The Herd with Colin Cowherd - 3 & Out - Notre Dame Fighting Irish defeat Penn State in THRILLING College Football Playoff battle

Episode Date: January 10, 2025

John is back breaking down Marcus Freeman and Notre Dame knocking off James Franklin’s Penn State squad by a score of 27-24 in the College Football Playoff’s Orange Bowl. John starts off by tipping his cap to Marcus Freeman and the red-hot fighting Irish before GOING OFF on Penn State quarterback Drew Allar for his poor play against a locked-in defensive unit. Next, Middlekauff tees off on James Franklin’s poor halftime adjustments and blasts Penn State for being unable to win the big game despite having more talent on the field than the banged-up Fighting Irish and explains why he wouldn’t blame the Tennessee Titans for taking star pass rusher Abdul Carter No. 1 overall in April’s NFL Draft. Then, John looks ahead to Notre Dame’s potential path to hoisting the National Championship trophy, and explains why this iteration of Notre Dame is more successful than any team under former Irish head coach, and former LSU head coach, Brian Kelly’s tenure. After, John wonders if Penn State’s title window is closing and suggests that it will only get more difficult for the Nittany Lions to win it all as the College Football Playoff grow. Later, John is joined by The Action Networks betting Guru, Stuckey to breakdown the NFL playoff games and give you their best bets for each game. 4:20 - Notre Dame - Penn State reaction 32:44 - Stuckey Interview Follow John on Twitter, Instagram and YouTube for the latest. Check out Gametime - the fastest growing ticketing app in the US, and the official ticketing app of 3 & Out and GoLow -  for tickets to all of your favorite NFL, NBA, NHL, NCAA teams. Concert and comedy show tickets, too. Go to Gametime now to create an account, download the app and use code JOHN for $20 off your first purchase. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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I mean, they basically were winning through the pick and win the game. And they punched their ticket to the national championship. So if you're a Notre Dame fan, congratulations. We will do a reaction right off the top. We'll discuss Notre Dame, Marcus Freeman, Riley Leonard. But to me, Drew Aller, who I had been anointing and saying, God, keep an eye on this guy for the Drew. draft, we can take that take, roll it up, and throw it in the trash, because I apologize for

saying that. Tonight was, I can't. Granted, I had, you know, I took Penn State, but geez, Luis. Abdul Carter, though, looks like I would bet on that guy. Same with Tyler Warren. So, tough night for James Franklin and Penn State, who were up late, but we'll dive into the game. Stucky, we'll join us, too. We'll go over gambling. We'll go game by game coming up for this playoff weekend, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, got a lot of action. I guess Monday now is moved to Arizona.

It doesn't change the matchup or the spread. Other than that, make sure you subscribe to the podcast if you listen on Collins' feed, and also make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel. All of our content is up there as well. So let's dive into some football. Let's start with Marcus Freeman,

because when he first got the job and he lost to Marshall. I remember, too, he was in a game like an absolute dog fight against Cal. I'm like, I don't know if he's going to make it through his first year. And kind of righted the ship. And obviously since then,

the recruiting has gone up another level. Last year, they were pretty solid. And this year, they lose to NIU. And it felt like, is it happening again? And they clearly got Riley Leonard rolling. Defense is fantastic. And now a couple months later, they've beaten Georgia and Penn State and are waiting for the winner of Ohio State in Texas. So just an incredible accomplishment.

I mean, tonight is about two guys. One guy's 38. And if you watched any of the viral clips of the two of them at press conferences, James Franklin's kind of like a podcaster. Never shuts up. Always has takes, which I appreciate. And Marcus Freeman was serious as a heart attack. Trying not to take the bait, but trying not to be an asses.

but he had much more of a vibe like I'm here to kick ass and take names and James his personality is what it is he's a recruiter outgoing personality but can't win this game and we talked about it coming in like once Marcus Freeman beats Georgia it's like that is an enormous win I don't want to say he's playing with house money but they're one of their best defensive linemen's injured their star running back is playing with a huge brace on his knee and and hell, before the Indiana game, he was battling another injury, and they lose multiple offensive linemen in this game. Their quarterback at one point in time, looks like he gets a concussion.

Then they bring in the backup who, as someone told me, they're like, you realize he was the Tony the Tiger MVP last year of their bowl game? I'm like, what do you mean? He's like, yeah, he started the ball game and he was the MVP. So I went back and looked, and he threw for like 250 yards and three touchdowns. And then I'm watching him slinging around on that final drive of the first half. I'm like, I kind of hope Riley Leonard comes back. In the second half, Leonard throws an awful interception to the defensive end, but they just made place.

And their defense, their past defense was fantastic. Part of that was Drew Aller, but just, listen, that's a fantastic win by Notre Dame. They could lose by however many in the national championship, who gives a shit. I mean, Marcus Freeman, that Marshall loss, that NIU loss, I don't want to say it gets erased, but no one's talking about that anymore. And then NIH loss was going to be really hard for him to shake. And now it feels like this basically erases it all. And to win the way they did, I mean, they're down 10-0,

and then they come storming back on a 17-0 run to take the lead 17 to 10. Then Penn State takes the lead 24 to 7. And listen, I got Penn State. I'm like, I'm feeling pretty good here. Penn State got their mojo back. Obviously Penn State blows a coverage. guy trips, a wide receiver makes the safety miss in space, scores, ties the game. Then Penn State goes three and out with like under three minutes to go.

I mean, just a terrible series. God-awful series. And Notre Dame gets the ball. They're driving. And then, listen, Penn State's past rush is elite. Abdul Carter, who will get into here in a second, and they just make a couple big plays. They force Notre Dame to punt with under. a minute. And then Drew Aller, who to me, beside Marcus Freeman winning this game, to me,

the headline for Penn State is James Franklin loses another big game. And their quarterback crumbles. This was a guy that I was kind of buying into. And I drank the Kool-Aid. I'm like, this guy is an ascending talent. Look at what he's done the last couple games. Watch this guy pass. Some of those throws that he made against Oregon, some of the throws that he made against Boise State. And then he realized, yeah, it's in a dome, controlled environment, and just letting it loose. And then you watch him the night, he's throwing balls off his back foot like he's Jordan lover, Aaron Rogers. Turns out he's like James Winston. And balls are just floating up in the air. They're not even close to his wide receiver. He got bailed out on a pick because of a questionable

past interference call. But he was atrocious. I mean, he, he, he, He really was. And as someone who thought that he had some momentum coming in like, hell, and listen, people in the NFL have been talking about it too. Could he enter the draft? Could he, you know, could he make a lake push if they were to win this game and he were to look good, you know, to compete for like a top 10 pick? I mean, tonight he looked like a six-rounder.

He looked awful. And it's one thing like you're getting pressured, you're getting overwhelmed with the line of scrimmage. He was just not. very frenetic in the pocket, refused to set his feet, throwing just off his back foot, floating balls in the air that were just really, really bad. And you talk about a guy, I don't want to say he hurt his stock because he wasn't even declared to come out to the draft.

But like that conversation ended tonight. Go back to school. I do think, you know, he's not a great athlete, right? At one point in time when all the hype was growing a couple years ago when he, he was about to be the starter. It was like, we got a Josh Allen. Well, we saw tonight at Riley Leonard, who was a much, much better runner of the football. And honestly, tonight was a much better thrower.

I mean, made some fantastic throws to his tight end, putting it above DBs. But to me, Drew Aller, that performance tonight leaves us stinking. Everyone that watched it that's in the NFL that would just be like, go back to school, man. That's the right move. Go back to school. Work on your craft. because that interception he threw across his body over the middle of the field that lost Penn State the game is something that's going to be hard for him

to like walk back on campus. There is no telling it's 24 to 24 that you're no lock to win the game. No guarantee at all. And I got no problem being aggressive, right? You have Tyler Warren's a top 20 pick. Singleton who does not get the ball enough number 10. I like Allen, but to me the ratio of those two guys, it should be like 80% 10, 20%, 13, but it feels like they have like some, I don't know if it's in the NIL deals that they have to get an equal share of the carries, but it's insane.

But Singleton's a starting NFL running back. And, you know, Singleton a couple times was open and Aller didn't become close to hitting him. There was one that he would have scored early in the game that they had to settle for a field goal. that he technically dropped, but it was an atrocious pass. It was like a little route to the flat that would have walked right in. If he just lays it on his hands and said he throws it behind him, he hits him in the knee. And that interception is just something that it just cannot happen. Not when you've been a multi-year starter, not in a game of this magnitude.

