The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Bills Over Rams Reaction, 'Sharp or Square' Week 1 NFL Picks

Episode Date: September 9, 2022

Colin reacts to the Bills throttling the Rams in the 2022 NFL opener (3:00), then (10:00) "Fake Questions, Real Answers" on if Jets QB Zach Wilson is already a bust, what Baker Mayfield’s trash talking t-shirts say about him, if Dabo Swinney’s new deal leaves him underpaid, and if the Cowboys are massively overrated. Then the Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 1 picks are "sharp" or "square". They look at Packers/Vikings (22:00), Eagles/Lions (24:00), Colts/Texans (25:00), Niners/Bears (29:00), Jags/Commanders (31:00), Browns/Panthers (33:00), Chiefs/Cardinals (35:00), and which NFL starting QB Colin will never, ever bet on (ever) (38:00). Make sure to Subscribe and follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! #herdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

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Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show.

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From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84's big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians,

and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The Volume. It's the Colin Coward podcast presented by Fandul. Football seasons here. No better place to get in on the action. FanDul app is safe. You get paid fast. A lot of ways to play. The spread, the money line, team to players, props, a lot of stuff. Over-Unders. Jump into the action. Same game parles are my favorite.

Just use the promo code Colin and download the Fandual app today. All right, let's have some thoughts on the Rams' unspectacular performance as Buffalo dominates the Rams' offensive line. And overall dominates Matt Stafford, McVeigh, and the Rams offense. First time Sean McVeigh's lost an opener. We'll get to fake questions, real answers, and Sharp versus Square with Chad Millman after my rant. So two big thoughts. Mahomes may be the best quarterback in the NFL, or some would say Aaron Rogers, the back-to-back MVP. Josh Allen's the most talented quarterback in the NFL, much bigger than Rogers and Mahomes, runs much better than Rogers and Mahomes, much stronger than Rogers and Mahomes. because of his size hasn't been hurt like Rogers and Mahomes.

He's a little wild at times. He takes big swings, but it's one of the things I really like about the young quarterbacks, Herbert and Burrow, Josh Allen. You know, sometimes I feel like the Kirk Cousins, Derek Carr, Rogers, really good, but they kind of play safe.

Josh Allen, Mahomes, Burrow, they just let it rip. And that's why I find Josh Allen the most entertaining player in the league to watch. He's a little bit Cam Newton, but a much better thrower. He's a little bit Big Ben, but I think a better runner. I don't think we've ever seen anything like him. It reminds me of Janus when he broke into the NBA. Janus was not as polished as LeBron.

He wasn't as great offensively as Kevin Durant. couldn't shoot like Steph Curry. But about four years ago, when you would watch Janus, like watching Josh Allen, you would go, well, he's the most talented guy in the league. He can dominate at the rim. He can shoot. He can handle the ball. He can dominate on the offensive end.

You can't stop him inside. And it just took a while for Janus to develop some nuances, refine, sandpaper his game. And now he's the most dominant player in the league. It's no longer Durant or LeBron or Steph Curry. It's Janice. And I feel watching Alan, he was easily the best player on a field with multiple Hall of Famers. So that's my first takeaway.

And I feel with Josh Allen, when somebody's really great, they make other great players look pretty ordinary. You put Jordan on the floor with Charles Barkley, and he made Charles one of the 15 best players I've ever seen look kind of ordinary. I mean, how average did Matt Stafford look? He looked small. He looked reluctant. he couldn't avoid sacks.

He couldn't push the ball down the field consistently. So, you know, Alan looked like he was at a completely different jet stream than Stafford. So let's pivot now to Stafford. It was a bad performance by the Rams. And when a team struggles offensively, it's usually two reasons. One of them, your offensive lines getting worked. So over the course of a season, you can correct a lot of your problems. For instance, Alan Robinson didn't.

do much. Well, Stafford missed some camp. Robinson is new. They'll be better down the line. Cam Acres, the running back, appears to be in the doghouse. He didn't play. He probably will as the season progresses. Obj will come back. Stafford will have better nights. But the problem of the offensive line, I said this all week on FS1 and Fox Sports Radio is Andrew Whitworth is going to get Hall of Fame votes. And the backup to Whitworth is case. but he's not elite. And boy, did you see that. Now, there's not a lot of Von Miller's in the NFL.

