The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Blazing 5 - NFL Divisional Playoffs & CFP National Championship
Episode Date: January 11, 2020Colin doesn't do an official Blazing 5 for during the playoffs but he does go over all four games of the divisional round with RJ Bell of Fox Sports Radio and Pregame.com and RJ tells him which side t...he sharps in Vegas are on. Plus, they preview the National Championship between Clemson and LSU to see which side is the right side. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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As I've said during the regular season, I get 14, 15 games to choose from.
That's why I have a Blazing 5.
But in the playoffs, there's often just one game I like.
I liked Philadelphia last week until Carson Wentz got hurt.
So here we go on a four playoff games.
49ers minus 7 at home.
My gut would be the line's right.
I would take Minnesota plus the points, mostly because I think they're
defense and their coaching will keep it close. I think there is some pressure on Jimmy G.
and Kyle Shanahan. This is new territory for them, a lot of pressure. I would take Minnesota
and the points, but I think the number is pretty much right on. What are the wise guys think?
A lot of wisdom, Colin, what you just said. A couple things. One, five games out of 15 or 16 in the
regular season. Okay, about one in three games, right? Well, if you only play one and three now,
you're going to play one game typically, right, in that range.
If you're playing three out of four, four out of four,
the only way to win is if the line is incorrect.
And you just said, hey, the line's right.
Now, if you're right about that, you could play the favorite,
you could play the dog, you're going to win about half the time,
but you're going to lose because of that vig, that dastardly vig.
So very important, probably the most important lesson for the listeners.
You can't play every game when there's only four games.
All that said, I lean strongly to San Fram.
to, you know, 49ers at home, best point differential in the NFL.
Wow.
Okay.
Yeah.
And I mean, you just don't get a, you're not hearing that conversation.
And it's only one season.
But remember back in the Walsh days, that was a heck of a home field advantage they had up there.
Yes.
On the season, 49ers have the third best net yards differential.
So how many yards did they gain?
How many yards did the opponents gain?
And it's interesting.
of the top nine teams, only two of them are in the playoffs.
This was a year. Dallas was the second best yard is differential.
In any one game, you can say, well, they threw for a lot against Green Bay.
But across 16 games, a season, yard is differential.
It's very meaningful.
I think we've got some overrated teams this year in the playoffs, and we'll get to some of them here in a few minutes.
Here's the question, and let me ask you about the 49ers.
First seven games of the year, best defense right there with New England in the NFL, 11 points per game they gave up.
That was number one.
Last nine games, they've given up 26 points per game.
Which deed do we see?
Well, remember, in the final nine games, they did play the Ravens and the Saints.
So you face some really good quarterbacks.
They also had injuries to deal with.
I don't think their defense is as bad as the last nine or as good as the first seven, but it is healthier.
My issue here is, I think the narrative is Jimmy G is much better than Kirk Cousins.
I think he's better, but I think it's close.
And I think the rosters are close.
That's why I like Minnesota.
Yeah.
So if you look at Jimmy G and Cousins, if you look at the QBR, which is a very respected
ranking, Jimmy G number 12, Cousins number 13.
Here's the thing about Cousins.
And we actually broke this research two months ago.
Cousins start time. When he starts at 1 o'clock, Eastern Games, an early game, typical Sunday.
In his career, he's covered about 66% of the time.
Wow.
No quarterback in NFL history across his entire career has ever covered that much, which says,
Jimmy, or check that, Cousins at 1 o'clock is better against Vegas spread than any quarterback's
ever been for his career. Now, if you look at the flip side,
non 1 o'clock starts, he only covers a third of the time, about 33%.
And no quarterback of any length of career has ever been that bad.
So Cousins is as good as anyone's ever been against the Vegas spread at 1 o'clock
and as bad as anyone's ever been when it's a non 1 o'clock start.
To me, that's probably worth three or four points.
And I mean, we looked at it at length and said, well, let's be conservative.
