The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Blazing 5 - Week 15

Episode Date: December 19, 2020

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This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.

Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host, Kear Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere, but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor? It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that does not mean that you need to.

Listen and learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversation.

with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hi, everybody, and welcome once again to our Saturday morning podcast last week, another winning week three and two. Although, I knew I should have taken Baltimore on Monday night. That's what the smart guys did. I messed up. But I'm only a couple games under 500 on the season. I've never had a losing season.

I feel great about the picks this week. Before I get to RJ Bell at pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio, here's my blazing five picks. That's a hot one. Let's blaze it up. Fire it up. It's Collins Blazing Five. Bills at Broncos. I'm going to take Denver plus six. I am concerned about their injuries at cornerback, but this is a perfect letdown spot for Buffalo. Josh Allen first trip to mile high. The bills have been several big emotional wins. Now they go west.

Second cross-country trip in the last few weeks. Denver has a really good defensive coach. And Josh Allen can make mistakes. They're top 10 in everything that matters. Top two and past touchdowns allowed. Top seven in sacks. Drew Locke, last couple of weeks, appears to have at least stabilized.

Don't love him, but he's stabilized. And the Broncos, by the way, second best against the spread bet in the league to Miami. I think Buffalo so well coach probably figures out a way to win, but I'm taking the points with Denver, 2623 bills. Patriots and Dolphins. Everybody, I'm going to take Miami minus one and a half. Here's what I hear.

What about Tua against Belichick? What about Cam Newton against this defense? Which is to me the first or second best defense in the NFL. Miami is second points per game. First and takeaways. Third down first. Passer rating third. What about Cam?

No weapons and that? Listen, Brian Flores is the perfect coach for Tua in this game because young quarterback struggle with Belichick. Flores is going to go, kid, I was with him for seven years. This is what you're going to see. And Tua doesn't make mistakes. Now, he may not have the talent of a Josh Allen or a Joe Burrell or Herbert, but he doesn't make any mistakes.

Nine TDs, one pick this year. He's very safe. I get a better team. I get a better defense. I get a great young coach. I get a team playing for more. Miami wins this game 2420, and we all know a Patriots stink late in the year at Miami. Seahawks and Washington.

I'm going to take Washington. The lines moved a bit here. I'll take Washington plus five and a half. Seahawks last nine games have covered the spread three times. Why? They're overvalued. Their offensive line is the weak point, and the defensive line for Washington is the strength.

I think this game gets really ugly. I think this game is also about Ron Rivera. Early in the year, he was taking cancer treatments, energy. It was different. He's out of that. He's more robust and dynamic. This team is now in a four-game winning streak. And during that streak, they're number one in the league in point differential.

They're number two in turnover differential. Ron Rivera is now working. Folks, in this four-game winning streak, they're allowing 14 a game. They've also got four players with five sacks. It's not just Chase Young. I think the Washington defensive front against Seattle's ultimate liability makes for a low-scoring, very ugly game.

Again, Russell Wilson tends to figure out a way to win these games on the East Coast late. Seattle wins 21-20, but I like Washington and the points here. Eagles and Cardinals. I told you last week, bet less on the Giants Arizona. That was my least favorite pick. That was my, and I was right, I was wrong on that.

This is my least favorite pick. So bet less, but I'm going to take Arizona minus six and a half at home against Philadelphia. Here's why. If you look at what Philadelphia did last week to Arizona, to New Orleans, the Saints were guessing. They had no idea what they were going to get. Arizona knows exactly what they're going to get with Jalen Hurts because they see it every day at practice. It's a better version. It's called Kyler Murray.

They're very used to practicing and seeing a highly athletic quarterback. By the way, Philadelphia allows quarterbacks that run to have success. Philadelphia's defense has four picks all year. Translation, Kyler Murray will be comfortable. Vegas likes Philadelphia, but I think in Arizona team, it's very, Arizona is becoming easy to predict. When Kyler's Healthy and can run, they beat the bills. They're good.

They dominated the Giants. Kyler's Healthy is going to be moving. I like him here against Philadelphia to win in cover. 2820. Chiefs at Saints. Like it. I love it. Saints is my bet of the week.

