The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Bears Are A Disaster, The NBA Needs MAJOR Changes, Sharp or Square - Betting NFL Week 17 + The College Football Playoff

Episode Date: December 27, 2024

Colin reacts to the “unwatchable mess” that resulted in a 6-3 win for the Seahawks over the Bears on Thursday Night Football. He extends his sympathy to Caleb Williams who has obvious tale...nt but can’t overcome the disaster that is the Chicago Bears franchise (3:45). He also argues that the NBA needs to make major changes in order to win back fans in an era of declining ratings (10:15). Then, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 17 of the NFL slate, plus the College Football Playoff Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!  #Volume #Herd  22:00- Blowouts in first round of College Football Playoff 24:15 - Broncos vs Bengals 26:30 - Saints vs Raiders 28:00 - Falcons vs Commanders 30:30 - Bills vs Jets 32:45 - Panthers vs Buccaneers  35:00 - Ohio State vs Oregon 41:45 - Cardinals vs Rams 44:45 - Chad’s Biggest Whif/Hit Of The Year 48:15 - Chargers vs Patriots Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!  #Volume #Herd  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.
Starting point is 00:00:12 We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you.
Starting point is 00:00:30 you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the ice. Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:01:04 Your husband is not who you think he is. Your body is not what you thought it was. Your identity is formed by a secret history. I'm Danny Shapiro, and these are just a few of the stunning stories I'll be exploring on the 14th season of Family Secrets. He kind of shoved me out of the way and said, move. And he went out the front door, and he jumped in a car and drove off, and that was the last time I saw him. Listen to Season 14 of Family Secrets on the IHeart Radio,
Starting point is 00:01:30 app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Every family has its secrets. But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life? That is not the look of an innocent man. Is everyone lying to me about who they are? I felt such desperation. I felt it was what I had to do. Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man.
Starting point is 00:01:57 on the IHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Here's something that should not be as complicated as it is, getting a racist statue removed. And here's something that should be a whole lot easier than it is, getting a new one put up in its place. I'm Akela Hughes, and Rebel Spirit, season two, is about both of those things. As I was watching these statues come down, I was thinking about what it meant that I grew up in a majority black city, in which there were more homages to enslavers than there were to enslave people. Listen to Rebel Spirit Season 2 on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The volume.
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Starting point is 00:04:08 And tonight he had an interception for the first time and forever. Nobody could have succeeded with this team and this season. I mean, they're using a basically their third different person is sort of assembling the game plan this year. It's just a circus. It is an absolute circus. he's still the youngest quarterback in the NFC. He's got boundless talent. He made a couple of really nice throws tonight.
Starting point is 00:04:36 I mean, Gino Smith is, I mean, just a Hammondegger. Caleb's got all sorts of talent. But there's just nothing you can do with this franchise. There's nothing I like about it. Like even bad franchises, let's take a franchise, you know, like the Jets. They had Robert Sala for years, an excellent defensive coach. Joe Douglas whiffed on a quarterback in a COVID year, but that roster is a bunch of Joe Douglas draft picks. It's very good.
Starting point is 00:05:06 He also went and got Devante Adams before he got fired, and Devante and Aaron are connecting. Take a franchise like the Carolina Panthers. They went out and got an excellent young offensive coach who looks like he has turned Bryce Young from a bust to a decent, mobile, athletic, accurate starter. there's nothing about the bears outside of Caleb Williams. I mean, it's, I don't trust the ownership. You know, Kevin Warren, the president has a reputation as more politician than football expert. Ryan Poles, you know, I mean, listen, keep him fine, move off him fine. I don't think he's done a terrible job.
