The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 & Out - NFL & CFB Best Bets: Ravens-Texans, Lions-Bengals, Texas-Floria, Miami-FSU

Episode Date: October 2, 2025

John is joined by betting guru, Stuckey from The Action Network to break down the upcoming weekend in both college football and the NFL. They dive into the biggest matchups, key storylines, and deliver their expert insight on where the value is for bettors. From Saturday’s slate of massive college games to Sunday’s NFL action, they’ve got you covered with sharp analysis and some of the best bets to make this weekend. Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest.  All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you.

you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the ice. Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, Point Game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was crying. You just understood.

That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis'clock, he's like, you know, I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the, iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Hey, I'm Deanna Maria Riva, and on my new podcast, How Hard Can It Be? I call on my Gen X squad from Ohio to Hollywood as we navigate Midlife's most fantastic BS. Unfiltered conversations from night sweats to futas to scheduling sex. Wait, what sex? Is it just me or does every woman my age want to look at Pinterest instead of having sex sometimes? They say we can't polish a turn, but we're sure going to try. so let's get blunt with laughs, tears, or tears of laughter. Listen to How Hard Can It Be with Diana Maria Riva

on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The volume. What is going on, everybody? How are we doing? Fired up. Like last week, I have some travel plans and schedule this week that has kind of thrown everything off. So we recorded, I'm recording this on Wednesday. with Stucky and going over all the NFL slate from a gambling perspective,

some of the big games in college football. We typically do this on Thursday and then put it out on Friday. We're going a day early this week. So my guy Stucky from Action Network, he, yeah, we'll sling some ideas and take some thoughts on the different games this weekend off each other and kind of try to figure this slate out, which, you know, I would say it's not the greatest slate of games you'll ever see, That's why God made gambling, and that's why we're going to hammer it.

We got Arch Manning going to Gainesville playing Florida, who's really good on defense. We got Florida State Miami, a game I grew up on. Bobby Bowden against the Hurricanes was always fantastic. And that's what we will do. So, yeah, you guys know the drill, but before we dive into Stucky, I got to tell you about my friends, my partners, the official ticketing app of this podcast game time. Best in the business. You want to go to one of these games?

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We got a lot going on, Stuck. You and I were talking before we press record. I saw this clip of Fangio, who's just, you know, Fangio. He's super rich. He's now a Super Bowl champion. He's probably, I don't watch his press conference every week, but he has no filter. and he just kind of, hey guys, do we all realize what's going on with these kicking balls? And I don't think most people do because everyone's just like,

out these kickers are crazy. You and I started watching football in the 90s, a 45-yard field goal was considered long. If you hit a 50-yarder, it was like the equivalent of like, yeah, it was like a Hail Mary on offense. It was crazy. Now, and even Fangio said it, like, the kid in Dallas is going to hit a 70-yard field goal.

Like, get ready. It's coming. And everyone else, like, we prepare for 60-yard field goals. So it's like 60 is the old 50. You know, it's kind of like inflation. And he was talking about the kicking balls. But that has changed. I mean, let's face it, we got to factor that into gambling.

You know, these lines, someone hit me up on DMs. Like should a 60 plus yarder now be worth four? And I would say, yeah, in the old world maybe, but now it's not as long for these guys. So is it throwing you out of whack a little bit with these field goals? Yeah, I mean, it's, you know, Panjo probably brought that up because McLaughlin, Chase McLaughlin, had a 65-yarder at the end of the half,

outdoors in Tampa. And they had room to spare. So, yeah, that we're going to see a 71 soon enough. I mean, we saw, what was, what was the, did you watch the lane dock when he, when he threw out sea bass for, was it, 76? Yes, that was, yeah.

Cam Little hit a 70-yarder this preseason. for the Jags doesn't officially count but he hit it from 70 um yeah lane that was he was the win 76 yard it was the week he got fire the next week um and it like came up like 15 yards short that was that was outrageous so what was uh justin tucker's in detroit like 56 which is the current record um because because uh cam little's in the preseason obviously doesn't count it was preseason, but that's the longest it's ever been hit in any game, preseason or regular season. But the regular season record is 66, Tucker's, which was indoors. But, yeah, I mean, you saw Glockland outdoors, hit it from 65 with ease last week,

which is why Fangio probably brought it up. And teams are able, before they just handed you three balls, and then you had an hour to prep them. Now you can, you have unlimited time to prep your balls, you know, kind of mold them to how you want them to be. the feel and it's obviously kickers get those balls to how they you know and they get the feel for those balls and they practice with them and it's going to lead to longer fuel goals. I think the league did it. There maybe there was some rumors that some teams are kind of bending the rules a little bit with that but they want more points and like that's what they're trying to do with the kickoff rule. It really impacts the end of games. You have to be really smart as a coach to manage.

like coaches botched so many endgame scenarios, but it's even more tenuous now because if you score with 20 seconds left, like with a new kickoff rule, they could be starting at the 35 40. And then with these new K balls, like you might only need to get one first down. And then all of a sudden you're in fuel goal range. Well, 20 years ago, the DAC to Ferguson to the kicker,

making the whatever it was in the Giants game, probably wouldn't have been possible. You're starting at the 20. You don't have much time left. You would need, what, 40 yards? Before you get it's like the 35, so you would need like a long way. 45 yards. And now if you're starting at the 35 and kickers are making them from 60, you know, you only need now 20.

You need half the yards pretty much than what you used to. So, yeah, it's definitely changing the game. And we're going to continue to see longer field goals and the accurate. on his longer field goals continue to uptick. Fangio, I watch a ton of pressers every week, college and NFL, on like the fastest you could possibly watch them in the background. And I'm just listening for some nuggets here and there, injury updates, whatever.

But Fangio is one of the ones I love listening to because he's an open book. Like he'll tell you, he'll just share, like, thoughts on scheme and personnel and I love listening to his press conferences. So I wasn't shocked that he was the one that brought that up. He also is one of the rare guys that talks like it's still the 80s or 90s. He'll just be like, yeah, Jalen Carter's fat. You know, like no other coordinate. I mean, he's like, it's not totally his fault, but yeah, he needs to lose about 10.

Like he just talks like a coach would talk back in the day. And now, you know, all these coaches beat around the bush with any, you know, high profile player. He gives no shits. And if everyone did it, I mean, all these press conferences would go so viral of just people saying stuff. It's like the Sala thing. What was your take on, one, the whole fighting thing? It's like, Robert, you're saying you're going to murder this guy. Like, you're not going to touch this guy. You're not going to get on a fight on the field, even though that would have been incredible if it happened. I mean, he could. Yeah, he walked it back yesterday saying he truly was trying to give the guy a compliment.

