The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 & Out - NFL & CFB Best Bets: NFL's Playoff Weekend & College Football Playoff's National Championship Game

Episode Date: January 15, 2026

John is joined by betting guru, Stuckey from The Action Network to break down the upcoming HUGE weekend in the NFL and the College Football National Championship Game. They dive into all the action, key storylines, and deliver their expert insight on where the value is for bettors. The action starts on Thursday and they’ve got you covered with sharp analysis and some of the best bets to make this weekend. Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest.  All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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This week on Crimless, Rory and I welcome a very special guest. When I did podcasts, I wear my sleep masks. I like where this is going. So if you guys will indulge me. That's right, the incredibly talented and hilarious Will Ferrell on an episode dedicated to crimes committed by people named Will Ferrell. You're good for 300 crimes? Yeah. We got two.

I'm ready to go right up to present day. Listen to Crimless on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. The volume. What is going on, everybody, John Middlecop, 3 and Out podcast. How are we doing? Presented by my friends at Zone Pouches. Today we will be talking to Stucky. We recorded on Wednesday.

If you're listening to this, either headed to the hospital, in the hospital, maybe have a kid by now. I don't yet. We'll see if we get pushed back for emergencies, but we are, I don't mean our emergency. I'm just saying if C-section, if there are other emergency bursts, we get pushed back. So it's a fluid situation. But we'll have Stucky on today, talk about the games. We'll look back a little bit and talk about at the end the college football national championship. Also up on Netflix, Stucky's Netflix debut. And yeah, so make sure you check that out. We have all of our content up there. Obviously, if you're listening, audio, Spotify, Apple, subscribe to the podcast.

If you listen on Collins, I appreciate you doing that. Tomorrow, we recorded with Josh Pate. It looks like ESPN's about to build a show around the guy. Fellow ball brother, that will be tomorrow. And, yeah, it's a game plan for the week. So let's just, you guys know him. He's here every week. Let's dive into my main man Stucky.

Okay, we've been doing this every week for years. For those of you watching that are new to this, This is my good friend Stucky. He is a fellow degenerate gambler, works for the Action Network. You can find him all over the place. Big bets on campus, guys dialed in on college, football and basketball, and knows the National Football League from a gambling standpoint as well as anyone I've ever been associated with. So we do this all throughout the football season,

and he just had a baby as well. So he's got a new baby. He's got basketball season and full swing. He's got the NFL playoffs. Probably slept. My guess would be over under eight hours this entire week. And going right into a massive, massive weekend for the National Football League. Stucky, how are you holding up?

Yeah, under on that. And yeah, everything's going well. I had a rough wild card weekend. I loved, loved my card. And I mean, Jaggs' first half was one of my favorite bets of the year. And Jaggs' first half money line had them, I think, plus 102, closed like minus 145. They missed a fuel goal. Parker Washington gets hurt.

Trevor Lawrence's shin goes down. That was rough. The Packers were one of my favorite bets. That was absolute pain. It was only the second time in playoff history. a team has scored 25 or more points in the fourth quarter and or overtime in a 15 plus point comeback. The other was the Falcons against the Patriots in the Super Bowl,

or I should say the Patriots against the Falcons of Super Bowl when they were down 283. That was one of my biggest losses ever. I had the Falcons plus four and a half, one of the most painful losses and one of the biggest financially. So that was like reliving. that. How cocky were you at 283 that day?

Yeah, I thought it was over. And I mean, the sequence of events that had to happen. I mean, this is what Bears games have been like all season, but you had McManus missing kicks left and right. The fourth and eight, that was the game. I mean, you have to give Caleb credit for that throw

on fourth and eight. But if they don't call the false start, the ball snap. over his head the game's over. If they don't convert that fourth and eight, the Packers of the ball at midfield, up 11 with six to go. But yeah, I thought it was over. And then when they scored again, then I got a little nervous. Then when I scored again, I go up 11, I thought it was over. But then after that fourth and eight, I was like, you never know of this Bears team. I've seen this story. And they get the two-point conversion. The Packers miss more kicks. I mean, if you think

about it, if they just, the margins are so thin in the NFL playoffs from a betting perspective. then just in how these games are decided. And, I mean, the Jags, they have an all-pro kicker to make 20 kicks in a row. They miss a kick at the end of the first half, which is like a shocking miss, even though it was from like 52. Yeah. That ends up being the margin. The Packers, if they make any of those kicks, if McManus makes any of those kicks at the extra point or any of the fuel goals, they miss a kick at the end of the first half too. Then at the end, when they're at the 20-yard line, I mean, McManus would probably miss it again.

again. But you could kick a fuel goal to either tied or win it, and you don't need a touchdown there. So the margins are very thin. And then I had the Chargers, which I was just dead wrong on. I mean, Herbert was horrifying.

I mean, you could blame the offensive line, you could blame the game plan. I don't care. Like, in the first half, he had pockets to throw. He had clean pockets, and he couldn't make throws. He looked gun-shy. He looked like a rookie. I mean, that was the worst I've ever seen in play.

And credit to the Patriots, apparently they were, the Charter's offense was confused, but Herbert missed throws, missed wide open guys, and just looked gun shy. So, yeah, didn't get much right on the weekend. Did have some Eagles 49ers under, which I had a sweat. But, yeah, a couple bad breaks,

but that'll happen. What were you saying? A couple situations. The Jags game, when they only have the one timeout and there's a minute left, would you have knelt the ball, made them burn it, and then get it down,

or I guess they were out of timeout. So you kneel the ball, you get it to like, what, 30 second range to be safe, to give yourselves a little time. I thought, and I get it, you're on the road,

but I was like, man, this team is a great kicker. The kickoff rule now, shortens the field. I'm all four. I get it. You can't get tricky,

but you have the best player, you know, on the planet who's dominating this game. The Tush Push had been working or the Josh Push or whatever you want to call it. That was a pretty big risk by McDermott that ended up paying off because they get the pick, whatever, a couple of plays later. But I was like, damn, that's, that was crazy, I thought. 1,000 percent. I tweeted it out immediately. I said, you have to need, you have to quick knee and then score.

What would you ran it down to, like 25? Yeah, 25 seconds, because you also had a timeout. Yeah. So they had a couple. Yeah, so like time wasn't an issue for you. But just think about it from a probability standpoint. Like if the chances of you scoring a touchdown on second, third, and fourth in goal, you can get three chances with Josh Allen and the touch. I mean, is 99%.

Maybe 98%. You could have a false start, right? There could be a fumble and snap. That could happen on first down, too. But those chances are so much higher than the chances of you scoring right away and then kicking off. There was a chance to Jagstarts at the 35. Cam Little was making 70 yards in pregame warmups. He's two of two from 67 plus in his career.

the rest of the NFL, in NFL history, all of the kickers are 0 of 22 from 67 plus. You might only need one first down to get a fuel range. That probability is so much higher. So they completely botched it. I got away with it because Lawrence threw a pick, but he also missed the touch. There was a wide open guy on that play that could have ran for a touchdown. I thought McDermott completely botched that. You have to go down there.

