The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Blazing 5 - Week 16
Episode Date: December 21, 2019Colin goes over his Blazing 5 picks with RJ Bell of Pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio who tells him which games the wise guys in Vegas agree or disagree with. Here are the games Colin and RJ go over i...n week 16:Ravens @ BrownsBengals @ DolphinsSteelers @ JetsCowboys @ EaglesChiefs @ BearsPlus, Colin reveals a 6th bonus pick exclusive to this podcast and they even talk some Ohio State vs Clemson Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Welcome to our Saturday morning podcast.
Been an interesting year for me.
I'm at 52%.
I don't believe in, you know, getting bad breaks and bad beats.
although Seattle was one for me last week.
That's life.
Let's go to my blazing five picks this week.
That's a hot one.
Let's blaze it up.
Fire it up.
It's Collins, Blazing Five.
Ravens and Browns.
You know, we talk a lot about Baltimore's offense.
I'm going to take the Ravens minus 9, 10, whatever the line is.
It's now 9.
I'm going to take Baltimore.
But their defense has been absolutely sensational since Marcus Peters arrived.
They're getting a pass rush during their 10 games.
winning streak, their first, second, or third, and virtually everything, including quarterback
hits per game.
They hit the quarterback seven times, and Baker Mayfield has looked very gun-shy in the last six weeks.
He's tired of getting hit.
Cleveland is a team that allows you to run the football.
135 yards per game is what teams average on the ground.
Remember, the first time they played, Baltimore didn't have Marcus Peters, still trying to defy-five,
their offense. In Cleveland, oh, my Lord Nick Chubb was unbelievable. The moral of the story,
September is not December. I like Baltimore to win going away. 33 to 20. I think it could
potentially be worse than that. Bengals and Dolphins. Really like Miami here. It is close to a
pick-um or Miami plus one. Miami's at home on a holiday weekend. Cincinnati's coming to town.
I don't think Cincinnati's that well-coached. I think Miami's,
is not great but well-coached.
After that disastrous start,
Brian Flores comes in, new team.
He's trying to figure out his personnel.
You know, last seven games, they're three and four.
Last seven games, they're three and four.
And by the way, in their last 10,
they're seven and three against the spread.
And Ryan Fitzpatrick, who can move a little,
if you go look at him since week nine,
he's got twice as many touchdown passes as interceptions.
He's completing about 63% of his throws.
Now, he's a great transition quarterback.
He's not a franchise guy, but you can use him this year.
He's a gamer. He's tough. He can move.
Went to Harvard. Harvard.
I think Miami wins this game.
I think it's one of the rare times that I love what is considered a bad football team.
I'm going to take the Dolphins to win that thing.
What did I pick the score at?
2420. There we go. Sorry, a piece of paper in the way.
Steelers at Jets.
I like the Jets plus three.
Listen, Sam Darnold goes comments against New England.
Oh, my God, sell your stock.
Sam Darnold's actually, even in losses, playing very, very well.
Since week nine, Sam Darnold, 62% completion percentage, 12 TDs, four picks, 95 passer rating, two rushing touchdowns.
That's for the worst offensive line in football, in my opinion.
It's got to be one of the bottom, too.
He's not the issue.
Devlin Hodges for the Steelers.
I love their front seven.
But folks, in the four games he's played this year, she's got more interceptions than touchdowns.
They give you one offensive touchdown a week.
That's just what Pittsburgh gives you with Devlin Hodges.
The Jets have shown at home.
Remember the Dallas game?
They've had games at home where they're pretty impressive.
They're fairly healthy.
And I think Pittsburgh's been exposed as a totally limited offense.
I'm going to take the Jets to win it outright 2623.
Cowboys and Eagles.
Dallas minus two.
I'm going to take them here to number.
If it was three and a half, I'd probably stay away.
Okay, listen, Carson Wentz is having a much better year than everybody says.
But here's the thing about Philadelphia.
They can't beat you over the top.
But you can't do it.
Last couple of weeks against average teams, their defense can't take the ball away.
This is what worries me.
If you just let DAC do his little comeback patterns and Zeke run the ball,
Dallas could dominate time of possession.
Last couple of weeks, Philadelphia defensively has been awful.
Dallas is 5-0 this year when they rush for over 172 yards,
and Zeke has owned the Philadelphia Eagles defensive front.
I love Fletcher Cox, but he hasn't had a great ear by Fletcher Cox standards.
The Cowboys offensive line is healthy.
This comes down to me.
The Dallas staff gets fired if they don't win.