Liam Cohen was clearly offended You know It felt like Robert was trying to diminish You know people in Ninerland thought Like Saul was bitter that he didn't get the job I don't know I mean I just like I this is this type story that I The fight part was kind of entertaining

But the whole sign stealing Liam Cohen being bitter It's like you lost the game Just go go to your locker room Yeah I mean Salo was actually like trying to give him a compliment But like I get why He was salty because like he was

because he mentioned like sign stealing but he was saying like they have a legal system where they're able to gain an edge um you know they're unless these two teams get the super bowl jacksville san francisco is not going to turn into any kind of rivalry so um it's not like these teams see each other often um so yeah it'll it'll probably die quick but it was it was a nice little fun moment at the end of that game but uh it's uh i didn't take too much from it okay let's just firing some games. We got another international game, Minnesota, who is just in shambles, health-wise. I mean, their offensive line is a major problem, but I saw this morning, we're recording this on Wednesday. Miles, did he get hurt during the game? He didn't practice

on Wednesday. He's got an ankle injury. To me, if he's fully healthy, I mean, that would be a major problem for them. I still like Cleveland. I also saw that Stefansky said, you know, it just shows I feel bad for Dylan Gabriel like everyone's rooting against him because they want to see Shador it's like guys Dylan Gabriel I'll keep beating this drum people act like he came from UC Davis

like guys he was just starting in Oregon you know this is not some and before that he was in Oklahoma like this isn't some scrub he's not my cup of tea but I think people are acting like he how's this guy even starting well Shador's not even the backup

Joe Flacco's going to be the backup but they'll go with the quarterback change against Minnesota and Brian Flores which could be a little difficult on the little guy, but that offensive line, I know Wentz put up some numbers, but T.J. and company was wrecking havoc. Like that,

that version of the Steelers that we saw was like, okay, you know, physically, that's a little bit more of what I thought we were getting when they were up whatever the score was like 24-6 or whatever early in the second half. Yeah, I mean, but the Steelers D has been, they don't have high spent,

the CSD's been pretty bad this year. That I think had more to do with Minnesota. And the Brown's defense has been dominant all year long. Against the run, against the pass. And they did it against Burrow. They did it against, even against Detroit last week. They held that offense in check. There was a bunch of turnovers.

Like the lines had an interception return to the five and scored a touchdown. And, you know, they held them to under 300 yards, under three yards, or under four yards of carry. They held that offense in check. Their defense is top notch. Yeah. So, yeah, I just texted my guy, and he says he thinks Garrett will play, which is big. But, yeah, that's, I think it's obviously not ideal that from a spot perspective, I did bet the Browns, but it's not ideal that you're making the quarterback change, going overseas, playing O'Brien Flores defense to a rookie for his first start while that team's already overseas.

So I don't know. That's worth like a half point right there. But yeah, I mean, the Vikings are, they're off its line. You're going to have no Brian O'Neill, no Donovan Jackson, no Ryan Kelly, I assume. So you're down to like Justin's School. Michael Juergens at Senators like a seventh round traffic at a Wake Forest. Blake Brandle had left guard. Like it's bad.

And Wentz under pressure is bad. I mean, he has a 30% pressure to sack ratio, 10% turnover worthy play rate. Going up against this Brown's front, which has dominated everybody. they're number one in run block win rate, number one in pass block win rate. So I think that the Browns' defensive line is going to dominate this game. So what can the Browns do? So yeah, it's not going to be easy, but it looks like Van Ginkle will be out. They also miss Blake Hashman and Rundee.

So they're like, the Vikings are 26th and Rush EPA, 20th and Rush success rate. So you can run on them. So I assume that's just what Stavance is going to do here. It's going to just lean on Judkins. He was looked good. He's done well against stacked boxes too. And then easy pass, like just easy short passes. And like Flacco's been so bad.

He's not mobile either that you can get Gabriel out like some bootlegs. He can move a little bit. And for what it's worth, Minnesota and Flores, they're going to blitz a lot. And they might even up their blitz rate as they, as Flores has done in the past against rookie quarterback. So he's had a ton of success against. But Gabriel against the blitz in college was an absolute monster. He had 63 touchdowns and seven interceptions against the blitz in his college career. That's a 9 to 1 ratio.

When he wasn't blitzed, his 92 touchdowns, 25 picks, about 3.5 to 1. So he's always been really good against the blitz with just like the quick decision-making quick passes, which is what I think this office is going to be. They're just going to lean on the run game. And I think that their defense can control this game. Like, what is Wentz going to be able to do? Not much. Like, they're going to play man on the outside.

and Wences, they're not going to have time to get open. So there's going to be lots of negative plays here. I wouldn't be surprised at like Garrett strips Wence, causes a couple turnovers. So, yeah, it's not the best spot. And there's a lot of variance because it's a rookie quarterback. But I think the Browns rely on the run, rely on their D. This total is down to 36.

There's no weather. It's so low. I mean, I could see this game, honestly. Shout to all the people in London. This is the treat we're giving you. I could see this game ending like 10-7, honestly. So I had to take the points with a total as low. With the Vikings offensive line and Wentz at quarterback against this defense, I'll take the points.

I do think the Minnesota is in a weird spot here. You know, then they get the Eagles, then they get at the Chargers, then they play the Lions. And then, you know, depending on when JJ's ready to come back, if it's in that stretch, you just you could find yourself you're back against the wall a little bit with this completely unproven quarterback with some injuries season kind of get away from you in that for you you realize yeah so it's like i know the packers are kind of struggling but uh the lions clearly are solid and and the let's face it the bears are going to be feisty yeah you can't get too far behind in that division um but i do assume garrott will play in the past he's done this a bunch he's

probably the best defensive player and throwing out him, Parsons, but he just doesn't like to practice sometimes. So he'll just say he has an injury. And then he'll like, uh, he like drives up to like the local gas station in Cleveland and just hangs out like, eat seeds with like people like just instead of practicing. So, uh, Garrett has has done that in the past. He's just like, I don't feel like practicing this week. So he'll be like my ankle hurts. I don't know. He could have an injury. But when you're when you're when you're that when you're that good, I mean, he'd even cares. He's at like the level of like, yeah, I don't even complain. Today's show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor Hard Rock Bet.

