The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 & Out - NFL & NFL and CFB Best Bets: NFL's Wildcard Weekend & College Football Playoff's Semi-Finals

Episode Date: January 8, 2026

John is joined by betting guru, Stuckey from The Action Network to break down the upcoming HUGE weekend in both college football and the NFL. They dive into the biggest matchups, key storyli...nes, and deliver their expert insight on where the value is for bettors. The action starts on Thursday and they’ve got you covered with sharp analysis and some of the best bets to make this weekend. Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest.  All lines provided by Hard Rock Bet Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.
Starting point is 00:00:12 We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick.
Starting point is 00:00:26 Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you. you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.
Starting point is 00:00:45 This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel. Help an Acapella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the ice. Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam?
Starting point is 00:01:04 It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, Point Game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was funny. You just understood. That's how personal it got.
Starting point is 00:01:20 Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis' keep coming to. He's like, you know, I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the, IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:01:33 Therapy is fantastic, but once again, it does not have a monopoly on healing. That's why I create the resources and that's why I create the community because I really just want you to have more access. On the podcast, Cultivating Her Space, Dr. Dom and Terry Lomax create a space where black women can show up fully and be heard. It's tough because we're suppressing our emotions and so many of us are like high-achieving individuals. Listen to cultivating her space on the IHeart Radio app.
Starting point is 00:02:00 Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcast. The Volume. What is going on, everybody, John Middilcock, Three and Out Podcast. Hopefully everyone is doing well. We are brought to you by my friends at Zone Pouches. Love those guys. Today will be a pretty straightforward show. I will be joined by friend of the program, fellow father.
Starting point is 00:02:40 I technically am not a father yet. the child still in the belly. Stucky is, had a baby last, I think a couple weeks ago. And I wanted to bring him on because we got the college football playoff game starting tomorrow. We're going to talk about that at the end. We ended up just firing through a bunch of NFL, you know, from the Super Bowl standpoint to the game standpoint this weekend through Monday. Start off with asking about John Harbaugh, who obviously was, he's a Ravens fan. So some of get his thoughts on that. But Stucky will bang out. He's got stats galore.
Starting point is 00:03:14 We will dive into the individual games. Not an easy week to pick. I mean, unless you're hammering the Rams money line, these games can get weird. The season's been weird. I would imagine some weird stuff is going to happen this weekend. So we will get ahead of it. That will be the show today.
Starting point is 00:03:34 Yesterday we discussed, obviously, Harbaugh getting fired, John Harbaugh. I guess you knew that probably. you know from iber flus to kingsbury some of those situations i will do a reaction to saturday night or excuse me thursday night miami playing old miss which is actually i want to say in my backyard but it's about an hour drive from where i'm at uh it's a pain in the ass to get to so i'm just going to watch it on television but we'll do a live reaction on youtube after that i'll do a big mail bag on uh for fugazi friday at john middle cop is the instagram so uh fire in those ds
Starting point is 00:04:10 and we'll do a big mailbag for Friday for sure. But other than that, you guys know the drill. Subscribe. If you listen on Collins feed, if you listen on, you know, subscribe to my own feed, three and out feed, Apple, Spotify, we got you covered from an audio standpoint. We have YouTube. We'll be live Friday, Saturday, Sunday. I think Monday is going to be our first show on Netflix.
Starting point is 00:04:38 So it'll be uploaded on Netflix. Monday morning. That's the plan right now. I have another, you know, marketing business call on Friday to kind of iron out some more stuff. But as of now, that is the plan. We will keep you updated. And, again, nothing changes here.
Starting point is 00:04:56 So we will just keep doing the same old podcast that we've been doing for a long, long time and just keep swinging our pick, talking a little ball, talking life. And, yeah, see where it goes. But let's just dive right into Stucky. Okay, this is always the time of year where you start getting a little bittersweet because you start counting the games. And for me, this is one of the last, probably the last just pure weekends of football, especially with my life. Stucky, I have a, my baby has a massive head and is flipped the wrong way. So we have a scheduled C-section right now next week on Thursday.
Starting point is 00:05:34 So this Thursday through Monday stretcher boy is going to soak up. Big time. How are you doing, man? This is this is a rough time of year in a weird way because it should be great. Yeah, same thing happened to us. And then we ended up having to go even earlier, a week earlier, because their moist blood pressure, like spike shed like preeclampsia. So we had an emergency C-section.
Starting point is 00:06:01 But that was the same thing that happened. And yeah, I just count, like we have, I believe we have 15 football games left. and seven of them are this weekend. Jeez. And puts it in perspective right there. Yeah, this is the weekend you really got to cherish because you got college football semi on Thursday, college football semi on Friday.
Starting point is 00:06:23 And then wild card, wild card, wild card. So five straight days of playoff football. And then it'll really hit you on like Tuesday morning. You're like, wow, especially for you. So congrats. I wish everything, I wish you well, and I hope everything goes well. But yeah, this is the time it really starts to hit you, but I am very excited for this weekend. I am too.
Starting point is 00:06:50 And before we dive in any football, you are a Ravens fan. Obviously, John Harbaugh is one of the central figures of football, especially just because of his football family. I mean, he played in one of the most famous Super Bowls of all time. He played against his brother. I don't think we're ever seeing that one again. Unless they play each other, which you never know if he goes to the Giants or whatever. Regsorex him in a couple years. But your thoughts, because my initial thought was obviously you and I and it had been out there,
Starting point is 00:07:18 people kind of rumbling about it. But when you see it, it was a truly a wow moment, I thought. Yeah. No, I didn't know if it was going to happen, but I had a feeling it would. And I do think that it makes sense from an organizational standpoint. I mean, sometimes you just, I think it would probably work for both parties. I think that just, I think Harbaugh and the organization needed a change. You've had all of these blown leads, these heartbreaking losses to end seasons over the years.
Starting point is 00:07:52 And I think losing to the Steelers to miss the playoffs in the fashion that they did was the straw that broke the camel's back. And I even said, like, I was, it was, I think Harbaugh is a good coach. And I think he did a tremendous job over. his tenure brought a Super Bowl to Baltimore. But I did that decision not to run another play and get more yards. That is the hardest stadium to kick in in the NFL and to
Starting point is 00:08:19 go back two yards with a young kicker. The best kicker in the league just missed an extra point. Yeah, just missed an extra point. So that was just a gut punch and a tough way for Harbaugh to end his
Starting point is 00:08:37 18 year tenure in Baltimore, but I do think it was time and it seemed also that like the relationship between Lamar and Harbaal was potentially splintered a bit so that might have had
Starting point is 00:08:53 something to do with it. We'll see how much say Lamar has in this decision and what his, how long his future will be in Baltimore but it's, I As a Ravens fan, I'm okay with it, even though I like Carball.
Starting point is 00:09:10 A lot of fans are delusional. Like, you go to any fan base in the NFL, there are so many that just think, no matter what, no matter who they are, they think their coach is awful, right? It could be anyone. Like, there's a ton of 49ers' fits. I think Shattahan's awful. There's a ton of that. Any fan base you find, you'll just see like,
Starting point is 00:09:29 Shannhanhan, because they're less like you're winning Super Bowls every year. He shut him up a little bit this year, but it got, last year got ugly. Yeah. But people don't realize, like winning Super Bowl is hard. Like, but I liked Harbaal, but I thought it was time for a change. I'm very curious to see who they bring in. What's your guess? What's your guess?
Starting point is 00:09:53 I'm kind of thinking maybe Khrushula is a name that I could see them going. But I just, I don't know the direction they want to take. What's that? Not Jesse Minter. I could. Yeah, would mint. I could see Minter, too. Minter, Cliff Kingsbury combo?
Starting point is 00:10:15 Yeah, that's a lot of the rumblings are around Cliff. I don't know if he would be, I don't like Cliff as a head coach. I think he can be a good offensive coordinator, but that'll come down to, I could see that working with Lamar. It's such a soft, soft offense for Baltimore. You know, even with when they got run heavy with Rome, it is a physical run game. Cliff, I don't know, man.
Starting point is 00:10:41 You're talking to a Cliff hater. From a football standpoint, seems like a great guy. No, I'm not a big Cliff guy either. I would not. Hopefully he's not the head coach. I would, I've been trashy. That would be insane. I mean, you can't fire John Harbaugh for Cliff Kingsbury.
Starting point is 00:10:55 If I was a Raven fan, I would boycott. That's not allowed. I would actually love if it's mentor. So we'll see. It'll be an interesting offseason. There's also like the, you just can't, not like Lamar in his in his prime in his peak was as good as any quarterback you'll ever see in this league but part of what made him so dominant was his speed and his ability you had to respect his
Starting point is 00:11:27 rushing ability and his ability to create and you know buy time and scramble and then hit plays downfield he's not getting any younger and the accumulation of all these injuries what does that due to him over time. Hard to say. Obviously wasn't healthy this year, but yeah, I'm super cute. It's going to be a very, very interesting offseason. I think just as important as nailing the head coach, they need to go, this is my number, this would be, and they have a really good GM, really good owner, really
Starting point is 00:11:58 good scout team. Their number one priority in the draft has to be addressing the edge rush. They had no edge rush, and it is very difficult. to win in the NFL in 2025 if you can't get pressure. And I mean, that's going to be a concern. We're going to talk to 49ers. That's going to be a concern for the 49ers. That's probably going to prevent them for making a run.
Starting point is 00:12:19 It's their defense and their inability to generate pressure. And that plagued the Ravens all year. They need to address that, whether it's in free agency or the draft. This is a draft class that's loaded with edge talent. So they need to hit there because a lot of the other pieces are there for them to make a run next year. but it'll be an interesting offseason in Baltimore for sure. That's where I think it's a big advantage for, you know,
Starting point is 00:12:46 the Chiefs end up blowing that game. And they draft ninth. It's pretty easy to move up a couple spots and get all of a sudden, it's like, God, the Chiefs got the best defensive lineman in the draft. You know, and that can change your future. You know, the other thing I would think of- So Raiders, so-Rater is to make a 60-yard or give the Chiefs a better draft. But you'd mentioned it last week once the Cowboy started
Starting point is 00:13:08 tanking at halftime, which a little ironic because they didn't even own, they don't own their pick, right? They had the Packers picks, which didn't even matter. I don't know. I mean, classic cowboys, what a win for the Jets. Yeah, the Jets have their, the Jets had a pretty good day, right? I mean, the Jets, obviously they stink, but the other thing is I saw Stifansky spent a couple days with the Giants. And now, you know, Harbaugh, you couldn't hire Stapansky over Harbaugh. But if you're Stefansky, if you've just been with the most dysfunctional organization or one of them in all of sports for a while, would you just want to take a deep breath? And if I'm Mara, the easiest way to get people like, okay, John, you're back.
