The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Blazin' 5
Episode Date: September 7, 2019The Blazing 5 is back and Colin talks with RJ Bell of Pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio about his picks and whether the Wise Guys in Vegas agree or disagree. Plus, Colin reveals a bonus pick not in h...is Blazing 5 in this exclusive podcast. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Hi, everybody. Welcome. Welcome, welcome to our Saturday morning podcast for the next, you know, 16, 17 weeks.
I bring out My Blazing Five, which I make on Friday, and then RJ Bell, pregame.com,
comes out, and he tells us what his wise guys think of my picks. So here we go. First of all,
my Blazing Five.
Let's blaze it up.
Fire it up.
It's Collins Blazing Five.
Rams and Panthers.
Okay, I'm going to take the Rams minus one and a half here. First of all, they were a very
good road team last year. They were six and two on the road. That's not an issue with them.
They travel well.
The second thing is they had the third best point differential in the league.
They didn't just win last year.
They beat people up.
They've got great personnel.
We paid a lot of attention to Todd Gurley.
It was the Cooper Cup injury that slowed the offense.
Without Cooper Cup, Jared Goff was not the same quarterback.
He returns.
Gurley now is back.
I think this Rams team is better personnel.
I don't think Carolina is necessarily over.
is a great home favorite here.
I'm going to take the Rams to win.
Again, Gough didn't play in the preseason.
I crossed my fingers on this.
I'm going to take Rams 28, 24.
Falcons and Vikings.
I'm taking Atlanta plus four points.
I'm betting the number here.
I get Matt Ryan and over a field goal.
I'm betting the number more than I'm betting the team.
Listen, Atlanta played very well last year at the end of the year when they finally got healthy.
They fell apart in September.
They had cluster injuries in the secondary.
They were a mess.
They have addressed their offensive line in the draft.
Matt Ryan is still a top 10 quarterback.
I think they have upgraded an offensive coordinator, and I get over a field goal.
Other thing is, Kurt Cousins has not shown to me in these big must-win games that I can trust him.
The Falcons had the NFL's fourth-ranked third-down offense last year.
What does that mean?
Keep the ball away from the Vikings' play.
Playmakers, I'm going to take Atlanta and the points to win.
27, 26.
Colts and Chargers.
I'm going on an upset here. I'm going to take the Colts plus six and a half.
I know what you're saying. Colin, no Andrew Love.
Okay, but I love the offensive line.
It's ranked fourth best in the NFL.
I like the infrastructure. I like the coach. I like the GM.
I like their corner upgrades.
The Chargers don't have their best athlete on defense, Derwin James.
Their offensive lines fourth worst in the league, according to pro football focus.
and Russell O'Coon won't play.
They don't have Melvin Gordon.
They've had a noisy offseason.
And frankly, I don't know.
I don't know what I get with the Chargers right now.
Listen, the Colts allowed the few with sacks in the NFL last year.
Jacoby Versette's going to have time.
They've added a wide receiver.
Their young players are getting better.
I'm going to take the Colts here.
This is a lot of points.
I think they have a roster that's not quite as good as the Chargers.
The Chargers arguably don't have two of their four best people.
players. Okay, I'm going to take the Chargers to lose at home.
Upset. Colts win 2827.
Steelers at Patriots.
New England has dominated this series, but the number is ridiculous.
I get Pittsburgh in six points. First of all, New England's not been a good September
team. They had a weird camp. DeMorios Thomas hurt.
Nikiel Harry hurt. Edelman hurt.
Josh Gordon late. Gronk out. No Chris Hogan.
I think they're going to be disjointed offensive.
I don't know who's playing tied end.
They've got a lot of disparate parts at wide receiver.
I know they'll be good late.
But in New England, I'm getting six points.
I think it's a very low-scoring game.
I think New England's defense was good.
It'll be better.
I think Pittsburgh led the NFL in sacks.
They've gotten better.
Last year, Pittsburgh led the NFL,
and I think they've upgraded their pass rush.
Steelers have the NFL's number one ranked
Red Zone scoring offense last year.
And that was without Levian Bell.
This is an elite offensive line.
The Patriots offensive line lost their center.
The number here is with Pittsburgh.
I'm going to go with an upset.
Now, they may not win.
I just like the number.
Let's have some fun.
I'll go Pittsburgh Upset, 2723.
Texans at Saints.
Like it?
I love it.
I think Houston's got better players.
I think Houston was good on the road last year.
I think Houston has a dynamic playmaker at quarterback who now has an elite left tackle.
