The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Blazing 5 - Wild Card Weekend

Episode Date: January 9, 2021

Colin talks with RJ Bell of PreGame.com & FOX Sports Radio about his Blazin' 5 picks to find out which ones the sharps in Vegas agree or disagree with.This week's games:Colts @ BillsRams @ SeahawksWashington @ Tampa BayBears @ SaintsBrowns @ SteelersPlus, Colin gives out a bonus pick not in his Blazin' 5. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.

I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but the show. celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you

get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. On the Look Back at it podcast. For 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84's big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack

what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it with our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, everybody. Welcome to our Saturday morning podcast. Well, my blazing five last week went two and three. So for the first time in my career, I was under 500. 40 wins, 42 losses, two ties.

COVID got me in September and October. I was awful to start the year. I'm going to get to RJ Bell of pregame.com and Fox Sports Radio in a few minutes. First, though, my blazing five picks. That's a hot one. Let's blaze it up. Fire it up. It's Collins blazing. Colts and bills.

All right, I'm going to take Buffalo minus six and a half here. They're the hottest team in the league, seven and one record at home, won six straight games by 10 plus points. And the other thing, teams go in waves. Seattle's struggling right now. The bills since week 12 are number one. one in the NFL, much better offensively than Kansas City since week 12, and it's not debatable, number one in everything.

Points, point differential, yards. The Colts worry me. I think they'll stay close for a while. But in the second half, Philip Rivers, when you go off script and you just need him to make a play, lowest ceiling in the league. Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, second half, they can do stuff off script. I like the bills to win and cover 312. Rams at Seahawks.

Like it, I love it. I bet this game got a better number than the number now, but L.A. plus three and a half, I'll take them. The Seahawks, more than any team in the league, play one-bossession games. They're always close, especially their rivalry games. 25 games decided by one possession since 2019 most in the NFL. And their offense now is struggling.

D.K. Metcalf has disappeared. And no defense gives them more consistent trouble than the Rams. They sacked Russell Wilson 11 times this year, 16 times in three games. And the Rams defense is number one in yards per play allowed. By the way, Cooper Cutback, Cam Acres back, Andrew Whitworth back. And even if they go to the backup quarterback, Seattle's not going to score a lot. He can have a Jalen Hertz ability. You're kind of guessing how to defend him.

upset of the weekend. Rams 21, Seahawks 20. Buccaneers at Washington. I think Washington is the play plus eight. Didn't bet it, but it's the play. They've been five and two over their last seven games have the Washington football team, and they've held opponents to 20 points or fewer in each of their last seven games. So Ron Rivera didn't have a preseason, little choppy in September, October, but in the last two months, Ron Rivera's defense,

A, it had talent when he got there, and B, now the talents being well coached, they're no fun to play. Alex Smith, 5 and 0 in his last five starts, and the Bucks and Tom Brady have struggled. Tom's a habit guy. Night games this year, been bad. Playoff teams this year, been bad. I don't love the matchup for Tampa here. I have them winning, but I think it's choppy. It's got upset written all over it.

I would take Washington plus 8. 2620, Tampa wins does not cover. Bears at Saints. Wouldn't touch this if you paid me, but I'll just take the Bears side because now it's up to nine and a half, 10 points. And that's, you know, here's the, here's how I feel.

Saints have the best roster in the league and are going to win this game, but there is value. A lot of times I'm not betting teams. I'm just betting a number. This number, some will tease this up to 10, 11 points. Chicago's got a real defense. Tribisky's been in playoffs before.

I like the coach. David Montgomery now is running the football. Since week 12, the offense for Chicago has been at least something. We know the Saints are better. Their offensive pieces are so good in New Orleans. You got Drew and Tassum and Alvin Kamara, Manuel Sanders, Michael Thomas now finally healthy. By the way, the Saints haven't had Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas together at full strength in a long time.

The Saints are going to win, but I'm just playing the number here. Nine and a half is too much to give anybody. Especially there's no fans in New Orleans. If there's fans, I call for a blowout. 28, 23 Saints win, but I'd take the Bears side. Browns at Steelers. Like the Steelers, I love them.

Now, I got this at four, but at six, and I'm still comfortable with it. Pittsburgh minus six. Two bad things happening. Actually, there's three. The Browns have the fewest players with post-season experience, 15 of any team in the playoffs. Bad. Experience matters.

