The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 & Out - NFL & CFB Best Bets: Ravens-Chiefs, Packers-Cowboys, Eagles-Bucs, Alabama-Georgia

Episode Date: September 27, 2025

John is joined by betting guru, Stuckey from The Action Network to break down the upcoming weekend in both college football and the NFL. They dive into the biggest matchups, key storylines, ...and deliver their expert insight on where the value is for bettors. From Saturday’s slate of massive college games to Sunday’s NFL action, they’ve got you covered with sharp analysis and some of the best bets to make this weekend. Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest.  All lines provided by hardrock.bet Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas.
Starting point is 00:00:12 We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick.
Starting point is 00:00:26 Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you. you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the ice.
Starting point is 00:01:00 Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Turn someday into right now with Body by Jake Radio, nonstop workout music and expert tips 24-7. Hey, head over to iHeart.com. Search Body by Jake Radio and stream it for free right now. Awesome health and wellness tips 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Remember, stick to the fight. When your hardest hit, it's when things seem worse that you must not quit. Don't quit. Body by Jake Radio, where hope meets momentum. Search Body by Jake Radio and Dream it for free. Have a great day.
Starting point is 00:01:31 I heart radio. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life? That is not the look of an innocent man. Is everyone lying to me about who they are? I felt such desperation. I felt it was what I had to do. Listen to deep cover the family man on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts,
Starting point is 00:02:02 wherever you get your podcasts. The volume. What is going on, everybody. How are we doing? Hopefully everyone's doing great. Obviously, we had no reaction to Seattle beating Arizona. I don't know. I'm recording this on Wednesday. I just recorded it with Stucky. So we basically went over a huge slate of games on Saturday.
Starting point is 00:02:40 I mean, Bama, Georgia, Penn State, Oregon. TCU ASU. We talked a bunch of gambling for the college games and obviously a pretty good slate on Sunday. We have our first international game. So football starts bright and early. So buckle up. I'm probably at the Ryder Cup, if you're listening to this, maybe having a few. I saw the beer prices for the Ryder Cup's like $20 Mikhailov Ultras.
Starting point is 00:03:05 I'm like, what kind of scam is this? These prices in New York are outrageous. But yeah, so it'll just be me and Stucky today. That'll be the game plan. and you guys know the drill. Subscribe. If you listen on Collins' feed, make sure you subscribe to our Spotify, Apple, YouTube page. All of our content is up there as well. But before we dive into Stucky, you know I've got to tell you about my friends,
Starting point is 00:03:27 my partners and the official ticketing app of this podcast game time, best in the business, been using them forever, literally using them at the Rider Cup. So if you want to go to an event, a concert, a football game, a college game, a pro game, you name it. Baseball playoffs is here. So the Yankees are partying. The Seattle Mariners are partying. You live in one of these places.
Starting point is 00:03:46 You want to go to a playoff game. I will say this. I don't even think I've watched nine innings of baseball this year. But in my heyday, when I was doing local radio, I've been to a lot. I've been to the World Series. I've been to the NLCS. I've been to A.L. Wildcard games. It's an elite atmosphere.
Starting point is 00:04:03 So anyone listening to this knows if your squad has made the playoffs before. If you've been to playoff baseball games, they're fantastic. I can't recommend it enough. So take the guesswork out of buying tickets with game time. the GameTime app. Create an account and use the code John for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply again. Create an account and redeem the code.
Starting point is 00:04:20 John for $20 off down on the game time app today. Last minute, ticket's lowest price guaranteed. Okay, going a little earlier this week. Stucky, my main man, we're having a rough week. His Ravens got curbstomp by the Lions in front of the country. The 49ers, arguably, their best player, tore his ACL for, I consider it the third time. and they call it a partial tear in high school,
Starting point is 00:04:44 but it's just, I got Bosa falling apart at the seams. Stucky, just got to keep our head high and keep on swinging. 49ers and injuries, it's insane. But, yeah, Ravens look rough. Like I mentioned this last week. They need to get healthy. I mean, like, Mada Bucke, they need him. And Van Nuoy, they need him.
Starting point is 00:05:04 They're not able to get any pressure right now. Before even this game, they allowed 5.8 yards per rush. Before this game, when Madabuque was off the field, they were allowing 5.8 yards per rush. with him 3.8. The rookies, the depth pieces on the defensive line are not playing well. But they're playing like three rookies, like Starks, Mike Green, the defensive end, Buchanan, the linebacker.
Starting point is 00:05:25 Like, they're just not playing really well. And then offensively, the guards are a problem. But they need likely back. They need likely record. Like, that's how the Ravens' offense hums. And their offensive really hasn't been the problem, but like it didn't look as smooth as usually does. last week but that's how they create mismatches and with that so getting likely back so those two like just the defense isn't the same right now the offense isn't the same right now we'll see what
Starting point is 00:05:52 the injury report looks like later in the week and uh if the chiefs get worthy back because they're clearly missing him i mean uh they averaged four yards per play against the giants and uh mohomes did not look did not look great he had like four or five turnover worthy plays he threw it backwards a couple times like a couple of them could have been giants touchdowns uh was a pretty incredible play for him to get that fumble. Yes. But he was the one who caused it. Yeah. If Collinsworth going on and on about great, well, how about not, don't throw it backwards. Whereas there's a chance the other team returns for a touchdown.
Starting point is 00:06:25 But yeah, that's a huge game. I don't think I can play it either way, a two and a half without more injury, certainty. But whatever team loses that game, look, the bills are three and no of an easy schedule. the Chargers are 3-0. They have a pretty easy schedule. The Ravens already lost to the bills. You're probably not getting the one seat in the AFC. Oh, well, you're not.
Starting point is 00:06:51 No chance. I think it's impossible. And, you need injuries and chaos and win like 10, 11 in a row, which, yeah, it's, that would become a pipe dream at that point. So two desperate teams in Kansas City, that one should be good, but I don't have anything there. I think the problem would be, you know, the Chiefs have a bigger problem that, you know,
Starting point is 00:07:09 the Chargers would be so far out. front and you know harbos proving he win 13 games uh i i think the problem for the ravens would i think we feel pretty confident they'll settle the ship and win the division but all of a sudden you're the three seed hell the colts you're the four seed you start having to go on the road we saw last year you know i mean they lost the chiefs a couple years in the a vc championship game but there's nothing like having home playoff games you start going on the road in that second round i mean that's a that's a mother of a matchup against either josh allen or jim harbaw it's like You're going to be a dog in that situation.
Starting point is 00:07:42 That doesn't mean you can't win them. We've seen, you know, Kyle Shanahan and good teams go on the road and when McVey could have won a road game, the Ravens would be capable of healthy. But it's very challenging. Yeah. Yeah. The defenders missing those two guys. I mean, it was the guys they replaced them with might have been in Ravens jerseys.
Starting point is 00:08:02 They did not look like Ravens players. Yes. Yeah, they need some other guys to step up, even when they get those two back healthy. but they're obviously Uber important as two pro bowlers. And yeah, the Chief's offense still isn't the same. I mean, maybe it will be when Worthy and Rice come back. But the offensive line still isn't great. The left side of the office line still hasn't been solved.
Starting point is 00:08:23 Right tackle, Taylor, still lots of penalties. He can still be beat. So, yeah, the Chief's offense. I mean, Mahomes is throwing it down field more. Like his A-DOT is back up over nine. It was like 6.9 and 7 the last two years. But his yards per attempt, six. point three completion percentage 59 percent i mean those are career lows last year he was at 67
Starting point is 00:08:45 percent um so yeah that that offense still has issues so we'll see whoever lose this game it's going to be a lot more questions asked okay before we dive into some NFL i mean this is a pretty incredible college slate oh you know bama georgia lSU o'lmiss tc uasu to me is a little bit of a sleeper, like really good game on the docket. Penn State. Oregon is fantastic. I mean, I think, I don't know where you stood on this, but I saw a lot of people like this could be a little bit of a down transition year for Oregon. I mean, the cow quarterback transferred, I think, because he realized, like, I'm not starting over more. More's been awesome. And obviously, they recruit so well. Washington, Ohio State. I mean, Washington, I, in this day and age, you have
Starting point is 00:09:30 so much player turnover. But, I mean, they were in the National Championship a couple years ago. And Jed, you know, had Arizona as one of the better programs in the country. I mean, given what, I mean, Arizona was good. I mean, that's pretty crazy what he accomplished. So he's clearly a good coach who's worked for Harbaugh and Belichick and McVeigh. I guess let's just start with the main event. I would consider Bama, Georgia. Again, it's hard to, this isn't the NFL.
