The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 & Out - NFL Week 18 Best Bets: Vikings-Lions, Bengals-Steelers, Chiefs-Broncos, Super Bowl futures

Episode Date: January 4, 2025

John is joined by ⁠The Action Network sports betting expert, Stuckey, to share their best bets for the Week 18 slate of games, including Super Bowl futures, Chiefs-Broncos, Bengals-Steelers, Vikings-Lions, Seahawks-Rams, and Saints-Bucs. 0:20 - Playoff picture4:55 - Super Bowl future bets11:12 - Chiefs at Broncos17:45 - Bengals at Steelers20:39 - Vikings at Lions28:59 - Seahawks at Rams32:13 - Saints at Bucs36:28 - Chargers at Raiders Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest. Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Tired and sick.

Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you. you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

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telling you exactly what happened. That's where SportsSlice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slicelife 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.

Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all?

You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor? It signals to the world that you're not to be played with.

And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to. Listen to learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. The volume. What is going on, everybody? How are we doing? Hopefully everyone's having a good New Year's, having a good week. We're all thrown off. This two-week stretch, especially with Christmas, Christmas Eve, New Year's Eve, New Year's,

falling in the middle of the week back-to-back weeks can really throw you off. And I definitely fall under that category. I got some sickness. I don't know what it is. I just can't shake it. I'm going to go try to sit in the sauna and steam room.

See if that will cure me because it's been going on like five days now. It sucks. But I'm thrown off. So instead of doing a mail bag on Saturday, I talked to Stucky about 20. hours ago. And we got a big NFL weekend, at least a couple big games.

A lot of other games that are meaningless. It's impossible to know who's going to play. So we tried to dive in any trends, you know, to get our gamble on. We get a little juice flowing into the start of the new year. I do think there are some interesting, you know, future bets right now when you look at teams like, you know, from a value standpoint, it's hard to bet against the Chiefs. But from a value standpoint, the winner of the Ravens-Bills game, you can get both those to it close to 7 to 1. So we'll talk a little bit about that as well. Obviously, the playoffs coming up next week with the NFL, the college football semifinals.

We have coaches getting fired. I mean, it's going to be a crazy time in terms of the football world. So we got to strap in, buckle up, pedal to the metal here. And yeah, so we will talk to Stucky today. that will be it. No middle cuff mail bag. I will bang out a few next week for sure. I had Jackson come on after the Notre Dame game. He's a big Notre Dame guy. So we did about an hour of college football yesterday if you missed it so you can go check that out. Make sure you subscribe to three and out. If you listen on Collins feed,

make sure you subscribe to the three and out feed. YouTube channel has all of our content as well. And yeah, let's dive into Stucky. It's bittersweet because when you look at your Draft King's app, all lines here are presented by friends at draft kings. And you realize that it's week 18 and college football is coming to a screeching end. Football, you can see the end, the light at the end of the tunnel where there just is no football for a long period of time. And that makes me sad. So I stopped complaining if there was a crappy game on a Thursday night. If there was a crappy Monday night game and I just said it's football, I was going to enjoy it. But then I look at the lines this weekend, I think one of my favorite

lines of the weekend of the year is my guy Stucky's squad, the Ravens. I saw this morning they are laying 18 points against the fighting Cleveland Browns, who I know they were having a season from hell, but when you look at the record and it says, what are they, three and 13, they are really, really shitty. I mean, for a team just last year that won 11 games was Defansky, man, what a season. from hell from the Browns. Yeah, it's, I think that their, their point, their team total is 11 and a half, I think. I think that's what it's at, which is like as low as you'll ever see in, uh, in the NFL.

It's, yeah, it is, it is bittersweet. There's only eight college, we're recording this on a Thursday. There's only eight college football games left. And, yeah, we're heading into the final. regular season week in the NFL, but I am actually looking, I'm looking forward to the NFL playoffs. Like this regular season,

it's been, it's been pretty bizarre. I mean, favorites have dominated. It's been one of the most successful favorite years of all time. And a lot of that is like, in the NFL, we usually have extreme parity,

but that's just not been the case this year. There's a chance we have nine teams finish with four or fewer wins I believe we've never had more than seven and there's an extra game now. So just that there's been so many bad teams and then a lot of those bad teams have had injuries

and some of the quarterback situations on some of these bad teams has just made the regular season not as exciting as it usually is. But what I think that that will lead to was a much more exciting playoffs. I mean, you're going to have either a Lions or Vikings team that is currently 14 and 2. Both of them are 14. The loser is the 5 seed, which is pretty insane. But yeah, I think that. I don't think we'll ever see a 14 win 5 seed again.