And the other, there's two other reasons why you know that was the bad move. that was the incorrect move from a game theory perspective. One, the Jags money line were the bill's live money line in the live market. When they scored on first down, their odds went down to win the game. So like the market would say, okay, the probability of them winning the game is lower than if they would have waited. And number two, the Jags let them score. So the Jags knew that they needed to let the bills score there to get them the best chance to tie the game and to force overtime. So, yeah, it was the wrong move.

McDermott almost pulled a, you know, Chief's 13-second repeat from a couple years ago when they messed up the kickoff and then they let Kelsey catch a pass at the scene to get in a field orange. Now, no one will ever talk about it again because Lawrence threw a pick, but I thought. it was clearly the wrong move, but they got away with it. Alan was incredible. And, I mean, yeah, you just have to go down there. There's no way that they're stopping Alan on three downs from the one. Yeah, I mean, I'm totally with you. Obviously, the Eagle game, you know, to lose to that 49er team,

Wallow from practice squads to Eric Hendricks, who was kind of out of the league. trending toward his career being over, making game-winning plays against you. You know, the time, you know, Kyle is not a trick-play guy. You know, I can count on one hand. The trick plays he's running the last five years. But they've all come in big spots, one in the Super Bowl, one in that famous Debo threw a pass to Jennings against the Rams,

week 18. The Niners had to win to get in the division. They were getting blown out in the first half. I was actually at that game. So he's not, Kyle's, you know, not some. you know, Ben Johnson with the trick play. So when he busts him out, you know, he clearly he's on tilt, knowing his season was, you know, on the line, obviously in a playoff game it is, but the underdog mentality, we'll get into that game a little bit later against Seattle. I think, you know, they might need like

a fake pun or a fake field goal. They should be using some of that type stuff this week, potentially. But man, that was, you know, looking back, it's one of those, I didn't have much faith just because and part of it was, you know, recency biased. It wasn't even just the Seattle game. It was the week before against Chicago when they were just scoring it willy like this defense is just out of bodies but i mean what you you know we talk a lot about coaching performances but kyle and sala coming out of that i mean that's a pretty legendary performance by those two guys yeah unbelievable they deserve all the credit that's the beautiful thing about and it makes it tough to bet on you know obviously lines are really efficient this time of the year but this is you know i'll spend all week

diving into tendencies and NFL teams change on a week-to-week basis. But especially in the playoffs, you can flip, right? And that's when you can flip everything, these highest leverage games. But I thought Sala did a tremendous job with his fifth, sixth, sixth, and seventh string linebackers. And, you know, part of what, you know, like Sala deserves a ton of credit for what he's working with and what he's done earlier. But part of that was the story of the Eagles all year. Yeah. I mean, this is a team.

They went 20, they went a stretch after they went on a 96-yard touchdown drive. They went 27 plays for 24 yards over. This happened all year, no matter who they played. And it is just how many hitches can you run? They couldn't run the ball on anybody. But I thought Shattahan, because that Eagles defense, which was healthy too, was one of the most elite units in the NFL all year. additionally you had wind going up against that defense going up against a fan geo defense that in

four head-to-head meetings shanahan never cleared 15 points to average 10.25 points per game clearly had shenan's number so he made i just thought he called a hell of a game used the trick play at the right time um i didn't think they were going to be able to hit that many pass explosives i mean demarkis Robinson looked like, you know, Jerry Rice out there. So I thought Shanna Ann was unbelievable. To lose Kittle to go that drive to take the lead was awesome. But it also was a fitting end and a microcosm of the entire season for the Eagles. Although I didn't expect a defense to get torched like that. But the offense, it was a lot. overdue that that's how they would

that they would end their season because Petula and that offense it was just a disaster from day one. Petula and you've been rattling off stats statistically he is dramatically worse than the Ben Johnson offense which was obviously struggled

but the quarterback has to get some shit I mean he doesn't want to run anymore that would have been a game Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen would have ran for 85 to 100 yards he could and the one play that got called Two high shells. The one play that got called back, he could have had that play all game long.

Quarterback sweeps, quarterback, but he doesn't want to do it, clearly. Because it's not like the staff's like, let's just not run Jalen. They're not that dumb. It's the quarterback. I told this to Colin on Sunday night. I think he views himself like Russell did, like once they won the Super Bowl, like, I'm a pocket quarterback. I'm not running anymore.

And Russell was even less of a runner than Jaylon. Like, Jalen is a natural runner in the open field, but he just doesn't want to do it. because you should have called, like, minimum, like, five quarterback powers. A couple of them probably would have hit for, like, 20 yards. Yeah, it was, that was the defense that you do it against. And, yeah, there's a, but Patoa doesn't, he gets a, he deserves a ton of blame, but certainly not all of it. Hurts should get a lot.

The offensive line also is way worse. I mean, how many times, again, no matter who they played, is Barclay, it's not like Barclay lost a step. You can see him once he hit, once he is a hole. stills the same explosives. How many times all year they hand the ball up the Barclay and immediately he's...

Led the league. Led the league touches behind the back field. You were behind the line of scrimmage. And like the 49ers, run defense, the team that doesn't get pressure, they were in the back field all day. So the offensive line

deserved some blame as well. And then I think Siriani and how... I don't know, his... The offense was almost... it kind of took on like his arrogance. Like they would just,

they felt like they were just like too cool for school sometimes and they would put a drive together and then they would just relax days. There was never any energy. But when he went after, he went after A.J. Brown for not getting off the sidelines. They get in each other's face. And then A.J. Brown doesn't have a catch the rest of the day.

AJ Brown seems like he's that type of guy that is just like, all right, I'm checking out of you. Like Kobe. I ain't shooting. Yeah, you have to know how to handle the personalities of your team. I would be shocked if he's back in Philly if Sieriani is. Stucky, but A.J. Brown is a lock to be traded in the next, probably after the combine. It'll be announced.

He's been traded. It has to be. But, like, yeah, what a waste. You have, they have town. Like, you have A.J. Brown, DeMonte Smith, Sequin Barkley, you know, Dallas Goddard on paper you of one of the better offensive lines. And what a waste for that offense and a talent of roster. But credit to the 49ers for going on the road and getting a win that not a lot of people saw, including myself, it's all happening. Do you consider yourself, you know, when people said the sharps are on so-and-so, do you consider yourself a sharp?

I would, I mean, yeah, I would say so. And it's all around. Like there's going to be when one of the things that I will say is that when like last week the books, they said the sharp sides were like the Jags. Pittsburgh. Packers. Yeah, the Steelers. I wasn't on the Steelers, but I was on the Jags, the Packers. The Eagles at an early number.

