hot season into a very, very marketable offseason. So listen, that's Jaden Daniels, who thanks to our friends at Louisiana Hot Sauce, is really hot. on the field. And is the perfect pick to match your game day eats? Okay, a couple other NFL topics.
Starting point is 00:32:25 I don't really know what else to say about the Cowboys and Brian Schadenheimer. Just seems insane to me. It really does. But I think at this point in time, if that's who they end up hiring, Jerry Jones really would have become the 2025 version of Al Davis 20 years ago. that's what it will exactly feel like. And it'll feel like a guy lost at sea that doesn't know what he's doing, this lost his fastball that just is in a really bad place.
Starting point is 00:32:58 And I think if Brian Schadenheimer is the guy that's hired, I think Cowboy fans, everyone, I think as a fan, you want to be hopeful, you want to be optimistic, but I think they would just fully turn on them. And, you know, I saw a headline today that Jerry, who's clearly just running the search solo. and any person listening to this that works for a small business works for a company or a business where one human runs it. If that human is older, I think we've all been in situations that have seen those type people.
Starting point is 00:33:30 And listen, I grew up a lot of my friends like grandparents or small business owners. You can just get stubborn as you get older. And whether you have a company that makes a million dollars a year in revenue or you have a company that makes billions in revenue like the Cowboys, your mindset, one is you just age, you just slip a little bit. You know, most people are not Warren Buffett in their mid-90s being able to hold a conversation. And I think it is fair to say that Jerry, and you saw some of the comments this year, it's like he's not quite as sharp and witty as he once was. And I would say in his heyday, like Jerry was about a sharp and witty as anyone in the NFL.
Starting point is 00:34:09 And now it feels like, I don't know, man. And I would imagine, and they'll never say this because it's their way. dad and obviously the life he's provided them. But I can't even imagine what Stephen Jones is telling his right-hand man or his wife or probably not his son because he might spill the beans to grandpa, but just like, this is fucking insane. What is dad doing? But when dad's got all the juice and dad ultimately is the boss, he can do whatever he wants.
Starting point is 00:34:37 And the thing with Al Davis in the mid to late 2000s, he had to answer to nobody. Now, the thing is, Al Davis never answered to anybody. Just like Jerry Jones. Jerry Jones answers to nobody. Well, it's fine when you're sharp and you know what you're doing and you're in that position because you've put yourself into that position. Like you've earned that. You created that.
Starting point is 00:34:59 Once you start losing it, I think it can get really, really ugly. And if I was a cowboy fan right now, I'd be pretty nervous. The other story I saw is that Tony Buselli, you know what's crazy is like you can be a really, really successful businessman, and clearly you would have to be. I mean, you have to be a billionaire to have any thought of buying an NFL team. And the cons, clearly, Shod Khan is a successful human being. He is a fantastic, if you ever had the chance to talk to Shod Khan and you work in the private sector, you would have to be on crack cocaine to not pick his brains and get out your notepad and take notes
Starting point is 00:35:38 when he talked about business. but when it comes to running a football team, and I don't know if it's out of sight, out of mind, he's not in the office every day, he has no clue what he's doing. And that's the crazy part about professional sports. You can be the most dominant human in your field. Print cash, be worth billions upon billions upon billions of dollars.
Starting point is 00:36:01 And then you buy some professional organization, basketball, baseball, or football, and just be a complete fish out of water. But it's not like you're going to relent, or give up any of your power of going, I don't know what I'm doing, because the reason you own that team is because of you. So usually they almost double down on like,
Starting point is 00:36:22 I'll figure it out, I'll figure it out. And the answer is like, I don't think you will figure it out here. I think it would just show that these guys are lost at sea. And to hire Tony Buselli because he needs some help doing this. When I was living in the Bay Area, one time I walked into a Starbucks,
Starting point is 00:36:37 and I remember waiting for my coffee and looking, probably five feet away of just this massive human being. And I realized, that's Tony Buceli. And I think at the time, this was probably three or four years ago, he was doing stuff with the Pac-12 network, not like on television, but helping out the conference. And clearly he's a smart, high-level guy. But I think any time you make these type hires,
Starting point is 00:37:02 just feels like you're lost. And that's what Ersay did a couple years ago with Jeff Saturday. Like, Jeff Saturday is an impressive individual. but if you hire them to be your coach in the middle of the season, there is no bigger red flag of, I have no fucking clue what's going on than that. And last but not least, the low ratings, it was like the least watched,
Starting point is 00:37:24 one of the least watched championship games ever, which two of the biggest brands in all college football, Notre Dame, Ohio State. You know, I watched it. So I guess I had a different take when everyone was complaining. Obviously, Trump gets inaugurated. It's a holiday.
Starting point is 00:37:43 So people are watching TV by the time that game comes on, maybe they're just, I don't know, just not into it. Not a good game early on. And a lot of people push back and say that the game should be basically on New Year's, like when the Rose Bowl is, which I think would be a little complicated because you would basically have to go to an NFL playoff situation of, or scenario where you just start the week after Thanksgiving or two weeks and then just play every single week if you're going to go with a 12 or 14 team playoff moving forward.
Starting point is 00:38:17 So I was like, what else are going to watch? There's nothing on television on Monday night. But clearly I was wrong because people didn't tune in. Maybe there is some truth to momentum is a powerful thing. And college football had a lot of momentum and then you disappear for a while. You know, the way society is now and I'm guilty. guilty of this. We just, we bounce all over the place. It's, it's very, very hard. The most powerful thing anyone has in my business is the ability to capture attention. It's, it's very
Starting point is 00:38:48 tough to do. And if you can, it's a, it's very, it's very lucrative. And college football had us there for a couple weeks, and maybe they did lose some momentum. So maybe they need to figure out a way to move it up a little bit, but, you know, you can't play on Monday night after the wildcard round, because they play a Monday night football game. So you're not going to go up against Monday night football of an NFL playoff game. If you put it before, I guess you could have put it last week, like Thursday. Do you want to play a Thursday night game? I don't know, but this is definitely something that's going to be discussed.
Starting point is 00:39:27 Okay, Fugazi Friday. I've had a couple. I actually thought of this. This one thing's been kind of wearing on me is I'm going to get married here in, I don't know, five, six weeks. And most of my friends, especially, you know, my friends from high school, my friends from college, my friends that I worked with in the NFL that were similar to my age, they're all married. And most of them, I would say, got married either in their late 20s or early 30s. And for those of you listening that have got married, I would say
Starting point is 00:40:01 younger in life than me, a wedding registry is very very, very much. normal protocol. And Maria's brother, who I think is 29 years old, who has a young baby now on the way, they got married last year, you just, you feel you wouldn't even hesitate if I was 28, 29, 30 years old to be like, hey, buy me a bunch of presents, right? Buy me a bunch of shit. I'm 40 years old. I am very, very uncomfortable with people, especially her friends.
Starting point is 00:40:36 if I don't know them that well, or even like my aunts and uncles or whoever in my life, buying me something. One, I don't get gifts anymore for Christmas. Maybe I will one day when my children get a little older. They get me something stupid, just more of the thought that count. But I don't want, I've been working now for 20 plus years. Luckily, life's going pretty well, pretty successful. I just am very uncomfortable with the thought, and we've been getting a lot of, like,
Starting point is 00:41:02 and listen, Maria set it up. It's not like I took part in it. But I, every time a gift comes, I'm just like, ugh, ugh. And maybe that's an insecurity me. Maybe it's just completely normal protocol. What is the age where you get to a point if you're going to get married? Like if you know someone who's getting married for the second time, 50 years old. Let's say they're having like a decent size wedding.