That's about as good a rush end as he'll face. He will face a bosa a couple of times with the Niners. And the bills can rotate eight to nine defensive linemen. I mean, they're the deepest defensive front in the league. So that's about as good a defensive front and as good as an edge rusher as the Rams note boom, the left tackle, replacing Andrew Whitworth will face all year. Not a lot of Sundays, Mondays, Thursdays are going to look like that. That said, a lot of the Rams issues, timing between Stafford and Robinson, the availability of Cam Acres, those are correctable.

If you're not great at left tackle, nobody's giving you one in the middle of a season. Now, maybe you get to the trading deadline and a team with a good left tackle says, we'll give them to you, give us some draft picks. and maybe the Rams say, listen, we just, we got to get better at left tackle. But that is a position. There's a reason that the Niners went out and paid a fortune for a left tackle. Miami Dolphins went to the Saints and paid a fortune for a left tackle. When you have a quarterback like a Garoppolo, not overly mobile, or a Stafford, you know, a Tua. Boy, that left tackle is important.

And you could really see all night long. Their center's fine. Their right tackle's fine. Rams aren't very good right now. tackle. They're capable. And again, Buffalo is so loaded on the defensive front. It was a turn style. I mean, Vaughn Miller really had his way. And so that's part of the problems. And I'm not sure how correctable it is. Do you wait to the trading deadline? Do you cross your fingers? You don't face Buffalo again. Listen, I had the bills beating the Rams in the Super Bowl. So, you know,

these are really elite teams. But I thought all the problems, started with the Rams old line. Gave up what, six, seven sacks, Stafford at the end, had his third interception. It all starts there. Now, we heard about Stafford's elbow offseason.

It was sore. It was also sore last year. Did the Rams downplay the incident? Stafford just did not throw the ball down the field. Now, there's no OBJ. Alan Robinson's not really a deep threat. Cooper Cup is occasionally. But as good as less,

Sneed is as a GM. A couple years ago, second round, his first pick was 2-2-at-well, the wide receiver, Ole Miss. He's been a bust. And Lesneed does not have a lot of busts. But he's small. I've been told he's kind of immature.

He's not ready to play. He's not dependable. Stafford doesn't really trust him. They really need an over-the-top component. That's why they reached for him in the second round. tiny guy weighed 174 out of college. It's why they reached for them.

They felt Cooper Cup could give them the intermediates. You know, Van Jefferson could give them intermediates. Robert Woods, similar. They didn't have an over-the-top vertical threat. Atwell looks like a bust. So that's why you probably, you probably stick around with OBJ. Like when I watched the night, my takeaway was, all right, I'm not moving OBJ. That's $7.5 million in cap space.

I'm giving it to OBJ. Now, he may not play till November, but, you know, the overwhelming takeaway is Josh Allen was easily the best player on the field. The Rams offensive line was easily the weakest unit on the field. Ball game. All right. Fake questions, real answers, plus Chad Millman for my sharp or square segment for the next, what, 15, 20 weeks. Fake questions, real answers, stuff I want to talk about. Don't want to wait for you to ask me.

