The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 & Out - Matthew Stafford & the Rams out-duel Brock Purdy & San Francisco 49ers on TNF

Episode Date: December 13, 2024

John Middlekauff is back reacting to the Los Angeles Rams surviving a tough divisional battle against Kyle Shanahan, Brock Purdy and a thin San Francisco 49ers team by a score of 12-6 on Thursday Night Football. John goes off on the sliding San Francisco 49ers and explains why Kyle Shanahan’s belief in QB Brock Purdy seems to be coming back to bite him, and declares the Niners season officially over. Then, Middlekauff goes in on the Niners disaster of a season including Kyle Shanahan’s questionable play calling, Brock Purdy’s recent struggles and Deebo Samuel looking like a below-average wide receiver as the perennial powerhouse 49ers continue to get worse and worse as the season unfolds. Then, Middlekauff salutes Matthew Stafford’s grit in a hard-fought win and explains why his upside works for his huge contract as the Los Angeles Rams make a late-season push for the NFL playoffs. John then looks ahead to the looming divisional battle between the Seattle Seahawks and the Los Angeles Rams as we get down to the wire in a tight race for the NFC West crown. After, Middlekauff unpacks Bill Belichick joining the North Carolina Tar Heels as their head coach and explains why, after his introductory press conference, the media is getting the 7x Super Bowl champion’s hire all wrong. Then, John’s thoughts on Bill Belichick’s dominant legacy, authenticity in sports and how it impacts being an athletic figure in 2024. Finally, another edition of Fugazi Friday. Lastly, John is joined by The Action Network's betting guru Stuckey to talk about the weekend's best bets.. 6:00 - Thursday Night Football Reaction 32:56 - Belichick Presser 50:56 - Stuckey Interview Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest. Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Because their season's over. They lose to the Rams at home with their season on the line 12 to 6. If you watched every snap like I did, and probably millions of people did, props to you. That was a old-fashioned West Coast rain game where no one could do anything until they kind of could,

at least a field goal kickers, and Brock Purdy, I don't even know what that pass was, but that was a pretty devastating moment for Brock. And rough night for just the 49ers offense, which is just embarrassing. It's pretty bad. Big win for the Rams, who now, you know, the schedule opens up.

The Jets, the Cardinals, end with Seattle. I think we're looking at a playoff team. So Stafford and the Rams looking good. Ninear season ends. So we will dive into that game. Do want to piggyback on some stuff with Belichick and North Carolina. Watch the press commerce today. A lot going on.

Yeah, just want to hit on some Belichick stuff. It's Fugazi Friday. I don't even know if this technically a Fugazi, but just give a little story about something I've never really utilized and found it during Christmas time. I was kind of blown away. Other than that, we will have Stucky join us as well. Talk a lot of college football, actually,

because the Army Navy game and then some NFL games. We got, you know, the Eagle Steelers, Steelers are a big dog in that game. We got the Bills. Who are the Bills playing again? Oh, Bill's Lions. Bill's Lions That's a good game

So we got some good games this weekend Pretty excited So Stuck you will join us Talk some gambling as we do every week And yeah Other than that Subscribe to Three Now podcast We had some separate content

Go up for when the story broke About Belichick And I will have a A mailbag out Probably Saturday Because I got a ton of mailbag questions So yeah You guys know the drill

You know before we do I actually knew lot of people at this game and I have a lot of respect you know I love love football but you'd be hard pressed to get me season ticket holder if I had bought tickets to attend that game so some people like it i had a bunch of buddies on instagram I can see that we're there if you want to go to one of these games one thing with playoff football depending on where you are if you want to go to one of these playoff games if you want to go to one of these college playoff games uh put on a jacket or two and enjoy it. I mean, it's big time football.

Obviously, concerts, comedy shows, my partners, my friends, and the official ticketing app of this podcast, they have you covered. What's right around the corner? Hanukkah, Christmas. You want to get a gift for anyone in your family. You want to brighten up their day. Get them a pair of tickets. It's an easy gift.

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the season officially ended for the 49ers they fall to six and eight and as amazon had up there on the screen they now have less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs and i you don't need a statistical breakdown. Not only are they not making the playoffs, it's time to start resting guys and the season is over, and that was a devastating loss. To lose a game with your season on the line after bouncing back like that at home, which is a massive advantage on Thursday late in the season. When you get to play, these Thursday night games suck in November and December, especially for teams. Like this is the Niners' second Thursday game. So it's difficult whether you've played multiple Thursday games, whether it's your first Thursday game late in the season.

But having the home game is such a big advantage. Obviously the Rams don't have to go far. It's a 45, 50 minute flight. But still, you don't have to get on a plane. You get to sleep in your own bed or the hotel bed you're used to sleeping in at home games and to score six points. And I'm sorry. Like, I've really defended this guy because I've been so impressed over the last couple

years. We just talked on yesterday's podcast about his leadership and what he represents for the team and the way the team views him, how Kyle had him speak to the team. But part of Brock Purdy's game, part of what made him, you know, in the eyes of Kyle, a special player, was decision-making. Like, he's not some dynamic player with his arm, right? He does not have a huge arm. Tonight, I saw one of Simmons guys on the ringer tweeted out, Solac, I think his name is,

that Brock Purdy on 20-yard throws was 0 of 7. with an interception. And several of those throws are underthrown. He underthrows a lot of deep balls. Why? He doesn't have a big arm. Well, I can live with that if you are an elite decision maker. Right.

And that for a long time when the Niners were kicking ass was a huge part of his arsenal, was making the right decisions, was not putting the ball in harm's way. It was like, God, this guy can become like, you know, an athletic version of, I don't know. You know, his comp was when he was playing really well,

like Drew Brees. And then you watch tonight, you're like, what was that? Five minutes left to go in the game. Your season's on the line. It's nine to six. It is nine to six. To put that ball down the sideline

and overthrow him by that much, when there are several guys, they showed the still shot, there's definitely a guy in the middle of the field wide open for a checkdown. That at minimum gets some six or seven yards. Again, it was a small. second down. They're at the 33 yard line. So if you get six or seven yards, you cross that

30 yard line, another three or four yards, you either get the first down or you're in field goal range. And Moody, you know, who would have thought is just drilling field goals. So at worst, you're tying the game. At best, you know, in a couple, in a play, you get a first down and keep the chains moving. And he had done that on that drive. He had made a great throw to Ricky Pearsall for a first down. He had made a good throw to George Kittle when they isolated him in the slot for a first down. And to make that throw, it's like, I don't even know. That's something like James would do.

That's something a bottom three or four quarterback makes. In that spot, in that position, on December 12th, when your season hinges on these last five minutes. And everyone knows it. Everyone in the stadium. Everyone on the 49er sideline. Like, this is their season. This wasn't necessarily the RAM season,

though it was a massive game. That was their season. And for him to make that throw, it's really, it's not even, I can't even explain it, but here's where I can't explain. If I can't trust you to make the right decision with the package you bring to the table, we got a major problem. And tonight's not all on him. They also needed, I don't know, their $20 million wide receiver who's tweeting, get me the ball.

And then this week with the media is like standing by his tweets, like, okay, Debo, people want to like you. People have been rooting for you for a long time. They don't want to call you slow. But you're just not making any plays. And then you finally get a play schemed up, and one of Purdy's good passes tonight, he hit you in stride and you drop it. Which three years ago, with the room you have in the open field, especially against this team where you've scored a ton of

touchdowns in the past, you take it to the crib. But then he drops it and runs the sideline, and kind of that encapsulates his season, which has been an epic disaster. And for some reason, and listen, I respect, you know, guys having good relationships, but

forcing the ball as Brock was doing to Debo Samuel the night, you know, like he's Jerry Rice or Justin Jefferson or Randy Moss. Get better Randy by the way. It's just, it can't happen. You know, and part of that, like, listen, like that's a, that's one of those losses,

and that's one of those decisions by Brock. Like, I'm sorry. Like, I get it, Kyle, you really like him, but and the 49ers, Jed is not some meddling owner. But before we cut in a huge check this offseason, like, we've got to have some real conversations. And this is where I've been saying for a long time, like, I'm not one of these people

that talk about football that's anti-Brock Purdy. But there is no excusing or defending that throw. Because what he, like we all, whatever we do in life professionally, we're all good at a couple things. And you've got to lean into them, right? And the more competitive, whatever business you're in, it's very, very important that you like master those things.

Well, he's never going to have some rocket arm like Herbert or Josh Allen. So these deep bombs, Ricky Pearsall smokes would be strong, beats Akella Weatherspoon on the post. He's open. Herbert or Allen or Mahomes, if they're missing them, they're missing them deep.

Purdy underthrows it. Akella Weatherspoon, you know, makes a good play in the air. You know, the Niners once upon drafted who's gone on to have a pretty good career. I don't know if you get credit for drafting a guy, then cutting a guy, then having him go on to have success.

But either way, like, that's a bad throw. there was another throw to Purdy or I mean to Debo down the middle of the field that's just kind of in traffic and you could say Debo should have caught it which I don't know how you could say and that also gets on to Kyle

and this gets back to what Jay Gruden who came on our podcast had said his passing game is not great you study his run game which then his play action passing game is interconnected which is awesome but when he has to just spread you out and throw because they weren't going to really run it on the ramps tonight.

Trent Williams is upstairs in a suite, and when they finally showed the right Trent Williams, he had a scooter next to him. So we might not see Trent Williams the rest of the season. He's got a bad injury, and he's got a scooter to get around. That's a big problem. So their offensive line is not going to be able to road grade

on the left side where over the last couple years, when they were in a pinch, you know what they would do? they would put kiddle, they would put use check, and they would hammer it home, regardless who was the running back. And no matter what, they would gain yards. A lot like the Rams do. When shit hits the fan, they lean what they do well, which like we said, is what you've got

to lean into. Purdy, what does he do well? In theory, decision making. What do the Niners do well? When Trent, run left. What do the Detroit Lions do? Run right behind Panais Sewell. And tonight, they couldn't really do that.

