The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Chargers/Chiefs TNF Reaction + 'Sharp or Square' Week 2 NFL Picks

Episode Date: September 16, 2022

Colin reacts to the Chargers tough Thursday Night road loss to the Chiefs at Arrowhead, and what he sees as their glaring weakness through 2 weeks. (3:00) Then the Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 2 picks are "sharp" or "square". They look at Patriots/Steelers (9:00), Bucs/Saints (11:00), Commanders/Lions (17:00), Jets/Browns (19:00), Bengals/Cowboys (22:00),Vikings/Eagles, and Colts/Jags (28:00). Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! #Herd #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel,

help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.

Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan,

so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tauntons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule. of two. Listen to Stuff to Bole Your Mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.

A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Clever Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Cliver Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes,

creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. The volume.

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Just use the promo code Colin and download the Fandual app today. All right, let's do a little instant reaction on the Chargers close loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Then we'll have Chad Milman in for another edition of Sharp or Square, where I take six or seven games where I'm leaning for my blazing five picks. And am I a square? Do I know what I'm talking? about. So first of all, it's pretty hard to judge this game holistically. Keenan Allen, best receiver for the Chargers out. Facing Patrick Holmes. Corey Lindsley, Pro Bowl Center, gets hurt. Another offensive lineman for the Chargers gets hurt. Justin Herbert gets hurt. So a pretty heroic effort by Herbert. I thought the first half, the Chargers controlled it and didn't take a big

enough lead. And therefore, when Mahomes strikes, which he does, you got to have quite a lead built up at Arrowhead against Mahomes. And it was one big mistake on the pick six for Herbert, which by the way, I did not see it as a mistake by Herbert. It looked like Everett, the tied in for the chargers, wanted to come out of the game, was gassed and ran kind of a lazy route. So that goes on Justin Herbert, but I thought it was the tight end Everett who ran a

row and didn't finish it and was signaling to take himself out of the game on the previous play. He was gassed. I will say this is my concern about the Chargers because I think top to bottom, you can certainly make the argument. Many of the people in the league that I trust think the Chargers have the best roster along with the Bills in the National Football League. Is that in two games with the Chargers, I think they've underachieved offensively. So one thing about L.A. that's really easy to spot is Mac and Bosa and that defense, they bring a lot of heat. I mean, Patrick Mahomes was knocked off his spot, a little bit unsettled in the first half. If you watch the chargers in the first half, they forced Reed and Mahomes.

Out of respect, Reed and Mahomes, really, very few deep drops. It was get rid of the ball as fast as you can. Well, that's Andy Reed and Patrick Mahomes telling you, we have so much respect for their rush. We don't want to put Patrick Mahomes on the crosshairs and get buried. So in the first half, the Chief's game plan was telling you how much respect they had for Bosa, Mac, Derwin, James, and the rest. And again, the Chargers just didn't get, you know, didn't put enough points on the board. But what concerns me about the Chargers, and I've been talking about this now for over a year on all my platforms, young quarterbacks are better serve with offensive head coaches.

Brandon Staley, defensive head coach, Herbert was the best quarterback in the league not to make the playoffs last year. And in two games, I've watched them, their defensive line mauled Derek Carr, three picks. They didn't put him away until the very end, didn't put the Raiders away with three picks. Of the 42 dropbacks Derek Carr had in that game, he was pressured on 32 of them, hit or sacked. 32 of 42, three picks, didn't put them away until the end. And the Chargers have a better roster than the Raiders, especially on defense. And then in this game, they left too many points on the table. I don't think it's an overly creative offense. Joe Lombardi's been in this league for a long time. I don't, I think they're at times too reliant. And again, no Keenan Allen,

but kind of reliant on safe throws, stuff thrown before the sticks. I just don't see enough clever with the Chargers offense. It doesn't make me think. It doesn't surprise me. And again, tonight's tough. Herbert's in pain. Corey Lindley's out. Keenan Allen's out.