Fake questions, real answers. Here we go. Dear Colin, does Zach Wilson's injury already confirm all your concerns about him? Yes, I said of all the first round quarterbacks, he had a chance to bust, and it wasn't all his fault. Woody Johnson, and I've known three different head coaches who have worked for him, Rex Ryan, Herm Edwards, Eric Mangini. He is not a good owner. I like Joe Douglas, the GM, but I think he missed on Bechtin, the left tackle. Robert Sala, fourth best coach arguably in his own division,

and Zach Wilson is what I thought he would be, a little small, a little cocky, and a little careless. He had one good game last year. I don't think he's talented enough, and most aren't, to overcome a bad O-line, bad ownership and the fourth best coach in a division. Doesn't mean he can't rebound. But my concerns about him, size, kind of small,

small, O-line, too much hero ball, tends to be a little reckless, have absolutely all been confirmed. Dear Colin, what do you make of the off-the-leash t-shirts printed by Baker Mayfield before he faces the Browns? Listen, we all have friends. And it took me a long time to realize this. but sometimes you have to accept friends for who they are. We all have the perpetually late friend.

We all have the moody friend. Listen, even if you like Baker Mayfield, you would admit he's impulsive. He can't help himself. We've all got friends like that. You know, you give him a hundred bucks. It burns a hole in their pocket. I think Baker's always been able to harness his emotion for great, individual revenge game performances.

That's why I think he'll beat Cleveland. But he's undisciplined. He can't help himself. So if you like him, you just got to accept him for what he is. Dear Colin, Clemson football coach, Dabo Sweeney, new contract, 10 years, $115 million. Let me guess, you think it's a fair deal. Actually, I think he's underpaid. Remember, in baseball, they have something called the war wins above.

replacement. We should have in college football car coach above replacement. Anybody that coached at Clemson, anybody, an average coach would make $7 to $7.7 million. So with this contract, he's going to make about $11 million. So what he's making is $4 million more than anybody would make, even if they were just okay at Clemson. Is Davos-Sweeney worth $4 million? a year more. Well, considering Clemson makes about $8 million a home game and he wins almost all home games, I'm going to say he's worth it. I'll say it again.

When the Clemsons, the Oklahoma's, the Texas, the USC, the Alabama's, Michigan's are winning. It's not crazy if you tie revenue to great coaching. Michigan got empty really fast pre-harbohy. Coliseum got empty real fast pre-Lincoln Riley. $15 million, $20 million a year. We all know college football as a business. Doesn't bother me at all. Dear Colin, who's the most overrated, good team in the NFL entering the season?

I don't think it's close. The Dallas Cowboys. Vegas, Fandul, all these places that make prognostication. have Dallas ninth, ninth best Super Bowl odds, tied with the Ravens. Lamar Jackson, in my opinion, is better than Dak, the owner's better, the front office is better, and the coach is way better. How do they both have top nine odds? Let me ask you this.

What is Dallas great at today? Is that great? Oh, stop it. No. Receiving Corps was great. Yes, it was a year ago when they had C.D. Lamb Amari Kou. and Cedric Wilson. It is no longer great. What about Zeke? He's looked great in camp. He's been declining for three years. The offensive line was great, now below average. They lost Randy Gregory.

So the defensive line is not as good as last year. Trayvon Diggs is a high risk, high reward corner who didn't have a great camp. Yes, Michael Parsons is great. So is their right guard, Zach Martin. They have two Hall of Fame talents. there's 22 starters on offense and defense alone. I don't think they're a top 15 team in the NFL. In fact, if you put them in the AFC West with the Broncos, the Chiefs, the Chargers, and the Raiders, if they would allow a fifth team, they would be fifth in the AFC West. Because the Raiders do some things really well, like pass the ball.

They have great weapons. Hunter Renfro. Devante Adams. Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs, they have great players, good left tackle, Colton Miller, young, healthy. The Raiders do some things exceptionally well. They have two elite pass rushers, including Max Crosby. What are the Cowboys great at? I don't think they're great at anything. Front office, owner, coach, quarterback. There's an argument, Dax their third best player. He ain't close. He is not close to a top five quarterback.