Like, just eat the ball. Worst case scenario. Under no circumstances, can you turn it over? honestly in that spot especially on that play where his first read wasn't open he kind of he didn't really scramble but he shuffled his feet he moved in the pocket you are much better off just throwing the ball into the dirt or at the guy's feet than putting in her arms away because honestly he hit the Notre Dame defense back in stride and that's just something that's gonna that That'd be really, really hard if you were a diehard Penn State fan to,

this is one thing to lose the game. Notre Dame's clearly really good. They have a ton of NFL talent. They have a ton of young sophomore and freshman guys that are going to be NFL players. They obviously have a really good coach. They have an excellent defensive coordinator, Al Golden. You might have lost in overtime, but you can't lose it that way. And it's hard, like, I don't necessarily put that individual throw on,

James Franklin, but the entire performance in the second half, they went into halftime. And I thought for 90% of the first half, Penn State was kicking the shit out of Notre Dame. They were shoving them around. Honestly, if it wasn't for the Penn State offensive coordinator who everyone just gets on their knees and is just constantly like giving them a reach around, Colnecky, Colnecky, Cold Necky, Cold Necky. So I just hear everyone talking about it. I'm like, yeah, Colnecky, Colnecky, this guy's a great offensive coordinator. I'm watching the night.

Like, what are you doing? Why do you keep insist on passing it when Notre Dame's defensive backfield is actually pretty good and your quarterback, you could tell like through the first couple series, someone needs to talk to this guy on the sideline, someone needs to get him calm down.

He is way off. He looks rattled, and I don't even know why he would be. It's not like he'd even been touched, but he had been really bad. And you're running the ball with ease right down their throat. Keep running the ball,

but he kept passing it, passing it, passing it, passing it. Honestly, the first half felt like it should have been 20 to 3. instead it's 10 to 3. They come out in the second half because Notre Dame gets the ball. Goes right down the field, scored a touchdown. And then Penn State comes out and looks at crap.

It's like Marcus Freeman, I don't know what he said to the boys at halftime, but whatever he said worked, I don't even know if James Franklin said a word because they came out lifeless. And that's when everything really flipped. And I just, listen, James Franklin, there's no disputing the talent the guy can accumulate. he can isolate elite players, he can recruit elite players, and he can get them to come to Penn State. Because, I mean, they might got, I mean, Abdul Carter,

you could make the argument he should be the, if you're not comfortable with one of these quarterbacks being a top 15 player at his position in the NFL, like if you don't think Cam Ward or Shador Sanders is going to be a top half starter in the NFL, and you wanted to take Abdul Carter number one overall if you're the Tennessee Titans, I could not argue with you.

He basically has the same measurables as Micah Parsons. 6-3, about 240, 245 pounds. His pass-rushing ability to get around the edge is elite. And the other thing that he's proven these last couple games, clearly a shoulder or arm is kind of messed up. He's playing in pain, and he's playing his ass off. And the athleticism, the violence, his ability to get down the line of scrimbenge and make plays,

his ability to chase guys downs. He just, like, there's not much you can do that move, that speed move, when you're at that size translates. And if you go, he has a lot of similarities to Micah Parsons. This year he was the Big Ten defensive player of the year, All-American. Like, that's going to work in the NFL. I have a hard time seeing him not be a high-end pass rusher in the NFL. Like that, what he has translates.

Like that 100% works. he should definitely be in the conversation for the number one overall picks. You're talking about a team that has a guy that's worthy of the number one overall pick, one of the best playmakers in the draft in Warren, an NFL starting running back in Singleton, and the downfall of them tonight was the quarterback. Meanwhile, you got a quarterback in Riley Leonard who outplays Aller, and listen, Colin's been saying this, like he kind of likes Riley Leonard,

and I'm like, I don't know, he doesn't pass the ball. And then tonight he just threw some dimes. Obviously, he's a runner. He's fantastic. And their star running back, Love, is battling a knee injury that he hurt last week. So he puts on the big brace and pregame. They're like, yeah, I don't know how much he's going to be able to give him. And even Marcus Freeman before the game is like, he'll give us what he's got. And at first he was barely playing in the first half.

You're like, yeah, it's probably just not going to have it tonight because he's injured. And then the second half, I don't know if he warmed that thing up at halftime. He's looked much better, scored a fantastic touchdown. where he refused to be denied. He jumped over a guy, which I guess was a sixth time he's done it this year. Now, granted, he used the other leg. But from a talent standpoint, especially as the injury started mounting up for Notre Dame, Penn State had dramatically more talent on the field.

So James Franklin, when you're the CEO head coach, to come out in the second half, when you had been playing so well in the first half and be so lifeless, like, isn't you're the rah-rah guy? Like, that's your get. Like, you're the Mike Tomlin. You're the Jim Harbaugh. You're not calling either side of the ball. You just stand there on the sideline looking at the play call,

but your headset's up. And Marcus Freeman, who's also, you know, he's not the defensive or offensive coordinator, like fucking rally the troops at halftime and came out swinging, came out for blood. Man, I'm a little amped up because I had Penn State tonight, but man, one thing is when you gamble on a team, you get a much better feel for him.

And obviously if I knew that Drew Aller was going to look like a scrub, I never would have made that wager. But you talk about a guy that, and I wasn't alone. I was texting around. A lot of people were very interested to watch him tonight. And he crumbled like a cookie. I mean, he just, he completely fell apart. Even before the throw that is one of the worst throws you'll see in all of bowl season, Jalen Milrow had a couple in his game against Michigan.

But given the stakes, that final throw by Drew Aller is the worst throw. the playoffs so far, you remove that throw. The rest of the game was like a C minus D plus. And that obviously throws an F. I mean, it doesn't get any worse. And pretty cool moment that Notre Dame's kicking game was so bad most of the season. And then for the guy to hit the game winner with his dad filming. Like, it was a very entertaining game.

And just listen, one knock on Brian Kelly was like, you know, he couldn't win the big game. Couldn't win the big game. And then you get Brian Kelly playing Kirby Smart who's won multiple national championships, beats him. Then he plays Penn State with, I mean, some of the best players in the country that are all going to get drafted really, really high, beats them. Now, one takeaway I had is even if Penn State had pulled this off, I think the national championship is Friday, which most people think Ohio State's going to win, rightfully so. and obviously if Texas were to upset Ohio State,

it'd be easy to be excited about Texas. I have a hard time seeing Notre Dame beat either one of those teams, especially we'll find out, well, maybe we won't because it's not the pros is college football. The health of, I mean, you start missing your left tackle. It's hard, and listen, you've got to be football nerd, but even before the season, a guy that was potentially going to be a first-round pick, they're starting left tackle, might have been their right tackle,

definitely one of their tackles. like Torres Neas out for the season. So this is a team that, I mean, you are on some serious backups on the offensive line. But Notre Dame's tough, man. They are mentally tough. They're mentally tougher than Penn State. That's for fucking damn sure. I mean, it does not feel like Notre Dame would have blown the coverage with what was on the line with like under five minutes to go.

Would not have happened. They might have given up a completion, but that given play would not have happened. That play kind of symbolizes like the gym. James Franklin run. You're up 24 to 7, only a couple minutes left in the game. You could argue your best unit defense. Your all-star players are all out on the field, which is weird because they had looked terrible in the second half. Countless drives, Notre Dame drove right down their throat. I don't know if Penn State was gassed. I don't know if they're just the wear and tear from the season.

most games Penn State's ever played in the history of their program. Now, granted, it's probably going to be the case for all these teams, given it's, you know, the playoffs are so long and, you know, those teams have played in the first round. But that defense, from what they look like early in the game to what they were at the end, was just even the second half as a whole was a shelf of itself, and that you deserve credit if you're Marcus Freeman, like your guys did not get tired. You had backups who were ready to roll.

