The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Blazin' 5 AFC & NFC Championship Edition

Episode Date: January 19, 2019

Coming off his 3-1 divisional round picks Colin makes his picks for the AFC and NFC Championship game and RJ Bell of Fox Sports Radio and Pregame.com tells him which way Vegas is leaning on each game in this exclusive podcast. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise,

breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to Sports Slice on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok.

Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Clivert Taylor the Fourth. And on my podcast, The Cliverts Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me. He goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her.

What? Time out. Quarterback on office blue with 42. Hey, Wreck, my mama want you to weigh better. What? Hey, Miss Parker. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was harmed. you just understood.

That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Mark keep coming until he's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball.

So listen to Point Game on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. That's a hot one. Let's blaze it up. Fire it up. It's Collins. Blazing Five. Rams at Saints.

Rams, the number is the Rams are getting more than a field goal plus three and a half. The Saints are actually now more of a defensive story. than an offensive story. They've held seven of their last nine opponents under 20 points. Since week 10, they lead the NFL and takeaways in sacks. Yes, they are a defensive story. Drew Brees was not as great.

He was not last week. Yards per play of the four remaining teams, the Saints are easily last. This is a defensive story and they'll have that home crowd behind him and the veteran quarterback. The Rams though, have become a very good under

Sean McVeigh Road team. 13 and 3,000, the last two years. Now, Jared Goff is never as good on the road, and that has to be considered. Though I think he's the more youthful, stronger-armed quarterback in this game. With better receiving targets, he

will not play like he does at home. But the Rams are averaging 232 yards since they rebooted with C.J. Anderson. That leads the league, including the playoffs, since they rebooted. And there are a completely different,

defense with Akib Talib. It's not Aaron Donald or Indomacan Su or Marcus Peters. Without Talib this year, they've allowed 31 points a game, and with him, they've allowed 18. He was missing in the first game. The Rams are the healthier team up front offensively, with right now momentum with their running game. It will be close.

I think a call could swing it, but I would strongly suggest you take the points in the Rams at three and a half. I have them winning 27 to 26 in a nail-biter in one of the best NFL games of the year. Breeze probably outplays golf, but the better roster, the healthier roster, and the better running game prevails. Let's go. Patriots at Chiefs. The Patriots are at Kansas City. We know that Tom Brady is 13 and 2 under 40 degrees. And did you know that Patrick Mahomes five coldest games are as five lowest quarterback ratings. But here's something to remember about the Patriots, and we could all agree on this. This team has the least dynamic playmakers.

I'm not saying they're a bad offense, but they're not a dynamic vertical team passing the ball. Why does that matter? Well, look at their road record this year. 9 and 0 at home, 3 and 5 on the road. your efficiency automatically drops when you leave your home stadium. Even with New England. That's why it's valuable to have playmakers on the road. The teams that were good on the road this year were the Chargers and the Saints and the Rams in Kansas City and Houston.

They have playmakers, quarterback, wide receiver, and backs. Because as all five of those teams efficiency drops on the road, you need special players to make special players. plays. And New England does not have dynamic vertical players to make those plays. The coaching, it's mostly a push, slight edge to Belichick, home field Kansas City, defensive line and pass rush Kansas City, and weapons edge Kansas City. The Patriots' lack of success on the road is directly correlated to what hurts all teams on the road. Efficiency drops. I would strongly suggest This is one of the safest NFL playoff picks this year, and my favorite so far. Swallow the points.

Kansas City wins, 28 to 23. Mahomes is good, not great, but without the pass rush the Chiefs have, the weapons home field. It's a coaching push. The lack of playmakers will undo the less efficient Patriots away from home. The dynasty is not over. They've got 12 draft picks, and they'll have cap space. But this team, from Foxborough, is done by Sunday night. Hi, it's the herd.

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dot Robinhood. com. All right, R.J. Bell, who hosts the first ever national network radio show covering sports betting. That's weekday six to seven Eastern, three to four Pacific on Fox Sports Radio. You know him as the founder of pregame.com. Pregame's the exclusive odds provider to the Associated Press. Follow them on Twitter at RJ in Vegas.

So we know that I liked the Rams plus three and a half and let's start there. Now, first of all, you've always taught me bet the number, not the game. I like getting more of a field goal. I think with the Rams, they're a healthier team. I also believe they do not go into the game with a coaching deficit with Sean McVeigh. I don't think the gap between Gough and Breeze at this point. Breeze has not played well last couple of weeks, is that great? And it comes down to something really simple to me, is that I don't think over the last month the saints of the same team they were

in October, nor do I think the Rams are the same team. They were in November. I like the Rams straight out in a close game. It's going to be tough. What would the wise guys say? Wow, great handicap there. Here's what we're going to say. We're going to disqual. We're going to disagree with you, but at three and a half, I've got no problem with your pick. At three, I like the Saints. And both numbers are out there right now. Sure. Shot for that key number. I disagree most with what you said about the Rams aren't the team they were in November. So to me, I look at them after that Eagles game, right? They were 13 point favorites. Sunday night in front of the world could have put a stake in the heart of the Eagles season.

and literally they would have been done and they lose that game. In the game since, I really haven't seen anything other than the Dallas game. And let's set that aside because that's important that impressed me about the Rams at all.