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Fandul.com. Gambling problem, 1-800 next step or text next step to 5334-2-2-Arizona, 188-8-9-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-1-7 or visit CETK, Connecticut. Connecticut, 1-800-G or visit Fand-Duel. com slash RG and Colorado, Indiana, Georgia, and Virginia. 18777-7-70-stop in Louisiana. 1-800-270-1-1-1-7-1-1-7-1-1-7-1-1-7-1-1-1-6-9 in New York, Tennessee. Redline.

1-800-889-9-7-8-9 Tennessee, visit 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, CliverTaylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined.

And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream,

this is right what you need to be. Listen to The Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. Do you remember when Diana Ross double-tap Little Kim's boobs at the VMAs? Or when Kanye said that George Bush didn't like black people.

I know what you're thinking. What the hell does George Bush got to do with Little Kim? Well, you can find out on the Look Back at it podcast. I'm Sam Jek. And I'm Alex English. We pick it here, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. Including a recent episode with Mark Lamont Hill, waxing all about crack in the 80s. To be clear, 84 is big to me, not just because of crack.

I'm down to talk about crack all day, but just so y'all know. I mean, at this point, Mark, this is the second episode where we've discussed crack. So I'm starting to see that there's a through line. We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. Yes. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really?

Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Welcome to my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way with me, your host, and your favorite therapist, Kear Games. And in recognition of Mental Health Awareness Month, I'm bringing over a decade of my own experience in the mental health field and conversations with so many incredible guests. I'm talking, Tripp Fontaine, Ryan, Ryan, Sometimes when we're in the pursuit of the thing, we get so wrapped up in the chase that we don't realize that we are in possession of the thing. And we're still chasing it.

And we don't know when we've done enough. Because people scoreboard watch. Life becomes about wins and losses. Steve Burns, Dustin Ross, because you find it important to be a good person while you hear on earth. Are you a good person because you're afraid? Because that's two different intentions, bro. Absolutely. And that's two different levels of trust.

I want you to just really be a good person. Join me, Kear Gaines, as we have real conversations about healing, growth, fatherhood, pressure, and purpose on my new podcast, Learn the Hard Way. Open your free iHeartRadio app. Search Learn the Hardway and listen now. Okay, Chad Millman is the CCO of the Action Network. All of our odds provided by Fandul, starting today for the next 20 weeks, we bring him on every Friday morning. We call it Sharper Square. I am a Square. will give him the games I'm considering for my blazing five. I usually have about seven. I'm leaning one way. And then at the end, I'll say, you give me a really sharp pick on your own and maybe I'll steal that. It's all about me. Listen, it is Colin Cowherst's volume podcast network, okay?

By the way. No mistakes. Look at this right here. That is Fancy Town. Yeah. Okay. Let's get to the ones I've liked all offseason. I've already laid a little lettuce. Vikings, it's now one and a half. I got a better line. Vikings plus one and a half at home where they have always, Kirk Cousins has always been formidable against the Packers. Say what you want about.

Captain Kirk. I think they're going to win straight out. I think Green Bay by Thanksgiving, October, maybe the rookies then. then are ready to be big contributors. I don't think it's going to be the first week of the season. I'm going to take the Vikings straight out, sharp or square. That is very sharp, very, very sharp.

The Packers going on the road to play the Vikings, everyone will always make a big deal about how Aaron Rogers has owned his division, how Aaron Rogers against the spread has owned his division. The majority of that is against the lions and the bears. It's not as much success against the Vikings. And I do think, we saw some of this last year early in the season with the Packers, too, you are going to have a transition period without Devante Adams, who, by the way, was especially effective against the Vikings.

So now Aaron Rogers is going in with receivers nobody's heard of, who he hasn't really played with. Alan Lazzard has been banged up. And you've got an offense in Minnesota, again, Captain Kirk, who knows, but you've got a great running back. You've got an all-pro caliber receiver. You've got an offense that will probably be more explosive, probably be a lot more efficient on first down and not put Kirk Cousins in positions where he has to make bad decisions. You mentioned this line has moved. That is a fact. It has moved from about two and a half down to right now. It's Minnesota.

is, let's say, plus one and a half. So, sharp, my friend. Okay. This one's a little dicier because the Lions O' lines a tad beat up, and it is the strength of their football team. I'm going to take Detroit, now down to

three and a half, at home, lively dog against Philadelphia. I think Philadelphia by year's end is a better team. But again, lesser teams don't know their lesser teams in September, especially a Dan Campbell team, that's chewing up kneecaps and running through firewalls.