Starting point is 00:13:54 Convince Harbaugh, use him as your offensive coordinator. Hey, Kevin, all you got to do is focus on offense. We'll pay you like $5, $6 million a year. You might just be one and done. You don't want Cardinals, the Titans, that's the same thing you were just, dealing with. Come here and you'll have the pick of the litter and you'll stock where I wonder if they're trying a little package deal. Obviously, they didn't know Harbaugh was going to be available when they first got Safansky. But if I'm them, I double down on Stafansky and be like, listen,
Starting point is 00:14:20 come here with John. He'll let you run the offense. Can you imagine that if you're the Giants fan and you got Harbaugh as head coach, and now, listen, I know people are going to want Defansk as their head coach. But if you're Stafansky, why would you want these organizations where people just go like two and three and done all the time? I wouldn't touch these teams. I wouldn't touch these teams that are available? I mean, that would be, that would be very intriguing if they got Harbaal and Stafancy, because, yeah, I mean, Stefancy, he was just put in a position where how was he going to succeed?
Starting point is 00:14:48 Number one, in that division, number two, with the Deshaun Watson, and he made it clear. They got that, his team got that hour away that he disagreed with the Watson trade. Was that leaked in the last couple days? I didn't even see that. It got leaked like an hour after it was announced he was fired. So, yeah, he was just putting, I mean, two-time coach the year. By the way, the last five, besides O'Connell last year, all of the
Starting point is 00:15:13 coach of the years since 2019 were fired. Brable, who's obviously been rehired, but Harbaugh, Stephansky twice, who's, uh, who's on the, uh, why is his name slip to me? The Bears coach. Nagy, um, got fired. It's pretty crazy how, how quick things can turn in the NFL. I think that would be great. And then maybe there's like Harbaugh convinced Wink Martindale to come be the defensive coordinator. But if they just need to address like the secondary a bit. And if they can get that. And I think it's the fancy offense with the way he wants to operate his offense with a mobile quarterback in Dart.
Starting point is 00:15:52 There's potential there. So yeah, that's, I think that would be a great landing spot for Stafansky. And I think that would be a win for the Giants if they can pull that off. Today's show is brought to you by our presenting sponsor Hard Rock Bet, the official sportsbook partner of the AFC South champion Jacksonville Jaguars. Duvall is going to be jacked up this weekend. You know what I love doing with these standalone playoff games? Same game parlays, baby.
Starting point is 00:16:26 Lock in one matchup at a time and stack your picks. Maybe a quarterback throws for 250 yards. Maybe a running back hits 100. Tight end punches in a touchdown. Got you covered. And if you miss kickoff, do not worry. Hard Rock bet has live in-game betting so you're never too late to the action. Find a winner or grab a player prop you meant to play.
Starting point is 00:16:47 And live bet between snaps, it's just that easy, baby. So if you haven't tried your first bet yet at Hard Rock Bet, there's still time for you to get $150 in bonus bets if you win. Just place a $5 bet, and if it hits, you get not only your winnings, but also an extra $150 in bonus bets. That's Hard Rock Bet. Download it now and make your first deposit. today. Payable and bonus bets, not a cash offer, offered by Seminole Tribe of Florida in Florida,
Starting point is 00:17:15 offered by Seminole Hard Rock Digital LLC in all other states. You must be 21 plus and physically present in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, and Virginia to play. Terms and conditions apply. Concerned about gambling in Florida, call 1-8-33 play-play-wise. In Indiana, if you are someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-9 with it. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler. Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news.
Starting point is 00:17:56 What's the news, new? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there.
Starting point is 00:18:09 But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.
Starting point is 00:18:30 I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, for people could call in and say, hey Jonas, and then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
Starting point is 00:18:49 Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel
Starting point is 00:19:07 help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. If you're watching the latest season of the Real Housewives of Atlanta,
Starting point is 00:19:26 you already know there's a lot to break down. Gorsha accusing Kelly of sleeping with a merry man. They hold and Kay Michelle back from fighting Drew. Pinky has financial issues. I like the boozy style of Housewives show. I think it looks like it's going to be interesting. On the podcast, Reality with the King, I, Carlos King, recap the biggest moments
Starting point is 00:19:47 from your favorite reality shows, including the Real Housewives franchise, the drama, the alliances, and the team everybody's talking about. As an executive producer in reality television, I'm not just watching it. I understand the game. As somebody who creates shows, I'll even say this. At the end of the day, when people are at home, they want entertainment.
Starting point is 00:20:09 To hear this and more, listen to Reality with the King on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, I'm Jared Adano. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet. Help! Somebody! Please! But there's so much more to me than me. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian. And recently, I've become quite the helper myself. And on my new podcast, I was ho from a hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with my sage advice and thoughtful solutions. Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff rant and recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice.
Starting point is 00:20:57 One ring is too scary. Oh, cream of chicken suit. Hey, cream. Cream a chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from Hypocrite as part of the Mike Cultura podcast network available on the IHartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, let's just stay on the NFL. We'll get to college a little bit later, but I just wrote down a question.
Starting point is 00:21:30 I'll ask this to you, and this is what I wrote down. I said, who can win the Super Bowl? We'll start there before we even dive into the games. And obviously, if you're a one seed, you just got to win two games. both won seats, can get to the Super Bowl, and if you can get to the Super Bowl, you can win the Super Bowl, right? And then I wrote down in the AFC, I wrote down the Jags, the Pats, the Texans, and the Bills,
Starting point is 00:21:52 and in the NFC, I only had two other teams besides Seattle, and that was the Rams in Philadelphia. Now, people would be like, what about the Bears? I'm sorry, if your defense is equally as bad as the 49ers, I just can't take you seriously as a Super Bowl contender. So I got the two one seeds, I got four teams other than that in the AFC, and two in the NFC, so I got a total of eight teams.
Starting point is 00:22:12 Obviously, the 49ers would have been one of those teams, but the attrition is just falling off a cliff. I can't take them seriously. And again, the Bears, I put them in a similar bucket with their defense. It's just horrendous. It's just bad. And you can't, they have to win three games just to get there. And then a fourth, I can't, even Bears fans would have to acknowledge
Starting point is 00:22:35 and the ironic part about that is they're a defensive franchise, Now they have this offensive wizard when their defense stinks. It's not even necessarily their fault. I mean, Jalen Johnson looks really slow. Their D.Bs just look slow. And now I get at St. Brown and James and Williams are good. But I knew the Lions. It was so obvious.
Starting point is 00:22:51 Like this is a classic Dan Campbell's spot. He's going to play with pride. Bears a little bit of a come down. It wasn't even just the Niners game. They had had a pretty crazy month. Two Packer games. You know, it felt like they kind of came out a little slow. And those two receivers are just running left and right.
Starting point is 00:23:05 So do you think that's fair? Do you have anyone else in that mix? Yeah, I mean, look, the Bears, a great year for Ben Johnson, stud, like, should be one of the, it was in, should have been in the running for a coach of the year. What he did with them and Caleb Williams was tremendous. But this is a team. They were the first, they were only the second teams as 1985 or the strike year in 82 that had, that won a division with a losing division record, 2010 chiefs with the other team.
Starting point is 00:23:36 They easily could have been 0-and-6 in their division. They had an onside kick recovery against the Packers and that crazy win. And then they needed a long kickoff return to beat the J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings. Otherwise, they would have been 0 and 6 in the division. And they had NFL records six wins when trailing under two minutes. They easily could have lost to the Raiders, the commanders, they beat both by one. The Bengals with Flacco, they won in the final seconds there. The Giants, they won in the final seconds there.
Starting point is 00:24:01 The Vikings, the Steelers with Rudolph, and the Packers with Willis. This team easily could have lost 11 games. So, yes, I guess also start in the NFC. So what was their division record? They got swept by the Lions. And they split with the other two teams because JJ beat them week one. You're right. Yeah, two and four.
Starting point is 00:24:25 Only two teams since 1982 won their division with a losing division record. That's pretty wild. Yeah. So especially in that division, the fact that they still won it, It's pretty crazy. Someone asked me actually in a DM, could the Bears be one of the first teams ever to win their division? And like you could make the argument that they're the worst team in the division. I was like, well, Minnesota to me with their quarterback situation, the Bears quarterback situation is dramatically better.
Starting point is 00:24:51 So I would argue that. The Packers clearly would have won that division if it didn't just fall off a cliff in December with injuries, right? Yes, yes. Agreed. And the Lions had his coaching situation. But the Lions had coaching situations. It's like Johnny Morton got fired. Dan, I thought you fired him like two months ago.
Starting point is 00:25:09 He just got to keep his office. Yeah, the lines had a bunch of injuries too, defense, offensive line. But yeah, their coordinator losses and the coaching stuff definitely didn't help. But all right, so I'll start in the NFC. Like, yeah, it's so wide open because I can nitpick at every team. Like the Rams, yes, obviously. The Panthers, no. Clear no.
Starting point is 00:25:32 They cannot win it. the Eagles yes although that offense it's scary the 49ers no it's the defense not good enough so I have Eagles, Rams the Seahawks
Starting point is 00:25:45 can I see Donald winning a Super Bowl it's hard but they're the one seed with that defense you have to put them in there so that's three the Bears no not with that defense the Packers I'm going to say yes
Starting point is 00:26:02 did the defense has fallen off with the injuries, especially to Parsons. But I think they beat the Bears. I mean, they're the 70. That's tough. They beat the Bears and then they would play the Seahawks. Like, could you get a darnold game? Sure. And then like, it's hard for me to see them beating the Rams, but I'll hesitantly put the Packers. Like, their offense is going to be healthy now. They can just outscore teams. So that's four in the NFC. In the AFC, you know, Broncos is the one seat, so you have to put them there. Steelers, no.
Starting point is 00:26:39 Texans with that defense, yeah. Jags, yes. Bills, yes. Patriots, no, with that offensive line. I guess Patriots, yes. So as the two-seat, I'm not a full-on believer yet. We'll get to that. But, yeah, I mean, in the AFC, honestly,
Starting point is 00:27:03 the only team I can't see winning it is the Steelers. The Charter's offensive line is going to make it tough. But with that defense, Harbaal, Herbert, I mean, you can't completely count them out. So I think the AFC, like, you can tell me any team, but the Steelers got to the Super Bowl. Agreed. And I wouldn't be shocked. Okay, let's just start Saturday afternoon. Rams, massive favorite on the road against a team that lost in a winner-get-in game
Starting point is 00:27:29 because it wasn't actually a winner-get-in game because Atlanta, as we saw, won the game, which for a split second, it felt like Tyler Shuck was going to lead him down the, field and win the game that he throws the pick. I haven't even checked the weather in Carolina, but it can be, this isn't, you know, I think when you say some of these southern places, you know, in Tampa it was raining, but it wasn't cold. Carolina could get cold. I know you're a weather guy because you, what's the outlook there.