Starting point is 00:41:27 Do they have a, especially if the guy's like doing well. It's like, yeah, this guy owns a company. They're doing like 75 million in revenue a year. It's like, does he do a wedding registry? Like, you know, I want this coffee maker. I want this. I even did this. We even did this thing as like, yeah, let's just do a fun for our backyard.
Starting point is 00:41:44 It's like, it sounded okay in theory when I said it out loud because I got to redo my backyard. Got to redo the pool, retile it. Spa doesn't really work. New equipment. It's pricey. Put a new turf on the side. We don't do grass here in Arizona. Did a fun.
Starting point is 00:42:00 And it was like, right after I did it, it feels like a go fund me. I'm like, I don't know. I'm just very, very uncomfortable. When is the cutoff where it's okay to ask for things when you're getting married? The more and more I think about it, it's, I think as a guy, what you get past 40? Is it a red flag? Am I a major red flag right now? The other thing is someone hit me up with this that they thought, you know, any of those congressional hearings, right?
Starting point is 00:42:34 whenever there's like a Supreme Court justice or right now Trump, all the, all the guys he's nominating for different positions in the government and they go through that hearing where it's just like loaded with senators and whoever the person is, if it's a Democrat, then all the Republicans, if it's Republican, then all the Democrats. And they are just waiting for their five minutes to go viral. And he basically said, like, this is the biggest, who in their right mind takes any of this seriously? And I was thinking about it.
Starting point is 00:43:02 Like, it's impossible now in social media to not see some clips from whatever those goes down. But sometimes those things take place for days on end, whether it's one individual people, whether it's countless people. And it happens a lot to, like, when they're coming after a business. You know, remember what Facebook got in trouble years ago and Zuckerberg's up there and they're just coming a couple years ago. It happens in a lot of different walks of life. I was thinking about, I've never, ever thought about clicking to watch one of those besides just the clips that I can't avoid on social media.
Starting point is 00:43:41 I'd rather like eat a shit sandwich than watch that for days on end. I think there is nothing worse. I think it's one of the biggest clown shows. Most of these lifetime politicians who've, let's face it, most of them haven't really never generated a penny of revenue in the real, world like you and I have and they're getting up there like they know everything and they are just screaming. It's like this is so stupid. How have we come to this? And maybe, listen, I'm no historian here, but it's, it feels it's been over the top for a long, long time. It feels like
Starting point is 00:44:20 it gets worse by the year. And I don't know if we're ever going back, but like I said, I might be one of the biggest Fugazis ever, a 40 year old doing a wedding registry. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, me? Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts.
Starting point is 00:44:51 Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And, well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.
Starting point is 00:45:15 I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you
Starting point is 00:45:47 funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Jacob Kingston grew up in an isolated polygamist sect. We were God's chosen kingdom on earth. He felt destined for greatness. So when a swaggering Armenian businessman catapults Jacob into an extraordinary world,
Starting point is 00:46:23 he doesn't look back. Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, meeting the president of Turkey. I'm Michelle McPhee, and this is one of the most shocking, criminal conspiracies I've ever come across. When Jacob met Levant this went to a billion dollar fraud. But with two kings from entirely different worlds, just how long can their empire survive? The largest tax investigation in American history. You need to tell me what you know.
Starting point is 00:46:52 Is somebody coming after me? Jacob told Levan, you're ruining my life. Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened.
Starting point is 00:47:16 That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear.
Starting point is 00:47:31 The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. SportsSlice brings you closer to the action
Starting point is 00:47:46 with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slices Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Okay, it really hit me on Monday night when I was watching Notre Dame get run off the field and then come storming back.
Starting point is 00:48:13 The guy, we don't have many more snaps of football here. And I do not count spring football. So we got three games left. Luckily, they're what many would consider the three best games. And I bring my man Stucky from the Action Network who, you know, I saw some of your tweets midgame against the Ravens. That was rough. Obviously, the one that stands out in my head was the turnover luck that the old fighting Ryan Fitzpatrick's and Buffalo have right now. And you think that might eventually come to an end.
Starting point is 00:48:51 That was, I thought that it was different than the Chiefs game in the AFC championship game, but somewhat similar of like, guys, are we overthinking this? Hand it to 22 and just run Lamar every play. What are we doing? Yeah, that was, there's a disappointing loss. I mean, statistically they were the better team, but you can't look at all four games last week. I mean, the Texans on a down-the-down basis were arguably the better team.
Starting point is 00:49:22 And the cheats at one point, it was like 300 to 100 yards. And what did they do? They, I mean, they got sacked eight times, but special teams blunders. Lions, I mean, their offense moved up and down the field. What do they do? Turned it over a million. times. And then you look at the Ravens and what did them and the Rams too. But the Ravens,
Starting point is 00:49:50 it was mistakes that Lamar just doesn't make in the regular season. It's crazy. I think he's turned it over two or more times and 50% of his playoff games. I think he's done that in the regular season, only 10% of the time. Fumble's a little freaky right in the weather. To me, the pick was he hadn't done that all year just i mean that was like a james winston it just yeah it was just an arm punt but even the if the fumble you just can't do that at this point in your career i mean he wasn't touched i know it was fluky and then your veteran tight end mark andgers was it was a shame to see but i mean obviously you have the two-point conversion drop you have the fumble that was devastating fumble but even a play that many aren't even talking about is before the
Starting point is 00:50:36 Lamar fumble, which Mark Hage has dropped a wide open pass. So, you know, the next play might have been different. Everything is the whole game could have been different. So the worst game you've ever seen him play? Yeah. I mean, he's a really good player, obviously. You know, like his career, he never fumbles. I think he only had like two drops on the season.
Starting point is 00:51:02 Yeah, 11 touchdowns this season. Yeah. And so it was a shame to see, but they made mistakes and the bills didn't. I did think that the bills, and look, the bills have been very fortunate in, I think they're plus 24, plus 27 if you count the playoffs in turnover margin this year. And that's a tough thing to rely on against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in Arrowhead. this late in the season. I think Mahomes has won 20 straight games at home and cold temperatures in November or later. So they've definitely been fortunate in the turnover department.
Starting point is 00:51:44 Like Josh Allen's had a terrific year, but he's down the way with some throws. And then their defense has just come up with timely turnovers, some lucky, some not, over and over again. Does that come to an end this week? I did think that the bills turtled up. And they were kind of just trying to run out the clock in the end. like some of the play calls late. Like they, like you still have Josh Allen. Still be aggressive. Yeah, like the quick screen. It was like, what are we doing?
Starting point is 00:52:12 Like it let him just throw a slant route for five yards instead of hoping you can break 10 yards behind the last scrimmage. So I thought that they got a little too conservative. And why I bring that up is that. Well, that's the coach. That's the coach telling Joe Brady because they hadn't run those plays throughout the game. Yeah. But why I bring that up is you can't do that this week. If you're going to beat.
Starting point is 00:52:34 the Chiefs, in Arrowhead in the playoffs, you have to kill them late. Because if it's, say the bills are up four with 2.30 to go, and the Chiefs have the ball. I mean, what's going to happen? The bills can't defend over the middle of the field, and you're going to give homes four downs to just pick them apart and go up and down, up and down the field, probably score a game in a touchdown. You have to kill them. How did the bills beat the Chiefs in the first game when they met earlier this season?