So I like the Lions here getting more than a field goal at home, sharper square. Classic sharp spot. This is one that Wise Guys pegged as soon as the lines came out. The Lions, you mentioned the offensive line. It is a strength of their team. It is one of the better offensive lines in the NFL. They've also got really good talent on the edges at running back and at receiver. Jared Goff is perfectly serviceable.

It's been a team that last year, even in spite of having a 3.13 and one record, never gave up, especially against the spread. They were effective. The wise guys fell in love with them. They were a team that everybody is pegged as being one of those teams that will not quit. Wise guys are going to be with this team all season long. They like the Lions plus four. A lot of them are taking a little bit of a taste on the money line for the lions to win outright.

All right. I like dogs this week. Texans plus seven and a half hosting the Colts. The Colts are the better team. They have, in recent years, started slow. Matt Ryan is new. I think they need and will eventually get production from Alec Pierce, the early draft pick from Cincinnati. But right now, you cross your fingers.

if Paris Campbell can be productive and healthy. It's kind of a one-man band in Michael Pittman. The Colts are going to win some low-scoring games this year. And Davis Mills, ain't bad. It's not bad. I think a live dog. I think you've got new people in the building. They play with a lot of spirit early.

I think it's closer than we think. I'm taking Texans seven and a half, sharp or square. It's totally sharp. When you were saying, not bad, not bad. If I closed my eyes, it's almost like I was on curb your enthusiasm. I could hear, he's not bad. He's not bad. Davis Mills. If he had stayed in college for another year, you could argue he would have been top 10 quarterback drafted in the NFL this year. There wouldn't have been talk about Kenny Pickett or anybody else. It would have been Davis Mills because he played well enough as a rookie to earn the right to have that job. Hey, by the way, his completion percentage, his first year with an average O-line, his passer rating, I've said this about Tua. If you'd never seen him play and looked at his numbers and said, defensive coach, bad O-line, you'd be like, hmm, then you see Tua and you're like he's small.

His deep ball dies. If you never saw Davis-Mills play and you said, second worst O-line in the league, not much to work with, bad coach, here's the numbers. he's got a fairly live arm and a long neck. And everybody knows that when you have a really long neck, that pertains greatness in a quarterback. That's why the wise guys love the Texans right now. What's interesting, this is the biggest delta between the public betting markets and the professional betting market. So if you go to actionnetwork.com, you look in the app, you can see how many tickets are a game,

the percentage of the betting tickets, and the percentage of the money. right now, looking at the stats, it's about 55% of the tickets are on the Colts. Tickets are always an indication of public money. The percentage of money is 86%. That is an indication of professionals liking the Texans, 86% on the Texans. Biggest delta there is of any game. It's why even though the majority of the bets are coming in on the Colts, the line has moved down. it was at eight and a half on Sunday.

It went down to seven and a half. Colin, it's now at seven. This is when I would say, all right, it could be time to back off. You want to be careful. But the Texans, wise guys, love them. Okay. I'm going to throw this at you.