I mean, hell, your backup quarterback came in and led a easy field, goal drive. Honestly, I was kind of nervous you're going to lead a touchdown drive. And I just think Marcus Freeman to be a guy under 40 to have your team in the national championship when you have things you have to overcome

like academic requirements. You don't get, you have things that you have to battle in terms of your administration with your, the academic standing of your institution, that Kirby Smart doesn't, that Alabama does not, that Ryan Day

does not. That the top programs in the country do not have to battle that you have to. And you've still found a way to put together a team that's fucking good. So congrats to Notre Dame, very, very cool game. You know, Ohio State Notre Dame, they've played obviously a couple years ago. That'd be a fun match. I don't think we can lose. I mean, if you're a television network, Notre Dame is kind of like the Dallas Cowboys, you know, of college football. They haven't won a national. championship in a long time, but you put them on TV, the needle is moved, and a lot of people watch. And obviously, Texas and Ohio State are massive brands. So whoever wins this game tomorrow, playing Notre Dame. And listen, Notre Dame's going to be an underdog. And it's going

to be all the pressure would be on Texas or Ohio State in that game, which is kind of a good spot to be if you're Marcus Freeman. And the reality is, even if you were to get your ass kicked in that game, it feels like a more impressive season than any of the the ones that Brian Kelly ever had. And in a weird way that James Franklin, you get to the final four and it feels really good. When you really look at it, it's like, well, he beat SMU at home, who we all think SMU kind of, you know, sucks for a playoff team. And then you beat Boise State, you know, who, listen, we respect Boise State, but how good really was it? And then you lose a game that you were up 24 to 17 late in the fourth quarter. It's like for his awesome,

as this two-week stretch has been for Marcus Freeman, you could say tonight was just as bad for James Franklin. It's just another one. It's just like, oh, you can't be to Ohio State, can't be Michigan, couldn't beat Oregon, now he can't be Notre Dame. It's like, well, maybe one day in the semifinals we'll get to play Iowa. Maybe we'll get to play Wisconsin. Maybe we'll get to play Nebraska.

No, probably not. You're going to have to play Georgia. You're going to have to play Notre Dame. You're going to have to play LSU or Alabama. You're going to have to play Texas. You're going to have to play Oregon. You're going to have to play whoever is some elite team. That's who you're going to truly make a run in these playoffs.

You might be able to get an easier matchup in the first round. And that's what we've been saying forever about Penn State. Over the last like 10 years of the BCS or whatever it has been was like nine, that they would have made six or seven of the playoffs. Well, cool. And depending on your matchup, you probably would have been one and done in most of them. and if you would have got an easier matchup, you might have won. And then when you played a better team, you would have lost.

And the one thing I'd say for Penn State is like, I know you recruit really well, but you are losing some really, really elite players. So your opportunity to, because if you're James Franklin, just like Marcus Freeman, you won this game, you're in the national championship, even if you lose everyone's off your back, you've won three playoff games. Now you lose Abdul Carter, who if his arm checks out, I would say at worst is going third and has a chance to go first or second.

You got Tyler Warren, who I would say the latest he goes is like the mid-teens. It wouldn't shock me if you went like somewhere 8 to 12 range. So you got two guys that are going to go in the top 12. Singleton probably be a starter for someone next year. Definitely play a lot depending on the team. And clearly you've got a lot of other guys that are going to draft in the mid-round.

that is your team going to be better next year? I don't know. I don't know. And with Tyler Warren gone, you're going to depend more on Aller to like throw it to the wide receivers? I saw him attempt that tonight, and it didn't go that well.

Now, part of it is, you know, what's weird about Penn State, like I understand Notre Dame not having the best wide receivers in the country. It's hard. Stanford never did in their heyday either. Why? It's hard to academic requirements.

It's just, It's difficult. It's a position that you're going to struggle to get into school. And it's reflective of their best teams. Not saying that they can't get an NFL guy or two, but they're never going to have Justin Jefferson and Jamar Chase rolling out in their wide receiver room. But, like, Penn State, what's your excuse?

How do you not have your best wide receiver, even if he's not a Jeremiah Smith? It's like, yeah, this guy's going to go in the second or third round. Where's that guy? How does that not exist? And I think that really hurt in the night or just even this season is their wide receiver room was like, eh, could be a little better, which is crazy because they have the best tight end in the country. And their running game, and clearly their offensive line is awesome.

I haven't placed a bet in a while. And I just, I needed to get my heart going. I needed a little rush. And it was cool until you lose. And then you're like, yeah, that wasn't that cool. Maria's like, why are you screaming in the other room? I'm like, oh yeah, got a little money on this game. It's not, it's going well, and then it's not going well.

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So listen to Point Game on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Saigon, the story of my family and of the country that shaped us. The United States will not stand by and allow any power, however great, take over another country. From My Heart Podcasts, Saigon. Please allow me to introduce Joseph Sherman.

You don't think I'm serious about a free Vietnam? I should stop talking so much. I like hearing you talk. One city, a divided country, and the war that tore America apart. This is for Vietnam. I've taken a hit from Japanese ground fire. Do you rate me? They're pouring petrol all over him.

He's holding matches. I'm on a landmark. Or freeze! Let's get out! Freedom, Mom, it! Run! Saigon, starring Kelly Marie Tran and Rob Benedict. Sting, here's madness. The world should hear about this.

There's a fire coming to this country, and it's going to burn out everything. Listen to Saigon on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This week on Crimless, we're joined by our first ever guest. Sorry, our first ever guest. human guest. I don't think I could be in the same room with Shamrock

the parrot. I'd be too nervous. That's right. The very funny, Will Ferrell joins Rory Schovel and me, Josh Dean, for an episode dedicated to the many crimes committed by people also named Will Ferrell. They called to his fellow officer for the nippers. What are the nippers? Very good question. No, I was thinking, would that be a good name for like a salad dressing?

Simple assault. And it's a play on word, salt? Maybe not. I say we invest and we see. There's only one way to know. This did not amuse the cops. By the way, normally the cops are amused, but this did not amuse the cops. Will even comes clean about some of his own crimes. I didn't get caught.

You know why? If you don't want to be suspected of anything, you whistle as you walk. Listen to crime lists on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. Okay. Coming down the home stretch here. Wildcard weekend which is pretty tasty though we got some massive lines

but back at it again with my main man Stucky from the Action Network all these lines are presented by draft kings this season was kind of tale of the dominant teams and the really really shitty teams I mean the 49ers went 6 and 11 and they're not even in the top 10

I mean the bottom of the NFL was pretty putrid and clearly the top of the top of of the NFL, Lions, Chiefs. I mean, I looked, before we dive into game by game, the odds to win the Super Bowl, to me, after that Vikings game, and I know you don't want to overreact to one game, but now that they're going to have to go on the road, I think there are five teams that can win it. Clearly, the Lions and the Chiefs, you know, basically the Lions are basically 3 to 1, Chiefs 3 and a half to 1, Ravens plus 550, Bill's 6 to 1, Philly 7 to 1.

to me, those are the only five teams that can win the Super Bowl. What say you? Yeah, I agree. The Packers would be interesting to me. They fade down the stretch and then no Christian Watson, no Jaguar Alexander. It kind of limits what they can do from an upside perspective. I think that Detroit defense is still really vulnerable, especially if they play a mobile quarterback who doesn't see ghosts like Sam Darnel did.

I think they're eventually going to get picked off their defense. But with their offense, home field advantage, they're certainly in the mix. Philly is as well. Their defense is real. They obviously have all the pieces on offense. It really just comes down to Hertz not holding the ball too long. But I think they can go into Detroit and win. And, yeah, in the AFC, if the chalk holds this weekend,

would I assume will be next Sunday night. The final game of divisional round, Bill's Ravens will be an awesome game. And the winner of that versus the Chiefs, presumably, will be an awesome AFC championship game. So yeah, I think you got the five right. The Bucks could get a little frisky. Obviously, you play Washington, but then the second game would more than likely be Philly. Is that a good matchup? I saw Winfields practicing this week, clearly offensively when they get going.

And I saw Baker said, you know, the biggest difference this year than last year. And obviously last year, the passing game was unreal. They're pretty multi-dimensional. I mean, Bucky Irving talk about this is the reason why you don't draft running backs in the first round. I mean, you get high-end players in the third and fourth round. So to me, they're a team. I mean, they won a playoff game last year. I know they were playing the wounded Eagles.

But then they went toe-to-to-toe with the lions. Like, they have a lot of guys on their team. did shit have played in a lot of big games for the last four or five years. Yeah, they could be frisky. It's hard for me to see them going, you know, beating Washington, then Philly, then Detroit on the road, and then beating the AFC team. But they certainly could play. Yeah, not necessarily a Super Bowl run, but I could see them throwing a wrench in things.

I mean, shit, they almost did last year. Yeah, no, for sure. They're not going to be an easy out for anybody. I mean, they went, they beat Philly. I know Philly didn't have, you know, Brown or Smith starting or a couple offensive linemen. They were earlier this season. They went to Detroit and won also, which isn't easy to do, although they were out gained by 200 yards. Detroit just couldn't score in the red zone.

But they won't be an easy out. I do like them this weekend against Washington. Daniels has had an amazing year, but still a rookie quarterback making his first playoff start on the road. Historically, that has not gone well. And if you look, quarterbacks making their first playoffs. start against quarterbacks who have playoff experience historically, 33% straight up, 33% against the spread. Numbers are not great.