Starting point is 00:09:53 So it's like last year they beat the shit out of them. I know they came back, but they were wowed up 28-0 or whatever. I mean, their quarterback is different. He played a huge role. That game by Milro, if you just watched the first half, You'd be like, this is the best player in the country, and going to be the number one overall pick. And obviously, you know, he's not that. But I don't know.
Starting point is 00:10:13 I mean, at Georgia, between the hedges, Kailen Dubour, like, I watched a little bit of them over the last couple weeks. They've definitely settled the ship. Oh, yeah. And kind of got it back. And they clearly have, you know, everyone hammered. Their offensive line's good. They have good skill guys. And obviously, their secondaries talented.
Starting point is 00:10:30 What do you make at Georgia? I mean, you're getting three points at Bama. This game, after the Florida State game, would have felt like Bama would have. would be getting a touchdown. So it's definitely come back to Earth a little bit. Kind of a stayaway for me, just because I don't quite trust Bama after that Florida State thing, but that might just be an outlier game for it.
Starting point is 00:10:47 Yeah, it's, it's time. Both defenses, I think, are definitely a step, have taken a step back from like what we're used to with Alabama and Georgia. Like, they don't have just as many dominant game records up front. And you saw that with Georgia against Tennessee, and their secondary isn't playing that well. Like Tennessee, Georgia, Kirby has shut down Tennessee every time they've ever played. And they never cleared 17 points until this year.
Starting point is 00:11:16 And Georgia argued they got lucky to win that game. They got that fourth down. Big time. The two-point conversion. So they easily could have lost that game. But that's the only data point we have. The other games, they don't show, they didn't show anything. The offense obviously had a lot more life than they showed.
Starting point is 00:11:32 But Kirby never shows anything in those games. Owen 15 against the spread as a favorite of 38 or more in his career. So we just have that one game where their defense didn't look great. Their offense came to life. Whereas Alabama, yes, I agree. Like Todd Simpson's been playing really well the past two weeks. The defense, the efforts there. Like that game against Florida State.
Starting point is 00:11:49 Like, it was bad. What's that Georgia stat again when he's a favorite? Owen 15 against the spread as a favorite of 38 or more points. Like they just show nothing. They go super vanilla. Is that the defensive coach in them? Like, you know, because I feel like offensive coaches would keep the pedal of the medal and score 60, 70 points. He'll run like, there was a game against Kent State where Kent State was like dropping eight, just playing Rush 3, drop 8.
Starting point is 00:12:15 And he was running like this, he ran this like mesh play, which you wouldn't do against drop 8. He ran this mesh play like 11 times in a row with, uh, um, uh, who's, uh, uh, Stetson Bennett. Like they ran it like 10 times in a row. He just wanted to like work on this like, play. Can you see him in the headset to the O.C. Again. Again. So, yeah, they don't really show anything, which clearly showed. So their offense looked a lot better. Now, Ty Simpsons looked great, like clean his ball, his ball, who's looked spectacular.
Starting point is 00:12:48 He's been accurate because he looked really bad against Florida State. But it was against U.L. Monroe and then Wisconsin, you know, with their backup quarterback down, a bunch of starters and a bad Wisconsin team that just terrible lost, got blown out at home by Maryland. So do we Mike McCarthy coming in from the top rope. Yeah, seriously. But can we really trust Alabama yet? I don't know.
Starting point is 00:13:12 This is a game I think it's like, because the market's been going bouncing back and forth. This is a game if it's like you get a two and a half on Georgia, you take it. If you get a three and a half on Alabama, you take it. Georgia hasn't lost a home game in regulation since 2016, which is insane. They lost one game in overtime in 2019.
Starting point is 00:13:36 They haven't lost at home since then. Interesting enough, they haven't beat Alabama at home since 2003, but they haven't played in Athens since Kirby got there in 2016. So this will be the first meeting there. So, yeah, I will say, like, the quarterbacks that give Alabama and quarterbacks and offenses, to give Alabama and Georgia issues are the ones. like Florida State
Starting point is 00:14:04 Vanderbilt with the running quarterbacks. You saw that with Milro last year. You saw that with Alabama against Florida State against Vanderbilt last year. Pavia. Oklahoma, they ran that option offense last year and beat Alabama. So with Jackson Arnold.
Starting point is 00:14:20 But that's not really the offenses here. So the defenses might have, would look a little bit better. But I don't have a strong feel either way. But if you can find a two and a half on Georgia, take it a three and if you wanted to take the three and a half on alabama uh i wouldn't blame you but uh just mainly looking forward to watching that one learning more about both teams because it's
Starting point is 00:14:42 just like two data points neither looked great for various reasons the real data points so we'll we'll uh we'll definitely get a better feel for who those teams are after saturday between i i remember two years ago being i was shopping with my wife because we just moved into this house and we needed some uh some like furniture some like grown-up furniture some like grown-up And I was at the furniture store and they had a television. And I just sat there and watched it was at night. And it was LSU versus Old Miss two years ago at Ole Miss. And it was an incredible game.
Starting point is 00:15:13 And I can't remember the final score, but Ellis is like, 50148 or something. Yeah, it was like, she's like, we got to go. I'm like, I'm not moving. This is incredible TV. And that was Jaden Daniels, Brian Thomas, and Malik Neighbors. And the irony is a couple years later, like LSU's defense was terrible. Now their defense looks pretty good, but offensively, I think we got some question marks.
Starting point is 00:15:37 And Ole Miss, I'll be honest, I haven't watched that much of them just because, I mean, you talk about playing nobody. So it's, you know, the data points for them coming into this game. Now, based on the previous couple years, you know they have talent, you know they have good coaching. Lane was bitching the moment about like if this game was at LSU, you know, this thing would be at night. But here, they put it during the day, which, you know, a couple years ago, that was a big advantage for them playing at night. You know, defensively so far, just falling their scores, doesn't feel like Ole Miss. is exactly a juggernaut. So, you know, I want to take LSU here, but I don't know.
Starting point is 00:16:08 I mean, I don't really trust, like, if their offense stalls out and you get into a point where we know Lank can score some points makes me a little nervous. Yeah. Look, I have LSU to win the SEC. I even took some, I have some LSU to win the national title. Feeling really good about that through three weeks. But then you look back and you say, okay, a win at Clemson. means nothing.
Starting point is 00:16:33 They're horrendous. They look worse against Syracuse in a save it season spot at home. They also lost the Georgia Tech. And then you beat Florida, but you need the five picks, and you still only one by 10. And Florida, I mean, they don't look great.
Starting point is 00:16:53 No. They're good on D. Yeah, the D is really good playing hard, but the offense does not look great. The Clemson offense, does not look great. So how much of that plays into the LSU defense? I do believe the LSU defense is significantly improved. They're especially on the back end, but they have the number one transfer portal class. So they brought in some guys. They're definitely much more talented. But it is the
Starting point is 00:17:14 offense. That's the question. The offensive line, it lost four guys to the NFL, and they still don't have a run game. The past protection isn't as good. So can you trust them here? Now, the Ole Miss defense has taken an enormous step back. So like, I mean, Last year, they were one of the best defenses in the country, and they lost a ton of talent, guys who are starting in the NFL right now from that team, and they just have them replace it. The offensive line is the old Bama guy, right? Yep.