This is the last dog I'll throw you because I like some favorite. So this is the last dog. Bears now is down to six and a half. like it as much. At seven, I'm very interested. So what we know about Trey Lance at this point, he completes 55% of his throws when he plays NFL games. And Kyle Shanahan has publicly acknowledged he's not consistent. That's what we know. We know center, right guard, right tackle. Niners O line is okay. We know the Niners have a much, much better roster. But Matt Eber Fluse, defensive coach, first game, throw the tricks at you.

decent front seven. I think their corners are okay. I think it's low scoring. I think Kyle Shanahan has an Uber conservative game plan, keep Chicago close, even if they sputter offensively. If it gets to seven, sharper square, I take the bears. Yeah, I agree. It was actually a game that I was struggling with a lot this week. Because I'm from Chicago, because I have such low expectations for the Bears, this is a great lesson for anybody who's sort of new to gambling is how to keep your emotional biases out of it, because you think you know your team better. You think you have an edge because you understand philosophy, you understand personnel, you understand scheme, whatever it is. At the end of the day, you bet the number. And the number this morning was Bears

plus seven. I woke up this morning and I was like, what am I doing? How am I not betting the Bears plus seven with a essentially rookie quarterback going on the road? It's a huge number. If it gets back to seven, people should take it. At six and a half, it's a pass. Okay. I have one more dog I'm interested in. The number's not ideal, but I think they could win handily.

Jags plus two and a half against the commanders. Commanders had a bad camp. Jags, by all accounts, great camp. But if you look at the biggest free agent spender over the last five, six years, they generally improved their win total substantially. I think the Jaggs were a better team. We don't know it yet, but I think they're a better team. I think they're going to go into D.C. and beat the commanders, sharper square.

Totally sharp. This is another one of those numbers that has dropped precipitously. It went through a key number. A key number is three. It's called the key number because a majority of games land on key numbers. three, seven, ten. Four is becoming a key number because of the two-point conversion. The Jags were four-point underdogs. They are now two and a half point underdogs. That number is dropping, by the way. It will probably be a two before kickoff if not one and a half. Everyone agrees

with you. Look, to me, I'm very bullish on the Jags. We talked about this on the favorites podcast. We love the Jags as 7.5 to 1 to win the AFC South. I bet Trevor Lawrence 70 to 1 to lead the NFL in touchdown passes. I could see a lot of people talking about Trevor Lawrence as an MVP candidate. We can say all we want about Frank Reich and what he did with Nick Foles and he was the offensive coordinator for the Eagles when they won the Super Bowl. Doug Peterson was the coach. Doug Peterson did plenty. And with the way Frank Reich has handled quarterbacks the last few years,

you've seen that Doug Peterson probably was much more involved than anybody who's giving him credit for. You give a really thoughtful, freewheeling, offensive coach, a quarterback like Trevor Lawrence. I'd say go get the Jags as AFC South to win before the season kicks off. Definitely take the Jags at plus two and a half. Okay, here are my favorites. in his career, the very impulsive Baker Mayfield has been able to harness that emotion for singular games.

The revenge win over Ohio State. The revenge wins over Texas Tech where he had huge games. The revenge win over Hugh Jackson when he went to the Bengals. The win over Pittsburgh. Now, over the course of time, he is impulsive and he can't channel that emotion properly. He's got too much of an ego. He tends to be, again, somebody that doesn't take a deep breath. He never falls on the sword.

He creates controversies instead of suppressing them as what's the great quarterbacks do. But in these one-game situations, chip on his shoulder, I'm going to prove you wrong. I've seen it at Oklahoma. I saw it in Cleveland. He's been very good. He can harness it for a week. Carolina is going to win outright minus one and a half. They were 3 and 0 to start the year last year with Darnold, and they're a better football team.

I like Carolina to win this game by a touchdown. Sharper square. 100% sharp. I'm huge on Carolina this year as well. I have them over six and a half wins. I'm a big fan of Baker in this spot. Last year, for everything you said is true, he gets in his own way. He was also injured last year.

And I think that had a big impact on his ability to. perform. I think in one game, first game of the year against a team that doesn't have its top quarterback that he is very bitter about. That alone makes it the right side. I also think the panthers like at home, their defense is improved just by virtue of Baker Mayfield being on the offense than Sam Darnold being on the offense. It gives them more of an opportunity to perform better. Christian McCaffrey, healthy. Maybe. for the only time this year because he'll have to play a game. So now's a good time to bet the Panthers.

