The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - 49ers Dominate Seahawks, Seattle Needs To Draft A QB, Why The Jets Won’t Upgrade At Head Coach, Sharp or Square - Week 6 NFL Bets

Episode Date: October 11, 2024

Colin reacts to the 49ers beating the Seahawks on Monday Night Football! He explains why the Seahawks have to move off Geno Smith even if it means trading star wide receiver D.K. Metcalf to trade up in the draft to get a quarterback (4:15), and why the Jets won’t be able to land a better head coach than Robert Saleh (9:30).  Finally, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 6 of the NFL plus the marquee Big Ten matchup between Ohio State and Oregon 21:15 - Jets vs Bills 23:30 - Broncos vs Chargers 26:16  - Bears vs Jags 29:30 - Packers vs Cardinals 32:00 - Commanders vs Ravens 41:00 - Bengals vs Giants 43:00 - Lions vs Cowboys 47:30 - Falcons vs Panthers 50:00 - Colts vs Titans 51:00 - Patriots vs Texans 53:30 - Oregon vs Ohio State (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!  #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes.

Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tauntons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith ruling. of two. Listen to Stuff to Blow Your Mind on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. On the Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me.

84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it with our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year.

I don't think there's a more important year for black. people. Listen to look back at it on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th.

You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok's podcast network on TikTok.

The volume. The roller coaster of an NFL season is moving right along, and it promises to be a month full of tricks, treats, and of course, touchdowns. And draft king sports book an official sports betting partner of the NFL is the number one place to always bet touchdowns. running it in from the one or an 80-yard bomb, we don't care how they score them. We want to bet them. Draft Kings hurt us and is delivering. If you're ready to place your first bet,

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Bonus bets expire 168 hours after issue. For additional terms or responsible gaming resources, see dkNG.com slash FT Ball. All right, little instant reaction. And 15 minutes from now, you're going to hear from Chad Millman, Sharper Square. Thank you for all joining us. San Francisco. The Niners got off to a big first half league, coasted to a 36-24 win. I never felt it was really in doubt.

You probably didn't either. I think it was a nice performance by Brock Purdy, who had three, touchdowns, 255 yards. We talked about this today on FS1, that this was a big night for Brock Purdy. They're a very good top four scoring team in the league in the first half. That's a lot of that's on Kyle Shanahan's scripted plays. And Brock Purdy's incredibly efficient in running those plays smartly. Distribution's excellent. And they jump out to lead. They have not been a good second half offense. They have not been a good red zone offense. So tonight meant something because you have have to. I mean, they were down to a third running back tonight beyond, you know, Christian McCaffrey's

out, his sub out. So I thought it was really important. Kittle had a nice night. Debo had touches. Brandon Ayuk still doesn't feel like I'm getting the full Brandon Ayuk. But this was a big night for Brock Purdy. That it's on the road. You have the better roster. You have the better coach. But it's a tough environment. It is a rival. Those those divisional games are tough. But I do think week six in the NFL, this is week six. I think you start to see a separation. between the posers and the pretenders and the real teams. You're going to see the separation of quarterbacks. I'm going to take Justin Herbert over Bo Nix this weekend.

I took tonight Brock Purdy, who I think is better than Gino Smith. I think you're going to see some separation this week. Bad teams and mediocre teams can convince themselves for the first four to five weeks that can play. And then you see separation. And you also see improvement by some young players like Caleb Williams has obviously he had a very good last two weeks. So, you know, Gino Smith is now 0 and 5. I went and looked it up tonight, O'N5 officially against San Francisco. He never plays particularly well. No, he didn't have a run game tonight, whereas Brock Purdy did have a run game. But he's been sacked 15 times,

four touchdowns, five picks, mid-80s pass-eretting against San Francisco. And that's a real deal, is that, you know, you can, I mean, it's okay if Lamar Jackson loses to Kansas City. Everybody's losing to Kansas City in Mahomes and Andy Reed. But you got to beat those divisional foes. Brady owned the AFC East, Big Ben for years, owned Cincinnati and Cleveland. And Gino just doesn't play well against his rivals. So right now you have Brock Purdy's better than Gino, Kyler Murray's better than Gino, and Matt Stafford in division's better than Gino Smith. Seattle's got the fourth best quarterback in division. Listen, the Darnold story, the Baker story, the Gino story of redemption. I love. But Sam and Baker,