Or very unlikely. That's hard to get. Yeah, it's insane. So I think that we're, it's going to be a really, really good NFL playoffs. Just, I mean, in the AFC, can their Ravens or Bills get over the hump against the Chiefs, who seem to be putting it together at the right time? And then the NFC, it's pretty wide open. Can Detroit just get through the NFC? I mean, they need to get the Lions game is huge against the Vikings, because with their defensive injuries, I mean, over the past three weeks,

they've been the worst defense in the NFL. I mean, they give up since all these injuries hit. They go 48 to Buffalo. Even the Bears put up like 400 yards. They were moving the ball. And then last week, the Niners, they, they were whatever they wanted on offense. And it wasn't like that a complete, their offensive line was a shell of itself. The San Francisco 49 has had a 60% success rate for the game.

Only five other teams have done that in a game this year. They just missed field goals, of course, as they always do. and turned it over a couple times. But the lines, can they, that's why they need to get home field. Maybe you get a bit healthier. You get to play at home, but they're going to have the win in shootouts. But you have, you know, you also have the Packers, the Vikings, the Eagles. So the NFC, I think is really exciting and pretty deep this year.

You have a Rams team that's going to be dangerous as well and can beat anybody on any given Sunday. So, yeah, I'm looking forward to the playoffs. And I think that that lack of parity is going to make for a more exciting. post seasons. You do have a lot of really good teams this year. Well, before we dive in, I wrote down some big picture things I want to get into is I think when you speak of the shittiness at the bottom of the NFL, on

Monday night, you know, most people in my live are 49er people and everyone's like, should we be losing this game? When it looked like the 49ers were going to win? I was like, they were having the season from hell, and they're currently drafting 11. So whether you win or lose this game, drafting 11 or drafting

14th, if they were drafting like 4th, yeah, you should brute for them to lose. but they could lose out, and they're still not going to draft in the top 10. So whether you win a game or lose a game, it's not, this isn't the Giants, Raiders, Patriot situation. They can't, they're not playing in that sandbox. It's pretty insane. The Niners are not going to draft in the top 10, and that includes if they lose this week to Arizona. And they go 6 and 11.

So that just shows you how crappy. And the Niners really don't have that much in common with those teams. So it's, it feels right. but it's crazy how bad the bottom seven or eight have truly been most of the season with the giants, the Titans, the Raiders, the Patriots, I mean, both of them

had moments in a given game, but over the course of like two months stretches, I mean, they are just putrid football teams. So I hear you there. And when I think big picture, I look today, I look to some futures. Right now, the chiefs, rightfully so.

They flipped a switch. Holy shit, they look good again. even, you know, my fiance keeps looking at me. She's like, are they really going to win it again? She asked me that yesterday because there were some, you know, ad about the NFL playoffs or she was looking at some on Instagram. Like, you know, I wouldn't have said yes a month ago,

but don't be surprised if it happens again. But I do think there's some value. Assuming Baltimore wins, I mean, they're almost a 20-point favorite. You can get Baltimore Buffalo at plus 650. So if you took $1,000 and put $500 each or put $5,000 and spread it up and put $2,500 each and basically just bet those two to win the Super Bowl, right? Because you know they're more than likely going to play in the second round. And I do think they would have a very good chance to win. You know, if you're just playing the odds, like are the Chiefs going to go back to the Super Bowl again would be historic, let alone win it?

Eventually, like I remember Brady Belichick losing to Rex Ryan. I remember Brady and Belichick losing to Denver. Now granted, some of these games, that Rex Ryan game, I think, was at home, the Denver game, when Gronk's ankle was messed up, was on the road. So every situation is different. Kansas is going to host. But I wonder if there's some value there. And basically, but you got to bet them both because you don't know exactly who's going to win that second game.

Right. But that's, you basically just take the two of them and you bet them to win the Super Bowl. Because whoever wins that game, I think you're going to be feeling pretty good. has a good chance against the Chiefs. And this year, unlike last year, everyone's going to be betting the Chiefs, right, in that situation. Yeah, yeah.