So yes, 100%, especially with this line dropping a little bit. Okay, one more favorite. I hate doing this. I really hate it because I get talked into stuff. Kansas City minus five and a half. Okay, time out. Arizona had a weird offseason. J.J. Watt may not play.

DeAndre Hopkins, will not play. Kansas City, Andy Reed is absolutely a Messiah in September. They've got a lot to prove on the Tyreek Hill deal. There's a lot of questions about, well, they'd be as productive.

I think they'll be as productive. I don't think they'll have the lightning strike ability with Tyreek Hill. He's your Aaron Judge. You can get runs very fast. That won't be that team. but the production will not drop. I think Kansas City could pound them a little bit here. Chiefs minus five and a half, sharper square.

Right side wrong number. So good instincts. This is funny because over the years, we've known each other for a long time, you've gotten much, much sharper when it comes to these kinds of conversations. And a lot of your picks today, the Texans, the lions, like, these are very sharp picks. One of the basic principles in betting. And I explained this because there's probably a lot of new people listening who are net new to betting, right? Because your podcast network is getting so much bigger.

So you want to get the best of the number. Right. The best of the number here was three. And so now what's happened is there's been a backlash to the Kansas City backlash. People were like, oh, without Tyreek Hill, the chiefs are screwed. Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes, right? And people started to doubt his ability. He's a future Hall of Fame quarterback who's won an MVP and has won a Super Bowl

and can perform like few people we've ever seen. Their offensive line is still really good. They still have really talented players. The Arizona Cardinals barely can put together a defense right now. They've got Kyler Murray who is inconsistent. They've got Cliff Kingsbury who is consistently inconsistent when it comes to calling plays. They're missing their best wide receiver. To me, the chiefs are the right side, but I'm not going to do it because if this game lands

on three or four, I'm going to be angry and I'm going to realize why didn't I bet the best of the number. So for me, it's a pass, but I think it's the right side. Okay. And finally on Sharpen Square, I always say, you like these ugly games. And I do not. If I can't watch it or don't want to watch it, I have a hard time betting it. So give me a game this week, the sharps, the real, the guys that have, that have, they live in Chicago and eat nothing but steaks.

Who are they betting this week? There's a couple games we didn't talk about. I'm going to give you some options. And then I'm going to get one. Okay. the guys that have a tea bone for breakfast like the Giants. The Giants are an interesting one. There is a lot of sharp sentiment on the Giants.

Personally, I'm not buying it. Not at all. Now, Daniel Jones, 9-0 on the road against the spread. So he obviously, he's always been, that's sort of the line on him, is that he's better away from home than he is at home. I just don't think he's good enough. And I think the stat is

rookie head coaches in their first game are three in 19 since 2018. So now you've got a rookie head coach going on the road to play a team that has a very good head coach and a competent quarterback. And they're not huge favorites. A lot of wise guys like this spot. They've been getting a lot of sentiment. I'm not a Giants fan in this spot. There's a couple others that are interesting to me. Would you like to guess again?

Or do you want me to give you one? I'm done guessing. I bet the Steelers plus six and a half. And to me, that number is too big. Too much hype on the Bengals. It's irrational. The number's inflated. Too much of a sort of discount on Mitch Trubisky being the quarterback.

Mike Tomlin is the guy you bet in an underdog spot. Don't forget Doug Hodges. Don't forget Mason Rudolph. Don't forget this guy has won with bad quarterbacks throughout his career. He's one of the best coaches against. the spread since he's been in the league. It's a rah, raw, Mike Tomlin spot. He lives for these spots. He's terrible when he's a favorite at home on the road, Mike Tomlin with a good defense. You back Mike Tomlin at plus

six and a half. But the game that I like that I'm going to convince you of, and you would never watch this game. The Atlanta Falcons plus five and a half at home against the New Orleans since. Since 2004, divisional dogs in week one, 58, 32, and two against the spread. That's 64%. Over the last eight years, there are 29 and 9. And if you shrink it even more since 2018, the percentage is even greater. I've got a rookie head coach going on the road with a very inconsistent, unreliable quarterback. We know what we get in James Winston, right? We know what he's going to be. He's a little bit quirky. He's going to make bad decisions. He's going to make incredible throws. He's going to throw for a lot of yards. Dennis Allen is not Sean Payton.

