The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Chiefs Beat Ravens, Sharp or Square, College Football Picks

Episode Date: September 6, 2024

Colin reacts to the NFL season opener with the Kansas City Chiefs beating the Baltimore Ravens by the length of a toe (3:00) He explains why Lamar Jackson can’t get hit that much, why the Chiefs have solved their “weapons problem" and why he’s not selling his Ravens stock (6:00). Then, Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a season opening of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for Week 1 19:00- Cardinals vs Bills  21:00 - Panthers vs Saints 25:00 - Commanders vs Buccaneers 27:00 - Broncos vs Seahawks 28:30 - Jets vs 49ers  30:15 - Browns vs Cowboys 32:45 - Bears vs Titans  34:30 - Vikings vs Giants 37:00 - Colts vs Texans 39:00 - Rams vs Lions Finally, Colin breaks down two of his favorite college football matchups of the weekend, Colorado vs Nebraska and Texas vs. Michigan and makes his picks for each (50:00)! (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!  #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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If you wonder why the NFL is king on television, 27 to 20 tonight was a great example. Decided by that much. A toe decides the game. Listen, Baltimore was outplayed for big chunks of this thing and almost tied it. They almost certainly would have gone for two and the win. And that's why Baltimore is so dangerous.

You know, Lamar Jackson did not throw the ball down the field effectively, nor has he ever as well as Patrick Mahomes, although Mahomes did not throw the ball down the field much last year because it was one of the worst receiving cores in the league. With Worthy now, that's a deep threat. They've added some dimensions and over the top receiver. Juju Smith-Schuster will become more productive over time. He just got reacquired. So Watson, Rice now, Rishi Rice looks like a number one. Worthy's going to be a gadget guy. early. I don't think he's a heavy volume guy, a 9-10 catch guy, but he adds an element they didn't have. He's an over-the-top playmaker. But it's interesting watching Baltimore. They had a lot of offensive penalties, especially early in the game. They don't throw the ball down the field enough. And then you get that final drive by Lamar Jackson, where, I mean, it honestly, he reminds me of,

like, a great high school player where he's just so much better than everybody else on the field. He's like a high school football game and there's one D1 prospect and it's the quarterback and he's just running around making all these plays happen. Lamar Jackson makes other great pro football players look slow and unathletic. And that's why I'll always defend him. He's not Mahomes. And Peyton Manning probably wasn't Brady. You know, and Mickelson wasn't Tiger Woods and Berkeley was an MJ. Lamar Jackson is so productive.

He cares so much. Now, I thought my one real negative with Lamar Jackson, you can't get hit that many times. I'm sorry, you can't last 17 games in the regular season, two or three playoff games playing like that. Lamar's lost weight. He's thinner. And he took a beating tonight. Now, I think this game means so much to Lamar. He's not going to slide.

He's not going to run out of bounds against Kansas City. So I don't think Lamar is going to play like this, this sort of physical football game on average. But he took a beating tonight. And that Kansas City defense is fast and physical. That you have to reduce. You can't play like that. But I will defend Lamar to the very end. He is such a remarkable player.

You know, he doesn't throw the ball down the field consistently, but he finally has a really nice group of receivers. Isaiah likely is terrific. That's the football game. And the fact that that guy went down in the back of the end zone, I thought he broke his ribs. I mean, he just slammed down. on the corner where it's not, you know, it's not padded very well, gets up and he's making plays.

What a gamer. You know, I look at my notes over the course of the game. I think here's the really good news for Kansas City. Last year, it's often discussed, right, ad nauseum. That receiving core is bad. Rishie Rice was young. He felt like maybe a two. He felt like a one tonight.

You know, now, is he a great one? Is he a top five one? Is he C.D. Lamb? Is he Devante Adams? No. But he felt like a real go-to, high volume, 13 targets, nine-catch guy for them. They have now Noah Gray.

They've got a second tight end. Watson's around. Juju Smith-Schuster. And again, Xavier Worthy. You know, I joked when they drafted him, I'm like, he's a track guy. He's 165 pounds. You know, I don't think that he's going to lead them to the Super Bowl.

But he adds a dimension to an offense that since Tyreek Hill left, They don't have a downfield threat. So, you know, for the longest time in the game, he just had that one, you know, reverse touchdown, but blown coverage later, he gets a second touchdown. And you have to account for him. You know, that's the bottom line. Last year, you didn't have to account for anybody. Nobody scared you down the field. Well, now they have a one in Rishi Rice.

They have a downfield threat. They have multiple Watson, Noah Gray, Travis Kelsey. They've solved their weapons issue. For the record, how the hell did Isaiah Pachecki? what did he drop to the seventh round? How did they get him in the seventh round? That guy's insane. It's just, it's amazing to me.