Secondly, they're the only playoff team with a negative point differential. Bad. Third, they don't have their coach. I don't think it's that big, but it's something. I didn't like Cleveland to start. Now things are unraveling. Big Ben, at home, rested, will be the most comfortable of the two quarterbacks. Olivier Vernon's out for Cleveland, good pass rusher.

The Steelers have allowed the few at sacks in the NFL and also have the most sacks in the NFL. So translation of the two quarterbacks, Big Ben at home rested, will be the most comfortable quarterback. I don't think, I think you'll feel like Pittsburgh is the better team for three and a half hours. But I do think Cleveland has the ability to score. Cleveland's running game will have Big Ben watching some of this game not playing in it. But I'm comfortable with the number.

Pittsburgh 28, Cleveland 20, and I don't feel the game will feel that close. It'll feel like Pittsburgh is the better team with a more comfortable quarterback. So here we go with RJ Bell pregame.com is Twitter account at RJ in Vegas. Also hear him daily Monday through Friday, straight out of Vegas, Fox Sports Radio. So here we go. I generally don't have a lot of confidence in playoff picks because during the regular season, RJ. I got 15 games to choose from. I just pick five. And generally, I really like three to four. In the playoffs, six games, I got to pick five. So I'll give you my best effort. Here we go.

Buffalo minus six and a half. I would take the bills here. They're seven and one at home. Only lost to the Chiefs. Six straight wins by over 10. Since week 12, they're number one in the league in points, yards, double digit wins. and I think the cults, after halftime, a disturbing trend. They're very good on script. But when you need Philip Rivers to be dynamic off scripted plays, there's nothing there. I would take the bills here. What do the wise guys think? Agreement.

Slight agreement, but agreement. First off, what you said at the top is the most important thing we could say today, which is if you've got six games, what percentage of those are you going to play versus 15 or 16 in the regular because people want picks on every game and I think having a lien is fine but for a pick to be a winner long term the line has to be

wrong. Yes. And the line is often right. Mostly right. The Vegas guys are pretty good at this, right? So here's why I agree with you and I think, and listen, let's get some credit here. If the bills are as good as they seem you were ahead of this. Like you putting them

first in the hierarchy, what's it been now, three weeks? Yeah, three. four weeks. I mean, that is ahead of the game. The funny thing is most of the serious analytics people still think Kansas City is the better team. I don't quite understand that, but we'll get to that, I'm sure, next week.

Here's what I like about Buffalo. No one's talking about this. The bills had one bad game this year. It was against Tennessee. That was an atrocious situation because if you remember, they had a Thursday game the next week against Kansas City scheduled. The Tennessee game kept getting delayed. come Monday morning, they didn't know who they were going to play.

And they play Tuesday at Tennessee. So I think the bills are even better than they seem. Only reason I don't love this game, home field advantage this season just doesn't mean much at all. It doesn't. And thus, you're laying almost a touchdown against a playoff caliber team. So to me, if this game would have been last week, the line would have been five.

The fact that's gone up is because everyone was so overwhelmed by how good Buffalo looked even with their backups, but I still lean towards the bill's agreement. Okay, this is a game, RJ, that I did bet. I took LA plus four and a half. It is now come down significantly. It's three in most places. So I like the Rams, but I got the number at a much better space on Monday. So the Seahawks, here's why. Listen, 25 of their games since 2019 for Seattle have been decided by one possession. That's the most in the league. And since week 10, this is a below average offense. And the Rams specifically have sacked Russell Wilson 11 times this year,

kept him under 250 passing yards. Jalen Ramsey is a tough matchup for D.K. Metcalf. So points will be at a premium. Cam Acres is back. Andrew Whitworth is, and I think golf plays. So I like, this was my favorite bet of the weekend when it was four, four and a half. What would the wise guys think? Certainly agreement at your number.

I say agreement at three and a half, even. At three, I think it's starting to be the right number. So let's say an agreement, because I think there's some three and a halves out there still. So let's go agreement clean. Cooper Cup back, good thing. Whitworth is a big deal, a big deal. And here's my question to you about golf. Goff as a healthy quarterback is clearly better than Wolford.

