The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Blazing 2 - Championship Weekend

Episode Date: January 18, 2020

Colin previews both the AFC and NFC Championship games with RJ Bell of Fox Sports Radio and Pregame.com to find out which side the sharps in Vegas are on and which information you should be looking at in each game. Plus, RJ discusses a Super Bowl bet that could be very profitable even though the teams aren't known yet. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo, and every episode, we're cutting through the noise,

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Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, guys? This is Clivert Taylor the Fourth. And on my podcast, The Cliverts show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me. He goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her.

What? Time out. Quarterback on office blue with 42. Hey, Wreck, my mama want you to weigh better. What? Hey, Ms. Parker. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season, and I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was harmed. you just understood. That's how personal it got.

Wow. Then after that game seven, Mark keep coming to her. He's like, you know, I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, everybody. Welcome in to our Saturday podcast. Two big games. That's it. And if I was going to bet on these, Let me start with Tennessee in Kansas City, RJ Bell, pregame.com. Got his hour show Monday through Friday on Fox Sports Radio at RJ in Vegas is the Twitter handle.

All right, I would take Tennessee plus the points here. And, you know, the line RJ, depending on where you have it, is plus seven. I think it's a good matchup. I think the way to beat Andy Reid is to take the ball away from Patrick Mahomes. I do wonder if Tennessee, you win at Foxborough or you go home. You win at Baltimore, you go home. Boy, we're asking a lot. It's a lot of travel.

These are tough environments. I think Kansas City wins, but I take Tennessee in the points. What would the wise guys say? Oh, I think this is a tight one. I'm going to lean Kansas City here, but, man, it is just a shade to KC. Let's start, though, with fatigue. You mentioned it. Yeah.

Four road games now. will be the fourth in a row. You just don't see that very often. You don't. And you especially don't see it where it's Week 17 Road, first playoff round, road, second road, and then Conference Championship Road. It's only happened twice this century, 0.2 straight up, oh, and two against the spread in this spot.

Now, you think, okay, Derek Henry, he's done some amazing things, 185 yards or 180 plus yards in multiple games. Oh, I haven't seen this before. Look at his carry count. 30 plus, 30 plus 30 plus hasn't happened in over 10 years. Yeah. Any NFL team. And what we've seen is if we just said, let's go with 22 carries in three straight just to get a few backs in the sample.

We got that. And literally on that fourth game, they are down the backs about a half yard per carry. compared to the season average. So I don't think this is just speculation. I think history tells us a back like Henry really struggle or any back struggles with this kind of workload. Do you see that as a big concern? Yeah.

I mean, again, I think we're just asking a lot. We're asking, you know, I think Tennessee is also going to have to take some risks defensively to beat Kansas City because, you know, when Sammy Watkins is your third or your fourth best receiver, there's going to be. be matchup issues. You're going to have to put pressure on Mahomes. You're going to take, you have to take some real risks here. I think Lamar Jackson was a much easier quarterback for Tennessee to defend. And I think when you take big risks against Mahomes, like Aaron Rogers, he doesn't throw a lot of picks. So I think you're going to see some gashing going on,

some over-the-top plays. And I just think games have to go a certain way for Tennessee to win. Boy, it's hard to get Kansas City to play the way you want to make them. play. I think they have a very unique historic level of the elite perimeter receivers. And I just don't think Tennessee can match up. Listen, I'm not sure, like you said, who can. One thing, though, I think it's noteworthy. Tennessee played earlier this year against Kansas City won. And who eliminated Kansas City last year in the playoffs? Tennessee. So if you think about it, the last two times these teams have played, it's been Tennessee winning the game. It feels like that's meaningful.

Oh, it could be, certainly. Listen, here's the way I always look at kind of sports. We have these great stories all the time. You know, a team will make the elite eight. A team gets to the conference championship. A team gets to the divisional round in baseball, the A's with no budget, right? But don't those stories all end genuinely before the world and before the Super Bowl. Like this Tennessee story is great. But I mean, we've got to be honest here. You know, this is Hawaii that's undefeated.

They go to the Sugar Bowl, face Georgia, and can't move the ball. We see a lot of great stories in sports, but generally in the end, they're overwhelmed by superior talent. Tennessee is kind of a one-trick pony offensively, and I just don't think they can win again on the road. And I think that's a very valid consideration. and I think it speaks to how do you bet this game if you do like and agree with you. See, I would not bet this game.