You get to the 14th player in the NBA draft. You're out of players. Brock Purdy's the last guy I'd taken, and Isaiah Pacheco, I think he was a seventh round guy. God, how did all these GMs watch film and just keep passing on him? He's impossible to bring down, run so hard, he can catch it out of the backfield.

What a weapon he is. So Kansas City's weapon shortage, they're going to be fine there. And this is, you're just looking at two great organizations. I love watching these two play. And there's a reason Kansas City keeps winning, Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes. You know, they led 20 to 10 at one point. I kind of felt first half, I thought Baltimore was just kind of trying to find its footing. They weren't throwing the ball down the field.

The second half, Kansas City, and that screen game pulls a little. way. I thought, you know, if you watch that game, you could say, yeah, Kansas City controlled big chunks of it, and here comes Lamar. Just putting the team on his back, taking too many shots, running down the field, making big plays. The guy's just an all-timer, just an absolute alt-timer. But, you know, sports is like this. You know, if you take Tiger Woods out, think how many tour events, Mickelson wins. I mean, Philip, he had to have over like 45 tour wins, didn't he? Take out one guy. Take out Barclay, and it changes, take out MJ, it changes Berkeley's career with titles, take out John Elway's career, Joe Montana, Brady. There's so many

great athletes who we spend so much time criticizing because they can't beat the legend. I talked about that on FS1 today. God, Lamar is just so unique and so gifted, but he took a beating tonight, and you just can't play that way. Adda, with Baltimore and Camas, he's a day with Baltimore and Kansas City tonight, all the weapons, all the talented players on the perimeter and running backs. I kept thinking, does Buffalo match up with these guys now that Stefan Diggs is out? Like, I'm watching all these weapons for Kansas City and Baltimore, including their quarterbacks.

You know who matches up in the AFC? Houston. Houston's got these kind of weapons, adding Joe Mixon, Stefan Diggs, Tank Dell, Nico Collins, C.J. Stroud. like I'm both these teams tonight. I mean, it's tight ends, it's wide receivers, it's slot guys, it's running backs, it's all-time quarterbacks. You know, Buffalo is, I like Cook, a couple good tight ends, a rookie receiver.

You know, Buffalo may be what Kansas City was last year, and they may be weapon short. And that's why a lot of people, myself included kind of like Houston. I mean, at some point, last year may have been the year to beat Kansas City. That may have been the year. You know, they weren't going to have home field. They couldn't beat you in a track meet. They had to keep the games pretty close and low scoring. Now, this team's back to, I mean, again, this is Worthy's first game.

What's Xavier Worthy going to do in week 8 through 13? Week 10 through 17. So last year may have been the year to get Kansas City. What a night. I chewed two pieces of. my neuro gum to stay up tonight. I'm not messing around. Now, I may be staring at the ceiling at one in the morning. That was a beauty. Sometimes I feel so lucky to do what I do for a living. I'm sitting there tonight. I ordered DoorDash eating some Mexican food, and I'm sitting there watching that. And I'm

like, I mean, this is, how good is this? Arrowhead, Mahomes, Reed, Harbaal, Lamar Jackson. And I'll just say it again. Baltimore didn't play particularly well. And it was this close. So you can sell all your Ravens stock. I'm buying it. I didn't think they played that well. I didn't think Lamar played that well. And he's driving him down against that incredible defense. You know, because of Reed and Mahomes, that Kansas City defense, it'll just never get the love.

It is so fast, so twitchy, consistent pass rush, Chris Jones, edge rush, linebackers that move well. That's it. Or Baltimore probably goes for two and has a chance to win. when you don't play particularly well on the road in narrowhead and almost beat the Chiefs, I'd be worried. These two will meet again. That's what it feels like to me. NFL week one is here, and a new season means new ways to get in on the action at Draft King's Sportsbook an official sports betting partner of the NFL. So fans have spoken. They want to bet on touchdowns. Draft Kings hurt us. They're delivering. Draft King Sportsbook's the number one place

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All of the odds. 100,000, man. We're giving away $100,000. Wow. Thousand. A thousand. Come on the thousand on the volume podcast network. We're big time.

All of our odds provided by draft kings. I spent a lot of time this summer in, you know, in a place out east. Yes. Very close to where you live. I played a lot of golf. And during that time, a lot of time to think about odds. And I almost did not do a first week of this. And my take has been the world's changed.