her better than Gino. He's number three on that list. So I thought Seattle should have taken a quarterback in last year's draft. I would have gone after Michael Pennock's local kid and had his offensive coordinator, Coach Grubb, who's now the OC of the Seahawks. But Atlanta gets him. And I also think they have to consider moving maybe a D.K. Metcalfe. I just, I don't know. It doesn't. I thought Al Michaels hit on it tonight, or maybe it was Kirk Curb Street. D.K. sometimes doesn't feel engaged, catching the ball with his body. I just, I just, I don't know. You get the occasional slash plays, but I just don't feel like he's always engaged. And, you know, sometimes players just get tired of teams and environments.

And I don't know. There's a lot of receivers on an annual basis from college to pro. I think D.K. is a really good player explosive. Somebody would be interested. But that just feels like you could move off it and garner a good draft pick. And that draft pick you could use to move up. Because Seattle's going to win some games this year. As soon as their defensive line gets healthy, they're going to win some games.

They won't be a top seven or eight drafting team. So if you have to move up, you have to give up a couple of seconds, a couple of thirds, whatever you've got to do to move up. But I think Seattle needs to go get a quarterback. You cannot have the fourth best quarterback in the division. Right now, Gino, again tonight, a couple of picks, 30 of 51. He's a better story than he is a quarterback. Donald this year is a great story.

And so is Baker. but they're also really good quarterbacks currently. Last two weeks, Seattle's been dominated time of possession. So, you know, and you fall into these big holes, they really weren't competitive, even though I had it tied at 10 against the Giants. If you watch the game, they were dominated. Their offense was rarely on the field. Tonight, again, you're losing time of possession.

And some of that's just the defense with Mike McDonald. They're all banged up. They can't make stops. But you can talk yourself into a lot of different things. You've got to have the first or second best quarterback in your division. now in the AFC, who leads the AFC East, the best quarterback in the division, Josh Allen. Lamar Jackson

leads the AFC North. He's playing the best in the division. C.J. Stroud and Patrick Malmes. Okay. And Kirk Cousins, you know, he's over there in the NFC South, best quarterback in that division. So, yep, I think Seattle has to have a big

offseason. I like John Snyder, the GM. I think he's sharp. He and Pete Carroll didn't see eye to eye. And it was a little bit of a power struggle near the end. But go get a quarterback, go get, accumulate some draft picks, take a big swing on this. I think it's a better quarterback college draft than we thought six months ago. You know, you start watching these kids play. They all improve. I'd make the move. But the overall tonight, my take is this was a really important performance for Brock Purdy,

and I thought he delivered. He was on script in the first half with Shanahan and then made some plays, moved around with his feet, a couple of George Kittle moments. One of those to George Kittle was a complete dart. Here's something else I want to throw out another topic before we get to Chad Millman. So I'm not a huge fan of the Robert Saul of firing because I think what happens is that you end up with an interim coach and everybody plays inspired football for the interim coach and you kind of get stuck because the players all like him. A lot of times you get stuck higher in the interim coach. But I was texting a couple of coaches, one former coach and another coach tonight. And last year, there was one really good job

available because of the quarterback. The Chargers and Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh, the number one candidate swooped it up. This is going to be a rare year when Philly, Dallas, Jacksonville, Chicago, and Cincinnati potentially could all have coaching openings. Now, Chicago's playing well. And I think Iber Fluse at least knows his side of the ball, Matt Eberfluse. But you could potentially have Jalen Hertz, DAC, Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, or Joe Burrow available. So this is one of those years for the New York Jets. Aaron Rogers, 40, hasn't really been a great quarterback in his last 20 starts. Prickly, kind of expensive. You know, the Jets, by firing Sala, not only do you get into that interim head coach dilemma