Starting point is 00:27:56 This is just stay away from me. The 10 and a half, that's a huge number. I thought the Rams, if Jacoby, if that play doesn't get called back, I think it called that a personal foul on the offensive lineman, Wilson caught like a 70-yard bomb, and it was 23 to 20. It felt like they were going to score. It was going to be 27 to 23.
Starting point is 00:28:15 And you're like, what is going? You could see the look on McVeigh's face where he felt a little lost. Like, I don't know what to do here. Yeah, in a game where he wanted to play the starters to play better. He was trying to win. Yeah, what is going on against a team that has been, that is just basically a practice squad with all their injuries that's been getting blown out every week.
Starting point is 00:28:34 Wilson looked like. Pooka Nakua in that game. He was making sweet plays. Yeah, he was incredible. Incredible year for him. Yeah, so this is at 10 and a half 11, which would be the largest road favorite in NFL playoff history,
Starting point is 00:28:49 which is pretty insane. These two teams played in November. The spread closed 10. The Panthers won outright, but it was extremely fluky. I mean, the Rams in that game had a 60% success rate.
Starting point is 00:29:05 They led the league for the entire season at 50%. They had a 76% rush success rate, which is insane. By the way, they led the league there at 50%. So, but what happened in that game? Well, you had Stafford pick six. You had a fourth down bomb, another fourth down bomb, and a third and eight, 35-yard touchdown. Like, not sustainable.
Starting point is 00:29:33 The Panthers in that game, they only had a 30-day. what, the 38% success rate, which would have been like bottom four in the league. They didn't do much except hit these, like, very high-leverage plays. And Rams turned it over three times. However, I will say in that game, they didn't have any of their linebackers who were hurt. They didn't have J.C. Horn, who had a concussion, their top corner. They didn't have Morrig, their starting safety who was suspended for the, at the end of the 49ers game the week before. So they were extremely short-handed on defense.
Starting point is 00:30:05 They still force Stafford into a bunch of mistakes. And I will say, for whatever reason, Stafford has really struggled against his old coordinators, Rahim Morris and Ivoro. He's faced them four times, and he has 11 interceptions. And I think he's a really good defense coordinator. He doesn't really have a lot of talent to work with in Carolina. But that McVeigh-Shannhree this year,
Starting point is 00:30:34 he kind of owned them. I mean, you had Stafford, who had the three turnovers, and they were completely decimated. Brock Purdy had, what, three picks against the Panthers? And Jordan Love lost outright to the Panthers at home. So, like, their defense has something on this. And Stafford historically has struggled with defenses. You don't want to blitz him.
Starting point is 00:30:56 I don't think Carolina will blitz. They historically don't. The defenses that disguise their coverages post-snapsed, Stafford has struggled with. If you want to go into where Stafford struggled, the Panthers disguised their coverages post-snap at the highest rate in the league. So I think that they're going to try,
Starting point is 00:31:12 you know, they're going to play a ton of cover three, disguise their coverages, try and take away explosive plays. So I think they think maybe can hang a little bit more than some people think. And also you have to think, is Kevin Dotson healthy. The offensive line for the Rams is not the same without him.
Starting point is 00:31:26 How healthy is Devante Adams, right? He had two touchdowns in the first meeting. So all of this is to say that I'm looking at an under. I want to get a 47. It's at 46 and a half right now. Outdoor totals, by the way, in the wildcard round, above 44. 31 and 10 to the under since 2003. That's 76%.
Starting point is 00:31:46 Just an incredible clip. But I think that the Panthers defense, which will be healthy this time around, play a lot of zone. Can they keep the Rams to like 28? Sure. And this Panthers offense, it's, I can't see them doing much. they like are they going to hit a bunch of fourth down bombs again maybe but the rushing offense is broken I mean this is since week 10 they're 27th in rush success rate 29th and rush EPA their backs are worn
Starting point is 00:32:14 down like Bryce young I can't see him shredding this Rams defense so what is the ceiling for the panthers it's 17 but I wouldn't be shocked if they only scored 10 points it's hard for me to see them doing much maybe there's some home playoff vood with the crowd, which should be excellent. But I think the number is about right. I'm looking at an under here. This to me, I project this like 2817 Rams. Wouldn't be surprised if it's like 2810 Rams or 2414 somewhere in that ballpark.
Starting point is 00:32:48 Another really small little thing. These are two of the best kickoff teams in the NFL as far as opposing starting field position. They both do it really well. So that's just like, you know, an extra 10, maybe 15 yards. on some drives that the other offense will have to go. Weather should be good, though. It's going to be like 60, I think, not much wind, but it is outdoors. But I'm looking at the under.
Starting point is 00:33:12 I do think the Rams should advance unless it is an extremely fluky game. And the Rams still had a chance to win that game despite all those flukes. But I'm looking at it under there. Don't really love anything, though. Okay. If I had to list the top five games of just that I enjoyed the most during the 2025, season. I think both Bears and Green Bay games would be there. The first time they matched up in Lambo was just the second half was thrilling. And obviously the ending in the second one is one of
Starting point is 00:33:42 the crazier things you saw all season long. These games, the Ben Johnson thing has resurrected this rivalry, which did not exist because as Aaron Rogers would tell you, I fucking own you. And he did. It was a joke. And I just think there's something cool about this matchup now. They get to play. I heard a stat that they've only played twice in the history of the playoffs and they both been in Chicago, one going back to the 40s, and then one was that Cutler game in 2000, I guess it would have been like January 2011, but listen, the Bears never led in either game to the final play, right? So, and it took the onside kick. I just, I don't know, there's something about me and I'm a guy that had money on Green Bay to make it to the Super Bowl.
Starting point is 00:34:26 I cashed out of that one as it started getting ugly, but I decided, I've said, I don't even like the Bears because of their defense to make a legitimate run. But I don't know if Green Bay is the team they could take advantage of that. Now, obviously, they get essentially gave themselves a buy last week, right? So that's going to help. I think, you know, Tom's coming back. They got some reinforcements coming. You think it serves Jacobs, you know, a little bit to get a breather.
Starting point is 00:34:50 I think the problem is I see with them, and I've always supported Jordan Love, but Malik Willis has gave their team a rushing element. I'm not calling him Lamar Jackson, but he was huge for them. right movement-wise and that's not really how jordan loved place so this could be extremely cold the thing that was so cool about the second game is we you know in most of our adult lives you know unless you go way back to like the erlacker briggs days these bears home games just haven't mattered and at night and we get so used to watching like the ravens and the steelers and those plays rocking at night or lamo rocking at night or kansas city now you just kind of
Starting point is 00:35:29 forget like that place had a collegiate feel to it. I mean, that place is going to be on fucking fire. I'm taking the Bears in this game. You know, as a home dog, Ben Johnson, you know, I get LaFleur might be fighting for his Green Bay job, right? I mean, now he would immediately get another job with one of these franchises, but there is a chance that they don't extend him, right, if he were to lose this game by like 10 points. Obviously, the Green Bay Packers are well coached, but I'm going to ride Ben Johnson and a little bit of that Washington commanders last year fairy dust on the franchise this year?
Starting point is 00:36:04 Yeah, this is the first home playoff game for the Bears since the double doink. So crowd will be fired up. I played the Packers plus one earlier this week since I made them a favorite. I just went over the Bears like a pretty fluky year. I mean, they also were plus 22 turnover margin, which led the league. The Packers were, I think, dead even. the Bears led the NFL in takeaways and fewest amount of giveaways. And they still needed like six miraculous wins against bad teams.
Starting point is 00:36:41 And you mentioned last week, I don't think that that's insignificant, getting a vibe. They tried. They tried. Yeah, the bear, but the Bears, like, week 18, both these teams had up. Their vibe was in week five. They both had early season buys and then have dealt with a number of injuries. the Packers literally took the week off, spent the week prepping for this game. And, I mean, they did nothing. The Packers, if anyone watched that game, I bet the Vikings in that game.
Starting point is 00:37:10 The Packers had, I think, seven passing yards or something. I mean, they literally just didn't do anything. You loved Minnesota last week. That was like your favorite bed of the week. Yeah, they did nothing. I mean, you could tell that they just sat everyone. So they were going to be rested. They're going to be healthier on offense, getting Tom back.
Starting point is 00:37:28 is huge. Love has been, if you look at EPA numbers, it's been the best quarterback in the NFL with a clean pocket. Well, the Bears can't get fresher. He's going to have a clean pocket here. He's going to have his weapons. His offensive line is going to be healthier. And it's, I just trust him over Caleb right now. I mean, Caleb, he's had a much, he was improved this year, but, I mean, he was still bottom three and bad throw rate. You look at completion percentage over expectation and EPA composite. Love was third. Caleb was 28th.
Starting point is 00:38:01 Early down dropback success rate. Packers 7th. Bears 26. So I could go on and on. I mean, the Bears defense. It's the big plays with Chicago offensively. Yes. But the Packers still do a good job of limiting explosive plays.
Starting point is 00:38:16 The Bears do not. And the Packers hit as many explosives as any team. Like I think that could face favor of Green Bay. Now, Chicago is going to have success running the ball. And the Packers defense has fallen off since week 11. Like they were trending towards a top five, top 10 unit, and then you lost Wyatt. And then you obviously lost Parsons, who's massive. And the trickle-down effect from there is, it can't be overstated.
Starting point is 00:38:40 So they've been bad. They've been like a bottom 10 defense since week 11. The Bears are going to have success running the ball. They do almost against anybody. But I think the Packers can limit the explosive plays here. I think Love can do his thing against it. I mean, this Bears defense is bad. I mean, if you remove turnovers, they're 30th in EPA per play.
Starting point is 00:38:59 They're 26th and early down dropback successor without turnovers. They can't stop anything. They can't get pressure. They can't stop the run. They can't stop the pass. And this Packard, while the Bears were pretty lucky in turnovers and close games, the Packers were pretty unlucky. Like, they went 0 in three in games they didn't punt.