Starting point is 00:53:10 Is they, instead of kicking a field goal, they went for it on fourth down. And Alan ran it in to go up nine. Like that's what they're going to need to do. They're going to have to stay aggressive and you're going to have to kill shot the Chiefs because you can't give them the ball. You can't give them the home to the ball late at home in the playoffs. Because this Bill's defense has real issues, especially defending over the middle the field, which is what the chiefs are going to do to attack here.
Starting point is 00:53:38 They're probably going to go pass heavy, and they're just going to relentlessly attack their linebackers and their safeties. And not to mention, the bills also have some potential injuries in their secondary as well. So the bills are going to have to stay aggressive, and they're just going to need a monster game from Josh Allen. You know, it's weird that, like, I remember telling you, it was like, you can get basically the Ravens, Bills, this was to start the playoff six to one to win the Super Bowl. And you're basically, you bet on them both, you don't know which one's going to win,
Starting point is 00:54:15 and knowing that they're going to play the Chiefs in the next round. I saw, I would just look before we hopped on, the bills are, you know, a little over 2 to 1 to win the Super Bowl, obviously. You know, whoever won that game was going to drop dramatically. But, like, the Ravens pretty big kick in the nuts the last two years, losing the Chiefs game and the Bills game. but like they're such a well-run organization. They're going nowhere.
Starting point is 00:54:38 They've just, their team, you know, top to bottom is better than the bills fully healthy, right? You could argue it's the best team in the AFC. If you remove the three quarterbacks, they have the best roster. And John already has the Super Bowl. Like there is this Sean McDermott. Obviously there's just Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, but there's a Sean McDermott Andy Reid thing. Like John Harbaugh was Andy Reid's guy, but he won a Super Bowl like seven years before Andy ever won one.
Starting point is 00:55:03 Right? There's this Sean McDermott thing. Like, it's always kind of the elephant in the room. Like, is he always kind of fighting for his job? Is he just a made man? It doesn't feel like he gets treated like Harbaal or Tomlin with the conversation despite his success. And now he's got, like his quarterback this year has played better than Annie's quarterback.
Starting point is 00:55:22 And he just probably gets the biggest win of his career. Is that fair to say against the Ravens? And now the momentum coming in, I think more than the Ravens, like they can show up because they have. have beat this team so many times in the regular season. And they've played them well in the postseason. I do think they'll show up believing they can win the game. Now, how much does that mean?
Starting point is 00:55:42 I don't know. But there is something to be said when you're playing fucking Michael Jordan or Tom Brady or you show up last group next to Tiger Woods in 2002 in the Red. Like 99% of people don't believe. Like the Lions, most teams in the NFL would not believe they can beat the Chiefs. This is the one team. And now are they good enough or not? I'm tempted to, let's just talk about that game, tempted to take the bills based on odds.
Starting point is 00:56:07 Like, what are the odds? This team, like, they haven't really had, I mean, that Bangle game, but it was like, was Mahomes concussed or something? Because that's, like, the weirdest half they've ever played. You know, against the Pats in his first year, like, they just legitimately got beat. It was a crazy, tough game. Pats played a million of those. The Bangle game does not look like any of their other games, that second half, right? So it's like, I'm assuming the Chiefs are going to play well, right?
Starting point is 00:56:32 as they always do, no different than last week against, or last year against the Ravens, where it's not like they won 30 to 10. I mean, they won 17 to 10, right? And they didn't score a point in the second half. So it's just like, okay, are the bills buttoned up enough? Is their coach loose enough? I think their team will believe, I think the key, and this is what the Chiefs often do, and they did it against Houston right away. They're up 13 to 3. It's like, they're not even playing that well. They did it to you guys last year. They're up 7-0 right away. It's like, holy shit, they're here to play. It's like if that happens, a 7-0, nothing, that takes the wind.
Starting point is 00:57:05 You almost have to, I've taken the bills. Again, based on, you'd be crazy to take the bills based on recent history. It's just the odds. I saw a highlight of the Peyton Manning come back, the Pats. It's going to happen sooner or later if someone's going to beat them. And it's just got to be the team that has to come into this game believing they can. And eventually, a couple things are going to go wrong for the Chiefs, right? You'd think, because if they win this game, is there a soul?
Starting point is 00:57:32 in the world that believes they're not going to win the Super Bowl? Probably not. No. I'm not sure an Eagles are commanders fan. Yeah, I like the commander's story. I think they would have zero chance to be Kansas City. Agreed. Yeah, I make it a coin, like basically like a coin flip game. So I don't think I'll be betting on a side.
Starting point is 00:57:57 I mean, just Mahomes is an underdog or a favorite under a fuel goal in the playoffs. 7-0 straight up, 7-0 against his, but everyone knows. all the numbers. Weather's irrelevant, right? Because all the, same with the Ravens, they're all used to playing in the cold. It's just normal.
Starting point is 00:58:10 That doesn't matter. But I mean, you can't ignore the fact that the chiefs have been overwhelming all season. And then everyone just says, oh, well, they turn it on in the playoffs.
Starting point is 00:58:19 They didn't really turn it on last week. I was ugly. I mean, this is a Texan's offense that looked horrendous all year long. And outside of the sacks, they were moving the ball with who. I mean,
Starting point is 00:58:32 they were down their top two receivers. they're also down two starting defensive backs. And they played pretty well. Maybe the Texas are just a bad matchup because they had some moments in the regular season game. They played well in that game. They're just a good match. Yeah, well, they have guys who can wreck the game off the edge.
Starting point is 00:58:48 Do the bills have that? Not necessarily. Because the biggest weakness on this Chiefs team is their offensive line. And they've kicked Tunei out to left tackle. That's hurt their run game, by the way. When he was at left guard and then you, just have a big guy tackle no matter who it was, they could run the ball much more effectively.
Starting point is 00:59:08 Now with Tuny out at left tackle, you have a backup guard in there. Their run game has kind of taken a hit. And it's not like Tuny is elite elite elite. They still need to help them at some. But the Texans have elite corners who basically took out Brown and Hopkins at no catches. And they have elite edge rushers who did a lot in that game. DeAnder Hopkins played in that game. I didn't even fucking see him.
Starting point is 00:59:36 It didn't even hear his name once. Yeah, him and Brown and zero catches. The Texans really missed Petrie and Ward in that game because the Chiefs just went over the middle of the field and they went to Worthy and, you know, missing your starting slot and starting safety. In the end, really hurt the Texans in addition to their wide receiver injuries and the special team's mistakes.
Starting point is 00:59:55 But, yeah, I mean, to me, this game is probably just going to be back and forth until the end. I'll look to bet it live. I actually don't mind the over. I'm still contemplating if I'm going to play it because I do think that the Chief's defense is ultimately overrated this year.
Starting point is 01:00:17 I know they got Jalen Watson back in the secondary, but their strength, when their defense is really good is when Spaggs dials up pressure, they can get sacks. You know, Carloptus has been great this year. Everyone knows about Chris Jones. But you have, the bills have a really good offensive line. And Josh Allen is as good as any quarterback in the NFL with aiding sacks.
Starting point is 01:00:37 And, you know, he can use his legs here. Because if you go back, this Chiefs team all year, I mean, the Ravens in week one put up 450 yards on them. Since then, they didn't play a single, like, healthy offense. I mean, you could go the next week was Bengals without Higgins. The Falcons lose two starting offensive linemen. The Bucs don't have Godwin and Evans. I mean, I could go on and on.
