The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Best Gambling Show Ever - NFL Week 12 Bets: Saints-49ers, Buccaneers-Browns, Bengals-Titans, Ravens-Jags

Episode Date: November 26, 2022

Alex Monaco and Liv Moods share their sports betting insight and favorite picks including Tom Brady and the Buccaneers against the Browns, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens vs Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, Joe Burrow and the Bengals taking on Derrick Henry and the Titans, Jimmy Garoppolo and the 49ers vs the Saints, and the Bears taking on the Jets. #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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but happy Thanksgiving to everyone. We hope everyone had a great day. I know. Happy Turkey Day. It's so crazy. Like last week when we were talking about our schedule and our producer, Anaya was like, okay, so what's our schedule next week for the holiday?

I was like, holiday. Like, it does not feel like it should be. I feel like October is the fastest moving month of the whole year. Like it always seems like all of a sudden it's Halloween and it's like, what? October's over. Like it's just, it's, I feel like October's always been that way. It just flies by and, yeah, we're already in. And I've already decorated my room for Christmas, Monaco.

I know I jumped ahead. I jumped ahead. I know I'm the pre- Thanksgiving Christmas spirit type of person. I don't hate it. Everyone's strong with put up the Christmas tree before Thanksgiving. I'm a big fan. I love it. But yeah, it just shows also how quickly this football season is moving.

We are like cranking through the year. It's nuts. Flying playoffs around the corner here. Let's get into it. We'll start with a little fade or follow for our week 12 picks. This is a tough one formula. you know I like the Ravens. I back the Ravens, particularly more in the first month, six weeks of the season. But I'm looking at this Jags plus four number. I'm watching this Ravens game last week against the Panthers, against Baker Mayfield.

This game was 3-3 going into the fourth quarter. I don't know what's going on with Baltimore. I know they're dealing with injuries. Andrews comes back. He looks all right. There's no one for Lamar to throw to right now. Outside of Duvernay, Bateman gone and Andrew's hurt is killing him. And of course, they got running back issues. And Drake goes for under 50 yards last week. I don't know how the Ravens are doing it. It's, again, I shouldn't say I don't know how. They're doing it with coaching and next man up mentality. But their record, they've earned it.

But it's weird. They're winning games. They shouldn't. They're losing games in the beginning of year. They should. So should win. I'm looking at the Jags. Defensively, we got a top 10 run team.

They've been pretty good defensively. I mean, you go points for points against in this matchup. It's 24 for the Ravens, 21 for the Jags, and 19 and 20 giving up for both defenses. So they're close. And I look at the Ravens and that magic number four, which is what we're betting, five of the 10 games they've danced in this year have landed on four or less. They're known for playing close games. So for me, Dougie P, extra time to prep, home game, by week, Ravens running game, not looking great. Jags have a good rush D.

Can they just find a way to take care of the ball and really just muck it up? This is an ugly game. It's a gross game. Now, again, Lamar's from Florida, not necessarily from the Jacksonville area, but, you know, we know teams go into Florida live, whether it's in Tampa, Miami or Jacksonville. Sometimes they just lay an egg. So I'm banking on a few of what I broke down to happen and just a defensive-minded, non-turnover approach for Trevor Lawrence in this team, which is easier said than done. But are you fading or

fall when I'm going Jacks plus four at home? I don't know. I don't know how I feel about this game because the little bit you just said there where you said no turnovers, just play defense. I mean, they're probably going to turn the ball over, but just Lamar, they're not moving the football on offense. I mean, he threw barely over 200 yards last week. And again, the Panthers are a very good deed, but Jacksonville is a very good defense too. We're they all show up. Yeah, this is an interesting one to me. I think something's telling me I could see like a last second mistake,

self-inflicted wound by this Jags team that will cost you this bet. It just, these are two teams that will pretty much make you sweat it out up until the clock strikes zero. And one of these teams I trust a little bit more, one of these QBs I trust a little bit more. And that's got to be Lamar Jackson here. Now, I don't love the number four. if you're betting on the side of the Ravens. So for that reason right there,

this, I could see this very well being a field goal type of game. I'm not sure that the Jags come out on top of this one. Of course, that's not what you're betting. So at four, I'll follow you. I just, I think I could see some sort of strange turnover, mistake, fumble, weirdness. No, you're right, you're right. They're covering, they're doing everything right, and then some sick fourth quarter.