Week 5 kicks off with a California showdown. Little NFC West matchup. The 49ers head to the ramps. This was billed as a great game. The problem is the 49ers have a lot of injuries. And if you go to Hard Rock Bet Stad Hubbs, you can find some interesting stuff. Like McCaffrey, who they are going to depend on heavily, he's reached the end zone in six straight October games. Devante Adams. He's recorded 90. plus receiving yards in five straight games against the Niners. He used to dominate him when he played for the Packers. The San Francisco 49ers.

They've covered the spread in seven consecutive games as an underdog. Now listen, a million guys out. Purdy's out. Pierceau's out. Joanne Jennings out. This number has now gone over a touchdown. It seems crazy, but Kyle Shanahan historically has done well against Sean McVeigh. He's won some big games down south, especially because the 49ers will have the majority of fans

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188 ADMT, IT. In Indiana, if you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants to help call 1-800-9 with it. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler. Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news.

We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys?

I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And, well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast.

But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert

Smigel and friends on the eye heart. radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo.

Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context and ask the questions everybody wants answered. SportsClyce brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them.

Listen to SportsClyce on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slic Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. The French Open is one of the toughest tests in tennis, and I know firsthand because I competed there myself. I'm Renee Stubbs, and on the Renee Stubbs Tennis podcast, I'm breaking down everything happening at Roland Garris. Every match, every upset, and what it really takes to win on clay. Jenchian win. I mean, she went down in three to Rabakina, but I'm delighted. She's an outsider to win the French for me.

And she likes Clay. Listen, Lina Rabakina is arguably the best player in the world. right now and I actually can win on any surface because if she's serving, well, good luck. Consider this your court side seat to the French Open. Listen to the Renee Stubbs tennis podcast on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHart Women's Sports. Denver at Philly. I saw, I've seen it twice now, the montage of the passes in the second half. I mean, it was pretty ugly. Philly's in this weird spot, right? Defending chance, they just keep winning. AJ clearly is not happy, and every week that goes by, that dude's throwing a little gasoline on the fire. He has another week, and this is clearly going to be a tough week, given that, you know, Denver secondary is pretty good. I can't imagine Jaylen is all of a sudden against this team is going to throw for 300 yards.

So you're going to get, eventually he's going to crack. And just, I, if I'm prognosticating is in like a couple weeks he's going to come out and said everything Brandon Graham said last year was true. I was forced to lie and pretend it wasn't. Like, we're a couple weeks away from that. Denver, like, I don't know what to really make against Cincinnati. You talk about Minnesota's offensive line issues. That offensive line is fucking atrocious. I get Denver's got a good pass rush.

But that was, I mean, even if you put Burrow in that spot, he would have been, I mean, there were a couple of plays where you're like, is Browning going to be able to get up? I mean, he was getting destroyed. But I don't know, man. I mean, how often can you play with an offense that can't pass the ball? the pressure it's putting on the defense. I kind of like Denver in this spot plus three and a half.

I actually don't really hate them just outright in this game. Yeah, I can see the one in this game. Now it is a short week coming across country, but I did play Denver. There's still four and a half, I think, out there. If you shop around, I think it maybe a four. How does Jaylen play so well in the Super Bowl and then struggle to pass so much?

It's insane. It's an enigma. I do think the offensive coordinator, It's a huge downgrade. So you can just see it in the play creativity. But the Eagles are a lot worse than they were last year. Defensively, like they're just, they're like a mid, by all of the metrics, they're like an average defense so far this year.

Jalen Carter might not play. That's pretty big news. Lane Johnson might not play. That would be massive. I mean, Lane Johnson might be their best offensive player, which is crazy to say. But he's like, might be, you know, because you have Barclay, Brown, but Lane Johnson is that dominant. The Eagles are 105, 55, and one with Lane Johnson.

It's a 67% win percentage without them. They're 15 and 23, under 40%. They had nine plays for negative nine yards without them in the second half against the bucks last week. So, yeah, but the offensive line in general, especially if you take Johnson out, the entire interior, like they're not, I don't think they're fully healthy, but the interior is playing really poorly. Johnson is now hurt.

I mean, look at Barclay. Barclay in the second half last year, second half of games averaged six point six point seven yards per carry this year he's averaging 2.7 so like there's no there's no explosiveness the run game isn't even there the passing game isn't there that a lot of it i think is the coordinator the offensive line has dropped off and the defense lost a lot of talent so this team is getting by on smoke and mirrors i mean they beat the rams they were they were down 19 they went on a blocked field goal the bucks last week they had they had negative nine yards in the second half now it includes a negative 30 yard safety so but really they had 20 total yards of offense

like when 23 plays they don't get a block punt in that game and they're playing a buck's team that was decimated by injuries get fortunate in that game like the cowboys game could have went either way the chiefs the chiefs the Kelsey drops a touchdown and turns into an interception at the one so like this team has been so lucky and now you're going up against this broncos defense but with your offensive line issues. And like the one thing that they could do is they throw like, they either throw like a slant to Brown when they do throw to them or like just just like get out of jail free like comeback route.

But you're going to get Pat Sertain. Probably the best cover corner in the league. So like good luck doing that. They're easy. He can take that away. So yeah. I think, and I think, and the Eagles run D this year is a lot worse.

I mean, they're 30th in rush success rate. So Denver can lean on its ground game here. This should be a low. We're scoring game. There's, like the dog, it's a dog or nothing. And I agree with you. I did play Denver.

This got like 10, 3 at half. And as the Eagles are running off the field, getting booed. Yeah. That's what. And I'm with you. And this is, I mean, it's no slight. I mean, the Eagles have created two offensive coordinators to become head coaches. It's just hard to replace your offensive coordinator every year.

Yeah. This happened a couple years ago, Brian Johnson. Their offense is. a disaster. But the Eagles are like the new Chiefs. Like they're just, they won the Super Bowl. And then it looks ugly,

but they just win somehow on like weird things by the three. So, um, and then they turned on, all your metrics that you're saying, I think Eagles fans would be like, okay, well,

clearly the Chiefs are going to be pretty good. Now they beat the Chiefs and they beat two of the best teams in the NFC. So it's like, you can say whatever you want, but we fucking won the game. They didn't. Which is all Chiefs fans used to say. Uh,

Like last year, the Chiefs won 11 and 0, one possession games. And then their offense hurts and they turn it on in the playoffs. Like, they're the new Chiefs. But I played the Broncos here. Their defense, as of right now, will be the best unit on the field. So, yeah, I think in the lower scoring game, you've got to take over a field goal. Okay, let's talk about the AFC 49ers. Your entire team is injured.