No, three or four points.
I don't think you can play Minnesota, or at least not with my money.
if it's a situation where it's not a 1 o'clock start,
so I'm going to lean San Fran.
What time is starting time for this game, by the line?
This one's 4.30 Eastern is the time, though local time, it's 1.30.
All right.
All right.
So Ravens minus 9.5 hosting the Titans.
I would take the Ravens here, and here's why.
When you look at franchises that have these kind of historic wins,
and this is arguably the biggest win for the Titans, it feels like in a decade,
I think it's really hard emotionally to match it.
And it wasn't only a win. It was beating the dynasty. It was Belichick, Brady, Foxborough. I think it's hard to fly back home and then go, all right. Emotionally, let's go. And not only match that effort, we'll have to be better this week. I think Baltimore is their defense is the story as much as Lamar. But Lamar is so fascinating. He's kind of taking the oxygen out of the room. I think this is one of the best defenses currently in the league.
so I'm going to take Baltimore to win here by double digits.
What would the wise guys say?
A lot of surprises.
I think people were going to be surprised.
I agree.
And here's the thing about double digit favorites.
It's nine and a half now, so it's right in that range.
In the regular season, it's almost always dogg or pass for me.
And the reason being, there's a percentage chance, 30, 40 percent, that the favorite is going to be a little flat.
They're going to look past the team just a little bit.
because, hey, they're double-digit favorites.
You never look past a team in the playoffs.
So what you get is a clearly superior team with total focus,
and those teams tend to cover the spread.
In fact, double-digit favorites, eight straight in the playoffs have covered.
Now, again, this is nine and a half.
It's not like we like it better if it goes to 10.
It's just saying this is that type of game.
Also, there's a trend out there.
You'll see different numbers.
A team that knocks out the Super Bowl champion from the playoffs,
tends to be flat the next week.
They're significantly below 500 against the spread.
By the way, that's why I've said.
Clemson over Ohio State was my college bed of the year.
Baltimore of the Titans is my one game so far in the playoffs.
I'm going to take my money and bet it on the Ravens.
Your point is mine.
This is about emotion.
I think this is a bad spot for Tennessee.
I agree.
And also, and this is something I think, I don't think I've heard anyone talk about.
I think you got to hold variable accountable for this.
Week 17, they had to win against Houston locked up.
They were in the playoffs, and they kept feeding the ball to Henry, fed the ball.
He had over 30 carries.
Why?
To win the rushing title.
Now, that was it.
There was no other reason.
Then he had 30 plus carries against New England the next week.
In his entire career, before those two games, he had one game with 30 plus carries.
Now he's doing it two in a row, and now it's a third straight race.
road game, if he's not fatigued, then why aren't backs running 30 plus every game?
I mean, this is the definition of Henry being a little bit, at minimum, a little bit,
I think, compromised.
And really, why?
Why?
The rushing title?
Who's going to remember that?
Now, last thing, you mentioned the defense for the Ravens.
To me, it's not just, oh, mid-season, it was an arbitrary start time that all of a sudden
they started playing well.
No.
Jimmy Smith, when he came back health-wise, and they got Peters from the Rams.
Now they have elite corners.
Since then, their defense has been outstanding.
So I love when a trend changes, and we'll get to that a little bit in Kansas City,
when there's a reason for it.
It's not just, oh, it just started.
It's like you can clearly say that's why the Ravens defense got better.
And really, maybe one of the best seasons we've ever seen against the spread.
And, oh, by the way, Ravens' first team to enter the playoffs on a
12-game winning streak since the undefeated Patriots in 2007.
This is a very good team, agreement, Ravens.
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I would bet a little bit on the Chiefs minus eight and a half.
First of all, it's Andy Reid off a buy.
You and I have discussed it.
Great coaches are often better off buys.
There's five or six coaches who are elite, Harbaugh, Sean Payton, Andy Reid, Belichick.
First thing.