You're at Arrowhead. Hard to hear. I get that. But in two games, that's my takeaway. This was the best quarterback in the league last year that didn't make the playoffs, as the NFL added another playoff team to both conferences. And I watch them right now. And I think to myself, they're just not.

creative enough offensively. And it's not an offensive line issue. They've upgraded that. It's not a Herbert issue. I mean, they've drafted wide receivers. Well, they have a nice tight end. They have capable backs. Am I seeing what you're seeing?

I've got my issues with the Chargers offense. Herbert was a four-point biology major, GPA, a tutor in college. Give him more. Make him think. You can pile a lot on that kid, even though he's only at the beginning. of his third year. In terms of Kansas City, listen, I didn't think, I thought they were a little bit overwhelmed at the line of scrimmage in the first half, and they came back and won the game, thanks to a great defensive play. So your Kansas City, this matchup is usually tight. It was tight again.

They almost botched that onside kick, but you're going to be in a lot of close games over the next 10 years with Herbert and the Chargers. And, you know, Kansas City does this. Mahomes has his halves and his stretches where he looks a little off. But in the end, he made some big-time plays. And Kansas City's defense came to the rescue. But my bigger takeaway was, despite the injuries, I'm not seeing a charger offense. Throw the ball past the sticks, take big swings, big chances. Herbert should maybe roll out more. He's really big and really mobile. Most of the stuff is all five-step drops, sit in the pocket stuff. Little disappointed, not just in the loss, but just situationally, first two games, I'm bored with the Chargers offense.

Be more multiple, more motions, more personnel groupings, more clever. I'd like to see it. All right, let's go. Action Network, Chad Millman, it's time for Sharper Square. All right, it's Sharper Square, Chad Millman, CCO of the Action Network. Now, on my blazing five, I went three and two. If not for a field goal from 58 yards, I would have gone four. four and one. So I make my picks over the course of a week. I've made totally different picks

based on over the last 48 hours new information show sharper square. Here we go. I think the Patriots are going to beat the Steelers with Watt out. It's not the same pass rush. We know that Belichick eats alive bad quarterbacks, mediocre quarterbacks, or young quarterbacks. Belichick has owned, owned Mike Tomlin. Steelers are now like plus two and a half. Tomlin's a much better underdog coach that I get. But I'm going to take the Patriots. Belichick doesn't lose back to back against an average quarterback.

Patriots minus two and a half, sharp or square? That is completely sharp, Colin. So we talked about this last week with the Steelers. We love the Steelers at plus six and a half against the Cincinnati Bengals. That was, as you just noted, a rah-rah Mike Tomlin spot. You're getting a good defense on the road, world beating time. Mike Tomlin, an emotional guy rallies his troops. This situation where they're underdogs not quite the same.

Number one, you don't have T.J. Watt. that's no good. Number two, Mitch Trubisky was proven to be what he is, a mediocre to less than mediocre quarterback. The Steelers have now had a week of film where they realized, oh, crap, we're going back to Mitch Trubisky against a Patriots team that is coming in hot, not meaning like they've winning a lot, meaning like they are steaming in desperate need of a win. Week two is all about overreaction, underreaction. And you don't have data to really build any ideas yet as a better. So in week two, you want to be looking for these opportunities. This game opened at one and a half. Even though the majority of the betting tickets right now are on the Steelers, 66% of the money is on the Patriots.

That tells you the wise guys are on the Patriots. Buccaneers injury report almost looks like a comedy this week. All their receivers mispractice. We find out that Brady now is living apart from Giselle. Bit of an S show. He now takes Wednesdays off for the family. The Saints have their number four and oh against Brady, healthier team.

And oh, by the way, James Winston played really, really well in the second half. When he was upright and he had time is really good. I'm going to take the Saints plus two and a half at home. What say you, Sharper Square? A hundred percent sharp side. This is one of the games that almost immediately the wives guys pegged as something they were going to bet. It opened at three. It's down to two and a half.

