The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Blazing 5 - Week 14

Episode Date: December 12, 2020

Colin talks with RJ Bell of Pregame.com & Fox Sports Radio about his Blazing 5 picks to find out which ones the sharps in Vegas agree or disagree with. This week's games:Titans @ JagsChiefs @ DolphinsCardinals @ GiantsSteelers @ BillsRavens @ BrownsPlus, Colin gives out a bonus pick not in his Blazing 5. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor? It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to.

Listen and learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 is big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors.

Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to our Saturday morning podcast. Last week, Blazing 5 went three and two. So I'm 30, 33 and 2 on the season. RJ Bell at pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio is around the corner, but first my Blazing 5. That's a hot one. Let's blaze it up. Fire it up.

It's Collins, Blazing Fy. Titans at Jaguars. I'm going to take the Titans minus seven and a half. I know there's a hook there, and betters tend to not like the hooks, but I'm going to swallow it here. I think we have a route on our hands. Tennessee is a very good team that was humiliated at home last week. You know my rule. Bet them the following week.

They did outscore Cleveland 38 to 3 in the second half. Their offense, though lacking what appears to be firepower, is top five. in the NFL in yards per play. That's a huge Vegas staff. The Jags defense is awful. Worst in the league, they've not held an opponent under 24 points since week one. Huge coaching advantage.

Tennessee, I like this as my route of the weekend. Titans bounce back. 36, 23. What are the Jags playing for at this point? I don't know. Chiefs at Dolphins. I'm going to take the Finns, Miami, plus seven. this game feels like all Miami games, kind of close and ugly.

We talk a lot about offense, but Kansas City's defense is clearly the second best defense in this game. The data tells you it is slipping. Dolphins defense is first in the league on third down. Translation, we'll get Patrick Mahomes off the field. They did that with Russell Wilson. Kansas City's defense is the sixth worst rushing defense in the last month that's gotten worse. The Chiefs have not won by more than six points in any of their last four games.

What I think you have here, you have a Miami offense that can run it, doesn't turn it over, excellent defense at home, and a Kansas City offense that sort of lacks a certain urgency. I think they'll win. But Miami games look the same every weekend. They are the best bet in the NFL. Nine and three against the spread this year, the Dolphins. That's the best in the NFL, and I like them here. Chiefs win, Dolphins cover.

Cardinals and Giants. Okay, this is the game you should bet the least on. I like the Giants plus two and a half. But the reason I'm worried is everybody likes the Giants this week. You walk into a bar. Hey, who are you guys betting? Giants or Cardinals? Everybody says Giants.

I think they have a coaching edge. I think they're at home. I think they are better than their record. And I like their defensive line matchup here. But I am concerned that they just came off their biggest win in several years and the world now loves the Giants. What concerns me more for Arizona? Kyler Murray, last three games, is struggling.

Their defense has allowed over 30 in three of the last four games. They've lost four of five and are a hail Mary from being O for their last five. And although I think Cliff Kingsbury did a very good job, brought some new things to the table during the offseason. So in September and October early, we all kind of fell in love with Arizona. they have not shown a second gear. The Giants are just getting better every week, and I feel like Arizona is getting a little worse.

I'm going to take the Giants to win, but close, though. The weather's like 58 and sunny. It's not a weather advantage. 27, 24 New York Giants. Steelers at Bills. Been saying it all week, I'll take Buffalo and swallow two points, Bills minus two.

First of all, they're a Hail Mary pass, away from being 6-0 in their last six games and they outplayed Arizona. The Steelers, as I talked about earlier today, are becoming so Ben-reliant. It's comical. They don't even attempt to run the football. I think Buffalo, and I was told this early in the season, and I didn't buy it. Josh Allen, outside of Mahomes, maybe the second-best young quarterback in this league, and he is getting better.

He is getting better. The Steelers, as an offense, are getting worse. Buffalo at home, they have the most. fourth quarter takeaways in the NFL, and why is this significant? They don't have a great defense, but it is situationally fantastic. What does that mean? Really well-coached football team. They may not have their offensive coordinator in a month.

Brian Daibald is going to get a head coaching job. This staff between Daible and Sean McDermott is unbelievable. Their GM just got an extension. It's a brain trust in Buffalo, and I like him to win and beat Pittsburgh by a touchdown, 2821. Ravens at Browns. Like it, I love it. I'll take Cleveland.