Second, the Texans are kind of a talented mess.
Once again, they fall into a deep hole, right side of their offensive lines, not trustable.
And, you know, Deshawn makes a flag football play and wins.
I think this could get ugly.
I think Kansas City's defense has played great.
Had a lot of new faces.
And, you know, I was asking a guest on the show this week.
And I asked him, when you go to a new team, how long does it take as a player to figure out the defense?
And he said, you know, it's the second half of the season.
You want to be running, not thinking.
So I'm going to take Kansas City's revamp defense is really playing now with a great deal of speed over the Texans.
What would the wise guys say?
You know, we're all feeling pretty good straight out of Vegas that you've adopted our feelings on Kansas City, Colin.
Yes, I am now all in.
I remember right here, and it was a, hey, let's give Fazette credit.
He was the first in the country saying, hey, when Kansas City was 4 and 0, what did they have?
They had a defense about as good as last year and Mahomes healthy.
then about four or five games ago
Mahomes was healthy again
and the defense was better
because it was the first year with a coordinator
and if all you did, college or pro,
was take a coordinator, a new one
and fade them the first third of the season,
be neutral, the middle third
and be on them the final third.
That's it. Blind,
you'd probably win a little tiny,
you'd hit like 52 and a half percent, I think.
So there really is a bias to what you said.
and the irony is the marketplace gets more excited early
because they had the whole offseason to talk about the new coordinator,
oh, this is going to change things.
And then when people get disappointed early,
they jump off the bandwagon.
I think Kansas City right now,
I mean, in a lot of years,
Kansas City would clearly be the best team in the NFL.
It's an example, though, with Baltimore being so good.
You talked about Andy Reid off of buy in his career,
23 and 5 straight up, 19 and 9.
nine against the spread.
So very, very, very good.
Let's talk and quantify that Kansas City defense.
First 10 games, they allowed 24 points a game.
Last six, only 12 points a game.
Now, hey, competition, blah, blah, blah.
But if you look at the football outsiders,
DVOA for those six games,
the eighth best defense in the NFL.
So if Kansas City truly has the eighth best defense,
they might be better than Baltimore.
I mean, that's, if it ends up being those two in the final or conference finals, what a game.
Last thing, and I agree with you here, by the way, Kansas City, I like them.
Houston was outgained on the season, right?
More yards.
They were outscored on the season.
No team this century, all right, has made the conference finals in which they were outgained
and outscored.
Seven of them made the division round.
Oh, and seven straight up.
One in six against the spread.
So you can get so far being kind of a lucky team.
And remember, in close games, Houston's 9 and 3 this season, that doesn't maintain they would be the first team ever to be outgain and outscored that would make the conference finals this century.
Agreement, Kansas City.
Our guys looked it up this weekend.
They also trailed more than they led this year.
Oh, that game control stat.
Those are always interesting.
Yeah.
Finally, listen, I think Seattle's now a one-dimensional team.
they can't run. I don't think one-dimensional teams can go on the road and beat a team that has
multi-dimensional assets on offense, Green Bay. So I take Green Bay to win. The number at four and a half
is pretty tasty because Seattle, here's my thing. If it's close, I like Seattle to win. I don't know
if it will be. I think Green Bay scores early. Seattle will be playing from behind. They don't have
a running game anymore. So I think Green Bay wins. Four and a half, I would stay away from
this, I think it's going to be on the number. But if I had to, I'd probably go Seattle. What would
the wise guys say? Green Bay, and this is one of those games in which I had no opinion yesterday.
And this season, I've allowed myself, and, you know, hey, it's my 22nd year in Vegas, right?