Welcome to the party. And I saw the number, I think was it Monday? morning when I looked at the board the the Texans were like it was like plus one and a half it is now looking at it right now they're minus one and a half all signs point to Lamar Jackson not playing hamstring and

you know obviously that's enormous but defensively even if Lamar was playing if Houston couldn't get right against this unit given their majority of their good players are not going to play it would have been a major red flag on the Texans but if Lamar doesn't play and all the defensive guys are clearly out

this Baltimore team it's got a little year from hellfield doesn't it? Yeah, yeah, it's a mess. I mean, like, not only is it Lamar. So, like, the look-ahead line for this game is like Ravens minus 10. And then there was like

seven and a half out there earlier this week. So I made this around nine and a half, ten. And it would have been a really good Raven spot. But then with all the injuries, and I'm talking like, Ronnie Stanley's, he's bent up. If he doesn't play against you, you know, you're going up against two of the best edge rushers with Cooper Rush back there.

And your offense changes drastically. But on defense, your whole defensive line is hurt. Madabouquet, your most important one is out for the year. Roquant Smith, your best lineback. Kyle Van Nuoy, Nate Wiggins, Marlon Humphrey. I mean, you're talking like seven, six, seven, eight starters. Most of them pro bowlers that could be out. So then I have to take the ratings down a couple points.

I would project around seven. and then you got to take Lamar out, which he's worth probably about a touchdown. So I make this around a pick. Am I that confident in the number? No. Like I'm trying to measure the, I don't know exactly who's going to be out either.

But just the amount of cluster injuries. This defense right now looks like the worst defense in the league, which makes sense. If you're playing about five or six, your whole D-line and then five or six pro bowlers, tell me another team in the league that can survive that. Like everyone is coming for Zach or his head. I have no idea.

Like anyone that took the Texans with a plus sign earlier in the week, probably a good bet. I won't be betting this. I have zero clue. And yeah, it's a shame. You want to know who's living a charmed life is the ramps. They get, now maybe the gods are paying them back for that blocked field goal. They should pay me back.

I haven't gotten any rewards yet from that because I lost money on that. you know they get the 80 Mitchell dropped touchdown at the one which flipped that game then they get the 49ers who have are decimated extra rest and then they play the Ravens next week

who are decimated that's supposed to be two of their hardest games on the schedule and they might get both teams with just a bunch of backups which is massive for the season so the Rams are running well but I you know I think that

because the Ravens have been so bad, like people might think, oh, the Chiefs' offense is back. I don't know. I think that was all about the Ravens Day. Look at last week, the Lions, everyone was talking about the, oh, look at the Lions said to Baltimore. I mean, the Chiefs put up 38. Like, the Ravens' defense is not bad of shape, which is why I had to play the Bengals

this week. Because think about it, the Lions got to play the Bears. The Bears' whole secondary was out. They played the Ravens with all of their defensive injuries. And then last week against the Browns, it was like the Browns turning the ball over, and they got to play at home. The Bengals at plus 10 and a half at home, I had to play. It's ugly. Who wants to play the Bengals after what you saw last week?

But Browning has, like, functioned at least in the past as a quarterback. And this is, I think, just the very bottom of the market on the Bengals. They're going to be at home. They just had to play Flores and the Broncos defenses on the road in two of the hardest environments in the NFL. Now, how are they going to get stops? I don't know. but like 10 and a half they can probably keep up here i mean this is a lion's team that's what they rank 28th and past rush win rate so it's not going to be like everyone is in the

backfield right away both of their starting corners are going to be out here going up against jasonn's you're probably going to have like they got to kick their nickel out they got the rock yaw sin is probably going to start at the other corner spot you might have to move like branch down to nickel or put in avante maddox who's terrible so like their corners are are going to be really bad here. So, yeah, I think this is a good buy, low, sell high spot. Lions feeling good. They got the Chiefs on deck.

The Lions are blitzing at the highest rate in the league this year. And Browding actually has decent numbers against the blitz in his career, including this year. It's like the one thing that he's done well. And for what it's worth, home dogs of 10 plus over the last 20 years, 74, 56 and 1, 57%. Off a loss of two plus touchdowns, 60% against the spread. Home Dogs after scoring three or fewer points, again, Home Dog, they just scored three or three. Who wants to bet those teams? Well, 61, 36, and 2 against the spread, 63%.

So, yeah, I don't know how they're going to stop Detroit, but they can keep up here. So I think it's a good time to buy low on the Bengals. Okay, one interesting NFC game is, in theory, Tampa going to Seattle, but Bull said they have so many injuries that they had to change practice to essentially a walkthrough on Wednesday. I can't imagine that gets much better throughout the week. The Tampa, I mean, we have an injury epidemic. I mean, you and I have talked a lot about it. I've talked a lot about on the show. It kind of sucks. I mean, there was one point in time Sunday. I looked up in the morning slate, and there were multiple carts out on multiple games,

and there were other players laying on the field. It's pretty nuts. You know, it's not, it's not even just season enders like Tyreek Hill. It's guys limping off like Joe Alt with high ankle spring. It's all over the league. And it's October 1st. We got we got a long way to go. And there's just not enough players in the NFL. The product, I'm not trying to be a negative Nancy here, but geez, it's just I don't know the answer. We're never going back to like double days in training camp and pads during the regular season. But it is impacting these guys.

The calluses on their body like a fighter. Right. The preseason, too. It's a joke. It's a joke. Yeah, and we've talked about this before because of, I think the NFL also has to get rid of like some of these turfs, but like you see after the Giants game, there was X players, what are we doing? But you see this especially with offensive lines. So there's just no,

there's like the offensive line talent, compared to the defensive line talent in the NFL, the offensive lines are so far behind. A lot of it is just because how these colleges operate offenses. And there's just a lack of viable starting caliber offensive line in the NFL. So these teams lose one or two and their offensive line is just decrepit. It's a disaster. So, yeah, you're seeing that with the Bucks right now.