Yeah, and when you handicap, and that's half the reason I stay away from this Jags team, because a lot of times I look at their matchups, and to me, I'm like, oh, this is a great spot for the Jags. Yeah. And the whole game, it looks to be that way up until one final moment. And so they're just a really stressful team to bet on. Both of these teams are, as a matter of fact,

are very, very stressful to bet on. I just think the Jags, man, And they just, when it comes, these are two of the worst teams in terms of closing out of game. Literally. And I'm going right in. I'm going right in. I mean, it's one of those games. You just got to buckle up, put your head down and just go after it.

So I think at the number four, I don't hate this bet. But this is an ugly one, Monica. These are really, these are two teams that'll give you a heart attack. So best of luck to you. Yeah, public's coming in heavy on the Ravens, but the money's in on the Ravens. too. So again, it's a small number, but I'm banking on

kind of like I alluded to, just the Ravens, half their games have landed on this number or less. And the Jags with extra time to prep. I mean, you can't get really a better spot at home after two weeks. I don't know. We'll see. This is kind of what is this

Jags team made of for this season? If they look bad, then yeah, forget even wanting to back them against the spread. But let's keep it pushing. Let's, let's throw another one at you. This is a rematch of the wild car, excuse me,

the second round divisional last year in the AFC. The Bengals head to Tennessee. The Titans could not be hotter. Both teams coming in four and one in their last five. But I remember this playoff game vividly last year, Liv. And we're, so I'm fading the Titans on this one.

At home, I know it. It's everyone's betting darling right now. They're coming out on top in unfathomable ways. But this is fresh off of the whole wide world watching Tennessee annihilate the Packers in which I was on the wrong side for. Off of a Tannahill. Best game of this season. Lived 333 yards.

Yes, he threw that pick at the end, but otherwise was spectacular. Five incompletions the entire game. It was an incredibly coach game. So we're taking the bangles off really an impressive. They were down early against Pittsburgh. Come back. dealing with a mix of concussion, no chase. They still get it done.

Burroughs been fantastic in the last five weeks here. And again, I go back. I look at the box score. I didn't have time, of course, to watch a game. But that 16 points in the 1916 final score, gross. Gross game. But in that game, they held Tanna Hill in check, did not have a great game at all. 15 for 24 with three picks.

and then they held Derek Henry at bet. Actually, Deontay Foreman before he went to the Panthers was the leading rusher for the Titans in that game. So with Burrow going no picks in three of his last five, taking a little bit better care of the ball. I know he had a couple picks last week. I put that in a drawer. It's the Steelers.

It's in division. This is, again, could not, this is peak Titans, right? Live, highest you could take the Titans on fire, Natty TV game. I just, I like the Bengals here. they've played pretty serviceable run defense. The last few weeks they've let it go on defense. I'm not going to lie. But I'm looking more to the offense here.

And again, Tennessee is not going to play a shootout game. It's going to be an ugly game similar to the divisional round. So I just think this game is a nice timing spot to fade the Titans. And it's a virtual pick-em. So I'm going to go money line here and I'll play it with a one-a-half. What do you think? You fade and follow it. I love it.

I'm going to follow you here. I think the Bengals are in a great spot right now. I love what Joe Burroughs doing. I think this is a game that boils down to which offense can produce more in the red zone. And that's the Bengals by a lot. So I like this Bengals offense right now, even without Chase. I think both of these defenses can do enough to keep the offenses slow. So I do kind of lean with the under in this game as well.

I think it will be a very ugly matchup, kind of like what we saw last season. So love the bangles. I think I love the under even more under 42 and a half is where you can get that right now. But if I am picking a side here, I do love the Bengals. I love what they're doing. I think they're playing. Keep using this word with certain teams. But I think they're playing fundamentally sound on offense right now.

Like things are just making sense. They're not having any major issues. Joe Burrow, we're seeing him back in his in his form, if you will. They're running the ball well. The past game is great with Burrow at the head of it. So yeah, I love what the Bengals are doing right now. I think obviously we do have a Titans team that is finding their momentum, finding their groove. But to me, the Bengals are just, this is a simply bet the better team.

And I think the better team is the Bengals here. So I love it, but I also do love the under. So maybe might just mess around with a little same game parlay, Monica, a little under and little Bengals money line. Let's go. Maybe a little T. Higgins prop. He ate well over a hundred yards. last week. I want to throw one more to you and I know you got one for me real quick. I'm going to

I'm going to lay the hook here. I don't love it. But this is this is a weird timing spot for the Browns. Of course, they got this looming quarterback change that's going to happen. A lot of distractions this week, in my opinion, for Cleveland to just look ahead. And again, to say you're looking ahead to the Texans is outrageous. But in this particular scenario where your current quarterback's coming back used to play for them, there's a world where this could be. be a distracted club this week and had to deal with a distracted last week as well with planning on going to Buffalo and then having to go to Detroit. And they were competitive for about three quarters and then kind of routed towards the end.