All these sharps pick at these line one odds. They have all summer to pick at these puppies once they're available. This is a terrible week to bet. And then I look at the numbers this week. And I'm like, it may not be the best. But I got a couple I like, and I'm going to start with one of them that I'm being warned about, Arizona plus six and a half at Buffalo. I thought the Cardinals were a tough out at the end of last year.

I think the last couple of drafts, they've hit on some playmakers. I like Kyler Murray. I think he's hard to duplicate preparing for. He's like, nobody else in the league. He's like, to me, he's a better version of Russell Wilson in his prime, and Russell was pretty good. I think Arizona plus six and a half is not only the play. I think they could win Sharper Square. Ish.

Like of all the games, I'm with you, brother. Like, I actually think there's a lot of opportunity in week one. Arizona is a team. I'm not going to lie to you. Wise guys love. They think that the NFC West, they love Seattle. They love my. McDonald as a coach. They are really bullish on Arizona. This number actually clicked down,

got down to six. It was much higher even during the offseason. It's ticked a little bit back up. I think there was some over-exuberance on the Cardinals. And don't forget, this is the kind of game that the bills historically not just cover, but dominate. Right. And so there are so many unknowns in this game. Professional betters, they are going to lean towards underdogs in week one, and that's going to be a theme for everything we're talking about, and I've got a lot of numbers to back it up for folks. But this one is trickier. I think it's six and a half. Yes, if it goes back down to six, probably no. Don't forget, six has become a lot more of a key number with extra point sort of inaccuracy and inconsistency. So I can't give you a definitive. I can say,

if I got to play a side, I'm playing Arizona. But I don't think it's blazing by any means. Okay, that wasn't my best pick. I'm just throwing shit out. Good. Let's warm up. Let's just warm up. The one I really like is Carolina plus three and a half of the Saints.

I think New Orleans is poorly quarterback and poorly coached. I think they'll be the first team to jettison their head coach. I think Carolina massive coach upgrade. If you look at the wide receiver unit, Last year, worst in the league next to New England. They've actually upgraded so starters are now backups, and it's like, oh, Mingo can be a three or a four, not a one or a two. I looked at Carolina. I'd go money line.

I think they win this game straight out, sharper square. Dude, you are Ginsoo Knife Sharp right now. That is, you have gone from kind of me, mid, as the kids like to say, to full-on super sharp. Carolina has been a team that at the Action Network, we have been hammering all offseason. We have been hammering their season win total over. That jumped up from four and a half to five and a half. We've been hammering their odds to win the division.

Everything about this team last year, and you and I talked a lot about this in previous seasons. We do this thing called luck rankings, which basically takes all of the randomness of football and puts it into a formula and then applies it throughout the season. Last year, the Panthers were one of the most unlucky teams in the NFL. That is always bound to regress in sort of very analytic terms.

They won about a game and a half less than they should have based on the stats and the randomness of games. So now, all of a sudden, they've improved their offensive line, right? They've got a couple of new guards. They've improved at receiver. They've improved their coaching. Let's be very clear. Dave Canales, the new head coach. He was the coordinator in Seattle when Gino Smith went from Journeyman to Pro Bowler. He was the coordinator for Tampa Bay when Baker Mayfield went from Journeyman to leading the team to the playoffs. Now all of a sudden, he's got Bryce Young,

who there's a lot of negativity about. That's why this line is so inflated. This line was at four and a half. It's gone down to four because wise guys are betting it. And you said it about the Saints. there was a survey before the C, before we got to preseason, which fan base had the least optimism about their team? It was the New Orleans Saints. Who has the shortest odds to be fired first? Dennis Allen. Who is hearing footsteps from Spencer Rattler right now?

Derrick Carr. Dennis Allen and Derrick Carr, in their respective positions as head coach and quarterback, are two of the worst against the spread of any grouping for the past 20 years. They are terrible as favorites, also just generally bad. Dennis Allen is historically bad as a head coach

with a minimum 70 games, which is what he has. So you are spot on. One stat for you. NFL division underdogs in week one since 2014. So the Panthers as underdogs to the Saints, 71% against the spread.

Not only that, they covered the spread by an average of five points per game, which largely says, I agree with you. You could take a lot of little bit of a taste, and I never mind this, like a quarter unit on the underdog to win outright. All right. Weather concern could be a monsoon, but commanders plus three and a half at the

bucks. I think Tampa has to guess what Washington's doing. They have to go watch Arizona footage, LSU footage. Washington knows exactly what they are. Cliff Kingsbury banged the table for Jaden Daniels. Dan Quinn was a very good coach when he had the right coordinator. I think. I think this coordinator. I talked to a GM that hired him, Steve Kime. He said, Cliff is great. He said, I don't know if he's an NFL head coach. The discipline is an issue. But as an NFL coordinator or a college coach, he said, I would back him forever. This is a great role for Kingsbury. I think Washington's personnel is fine. Tampa's guessing, I think they pull back as a team this year, Tampa. I'm going to take commanders plus three and a half, sharper square. Yeah, it's sharp.