I'm taking Tennessee only because I think their style is the kind that keeps you closer to the under. But I give them very little shot to win. I just don't think they have the firepower. But if you're, I wouldn't bet this game. But if you told me I had to, I'd just take the point. That's a lot of points for a well-coached team. No, I hear you. what I would say is this. Whenever you're taking a seven point dog, you've got to ask yourself this question. Do you see it where they're down 14 and you get a backdoor cover or backdoor push or down 13 backdoor cover? Or do you, because no matter what, if you take a seven point dog, there's a chance they're going to be down 13. There's a chance it's going to be a tight game. Let's just kind of go within a range of a touchdown either way. To me, the question,

is when are you more comfortable with Tennessee? I'm much more comfortable if it's a tie game with three minutes than if they're down 14 with three minutes. Thus, if you do like Tennessee, I think you do look money line. Yes. Because in this scenario that you probably feel the best, it's a tight game late. Henry's running the heck out of it. So same thing I thought in weeks past you'll see this sometimes is the idea that if they, like

I thought this with Minnesota actually against New Orleans. I thought if Cousins was out of it, down a couple of scores, you probably are in a really bad spot for a back door. It probably wasn't going to happen. But if it was tight, who knew what was going to happen? Cousins would have confidence. Same thing here. If it's tight late, Tennessee has a good chance in a tight game with three minutes left.

With no pressure, by the way. They're playing with House Money. The pressure is all on Kansas City late. And they're playing their type of game. Tennessee would be. So if you do like Tennessee, I would look towards the money line. Hey, one last thing on this game for me. You know, I know we had some fun with Kansas City earlier in the year and, you know, disagreements. We've got Kansas City right now, Vegas perspective. The best team in the last five years of the NFL. Literally, last five years, there's not one team with a higher

power rating than Kansas City has right now. Last night, a blown call changed the game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered.

SportsSlice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to SportsSlice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kier Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and. conversations with so many incredible guests.

I'm talking. Trip Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you

hear on earth? Are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free iHeartRadio app.

Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. What's up, guys? This is Clivert Taylor the Fourth. And on my podcast, The Cliverts Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff. Like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker walks up to me, he goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her.

What? Quarterback on office blue of 42. Hey, Brett, my mama wants you to wave at her. What? Hey, Ms. Parker. Listen to the Clifford show on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. What's up, fam?

This Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano and our podcast, point game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves,

I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reed. He has to guard Julius. random. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night to night basis on offense.

And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash will get that thing. That man, hell get the flying. He running up the court, licking his fingers why he got the ball. Like, you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball.

So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, Green Bay, San Francisco. In 10 games this year, Green Bay was out game. Aaron Rogers was 9-1-1-possession games, one-score games. But as you told me last week was Seattle. Russell Wilson was having a great 11-2 season in one-score games. But Russell Wilson and Aaron Rogers' career record in those games, a tick above 500.

So there is an element of luck breaks in these years that you have tremendous records in one-score games. Green Bay has been outgained in 10 games this year. They do not adjust well. Frankly, they throw to one receiver. Aaron Rogers of the four remaining quarterbacks has the lowest passer rating. We don't know if Lafleur can coach. I like San Francisco. I think they create matchup problems everywhere.

I think they can beat you multiple ways. I don't think Green Bay can. I think it's a 10-point or more scenario. so I would take San Francisco minus the seven and a half and feel really good. This is one of the better numbers in the playoffs for me. Agreement, wise guys, sharp side, no doubt, San Fran. To me, Green Bay is just overrated. Yes.

I mean, this is a 10 and 6, maybe a 9 and 7 level team. And I know that people are going to bristle when they hear that. You know, let's start with Aaron Rogers. I had someone, I'll be candid, I won't bait you in, that we both know, told me on air that they thought Aaron Rogers was better than Russell Wilson. What do you think about that? Well, I think there was a time in his career. Oh, yeah, some hypothetical. When Russell Wilson maybe was in 10th grade.

Now, if you gave me the two as a leader, as a playmaker, as a quarterback, as a road quarterback, I would take Russell Wilson. Well, you think Russell Wilson is the best quarterback in the NFL, right? I think he's the best football player. I think Mahomes is the best quarterback. I think Russell's the best football player in America. Okay. And Aaron Rogers is, where would you rank Aaron Rogers one to axe right now as a starting quarterback? Four, five. Really? Yeah, I think he, look at his completion percentage, his passer rating this year.

His passer rating is the lowest of the four quarterbacks. Completion percentage lowest. Yards per completion lowest. I think he's But you still think he's the fourth best quarterback in the NFL? You know, he's in the four or five, six range. He's not Mahomes. I would take Wentz over him.