It's down to two and a half, even though this is called what's, this is what's called reverse line movement. The majority of the bets are on the Buccaneers, right? But the line has moved in the direction of the Saints. That means that the money, the professional betters, have come in on the Saints. You got a lot of different things working in your favor here. Number one, you've got the Saints who are a little bit undervalued to start. They were underdogs of a field goal. That's a key number.

Wise guys bet it two. Divisional home dogs. We talked about this last week with week one. It's applicable throughout the year. When I look at the board every single week, the first thing I'm looking for, home dogs, then divisional home dogs, and where will there be an over-indexing for public perception? This has all three of those things. Put on your favorite game day gear because college footballs here and Fandu wants you to get in on the action.

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embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what I'm saying.

Yep, that's me, Clever Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.

One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to The Clifford show on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast

network on TikTok. There's a lot of double-digit favorites this week. As you well know, always try to stay away from them. The numbers tell you take the Packers. I deep down think the Broncos, if not for two one-yard fumbles, would have won that game convincingly. But I'm going to stay away for now. I'm going to take the Lions at home minus two and a half over the commanders. I don't love either team. Wence is mistake prone in his career more so on the road. I thought they were a little lucky at home to beat the Jags, who instead of field goals,

went for it, had a drop by Travis A.T.N. that would have been a touchdown. I thought they got a little bit of breaks. I thought Doug Peterson took some unnecessary road risks. I would have taken field goals. I thought the Jags, when that game was over, were the better team. And I think Detroit's better than the Jags. And now it's in Detroit minus two and a half.

I'm taking the Lions, sharp or square? Totally sharp. First time, the first time that the Detroit Lions are favorites in 24 games. that is a record in the Super Bowl. That is how long it's been. I loved the Lions last week against the Eagles, and I started to get nervous about it because sometimes when there is a team getting so much sentiment

as an underdog, you start to get nervous that it's the wrong side. And then the Lions did exactly what we thought they would do. They backed or covered. They stayed in the game. They didn't stop no matter how out of it they were. That's who they are, right? They are a team that they do not stop. Washington gave up six yards per carry against Jacksonville.

Detroit has a significantly better running game, and it wants to run more than the Jags do. I agree with you about Doug Peterson. I thought he put the Jags in a couple of weird spots when they really had a chance to win that game. This is a huge letdown spot from Carson Wentz. And like the Lions, if they are healthy, which there have been some questions. marks in the offensive line, but I think the expectation is everybody will play. They have one of the best offensive lines. So they're going to be able to compete at the line of scrimmage, which is where you need if you want to win close games in the NFL. Okay, I like points always,

but I'm going to give you a favorite I like. I don't like to be called a square. I think I probably am. Cleveland minus six and a half at home to the Jets. I think the Jets right now are a bad team. Now, Jacoby Brissette is what he is. They're at home, home opener. The rosters are not close. And the Jets have a major left tackle issue. And I believe Watt and Miles Garrett are easily the best two pass rushers. So I get immobile Joe Flacko, left tackle issue, not a very good roster, a developing roster. I'm going to swallow the six and a half in Cleveland at home, Sharper Square. I mean, dude. We've been talking about this for more than 10 years at this point. I can't believe you would take the Browns in this spot.

I feel like you're doing it just to bait me. This is exactly when you take the Jets. We talked about this last week with the Seahawks. I begged you to take the Seahawks as six and a half point dogs against the Broncos. It is the same exact scenario. You are getting so much inflation in this line. Everyone is so excited. The Browns went on the road.

Jacoby Brissette, they beat Baker. Meanwhile, the Jets are getting throttled with Joe Flacco. No team is ever as good as they look. No team is ever as bad as they look. Like I said, week two, all about overreaction. A couple stats for you. Week two underdogs that didn't cover week one by seven or more points. The last 20 years, 60% against the spread. Week Two dogs who just didn't cover in week one, 64% against the spread since 2005. Week two dogs of six or less of a straight up loss. And the Jets started at six, 67% against the spread. So you got to hold your nose.