That also applies to Sam Donald against Stafford, but I think this Washington team is pretty overrated. I mean, you look what they did down the stretch. I agree. They won 12 games. Daniel was great, but they won the only playoff team they beat all year was Philly, who was about to blow them out of the water before Hertz got. hurt and then Kenny Pickett came in and then they came back that's the only

playoff team they won all year they have the lowest strength of schedule in the entire conference and you look at their past four victories they beat the Saints with Spencer Rattler by one they beat the Eagles because Hertz got hurt so they be Kenny Pickett on the last play of the game they beat the Falcons with a rookie quarterback making his first start in overtime on the last play of the game and then they beat for the seed they beat Trey Lance, and they needed Mario to come in to really do that. They were down big in that game.

They won six games on the final play of the game, on the final play this season. You go back to the Hail Mary against the Bears. So they were really fortunate all year. It's going to be a tough ask, especially that Tampa secondary is healthier. The run-Ds been good. Todd Bowles will probably dial up some blitzes to get the Daniels, create some sack, some negative plays. I'm not a believer in that Washington defense.

They're definitely ahead of schedule with the ambulance. For sure. Washington fans have to be excited. But I like Tampa, which I'm surprised that game is actually not on Monday night. But usually you get the Texans in the Saturday early afternoon slate. The Bucks is your Monday night special. But I like the Bucks and Baker to get it done laying three at home. Yeah, I totally agree with you there.

I mean, I think that's got a chance to be maybe one of the worst games of the weekend, and I'm with you on Washington. To me, they had more of a feel like two years ago, that Giants team. It's like, how the hell did they do it? But if I remember correctly, I think that Giants team went nine and eight. I mean, this team won 12 games. So it's like, I think they could be much better next year, another draft, free agent money, and win like 10, you know?

Yeah, if you get, like, they have some holes on D. They need to plug. And then you, Daniels could really use, like, another bona fide weapon, which would go a long way in boosting that offense, maybe bring in like another veteran offensive lineman. But you look, it's like, Ertz has done a ton, but I mean, Ertz is, he's ancient at this point. It's basically just McLaurin is like the receiver that you're worried about on that team.

So it's amazing what they've done with the amount of talent that they actually have on the roster. So, yeah, another draft, a couple free agent additions to plug. some holes, and Washington's definitely going to be an exciting team because you're this ahead of schedule, and what do you have? Quarterback on a rookie contract, always a major advantage when that rookie is good. Like, I bet if they could, if Dan and Peters, who worked there at the time when the trade was made, but I think they would like to have sweat. Like, I think they would have just liked to pay him.

If they would have had control at the time, they just would have given him like $90 million and had him on this team because that's one thing they're missing. It's like a really good. Now, I'd have to, like, really break down and text around to see how sweat start to finish was this year. But obviously, relative to what they have, he's really good. Okay, let's, last year there was so much momentum and everyone was picking the Browns. It was like the Browns, the Browns, the Browns. And the Texans are on scholarship in this spot.

They make the playoffs. They get this spot. So we knew this was coming a month ago. Playing the Chargers. and I saw a stat that since 2011, Jim Harbaugh's first year in San Francisco, over the next 15 years or whatever, he has more playoff victories than Mike Tomlin, and obviously he left for like eight years to Michigan.

So this guy's success in the playoffs in the NFL, he hit the ground running with the 49ers. And honestly, that first year, people probably don't remember this, but they played Eli Manning, who went on to win his second Super Bowl. Kyle Williams, the GM's kid for the White Sox at the time, like muffed a punt. I mean, the 49ers probably should have won that game. And Alex Smith, I think, was like one, a 15 or something on third downs. And it was, I don't think it went to overtime, but it came down to the final seconds.

And it was just, he is a great playoff coach. I mean, he is, he's comfortable playing in these games because he plays them normally during the regular season, like just tight contested defensive battles. but I feel like everyone, you know, you talk about like road playoff games. You know, now, Flacco is not as good as Herbert, but going on the road is just, now the Texans aren't exactly like Buffalo, you know, or Philly or something, but still, I mean, it's, it's difficult. This team has playoff experience, and I think everyone goes, well, the Texans suck.

And yeah, relative to the hype, they're not as good. But I kind of like the Texans and the points in this spot. I don't necessarily think they win, but if it's a low-scoring game, Couldn't you see the Chargers winning, like a game-winning field goal, like 19 to 17 or something? Got to take the points here. Completely agree with you. I mean, I project this like a coin flip. This line is crazy.

Like, this is assuming, we're assuming now that the charters are like over four points better than the Texans. The Texan scene that was just plus three and a half in Kansas City a couple weeks ago. I know that they had a couple defensive injuries. Tank Dell got hurt. But this line is crazy. Give me the three points all day, especially with a total, like you said, a low total. Total. It's like points are going to be at a premium. Historically, this was a favorite year in the NFL in the regular season.

We'll see how it plays out in the playoffs. Historically, wildcard weekend is a dog weekend. If you go back just to 2017, dogs 52 and 34 against the spread overall, 24 and 12, 67% in the wildcard round. 10, 3 and 2 home underdogs past 10 years. So, yeah. I mean, look at last year, the bucks, the bucks, the, Packers. I mean, were the Texans an underdog to the Browns in that wildcar weekend, or were they favored? Maybe it was a pick-um or something, but it was- Yeah, it was, it was, it was, it was a lot of Browns love. There was a ton of Browns love. And here's the thing, like, yes, I'm worried about the Texans.

The Texans, the early-down offense was troublesome all year. They had a, their point differential was zero. They were 31st and success rate on early downs. They're more likely to turn it over than Herbert, who never throws picks. The charters have two really good offensive tackles to kind of neutralize that Texans pass rush. Their blitz, their blitz under Minter has been really good when they use it. Texans struggle with their offensive line to pick up blitzes. But again, this number is way too high.

And this Texans D is still elite. It's still a really, really, really good defense. And I just think this line is outrageous. And like you said, and by the way, the, Chargers, they're good, but they're not like one of the elite teams. And here's where they beat on the road this year. Carolina, Denver, who by the way, Denver is the only playoff team. The Chargers beat the entire season.

Carolina, Denver, Cleveland, New England, Vegas, and Atlanta. Only one thought-off team. And that Atlanta game, they were dominated. And Kirk Cousins was just throwing the ball to them. Through four picks. Yeah, through four picks, and they still almost won the game. at one was a pick six. So that's it.

That's what they've done on the road. The Chargers are the lowest strength of victory in the entire playoffs. And like you said, the Texans now, it's really funny to see this in the NFL. Everyone is talking about the Texans like they're the Broncos or the Steelers, right? Like they're 10.9, 8, 10.00 underdogs, they have no chance. and this game. People already talk about the Charters of the Chiefs. I look at all my mentions. The Charter's going to beat the Chiefs this weekend.

As if they don't have to go on the road and be a team with a really good defense. And still, a really good quarterback in Stroud. I think Mixon will be able to find some holes here running the ball. You have Nico Collins. Stroud is going to see a lot of zone here. That's generally speaking what he excels against. Like, so the Texans could come in here loose, house money, play the disrespect card all week. Everyone's writing us off.

So, yeah, I think you've got to take the three here. There should be a lower scoring game two points at a premium. And the Texans O-line issues are up the center of the middle of the field where the Chargers' dominant pass rushes at the edges. I mean, Khalil Max kind of resurrect his career in her. He looks fantastic, but he's not Chris Jones. I mean, he's lining up over tackles. So that is, if you told me that they had, you know, some elite, if Aaron Donald was

on the Chargers, I'd be like, yeah, I Stroud might get sacked 10 times, but that's not necessarily the case here. So I'm glad we think alike. This next game almost feels too easy because the Steelers look like shit. Like there's no dispute. They have looked terrible. Defensive holes everywhere. Even in the game that was, you know, in theory was close last week. They were down 19 to 7 going into the fourth quarter. George Pickens, you take enough of these flyers on these red flag wide receivers. Yeah, you hit some Hall of Famers like Antonio Brown. And then you get some of this. He thinks he's Antonio Brown. He sure doesn't play like it.

And let's face it, it got cold, and Russell Wilson has not looked the same. But part of the reason this team dominated is like, it felt like the first couple of months, their defense was awesome. And now you've got guys wide open. They have good defensive alignment, but I don't trust anyone else. And the mojo, and even T.J. Watt, they interviewed him right before that Bangle game. He's like, they were already in. And he said it, it was right. He's like, we need to get some momentum. them, right? We need to get going.