The only thing that... What do you think about that logic? I don't hate it. I mean, the one... The potential rents that could get thrown into it is that the Bengals make the playoffs, but, and then, you know, the Bengals play... The Bengals can beat anybody.

They'll probably find a way to lose at the end. but they would play the bills if they get in in that first game. And I see some people, like I've seen on social media people are like, oh, the chiefs are sitting their starters because they don't want the Bengals in, which is Asin, because the Bengals would play the Bengals. And you would rather, if you're the Chiefs, you'd rather play the Bengals than their defense than the Bills. So I think you would want the Bengals in to potentially knock out the Bills.

So, yeah, I mean, it's, I am anti-chiefs for this one reason. reason. Well, I'm a Ravens fan, one. But if they go back to the Super Bowl, when, you know, I got to, I talk about the Super Bowl more than any game. Do this show, my podcast, my shows. You know, and that's, it's two weeks. And every year, it's what the Chiefs. And then we get two more weeks of just the, right, the Chiefs are going to win the Super Bowl. I mean, what do you want me to say? So just from a freshness, newness perspective, I, I am rooting for the Chiefs not to get there. but yeah it seems like they're slowly they just they peek at the right time they they just know how to figure it out down the stretch and i think like that offense i mean tuning at left tackle has made a difference they got hollywood brown back which makes their offense a bit more dynamic i do still think that there's questions in the secondary which i which could ultimately end up cost them this year because last year their secondary was rock solid. But against Lamar or Josh Allen, that could end up being the difference. And I do think that there's a couple of things working in the

bills. The bills and Ravens, I think also are starting to peak as well, which makes the IFC just that much more fascinating because the bills are getting healthier just across the board. They dealt with some defensive injuries, some key defensive injuries down the stretch. And the Ravens' past defense over the past. six weeks, top three in the NFL, and this is the bottom five unit earlier in the year. They made some schematic changes and they moved some guys around, put Hamilton back at safety, put Adairus Washington at safety instead of Marcus Williams, kept Humphrey in the slot, and the results have been very, very good.

So their past defense, which is their biggest weakness, is starting to trend up. So all three of those teams are trending up. but it's the chiefs you got you have to get you have to get up on them like you you just can't have it be you can't have it be a one possession game as the bills know all too well even if there's 13 seconds left because you know that the chiefs are just going to find a way if they need to have a final drive um especially at home that they're going to win that close game but um yeah if there if there was a year it's the bills or ravens are very very good this year. But fortunately for the Chiefs, yeah, they're going to have to play each other.

Well, let's start with the Chiefs because Carson Wentz is getting zero respect. A 10 and a half point dog. Now, it's not just Carson Wentz, right? I mean, I would guess Travis Kelsey will not have pads on. Chris Jones will not have pads on. I mean, he's been banged up. I could see, you know, McDuffie, Carlowski, who knows, right? I mean, it's not like it's going to be, Xavier Worthy might have pads on. but play very limited snaps. This is must win for Denver, who played in one of the most bad shit games I think we'll ever see.

I'm so thrown off on my days right now, but whenever they played the Bengals like a week ago, five days ago, yesterday, I don't know when. That game was bananas. But, like, I do think they're pretty good. And defensively, like, the Bengals are a tough matchup, but Carson Wentz, sometimes in this spot when you get a guy like that

there's a pretty big game for Carson Wentz and like I think Andy like not necessarily trying to win or lose the game but he will take a lot of pride in like Carson Wentz they will have a lot of effort like these four days leading it up to this game now this is a kitchen seat game for Denver be a huge accomplishment to make the playoffs

right with a rookie quarterback and everyone counted them out when the season started myself included and they've turns out their day defense was actually pretty good under Bance Joseph. Benito, I didn't even know that much about this guy, and he's fucking dominated, but, and really just their pass rush in general, like, I don't think anyone would have picked them to lead the league in Sacks right in August, but this is kind of fascinating game.

I just, is this just a lock? Denver just beats him, like, 30 to 10, or is this thing, you know, I, I think I might take the Carson, fighting Carson Wentz's with Andy Reed plus 10 and a half. I would lean that way. I might take it. How's the number that big? How's it that big? Yeah, there's a lot of uncertainty.