where the players love the interim head coach and play inspired football, and you kind of lose the locker room, potentially, if you don't hire him, because he's a guy's guy, he's an alpha, he's a former player. He's well, very well liked, according to all the people in New York and the media, very well liked. So, but also, this is going to be, the Jets are not. going to be the first choice. I mean, Philadelphia's got a better quarterback in Jalen Hertz. I take him over Aaron today. He's younger and in his prime. It's a better roster, better ownership. I mean, I think Dallas has a better quarterback in Dak and a better owner. You know, Chicago and Jacksonville, I mean, I get Caleb Williams on a rookie contract in Cincinnati. Again, Burrough or Aaron Rogers

at 41 years old. And don't forget, Buffalo, Josh Allen. I like Sean McDermott. But that has been a noisy coaching staff. Game management again this year is a topic of conversation. Keep your eye on the Buffalo bill opening. And if the Giants, I think this would be a catastrophic mistake. If they moved off Brian Daibel, Buffalo, in my opinion, would swoop him up in five minutes. I don't think the Giants are going to make that mistake. But add Buffalo, that's the best job

available. Good roster, solid GM, non-caotic ownership, Josh Allen. Those jobs just don't open up. That's like Matt LaFleur and Green Bay job, where Aaron was closer to his prime. Those jobs just don't become available. So if the Jets are, the Jets want to get into a sweepstakes for the best coach, they may end up with a fourth or fifth best choice. Look at these quarterbacks that could need coaches, Hertz, Allen, Burrow, Caleb, Dak. Aaron is way, way past his prime and continues to be a little, in my opinion, subversive. He says one thing to the media, well, you're not buying, right? You're not buying that that Woody Johnson phone call. They were just wishing each other an early happy Thanksgiving, right? You don't buy it. I don't buy it. Nobody buys that.

So I was talking to a coach tonight, and he said, it's a good year to be looking for a job. So that's the dilemma when you sort of bum rush Robert Sala, is that the top candidates look at that, and this top candidate, somebody that I think will be available for a job, they kind of look at how you treated the last guy. And the last guy was actually pretty good at his side of the ball, Robert Sala. So that's always the dilemma. You keep seeing the same teams in the top 10 in the draft. And we always blame coaches and quarterbacks, but so often it's really, it's the guys upstairs.

So nice win by the Niners tonight. Really nice win in Seattle. Don't have to punt the season, but you have to upgrade at the sports most important position. I think we can all agree on that. The roller coaster of an NFL season is moving right along, and it promises to be a month full of tricks, treats, and of course, touchdowns. And Draft King Sports Book an official sports betting partner of the NFL is the number one place to always bet touchdowns. Running it in from the one or an 80-yard bomb, we don't care how they score them. We want to bet them. Draft Kings hurt us and is delivering.

If you're ready to place your first bet, make it simple. bet on a player scoring a touchdown. Go to draftkings.com and draft king's sportsbooks app, make your pick. Here's a reason for new customers to do a touchdown dance of their own. Bet five, that's it. Bet five bucks, get 200 instantly in bonus bets. Draft king, the number one place to bet touchdowns. Download their app takes 90 seconds.

The code is Colin, C-O-L-I-N. Use the code column. Bet five bucks, get 200 bonus bets instantly. Only on draft kings, the crown is yours. Gambling problem, call 1-800 gambler. In New York, call 8778-8-8-Hope-N-Y or text Hope-N-Y 4667-369. In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling. Call 888-789-777 or visit ccpg.org.

Please play responsibly on behalf of Boot Hill Casino and Resort in Kansas. 21 and over, age and eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Void in Ontario. Bonus beds expire 168 hours after issuance. For additional terms and responsible gaming resources, see dkng.com slash FT Ball. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment.

And the next, we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at Tickford. TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tapped Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jek.

And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. Clearly, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now.

Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast. or wherever you get your podcasts.

Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hardway with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Keer Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tript Fantine, Ryan Clark. Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it.

and we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth, or are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro.

Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, is we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, learn the hard way. Open your free,

iHeartRadio app search learn the hard way and listen now hey this is robert from the stuff to blow your mind podcast joe and i are both lifelong star wars fan so we're celebrating may the fourth with a brand new week of fun thought-provoking star wars related episodes join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far far away such as the biology of ton tons and wampas on the ice planet hot or the practicality and corporate business sense of the sith rule of two listen to stuff to blow your mind on the the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, time for another edition of Sharp or Square with my buddy Chad Millman, CCO Action Network, all odds provided by Draft King. So last year, I had a rough first month and I caught fire.