Now, the line's going to be all over the place. I bet it Monday. I got the Saints at 4. Breeze is now the starter. The number will probably come. crashing down and you won't get the number I got, but I got Saints plus three and a half, and I love the pick. First of all, right now, the Chief's Red Zone defense is not good.

The Chief's red zone offense is not good. Buffalo's is, by the way. What does that tell me? Is that the Chiefs are allowing touchdowns, not field goals on defense, and they're scoring more field goals than touchdown on offense. I think the Saints defense is one of two, the Rams the other, allowing less than 300-yard a game. This Saints defense is really

the story of this team. It's not Peyton. It's not Breast. This is a great roster and a great defense. And Drew Breeze was always ready to play this week. Kansas City was preparing for Taysam Hill. Uh-oh. Not going to play. I like

the Saints still fighting for the number one seed to win it. 28, 27. There you go, my Blazing Five. All of our Blazing Five picks. Check out the Fox bet social platforms. We welcome in RJ Bell. Been doing this for years. His Twitter account at RJ R.J. in Vegas. Straight out of Vegas is on Fox Sports Radio 6 to 7 Eastern every day. All right. I'm going to go with Denver plus six against the bills. The bills have been in several big emotional games back to back. It's their second cross-country trip in the last couple of weeks. And let's be

honest about Denver. Their defense with Vic Fangio, is pretty darn good. Top 10 in sacks, passing yards allowed, and opposer, passer rating. And the Broncos have actually been second best against the spread this year only to the dolphins. So I don't know if they win, but I like the number now at Denver plus six high altitude against Buffalo. What are the wise guys think?

I'm going to give you agreement, but I got a big caveat with injuries. But let's talk about the good reasons you're laying out, Colin, because I think you're points are very well-spoken. One, this is a likely let-down spot for the bills. After the Steelers game, there was a real sense of redemption because Pittsburgh is a team that gets a lot of love and the bills haven't gotten love. There was some talk about Schuster was on their emblem or something. I mean, it was a real focused game for the bills on national TV.

This is a typical let-down spot. They're traveling, like you said. and at altitude in theory, fatigue is going to be a big factor. Also, Drew Locke, this is slipping by most people. His last three games, his QBR average, has been 78. Now, on the season, if he had done that, he'd be the fourth best quarterback in the league. But in seven games prior to those most recent three, his QBR is 33, which would be last in the league. So literally for seven games, he was the worst.

quarterback in the league. He's getting better. Well, he's more than that. And I think what's been deceiving and obscured it to some degree is that no quarterback game was right smack in the middle of that when he was out with the COVID scare. So people aren't as on top of Drew Locke as they should be. Now, here's the concern. Denver typically very good against the pass, but they have five cornerbacks they've lost in the last three weeks. There's only three. Three corners left on their roster. And now check this out. One of them, they signed last week.

One is a rookie. And one has already been cut this season. So no one with any pedigree against the bills. So I think if Denver can keep it close, it's going to be a high-scoring game. I would have loved this, if not for the quarterback injuries, but still agreement. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me. Clipper Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skis. hits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show.

This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right what you need to be. Listen to The Clifford show on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.

Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with a little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick it here, unpack what went down,

and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84's big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so you're just so you're not. y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black

people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast. Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests.

I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it, and we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses.

Steve Burns. Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth, or are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Keir Gaines, is we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood,

pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hardway. Open your free, Our Heart Radio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. I'm going to take Miami minus one and a half at home against the Patriots. Now, I have kind of certain rules, take Andy Reed and a by, and then take Belichick against the young quarterback, but this is different. First of all, the one thing Tua doesn't do is throw picks. He's almost safe sometimes to a fault. Secondly, Brian Flores is the perfect coach to prepare Tua for Belichick.