I mean, there's some rumors that the Chiefs might even play like some Chris Oludukin, their third string quarterback, which would make it a little dicey. I mean, the Chiefs offensive line still does have some issues. So how much of those does Mahomes mask would be my concern against a team that, you know, is going to send the Blitz, can get pressure. but you don't want your backup quarterback to get injured either going into the playoffs yeah uh historically in week 18 actually the for that matter but the final two weeks of the regular season if you bet the teams this doesn't this specific game doesn't fit this mold exactly but if you bet the teams that

are eliminated playing for nothing against the teams that have to win you have done very well it's It's like 61, 62% against the spread. Why? Well, a lot of times you're paying a premium to back the team that needs to win. And the other team, usually, they're still professionals. They're still going to try, and they can play looser in a way. And then the team that needs to win plays tighter. They might be a little bit too conservative, like too close to the vest.

So there's a lot of things that work in the favor of these. underdogs that are eliminated don't need to win. Like the Jets, for example, against the dolphins, they fit that. The Saints, I'm not sure. Maybe Derek Carr plays this weekend. The Saints, like getting two touchdowns against the Bucks fit that mold. And then here, yeah, the cheese can come in here. They can play loose, nothing to lose.

And, you know, the Broncos bow necks still a rookie quarterback. A lot of pressure on him. It just comes down to, like, how many guys do the cheese? chiefs actually sit, but we've seen the chiefs in this situation, this exact situation, four times before. Back in 2013, Chase Daniel started, Chiefs rested all their starters. They were plus 14 and a half against the chargers who needed to win to get into the playoffs. I assume that was yeah, that was Rivers. The Chiefs were up 10 late. They blew a 10 point lead. They missed a fuel goal to win it. There was actually a penalty on the Chargers that the NFL had come out after the game and say they messed up and that should have been called.

Chargers ended up winning in overtime. Chiefs covered. 2017, they were plus three at Denver and they won. It was actually Mahomes' first start when they sat Alex Smith. 2020, Chad Henney was plus seven versus Herbert at the Chargers. That was a meaningless game. They did get blown out in that game, 38, 21. And then last year, Blaine Gabbard started plus three and a half at the Chargers, who, in fairness, were starting East and Stick.

And the Chiefs ended up winning 1312. So they've covered three of four games all on the Rodin Division in this spot. And they should have won three of the four. So it wouldn't shock me if they were just in this game in the fourth quarter. I just don't know to what extent are they going to rest their starters. Like how many? Are they going to actually play some of their third string quarterback? But the chiefs are a very professional team, and they've been in the spot before.

So I think that they'll be prepared, and they'll put up a fight here. So, yeah, I think it's Chiefs or Nothing at 10.5. What, if you remember the Mahomes game where he started when he was the backup for Alex Smith, they knew they were going to the playoffs. and I think they all merge knew they were playing I think they ended up playing the Titans and Andy gave like Doug Peterson maybe Doug was already gone

but Nagy and like his offensive assistant said you attack the game plan you start attacking the playoff opponents all be all attack Mahomes and get ready for this game they split it up they don't really even need to do that because they've already they just played the Texans

right they didn't play the chargers that long ago and they're comfortable playing them so it's like they don't need to get that far ahead. And they got the buy week. So it's like they could just attack this week kind of like a normal week. I just think that's a lot of points in a situation where he knows their personnel pretty well.

This is a game I got circled. Wouldn't shock me if I'm not saying Denver's going to lose, but I can just see that thing being weird. And same thing, you know, the Steelers got some fucking issues. I mean, they are a completely different team. And we've talked about it last week, you know, with their defensive injuries, the coverage ability is just no longer there. They're just not the same team. And obviously Cincinnati

just, I mean, their ability on offense is second to none throwing the ball. I mean, Burrell's playing out of his mind. I feel like this is an easy one. You just pick Cincinnati, but this also feels kind of classic Pittsburgh. I mean, shit, they played on Christmas,

so they've had a lot of extra rest. Everyone's been shitting on them. And rightfully so, but I mean, still, I mean, they are just everyone's picking them, beat one and done in the playoffs, just another Mike Tomlin, season's kind of worthless, got a hot start, meant nothing. I wonder if this game's going to be a little weirder than everyone just thinks Cincinnati's a lot to win this game. Yeah, I mean, there's been a couple classic Tomlin spots, though, in the past three weeks that just that haven't worked out. This would fit the mold as another one.