And in that Dallas game, and you talked about it on your show calling, is they understood or had scouted the D-line calls, the D-line hand positions, different things. And then they ran, ran over the Cowboys.

If we accept the fact that that coaching, trickery led to that domination, then what have we seen from the Rams lately that impresses you at all? Well, Akib Talib didn't play in the first game. I think their secondaries more disciplined. I think in Dama can sue, I think the stars they brought on. But you're talking whole season stuff. I'm saying in the last three, four, five games. C.J. Anderson has added a power running element in back to back to back games. I don't think golf will throw 23 times. I think it's a power running team.

I think it's a low-scoring football game. And I think they've rebooted and gone back to what they truly are at their core. Now with a two-headed running monster in Gurley and C.J. Anderson, they're a power football team with some defensive stars to leave now available. He wasn't in the first one. Number one rush defense in the NFL based on yards per attempt, The Saints. Yes. That's why I like the under, by the way.

I think this game has played mostly in between the 20s. 56 and a half is the total in the game. Let's talk about Goff, his quarterback rating on the season 101. Pretty good. At home, 133 on the road, or check that, golf on the season 101, at home 116 on the road 82. Yeah. I mean, that's as big of a despair. The average this season for a quarterback was in the low 90s.

So Goff is objectively a below average quarterback on the road. That's troubling, I would think. And if you look at him, Goff, in his last three games against playoff teams, zero touchdowns, five interceptions in those games. You know, we can say it's Cooper Cup, we can say whatever, but we would have to agree. And listen, I got to give you a ton of credit. I was on set with you last summer. So 18 months ago, you liked the Rams, and I laughed at you.

I said, how can you like the Rams? So, you know, on the season, you were just playing right about that. But let's agree. Golf in the second half of this year is a problem. Do you agree with that? Well, I think he's still a very young quarterback. And I think like a Dak Prescott, like a Carson Wentz, you know, Mahomes is about the only young quarterback in the league that nobody's questioning.

Deshawn Watson. It will look terrible in the playoff game. So I think he's young. And I think what they're betting him now, though. And we're not talking about his career prospects, right? No, I'm betting him because I believe. the defensive personnel of the Rams is better. I think they have Talib back.

I think they have a two-headed run element that they haven't. And I think they're a different offense in the last three weeks. I think they are a team that realizes they're better when Goff throws on play action. They don't want to build around Goff now. By the way, Brady was a game manager three years in. So I think, but I think Goff's a special armed talent. But I do agree that at home during comfortable times, he's a much better player. But I think DAC at home is a much better player.

Even Mahomes has lost road close games. Much better player at home. We saw Andrew Locke, 29. Last week was terrible on the road. So I think it's symptomatic of youth that I think goth is just not ready to go on the road and drop 40. I don't think he's that player yet. Which is, I think, why the Saints are the right side. Now, Bree is obviously on the other side of the equation at home, 133.

quarterback rating. He struggles on the road, though it's all relative, with a 99. Last thing on this game, home teams in the conference championship round last five seasons, 10 and 0 straight up, 8 and 2 against the spread. So that's a, we can go before that and there's been some losses. But for the last 10 Super Bowl teams, they've all played at home in this round. Almost half of Americans make a New Year's resolution every single year. One resolution worth sticking to this year, keeping your home and your family safe. That's why I recommend Simply Safe Home Security. Now is the time to act and protect your home and your assets with Simply Safe Home Security.

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This is the game I feel strongest about. I like Kansas City. And it comes down to this. New England, teams are overwhelmingly more efficient at home. They don't deal with crowd noise. And there's a comfort factor. So New England at home this year is highly efficient and unbeaten. But when teams go on the road, your efficiency dips.

So what you need is playmakers. The teams that were good on the road this year, Ray Rams got playmakers, chargers have playmakers, saints have playmakers, chiefs have playmakers. Houston Texans have playmakers. Those were good road teams because your efficiency dips away from home, the crowd noise. Well, New England this year was predictably good at home. They always are. But they were shockingly bad on the road because they have a lack of playmakers. And so this is a team that historically has been able to occasionally win a big road playoff game when a gronk and Aaron Hernandez in his prime, a Randy Moss in his prime.

could make a play as the efficiency dips. I think they go on the road, the efficiency dips, they can't duplicate last week's performance, and they don't have the playmakers. And I think Kansas City wins by close to a touchdown. Agreement, strong agreement in this game, I got to tell you, and I say this sincerely to the listeners, that level of analysis, I'm here in Vegas 21 years now,

you don't hear it. I mean, it is good stuff you're providing calling. I know it's easy to say, oh, radio guys are, always trying to be bombastic. That's great analysis. And let's break into Brady with Gordon and without Gordon this year, who was the one playmaker. They took a shot with him. When he was on the field, 7.6 yards per attempt for Brady. When Gordon wasn't on the field, 5.6 yards per attempt. If Brady had played the whole season at 5.6 yards per attempt, he would have been the last rated quarterback of all the starters in the NFL.

number 32 yards per attempt. Think about that. Brady, the worst with the players he has entering this game. Because Gordon's not there. Now, who else could it be? Gronk? Last four straight games. Two or less catches, 25 yards or less.