I mean, it's not the favorite. Like, if I had eight bets I had to make this weekend, this is probably seventh or eighth, right? I will be playing the commanders, but this team right now, I just talked about the luck rankings, the Buccaneers, and you noted there's going to be some regression. The Buccaneers were amongst the luckiest teams in the NFL last year,

and the commanders were one of the 10 most unlucky. So just the gap between these two teams is reflected, I think in a higher than it should be point spread because of perception, right? The commanders, number two, number three overall pick, the Buccaneers, they made the playoffs, they had a good run. They have lost important aspects of that team, specifically Dave Canales. Baker 14 and 26 in his career as a favorite. Everything about this game says take the commanders.

So the wise guys are with you. An interesting game. I don't like big favorites in the opening week. And I think Bo Nix and Sean Payton are going to be excellent together compared to what the market predicts. I think there are a seven-win team, not a four-win team. Do not like them here. Rookies starting week one on the road against a very sharp, maybe the next D'Amico Ryan's defensive coach. Seattle, I like Pete Carroll last two years.

They underwhelmed. They have better talent. I mean, offensively, it's Noah's Ark. Two receivers, two tight ends, two running backs, two tackles. I like everything. I think Seattle minus six is the play. This is a rough spot. And I like Boenix.

This is a rough opening week. I take Seattle minus six. Yeah, look, that's the exact right spot. Historically, rookie quarterbacks on the road are just terrible. Rookie first round picks on the road. average 18 points per game the past 10 years. It is not a good spot. There is a lot of professional better love for Mike McDonald.

They loved the game plans he put together when he was the defensive coordinator in Baltimore. They are expecting a much better defense in Seattle. I think that's what you're seeing here is just a little bit of a difference in talent on the roster. Historically, wise guys, they don't like to bet against shot. Sean Payton. They got, like, Sean Payton is their favorite coach. Right. Along with Mike Tomlin.

But Mike McDonald's in the spot, like, they look at him not as a rookie head coach. In a lot of ways, the way that people looked at D'Amico Rines last year, they got a lot of faith in what he can do. So wise guys are with you. I'm going to take Jets plus four and a half against the Niners. It's a noisy game, the baggage bowl. But Trent Williams can't be in great shape. I do worry about Hassan Reddick not in camp because they love.

lost huff to the Eagles. But I don't worry too much about pass rush. I don't like the Niners' offensive line, especially when Trent just gets back into camp. That feels like it's just too rich. I don't know if they win, but, God, I don't get the line at all. I would take the Jets plus four and a half sharper square. Totally sharp. It's what's really interesting about this, Colin, is since Trent Williams signed, the line has

moved a full point from three and a half to four and a half. That's how much bookmakers and then the public betters believe Trent Williams was worth. They have steamed this line up and wise guys are happy to take the four and a half. You mentioned the offensive line for to the 49ers. That's the weakness of their team, right? And even with Trump Williams, who was probably the best left tackle in the NFL, they are able to mask that weakness because Kyle Shanahan's scheme is so good in the way. he can move the ball around that they're able to get away with having an offensive line that is a little bit mediocre. The Jets have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. And I agree with you about Hassan Radick. The guy hasn't played for the Jets at all. So they don't really know what

they're missing. And obviously, Bryce off being gone is an impact. But they have a stout defensive line. They will find a way to get to the quarterback against this offensive line. the wise guys love, love the Jets in this spot. All right. Another game, I never trust the Browns ever. I love their coach. And I have real questions about the depth of Dallas's offensive talent. I worry about blocking Miles, Garrett.

But God, I know what I get from Dak and Mike McCarthy. I don't know what the hell I get with Deshaun Watson. I get Dallas plus two and a half. half, I'm going to take them. I'm going to take the Cowboys, Sharp or Square? Yeah, it's sharp, but not a lot of conviction. Like, it's not, you know, I just said there's probably eight bets on the board. My voice told you I didn't have a lot of conviction.

Yeah, you don't have a lot of conviction. I'm actually surprised you chose it. I don't know if you feel like you've got to talk about the Cowboys is like the lowest common denominator as a member of the media. But, like, it's not a game that I'm excited about, like, as a better for all the reasons you just said. I think the Cowboys are the Houston Rockets circa 2012 of the NFL, right? A lot of talent.