The Bucks have two backups in on the right side of their offensive line. No Evans. It looks like no Bucky Irving, which is massive. They have also a ton of injuries on defense. Redick, Gaines, Kansy's out for the year. Dean and Morrison, the rookie Morrison's looked really good. But Dean, they're starting corner, but they have corner cluster injuries. And it looks like the Seahawks are pretty healthy outside of Lawrence,

is who I have to check on this week. But the way, and it's a good spot for Seattle, extra rest at home. They're off the Thursday night game. Tampa coming across the country, dealing with a lot of injuries, practice disrupted. The way to beat Baker and the way to beat Baker forever and still this year, if you look at his numbers, is pressure without blitzing. If you blitz him, he's historically been pretty good against the blitz. He'll scramble, just he'll gash you up the middle, find a lane. But if you can get pressure quickly and then play coverage on the back end, he's going to make some

mistakes. And he's due for some mistakes. He's at a great year and he's had a great run in Tampa. But he has nine touchdowns, one interception. His nine turnover with the plays on the year. Like there's been a ton of drop picks. Well, that's the definition of the Seattle defense. They are top five in pressure rate, bottom two in blitz rate. They don't blitz and they're getting a ton of pressure. And then you have McDonald disguising coverages on the back end. And that's a dangerous combo. It's probably going to lead to some Baker mistakes here. Sam Donald over the last two years is destroying the blitz. He's been so good against the blitz. It's insane. If you look at his numbers and you're going to get that against bowls and this is going to be an

underman defense. So yeah, I played the Seahawks. Anything three or better, I think, is good. Baker's only interception is the one he threw against Philly in the end zone. Yep. He had like three. He's had like six or seven drops, dropped interceptions. He also has had three or four fumbles that the Tampa all recovered. So like they've been very fortunate in a lot of games. Most of their, all their wins, they could have went either way. They won by two, two, and two, I think. So, yeah, there's some turnovers coming for this Bucks offense,

and they're just not healthy right now. He's probably going to be under pressure and expect McDonald to cook up some nice disguises on the back end to get a turnover or two. So, yeah, I do like Seattle there. It's a pretty good spot matchup, and then you throw in the injuries. It's going to be a tough task for the Bucks.

Well, Cami's got the – Jane Daniels is going to play this week. Yeah. So you got the Chargers who are – a good example, kind of like the Bucks and like a lot of these teams. Your left tackle's out. Your right tackle, who's the stud, moves to left tackle. Now he's out. You just, Beckton has been out.

I mean, you just got, there's no way to replace these holes. Like, you can put a Band-Aid on this later thing because of Alt. But once he disappears, I don't want to give a shit who you are. There's just not enough tackles in the league that are functional. And I, you know, two Pro Bowl caliber tackles and then lose them both and expect to be okay. you're completely screwed. Now, luckily, their quarterback's mobile, but, like, I just short you when that situation happens because I think it gets hard to function.

And this is an offensive coach and staff. I mean, Harbaugh doesn't call the plays, but Roman, ironically, they've been passing a lot more this year, right, more than Roman ever has. But, I mean, their quarterback looks like, you know, an MVP level guy, but it's going to be hard to drop back. I don't care who you're playing. It can be the Broncos or can be the worst past rest of the league. when you have this level of talent on the missing, your guy's going to be under siege. These guys are not going to be able to block.

So I kind of like the comment, the I almost call them the commenters, the commanders here, plus two and a half. I don't know. I can't about this game just because there's so much uncertainty. Yeah, the offensive line is a mess for the charges. So I don't know what they're going to do. Also, Bradley Bozeman, their center has been the worst center in the lead.

So they signed Andre James, the Raiders. They might go to him. If Beckton is back, they might kick Salier out to left tackle. He's played there before, like a couple times when Alt was out. But now, like, you're moving all. There's like no, and their interior was already the question. So it's a mess. I mean, now the Washington, the commander's defense is not the Giants defense.

They don't have the same guys up front. But it still could be a disaster. But I don't know if they're going to try to run it more now. So I don't know, I think from a game script perspective, I don't know what the Charter's going to do. And then on the other side, so I would agree with your premise that, hey, I want to short this team.

But I also don't know if Daniels is going to be 100%. And like him having his full mobility and being able to use his legs is one of his biggest attributes. So yeah, with the offensive line questions and then just, Washington's other. injuries too like McLaurin he's out yeah

that is for me a pure stay away yeah the only other games that I played and they're gross I played the Saints when they were an underdog but I think the Saints beat the Giants it starts first road start quarterback's in their first two starts ever in the NFL by the way on the road are 13 and 34 straight up

there's no neighbors they have tape on what they want to do the Saints have been frisky like they've been in games with teams I think they get their first win here Then their run-Dies been good. The Giants' Rundee's been the worst in the league. These are two teams that want to rely on the run. So I took the Saints.

I did take the Jets against the Cowboys. Cowboys off an overtime game, like just a draining game. Jets have been really unlucky in a couple games this year. I think they're going to beat the Cowboys. And then I played the Panthers and I think a good spot against the dolphins. Those are the other. Yeah, you can tell. I've got a lot of great teams this week.

Okay. Yeah, I mean, it's not a great slate. the New England Buffalo game, in theory, is interesting Sunday night. I don't quite know what to make in New England. I mean, you curb-stomp the Panthers. Are they good? You know, you beat Miami in a weird game. The Buffalo, you nailed that last week against the Saints.

I mean, that was, what was that? What was it? 15 and a half? Is that what the game ended up? The Saints were in that. Like, that was closer than that. That game was close. I agree.

This is a game that, you know, I would imagine Buffalo's had complete ownership over this division. I don't know. I mean, A points a lot, but to me, if I'm betting this game, I'm taking Buffalo on the points. Yeah, I got to wait on injuries here. So the Bill's defense right now is a mess. And part of that is injuries. Milano and Ed Oliver, their best defensive lineman, have been hurt and have been out. And they can't stop the run.

But the Patriots can't run the ball this year. Drake May has been good, even though his protection's been bad. And his receivers aren't great from a separation standpoint. but he's actually looked pretty good. But he's like taking too many sacks and he, the bills are still getting a ton of pressure. They're one of the top pressure rate teams in the league. So there could be a lot of negative plays here to kill drives and the Patriots aren't

going to get as much pressure. So Alan is most likely here going to just abuse the middle of the field. The Patriots probably have their safeties are struggling and they probably have the worst coverage linebackers in the league by a wide margin. So like over the middle of the field, Alan can probably carve them up. But I got to wait on the injuries. Spencer Brown, their right tackle, will he go, Milano, and Oliver? So I haven't done anything with that, but it does.