Their scoreboard didn't indicate how close it was. But I look at Tampa. Again, they're also off by two weeks here to prepare off a Germany W. And the last two weeks lived 2116 and 16 13 over the Rams and the Seahawks and the FC West. and that's bucks football ugly ugly very good defense and they went back to where they have struggled which is running the ball they committed to running

white was a nice breath of fresh air taking the pressure off of lenny and i know we know brady's throwing the ball at a record rate with attempts this year but also a record rate would not turn the ball over and i look at the browns they've lost six of their last seven they're not a particularly good cover at home just three and seven against the spread in their last ten

going back to last year. And just not covering either in the last seven games. Just two covers. So I know Sharps maybe would want to lean at home team with the three and a half. Again, we know what Belichick and Brady were together after a buy. It was almost three wins to one loss. So Brady off a buy historically is incredible. I just think this team has turned the corner again.

This is when Brady plays his best football. This is a dysfunctional team that I think is distracted. And that's kind of what I'm banking on here. and I'm just hoping they can cover this three and a half. I got the bucks, you know, bucks by six perhaps here. Are you fading or following?

I'm going to follow you. Wow, let's go. Yeah, you said it. Brady off of a buy, I love. And before the buy, that's the key is what were we seeing from this bucks team before the buy and we were finally seeing them do something,

basically. I think they kind of caught some momentum. Now they're getting some rest. I think they're becoming less and less injured as well. which is always a plus. And then you've got the Browns who are kind of the opposite. They've got some injuries. And to your point, the distraction piece, this is a,

Jacoby has been playing at the starting QB position for the entire season so far. And now it sounds like they're splitting reps in practice. Watson is expected to return here soon. So that is a distraction. That's a lot going on. Obviously, it's hard to kind of stay locked in when you know that your job is, about to come to an end here soon after everything you've done. And the team is probably having to adjust to that as well as, you know,

this is our QB right now. But in a couple weeks, it'll be a different situation. So, yeah, I do think there's some distractions over there, some injuries as well. I love Tom Brady coming off of rest. I love what Tom Brady and the Bucks were doing before there by week. I think that's the key. Had that Germany game looked a little different, I would probably be whatever. And then again, with the Rams, they have been finding their groove slowly but surely.

And I think Tom Brady being rested is only going to be more beneficial for them. Do I like the number three and a half? No, I don't. I really don't. I hate betting favorites when the number is three and a half. But I do like what the Bucks and Brady are doing a whole lot more than what the Browns are doing. So yeah, I'm going to back you here. I'm going to follow.

All right. I mean, look, it's 18 points per game on one defense giving up. and the Browns are bottom four. The fourth worst defense in the league. And they just lost their center, I will say. So in a trenches, in a trenches approach, this is an offensive line with Cleveland. It's already down Conklin. It's, it's ugly.

So that could be a testament to why Chubb was awful last week. So yeah, I'm with the bucks. But what do you got for me? Let's, let's round it out with a hopefully another follow. Yeah. This is an interesting one. And I'm mostly chasing the number here, nine and a half. I'm back in the Saints to cover against the 49ers, which is probably a little surprising and or unsettling after watching what this 49ers team did in primetime on Monday night.

They looked incredible. They played to the level that I think we all anticipated they would be at before the season started. Jimmy G. was incredible. Their defense was incredible. But the Saints defense is also really great. And I think this as good as this offense produced for the 49ers, on Monday night. Their offensive numbers aren't anything super intimidating or scary. And I think if the Saints can play defense, which I believe that they can, they can hang in there with this 49ers team.

Also offensively, this Saints team has a lot of great offensive players. They have the ability to both run the ball and to stay in there with the passing game. Let's be real. I love Jimmy G. I think he's a great quarterback for the 49ers, but he doesn't have an arm that is intimidating to me. Now, is it better than Andy Dalton's. Yeah, of course. But I think that a strong defense by the Saints can be enough to keep them in this game, especially when that number is nine and a half. I think getting nine and a half points when you have a solid defense and you have the ability to both pass and run. I think that's a lot of points. So I'm going to go Saints plus nine and a half here. Also, in the last five, the Saints are actually three and two straight up. And when they have lost,

it hasn't been by much. So again, head to head, these. teams are pretty competitive with one another. So I'm going to back the Saints here. Nine and a half to me just too many points. You fade and are following. I'm following. I think it's sharp. I think it's a good call. Short week off a huge win. Nothing to really just quorum about for the Niners. But that was more just a letdown spot for Arizona, backup quarterback tough tough spot for McCoy and the Cardinals. And yeah, I mean, look, you're back in a team with great with great culture that doesn't give up. You mentioned it three and two in their last five. They look very good against the Rams.