And then immediately they're down and they lose, you know. And the Ravens last week were kind of in a tough spot because they needed to win, so they're playing their guys, and then Zay Flowers gets hurt on. That sucks because shit, he's become good. But, man, I mean, I just, I get this rivalry and all this stuff, but you get one team. These teams are trending in completely different areas. It does feel like there's an implosion factor. for the Steelers.

This is back-to-back years, Ducky? I mean, you know this, but they have been enormous underdogs in the first round, not against the back-to-back champion, the Chiefs, the next tier of the two teams, the Bills and the Ravens. So if I'm a Steeler fan,

I'm like, well, clearly the Chiefs are in a different universe than us, but that next two teams that are clearly two of the best teams in the league that just can't beat the Chiefs, we're not even in their world anymore. So it's like, what the fuck are we doing?

I like the ratings. If you told me the final score is like, I don't know, 27 to 10 or something. Like that's what it kind of feels like. It may be close, you know, for like 20 minutes a game time. And then you just watch it, you're like, I don't know if that was actually close. Yeah, Steelers fans have to be, like, if they get blown out here, like I think Tomlin's a really good coach, like one of the best rah-rah, like motivators in the game. But like, is it time in the Steelers organization?

and they're really loyal to him. I've been saying that forever. Trade them to the Bears. Reset your franchise. Sometimes it's just time for a new voice, but if they don't win this game, they'll be 0 and 6 straight up and 0 and 6 against the spread in their last six playoff games.

And it's been a very long time since they've won a playoff game. And their seasons all go, it's like a script. They all go the same way. It's like hot start, fade down the stretch, lose the playoff game. like that gets tiring. You know, everything inside of me says that this game will just weirdly be close. Just because every Ravens Steelers game, I shouldn't say everyone,

but like 80, 90% of them in the Harbault-Tomwin era are just always close and low scoring. I kind of like the under here as well. Everything on the field, as you alluded to, says that Ravens win easily. The market's kind of hinting at that too. But like the Ravens were just seven and a half-point favorites at home a couple weeks ago. they did end up covering, but the Steelers were without two starting defensive backs. Joey Porter gets hurt early in that

game. Ogun Jobie was out. Hickens was out. They were decimated by injuries in that game. They're going to be healthier here at least. And there's no Zay Flowers, which is massive. I mean, now you're starting wide receivers are Bateman, Aguilar, and Tylen Wallace.

You're going to miss you're really going to miss flowers and just his ability. I will say this, Batemans look good this year. He has, but he also is benefiting from the weight of flowers. So, you know, the Ravens would probably go with more two tight endsets here. You still have Henry, you still have Lamar Jackson. But the biggest thing with the Ravens is that their offense has been historically dominant all year.

And by the way, they had the hardest schedule. They faced the hardest schedule of opposing defenses in the entire league. And they have a top 10 regular season offense of all time by some metrics this year. The thing that has really made the Ravens dangerous and will make them. dangerous in the playoffs is that they fix their defense. First 10 weeks of the year, 25th and scoring, 27th and yards allowed. Since week 11, they are number one in the league in almost every defensive category. What happened in week 11? They made a switch at safety. They took Kyle Hamilton, put him back at safety. They put Ardarius Washington in at safety. They got rid of Marcus

Williams. They got rid of their veterans who were just washed, inserted Humphrey into the slot, more basically pull time, changed how they communicate. the defense. Call, simplified their scheme a bit as well. Call goes into Roquan. Roquan communicates to Kyle Hamilton. Hamilton makes sure everyone is set and needs to be where they need to be. And everything has been like a smooth operation. Now, they've been number one in the league. I got like since that, since week 11, first in scoring, first in yards, first in passing defense, first in yards per play allowed, first in EPA per play. Now they have faced some underwhelming offenses.

They place the Giants, the Browns, and even, you know, the Steelers twice, the Texans, neither of those teams are firing on all cylinders. But they also face the Chargers and the Eagles, and five of those seven teams are in the playoffs at least. It has been boosted a little bit by who they played, but there's no doubt that the defense has gone from a bottom feeder to one of the best in the league. They've always been good against the run all year, but now they fixed the issues in the secondary, simplified the scheme.

And that defense now is playing at a championship level. So that's what makes them dangerous. And we'll say this line is hitting 10, 9 and a half, 10. Double-digit favorites in the NFL are usually good bets in the playoffs. 13 and 5 against the spread since 2010, 17 and 1 straight up. There's usually a reason why an NFL playoff team would be a double-digit favorite against another. I just, I can't lay, I can't lay 10, but I wouldn't blame anyone for taking the Ravens. Everything you've seen on the field over the past month, the Ravens defensive improvement.

And just, do, like, what picking shows up, too? Does he, like, just decide, and he doesn't get a couple balls early, and then he just is done for the day? Because that's basically their, their only avenue for offense. Tom and is going to, they're going to be fired up for this game. They're going to try to ugly it up. But I kind of like the under. I really do believe in the Ravens. defensive improvement. I do think that they'll miss flowers. Steelers' defense will be healthier this

time around. They didn't have porter against the Ravens in that second meeting. They lost him. They were already down their other corner down to safety. They couldn't just run what they want to run. So I think this will be a lower scoring game. I don't have a real true feel on the side, but I wouldn't blame anyone for taking the Ravens. Kay, you mentioned rookie quarterbacks on the road, you know, making their first, obviously, playoff start. It's challenging no matter what, let alone going to Buffalo, which I mean, he's got to be on the short list not just of home field advantages,

but, I mean, a pretty special place come January. This is tough for both. I mean, listen, he's battled this season. He's probably just in terms of improvement from start to finish of the year. It's pretty remarkable what Sean Payton has done. Now, the bills, you know, they're

not for a Sean Payton team. They're really more of a defensive team. I know they just scored 100 points against the Chief's practice squad, but, I mean, they hang their hat on defense and pass rush. But this does feel like a spot do we look up and like Bo Nix from several picks? You know, it's one of those things that just unravels and go on to have a fantastic career. And we look back, like remember Bo Nix's first playoff start against, you know, who knows?

Maybe the Super Bowl champion Buffalo Bills on the road feels like a big, big challenge. And I think we'd all agree. And I'd say the same for the Chargers. incredible season for Harbaugh and Sean Baden. Right? I mean, both their win totals were like five and six or something. I mean, the Chargers won five games last year. Everyone, and I know I'm guilty of this, thought the Broncos were going to suck. Now, part of it was like...

Part of it was like... Part of it is last year... Now, granted, they got better as the season went on. You score 70 points in a game against you. Like, I don't view your defense is great. And then they turns out their defense was just elite and Benito turned into like Lawrence Taylor. but I feel I would feel stronger

if you told me I had to make the biggest bet of my life who would cover the Bills or the Ravens I hear what you said and they'd just be like well Bill's Raid Steelers could see divisional matchup maybe it is tight this is a game I would be stunned if the Broncos cover this spread I like the bills and this is a big number

it's playoffs but rookie quarterback I don't know I like the bills here minus eight and a half Yeah, it's, in a way, the Broncos have the path to cover as a dog of over a touchdown in that they have a really good defense. They have a really good offensive line and they have a really good coach who has thrived as an underdog throughout his career. Those three things, good coach, good offensive line, elite defense will get you a long way. as far as just like covering spreads of over seven in the NFL. And just if you look at these, if you just look at the metrics of these two teams,

you have elite Bill's offense versus elite Broncos defense. I will call it average Broncos offense versus if you adjust for opponents, it's an averageish bill's defense. But the biggest difference by far, which probably will end up deciding this game is the quarterbacks. Bo Nix said a amazing season has improved on a weekly basis I didn't realize he threw for 29 touchdowns

just looking at stats Yeah pretty wild But the Broncos have How many playoff teams of the Broncos beat If you don't count the Chiefs Who said all those sorts won I think the Bucks That was it We don't count the Chiefs

Yeah but they arguably They should have beat the Chiefs Yeah And to be fair They match up well against the Chiefs right because they can rush the passer in the chief's offensive line. It's a little iffy. Yeah. So that's just the biggest difference is your rookie quarterback making his first start. He's more likely to just make a couple critical mistakes.