And the one thing the Rams do have, and I talked to a couple of buddies. I talked to one that like scrimmage their defensive line in, in August, in a joint practice. I talked to an advanced scout who study them. Like they are a violent physical group. Verse is good, right? The other two guys that got in the middle make plays and are physical. So the night, like the run game's not going to work.

So what, what they have to do? Kind of spread it out. Which I'm not opposed to, right? And part of spreading it out, you got a quick decision making, a quarterback, and Kyle's scheme guys open. And a couple times they did. but for the most part, like Kyle's just calling slants to Debo. Like Kyle, that play is not working.

Might have worked for him in South Carolina. It might have worked for him early in his career. It was not working tonight. Wasn't even completely remotely close to being open. Like there was no separation. And then they interview him at halftime. I love it too when the broadcaster's like, thanks for the interview or they go back up to the booth and like Al,

we'll be like, we appreciate Kyle's time. Like, guys, they pass rules. He's not like just volunteering his time. He's contractually obligated now. So he's forced to do that. But then he's saying, you know, like, we got to make some of these tough catches. Kyle, none of these guys are open.

You're running basic routes and you guys can't get open for whatever reason. You got a $20 million, you know, wide receiver who's not playing well. I have a hard time being critical of Ricky Pirsall because he got shot on fucking Market Street and 99 out of 100 people die. But, like, once he starts playing,

I mean, clearly looks pretty good physically. It's just, he's just not really. in the mix, you know, Joanne Jennings. And here's the other thing. And this is where I've not defended Miami, but I have just put it into context. Like, how can anyone expect Miami in 80 degree weather to go on the road to Pittsburgh, to Kansas City, to Buffalo, and any of these cold

weather environments and have the Green Bay on Thanksgiving? They're going to lose. There is no way to prepare for that. You saw tonight, two teams. Now, Northern California is much cold. and typically wetter than L.A., but still, it's cold. Like, Sean McVeigh ain't that cold. He didn't even change a sweatshirt.

I mean, you talk about the ultimate football guy move? He wore a sweatshirt in the rain, which you learn when you're like six by your parents, not a smart move. And if you are, once you come inside, to go back outside, you change it? He didn't change it. Ultimate football guy move.

I was actually shocked because I was like, I bet he changed it. He didn't. He came out. He's still soaking wet. But I just, I don't get it. I really don't. I'm kind of at a loss.

And the purdy question, people that question, you know, his status in the game, obviously he's got a lot of disbelievers. Like, they're going to be feeling pretty good about their stake where they stand on their position because it is transitioned back to them. And when you make a decision like that,

like I just, I can't take you as seriously as like this huge franchise quarterback that can carry my team because that's what I need, you to hang your hat on. And this is now, like, you've been starting for a long time. And this is a game, just like any football game. We talk a lot about spots and games. Like, this is a game, like, you didn't even need a touchdown.

Like a field goal right there, 9-9, maybe get a stop and maybe get a game-winning field goal, win the game 12 to 9. But your final pass cannot be a pass as interception when the guy falls in the end zone. That just cannot happen. So tonight for Kyle, for Purdy, just a devastating night. And it's just a devastating season. And it has been completely off from the jump with McCaffrey's preseason and his Achilles injuries from the IUC holdout who shatters his leg to Debo falling off a cliff to the other

injuries that have propped up to even the night encapsulated the 49ers season. Drey Greenlaw, who early in the game, you think, you know, if Drey Greenlaw wouldn't have tore his Achilles in the Super Bowl, do the 49ers win? Because I forget the exact time of that game that he tore. I think it was the first half. He looked like Ray Lewis. And then you're watching him night, you're like,

Drey Greenlaw's a badass. Just cracking people. They had no run game. They were dominating the line of scrimmage. And it wasn't just because of Fred Warn. It was Drey Greenlaw, who was a certified ass kicker. and then off basically a 10-month recovery process for Achilles, he clearly pulls his calf for something and can't come back in the game.

And what happens when he disappears? They start getting shredded by Kiran Williams, who's a good player? But he just starts gashing him. And the first half, back to the West Coast thing, there were more punts 11 than first downs total. Both teams. Nine total first downs, 11 punts.

Stafford had like four completions in 20 yards. The Rams are trying to give you the game, but the Niners can't do anything anyway because they can't operate. Balls are coming out of their hands, dropping balls, slipping all over the place. It's like, I get it's raining, but holy moly, this can't be the case.

And I get it, you're in your third running back, your star left tackles out, but just kind of a shitty way to go out and unofficially end your season. because six points at home, six points at home against the ramps. I just, I'm honestly kind of speechless. I really am. And McVeigh's got to be thinking, if I would have told Sean McVeigh,

today at lunch, wherever they were staying, probably like the Marriott by the airport, you know, we're having a sandwich. He's probably eating, you know, lettuce and grilled chicken and a side of something really healthy, the opposite of anything I'd eat. But you're going to score, 12 points tonight. Like I know that for a fact. What do you think he'd tell me? He's like,

we're probably going to, we're going to lose. We'd be in trouble. I'd be like, no, actually you're going to score 12 points and kind of win easily. Like, you're going to get the ball back five minutes left to go and never give it back. Technically you did at the, you know, with 20 seconds left, but you kind of cruise, you know, and it's crazy. And it just gets back to, I have to be able to depend on you. We talk about this a lot with these quarterbacks. Right. There's that group at the that are so much better than everyone else. It's not even funny. Then there's the next group,

six to 12 or 13. And they all do specific things pretty well. And the group Purdy's in, like a huge part of Dak Prescott, who, you know, Purdy, one of his comps, not like his comp physically or whatever, but like that was the world he was going to play in. When does Dak get in trouble?

When he throws the ball to the other team, you can't turn the ball over. I need you to be like a gay manager on steroids. And like Stafford. I can live with some picks. Because at any moment, that fucker can uncork a 50-yard bomb. At any moment. Like, he ain't going to underthrow many balls if he's not getting peppered.

Because he has one of the great arms we've ever seen. Pretty doesn't. So he's going to have to rely on his head, on his smarts, on playing like Drew Breeze, like an Alex Smith. You know, not just good, but Steve Young, like control the ball. And that throw, that's a tough one. man, it really is. And back to the Rams,

you know, I give him a little pass, you know, Stafford was all over the map in the rain in the first half. I saw a stat on Twitter at halftime that Stafford is 220 career starts in his career. 220 starts.

Eight of those 220 games at kickoff, it's been raining. And you're like, How is that possible? And then you start thinking, well, he's basically played his entire career at home in a dome in Detroit and in L.A.

Obviously, playing for the Rams the last three or four years, plays the Niners, plays the Cardinals. Depending on the time of the year, Seattle, it might not rain. He's just playing a lot of good weather games. It's a little shocking. I mean, I would have bet five or six of those include Green Bay, or Chicago, but also played a lot of games in Minnesota. So it's not like he's Mr. Dynamic in the weather,

but he made a huge throw in the second half to Puka Nakua. He made another huge throw with the game on the line on third down that essentially iced the game. And he came through. And it's like, this is my whole thing with paying a guy. I'm not anti-Tua. I'm just anti-Tua at a price point. if you told me Tua is making

Cousins contract or a Daniel Jones contract where it's essentially a two-year deal totally get it and there's value there but once we start talking this huge money I need huge upside if I'm not getting the huge upside I have a hard time because at the end of the day I am

going to run into Mahomes Lamar Herbert like that's going to happen and you've seen it with DAC they've paid him huge money and at times it's been tough on them to build a team and I think it's fair to say like Purdy without some weapons

once you pay them over the course just wouldn't be good enough. It's why I've maintained the position as this year's kind of gone up and down, play it out. Like I'm not in any rush unless he'll sign like a Daniel Jones contract to make a huge payment this offseason.

And it's games like today and it goes back last year, remember, on Christmas Eve against the Ravens where it's like, I don't know, man. I just, I struggle with the economics of it. And tonight, That throw is unconscionable. I'm just, I'm really, really kind of speechless.

And now the Rams, they're going to be a team that, listen, they play the Jets, which I'm going to give them a win on that one. They play the Cardinals at home, which you never know what the Cardinals by then their season could kind of be over. I'm going to give them a win there. There's a decent chance week 18 at SoFi Stadium against Seattle. is potentially win for the division. And depending on how it plays out for Washington now,

I mean, there is a chance that Seattle and the Rams both make the playoffs. One is a wild card. We'll have to see how Washington looks this weekend. But I don't think it's inconceivable that just the Rams win out. And all of a sudden they would have a lot of momentum. They have a Super Bowl winning coach. They have a very, very violent defensive front. They have a Super Bowl winning quarterback who, when he's on,

which obviously for the first half he definitely was not but you know can go toe to toe with anyone and if they were to win the division they're getting a home game so if they won the division they probably at you know at 11 and 6 they would be the three seed well they probably play the packers then and i think both seattle or the rams at the three seed you know to get that spot and win that division they would be playing pretty good football would feel pretty confident in that matchup that that'd be a really good first round game. And then if you win that, like, who knows? Like they, stuff that they can do translates.

They can rush the passer. I know they got gashed against the Eagles, but that run defense tonight was pretty good. They, some of their, I mean, their DBs make plays. They have a run game. I mean, really, they got multiple running backs. Blake Korn doesn't play that much because Williams is a really good player,

but I'd feel pretty good if he was my second running back. And Puka, Nakula is just one of the better players in the NFL. And, you know, Cooper Cup didn't even do anything tonight. And it's like, he's pretty reliable. He's been through the ringer. Like, you feel comfortable having him in big games. So nice win for the Rams on the road. That's back-to-back wins. You got to be feeling good against, you know, in a four-day span against the bills and the 49ers. I think the Rams right now should have a lot of confidence, even if the final score tonight was pretty bad. And a lot of people are going to be like, that's the worst game I've ever seen, which, listen, it wasn't a great

television product. Still, it's like if you're complaining about it, like, okay, turn on you know, turn on the kings playing the pelicans. I dare you. I bet you won't. And you probably didn't. I see a lot of people on social media like, this game sucks. I can't believe it.