Joey Porter will be back. That's big for the Steelers. They've really missed him in coverage. I think a key to this game is, does Amarius Mims playing for the Bengals? True game time decision at right tackle. And obviously be going up against Watt, big drop off for the Bengals tackles if their starters are not in there. It could be trouble for Burrow, who's, I mean, he's just playing amazing regardless right now. But that could lead to like a few more, just like a few drive killers, sacks,

drive killing sacks, which might end up making the difference. Tough game for me to bet because Bengals games right now, you know that Barrow is just, I mean, he's playing at an MVP level. They're going to put up points. They're very difficult to stop. Now, the right tackle could make that a little murkier, the right tackle situation. And you also know, their defense isn't very good. So the other team is going to be right there with them.

I mean, go back to that, the, the Steelers, Bengals first meeting, what about a month ago, the Steelers did whatever they wanted on offense in that game. So to me, this just feels like who's going to have the ball last? I mean, that's what Bengals games are right now, because it's hard to stop them, and it's hard not to score on them. So, yeah, this feels like, I don't mind the Steelers. It's like a teaser piece because this feels like last team with the ball. wins. But Mims at right tackle, that's who I'm watching, because if he doesn't play, that just could ruin maybe one or two drives for the Bengals. And that could be the difference because it's

very difficult to rely on their defense right now and count on them to get any stops. It's the most wonderful time of year for getting in on all the hoops, football, and hockey action at the Draft King's Sportsbook. It's the season of giving. And we're being gifted college football and basketball. Pro football and basketball. And pro hockey too, almost 24-7. So many games every day, so many opportunities to blaze your first bet. Try betting on something simple, like picking a team to win. Go to Drafking Sportsbook app and place your bet. And here's a gift for all new customers. Bet five bucks to get 150 in bonus bets if your bet wins. Download the Draft King Sportsbook app and use the code John. That's code J-O-H-N for new customers to get 150 in bonus bets if your first bet wins.

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and expires 168 hours after issuance. One single use boost per customer that only applies to winnings. See sportsbook.draftkings.com slash promos for additional terms and responsible gaming resources. Hey, it's us, the Jonas brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name?

Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special.

So how did we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Oh, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this.

We were talking about a thing. a bit for the podcast where people could call in and say, Hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends.

Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman helped make you funny. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and headwriter, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. Breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves.

Their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people. people who live them. Listen to SportsSlice on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slices Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.

Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Jacob Kingston grew up in an isolated polygamous sect. We were God's chosen kingdom on earth. He felt destined for greatness.

So when a swaggering Armenian businessman catapults Jacob into an extraordinary world, he doesn't look back. Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, meeting the president of Turkey. I'm Michelle McPhee, and this is one of the most shocking criminal conspiracies I've ever come across. When Jacob met Levant this plant to a billion dollar fraud. But with two kings from entirely different worlds, just how long can their empire survive? The largest tax investigation in American history. You need to tell me what you know. Is somebody coming after me? Jacob told Levan, you're ruining my life.

Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Okay, let's go, I mean, record-wise, a pretty historic matchup game of the year. The Detroit Lions hosting the Minnesota Vikings. My takeaway halfway through that game was on Monday night was Detroit has no chance in the playoffs with this level of defense. and honestly at that point at about half time, I don't see how they can beat Minnesota when they just can't stop anybody. In the second half, I mean,

your defense can be awful if your offense is dominant, which there is, and then you just get some turnovers, which is obviously a little random. You either need the quarterback to throw you the ball like Purdy did or create a fumble.

And I do think that they have a chance once the game ended and you realize, okay, I see their path. offense basically has to score or just be elite. You're not going to score in every drive like you did against the Niners against Minnesota. I think it's fair to say, but you still should be able to put up, I would say, 25 to 30 points, and then just create a turnover, whether that's Sam Darnold throwing you the ball, forcing a fumble somehow.

It's like that is their path because they're just not going to get stops consistently. They're just not even close to good enough right now. It's not someone's fault. It's not a, I can't blame the defense of coordinator or, players suck. I mean, they just got a million injuries. Now, they might get guys back and maybe by, you know, if they can win this game. But I do see the path of winning this game in, to me, it parallels that Niner game. Score a lot of points, create some turnovers.

Because if they're not creating turnovers, I see zero chance. If Sam Donald is going to play like the guy, we have seen. Like, unless he just has one of his awful games, which he hasn't had in a while, I think it's going to be tough. but that lion's offense, sometimes they score too fast. I mean, they're just so explosive, and then you just put your defense back on the field instead of just slow, and that's where probably Montgomery would help a little bit. Just like seven-yard runs instead of Gibbs gets in the open field.