And so I tend to be on similar. sides. But the number one, there's two key points here. The numbers matter. So like when sports was to come out and say like our sharper accounts, and these are accounts that are that are respected and that they'll move on. And you know, you could come in just a guy off the street or Floyd Mayweather and bet even way bigger than some of these respect accounts. And they're not going to move off it. But these sharp accounts that win, they'll move the line or respect it based on where some of these accounts are betting. But number one, the numbers matter.

So like there was sharp money on the Eagles, but that was, you know, it opened three and a half. It got up to six. There also was some sharp money that came in on the 49ers at six, right? So numbers matter. There's different entry points. And then there's also going to be conflicting. You know, some sharp groups might like, you know, like the jags, but there was also some short money that came under the bills when they got to

plus two, plus two and a half. So all of that is just speaking in general, but it was a rough weekend for a lot of sharp betters and including myself. But that's what happens in small sample size. You really just try to get the best of the number, which I did, so I can't complain too much. And then you're betting on football games with small margins at an oblong ball. Sometimes you're going get bounces sometimes you're not um but yeah that's i would assume this week for the sharp sides i don't even know i would assume like new england it under it opened under three i'm assuming there was probably some sharp early money um rams yeah i think the rams are probably going to be have more sharp money there um and then saturday i don't i could see i think there i think there's

going to be sharp money on both the buffalo and denver and san fran seattle i think there was early sharp money on seattle like just real early and then i could see some sharp money on like san fran whenever it gets above seven and then i think inevitably it's going to settle it at seven um but i don't you might have i think you'll have some sharp money on the denver buffalo under which i like um and Yeah, other than that, there obviously was Sharp Money on the Rams Bears under because that to move it from, it was back off to 51 and a half. And it came down to 48 and a half. That's a pretty substantial move.

But these things can change later in the week as limits get even higher. So we'll see. But last week it was it was rough for sharp better. That'll have one weekend, a lot of variance. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor Hard Rock Bet. with Miami making the nattie, you know Hard Rock Stadium will be rocking. And if you're going to the game,

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We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember.

I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas.

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Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

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Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Well, let's just start with the bills. And I think it's fair to say when you get a number like this that hovers between, you know, bills right now, a hard rock bet, as of we're recording this on Wednesday, you know, are minus one on the road against Denver. the number shifted around a little bit, but like you said to me, offline, that the money line really reflects that this game's a coin flip game.

You know, when you look at Denver, even if I give them a pass, let's just say for sake of argument, we remove the Charger game. They're rolling out Trey Lance, who's probably not a 2D player in the NFL. The previous week, they played the Raiders on that, whatever, was it Christmas or Christmas Eve?

Division game, weird thing, just let's say we removed that. The previous time when they played Jacksonville, which was a massive game at the time, they kind of got worked. Not kind of. They did. And their defense, you know, like when you watch the Eagles or you watch Seattle, there's a physicality to their defense.

I think when you watch Denver, there's more speed-oriented. And I just think that, like, the question on Denver, obviously, Bo Nix has been the big kind of elephant in the room. But if their defense isn't as dominant, like they don't look like Houston or something right now. that you go, how good is this team? The quarterback's never proven anything, and he's been very iffy most of the season. And clearly, like, he was trying in those last couple games

and didn't look great. The bills, we talked about it last week, I just took Josh, his bet on Josh, and it worked. And, I mean, the difference in that game, I thought Trevor was all over the place. Liam Cohen probably should have ran the ball more. They were having much success. I mean, part of the deal against Buffalo,

and you saw this last year with your squad, Baltimore, like lean on him physically. They're not. They want you to throw the ball. Yeah. What are you guys doing? So I think this is a tough spot. You know, Denver just, they had a lot of question marks.

Now, maybe just we look back in a year. They answer them over the next couple weeks, and we don't think about them like that. But I'm taking the bills. I'm just going to hammer a money line in this game. And just like I said last week, if they beat this Jags team, I'm just going to hammer them until they lose. And that's my mindset here. The other thing is, I was at the dog park the other day. And we started talking to this lady, and she comes up,

She's like, oh, is your wife the one that's pregnant? I'm like, yeah. And we's like, the guy was wearing a Broncos sweatshirt. I'm like, oh, you're from Colorado? He's like, yeah, we lived there for 40 years, right? We bought a house here forever. We came over here during the winter. Big Bronco fans.

I'm like, oh, it's probably cold, snowy week. He's like, actually, I just text my son. It's 60 degrees. And I look today, the sun's going to be out. And it's like in the 50s. So this is not some frigid cold Denver Bronco mile high game. It's not quite Jacksonville. where people are in the pool,

but at least based on what I saw, could be potentially a nice afternoon, you know, day game. So that to me benefits Josh Allen, does it not? So I'm taking the bills in this game. Yeah, I, so I agree with it. The Broncos defense is, it's not as elite as Seattle and Houston.

It's very good. And they might get Dre Greenlaw back. Which helps their physicality. Yeah, which they need. I mean, last year, so these teams met last year in the playoffs. And the Bills won 31-7 in the first round. The Broncos linebacker and core, linebacker core, was decimated by injury. They had in-game injuries.

And it wasn't as good as what it would be, especially if Greenlaw's back. And, you know, they added who funga, who provides some more physicality as well. the run game. Now you're going to have Locke who is vulnerable at safety because their starting safety is out with an injury, Brandon Jones. But yeah, this, so, and what happened in that game is the bills just ran all over them. And they just leaned on Denver. I don't think they'll be able to do that as successfully here, but I do think that they'll have success running the ball. Because they didn't really against Jacksonville, right? Cook was kind of a non-factor in that game. Yeah, Jacksonville Z is, Rundee has been elite all year.

They had a top five Rundi. Now, on paper, the Broncos have a top five Rundi, but when they stepped up and faced some teams that can run the ball, like some of the top tier running teams, and they didn't face a lot. They weren't as dominant. So I think the bills have to lean on the ground game here. I'm so curious to see what they do from,

because here, so for starters, I did play the under. I don't blame you for taking, I mean, if you just need to win a game, historically, like on the money line as a dog or as a favorite of under a fuel goal, Josh Allen is, you know, just to win the game is the most profitable quarterback in NFL history. And he just might be the Mahomes of this year, right? Like, who cares? I have Josh Allen. Like, right? But last year it was, you know, in years prior, it was just who cares? Why, Patrick Mahomes? It's like it didn't matter. You just bet the chiefs to win the game. And that's basically

what happened last week, right? Like, the Jags were, they had the game, but Josh Allen just, despite all the injuries, he just made plays when he had to at the end, and that could happen here. You agree to if they win this game? So they've, I mean, the Jags, obviously, with the hottest team coming in the playoffs, potentially in the league, then you go on the road to the number one seat beat him. And more than likely, I guess Houston will get into that game, who beat the shit out of the bills early this season, might be. be a tough matchup for him. So actually it might not be as easy to just be like they're just going to win the Super Bowl.