Starting point is 01:01:01 Even, you know, the Texans lose Dell. The Texans don't have Dell and digs last week. I could go on and on all season long. They have benefited from facing offenses that were short-handed, especially along the offensive line. And then because of that, Spaggs is able to just dial up pressure and their run defense is better. But we even saw the Texans have success running the ball last week,
Starting point is 01:01:25 which they have been able to do for most of the year. So I think Buffalo will be able to move the ball. with Josh Allen. He'll use his legs here. He had a big game running. Remember, last year in the second round against them, but I think he ran for like 75 yards. He's had, in the last five meetings with the Chiefs, he's had 11 or more carries, which is pretty wild.
Starting point is 01:01:44 I think he's gone 11, 12, 12, 12, and 11. You can get two touchdowns rushing, basically, for plus 550. He's definitely getting one with his legs. And if it's, you know, at the goal line. Short yardage, yeah. Yeah, they're going to use him as a battering ram. So I do think that the Chiefs defense, even this late in the season, is a bit overrated, and the bills will be able to move the ball on him. Assuming that they come in with an aggressive game plan, which they need to have here.
Starting point is 01:02:15 And then I think the Bill's defense is overrated as well, just from a pure talent perspective. And their top corners in concussion protocol, we'll see with Benford. But their safeties are bad. Milano had a good game last week, but their linebackers are okay. but Milano's kind of a little past his prime. And their defensive line is good, but it's undersized. Like this isn't an elite defense. They've just benefited from a lot of turnovers.
Starting point is 01:02:40 They're so weak over the middle of the field. That's something Kansas City can really take advantage of. Maybe there was some rust with the Kansas City offense last week. I don't think the bills can completely wreck their tackle. So I think both teams can move the ball. And then you know if this isn't like the fourth quarter with Allen and the home's going back and forth, you could get a couple touchdowns late. So I might look at the over.
Starting point is 01:03:03 I just need the bills to come out and be aggressive here, which I keep going back and forth on how they're going to approach this. But I don't mind the over. I make a coin flip. If you're looking for some props, I mean, Kelsey's, yes. Kelsey goes over every week. I think we talked of this last week. It's just free money. He's had 14 straight playoff games with at least five catches and 70 yards, which is they're both NFL records.
Starting point is 01:03:28 but his numbers are inflated if you just do the math. But I'm never going to go under on a Kelsey especially against a team that can't defend the middle of the field. I don't mind looking at Noah Gray. It's kind of like an indirect fade of Kelsey because Kelsey's numbers are so inflated. I think there's some value in Noah Gray like over 13 and a half receiving yards over one and a half catches.
Starting point is 01:03:49 Again, just like likely last week, and I trust the chiefs to do this even more than Ravens, you want to attack the middle of the field. And I know everyone's, knows to prepare for Kelsey and it still doesn't matter but the bills have to be fall in on stopping Kelsey here so I think that's going to open up some opportunities for gray down the field just all the attention on Kelsey especially when the home spies time scrambling if you look back earlier this season when they played Kelsey only had two catches on
Starting point is 01:04:20 four targets and gray had two touchdowns and four catches so in his last five five postseason games. He's at 11 catches, 14 targets, 79 yards. He's averaged a little over two catches, about 16 yards per game. He's cleared one and a half catches and this yardage mark in four of his last five postseason games. So I think that I like Noah Gray. I think he can sneakily have, you know, just a couple big plays down the field. And then under the radar one, Xavier Worthy over rushing yards. You can find this number anywhere from two and a half to three and a half, which is fine. Last week it was four and a half to five,
Starting point is 01:05:00 but he had one rush. The Texans snuffed it out, and it was for negative eight yards, which is why this number's a little cheaper. But this season, you know, he ran it in 16 games in the regular season, remove week 18. He ran it 20 times for 104 yards.
Starting point is 01:05:16 So you average a little over five yards per rush, had one rush for seven yards against Buffalo. So I pretty, if he gets one carry, your favor to win this, bat and I'm pretty confident that he's going to get a carry. If you go on Reed's history in playoff games, over the last, since 2018,
Starting point is 01:05:37 IFC championship game when they played the Patriots and lost that game, they've had a pass catcher run the ball in 19 straight playoff games. And I mean, it's, so 19 of those, they've had, if you look at the numbers, those pass catchers had 34 rushing attempts in the past 20 playoff games for 241 yards. So these pass catchers are averaging like 1.7 carries for 12 yards. And 19 total pass catchers have ran for at least three yards across those 20 games. And there's been times when Tyree Kill, you go back, has had three carries multiple times in playoff games.
Starting point is 01:06:22 And this is a Bill's defense that doesn't. does give up explosive runs. And what the chiefs do every year in the playoffs is they concentrate who they want to get the ball to. During the regular season, it's kind of like spread it all out. And then the postseason, it's like, okay, here's who we really want to get the ball to. And you saw that last week. It's Kelsey and it's worthy. So I think they want to get the ball and worthy's hands as often as possible.
Starting point is 01:06:51 And if they're going to run it with a wide receiver, which read, does in almost every single playoff game. It's more, I would say 80% likelihood to be worthy. And I think that there's a decent chance it gets two carries. So I like worthy over,
Starting point is 01:07:09 don't mind to look at worthy anytime touchdown too. You can get one multiple ways. So worthy over rushing yards as well. Well, I got them on draft kings. The over at four and a half is minus 105. Oh, it's on the move. I'd still bet it but smaller there
Starting point is 01:07:26 But yeah This opened at two and a half Xavier anytime touchdown is almost two to one Plus one 90 Yeah like that like that You know what's crazy about Kelsey Is what year in Mahomes began starting 2018 18
Starting point is 01:07:41 Yeah So they played in the two playoff games They were the one seed That's when the Patriots beat him He had one touchdown in the playoffs From 19 to last year four touchdowns, three touchdowns, three touchdowns, four touchdowns, three touchdowns.
Starting point is 01:07:54 Obviously this year, he just scored a touchdown last week. I mean, he's a multi-touchdown game. When I see Travis Kelsey getting plus odds just to score a touchdown throughout the game, you just know, Patrick looks at his way. You know what I mean? And he finds a way in zone, cheats goes left when you think he's going right. Like they don't have, whenever I see, like, why can't anyone cover him? It's like, guys, they don't, when you game plan against a team, like they run plays,
Starting point is 01:08:19 he doesn't run a route. He runs wherever. If you're going to hang a left, he's going to hang a right, and they know each. They're playing like Carl Malone, John Stockton, Pick and Roll. So they're going to go wherever you don't go. It's not a set play. That's why he can constantly get open. And then like that big play. Look at his touchdown. His touchdown was on a home scramble around. And then he just sits in it. Yeah, he's not like, he's not running like Jerry Rice precise routes here. I mean, he's a great route runner. But he's, he's a, he's a great route runner. But he's. not like, you're doing the right thing probably on defense. You're getting hammered at home when you play him. He's going to do the opposite. So, what's crazy to me about him is that big play that he made against Texans. He, remember they had a game, might have been like a Thursday night, Sunday night or Monday night. It was a prime time game against the Chargers. When him and Tyreek, they came storming back. And those two guys, it was like one of the most dominant performances. And he was so fast just a couple years ago. He's clearly not as fast anymore. But, like his instincts to get open and then even with the ball in his hands.