Starting point is 00:17:44 Pete Golding, div. The offense is, offensive line is really, it's not good either. So that could be a problem. So I really just don't know. My first, 55 or 55 is a key number in college. I actually would look at the under here because I do think the LSU offense has a real problems. I and that the Ole Miss offense has been electric, but the offensive line is not good. They haven't played any really good defenses. And this kid, Chambliss, D2 transfer, who has taken over
Starting point is 00:18:14 for Austin Simmons. He went to Ferris State. I mean, what a fine by a big time. Cliff, and he won the national title. And I mean, Ferris State's a powerhouse in D2. But he's been electric, but he hasn't seen a defense like this. Like the Arkansas defense is really, really. really, really bad. So, yeah, my first inclination, even though we just talked about that 51-48 game, is to look under because I just don't, I wanted the bad LLC too.
Starting point is 00:18:43 I just don't have enough confidence right at this moment based on what all the other teams that they have beat have done. So, yeah, it's under or nothing. Should be a fun game, though. And the best story line, this is, you just can't make this up is Lane Kiffin's daughter Langey, who's in college, just posted on her Instagram, like a picture of her with, I guess, her new boyfriend, Whit Weeks, who's the star linebacker for LSU.
Starting point is 00:19:14 So that's another layer to this. I'm sure Lane might have, I don't have a daughter, but I'm sure he spent a couple extra hours trying to draw up some plays to make Weeks look dumb out there. I try to spin them around a couple times. So that's just a fun side story to this. I feel like a lot of people in the SEC date people at other SEC schools like Brock Bowers. Now, granted, it was a high school sweetheart. She was at Tennessee when he's at Georgia.
Starting point is 00:19:44 Where I come from, that's impossible if you go to other schools. Like, it's a rap. Whether you're the star athlete or whether you're just Joe Schmo business student. Yet these people, it feels like just have normal relationships. You know the South better than me, the location. how do they get back and forth? I get you can drive most places, but still, it seems like a different world down there
Starting point is 00:20:05 than what I'm used to where people went to college and like you just kind of eventually break. It's impossible to date someone, you know, in a different town, let alone different schools in different states, but it happens a lot in the SEC. I think part of that is like there's, um, I guess it's like kind of cool that you can go visit another college.
Starting point is 00:20:26 And then there's maybe part of it's just like, I don't want to be bothered by any, if you're a girl, I don't be bothered by any guys at my school. I hate everyone here and then you end up dating someone else. I don't know. It happens more often than you think, though. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor Hard Rock Bet. Tomorrow is the college football Saturday you've been waiting for.
Starting point is 00:20:53 Four top 25 showdowns packed with chaos and upsets. Here's the thing. If you don't, you need to watch the action. Because you can get it all. If you sign up on the Hard Rock Sports Bet app today, place your first bet for $5. And if the bet wins, you'll win 150 in bonus bets on top of your winnings.
Starting point is 00:21:13 Don't sit on the sidelines. Get in the action. There are new promos every day. And if you're listening to this later, just open the app and check out what you've got any day of the week. Head over to Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app and make your first deposit today. Payable in bonus bets,
Starting point is 00:21:30 not a cash offer offered by the siblings, tribe in Florida, offered by Seminole Hard Rock, Digital LLC, and all other states. Must be 21 plus physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, or Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling, in Florida, call 188 ADMT, IT. In Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants to help call 1-800-9 with it. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler. Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what?
Starting point is 00:22:07 We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts.
Starting point is 00:22:19 Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And, well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down?
Starting point is 00:22:43 Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel
Starting point is 00:23:10 and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Here's something that should not be as complicated as it is. Getting a racist statue removed. And here's something that should be a whole lot easier than it is. Getting a new one put up in its place. As long as there's a politics of race in America, there's going to be a politics of remembering
Starting point is 00:23:51 the Civil War. To get to school, I had to go down Robert Lee Boulevard. Get to the grocery store. I had to go down Jefferson Davis Parkway. If you're an historian and you leave out half of what the history is, you're not doing your job. I'm Akila Hughes, and Rebel Spirit, season two, goes deep on both of those things. The fights, the politics, the people who won, and my personal campaign to add something to the Kentucky State House that's actually worth the wall space.
Starting point is 00:24:16 We are more than our bodies. We contain essence. We contain spirit. How do you represent that? They are just fueling a fire that is really catching. You'll see what I mean. Listen to Rebel Spirit Season 2 on the IHeart Radio Act, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:24:37 Keith Giamanka seemed like a mild-mannered suburban dad, but secretly he became someone else, a master of disguise who went on a crime spree. At the time, did it seem like a crazy idea? It seemed very crazy, but I felt so desperate that I felt it was the quickest, easiest way out. Did you allow yourself to think about how it could go wrong on what that might look like.
Starting point is 00:25:05 No, I didn't want to manifest that. I was trying to manifest success. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life? That is not the look of an innocent man. This is going to change my life and my family dynamic forever, because everything that had existed prior in my reality is now untrue. Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:25:40 I was just looking at, you know, Penn States played me, you, and the school of the blind. Oregon, in theory, had some people on their schedule, but it turned out RIP, Mike Gundy, and Oklahoma State. I had a buddy in the NFL that said he watched that tape a couple weeks ago, and he was like, it's one of the worst things I've ever seen. I can't believe what I'm watching. You know, I've been scouting for a long time. Oklahoma States had a lot of NFL guys. They look like a high school team.
Starting point is 00:26:17 They got blown out at home by Tulsa. Yeah. And even Oregon State, I mean, nowadays with the NILs, they should just become a, you know, playing Montana and Montana State and 1-A, which I think feels inevitable, which is sad because forever they tried and they got fucked by the conference reallignment. So it's like, it's not like Oregon, in theory they were playing some people, but it turns out they did not. So it's hard. Now, we know both these teams are good, especially Penn State coming into the season. Game of Penn State. I think there is tangible pressure on this guy to win one of these games.
Starting point is 00:26:49 Like, if we're going to take you seriously, like last year I had a pretty sizable bet on them against Notre Dame. I felt pretty good, obviously freakish, you know, pass across his body. But at the same time, like, in what world can I feel confident betting on this team in big games until they win a big game? So to me, I'm not touching them until they prove it. And then I might back them because is it fair to say, like, do you believe they have, especially in this landscape, do they have the talent to win the national championship, the coaching, the players and the whole thing? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:27:21 I mean, there's, this year is, there's no clear cut. That's my point. There's like eight to ten teams that literally. Like normally there's like, all right, it's pretty much going to be one of these three to four, sometimes one to two that are a cut above. this year, like, especially with some of these young quarterbacks, you could have some teams even rise up some more. But there's like eight to ten teams that are in that discussion this year. So yeah, they certainly could win it all. Now, so I did play Penn State here. There's more pressure on them in this game, right, than Oregon and landing in this spot.
Starting point is 00:27:52 Yeah. Especially he beat him in the championship game, what, nine months ago? Yeah. Now, I don't think Oregon is as good. They're obviously super talented, but they went from a, you know, six-year senior quarterback and countless NFL. guys. They also lost one of their best receivers before the season started. And like, Oregon has looked so much better than Penn State just on the eye test. Neither has played anybody. But from what I've heard is that Penn State has showed nothing, which is smart because now, can you just turn it on? We'll take them some time. But they've just gone super vanilla. Basically, their season is a two-game season, and they just need to pretty much win one.
Starting point is 00:28:29 And then they're in the college ball playoff. But they have Ohio State and they have Oregon. And you have three cakewalks and then a buy week and then Oregon. So there is no reason to show anything that's like the smart way to approach it. And that's a huge advantage. I mean, Oregon went across country, played Northwestern, back, played their rival, and then back again. Meanwhile, Penn State, you say what you want about James Franklin. He hasn't won these big games. A lot of it, a lot of the reason for that is because he clans up in these big moments.
Starting point is 00:29:00 And that's one of the things I'm afraid about because I did play Penn State minus three. But landing is really aggressive. And I mean, you see this with... He's got Dan Campbell to him. Dan Campbell. Like, he's going to go for it on fourth down. And James Franklin gets too conservative too often. So that does scare me a bit.