The question is, if a thumb, if you're limited, is golf that much? better than Wilford. With the idea, too, that a running quarterback, you actually raise up the floor because you can never be horrible as a running quarterback. We've seen with Jalen Hertz, if you can run, you're going to be kind of viable. How much of an upgrade do you think a hobbled golf is? Well, it's a real good question. Plus, I started noticing this about four weeks ago, is that McVeigh's system is so dependent

on the run game and rolling out. and Goff has lost confidence in both throwing and running. That's bad for a quarterback, by the way. But that offense with Wofford, it actually is a better fit. I said this the other day to a friend. Tribisky would be a better fit in L.A. than Gough. Because they don't throw the ball deep. That's Trubisky's weakness.

And they roll on virtually every other play, Tribisky's strength. So I don't think Goff increasingly is a great fit with McVeigh. But your point being that I think we agree on Wofford. for a game could be a little bit of an unknown and a headache. I would rather take the backup quarterback and five points than I would with Goff and three. And I think the market considers right now that the golf is about three and a half points or four points better if he was healthy, but not healthy. We're thinking it's more two, two and a half.

I would rather have the extra two and a half points in the backup quarterback. Last thing about quarterbacks and about the game, Russell Wilson, you said that demarcator being week 10. I got some numbers on this. If you look at the expected points added, a very respected analytical way to look at quarterbacks and other players, week one through nine, the first nine weeks, Russell Wilson, number one in the NFL. Week 10 on, number 18. Something is different. I think there's value on the Rams. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.

Either way, the podcast Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music.

The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.

Hey, everyone, it's Ryder Strong and Will Ferdell from PodMeets World. And now the Pod Meets Twirled podcast. were two men who were completely clueless to reality TV, who now have covered Dancing with the Stars, traitors, and we're gearing up for the season finale of Survivor. So yeah, now we're experts. I know we annoyed a lot of our listeners by our severe lack of survivor knowledge.

That is the point of the show. I'm just going to remind you. I have watched some Survivor. I obviously haven't watched enough. Did people not like it? Like, what was just because we? Yeah. We'll be recapping the big conclusion

in the 50th season, from the final attempts at gameplay, to the desperate pleas of finalists to a bunch of again, we are experts. So make sure to tune into PodMeets Twirled for all our Survivor 50 takes. Listen to PodMeets Twirled on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Agency, the ability to know that we're the experts in our own body. On the podcast, cultivating her space,

Dr. Dom and Terry Lomax create a space where black women can show up fully and be heard. I wholeheartedly think, you know, you hit 30. You shouldn't have to share one with anybody. Mm-hmm. From navigating friendships and healing to setting boundaries and prioritizing your mental health. These are real honest conversations. We don't always get to have out loud. Totally unreasonable with different parts of life, right?

Like, oh, have all three meals and make sure you're mindful during all of them? Absolutely not. During one meal, I'm standing. I'm standing and handing my children food. Because healing, empowerment, and resilience aren't just ideas. Their practices. And this Mental Health Awareness Month, there's no better time to pour back into yourself. Listen to cultivating her space on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Okay, this is a game I did not bet, but I would take Washington Plus 8.

And I think this game's going to be low-scoring and ugly. First of all, the Washington football team, five and two over the last seven games. They've held opponents to 20 points or fewer in each of the last seven games. Alex Smith starts, five-and-0 last five starts. The Bucks have struggled against playoff teams this year. They're one in five. Brady's been awful at night. And if you look at Tom's last six-road playoff games, he's two and four.

That's it. with a passer rating, well below his average. I think this game's ugly. I think Washington's defensive front controls much of Tampa's run game. I don't think they'll be able to run the ball. So whoever wins, I would take Washington plus eight. What would the wise guys say? A clean agreement here.

This is a classic. This is an old school play. You're just getting extra value. You're going against the very public, Tom Brady. Let's get into this idea of the nighttime game. because, you know, there's, if you look at games themselves, I'm talking about chess, I'm talking about poker, there's either games with perfect information or imperfect information. So chess, you know everyone's pieces. Now it's how good you are at it. Poker, you don't know the other players'

cards, so you have to make guesses estimates. We're estimating right now is this nighttime effect really meaningful or not? But the reality is, when you look at the numbers, if it is meaningful, it's a big deal. The last seven night games. for Tom Brady. His teams are 0 and 7 against the spread. Now remember, the spread is going to account for everything else who was hurt in the game, how good the opponent was. That's all covered. So the spread is saying 0 for 7, and by the way, the margin in those games away from the spread, 14 points a game. So the spread has overestimated Tom Brady's team by two touchdowns the last seven times on average he's played at night. Thus, we have imperfect information. We don't know if that's just kind of