Teams are different. Some get hurt. Some get healthy. Some don't have an identity. Some do. Cleveland has found their identity. This is the two best running offenses in the NFL. But the Browns have only allowed six sacks since week seven.

This is the best offensive line in the league and the coaches have figured it out. If you go to week seven, the Ravens since then. have a minus six sack differential. Browns plus 10. Turnover differential. Ravens minus three. Browns plus three. The Ravens have lost four of six games.

I struggle with their offensive identity. Do they want Lamar to run? Do they not? Let's not get him hurt, but we need him. Cleveland is at home. They're getting points. They are the better football team. I said last week, they matched up very well with Tennessee.

I didn't know if they had the oom. the gravitas in him to win. They did. I do worry a little bit about their maturity of winning back-to-back games, Monday night football, Baker Spotlight. Will he go a little cray and think he's a... I worry about that. Cleveland's the better football team.

They've been the better football team since week seven. They have the better identity. They have the better offensive line. I'm going to take Cleveland. Biggest win in how many years, 28, 26. I think they're the better team. I think it'll be close.

It's a divisional game. It's a divisional rivalry. These games are all, you know the personnel. You're not fooling anybody. I like Cleveland here. In fact, it's, uh, I bet some money, huh? I'm not going to lie. All right, here we go.

Straight out of Vegas on Fox Sports Radio every day, Monday through Friday, 6 to 7 Eastern. Pregame.com, his Twitter handle at RJ in Vegas. Can you imagine 15 years ago if I said, hey, this guy's Twitter handle is, and you'd think, the hell is that? Well, at RJ in Vegas. All right. Let's start with this. I have a theory.

Good teams get humiliated. They always bounce back. The Titans at home sort of got humiliated by Cleveland. And this actually is a robust offense. They're actually top five in yards per play. The Jags defense, worst total defense in the league. Titans, I know it's seven and a half. But this is my blowout of the weekend.

I'm going to take the Titans. What are the wise guys think? surprisingly agreement here. If you look at the look-ahead line, so this was before last weekend's games, the line in this game was nine and a half. So there has been an adjustment, you know, upgrading the Jags in a way because they've been playing pretty decently for them and downgrading the Titans. So to me, the adjustments been made, and you said it, motivation.

And there's a trend we talk about probably twice a year, which is road favorites who are off a buy do outstanding. Now you might say, RJ, there's not a buy here, but what does a buy represent, which is focus, motivation, and they do outstanding. So to me, whenever you have a big favor that you know their motivation is going to be there, it's probably a pretty good bet. Mike Glennon's playing pretty decent, but I agree with you on the Titans. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged.

It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast, Superhuman, documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me. Clipper Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits. the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.

And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told,

and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to The Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.

Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with a little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jay.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so you all know. I mean, at this point, this is the second episode where we've discussed, correct. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now.

Thank you for finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapy. Careers, Kear Games.

And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it, and we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses.

Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on Earth? Are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, is we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast. Learn the Hardway.

Open your free, our heart radio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. I'm going to take the Dolphins plus seven hosting Kansas City. Number one, the dolphins have been a good bet. They're nine and three against the spread this year, best in the NFL. Their defense is not only productive, it's great on third down. Giving Tua, who doesn't turn the ball over, it may be a safe offense, but the special teams in defense, it's got a New England field to it. The Chiefs have also not won by more than six points in any of their last four games. This goes to a theory I've often had. Great offensive teams tend to lack urgency with a sense they can turn it on and off.

Miami may not win. I'm taking the seven, though. What do the wise guys think? Agreement here. I mean, if you think about Miami, this is New England South, and think about how the Patriots defense is done against Mahomes. It's been pretty good. It's been as good as any team.

So to me, what we've seen is that Miami acts as a bell. weather and a leading indicator oftentimes of how, you know, we saw it against the chargers, how will the pads ultimately do? Well, now it's going to be reversed. The paths do well against the chiefs. I expect the dolphins at least schematically to do well. Tua, there's a lot of talk about how he's been, not a bust, but underperforming. If you actually look at his DVR and then expected points, so it's some different metrics,

he's right around the 20th best quarterback in the league, which isn't so bad. And he's trending up. You know what isn't trending up, the Kansas City defense. If you look in the last month, it's been horrendous. I mean, literally horrendous. The only concern I've got, last thought, is does, and let me ask you, Colin, does Mahomes look at this as a way to smack to it down? Because this is a guy who's going to try to take his throne one day, perhaps.