There is unbelievable urgency.
I think Dax injury actually forces Dallas to not get cute and run the football.
I think Dallas wins by a touchdown here.
Chiefs and Bears.
I'll easily swallow the points here.
I'm going to take Kansas City minus six.
What's Chicago playing for?
Kansas City has sneakily become the second hottest team in the league after Baltimore.
Last four games, four and no, four and oh against the spread.
Their defense, too.
We talk about offense since the by week.
Their defense has been really good.
their defense is number one in points per game allowed, fifth and yards allowed.
Here's the thing about the Bears.
The Bears can win games, but in their last 10 games, they're 2 and 8 against the spread.
I mean, when they do win, it's ugly.
The game has to be played a certain way for Chicago to win, and I don't think right now, Kansas City,
I don't think you can marginalize them.
I think this is, I don't think Andy Reid privately is like,
we got healthy at the right time, we got hot at the right time.
I mean, this is a team that went into New England and won a football game.
And I didn't think Kansas City played flawless football.
I thought situationally, they weren't great in New England.
I thought they were kind of choppy.
Now they go into a Chicago team that's not as good, not playing for a ton.
I like Kansas City to win and cover, 3221.
So there's my blazing five picks, all the odds provided by Foxxbat.
I'll take the favored Ravens.
I'll take the favored cowboys and the favored chiefs,
and I'll take the underdog Miami Dolphins and the New York Jets.
All right, let's bring in pregame.com's R.J. Bell, host straight out of Vegas, Fox Sports Radio, 6 to 7 Eastern,
his Twitter account at RJ in Vegas.
All right, let's start with this one.
You know me, I don't like double-digit favorites, but I do believe RJ that you get these teams,
the 2015 Carolina Panthers, the Seahawks, the year they won the Super Bowl,
they get hot, they're healthy, and the league's trying to play catch-up with their energy.
Ravens minus 10 at the Browns.
I even get a little revenge on Baltimore's side.
I just think Baltimore, this is a strange and unique every five-year situation.
Browns don't have much to play for.
I'm going to lay the 10 here with Baltimore.
What would the wise guys think?
Surprisingly, agreement here.
And here's the thing.
when there's a big favorite and the motivation is obvious,
there's no problem with favorites.
In fact, in the playoffs,
favorites do really well,
especially big ones.
So what ends up happening is can you figure out,
is a team motivated?
And I think Baltimore,
off of that loss,
an embarrassment in division,
oh man, Harbaugh loves to make statements.
I think this could be a total,
annihilation. I only got one question. How in the heck did the Browns do what they did the first game?
Well, it's interesting because at the time we thought the Browns were pretty good and Baltimore was only two to one.
So it was not a shock to our system. We thought, ooh, Baker had a good day. They did it by dominating Nick Chubb had a huge day and they took time of possession away from Baltimore and Lamar had to play from behind had two picks.
So it's funny.
We look at it now and we're shocked.
But if you go back to that week, RJ,
we didn't know Baltimore was Baltimore.
They haven't lost since then.
In fact, the Orioles have a more recent loss than the Ravens.
But Cleveland was the team we thought that was pretty interesting then and pretty talented.
Yeah, I agree with you there.
But in hindsight, the offense was what it is now.
And the Browns stopped it.
And even though the defense has improved greatly since the trade and with Smithback,
at cornerback, I agree.
Listen, you got agreement.
It's just really confusing to me
how the one time this entire year
Baltimore was dominated,
it was against the Browns.
Should be noted, Miles Garrett would be a really nice
piece to have for Cleveland this weekend.
Their most athletic defensive end,
he's obviously still out for the seasons.
Bengals at the Dolphins.
I'm going to take Miami. It's essentially a pick-um.
Not all bad teams are the same.
I think the Dolphins have a plan,
draft picks, they're developing players.
They obviously have to rebuild their defense.
But I think Brian Flores, I think this team has some momentum.
I think they like their coach.
They're at home.
And again, not all bad teams are even.
I like the dolphins, actually.
They are a tough out.
I'll take them here.
What would the wise guys say?
Love it.
Love it.
One of my favorite picks of the week.
And at first glance, I didn't really understand.
understand this line because even though Miami doesn't have a great home field, let's call it two
even. Well, are we saying the Bengals are clearly better? It doesn't make any sense. I think that's
the value you're seeing. Here's what I figured out. A lot of people remember Miami just getting
annihilated early and they got annihilated last week. And a lot of these really decent performances
along the way, they didn't win the games. So if you bet, maybe you were a little more aware of
if you bet that game.