It also feels like the Patriots could be down 14 and then they'll have a chance to get a back door, which May has done a bunch. But there's injuries on the bills. That's what you need to monitor because their D has been really, really bad. I mean, the Saints average like six yards per carry on like, I don't know, 35, 40 carries last week. They were going up and down the field. If they didn't throw a pick on a Philly special and, you know, drop a touchdown, like they could have won that game. And it was because the Bill's defense could not get off the field.

So, yeah, I have no strong field now waiting on some key injuries there. Okay. Let's get to the Monday night game because you go, well, three and a half feels, you know, the chiefs. I like Chiefs in this spot, my three and a half. Here's the thing. Jacksonville's good on defense. They're creating a ton of turnovers.

They scored 26 points last week. Seven of them came on a punt return. Three more came on a terrible kickoff coverage. Again, the 49ers are awful on special teams. They get a field goal. That's 10 points. E.N touchdown came on a fumble,

and he immediately scores on a long touchdown. So it's not like their offense is putting together these long drive. I don't think Trevor Lawrence is good. Brian Thomas has had issues with, I don't know, not being into it slash kind of banged up. Travis Hunter's just not done anything. So to me, I just like the Chiefs in this spot. I disagree with you.

This is the first time we're going to disagree this week. I played the Jags. I think anything above three or a cheap three is good. Like, I'm not buying into the, like, worthy helps, but they still can't run the ball. Mahomes should have a bunch more turnovers, because the offensive line isn't solid. Like there's been some drop picks.

He's dropped. He's had a couple fumbles, throwing it backwards. And they've been pretty lucky in that department. But so I'm not sold the offense is fixed because last week again, I think it was all about the Ravens Day. Like you were playing a bunch of backups. This Jaguars team is so improved from a coaching standpoint. It's on both sides of the ball.

Their defense, they're actually playing more coverages that suit their back end. Their front seven is good. Their D is good. Their D is good. Yeah, their D is one of the. the most improved in the league. And they have one of the best special teams, uh, units in the league. But yes, there, there is some, some turnover regression because they forced four, they forced at least three turnovers in all four games. They have 13 takeaways on the year.

Last year, they had nine total for the entire season. So you're going to talk about regression. They were due, but they're probably now due to, they're not going to continue to get that. So the offense, Cohen is putting him into, like their offense is so well scheme. like their running game like their offensive line is bad they don't have a ton of that talent and but they're still able to put up points they should be putting up more if they had more talent and like they weren't dropping they lead the league in drops um they have like 16 drops on the year the next most i think is the jets with nine so drops have been killing them uh and then like just Lawrence making some dumb throws but like the screen game the running game like everything is so well schooled so i'm not

all the way in on this Chief's offense being back. Now, when they get Rice back, it could be scary, but they still can't run the ball. The offensive line still has issues. I think this Jags team is still undervalued a bit. I get that you might be a little salty after they beat your 49ers. And they definitely did get lucky.

I mean, they won the turn of a battle for nothing. But I, yeah, I took the Jags as a home dog. Should be a good one. I can see people making the case for the Chiefs, for sure, though. Yeah, it's actually, if you would have said Jaguars, Monday night football. You'd be like, oh. But this is actually a pretty good Monday night football game.

Agreed. I'm pretty excited, especially coming off what we just witnessed. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast?

Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas? guys. I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it.

We were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering. that guys listen to hey jonas on the iheart radio app apple podcasts or wherever you get your

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Presented by Capital One, founding partner of IHeart Women's Sports. Let's hit on a couple college games. We'd kind of have this thing circled at the beginning of the season. when we thought Florida was going to be feisty. Obviously their coach is going to get fired and their team isn't very good. But I do think that defensively, they've obviously been awesome. Even if guys were about ready to check out and get ready to hit the transfer portal when he does eventually get fired here, either during the season or at the end of the year,

this is an easy one because it's like if you're the defensive coordinator, we get to play Arch Manning. And so if you do want to make a lot of money, a lot of people are going to be paying attention to this game. So let's go kick his ass. Like this is just, I don't know. I mean, Texas has played nobody since that first game. Arch has been horrendous.

No one can get to the bottom of if he's injured, they keep pushing back. Everyone that knows anything about throwing mechanics slash, it's like, this doesn't make any sense. Something's got to be. Like, they're going to be out for blood defensively. Now, offensively, they've blown. We know Texas is good on.

I'm not saying that Florida's winning this game, but it is, Is Arch going to be able to throw for 150? Are they going to be able to move the ball against this team if they try? Again, the try factor makes me a little nervous, but young kids, it's still early October. This is their last two raw. Throw everything you got. Maybe lose the game like 10 to 6 and then mail it in for the season.

But I do think Florida's defense will look like the defense we've been seeing flying around specifically for this game and this quarterback. So I like Florida plus six and a half. Yeah. I especially you get a seven but at six nine I think you got to take the points here I mean this total is 41 it's insane because you said that before the year like lagway versus arch and the total is 41 that's how bad these offenses have been but yeah I mean how's florida going to move the ball well first of all how's tex is going to move the ball I don't know I mean Texas couldn't move it against utap like it was like 11 of 25 for 134 yards now both teams have had a buy so like who fixed what was there's something to fix. I will say, like, Lagway didn't work with, he was hurt in the offseason. So, and he was dealing with some injuries. Maybe he's going to look healthier and he got some timing down with his receivers. There is a name to know, which could change their offense.

Because somehow, Lagway was known for deep passing. It was the best deep ball passer in college football last year. They have no passes over 20 yards this year. Not zero. They think they're the only team without any. That was supposed to be like, they were supposed to be one of the best doing that. But there's a kid who's going to make his debut. It was supposed to be their best receiver. He's a five-star freshman, Dallas Wilson. It looks like he's going to play this week. In the spring game against what we're seeing is a really good Florida defense.

He had 10 catches for 195 yards and two touchdowns. So he's an absolute stud. So it looks like he's going to play. We'll see if that can unlock some deep shots. But yeah, I think Florida will care here at home against Texas. Like, you know, you're going to get a top 10 team. Like this is off the buy. they'll have some juice.