Starting point is 00:29:18 But you have... Throw out what you want about James Franklin. You have two of the best coordinators in college football who have a buy. So they have two weeks prepared. But essentially, they've had two months. All summer, they've been preparing for this. game, unleash your wrinkles. You know, they're probably going to run Al or more. That was one of the points of emphasis. So that is a big advantage to me. I mean, they're probably the best coordinator
Starting point is 00:29:45 duo in college football, Codal Nicky and Jim Knowles. Big advantage there. You know, then you have the travel, Oregon State, Oregon played last week. And I just, look, if you go based on the eye testing, you go based on just the results this year, you would be like, all right, I'm taking the points of Oregon. But before the season, this spread would have been seven and a half or more. So I'm sticking with my priorities here because I'm basically just saying like, look, Oregon has a brand new team.
Starting point is 00:30:09 So they were like pedaled to the medal and they're like figuring out what they have with more. And so they're, they're way more talented than all the teams they play. So obviously they looked great. But I still need to, like Dante Moore has never won a big game in his life. Like the quarterback experience.
Starting point is 00:30:24 Now you're going to Happy Valley at night, white out. Like that's way different. Their best receiver is a freshman, the true freshman. Their best tight ends are true freshman. Like you're asking a lot of these guys. guys going up against a really good defense. And I need to see it more hasn't been under pressure.
Starting point is 00:30:37 He hasn't had to make like tight window throws. And this is a guy that's still really struggled anytime he got in. Now it's going to look a lot better at Oregon, but at UCLA, whenever he played like a real power for opponents. So yeah, I mean, I think that Penn State probably has the more reliable quarterback at this moment, the better coordinator collection, the better running backs. Their receivers are much improved. Like, that's probably a wash. And I would take the Penn State defense over the Oregon defense right now. So I think this is just you're getting Penn State cheap in a good spot. They haven't showed anything. And I'll make Dante more prove it to me that him and, you know, these young kids on this Oregon offense who haven't really played in a big game like this
Starting point is 00:31:18 can get it done on the road. So I did play Penn State. I could look foolish, but I'm trusting more of my priors and basically just saying like, I don't really care what I saw these first three weeks against, you know, little sisters of the poor for each three, all three teams. Throw in the by week. Throw in like Penn State holding stuff back. The more experienced team at home, I did roll with Penn State minus three. Well, if Penn State wins this game, then their season again shifts to a two-game season where they can lose to Ohio State, but if then they beat them in the conference championship game, would they probably be a top four seed? What do you think? Yeah. Yeah. So it's like they would just, now, you would rather lose to Ohio State and then win the
Starting point is 00:31:57 conference championship than the inverse because it might cost you a buy, which I guess we're going to find out this year exactly how that works if a situation like this plays because you go like, is one game more important than the other? I don't know. How do you think that would play out? Yeah, it depends on like what the other, like how those other teams look. There's so many variables. But if they're both like, you know, 11 and one going into the game. Yeah, if they win, I think it wouldn't matter because like if you lose this home game, but then you get a win at Ohio State, like that kind of Watch it away. If you win this and you lose it to Ohio State, everyone's going to give you a pass.
Starting point is 00:32:30 So I think at 11-1 win the conference title, you're definitely a top seat. I mean, they have Indiana, but they get them at home. That's like the only other really tough. I'll give Signetti some credit. I mean, that was, I didn't take them that seriously based off last year, and you win a game, who knows how good Illinois is, but you win at 6-3-10. That was impressive. They dominated that game, start to finish.
Starting point is 00:32:52 I mean, Illinois did lose it. They were without their top 6 debats at one point in the game, but there was they were going to blow blow them out of the water regardless. So yeah, I did play Penn State here. Should be a good one, though. Okay, last college game, want to hit on Washington, Ohio State. This is where, like, listen, it pains me that the Pack 12 doesn't exist, but I do think it adds to the, like, the Big Ten is just better because of this.
Starting point is 00:33:19 And I would say the same thing with the SEC adding Texas and Oklahoma, when you start getting like a random Arkansas playing Oklahoma, or Texas playing, you know, Mississippi State is just more interesting. And Ohio State playing at Washington. I remember a couple years ago before they had moved conferences, I think this game got canceled because of the vid. There was some, it was Washington and Oregon, we're both playing Ohio State and Michigan.
Starting point is 00:33:44 I forget exactly what it was, but it was like, okay, these games are sweet. These were like the first couple weeks opening games, and they both got canceled. It might have been 2020, but this is a good game. I mean, I think Jed's pretty good, and I remember a buddy told me, I think we had talked about it. Last year was a transition year for them, and they were going to use their NIL once they got a year under their belt. And clearly, I just watched them against UC Davis, which obviously is not a fair fight, but they definitely are way more talented than they were last year. Now, Ohio State's a different animal, but this is not an easy, it's a long travel for them, tough place to play.
Starting point is 00:34:18 Like, I wouldn't consider it like, you know, the best environment in America, but it's not bad. I mean, it's just, this is a tough game for a while of state. Yeah, I played Washington. I mean, I played them early in the week. They're plus 10. They're getting over touchdown. I'm seven and a half points right now. So I think Washington's super live in this game to pull off an upset.
Starting point is 00:34:37 There's a couple things, like they're better in the trenches. And if people aren't familiar with Washington, and I agree, I think Washington is one of the most underrated home fields. You know, it's not the best, but it's one of the most underrated. They've won 22 straight at home, which is the longest for them since I think they're a... You removed the year when Peterson retired and they put in, what's his name? They've been really good for almost a decade now, haven't they? Yep, yeah. And yeah, they've won 22 straight at home.
Starting point is 00:35:04 If you're not familiar with Washington, they have maybe the first receiver taken in the draft next year. I mean, because Smith is not going to go for a high. He can't go to the draft next year. It's crazy. Neither can Williams. They have one of, the best running backs in the country and a guy who who can also catch out of the back. I mean, he's going to be drafted playing in the NFL.
Starting point is 00:35:33 DeMond Williams, their quarterback, is very, very good. He can run. He can throw. Like, he's a problem. They're better in the trenches. So I assume, like, Ohio State's going to try to take away Boston. But that's where, like, Williams's legs. That's where, uh, that's where, uh, that's.
Starting point is 00:35:53 That's where their backs are going to come in out of the back field. So there are some things they could do here. And then Jed Fish is probably a top five play caller, play designer in college football. They're so good in the scripted portion, which is huge when you're playing this huge game at home, if you can, like, jump out and not get in nothing suffocated early and just build that momentum and get the crowd into it.
Starting point is 00:36:12 And yeah, I still have questions about Ohio State. They're obviously one of the best handful of teams in the country. But my question's coming into the year. We're, okay, saying, what's he going to look like? when is he ready he's looked great the first the last two weeks but against texas it was not great and i mean they if texas could score in the red zone ohio state loses that game and we give all we gave all the credit to the ohio state defense but the texas offense and arch have been horrendous since like
Starting point is 00:36:40 the next two weeks arch went 11 of 24 for 140 yards against utap at home so i i don't like so i had to like just step back and say okay wait because ohio state defense had lost a lot maybe they're not as dominant as they looked. I still have questions about Matt Patricia. So, like, I'll take fish over Patricia. Now, there's a couple things to keep in mind here. Because Washington offense is really, really good. It's one of the best in the country.
Starting point is 00:37:08 I think that they can score here. But can they get stops? So that's going to, number one, it's going to, like, saying, it's his first true road start in a hostile environment. We've seen freshmen, part of my friend shipped a bed and that scenario all year long. So that's not easy. We'll see how he handles that. Washington plays a lot of cover one, a lot of men.
Starting point is 00:37:35 They're defense coordinators Ryan Walters. And they played a lot of men last year too. But they have two really, really good corners. Prysock, they're both Arizona transfers. Prysock and Ticario Davis both are going to play at the next level. So, and that's the whole, they need that for their, for their defense. They can just match up on the outside. They're actually getting pressure this year, too, without blitzing.