Starting point is 00:39:15 The rest of the NFL went eight. No, it only happened 11 times. So, yeah, and here's another stat that it's going to come up in a couple games. Caleb's been better this year, still has his warts. I think Johnson will slowly keep getting him better. But this is his first playoff start. Since 2003, quarterback's making their first playoff start against the quarterback who has playoff experience, 20 and 39 straight up, 20 and 40, excuse me, 20 and 40,
Starting point is 00:39:47 and 40 straight up, 20, 39 and 1 against the spread. Very, very bad. It also applies to May versus Herbert. So love it. You just never know. This first playoff game, even at home, there's nerves, there's jitters. And historically, hasn't gone well, especially when you're facing a quarterback who already has that playoff experience under his belt. So I did play the Packers when they were a dog.
Starting point is 00:40:12 I think the crappy part for Bears fans, if you lose this game, if they would have drawn the 49ers or they would have drawn the Rams and you lose in the first round, I think people have been like, dig it a couple weeks and be like, that was an awesome season. I think losing to the Packers would tame it a little bit, especially coming into Chicago, that would suck. There's just a lot. There's a sneaky lot on the line for, I think, the way we look at the Bears moving forward, for LaFloor. I mean, that's another kind of elephant in the room. No one's really talking about it. And policy said this offseason, like, yeah, we got to see.
Starting point is 00:40:46 Now, it's the NFL not college. He technically come back on a one-year deal. Shane Stuyken and Ballard are doing it. But Green Bay doesn't really operate like that. So it's going to be interesting. It would be a sour ending for the Bears. And then especially because then you're like, we lost the Packers.
Starting point is 00:41:02 We didn't win a playoff game. He lost it at home. And now we have a first place schedule next year. Yeah, that too. Because they had the last play schedule this year. Yeah. And they still went two and four in the division. I didn't really.
Starting point is 00:41:16 For some reason, I thought three and three. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what? have some big news. What's the news? Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early
Starting point is 00:41:56 names of our band before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad,
Starting point is 00:42:11 Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite on Humor Me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman
Starting point is 00:42:34 help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get.
Starting point is 00:42:54 your podcasts. If you're watching the latest season of the Real Housewives of Atlanta, you already know there's a lot to break down. Gorsha accusing Kelly of sleeping with a merry man. They holding Kay Michelle back from fighting Drew. Pinky has financial issues. I like the bougie style of Housewives show. I think it looks like it's going to be interesting.
Starting point is 00:43:14 On the podcast, Reality with the King, I, Carlos King, recap the biggest moments from your favorite reality shows, including the Real House Wise franchise. the drama, the alliances, and the T, everybody's talking about. As an executive producer in reality television, I'm not just watching it. I understand the game. As somebody who creates shows, I'll even say this. At the end of the day, when people are at home, they want entertainment.
Starting point is 00:43:41 To hear this and more, listen to Reality with the King on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. The story I've told myself about love or love. relationships can then shape my behavior and that can lead me to sabotage the possibility of connection. This mental health awareness month, tune into the podcast deeply well with Debbie Brown and explore the journey of healing, self-discovery, and returning to yourself. We explore higher consciousness, emotional well-being and the practices that help you find clarity, peace, and self-mastery in a world that can feel overwhelming. The world is becoming alone.
Starting point is 00:44:24 We're not becoming more social and connected. We're becoming more individualized, but we actually meet people in connection. If you've been searching for a soft place to land while doing the work to become whole, this podcast is for you to hear more. Listen to deeply well with Debbie Brown from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Sunday. If I was, if we treated the NFL like we did college football, I think there would be people voting Jacksonville as the number one team in the country. Like they are red hot. You watch them. They look fantastic. I mean, the team speed, the physicality. Obviously how good their quarterback looks. But defensively, I mean, and I get it was the Titans. But there was a moment in that game when the linebacker had the pick. And they were just viving. And you're like, God, this feels like a college team right now that is just rolling. That being said, I'm taking Josh Allen. I don't feel great about this at all.
Starting point is 00:45:31 And if the bills lose this game, which it wouldn't shock me if we look up and the score's like 35 to 20. And I'll bet on Jacksonville from then on forward. I think they can win the Super Bowl. But if not now, then when? There's no Lamar. There's obviously no Mahomes.
Starting point is 00:45:47 It's never been this wide open for them. They have clearly the last couple years, it's like Baltimore, Kansas City, who were better teams than them. Kansas City we could debate, but definitely that year, you know, they beat Baltimore and then they lost to Kansas City, and I thought Baltimore was better last year in that second round game.
Starting point is 00:46:05 And I just think that that thing could get really weird, really fast. I just wonder if you just get Josh Allen on a mission, and maybe I'm being an idiot even thinking like this, and Jacksonville rolls them. But speaking about the Bears, speaking about, you know, some of these places, Kansas City forever. What Seattle's going to have?
Starting point is 00:46:26 You know, what you guys had in Baltimore when you get home games. Jacksonville doesn't really have a home field advantage. So I don't think that really like phases Buffalo. This isn't going on the road to Kansas City, which they are very, very comfortable. I mean, they've been in these environments now for how many years playing in these, the biggest playoff games of the year, right? And they've lost a lot of them. But I'm taking the bills here.
Starting point is 00:46:49 I do not feel great about this. And I think if he gets by this. game, I think they could go on a legit role and they could win the Super Bowl. Yeah, it sucks. This is the first, this is the matchup in the first round. Because the Jags are as hot as any team and then the bills with Alan, without him to worry about Mahomes and Lamar, like, this is, this looks like their year. And one of these teams is going to be sitting at home Sunday night. So, yeah, I think the winner of this game is very live to win the AFC. Are you surprised that the bill?
Starting point is 00:47:23 I mean, the bills are favored in this game. Is it just based on history? Because if it was reversed and Jacksonville is going to Buffalo, but, you know, the bills were playing like Jacksonville, and I think Jacksonville had just had the season the bills had, I feel like the bills would be favored by like seven points if it was reverse, right? Yeah, I mean, the Jags, look, the Jags come in, they've won eight in a row.
Starting point is 00:47:50 Now you could, now the schedule hasn't been great. some Titans Colts in there. There's a lot of Titans, a lot of Colts in there, the Jets. But you have to, there is merit to it when you blow out the chargers, blow them out of the water, and then you went to Denver, and you beat them handedly in Denver. So what has happened to the, and by the way, eight games, so they've won eight in a row. The bills have lost eight straight road playoff games. It's been a very long time.
Starting point is 00:48:18 McDermott is 0 and 5 on the road. Now, most of them, one and four against this part, most of them have come against Kansas City. One against Jacksonville, way back, I think in like 2017. And the Jags have, they have been very good at home this year. If there's seven and one against the spread, that's the best cover mark in the league, covering by 14 points per game.
Starting point is 00:48:35 And they're six and two against the spread in the first half, covering by over seven points per game. The bills in the first half on the road against the spread, three and five. Why do I bring that up? I play the Jags first half. So first half, Monday 9. But let me just, let me first touch on the Jags improvement. So what has happened? Well, since they went and got Jacobi Myers, there's been a
Starting point is 00:48:57 revelation for them. I mean, they're top four drop back success rate and drop back EPA. So Lawrence has really benefited from that. But there's other things that happen. BTJ got healthier. Cole Strange, their star tight end came back from injury. Also just a natural improvement of the Liam Cohen offense as they started to get a handle of it in his first year there. And then they moved Cole Van Lannin. They inserted him at starting tackle, kicked Walker a little inside and Van Landa, they just signed them to extension. It's been a revelation of tackle. Little has really struggled there.
Starting point is 00:49:27 It looks better suited for the guard. So like, oh, tight end, you know, offensive line changes. You add Myers. You know, you get healthier pass catchers. Like, there's reasons why this offense is starting to hum. And it's not like this Bill's defense is great. Additionally, the Jaguars defense, Monterec Brown has been a revelation at Corner. After Jordan Lewis went down, Jerry and Lewis kicked back into the slot.
Starting point is 00:49:50 They are also getting healthier. and they've been dominant against the run all year. Top five rush success rate. There's Antonio Johnson at safety's playing really well out of nowhere. So there's real thing. And their special teams are incredible. They have a kicker who's an alien.
Starting point is 00:50:05 He can make them from 70 yards. And what, 68 the other day? Yeah. 67. And I love Liam Cohen. And if you look, and Trevor Lawrence, a lot of those improvements since all those things I mentioned
Starting point is 00:50:21 have come against zone. defense, right? Over the first nine weeks of the year, he was like 19th in success rate against zone since week 10. He's third. Why is that important? Or the bills play a ton of zone? So why am I playing the Jags first half? Well, number one, the Jags in the first halves of games have been incredible. A lot of that is the Liam Cohen script. And Trevor Lawrence in particular has benefited from that. In the first half, Lawrence 13th at EPA plus completion percentage over expectation for the full season, 14th adjusted EPA per play. It's even better than that since week 10, but that's the full season. In the second half, Lawrence, 32nd in EPA plus completion
Starting point is 00:51:01 percentage of expectation and 21st in success rate. His numbers fall off. That's a lot of the script wearing off, right, and a lot of what Liam Cohen does early on in games. How about Josh Allen? First half, he's 25th in EPA plus completion percentage over expectation, 21st in adjusted EPA per play, 24th in success rate. Second half, second, second, first, fourth quarter, first, first, first, first. The bills have not started well many times here. And why? Well, they come out and they want to run the ball.
Starting point is 00:51:34 That's by design, that's what they want to do, and they want to wear teams down. But you still have Josh Allen. But their script isn't great. They just want to run the ball. That's going to go into the teeth of the Jags defense. So Jags at home with this script, I think they get a lead. where are the Jags still vulnerable? I do still think it's their secondary.
Starting point is 00:51:54 So Allen from behind in the second half, I'm not betting against that, against this Jags defense. So once like Allen has to be unleashed, I think it could be a flood coming for this Buffalo offense. But I think that there's some distinct advantages and that Cohen script early on that Jacksonville can take advantage of. So I did play in the first half money line against Buffalo.
Starting point is 00:52:16 I've just seen it too many times. And also keep in mind, Buffalo's kicking. situation. Pray if the, prethir got hurt, pretty got hurt last week. We'll see if he's healthy enough or they have to work out a kicker. So a big kicking advantage for Jacksonville. But I did play Jags for a set. That's kind of how I see this where, like I think Cohen's going to have some amazing screens
Starting point is 00:52:36 drawn up. And they're going to have success early on. But Josh Allen, once he has to, once they just have to unleash him against the, you know, his own heavy defense, uh, it could be trouble. So that's how I think. it probably plays out. I think like Jags get out to the lead and then they're going to have to hold on and it's probably Allen that leads the bills back to victory. And I agree with you. If they win this, if they win that game, I think they probably go to the Super Bowl.