The swamp will have some juice. And look, everyone thought they were going to quit last year under Napier. And they still came out and fought every week. So, yeah, I think you got to take the points with just all the uncertain. You can't trust this Texas offense right now laying points against what looks like an elite defense. And they're doing it without getting, like, they're not getting much pressure. And they're just fundamentally sound. they're not going to let Arch scramble,

which is like what his best attribute is right now. So yeah, I think you have to take the points there. Look out for, keep an eye on them for Dallas Wilson. One of the great rivalries in college football, I had gone to the Ryder Cup and had a few cocktails, and then we got back,

I had a few more. One thing I noticed about New York City, it's not, I would say it's not college football heavy. We went to multiple bars, baseball is everywhere. There's some boxing on. You know, it's just, it's like, I'm not going to bother these people

to try to put on Florida State, Miami. We ended up going to dinner. So I really didn't see much of this game. I didn't see any of it, really. I just saw the outcome, which clearly was a pretty big deal for the universe. So it's Florida State, you know, because you look back, I did watch like everyone, Bama, Georgia, and you, God, they beat this team. That's pretty impressive. Now, clearly Bama looks dramatically different a month later. I would imagine that they played again. I think we'd all like Alabama in that spot. Ty Simpson looks fancy. I thought he was incredible in that game relative to what I thought of him a month ago. But, you know, this is a spot for Florida State? Is Florida State good? I don't know.

We all agree. Miami's freaking loaded, especially defensively. Their defensive line. I guess you just take Miami minus four and a half. It is at Florida State. That Tomahawk chop gets going. But what do you make? Were they looking ahead against Virginia? Is Virginia a little better than we think. Virginia's offense is definitely good. Chandler Morris is playing really well. They, they hit some guys in the portal. Like, they went out and spent a ton of money. So their offense does look legit. Yeah, they might have been peeking ahead a bit, feeling themselves a little bit.

I do like that Castiano's in that, like, they can, he is mobile and they're going to run a ton and they can put those defensive ends in conflict. And so I think Florida State can move the ball here. and you know whenever these florida teams play like all these florida kids i'm always inclined to take the points uh but you know because if you look what miami has done this year like the notary name defense hasn't been as good as we thought it's been actually pretty bad uh up and up until last week um they got south florida in a dream spot like an absolute nightmare spot for south florida who was coming off two ranked wins,

which when does that ever, when does South Florida? And then they're playing their third straight ranked team, and Miami was coming off a buy. And then Miami played this broken Florida team. And, you know, Beck didn't do much. I mean, he threw for 150 yards.

They only averaged four yards per carry. So maybe we overrated this Miami offense a little bit, which is a thought that I, had. So I expect Florida State to bounce back. I think that this offense can have success against this Miami defense with the way that they use Castianus's legs. But I do think Miami is the best team in the country in the trenches on both sides of the ball. That matters a lot. And that that could get them far in the college football playoff and just this season in general. So I don't have a strong feel yet. My first, I have to break that one down some more. If you, if you,

or into college. We'll break down that game in depth and the entire slate on big bets on campus for every listening to podcast. My first inclination is to take the points, but I don't have a strong feeling yet,

and I have not put any money down on that game. Your LSU ticket to win the Natty. That's done. You think they're done? They're done. They don't have an offensive line. They're offensive line. The hope was this brand new offensive line.

They couldn't run the ball last year, was going to be able to gel, and they would have a run game. And they didn't have any run game last year. And then that could provide balance to the, but they don't have a run game and they can't protect, they can't protect their quarterback. I can't even think of his name.

Nussmeyer. Nussmeier, who people are saying now he might be hurt. There's rumors that he might be hurt now for the year. So their defense is really good, but I don't think their offense has, their offensive line has it. And the SEC is just way too difficult. They needed to get that old miss game.

So, I mean, they could still make a run, but I don't see it with the way that their offense looks. And by the way, if you have to look back, their data points now age much worse because they beat Clemson. Clemson is a disaster. So they beat that win looks much worse. Everyone's beating Clemson. I mean, Syracuse is beating Clemson at Clemson. And then they beat Florida. But, I mean, Lagoid through five picks.

They still only won by 10. And Florida has been a mess. So like those two wins that look great don't look as right now. And then I just think the offensive line has too many issues. So yeah, I don't see it happening. I'll be rooting for it. But as of right now, I can't see it with the state of state of that offensive line. Still no run game.

And now the past protection is worse because now you don't have four NFL guys, four guys that are now in the NFL protecting you. Someone sent me a clip of an Oregon like fan page put together this. like montage of people talking shit. I think I was on that. Yeah, you were. He never, Moore never played in a big game,

which was factually true. And, you know, it's crazy. Oregon, I mean, they have, you know,

Coward, who's from the Northwest, as always said, like, they are the one brand new team to college football in the internet age. Like Miami's been around forever,

right? Ohio State's been around forever. George Alabama, long history. It's like Oregon's history started is by far the newest. team because of Phil Knight and Nike. And they are just like, you could tell, like, I love that jersey scheme.

When they came out and those, I was like, damn, they look pretty sweet. That tight ends a monster. And that quarterback, like five-star guy, like you said, you never know how these guys are going to react, but he's way better than the other guy. And it's like, I wanted to like Aller, you and I pound on the table, get this new offensive coordinator. I'm sorry, I'm out. Like, you can't win.

And who knows? They can still make the playoffs or whatever. Like, there's no chance. No. I don't even think he's beating anyone good in the playoffs. So it's just now I think, you know, Miami, Ohio State, Georgia Bama, Oregon, like we're starting to get a little separation, I think. Would you throw Ole Miss in there or it's just they're not quite on that level?

No, their offensive line is bad. Their defense is still really bad. I don't think they could put together any type of deep run. You know, my, yeah, and I was dead wrong on Oregon. I had a lot of money on Penn State minus three. I gave it closed like four, four and a half. The market agreed. The market was wrong.

I was wrong. I wanted to see more and those freshmen in a huge environment, and they did it. I thought Penn State was holding, they had a buy. They were not showing anything. Well, here's what decided that game. You know, Aller wasn't great,

but Oregon beat the shit out of them on the offensive line on both sides of the ball. And Oregon had a rebuild. offense line and rebuilt the recruits that they've got on the defensive line. They're all young too. They're going to be around for another year. They dominated that game at the line of scrimmage. And more didn't make any mistakes.

And yeah, they deserved to win that game. They didn't even deserve to go to overtime. You know, Penn State got pretty lucky that I went to overtime. So, yeah, they look very good. If I had to throw another team in the mix, I would probably throw in Texas A&M. I think Elko is starting to get that defense rounded into form.