I'm in my late 40s. I've done this since I was 14. I keep trying to evolve. And one of the
things this season I'm really happy about is you just let those games sit out there. Don't force an
opinion on them and sometimes it just hits you like what am i how did i miss this how did i miss
the fact that green bay has maybe the best home field in the nfl which i knew that so the line of four
wouldn't say these are even teams now you might say okay well both teams were outgained on the season
by the way this is only the second time again this century that two teams in the division rounder
later met and both were outgained on the season and seattle was only outpointed opponents by
seven. So, I mean, this is like Houston, except they got Russell Wilson. But you might say, well, they still have Russell Wilson. Yeah, Seattle is 11 and 2 and 1 score games, including the playoffs. That's the most in the history of the NFL tied with the 2015 Broncos of winning one score games. So if they win one more one score game, they'll be in some ways the luckiest team ever. You might say Russell Wilson's what's causing that. In his career, prior to this year, Russell Wilson was three games below 500 and one score games.
So did he just all of a sudden get great at it?
I'm not saying he hasn't taken a step this year.
It's not supposed to be 11 and 2 in these games.
And if he just lost even a couple more of them,
they might not have even made the playoffs.
So to me, Green Bay is a little overrated.
I think Seattle's way overrated.
The line is saying these are even teams
because Green Bay's home field so good.
I am starting to love Green Bay.
Last night, a blown call changed a game.
This morning, the internet lost its mind.
Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened.
That's where Sports Slice comes in.
I'm Timbo.
Every episode, we're cutting through the noise.
Breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines.
We go straight to the source, the athletes themselves.
Their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear.
The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real.
From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you
context and ask the questions everybody wants answered.
Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them.
Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
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Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist,
Kear Games.
And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience
in the mental health field and conversations with so many.
any incredible guests.
I'm talking.
Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark.
Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing,
we get so wrapped up in the chase
that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing.
And we're still chasing it.
And we don't know when we've done enough.
Because people scoreboard watch.
Life becomes about wins and losses.
Steve Burns, Dustin Ross.
Because you find it important to be a good person
while you hear on earth.
Are you a good person because you're afraid?
Because that's two different intentions, bro.
Absolutely.
And that's two different levels of trust.
I want you to just really be a good person.
Join me, Kear Gaines,
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What's up, guys? This is Clivert Taylor the 4th.
And on my podcast, The Cliverts Show,
I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff,
like being an internet famous referee.
We're in the middle of a game.
This linebacker walks up to me, he goes,
Hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her.
What?
Time out.
Quarterback on office blue with 42.
Hey, rec, my mama want you to wave at her.
What?
Hey, Ms. Parker.
Listen to the Cliverts show on the Iheart radio app,
Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.
If you're watching the latest season of the Real Housewives of Atlanta,
you already know,
that's a lot to break down.
Norsha accusing Kelly of sleeping with a merry man.
They hold and Kay Michelle back from fighting Drew.
Pinky has financial issues.
I like the bougie style of Housewives show.
I think it looks like it's going to be interesting.
On the podcast, Reality with the King,
I, Carlos King,
recap the biggest moments from your favorite reality shows,
including the Real House Wise franchise,
the drama, the alliances, and the team everybody's talking about.
As an executive producer in reality,
television, I'm not just watching it.
I understand the game.
As somebody who creates shows, I'll
even say this. At the end of the
day, when people are at home,
they want entertainment.
To hear this and more, listen
to Reality with the King on the IHard Radio
app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever
you get your podcast.
By the way, one more.
I like Clemson Plus Six Monday
night. I'll give you my theory on it.
You live in Vegas and you've
gone to Tyson fights. So,
For the boxers who had never faced Mike Tyson, there was this, the rule on Tyson was,
get to the fourth round.
He tires.
But the barrage and the intensity of his power was so much early, it kept even good fighters on their heels.
So Clemson played a lousy schedule all year.
The ACC's easily the worst conference, Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech all down.
So they really hadn't faced a roster, a well-coated.
roster of NFL athletes until Ohio State. And like Tyson, they were back on their heels for a little
more than a quarter. But by the middle second quarter on, Clemson average 7.4 yards a play.