Starting point is 01:09:22 I saw Belichick did this thing on like that show that he does with Ocho Cinco and Chris Long inside the NFL that he taught Gronk later in his career because Travis has an excellent job is like, once you catch the ball, slow down a little bit and gather and look before just sprinting and a guy can just take out your legs because you can make a move and the guy will overcorrect and he's great. Like he's like a running back with a ball in his hands, just his instincts. And he Every year we see him turning on to the plows
Starting point is 01:09:51 He's the one who benefits The most From the rest At the end of the season And they had You know like a month off And you saw him look A little overjuvenated
Starting point is 01:10:03 There Have you seen the retirement rumors Which obviously they were to win the Super Bowl He's dating Taylor Swift He wants to be an actor Is not crazy He's made a ton of money He's going to make a ton of more
Starting point is 01:10:15 He's dating a billionaire or what else can he accomplish if they win it? What else can he accomplish right now? But like I could see he has a couple, they win the Super Bowl. He'd be like, peace, I'm out. I agree. I think it's like you're, he's maybe favored slightly to do it if they win it and then favored to come back if they don't.
Starting point is 01:10:35 I mean, what out? It's three feet in the NFL. It's never been done before. I mean, how you can't go out much more on top. I mean, I guess it's four feet. but yeah I'm curious to see the NFL playoffs these high leverage games they're a lot of times
Starting point is 01:10:52 they'll just come down to turnovers or a flute play here or there but on a down to down basis what they really come down to is in some of these games or if coach comes out with a major curveball especially a coordinator on either side of the ball we saw that last week with Washington I thought they did a great job in deciding to go really zone heavy and they're dealing.
Starting point is 01:11:14 Defense is not good, but they were, you know, they play a good amount of man and were trending more towards man at the end of the regular season. Gough destroyed man coverage all year. They went more zone heavy that game. And while they didn't stop Detroit from going up and down the field, it led to turnovers on Gough making bad throws into coverage, forcing throws down the field where he didn't read the coverage. I want to, I'm curious to see how the bills play this because. Their McDermott is, he's by nature, you know, a lot of too high, prevent the explosive play, make you work it down the field, and then it's work this year. The offense will eventually make a mistake or will stop you in the red zone. Does, how does he play, knowing he has struggles of the middle of the field?
Starting point is 01:12:07 Like, does they try to play more Robert, do they try to play more man and then force Mahomes? to beat them more, and they don't blitz often, they try to force Mahomes to beat them more with his receivers on the outside in Hopkins and Brown and trust the corners. But to your point, even if they do that, like, Moons is still going to buy time. And if you dedicate like these extra resources to Kelsey, he's still going to find holes.
Starting point is 01:12:39 So I don't know how they play it, but I'm super curious to see the mix of, what they play from the schematic perspective. It's like, do they just because the chiefs are the kings of death by a thousand cuts all the way down the field, which the bills will allow you to do. So they just hope that, hey, we're going to eventually get a sack or turnover or we're just going to stop you in the Redsend? Or do they try to play this more aggressive and say, look, we're going to try to take away Kelsey. We're going to play more aggressive. and then if you want to beat us on the outside with your receivers,
Starting point is 01:13:14 we'll tip our hat if we do. So curious to see what Babbage and McDermott come up with here. And then the same thing with Spagnola. He could always have some curveballs. You know he's going to have some exotic pressures and blitzes. And then Reed's going to have a lot of good stuff cooked up. So, yeah, looking forward to the schematic matchup. But these curve balls in a game like this,
Starting point is 01:13:37 coordinators have something in their back pocket waiting to unleads. leash because you know everything has been will be scouted from the entire season. So that's one of the things that I look forward to in these championship games and in the Super Bowl as well. Well, I would imagine too that the by week, knowing Andy that they did kind of, obviously you're kind of getting ready, you know, guessing who your next opponent is. But I bet they had a couple of quality control guys doing some serious breakdowns on the Ravens of Bills. So that when that game was going on, you know, after they beat Houston, in, you know, Andy's prepping for both. And obviously,
Starting point is 01:14:15 they probably held some stuff back. They probably have a bunch of stuff on offense, which is another reason why I like the over. It's because, you know, they get that kicker turn and then they get a comfortable lead. You didn't really have to unleash the offense. And Texans aren't really an explosive offense to score a bunch of points.
Starting point is 01:14:31 So they were kind of. And you had a month. And then, you know, now you have an extra day. So, like, from a preparation and rest perspective, the chiefs who also get the staff, at home definitely have an advantage over the bills here. But you know that there's, they installed,
Starting point is 01:14:47 you know, a number of offensive looks at the bills having seen that you'll, you'll probably see in this game, which, uh, is a scary proposition for the bills. But another reason why I kind of like the over.
Starting point is 01:15:00 Like, I just think that the, the chief's offense will look much better. I think it was probably some rust two last week. Well, the path, I thought Mahomes, I think he asked them at halftime,
Starting point is 01:15:09 or maybe they asked them at the end of the game, about the rest. He just thought he's like, that front for them, he's like, that's a really good defense. And that front, given their weak offensive line, you know, if you just put Peyton Manning or Tom Brady in their prime in that situation, I mean, how many plays early on in that game, do Patrick keep alive? Not even scrambling to run, but just kind of moving around in the pocket. I mean, he was under siege, you know, and he can move. And that's, you know, what's, like, why he's considered with the great quarterbacks. That's like one of his superpowers is, you know, those guys had to get rid of the ball fast. That's not really, you know, Andy kind of wants to hold it and get an explosive play. And so is Patrick. And he can do it because he's got these, I don't know, all-time great instincts to like no one to move. Because he doesn't like, some of these guys, you're watching me like, this guy just ran into a sack. He rarely does that. But he keeps a lot of plays. Even at the play, like, he throws it away or it's an incompletion. It's like, that is an underrated play by that motherfucker in the pocket.
Starting point is 01:16:05 Both, both of these quarterback's do that. Yeah, I obviously, Josh. I'm the one thing I don't like about this over is I'm super curious. There's been all of this, uh, all of this talk all week and discourse about the refs and the penalties on, on the homes. I hated them both. I hate them all. I don't even blame the refs. I blame the, I blame the NFL the rules, the incessant amount of rules, but I've been
Starting point is 01:16:33 in the NFL for just not having an easy fix to this. We have the eye in the sky, the replay assist. anything like 15-yarders like the you called a a face mask and it wasn't um you missed a clear face mask oh you called roughing the passer which you're their instructed to do but it definitely wasn't this can change games just anyone at home takes two seconds just have a ref radio down if it's obvious and then we're corrected i think they're going to do that in the offseason by the way but these are two quarterbacks who are known to flop like you said it should take under five seconds didn't touch his face mask pick up the flag or hey
Starting point is 01:17:09 They went helmet to helmet on each other, not Patrick Mahomes, no flag. Yeah, we don't need to go under the hood or anything. It's, it'll, um, those, those calls, like, two things can be true. People, like, really struggle. You have the people that are on the chief side and the people on the Texas side. People on the chief side are like, well, the Texans made mistakes and they got sacked eight times. And the people on the Texan side are like, well, they got two calls to change the game. Both of them were true.
Starting point is 01:17:34 Like the Texans played, didn't play well enough to win, but, you know, a couple calls that things could be different. Second call was really devastating Given the Evan flow of that game, right? Because then they drove right down, scored It basically ended the game. Yeah. So I'm super curious to see how it gets called. Both of these quarterbacks have been known to flop.
Starting point is 01:17:54 Alan does it. He hasn't been getting as much shit as Mahomes this week because that flop needs a silence. But Alan does it a lot too. After all, the discourse to the, I have a feeling, it could be dead wrong. but I'm a feeling that you get other, which I would love to see.