They're great in the regular season, fall apart when it matters. I'm not a buyer. I'm McCarthy. I just don't think he's a very good coach. I think what you said about the lack of depth on offense is a real issue, and that's continued to be an issue for the past couple of years. Listen, the Brown's defense last year, at home, historic. Miles Garrett, we just talked about Trent Williams,

being a line changer when it comes to moving the point spread. Miles Garrett is like that. Miles Garrett is the kind of defensive force from a betting perspective and from a line-making perspective that JJ Watt was about 12 years ago. Bookmakers have to account for his presence with a point, half a point in terms of the spread. But we don't know anything about Deshaun Watson.

And also, I will tell you one other thing that I think is sticking out in people's minds from a professional betting point of view. Bill Callahan is an art. offensive line coach, genius. And he is one of the reasons why that Brown's team, they could lose Nick Chubb, they could lose any running back, get someone back in there, and anybody was going to make that team produce.

I love Kevin Stefansky, too. He left. He went to the Titans to work with his son, who's now the head coach of the Titans. So I do think the wise guys are on the Cowboys, but no one's banging the drum being like rushing the counter, I got to get on the Cowboys right now. Okay, this one's painful for me to make. And that's the best kind. I know.

I really want to see the bears flourish, and I think they will. But, God, if the line goes to plus four for the Titans, rookie quarterback, Titans plus the points, you're shaking your head sharp or square. It's totally sharp. And look, it pains me as Chicago in, as someone who loves this team so much and was weepy-eyed.

watching all of the hard-knock stuff, seeing the team walk in and out of Hallis Hallis Hall practicing in Lake Forest, the introductions, making it feel like this is the premier franchise in the NFL because of its history, even though we've only won one Super Bowl. Dude, this hype is just too much. I mean, it's still a team that is not breached 500 in God knows how long. It's still a team with a rookie quarterback. It's now a team where if you want to bet on the Bears season win total, you got to bet that they're going to be over 500, a rookie quarterback in a division that has the Packers, who a lot of people think could go to the Super Bowl, the Lions who a lot of people think should be the number one seed in the NFC this year. Like,

this is a lot. And I know Caleb Williams says, I don't get nervous before games. He should get nervous because this Tennessee team has improved at every single place they need to improve. They've gotten much better in the defensive backfield with Ligerius Sneed. They've gotten better at receiver. They have improved their offensive line, not just in scheme and talent, but with coaching. I worry about the bears in this spot. Way, way, way too much hype and enthusiasm. All right.

We always end with a game that I missed, but also a game that I don't have the courage to bet, but I just want your opinion. Sam Darnold minus points on the road scares me, but God, the Giants are bad. Minnesota minus two. I think I'd swallow the two with Minnesota. Talk me in or out of that game. No, you don't want to swallow the two of Minnesota.

You want to take the Giants. And look, this one is divided. I'm not going to lie to you. Okay, okay. Simon Hunter and I do the favorites podcast on the Volume Podcast Network. We will always do a segment called Sharp Calls, where professional betters who listen to our show on Tuesday will call us on Wednesday

and tell us everything they agree with and everything they disagree with. It is the greatest peanut gallery in the world. When we did our Thursday show, we did the Sharp Call segment, this was the biggest division. Half the group was on the Vikings. Half the group was on the Giants.

I feel like Simon and I are in a bit of a foxhole with this game. I like the Giants. I actually have bet the Vikings 15 to 1 for the worst record. in the NFL this year, their schedule after they play the Giants. Niners, Texans, Packers, Jets, if they don't win against the Giants, they could be winless when we get to the end of October.

So I like the Giants here. There's some really important trends that we actually haven't gotten to yet that I think are really important. Underdogs, between one and five and a half points in week one, since 2018 covered a 64% clip. It's a pretty big sample size of more than 150. games. So, and favorites of one to three and a half points cover only 43% of the time in September.

So we've got pretty good trends when we talk about betting's weeks one, especially as you were discussing when we opened the segment, that show you why you can take advantage and why you want to bet underdogs. This is also a really interesting coach matchup to me, right? Two years ago, these guys are the bell of the ball. And day ball wins coach of the year. Both of these teams are winning games that are less than one-score games, and they're winning them consistently. They play each other in the playoffs. Dayball and Daniel Jones going to Minnesota.

They beat Kirk Cousins and Kevin O'Donnell. And so there's a lot of sentiment that Brian Dayball is a really good coach. And then last year everything falls apart for both of them. So I do think there's a little bit too much hate on the Giants right now and a little bit too much credit on the Vikings. Sam Darnold should not be a road favorite ever. He shouldn't be a road favorite in any scenario. He just shouldn't.