Listen, the Saints have come off back-to-back emotional,
of their season. At the end of the year, Drew Brees looked tired. I think there's going to be
my feeling with Houston this year. They wrap it up along with New England sooner than any team in
the league. They were five and one last year. Texans were in six road games. Laramie Tunsell added
left tackle. They won 11 of their final 13 games to close out the season. Remember, they started
slowly, but by the end of the year, they were on a roll. And I think, I'm telling you, I'm telling you,
it right now. I think Houston's got more good players. I think Houston's a better football team.
I am going to take the Texans to win outright. Remember last year with the Saints.
Remember last year. They started slowly. Like New England, the Hall of Fame quarterback,
the Hall of Fame coach in September. It's an extension of the preseason. New Orleans, New England,
not great September last year. Texans win it outright. 24 to 20. Let's bring in RJ Bell at pregame.com.
By the way, Fox Sports Radio every weekday, one hour six to seven Eastern.
All right.
So I want to start with what I consider one of my upset picks of the week.
I'll take the Colts plus six and a half at the LA Chargers.
I actually think they win here.
And my theory is we're paying attention to the Andrew Luck retirement.
But there is a capable backup and an excellent infrastructure in Indy.
RJ, what I'm concerned about is no Derwin James, no Melvin Gordon, a significantly weaker offensive line with the Chargers.
Now, Russell O'Coon issues.
I think the Chargers are out of sorts, and I think six and a half is a huge number here.
It's one of my strongest plays of the week.
What are the wise guys think?
I'm going to give you agreement on this one, and it's a tight one, but here's why I agree with you.
I think Berset, one of the better backups in the league.
And now as a starter, not one of the better ones, but not so bad.
Here's what threw me about Berset.
I don't know. It kind of slipped through the cracks.
Did you call and see the new contract he signed?
Yes.
Because he had one year left for like $3 million.
And they signed two years for $30.
And I'm thinking, okay, 15 a year.
But no, the contract trumped the original one.
So they effectively, for year two, signed Berset for like $20.
$27 million.
On one hand, you could say that's horrible cap management, but boy, if I'm Bressett, I'm a static.
So I think the team is making a commitment, maybe overpaying in a way.
Yes.
And that's a good thing.
I mean, if it's not your money, right?
It's a good thing if you're a coach fan, you would think unless they could have spent
that money somewhere else.
So one concern about Berset, he didn't play that much in the preseason because when
Andrew Luck was out, they had him.
before the retirement, they had Berset, you would think he would have got more snaps
because, hey, here's a guy that's not going to be starting.
Let's get him some snaps.
He really didn't, which tells me they were, and as we know, they were uncertain about the injury
situation with luck, forget the retirement.
So now you've got this weird combination where he hasn't been your starter, Bersat.
He didn't get a lot of snaps.
So it's the worst of both where he's not the starter last year, but he's rusty.
So I would say this.
I am more optimistic about the Colts for the season than I am for this week because I do think Brissette gets better.
All that said, I don't like this Chargers team at all.
I mean, for five years, they've been the team.
Every wise guy says, oh, they're better than they seem.
Well, okay, it's five years later.
They're still not winning many games.
I agree with you with the Colts.
Okay.
One of my stronger plays of the week, the Rams last year, when Cooper Cod's,
was healthy, Jared Goff was an elite pro bowl level quarterback. We looked at the Gurley injury,
but the offense was really unsettled and never the same when Cooper Cup got hurt. He's back,
Gurley's back. Indomacan Sioux, which I thought was a negative locker room presence, is gone.
And I don't know what I get with Carolina, Cam Newton's health. I'm going to take the Rams,
the numbers now minus one and a half.
What say you?
Disagreement here.
Let me ask you this.
You said, Gurley back.
Really?
Would you, do you think the Rams would even consider for a moment if they had a chance to exit the contract as is pro rata?
You got your money?
It's over from here.
You think they keep going with Gurley at this point?
I don't because they paid him a fortune.
And unless he's injured, why would they reevaluate?
that. I think it was real uncertainty with Gurley. And, you know, in a way, it kind of makes the case when
Gurley got signed two years before. It was really analogous to where Zeke was, though Gurley didn't
hold out with two years left in the contract, four and five were left. Gurley would still have
another year left, you know, where it would be the team option this year. If they didn't sign that
contract, how much better would that be for the Rams? So it seems like all this talk about running
backs, how valuable they are? Well, one thing we know for sure is they're not necessarily
durable and these longer-term deals early don't seem like a good thing. So I look at Gurley
as a big question mark. To me, here's why I don't like this pick. It's one reason and it's
probably that simple. Gough had zero passes in the preseason. Last season, zero passes in the
preseason. How did they do the Rams in game one? You might recall Monday night, game one
And last year, after Goff had zero passes, they were trailing the Raiders, 13, 10 at half.