Starting point is 00:37:57 Davis is questionable. He heard his ribs. I think he's going to play. They need him. He didn't play last week. This is like something to keep an eye on. He didn't play last week. So they brought in his sophomore who got roasted by Washington State.
Starting point is 00:38:10 He was getting beat constantly. Then they had to bring in a true freshman. You don't want to be doing that against Cornell Tate, Jeremiah Smith. Like that's, they need Davis, they need Priceock in there. So that's something to watch. They also lost their best linebacker last week to an injury. He's not going to play. But they might get an all-conference kid from Arizona who tours ACL last October.
Starting point is 00:38:32 He has been practicing. He might come back, which would be big because Washington doesn't have like the depth of an Ohio state. So that's another thing to keep an eye on. And they might get one of their best pass rushers who hasn't played this year back. So there's some moving pieces on this defense. And you want this defense at full strength, especially Davis. that's something to keep it on. But if Davis does play, they have the guys to man up on the outside,
Starting point is 00:38:54 for saying into some tight throws, some mistakes potentially, can the run defense hold up? I don't think this Ohio State run game is anywhere close as good as last year. So that's good, but that does scare me. But yeah, I think there's a lot of intangibles here that are working in Washington's favor. So I took some purple rain plus the points. I think they're pretty live here, especially if Davis plays. But if he doesn't, it could be trouble.
Starting point is 00:39:18 Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.
Starting point is 00:39:36 We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And we were thinking I'm originally calling it.
Starting point is 00:39:56 one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast.
Starting point is 00:40:16 But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite on Humor Me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.
Starting point is 00:40:36 This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get. your podcasts. Here's something that should not be as complicated as it is, getting a racist statue removed.
Starting point is 00:41:01 And here's something that should be a whole lot easier than it is, getting a new one put up in its place. As long as there's a politics of race in America, there's going to be a politics of remembering the Civil War. To get to school, I had to go down Robert Lee Boulevard. Get to the grocery store, I had to go down Jefferson Davis Parkway. If you're an historian and you leave out half of what the history is, you're not doing your job. I'm Akila Hughes. Rebel Spirit Season 2 goes deep on both of those things. The fights, the politics, the people who won, and my personal campaign to add something to the Kentucky State House
Starting point is 00:41:34 that's actually worth the wall space. We are more than our bodies. We contain essence. We contain spirit. How do you represent that? They are just fueling a fire that is really catching. You'll see what I mean. Listen to Rebel Spirit Season 2 on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:41:54 Keith Gianmanca seemed like a mild-mannered suburban dad, but secretly he became someone else, a master of disguise who went on a crime spree. At the time, did it seem like a crazy idea? It seemed very crazy, but I felt so desperate that I felt it was the quickest, easiest way out. Did you allow yourself to think about how it could go wrong and what that might look like?
Starting point is 00:42:25 No. I didn't want to manifest that. I was trying to manifest success. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life? That is not the look of an innocent man. This is going to change my life and my family dynamic forever because everything that had existed prior in my reality is now untrue.
Starting point is 00:42:52 Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man. the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, let's transition to the NFL. I saw a number, and I'm like, oh, this is a classic. Team just blows out. They're going to Pittsburgh. Tomlin's a home dog. And then I realized, well, they're starting the international games.
Starting point is 00:43:22 So not quite the, I'm like, oh, don't love that number quite as much. The Steelers, I just, I don't know, man. I don't see it. And I think this week, you know, who knows? I mean, it's Carson Wentz in 2020. a better than J.J. McCarthy? I mean, that's, I guess, a good problem to have, given that if they didn't have a backup.
Starting point is 00:43:43 I mean, JJ 1, he's not even capable of playing. He's injured again. But, I mean, seven of eight quarters were pretty bad. I just think if this defense is flying around, Aaron to me, he's looked old for a couple years now. He just kind of slings that go route. He's always screaming at the referees for a flag. I mean, he looks old.
Starting point is 00:44:02 In the face, he's looked old for years, but like his play now, looks his age. It's, I mean, Father Time comes for us all. I mean, he's fucking older than me. I mean, I, and I'm 40 years old. So it's like, we shouldn't be that shocked. I think the Steelers aren't big trouble, just big picture.
Starting point is 00:44:18 You get five turnovers and you struggle to win the game. If you give a good team, if you gave the bills, the Ravens, the Lions, five turnovers, like, what would the score be would you, if you had to guess, 40 plus points, right? You know? So, I mean, you're going to give that many possessions. And many of them came like at the goal line, like driving for the win. Like it was insane. This feels too easy taking the Vikings here because there's no like I don't know how this line is not bigger.
Starting point is 00:44:47 I guess it's just Carson Wentz. Yeah, Carson Wentz. People are always going to. The Steelers are a public team when there's a plus next to them. It's like Aaron Ryder's versus Carson Wentz. There's going to be enough support for the Steelers. But I agree. Under three, it's Vikings are nothing.
Starting point is 00:45:01 Vikings are going to get Addison back. They should get Kelly back their center. assault came back, their left tackles. Their offensive line, Jackson will miss the rookie from Ohio State who's looked really, really good. But they should be okay on the offensive line. Their defense is pretty much close to healthy. The Steelers are not. Like, they have a bunch of defensive injuries that we're recording this on Wednesday early afternoon, so I don't know their injury report. But they're not fully healthy on defense, and their defenses look horrendous. Like, you're talking about a Steelers team that arguably should be O and 3, and then this line
Starting point is 00:45:34 definitely would be over a fuel goal. Like, they were outplayed by the Seahawks. I know there was a Fluke Special Teams play, but they were outplayed by the Jets for the most part. And then they were outplayed last weekend. So they could have been outgained in their two wins by like 280 yards or something? Yeah.
Starting point is 00:45:51 They easily could be 0 and 3. And, I mean, the Vikings have a pair of dominant wins. They should win a line of scrimmage battle on both sides now that they're healthier on the offensive line. the Steelers defensive line besides Hayward has not been great. And where this comes down to for me is you pretty much alluded to it. The Steelers can't run the ball. They've been really poor there.
Starting point is 00:46:16 Their offensive line has not been great. Their tackles in particular. And the Vikings defense, where you can get them is on the ground, but the Steelers can't really run it. And Rogers has been the worst quarterback in the league this year under pressure. And Steelers are 31st and past block win rate. So what does that mean? They can't run it. They're going to be in third and longs. Rogers is 6 of 22 when under pressure this season with three picks.
Starting point is 00:46:42 So and Vikings are top three in pressure rate. So it's going to be third and longs. And Flores bringing pressure on Rogers and he's not going to have any recourse. Was there a better quarterback in his prime against pressure against pressure than him? Nope. That tells you everything you need to know, right? Yeah, and now it's just, it's sad to watch. So, yeah, under three, I like the Vikings.
Starting point is 00:47:10 Favorites have been really good in these overseas games for what it's worth. You called it last week. You said week three is prime for an upset, right? And. Too bad, I bet the Rams plus three and a half. Probably the worst beat the Rockers. But the Browns beat the Packers. Now, you also said this Brown's defense is good.
Starting point is 00:47:29 And listen, you win a game 10-0 or 10 to 3. on the road at Cleveland. At the end of the season, if you win 13, 14 games, no one judges you for that. This isn't college football. No one gives a shit, right? It's a good win. Get out of there, get moving. They lose that game.
Starting point is 00:47:44 So now everyone's like, what's up with the Packers? The Cowboys, I probably was a little hyperbolic calling Iber Fluce the worst defensive coach. And I understand that they have bad defensive personnel. But when guys are wide open, this used to happen to Brian and Staley. When guys are wide open, that means the coaching, the players have no clue what's going on. That means they are, whether it's me or you playing defensive back, they're just completely in, this is the NFL. Diggs tripping against Rome happens, like people trip.
Starting point is 00:48:11 But when a guy is just wide open, especially in red zone spots, like your players are clueless when they break the huddle. I don't, I think I would be stunned if the Packers don't win this game by double digits. Now, I think the thing would be how good, like how potent is the Packers' offense. But I just think it's an easy one full of floor to kind of, you know, just fucking get after their ass this week. And he's already kind of a red ass defensively with CD gone. I mean, you felt it immediately when he rolls his ankle.