And the Patriots are 9 and 11 on the road against the Dolphins in the Belichick era, and this is a much better dolphin team and coach than in years past. And the Dolphins defense this year, let's just give Brian Flores coach of the year. Points per game number two, takeaways tied for first, third down first, opposer pass a rating third. I still think the dolphins are undervalued. I don't even know what the Patriots are playing for at this point. I'm going to take Miami to win by a field goal or more. What are the wise guys think?

slight disagreement here, and you said it at the end, what are the Patriots playing for? It's the fact that they hate the fact that dolphins have beat them a decent amount on the road in these spots, meaning this is one of those games they start looking at in the summer because they know Miami's had success against them, not to mention and think about it when you have someone who you nurture and, you know, however you want to call the mass. subservient relationship that you have with Belichick, now this guy is in conversation, Flores, to be the coach of the year. You don't think Belichick is thinking, I got to show him who's boss.

So I think the motivation isn't going to be the problem. And I think both teams are super familiar with each other. And let me ask you, have you ever played like chess or any real strategy game? Oh, sure. A backgammon chess, yeah. All right, so let's use chess an example. So let's say that you're playing a buddy and you guys are even and you're having fun. but then you got this guy that you used to play who is like a really good chess player.

The fact that that guy knows your game and you know his game, it helped him so much more than it helps you. Because a master, and let's be candid, as good as we think Miami's coach is, he's not Bill Belichick. And I think whenever Belichick has knowledge of the other guy, he exploits it more than the other guy has knowledge of Belichick. Because Belichick knows what he knows and he's going to use it against him. And I think that you mentioned it, and I don't want to just dismiss it. This idea of young quarterbacks. We went back, we went all the way back to the Browns with Belichick, and first and second year quarterbacks.

And this is pretty amazing, Colin, is first and second year quarterbacks against Belichick. Belichick is 67% against the spread. In quarterbacks, eight years or older, he's about 62%. In the middle, that healthy, like, year three through seven, he's only 55. 50. So Belichick exploits young quarterbacks and old quarterbacks. So I'm going to disagree with your pick on the dolphins. I'm going to take Arizona minus six and a half. I know it's a big number against the Eagles. First thing, the Eagles defense has four picks all season. That's second worst in the league. Translation, Kyler Murray, who can sometimes unleash an errant throw. There's

an opportunity here that I get all his athleticism and a turnover free game. Meanwhile, on the other side, the Eagles are the only team in the NFL to all. allow 50 plus sacks. So they don't put pressure on quarterbacks enough to force turnovers and they allow a lot of them creating turnovers. But here's the thing I like more than anything. Arizona's defense will be absolutely prepared for Jalen Hertz. Because they face a better version of him, Kyler Murray, every day at practice. This is not a team that's going to feel it's a jarring experience. The Saints were guessing the entire game with Jalen Hertz. The Cardinals know exactly what Jalen Hertz does because Kyler Murray does it to a

much higher level every day at practice. I think Arizona playing for more. I actually think when Kyler runs, they're a really good football team. He's running again. I'll take him here. What are the wise guys think? Disagreement, I agree with you 100% about Kyler needing to run being key. But let me try to do a little jiu-jitsu on you here with this idea of who they face in practice. Who does a first-team? defense actually face in practice. Isn't it the scout quarterback more? Well, I mean, there's, by the way, there's all sorts of different people you face in practice, but I think there's an understanding. The first team defense knows exactly what the offense does, and that offense Philadelphia is going to offer. Schematically.

Schematically, it's going to look like a lot of what Arizona does with less talented people. I think that cuts both ways, but I would make the case the Philly defense has gone against Hertz this year more who could be a proxy for Kyler Murray more than the backup quarterback for Arizona that's gone against the Arizona first team D. So I think your theory is good, but I think it actually speaks more that the Philly D is used to going against the scout team quarterback, which has been hurts up until last week. But I think both teams are familiar. And I think it probably tends towards the under the fact that both teams are going to

be familiar with mobile quarterbacks. Here's my question, though. And this is a good exercise to do in any game that you're betting. What do you think the line should be? because when you lay six and a half, you're saying at minimum it should be a touchdown. And does that, I mean, the power ratings say it should be about five points.

So now the, even with home field, so the question becomes, is Philly better or worse with Hertz right now? Going into the last week, I wasn't sure. I think unequivocally, Hertz is the better quarterback for Philly right now. Do you agree with that?