Starting point is 00:05:45 Last year, four picks, he took a punter. That's not what I would have done. They could have, you know, made more moves. Iber Fluse, the staff, it's a mess. I mean, there's just nothing that's redeemable about the franchise outside of Caleb Williams and a couple of players, Montez Sweat, Jalen Johnson, DJ Moore. You know, they've got a couple of players I like, but everybody in the NFL's got a couple of players. It's just nobody could have succeeded here. You know, tonight it was an unwashable mess and all the fears that Caleb Williams had privately
Starting point is 00:06:21 going to Chicago. I mean, I reported this last year. I got pushback on it, but people in his camp were worried. This franchise, I mean, look at Chicago sports right now. White Sox, Blackhawks, bulls, bears. I don't have any ability to decipher why. Not great ownership is a place to start. But I feel sad for the kid because, and you can see the talent. I mean, you would have to trying to make an argument to say you can't see his talent. I mean, last night or tonight was the first interception he's had in forever. I think it was like since Halloween. And that's why this idea that you can just go out and get some, you know, Ben Johnson and he's going to change the world, you know, that guy's never been a head coach at the high school level. There are so many
Starting point is 00:07:16 hurdles to overcome in this organization. I don't think. think there's a good job right now in the NFL. I really don't. I don't think any of these jobs are good. And if I was Mike Frable, I'd sit it out for a year because I think next year you could possibly have the Cowboys. Bingles and Joe Burrow would be available. You know, there's a couple of opportunities out there next year. Keep your eye on. If Sean McDermott does not win in Buffalo, I think Sean McDermott, a good coach could be in trouble. So those are really good opportunities. And there's only been three great coaching opportunities in the last eight years. Green Bay, Matt LaFleur, I think Mike McCarthy in Dallas, and getting Justin Herbert with a Chargers, those are really high-end
Starting point is 00:07:59 coaching opportunities. I wouldn't want this Chicago job, despite Caleb's talent. I wouldn't want it. That's how bad it is. My other takeaway in this game, it's funny, the number one position in the NFL over the last 20 years that has been the biggest bust rate in the first round is wide receiver. And obviously, you know, wide receivers can make dynamic plays. But the Seahawks have Smith and Jigma first rounder, D.K. Metcalfe, second rounder, a good tight end in Noah Fant, excellent running back, Charbonnet, who's their second back, but very quality. Gino Smith can't play. You're 8, 9, 9, and 8 with Gino Smith. That's just what it is. You know, Romo Dense, what can you do? They've been better off going out and getting an available offensive
Starting point is 00:08:46 tackle. Instead, they went in later rounds and got some prospect, I think, from Yale, and you know, can he play? We'll see. You know, you look at the chargers who are going to make the playoffs. They could have had a wide receiver. They looked at Brian Thomas. They went and got Joe Alt from Notre Dame. They're going to make the playoffs. They have two of the best young tackles, offensive tackles in the NFL. Yeah, I was just watching it tonight. And I'm looking at all these first round wide receiver talents and DJ Moore and Roma Dunzee and D.K. Metcalfe second rounder and Smith and Jigbin, what's it matter? If you have a bad organization or like in Seattle, you have a mediocre quarterback. And I like John Snyder as general manager for the Seahawks.
Starting point is 00:09:29 He's mostly not a good job. But I think he made a major mistake last year and the year before not drafting a quarterback. And I said it at the time, I'm not looking through the rearview mirror here. I said it last year. Seattle's roster is really. solid, D-line solid, skill positions, good corners, linebackers that are mobile and move. They're just mediocre quarterback. So it was a tough watch tonight. And, you know, I just, Chicago fans, Al Michaels touched on this. I mean, they are being handed just tire fires and all their sports. And to come out tonight and pack that stadium is, you know, it's a tip of the cap to one of a great American cities and sports cities, because fans in that city are getting ripped off.
Starting point is 00:10:17 The quality is awful. It's always been a very political city, and it feels like, the same with the Bears. It just feels like a kind of a political hot mess. So, again, I think my first choice would be Vrable. I don't know if he'd accept it. I have real reservations about all these hot shot offensive coordinators. A year ago, Bobby Sloick, Houston OC, was a genius. Houston can't score. this year. C.J. Stroud has regressed badly. You know, Cliff Kingsbury, who I like a lot, but he struggled as a head coach, college and pro. You got to be careful. I mean, there was a time when everybody was bragging about Shane Waldron and rehabbing Gino Smith. Shane Waldron, you know, I don't even know where he's at now. He got booted out of the Bears organization. So I think
Starting point is 00:11:07 when a franchise is broken, you've got to get a culture. culture changer. Dan Campbell, Detroit, Harbaugh, Mike Frable, that's what it feels like to me. It's a mess. You know, I thought it was interesting this week before we get to Chad Millman with our Sharpen Square segment. I think one of the things that is a pretty good sign that you're going to solve a problem is when you admit you have a problem. I think anytime a sport or a business gets defensive about an issue, it just signals you're not going to solve the problem. issue, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Joe Missoula, and Adam Silver have all acknowledged in the last 10 days that the NBA aesthetically has a problem. Now, they got very nice ratings.