Rookie quarterbacks against McDermott's defenses, zone heavy, want to take away the explosive play, make you drive down the field, and then hope that you eventually make a mistake or they get a negative play. Rookie quarterback's against McDermott's seven touchdown, 17 interceptions historically. So that's probably what happens in this game. is you're not going to be able to completely shut down Alan. He's going to make plays. He's going to make plays of his legs and his arm. And Nix probably makes a couple catastrophic mistakes, as rookies tend to do in their first playoff start,

especially on the road. I did play some under here as well under 47. Historically, totals of 47 or more in Wild Car weekend outdoors have been a very, very good bet. I do think the Broncos defense can hold its own here. And I think, look, the bills, aren't going to give up any explosive plays. I think Peyton knows that he's got to just keep this close as long as he can.

And I do think that they'll have some success, like just Peyton scheming up things. It's going to be just very methodical. And that's going to keep the clock moving. But he's going to play conservative, play field position, not going to be taking too many risks early. Now, eventually they get down. You're going to have to, which is when it could get out of hand. but I think this total is a bit too high because I don't see the Broncos offense going off. I think their defense will hold its own, and I think Peyton will call this game close to the vest.

And Nixon, that offense can do enough to just keep drives alive. Like you don't want them failing miserably. And then they're just punting three and out punt, punt, punt, and then they get way behind, and they have to come out and chuck, which is then the game could get out of hand. So I like some under there as well. But this game, yeah, I mean, it just comes down to. it's Josh Allen versus a rookie quarterback on the road in their first plow star. It's probably the difference.

Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers. And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it.

We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't really. remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. We were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers.

This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, Hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.

Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast, Point Game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed.

And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows. Without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series

because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nass would get that thing.

That man, hell get the flying. He running up the court, licking his fingers, why he got the ball, like, After you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is Saigon, the story of my family and of the country that shaped us. The United States will not stand by and allow any power, however great, take over another country.

From IHeart Podcast, Saigon. Please allow me to introduce Joseph Sherman. You don't think I'm serious about a free Vietnam? I should stop talking so much. I like hearing you talk. One city, a divided country, and the war that tore America apart. This is for Vietnam. I've taken a hit from Japanese ground fire.

Do you rate me? They're pouring petrol all over him. He's holding matches. I'm on a landmine. For free time. Let's get out. Freedom from Vietnam. Run!

Saigon. starring Kelly Marie Tran and Rob Benedict. Sting here's madness. The world should hear about this. There's a fire coming to this country and it's going to burn out everything. Listen to Saigon on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Agency, the ability to know that we're the experts in our own body. On the podcast cultivating her space, Dr. Dom and Terry Lomax create a space where black women can show up fully and be

heard. I wholeheartedly think, you know, you hit 30, you shouldn't have to share one with anybody. Mm-hmm. From navigating friendships and healing to setting boundaries and prioritizing your mental health. These are real, honest conversations. We don't always get to have out loud. Totally unreasonable with different parts of life, right? Like, oh, have all three meals and make sure you're mindful during all of them? Absolutely not. During one meal, I'm standing. I'm standing and handing my children food. Because healing and power, and resilience aren't just ideas, their practices. And this Mental Health Awareness Month, there's no better time to pour back into yourself.

Listen to cultivating her space on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. You know, we haven't talked about this yet, but if you had to do pressure rankings, I would put Sean McDermott on the, I would put Sean McDermott, Siriani, and, and, Lamar. I mean, you could convince me of any different order of that group, but I would say, you know, Sean McDermott in one of these games, if they're down,

I could just see it getting a little tight. You know, I mean, there's just a lot of pressure on him, probably as the MVP of the league. Regardless, you know, Lamar's had the best season of his career. But like, clearly, you know, John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott have

two of the greatest quarterbacks we've seen, like, not only of their era, but like in my life, just pure talents. And the different, last year the Ravens were in the AFC championship game. Now, you lose the Chiefs, sometimes like losing to Michael Jordan or Tiger Woods, tip your hat. But like, you got a, the bills to me at minimum for this season to be a success have to win these next two games. And like you said, the Broncos have a guy that's, I mean, getting paid $18 million for reasons. He's viewed as one of the best coaches in the league.

And I think this year was a pretty big muscle flex for him. So it's like, this is a tough little. matchup from a coaching perspective and Vance Joseph in the defense is like this, maybe I'm underestimating like I like the bills because of the road advantage, but from just a pure coaching advantage. Like Denver's really well coached, you know, and then that that really, really matters in the playoffs. It's why like the Chargers, Texans game, like, I think Demico's really good, right? It's not, this isn't Jim Harbaugh against some guys like, how did he make the playoffs, you know, just because he won some shitty division? Like, that's a good coaching matchup.

So is this Bill's, you know, to me, the Bill's Bronco game is just a lot in the line with a lot of guys. Now, you know, listen, Joe Brady's been a stud too. And it's like, that's the Philly thing. Like, so, you know, Siriani, I would say at minimum, right, you just got to win these next two games. You lose on the road in the NFC championship game. People, you know, depending on how it looks would be mad. But it's like, listen, you go back to the NFC championship game. you lose the lions.

Like it's been a successful season. But this game, could this game be a little trickier that everyone thinks? Like everyone's off the Packers. Now, Jordan Love's been banged up. Christian Watson Tours ACL. He honestly wasn't even that productive this season.

It was banged up. Defensively, is it safe to say Jeff Halfley upgrade over Joe Berry? Have they been better this season? And like this Packer team and, you know, this gets back to like the Sean Payton thing. and like Google LaFleur's resume,

and I know he's had Rogers, but even last year with Jordan Love, like he's one playoff games. This is not like fresh bright lights. Like I'm overwhelmed here. Like they went into Dallas last year, a 12 win team and beat the shit out of them. So it's like,

this is not a team and a group of guys. It's all their core guys. And Josh Jacobs is like, you know, from Alabama and he played on that team a couple years ago with Derek Carr that made the playoffs at the end. Like they've been in big games. I just, I like Philly.

I mean, obviously their roster, I think you could argue, is given his health, if Jalen's healthy, is the best in the NFL top to bottom. But this is, this is not like an easy first round matchup for being a two seven. Yeah, you, you mentioned it with the, with coaches. Can't trust that enough how important coaches and coordinators are in the playoffs. Like, I can talk, I can sit here and talk about, okay, this is what this team does. this is there these are these tendencies this is how much this team runs zone man blah but this is the time that you switch that up right and you have curveballs and you come out with the high leverage games and that's that's where you can see these types of things where the coaches

can make all the difference and then those high leverage decisions on fourth downs and uh your your script in the beginning of games short yard age yeah all those things magnifies of coaching is just absolutely massive and man the floor i think is one of the best been very very you're one of the best as an underdog, too, against the spread for what it's worth. I played the Packers' first half plus three. I think the line is too high in general. I look, the Eagles defense is legit. Like, since week after their buy, they put Cooper de Gene in the starting lineup.

They're both of their rookie cornerbacks have been outstanding. That was the biggest weakness last year. Their linebacker room was a weakness last year. Zach Baum came over from the Saints. He's been great. And Fangio has been obviously a massive upgrade at defensive coordinator. to have all the pieces on offense. Hertz does still hold on to the ball too long,

which leads to, like, he has the highest rate of dropbacks that lead to sacks, throwaways, or scrambles in the league at 25%. So he does still just hold it a bit too long. That's like kind of what holds their passing offense back a bit, and they face the easiest schedule of opposing defenses in the league. Packers faced a much harder schedule, played in a much tougher division overall as well.

But the reason I like first half, on the Packers plus three at show value in the number. But I think number one, the four is going to have a good script. Number two, Hertz could come out a little rusty. You know, he hasn't played in a while. There's also data out there that suggests there is dip in production in your first game back from a concussion. Now, it's been a while.

But maybe that's not as magnified, but we still don't have a ton of data on this stuff. Do you think they were screwing with people? Like, did he was, he could have been cleared weeks ago? Or they've just been like, is it just? the league mandate from my understanding is like you clear it when you clear it like he wouldn't have played last week anyway so why would they even care that to me is a little concerning that like he was in the protocol it's one thing maybe you miss a game and clear it the next monday or tuesday but like this carried on for like weeks i agree yeah i it is more it's it seems

i mean he's got to play but it seems like is there going to be a residual effect and just general rust right now playing for 20 days you know you see that in week one with quarterbacks after they don't play in the preseason so early on that could be a problem and then just in general the eagles all year were slow starters this is the team they averaged 3.6 points in the first quarter that's 21st in the NFL 12.4 in the first half it's right around average packers are 6.4 in the first quarter 13.6 in the first half that's fourth and six so packers very good first half offense eagles not just take the first two drives of first two drives of the all for the offense of the Eagles all year there are bottom three offense in terms of EPA from the third drive on top three offense so they just

the script is not working they there's something they haven't been able to figure out and these are two very run heavy teams two of the I think in neutral game states the D2 heaviest run offenses in the NFL what does that mean especially like in the first step, fewer possessions. There might not be that many possessions. So the Eagles start slow, a couple of possessions. Packers have a good script. It hurts a little rusty.