Otherwise, the dolphins are just one of the worst teams.
You mentioned something.
I don't think Miami is at all worried about the second pick or the third pick.
I think the momentum they have is something they value greatly with a young coach.
It's getting a lot of accolades.
Last thing, Sinci, probably the worst coach team in the league, down in Miami, holiday weekend.
Distractions.
Love, love, love, Miami.
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Last night, a blown call changed a game.
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Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened.
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I'm Timbo.
Every episode, we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies,
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What's up guys? This is CliverTaylor the 4th.
And on my podcast, The Cliverts show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff.
being an internet famous referee.
We're in the middle of a game.
This linebacker walks up to me, he goes,
hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her.
What?
Quarterback on office blue 42.
Hey, ref, my mama wants you to wave at her.
What?
Where's she at?
Hey, Miss Parker.
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What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas.
And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast, Point Game is about defying the odds.
Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed.
And finding ways to win no matter what.
He's the smartest player to ever play the game.
His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before.
And he knows.
Without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game.
We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs.
I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because,
when they don't have Rudy in the lineup,
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He has to guard Julius Randall.
And then he has to give us everything he gives us
on the night-to-night basis on offense.
And when IT's friends stop by,
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Steve Nass would get that thing.
That man, hell get the flying.
He running up the court, licking his fingers
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after you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah,
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Get your ass up and down the court,
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Steelers at the Jets, I'll take New York plus three.
First of all, the Jets at home of generally outside of the Patriot game been pretty feisty.
With Duck Hodges, Pittsburgh is a completely limited offense.
They may win this game.
But it's just a number here.
Sam Darnold, despite losing big to Baltimore, has not been the problem.
He gives you about one, oh my God, throw a week.
but Darnold with a really bad O' line has been very effective.
Again, the optics with the Jets are worse than reality.
They're not a terrible team.
They've had a couple of games, Baltimore and New England, where they're simply outclassed.
I'm going to take the points with the Jets at home.
What are the wise guys think?
Going to give you a slight agreement.
I am not near as optimistic about Darnold, about the Jets as you are.
I don't make the excuses you do.
about, I mean, to me, there's no doubt
Donald has potential. What I wonder is, and let me ask you,
what quarterback has been this average in his second year at the end and
became an elite quarterback? Well, I mean, it's
very fair questions. I think he has the worst offensive line in the league,
and the question becomes, can he overcome the Jets dysfunction? I've said
this about Baker from day one. I don't think Baker's talented enough to overcome dysfunction.
I don't think Sam Darnold has ever been a natural thrower or as gifted athletically as
Wence or Lamar Jackson. But I think he's good and I think the Jets now have a legitimate general
manager. So I do think quarterbacks get better. I thought Russell Wilson in year three
popped to now he's an MVP level quarterback. So I do think it's a slow progression. And that was
with Pete Carroll, by the way. That was with John Snyder. So I think the questions about
Darnold are fair, but I just think athletically he's the kind of quarterback I want for the
next 12 years, which is can make the throws, take the hits, and make plays with his feet.
And if you're right, even a little bit this week, you've got to like the Jets, because if you
look at Pittsburgh now, let's go back seven games. They've only scored more than one
offensive touchdown one time. Yes. I mean, so this. This
is a team. And they haven't played a bunch of great
defenses in that period.
Yeah, true enough, true enough. I mean,
you know, obviously they played the Ravens really well.
Yes. You know, Buffalo, you could say
they played decently, though they lost a game.
They should, you know, they were favored in.
So to me,
they got lucky with
some close wins, and they got lucky
with some turnovers. And you
can say, oh, that's the way good defenses
do. But really,
there's not a great correlation between
a bunch of turnovers and a great
great defense. So I'm going to agree with you because I think Pittsburgh is overrated.
Greenland Jets. I'll tell I don't take the Cowboys much. I really don't in the Blazing Five.
I think they're an over-bet team. I do like them as long as the number is under three,
Cowboys minus two and a half. Carson Wentz has had a better year than people think. But I think
the Cowboys staff, the job is on the line. I think the weather plays to them. It's not ugly
Philadelphia weather, it's mid-40s.
I think Philadelphia's got major issues on the outside.
They've got no receivers healthy.
And I just struggle to think that Dallas, arguably after Baltimore, the healthiest team in the
NFL who kind of found their way last week running the ball, I think they win by about
a field goal or more.
What do the wise guys think?
Big disagreement here, big one.