Starting point is 00:11:55 You know, LeBron and Steph just get ratings, period. Doesn't matter if they play together in the Olympics, the finals, or on Christmas. LeBron and Steph get numbers. They still carry the league from a TV rating standpoint. But I think I like the idea that all the top stars, your Katie, Ron, to Celtics coach and Adam Silver acknowledge, yeah, we got 93s a game. It's just, it's homogenous, it's monotonous, it's cookie cutter. And, you know, a lot of people are trying to take this issue and anybody that's critical of the league, well, you know, you're an old head, you're romanticizing the past. I have said 10 times on the air minimum. The Pacers, Knicks, free throw shooting contest, Reggie Miller against Spike Lee is the most overrated finals of my life. It was,
Starting point is 00:12:42 one of the teams, they were scoring in the 70s. It was awful. I mean, like seven, eight of the 10 starters couldn't shoot. You know, it was all these romanticized tough guys that really couldn't handle the ball or shoot. It's not that. I've always been an NBA fan. And playoff basketball is always better because the mid-range game comes back. But it's very much, I would liken it to baseball and that Rob Manfred has never, has raised the ire of purists. But he listened. And he went to the minor leagues and they tried this pitch clock and it worked, did it for a couple of years, they brought it to the bigs. There's no question I watched more baseball. No question I watched more baseball last year. And they got rid of the defensive shift because he wanted more stars on the
Starting point is 00:13:25 bases, not in the dugout after lining out to right field where the second basement was standing. So these criticisms, the fact that the biggest stars in the NBA and the commissioner are acknowledging, yeah, there's just too many guys that shouldn't be shooting three, shooting threes. I think that's good for the game. I think these discussions when you make them actionable are great for the NBA. Because listen, it's some of the world's greatest athletes. Playoff basketball can be a lot of fun. The league sometimes has dipped its toe in politics and that's turned off a lot of people in the country and I get it. I'd love to see Jimmy Butler go to a team and add some juice to a team like the Warriors. But I've always loved pro basketball. And I've always loved basketball in general.
Starting point is 00:14:05 But I thought this week was a really healthy, not divisive, really healthy. discussions about the future of the game. Baseball made changes completely paid off within a year and really paid off within two years. So people can argue on the internet. It's almost like the NIL and the transfer portal. I'm for both, but you need guidelines. Miami's basketball coach just retired said, you know, the NIL has no guardrails. I'm out. Of course, people jump on Jim Laronega and say Miami Hurricanes coach, well, well, you moved, you were at George Mason, you moved. Yes, coaches have always moved. And they'll continue to move and players will continue to move. But when like eight guys of your 13 on
Starting point is 00:14:52 scholarship bail and you have a good program, you're spending so much time recruiting your own players, forget other high schoolers and AAU stars, that it makes the game daunting. It's just a, you need relentless, youthful energy to keep up. I mean, Jay Wright should be coaching now. It just wears you out. And so if you want to retain your best coaches and have more continuity, I don't think the NIL or Transfer Portal are ruining the sport. I've had more fun watching college football this year than previous years.
Starting point is 00:15:26 But it's okay to have these live discussions and don't get defensive about it. Transfer Portal, one thing I like about it, Quarterbacks run the sport, and if you need one, Oregon's just going to go get a new one every year. Keeps Oregon. You don't have these big long rebuilding years for these top programs. So I'm for all of this stuff. I just like the NBA discussion. And I liked baseball's discussions, which they turn actionable, right? And I like the NIL discussion. You can take any side you want, but anything in life that improves over discussion, I'm here for. Well, it's the most wonderful time of the year for getting in all the basketball, football, hockey action at Draft King Sportsbook.
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Starting point is 00:17:26 We created our own podcast. called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts throughout there. But this one's extra special.
Starting point is 00:17:41 So how did we actually come up with a name Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band. Before Jonas Brothers was... This is how you guys remember it going to be. down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, people could call in and say, Hey Jonas, and then I wrote down on my little notepad,
Starting point is 00:18:09 Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and Friends. Me and hilarious. guest from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?
Starting point is 00:18:42 We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and you. Nobody's telling you exactly what happened.
Starting point is 00:19:01 That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode, we're cutting through the noise. Breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines. We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves. Their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down,
Starting point is 00:19:26 give you context and ask the questions everybody wants answers. Sports Slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live them. Listen to Sports Slice on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slical Life 12 and the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Jacob Kingston grew up in an isolated polygamous sect. We were God's chosen kingdom on earth. He felt destined for greatness. So when a swaggering Armenian businessman catapults Jacob into an extraordinary world,
Starting point is 00:19:59 He doesn't look back. Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, meeting the president of Turkey. I'm Michelle McPhee, and this is one of the most shocking criminal conspiracies I've ever come across. When Jacob met Levant this plant to a billion dollar fraud. But with two kings from entirely different worlds,
Starting point is 00:20:19 just how long can their empire survive? The largest tax investigation in American history. You need to tell me what you know. Is somebody, coming after me. Jacob told Levan, you're ruining my life. Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.
Starting point is 00:20:43 The story I've told myself about love or relationships can then shape my behavior, and that can lead me to sabotage the possibility of connection. This Mental Health Awareness Month, tune into the podcast deeply well with Debbie Brown and explore the journey of healing, self-discovery, and returning to yourself. We explore higher consciousness, emotional well-being, and the practices that help you find clarity, peace, and self-mastery in a world that can feel overwhelming. The world is becoming lonelier.