Starting point is 01:18:12 You get a swallowed whistle here. And they're not going to call much. And so I, but I'm super curious to see how the game gets called, which wouldn't hurt, which wouldn't help the over because I kind of like the over. So I would love, if I bet the over,
Starting point is 01:18:26 I would love for some flops and personal fouls. So I'm very curious to see how the game gets called after all the discourse this week. But I do think in, in the off season, the NFL will address that. And the other thing that's made me so angry about this NFL season is that eye in the sky with a replay assist, when do they use it? They use it like, it's so random.
Starting point is 01:18:54 They just decide to use it every once in a while. And then some other times, it's just, it's gone from the game and the guy, the eye in the sky is sleeping or I don't know what he's doing. It's just, it's so random when they decide to use it and when they They don't. So they need to get more consistent there. And they need to make all of these 15-yard penalties be able to just be quickly overturned. And if it's close, fine.
Starting point is 01:19:18 You just have the guy say, ah, it's close. We don't need to say anything. But the ones that are, and you just, you don't have to go to the hood. You just have a guy sit down. That's pretty close. Just stay with a call in the field. You can even just yell to the crowd. They have to replace this.
Starting point is 01:19:33 It stands. But the ones that are completely obvious that everyone knows. and I think the NFL will do it in the all season. And people are like, oh, it's going to add to the game. It'll, it'll happen four times a game. It'll take five seconds. You're telling me you don't have 25 seconds. You can't have 25 seconds the game to get it right.
Starting point is 01:19:53 Stop. I get not going under the hood for three minutes and a commercial break for everything. But the replays is just get more consistent. That's my rant for the day. My ran is I do think that Patrick Mahomes stopping on the sideline and he's done it countless times. He did it against the 49ers. Nick Bosa said after the game, he's like, in what
Starting point is 01:20:13 world are we, what are we talking about here? It's, it's, I think he should be flagged for that. If you stop at the sideline and do it, like, you have to, this is where the Tom Brady thing, where he pushes and like, these rules, like, are a joke. I mean, not that long ago,
Starting point is 01:20:29 you would have had someone torpedoing into his head in that moment. Of just like, fuck you. And I love the guy. I, We'll back him up, like you said, against all these people that think there's like some, the actual conspiracy that once happened, happened with the Lakers, David Stern, the mob and Philadelphia, and Tim Donagy and everything going on there. That was real. This is not. This is, I said, if you watch as much football as you and I do, like Will Levis gets these calls. Just no one's really watching that game when there's seven other games.
Starting point is 01:20:59 It's ridiculous. But, you know, when 40 million people are watching Patrick Mahomes, it feels like it's rigged. It's happening to all these quarterbacks. and it infuriates anyone that loves the sport because it's like, no one wants these quarterbacks get injured, but some of these are crazy. The Texas, they ran into each other. They didn't even touch them.
Starting point is 01:21:17 To me, where I get mad, we can talk about Philly now, is like the Jalen Hertz ball where he throws a hospital ball in the history of the league when two safety or corners behind a guy and safety's coming over, that Devante Smith gets ejected or not ejected from the game, but like decleted, destroyed. And it's like, yeah, that's what happens. when you throw that ball. Now, when the ball's in the air, you're like, well, if there's a collision,
Starting point is 01:21:39 they're going to get a free 15 yards, you know, for unnecessary. And that's exactly what happened, even though it's like, you're putting your wide receiver in harm's way. But that's beside the point. Ultimately, the Eagles, you know, I think at this point in time with these four teams, remove the quarterbacks, because the best quarterback in this game is the rookie. Their roster is pretty stupid. I mean, it's pretty freaking good. And it looks like, as we are recording right now, Mitchell, the rookie corner, you feel like he's going to be okay, play? I think so. So, you know, they're relatively healthy.
Starting point is 01:22:13 I guess they're just healthy. Obviously, Sequin looks like, I don't know, Barry Sanders in the open field or Adrian Peterson, and the receivers are sweet. You know, AJ dropped the ball, but his comments after the game, he clearly hates playing in snow. And it's looking at the weather this morning, it's not going to snow. It's going to be cold. But all four of these teams are living, freezing cold places. it's not, now it would have been a big deal to me if it was snowing because of the ability to change direction and run obviously changes for Washington and their quarterback, but if it's just a cold game and the field's fine, then I think, you know, nothing, no issue there for Washington. I think the way I look at this is it's their sexy pick. Everyone's picking them, you know, like rooting for the story. If you do want to bet Washington, I think you just bet them to win the game. I just feel like it kind of, it ends here.
Starting point is 01:23:04 Now, I don't love, like, betting on Philly. It's not like I have a lot of faith. Their quarterback's banged up. He's just been off. But I just think their talent is just too immense. I mean, the talent, you and I did a quick exercise before we hopped on and press record. If you take out Jaden Daniels, how he would trade, he would drive Jalen Hertz to Washington for Jaden Daniels. The Eagles would be unstoppable if that was the case.
Starting point is 01:23:27 I don't know how many starters for Washington would start for the Eagles. The number's probably under two. So, I mean, the talent discrepancy in this game is honestly for an NFC championship game is borderline, like historic. Yeah, we were talking like the worst rosters overall to make the competition. You know, like 2014 Colts came to mind. And by the way, yeah, to fix major sports, you get college. There's another college basketball fixing scandal going on right now, but. Like currently, like happening right now?
Starting point is 01:23:57 Yeah. How much was a kid getting? I don't know. It's in the news. Like, they're just being investigated. There's been like the shady line movement. Did you notice it when you were as a gambler? Yeah, there was, I noticed the weird line.
Starting point is 01:24:09 I wasn't involved. I privy to do it. But yeah, you can Google it. There's some stories out there about it. There's, they're just being, it was flat. Their activity was flagged. But 2002, Kings Lakers, that definitely was fixed. Western Conference Finals.
Starting point is 01:24:26 Tim Donnie, Philly guy, I think Cardinal Ohio guy. That, there was a, I think game six was. was criminal, game five or six. But anyway, and I don't even blame it. It was game five. Game five was the Vladi tip to Ori and then game six was the worst officiated game I've ever seen him all.
Starting point is 01:24:46 I don't even blame my home. Alan Flops too. Like, yeah, they're trying to help their team. I hate that I hate to watch it. It's so bushyly, but hey, you're trying to get an advantage if you're going to get called. It's the rules and that they have to fix. But, yeah, Philly.
Starting point is 01:25:02 Yeah, we said maybe like one or two guys would start on Philly that's Sarfa Washington. So there's a major, major talent gap here and filled out these rosters much better. And Washington, you could argue beside the quarterback, their best players, Terry McClure and two of the best players in the Eagles are the two wide receivers. Yeah. Now, Washington's a high variance team. Like all year, I mean, they went 20 of 23 on fourth down during the regular season, which is completely ridiculous. It doesn't matter. Like, people are like, well, Daniels is different.
Starting point is 01:25:32 and he's mobile. I mean, we've seen great mobile quarterbacks before. Lamar Jackson, Patrick Gahombe. No one is, that's like an unsustainable right.
Starting point is 01:25:42 But it's one game. They could go four for five and fourth down here. I expect them to be aggressive. They're the underdog that's been done all year. They go four for five and fourth down. And they might be right in this game.
Starting point is 01:25:53 That could lead the touchdown. We saw that in Detroit last week. Or, you know, they could go one per five and then you give the ball back to Philly because the worst group the worst unit in this game by far is the Washington defense. We know that everyone can be confident in saying that.