Now, let's do a little simple math.
So last week, you may recall, you had your biggest disagreement of the decade when you had the Rams, right?
Yes, I got smoked.
So the Rams were four and a half points better than Dallas.
That was the perception because it was in Dallas, three points for home field, and the Rams were one and a half.
Okay.
Now, in this game, let's just call two and a half is the line.
So that means Dallas is five and a half points better.
So this is amazing.
So Dallas is five and a half points better than the Eagles, but the Rams are four and a half points better than them.
So that means the Rams are 10 points better than the Eagles.
Does that sound right?
No.
No.
What's happened is Dallas was way underrated last week, but I think it swung too far to the other way.
I mean, if this game were in Dallas, Colin, the line would be eight and a half.
I mean, does that seem like, oh, that's too cheap?
Dallas only by eight and a half.
And the road favorites are tricky like that.
Now, listen, Dallas has played well in Philly.
Last thing I'll say is this, if it's a tight game in the fourth,
wouldn't you agree the Eagles are maybe the best team over the last three seasons?
You start back playoffs against the Falcons,
and they went all the way to the Super Bowl.
Last year, remember, they went to the Rams as 10-point underdogs,
won that game and a must win.
this is probably the best team of close games we've seen over the last couple years,
and Dallas is going to know that Jerry Jones is staring down on them.
So to me, a lot of my liking Philly here is I don't trust Dallas in a tight game for all the marbles,
and I certainly do trust the Eagles.
Yeah, no, Philly, you know, I'm a huge Carson-Went's fan, so if it's close,
despite his lack of weapons, that's a good point.
Three-and-one agreement.
Finally, we know Baltimore is hot.
I think the Chiefs in the last three weeks, that defense has gotten better,
only have to give up five at the Bears, not sure what Chicago plays for.
Kansas City is sneaky hot right now, and the defense has gotten better.
The secondary has gotten better.
So I'm going to take the Chiefs.
I like the number, minus five, six, wherever you get it.
What do the wise guys think?
I'm going to agree with you just because it's going to
allow me to bring up how right I was about Kansas City.
Yes, you were on them about, was it three weeks ago?
Yeah, about three weeks ago. And to me, I think the defensive side, you said it,
that's the key here, is if you look at it, and I think I heard this on your show, actually,
and I loved it, since the buy, Kansas City has had the best defense on a points per game
basis. So since their own buy, that was the case. Now, even if they're the 10,
best defense, let's just say.
With that offense, this is probably the second favorite behind Baltimore.
And I don't know if the defense is really that good, but man, the stats say they are right now,
though, a small sample size, you flip on the other side, the bears.
I mean, I'm guessing you saw Trubisky actually critiquing Nagy.
I mean, to me, if there's any sense of like, oh, my gosh, this is an example of the team.
struggling to find answers, I can't imagine that locker room.
Known Trubisky's making that first round money and has been carried by the team.
And now he's critiquing the coach.
I think that's a bad sign.
Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist,
Kier Games.
And in recognition of mental health awareness month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience
in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests.
I'm talking. Trip Fontaine, Ryan Clark.
Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase
that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing.
And we're still chasing it.
And we don't know when we've done enough.
Because people scoreboard watch.
Life becomes about wins and losses.
Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you
hear on earth?
Are you a good person because you're afraid?
Because that's two different intentions, bro.
Absolutely.
And that's two different levels of trust.
I want you to just really be a good person.
Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, learn the hard way.
Open your free iHeartRadio app.
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Last night, a blown call changed a game.
This morning, the internet lost its mind.
Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened.
That's where Sports Slice comes in.
I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. Breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the
the people who live them.
Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
And for more, follow Timbo Sliced Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok.
What's up, guys?
This is Clivert Taylor the 4th.
And on my podcast, The Cliverts Show, I'm bringing you conversations about all kinds of stuff.
Like being an internet famous referee.
We're in the middle of a game.
This linebacker, this linebacker walks up to me.
He goes, hey, ref, my mom wants you to wave at her.
What?
Time out.
Quarterback on office blue with 42.
Hey, Wreck, my mama want you to weigh better.
What?
Where's she at?
Hey, Miss Parker.
Listen to the Clippers show on the IHeart Radio app,
Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.
Hey, I'm Diana Maria Riva, actress, mother, lover,
and a Gen X woman walking through life one hot flash and hormonal crying jag at a time.
You ladies know what I mean.
I'll bet you a paramed apocel chin.