fluky or true, but if it's true, it's big. So I think you've got to at least account for it a little bit. And I got one more factor. I mean, you had Alex Smith, 5 and 1 as a starter. They're scoring nine more points a game. You've got all that. One last thought, though. If the bucks do get up big, let's say they get up 10, and it's the fourth quarter's

just starting, does Tampa want to expose Brady to some meaningless, potentially hits with that great D line? I think they get conservative late and the chance of a back door is open for Washington where typically with an offense not that good you wouldn't think so. I think Tampa gets conservative with the lead to avoid Brady getting exposed to hits and thus I like Washington even more. Again, this is a game I would not bet Chicago 9 and a half. I'd probably try to tease it up if I could to 10, 11 if I could.

Listen, the Bears offense is better since week 12. 7th and points, 6th in rushing yards. using David Montgomery. Trubisky has played in the postseason. Chicago can death by a thousand cuts, but I do think they won't have a ton of time to throw. They'll protect Breeze here. And so I think, you know, I would take Chicago and all the points. I'd tease it to get more.

I don't love this spot. I could see New Orleans. They're going to win. It's by how much. What would the wise guys determine here? I tell you, I think this one would be split, but I am under and, I've told you about my I don't bet against Belichick. I don't bet against Sean Payton at this point.

Because what he's able to do, I don't understand it. I can look at most teams, look at their stats, and say these stats will lead to this result. And in the long term, I'm right, meaning the stats and the scores line up. Wouldn't you agree, Colin, that Sean Payton's ability with backup quarterbacks, with Bridgewater, Lachies? Oh, it's different class. I mean, Andy Reid's second, but it's, you know, he's the only guy doing that in the league and perhaps in league history.

And I agree. And I think it's a situation where everyone's telling me about the strength of Breeze's arm and they're telling me about this. And I was, you know, right on straight out of Vegas, I was talking to Jonas Knox about it. And he was telling me all the limitations of Breeze. And I'm like, well, wait a minute, isn't the point of all the qualities a quarterback and other players are supposed to have

his scoring points? Well, how many points are the Saints score? It's like there's all these reasons they shouldn't be doing what they're doing, but they are. And thus, I don't want to go against the Saints. Now, this line has gone up. I mean, this thing opened up around seven and a half, and it's up to 10, and there's no injury news or anything. This is just the pros are back in the Saints here.

One last thing. A lot of optimism now in some circles with Trubisky. Let's look at the defenses he's played against during this nice run. Lions, Texans, Vikings, Jags. That could be four of the seven worst defenses. And then against Green Bay, they only had 16 points. So I'm a pessimist with Tribisky, so I'm going to disagree with you on the Bears. Thoughts on the Browns and Steelers next on our Saturday morning podcast with R.J. Bell of Pregame.com.

Stick around. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days I'd put on 10 pounds, I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment,

and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Hey everyone, it's Ryder Strong and Will Ferdell from PodMeets World.

And now the PodMeets Twirled podcast. We're two men who were completely clueless to reality TV, who now have covered Dancing with the Stars, traitors, and we're gearing up for the season finale of Survivor. So yeah, now we're experts. I know we annoyed a lot of our listeners by our severe lack of survivor knowledge. That is the point of the show. I'm just going to remind you. I have watched some Survivor.

I obviously haven't watched enough. Did people not like it? Yeah. Just because we? Yeah. We'll be recapping the big conclusion in the 50th season. From the final attempts at gameplay to the desperate pleas of finalists to a bunch of Ha, ooh.

Ha, ha, ooh. Again, we are experts. So make sure to tune in to Pod Meets Twirled for all our Survivor 50 takes. Listen to PodMeets Twirled on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Agency. The ability to know that we're the experts in our own body. On the podcast, cultivating her space, Dr. Dom and Terry Lomax create a space where black women can show up fully and be heard. I wholeheartedly think, you know, you hit 30, you shouldn't have to share a room with anybody.

Mm-hmm. From navigating friendships and healing to setting boundaries and prioritizing your mental health. These are real honest conversations. We don't always get to have out loud. Totally unreasonable with different parts of life, right? Like, oh, have all three meals and make sure you're mindful during all of them? Absolutely not. During one meal, I'm standing.

I'm standing and handing my children food. Because healing, empowerment, and responsibility. resilience aren't just ideas, their practices. And this Mental Health Awareness Month, there's no better time to pour back into yourself. Listen to cultivating her space on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. All right, RJ Bell, welcome back. This is, I already bet this game and I got Pittsburgh minus four. And now it's up to six or seven. I like Pittsburgh here for very simple reasons. First of all, you know, there's the offensive line issue, the COVID outbreak.

