The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Cowboys-49ers Predictions, Sharp or Square
Episode Date: October 6, 2023Colin Cowherd gives his takes on the Sunday Night Football game between the Dallas Cowboys & San Francisco 49ers. Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, also joins Colin for ...a round of "Sharp or Square", and gives the sharpest advice on how to bet the upcoming NFL slate. Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Hi, everybody, and welcome in.
This is, of course, Friday morning,
which means Chad Millman will show up for Sharp and Square.
I've hit my seven of my last 10, been a little hot.
I don't love the numbers this week.
Last two weeks, I thought the numbers lined up.
I don't have even a strongest play this week.
I do think there's four or five games where I have a feeling about it,
a strong feeling.
But in many instances, you'll find out from Chad Millman.
It's a strong feeling that's not shared.
You know, it's after a really rocky start.
I like where we're at.
We're gaining momentum, but Sharpen Square is coming up in about 10 minutes.
The game of the weekend is the Dallas Cowboys going on a road to the San Francisco 49ers.
San Francisco has got a better roster.
Dallas has a better offensive line, although I don't think it's as dominant as it's been in recent years.
I think Dallas, you know, I think DAC, the assumption and the feeling is it's been in a lot of big games.
so he'll be better than Brock Purdy here.
But there's a lot of areas I really like San Francisco.
I think they have far better weapons.
Brandon and Iukes become a one,
Debo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, George Kiddell,
and Brock Pretty moves pretty well,
certainly better than Groplo.
So I have a coach advantage.
I have a weapons advantage.
And the real difference in the game to me is San Francisco is a tremendous red zone team.
And Dallas isn't.
And one of the reasons Dallas isn't,
Tony Potter's a good back.
He's not a star.
You can shade over, roll your coverage over to CD Lamb.
They're not getting Dalton Schultz production at Tide-in because he's now part of the Houston Texans.
So I just don't think Dallas has that much offensive talent.
They paid for Stefan Gilmore, Michael Parsons.
I think a lot of their better players are on the defensive side.
CD-Lam, I think, is really, really explosive.
But, I mean, I think we've seen this before, is that when you get into the red zone,
you know, teams in the red zone that are very good, Buffalo.
Why?
Josh Allen.
Baltimore. Why? Lamar Jackson. You usually need in a cluttered space a dominating back, a dominating
physical presence. Nobody can defend Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen. DAC is not as mobile as he used to be because
of, you know, lower extremity injuries. They have now one great receiver and that's it. Not a ton of
tight end production. Backs are okay, not special. And the O line is injury riddled, though it
on PFF is ranking better than you'd think.
Look at what Kyle Shanahan has to work with.
The best running back arguably in the league,
Christian McCaffrey,
who's also the best receiving running back in the league,
a top two to three tied end and George Kiddell.
Brandon Ayuk is now a one.
He is a bona fide one.
Debo's Samuel is the ultimate Swiss army knife
in the NFL,
and Shanahan does a better job
at disguising his run plays
than anybody I've ever seen all the coaches.
So I think the game's going to come down
to red zone efficiency,
And I just think San Francisco's got more weapons, a better offensive coach.
And I think, you know, the thing about Mike McCarthy is, you know, Mike McCarthy, we talk about
players that get underdrafted.
Dak was underdrafted.
He was better than a fourth round pick.
Brock Purdy is a seventh round pick was underdrafted.
I think Mike McCarthy has a weakness.
I don't think he's a great situational coach and red zone offenses situational.
But I don't think Mike McCarthy is a bad coach.
I just don't trust him in key spots.
By the way, when Andy Reed was in Philadelphia, that was the knock on Andy Reed.
He wasn't great with a clock.
He wasn't great in certain situations in the red zone.
Well, he had Donovan McNabb.
Now he's got Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelsey and Pacheco.
And he's got better players.
I mean, last year, in the Super Bowl, how good was Philadelphia on those zigzag motion plays?
So they're just, I mean, a reality of the red zone is who's your quarterback?
Who's your tight end?
How many weapons do you have?
and are you a great situational coach?
Sean Payton has usually been very good in the red zone.
Good situational coach.
Kyle Shanahan, Sean McVeigh.
Doesn't mean they're perfect coaches.
So I think the whole in Mike McCarthy's game is situational football.