So you got to take the Giants. Okay, finally, a game I missed, I am betting you. It's Colts plus the points. I know it's the Colts plus the point, is it? Of course it is. I knew it. 100%. I love Houston.

I knew it. Yeah, it's 100%. The Colts plus, I think you can get it. I got them plus three. Some places plus three and a half now. This line was two and a half. 48 hours ago. The public is steaming in on the Texans and the wise guys are buying on the calls.

And look, it's a little tricky. Anthony Richardson has basically played like 17 games a quarterback since high school. I know. Right? And then you got the Texans who look like they are all world. But I do want to give some context here. The Texans do not win the AFC South if Trevor Lawrence doesn't get injured. The Colts almost made the playoffs with Gardner Minshu playing the majority of the games last season.

I think Shane Steichen is a genius of a coach. And what he did with Minshu and what he was starting to do with Anthony Richardson is brilliant. And I think the level of play that the Eagles had last year in offense and what you saw from the Colts is a direct correlation. between Shane Steichen being on indie and not being with Philly anymore. I think there's a huge advantage there. Also, to repeat, division underdogs, 37, 15, and one against a spread in week one since 2014, that's 71%. This is a really good spot for the Colts against a overvalued Texans team. I want you to just give my audience something here.

Just entertain me and make my audience smarter. So I think the Rams, the last two years, last year and this year, are undervalued. But their O-line is a bit of a musical chair situation. Sean McVehan Stafford getting three and a half against an average defense feels like stealing money. But I'm really reticent in this spot. I don't like their O line. Hutchison had, according to all the Lion News, they're like, He's now the best defensive rush end in the league.

He's just tearing it up. I look at this line, I think McVeigh, Stafford, plus three and a half, but there's something that tells me, stay away. Educate me. Your instincts are spot on, and this was the hardest game. The other bet that we do on the podcast, it's called our Big Balls, Bed of the Week, and it's the bet we know is hard to make, but you 100% how. have to have the courage to make it.

This week, it is the Detroit Lions minus three and a half over the Los Angeles Rams. And who likes to bet a favorite in any scenario, especially when I've given you all these trends? But here's the thing about these trends, 58%, 61%. What that really means is that, yeah, you're going to have an edge if you bet it long term. What I'm trying to do here is thread the needle and catch a falling knife, where the other 40% of the time, it doesn't work. Right. Right. And so look, I love the Rams. And we have made so much money on the Rams the past couple of years because I do think Matthew Stafford is probably the most,

if it's possible, the most underrated quarterback. He never gets into the conversation of top three, top four, and he should. If there was a great video this fall, this off season, a C.J. Shroud talking about quarterbacks he likes to watch. It was Matthew Stafford. NFL players loving Matthew Stafford. He is a gamer. And what he did last year when Cooper Cup was out and turned Pooka Nukuoka into an all-world receiver, he is brilliant. And I really want to bet the Rams. But here's the problem. And I want to fade the lines because the variance is so high when you're betting on a Dan Campbell team because of the way he goes forward on fourth down, which can always bite you as it did in the NFC title game and when the Niners came back, they are so foundationally good.

And when I bet, and when a lot of professionals bet, they bet from inside out. They look at the offensive line. They look at the defensive line. That's where they start. They don't start on the edges. They don't start with the quarterbacks. They start foundationally. The lines are one of the few teams with top five offensive line, top five defensive line.

Penae-Soul on one side. Then you mentioned Aidan Hutchinson. I bet Ada Hutchinson, like that. 14 to 1 to lead the league in sacks. Everything coming out of camp was how this guy has gotten better and better. And last year, he was dominant. No matter what the situation was, no matter how often he was being double-team, he consistently got pressure on quarterbacks, even if it wasn't always a sack.

So if you look at those things, I'm like, wait a second. Aaron Donald retired. Offensive line for the Rams in trouble. Jared Goff, undefeated against the spread to start the same. season in his career. Jared Goff, 25 and 9 against the spread indoors. Jared Goff, the most profitable quarterback against the spread the past five years. Dan Campbell, the most profitable coach against the spread the past five years. I know, like, it's hard to bet on a more than a field goal favorite in a game that ended as a very short win for the Lions last year in the playoffs.

I think the lines have gotten better. I think the Rams have stagnated or a little bit less, a little bit worse because their talent isn't as good. So it hurts, but I'm on the lines. Sharper Square, all odds provided by draft Kings. The favorites have a $100,000 pick-em contest. And it's free to play, which sounds like a bad business move by you. You should charge people. Colin, listen, we're on the volume podcast network.