The Houston thing, I guess we'll get to that in a minute. Never mind. Houston's a tough matchup for the bills. Yeah. I mean, going to going to New England wouldn't be easy. I mean, both those games were very close during the year. As far, like, Alan will have to earn it. I know that there's no Mahomes, no Lamar, no Barrow in it, but going on the road to Jacksonville,

it's a shame for Jack that those two teams had to play each other because both those teams could have went to the Super Bowl. and the Jags got screwed. They win the division. They have to play Buffalo. Texans finish in second, get to play the Steelers. But the Texans passers.

Jags would have rather played the Steelers. They probably would have won by the same margin. Absolutely. The Jags, you know, when the, the Bills played the Falcons and lost, the Texans, those pass rushes, they were able to get to Allen and give them some issues. So maybe this Broncos pass rush.

rush can do the same because it isn't a great matchup for the bill's offense they're not alan's numbers this year are significantly worse against man coverage now last week he got to face a zone heavy defense and the reason for that is it's not josh allen it's that he doesn't have receivers that can get any separation so it's hard for me to see their receivers getting and their receiving corps is decimated now like curtis samuel just got designated to come back off iR probably going to need him. They only have three, yesterday they only had three healthy receivers on the roster.

One of them is a guy you've been healthy scratching. You know, Shakir's been good, but McMillan's pretty good in the slot. And then you have Certan. I'm curious to see what they do with him. I mean, you use him on like Kincaid sometimes because there's just,

they're going to be able to man up, load the box, bring the blitz. And it's going to be hard for Alan to have enough time because his receivers just aren't going to get any separation. because the Broncos are going to play a ton of men. They blitz. And it's just going to be tough.

So the builds are going to lean on the ground game here. It's going to keep the clock moving. I'm curious to see if they completely switch it up. If they go three, if they go like two, three tight end sets and try to attack the linebackers and the safeties of Denver. So I'm super curious to see what they do schematically. You got to remember Josh Allen's also dealing with some injuries on a short week. We'll see how banged up.

is he is going to take hits against Denver. But the clock's going to be moving. I think they're going to lean on the ground game, especially early on. And then on the other side of the ball, they could get Ed Oliver back as well. He was just designated off. I saw that. That would be big for their defensive line. But McDermott usually does a good job in game planning, scheming, disguising looks in these big high leverage games.

They're going to play a ton of too high. They take away the explosive play. That's kind of what Bo Nix does. But Bo Nix will, you know, he's very in. consistent on a down-to-down basis, but then he'll hit the splash play every once in a while. The bills don't give that up. Play a ton of too high. Against too high, Knicks doesn't really take chances. He's the lowest yards per attempt in the league. He's going to take those short passes. I also think Peyton is going to rely on his defense, which means he's going to heavy dose of run here.

He knows that's where the bills are the weakest. He's usually smart about that. So I think both teams are going to be running a ton, relying on field position, clock will be running. great game. This is a great game. Yeah, it'll be good. So I bet the under, the bill, I think the bill's only goal is, Knicks is going to have to use his legs here. The bills struggle with, can struggle with mobile quarterbacks. I think the bill's only goal is, you know, try to run the ball, keep the game close until the fourth quarter, and then you have Josh Allen, they have Bo Nix. And, uh, you just want to be in a position where Josh Allen, needs to go win the game.

And more times than not, he's going to go do that. But I think this will be lower scoring field position battle, especially early on. Hey, it's us to Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, Nick? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember.

I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, Jonas, and offered it up as a potential. title for the podcast.

But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Jacob Kingston grew up in an isolated polygamous sect. We were God's chosen, kingdom on earth.

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Jacob told Levan, you're ruining my life. Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies,

and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slic Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. One thing I was told, and 49er players have been saying, I mean, it goes back to the Atlanta Falcons,

that one of Kyle's strengths is during the week when he does these game plans, he's so good at dissecting the defense when he tells you, get to this spot, it'll be wide open. Run this play at this time, it'll work. And he's kind of a genius like that because he's really, he has a great mind on the defensive side of the ball. So when you do something like Fangio, one thing I think they felt after the game is like, we kind of knew where they were going to line up. Obviously, they have good players, but we weren't getting tricked by stuff. And the thing that happened in that Seattle game a couple weeks ago, you know, from just some sources is,

and I think this is what makes Mike so special. He's been doing it, you know, his whole career, is they thought they would get something and guys would be in completely different spots once the ball was snapped. And his deciphering and disguising shit was all over the place. I'm not even talking about the D-line whooping the O line. I'm just talking about in coverage, guys are all over the map when the 49ers have game planned against something else. So, I mean, Purdy's going back there thinking X and he's getting Y. And it really threw them off.

We're against Fangio, they went back seeing X and they were getting X. They just had to execute it. So, you know, I think they can prepare, you know, obviously they got screwed a little bit by the timing, right? Ideally, you'd play Sunday. They've kind of got a couple short weeks. but like they don't really have like the prep's already done right they just played him sunday the Seattle didn't play an extra game so really they can double down and like what could we have done a little different and like build off what we thought coming into that game and make

adjustments kind of a unique spot for the 49ers from a game plan perspective in a shitty week because they just probably had an incredible game plan playing for the number one seed that didn't work and then they can kind of pivot off that where Seattle you know it's like you just you just You know you're going to get some different swings now from them that you just saw. So I think the 49ers to have a chance in this game. And to me, the key is someone asked me, it's like, well, the two guys ran for 170 yards. And there was a point in that Eagle game when it was 13 to 7 Eagles, they had the ball and the time of possession was like 18 to 6.

I was like, the Niners are in trouble. Yeah, the Eagles just went on a nine-minute, 18-play touchdown. If that takes place in Seattle, they will lose the time of possession thing again. so you just have to get for some more punts and not just give them drives. Even if they're not scoring points that just lasts seven, eight minutes, because then that puts so much pressure if you go three and out, it feels like a disastrous quarter. So I do think, Kyle, this is a game again.

It's like, can you run a fake field goal or a fake punt? Like, you're going to have to do one of those. You probably can't run the wide receiver pass again. But I do think the 49ers are a pretty live dog in this spot, and let's face it, you know, there is a ton of pressure on Sam in this game. to just like he played really well last week or whenever they won 13 to 3. I know that they didn't score many points, but he was 20, 26, he was efficient, he was just completely under control.

If he plays again like that and their defense plays, they'll win. But like, we've seen to say I'm in a couple of these high leverage spots and it didn't go as well. Now, do the 49ers have the defense to really, you know, kind of put him on tilt? I don't know. But to me, it starts with, can you just neutralize the run game? Because if you remove the first run of the game where Seekwon win, I think, for like 30 yards, he really had 25 carries for like 70 yards like you'll live with that all day it it was just the over and over in that Saturday night game of just the five seven five it's like it just kills you so to me stop the run it's like okay Sam throw for 250 300 yards I can't wait for this game.