And one of the reasons I caught fire is I started noticing a trend in my picks, is that I was overthinking the room. And as this league has become more quarterback-centric, when all else fails, the best quarterback is winning the games regardless of the spread. And that Monday night's a great example, as everything told you, oh, those unlucky saints. And then two plays in, you're like, I'm betting against Patrick Mahomes over Derek Carr. So a great example of that, to me, this week, I'm going to inverse it. Aaron Rogers, since December of 2022, has had one three hundred,

year game. In that time, Davis Mills has had a couple. Okay. Desmond Ritter has had more than one. Is that because he's a pretty passer and we tend to embrace pretty longer, the aging supermodel. We grow up with them. We can't let pretty go.

We can let Peyton Manning was great, but he wasn't pretty. Aaron's pretty. He's not a very good quarterback anymore. He's not an efficient. quarterback. So Josh Allen is really good. They're getting a bit healthier. This is a team that's gone through a chaotic week. They're still banged up on the offensive line. Josh Allen is significantly better than Aaron Rogers. I am swallowing the two and a half points. I'm going against the high energy of a interim coach. Let's go backwards, sharper square. I mean,

it's square, as square as can be, you're going to take a road favorite in the division. That is a trend that will work against you over time. You are going to buy a team, well, the bills obviously aren't a two-game losing streak. You're going against a team that is much more undervalued in the Jets playing at home because they are going through a coaching change and because there has been all this chaos in their organization for the past month. So you're really playing against into what the public wants. The public, by the way, are betting the bills at about a 85 to 90% clip. And that's another time when you want to fade the public.

So it's square. This line is moved in the bills direction. All the money is coming. The bets are on the bills. The wise guys have bet this down to two. It goes back up to two and a half. They take it again. It goes back down to two.

Wise guys are on the jets. JETS. I do not believe, although I said the Denver Broncos, would be significantly better. They were my choice. last year I said the Rams are not a six-win team. This year I said the Broncos personnel offensively is not a five-win team. They're going to win eight or nine, probably don't make the playoffs. They're not on a three-game heater. That said, Bo Nix against Justin Herbert, who's

healthy with both tackles and offensive coach off a buy, Chargers minus two and a half at Denver. Again, I'll take the divisional road favorite. It is a mismatch at quarterback. I do not believe the Denver Broncos are a four-game winning streak team. I am selling them at a high point sharper square. Dude, there's a couple games this week where there is zero consensus and very strong opinions on both sides. And this is one of those games. I will say that I'm with you.

My favorites co-host Simon Hunter Professional Better is with you. This line was at three, got bet down to two and a half. then it goes back up to three, then it gets bet down. What that is telling you is that when the game is at two and a half, professionals, a certain section of professionals

love the charters, and when the game is at three, a different group likes the Broncos. And they are basically just playing each other right now. They are just betting back and forth, back and forth. And like, what's interesting about these games?

And we've talked a little bit about this. When it comes to people like Jim Harbaugh and also people like Dan Campbell, they are building from the inside out. They are building from the line of scrimmage. And with Harbaugh and Campbell both, it's really been about the offensive line. So Joe Alt coming back,

hopefully Rashon Slater, coming back for the Chargers. That will mitigate the Broncos' greatest strength, which is their pass rush, which this year is top five in pressure rate and is really the reason why the Broncos have been staying in the games they're staying. So to me, I like the chargers here because I think that they have the better quarterback

and I don't believe in Bo Nicks yet. I think they've win with some smoke and mirrors right now, but it is, you are not going to find a sharp side or a square side on this. I will say the Broncos are a very public dog because they've been winning, the public is coming in. So if you're looking for how to fade, you do want to fade the Broncos. Let's go to London.