Starting point is 01:26:10 It's hard for me to see them getting stops. Now, the one thing that can help them here is A.J. Brown, I don't think it's 100% like still dealing with a knee issue. Hurt isn't 100%. And the offense just hasn't been firing at all cylinders. It's like Green Bay. Hertz had the lowest success rate of a quarterback that won in the Wildcar round in like 10 years. It was ugly.
Starting point is 01:26:32 their offense didn't do much. And then last week it was Barclay in the snow. It was just, I mean, how do you stop them anyway, but especially in snow? Their offense didn't look right. But I assume Barclay's going to have a big day here.
Starting point is 01:26:49 Will Hertz, you know, one of the angles I like for a prop is Dallas Godter. Over, over yards, I think like 38 and a half, up to like 39 and a half, somewhere right below four.
Starting point is 01:27:02 over three and a half catches as well. This is a guy who shows up in every single postseason game. Since 2019, he's played in eight playoff games. He's cleared three and a half catches in every one. He's averaged 5.1 catches on seven targets for 54 yards. He's got three touchdowns. Median catches in reception six for 57. And what I think is going to happen here, and Washington can't cover tight ends.
Starting point is 01:27:27 They're 26 in the league adjusted for opponent. And they didn't face the Eagles with Goddard one game. They didn't face the Cowboys with Ferguson. They didn't face the Cardinals with McBride. Nijoku got hurt early against the Browns. And they were still 26. And they faced a handful of backup quarterbacks. Hurt says the highest scramble rate in the league.
Starting point is 01:27:47 Dealing with a knee injury. Design runs, I think, are going to be out the window. I don't think he's going to scramble as much. Washington does like the Blitz. So what does that mean? I think it's a lot of, a lot more. more quick passes to Goddard. So like a banged up.
Starting point is 01:28:04 And if you're Washington, you have to say, look, our defense isn't great. San Jose championship game. Hertz kind of banged up. Their passing attack hasn't been great. Aegee Brown might not be 100%. We have Latimore. You have to say we have to stop Barkley. Like, it doesn't matter if you get burnt deep.
Starting point is 01:28:25 Like, you got to say Hertz beat us through the air. You're not even that mobile. We're going to come after you. we're going to load the box, we've got to stop Barkley. You have to do that if you're watching it. So I think that's going to open up some quick passes to Goddard, maybe some screens against, we saw a screen that got called back for the legal man down field where Goddard had a big game as well.
Starting point is 01:28:41 So I think that, you know, since Goddard came back, he's looked really good. Past six games, he's averaged four catches on five targets for about 46 yards, had eight on 10 catches for 103 yards this postseason and had that screen called back. in middle of the field, Washington second worst in the league at defending the middle of the field. The bills are the third worst. The worst was the Panthers.
Starting point is 01:29:06 So I think the tight ends for both the Eagles and the Chiefs could have big days because both the bills and the commanders really struggle to defend over the middle of the field. So I like some Goddard over props. But I think it'll probably come down to like the side and the total how successful is Washington on these four downs. because I have to give a lot of credit to Daniels. Like it kind of reminds me in a way of Flacco. It's a completely different player. But when Flacco is, you got to go back to the
Starting point is 01:29:35 Ravens when he was like a really young player. They, he was, they called him Joe, January Joe, Joe, Joe, cool. Like, he just looked like he was never phased. He would just sit on the sidelines, like being against Brady. Then he'd go in and lead a touchdown drive.
Starting point is 01:29:52 Daniels looks completely unbothered. By the way, at home teams, won every playoff game, except the commanders who have won two road games, with a rookie quarterback, which never happens. And in both games, he hasn't made any mistakes and the veteran quarterbacks have. I mean, the poise of the game. And you're right, those ravenous teams were good, right? I mean, when he first showed up, I mean, they had some serious talent on the team, right? Yeah. Those teams, you put Jaden Daniels on those teams. I mean, shit, they might have like three Super Bowls. Yeah. The way he's playing. Not comparing you to as far as the talent. I know what you're,
Starting point is 01:30:23 I know what you're saying, his body language and how that's just Joe's personality and this guy's personal. A lot of quarterbacks get, you watch Patrick and Josh, they get amped up, you know? Yeah. Yeah, so the poise of Daniels have been super impressive. He hasn't made a mistake in two games. But, yeah, I mean, I ultimately, I see Philadelphia winning this game. I just think the Washington defense won't hold up. How do you make up for that, though?
Starting point is 01:30:45 Create variance. And that's four downs. That's being aggressive. And then, you know, if Hertz isn't 100% healthy in this, and Washington just loads the box and Hurts, in this passing attack can't get going. You know, you get a turnover or two. Then all of a sudden you're lying. You get a couple four downs, all the pressures on Philly.
Starting point is 01:31:04 But this will be a tall order for Washington. It's also their fourth straight road game, which is not easy. Historically, it seems have not fared well in this spot. But hell of a job by Dan Quinn and obviously Daniels to get this roster, which just is void of talent across the board compared to, I mean, look at the other teams that are remaining. So they can come in and play loose, though. They have that feel of the team that's just any,
Starting point is 01:31:37 for a little underdog, I mean, how many little underdogs? I mean, they're going to the NFC, they have 14 wins on the season. I know we can nitpick the wins, but still, that's a shitload of wins. I mean, it's not like they were some eight-win team that got in on a bad division or a bad conference on a given year. I mean, they won 12 games, and then obviously they've won two straight games in pretty impressive fashion.
Starting point is 01:32:00 I mean, I thought the Bucks win was really impressive. Obviously, they went in the Lions game to kick ass and take names. I mean, they were not intimidated. Now, granted, the Lions missing a million defenders, but I think I heard Scott Van Pelt say that the teams that have won so far in the playoffs have three total turnovers and the teams that have lost of 21. So it's like sometimes we overcomplicated,
Starting point is 01:32:22 like you said, the variance, like if one of these quarterbacks is bound to happen, and hell, it could be Mahomes or Allen, has a game where they fumble or throw a pick in an inopportune time in the third quarter, and that leads to a touchdown. I mean, if the final scores are in the high teens or low 20s, that's the difference right there. Yep. Yeah, or just a big fumble like we saw with Andrews last week. Oh. How about the Rams? What's Kearwin Williams? I had a big fumble. I was devastating.
Starting point is 01:32:50 Yeah, he has. he's got to clean up that bumble issue but the I will say for the commanders I think it helps that like we've seen Daniels be poised but I mean it did help to play it Tampa's not a tough place to play and they already played in Tampa earlier this season
Starting point is 01:33:05 Detroit like they were they were down you know 13 of their 13 guys and they're too deep on defense they've been poised going to a championship game is a different animal but it's a divisional game like I think that helps them in some sense
Starting point is 01:33:20 Like they've already played in Philly. They played Philly twice. And they did for all anyone wants to say about, look, Philly is about to blow them out. Hurt's got hurt. Pickett came in. They still put up 36 on the Eagles defense. Like if the offense had injuries,
Starting point is 01:33:37 so they don't have confidence here. It's just that their defense by far is the worst unit on the field, which will probably be the difference if there's just normal fourth down and turnover variance. but the commanders can make this really interesting by staying aggressive, which they've done all year and continuing to be successful in fourth downs. You were born and raised in Philly, right? Yep. Right on the suburbs of Philly.