I would like this a lot better if it was Tanna Hill. Or I'm sorry, check that if this was Fitzpatrick. because to me there may be motivation because it's another young gun. Yeah, although I did see Mahomes quotes this week. And, you know, he really tends to be kind of a guy's guy. Like, I don't feel he's territorial. I think Aaron Rogers can be territorial. Brady, we found on text during Deflategate, can be territorial.

Mahomes is such a likable one-of-the-guy kind of personality. I don't think he sees the world. I think he wants to play football, have fun, win games. and I think he roots for other guys. So I don't see that as sort of his DNA. But I think it's a legitimate question. No, and I think it's a good answer. And that even makes me, and it makes sense.

But either way, I would have liked the dolphins here, agreement. All right, this game concerns me. This is one of the ones I got stuck on. I'm going to take the Giants plus two and a half. First of all, I think they have a coaching edge. I'm concerned because they are coming off their biggest win of the season, and everybody loves them now. And I'm like, okay, now they're not as fun.

because everybody's on the Giants. But here's what I think. Coaching Edge. Kyler Murray, fewer than 40 rushing yards in three straight games. The Cardinals' defense is allowed over 30 and 3-0-4. Teams trend. I think the Giants are significantly better than their record. I think today the Cardinals are worse than theirs.

I'm going to take the Giants plus two and a half. What are the wise guys think? Agreement, but I have the same trepidations you do. And what I like to do is think of a post-COVID world. You walk in the bar and you say, who wants to bet the Giants? Everyone's like, yeah, they just beat Seattle. Yeah. And Arizona would be like, yeah, they're playing horribly.

I'm always worried about that. Yes. Yeah. And I think your instincts are right there. And I do feel like there's been an adjustment where this line last week was three. And coming off a three is a key number. It's the key number. So it has been adjusted in a way that isn't.

I think a fair adjustment, so I'm not worried about that. Here's, it's really a one-factor handicap to me, actually, and here's what it is. Is Caller Murray 100% physically? If he is, I don't want any part of the giant. But if he isn't, I do. And the thing about Murray, we all know running is important to him. He actually, if you look at DVOA and then QBR and say how much of his contribution is running the ball, He leads the NFL.

34% of what he contributes to QBR, for example, is running the ball. And not only hasn't he had a lot of yards, he hasn't had more than five attempts in the last three weeks. He's not even willing to run. To me, that's why the fact that he could still be hobbled, I like the Giants. All right. Steelers at the Bills, I want to take Buffalo minus two. It's really, there's an interesting number. We know Pittsburgh can't run.

fewer than 100 rushing yards, six of the last seven games. They don't even try now. It's an interesting stat I looked it up this morning. When Big Ben has been asked in his career to throw over 35 times a game, the Steelers are slightly above 500. When he's been asked to throw under 35 times in the game, he wins four out of five games. When this team was getting to Super Bowls,

they were not as Ben reliant. And so they win games off their organizational structure. But they don't beat good teams when they ask Ben to crank it up 38 times, 39 times. Now they're asking him to throw it 50 times a game. And Buffalo may not be a great defense, but they're situationally excellent. They're at home. I'll swallow the two. I like the bills.

Okay. So I'm going to agree with you quickly, and then I'm going to disagree in a big way on the Pittsburgh take. So the agreement here is simple. this is one of the worst spots for any NFL team this year, if not multiple years. You might say, well, finally Pittsburgh's done with the Thursday game or the Wednesday game. Well, actually, no, it's another short week, and that has a compounding effect. And to me, this team hasn't had a buy effectively. Colin has never been a team this late in the year without a buy.

So you could say, well, Tennessee, that Tennessee week, but they practice that entire week. and a buy is about not even having to come into the facility. So I think it's a real bad spot for Pittsburgh. So I agree with you. But I'm going to, I was listening this week and boy, I disagree. First of all, you had Pittsburgh, what, eighth? Is that right? Oh, come on.