Now, my favorite part about the playoffs just from a football fan perspective is the coaching matchups. And look at the NFC. I mean, you have Ben Johnson versus McVeigh, and you have Kyle versus McDonald. And if we had a coaching draft, I mean, would you say these four guys

would go in the top six? Yes, yeah, for sure. If you just say, hey, age doesn't matter. Let's say Andy goes one. would these be the next four picks in some order? Yeah. I get Mike's a defensive guy, but I think he still ain't falling far. Yeah.

Let me look at the... Kevin O'Connell would go high. Brable would go in the top ten. D'emico would be a sleeper, defensive guy. They would go high, high-level guy. No, I would take all for these. All four of them for anyone else, I think. at the moment.

Although I do think, now he's still new to the job, but I do think very, very highly of Liam Cohen. So he, but I mean, it's only one year. He'd go high to. Siriani go top 20, you think? I don't know. I mean, like, what does, what does, like,

I struggle with how valuable is Siriani? Like, what does he do? right like he won a super bowl and you have to give him credit for that but like he had right two really good coordinators he has one of the most talented rosters is the organization is run very well you have great GM yeah so much talent on that roster what does he really do supposed to be an offensive guy so you don't have the coordinator this year and the offense falls apart um like if you remove him from that team last year, did they still win the Super Bowl?

I do think he's pretty sharp with like some in-game stuff and understanding like game and time and clock management, but I wouldn't have him near the top. So, but yeah, these coaching matchups are awesome. So I kind of wanted to, when these two teams met in week 18,

When I was talking about this game, I told you I liked the under. It was that opened at like 50. I was like, that's way too high for these teams. And it came down to like 47 and a half, I think. But now this total is at like 44.5. I'm thinking, I kind of want to bet the over. I think it's come down a bit too much. But this will all come down to the battle between Shanahan and McDonald.

And what I mean by that is that if McDonald's dominates, because McDonald came out, he said, well, he has some other looks that he has in his back pocket that he didn't show in the week 18 game. So you're going to get some other looks here. So can Shanahan anticipate, based on what they saw in week 18 that they weren't expecting, what new does McDonald have? What does Shanahan have to kind of counteract that? And can the 49ers hit some explosive plays and move the ball through the air? You're going to have Trent Williams this time around, but you're not going to have Kittle. You could have Ricky Pearsall, which would be massive.

do you think he's going to play? I would not be confident. Yeah, that's what I figured. But he was, they, these two, do you remember, these two teams played in week one? And both the times they played, the scores are super low scoring, but there's been a bunch of scoring opportunities where no one scored. Like, you know, kidd'll miss the majority of that game, right? He pulls hands through it after a couple series. And Purdy threw for what, 360, I think.

And. Good weather game. What's the weather? week there. I think it's going to be fine. Okay. So Pierce all had a big dad. I think you had four catches for 110 in that game. But if the 49ers, so what you can cross off here is the 49ers will not be able to run the ball. That's just going to be a fact. Number one, Seattle's run defense is historically good. They're the best run. defense in the NFL by a wide margin.

You can't run on them. No one can run on them. It's almost impossible. Now you're going to have to still do it some, but they're not, they're not going to have success running ball, especially now they don't kittle, who's one of your keys to your run game. But you'll have Williams this time around. Purdy should have a bit more time. Can he avoid the mistakes, right? I think he has, I think he's made a ton of mistakes whenever he's faced McDonald's defense. Go back to that Ravens, 49ers game that cost him. You're like four picks.

Yeah. So can he avoid the mistakes? Like we'd get teeny to throw a pick, but that was tipped and then bounced off in McCaffrey's arms. But can he move the ball through the air against this complex changing? That's going to come down to what Shanna Ann has dialed up where he has identified the potential weaknesses are in that coverage. Like there was definitely some certain areas of the field that he identified against that Fangio defense that they took advantage of on the left side. and it was a beautiful game plan. And I agree with you, they're going to have to get aggressive

and then try some trick plays. And so if they're able to do that and, you know, score and put touchdowns on the board, then that puts pressure on Sam Darnold to have to throw the ball, and then he could make mistakes. The problem is the 49ers don't get a ton of pressure. So I'm also curious to see how does Sala play this.

the Seahawks should have their left tackle back. They could get a Royal back at Tide End who kind of helps stretch defenses a bunch. But the Seattle offense hasn't been great for a month and a half. Their offense has been solved a bit. But does Salas say, I'm just going to play. They play too high on 67% of their snaps against Eagles played a ton of quarters coverage. They were just trying to take away the explosive plays. They know their defense doesn't have a ton of talent.

So it's like prevent the explosive plays. We're just going to stop you in the red zone. hope you make the mistake and then, you know, we just don't want to get up those big plays. Does he take that same approach or does he bring his safeties more down and try to stop that run game because Seattle was doing whatever wanted on the ground? That so, but it all comes down to what that Kyle versus McDonald chess match because if Kyle's able to move the ball and is able, you know, to identify some of those weaknesses, then this is going to be, I think this game will go over and it could be like,

27. I could see being 2720. I could see the 49ers on the shot to pull off the upset. But if Chan is, if they're not able to move the ball and Purdy's under pressure, and I know they're not going to be able to run the ball, what McDonald will do is park it. And he's going to tell, he knows, I don't, my defense is dominating this game. I'm not letting Darnell lose it. And then they're just going to run it. And then they're going to, you're going to have these long drives.

and then the over is going to have no chance and they're just going to say look, we're not. And he's the most conservative coach doesn't go for it on fourth downs, kicks field goals. So that's going to dictate the side if the four-niners have a chance. That's that chess match. How's it going to play? I don't know. I'm taking the Niners seven points.

I mean, this game was what, two and a half a couple weeks ago. I think obviously we witnessed that game. It was like, Jesus. Now, Trent didn't play. Pleasant's getting, you know, spun like a draught. And Purdy, by the end of the game, it felt like, God, is he going to die in this game? So, I mean, that's part of it. The 49ers, when their O-line does play bad, it does feel like they can get physically overwhelmed.

And this is one of the units that, God, they've been good. So to me, it's like, can you just neutralize that front a little bit? They always say, Purdy's going to have to run around no matter who they play. But, like, if it's just, if it looks like Aaron Rogers against the Texas, yeah, they're going to get killed, right? And the score might not even reflect, quote, unquote, killed. it could be like 17 to 7 final score, but it'll just be like a bludgeoning, you know? Yeah, and you'll feel like they have no chance to win it.

But yeah, Shanahan just has to draw, he has to find a way like he did last week against a team that doesn't give up explosive plays, like Seattle, find ways. It would be a big boost of pure soccer play and looked healthy, but with Robinson, Jennings, I'm sure there's going to be a ton of designed stuff for McCaffrey out of the backfield.

and then Hurdy just has to avoid forcing throws. Now, it's a fine balance. You've got to hit some explosives. You're not going to run the ball, but the Seattle defense will take it away and they'll score. So, yeah, early in this game, we'll tell you, because if the 49ers are struggling, this game is going to die because the Seahawks are just going to run it.