They'd only had nine passes in the first half.
So I get the calculation.
They're saying, yeah, maybe we'll be a little rusty for a half of a game, but we know
golf is going to be healthy, right?
McVeigh, I'm not saying that's a bad calculation, but let's take advantage of the fact
he's probably going to be rusty early in this game.
by the way, Thursday night football.
Two quarterbacks, neither had a pass in the preseason.
How'd the first quarter, had the first half look.
In fact, how did the whole game look on offense?
Ugly.
Now, I know Cam, I get it.
There is question marks.
The sense is there wasn't even any real question if he was going to play or not.
So if he's healthy enough to certainly play, he could be banged up a little bit.
But when you're a favorite on the road, you've got to be clearly better.
I think Carolina, you know, I think there's a lot.
not as good as the Rams, I don't think it's that far off.
So disagreement on your Rams, I like Carolina.
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We're in the middle of a game.
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I'm not worried about Policic.
I'm not worried about Balligan.
I'm not worried about McKinney.
My only concern.
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The biggest decisions.
If you're going to look at stats and numbers,
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Atlanta plus four at Minnesota. Last year, the Falcons were a Super Bowl pick for me and had massive cluster injuries. They are healthy. They have addressed their offensive line issues in the preseason. I think they believe they've upgraded offensive coordinator. This comes down to me is when you can give me a Pro Bowl level quarterback, a coach I like and over a field goal, it's very hard for me against the Minnesota team, which has not been step up with Kirk Cousins. These have not been great moments for Minnesota. So I'm going to take.
And I don't like Minnesota at home can be tough, but I'm going to take the Falcons.
The number here is what I'm betting plus four.
What are the wise guys think?
Yeah, we'll say this about once a month because it's so important.
First of all, agreement, agreement is wise guys bet numbers.
They don't bet teams.
Yes.
So, you know, that's you being sharp here.
The number here to me, if it's three I pass, it four I take it.
And that's the way, listen, very rarely if you're getting a four, would you take it at three?
if so, probably a sign of a game of the year level stuff
or a sign the person doesn't know.
Again, you've been doing this long enough.
You know the edges are small.
I'm going to give you an agreement here.
This is a tight one.
Here's my thinking.
Zimmer, best coach during his time as a head coach against the spread.
In fact, it's pretty shocking.
Zimmer, about 67%.
Literally just playing blind since he was a head coach, 67.
Number two was 60% and it's Bill Belmont.
The distance between break even, so 53's break even or so, 52.38.
But all right, let's say 53.
53 to 60 is plus 7, right?
60 to 67 is plus 7.
So the distance from the number two best against the spread coach, Belichick to Zimmer,
is the same as Belichick to average.
It shows you Zimmer's played or coached really well.
Why like Atlanta?
I do think it's an upgrade at OC.
I think Qatar, he was just a head coach.
right this guy's and he became a head coach because of his offense and i think guys that
stepped up from college you know not naming any names sometimes they struggle at ocee or head coach
i mean we'll look at arizona i agree with you that i you know there's a step up there for
arizona here's what i like the best matt ryan we talked about zero passes golf etc
Matt Ryan had a ton of passes in the preseason.
He was the highest past preseason quarterback, meaning attempts of any of the veterans.
So he made a choice, the coach made a choice.
We got a new O.C.
Let's not start slow.
Let's get crisp.
Not a lot of people are talking about this.
Advantage, Atlanta, agreement, Atlanta.
All right.
I'm going to take Texans plus six and a half at the Saints.
I thought the Texans played very well.
down the stretch last year. And again, they're a team that's not been step up in the playoffs.
But I think Laramie Tunzel is an upgrade. I don't think Clownie leaving is a huge hit to the
defense. I believe the Saints, Drew Breeze at the end of last year, the saint staff was telling
you that Drew is aging. They had fewer attempts. The offense struggled. This is again a number.
Depending on if you get plus seven or plus six and a half, I like the Texans. They were a very good
road team last year. I think there are certain things Deshawn Watson does. You can't coach against.
I think they win straight out potentially here. And I also wonder about the Saints emotional state
after that loss last year. They were still squawking about this a month ago. I'm going to take the Texans
and the points. What are the wise guys say? Biggest agreement of the week. Love this play.
Love it. And it's one of those things. It's in plain sight.
You didn't mention it, but everyone's kind of ignoring it.
The Saints early in seasons.
Now, you have Sean Payton.
Some people believe the second best coach in the league.
I think it's fair.
Top five for sure.
And they start slow.