I think Caleb Williams and his offensive cohorts went to Shane Waldron and said, we're not a Pop Warner team. Give us more. Since that time, Caleb Williams is completing 71% of his throws and doesn't have a turnover. The Jaguars just got out of a long losing streak and almost gave that game a one. way. Whereas the bears, I can look at them and go, excellent defensive coaching. And I can look at Caleb Williams and say, ascending young star quarterback. There is nothing about the Jaguars. I can definitively say I like. The bears are starting to add to the things I like. We know that

Iber Flues can coach defense. That's inarguable. It's like Robert Sala. You don't have to love him. He knew defense. I'm going to take the bears. My mind. us one and a half in London, favorites do well overseas, Sharper Square. Favorites are, I think, 35 and 10. I don't know why. Right? And by the way, I think it's something like 30, 14, and one against the spread, including this past week, Minnesota beating up on the Jets, right?

So the wise guys have been betting the Jags in this spot. they're not fully bought in on the bears. They feel like the bears have beaten bad teams. And until the Panthers, you know, they didn't look that great, beaten the Colts. They didn't look that great, beaten the Rams. I agree with you what you're seeing about Caleb Williams. He's definitely taking steps. And it's not like the Jags defense is anything that is lighting up the league or that people

are afraid of. And to your point, like Doug Peterson, after that touchdown pass to Alec Pierce by Joe Flacco in that game, I thought Doug Peterson wanted to disappear into a hole. Like he was on the balls of his feet, his elbows on his knees, like he looked devastated. Like, I don't know what to do with this team anymore. So this is not a good team, but they're still betting the Jags. And I'll be honest with you, it's all trend-based and model-based. There is nothing on the field that makes any professional better look at this and say, oh, yeah,

I got to take the Jags. This is where, by the way, your quarterback theory might play out because... Best quarterback wins. Yeah, the better quarterback wins. And I don't think there's anyone who will say that Caleb Williams isn't ascendant and that Trevor Lawrence is a little bit plateaued or even regressing right now. I think some of the things that the wise guys like, if it's anything, it's about the travel. There is a very significant trend and record of the team that has...

played in London before performing better because it is so sort of dislocating for both teams that when you've had that experience, it plays to your strength. So I have this belief when there's a line, most lines are three, three and a half, two and a half, six and a half, seven, seven and a half. But when the line's four and a half to five, what they're telling you is one team is clearly better. And that tells me that Green Bay minus five is better than Arizona. So I tend to believe that young quarterbacks, Jordan Love still qualifies as that at home are more comfortable. I think Jordan Love isn't totally healthy, but I think he's getting there now. Christian Watson practice this week.

I picked Green Bay to win the division. Jordan Love's injury slowed that down. I have seen now a half here or a half there where they look really good. I think they put it all together. Arizona is a celebratory young team that awful win could be flat. I don't trust them week to week. I would swallow the points five and take Green Bay Sharper Square. Totally sharp. It's the side.

The Cardinals are one of those public teams. We just talked about it with the Broncos. They're fun to watch. Yeah. Like they're really fun to watch. And look, they just had their Super Bowl. Right? The Cardinals right now are in second place in their division, and the Niners are in third because they're both two and three, and the Cardinals beat the Niners. The challenge with Kyler Murray is there's so much inconsistency, and we liked what we saw, Trey McBride, but again, like, they won that game because at the end of it, the Niners didn't have a kicker. And so they had to make really unorthodox decisions when they were in the red zone. when otherwise they might have been kicking field goals.

And if not for a fumble, the Cardinals don't get the ball back and they don't get a chance to drive for the game-winning kick, right? So we have to take some of this cardinal ascendancy with a little bit of a grain of salt. And I think I'm seeing the same thing that you are with the Packers. Number one, Matt LaFleure is a genius when it comes to scheming. He is clearly going to be a better coach than Jonathan Gannon is going to be. And I also think the Packers' defense this year, their defense, defensive backfield especially, very opportunistic.

Already more interceptions this year through, that was before last week than they had all of last year. So while there are still holes in their defense, they're at least getting the turnover that they hadn't been getting in the past. And to me, I feel like we are three weeks into Jordan Love being back. This is the first game back where he's not going to be facing a really challenging defense at home, i.e. Brian Flores and the Vikings. We saw what they did in the second half when they made the adjustments and were able to come back against the Vikings.