Like, if Wentz was announced the starter this morning, would you like it more or, less. Your pick on Arizona. I would like to see another game of hurts. I think it's like Taysam Hill. The first week or two, oh, wow. And then now Sean Payton's already replacing him because even though he's athletic with a better arm than Breeze, the Saints are scoring fewer points now with Taysam Hill. So Jalen Hertz in a game, maybe two, but over time, he's a limited player and a limited thrower. I think the way that that limitation shows itself is usually you're going to be injury, whereas if you keep running this much, it's hard to sustain it.

In my opinion, if a quarterback has this physical skills and is willing to run, that basement, the basement of the offense gets improved because you can't be that bad if you have a running quarterback. And I also think it energized the rest of the Eagles. So obviously these are interesting debates, but in my opinion, the Eagles are probably in their best situation of any game this year because of that enthusiasm. And I'm getting almost a touchdown. I'll take the Eagles.

All right, I'm going to take Washington. The number is bouncing around. Five and a half or six at home against Seattle. First thing is Seattle in their last nine's three and six against the spread. Why? They're struggling with an identity on offense. The offensive line outside of left tackle is below average. But this is really about a football coach that most of us liked in Carolina

that built a very good consistent defense in Carolina. And he's doing it quickly in Washington. Ron Rivera, this Washington football team defense during their current four-game winning streak, is allowing 14 points a game. They have four players with five-plus sacks. Very quickly, like in Carolina, where Cam always had top ten defenses, this is a formidable defensive front that I think will ugly up this game against Russell Wilson. I think it's low scoring.

I think the D-line for Washington just... really limits what Seattle can do, throwing the ball down the field. So win or lose, I think it's too many points for a hot and improving and talented Ron Rivera defense. What do the wise guys think? Agreement here. And let me give you a Ron Rivera idea that I heard recently, and it really resonated with me. Now, unfortunately, most of us have dealt, you know, to some degree with chemotherapy and the family or whatever. and we know it is a, you know, it knocks a person out.

I mean, it's so, everyone's different, but it's so hard. The head coach on this team had gone through that throughout this season. And now that he's on the other side of that, and let's hope, you know, wonderful things for him, he has more energy. He has more time. And Rivera's no figurehead. I mean, if anything, he's the quasi-GM right now. So in general, I think that fact that Washington is playing so much better lately,

is somehow, or not somehow, is clearly connected to Rivera's health and just having more energy to put into his role on the team. So whenever you have a short season, I'm always skeptical about saying, well, the last three games, they're better. Because when you only got 16 games, I think you've got to count them all typically, unless you have a reason to say, here's the delineation, there's a before and an after. and I think with Washington, they benefit from a healthier, less distracted with his health coach. What does concern me is, and let me ask you, do you upgrade or downgrade Washington with Alex Smith versus Haskins? How do you compare those? I think it's going to be an ugly game. I think Alex Smith, Duane's got a bigger arm.

I think they'll limit the offense. With an injured Alex Smith, I think they'll limit the offense. I think this week it wouldn't be a significant. gap. You know, we didn't know each other back then. Were you a big Jeff George fan? No, I thought he was a goofball, but I thought he had a huge talent. He was like Jay Cutler. I could keep hearing you say, that arm on that Jeff George. To some degree, it's about performance, right? So, you know, and that's always the challenge is when the guys got the talent and they're not shown it on the field, right? And Haskin certainly does. And Alex Smith has shown so much more

than his physical skills at this point. Gibson is out for Washington, or at least he's very questionable. So I agree with you here. I just think it's a situation where if the listener has the chance, wait, and if Alex Smith is in, I think that's an upgrade.

And if running back Gibson's in, I think that's an upgrade for Washington. My favorite pick of the week, coming up next with R.J. Bell. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care what you'll say. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.

And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment,

and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking.

What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jett. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s.

To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because, of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you finishing that sentence. Yes.

I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Keer Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own

experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tript Fontaine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses.

Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth? Are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines,

as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, learn the hard way. Open your free, our heart radio app, Search learn the hard way and listen now. RJ Bell joined us again. This is my favorite pick of the week. New Orleans plus three and a half at home against the Chiefs.