Totally. And then punt it and rely on their day and field goals. And no way. Shaheed, too, is a little bit of a curveball, right, as a return man. Yeah. Last week, Brian Robinson, like, barely was making it to the 25. Like, they were kicking it to him. Sky Moore had won and it did not go well.

I mean, part of it was like they were starting like old school long NFL drives. They didn't have any like, oh, got to the 40. You know, it was like that that they're going to need a little bit more juice on, especially if Jason, let's just say Myers kicks like three field goals. Like you're going to get some kickoff return opportunities. The Robinson thing, I don't know what was going on, but he was going nowhere. He was just running the back of guys. Like, bro, this is a game that's going to be decided by a couple yards here.

This is not going to work out. And if Shaheed gives them some explosive plays and all of a sudden they get a drive from the 50, it's shit like that you're talking about that these games all come down to small margins that something I noticed big time. Like, this is not ideal here. Yeah, the Jets somehow had a historically good special teams this year. It's the only thing they did well. If folk is a kicker, really good return units, coverage units. The Seahawks were right behind.

them. If you look at a lot of the overall metrics, their special teams are very, very good. I think the 49ers were around league average, but that could be some hidden edge for Seattle. But Kyle has to be aggressive here. I can't wait for the chess match. Like whenever you doubt, like Chanan,

9 and 4 in the playoffs. Yeah, so I don't blame me for taking the points here. 9 and 4 in the playoffs, and a lot of those, this isn't like the Belichick, you know, Brady Patriots. they were underdogs in a lot of those wins, right? Yeah. So it's, and pretty, not like, you know, coin flip games.

These were like over a field goal underdogs, you know, at Dallas, at Green Bay, at Philly. I mean, those were games that most Niners fans, like, yeah, we're probably not going to win. You know, it's like, and that's what makes a great coach. When people are like, yeah, I'm probably not going to win. And then you get to the point where it's like, you just can't doubt the guy because his teams, I don't know mentally, what the preparation going into the game, there's like a belief. and then you just got to make the game weird. So it's just a great game.

It really is. To me, it's the best game of the weekend. Yeah, I can't wait for it. The other thing is Donald struggles more against too high, which you would assume Salo. He ran a ton of. That's usually what he wants to do, take away the explosive. But then you leave yourself vulnerable to the run game.

So that, you obviously don't just run nothing but too high. I guess it was 66%. But I'm curious to see that percentage. But if the 49ers is able to score, you make Donald have to throw, and be more aggressive. And then in those zones, he's more likely to make a mistake. And that's where you can really win this game.

So you'll know early on in this game how it's going to go. I'm not overthinking the same. I'm taking the Texans. Obviously, CJ makes you a little nervous. I was looking at all the games they play. And I was like, if you remove the Chargers, who's the best defense that the Patriots have played, I mean, they got the Browns in New England.

Yeah, Browns aren't the same away from home. No, so it's like not really. anybody. And that game was weird last week. If Herbert hadn't played, I mean, that's as bad as it gets. It was 9 to 3 going in the fourth quarter. And your quarterback, $50 million guy that a lot of people like myself defend is just playing a game like he's fucking Deshaun Kaiser or something. You're like, what is going on here? And it was still 9 to 3. Vrable has done an incredible job. The future is bright. They're going to have AJ Brown on the team next year probably. They'll be fine and they're going to be a legit Super Bowl contender in years.

I just don't know if they are right now. Drake was really good in the second half. And obviously the home field advantage, New England, the fans show they're up. They're used to winning. Place is going to be rocking. But that Houston defense, I mean, the Neil Hunter is going to look like Lawrence Taylor. And you also have Will Anderson and the team speed they have in the secondary Petrie. Probably one of the more fun players in the league.

Throwback to a guy like we grew up on. There were a bunch of guys like that in the league that would just could do it all and beat fucking knock the shit out of you who fungus kind of like that too but petrie feels like a little bit more dynamic in the open field um this again though i mean if they're quarterback against the patriots has four fumbles and a half loses a couple and throws a pick that it's just hits the guy in a numbers yeah they'll lose and to me the demico's sitting them down like cj you're the number two pick in the draft you come from ohio state you were a star player we need you to play like trento for a brad johnson buddy like let's let's calm it down a little bit it's on the

offensive coordinator, D'Amico, just, we don't need you to play hero ball because our defense is poised to just carry us. And if you're going to run the ball like that, it's like C.J. No turnovers. I feel like he plays like a guy trying to prove he's a star. It's like, bro, they don't need this right now. Purtie got $50 million a year, but just do what the coach tells you to do. Also, it wasn't his fault. When you run a flea, if I say, hey, a team runs a flea-flicker, don't you usually think about that like later in the game after you establish the run? Isn't that part of the play? Yes. You don't run in the first quarter.

No, that was bizarre. I have no idea on this game, to be honest. Part of it is I struggle to what to make of the past because of their schedule. They had the easiest schedule of any team over the past 30 years. So they played no defenses with a pulse until the Chargers, the first top 10 defense they played. Texans are another level, and their offense struggled. Like, May fumbled it a couple times, threw a pick. it wasn't the same smooth operation, as you would expect, as when they stepped up in class.

The same could be said of their defense, which hasn't, they played, like, the only offense with a poll, like the quarterbacks they faced over the course of the season. It was rookies, backups, guys were benched in, like, 11 of their wins. They faced Allen twice. They split, right, and they got torched in the second game. They didn't really face any other good quarterbacks. Then they faced Herbert and Herbert as a top 10 quarterback. Many have them in top five and they shut him down.

Now, was that the Chargers offensive line and Herbert? But that could look the same here. The Texans' offensive line isn't great. The running game isn't great. And, you know, Stroud could struggle in the pocket. You could have a similar game plan here. You know, blitz heavy, Stroud struggles against the Blitz. And this Texan's offense could look broken as it.

does at times. You got to remember, I mean, remember the Steelers defense has been pretty bad all year. But I just don't know enough about because I also saw Herbert missing throws and missing guys that were open. Guys were open. He's over three. He's airmailing them by like 10 feet. Wasn't even close. So even that game is hard for me to really measure what this Pats is. Now they do a good job with disguise and coverages and changing things. Now, Christian Gonzalez, they don't have depth at corner. If he's out with concussion and then you also have the Nico Collins thing, I think it would hurt the

Pat's Moore if Gonzalez is out. I think there's a higher chance that Collins is out. Short week, it looked bad. But when he was out earlier this year, they developed some depth at wide receiver. But this basically just comes down to how dominant can the Texans defense be? Like, they have the defense that can carry them to a Super Bowl.