Starting point is 00:48:42 Like, their offense goes from pretty good to like, ooh, not quite the same. This feels, especially with the mica stuff, like 30 to 13 or something written all over. This is my favorite line on the board. And I mean, typically don't love these like, you know, minus sevens on the road. but I'd be stunned at the Packers. I'll look at the Packers differently if this game's close. Yeah, I mean, the Cowboys, also the Cowboys offense now has you lost Lamb. You also have a couple of your starting offense alignment around.
Starting point is 00:49:14 Now, so their offense still can be feisty with Dak who can probably put up some points. I don't mind the over, but I don't know. Pickens has looked good. Yeah, I don't know how they get stops. And their offense just isn't at the same level, not with a healthy offense line. And of course, not without lamb. Like, that was going to be what they had to fall back on this year. You had to hope the offensive line was good.
Starting point is 00:49:36 Dack was great. And then you brought in pickens, and then you have these two dynamic receivers. Well, now you're basically the Steelers' offense of last year and without a defense. Special teams are good. So, like, how many points can they steal with their returns, kick returns, and then Aubrey hitting 70 yards? so that's all indoors that's always a thing with the cowboys um like there's going to be a lot of drives where
Starting point is 00:50:05 they just need like 10 yards to get a fuel goal but how do you think they could trade obry for third rounder it's possible the 49ers they they trade they trade a third round for they should uh so the the 49ers also can't figure out the kickoff the new kickover they have the worst teams are the worst uh the best starting field position against them you know who has figured it out the rams the rams and the panthers they they kicked these knuckle balls these like knuckleball line drives and these teams can't uh the eagles like started at like the 12 yard line like 10 all game
Starting point is 00:50:42 long it was insane but the panthers and rams the average starting field position for their opponents is like the 20 yard line wow um and then like the 49ers is like the 34 like this is a huge difference. I hate it when like, was it Bates on Monday night where he tried to like, he's trying to angle these and it goes out of bounds. You just give it to him on the 40. I'm like, give it to give it to them on the 40. If you gave that to Bryce Young on the 40, let alone Lamar Jackson, that is a devastating play to kick it out of bounds nowadays. I would never angle it toward the front pylons ever. The penalty is too great. I mean, it's basically, I would imagine the expected points value, it'd be like minimum like two and a half, three points.
Starting point is 00:51:22 Start the 40? The Yeah, teams have to start I'm curious to see how many Catch on how many are going to start practicing These line drive knucklers I don't know if every kid
Starting point is 00:51:34 I don't know the ins and outs of the heart of kicking I don't know how easy it is to learn To do that but that's been really effective so far This rule is work Because the kickoff is more interesting For sure Yeah, I mean the kickoff percentage
Starting point is 00:51:47 The amount of returns is through the roof It's insane It's like 80% of the them are being returned. But the field position hasn't gone up too much, but there's more variance. And part of that, it's like some of these teams are doing it really well. And then there's bigger returns. There's a lot of times teams are starting at the 40.
Starting point is 00:52:04 So it definitely made it more interesting. But yeah, Packers should score at will here. Like their offensive line is banged up. So I'm curious to see if they get some of those guys back, which really cost them last week. They couldn't block Cleveland. Couldn't block them. there was no block. They had nothing.
Starting point is 00:52:23 Like they didn't have any time. You see the clip? Run, Jordan, run. Yes, that was amazing. Like, they couldn't block them. Now, if you're playing the Cowboys and you have office line managers, it's not really that big of a deal.
Starting point is 00:52:34 They don't have an elite pass rush. And then you mentioned Parson. So, yeah, I couldn't bet the Cowboys here. The Packers are nothing. I actually don't mind the over either. So, Cowboys can be throwing the fast up-tempo and the Packers should score at will.
Starting point is 00:52:48 Cowboys should put up a couple touchdowns here. at the very minimum. So, yeah, and then I'm curious to see if the Browns against the lines, like the Ravens weren't able to get pressure. The Browns can get pressure. And that lines into your offensive line is an issue if you have guys. And Cleveland has guys. And golf, if you can get him under pressure, that's how you fluster.
Starting point is 00:53:14 It's going to be indoors. Can they hold him down enough to where Flacco and that offense can do enough. I don't know. But it'll be fun to watch for sure. But yeah, I agree with you on your Packers take. I, what else did I play? I did play the Falcons. Lines come down a bit, but I still like them. The commanders are, Pennix had a nightmare game. I still believe in him. He just, it was an awful game. Quarterbacks have these when they're young. He hasn't even started a full season yet. The commanders are beat up. Their secondaries beat up. Lost a couple starters. I mean, they're signing like Darnel Savage from the Jags who just got cut. He might start.
Starting point is 00:53:50 this week. McClaren, I don't think, is going to play. We still don't know on Jane Daniels. If he does play, I don't think he's going to be mobile. So, yeah, this is a, I think this is a pretty good spot. This is like the trifecta of spots for the Falcons. They lost last week, they lost 30-0. But, I mean, they outgained the Panthers by 100, 100 yards.
Starting point is 00:54:11 It was kind of misleading. It just kind of was one of those games where everything went against them. Pennix was so inaccurate. it. They missed a couple of field goals. There was two defensive touches. It was a mess. But just to these spots,
Starting point is 00:54:29 an underdog off of a shutout loss, 46, 29, and 3 against the spread over the past 25 years, 61%. Dogs off of a 30 plus point loss, 1 15, 76, and 8 against the spread,
Starting point is 00:54:47 60% against the spread. That applies to the Bengals, Saints, and Falcons this week. What is the theme right there? I just told you you want to bet the Falcons against the commanders, the Saints against the Bills, the Bengals against the Broncos. Do you want to bet any of those teams? No. No.
Starting point is 00:55:02 That's one of the reasons why these things. Usually you're going to get, these are professionals. You're going to get their best death for the next week. But a lot of times the line is going to be a bit inflated. Like this, this Bill's Saints line would have been, 14 before last week. And the thing is, the Saints didn't even play that bad on a down-to-down basis. They gave up like 28 points on special teams.
Starting point is 00:55:26 It was insane. Like, they've got a punt block for a touchdown. They got an 80-R punt return. It was a disaster on special team. 15 plus point spread in not even in October. It's pretty large. Yeah, if I get 17 here, I'm definitely on it. I still might bet 16 and a half.
Starting point is 00:55:43 Like, here's the thing. the the saints the bills are just going to run it here and they're probably not going to you don't run all in the game like this no so like you're they're going to get a lead and by the way they were just favored by 11 and a half against the disaster of the dolphins and they they were the dolphins were the dolphins were in that game until the very end and the bills didn't cover um but the saints are like 16th in success rate in non-garbage time 13th passing success rate like rattler's been okay they have good offensive pieces yeah and they're gonna and it's a The Saints have a top 10 run defense so far.
Starting point is 00:56:17 So, like, their run-dees been pretty good. So what does that mean is, like, if the bills get up big, they're just going to sit on this. And the Saints' run-dees been good. Like, they can get some stops when the bills don't care. And then they can get in the back door. They also could just hang around here. So I think they're going to get a couple offensive linemen back.
Starting point is 00:56:35 Now, situationally, like, it's good off the 30-point loss, but they're coming across the country. Bills have extra rest. It's their second straight road game. That's not ideal. And we'll see if Oliver and Milano. play for Buffalo. But that that's just too high. That's another
Starting point is 00:56:48 one. Like the Bengals, Broncos. Bengals, you wouldn't be getting over seven here if they didn't lose by 40. But a lot of that, they had five turnovers. That came so gross. That came so gross. Like Isaiah Rogers had like the greatest game in NFL history from the cornerback. And everything just went downhill. And then you're playing
Starting point is 00:57:08 against Flores. It was bringing the house. And so you know, this is still Bo Nicks laying over touchdown. And I did play the Bengals plus seven and a half. But historically playing those teams off 30 plus point losses when you think about it, who wants about those teams has, and you're getting them now over key numbers has generally been a recipe for success. Hey, it's us to Jonas Brothers. And guess what?