So whatever Grunk was three, four months ago, he hasn't been that lately. So you take away Gordon, you take away Gronk. You could make the case of Patriots right now have the least playmakers they've had the whole season. Yeah. I agree. That's a problem. Yeah, I mean, they're relying on Philip Dorset, who's largely a bust in Indianapolis. That is their go-to deep threat.

And if you look at the Patriots, 16 straight wins at home. That's a whole season, right? On the road this year, three and five straight up, in those three wins, not a single playoff team did they be. And here's the amazing part. They could easily the Patriots have been 0 and 8 against the spread on the road. this season. They covered three times against the Jets. And you might remember the Jets had the ball third and two on the two to cover late in that game. They covered against the bills on Monday night, pick six late, if you remember, to cover that two touchdowns. And they covered against the bears

with multiple special teams and defensive touchdown returns. Literally, this could have been a team, the Patriots, that went 0 and 8 against the spread on the road. Now, they didn't, but they were that close to underperforming. in every road game. Kansas City, on the other hand, at home, their defense, 17 points per game. On the road, they give up double that 34 points per game. So a big, big home road split, I think, in this game also. Yeah, I mean, listen, we have the four best coaches in football. You know, I think our big disparity today is that, and I think it's, really the data backs you, is can golf play at an elevated level? Maybe not as home.

level, but he will be facing discomfort. And he has not shown the ability. I remember last year he went to Minnesota and he just, he unraveled. And he has playmakers. I'm putting a lot of stock in the girly CJ Anderson sort of double-headed running game. But your argument on golf where Breeze is a great player as a home quarterback and golf is a mediocre player as a road quarterback cannot be denied. And it gives me great pause. But again, you taught me bet a number not a game and three. and a half feels like a Rams bet to me. And also, you probably, there's probably no pros in Vegas

that will bet both of these games. And it bears repeating. If you're betting for fun, it doesn't matter. But if you're betting to make money, you probably can't get value on two out of two NFL games. That's like getting value on 16 out of 16 games during a regular week. Hey, last thing, Colin, a ton of talk about the weather.

I know it's trending hotter, but this is in the Kansas City venue, but here's a pretty wild stat. The five coldest games that Mahomes has played in his career, just by temperature, are his five lowest rated QBR games. Now, they haven't been bad games. They've all been above average.

But relative to his performance when it's not cold, he literally has had his five worst games than the five coldest games. So I know it's getting warmer. And typically if you're in the 20s, it's no big deal for these quarterbacks. and Brady is an all-timer when it comes to cold weather. But I would look at that relatively Mahomes struggles in the cold. God, now I don't even like my Chiefs bat. It's relative, though.

I mean, if you look at the QBR, he's still good games. He's still in the 60s. Yeah, I thought last week he wasn't great, but I thought he was confident. I thought Andrew Luck, the ball was floating. I don't think Andrew never seized the game. I thought Patrick seized the moment last week. I didn't think he was great, but I thought he felt like of the two quarterbacks, he felt much more confident, much more in control. Men, don't let your age beat you.

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By the way, I'm not an over-under guy on our little thing we do here. I don't want to confuse the audience. I do like the under on the Saints Rams. I think it's going to be a lot of running. I think because there's so much at stake, I think the coaches will do a little jabbing in the first quarter. They won't be hyper-aggressive.

had a pick on his first big throw last week. I think the game starts really slow. And then it's going to come down to plays later in the game. But I do like the under Saints Rams. So I think this is a pro tip. I think that's correlated with the Rams. Meaning if the Saints get a nice lead and golf has to throw, now you're in trouble because you might have some turnovers, pick sixes,

and you'll have some big plays. If the Rams can keep this game tight, if maybe even take a lead, now I think it's a more conservative. game. So if you do like the under or if you do like the Rams, look to play a two-team parlay, Rams and under, and if the Rams happens, if they cover three and a half, the odds are better, the game goes under. RJ Bell, founder of pregame.com, check it out. It's the exclusive odds provider to the

Associated Press. Good talking to you. Thank you. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear.

Listen to Sports Slice on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slical Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. on Humor Me with Robert Smygel and Friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to Humor Me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Cliver Taylor the Fourth.

And on my podcast, The Clifford Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me. He goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her. What? Time out. Quarterback on office blue with 42.

Hey, rec, my mama want you to wave at her. What? Where's she at? Hey, Miss Parker. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game,

the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was harmed. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis come in.

He's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.