It's like, well, you're watching it. I'm not trying to defend it. But like, what's the point of complaining about it? It's happening. Nothing we can do. We're kind of stuck. But the Rams, 12-6, get a win. So I don't really have anything else to say.

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one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, people could call in and say, hey, Jonas.

And then I wrote down on my little Notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo.

Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them.

Listen to SportsSlic on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Jacob Kingston grew up in an isolated polygamous sect. We were God's chosen kingdom on earth. He felt destined for greatness. So when a swaggering Armenian businessman catapults Jacob into an extraordinary world, he doesn't look back. Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, meeting the president. of Turkey. I'm Michelle McPhee, and this is one of the most shocking criminal conspiracies I've

ever come across. When Jacob met Levin this went to a billion dollar fraud. But with two kings from entirely different worlds, just how long can their empire survive? The largest tax investigation in American history. You need to tell me what you know. Is somebody coming after me? Jacob told Levan, you're ruining my life. Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, North Carolina bell check. I have seen so many takes. Let's start with the college people.

Because I've actually seen a lot of college people. I would say talk down on this hire. And I want to start with this. If you were North Carolina, one, you're not stealing like Kirby Smart, right? you're not stealing Lane Kiffin, like established Dan Lannin, established college guys that you know plug and play can dominate, right?

It's not happening. This is by far the best hire you can make. One, it's one of the best football coaches in the history of the sport. Two, the name recognition, the buzz it brings your program is Dion like. Like, there is no way you could have paid me

to watch a 45 minutes, at UNC introductory press conference with 99% of the other people that they would have hired. No one would have cared. Matt Campbell, the dude from Kansas, whatever. No one would have cared.

Everyone in the world of football, high school, pro college, paid attention today because they hired Bill Belichick. And in the pros, winning the press conference is irrelevant. It does not matter. Obviously, when you have a Jim Tom Sula

press conference, it can be a problem. Siriani had an awful press conference, won a lot of games. Everyone thought Dan Campbell was the village idiot. Looks like he turned out okay. We've seen a lot of guys like, God, really impressive in the press conference. Who cares?

It does not matter in the NFL. In college, that shit does matter. It really does. Belichick had his general manager, Mike Lombardi, on Pat McAfee today. So he basically has two spokesmen, himself and Mike, who is a trained media podcast guy, who can speak for the press.

program. And they got serious outlets to put out their message. So like the value North Carolina got today, whatever they're paying Belichick, they couldn't have paid for that and what they're going to get over the course of this offseason, what he brings to the table just from Belichick, North Carolina. He dropped the line today. Like, yeah, I talk, you always talking like, I talked to Julius Peppers. I talked to Lawrence Taylor, which when you're a football guy, older guy, that's not that weird. Right. Obviously, coach Lawrence, Julius Peppers was there. And then he just casually like, yeah, I spoke with Mike.

He means Michael Jordan, who I would imagine him and Bill have known each other for a long time. So that stuff matters in college. Today mattered at North Carolina. And they should be, if I was a North Carolina fan, a static. So all these people nitpicking, well, how's it going to do? Guys, they're six and six. They've been kind of irrelevant besides some draft picks here and there.

Like, this hire is a no-brainer from their standpoint. point. Another conversation I've heard, his legacy, right? Well, here is a reality. If Bill had never coached again, if he had just gone back and forth between Nantucket and Jupiter, Florida with his 24-year-old girlfriend, and just ridden off into the sunset, and just enjoyed watching the sun coach and just chilled. And it never, ever stood on a sideline the rest of his life. His legacy in the way we talked about him as a guy with six Super Bowls and, you know, the, the, you know, the, you patriarch of, you know, one of the greatest, if not the greatest dynasty of my lifetime, would never be changed.

And if he loses at North Carolina, like, let's just say it's possible if this doesn't go well. I'm betting on him having success. I think they will win. If he stays there for four years, I'd be stunned if he's not, you know, a playoff coach, especially when you factor in his conference. But if it doesn't go well and it just kind of flames out, out, and this is the end of Bill Belichick, it will also not

phase his legacy. Vince Lombardi coached the Redskins after the Packers. Because I was thinking about this the other day. Like when I was a kid, like who were prominent sports people that were basically

dead, already gone, like not part of my life for the last 20, 30 years as I was growing up becoming a sports fan? Vince Lombardi, long gone. you close your eyes, you picture Vince Lombardi, drawn that sweep for the Green Bay Packers. Bear Bryant.

I don't even think I've ever heard him say a word. Long gone. John Wooden, same thing. Now, he passed away in 2010. But Bill Walsh, right? He died, I think, when I was in high school. You know, Bill Walsh, after he retired, quit, resigned from the 49ers in, I think it was 1988.

They actually won the Super Bowl the next year with George Sefer. I think most people view Bill Walsh as winning five Super Bowls, definitely four. George Sefer won a couple. Bill called her quits after 88. Then he coached Stanford where they didn't have any success.

Bill Walsh and Vince Lombardi, we hold to esteem like you would talk about business legends like Bezos or Warren Buffett or just like famous people in America. And we never talk about how their career ended. I bet if you

pulled most people like under 50 that obviously if they follow sports, no Vince Lombardi, they would have no clue that his career didn't end after the Packers. Definitely most younger people that if you follow football hear Bill Walsh's name a lot, you would not know that he coached Stanford in the early

90s. So I think this risk for Bill isn't that crazy. He actually doesn't have that much to lose. But he actually has something to gain. Because there's a short list of coaches

who have done both successfully and one at all. I think Jim Harbaugh will be added to the list. Barry Switzer, Pete Carroll, and Jimmy Johnson. Now, Pete Carroll was at USC, Barry Switzer was at Oklahoma, and Jimmy Johnson was at Miami.

Those are powerhouses forever. And those are places when you get the job and you do it right, everyone agrees you can win a national championship. They don't say that about North Carolina. But as Bill talked about it today, that's not the world I'm entering. I'm entering this NIL transfer portal,

a completely different landscape. So will it work? I'm betting on it. There's no sure thing. But here's what I know. If he does flop, it will not impact the way he's discussed to my unborn child,

what I'm telling about Bill Belichick, in 20 years. it will not matter. Just like when I tell him about Peyton Manning, his last season when he couldn't throw, that won't come up. Or how Tiger Woods back does not work. No one cares. They remember the great moments.

But if this goes well, he will be an undisputed, like it would be the icing on his cake. And you could argue that it would be more impressive than if he would have stayed in the NFL and just won more games, past Shula, even if he never won another Super Bowl, just had good teams.

Like, we know he can win if he gets the right quarterback. And last but not least on this topic, listen, I think sometimes when you're dominating, you know, in fairness to Bill, and here's the other thing. Like, one thing that clearly resonates with human beings in this landscape we have right now is authenticity. Like, that's really big to society right now. All the metrics are inclined to tell you that.

And the moment people think you're a fraud or a phony, they're out on you. And that's always been true in coaching. Because there have been college coaches that were widely viewed forever. It's like, eh, a guy's kind of a politician. It's kind of, the guy Bill's replacing fits that mold, Mac Brown. Kind of a bullshit artist. Sabin was the best of both worlds, right? He was an elite, no-nonsense, dominant scheme guy.

But he also could put on the charm. and some of those videos of him dancing at a church or dancing in someone's living room, he could do that. And I don't think he was faking it. So when people are like, how is Bill going to do that? Well, guess what?

He won't have to. Just be yourself. You would say Dion Sanders is the polar opposite of Bill Belichick. But why do people relate to Dionne Sanders? Because he's been the same. He's acted the exact same since I was like seven years old

and started watching football. he's just now from a player version morphed into the coach version but he's still authentically true to who he is and Belichick even the day like I mean he's a little more I would say open in these press conferences but he's still Bill Belichick and authentic to who he is so part of college football which I don't understand why it's that polarizing like how's he gonna dance part of the reason everyone makes fun of Brian Kelly

he's making up fucking accents it's like Brian just talk like you talk or that video where he's spinning around. It's like, you don't need to try to do that. Now, that was kind of funny. But just try to be yourself. That's got you this far. So I actually don't think Bill Belichick has to morph into something he's not.

What he is, we'll see if it works. But like his best chance for success is just to be him. Now, part of him rubbed a lot of people in the NFL the wrong way. And there was a Wickersham article today. There was an athletic article today. one thing that was said that he burned a lot of bridges while he was in the NFL. And in the Wickersham article, it said that when he interviewed last year with the Atlanta Falcons, that it turned him off when Terry Fontno was interviewing him,

that he acted like he knew everything about drafting. And I think a lot of people had pushed back on Bill that like he has to be in charge. Well, in fairness to Bill, even no one. you won't find anyone besides like maybe him and some family members defending some of his draft picks especially at the end that they were an embarrassment but in what world in an interview could terry font no look at bill bellichick and break down the draft of their philosophies and what works and what doesn't and expect bill bellichick to take him seriously like i i do understand if you're sitting in his shoes like yeah now if you want to argue burning bridges and screwing over

people and acting like an asshole. Yeah, that's probably is not a great move over the countless times he did it. And now he has no job options in the NFL, which is a big reason clearly he went to college. He knew no one was going to hire him. And I think the only place that would have made sense and they entertained it last year was he has a good relationship with Howie. He trusts Howie to make moves. He's even talked about it on national television was to go to the Eagles. And then the Eagles start having a good season. He realized like, who knows? It might, not happen. Like, I'm not going to the Jags. The Bears aren't going to talk to me. I'm never going to the Jets. Like, it's just not going to happen. And the one thing, I said this over the course

of the week, and you saw it today, the guy loves to coach football. He's not doing this for the money. Obviously, he's still highly paid in North Carolina. But if you put me in his shoes, if you put you in his shoes with his success, where he's at in life, with a young girlfriend at 73 years old, with the sun. Like, I don't know if I'd work anymore at that point. Like, I think I would just hang out. Now, listen, I love golf as much to anyone. You can only play so much.