Ohio State, all those draft picks, Chase Young could not stop them. No turnovers late,
no interceptions, few penalties. They were playing comfortable football. Well, now,
they play LSU, having played Ohio State, so they will be a much better team early with,
I think, a better staff and a better quarterback. I love Clemson plus six here. What would the
wise guys or you say? Well, here's the first thing I'd say. Is it true? This is a rumor that you
have a big Michael Spinks ticket that, you know, obviously didn't cash framed in your office.
I do not. No, you're, those Tyson fights, man. All right.
agreement, and I think you made it a little complicated.
I think all you got to do in this game is look at what the projected line was.
And these weren't projected like, oh, let's put it in the newspaper.
These were beddable lines.
So there were four possible finals, right?
So they had all four matchups on the board before last games, right, the semifinals.
The line in the Clemson LSU was pick them.
Now, what happened in the interim?
I agree.
I think you maybe even, you might downgrade Clemson a little.
bit off that win. I mean, it was kind of like, but still, at worst, it was,
they were right in it with Ohio State, and they won, so congrats. And let's be candid,
LSU looked as good as any team can look. So upgrade them maybe two points. And Brad Powers,
who does our power ratings, and he's done this show numerous times, he's had a situation
where he says, all right, let's give LSU two points. That's about as much as you can upgrade a team
this late in the year. And he actually downgraded Clemson one off the Ohio State win,
which seems counterintuitive, but Vegas is saying, what do we know about this team?
Now we didn't know before.
And he wasn't all that impressed with Clemson.
Still, this line should be less than three.
So six is just the public has gotten so excited.
The high's been winner.
They're blowing everybody out.
I think this line keeps going up.
And one of the great important things you need to do as a batter is decide when to bat.
So if you're listening on Saturday morning, my advice, we never know for sure.
You might be able to get a six and a half or even a seven.
Now, there's a chance you might lose points, so you've got to make a calculated risk,
but this is pure value, Clemson.
RJ Bell, pregame.com.
Have a great weekend.
We'll talk in a couple of weeks.
We'll talk soon.
We'll talk before the Super Bowl.
We'll do a show.
And next week we'll do a show.
So we have a few more.
His Twitter handle, as always.
Be careful that social media, kids.
It's a very, very toxic out there at RJ in Vegas.
and his show is straight out of Vegas,
six to seven Eastern on Fox Sports Radio.
It's through the roof this year, the podcast,
the ratings, through the roof.
Have a good weekend, RJ.
Thank you.
Last night, a blown call changed a game.
This morning, the internet lost its mind,
and nobody's telling you exactly what happened.
That's where Sports Slice comes in.
I'm Timbo, and every episode,
we're cutting through the noise,
breaking down the biggest moments in sports
and giving you the real story behind the headline.
And we're going straight to the source,
the athletes themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions in the moment, and the stuff nobody gets to hear.
Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
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Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite.
Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends.
Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.
This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer.
street or Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
Where does your group perform?
We do some retirement homes.
Those people are starving for banter.
Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,
or wherever you get your podcasts.
What's up, guys?
This is Clivert Taylor the 4th.
And on my podcast, The Cliverts Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds
of stuff.
Like being an internet famous referee.
We're in the middle of a game.
This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me.
And he goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her.
What?
Time out.
Quarterback on office blue with 42.
Hey, rep, my mama want you to wave at her.
What?
Where's she at?
Hey, Ms. Parker.
Listen to the Clifford show on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.
What's up, fam?
It's Isaiah Thomas.
And I'm C.J. Toledano.
It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast point game, the playoffs.
We're digging in.
to the biggest surprises of the season.
And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments.
If we didn't talk ever again, I was hungry.
You just understood.
That's how personal it got.
Wow.
Then after that game seven, Marquis come in to you, he's like, you know, I love you, dog.
You know, it's all love.
This was just playoffs.
This was just basketball.
So listen to Point Game on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
This is an IHeart podcast.
Guaranteed Human.