Imagine if we get Houston, Seattle, Super Bowl, what that total would be. 18. So, but they have the defense that can carry them to a Super Bowl. How many plays can they make? I mean, they have two defensive touchdowns last week. Margins are thin. This total's 41.

This line's trending to three and a half. At that point, I think you have to look at Houston. I just don't have a great feel on this Pax team just because of the lack of data points against strong competition. And it just might be a struggle for this Houston offense because the Pats can. employ that same game plan as last week. And, you know, having Nico Collins will, not having Nico Collins would definitely hurt their playmaking ability. But this will just come down to how good,

I can't wait to watch another great chessments is Drake May, you know, number one in EPA per dropback versus this Houston past defense, which is historically good, number one EPA per dropback allowed. How much pressure? Because the pressure could just be overwhelming on that end as well. You saw the Chargers. The Chargers are not an elite defense in terms of getting pressure. And they were in the backfield all day. I think they had five or six stacks. O'Way looked like an all pro.

And the rookie tackle Will Campbell looked rough. Well, Kalil was shoving him back a lot, you know. This is another step up in class, the Texans pass rush. So how May handles that will be interesting. to see. But yeah, if you want to take the points here with, you know, that defense in what should be a lower scoring affair, I won't talk you off it. I just don't have a strong feel. My logic on the bear is simple. They can be down 20 in the second half and you look up an hour later in the games in overtime. So I'm just taking them in the points. I mean, it just feels like the football gods are just hanging out in their locker room this year. I mean, they scored 25 points in the fourth quarter. They're down 21 to 3 at half. And then they come back and win the game outright. I mean, it's just that stadium is just a lover of atmospheres looks incredible on television. I mean, that place is rocking.

It just feels a little more potent than like what we saw with the commanders. I think they're a little bit better, but defensively, same type thing. They're just not very good. They can't cover a soul, which you would think in theory is not good against Pugua. It's probably the best receiver in the league so far this year, and Devante's back. The tight ends can all catch. I mean, their running backs are good. But Stafford, man, just has these weird stretches.

It's going to be cold. I'm just taking the bears in the points. Don't feel great about it. But how can you go against them right now with the way that everything keeps shaking out every single game? It's insane. What I played here, this total came down a bit. It's hard for me to see either one of these defense is getting stops.

I played some Rams over 26 and a half. points. So over 26 and a half, their team total. This is a team versus if you remove the not, if you remove the top five defenses from their schedule, so Seattle, Houston, and Philly, I mean, and they scored 26 versus Philly and missed two field goals. They averaged 32 and a half points per game. They got the 27 and 11 of the 14. And a couple of them, they just didn't have to. And one of them against Seattle, they put up 38. And they led the league in scoring. anyway, right?

Yeah. I mean, so I think they get the 27 plus. I mean, this is a Bears defense that's, you know, 28th BDOA, 26 success rate, 30th in EPA if you remove turnovers. Their turnover luck is extreme. It's not going to last forever. They're 23rd in points allowed despite leading the league in turnover margin. Additionally, you know, you have, there is some concern with the Stafford finger and

in the cold, the Adams handstring in the cold. you're going to see a lot of stats of Stafford has struggled historically in the cold, like his win-lossarger. But a lot of those games were when he was with a bad Lions team. Remember last year he almost beat the Super Bowl champion in Philly in the snow, and he looked great. It's hard for me to see. He had the Ravens game a couple years ago, remember when he was unreal.

I mean, it's like one of the best games I've ever seen. Definitely the last like five years it's as good of a game as you're going to see. I know he didn't he end it on a pick, but he was fantastic in that game. Yeah, they should have won that game. So I think he'll be fine. This bear's defense, they don't get pressure. They're now missing T.J. Edwards as well, linebacker. Their depth of linebackers, really shaky.

They really just can't get any stops. Their run-dee is really, really bad. One of my favorite props, I like some quorum props, but quorum over 11.5, longest rush. He's, I mean, he's had, I think, 23 rushes of 10-plus yards. One carry of at least 12 yards and 10 of the 17 games that he's played if you're a movie open or only had one carry. And that's despite not getting an increased workload until like week seven.

But Kevin Dotson, I think, is going to be back. That's huge. He's one of the best run blocking offensive linemen in the NFL. They missed him down the stretch. That'll help their run game. And the Bears give up tons of run explosives, one of the worst defenses in the league at giving up big runs. So, yeah, I think that they'll, I like that quorum.

I think the Bears allowed a run a 12 plus. 15 of the 18 games to non-quarterbacks. Multiple backs in the same game got a run of 12 plus yards and seven of their 18 games. And like the teams that didn't were like the Browns, even though Shador Sanders said a 20-yard run, they just, I mean, Gino Smith had a 20-yard run against them. So I think Corm can have a big day here. I like his longest rush over 11 and a half.

I like the Rams to score. But you're right. could the bears match them? Is there some bears magic? And you have these two offensive gurus going up against vulnerable defenses. I think there's going to be a ton of explosive plays, which is good for an over. So I think this total has come down a bit too much. Now, I get it's going to be like freezing cold.

Both teams could rely on the run a bit more. But not enough people are talking about the Rams defense has dropped off significantly. Over the first 12 weeks of the year, they were number. one in EPA per play. But I kept saying, like, I think this defense is a bit overrated because I don't, we were saying this. We don't really believe in their secondary, which is the weak point. They were number one in EPA per play, but you got to remember, they played the Bucks.

And the Bucks offense was bad from week seven. Baker got hurt, right? And that game was just a joke. They played the Ravens when it was Cooper Rush. They played Stroud when, like, two of his offensive, in week one, when two of his offensive linemen got ruled out right before the game, and they had to shuffle everyone around. They played Cam Ward in his second start, Spencer Rattler.

So, like, the first, you know, half of the season, they benefited from a lot of opposing quarterback and offensive line situations. And then over the final seven games, over their last seven games, including last week in the wild card, they're 20th in EPA per play. And they faced the Panthers twice and the Cardinals twice.

So it's not like they were facing nothing but these elite offensive teams, they're giving up a ton of explosive plays. The secondary is vulnerable. The Bears can hit those. So, yeah, I think the Rams can do whatever they want here. Like, they can run the ball. They could go heavy personnel.

The Bears struggle in that aspect as well. But Caleb Williams keeps improving. This Ben Johnson offense, I think he's going to be aggressive as well in, like, fourth downs. I think that they can hit explosives, keep the pressure on Los Angeles. So, yeah, don't, don't, don't, doubt the bears. Every one of them.

I always tweet, every bear's game is the same. But I did play some Rams, team total, uh, over some, and then some quorum props. Uh, should be a go and no again between two awesome

offensive minds. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news? Huge news.

We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there.

But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.

I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast. People could call in and say, hey Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite.

Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and Headwriters. or street or Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,

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And for more, follow Timbo Slic Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Well, I won't talk to you until after the national championship game. It feels like there are like two plays. Indiana blows out basically everybody, except Ohio State. So it's like just take them and the points eight and a half and they win by 15, 20 points.