I'd like to get those other seven teams that even pick them, the Steelers. I'd be loving that. But I'll say this is if you actually look at what the Steelers are doing, and I think Tomlin gave it away in the press conference after the Washington game, he said, I don't care about how many times we, run the ball. I care about the way that we're progressing through the defense. And I believe, and you said it, they're not even trying to run the ball. You know why? Because the O line against the rush or for the rush is actually number 30 by football outsiders, but they're number one

against the pass or when they're passing. And I believe that this is like New England a year or two ago. When Brady effectively, the short passes, were the runs, and Big Ben is getting the ball out the quickest, if you look at next-gen stats of any quarterback in the NFL. He's number one releasing the ball. He's not taking hits. So when you say you don't want Big Ben passing a lot, I believe that historically has been true. This is a different kind of offense. One last thing, you talked about that stat, how many times he passed? That's cause and effect, I believe. Whereas back in the day, it was a situation he would only throw that much when they were far behind, and that's they were going to lose a lot of those

games, but now they're throwing that much every game. I don't think it's really as predictive. So I'm optimistic about Pittsburgh in general more than you, but I agree with you. It's such a bad spot, Buffalo. Okay, more with RJ Bell talking about the wise guys and my Blazing Five right after this. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast, Superhuman, documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.

Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball. basketball to college football or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.

And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger.

So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right what you need to be. Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-taped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people.

I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do a little kill? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack.

I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really?

Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, care games. And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests.

I'm talking. Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing and we're still chasing it and we don't know when we've done enough because people scoreboard watch.

Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth? Are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person.

Join me, Keir Gaines, is we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose. On my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free, Our Heart Radio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. This is actually a weird territory for me, RJ Bell. because I think my favorite bet of the week is Cleveland plus two and a half at the Ravens. So let's start with this. The Ravens have lost four of six games.

If you go to the Ravens in Browns since week seven, Cleveland's a five and one football team with a plus 10 sack differential. The Ravens are a two and four team with a minus six sack differential. One team now, I believe Cleveland has the best offensive line and identity they've ever had. Baltimore still, I don't think it's comfortable throwing the ball. It's going to be a quick game, the number one and two rushing offenses. So turn in early. It'll be three hours and it'll be over.

But I think this morning, Cleveland has more of a clear identity, is a better football team, and I'm going to take the points here. I agree. And I have one real concern, but let's go over the good things. If you look at the trend line on DVOA, they actually, the Browns are plus five slots recently compared to in the past, if you look at the whole season, and if it's weighted recently, and there's only one other team that's better than plus two.

So not only are they the hottest team, but they're the hottest team by far. So let's give credit to, you know, it could be recency buys, but this team's just playing better. Yeah. Number two, I believe that Dallas game was the season. It looks like that, oh, Baltimore's back, everything's fine. That defense is so undisciplined with Dallas that the Baltimore attack, which you're not familiar with out of conference.

And remember, being familiar with what the Ravens are doing is vital. Well, Browns playing twice a year every year. So to me, Dallas, undisciplined Browns have, they're familiar with it. Lamar, you talked about his passing, QBR number 22 in the NFL. This guy's not passing the ball particularly well. And if you look at the Ravens defense, literally in the last month, expected points, it's going to be hard to believe, number 28, the Ravens D number 28 out of 32 teams. Wow. Here's the one thing that concerns me. I would never guess that.

No, but if you actually look at the scores, and again, the way expected points is it's not all about the scoreboard. it's really about each play being graded individually. But I'm telling you, the stats were eye-popping against the Ravens D. Here's my one concern. Baker Mayfield is great when he can set his feet and throw to his first read. So when is that? That's typically if he's not getting a lot of pressure. And typically if the defense is not complex.

Well, the Ravens actually have a very complex defense, and we saw in the first game, oh, did he struggle? So that would be a big concern, except if you go back and look at Baker's prior games in prior years against the Ravens, he's actually done pretty well. So as much as I hate the stinker he laid opening week, I think in general he's been fine against the Ravens D. Thus, I got a big agreement here on the Browns. So these are the five games I liked. There were other games I looked at, but I'm just going to throw this out because it's a learning experience. When we do this, I do my blazing five picks.