Starting point is 00:57:37 We have some big news. What's the news, new? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts.
Starting point is 00:57:51 starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band.
Starting point is 00:58:08 Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey Jonas.
Starting point is 00:58:19 And then I wrote down on my little notes. Notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.
Starting point is 00:58:46 This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Here's something that should not be as complicated as it is.
Starting point is 00:59:09 Getting a racist statue removed. And here's something that should be a whole lot easier than it is. Getting a new one put up in its place. As long as there's a politics of race in America, there's going to be a politics of remembering the Civil War. To get to school, I had to go down Robert Ely Boulevard. Get to the grocery store, I had to go down Jefferson Davis Parkway. If you're an historian and you leave out half of what the history is, you're not doing your job.
Starting point is 00:59:33 I'm Akila Hughes. In Rebel Spirit, Season 2 goes deep on both of those things. The fights, the politics, the people who won, and my personal campaign to add something to the Kentucky State House that's actually worth the wall space. We are more than our bodies. We contain essence. Spirit. How do you represent that? They are just fueling a fire that is really catching.
Starting point is 00:59:56 You'll see what I mean. Listen to Rebel Spirit Season 2 on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Keith Giamonka seemed like a mild-mannered suburban dad, but secretly, he became someone else, a master of disguise who went on a crime spree. At the time, did it seem like a crazy idea? It seemed very crazy, but I felt so desperate that I felt it was the quickest, easiest way out. Did you allow yourself to think about how it could go wrong and what that might look like? No, I didn't want to manifest that. I was trying to manifest success. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life?
Starting point is 01:00:48 that is not the look of an innocent man. This is going to change my life and my family dynamic forever because everything that had existed prior in my reality is now untrue. Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Two more interesting games. I saw Siriani say, obviously the bucks have kind of had their number. They're leaving early, which I don't know, the exact fly.
Starting point is 01:01:29 I've actually made it before, but it's not that far. You wouldn't typically go two days, you know, Friday if you're playing the Bucks from Philly. So it's, I don't want to say it's in their head, but it's something they, I'm sure, they've been talking about for a while. You know, the Bucks, you got Mike Evans is out, right? But Godwin and Worf's could return, right? I think they, you know, I know the GM a little bit. I think Worf's, they've been really slow playing, and they feel pretty good about them.
Starting point is 01:01:56 They just didn't want to rush him back. Smart move. I mean, it's too important. But I don't know. I mean, the Bucks have pulled some games, obviously, out of there. You know what? I think first time in NFL history, three straight comebacks, three straight weeks to open the season or something.
Starting point is 01:02:09 Yeah, they have three wins by six total points. Yeah, so, but it's not like the Eagles are exactly the 07 pass. Yeah. So I don't know. I mean, I just think if you get over a field goal, you got to take Tampa at home in this situation because, or is Kevin Patola just going to start throwing to, I don't know, A.J. Brown all the time.
Starting point is 01:02:30 It might be a good idea. If they open up the offense, I like the Eagles a little bit more, but I don't know. I mean, AJ Brown even said after the game, he's like, I don't know why we're so conservative. Just throw the ball, get the ball to our playmakers in space. Like, what are, he, I mean, he did it in a nice way. He was good about it. And I don't know, he 100% was correct. But he basically said, what the fuck are we been doing?
Starting point is 01:02:50 Let him throw the ball outside the numbers. Yeah. So that's the big wild card here, because you can't run on Tampa. Tampa's run defense. is elite. They're number one in the NFL so far this season. And the Eagles do miss Bechtin. Like their offensive line isn't the same in the interior, which is why Barclay hasn't been able to get going. And the offense has been predictable. So if they come out here and just try to run it, like the bucks are going to be in the game. But if they come out and throw it and regress,
Starting point is 01:03:16 so I don't know on that front. In order, and yeah, they're trying to go down there and acclimate to the weather, the humidity and humidity. So, but Tampa, you need, you need worse, I think, and probably Godwin to play. Now, Gupta's been really good, but he also doesn't get the attention, like as much attention because you have Evans on the field. So, like, now if it's just him out there,
Starting point is 01:03:43 it's definitely going to be tougher because the Eagles have a problem at their second corner spot. So, but, so like you want, like, two good receivers out there. Baker still finds a way but Worf's is huge this week because this is not the defensive line. Like they went to Jets don't have a great defensive line and they were missing one of their best pass rushers last week.
Starting point is 01:04:07 The Bucks could not block them. Now, you might say, okay, well, they put up points. I can't, there comes a point in time where if you're a ref, you just, you can't call, you can't call 30 penalties. Like, you just can't keep calling. I imagine, I don't know, I've never been a ref. They could have called a hold on every play. I think that Bucks had eight penalties in the first quarter. It was insane.
Starting point is 01:04:37 Every play was a hold. So you think Roger calls it a halftime like, hey, guys, this is a TV product? We got a. But even as a rep, like, you're in Tampa. No, I know. It's the human nature. You're like, I can't keep doing this. So, but the, so now that you're going,
Starting point is 01:04:56 Eagles defense line isn't as good as last year, but it's really good, and it's a lot better than the Jets. So if you don't have Worf's, your right tackles on IR, your right guard, mock is on IR. If you don't have Worf's, your center is still at left tackle.
Starting point is 01:05:11 It's an absolute circus. But if you get Worf's back, you get one of the best left tackles in the NFL on Baker's Blintz. You get Barton back at center, and like it's not as bad. It's still not ideal. But if you don't have worse,
Starting point is 01:05:24 and basically it's like five guys, that are new with their positions and like the guy you had a left guard is even, he's been even been out. Like, so it's a disaster. So worst coming back and Barton being able to go to center and then Godwin is huge because of Evans being out. So without knowing that,
Starting point is 01:05:40 without knowing the Eagles game plan, these two teams have owned me this year. I had the Rams last week. Disaster. I had the Falcons against the bucks, the Texans against the bucks. Luckily, I had the jets. And they almost screwed me again. But,
Starting point is 01:05:54 so I haven't had a good on these teams, although I've been really unlucky, but these two teams are the luck teams. I don't know. If Worf's back, I would take over three, but I don't have a good feel. I am curious to see. I told you this last week, the NFL is going to, they came out and they said we're going to officiate the tush push closer. It's going to cost the Eagles four points.
Starting point is 01:06:14 Well, they went off sides, the first one, and they didn't call it. The whole world saw it, and they end up calling it on the Saints. The poor old Saints got a false start in a push push. I couldn't believe they didn't call that. four points. I would even have had to pull my hair out because of that missed field goal if that didn't happen. It would have been a field goal attempt for the Eagles. Couldn't believe they didn't call that. It was like the most obvious false start. But an interesting thing here with this touch, which are number one, are they going to call a false start? It's like take four points off the board,
Starting point is 01:06:42 kill a drive. And the bucks have Vita Vaya and they're, I think they're going to activate a big guy, Desmond Watson from Florida who weighs like 400 and they, I think they they drafted him or signed him just for the to play the Eagles this year. That is sweet. Honestly, I didn't even think about when I saw the headline that they had, they had re-signed him to their practice squad. Is that what they did this week? Was he not even, yeah, gotcha.
Starting point is 01:07:09 So I assume they're going to bring him up. That is sick. He's 400 and 60 pounds. So, um. The tush push stopper? Yeah. That's, that's basically why he got drafted. or why he got signed.
Starting point is 01:07:25 I don't think he was drafted. But that's his role. So, like, this is a huge game for him. He gets a stop on the tush push. He just goes team to team, whoever's playing the Eagles. They just sign him. That would be amazing. So that'll be fun to watch in the game.
Starting point is 01:07:42 But I don't have a strong feel. You've had good stats over the years on the interim coach, that interim boost. What about the rookie quarterback coming in the first round or when a guy gets like Russell Wilson, I'm taking the Giants this week plus six. You know, the Chargers, they can go 13 and 4. You lose basically one game a month, right? Now, you would say they're going to lose this game, but they've just huge start to their season.