It's like, God, he just gained 40 yards. You know, you're like, holy shit. Like, don't throw the ball to James and Williams. He might go for like 50. You just need like a 15-yard chunk play. But I think a lot of people are going to take Minnesota, Minnesota plus two and a half. I don't know if I could take Detroit laying the points,

but I do see the scenario where Detroit wins this game. They almost just have to be perfect. And that's kind of sad because obviously Minnesota's had a storybook season, but I'd say the same thing for Detroit. And you could argue it's even more impressive, given the amount of injuries they've had over the last two months, to even be in this situation. I mean, how many, this is a pretty big moment,

this last month plus for Campbell, of like, it could have easily turned into an 11. win season or 12 win season. And no one would have blamed anybody. But it didn't. And now they're fucking here. And even the game against the Niners. That was, I'm sure you've seen all these stories coming out, the Colts, like how

embarrassing all that stuff is. Even the Niners had a shitty season. You watch Fred Warner's injured playing his ass off, George Kittle, Debo. Same with the Lions. Both teams approach that game like this is the NFC championship game, 2.0. It's like, it's just kind of refreshing. It's like, no shit the Lions are good. Like, that's how they approach.

That's how the Chiefs approach shit. Like good teams approach things a certain way, win or lose. And I actually earned a lot of respect in that game on Monday night, a game that they did not need, right? Well, they could have lost it and they still would have been in the same situation. Yeah, the only time it would have mattered is if this game ended in a tie, then that game will ultimately matter. But Dan Campbell, can you ever see Dan Campbell tying a game?

I don't think that's possible. I wonder, too, playing the Niners who knocked them out last year. I know they were having a bad season. Would he have done the same if they were, like, at the Giants? Maybe it would have been easier, I don't know. Yeah, I mean, I definitely assumed that they were going to play everybody. But it was a little, I was a little more on the fence of what they should do. Just because the injuries have been so catastrophic on the defensive end, it was like, man, you really can't afford.

Now, luckily, they got through the game unscathed. but you cannot afford any more injuries on that defense because yeah they're not getting any stops unless they're getting turnovers or the other team's missing fuel goals I will say I mean this offense can score against anybody but they've really dominated this head-to-head matchup with flores golf in particular over the past two years so ben Johnson has gotten the best of flores they have they just have answers to the blitz and some of the things that Flores use, a really interesting chess match there. I'm curious to see if, like, Flores changes things up because golf has really good numbers

against the Vikings. Why do you think that is? Like, the quick game, he gets rid of the ball quick. They got a lot of guys that sit in zone. And a really good offensive line. And at the end of the day, the Vikings, like, a lot of what they do, like, they have a good front. They're good against the run.

And they're going to show you exotic looks. bring exotic blitzes, usually going to have a good game plan under Flores. But their secondary isn't overly talented. So, like, they're beatable if you can, you know, protect and get rid of the ball quick and you have a good scheme. And that's what the lines, the lines check all of those boxes. So, I mean, if you look back at the game earlier this season, Gough, I mean, it was the lines 1-31-29.

Golf was 22 of 25 for 280, two touchdowns, no interceptions. And that's basically what his numbers, the two meetings last year. So I'm curious to watch that chess match. What does Flores, does he try to do anything differently here? It's a tough game to bet. I mean, the total is so high for a divisional game with a lot on the line. It got up to, I think, 58. You couldn't pay me to bet the under in this game.

Now it's super high. It's down to like 56 and a half. Most of these totals that are this high do go under in the NFL because you just need a lot to go right to go over. You know, you just have a couple long drives that end in field goals or, you know, Donald throws a red zone pick. It's hard to get into the 60s in the NFL. But, I mean, from what I've seen from this line's offense,

in particular against the Vikings too. And then the way that this line's defense is trending. who's getting stops here. Now, from a side perspective, what determines this? I mean, you hit the nail on the head. Does Donald, he's going to put the ball in harm's way a couple times a game, just what he's going to do. He's also going to make some really good throws, but can the lions turn them over?