You get bored. But to have the passion and the drive and the desire to still want to get up every morning at 5.30 or 6 and come into the office and grind. Like, you got to respect it. You really do. And he said something the day when they asked him, a reporter said, Bill,

we're basically the same age. So my question for you at this age, why do you want to do this? And his response was, well, it beats working. When my dad, when I was young, my dad told me, do what you're passionate about. And it won't feel like you work. And that's the best advice. It's the advice I always give to anyone I've ever met. Because no matter what you do, Bill's not totally right on that. Whatever you do. whether you're a musician, whether you're a podcaster, whether you're working in a white collar tech job, and you love it and you're passionate about it. And it means there are going to be elements of it that feel like work

that can become monotonous. There are going to be days where it's like, ah, don't really feel it here. But still, when you love what you're doing, you are that much more inclined to give effort, extra effort, to be that much more determined to be successful. to take that extra effort. And I have a lot of respect for him doing this

because he does not need to do this. He's not doing this for the money. I honestly don't think he's doing it for the ego. I think he's doing it, one, because he loves football. Like, you can't love anything anymore. I don't have children yet, but the way you describe, and I saw it with my parents toward me, like the way you love a child, just unconditional.

Like, it's just, it never ends and never fades. And it's just a powerful connection that is, is not comparable to anything else in your life. That's what Bill has with the sport. And honestly, Mike Lombardi does too. Like, Mike, you're making a ton of money. You're doing all this media stuff. Life's good.

He just loves working with his buddy doing football stuff. It's going to take way more time and effort. And just your life's going to be turned upside down in terms of working 90, 100 hour weeks, banging tape, recruiting, bringing guys to campus, transfer portal. They just love it, man. They really do.

And I have a lot of respect for that. And I guess I'll get you out here on this. It is my fiancee's birthday tomorrow. And you got to get her a present. And she, you know, ever since she's got this, you know, big real estate job, she's hobnobinant with some movers and shakers. And she's like, I need to get a bag. I'm like a bag.

She's like, yeah, like a designer bag. Because she has like an Amazon bag. I was like, I don't, I don't even know the difference. A little out of the loop on this. I obviously know and have heard about people with designer bags, but it's just, I've never had one. So she started showing me kind of what she's interested. I'm like, what?

What? Should we just buy like a jet ski instead? And so I started doing some digging. And then in, uh, so my Fugazi here is, if you ever get in a position where you, you need to, you're thinking about getting one of these things. I've never been to a consignment store I guess I had since I've moved to Arizona a couple times

for like furniture but I had never been to one with like clothes like a high end one with clothes jewelry and specifically bag so I started doing some digging I'm like wait they have these they resell stuff and I went to this consignment store and I start saying listen I don't know what really I'm looking for

I just know that she needs a tote bag whatever the fuck that is can you help me out. Can we help you out? Come look. And they just have walls. Now this is Paradise Valley. High end place in Arizona like where the house Kingsbury was in. I think Kyler lives there now. JJ Watt. And I'm just like this is exactly what she's looking for. I see the price. I'm like, I get like four of these for the price of half of the real one. Why would I buy the real

one? Now some of them a little used, but I found a couple that was like, oh yeah, this one, it just sat in this lady's closet. She never even opened it. She had like 700 of them. I'm like, how much is that price? They're like, uh, 500 bucks? I mean, the prices for the new ones, I mean, you're talking thousands of dollars for a bag. Now, in fairness, she's like, what do you want for your birthday?

I'm like Scotty Cameron Putter. And, you know, the $1,000 putter, but still, I mean, $1,000, I got about five Scotty Cameron putters for the price of a bag. Uh, but I guess girls like bags and, uh, consignment stores. They had so much other stuff.

Uh, I, I might go back and shop for my mom, uh, people in my life. life for Christmas because it's an incredible deal. It really is. So I don't know if that's necessarily Fugazi because listen, the price of the Louies and the Gucci's and the Pradas and all that, the price of the price. They don't do, there's no Cyber Mondays or, you know, Black Fridays in those stores, which I respect. But then you go, it's like, this is the same bag. This person might have used it for six months and it's a quarter of the price. And listen, I'm not Mr. Cheap, But I also just like, well, why wouldn't I just buy three of these for like $1,000?

And that's what I did. So we'll find out if she likes it. Maybe she'll throw them back in my face because they got, you know, there's a couple marks we had to buffer out. But ultimately, I feel like I did pretty well. Hey, it's us to Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, huge news?

We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. but this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name

Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.

I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, Hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad Hey Jonas and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind.

Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real.

From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slical Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Jacob Kingston grew up in an isolated polygamous sect. We were God's chosen kingdom on earth. He felt destined for greatness.

So when a swaggering Armenian businessman catapults Jacob into an extraordinary world, he doesn't look back. Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, meeting the president. of Turkey. I'm Michelle McPhee, and this is one of the most shocking criminal conspiracies I've ever come across. When Jacob met Levin, this went to a billion dollar fraud. But with two kings from entirely different worlds, just how long can their empire survive? The largest tax investigation in American history. You need to tell me what you know. Is somebody coming after me? Jacob told Levan, you're ruining my life. Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Okay, back at it again with my main man Stucky on the day that Belichick will hold his press conference a couple days away from Belichick's favorite program, NFL or college Navy playing Army. And I know Stuckey's a junkie for that game. I saw it opened up a little like around 40. Last I checked, it was I think like 38 and a half. All lines presented here by Draft Kings. This has to be, I bet you have this stat. When's the last time these two teams combined for 19 wins coming into a game? This has to be one of the better versions of both teams playing in this game in a long, long time.

I feel like at minimum one of the teams usually have three or four wins coming into this game, definitely recently, right? Yeah, I don't know Let's see Yeah, it's the most combined wins ever A couple years ago they were both terrible Yeah, first time since 2017 of both teams Have already clinched bowls

And Wow First time since 2017 The Commanders and Chiefs trophy Is at stake It's the highest total since 2019 But yeah, this is the most combined wins

and the 125th version of the Army Navy game Army if they win they win their 12th game of the season which would be the most in program history historic game always

catch it I used to go my dad used to bring me growing up when it was at the the vet in Philly and I went to the link, I think, in 2010, I think.

It was pretty cool. Yeah, I think it would have been the bet when I was Army. I remember one time, I mean, I was very, very young. We had a, we were sitting in a section where Bill Clinton came. So Bill Clinton was president. I must have been like, I don't know, eight, nine, ten. and we had Secret Service had to come and check out our section

and then he came and sat down that was pretty wild to see as a kid but yeah I'll always love this game if there was a game that would go over the past two have gone over actually but like one was in overtime or like two of the past three

one went to overtime to go over and the other was on like the last play of the game this game historically has been I mean just a pure under fest I mean since 2005 unders between service academies are 46 11 and 2 and now the market has adjusted markets adjust to these types of things

you know like the last couple years the totals would close at like 33 and they never were like that before If you go back 10, 15 years, zero totals in the 40s, some totals are the 50s. Mark, it's much more efficient now. People have, people still struggle to model these teams, just your traditional model. Army and the service academies don't really fit into them. They have like, they're, you know, their yards per play is very low, but they're fine with getting like two to three yards.

They're going to go for it a lot on four downs. They're going to chew up the clock, but just the familiarity, which is what their advantage is in other games, because other teams, they don't get the best athletes. athletes. They don't get the five stars. So what their advantage is, they have a unique scheme. And more college teams, as we, you know, we talked about this all season, as the top kind of the talent condenses and we're going to get more parity, the bottom is going to start to fall off more. And with that, I think you have to, some of those teams should consider having unique schemes and unique offenses because then teams aren't preparing for you, for, that type of offense on a weekly basis.

So that's their strength. But when they go up against each other, they don't have that advantage. You're playing against a defense that plays against a similar type of offense every single day in practice. The coaches know, you know,

and plus the coaches know what to look for, how to coach them up. And then these are generally very disciplined, I mean, service academies, disciplined teams. And that is 80% of defending an option attack. Now, they're not,

they're a little more advanced, their offense isn't. than they have been in the past. This isn't just your standard, handed off, full back dive, fake full back dive, run outside for the option. They're a little bit more advanced. So if there was a game that would just fly over,

it would be this one. But it's against my nature to bet the over in these games. So I wouldn't fault anyone for doing it, but I have a good friend who's heavily invested in the over, and I'll probably be trolling him if it's, seven three at the half like I told them. But I'm looking forward to this one for sure. The Davis Blue Devils.

And I don't like Navy. If it gets the seven, that's too high. Because again, the familiarity should be lower scoring. This Army just crushed Tulane. I think they're the better team. But again, the familiarity, like just this, it should be close and it should be lower scoring. So I'm waiting to get a seven with the Navy.

The Davis Blue Devils, where I went to high school, we ran the Delaware ringtee. wing tea so i got a special place in my heart for you know the 28th sweep and the the uh 31 fullback trap uh belly they they call belly belly belly yeah yeah we run some of that uh so you know what's funny is like even when i was at fresno state and pat hill ran a pro style offense he still had caught you know in the run game because they're just they love running the had run game concepts based in pro style offense with belly and the trap and you know the sweep it's it's it's all interconnected. You know, these guys are such fucking junkies.

And some of it, and everything in football is cyclical. Like, you're starting to see some of those concepts come back into the NFL. Yeah. For sure. As everyone evolved in like catching up to passing and how to defend spread and pass, you know, you're seeing these teams that, again, have unique running schemes. It can move the ball in different ways and it's always a cat and mouse game. So everything in football.