Starting point is 00:53:08 Okay. Another team that was Super Bowl aspirations because they're the defending champs, the Eagles minus four and a half at home according to Hard Rock bet, the 49ers injury, list got way uglier last week. They lost both linebackers who won, you know, Tatum Bethune was already banged up. He's Fred Warner's replacement. He's out for the year, right? Yeah, done. And if this was October, he'd be in trial. It'd probably be a season. D. Winters got injured. He's in major trouble. Ricky Pearsall, by all accounts, re-injured his PCL or whatever. I think he is major up in the air, and we saw how important he was when they got rolling in those games against the Bears and the Colts for their offense, and you felt his absence,
Starting point is 00:53:54 you know, Trent, I would guess that he's going to tough it out. But I mean, he's got a legitimate hamstring injury, not even counting all the other injuries that they have. I just don't think you can have that many injuries on defense when your defense was already, you know, on the front seven was in Chambles and have a chance. And the Eagles would be crazy to not basically run at every play. And if they do, I don't know, they've been waiting all year, unleash, Galen to move around a little bit, that could also be a huge advantage. It's like the 49ers have guys, Eric Hendricks is going to start. Eric Hendricks was unemployed.
Starting point is 00:54:27 I mean, but that shows you where they're at. So, I mean, their best players are up in suites with casts and knee sleeves on. I just don't know how they play defense because they're margin for error on offense, which is now banged up. Like, it's a lot different in there with Pierce-all with a healthy kiddle and Joanne than when he's missing. it's crazy how, you know, dependent they are on them. And Philly rest to everybody.
Starting point is 00:54:51 And they're getting Lane Johnson back, who, I mean, this is not a big challenge for them against the guys. The Niners are rolling out. I mean, Huff's not bad, but I just don't think, I think the 49ers just had a gas. They're like a car that's been on empty for a while. That Bears game, they were able to win because the Bears' defense is atrocious. But you saw last week in Seattle, they just, they made Kenneth Walker and Charbonnet look like the best running back duo in American. history. I mean, it wasn't, I mean, it was a joke. That third and what was it, 17, when he got 19. Man, that was a backbreaker.
Starting point is 00:55:24 John Lynch wanted to jump out of a third and 17 sweep. That, that goes for a first time. That should only happen in like the Mac on a Tuesday night. And honestly, kind of easily. It's not like you had to break three tabs. I mean, he just kind of cut. One cut and he was there. I just think so. Sequin Barclay, the running ability. The one advantage the $49 have is that Philly, that place can just get weird. It doesn't feel like the fans really love this team. They've been a tough watch. They've gone into these huge spells. If they do have trouble scoring against the 49ers, then I think it's fair just, I'm out on the Eagles. I'm just completely out. I like Philly in this game,
Starting point is 00:56:02 and I think the 49ers, it's impressive what they've done with their injuries. The reason Kyle makes a lot of money is because a lot of these coaches losing all over the league would lose in this situation with all these injuries, and he got to 12 wins. And you can tell me the schedule that they still won. I mean, that Bears game is a game that most coaches in the league can't pull off, right? Yeah. No, Shannon did an incredible job.
Starting point is 00:56:22 I wanted to fade the Eagles. I'm totally out on the offense, but I just can't hear in this particular matchup with all the injuries. I mean, Luke Gifford, too, the other linebacker for the four linebacker is dealing with a quad injury. Like, they could have their top four linebackers all out, including Warner. It's bleak. Now, I will say the Eagles offense legitimately just beats it. against, it doesn't matter who they play, will beat itself for like a whole half every week.
Starting point is 00:56:54 So, I mean, go look at the Dallas game. Dallas has an atrocious defense. They didn't score in the second half in that game. There's a number of examples of like, they just can't do it. And like the four hours are, what, they do have an advantage with Sala versus Petula. Like, that's a huge advantage.
Starting point is 00:57:08 So what is Sala going to do here? I assume, like, because the 49ers defense since all these injuries has been really bad, especially Warner and Bosa, but then you just add on more injuries and makes it worse. The one thing they've done is they limit explosive plays, both on the ground and through the air, and they hold up well on the red zone. Like, that's got to be their goal here.
Starting point is 00:57:26 Just limit explosive plays, make the Eagles drive the field, get stops in the red zone. Now, the Eagles are number one in the league in red zone touchdown rate, 70%. I don't buy that. It's a very high, a lot of variance in that stat from season to season.
Starting point is 00:57:39 And like last year, they'd have way better offense. They were 55%. So I could see some potential, like, there's some looming regression coming for the Eagles. they could just end up settling for a bunch of field goals here. So I ended up playing the under here.
Starting point is 00:57:51 Outdoor under, there's going to be impactful wins. It's hard for me to see that 49ers' offense having much success. I don't think Pearson is going to be 100%. I'm not even sure Williams will go. And this Eagles defense will be rested. Fangio historically has gotten the better of Shanahan. I think they've met five times head-to-head, whether Chinan's a coordinator or head coach,
Starting point is 00:58:09 Shanahan has yet to clear 15 points, has averaged about 10 and a half points per game. So, yeah, and like the Eagles, are number one against tight ends. They're number one against short passes. Like the one weak area of this Eagles defense is their second corner on the outside, which
Starting point is 00:58:25 would be beautiful. It'd be very nice to have a healthy pierceol to take advantage of that, but that's not even the case here with the PCL injury, not even sure he suits up. Their linebacker play is just so good against the Niners run game, which you throw Jordan Davis, some of the bodies they have.
Starting point is 00:58:41 I mean, Fangio's turned hunt into a pretty high-end player. You see, he's got he's got three picks and he had three more picks in the jets. Yeah. I'm insane. So like it's hard for me to see the 40. And you look at this 49ers office. You mentioned Pearsall.
Starting point is 00:58:56 They exploded down the stretch. But when they had a play, when they had to step up, you know, against the Seahawks, um, even all year when they stepped up in class against defenses, like they average only 17 points against the seven top 10 defenses that they play. I think that's like their ceiling here. They're a line. They're a line got worked. against Seattle. I mean, that's destroyed.
Starting point is 00:59:18 The Jalen Carter and Hunt and the linebackers, Blitzin, got to be licking their chops to go up against these guys. I mean, Pleasant if he's got to play. I mean, it was a tough matchup, but Jesus. I mean, there's, you talk about a fall from Trent to that guy. I mean, pretty big. Yeah. McKivitz, the Niners love him, but I mean, I, let's not, let's not pretend he's Lane Johnson or anything.
Starting point is 00:59:40 Yeah. So I, so I played the under. Like, I think the 49er's stealing here without. flukes and the Eagles don't turn the ball over. 17 points. Can the 49ers hold the Eagles under 28? Like, keep them the 28ter below? I think so.
Starting point is 00:59:55 Like, the Eagles only got the 30 plus four times this year. Against the Raiders, they got to 31. Against the Giants, which is their only explosion, really. They got to 38. They got to 31 against the bucks. And then they got to 33 against the Rams. because of a fuel goal block with no time left. So really only three times all year.
Starting point is 01:00:19 And they played some bad defenses. And there's a real scenario here where the Eagles are up two touchdowns. And there's no one better that just bleeds out the entire second half with like a 12-minute drive. They're like a service academy. I mean, this is a team that won two games as you're without completing a pass in the second half, the NFL record. So I played the under. I would lean Philly with you. I think the injuries to Sanfran are too much to overcome.
Starting point is 01:00:45 on the road here and the defense just isn't good enough. It's too hard to win the NFL when you can't get pressure. Look this morning, Hard Rock Bed had the Chargers getting four points on the road in New England. I'm going to keep this pretty simple here. Harbaugh Herbert on the road against a team, like the one thing you would say about New England, that they're not exactly rolling out Jalen Carter and Hunt coming after you from a pass rush standpoint. 27th adjusted pressure rate. So you can't take advantage of their offensive line.
Starting point is 01:01:15 I have seen Harbaugh, like Shanahan in a situation where he, you know, Shanahan doesn't have enough right now, but Harbaugh has enough to, like, win a playoff game. I like the charges in this spot plus four. Now, I don't know if they win the game, but this is a spot now. There's a pressure on Herbert, right, plays that playoff game last year. All the haters came out of the woodworks because it was ugly. I mean, it's probably the worst game he's ever played in his entire life, going back to, like, peewey football. So I think he's got a lot to play for.
Starting point is 01:01:42 I just think the Harbaugh mentality, and this goes back, Fanjo was talking about this when asked about some of his teams back in the day with Jim. They are built, you know, from a physicality standpoint, from a toughness standpoint, how just their mentality on defense. Now, they've got to run the ball. You know, I've been a little, you know, I'm not the biggest Hampton guy, but I like the Chargers in this spot.
Starting point is 01:02:08 Now, New England, there is no disputing, you know, from a coaching standpoint, point, they're going to be ready. I mean, Josh is, how many games has Josh been an offensive coordinator in in January games? My guess would be like 50. I mean, I don't know. It's got to be close to an NFL record for being the pure offensive coordinator, not offensive coordinator and, you know, the head coach, like a Mike Shanahan or an Andy Reed.
Starting point is 01:02:28 I'm just talking the old, I'm only an offensive coordinator. He has to own the record. And obviously, Brables had a ton of success in playoff games. Some of those, right, came on the road, though. He did lose the home game against Cincinnati. In fairness to him, Tanny Hill. played like me or you in that game. He's throwing a bunch of picks. It was atrocious. But I like the charges in this spot. I know their offensive line. I'm not like picking them to go on some crazy run here.
Starting point is 01:02:52 But I think they're an extremely live dog going on the road against New England. First time, you brought up first time playoff games. Yeah. He's not a rookie quarterback. He's not a rookie quarterback. But first start against a quarterback. I was a plow of experience. Yeah. Historically, that is not going well, even at home. And he, and listen, he's been awesome. I'm not some Drake Mayhater at all. But a little like Caleb. like at USC they didn't really plan that many important games. He definitely didn't in North Carolina. So it's not like, well, he started a Bama for two years or LSU or Ohio State. Like this is his first year kind of in the bright lights.