Starting point is 00:21:17 We're not becoming more social and connected. We're becoming more individualized, but we actually meet people in connection. If you've been searching for a soft place to land while doing the work to become whole. This podcast is for you to hear more. Listen to deeply well with Debbie Brown from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. All right, here we go. Another edition of Sharper Square, Chad Millman Cows to the favorites. I will have a couple of college games in here as well because I think some of the lines are working our favor. By the way, I enjoy the college football playoffs.
Starting point is 00:22:05 You know, first rounds of the NCAA tournament, first rounds of the tournament aren't going to be great. I suspect going forward the second round will be receded. That would be my guess. It will expand to 14 or 16 teams. I think there's been a bit of an overreaction to the tournament. What say you? Yeah, totally. I feel like two things out of this.
Starting point is 00:22:33 One, the first point you just made, every year in March Madness, the first round has, you know, 16, 14 blowouts and two great games. And then like, but everyone remembers the great games. The argument will expand the field. And then all of a sudden you're going to expand the field and there's going to be a MAC team that ends up upsetting a Big 10 team, a 12-5 scenario. You're going to have that in college football one day. I don't worry about it.
Starting point is 00:23:03 Also, two, you could have predicted before Tennessee played Ohio State, after Notre Dame had beat up on Indiana, and after SMU was getting it handed to them by Penn State, I was in a text chain with a bunch of IU buddies, right? And I was saying, you can guarantee right now next year over correction for SEC and strength of schedule. You get seven SEC teams. You'll get two Big Ten teams chosen from Penn State, Michigan, Ohio State. You'll get Clemson out of the ACC. You'll get Who Cares out of the Big 12?
Starting point is 00:23:48 And you'll get Boise State, right? Because you won't get the at-large team. You won't get the third Big Ten team. Because now the committee is too scared because of all these blowouts. So now you're going to get just the SEC. and when those teams are blown out in the first round, then you expand and you're like, oh, we're just going to let everybody in and hopefully we get some upset sometime down the road. That's my take.
Starting point is 00:24:10 All right. So we'll have some college football picks. We'll start with the NFL. Broncos plus three and a half. Head coach Sean Payton with extra time. They played on Thursday. Cincinnati's defense is atrocious. I think people are overreacting to just how good Joe Burrow is.
Starting point is 00:24:26 They can't stop people. Offensive coach, extra time. Listen, they outplayed the chargers for the. the first half. And, you know, then Justin Herbert just did what great quarterbacks do. He took the game over. This one jumped out to me as an overreaction. Broncos plus three and a half, sharper square. So it's totally sharp. You nailed it about Joe Burrow. The Browns were in the Bengals backfield the entire game. Joe Burrow had no choice but to look brilliant and make brilliant plays like he's Superman because he was going to get sacked. He's pirouetting into full-on
Starting point is 00:25:05 dives and throwing touchdown passes because his offensive line is so bad that he had no choice but to look like someone who everybody wants to bet on. Joe Burrow kind of holds the ball. That's kind of his MO. He wants to throw the ball down field. He wants to get it to Higgins. He wants to get it to Jamar Chase. I would want to do that too. So it's not entirely his fault. he's playing into what he thinks will get them the best opportunity to win. But the Broncos have as good a pass rush as Cleveland, and they don't have Dorian Thompson, Robinson, who, by the way, almost got the Browns to cover that game.
Starting point is 00:25:40 That's how bad the Bengals defense is. So let me give you some stats about Bo Nix that should make you feel more comfortable about this, because I bet it at three and a half. Bo Nix against bad defenses. So defense is below the 50% threshold across a variety of metrics in the NFL, of which the Bengals are won. Seven or no straight up and against the spread,
Starting point is 00:26:01 29 points per game, 13 touchdowns, two interceptions. The Broncos are ranked as a better team than the Bengals across the board in all DVOA metrics. Like it's overinflation on the Broncos losing in prime time and the Bengals, Joe Burrow, looking like a superhero, literally. Another game that jumped out to me, I don't like to bet, I don't like to bet bad teams,
Starting point is 00:26:26 but the Saints, probably the worst humiliation in the league this year. A standalone Monday Night Football game didn't score, and it almost looked like they quit. Now they're at home getting a point against the horrible Raiders team, Sharper Square. I don't even know what to say. Colin, in all the years we've been doing this, I will come on this show, whether it was at ESPN or here, and try to get you to bet the ugliest team. in the worst game and you're like, no, not betting a game I don't want to watch, not betting a bad quarterback. I was going through my notes before we came on the show and I was thinking,
Starting point is 00:27:07 all right, what game am I going to get him to bet that he's like, I haven't asked about it? It was the Saints. I'm going to have to work on the fly and think of a new game. Of course, we're betting the Saints here. Like, they're getting, they just got blown out in prime time. Humiliated. Historically, you bet that team blindfolded. It doesn't matter that they're playing JV players. It doesn't matter who their quarterback is. They're at home. They're as a dog. They just got blown out. Every sort of trend says you play that team. On the other side, the Raiders, look, they beat up on the Jags, but let's not be fooled. They had a 10-game losing streak, and the Jags kept turning the ball over. So I wouldn't be too anxious to bet on
Starting point is 00:27:51 the Raiders as road favorites in this spot. Give me the Saints. Now I got to scramble and think of what my other game I'm going to try to get you to bet is. Well, I like the Falcons plus floor at the commanders, and the reason I like it is, I mean, Jaden Daniels was a hero at the end, but he just tried to give that thing away early. I think Michael Pennix is really good. I think they have a good offensive line. We'll hold the commanders pass rush off. Four points is a lot. I do not.