Or it's like, take Miami Money Line. Like, because if the game's close, like Miami would have a chance to win, right? but it's like do I trust Mario's team with a bunch of penalties? I guess the play is just take Indiana in this spot, though it's like, is it just going to turn out to be they played in the playoffs and blew everyone out after playing in that close game against Ohio State? Yeah, this is a tough game.

I mean, I make it, I make the spread out. I'm just, I've been aggressively upgrading Indiana. I make the spread 10 on a neutral, but I'm struggling to determine what do I make the home field advantage here. So like I don't think it's a full home field advantage. So I don't know. I'm using like a point and a half. So like I make it like eight and a half, which is where it is.

But I don't know how like what the home field should be here. Like they are playing at home. But I imagine like this is Indiana's all in year. They have the largest alumni base of any school in the country. So this crowd is going to be, I don't know, split. So Miami's technically the road team, which is funny. So I don't really know with Make Home Field. But this just could be a scenario.

Every once in a while in college football, you'll have a team where the market never catches up to. 2019 LSU. Every week, you were talking about the Sharps. So you would have Sharps even bet against LSU and the championship against college. Clemson, there was a lot of short money against LSU again. And all this team would do was cover, cover, cover.

I lost a lot of money betting against the year. I don't even remember. They blew Clemson out in that game. Blew them out. Yeah, they were blowing, they blew everybody out. Even though their defense was bad, and that's what a lot of people were seeing. But their offense was just so good. It didn't matter.

Turns out they had Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, Joe Burrow. It's like a pretty good combo. Pretty decent. So, but yeah, the market just could never catch up to how good they were. and that just might be the case for Indiana. That's my fear for, I don't think Miami's going to be able to, like they might be to run the ball a little bit. I played the under here.

I played on some under 48 and a half, under 48. Both these things are very slow. I do have a lot of respect for the Miami defense. I do think that they'll be able to get some pressure that that right side of the Indiana offensive line is a bit vulnerable. The Miami defense is real. And then the Indiana defense, they're so buttoned up. It's very hard to consistently run.

against them. Carson Beck has not been great in the playoffs before. He doesn't to do much. It's really on the defense. But I think this will be more of a rock fight type of game, lower scoring. There's no reason, there's no need for Indiana to run it up at the end, like to show off, which sometimes comes into play in their games. But I think, but I think this will be more of a defensive game, field position game. The pace will be very slow. Miami's going to play how Miami does. They're going to want to just run, run, control the clock, play field position, rely on that defense. But I think Indiana will get back into just too many known passing downs and then their pressure packages. Miami is a really good offensive line. That's a great

battle watch. But their pressure and blitz packages are incredible. And Beck is not good under pressure. So I think it's going to be a struggle for the Miami offense. So I did play the under. I think on I'm spot on with the number. I couldn't talk anyone out. I've heard good cases for Miami and good cases for Indiana. It just comes down to how historically dominant this Indiana team is. But my biggest fear is what you brought up. Indiana is so buttoned up that they're just execution monsters.

Yeah. And I mean, on third down, their third down offense is historically good. 55%. That's a range you rarely see, like, I don't know, five or six teams over the past 10 years. their giveaway, they never turn the ball over. They never get penalized. And this is a Miami team that's undisciplined, right, outside the top 100 penalties. Beckett Times can put the ball in harm's way.

So that... Well, their whole thing is like violent or crazy, we're tough. We're Ex-Netti's like, we're like the Navy SEALs. We're dialed. We execute. We don't fuck around. He doesn't use violence. Like Mario uses violence every time he talks.

Signetti's much more like execution, like Nick, right? And then the violence is just part of that the way they play. But the coaches talk dramatically different. Mario looks like he wants to get in a fist fight, where Signetti looks like he wants to get into a chess match. Yep. So, yeah, it's very well put. So that might end up being the difference.

But in fairness, Mario does have a violent team too. So it's like they can physically hang. Like they are not going to be shoved. around. They're like Ohio State, right? Where physically they're not going to be intimidated by and get shoved around by Indiana like Bam and Oregon did. Yeah, I think this game's going to play out more like Ohio. It's going to play out similar to Ohio State, Indiana. Then Miami would have a chance if they don't have like 10 penalties, right? Yes. Or Beck doesn't turn it over. Like they have to play clean

to win this game, which you can't have, you know, 108 penalty yards and you can't turn the ball over. So I think they're going to be cautious as long as like this game. game is close, play field position. I think both defenses will give each opposing offense some issues. Now, Indiana seems, they seemingly never drop a contested catch. I mean, Surrott is incredible. This Becker kid has really come on as a deep threat, which has added another layer to their offense.

But, yeah, I played some under, I played some Mendoza under rushing yards, like 18 and a half. the he'll try to scramble some but i mean the miami defense has allowed they played 14 games against fps opponents opposing quarterbacks have ran it 127 times for 14 yards so that obviously includes sacks but they've given up 14 total rushing hours and they played you know watson and drones at vatak they played byron brown who had a thousand yards rushing uh for USF. They played the Syracuse guys who could run. They played Castellanos at Florida State.

They played Chambles. I mean, Chambles had seven yards rushing. They played a ton of Marcel Reed. So they played a ton of mobile quarterbacks. They gave up 14 yards. That includes a ton of sacks. Now, Mendoza had, what he averaged, like, you average like 18 and a half per game,

which is where this line is set? but he was only sacked like 1.4 times per game. I think that could go up to like three or four and you could get some major negative sack yardage. I mean, he went up against Wisconsin. He had six rushes for negative 24 yards. He was sacked five times. Against Ohio State, he was sacked three times.

Ended with negative three rushing yards. So, yeah, I played some under rushing yards there. Surratt, anytime touchdown, if you're looking for like a part of any time probably but that's around even money he's got scores every every week i think he scored like 10 weeks in a row uh hit that back shoulder it's like a cheat code but yeah i'm struggling what to do with home field so but i think i'm close to the line um i won't bet miami they're like i wouldn't even bet miami if it's 10 i would need more than 10 because i've just seen i've seen indiana and they just feel to me like a team that you don't want to get in front of so

even if Miami went, I won't have any regret if Miami covers or wins that that didn't fade Indiana. So, yeah, if you made me better, I bet Indiana. But I do like the under. I think I'm going to take Indiana. Okay, Stucky, I got my wife screaming. I mean, I got to help get ready for this endeavor we're about to take off on. So I'll be joining you soon into the fatherhood category and enjoy the rest of the week and enjoy the games. And I will talk to you soon.

Yeah, good luck. Uh, which you all good health and enjoy, uh, the NFL playoffs from the hospital speed. It feels like like a camp. Yeah. Uh, so enjoy it. But I hope everything goes well.

And, uh, talk to you next week, brother. I appreciate it. See it. The volume. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin.

And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed. to do podcasts.

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