Forever will always be cyclical in that sense. Well, before we dive into some of these, we have some really good games this weekend, actually, on Sunday because Saturday doesn't really exist beside the one game. But you have a unique perspective because, you know, you live in, I think, what could be argued, like the number one college basketball area area in America,

that Indiana, North Carolina, it'd definitely be in the conversation for us. You know, I think if you just pulled sports, fans, Kentucky would have a strong, strong argument to be number one. But the football program a couple years ago has had some moments. Obviously, they have one of the Stoops brothers who's pretty polarizing, but it's not apples to apples with North Carolina. I think you would agree because the SEC is harder.

Like he is playing Georgia, Tennessee, now the no divisions, bam, it's just way more difficult than playing even Mario Cristoball, ain't exactly Jimmy Johnson. so when you when it became final what was what were your thoughts as just a college football junkie

somebody who follows this shit someone who's probably bet on and against North Carolina you know the ACC well what are your thoughts on Belichick going to North Carolina I was number one I was just shocked

I didn't see it coming and my thoughts are it could either work really well or just be a complete disaster in how you know kids are going to respond to them how he handles the kids and that's a big uncertainty i think what will you know because at the end of his career he started to lose his fastball a bit in terms of you know i mean the drafting fell off but just special teams game management like a lot of those things fell off. So I think what is going to determine if he ultimately succeeds is who he hires

as his coordinators and fills out his staff. I think that's going to go a long way. I think another thing that happened to him at the end of his error in New England, I mean, obviously he lost Brady, but he was too loyal to certain guys and that were on his staff. And then he was responsible, and him and Brady were responsible for most of that success. You saw all the guys who would go elsewhere. Never did any. So, but he was too loyal to certain guys that were, um, so like is he is, is Matt Patricia going to be the OC? Like, you wouldn't want that. Um, so I'm curious to see. I assume he's going to, he would, would you want him as your DC? I think he's going to bring in his son who, as his DC, who I think did a really good job at Washington

and is pretty sharp. So I think that would be a good move. And I think he wants, like, his son to be the successor at UNC as the head coach, but which I don't know if I can see Steve being a head coach, but you never know how those things work. I think he would be a good DC hire. The O.C. hire is going to be really important. And then obviously it's all about managing the portal,

somewhat recruiting. How's all that going to shake out? You know, it's not colleges so much more now than just, okay, here's our team and here's going to be our game plan and the X's and O's. Like, there's a lot

of other stuff that goes into it. So his staff is going to be, so he has like an R and he can just go like, hey, I'm Bill Belchick, come play for me. I have connections in the NFL, right? He can sell that very easily. But I think his staff how he fills that out is going to be

over critical, but it'll be fascinating to watch for sure. What would you say the coaching staffs he's going up against? I mean, I think Mario is pretty big scam artist when it comes to just out-coaching you. Yeah, Marriott does all the other things. Elite. Yeah, he's elite.

Belichick would die for Mario to be like his number three, right? Recruiting, giving bags, be his old line coach. Like, he needs guys. That is big in college football. like he can't just bring Josh, Patricia, even Steve. Like he's going to need some like college football hustler recruiters. Like there is a balance on a staff more than the NFL. Like the NFL, ideally all your position coaches and coordinators are just scheme guys.

In college there's a lot of guys making seven figures or high six figures because they can recruit and interact with high school kids and coaches. Yeah. And I think that's a great point. I think that all. Like Patricia, Patricia ain't resonating with people. Like he's, to me,

that's one for Bill. It's like, I, I just, I'd pivot on that one, but he's not going to. Patricia's going to come. I'm also curious just how much weight and gravity does he have in terms of recruiting.

So I think he has a lot. I would assume so, but I'm not, you know, I'm not 18, right? So like Bill Belichick, how much old does he still,

does he have with an 18 year old now? And it's going to be a lot, but how much, right? How many more of the, of those four potential five stars can he get because of who he is and because does it does it matter now with money yeah i mean it's i think it matters a little bit but not as much um but yeah you got you got to manage the portal you have to you have to do all those other things like christa ball you you also still need to

to manage the game prepare your team so it's a it's a fine balance and he can't treat the the players way. I mean, maybe he can because he's Bill Belichick. I mean, Saban would just, you know, he would lose his lady right at like a military, but he, no, they're kids, not adults. And, um, how is he going to manage the difference there? It's, it's not the same. So I just think it's going to be a fascinating watch to see how it all plays out. But I'll definitely be watching his staff for sure and how he fills that out. Because I think that'll go a long way and determining where this goes. One thing will be interesting. I think you said this is like people forget that Alabama. Bam in the last couple years has been a little shakier, you know, in terms of some of the nuts

and bolts of penalties and stuff. Yeah. And I do wonder, you know, part of what Nick had advantage of, he's obviously, you know, one of the rare college defensive guys who's just an elite Belichick level schematic guy, but he was also getting the best players, well, pre-transfer portal. By the time, most of those guys started, it took them a year or two in the program before they started. He had two or three, four years with everybody. And then once transfer portal started, happening. You don't get as much time. Well, part of Belichick's whole thing, the reason he always said, like, he would take, I'm just going to use this example, Cole Strange, you know, guys that aren't as talented. He's like, why the fuck you drafted that guy? Because he thought they were smart and they could learn his complex stuff. So like, well, you're getting guys coming in and out, the complexity of everything they do. Like, what's Josh McDaniel's thing was. Patriot offense is really hard. Only Brady can. Remember, Gronk used to be like, Tom, you got to calm down. No one can understand what you're saying. You're speaking Chinese. here. And that to me, like, now Belichick at his core is a teacher. He obviously understands that, but that's going to be a challenge of like the balance of how much you can give kids that might

only be in your program for a year or two, right? Yeah. Yeah. That's going to be fascinating. Yeah, and maybe part of the saving thing also was just you lose your fastball. I think they're like the same age. They're like 73. So you can't do as much as you used to be able to do. You're probably not as sharp as you used to be. So again, that comes back to your staff and who you hire and who's around you, which is what I think it will come down to. But there's so many layers to it and it'll be a fascinating watch and fascinating win total and everything to talk about. Because in this era of college football, we saw it this year, look at Indiana in the college football playoff.

There's so much variance year to year with these teams. A team like Ohio, Ohio was bottom five in returning production on offense and defense lost pretty much everyone. They lost Roark, their quarterback to Indiana who led them to the playoff. This team lost

everybody. They won the Mac. I mean, they were picked as one of the worst teams coming in to the season. There's so much variance in a year-to-year basis. So you grab a certain number of players you make a coaching hire change that works out, you know,

you can find yourself in the college world playoff discussion. Because it's the ACC, like, it's not like, yeah. Sucks. Yeah, it's not the SEC. It sucks. And their biggest advantage, Florida State in Miami, doesn't exist if he's got $20 million to pay people, as they say that they're going to fill his NIL coffer up.

So that's, yeah, the money is nothing to watch. How much money do they have to play with? Yeah, because it wouldn't have made as much sense 10 years ago, right, going up against Miami and Florida State. too big of a disadvantage. Well, now you go, I can buy more players. I think the devil said recently, right,

we're going to have more money moving forward. Yeah. Yeah, another thing to keep in mind, just because it is bowl season, I'm sure we'll talk about more of these in the cultural playoff games in future episodes, but certain coaches care more about bowls than others. And as you might imagine,

Cristobal, not one of them. Because what does Christopal care about? Recruiting, filling out the road. what do you think he's you think he's spending time on the game plan for iowa state over the next couple weeks probably not and crystal ball is not been good um let me say he's two six and one i think against the spread in bowl games um so it's all about who's playing though right what's that cam war he says he's going to play now this is a fascinating development there's going to be like in recent years the only top five picks like projected top five picks that I can

remember playing I'm sure there's more is just off the top of my head but I remember Alabama Bryce Young and Will Anderson both played in the bowl when everyone was like they're yeah they're not going to play and everyone was betting against them including me um and then they ended up playing this year but if you go back and you look at all like the quarterbacks the top five you sit out if it's a meaningless bowl not if it's a playoff game

but this year you have like all of these guys are saying they're going to play and you know Colorado Dion came out he was taking like a little shot at Florida State he says you know we don't opt out and have to see our program

crater the next year but he says like Shador and Travis Hunter are going to play like their projected top five picks Cam Ward comes out I think it was on a Zoom call with Dion says he's going to play now all this stuff is kind of new. I don't know if there's,

so the sample size isn't great, but I don't know if there's, number one, it could change. Their agents could get to them and say, please don't play. But there also could be, they also could just play a little bit

and then not, and then come out of the game. But there also could be like NIL deals tied to not opting out. I agree. So a couple million dollars, I don't know if it would be like pro rated or what. I don't know how that works,

but I've read rumblings of that. I don't know how the contracts work. So there could be other things that play, but it's very surprising that if you look down the board at all of like the top quarterbacks, it looks like most of them are going to play. I'll be curious to, and I'm, so I'll be curious to follow that and how it plays out

because there have been guys before that said they're going to play, and then agent gets in their ear and they end up sitting out. I think Marvin Harrison was trying. He was hurt, but he said he was going to play. But, you know, he didn't end up playing. Most of the guys recently have not. But it looks like this year, some of the top guys are going to play. It'll be very interesting to watch.

I have a tracker that I spend countless hours on every single day following injuries, coaching moves, portal movement, opt-outs, you name it for every single bowl game. You just go to my Twitter profile. It's in there at Stucky, too, because it's like a full-time job. monitoring all that. So if you're betting the Bulls, check that out because literally every hour there's someone going in the portal, someone saying they're going to opt out. I mean, it's insane. Well, sometimes coaches leave, right? Assistant coaches like a linebacker coach or a coordinator might just take an upgraded job and they leave before the bowl game. So that's, yeah, I give you a lot of credit. I don't know how you even track that. That's a lot of shit going on.