Starting point is 00:28:20 I think the Falcons are going to be competitive. Listen, they're playing for a division title. All right. This is a big game for them. So this is not like the commander. And the commanders aren't going to get home field advantage. The Falcons can win home field advantage with these wins down the stretch. It just seems to me again, it wasn't that they just beat the Giants.
Starting point is 00:28:39 It's not just that. But Pennix's accuracy. Greg Kosell talked about it this week. This kid has an arm. I don't care if it's windy. I like the Falcons plus four sharper square. Totally sharp. Why has guys bet this down for?
Starting point is 00:28:55 four and a half to four. I'd be surprised if it isn't at three and a half or lower by the game. A lot of the reasons you just indicated. Michael Pennix had a lot of fans into the draft. A lot of professional bettors. Don't forget, the draft has become a huge betting event. Professional bettors are digging into game film from college the same way they're digging into game film on a week-to-week basis now because there's a money-making opportunity. There's a market, right? Michael Penix is one of those guys. Not dissimilar from Jaden Daniels. Not dissimilar from Bo Nix.
Starting point is 00:29:29 Not that dissimilar from Caleb Williams. A ton of film on the guy. He played a lot of college football. And some of the reasons why these guys who are coming in and having success is because they played so many games, we saw how accurate he could be. I love watching Pennock's throw. Like, I think his ball was so pretty. And also, I don't think in a primetime game,
Starting point is 00:29:52 he is someone who would be cowed by the lights the way other rookies might. He's played in massive games. Talk about college football national championship. That's a big game. I don't care if it's in college. Like that has huge stakes. So he's been in spots. He's older.
Starting point is 00:30:10 I like it too. A couple of favorites that jump out to me. The bill slept walked, sleepwalk through their win over New England. So you get those when you're a dominant team. The Jets outplayed the Rams, had a horrible fourth quarter. Now you've got Aaron Rogers is not sure he's coming back. There's more noise than ever. Aaron's had a good last six to eight weeks.
Starting point is 00:30:41 But I think Buffalo is a significantly better team. Jets are a little dinged up. Garrett Wilson is unhappy with his targets. I think Buffalo flexes here. I think Buffalo also watch the Ravens and the Chiefs flex and play brilliantly as favorites. There's a separation. You know, I don't like big favorites. I'm going to take Buffalo minus eight and a half off a horrible winning performance sharper square.
Starting point is 00:31:08 So it's a little square. The numbers moved. You know, it's moved in the Jets direction. I can't fault you if you want to do this. Everything you just said are all the reasons why. I was on the bills last week. I thought they'd want to flex. I thought they'd want to respond to Lamar Jackson,
Starting point is 00:31:27 throwing five touchdowns against the Giants and put Josh Allen back in the leadership position and get a stranglehold on that MVP. It didn't happen, right? Drake May was running. He was throwing accurately. Obviously different scenario. I lean into the bills again, to be honest.
Starting point is 00:31:45 I feel like everything you just said about the Jets is true. which is why I would want to back the bills. Aaron Rogers had been healthy for the past three weeks. He's now got a minor MCL issue on his knee. This team is a train wreck. I was all over the Jets last week. Wise guys were in the Jets last week. You cannot count in the Jets
Starting point is 00:32:08 because the decision making of Jeff Elbrick is so bad. He does not seem to understand the basic constructs of when to go forward and forth down, situational play, clock management. If the Jets kick a field goal on fourth and four from the Rams 12-yard line last week, they're up 12-6, and that's the ball game. Like, the Rams were not doing anything. Instead, he twice went forward on fourth downs,
Starting point is 00:32:36 and that's basically when the Rams won the game. So it's hard to bet on the Jets because Jeff Albrecht is just so bad at this. One more NFL game. This lines move back and forth. Panthers getting seven and a half division game at the Bucks. Tampa's the better team. But I'll make the argument in the last month. Bryce Young is playing like a number one pick and C.J. Strouds playing like a number two pick.