Baker's the only quarterback this weekend playing potentially that has no playoff experience. Everybody else has a quarterback if golf plays with playoff experience. But the Steelers' offense has allowed the fewest sacks and their defense has the most sacks. What does that tell you? Big Ben will be the more comfortable quarterback this weekend. Olivier Vernon is out for Cleveland. and that is an understated loss. So I'm going in to a playoff game

where the home team quarterback is more comfortable than the younger, least experience, smaller, less talented quarterback is on the road. So I would lay the points here with Pittsburgh. What are the wise guys think? My favorite pick of the week agreement here.

I will say this, and I'm doing this for your benefit, Colin, is there's a whole contingency out there of shows that will talk about all their great lines. get ahead it, you know, so I'm assuming you do bet the game sometimes and not be three points better than the... No, no, no, no. Listen, I'll be, I'll be for, I'll be honest with you. That's a running joke, though, is on certain shows, you'll be like, oh yeah, I bet that at nine and a half, but now

it's six. You know, it's interesting about this, RJ. I've thought about this. I've been doing Blazing Five forever. But as more people are betting and the market is more sophisticated, I have thought about changing by Blazing Five, maybe not even doing it, or doing something where I make picks during the week so I can add true value to a gambler or a better's life instead of, but this was a week where I really thought the Rams opening number. At four and a half, I thought that was an incredible number. I thought it was a rare playoff miss by the books. Oh, and listen, the thing is, if I could give one piece of advice and that's all you take away from anything colonize ever done, whatever we might do, it's going to be this.

you cannot bet at one place at one time. And really what you're doing when you do your Blazing Five is one moment in time on Friday. You're saying here's one line I can pick from. That's the hardest way to win. Of course it is. And by the way, even I called to Blazing Five. If I was smart, I would have done the Blazing Three. Because that's about as many games as I like every weekend.

I mean, the thing is what's nice about the five is it's the same as the Super Contest, which is the big. And I can tell you this, we've done three straight years. in the gold contest, me and Fasic, and we've had three winning years, and it's been an amazing run, but it is so hard to pick that fourth and fifth game. Always. It really is. So, again, you don't ever do that with the, I get the best line, so I thought it was worth joking about it. Because the listeners are, some might think, oh, well, Collins always get, no, you,

you're probably getting the best line 60% of the time, meaning if you make an early bat, I bet you have a better number about 60% of the time come game day. Does that sound right? always feel this, RJ, I always feel there are two lines every weekend that deteriorate. So I always feel like, and this week there were two in the playoffs, which is rare. But I always feel like Vegas makes about a mistake a weekend. And then there's another one that may not be a mistake, but I just love the number. At that point, it's all kind of the same to me.

I always feel like you get some breaks. I mean, I bet games and had a bad COVID break this year. I had a very bad September, October. Why? Because there was no preseason. And with COVID, I had no understanding of what anybody was into about November. So it was just one of those years where, listen, I was bad. I was bad the first seven, eight weeks. But I think generally your numbers, you don't get huge breaks,

but I do think Vegas makes about a mistake a weekend. And remember, last thing on this is when you bet early, you're betting against the odds makers and some early betters. When you bet late, you're betting against the world. the world with collective IQ, the wisdom of crowds is actually smarter than that first group. We've done studies. The industry has done studies on this. If you look at the accuracy of the line about 24 hours after it opens, so let's say the early line,

it is so much less accurate than the closing line. During the week, smart betters will take away the value. So the earlier you can bet, the better. So quickly, though, about this Steelers game, my favorite pick of the week, I think there's two handicaps here. Handicap number one is Pittsburgh at minus four, which was the opener, or three and a half was the opener, but minus four was a good early line. The question is, who do you like there? I like Pittsburgh, but I don't love them. But now there's been one other big factor, which is the COVID outbreak and the coach is gone.