Here you do. So let's talk about it. Join me on my new podcast. How hard can it be with
Deanna Maria Riva, where I call on my Gen X squads from Ohio to Hollywood as we navigate
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How can it be getting naked at 50 with the new guy?
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I cannot believe I'm about to say this out loud in public.
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Another reason I agree with you on KC,
Finally, our bonus pick we do on Saturdays.
I'm going to stay away from this game on my Blazing 5 because I just chose to stay away
because Delvin Cook, if he's healthy, I think Minnesota is the much better roster with a much
better coach.
I have questions about Matt Lefleur.
Green Bay does not in the second half adjust.
They're one of the worst third quarter offenses at adjusting in the league.
But without Delvin Cook, if the number's five to five and a half, I'd probably go
Green Bay, what would the wise guys say?
Disagreement here. Though I personally think this
number's getting out of hand, and this
is such a good example, Colin,
where it was so much
easier 10, 15 years ago
to beat Vegas. Because
the line on this game, 15 years
ago, would have been three.
And I would have loved Minnesota.
Because it would have been like, well,
Green Bay's got such the better record, or, you know,
clearly the better record. Minnesota's at home,
it three. So why has it changed in Vegas? Because they don't
care if the squares bet, bet, bet on
Green Bay. They'll take all kinds, as long as they're confident,
they're on the right side. And remember, when you bet 10 to
win 11, which bookies do, you only got to be right
48% of the time to make a bunch of money. So they're very
confident that Minnesota's better. And because of that, they're
putting a line out there that is going to have
in no negativity here, but it's going to have every square in town saying,
I get Aaron Rogers and all those points against, oh, my gosh, you know that Cousins isn't good in prime time, right?
Yeah.
The fact this number is what it is.
And you always talk about these games.
You say, oh, this number doesn't make sense, which is a sign that Vegas wants you to bat Green Bay, right?
So looking at this, wouldn't you agree, the average Joe in the bar is taking green?
Green Bay. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Aaron Rogers, plus five and a half. It's a guaranteed winner.
And exactly. And think about it, why would Vegas give them such a juicy bet unless they wanted them to make that bet?
Yeah, no, they're begging you to bet the Packers. And you did it. Yeah. Well, I almost did it.
RJ Bell, who's nice enough to come on, you've been battling influenza this week.
You know, a little, let's just say it's been a tough week, but I, listen, this is one of my favorite things.
to do each week, and I'm here no matter what.
By the way, I'll just throw you a little bone.
Clemson is my biggest bet ever in college.
I like Clemson over Ohio State.
I know you hate that, but I'll just throw this out.
Clemson has played SEC speed five times in the last two years with four blowout wins.
Ohio State has played Big Ten speed.
Now they've got to shift gears and a defense the Buckeyes over the last month.
month has not been as formidable the Buckeyes defense. I think it's a wild, high-scoring affair,
and I'm swallowing the minus two with Clemson, your initial reaction.
I think you're on the sharp side, and the reason I say that is, let's use the same logic,
Colin, that we would about who's the public going to like here?
Ohio State.
Oh, God, yeah.
They're going to say, I mean, one, Ohio State had the best ATS margin in all across.
college football, meaning they covered the spread by the most points in aggregate over the course
of the year.
So that means a lot of Ohio State betters won a lot of money, right?
Number two, what happened is that they were dominant and not only covered, but it looked
like they weren't even games, right?
Michigan didn't even look like they were competitive.
Now they're getting points against the Clemson team.
What do most people remember about them?
North Carolina.
That's what they remember.
I think the case could be made.
Clemson has had one of the best, if not the best season ever of a defending champion.
In fact, if you actually look at their games, except for North Carolina, if you would give
them an extra field goal, just three points in two different games, they would have covered
every game this year, except North Carolina.
And that's hard to do.
I remember Pete Carroll's Trojans had a lot of ugly Saturday wins because of apathy and
dominance.
Clemson, it doesn't matter.
They're that much better than everybody on that side.
And last thing about Clemson as a program, all of these successes, Davosweeney, head to head against Sabin, it's been with not great recruiting classes.
And I know you're kind of an aficionado of this.
Clemson, first time ever, they had a top five class.
They had the number one class in some accounting.
So think about that.
They were able to be and go toe to toe with anybody in the country, including Alabama and Sabin, when they were recruiting.
recruiting 12, 15, that range.
Now they're number one.
Look out.
Yeah.
RJ Bell.
Buddy, it's great talking to you.
Have a great holiday season.
Hey, you too, Colin.
I appreciate it.
All right.
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