I want that plus three in my pocket. And, yeah, I'm a bit worried about the Green Bay defense. Packers start slow sometimes, too, though, I feel like Minnesota game, the Detroit game, and then Jordan gets going in the second half. But if the Eagles start and slow, too, maybe it's just 10 to 7. at a half, you know? Yeah. Yeah. And that happened last year, too, as well. But I trust the LaFloor script in this spot. The, the, where they miss Watson, if you look, with and without Watson on the field, their explosive play rate goes way down in the passing game. And the running game's impacted

a little bit, too, because he just stretches the field. They need Reed to step up and not have drops. I need dubs to step up. And, uh, but they're going to play zone here on defense, a lot of zone hurts is better versus man. I think that they can get him maybe for a turnover or two, especially if he's just a little off early on. And yeah, no Alexander worries me. If you look at their splits just against receivers with him without him, and he's been hurt for a lot of the year.

But with him on the field when he's healthy, like they have a bona fide top corner, which they just do not have right now, which is scary going up against, you know, Smith and Brown, when you already have to worry about Barclay. So I worry about just if the damn breaks and then the Eagles are such good front runners if they get a lead. They can go on like an 8 to 10-minute touchdown drive and then just suck. You suck the soul out of the other team with the push pushes and then it's just like a nine-minute touchdown drive and then it's lights out.

But I don't mind the Packers here. I think this will be a really good game. I don't mind taking the points. I took some first half plus three. I think the way someone beats Philly in the next three rounds and the way that they don't win the NFC is you get up on them and they got to crack. Yeah, and then just force them to crack because like you said,

they get a lead. They are the best front running team because they got so much talent and they're so explosive and then they start vibing. They only have to get nine yards for a first down. You get like 14 to 3, especially in these either this week or next week at the link and they start booing and fucking AJ Brown starts side-eyeing people and

Siriani and it just can get weird. To me they have the most weird potential if they get down in a spot. Like even the bills, if they got down, I've watched the bills get down in a lot of games. I think Sean's mellowed a little bit and clearly like he's not as insecure about the whole situation.

Like he's the boss. I think half the people look at like, what's Siriani even doing on the sideline? So I hear you there. And, you know, the one thing with LaFeyerner Floor, I think we saw it last week with Kevin O'Connell, and honestly this all year, he treats Sam Darnold like he's Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, just fling it, fling it, fling it, fling it, McVeigh, like, they're Shanahan guys. I mean, Kevin O'Connell technically isn't, but like they're all under

that tree. LaFloor is the closest to Kyle of like, I'll run it 40 times if it's working. Like, I'm a run game guy. That's how he got Rogers rolling again. Like, Aaron, get back under center, let's just control the game, and then the passing game comes from there. And I, you know, he was with Kyle for so long, and that shit works in the playoffs, especially as a dog, you know, because you can control the game, where you just saw like, hey, Kevin, run the ball, get something easy for Sam. I bet LaFleur and Kyle were watching that. Like, why are you force-feeding these passes when your guys off a little bit?

It's like the Houston Rockets when they just kept shooting threes against the Warriors, like, just get a lay-up, you know? Especially inside the 10, they weren't even trying to run. I know, but you're wire. I haven't worked for Andy Reid. who is like, you know, the steroid version of those guys, you're wired like you're wired. And like, you're true colors, you're a past guy or a run game guy. And like that's when all else fails, you lean one way or the other.

And it's why, so I'm with you. I think this game's going to be very, very interesting. I'm staying away. I just think that I'm with you, though. That number feels a little big, though it wouldn't shock me if the Eagles win by like 15. I think this, we talked about the Washington Bucks game. I'm going ramps. Now, obviously there's this curveball in the world of this fires that are just raging that are impacting everything.

And they might have to play the game in Glendale. And it just uproots a little bit of their just not just home field advantage, but who knows, maybe guys have had to evacuate some homes or people they know or maybe their girlfriend. Who knows? It's just, it's not an ideal situation. But I think you saw that, you know, listen, I'm pro Sam Darnel. It can't really be argued what we witnessed, but that first half, like, he's airmailing, he airmailed eight passes. And he started like, there were a lot of clips going around, like guys were open.

He did the seeing and ghost again. He struggled to pull the trigger and it just unraveled. What if the Rams get after him a little bit? I mean, you're missing your left tackle. They have a good young pastor. That's what I'm saying. So, and we talk coaching, coaching, coaching, listen, Kevin, easy guy to like, media loves them. like, Google how many big games the guys won in his life?

You know? I mean, this is like, I think we just look at him like an equal to all these cats. Like, zero career playoff wins last time I checked. So, and now he's a road dog against Sean McVeigh. I mean, a road favorite, excuse me. Like, I just think people are underestimated. Now, listen, the Rams have not looked good when they were playing guys, remove the Buffalo game.

Offense has been off. But to me, like, this is a classic spot, like, last week, right? Sean McVey didn't give a shit about that game. Who do you think they were game planning for during the week of the Seattle game? They were probably breaking down the lions and the Vikings. Half the staff does one. Half the staff does other. And Jimmy just run 10 of our plays all game long. He didn't care about that game, which you could argue whether he should have because now he plays Washington, but we know that's not what Sean does. I just think coaching, coaching, coaching matters a lot. And listen, I'm not acting like Kevin O'Connell and Flores aren't good, but I'm pro Sam Darnold, but But if he gets off, the other thing is confidence, it takes a while to build up, and it really kind of came for him, it could go away. I don't care what you do, really quick. So now, like, short week, ton of pressure, everyone's kind of questioning him now. What if you have a bad couple early drives?

I could just see that getting weird fast. Or just goes well. I mean, they clearly have a lot of talent, and Sam's made a lot of big plays. But their coach is not going to keep, like, he is going to be relentless on calling past place. That's just what he does. Yeah, the Rams secondary worries me a bit here against the Vikings. And I feel like I'm selling the Vikings. I'm selling low on them after what we saw last week.

But I'm with you on the Rams. I bet the Rams. Now, it's a little dicey with way more important things in the world. But, you know, the air quality and the fire, they could force them the move, which obviously wouldn't be ideal. but at the end of the day, give me the better quarterback as a home dog in this matchup. It definitely wouldn't be ideal, too, if they came here

because I feel like a lot of people from the general Minnesota region live in Arizona and definitely snowboard here. I could see that being like 80% biking fans. Yep. Yeah. So that wouldn't be ideal. But as of right now, they're still planning to play it, that's so-fi. Just give me the better quarterback.

And again, I mentioned the staff before, first-time quarterback, a quarterback making their first-time, first playoff start, 33%. I think it's 1937 and 1 against quarterback's a playoff experience. It hasn't gone well. And Donald, it looked like you've seen ghosts last week. I mean, and you mentioned it. Now, you've won 14 games, but you might have, you have to go on the road, which is crazy. But you might have a quarter weekend. but you might have a quarterback and a kicker who are lacking in confidence because

Will Reichard really struggled down the stretch and Rams kicker Cardi who has had his struggles at times he's now has a ton of con I think you have a 57 and a 58 yarder that could make the difference but yeah and you mentioned with McVeigh some people agree with it some people don't but that's what he always does it in 2017 he did it last year did it this year doesn't care about the seating in this case I can see it in a way like Stafford's older. Down the stretch, he looked a little bit older. And they didn't have a buy since, like, week five.

So I think that the rest, the preparation, they just had a buy week last week. So you have Stafford and this offense home dog, better quarterback. Yeah, I'm taking it. And the Vikings have been good. O'Connell, hell of the season, what he's done with Darnel. But I think the Rams can get pressure here. And look, the Vikings, they did win 10 games in a row before that loss of the lines. the only playoff team that they beat during that stretch was the Packers by two.

That was it during that stretch. And I still think that their secondary is very vulnerable, like, just from a talent perspective. And Rams receivers, I actually think the Rams can run it too. The Vikings have a really good statistical run defense, but that's because most of the year they were up. And, like, they were leading teams and dictating the game state. And, like, you saw when they played teams, like, the Lions when they weren't up, Lions ran all over them. So I think Kairn Williams can have enough success here.