Because getting one stop via turnover in this game is massive. And then the other thing is, you know Campbell, especially. now. Campbell with his defense, he knows that his defense is not going to get many stops. He was already uber aggressive on fourth downs. Why, and you have an elite offense, why not be even more aggressive, which I expect we saw that last week. So do the Lions on, it's fourth and five at the 18, at the Vikings 18, do they get that and score a touchdown or do they turn over on downs then probably not get a stop like that's those are there's probably going to be like two to three plays that determine this the side and who wins the game and who wins the division

ultimately who gets the number one seed and a buy and it'll probably be maybe a couple fourth downs for the lines do they get them so that and that's where the chess match comes in what does johnson have called what does flores uh do in that situation and then does the two or three balls that donnell puts in harm's way the the lines come down with one of them or two if so they probably win. So I think the line's about right. Really entertaining game and a hell of a way to cap off the regular season. But not sure I'll actually have a wager on it.

Because it's just a couple fourth downs, a couple darnal balls, probably determine who gets the one seed in the NFC pretty wild. Are the Rams locked into three? No. They're not. Why are they punning on this week? Like, because if you're, if you're Tampa, you'd want to play, you'd want Detroit to lose this game, I think, right? Just because their defense's so bad.

Like, you'd, is that who you already beat them? I know that's a weird game, but wouldn't you rather, wouldn't those two teams rather play Detroit, given where they're at right now defensively than Minnesota? Yeah. I mean, the Rams beat the Vikings. There was a weird spot, like they were on a short week on the road. Yeah, so the Rams can. improve their seating.

But historically, you can go back to 2016, I believe. And even last year, McVeigh doesn't care about seating. So I bet the Seahawks early in the week, assuming that McVeigh would bench his starters. Because in the past, even with a chance to improve his seating, he chooses rest in the final week. Let's not risk injury and get ready for our first opponent over improving your seating. And, you know, so he just, that's his philosophy.

Every coach is different. You know, you can just say like, hey, we're going to have to beat these teams eventually. I just want to make sure that, you know, and they're a very star-driven team. And the reason I like the Seahawks this week is that, like, they're going to start Jimmy J's professional, you know, professional backup. up, but they're going to bench other guys. And the Rams, if there's one thing the Rams don't have relative to other teams in the league, it's depth. They're not a deep team. A lot of that is because of their draft situation and roster situation.

Very top-heavy team. You see that in the preseason, like the Rams in the preseason that can get ugly. So, yeah, the Stalks, I think, I trust McDonald to have them focused. Gino has, like, he can get, like, $4 million in incentives this week. So I think the Seahawks will show up and the Rams are basically booting this game. They did it last year too, but the 49ers also booted it. They were both resting starters and they ended up winning. But in 2016, they ended up getting blown out and they didn't improve their seating when they could have.

So it was the same exact situation. They clinched the division the week before. Could have been the three or the four. Didn't care. So, yeah, but if they lose, you know, you punt this game. then you're getting your path is, and this is why some Rams fans are upset, your path is going to be the loser of Detroit, Minnesota,

and then the winner on the road. So, you know, the two teams that are 14 and 2 right now, that's going to be your path if you lose this game. But that's McVeigh's philosophy, he's consistent in it, and he just values health over anything else. So, yeah, definitely an interesting one, but the Seals have taken a ton of money. They're out to like a six, six and a half point favorite. So of the two teams that really just need to win to control their own destiny to get in Denver and Tampa,

who would you red flag? You mentioned the Rizzi getting almost two touchdowns. Tampa's really kind of looks like they're firing on all cylinders, get a little life after that devastating L by the Atlanta Falcons. I'd be a little stunned of Tampa were to lose this week. I mean, obviously, I mean, they were two touchdown favorite, but, I mean, the Saints. I took some Saints plus 14.

Now, they are bad. I mean, I think the line is inflated. Like, you're paying a premium on the bucks to win because, you know, they need to win. And the Saints are bad. But, I mean, the Saints have been, the Saints were getting 14 in Green Bay with Rattler and their whole team hurt. So, like, I think Green Bay is a little better than Tampa.