This is just can Dalton not turn the ball over? I mean, look. I know. Serviceable run D versus a great run team. So I love that. Make Jimmy G. beat you. It's,

it's can Dalton take decent care of the ball? I mean, we've seen them in a Thursday night throw two pick sixes and a half against the Cardinals. And then you're screwed if you're on the same. So outside of that, that's my only concern. I love it. It's a big number.

It is a big number. Yay. We're in it. We agree big time today. Must be the holiday week. we're like totally on the same side. I don't know if that's a great thing or a terrifying thing. It's a little terrifying.

It is for sure. Well, let's stay on terrifying here and wrap it up with a. Would you rather? Because we have a quarterback change in New York live. Mike White is in. Zach Wilson is out. We all saw the presser. You want to sound off on it by all means.

But going into this week, it's Mike White minus four and a half with the Jets at home or the Bears plus four and a half. Which would you rather bet? I would rather bet the bears because they have a QB that doesn't have an absolutely god-awful attitude. I love Justin Fields, so I'm totally team Justin Fields. So for the emotional standpoint of it, I would probably like, no, in terms of preference, I would rather back the bears. But from an emotional storyline perspective, I would love for Mike White to start in this game and absolutely tear it up. I would love to see him just thrive and flourish and basically give an invisible middle finger to Zach Wilson,

who has the worst attitude in the world. I called Zach Wilson a Baker 2.0 the other day. Spot off. And it is proving to be more and more true. I mean, I have some choice words I could say about Zach Wilson, but I would like to remain PG and appropriate. I think he, I think his time in the NFL is going to be coming. to an end slowly but surely. I think he's not cut out for this league at all.

I think maybe the XFL is a good fit. I mean, honestly, like the play the way that he played and take zero responsibility is nuts. I actually tweeted and said how a player speaks in a post-game interview following a loss says a lot about them as an athlete. And everything Zach Wilson said, or I should say, not say spoke volumes about the type of athlete he is. He's weak.

He's soft. He's a pansy. And he's not meant for the NFL. So I hope Mike White goes out there and just tears it up. I think this Jets offense deserves better. And I think this Jets defense deserves better than Zach Wilson right now. So I think this Jets team is going to put on a brave face to the public and say he's our guy. You know, we're all frustrated, whatever.

But I think those kind of comments or lack their up. from Zach Wilson have got to be extremely frustrating. So I hope everyone gets behind Mike White and he feels support and he tears it up and he goes crazy and stupid. So from an emotion, I'm doing an emotional bet here. Would you rather I'll back the Jets because I really want Mike White to just tell Zach Wilson to shove it? Yeah, no, I hear you.

It's a tough, tough betting spot because I initially love the bears that I believe around five with Zach Wilson and now it's Mike Wyden, geez, to your point, this could completely rejuvenate this Jets offense and team. So you couldn't ask for a better defensive performance last weekend as a Patriots.

They're going to come in fired up and motivated and rejuvenate. I guess yeah, I'll go emotional with you. I'll take that four and a half swallow it. I mean, you mentioned the accountability thing. Fields apologized to the Bears defense actually on

Sunday because he didn't do enough on offense he thought against the falcons. So I mean, that shows you who the bears have. I love Justin Fields. I hate them with points here. He's cooking, but I'll go Jets here. It's their defense. Let's not forget that for the beginning, like the first few games of this season, we did not have Zach Wilson playing. Right. So to to, now I'm again, it is your position. When you come back from an injury, it is still your QB1 position. but like how bold are you to come back? And maybe it's the fact that when he returned,

they were on kind of a little wind streak there. And he was feeling himself and feeling hot and whatever. But like he needs a big old slice of humble pie. And I hope the person that hand delivers it to him is Mike White himself. That is my wish. We're in agreement. I love it. Well, we're looking forward to seeing how Mr.

Mike White does on Sunday. Let's get out of here with a fan to add here. Now is a perfect time. to download fan to America's number one sports book because right now new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000. That's free bets back. If your first bet doesn't win, just sign up with promo code Monaco. Favorite bets upcoming week. You saw it. I'm going a little nervous going to Tennessee taking the bangles lives on the Saints plus nine a half like that as well. Tons of options for you. And of course, you have same game parlay. You got player props. So many options. for this upcoming NFL week 12.

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