You got to bet it. Like, I know you don't even want to watch the game, so you're not going to bet it. But the Jets are the side here. And by the way, if the Jets lose, that's fine. You make these plays over the long term and you end up being a 60% winner and that's what you're trying to be. All right. Another favorite that I think is kind of tasty. And I know, again, I know I'm a square.

Of all the big favorites, Bengals, minus eight and a half against the Cowboys. Now, it's not, I'm not sure I'm going to bet this, but I think Dallas is a bad football team, a bad team. Now with a backup quarterback. I think Cincinnati's a good team that played the best underdog coach in the world with the best pass rush outside of Buffalo in the world. And I think the Bengals, because as Joe Burrow told me on my podcast, he didn't get to practice much. Appendectomy surgery, they take something out of your body. It is a major surgery. The timing was terrible against the great defense.

This is a average defense. I think Cincinnati buries them. It's my blow out of the week. well, I feel like there are other games that should be your blowout of the week because this is a really tricky spot. Eight and a half points on the road against a team that is desperate. You always got to think about the emotional elements of the game, right? And the first game with a backup quarterback for a team that knows its season is on the line is always when they are playing their best. You get that team as a massive underdog at home, and that's when you play the home underdog.

The same stats I just gave you for the Jets, all applicable for the Cowboys. They lost by double digits. They are huge home underdogs. It doesn't matter if DAC is playing or not. But also, think about this. And I'll ask you these questions. I need you to answer them. Do you think Dak Prescott is a good quarterback?

I think he's a B quarterback. So you don't think he's a top 10 quarterback. No, no. All right. So if DAC is playing, maybe the Bengals are, say, a point and a half favorites. Maybe they're, maybe it's push. Do you really think DAC is worth eight and a half points against the spread? Is he worth seven and a half points against the spread?

No. Those are the guys who are the best quarterbacks in the NFL. That's not Dak. So the inflation on this line is so big that the wise guys are going to take the cowboys. This line has come down, if only because they know the number became too big because the public perception is the cowboys can't win without death. All right. Let's go back to some dogs. So I have three picks I love, Patriots, Saints, Lions.

Then I'm just feeling my way through this shit. Okay. The one that's interesting to me, people really like Philadelphia. the fact that they're a favorite against Minnesota, a team I absolutely love. But the numbers only two. So it's telling me that if it was three, I would take the Vikings. Two, it's begging me to take the Eagles. That's what it feels like to me.

It kind of feels like it's a sucker bet to take the perceived better team in Minnesota, right? The minus two is telling me bet the Eagles, sharp or square? Totally sharp. That's exactly what you should do. It's exactly what I did. You could have gotten this at one and a half. I got it at one a half. Yeah, they are begging you to take the Eagles here. Look, the Vikings, they beat up on the Packers in a really big spot. Justin Jefferson had a season making game. Kirk Cousins looked amazing. Their new offense with a new coach, a Sean McVeigh acolyte. Everyone thinks they're amazing now. The Eagles, look, if you just look at the scoreboard, they only beat the Detroit Lions by three, and everyone downgrades them a little bit if they aren't actually looking at how the game was played. The Eagles dominated that game. And they were ahead by double digits for a long period in that game. The lion snuck in through the back door.

But that was a dangerous spot. You and I talked about this. I thought the Lions could sneak out a win there. Like this was one of the games where I really felt the Eagles could go in, fall full. flat, and then they'd end up running the table because they'd be great and they'd win the NFC East. So the fact they'd get out of there with Jalen Hertz, who's grading so well as a quarterback right now and has so many weapons around him, Eagles are the side. This week's gold medal performance goes to a quarterback who lived up to the hype in week one.