It's not like there's 32 NFL teams. There's how many division one teams? Yeah, there's, well, there's 80 teams to track. The good thing is you can remove the playoff teams. There's more playoff teams now because you know that everyone is going to stay in play. But yeah, you're talking like around 70 teams that you got to follow. It's a lot of work. The head coach is a really interesting. Teams that haven't had a head coach over the past two cycles, they've gone 0 and 9 in bowl games. I think two and seven against the spread. And it's not like they've lost. They've gotten blown out like Purdue LSU two years ago. Syracuse last year lost 45-0-0 to South Florida.

And I think part of that, again, not the biggest sample size. But, I mean, there's count, most of those examples, the teams just got ran off the field. Oregon State last year, if they lost Jonathan Smith. Notre Dame didn't even play anybody and destroy them. But I think what happens is once a coach leaves, you're most likely going to have a lot more opt-outs, and there's not, what's the incentive to play?

You're going to have a lot more guys hit the portal. Even before the game starts in the betting market, you're probably going to have a lot more guys that the betting market didn't find out about that end up opting out. So, yeah, teams without a coach. And like this year, I don't know, it's like West Virginia, Ohio and Jacksonville State actually play each other. So that doesn't really count. North Carolina have a go six and six? Yeah, North Carolina is one of them.

Freddie Kitchens is there, remember him? He's going to be their interim. coach. So I list all them out too. So there's that's definitely worth watching. Um, because has still, over the past few seasons in this new error that UNLV, although Cal's starting quarterback at the portal, their backup got hurt. So now they could be down to their third string. That game is wild. Cal's up to a four and a half point favor. Now down to one. I don't know what to make of that game. Do you know what I heard about the Cal quarterback is going to go to Miami? Yeah. He's, he's probably going to get paid.

And then like the writings on the wall, you saw an hour before it was announced, his top receiver hit the portal. So you can kind of read some T-leaves. You're like, oh, there might be something coming here. Washington State's quarterback might hit the portal soon. Sam Houston State doesn't have a coach. They have, I don't, 11, 12 guys in the portal, but they say they're going to play. That could be like James Madison last year. They didn't cover when Signetti lost, but most of them ended up playing.

So that and because Sam, you can say new, new team to FBS, they might be excited to play in a bowl. A team that might not is Marshall. I think Marshall has the most guys in the portal, the starters in the portal. Their coach left. They won the conference championship. Their coach left for Southern Miss from Marshall. They didn't get along with the program. All their, almost their starters, they're at the portal.

And their QB1, QB2, QB3. They're down to a couple freshmen. I don't know which one they're going to go with. Marshall could be a mess. They're playing Army. And one last nugget, I know I'm rambling. Service academies in bowl games, usually a great bet. Reason for that, they always show up.

Motivation is not an issue. Motivation in these meaningless bowl games is huge. Does the team care? Did they prepare? Do they want to be there? Who opted out? Service academies don't have to worry about it. You know they're going to show up.

You know they're prepared. You know they're going to care. And so 70% against the spread service academies in bowl games since 1990. And one of them, Army, is playing Marshall. I didn't know if this was true or not, but I saw on Instagram, did Marshall, again, I felt like this guy was making this up in the comments that it wasn't quite true, that every single guy on the team opted out

or went to the transfer portal, basically because they wouldn't pay them. That's why the guy left. I don't quite know the deep, not that it matters. Because funny thing about the Cal quarterback, did you see the clip when they beat Stanford, like the second or third to the last week of the season, that went viral of him going,

died on the field my guys. It was an incredible moment. I heard on like Wednesday or Thursday of the next week and this, this happens a lot. I guess college football people know this, that he just goes up to Wilcox. Again, after one of the more viral moments, everyone's like, God, the passion, this is why we love, and looks at Wilcox and says, I'm sick, which is the new, I'm fucking out of here. So it's like, we live, I'm not taking, I guess that moment was real, but how could it be real if he already, he already knew he was leaving surely it's like this is good luck bill this is a crazy world where

you just go up to wilcox this is this is like a 50 year old guy just like i'm sick it's complete it's like a lie he's not sick at all and then he's now in the transfer portal and he'll be with mario so i it'll be interesting maybe bill's gonna like it my take is that it's kind of like silicon valley probably 20 30 years ago when even the government didn't know there are no fucking rules. And what has Bill always done? Push the rules. Why does he always hate Park Avenue? Because they were the ones, they were like the government. He fucking hates

that. He wants to just let me cook. Well, college football, you can do whatever you want. Yeah, he was always finding like the little There are no loopholes because there are no holes. It's wide open. Yeah. Yeah, that's really with Mendoza. It's something I'm going to have to watch in the future. Like in that final weekend, teams that are already bowl eligible with quarterbacks because I had no idea.

No one had any idea. The line didn't even move that Mendoza was out. Like this wasn't announced during the week, probably just sat out, no one's going to the portal. Wilcox then comes out four days ago and says Mendoza will be back next year. But, yeah, obviously he's not.

And he went to Columbus High School in Miami. So he's gone. That would make sense. But yeah, that's one to watch. They could be down to the third stream because their backup got hurt. So that game versus UN, I don't know where UNLV's head out.

They were playing to go into a playoff. Now you lose your coach. Your OC's gone and be gone. That's some of those games. Why would you take the Purdue job? Is that much better than UNLV in this NIL era? Yeah, he got paid. I assume it's just money.

That's probably giving $40, $50 million. Yeah, but the John Summerall is a really good coach at Tulane. I think he's eventually going to get an SEC job. He was rumored to be going anywhere. and he actually signed an extension with Tulane. He was asked, like, are you going? He said, look, I don't know. I want to stay.

But if your newspaper offered another newspaper offered, talking to the reporter, offered you three times as much money, you're probably going to really consider it and maybe take it. That's a lot of times that's all it comes down to. So, yeah, I assume that it's money. But that's a tough job. And you can, like you have to, the Ohio coach, Tim Alvin, went down to sharp.

Charlotte. I mean, Charlotte has not been good. And there's more resources. You probably got paid more. You're down in the South for like recruiting. But the floor is so much lower. Like at Ohio, you can field your team that's going to be decent. You just won a Mac championship. The floor and you can just flame out. And that could happen. Ryan Walters was a hot coordinator name. And, you know, at Illinois, it helped that he had, you know, all he did was run cover one. He had three defensive backs playing the NFL in one year. But he goes to Purdue. I mean, they just don't have the resources. And then you're competing in the Big Ten and you get, and you're gone in a year or two. And then where are you? I mean, Odom is, he's not a. He's like 50 years old, 48.

Yeah. So it's not like, he's just probably trying to get as much money as he can. He's 48. And then if it doesn't work out, I'll go be like a coordinator at Arkansas. So, but yeah, those are definitely interesting decisions. but I'm assuming that was just a money money decision.

Okay, let's go to a state that's near and dear to your heart with two teams that are a pretty big deal in that state, both two of the bigger NFL brands. The Eagles are on a night, they are a win away from the longest winning streak in the history of the franchise. Yet this week got weird and it got weird fast when Brandon Graham basically admitted

they don't like each other anymore. And it's like you can, roll it back all you want. You said what you said. You've been with the team for literally 15 years, you know. And that was a big selling point. Remember, when they traded for AJ is those guys were boys. And they're clearly not anymore.

And from what I've heard, it's not just that Jaylon's a hit or miss passer. I think there's some personality stuff. And it kind of shows like, I bet on the Eagles in terms of they were my pick, just based on talent. You watch them, they're loaded with talent. I mean, they are

the offensive lines awesome. Obviously, adding Sequin, the receivers, the tight end, they're fucking defensive players. I mean, Jalen Carter, he might be a wild card off the field, red flag, when he is on. I mean, there's Larry Allen might with him. I mean, he's a special, special talent. Cooper DeGene,

the rookie corner they have is a stud. But, you know, you watch the Lions, it's like, this group units is like, geez, these guys love each other, right? You watch the Chiefs and the bills. It feels like much more of a team than you watch this squad. that's where this Tomlin

five and a half to me seems a little outrageous. It'd be one thing if the Steelers were like a six and six team. Like they've been pretty good. I thought that Russell played like his best game. Obviously Pickens wasn't playing so the lollipop throws in. He made a couple throws in the red zone last week that was like

God, this is kind of Seattle, Russie. And I don't know how they do it, but no team drafts pass rushers as well as them. I mean, they got random white guys coming off the edge. You're like, who are these guys? And then obviously T.J. Watt, I think Cam Hayward, I mean, you talk about a guy that rolled back the clock. Every time I watch them, he looks like really good for a guy that's 35, 36 years old. I kind of like the Steelers to win this game, honestly, Stucky, definitely hammering them plus the points. Because I think the Eagles, and you'd have to agree, like the Jalen, their passing game is just off. And to me, it's him because he's not a great pocket passer. So it's got to be the freelance plays outside the pocket. And those are just going to be hit or missing the NFL.

Yeah, and under pressure, his numbers crater, which the Steelers can get. Yeah, taking Tomlin as a dog, he's the most profitable coach in NFL history against the spread as an underdog. This year, they've been underdog five times. They've won all five outright. So this is your classic Tomlin spot. Along those lines, if you look at these Tomlin dog spots, the under has hit almost at just as high of a clip. I like the under in this game. I think they're kind of correlated.

what happened one of the reasons why tomlin his teams are so good as an underdog he gets them off he's like a raw rock coach but he'll also play these games very conservatively and i mean that's his nature anyway but he's going to rely on his defense he's going to rely on his special teams and keep the game close and then what happens they waddle strip someone in the fourth quarter and then they'll get a short field touchdown and win the game like that's he just wants to keep the game when he knows he's overmatched as an underdog. Keep the game close. Don't lose it. Don't lose the turnover. They're the only team in the NFL. The last seven years it hasn't lost a turnover battle in any season. They're one possession record over the past 10 years of the best in the NFL.