I really would. I'd take Russell Wilson over him. I think he falls into that. He's got some strengths over, obviously, to Sean Watson as a thrower. He's not the athlete. I don't think there's a gap between him and Jimmy Garoppolo. I don't think it's that substantial. Well, then it doesn't say.

sound like you think he's four. Well, I like Garoppolo way more. I like Garoppolo to me as a top seven quarterback in the league. I'm the only one that thinks it. I think he's a total gamer and a total player. I think Rogers is maybe the fifth best quarterback in the NFL. I think Garoppel's maybe seven or eight. So I don't think there's a massive gap.

You know what I don't understand? No one ever wants to use object. And I'm not talking about you in this case. No one wants to use objective metrics or measures. Like QBR is something. It can come from ESPN. can come from wherever. It was a very thought-out,

analytically driven index, right? Effectively, they try to account for quality of opposition, all kind of, you know, junk yards. The old school passer rating didn't, you know, was not a modern,

or is not a modern metric. QBR is. And the reality is, Aaron Rogers hasn't been in the top 10 in QBR in four years. And, you know, last, No, last year, no, year before, no.

And I just wonder how he still gets this rep that he should, maybe it's because he makes one throw a month that no one else can make. You know what it is? It's our mythology and fascination with a big arm. Greg Maddox is a significantly better pitcher than Nolan Ryan. Greg Maddox won three or four Cy Youngs. No one of Ryan didn't win any. Greg Maddox won his golden glove 18 times.

Nolan Ryan did not field his position well. Nolan Ryan threw hard. Same with Joe Namath. Joe Namath, more picks than touchdowns. But he had the golden arm. John Elway got blown out three times in Super Bowls, played poorly in another Super Bowl. He won, but he had the golden arm.

Dan Marino, the golden arm, but he was not a smart quarterback. He made big mistakes. Brett Favre, one Super Bowl. Again, the Golden Arm. We fall in love with pitchers that throw hard. And Aaron's got, in his generation, the golden arm. But he's not a good leader. He's got two collarbone surgeries.

he now tends to be a ball patter. He's a safe quarterback. He only throws to Devante Adams. He doesn't build relationships within that receiving core. I, like you, just do not see him as a top four quarterback in this league. I don't see him as top 10, which puts me in a minority. Right. But the funny thing is this.

If you look at the metrics that I value with quarterbacks up until about five years ago, So prior to five years ago, Aaron Rogers had as good, if not the best metrics ever. Yards per attempt is something it speaks to what you were talking about this week on your show, Colin, which was if you obsess over not throwing interceptions, net net, that can be bad. Oh, yeah. If you don't take chances that are good calculated risks, but you're worried about just that one interception. Well, yours per attempt accounts for all that.

Because anyone who throws short and just dumps off doesn't take chances won't have near as good of yards per attempt as someone that throws downfield. But if you don't complete as many, it really is a perfect simple metric because it accounts for everything. If you're willing to take risks, you benefit from long completions. There you go. Literally, five plus years ago, prior to five years ago, Aaron Rogers had the best yards per attempt in the history of football. In the last five years, he's been a slightly below average compared to contemporary quarterbacks. So all-time great to below average. And that switch happened about five years ago.

I don't know. I've never seen a switch happen so drastically. I don't know if he got hurt. We don't even know it. But the reality is Aaron Rogers went from an analytics darling to average really effectively. And no one seems to want to acknowledge it. Oh, I do. I did it this week.

And my belief is what happened about four years ago is that Aaron saw that Peyton Manning and Breeze and Brady, his contemporaries, all had more either rings or would stuff the record book. And Aaron doesn't. He doesn't have the Super Bowls to compete with Manning or Brady or the Elways or the Aikman's. And especially his contemporaries, he doesn't have the records of Breeze or Manning or Brady. But he does have best passer rating ever, which is. largely on efficiency and interceptions hurt it. So he became a very safe quarterback protecting the one thing he's number one in the league in the record book, which is passer rating.

That's a big deal to him. Russell Wilson's very close. And so I think he really is. He's always been very thin skin. Public criticism bothers him. He doesn't want to be an interception guy. And it's the one thing he's got over all of his contemporaries because it's not trophies. And it's not stats.

He won't be in the record book. History will not be great to him. He just won't have enough records. He won't have enough years and he won't have enough rings. But he'll have the passer rating and the efficiency record. And that has become, I think he's a little paralyzed by it and has become a low risk taker, which I'm not a fan of. Think about what you're saying. This is fascinating.