Starting point is 01:34:01 Yeah, but I mean, 20 minutes outside of. You're a Philly guy. Do you think it is possible if they are upset, and the guy that owns the Philadelphia 76ers is hosting the NFC trophy at the link, having just taken down the Eagles team. I don't know how that guy could. And the Sixers are a complete joke, falling apart, the laughing stock of the city,
Starting point is 01:34:25 and you ruin the heart and joy and the soul of the city, their team, the birds. And especially, it's like, he took over a divisional team who also had sucked forever. The Eagles ever even thought about the commanders. It wasn't a rivalry.
Starting point is 01:34:40 They just played them. Even if they beat them every once. It was like, whatever. It was like a random loss. Can you envision that guy holding that trophy? up. I think he'd have to sell the Sixers. I really do. I don't think he could, I think this week's got to be weird for him. Showing up to the stadium's got to be weird. He owns the fucking Sixers. I mean, it's, this is, I mean, got to be, I haven't lived in every city, but top two or three
Starting point is 01:35:03 sports city in America. And now this guy is challenging the birds. I mean, I live there for a couple years, man. I just don't think that's going to fly. They lose whatever. Yeah, go. And they win, and he's holding that trophy. Because who's usually the first. I live there. I live there's usually the first to get it. Who's usually the first to get interviewed? He's standing right there, Dan Quinn, Jane Daniels, and Josh Harris. Yeah, that just made this game a lot more interesting. I didn't even
Starting point is 01:35:27 think of that angle. That's amazing. He'd get booed at every sixer game he went to the rest of his life, right? Oh, yeah. Yeah, I remember it would bring, the Eagles had good luck for good success in NFC championship
Starting point is 01:35:43 games later. I think they've won two straight at home. But early to mid-two, thousands they were losing a bunch. They lost the bucks. I remember one game where everyone thought they were going to win. Ronde Barber, I think, had a pick six on McNabb. Wasn't the final score in that game like 12 to 7 or something? There was a low scoring game. One of those to the bucks. I think the bucks won like 2410 or something. Like it was close and then
Starting point is 01:36:07 they were, Eagles are driving the Bronte Barber at a pick six. They lost to the Panthers and Jake the Lone, I think. Like 10, 3, 12, 3. something like that. And I think that was the year after the buck scheme. I don't know. I get them all confused. Yeah, it would have been.
Starting point is 01:36:27 Gruden went before the Panthers went. Yeah. So, yeah, and then you throw in Harris angle. Yeah, there's not going to be a lot of happy people. I will say I'm rooting for. They've had their last two NFC championship games have been pretty sweat-free. I mean, they beat the shit. shit out of Minnesota the year with
Starting point is 01:36:49 Foles. And then Purdy's arm fell off. The first drive they didn't have a quarterback. That game was a joke. So it's like they have not sweated at all. Like even this playoff's been a little interesting. Those two championship games
Starting point is 01:37:05 are as easy of a championship games you can ever have. Yeah, the San Francisco game was a joke. Minnesota game was like a party after like two drives. Like, oh my God. Yeah, that was, I think that was like 40 to seven. That, yeah, I'm personally rooting. So, like, if I had a outside of my bets,
Starting point is 01:37:28 I haven't been on either of these games sidewise. I think for the best Super Bowl, I'm personally, I'm personally rooting for Bills, Eagles. The reason that I'm rooting for the Bills is because what do I do for two? after conference championship weekend we have two weeks one football game left and i will do my podcast i will write about them i will do shows i'll do shows like this i got to talk about one game for two weeks i'm tired of talking about the chiefs in the super bowl um so personally that's uh i would
Starting point is 01:38:09 like some fresh blood but i'm sure the NFL wouldn't mind uh the chiefs back there because they're they're polarizing now, which is what you want from a league perspective. People hate them. People love them. They get all the eyeballs. So they're becoming like the Yankees or the Lakers. Who would ever thought Kansas City is becoming this big bad brand that people can't stand? Yeah, the villain role with this lovable, Andy Reed can never be the villain.
Starting point is 01:38:36 But they're becoming like the villain in the league. So just personally, I'd like that. And I think Eagles chiefs, I really don't want. want. It was already a Super Bowl recently. But it's pretty crazy that we've had 15 straight AFC championship games with Brady or Mahomes in a wild. That's pretty nuts. Well, Stucky, I will, who are you for, by the way, before you go? You know, I think the Washington story's is really cool, but like I want a good game in the Super Bowl. And to me, the Eagles, like, I can't Washington winning the Super Bowl, the Eagles can win the Super Bowl.
Starting point is 01:39:18 And even if the Eagles lose, like, they can play you really fucking tight. And they are just loaded. So to me, it's got to be the Eagles. And I just think the bills, like the story of the franchise, you know, Sean McDermott's just, he's just a good guy. He works his ass off. He kind of doesn't get talked about, like, a lot of coaches that he wins like. And it would just be one of those, like, can everyone just look back at his resume? He's been going to the playoffs.
Starting point is 01:39:44 This is the rivalry, too. Like, this is the Manning Brady. This is the fourth time they've played in five years, right? Second time in the championship game. He's really played him well, right? It's like, I mean, they literally had to beat one year, obviously. So I think that'd be pretty cool. I wouldn't complain for Chiefs.
Starting point is 01:40:03 Like, it doesn't bother me as much. I just know a lot of guys on the staff, so it's like that, that'd be cool, too. I don't think we can lose with the AFC game. You know, because like you said, I think everyone, would complain so much for the chiefs. Everyone has an opinion on the chiefs, and that's ultimately what you want, especially in our business, people care. I do think it's very important for the Eagles to be there to get a good game.
Starting point is 01:40:25 The weeks leading up would be fine and cool and be fun to talk about, but I can see a game where it's like they just lost 35, you know, lost by 15, 20 points. Yeah, the commander's defense against Allen or Mahomes. Probably not could end well. So I, as we sit here right now, I think we get Bill's Eagle. I mean, obviously, I don't feel great about the bills, but I think I'd be, the team that has the most pressure by a mile. Like, ultimately, if the bills lose the chiefs, it's like, yeah, everyone's lost to the chiefs. If the chiefs finally lose, like, big deal, Belichick and Brady lost a lot, too.
Starting point is 01:41:02 If the Eagles were to lose, you know that city, man, people would, it's weird because it's not like, I bet if you went to in Philadelphia right now, a lot of Eagles fans, it's not like they're cocky thinking they're a lock for the Super Bowl. They're probably a little nervous. This feels a little weird for how good they are, right? Yeah, yeah. That's what makes these two games, it should be, hopefully we get, I mean, like we were rooted for last week, and it turned out that way.
Starting point is 01:41:27 Just give me some good entertainment. Agreed. Okay, I'll talk to you soon, buddy. All right, brother, enjoy your weekend. I'll talk to talk Super Bowl next. The volume. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers.
Starting point is 01:41:46 I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own. podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.
Starting point is 01:41:54 We just contributed to it. We get to ask other people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite.
Starting point is 01:42:17 Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.
Starting point is 01:42:36 Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where SportsSlice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports
Starting point is 01:42:57 and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to SportsSlic on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok.
Starting point is 01:43:18 I'm Michelle McPhee, and I've been unraveling the strangest criminal alliance I've ever reported on, a Mormon polygamist and an Armenian businessman. Multi-million dollar house, Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, a billion dollar fraud. But how long can this alliance last? Tell me what you know. Is somebody coming after me? Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an I-Heart podcast.
Starting point is 01:43:51 Guaranteed human.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.