So don't lose the game. Don't turn it over. I don't think they're going to have a ton of success on offense. The Eagles defense is peaking and it's real. Like their young corners, the Fangio, it's a complex deed. They've really picked up on it. But the corners have made the biggest difference. They're number one in the NFL

against the deep pass there's no pickens that's been the best form of the steelers offense the deep pass with russell his intermediary and wait do you don't think pickin's going to play this week no i mean they said he was doubtful yesterday so i doubt it uh i mean they're in good position for the playoffs like like why push them it sounds like and i believe they have the chiefs and ravens coming up they do um which are bigger games in the grand scheme of things so i don't think that he does play so and the eagles run defense has been really good and trending up So I don't think the Steelers are going to have much success offensively. And they're going to play it close to the vest.

And the Eagles are running as much as any team in the NFL by a wide margin. So clock's going to be running in this one. Neither team is particularly fast. And, yeah, the Steelers defense, the run defense, I think, can hold up against Barclay. They'll show up. They'll be hyped up. They can get pressure on hurts. And I'm just curious to see.

The other thing is the Eagles can't score in the first quarter, which plays into the Steelers' hands. It's like keep it close, right? just make this a grinder. And they've been like the worst offense in the NFL in the first quarter. They can't score. Their script has been so bad. I am curious to watch like, how does this Brown fall out, play out on the field? Does it throw off the offense?

Are they trying to force balls to Brown to make them? They came out and they said we need to get him the ball more. So like, is it going to throw off like what they're trying to do and how that chemistry plays out throughout the game if he's not getting the ball? They said they squashed in the meeting. It'll be interesting to watch, but yeah, you can't go wrong with Tomlin as a dog. And usually that's correlated with the under, which I like here. I saw a social clip of Mangini saying, like, that's insane to say that out loud. Like Kellan Moore just said that.

My pushback would be once they work to get everything settled, clearly they're going to try to feed their guy. So whether you say it or not, I think Mike Tomlin and Terrell Austin with Minka Fitzpatrick going over the defensive of strengths and weaknesses and game plan would go, they're going to force feed this guy. I don't need to hear Kellan Moore, Siriani talk. The other thing is, you know, kind of nerdy football.

How about the kicker matchup here? One guy is turned into Justin Tucker 2.0, and the other guy is not very reliable right now. Jake Elliott looks like Jake Moody right now. I mean, one of the biggest reasons, the Steelers. If you like it in a close game, I mean, you got to like the Steelers.

One guy, he's a kick away from, are they going to start booing them at the last? link yeah he has lost this kickers they lose they lose it mentally it's gone at least for that season and yeah elliot looks even his makes look shaky and he was automatic last year but if you look at the division Steelers are 10 and three ravens are eight and five the bangles are five and eight the browns are three and ten everyone's lost close games they all had kicker problems except the Steelers the Steelers have arguably the best kicker in the NFL this year in boswell in one of the toughest stadiums, by the way, to kick in

with some of those swirling wins, especially on one end of the field. But the Ravens, I think, have lost their games by a total of 22 points and in their losses. And I think that's the amount of, I think Tucker's missed like 21 worth of fuel goals, 21 points in those games. The Browns, I mean, every week, they finally cut them.

But Hopkins, I mean, look at Hopkins last week, missed a couple of field goals against the Steelers. The Bengals, I mean, McPherson was shaky and now he's hurt. Like, it matters. And especially with the Steelers, we want to play these close games. Their kicking has been so much superior to everyone in the division, which might end up making the difference when it's all set and done and get them, get them put the Ravens in the wild card, which not many people thought coming into the season.

But yeah, that could end up, that's something to watch in this game. Tomlin would love for this to turn into a fuel goal battle. where they would have the edge. Well, I know he's injured right now, but the Chiefs post-Ty-Rie Kill have played in a lot of tight games. Butker's been pretty good for him. I mean, that's, it matters. Again, you look at why these teams,

the best teams, the best one possession teams are the past 10 years, the Chiefs and the Steelers. And part of that is coaching. Part of that is you don't turn it over. And part of that is having a reliable kicker. You're going to be in a close game. one possession game, you to go kicker. Like, what's going to happen with the Chiefs?

Mahomes, they're down. Mahomes has the ball late. He's going to find a way to score, to get into scoring range, and then Bucker's going to make the field goal. Now, it's a little shakier now, because you've got Matthew Wright, who's been pretty good, but he's not Bucker who ends up. I mean, the Chief's luck this year is, we talk about this last. You want it to end because these games don't mean that much.

I mean, I guess you can get home field, but man, Every week they went on the last play the game on something crazy. Well, think about this. If you're the Chiefs, you know, I think the Steelers mainly fall in this category, too. If you're going to score, let's say, feels like most games, two touchdowns and kick, let's just give you a conservative two field goals. That is six points in field goals and two points and extra points. That's eight points.

So if you were to miss an extra point and a field goal, the difference between eight and four, well, if you're only scoring 18 to 20 points, that's a huge swing. points. Yeah. So it's like they are relying, especially this, you know, when Bucker was healthy in the Steelers, like that's a big deal. It's like, I win 19 to 17. Well, if that fucker misses his 48-yard field goal, we lose the game.

Yeah. And the Steelers, too, the, like, an important part of them getting home games and playoffs and weather in that stadium in particular, like, Boswell's unfazed by it. There are teams that won't attempt a 55-yard. field goal in that stadium on one side, especially if there's any weather. They'll just pun it. I mean, for a long time, Justin Tucker led that stadium in 50 plus yard field goals, didn't even play for the Steelers. And, you know, Boswell's clearly overtaken them now. But that's how hard that stadium is to kick. You get home playoff games. That's a major edge,

like you said, in a game where two field goals could be, you know, a third of your points. Okay, Bill's Lions I think it's easy to look at that game Right, I think you can look at a twofold Understandable they just clinched the division Coming across The Rams had been kind of shitty All of a sudden look like the Rams team

That we saw at the end of the year last year They were clicking, Stafford was humming And they jumped on them early And then Josh Allen turned on Josh Allen We got a game down the stretch I think this is one of your Feels like one of your classic spots where everyone overreacts a little bit and hammers the lions.

I mean, the lions, early on in that game against the Packers, you had Jamal Adams running around out there on defense. I haven't looked at their injury report in the last day, but they have a lot of guys that are legitimately injured. So I just think this is a spot where everyone thinks the Lions are, you know, the 07 Patriots. And obviously, offensively, they're pretty incredible. but I do think this defense, it's one thing, you know, the Packers just play so shitty sometimes early in games.

I thought they lost that Thursday night game in the first half when they had seven points. Because in the second half, they calmed down. They were scoring at will. It's like, well, if you fucking guys just had 13 points in the first half, you're not stressing this game. Instead, it's like touchdown, touched out. You went back and forth in the second half.

It's like you lost it by scoring seven points against freaking Jamal Adams in the first half. It was, if I'm Aaron Glenn, like that is my resume. Just watch the first half with these random cats against the Green Bay Packers on Thursday that football. Because like, I like the bills here plus two and a half. I do too. I'm waiting to see if there's a three that pops.

So I'm going to wait. There's no sense in jumping in now at two and a half. It goes to two, whatever. It's much more detrimental. But if you bet two and a half, then you can get a three. This, look, I love the Rams last week. a really good spot and Stafford was just on fire against the zone, which he tends to be. Bills are zone heavy, don't play.

That's what you want to do against Scott. If you play, his numbers against Mann, the lines offensive numbers, mentioned this in previous weeks against Mann. If you look at them compared to all the other teams, you need like extra pieces of paper if you graph them out. There's so much higher. Against zone, they're like the seventh, eighth best offense in the NFL. Bill's predominant zone team.

Now they're probably down one of their starting corners in Douglas. It's had a down year, but that'll still be somewhat impactful. But yeah, I think that the Bills, their offense, we talk about the Lions offense indoors, the Bills offense with Josh Allen indoors. I mean, this is a team that scored five, they scored 30 plus five straight games. They played a bunch of those games outdoors, and they haven't had all their weapons. This week, fully healthy. Kincaid, full participant, Coleman, full participant.

they have everyone back. So this offense, if you look historically, Josh Allen indoors, this includes his loss last week in which they scored, you know, 42 points. 9, 2 and 1 against the spread, 81%, covering by 9 points per game. And if you, then Allen is an underdog or favored of less than a field goal, 27, 14, and 2 against the spread, 66%. And this is when you want to fade these teams that have a 90 plus percent win percentage. They look invincible. teams with a win percentage north of 90% in the month of December overall, 21, 48, and 2 against the spread, 30% against the spread since 2003.

But I just think this lion's defense, when you account for all the injuries, they are so right to get just absolutely shredded. They're playing very aggressive to make up for some of the injuries. They're blitzing on. They're playing a ton of man, single high. go back and look at who the lines have played this year. Name me an elite quarterback with a fully healthy offense. Having faced one. I mean, you look at the Lions'

line schedule. They've played. Now, Jordan Love. You don't count Love last week? He's like in somewhat there. I mean, but the Packers put up, what did they put up 30 when he was healthy? Yeah. But I don't, he's not in the Allen tier quite yet.

You know, but they played the bears, the Colts, the Jags with Mack Jones. They played Straub when he didn't have any of his receivers, and they really should have lost that game. They played a hurt-love. They played the Titans with Mason Rudolph. The Vikings with Donald, he's playing well, but he's not elite. And the Vikings put up 30. You know, so you look back. They haven't had to face an elite.

I guess you can go back to Stafford week one. But there's all his offensive line and Nakua got hurt. His offense, they were down to like their sixth center, and Hutchinson would have like eight sacks in the second half. The bill's offense fully healthy. And the way that the Lions are playing right now, you can get away with that against mid-tier quarterbacks, bad quarterbacks.

But with, you know, your single high playing man trying to blitz Josh Allen, you're going to get picked apart here. And also, you don't want to play man against Josh Allen. He especially indoors, that's where I think the bills have the edge over the Lions. is Allen third downs can run and get the first downs, which Goff can't. And against man, his legs are super important. So I think it's a really close game.