We want to engage as many people as possible. And if it's going to cost us money, we don't care. If we look good, you look good, that's what we care about. Anybody can play. And here's what's fun. Me and Simon, we will make our five picks. We enter the contest. We talk about the picks we're going to enter on our show.

People love to compete against us. So you enter five picks every week. You can win, be part of the 100. thousand dollar prize pool favorites that action network.com is the signup and by the way we give away a thousand a week to the person with the best record so we're giving money away all season long in our effort to make the volume podcast network the biggest podcast network in the world go sign up win a hundred brand favorites dot action network dot com yeah the favorites is the absolute best sports gambling pod in the country uh we love having you guys

back and God, I'm going to go buy a jet ski on that Panthers pick. I love. That's my pick of the week. I know. But here's the problem. Here's the problem. Yeah. It might not go our way.

And that's okay. That's okay. Because in the long run, we got to play the fundamentals. And like, it might not work this weekend. Over the long run, it's going to work out. But, man, I am like so invested in this Panthers team. I am so nervous about this game. I'm nervous about the Lions game.

I'm nervous about the Jets game. I'm nervous about the Colts game and the Giants game. I'm sick to my stomach, brother. All right, buddy. Season's back. It is. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.

Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full. full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to

Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam? It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast, Point Game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the

smartest player to ever play the game. His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows. Without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series

because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nass would get that thing.

That man, hell get the fly. line, he running up the court, licking his fingers why he got the ball, like, after you go through a training camp with that Isaiah, you figure it out real quick. Get your ass up and down the court, and you're going to get the ball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart

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at Work and the Ad Council. Now everybody over here? Oh, it's one of my other favorite places. The Twilight Gazebo. Sunset Gardens, Twilight Gazebo. What's next? Dead Man's Grove? Could you please try to be a little bit positive about this?

From Kenya Barris, the visionary creator of Blackish, comes Big Age, an audible original about finding your way in life's next chapter. This audio comedy series follows a retired couple's reluctant relocation to sunset gardens, a Floridian senior community that is anything but relaxing, starring Comedy Legends Jennifer Lewis, Cedric the Entertainer, and Nisi Nashvettes. Through its blend of outrageous comedy, key party anyone, and touching revelations, big age explores what it means to grow older without growing old at heart. Go to audible.com slash big age series to start listening today. What would you eat if you had to start over?

Real simple, poor man's, poor woman's food. Black beans, chicken, rice, plantains. Yeah. That's poor people's food, man. But being Nigerian, that's, come on, a go-to. On the podcast eating while broke, I sit down with celebrities, entrepreneurs, and creators as they revisit the meals they once relied on and the moments that shaped their journey. Named Best Food Podcasts at the 2006 I Heart Podcast Awards,

this show is all about real conversations on money, growth, and what it really takes to make it. It was times where me and Lex were like definitely getting into it because we're not making any money. Like I need to start making money. Like, why are we doing this? But I don't know. I think we just always. knew that we had something really good and eventually people were going to catch on

and so we just thugged it out. The full season is available to binge right now. Listen to Eating While Broke from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. One of the more interesting games this weekend

is Colorado and Dion Sanders and all he brings to the table at Nebraska. Now, Travis Hunter and Shadour Sanders for the Buffaloes are the two best players in the game. And they alone may be able to carry Colorado to the win. But I like Nebraska for a lot of reasons.

Number one is, if you go to last year, nobody lost more close games down the stretch than Nebraska. They were close. They needed a couple transfers. They needed to get a little older on the defensive side. It didn't matter if it was Iowa. It was Maryland. It was Michigan State.

They lost by a field goal. It felt like every week. And they were shooting themselves in the foot with a lot of ugly turnovers. This defense now is different. Six seniors, five junior start. And that matters. A lot of starts against the Colorado offense and offensive line that I haven't loved for the last couple of years.

Again, Colorado's got the two best players in this game. Maybe the three or four best. Depth, experience. I like Nebraska. The other thing is that Colorado has, by and large, last three matchups is one. Nebraska's not overlooking anybody. Also, I tend to look at programs. I think there's baby steps.

I think when you take over a program, first of all, the first sign you're doing it right is you're closing the gap. Nebraska last year, close losses. Generally, those kind of teams the following year start turning those into, close wins. And then the following year, if you have the right coach and the right players, you have decisive wins. I don't think Nebraska is in a decisive win territory yet against the better teams on their

schedule, but I don't think Colorado is one of the better teams on their schedule. I like Nebraska by 10 points. I think their defense, though it won't be a perfect game, a Shadur Sanders, he moves well. I really like him. I mean, I almost feel like if Shadur Sanders, if you're going to judge him just on football, he can be the number one pick in the draft. His ability to place the ball, moving pocket, moving left, moving right, moving forward, he has tremendous ball placement. And he's kind of what everybody's looking for. He can win in the pocket. He can win off script.