I agree with you. Wise guys agree with you. Packers are the side. So commanders plus six and a half is my side. Here's why. Lamar Jackson eats the NFC because you can't duplicate aesthetically, stylistically what he doesn't practice, except Washington can. They have Lamar Jackson Light. So they see Lamar Jackson Light in practice every day. I'm also a believer until you prove otherwise, I'm going to believe what my eyes tell me. Washington's really good. Way too good to give them six and a half. If they wouldn't have been the league's tire fire for a decade, you'd say this line's ridiculous. If anybody else was playing this well for five weeks, any other team may be outside of Carolina that would be complete buy-in.

There's utter skepticism. They're good. They have Lamar Light. Washington's seen this at practice. I'm taking the point, sharper square. So it's square. But when you look at the numbers here, the betting tickets are on the commanders.

They are the fly-high team that everybody loves right now. There's no doubt about it. But you can see the money is on the Ravens. And when you have a split between tickets and money, tickets represents the public, money represents the sharps, right? And these guys have been looking to sell the commanders. So it's very possible. They will continue to be wrong, and you are right, right?

Because they wanted to sell the commanders last week, and they lost. They wanted to sell the commanders the week before, and they lost. They are going to keep doubling, tripling down on selling the commanders until they're eventually right. Matchup-wise, this does play to the Ravens. strengths. They are a tremendous running team right now, one of the best in the league, and they are going against a terrible, terrible run defense, especially in early downs. Now, we've said this before. The Ravens last year in the AFC title game, if they had just run the ball, they win that game. Instead, they put it in Lamar's hand. So you have to hope that

they actually go with the game plan that will give them the best chance to win. Historically, teams that are overachieving like the commanders. And when I say overachieving, meaning they are covering the point spread by about five points per game. Those teams going forward in every game thereafter until there is enough regression that it evens out, cover it about a 43% clip. This is what really worries Ravens betters, okay? Underdogs this year, six plus points, 11 and 8 straight up, 6. team two and one against the spread. And this is one of those weeks. We got a few of these games. We got this one. We got the Patriots. We got the Browns. We got the Eagles. We got the Panthers.

And the Falcons. Like it's a more big spreads than we've had at any point so far this season. But here is what's really scaring Ravens backers. You could see this game. Ravens are up by 13, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7. Any number like that, and the back door is wide open, and the Ravens past defense is soft, and Jaden Daniels will not quit, this commander's team will not quit. They might know they're not going to win the game,

but they might score that back door. So it's going to be a sweat. It is not going to be a, oh yeah, it's a blowout in by the middle of the third quarter, Ravens' bedders feel like they can, you know, turn on a cooking show. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.

I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clivert Show isn't just a podcast.

It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need. to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people. I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a here.

unpack what went down and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 was big to me, not just because of crack. I'm down to talk about crack on day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack, so I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now, so.

Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan Clark.

Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it. And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on Earth. Are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro.

Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust. I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way. Open your free iHeartRadio app.

Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of taun tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two.

Listen to stuff to blow your mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Okay, one thing that almost guarantees consistency, college or pro football, is a really good offensive line. You kind of get the same Detroit team every weekend. People just don't quite realize how good the New York Giants' offensive line is. That Seattle game wasn't close. I don't care what the score was. Mike McDonald's team couldn't get them off the field. Danny Dimes doesn't turn the ball over without Malik neighbors, without Singletary, completely controlled the line of scrimmage.

They're not as good as Detroit. But Cincinnati can't stop anything. And this very quietly, because it's been so bad for so many years, this giant's O line reminds me of the giant's D line. It controls most of the teams at plays. I'm taking the three and a half points, New York plus three and a half at home, sharper square. Totally sharp. I'm surprised you chose this one, not because I don't have faith in your ability to be super sharp, because you truly are a maven of the media, a master of content,

and a man who understands where the audience is going and what they want to hear. But this just felt like the kind of game you'd want to ignore unless it's a primetime game. But you're 100% right. The wise guys are on the Giants here. This line actually, it opened at three and a half. And like you can see in the juice, the Vig, the commission. the way the bookmakers start to play with those things. Normally the numbers at minus 110.

When it starts to go up, minus 115, minus 120, that's basically them saying to you, all right, it's going to move, or the other side plus 115 plus 120. This number is going to move to three. And that's because the wise guys are buying the hook, the half a point, for the Giants, because they feel the same way you do. They think this team has been balling out lately.