I think it's closer to point. So give me the points with Josh Allen indoors with a fully healthy offense. Against lines defense could be a little off here. Today will be a big on the injury front. Like McNeil could be back. Could get a couple guys in the defensive line. Not sure about Reader, but they're herded linebacker. And I think the secondary is vulnerable.

I think the bills bounce back here. Really important game for them. If they won home field, they have the game up on the Chiefs. Lost last week. Chiefs don't have an easy schedule down the stretch. Bills need this one instead of the lines. I think it'll be a good game, but just give me the points.

Okay, now to a team Sunday night football. They've won four straight games. Now two of them been against Kyler and the Cardinals. One of them was the Jets. And another was an impressive win against the 49ers who had some injuries. This team at home, I just looked at the weather. It's supposed to rain every day except Sunday. But it's cold, windy, the place is rocking.

To me, they basically got to win two of their last four. It almost feels like they would be a lock to be in the playoffs. They still have the Bears, but these next two games against, and they finish with the Rams are against the Packers and the Vikings. So if they win one of these next two games, I feel pretty good about Seattle's chances. to be in the playoffs. This is a big spot for Jordan Love on the road. It's just crazy environment.

Every time I want to trust them, like it gets back to the first half. It's like, well, they start slow and then they start humming. Now granted, like you said, that Detroit defense, it's like, what are we talking about? This is a little different animal against a defensive coordinator that's gotten guys back and he's done a really good job. I kind of like Seattle. Underdog at home. Now, I get it.

this isn't the L-O-B Seattle Seahawks, but that's, to me, seems like money line value there. Like, I mean, this Packer team, I've liked them, but the more and more, like, the season has gone on, like, yeah, maybe they're kind of in the same spot as last year, and maybe they're a year away from kind of getting closer to where they want to go, and this is more of a year, like, they might win a playoff game, they might be one and done, but they're not really a true Super Bowl contender. Not that Seattle is either, but what the hell is the difference? I'm taking the home team in a cold weather.

environment against, you know, a young quarterback that, you know, just gives you bad halves. He can, he can turn it on for a half and look like Aaron Rogers, but you just can't afford to win some of these games when you're fucking scoring no points. Yeah, I don't mind the Sealks here. I want to see if Kenneth Walker plays. I think he'll be important in this game. Charbonnet Grant, now I get they were playing, you know, the Cardinals, but he's

Yeah, he doesn't look good at best week. But it'll help to have Walker, too. I, you know, the Seahawks are interesting. team because I think if you look at Gino's splits, he's so much better indoors in cushy environments. We go back to that Atlanta game in all season. The offense is better suited to be an indoor. Go to the Lions game.

I mean, they were scoring at will. And they had offensive line injuries in that game. There were Metcalfo fumble away from that game being like 35 all. So their offense is built for like to be an indoor team. And because they can't, they don't run the ball consistently. They have offensive line injuries. Like, Gino can move around more. They have good speed at, you know,

chifty receivers. You have METCAF and go deep. So their offense is not built to, like, play where they play at this time of the year. So maybe they won't be hurt, like, by going into the plows and having to go, uh, on the road and playing, you know, if they had to go play Minnesota or Detroit. Something worth don't. Because I think their defense can play anywhere. And, but their offense doesn't look as good at home.

So that, that's, I don't mind the under here, too. I think it's like, high. leverage game. Seattle's offensive line still has some issues. Their offense doesn't look good at home, but the defense is, I still think, undervalue. Their last two games have gone over, but if you go back to the Jets game, there was a pick six, a kick return for a touchdown, two muffed kickoffs that led to points. And then last week, Kyler, there was two picks that leave the two short field touchdown.

This Seahawks defense is legit, and it's McDonald. We've always talked about him. He's made the necessary adjustments schematically to fit his defense. team. But not only that, he's changed, he's fundamentally changed his team. And some of it's just health. Defensive line was so banged up middle part of the year and the secondary. I mean, do you have multiple starters. But now, so now that not only are they healthy, but he changed some things. He got Ray Sean Jenkins out of the lineup who was terrible, put Kobe Bryant in at free safety since week seven. It's been a huge plus. That big, big upgrade of free safety also

allows you to do more with your now healthy corners. Linebackers. I mean, I mean, he was constantly shifting, cutting, trading, getting the guys that he needed in there. Linebacker a pretty important position in how he wants to disguise things, more so than other schemes. He got his guys in there that he felt were the best fit coming out of the buy. It looks like he was right. Now they're defending the run well. Their secondary is healthy. You've upgraded to free safety.

You have more flexibility with your corners who are now healthy. So that whole unit is trending up. And I think they'll be ready here. Another thing to watch is the Packers could get, let me see if there's an update that would help the under, is the Packers secondary is their corners in particular are not really good when there's no Jaya Alexander, but if he goes a second straight day of full participation, that helps them a lot. That will allow them to do more things for an aggressive defense. and he'll obviously be important for Metcalf.

So you could get Alexander here, which kind of upgrades the Green Bay defense. So I don't mind taking the home dog, but I also kind of like the under as well. I mean, there's a decent chance we get this game in a month, right, as the three-six. Yep, yeah. Because the Packers are, I mean, I think are pretty entrenched.

I feel pretty confident they're going to be the six, right? They're not going to be the seven, and now it's pretty tough after that lion's loss to be the to be the five right given that whoever however shakes out between Minnesota and Detroit ends up the one or two and the five and then the Eagles end up the one or two and Seattle I guess the Rams were recording this before Thursday night technically can still win the division but so you could yeah the Packers are if they're like 95 they're 98 percent to get in right now Vikings are 99 they're a playoff team I mean they're in. Yeah. The Vikings, Lions and Green Bay Area. Yeah,

Vikings probably going to be your five, Packers, your six. And, yeah, Seattle is probably going to be your three. I mean,

the Bucks have a really easy schedule. So maybe they could end up jumping them. But maybe the commanders could jump the Packers, I guess. But I think commanders are leaking oil. We'll have to see how they look this weekend

because I, I could see them start losing some games. Yeah, I mean, you got to remember the commanders, they have an easy game this week, but then they have Eagles. Well, then they also, they have the Falcons at home, then the Cowboys. So they could finish with 10 wins pretty easily,

even though I do think they're leaking oil. So, but I think the Packers will eventually end up with the six. So, yeah, this is most likely to be a rematch. But if the Seahawks win this game, If the Seahawks lose this game Yeah, then again Division's back on The winner to the

This will be out the day after But whoever won the 40, The 40 idols will be right back in it They beat the Rams. That the Rams win it. They're right there. So, yeah, this is a huge game For the Seahawks

And their chances at the division Because they host the Vikings next And then they close And then they get the, they're at the Bears on a short week, which it's not an easy spot. And then they close at the Rams. So huge swing game for the Seahawks. Before I get you out of here, any other games, any other games you like?

You like a little Raider money line upset against the Atlanta Falcons at home? Or is that a little too bold? I got to see who's playing quarterback. They're saying O'Connell. I don't know what's going on with that game. I mean, the Falcon, I don't think Custons is fully healthy right now. So, yeah, why not? I did play the Chargers

minus two and a half like you can find like a minus 120 out there I know Herbert has an ankle I think will be all right McConkey's playing Bucks run as much zone as any team in the league Herbert number one quarterback against zone this is the number one offense against zone and the Bucks also don't have any safeties

and Antoine Winfield and all pro safeties out so I like that matchup Bucks also been getting lucky I mean they're probably going to win that division but if you look there are five wins this year their last five wins. Panthers and O.T. should have lost Raiders, Giants with DeVito, Saints with Rattler, and Eagles without, two months ago, Eagles without all their receivers and their offensive linemen. That's their last five wins.

Opponents are also 60% on field goals. They've had 21 fumbles, lost only five of them. And they've been really good in the Red Zone, like a little too good in Charters. Red Zone D is elite. And so I think this is a good matchup for the Charters to bounce back, especially with McConkey in the lineup. And then the ugliest one, I bet the Panthers is a favorite, minus two and a half, minus 120. It's going up to three.

This is a horrible spot for the Cowboys. Season basically ended. Your more offensive line injuries, you lost overshone, short week going on the road to play Carolina. It could come out super flat here. Carolina still cares. They're playing hard. Bryce Young looks so much better. And the only thing that the Cowboys do well is they get pressure.

Panthers have one of the best offensive lines in terms of pass traction. And Bryce Young, under pressure has been really good. They easily could have beat the Eagles, Chiefs, and Bucks. Three straight weeks. You know, a drop pass, a bad review. Panthers are hot, bro. They're hot. They're the hottest losing team in the league right now.

And Cooper Rush has been metricically, he's been almost, if you just look at EPA plus complete percentage over our expansion, almost as bad as Drew Locke since he took over. And over that time, Bryce Young statistically been, like, average, which is so much better than he's been. And then, like, big time throw rate. He's top five. He's hanging in there.

He's smiling. It looks like he's having fun. He's actually, like, yelling at the guys. Like, it's a whole different person. Canales, like, fixed his footwork, and he just got confidence. He needed a couple games playing well to just psychologically be okay in the pocket. And their defense is a bit underrated. It's still really bad, but they got healthier.

Like, you get Juan and back. You get a bunch. They were so beat up early in the season. So I like the band. Panthers is a favorite, as crazy as that sounds. But I still think they're undervalue. They've covered five straight. I like that, Stucky.

Well, let's watch the Panthers stay hot. Let's enjoy Army Navy. And we got a good Sunday coming up. So we only got so many of these left. So we got to really, really enjoy them. I don't even want to hear that. I don't even want to hear that. I don't even want it.

That includes playoffs. Yeah. I mean, this is week 15. So after this, 16, 17, 18, wild card, divisional conference, Super Bowl. So while you're listening to this, You still have eight left, so I don't want to shortchange anyone. It goes quick.

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