Last 10 games that were played in the first two weeks of the year.
So five seasons, two games each going back, 10 games, one and nine straight up the Saints,
one and nine against the spread.
So when you're a team that during these years won what, like over 60% of their games, obviously the last five years of Saints, but there's somehow 10% in the first two weeks, that could be a fluke. Doesn't feel like a fluke.
Drew Breeze, hardly, I think he had less than 10 passes in the preseason, might be a little rusty.
You talked about it ended last year.
Now, the analytics guys differ on this.
Some say Breeze dropped off.
Others say he really didn't.
I don't know who to believe there.
I just know the offense late in the year
wasn't scoring near as much as you would think
they should or were early in the year.
Also, I don't know if that lost two in a row now, right?
Because they had the miracle in Minnesota they lost.
Now they lost through the pass interference.
It didn't happen.
Is this something where they feel beat up
and they're like, we're done?
Or is this like, hey, here comes our last chance.
I don't know about that.
I know the week early in the year.
I disagreed with you.
I would say drastically calling about the Houston trades.
I thought that for any kind of time period other than this year,
it was bad trades net net for Houston.
But for this year, they improved.
They gave up a lot in the future.
So I agree with you.
The Houston Texans are better off for 2019 because of those trades than they would have
been otherwise.
We take advantage of it here.
Agreement, Houston, plus six and a half.
And there are sevens out there.
Last night, a blown call changed the game.
This morning, the internet lost its mind.
Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened.
That's where Sports Slice comes in.
I'm Timbo.
Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies,
and the stories behind the headlines.
We go straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions,
the stuff nobody gets to hear.
The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real.
From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls,
calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered.
SportsSlice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them.
Listen to SportsClyce on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
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Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist,
Kear Games.
And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience
in the mental health field and conversations
with so many incredible guests.
I'm talking.
Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark.
Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing,
we get so wrapped up in the chase
that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing.
And we're still chasing it.
And we don't know when we've done enough.
Because people scoreboard watch.
Life becomes about wins and losses.
Steve Burns, Dustin Ross.
Because you find it important to be a good person
while you hear on earth?
Are you a good person because you're afraid?
Because that's two different intentions, bro.
Absolutely.
And that's two different levels of trust.
I want you to just really be a good person.
Join me, Kear Gaines, is we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway.
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What's up, guys?
This is Cliver Taylor the Fourth.
And on my podcast, The Cliverts Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff.
Like being an internet famous referee.
We're in the middle of a game.
This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me.
He goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her.
What?
Time out.
Quarterback on office blue of 42.
Hey, rep, my mama want you to wave at her.
What?
Hey, Miss Parker.
Listen to the Clippers show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.
American soccer is about to explode.
The World Cup is coming.
Ramos sending on to Ernie Stewart the chip.
I'm Todd Ramos.
I'm Tom Boe.
On our podcast, Inside American Soccer, you'll get the real storylines.
I'm not worried about Policic.
I'm not worried about Balagan.
I'm not worried about McKinney.
My only concern is what happens in the back.
The biggest decisions.
If you're going to look at stats and numbers,
he has no shot at making this World Cup team.
And the truth about the U.S. national team.
It wouldn't be a huge support.
prize if our team ends up in the quarterfinals or potentially a great run into the semifinals.
The World Cup is almost here. Experience it all with us. Listen, inside American soccer with Tom
Bogan and Tab Ramos and the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, wherever you get your podcast.
Finally, I'm going to take, before we get to our bonus, I'm going to take as a fifth pick,
the Steelers plus the points at the Patriots. I think it's low scoring. I like both defenses here.
I think the Steelers really upgraded defensively in the offseason.
Devin Bush could be rookie of the year defensively.
He looks that good.
Here's the other thing.
New England.
Nikiel Harry's not playing.
Edelman missed camp.
Demarius Thomas missed camp.
Josh Gordon got in late.
They've got a rookie wide receiver.
No Chris Hogan and Gronk.
I think New England will be fine.
But I think offensively, they'll be choppy early and more run dominant.
I don't think this will be an explosive offense.
And I think Pittsburgh's defense is good.
I don't know if the Steelers win.
But I know this.
These are really athletic defenses that I think got better through free agency in the draft,
and I'm betting a number.
I'll take Pittsburgh in the points.
Agreement, and I hate betting against Balochic.
I mean, year after year, there's one coach, and we talked about Zimmer has done so well in general.
But this is a different question, which is which teams overperformed their statistics?
because the math guys believe that the numbers, the yardage,
and all the different analytics will tell you the score.
Maybe not in a given game, but over the course of a season, multiple seasons.