Starting point is 00:33:04 The Panthers can move the ball. They've got a good coach. They can move the ball. Tampa's dinged up. I think they'll win. But division game, a hot quarterback, it kind of feels like an easy one. or square? Totally sharp.
Starting point is 00:33:21 I haven't understood this line all week. The wise guys haven't either. It was at eight and a half. It went down to eight. Now it's at seven and a half because money has been coming under the Panthers.
Starting point is 00:33:31 I think you're good until seven. You know, at seven, you just sort of leave it alone. You want to get the hook off of that key number. A lot of games end on seven. That's when we talk about key numbers. Three, seven, those are the biggest ones.
Starting point is 00:33:46 What's interesting about this game is a month ago, they played it in Carolina. Tampa was a six and a half point favorite on the road, won in overtime because Chuba Hubbard fumbled the ball in field goal range for the bucks, right? So now you take this game to Tampa. Tampa's only a point and a half better when the line came out, went from six and a half to eight, right?
Starting point is 00:34:10 Normally, home field is three points. What that's telling you is two things. One, bookmakers have generally regraded the Panthers. They started off one in seven against the spread. Bryce Young was terrible. Professional betters have been betting, betting, betting the Panthers. I'm sure listeners remember early in the year I was all over the Panthers. Bryce Young 2.0 is everything you just said.
Starting point is 00:34:31 He's rolling out of the pocket, using his legs, incredibly accurate, standing in the pocket, taking really hard hits. He's been great. He's been a really good quarterback, much better than C.J. Stroud, like you said. So bookmakers have adjusted to that. to me, eight was still a little too high. Wise guys agree. You're sharp.
Starting point is 00:34:51 Take the Panthers. A college football line that jumps out to me, I don't believe you can win a national championship with a bad defense. That's why I think Texas and Ohio State probably play for the Natty. And I do think Georgia and Notre Dame are at least in play to play for the national championship. Oregon's defense is bad. Boise State ran on it. Ohio State did whatever they wanted on it.
Starting point is 00:35:15 Penn State did whatever they wanted against the ducks. I'm trying to forget the Tennessee game because it was in Columbus. But Ohio State has played in the Rose Bowl before. Weather's not a factor. I said before the season, Oregon's going to beat Ohio State at Otson. Ohio State will beat them in the rematch. It's under a field goal. I'd take the Buckeye Sharper Square.
Starting point is 00:35:42 Yeah, look, that's the sharp side right now, right? and that's where the money is. And when you see money and sort of any platform you're looking at, you can usually get betting percentages and money percentages. Money right now is on Ohio State. And look, you wouldn't expect Ohio State, which lost to Michigan, lost to Oregon, has had a lot of drama, questions about Ryan Day. The fact they beat up Tennessee the way they did,
Starting point is 00:36:08 Oregon has been out of the spotlight for a little bit. There's a lot of sentiment about the Buckeyes defense, like you just said. So that's the way the money has been going in this game. Look, it's fascinating. It's rare. You're going to get the second ranked, third ranked, whatever it is team to be the favorite over the number one ranked team. But that's the spot we're in because of everything you just said. Hey, it's us, the Jonas Brothers.
Starting point is 00:36:35 And guess what? We have some big news. What's the news, new? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it.
Starting point is 00:36:46 First people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts. We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. Well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers.
Starting point is 00:37:09 This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes. I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast. We could call in and say, hey Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys.
Starting point is 00:37:26 Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.
Starting point is 00:37:45 This week, my guest, and L's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,
Starting point is 00:38:02 or wherever you get your podcasts. Last night, a blown call changed a game. This morning, the internet lost its mind. Highlights are trending, opinions are flying, and nobody's telling you exactly what happened. That's where Sports Slice comes in. I'm Timbo. Every episode we're cutting through the noise, breaking down the plays, the controversies, and the stories behind the headlines.
Starting point is 00:38:21 We go straight to the source, the athlete themselves, their locker room stories, their reactions, the stuff nobody gets to hear. The laughs, the drama, the triumphs, the moments that never make the highlight real. From viral moments to historic games, from buzzer beaters to controversial calls, we break it down, give you context, and ask the questions everybody wants answered. Sports slice brings you closer to the action with stories told by the people who live there. Listen to Sports Slice on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more, follow Timbo Slices Life 12 in the TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Jacob Kingston grew up in an isolated polygamous sect. We were God's chosen kingdom on earth.