Starting point is 01:03:22 Let's be real. This is also the hardest defense by far, a little faced all year. I mean, the Chargers are second and EPA allowed over the past 10 weeks. I mean, the Pat's played nobody all year. I mean, you want to, and then their defense, even their defense. these are they only played one team with a winning record all year that's it one team the bills the bills and they split with them and then their schedule which is the easiest in 25 years was even easier than that because they faced the ravens with tyler huntley they faced the saints with spencer rattler they faced the browns or the bengals with joe flaco they faced the browns with dylan gabriel
Starting point is 01:04:06 the Jets with Justin Fields, the Dolphins with Quinn Ewers, the Jets with Brady Cook. I mean, 11 of their 14 wins basically came over rookies or backup quarterbacks or quarterbacks that were benched. Unprecedented,
Starting point is 01:04:22 easy schedules, so they're hard to price, but, like, who's the third best quarterback they faced? Or the second, because Lamar only played like a quarter, like a quarter and a half. So they played Josh Allen. Who's the second best quarterback they face? I guess I would say,
Starting point is 01:04:36 say Baker? And that was in the second half the year where he was either hurt or I don't know what happened. He was one of the worst quarterbacks in the league over the second half of the year. And they were missing like a bunch of weapons. And then the next, how about the third best quarterback they faced this year? I don't, I don't, Bryce Young, I don't even know.
Starting point is 01:04:58 Flacco maybe. I have no idea. So this will be a big test for their defense, which is dealt with injuries late in the season. And and Drake May. And Drake May has been incredible. His deep ball is incredible,
Starting point is 01:05:11 but this is the Chargers defense under Minter that takes away the deep ball as well as any defense in the league. And May, he did get away with a number of throws this year. I mean, he finished 31 touchdowns, eight interceptions, but 26 big-time throws,
Starting point is 01:05:23 17 turnover-worthy plays. You go back to that Ravens game, he should have thrown a couple picks. So I wouldn't be shocked if Minter tricks him in to a couple interceptions. The Pat's also pretty lucky when it came to fumbles this year.
Starting point is 01:05:34 They also went 18 of 25 on fourth downs, and their opponents went just 10 of 30. And so, like, they got pretty lucky. A little commander's thing to them. Yes, very much so. And here's where, so Minter's going to run a ton of zone, prevent explosive plays, make the Pat score in the Red Zone,
Starting point is 01:05:52 and the Chargers, two straight seasons, have been elite in the Red Zone. Charter's offense isn't great in the Red Zone, but this Pat's defense was bottom three in Red Zone defense, and they played, I just told you, the schedule they played. So, yeah, I agree. And Herbert, by the way, 12, 2, and 1, against a spread as an underdog
Starting point is 01:06:08 of more than a field goal. To wrap it all back to what you said initially, I wrote this game up for Action Network in our app. This is my sentence. I said, I'll happily take an elite quarterback and staff with the clearly superior defense catching over a field goal in the playoffs
Starting point is 01:06:20 against a quarterback, making his first career postseason start. Yeah, give me the Chargers here. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers, and guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, huge news?
Starting point is 01:06:38 We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special.
Starting point is 01:06:52 So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking, I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this.
Starting point is 01:07:12 We were talking about a thing. a bit for the podcast where people could call in and say, hey Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends.
Starting point is 01:07:39 Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman helped make you funny. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 01:08:03 Hey, I'm Jared Adano. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet. Help! Somebody! Please! But there's so much more to me than that. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian, and recently I've become quite the helper myself. And on my new podcast, Hope from a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with my sage advice and thoughtful solutions.
Starting point is 01:08:27 Sike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant, recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice. one ring is too scary. Oh, cream of chicken suit. Hey, cream.
Starting point is 01:08:48 Cream a chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from Hypocrat as part of the Mike Coultera podcast network available on the I-Hart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. If you're watching the latest season of the Real Housewives of Atlanta, you already know there's a lot to break down.
Starting point is 01:09:10 Of course, you're accusing Kelly of sleeping with a merry man. They holding Kay Michelle back from fighting Drew. Pinky has financial issues. I like the bougie style of Housewives show. I think it looks like it's going to be interesting. On the podcast, Reality with the King, I, Carlos King, recap the biggest moments from your favorite reality shows, including the Real Housewives franchise,
Starting point is 01:09:32 the drama, the alliances, and the team everybody's talking about. As an executive producer in reality television, I'm not just watching it. I understand the game. As somebody who creates shows, I'll even say this. At the end of the day, when people are at home, they want entertainment. To hear this and more, listen to Reality with the King on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Okay, we will get the nightcap on Monday with a team that took a windy miss field goal from not even being in this spot.
Starting point is 01:10:14 Now, they do get D.K. Mek-F back. Cam Hayward looked like he was 28 years old in that game. He was incredible. You know, TJ was a step slow in that last play to likely, and then he blasted Lamar, but felt like you felt the pressure from other guys. Now, maybe if you go back and look at the All-22, they were keeping an eye on him more. I mean, Jalen Ramsey blew that one play.
Starting point is 01:10:37 Clearly, he bit on it, and he was in no man's land. And Zay Flowers just walked to the end zone. I mean, this defense, I just hard. to trust the Steelers in this spot. Now, Underdog, at home, they haven't lost a Monday night football game since like 1991. Am I getting that stat right? Yeah, I think 33 years. Yeah, so it's been a while.
Starting point is 01:10:58 Now, they lost a Monday afternoon game in the COVID year. Don't count. Don't count. I know, it doesn't count. But I'm saying I was looking back at it. It was weird. They moved a game to like 5 o'clock. That year was there was like Tuesday games, Wednesday games.
Starting point is 01:11:11 But yeah, 33 straight years. Do the Texans strengths? take advantage of what Pittsburgh stinks at. He'll get rid of the ball fast. He's not looking, he might throw a lot of passes attempts, but it's not like he's run around back there. Is there a little upset potential here? Now, I'm rooting for the Texans here.
Starting point is 01:11:30 I'm going to take the Texans minus three. But I can see where this thing is a little close at halftime. We talk about the voodoo, the magic in Pittsburgh. Hell, we just saw it. That's all you got to look at. Bounce off like three guys, bounced off guys, chess. I mean, hell, even the touchdown for Rogers, I mean, the DB slips. Falls down.
Starting point is 01:11:50 Now, in fairness, that was happening to Baltimore, too. They're blowing coverages, but that whole thing just got wacky for both guys. Yeah, that was crazy. You know, if they lose this game, is Tomlin next? I mean, are we, does Harbaugh get fired on a Tuesday? Does Tomlin get fired or slash traded or go to TV next week? Who knows? I, you know, I could see Pittsburgh putting up a little fight here,
Starting point is 01:12:12 but I do think if the Texas offense just shows up, I don't know, it's going to be a tough match, especially because the DB play. I mean, Lasseter and Stingley can neutralize. I mean, those guys can play. Lasseter has to play. I believe they just held him out for precautionary reasons last week. So he's been dealing with an injury.
Starting point is 01:12:30 I'm assuming he'll, like, though, like not DMP or limited practice in full on Friday in play. The drop off to Tremont Smith, I think, is a crater. if he's in there. Yeah, it's hard for me. Like Petrie will be huge in this game, defending a lot of what the Steelers want to do. They might miss darn out Washington here.
Starting point is 01:12:52 You got to remember, the Steelers' offense wasn't doing anything against the Ravens who can't get any pressure until Kyle Hamilton, who might be like the most valuable defensive play in the league. He went out. They averaged like 3.5 yards before Hamilton went out, and then 6.8 after. I mean, he's basically like an all-playing like an all-pro linebacker.
Starting point is 01:13:09 He does every. thing for them. When you put Petrie kind of in that world? I mean, he's a pretty unique player. Yeah, he can be, because he can defend the run. He's stud. I love that. Yeah, I love him.
Starting point is 01:13:21 They really missed him last year when he went down. But yeah, I mean, like this is historically dome teams, these indoor teams that go on the road in the playoffs when it's under 30 degrees. I think they're like one in 14, their last 15 games. They don't do well. And now you go to do it. Texans had to account for a lot of those, right? For a lot of those JJ Watts-Shob teams,
Starting point is 01:13:45 they would win at home. And then the second round would go on the road to New England, go on the road to whoever and lose. Yeah. So, yeah, how did the Texans handle that? The Steelers are going to blitz a ton, I assume, and Stroud's been very poor against the blitz. Can their offensive line hold up?
Starting point is 01:14:01 Rodder's been bad against pressure. I assume it's just going to be a lot of quick passes, a lot of game well. The total is 39 and a half. So, like, this spread was three. and a half. I think it made sense. I wish I took some three and a half to clear out the three and a half and what should be a low scoring game. Probably comes down to like a fluky player or two. Could see the Steelers winning. How about the one Roger scramble where he kind of found himself
Starting point is 01:14:24 in no man's land and they just stopped? It's like, what was that? That was hilarious. So if I had to I'd take the points, but would have preferred three and a half. Still got to dig into that some more on a Monday night. By the way, if I had a quick question, I don't think I've asked you before. If you had a pick, if you were, if I, you were kidnapped and you were held in a TV-less prison,
Starting point is 01:14:47 and they allowed you to leave for one weekend of the NFL playoffs, would you choose wildcard weekend, divisional round, or conference championships? I'd probably choose the second round because you get more games, so I get Saturday and Sunday, so I get a couple days of life. It feels like by then you got the best teams kind of get rid of the riffraff this weekend. You don't have like Panthers Rams game.
Starting point is 01:15:18 Yeah, so I'd probably choose. Now you get a little more inventory. You know, do I get three days away from my captures? You know, do I get Saturday, Sunday, and Monday? So, I mean, but I would probably choose the second round. Yeah, I think that's a very important. So let's get out of here on college first. football like we did with the Super Bowl, you know, I mean, now we're at 14. I think it's fair to say
Starting point is 01:15:42 all four teams could win the national championship. Ole Miss, pretty heavy underdog relative to the other two. Indiana, heavy favorite right now, like plus 120 to win the Natty. I do think Miami, I mean, we'll get into this. I like Miami a lot in this game. And I just think they're, you know, to get them three to one to win the Natty where the Natty's going to be at home if they take care of which is a pretty pretty cool for them i mean it's you know indiana's had the turnout they've had in these games rightfully so at ohio state or in the rosepole it just feels like these indiana home games that would be the first time where it's like that miami thing would be pretty special uh Mario the offensive line i also think Oregon and i was telling coward this you know a lot of
Starting point is 01:16:30 dan landings things like his whole mantra and his pregame speeches they're favored in a lot of these games. So he's having to like manipulate them a little bit. I think he's learned this from Sabin and Kirby. Now he's like a legitimate underdog. I don't think you're going to meet many people that aren't like, yeah, I think Indiana's going to, most people are picking Indiana to win the national championship. And they are legitimately an underdog on paper. I would just imagine most people are not picking Oregon.