So I think Colorado is going to score some points to be a handful. But I think Matt Rule, situationally, is a better coach than Dion. Dion's a bigger present. Dion may be a better recruiter. But, I mean, Nebraska was, I looked it up this morning, top 30 in tackles for lost last season. And now this defense, six seniors, five juniors is even older. They got that new quarterback, Dylan Rayola, they like him. They are more than capable at quarterback. He's not Schindler Sanders, but he's fine. Nebraska at home, more experienced defense.

Matt Rule losing close to now winning close. I'm going to take him by about 8 to 10. points here. A little 33, 24 kind of feels like that to me. I like the Huskers. All right. The game of the day, it's on Fox, is Texas, their first ever meeting in the big against Michigan. It's remarkable to think about two brands that big that have never faced in the big house. Listen, I was a Michigan believer all last year. I mean, Harbaugh on the sidelines or not, they were hammering people. But Michigan lost eight of 11 offensive starters, a star quarterback, a star receiver, a star back, top offensive linemen. And those were also, in many

instances, leaders. So not only do you lose Jim Harbaugh, which I think the cultural vibe of the toughness physicality will remain, even if this coach isn't the right coach. My feeling is, Mark Helferich wasn't the perfect fit for Chip Kelly, but for a year, you couldn't tell the difference. I think there's a lot of momentum, program momentum for Michigan. But they just lost too many leaders and too much firepower on offense. And I think they're a team that will be able to win a certain way. I think Texas can win anyway. Shootout close. They're better at quarterback. Now, they lost three receivers to the NFL. But it's Texas. It's Sark. I don't worry about the offense. I talked to Sark this week. He said it's hard for him

to differentiate, in some instances, starters from backups with Texas. And we tend to rush to a judgment with these high-profile coaches. A Kiffin, a Sark, a Lincoln Riley, a Harbaugh. You can't, this stuff takes two and three years even with big brands to get up to speed so you're in the Ohio State class. You're in the Georgia and Alabama class. This is the first time I look at Texas and think, yeah, they can go toe to toe with anybody. I didn't like him on the back end last year.

Washington exposed that. Michael Pennix exposed that. I think Texas has a chance to play for the national championship. I think they bring back more experience. That offensive line for Texas now, that's some first and second round talent. That's a lot of starts. They may have some new receivers, a new back. That's a lot of starts.

And Quinn Ewers, from diet to his play on the field, is a little bit more structured to me last year than what I saw initially. was not a big fan initially, just played too loose, two J. Cutler to me. I like Texas here. Now, again, I think it's a pretty low-scoring game. I think Michigan has some top defenders, air at home. Even good college teams can struggle away from home. I looked at this morning.

It opened at Texas minus four. It's now Texas minus seven. I think the Longhorns win. I think it's probably pretty close. But I think you'll watch that game. and from a more dynamic offense to the better quarterback. I think you're going to feel like Texas. They may stumble a little early, intimidating, big house.

I think they pull away late. A little bit like how Michigan beat Ohio State last couple years. Physicality leaned on them, late third quarter on. You're going to feel like the better team, the better roster. The better chance of a national championship is Texas. I like the horns here by about six. The volume. Thanks so much for listening.

You've enjoyed the podcast. Take a moment. Rate and review. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the eye heart. Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hart Radio app. Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, I'm Deanna Maria Riva, and on my new podcast, How Hard Can It Be? I call on my Gen X squad from Ohio to Hollywood as we navigate Midlife's most fantastic BS.

Unfiltered conversations from night sweats to futas to scheduling sex. Wait, what sex? Is it just me or does every woman my age want to look at Pinterest instead of having sex sometimes? They say we can't polish a turd, but we're sure going to try. So let's get blunt with love. laughs, tears, or tears of laughter. Listen to How Hard Can It Be with Diana Maria Riva on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Therapy is fantastic.

But once again, it does not have a monopoly on healing. That's why I create the resources and that's why I create the community because I really just want you to have more access. On the podcast, cultivating her space, Dr. Dom and Terry Lomax create a space where black women can show up fully and be heard. It's tough because we're suppressing our emotions and so many of us are like high. achieving individuals. Listen to cultivating her space on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. The story I've told myself can then shape my behavior and that can lead me to sabotage the possibility of connection. This Mental Health Awareness Month, tune into the podcast deeply well with Debbie Brown if you've been searching for a soft place to land

while doing the work to become whole. This podcast is for you. hear more. Listen to deeply well with Debbie Brown from the Black Effect Podcast Network on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.