Kansas City, 0 and 5 against the spread in the last five games. Why? They're struggling in the red zone. You're getting more field goals than touchdowns. Kind of the opposite of what you're getting with Buffalo recently. The Saints are going with Drew Brees. And as good as Taysam Hill is, is the Taysom Hill Sean Payton experiment feels like 75-25 mad scientist elevating a limited quarterback.

I think the Chiefs are a team that is struggling right now. If you look at the stats defensively and in the red zone offensively, and I think the Saints are one of the only teams in the league with a better roster than Kansas City. Breeze is back. I get more than a field goal. I really like the Saints here. What do the wise guys think? Total agreement at this number.

My guess is we're going to see as the Breeze news starts to get considered and factored into the number. I see this line going down. It could go down to Kansas City only favored by one. I thought, and I set it on straight out of Vegas, I thought your points about the Saints benefiting from not starting Breeze on Thursday show were some of the smartest stuff I've heard in months about the NFL calling. I thought you were right on with it. Isn't it fascinating that it seems like that was a deception? I mean, do you think that all of a sudden Breeze got better in the last 24 hours? No, see, I think they just threw it out there so Andy Reid would prepare for this quirky quarterback.

Yep. And I think that's a sign that they've known all week he was going to start. They knew last week he was going to start probably. And the team feels like it unleashed like a sneaky plan. and that's going to get them focused and attention. And here's the thing, if Kansas City loses this game, they still have, based on 538.com, a 91% chance to get a first round by to be the number one seat.

So really, they're not playing for anything. And this is a team that has trouble keeping attention in all situations. You know, you talk about Red Zone stuff. I think their problem is when they focus Kansas City's clearly the best team in the country or in NFL, when they don't focus, they're not. and they tend not to focus in many, many, many spots. And you mentioned it, 0.1 5 against the spread, even though they've won 5 straight. There's only one team that's ever done that in NFL history, the undefeated Patriots.

When teams are this good, and I'm not saying Kansas City's that good, but when they're this good, they tend to be hot and cold with their effort, and we've seen that with Kansas City. And I think this is a tired team. Fourth Road game for Kansas City in five weeks, and each of the, the four trips, a thousand miles or more. Agreement Saints. All right. Bonus time, and this is a game. Let me first ask you this, just to teach our audience. What is your favorite game on the board this week, regardless of what I pick? What's your favorite? Oh, that's interesting. I actually like, and maybe this is niche, but I like over in the Giants game. The Giants have a ton of quarterback

issues and I think it's a situation where though Baker Mayfield may be a little flat because it's national TV he won't be. If I had to say a side pick, I would say the Saints at the number we're talking about now would be on that list for sure. Okay. So I just, so I never asked to that and I thought I want to give our audience kind of a peek into how RJ Bell thinks. So I'm going to throw a game out that is, is interesting to me. So Matt Nagy's coaching for his job. They're getting three and a half at Minnesota, and Aggies four and one against the Vikings. The Bears defense also had a season high seven sacks against the Texans, and Kirk Cousins doesn't play well with pressure.

I have stayed away from Minnesota all year, RJ. There's just certain teams I don't get a beat on, and week to week, I don't know what they are. I would have taken Chicago and the points here because I do think it's a coaching staff fighting for its job. And I do think Mitch Trubisky and lousy weather, you can move him around, run game, Foles worries me more in windy Chicago or crappy weather. And I know it's at Minnesota. But I kind of look at

this, I look at Trubisky and naggy and late season and I think are we just undervaluing that Chicago's got really good defensive personnel. They plan a lot of low scoring games. I take the bears here. Where would you land?

I like the Vikings and I tell you, I have a saying. I say, life's tough enough. bet against Belichick. Just keep it simple, right? Either go with pads or pass. And I almost am like that with Zimmer. This is going to shock you, and I don't, you don't hear anyone talking about it. But since Zimmer became a head coach in 2014, he has the very best ATS record against the spread of any coach in the NFL. Wow. Number one, the Vikings, they're 61% since 2014 against to spread.