Daniel Jones has been playing much better. And Dayball has been calling great game plans the past couple of weeks. And look, like, go back, what was it, three weeks ago, they're playing the commanders. They don't score any touchdowns. And like, that's why they lose that game. I know it's a weird thing to say, oh, look, this team is better than you think. But one ball bounces a different way. And the commanders aren't even six and a half point underdogs.

They're more. And no one's saying, oh, the Giants really shouldn't be any more than the giant. They're saying the Giants should be any more than a field goal against the Bengals at home. So that's an interesting pick by you. So let's go to the best offensive line in football Detroit. So this line was at three and a half. And I said on the air on FS1, if it comes down to three, I'm taking Detroit. So a couple of things.

Dallas is the Arizona Cardinals or the Buffalo Bills of the league. I'm not really sure what team I get. just depends on the matchup and the mood. I get the same, and that's because Dallas has a very left tackle, revolving door, injuries. You don't know what they are with our offensive line. It's matchup based. Detroit's a better team. Detroit is a completely consistent team.

Listen, they give up yards, they do, on the back end. I mean, Gino Smith had 38 first downs against them, and that worries me. But Hutchison and the tackle, the left, tackle for Dallas? Yikes. I know it's a road favorite, but at three sharper square, I like Detroit. Well, it's not sharp, right? Nobody in their right mind is going to say, as a professional better, yes, the right side here is the road favorite and the public side playing in Dallas. But you said something that is so on point, and you talk about quarterbacks and bad quarterbacks and good quarterbacks as being sort of a decision maker for you. For me, more and more it's becoming about

who controls the line of scrimmage. Because to me, that is the most consistent and dependable way a team can define performance and live up to expectations, right? There's going to be some matchup issue at some point on the edges. A running back may get hurt. A quarterback is having a bad game. But offensive line, defensive line consistency is pretty easy to mark. Lions, their top five, top two dominant, not just as an offensive line, but as a defensive line, but when you look at their offensive line across the board, like this is why this team is a top five overall offensive team right now. And to me, what's really fascinating is you look at the Jared Goff game.

He went 18 for 18, but it wasn't Jared Goff going 35, 40 for 400 yards and four touchdowns, working outside of the offense because it was a, you know, a shootout. Jared Goff working within the confines of the offense, Ben Johnson calling the great game, Dan Campbell clearly has said, we're not ourselves these first few games. Let's get back to basics. Football is a violent game. We are built to be violent.

So to me, every advanced metric that every geek can think of favors the lightens here and every other metric when you look at the cowboys and you shake it out, it basically says their defense especially against the run

is trash. I don't know if the wise guys will be with you. I know I will be. We're making it. an executive decision, Colin, we're going with the lines. Okay, the most obvious line of the week, I mean, this is where I feel like this is the squarish to the square lines, and I hate it. Atlanta plays a unbelievable game. Everybody loves Kirk Cousins. It's a standalone game. He throws for over five football fields.

And now, in a division rivalry game, they go to Carolina who's pretty good, but was humiliated, and they have to give up six points. The side is Carolina. It is a corner of a corner TV game. But that to me was the one like, that should be like a three. It's a six. It's the Panthers, Sharper Square. I mean, look, it's sharp. You have to.

And I'm so glad you said it. Like, I was afraid at the end when you're like, give me the game I missed or give me the ugly game that I didn't mention. I was afraid I was going to have to bring this one up because, look, I'm so sick of having to bet on the Carolina Panthers and the lines being so wrong. and yet them still being the wrong side. The Falcons have three wins this season that have come by a combined nine points.

And they probably should have lost all those. In week two, they had a game-winning two-minute drive against the Eagles when the Eagles had a 97.6% win probability with less than two minutes remaining. Week three, game-winning 58-year field goal after the Saints had an 84 and a half percent win probability with 41 seconds left. Week 5, overtime win. Kirk Cousins throws for half a thousand.

The Bucks had a 93% win probability with 22 seconds left. 93% of the tickets are on the Falcons, a nearly touchdown road. favorite. Of course the Panthers are the side of here. Here's why it's super extra scary. The one thing, the Panthers have been great at this season. Top two in run blocking. They are missing two key offensive linemen. And that's really why they got humiliated against the Bears is because all of a sudden the one thing they were great at that the Bears can't defend is the run and they couldn't do anymore. And that's also the same here. Can they run the ball against a weak rush defense for the Falcons? That's going to be the deciding factor. But you still got to pull the trigger.