Sean Payton, he's a guy who knows his way around a number. He knows how to cover a spread. I don't get that from Dennis Allen, who in his few years coaching has not been very good against the spread. Meanwhile, you've got a coach second year of the office. defense, he likes Swiss Army players. He's increased the number of Swiss Army players on his roster. In this spot, at a dead number like five and a half, you got to take the ugly home dog. By the way, new Fandul customers get $150 in free bets with any $5 bet. All right, we covered a lot of ground. Can I sell you on a Seattle Seahawks? Seattle Seahawks plus six and a half. Okay. I can't do it.

I cannot bet on Gino Smith. I can't. There's things I can't do in life. There's things I can't do. I'll never jump out of a plane. I'll never bet on Gino Smith. Betting means doing bad things. I'll never kill a man.

There's three. Okay. Jump out of a plane, kill a man, bet on Gino Smith. I can't do it. Those are definitely really solid rules to live by. Here's the thing. Here's the thing. If you were, if someone proposed to you, if you don't bet on Gino Smith, I will kill this man.

Would you bet on Gino Smith? No, can't do it. Can't cross that line. I can't be, I can't be seduced into going across. There are lines and parameters and boundaries. You know, he's, I remember meeting him at the parking lot in ESPN. They were bringing all the ACC quarterbacks or something pit. and Gino Smith was there.

He's a big strapping kid, nice enough. But I remember I had the same feeling later, years later with Marcus Mariotta, or maybe it was before or later, it was in the same time, that I want my quarterbacks to be like eye contact and engaging because you have to be in a huddle. And Gino and Marcus Marietta are so non-verbal. And it bothers me. I don't need you to be Chris Rock.

You don't have to be Bill Burr. you got to look at me in the eye, you've got to be engaging, you're going to have to talk up teammates. And I've never been able. I can't get it. I can't unsee the moment I met Marietta or met Gino Smith. They were big, strong athletes, nonverbal at the world's most verbal position. And also, I think Marcus is actually pretty talented. That's why the Atlanta bet, when he's upright, he's pretty good.

He's pretty good player. Not a lot of weapons, but pretty good player. I can't bet on Gino because he has accuracy issues. Unlike Marioita, he can't run off script. I get nothing. He won't look me in the eye. He's nonverbal. He's not accurate.

Shit, I jump out of a plane with a dead man before I bet Geno Smith. I feel like there's certain spots in a year where you know you want to bet on a team. Last year, Jacksonville against Indy. as the year before. Like Jacksonville beat Indy in week one. That was a time when you know you bet Jacksonville. This year, when the schedule came out and we saw the Lions plus four against the Eagles, that was a time where I knew we want to bet the Lions. You probably want to get a little bit of a taste on the money line. This is one of those spots. It's a highly emotional situation for Russell Wilson coming into a new offense into a now hostile environment that used to be

his home with a team that, you know, say what you want about Gino. They still got Metcalf on the outside. They still have serviceable running backs. It's still Pete Carroll in a game which he is going to be thinking about motivating his team in different ways. They'll get up for one game this year. They're a terrible team. They'll get up for one game. This is the game. And six and a half is a big, big number. Chad Millman, Action Network. Every Friday, It's called Sharper Square. I'm clearly the latter. I'm getting better.

But this is one of my favorite segments because I do feel like we are at some point, not only educating me, obviously, but the audience a little bit. We all get sharper. So it's good to see anybody. Good to see you too, man. Good luck this weekend. Volume. Make sure to check out the Dremon Green show.

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