Starting point is 01:08:09 You beat every team in your division. I can imagine that was a huge point of emphasis all off season. We start fast this year. We have a huge lead. We get a little buffer. Like, this is a long road trip. I mean, this is the type, like you go two days early because it's a six-hour flight from Los Angeles.
Starting point is 01:08:26 Listen, I actually think the weird part about the Giants, they have been shitty now besides the 9 and 8 season for a long time. They do feel like they got some players. I mean, Brian Burns, like, God, Kavon Thibodil looks the best season. I think he's ever looked. Abdul Carter. I mean, there is no way. Do you think there's a GM in the league?
Starting point is 01:08:44 If you're like, hey, you get the opportunity to draft, Travis Hunter or Abdul Carter. What do you think the ratio would be for Abdul Carter? 32 to 0. Yeah, or 31. to one apparently. But they might change their tune now. I'm not anti-Travis Hunter, but Abdul Carter
Starting point is 01:08:58 looks like, he got a chance to be like Michael Parsons 2.0. He's a freak. Adam standing up last week. Yeah, they like their roster. They just stuck them in a linebacker and he was good. Scataboo, like that style wouldn't have worked maybe 30 years ago, but these guys are smaller now. They're smaller, faster guy.
Starting point is 01:09:13 So he's running over the safeties. Like, they don't look like safeties from when I was a kid. And you were a kid like Tim McDonald. Those guys don't exist. There's Todd Bulls. Was it safe? Todd Bowles is big. All the safeties now weigh like 200 pounds or fast cover guys. So Malik neighbor's a freak. I think eventually the Giants aren't. They're not like some two-win team.
Starting point is 01:09:33 And I like the Giants in this spot. And I still, like I'm not off the chargers. But this is your classic. I can just see the charges coming out flat a little bit. And the Giants getting a huge boost. Now, rookie quarterback, you never know of this defensively. Not the easiest matchup. Yeah, could go sideways. But with a rookie. But it's got to be better than what Wilson looked like last week. The giant should have covered that game. I had them plus six and a half, sadly. They lost their kicker before the game, which cost them like nine points because they couldn't kick field goals.
Starting point is 01:10:03 They couldn't kick extra points. They had to go for it. They didn't get fourth downs. At the end, they even would have kicked another fuel goal instead of throwing it into the tunnel four times. But Mahomes had like four or five turnernernerty plays. He didn't turn it over at all. Like he had a couple. They were really unlucky.
Starting point is 01:10:16 Their defense was dominant in that game. And their defense is better. even the back end of their defense. They added Holland. I like Nubin. They improved their secondary. You got Flot in there instead of Banks, who's been playing well. And, yeah, the, how the Giants can win this game, twofold.
Starting point is 01:10:34 And first-time quarterbacks have had success against the spread. It's not overwhelming, but generally been decent bets. You have DART who, the charters don't really know what to expect from the offense. So you have that uncertainty. working for you. Well, he's been bringing him in plays like he would run for Michael Vick or Lamar Jackson.
Starting point is 01:10:57 Yeah, so there's probably going to be like more zone read. And the other thing is Andrew Thomas should play a full, like he's massive. He didn't play in the second half. They had him on a snap count. He should be,
Starting point is 01:11:08 he only played the whole first half. Then he the second half they brought in the back and their backup so bad and the whole offense line falls apart. But he should be back and he's one of the best left tackles when healthy.
Starting point is 01:11:16 He looked healthy last week. That'll help. But they'll probably run a lot of read, option stuff. I like Dart. And the other thing is the Chargers' offensive line is an issue right now.
Starting point is 01:11:29 Like we knew that Bald is a stud. He'd moved the left tackle. But last week, they lost Bechtin, who has a concussion. So I don't think he'll play. And after they lost Bechton, and Pipkins went out too. The right tackle was really bad. But he gave up like nine pressures last week. They brought in this kid Salier, who was getting
Starting point is 01:11:48 tossed like a rag doll. and Herbert had no time whatsoever. The Giants had one of the best defensive, best pass rushes in the NFL. So Herbert could be under fire here. Maybe the Charter's go back that just leaning on the run. The Giants run D isn't great.
Starting point is 01:12:04 But Dexter Lawrence against, you know, Salier or whoever, and then whoever they want to put on the left side to rush Herbert, the Charter's offense could look a little subdued here. This is, there's like three teams. in the NFL like that the giants are the giant it's like the giants the broncos the uh browns the vikings because of scheme where like their their front can just ruin a game and they almost did against the chiefs like they they they were just so so so close to a couple game changing
Starting point is 01:12:40 turnovers that could happen this week packers probably now yeah packers so um the yeah i'll be on the as well. Okay. Any thoughts on just the all-time great Monday night football game and the Miami Dolphins against the New York Jets? Over, if anything, the dolphins, defense can't be fixed. Their secondary is bad. The Jets defense is bad. Like, you're telling me, you gave up. You lost that game last week. The Bucks couldn't block. Like, they had five backup offensive the lineman and Evans gets hurt. I mean, we saw the Steelers put up 40, like the Jets defense is broken and they had more injuries.
Starting point is 01:13:25 They lost Quinn Williams. Two, oh and three teams. Historically, when there's winless teams, it's like 64% against the spread that take the dog in those spots. It's like a ridiculous clip that they hit at. But under 45, I think this game can get a little loose and both defenses are bad, two o and three teams the Dolphins offense has woken up a bit the past two weeks
Starting point is 01:13:48 so yeah I would I would look over there but oh my God we got Browning Knicks whoever the Jets are going to have a quarterback and Tua I'm going Jets money line I don't mind it going Jets money line this is I mean
Starting point is 01:14:05 Raj Raj's got to be disappointed with the schedule maker in this situation he can't be happy but this is also why they manipulate and cooking the books with these doubleheaders that you give you two crappy games but still two games what else you're going to watch and one of them probably be close yeah okay stuckie uh thanks for coming on early with us and i appreciate your time and enjoy i mean this is this is a fantastic saturday is going to be got a chance to be pretty special yeah Saturday amazing amazing slate
Starting point is 01:14:33 uh if you have any plans get out of them and uh yeah the whole week is going to be great you even mentioned TCU, Arizona State. That's a huge one of the Big 12 for like who's going to potentially get to play Texas Tech it looks like. Josh Hoover might be the best quarterback in the country. Check him out if you haven't seen him. You like TCU plus two and a half? It's pretty hot here.
Starting point is 01:14:57 It's pretty hot in Texas too. I want to get a three. My only concern, I got to look into this. You can follow along in the Action Network app to see if I play it so it's free. Hoover on the last play of the game, I don't know why he was in the game or why they were
Starting point is 01:15:12 running a play, but he got, he like got hobbled and it didn't look good. I don't know what, I got to look into that. But, yeah, if I can get three, even at two and a half, I think Hoover legit might be QB1 in this class. He's that good. Well, keep an eye on that one. I'm excited. Okay, Stucky. Talk to you soon. Absolutely. Have a good one. The volume. Hey, guys, it's us and the Jonas brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.
Starting point is 01:15:52 We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it, but, you know. Tired and sick. Tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen.
Starting point is 01:16:09 We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert. Myel and Friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.
Starting point is 01:16:34 Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Turn someday into right now with Buddy by Jake Radio. Non-stop workout music and expert tips 24-7 Hey, head over to iHeart.com. Search Body by Jake Radio and stream it for free right now. Awesome health and wellness tips 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Remember, stick to the fight. When your heart is hit, it's when things seem worse that you must not quit.
Starting point is 01:17:01 Don't quit. Body by Jake Radio, where hope meets momentum. Search Body by Jake Radio and stream it for free. Have a great day. IHeart Radio. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life? That is not the look of an innocent man.
Starting point is 01:17:25 Is everyone lying to me about who they are? I felt such desperation. I felt it was what I had to do. Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.