Starting point is 01:16:56 You know, the thing with Sabin and Kirby, they didn't get to be the dog a lot of times, but when they did, they could go into fucking rare form. And it's against a team that beat you on your own field. Yeah, so they've played. I saw their linebacker being interviewed yesterday. He's like, you know, coming off that Penn State game, we might have had a little bit of just overlooked him. I wouldn't have said that.
Starting point is 01:17:16 I wouldn't have said that. I wouldn't either because then I would have said nothing. I would have said nothing. You have all that advantage in house. I wouldn't have said anything. Yeah, I would just, you know, to me, Miami, he's just a tough, violence, rah-rah, we're going to kick ass. Ole Miss, I don't even know Pete's thing.
Starting point is 01:17:35 But those two guys, Sig and Dan, are classic. Like, use every different angle, create a story, chip on her shoulder. I do think Oregon is just, everyone's overlooking them. And obviously, Indiana is, I mean, the two games stretch. They've had the greatest two games stretch in the history of the program. They beat Ohio State to win the conference. And then they, it felt like they ended Alabama, who feel like they're kind of in shambles right now,
Starting point is 01:17:59 struggling to get transfer portal guys. But that's a whole other. Ty Simpson just left, but I think they want to go with the five-star. so it's not even, Ty Simpson wasn't coming back, right, to be their starting quarterback. So it's not even that weird, depending on where he went. I just, I think Miami and Oregon would be interesting. I'm not counting out Oregon in this spot. So just to win a national, can all four teams win the national championship?
Starting point is 01:18:21 Yeah, I think so. It's hard to, it's hard to really price and quantify of like what's Ole Miss right now. Like they have more guys on the staff Aren't gonna be on with them like what does that do? And how much of an impact? We never seen anything like this so there's no precedent like It's pretty crazy. So does that hurt over time? I don't know But this Trinidad Chambliss I mean
Starting point is 01:18:51 That's second half against Georgia. He looks like prime Lamar. It looks like it was insane the way that he's playing like and that's critical He's like unsackable unpressurable and that's that's what you need to do against Miami because Bain and Messador just wrecking and saying the statue. So he just creates plays and buys time. That's going to be huge against Miami. Mario versus Joe Judge clock management. So whoever's up with a minute to go is probably going to lose. But the thing is they ran the ball. Obviously Lacey is a really good player. I was reading that Miami is a top five run defense, but really like the way they're playing right now, there's probably no one better like in the country. You know, when you factor in how
Starting point is 01:19:32 they've really brought it the last couple weeks. If they could run the ball and got some big spots against Georgia, who clearly, and you've been hammering this, is not built like Miami right now. The defense line doesn't look like that. This is a different level. And so part of Trinidad, who, like you said, was awesome. That game was theater.
Starting point is 01:19:50 It didn't get any more entertaining than that. Is he going to be able to do that? You're like, well, you just did it against Georgia. Well, that ain't the Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, Georgia. That's a little bit different. And I think that's why Kirby wasn't that mad after. It's not like he thought he just lost with his best team. He knows.
Starting point is 01:20:04 Pretty flawed. Where this Miami thing, like that front, that defense in general, I do think if they can't run the ball and I do think it's going to be difficult, I kind of like, I did little alt lines. Miami's going to be able to run the ball here. I don't think, I think it's possible Miami wins this game by like 10 plus points. And you can get plus odds if you get like minus six and a half because right now it's a three and a half, but you got to lay some juice on Miami. If you go up to a round of touchdown, you're like, I, I, I, I, I, I,
Starting point is 01:20:31 I kind of, I think Miami has a chance to just kind of physically overwhelm these guys. Because I don't think Ole Miss has really felt that because the SEC physically wasn't an overwhelming conference, which is weird to say this season. Yeah, no, you're right. It's going to come down to Chambliss. Can he, can he, what kind of plays can he make an extending blaze against that Miami front? I also kind of like the over here. I know Miami's played undergames, but Ole Miss is going to pump up the tempo, try to wear down that defensive line. We saw them get kind of worn down against Ohio State when the Ohio State went to the two-minute or other than that.
Starting point is 01:21:03 Ohio State's a snail. But I think they're going to use tempo here. And then you're going to see this Miami offense, I think, need to do more and they should be able to. They're going to be able to run the ball on this Ole Misty. They're probably going to hit some more explosive plays. This is also on a track in Glendale that the field conditions are very slippery and the games always go over here. So I kind of like the over. I think it's going to be an exciting game.
Starting point is 01:21:26 Ole Miss Special teams, don't sleep on them, by the way. That Carnara, that kicker, he's incredible. Yeah, he is. But, yeah, Miami would, and it would be an amazing story. They got the national title in Miami after all the controversy of them getting in. And then they could play Oregon, who's, like, bouncing all around the country. They're playing in Atlanta, and they could end up having to go to Miami for the national title to play Miami. I don't think that Oregon doesn't have a chance.
Starting point is 01:21:52 But I do think Indiana is going to win. But I need three to bet it. I need three. like a flat three. I make it like four, a little over four. Well, how does Indiana keep doing this? I mean, one of the, if you go back to that original Oregon game and I watched it again the other day, they just beat them up the line of scrimmage. And one of the main differences between these rosters is Oregon is very young. Like, they have more talent, more blue chips, but they're very young this year. This is supposed
Starting point is 01:22:20 to be kind of a rebuilding year for Oregon. 24 touchdowns by true freshman, like a NCAA record or led the country. Insane, yeah. They lost a, ton of draft picks, rebuilt their lines. And Indiana is a team of all like 24-year-olds. So, and that showed in the first meeting, they pressured more on 20 of his 40 dropbacks. Sacked him, I think, five or six times. He was under fire the entire game.
Starting point is 01:22:46 Indiana was able to run the ball. Oregon wasn't. And then Indiana was able to get pressure. Oregon wasn't consistently. So that was the difference. And then Indiana just wins games with execution. They are the most, this team, and part of that is the veteran nature and the coaching staff and Cignetti's incredible.
Starting point is 01:23:02 But like here's where the game could be decided. Third down defense, Indiana, 29%. That's fourth in the country. Oregon's 40th. Third down offense, Indiana, 55% best in the country by far. That 55% is a lead elite. You've probably seen that five times over the past 10 years. Oregon, 43% still good, but 28.
Starting point is 01:23:20 How about giveaways? They don't turn it over. 0.6 per game. That's fourth. Oregon, very good. Point six, but 20th. Penalties per game. Indiana, 3.4, that's third in the country.
Starting point is 01:23:31 Oregon, 5.2.33. So Oregon's very good in all those little things, but Indiana's elite. They don't turn it over. They don't commit penalties. They don't let you convert on third downs, and they convert on third downs because, and they're averaged the distance to go on third downs,
Starting point is 01:23:45 the lowest in the nation, because they're able to run the ball, and they should be able to run the ball a bit on Oregon here. But I'm not laying three and a half. I think it'll be a competitive game. The biggest X factor in this game, and especially as an underdog, there's something about coaches named Dan.
Starting point is 01:24:01 DeGenerate Dan Lannning. You know he's going to go for it a bunch of on fourth, which he should as an underdog. And there's, I mean, he went for it seven times, I think, against Texas Tech. I think he was being a little reckless early. You know, their defense was good. Agreed.
Starting point is 01:24:15 You could win this game, Dan, like nine to three. What are you doing? Once you go up two possessions in that game, it was over. Yeah, I disagree with them. That's his nature, though. And, like, that's kind of his identity system, similar to Dan Campbell. So you know,
Starting point is 01:24:28 but I think that works in his favor here when you're an underdog. Yeah. So that's going, there's going to be a couple swing plays there on fourth downs. That could end up deciding this game. I like Indiana the win,
Starting point is 01:24:41 but I wouldn't be completely shocked of Oregon one. I think both, both are going to be good games. Indiana wins. They'd obviously be favored against Old Miss. Seven, seven and a half of her Ole Miss. What's the line against Miami?
Starting point is 01:24:53 I would say, probably I'm going to say three and a half the thing would be is like Miami and Indiana kind of similar like you said Indiana dominates the line of scrimmage and I didn't realize the kid that broke
Starting point is 01:25:11 his leg high five in the fan was a transfer portal guy from the Mac from Kansas State they had turned him in to like led the league or led the country in TFLs I was like they are finding guys it'd be one thing it's like
Starting point is 01:25:25 when you know You get Quinchon Junkins from Ole Miss. He's been the SEC freshman in the year and finding transfer portals like that. It's another thing to find Chambliss from Ferris State or a dude from Ken State. Like, that's high-level transfer portal personnel work. That's badass.
Starting point is 01:25:41 I respect Indiana because they're transferred. Even Mendoza and I get his brothers on the team. It's not like he was coming from USC. He's coming from Cal. Did they even have it? They go to bowl game the previous year? I don't think they did. No.
Starting point is 01:25:53 No. Sigetti is like famous for this. like grinds Tate and finds these gems. The 40, your 49ers, the year before, they plucked C.J. West from Kent State, who turned into a stud and got drafted. Oh, he's a transfer portal guy, too. God. Yeah, from Kent State. And, yeah, this, they're, they might, they didn't miss them last week, but, like, their blitz,
Starting point is 01:26:16 their blitz packages and pressure packages are amazing. They had, or I'm curious to see the Oregon adjustments because they, they could not block Indiana their third down blitz packages. and Indiana some of the best in the country. Now, obviously, Oregon's going to have a counter to that, but you would also expect Indiana to not do some of the same thing. So I can't wait for that chess match. But yeah, Signetti finds just incredible gems in the portal.
Starting point is 01:26:41 Actually, I think Indiana, like, if Indiana dominates again, they might be, it depends how dominant these teams are, but it might be like four and a half over Miami, seven and a half over Ole Miss. But obviously that could change. I think that's like what it would be today. But if one of these teams looks really good, then that'll change. injuries as well.
Starting point is 01:26:58 Would it be the craziest thing we've ever seen? You know, I don't, you know, I know when Jim Valvano jumped up and down in NC State, like back in the 80s, but I mean, I was born 84. It doesn't feel like we've had. Now, it's a little different. I mean, he's spending a lot of money, right? I mean, he is buying these guys. The transfer portal, you wouldn't even had access to the Kent State guys, right? Because you couldn't transfer.