Starting point is 00:39:01 He felt destined for greatness. So when a swaggering Armenian businessman catapults Jacob into an extraordinary world, he doesn't look back. Ferraris and Lamborghinis, private jets, meeting the press. President of Turkey. I'm Michelle McPhee, and this is one of the most shocking criminal conspiracies I've ever come across. When Jacob met Levin, this went to a billion dollar fraud. But with two kings from entirely different worlds, just how long can their empire survive? The largest tax investigation in American history.
Starting point is 00:39:37 You need to tell me what you know. Is somebody coming after me? Jacob told Levan, you're ruining my life. Listen to Kingdom of Fraud on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Jared Adano. You might know me as that loud guy who yells out, help on the internet. Help! Somebody!
Starting point is 00:40:02 Please! But there's so much more to me than me. I'm an actor. I'm a comedian. And recently, I've become quite the helper myself. And on my new podcast, Hope from a Hypocrite, I'll be changing lives. Helping people in need with my sage advice. and thoughtful solutions.
Starting point is 00:40:19 Sike, I'm a comedian! I'm not qualified to give good advice. Join me and my comedian friends as we riff, rant, recommend some of the most legally dubious advice known to man. If I'm calling you, even if you're on your phone, let it ring twice. One ring is too scary.
Starting point is 00:40:36 Oh, cream a chicken suit. Hey, cream A cream a chicken suit. This is Help from a Hypocrite, the worst advice from the dumbest people you know. Listen to help from a hypocrite as part of the Mike Coultera Podcast Network available on the I-Hart Radio app,
Starting point is 00:40:51 Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, there's a game I want you to kind of explain to me. So the Cardinals are missing both their offensive tackles. They have nothing to play for. The Rams are on a heater. The line starts at like six. It's now six and a half.
Starting point is 00:41:19 Arizona doesn't travel well, so from time to time their Rams can feel like a road team at home. This won't be one. one of these times. I get the better quarterback, the better coach. The Rams now are completely healthy. I feel like they're better than the line. That Jets game was built for them to lose. Early game, cold weather, good defense, and they played a brilliant fourth quarter. I feel like at six to six and a half, I have to bet the Rams. I know it's divisional. Sharper square if I like the Rams. Well, it's totally sharp if you like the Rams, but this is
Starting point is 00:41:54 sort of the nuance of the betting business is getting the best of the number. This game on Sunday night opened Rams at minus four. So I'll do the favorites with professional bet or Simon Hunter on Sunday night on the volume podcast network. We'll do it. Go on air at 7.30. We do it live. We're off air before the Sunday night game. The timing is relevant here because we will preview the games that we like the most. First glance, you know, gut instinct, not having done any research for the following week. This game stood out immediately. We started talking about the Rams minus four. Why is this number so low? The Rams just got out of a trap game against the Jets and they won. The week before, they got lucky. The Niners dropped a couple interceptions. They beat the Niners in a
Starting point is 00:42:50 on soon. Now they're going home, chance to clinch the division against a team that is down, James Connor injured. We saw him practicing, but still limping. Offensive lineman injured, not a very good defense, a coach who doesn't know how to keep his team up yet the way, say, Sean McVeigh, or even Mike McCarthy did with the Cowboys Against the Bucks. The number during that show went from four to four and a half to five to five and a half. 30 minutes, it moved a point and a half. By Monday morning, it was six. And so when you're talking about why isn't it sharp to bet the Rams now, because the Wise guy's been betting it since it was at four, four and a half, five, five and a half, and a little bit at six until it got to six and a half. It got to seven.
Starting point is 00:43:38 And Wise guy started betting the Cardinals at seven. Again, the Rams are the right side. But if you want to win as a better long term, then you have to have enough discipline to choose the best of the number and then walk away if you don't feel like you're getting it, you could still bet the Rams at six and a half. You'll probably end up winning, but it's not going to be a sharp side at six and a half. All right. I got to tell you, I've had a lousy year betting, but so far I've got seven of eight division winners. I pick a surprise playoff team every year. It was the Washington commanders. I pick a team that will double the Vegas win total. It was the Denver Broncos. I said this on the air today on TV on FS1. There's the old saying with kids,
Starting point is 00:44:24 the days are long, but the years fly by. And I feel like with the NFL, week to week, it's crazy, but over the course of a season, it's very predictable. So I've had a terrible year betting, because I tend to take underdogs and value. You know, I'm always seeking value over favorites, but a lot of favorites of one. I'm trying to think, I missed badly on the Jackson Bill Jaguars badly. But I'm proudest on my commander's pick. If I said to you, give me your whiff and the one you'll plant the flag and as you're really proud of this year.