Is that somebody took a metric that, quite frankly, is outdated, passer rating and said, I'm going to reverse engineer my game to optimize my performance in this metric. That's what, no, I listen, Aaron's very sensitive to criticism. Has an, I mean, listen, it's been documented, quite an ego, very prickly. And I think he cares about public perception. I think he does. Clearly, he gets, you know, defensive when, you know, there's an article about him. When anybody criticizes him, he, you know, Brady doesn't give a rip about that stuff.

He never talks about that stuff. Farve never cared about that stuff. Manning didn't care about it. Aaron does. So I do think this is my theory on it. He's become a very safe quarterback over the last four to five years to protect the one stat he has over his contemporaries. Amazing. Now, let's talk about Packers outgained on the season. So you had talked about the number of times they've been outgained.

If you just add up, yards gained, yards yielded, Packers outgained on the season. Now, since 2001, there hasn't been a team to make the season. Super Bowl that was outgained on the season. Oh, and six in the conference championship. So six times a team like Green Bay now the seventh makes this stage. Oh, and six straight up when they've been outgained one and five against a spread. Oh, by the way, not only outgain on the season, Green Bay outgained last week against Seattle, even in the win.

So statistically, these aberrations, these fluky teams that overperform their stats, there is a wall. They don't tend to get past. Green Bay, nine and one in games decided by eight points or less this season. We talked about Aaron Rogers hasn't been the top half of the league in QBR in the last three years. You know, week 12, these teams played 37 to 8 San Francisco. To me, that speaks very well. You know, LaFleur and Shanahan have a long history together.

and I'm a big, there's been three different teams. LaFleur's been under Shanahan. I'm a big believer when coaches know each other, the superior coach has an edge. Yep. What kind of factor do you see that being? Huge. I think LaFleur is totally unproven. They're a lousy third quarter team. I think Shanahan is the best young, not only the best young coach, he's the best young

adjustment coach. We saw Sean McVeague sort of undressed on the Super Bowl with Belichick, didn't have a second punch, a second gear. Lafleur has not been a good adjustment coach. Very good on script. Get a lead at half. Do not make adjustments. Outscored last week 20 to 7 second half against Seattle's pop gun offense.

So I think it's a mismatch in coaching. We mentioned last week, San Fran back in the day, back in the Bill Walsh day, he's had a rep as a great home team. It's kind of faded. Well, number one in the league at home, point differential, San Francisco. And to me, here's the big. final question. Why did San Fran's defense play so much better last

week? Healthy. Well, see, that's the thing. That's what everyone thinks. But Alexander, key in that and the two others that came back, if you look at pro football focus, which is imperfect, but if you look at pro football

focus, everything is, any single metric, is they say that literally Alexander had a below average game and thus my question becomes if a guy if a couple guys return and they don't do all that well by our best metric we've got

could it be them that's driving the performance being more like the first half of the year which was outstanding for the San Franty now Fezic our guy at pregame dot com in the radio show he felt like it was more fatigue and then the rest helping because the buy

for San Francisco was in week four so all that time without the buy, they were tired, and then eventually then got to buy and played better. I just think we're all assuming Sam Fran is back to that defense that started the year, and I just wonder if the answer is Alexander's back, well, why wasn't his performance better? I'm not saying that I'm sure that it's a Fugazi, that, you know, San Fran's not back to where they were. I'm just saying it causes me concern that they were so average and they were.

26 points a game they gave up the last nine games. That's a lot of games. And to say it's all injuries and now they're back, I'm just not so sure about that. If it was fatigue, then great. That's another good reason, San Fran. They won't be tired yet. But that concerns me. Your eye test calling, did you see Alexander making a big difference?

What did you see? Well, no, but he's hyper-athletic. And I think he's like Ruben Foster, but more under control. And I do think when you come back for your first. game. Minnesota is really good, got very good personnel. And maybe they're a hard team to defend. They have legit tied ends, a good running back, two great receivers. I don't think Green Bay is nearly as difficult to defend. You know, Aaron's obviously better than Kirk Cousins. But I, you know, I think when you come back for the first time, you're rusty. Minnesota has a lot

of elements. You know, Stefansky's a good coordinator, just got a head job. I think that, you know, that kind of stuff matters. I think Green Bay is a much easier team to defend. Yeah. And I think San I'm afraid did a really good job. Nat against Minnesota. I'm just not sure that the returning players were the key. So I think we got five minutes here. I wanted to hit you with a little fun prop bat and see what you thought of it. Okay.

Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending. Opinions are flying. And nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise.

Breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories. stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice. On the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slicleaf 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok.

Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing and we're still chasing it and we don't know when we've done enough because people scoreboard watch life becomes about wins and losses Steve Burns Dustin Ross because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth or are you a good person because you're afraid because that's two

different intentions bro absolutely and that that's two different levels of trust I want you to just really be a good person join me Keer gains is we have real conversations about healing growth fatherhood pressure and purpose on my new podcast learn the hard way. Open your free iHeartRadio app search learn the hard way and listen now.

What's up guys? This is Clever Taylor the 4th. And on my podcast The Cliverts show I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff like being an internet

famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker walks up to me he goes, A ref, my mom wants you to wave at her. What? Time out. Quarterback on office blue

42. A rep. My mama want you to weigh better. What? Hey, Miss Parker. Listen to the Clippers show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. What's up, fam?

It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game.

We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson,

we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nass would get that thing. That man, hell get the flanks. He running up the court, licking his fingers, why he got the ball. Like, you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right.

Super Bowl generic. All right. So that means AFC, NFC. Doesn't matter who makes it. You've got your bet, right? You can bet this right now. Yeah. What would you make the line, AFC, NFC?

So obviously, as you're thinking about it, the four matchups, you know, it could be okay. The two favorites win. So it's Casey and San Fran, you know, Casey Green Bay. And then it flips, right? It could be Tennessee Sanford. So, you know, you kind of calculate. I would be very comfortable with a high over under, that I know. Because I think Tennessee has the least chance to win this weekend.

So maybe I, well, I would say, I don't know. I would say, I like San Francisco better than any team in the league, Kansas City, too. But let's just say, I'll say because you said AFC, Fessick loves the AFC. I'd say AFC minus two and a half. Okay, that's interesting. So you said something just a second ago, I thought, so you think San Fran, in a neutral field, right, Miami, San Fran versus KC, you've got San Fran favor. Yes, but I think Casey's second, because I think San Francisco's run game is formidable. and I think in a Super Bowl between San Francisco and Kansas City, the fullback, the run game,

Kyle Shanahan would keep Patrick Mahomes off the field for stretches. Okay, well, there's actually all four of the lines out right now, so I can give those real quick. Kansas City would be one over San Fran. Minus one. San Fran would be five and a half over Tennessee. Okay. Kansas City would be four and a half over Greenback. and then Green Bay would be one and a half over Tennessee.

I take Tennessee there big. Yeah, I do too. I like that too. So what we did is, and I tweeted this out at Arjane Vegas, is we made a $5,000 bet, AFC at Pickham over the NFC. I believe personally the line should be more Kansas City favored by two and a half or three over San Fran. and I would love, to me, you might think, well, RJ, why not just wait for, you know, Casey to win? It's because I believe there's a lot of scenarios that benefits this bet, including Green Bay somehow pulling the upset.

I'm ecstatic if it's Tennessee against Green Bay. I think Tennessee should be favored in that game. Yeah, so do I. So that's the first one that jumped out to me is I would take Tennessee and points against Green Bay. Yeah, and the AFC NFC bet that we made, though, was at Pickham. So when you consider all the different possibilities, if you assume the lines are Kansas City by one over San Fran, and that's the bedable line right now, San Fran by five and a half over Tennessee, and Kansas City by four and a half over Green Bay, and then finally Green Bay by one and a half over Tennessee. That's the same place we made the bet at, and you add it all up, it comes out to pick them. I personally think that in almost every case, the AFC should be a little bit better, and thus we,

made the big bet. But I think it's fun to think about the different possibilities and how with gambling, you could decide to make the bet now or later, but we kind of like the uncertainty now of all the possibilities because we think most of them, if not all, give us an edge.

I think a lot of people would have some very different opinions, and to me that's what makes it interesting. RJ Bellpregame.com. Have a great weekend. Nice stuff, bud. Thank you. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where SportsSlice comes in. I'm Timbo,

and every episode we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the biggest moments in sports and giving you the real story behind the headline. And we're going straight to the source, the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear. Listen to SportsSlic on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slical Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. guests.

What's up, guys? This is Clever Taylor the 4th. And on my podcast, The Cliverts Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff, like being an internet famous referee. We're in the middle of a game. This linebacker walks up to me. He goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her. What?

Time out. Quarterback on office blue 42. Hey, rep, my mama want you to wave at her. What? Where's she at? Hey, Miss Parker. Listen to the Clippers show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was hungry. You just understood. That's how personal it got.

Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis keep coming to him. He's like, you know I love you. dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.