Finally, give me a game I missed. It's usually an ugly game because I really hit on the big ones. Is there something I missed? He puts on the glasses, by the way, for our podcast audience. Let's get serious now. This is serious. I'm going to look at my notes because truly you did hit every game. I didn't touch the Steelers. Raiders. I didn't touch the Colts. You know, I haven't bet the, I have not bet the Colts all year. They're getting three on the road at Tennessee. I just, and the reason I don't do it is, I never know if Anthony Richardson can get through a game. So I just, I'm not going to touch them. I think that's, I think that's exactly right. And look, what's interesting about that game,

just as an aside, the Colts, the Titans started off as the favorites in that game as minus, as a minus a point favorites. Then it flipped, and all of a sudden, the Titans got as low as plus one and a half. And then when all of a sudden the news came out that Anthony Richardson might be playing, the line flipped back to Tennessee being a two and a half point favorite. Now it's up to three.

So that game's a mess. You want to stay away from games where the line is flipping back and forth, back and forth. I don't want to talk about this game, but every wise guy is on New England. Oh, no, that J-Max pick of the week. He said no Nico Collins,

no Joe Mixing. By the way, they could have easily lost the Buffalo game. They're off a big win. It's a, and it's like they have to be playing. New England's plus seven at home. Yeah, New England's plus seven. And actually, in a lot of places, the line has ticked down to six and a half,

which tells you that the wise guys are on New England because the tickets in this game are all on Houston. And look, I think that the Nico Collins factor is important. CJ Stroud and this offense, they have not been very good on first and second down, and it's putting them in bad spots on third down and fourth down. His security blanket has been Nico Collins, who has been a monster this year,

the best receiver in football. Now he's out. The New England defense is not terrible. It's middle of the road. Their offensive line is awful, but I actually think that plays to some of the quarterback change, which is Drake May. He's going to be a one-reed, two-read,

pull it and run athlete in this game, right? And so it doesn't matter how bad the offensive line is. Some people that say you're throwing this guy to the wolves, kind of doesn't matter. He's going to be out of the pocket. He's going to be running draws, whatever it's going to be. This New England team, it's been playing teams tough. So the wise guys are on New England here.

I'm sorry. Yeah. I hate doing it. I like to apologize to the audience for having to listen to the breakdown. It's so, yeah. It's so, I'm upset that I'm going to have to watch this game. Like, I'm upset that it's honestly the game I've bet the most done so far this week. How about this?

Let me throw you one college game. The college game of the year is Oregon getting about a field goal. It was like four. Now it's down to three against Ohio State. I think they could meet in the playoff. I think Eugene, they've won 34 of 35 at home. Dylan Gabriel's completing almost 80% of his throws. they have their O line right.

I think Ohio State's better. But I think putting kids, I mean, if you go look at Ohio State against top 10 teams, they've actually not been very good the last three years. I think I would take Oregon and the points, sharper square. Yeah, I would too. I think that the quarterback play for Ohio State is, eh, you know, the reason why the receivers keep making so many fantastic catches is because the throws aren't always that good.

And, you know, it's interesting. what did Nick Saban say on game day? He's like, you spend 20 million, it doesn't really matter. You got to spend the right 20 million on the right guys. And I think this is the beginning of a gauntlet for Ohio State. They spent that 20 million at probably right before they're about to have the hardest schedule that they have had in years to get to a national championship contending position. I think we all believe they'll make the playoff, but it's no guarantee. You got Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, 23, 4, like,

that Big 10 now is brutal. So I agree with you. I like Oregon. Chad Millman, CCO Action Network, all odds provided by Draft Kings. Thanks, buddy. Talk to you soon, man. The volume.

Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate, and review. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy. Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics

from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tauntons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to blow your mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

A win is a win. A win is a win. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliford Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Cliford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast.

And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford. and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. On The Look Back at it podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84 was big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down,

and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to Look Back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast.

or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.