Starting point is 01:27:21 You'd have to sit out. So it's not an apples to apples comparison. and it's more realistic. Like what he's doing now, you're more capable to do that with the rules. But still, even with the rules, no one in a million years, even last year I thought like,
Starting point is 01:27:38 oh, great year. It's like they'll come back to Earth a little bit. And they are clearly dramatically better. Just in terms of like unfazed by the bright lights. I mean, that game against Bama was like, Jesus, I get Bama's not great, but that was, that looked like a Sabin team would do to a team
Starting point is 01:27:53 that didn't belong to me there. That's what happened to them last year against Notre Dame. It's like, hey, you don't belong to be here. Yeah, I mean, they made Alabama quit in that game. I mean, back to the case, they held out of Alabama in Ohio State with all those receivers of 13 total combined points. I can't think of- The quarterback's really good. And you get the number one, that's the other thing.
Starting point is 01:28:10 They have the number one pick of quarterback on a team that clearly is really good with a bunch of, I texted an NFL buddy. I'm like, how many high-end guys? They don't have too many high-end guys. Like, their left tackle that's the offense. You know, he's, I think a lot of people view him as a future guard, but he's an NFL player, but no one's viewing them like Trent Williams or something, right? So they got a lot of guys like that. You know, Surat, really good college player. He's not going to go, he's not going to be like a
Starting point is 01:28:35 top 10 pick. He's not my league neighbors. Yeah, Camara, Pons. A lot of these guys will get drafted, but they're not like top 10 picks. Yeah, they're just full of guys that are going to go from like pick 100 to 200 beside the quarterback. But if you're well coached, you're tough, they're just, I mean, they're beating teams with technically more talent on the roster than them from a recruiting standpoint. Yeah, they're just out executing everyone and they're grown men. It's for, yeah, I can't think of a parallel
Starting point is 01:29:01 like Sig Setto would be a hell of a movie for a coaching job like this and for this team to come out of nowhere and now be the favorite to win the national title. Indiana, Indiana football. But this Oregon winning would be the least surprising thing as far as like how you look at college football, even though they're an underdog
Starting point is 01:29:19 in the semi. Because the other options are Miami wins it who like no one thought they were going to make to the college football I didn't even make the ACC championship. Ole Miss wins it after Lane Kiffin left with a skeleton staff or Indiana football wins the national title. Like crazy. Like Oregon would be the most normal outcome. If you didn't know much about college football, though,
Starting point is 01:29:39 and you just watched Miami the last couple weeks, you'd be like they feel like an NFL team. Yes. The one thing that could hold them back that I need to see, and he'll need to do more in this game because they're not going to hold Ole Miss to nothing, is Carson back in a big year. game. Like, I mean, he's only thrown for like 220 or he hasn't had to. They just run it and their
Starting point is 01:29:58 defense dominated. But Beck is going to have to not make mistakes in critical games, which he has been thrown. Who's our second best wide receiver beside the true freshman? Daniels, but I mean, he's not great. Like, their passing attack isn't great. They just want to, they want to run it, play defense, and they want to get the ball to Tony as much in many creative ways as possible. But Beck is going to, there's going to be a moment where Beck's going to have
Starting point is 01:30:25 to make some throws. That's, that's my biggest question for Miami. But I think we got, we got two good semifinal schemes with tons of storylines.
Starting point is 01:30:33 Like the Ole Miss is just, it's a crazy situation. Can you imagine of Ole Miss went the national title without Lane? And then Lane never wins a national title again
Starting point is 01:30:40 in his career. Like, that is, I mean, one of the chances, I mean, Lane's no lock to just be in the final four of the next couple years,
Starting point is 01:30:49 right? Far from it. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, Nick? Huge news. We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts.
Starting point is 01:31:10 Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And, well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.
Starting point is 01:31:35 I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you
Starting point is 01:32:07 funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Jared Adano. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet. Help! Somebody!
Starting point is 01:32:34 Please! But there's so much more to me than that. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian. And recently, I've become quite the helper myself. And on my new podcast, Hope from a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives, helping people in need with my sage advice and thoughtful solutions. Spike, I'm a comedian. I'm not qualified to give good advice.
Starting point is 01:32:55 Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant, recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice. One ring is too scary. Cream a chicken suit. Hey, cream. Cream a chicken suit.
Starting point is 01:33:13 This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to Help from a Hypocrite as part of the Mike Cultura Podcast Network available on the I-FartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The story I've told myself about love or relationships can then shape my behavior, and that can lead me to sabotage the possibility of connection.
Starting point is 01:33:38 This Mental Health Awareness Month, tune into the podcast deeply well with Debbie Brown and explore the journey of healing, self-discovery, and returning to yourself. We explore higher consciousness, emotional well-being, and the practices that help you find clarity, peace, and self-mastery in a world that can feel overwhelming. The world is becoming lonelier.
Starting point is 01:34:01 We're not becoming more social and connected. We're becoming more individualized, but we actually meet people in connection. If you've been searching for a soft place to land while doing the work to become whole, this podcast is for you to hear more. Listen to deeply well with Debbie Brown from the Black Effect Podcast Network. on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. How about this? I'll get you out here on this.
Starting point is 01:34:35 Obviously, you know, there's a fluid story, the Washington quarterback, that he's probably headed to LSU and they're going to get sued. It is classic lane. I don't blame him for doing it. There are no rules. But that is, at first I'm like, God, this is a crazy story. He signed this $4 million. And then, of course, it's, yeah, he's going to go to Lane.
Starting point is 01:34:54 I'm like, oh, my God. Yeah, it's messy. I mean, college basketball, that's a whole other story with like NBA guys now playing on college teams. Did you watch the Baylor kid? Yeah. How do you look? He looked okay. I mean, it wasn't, I don't think it's like going to, he's not changing bailouts.
Starting point is 01:35:14 He's not an old brand at his prime at Dune or something. But yeah, like now with lawsuits, like this is just a new world. But what, what ends up, of course, course lane is in the middle of it what ends up and we have like sam levitt who was now um i think he was supposed to come potentially to kentucky but i think he's now going to go to al-em or where lsu um because simpson's going to be nfl but what so what like now they're suing him like say you sue for him to stay but then what's that situation yeah he wanted to go make more money and then you have a quarterback who doesn't who's hate is mad at you and how that's
Starting point is 01:35:59 going to uh what a to to me what you have to do because where you're angry is like even if you were going to leave if we would have known we had some big time money to buy someone sweet and we didn't get to play that game because we just assumed i don't know a week ago we sign the contract you got to be the people that blow this up and you sue it and you make it so ugly that you get to the point where he doesn't get to play for LSU and he's screwed. And like that to me is now the mindset because like you said, what are you going to do, sue him. So he comes back. Like he's already kind of moved on.
Starting point is 01:36:36 You know, it's an ugly, but I think you sue and I think a lot of people are kind of going to root for this to blow this situation up because I, if you were on. There needs to be. Well, if we signed a four million dollar contract with the volume or action network and then like a week later, we're just like, yeah, we're doing this. other thing is like you get sued that's how the real world works there's once you get to a certain number in life with business like people come after you and you know in college like well they're just kids like those days feel a little over and this feels as ruthless like this guy just signed the contract a week let he's like I'm coming back and then he just clearly lame they offered them more who knows whatever the option was yeah I think it's like two million more is the rumor so
Starting point is 01:37:18 I think that that that that that can't that that that's not the way that you You know, it's one thing like a guy commits in the NFL during that tampering period, but he hasn't signed anything. And remember Emmanuel Sanders, like, backed out. Yeah. But no one signs their contract. And then a week later, like, oh, I sign with the Chiefs, but now I'm going to go play for the Cowboy.
Starting point is 01:37:35 That's not the way it works. Because that's the way the real world works. When you sign the contract, and I think this is the first time where it's like, I could see this thing. This is where the ending kind of comes from the contract standpoint. Yeah, I mean, you've got these guys back, have, I think this time's a little uncomfortable. It's like, you sign the contract. And you sign the contract. If you want to think, well, he's only paying him
Starting point is 01:37:55 $100,000. This is $4 million, right? Yeah, and as you said, it kept them out of the quarterback game. Is he that good? He has potential. I mean, you looked at, because I mean, he can run, he can throw, but like all the big games this year. Isn't he kind of shorter?
Starting point is 01:38:12 Yeah, his size is definitely the problem. And like, in all the, whenever he had to step up against the better defenses, it wasn't pretty. But you might be right, that this might just be needed and a necessary thing to fix and they're eventually
Starting point is 01:38:29 it seems like inevitably there's just going to have to be some kind of scapegoat in a lawsuit that ends up getting screwed and and this might end up being like good for the long term of the sport
Starting point is 01:38:45 because it's just like the Wild West right now. There's and there needs to be oversight and more structure and there's just no rules. It's completely lawless. And the calendar needs to change. Look at all these teams in the playoffs that had coaches that already took jobs elsewhere. You now have a team in the college football semis without a head coach who went to a rival.
Starting point is 01:39:06 And now some of their staff is not staying on. I mean, it's a disaster. You can't have a guy. I have no problem. Let's say you go to the draft college or the NFL. And I get drafted like in the sixth round, even in the college football. And it was like, I want to go back to school. I never played in the NFL.
Starting point is 01:39:24 I would be, okay, I kind of get that screwed up. The kid that was drafted 31st. If he wanted to immediately come back, but you can't just go pro for several years and then come back. Yeah, that's great. He played Wembenyama in the summer league. There's like, there are pictures of him guarding. It's like, no, that's, like, that's where I do agree with the coach. He's like, what are we doing?
Starting point is 01:39:43 How did they even know to contact this human being? It's insane. We're in the, we're in the wild west in college athletics. So, yeah, it's going to take some kind of big moment to the lawsuit to fix it. So I think you might be right. Okay, Stucky, well, enjoy the week and enjoy the baby and enjoy life. I will talk to you. We'll figure out of time to talk next week, not quite sure on my schedule.
Starting point is 01:40:06 Who knows? We had a contraction last night. I was like, oh, my God, better buckle up. This could have happened soon, you know. Well, good luck, but it happens sooner, brother. And I will enjoy the football as well. Maybe your last free weekend. And I'll talk to you next week.
Starting point is 01:40:19 See you. Cheers. Hey guys, it's us The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it.
Starting point is 01:40:40 We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends.
Starting point is 01:41:03 Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam?
Starting point is 01:41:28 It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, Point Game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was partying. You just understood. That's how personal it got.
Starting point is 01:41:44 Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis come in to him, he's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your This week on Crimless, Rory and I welcome a very special guest. When I did podcasts, I wear my sleep masks.
Starting point is 01:42:04 I like where this is going. So if you guys will indulge me. That's right, the incredibly talented and hilarious Will Ferrell on an episode dedicated to crimes committed by people named Will Ferrell. You're good for 300 crimes? Yeah. We got two. I'm ready to go right up to present day. Listen to Crimless on the IHeart Radio.
Starting point is 01:42:26 app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.