Thus, you've got to focus if you're the team on those stats,
which will result in points and then wins.
Belichick and the patch are the only team that befuddle those statistics,
that they overperform their stats every year.
And no one really understands why, because if we,
did, we would incorporate those
numbers into the stats. Balochek
understands things we don't. I think
most smart people realize that, right? This is
a true genius of football.
It feels like he's exploited Tomlin
maybe the most over
the years. I've got to tell you though, Colin,
I was with you, with
the anti-I'm a Steelers fan, so it kind
of makes sense, oh, you don't like the coach as much
as you should because you're a fan.
Boy, this Antonio Brown stuff,
Tomlin's looking better and better, it seems
like, right? How did he keep
been under wraps for seven years.
So in a weird way, it makes me like Pittsburgh a little bit more.
You talked about the defense.
Yeah, Bush, great addition.
I think there's a lot of young talent that's just getting a year better.
They got Hayden signed, which, again, how many years did he got?
I don't know, but this year he's still a mighty good corner.
So I'm feeling good about all that.
I think the thing you said the most that I agree with is the old September is an extended
the preseason for the Patriots.
And if you look at their September
record versus their
December record, and you would think
I should be about the same.
Uh-uh. September by far
is down. It's all relative, right?
You know, Pat's win mostly. But in
December and January, even better.
If you're going to bet against the Patriots,
do it in September.
And finally a bonus pick
for people who listen on Saturday.
You know, I love Sam Darnold. I think Adam
Gays, Slavian Bell, Jameson Crowder,
offensive line upgrades. The Jets are a little bit of a
firework show this year. I think they have
major issues at corner,
but I don't think
Buffalo would be able
to take
advantage of that. I think the Bill's defense
is excellent and probably
underrated on a national scale.
I would take the Jets minus
three, but I do think
Buffalo is one of those rare
teams with a losing team,
but a very good coaching staff.
So I'd go Jets,
minus three against Buffalo.
What would the wise guys say?
Disagreement there.
Let me ask you a question because on our Fox show straight out of Vegas,
you mentioned it's six Eastern, five days a week, two understations.
I often quote you on Sam Darnold, but I don't quite know the quote.
It's kind of a paraphrase, which is there was some time late in the year that in the third
quarter there was a couple third down throws you saw from Darnold that made you
optimistic.
Yeah.
I kind of say it that way with a smile.
Can you explain to me what makes you optimistic other than your, let's say, personal like?
And I'm not, you know, we all got guy, you know, even if you meet a guy, if you don't meet a guy, you look at him, you like the cut of his jib.
I get all that.
What is it about Darnold that makes you optimistic based upon last year?
The last four weeks of the year, I think he had the NFL's highest passer rating with a battle line, no backs, a defensive head coach, and really no number one receiver.
I think they've added the second best slot receiver.
Lavian Bell and Ty Montgomery are both pass catchers.
I think Adam Gase had a winning record in Miami when Ryan Tannahill was healthy,
beat Belichick twice.
I think Gase is one of those guys.
Belichick and Pete Carroll got fired.
Gase is a good coach who just could not overcome quarterback injuries.
I think they're going to end up being a very exciting team.
I just don't think the special teams, downgrade, corners, awful,
so they won't be a playoff.
team, but I think they'll score points.
Yeah. So the only
thing I would say is, one, when Belichick
got fired by the Browns, it was like, what, five
years of going back and rethinking
what he did under Parcellus again in this case.
To me, it's rare to see a guy fired
for cause, you know, for underperformance
and then hired the same year.
And when I think a passer rating,
I never hear anyone use
passer rating as a sign of how good
a quarterback is, except with
this darnal talk. So I agree with you.
very talented guy.
I got to see it first.
And I guess we're going to.
I agree with you here last point.
I think the Jets may be overpaid for a few guys.
But since they had so much cap space anyway,
it doesn't matter as much.
They are a better team.
Jets are better.
I do think of running quarterback that Allen is with the bills
is better early in the year because they're not hurt right now, right?
They're going to run.
So I'd say disagreement.
But I'm anxious to watch the Jets.
Yeah.
And by the way, I'll say this again.
The Bills may have the best safety combo in the league.
Buffalo defensively is very, very well coached.
Last year, they had an egregiously battle line and no receivers.
They have addressed the receivers.
Cole Beasley's their slot guy they got.
So I think Buffalo is going to be, I think Buffalo and the jets are very similar teams.
I just, I think Adam Gase can be the difference at home.
Okay, RJ Bell, pregame.com.
We gave you our Blazing Five in the bonus pick.
Good luck, buddy.
Thank you.
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