Josh Allen showed his MVP worth in the bill's opening romp over the Rams, unlike Brady and Montana. Alan isn't the best quarterback in the NFL, but he's the most talented. more physical than Big Ben, more refined than Cam Newton. Alan will have an amazing career while sometimes driving you crazy. Love watching him play, though. This week's gold medal performance sponsored by Legacy Precious Metals. The stock market's been plummeting. Many economists predicting it's just the beginning, which could mean tremendous losses in your portfolio.

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Or perhaps download their comprehensive gold guide. It's great at legacy pminvestments.com, legacy pm investments.com. Give me your bet. It's often, it's often an ugly bet that you'll say something. I want a game that we have not to. discussed. This is a bonus for the audience on Sharper Square, a game that you like that I haven't perceived. The team that I would like to, you two think about, Jacksonville Jaguars plus four and a

half. I did. It was one of my initial picks. It was, I, so you like the Jags or the Colts? Love the Jags. On Sunday night, I'm watching the Sunday night game. I open up the lines and I see Jags plus four and a half. First game I bet. Love the Jags in this. spot. I liked the Jags. I didn't bet him. So I thought the number got a little out of control, but I like the Jags to win the AFC South. I think Doug Peterson and Trevor Lawrence can be a magical combination. There was a lot to like in that game against Washington. And you alluded to it. I thought they were a better team. They were the better team. And Doug Peterson, I don't know that he made all the right calls. I also think Trevor Lawrence, I think he was just amped. Team has three

touchdown passes that were just bad throws because he was overthrowing people. So you're getting the Jags at home against the mediocre Colts team, in my opinion, that is favored by more than two key numbers, favored by more than three, favored by more than four. The Colts, every time they go to Jacksonville, they shit the bet. Like, they cannot win there. I don't know what it is. I don't know if it's the heat.

I don't know if it's Frank Wright, does it build good game plans? I don't think Frank Reich is that good of a coach early in the season. That's been proven out. I think this Jacks team is on the rise. And I don't think you'll get them at this kind of a number the rest of the year because I think people will catch up to it. So that was one of my favorite picks as our producers know. I like the Jags. And then I talked myself out of it because I thought Frank Reich and Matt Ryan are desperate.

There's going to be heat on Frank. There's a lot of heat on him. But you're talking me out of it. All right. Patriots, saints, lions, eagles, jags. Got it. You know what? I'm going to sleep on it.

I like the Packers too, but I'm not going to go there right now. God. I listen. This is a public perception game, right? And if you're going to play the public perception game as a better, you can't just do it in spots where you think the public is undervaluing a team. and only bedding underdogs, it's important to look at the whole board, right?

It's important to think about it from the other side, too. The Packers at minus 10, this is also in a classic overreaction spot. The public right now loves the bears because of what they did against the Niners. They beat the Niners in a freaking monsoon. Meanwhile, the Vikings beat up on Interr Rogers. All you're seeing all week is the wide receiver who dropped the wide over. touchdown pass. You're seeing the wide receiver who couldn't get his head around on a short throw from Aaron Rogers. You've seen Aaron Rogers being frustrated. I know how we both feel

about Aaron Rogers. I would not be betting against Aaron Rogers in this game. Like, this is a really important game for him. The sharp side to me is the Packers. All right, Millman, great stuff. Sharper Square every week at this time. Good talking to you. See you, brother. The volume. Make sure to check out the Dramon Green Show. I brought Dramon Green into the volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports, unique perspective, understands behind the rope. Also, chops up with guests like Gary Payton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady.

Make sure download the Dramon Green Show wherever you get your podcast, only on the volume podcast network. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, Not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not. not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast.

Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of taun tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith Rule of Two. Listen to Stuff to Blow Your Mind on the iHeart Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever, you get your podcast. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits,

my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfills of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard,

but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to The Cliford Show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcast. or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford

and at TikTok's podcast network on TikTok. This is an IHeart podcast, Guaranteed Human.