Starting point is 00:45:03 Oh, it's interesting. The with started as the Panthers, just because I loved him. I just thought this team, this coach, this quarterback, this offensive line more than anything, I just thought they were going to be much, much better. It ended up being a whiff because they started off so badly and I lost so much on them early in the year. I'll take a little bit of credit that they got better. And so I'm glad about that. To me, the one I'm most proud of is the Chargers.
Starting point is 00:45:36 I love Jim Harbaugh. And we didn't even talk about that game. I think he's a football savant. And I think that what he did against the Broncos is the exact reason why he's, his teams turn around so quickly no matter the talent level. He knows the rules. He knows strategy. He knows clock management so well. What he did at the end of that first half against Sean Peyton, who's a brilliant coach, was a master class, right? He takes the time out so they have to punt. The punt leads to the roughing the returner, the personal foul. That leads to the free kick. That leads to the
Starting point is 00:46:18 Chargers having momentum and they win that game going away, that's good decision-making. And you don't see, that's what you don't see from Jeff Albrecht. It's what you're not seeing from Jared Mayo. Like, you see the difference there. So to me, I'm most proud of the Chargers because I thought they'd be good this year. And I played it that way. By the way. I also tell you, the bet that I always love the most, which I'm still in play for, I always do sort of a round-robin on the teams that are at 12 to 12.
Starting point is 00:46:48 one or shorter to win the Super Bowl. And I will bet them in Super Bowl matchups, because you can usually get those at like between 20 and 35 to 1. So you bet the Chiefs in the Lions. You bet the Chiefs and the Eagles. You bet the Ravens and the Eagles. And you bet the Bills and et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. I'm still alive with that. Even with the Bengals, I'm alive with that if they made the playoffs. So I always like that bet and feel good now that the Chiefs and the Ravens, at least, are two of the teams that I most heavily favored at the beginning of the year, along with the Eagles and the Lions. And I feel good that those matchups are still in play. Chargers minus four at New England, as long as we're talking about Harbaugh, I tend to like teams favored. J.K. Dobbins
Starting point is 00:47:41 should play Gus Edwards out. Which side do you lean? Oh, I totally lean Chargers. And this This is walking into a hornets nest. Like in any other year, you mentioned the favorites, right? In any other year, we're playing the Patriots here. We're playing a team that's out of it, at home, more than a field goal underdog, a team traveling that's fighting to make the playoffs. Every trend will tell you against the spread, in this scenario, the underdog is the right play. But for what we just talked about, I think Harbaugh is a brilliant coach. I think that teams are
Starting point is 00:48:23 making more aggressive decisions, so they're scoring more points. I think that the fact that the most teams are starting field position at the 30-yard line is getting them closer to scoring and the other side of the field and making them more comfortable on fourth and four from the 40 going forward instead of kicking a field goal. And so I think that's one of the reasons why we're seeing underdogs lose so much this year and favorites win is there's more opportunity for them to score at a higher rate in bigger chunks. And it's impacting betting. Like, bettors are not having a great year, you know? Favorites have gone 71% straight up this year, just winning straight up. That's the most profitable season since 2013. Teams getting over 60% at the spread. So we talk about fading the public,
Starting point is 00:49:15 We want to be contrarian because the public doesn't know anything. Teams getting over 60% of the spread covering 56% this year against the spread. Home underdogs, 43% against the spread this year. That'll be the third least profitable season since 1990. So for people like you, people like me, I want to fade the public. I want to bed home underdogs. That's usually where the value is. It's been a rough go of it, man.
Starting point is 00:49:47 Chad Millman, co-hosts of the favorites. Good luck, buddy. Good luck to all of us. The Volume. Hey, guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin.
Starting point is 00:50:01 And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey, Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it. We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions.
Starting point is 00:50:16 Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
Starting point is 00:50:46 Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Your husband is not who you think he is. Your body is not what you thought it was.
Starting point is 00:51:03 Your identity is formed by a secret history. I'm Danny Shapiro. And these are just a few of the stunning stories I'll be exploring on the 14th season of Family Secrets. He kind of shoved me out of the way and said, move. And he went out the front door and he jumped in a car and drove off, and that was the last time I saw him.
Starting point is 00:51:21 Listen to Season 14 of Family Secrets on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Here's something that should not be as complicated as it is, getting a racist statue removed. And here's something that should be a whole lot easier than it is, getting a new one put up in its place. I'm Akila Hughes, and Rebel Spirit, season two, is about both of those things. As I was watching these statues come down, I was thinking about what it meant that I grew up in a majority black city, in which there were more homages to enslavers than there were to enslave people. Listen to Rebel Spirit Season 2 on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Every family has its secrets.
Starting point is 00:52:01 But what happens when you discover that your dad has been living a double life? That is not the look of an innocent man. Is everyone lying to me about who they are? I felt such desperation. I felt it was what I had to do. Listen to Deep Cover the Family Man on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.

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