So, yeah, I would be very concerned about Darnold, especially if he gets off to a slow start. But even if Darnold's on, like, the Rams can still keep up. Like, look at the Bills game, right? Like, the Rams can still win this in a shootout if they need to. And, yeah, they have the rest, the preparation advantage. I am super curious. Like, there's a lot of matchups here. One thing I should mention back to the Bucks coaching, like,

Liam give me Liam going over cliff kingsbury too um so like that that matters too but here flores versus mcday is such a fascinating chess match to me because what does flores do in the first meeting so the rams beat the vikings earlier this year at home in that game it was a pretty tricky spot for the bikins they were on a short week Thursday night had to go out west they didn't know nuku was going to play like he was highly questionable um flores said he didn't think he was going to play. He found that he was shocked. So they didn't really have a game plan for Nekuwen.

It was a short week anyway. They didn't blitz as much as they usually do. But they play a ton of zone, and then they're going to blitz a lot. Stafford picks up, and those receivers did just destroy zone. And I think Stafford this year, some matches like 31st against man, the top three against zone. Flora is one game this year. And Jordan Lov has kind of similar splits, too. Flores won one of the games against the Packers this year went just against everything they've been doing all year and played went man heavy.

So I'm very curious to see like the game plan that McVeigh has. He always has like a really good wrinkle. You know, like just something you wouldn't expect on the offense and how what they're going to run. And then what does Flores do? Like that's such a cool chess match to me. But to boil it down to the most simplified terms, which sometimes you just have to do, better quarterback. home dog assuming they're playing at home.

I also think you know two years ago when they lost the Giants in this round they had won 13 games I just had to Google it because I was like they win 12 they went 13 and 4 this year they have 14 wins if you lose twice in three years in the first round

when you win a total of 27 games like I do think we Kevin O'Connell's good but I also thought that and listen it might not have directly come from him but for a story to come out in one of the biggest days of his coaching career that like teams might trade for him clearly he wants to get paid like it was kind of Parselsian it's like bro let's pump the brakes you're gonna get paid this offseason if I was Dan Campbell I would have been licking my lips it's like these players aren't dumb like they know what's going on it's like okay you tell all these players was focus focus focus meanwhile you got fucking Glazer talking about like guys are going to trade essentially like it's I make seven million it's to pay me like 15. It's like, oh, I was like, oh, that's not a good sign. And that's kind of

classic football. You can do that if you're, if you're Andy Reed or something. Like, Kevin, let's slow down. And then you get your ass kicked against Aaron Glenn. I mean, come on, man. Very, very interesting timing on those reports. Yeah, to me, I, I didn't like that at all. And if I was a Vikings fan, and I know they're not as like inside baseball on it all, but it's pretty clear, you know, who wants to be, why, that report comes out, right? Especially when it comes out. You know, Minnesota hasn't talked to him about a contract extension.

It's like, well, let's win a real game. You win a lot of regular season games. Like, that's cool. Like, Mike McDaniels won some regular season games. He's got bounced in the first round a couple times. Like, are you getting bouncing in the first round a couple times? So I think this is a big moment for Kevin O'Connell who is like, now again, I'm not anti-Cevonel, but he, you know, Brandon Staley was this really, really quick

then everyone jumped off him. McDaniel was this for a while. Kevin O'Connell's that new version. Now, again, 13, 14 wins. Those are great regular seasons. You start winning a real game, and this is a real game. Yeah, I agree with you.

It makes the playoff so fascinating. And some of it's not fair, and some of it's fair, right? For sure. The world you live in in the NFL with these one and duns, and then questions start getting asked. By the way, I'm curious to get your thoughts on this.

We debated this on, my NFL podcast this week. If you had, we're just going to take the NFC. This year's NFC and you have to get through the NFC and then you have to play the ASC. Your goal is to win a Super Bowl. All of the rosters are the same. All of the coaching staffs are the same.

There's no advantage. You have the same scheme that every other player is the same. So if you were like playing on Madden, you would have the same player except quarterback. And you can share. choose which quarterback for your team in the NFC that you would take that's currently in the playoffs, which quarterback are you taking if your goal is to win a Super Bowl? This year, and to get through the playoffs this year and then the beat, you know, either presumably

the Chiefs, bills or Ravens. Which NFC quarterback are you rolling with? It's going to sound crazy because I probably talk some shit about this guy, but I might take Jalen Hertz just because it could move. You know, I almost said Jaden. I just, the Jared Goff thing, what if my offensive line's not great and who's my coach, all of a sudden he can't move. Like, he's pretty predicated, like, his success is predicated on some protection, right?

And, yeah, and Ben Johnson. Yeah, so I, I, I, oh, Stafford, but like you said, I mean, the version of Stafford a couple years ago, he's looked a little old. Yeah, and he can't move. No, I, so I, that's tough. It's, it's hard to rank the NFC quarterbacks because, like, Jordan loves, like, this raw big time talent who we've seen have some moments but he can also look like crap it's tough i consider love because just be if there there you could make a case for so many of them but i wouldn't

take daniels just because he's a rookie but like i would need i would need mobility in this exercise yeah you could argue baker you could argue many i think i would take love i think i might take love because i want to win the super bowl and i need to like beat the chiefs or the ravens the bills and all the roster is the same in the NFC. Love's upside, I know, is really high. Like when he's on and clicking. But, yeah, there's no, like, this is the right answer in the NFC. AFC's in a different universe.

Yeah, from a quarterback perspective for sure. I think the... You even have Herbert, like, even the... You have the top tier, second tier, and then even the next tier with, you know, Herbert and Stroud. You would take Herbert over every guy in the NFC without hesitation. Yes, absolutely. The one thing, and I got two things were pretty cool last weekend.

Obviously, Bryce Young, just what a cool story. I mean, he looked. I mean, he looked like a UFL player, and then to come back in after Andy Dalton gets in the car accident and not just look like a real NFL player, like be kind of a fun, like, ah, they might have something there. I do think Baker. A no look throw. The guy who looked like he had zero confidence.

like hated his life being out there to then in one season then be throwing a no look throw like taking leadership yelling at guys having fun smiling yeah it's uh it was definitely encouraging so it was nice to say for a guy we can all be jaded and negative the you know the longer you do you work in this and just it's easier to be you know down on guys but that was just an easy story to kind of make you smile and easy got a root for i i do think there are some similarities it's way different, but in terms of like what Baker has turned into these last two years, I don't know if he's getting married, having a child. Clearly he's, you know, it's hard to tell like his body, but I think he's talked about slimmed down a little bit because he moves dramatically better.

He's always had a really explosive arm. I mean, he's just a really good player. You know, he's not in the Josh Allen Lamar Mahomes, but he for sure to me is a top 10 quarterback in the NFL. And I think he's a really good player. Yeah, he just has to avoid the catastrophic mistake. which he can at times just throw a ball in wayward's way a bit too much. But, yeah, his mobility. And then, like, Liam Cohen has been amazing. And you do need help as a quarterback. And you can't just have a one-dimensional offense.

They couldn't run the ball a lick. And now they have a dynamic rushing attack, which helps everything else out. So, yeah, that Baker's been fun to watch this year. And his scrambling has been great. But yeah, Young, there's definitely some promise there now for sure for Carolina in the future where it looked like it was dead. I mean, the bucks are just well run, aren't they? I mean, they draft well.

They just run a good operation. Obviously, it's, you know, now starts with Baker. So, okay, let's have an exciting weekend. And I hope at least like, I don't know, 75% of these games are good because we're going to get a couple blowouts and some duds in the second half. But hopefully some of them are, you know, really good. Maybe we even get like a legendary, you know, just game of the year. But yeah, I'm hoping at least four really good. It'd be awesome if there's five that are really good. The Monday night game recently has been a dud, right? Dak blew out Tom Brady last year, the Bucks blew out the Eagles. So hopefully I wouldn't mind it. A couple years ago,

remember the Rams kick Kingsbury and Kyler's ass? Yeah, yeah. I wouldn't mind a good Monday night game. Yeah, that would be nice. especially since they're making those teams play on a short week anyway. The, yeah, just keep in mind historically, it doesn't mean it's predictive, but this weekend, if you're listening, this weekend, generally a dog weekend. That's what Wildcar weekend has been if you're looking to bet. And home dog weekend specifically, I happen to like both home dogs to speak, Charger Texans and Rams.

Okay, Stucky, I'll talk to you next week. We'll dive in the divisional round. We'll dive into, we'll know who's playing in the national championship. So be an exciting, I mean, divisional round, widely consider the best weekend in all of football. And obviously, the national championship is, we're recording this on Thursday before the games has a chance to be, I mean, pretty incredible matchups. So, uh, fired up for some football. Talk to you soon, buddy. You bet.

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