But, and this is a divisional. game homefield isn't you know it's not it's not 20 degrees in green bay homefield is much less here especially just in a divisional game in general where where it could get interesting for i didn't even look at news today for the bucks i mean because the bucks i shouldn't say they're not it's all winfield didn't practice again yeah but there's a chance i mean like um i haven't checked updated news today but there's a chance that camara he wants to play there's a chance that Alave he said he wants to play

and then the craziest one is if Carr plays so there was a chance that he potentially could have played last week like he was practicing but they said like he wasn't comfortable enough in the pocket so

there's an outside chance that Carr suits up And that, if that was the case, you know, if you have, your offense looks a lot healthier, the Saints have a puncher's chance. I mean, they're a loss with Rattler at quarterback or if it's, if it's a tainer. So, yeah, I think the latest dudes I saw is he's going to try to do like a simulated game. And there's an outside chance he plays. That's the only way that I could see the Bucks losing. it would be super interesting but I know that the Saints

are, they've come out and said that they want to play for their community and due to the, after the tragedy that to happen. And it's a divisional game and your rival that put up 50 on you in New Orleans earlier this year. You can

end their season. The Saints will show up now. Do they have enough talent? I'm not sure. But there's an outside chance that you get Carr, Camara, and a couple other players healthier. And if that was the case, yeah, you're going to want to have 14 points in your pocket,

which isn't a lot to cover, even if it is Rattler and a really banged-up bad Saints team. So, and I, in week 18, you know, in previous years, back in the day, it was week 17. But in the final week of the NFL Regal season, there's usually one crazy thing. that happens of a team that you just expect, assume

is going to win, that needs to win, and doesn't. A lot of times it was like the cult, the cults would always lose to the jags. Cults would always lose to the jags. But there's been countless examples. I mean, like, Vikings, Cardinals, I remember way back in the day. I think that was like on the last play of the game. But there is, I remember

the Ravens played the Bengals at home in the final week of the regular season needed to win and they lost on like the final play oh that was a devastating loss and it was just assumed that they were going to win that game like weird things happen in the final week so would i be surprised if the saints or the chiefs were tied in the fourth quarter no about chargers chargers chargers raiders does that fall under your theory of a team that has something to play for against a team with nothing yeah i mean the charters are already in so yeah Here's the thing with a charge.

But they win, they get the 5C and get to play the Texans where would they be favored in that game? Maybe the way that the Texans are going. The Texans are a rare team that they're locked in. Game doesn't matter. But they said they're going to play their starters, but they said they'll see how the game goes. So I have no idea what to expect in that game.

So I don't know if that means like half, but they need to find their offense without Dell. So I don't know in that game. The Chargers, though, if you want to put a small bed in, you know, on the Raiders game, the Raiders' charges game is tied to the Steelers Bengals game. Raiders are hot.

Yeah, Raiders are playing hard. They're playing hard. But if the Steelers, if the Steelers win, then the Chargers are locked in. Gotcha. So, you know, if there's like, if you wanted to put a correlated parlay and you would bet Steelers money line and Raiders money line, because if the Steelers win, that line's going to come down, because then I assume, you know, Herbert sits. And we don't, maybe Harbaal still plays a starters, but I assume that they rest. If the Steelers lose, then, yeah, the Chargers can, would, I'm assuming, play everybody because then you can play the Texans instead of presumably the rate. Ravens, which will put you in a better spot.

But yeah, that Chargers game doesn't really fit the bill because the Charters are already in. But Raiders are playing hard. But that game will just basically come down to the result of Pittsburgh, Cincinnati on Saturday night. Okay, Stucky, we got to enjoy it. Well, we got it, man. So sad, but bittersweet because we still got a little football. And then the football gets really good and then it just goes away. So this week, like you said, something's going to get, something crazy is going to happen.

Something weird's going to happen. I got my eye on Carson Wentz. I got my eye on Russell Wilson. I guess, I mean, Pittsburgh winning wouldn't even be that crazy. But I got my eye on Carson Wentz. I could see Andy. You know, he's just, he's feeling himself right now. Just add another pelt to the wall.

You know, be Carson Wentz, knocks out the Broncos. It's weird. It doesn't feel like the Chiefs hate the Broncos like they do, like the Raiders. But I could see them wanting to just, hey, boys, let's pump the brakes a little on you guys and ruin their season. Yeah, look, it was, they were plus 14 and a half against Philip Rivers who needed to win. They get in their playoffs, and they should have won that game. And I ended up losing it overtime. Just one of those other weird things that happened.

So wouldn't be shocked. Week 18 always tends to get a little weird. So, yeah, enjoy the football while you can. And happy New Year and I'll see you next week, brother. Yeah, I'll talk to you next week. We'll dive into the playoffs and some futures. We'll buckle up. So have a good weekend, bro.

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