That was basically his primary job this offseason. And their offense looks really explosive. What they have two really, I mean, their receivers, Craver and Concepcion, and they have one of the best offensive lines in college football, one of the best running games. I mean, they have like a pre-headed monster in the backfield led by Blavion Moss, a mobile quarterback. Marcel Reed looks to be getting better.

You might say, oh, they only. beat Auburn 1610. They out gained them 4.15 to 170. Like, just a completely fluky game. They dominated that game. They went, you know, they won at Notre Dame already.

They're 14 and a half point favorites against Mississippi State this week. Then they're going to get Florida. They go to Arkansas. This is a team that's probably going to be 7 and 0. Then they go to LSU who might be broken. They have South Carolina. Sanford at home.

They're at Missouri. It was pretty good, but they could win that game. And then they closed the season at Texas. I'll tell you right now, I'd take Texas A&M over Texas right now, unless I'd see anything more from March. So this is a team that could,

if they go 10 and 2, they're going to the college world playoff, especially with a win, an SEC team, and they have a win at Notre Dame, one of the best non-conference wins of the season. But there's a chance they could go 11-1. But I think they have a really good shot of 10-and-2. and if Elko starts to round this defense into form

and it looked that to be the case last week against Auburn, their offense looks electric and they have the offensive line. I like their coach, the running game, the receivers. That's a team that could be one that makes a run that not many you're talking about. And I would say Oklahoma, I mean, that news on the quarterback is just, I mean, three weeks now's best case is just throwing hand and grip the ball.

I mean, that's pretty fucking devastating. Yeah, well, The problem for Oklahoma is that and then their schedule. Like I just mentioned Texas A&M schedule pretty reasonable for a SEC team. But like Oklahoma still has what? They have Texas on a neutral. They have Ole Miss. But how do they win that game with a backup quarterback?

Yeah. It's going to be tough. It's their defense. If Arch is a disaster, you just win it like 1310. Yeah. So, but they're at Tennessee. they're at Alabama, and then they close with Missouri and LSU. So their schedule is brutal, and yeah, the injury throws a wrench into that.

So we'll see when Mateer can come back, but it's going to be tough if they're not fully healthy, and they have one of the toughest remaining schedules in the country. You know how I'm happy for is Kalin DeBoer because that Florida State game, which was jarring to watch, his body of work. Like, he just, that was an outlier game of his career. he beat Kirby twice I mean their team's rolling right now and Ryan Williams isn't even good

you know I mean Ryan Williams like you get some people I've heard some Bama people like bench him let's get this guy we don't even need him and what he's doing with Ty Simpson it's like Ken DeBore's pretty freaking good and I would say Alabama's on the come right now

yeah the Boers like he's won wherever he's gone he outcoached Kirby early like the way I thought about that game is I wanted to bet Georgia live because I figured that DeBoer was going to have a really good plan. And I mean, Kirby's one. He's probably the best in-game adjuster,

and that's what happened. But Alba was able to hold on. I mean, Alba didn't score in the second half. But Simpson looks much more comfortable. DeBore's biggest problem has been, which is very shocking for coach, one of the best coaches in college football. He's had a couple games where they're like big favorites

and they'd show up and they look like they're not prepared. And they kind of like take the opponent lightly. we saw that last year against like Oklahoma, Michigan and the bowl game, Vanderbilt, Florida State earlier this year, and Alabama still, and this goes back to the same days, but still they struggle with mobile quarterbacks. And that's what they're going to see this week with Diego Pavia and this Vanderbilt offense, which is a wagon right now. I mean, their offenses, you look at like adjusted for our opponent. Them and USC have the two best offense in the country, talking passing and rushing offenses. They are, have been unbelievable. And their defense isn't that good.

They're probably not going to get that many stops. I don't hate the over in this game. It's, Vandy's 10 and a half. Yeah, 10 and a half. I won't bet against Vandy as their coaching staff is awesome too. I won't bet against Pavia as a dog. I mean, he is at, at Vandy, he's 10 and two against the spread as an underdog with seven outright wins. And most of those, I mean, he's winning games when he's like 21, 24 point underdogs,

27. Like, it's insane. but I don't know if I'm going to bet Vandy so I kind of might I like the over because Bama will be ready for this like they were embarrassed last year they've had this circled so it's not like they're going to be hung over

from the Georgia game if Bama goes up early so I think they're probably going to have like some wrinkles early I could see it being starting like the Georgia game I'll probably look to bet Vandy live and Bama doesn't have a great running game which might hurt

them late, but they might just want to keep pouring it on here. So I don't hate the over. I won't bet against Pavia as a dog, but Bama wants this. So I could see, I make it 10 and a half is my projection. So I'm right on the market. I could see, you can make a case for either side here. I think the fun way to play it and the way that I would look, 55 is a key number in college football.

Keep that in mind when you're betting totals. But I can see this being an over again. The Vandy offense are now is electric. And I can't see them slowing down Bama too many times. and Bandy will fight to the death. And I'm sure DeBore and company want to, if they can, they might put in an extra score or two for what happened last year. Who would have thought about five, ten years ago

that Vandy Bama would have been must watch at 1230 or 1230 Pacific Center Time on a random Saturday? Vandy's going to have, now Vandy hosts, like, Vandy's going to have a say in the college wall play out. I mean, maybe they could make it, but I doubt it with their schedule. But all these SEC teams that want to get there, like if Alabama was this game, they're in doubt, they're in jeopardy of missing the college world play.

They host LSU next week. They could knock out LSU. They host Missouri the week after that. They could knock, they could help knock down Missouri. They're at Texas. They could eliminate Texas if they have another loss. Then they're home against Auburn. And then they close the year at Tennessee.

Like, first of all, that schedule is ridiculous. but they're going to have a say and they're probably going to pull an upset or two off as they've done throughout Pavia's career. So, yeah, and then they host Aubia owns Hufri's going back to

Liberty, New Mexico State when he beat him as a three touchdown underdog. What if they go 10 and 2? Why couldn't they make it? Who, Andy? Yeah, they could, but they'd have to go like 10 and 2. are they going to win

like they're not going to win all these games but like LSU looks like they have issues Texas might have issues so like maybe some of those games get easier than they thought and if they win this game yeah they're in the discussion Vandy almost beat Texas last year

I remember watching that game I was like God Vandy's better I thought Texas was laying an egg now looking back actually Vandy's not terrible you know appreciate you Stucky have a good week and we will check in with you next

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