Often with the bonus, R.J, I put a game out there that I don't have as strong a feeling, but I want you to teach me something. Because this is what you do for a living. So I would take the Chargers plus two and a half. It's a talented team that got absolutely humiliated. So it goes to a very predictable position I have a lot. It's why I like the Titans this week. Even though I don't love the number, I think they're a really good team. And I don't think the Jags are good enough offensively.

not worried about it. So I would take the Chargers being humiliated. But then here's why I don't bet this game because I watched Anthony, Anthony Lynn after the game and I watched him this week. I think I thought he was weak after the game. I thought he was weak this week and I think players can sense it's over for him. And I just, I don't think they'll rally for him. I worry about that. So I do think humiliated teams, men, you know, Trent Dilfer always told me, everybody in the NFL acts the same

after a loss. How do you act after you win? That's my concern with Cleveland this week. But tell me how the odds makers and wise guys think about this with a coach that is lame duck in big trouble off a horrible loss, but clearly L.A. at home

is a more talented team and I would take the two and a half. I disagree on, you know, I wouldn't lean towards the chargers. And to me, here's an adage with professional betters in Vegas. And it's been over 20 years now in Vegas for me. So at least by osmosis, a minimum, is take the underdog, all things equal. Also take the team that looked the worst, all things equal.

So that's why the flip side of the giants, that concerns me because they look good and everyone knows it. But here's the caveat. Because that would follow with your charges. Yes, yes. If a team has got motivational issues, nothing can trump that. Nothing can. Okay, so that is a huge caveat. That is the Trump card NFL betting.

And if you think about it when a team isn't there, I mean, think about the way the Cowboys played against Arizona on that Monday night. It was like they weren't in the game, their heads weren't, and they just got ran off the field. And that happens. It really does. I think the Bears are a team this week that I question even their defense at this point. So with Anthony Lynn, I think not only is he a lame duck, but these players feel like money's being taken out of their pocket.

You know, you talk to many more NFL guys than me, but when you listen to them, it really is about the next or the next contract, which it should be. It's their job. And I believe there's going to be resentment there. And not to mention the fact that if you look at it and think about, in general, even before that demolition against the Patriots, is the charges haven't been playing as well. It's like the trend line's been going down a little bit. The last two weeks, they've not played well. And last couple quick things here. One is, you know, I think Morris still has a chance to get that job. So the motivation should be there with the Falcons. That's really good.

That's really, you have a coach playing for his job and a coach that's lame duck. I didn't even, you know what, I didn't even think of that. Yeah, and last thing I'd say is I think Atlanta's look bad because they've played the Saints twice in the last month. And to me, the stats and all are going to be skewed because of that. And again, the Saints are just really good. Yeah. You know, I've told you, everybody has a team. Atlanta's my Bermuda Triangle.

My money disappears. Now, now the Rams, last night I would have taken New England of the points, but the Rams have probably been six and two or six and three this year. Is there, I always feel like there's a team every year. I kind of feel them and a team I don't. I just can't bet Atlanta. Is there a team sometimes that you really feel strongly about knowing what they are and what they're not? Yes. The thing, though, that is always the most frustrating is when you keep having to bet the same team that loses.

Because the theory is when a team, and here's where most gamblers, sports betters make a big mistake. If you bet a team and they lose against the spread, but you feel like you're, you were right about the pick, you should be inclined even more so to bet them next week. Right. Because the theory is the market saw them lose. Everyone that lost is going to be less inclined or most everyone to bet them again. And that's why when there's a team on a five-game ATS losing streak, it's not just everyone knows their own five.

It's people have lost money on them. And people don't like to lose money a second or a third time, no way. And even a guy like Fesick, a guy who's a professional, he's one of a. of the top professionals, works for us, is he will not bet that team the third game. And I'm like, you're so square. If you like him better, he just psychologically can't do it. And thus, to me, it's one of those situations, the syndicates, the ones that bet a hundred thousand a game, they don't care. And it's funny, Atlanta, I would say in the last three years, Colin, Atlanta has been bet more by professional batters, the syndicates, in any team of the NFL.

and they had, because their stats have been better than their record pretty much every year. And you know what? They still haven't paid off at least over the long term. Yeah, yeah, believe me, I know. RJ Bell, good stuff, good learning experience for all of us in the Saturday podcast. Thanks, man. Thank you. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite.

Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's My... Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter.

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documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hardweight with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that's really not safe to have anywhere, but you have having him with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing.

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Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.