66 winners, 42 losers, six pushes. 61%. Number two, yep, the genius. Belichick, 60%. Number three is all the way down to 57%. Andy Reid. And then there's no other team better than 55%. So there's three teams better than 55% since 2014.

All right. Andy Reid, then the chiefs, 57. Belichick, 60%. And the Vikings with Zimmer, 61%. I believe these questionable motivation spots, do the Vikings still think they're in it? You know, they got about a 20% chance. I think Zimmer is the Trump card in all those situations. And last thing, we talked about it earlier is do you look at one game?

Because Trubisky, if you look at over the season, not good. You look at over the course of his career, not good. But you could make the case against the lines and last week against Houston that he's played well. Do we trust the two games or do we trust the longer? sample size. Also, I would make the case the bears for the second half of the year, the defense hasn't been playing hard, but they did play hard last week. Do we trust last week or the last eight games? In general, professional batters will look at the bigger sample size and take it more seriously. I don't love this game, but I certainly would lean strongly to the Vikings, and again, Zimmer,

a big part of it. By the way, this was my lead on Friday show, RJ Bell, joining us. and so maybe you heard it, maybe you didn't, but that John Gruden, the difference between he and Brian Billick, is one has better marketing, is that they both won a Super Bowl, and though they're offensive guys, it was about their defense. And one got a second opportunity for a job,

and the other is a TV star and leveraged it into a second great job. A third great job eventually for John Gruden, is that if you really look at Gruden, he has become over his career a bad December coach. What does that mean? Well, Belichick and Sean Payton, the defensive and offensive whizzes in their career, the longer they have a roster, the better it gets over the course of a season. Just like saying the better CEO a company has, the longer he's at the company,

the better the company gets. Gruden's becoming one of the worst December coaches in the NFL. Why does Brian Billick not get another job? He's kind of dull. why does why does gruden leverage a 10-year contract chucky best-selling book he's more he's more marketing maven than football maven and i just want your thoughts about gruden the coach because i think frankly he's moved into a overvalued head coach that's fascinating i have two responses to that one is i believe there's probably only about 10 really good coaches in the world and i think grueh

If we were having all-star teams would be a great O.C. I think he's a great O.C. But he's not an O-C. He's a head coach and a GM. And I'm not really going to be critical of the GM decisions they've made because I think generally they've been pretty decent with Mayock. But I do think that Gruden's a better offensive coordinator, and you can see that's his focus.

But I would make a bigger point. Do you watch the show Billions on Showtime? Oh, yeah, sure. Love it. Okay. So there was an episode, I love it too. There was an episode recently last season in which they talked about the infinite game. And there's actually books on this, and I've read two of them, where it talks about that some people are playing the obvious game, but billionaires tend to play the infinite game.

It's a game that isn't even obvious what the rules are. I believe the Raiders were playing a different game the last three years, and winning and losing doesn't matter as much to them. They needed to bridge to Vegas because two years ago, they were the financially worst team, worst off team in the NFL, and now they're one of the better off teams because they made it to Vegas. Well, how do you make it to Vegas? With excitement, with distraction, without focusing on anything other than, hey, we're enthused. Look, we got a 10-year contract with this great showman, as you said.

Maybe a showman is what the Raiders needed more than an actual great football coach. And if so, they've succeeded because they're in Vegas and there's probably what, a billion dollars, of result that came from that. Good stuff. What's the name of that book again? It's a concept, and there's a couple books on it. It's called The Infinite Game. And if you actually go and look at billions, one of the episodes from last year, the title of the episode was The Infinite Game. All right. I'm on a lot of an hour and a half flights. If I could, I'm going to get that book. You're like the Oprah Club for guys at Gamble. That I'll take. RJ Bell, good talking to you.

Thank you. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, what's good, y'all? You're listening to Learn the Hard Way with your favorite therapist and host, Kier Games. This space is about black men's experiences, having honest conversations that it's really not safe to have anywhere,

but you're having them with a licensed professional who knows what he's doing. How many men carry a suit or armor. It signals to the world that you're not to be played with. And just because you have the capability that doesn't. not mean that you need to. Listen to learn the hard way on the AHA radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. On the Look Back at it podcast.

From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it with our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year.

It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.