I believe the market has under-adjusted for that. When you consider that you've got a coach that has been very meaningful for the Browns, he's been a Sherpa in a way for Mayfield, who is a fragile player, it seems. and he's also the play caller. So you eliminate that play caller. NFL teams don't have experience with their play caller not being there. This will be a one-time, first-time thing. I think two points from four to six

was insufficient, and that's why you added up. I like Pittsburgh. And finally, I used to call this the bonus pick. I would not have bet this, although I do like Baltimore. This is kind of, we should call it the learning pick, the teaching pick. So Ravens, Tennessee,

I really like the way the Ravens are playing. And the road team, by the way, is one, each of the last four postseason games between these two teams. The Ravens' offense is the best rushing offense. But I think the key here is their defense. They've held each of their last three opponents under 15 points. And I think the Titans defense has two problems, a no pass rush and below average secondary talent.

Now, can Lamar take advantage of that? I don't know. But I just feel like I'm getting the worst. unit in the playoffs is Tennessee's defense. So I'm going to go Baltimore minus three or four here. What would the wise guys say? I disagree with this, but I think most wise guys would agree with you. So let's call this a split. By the way, you were talking about home field. This, if you look at the last two NFL seasons, now let's accept the fact this year home field was less. Yes. Because of lack of crowd. But last season was normal, obviously. Last two seasons, there's been about

23,000 points scored in the NFL. The home team has scored eight more points. 23,000 points and only eight additional points. It's like, you know, 50.1% versus 49.9. It's like there is no home field advantage. I get it this year. I don't get it last year. There's something that's changed.

Next season will be fascinating, hopefully with the crowd's back to see what happens. Here's my question I'll have to you as we talk this game through quickly is how much do you account for in your handicap the fact that Tennessee's beaten them twice last two games within a year right and number two how Lamar in general has really struggled in not only the playoffs but seemingly the more competitive games well let's start with this the second one I think Lamar's gotten much better in the red zone this year um I I think Lamar's a better player right now than he was a year ago and I also think he's playing with house money There's no pressure on the Ravens this year.

Bills are taking all the AFC attention away. Kansas City in the NFC, Green Bay. Nobody's talking Baltimore. So I think Lamar's improvement, especially in the Red Zone, and the lack of pressure, is the real edge here. Beating them previously, you know, the way I look at that is maybe there's some psychology. But, you know, it is, RJ, it's the playoffs. You get everybody's best shot here. Mm-hmm.

Sometimes I think it's matchup. I think there's matchup. Like, if you listen to Gray CoSalle on your show, you realize, no matter how much time I've spent in the NFL, I don't know what he knows when he looks at the film. And thus, there's times, there's factors that only show themselves, I think, through the scores. And the sad thing is there's not enough games to see that all the time, right? In baseball, there's so many games you can let the scores tell you the truth underlying. I think sometimes in football, we just see a peak of that truth. And maybe there's a peak that Tennessee's got something going on that Baltimore can't handle.

I will say this about Lamar. I disagree with you in the following way. Maybe in the moment, if they lose, Lamar doesn't get a ton of heat. But now it's going to be next season, 0 and 3 in the playoff. I mean, he's got to feel the accumulated concern of that. And I'll end with this one. Here's the stats on Lamar. When they've been over a field goal favor, so they were clear favorites in the game,

they're 24 and 4. with Lamar. When they're not a bigger favor, they're six and five. So I think where Baltimore's confusing people is because they win, the games they're supposed to win so easily. And there is a bully element. There's a Mike Tyson quality. I call it the Mike Tyson quality. In mismatches, it was jaw-dropping. The fight was over before it started. But if you gave him, even a Mitch Blood Green, an average fighter with length that could keep Mike away. suddenly Mike looked like an incredibly flawed fighter. He looked like the world's best fighter against a tomato can,

an incredibly flawed against a long, angular athletic fighter. In Baltimore, when they really have a team's number running the football, the games are over in eight minutes. But you get him in a regular fight where they got to throw or they fall behind, to your point, they don't look the same. That is great, though I think the blood green wasn't that outside of a nightclub when they fall. It was like Rocky 5, I think. But last thing on this, and you make such a great point. Typically, people might have heard of the Pythagorean wins, and the idea was so many points that you score, it doesn't matter if it's to go up 30 to 37. It's still the same seven.

And math tells us, typically those points all are equal, even though it doesn't seem logical. I think the Ravens are the exceptions. They are maybe the best team ever as a big favor. They're an average good team when it's competitive. I think Tennessee is competitive. I like Tennessee here. All right. Go to his site, pregame.com. At RJ in Vegas, you get a lot of wisdom.

I certainly learn a lot, and we hope you've enjoyed our Saturday morning podcast. Thanks, RJ. Thank you. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob O'Don, Kirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

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