That's red zone football.
Now, you could get away with it.
Aaron Rogers in your prime.
Probably get away with it more when you had Zeke, the best old line in football.
And Dachan is prime.
But I don't think this is one of those situations.
They've been in the red zone 19 times.
this year, the Cowboys, only seven touchdowns.
I think that's what they're going to be.
I think against good defenses
to very good. I think San Francisco's
very good. They're not great yet.
Steve Wilkes took
over for Demico Ryan's. I don't think the
Niners are a great defense,
situational defense. I just think they have great
talent and great units.
But I think Mike McCarthy's not a bad coach.
But I just don't love him in
matchups like this. I think he's
going to get out coached. And as
you know, I tend to be more of an offensive
coach sportscaster than a defensive coach. These guys are both offensive coaches. This situation,
this game is going to come down to a series of plays around the goal line. And that's why I like
San Francisco. I think the number is right. I think three and a half is the right number. I think it's
24-21, 24-20 San Francisco, but I can't wait to watch it. Here's Chad Millman, Sharper Square.
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Yes.
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Really?
Yeah.
For me, it's one of the most.
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Time for another edition.
A happy edition of Sharper Square, Chad Millman's CCO Action Network, all odds provided by
Draft King.
So not only that I go four and one, two other games I would have bet one.
So it was that rare week outside of the Patriots Cowboys play, Chad, where I was on the right
side of almost every game. I've hit seven out of my last 10 picks out of a dreadful. Let's just say
this. I hit it in the weeds week one. It happens. Okay. Whatever. Listen, you know what you did?
You put on your big boy pants and you rallied. And that's what professionals do. You don't dwell
on the weeds. I'm not a professional. That's you don't dwell on the weeds. You don't dwell on the
bad times. You look for the opportunities. What I will tell you, I don't want to make you feel bad about
this. I went 5-0 last week, and the two games that I didn't choose would have been winners as well.
And so we need to continue to work on listening to Chad to get you over that hump.
I feel like the last two weeks, I was more aggressive telling you to listen.
Well, you also talked me out of the Rams game, which I didn't love, but I don't hold grudges.
It's no big deal.
Did I? I don't even remember what I don't remember what happened in that game.
You know what? You're just like my wife. You forget all the mistakes. I'll remind her of stuff. She's like, I don't remember it. And I'm like, man, that's kind of a shaky. Yeah, I don't know, Colin, I don't know what you're talking about. All I know is what I know. So I don't, I feel last week I had some games I really, really felt strongly about. This week, I have liens. I don't think the numbers are as good, but I have liens. I'll give you a lien I like. Bingles, I saw it at two and a half. Let's say it's minus three. On the,
the road at Arizona. So the word is out. Arizona is pretty sneaky good. Nobody now is going to
Arizona thinking they're getting a W. Okay, they beat the crap out of the Cowboys. So everybody knows,
this is a work trip. Bingles lose ugly, embarrassing, huge urgency. And now Burrow appears to be
as healthy as he's been. Very rarely are you going to get a Joe Burrow against a backup?
up. And all I got to give up two and a half to three points. Arizona is sneaky good,
but now everybody knows it. You don't have a locker room here who's like, it's Arizona.
They got to win this football game. Like Baltimore's winning. They have to win this football game.
Cleveland's good. Cincinnati minus three on the road. I think it's a sharp, sharper square.
It was, it, no, it's not. If it's a two and a half, I think you're going to get some support.
But the reason it's gotten to two and a half, Colin, is because,
The wise guys keep coming in on Arizona, right?
So this game opened on Sunday night at Arizona plus six within the first hour from
730 to 830 on Sunday night, Eastern time.
It moved from six to five and a half to five.
By the next day, it was at four and a half.
And then by the middle of the week, it was at three.
Right.
So now all of a sudden it's Thursday and you're starting to see two and a half.
What's that telling you is that the wise guys are continuing to bet on Arizona.
and there's a couple of reasons why.
Number one, Arizona is just a better team than people expect it.
And I think you're seeing this with both Arizona and the Colts and with Philadelphia,
in that the Eagles, they're still great because they have incredible players and Nick Sirian is a really good coach.
But they're struggling with new coordinators because the coordinators they have were so good last year.
And now those guys are running the Colts and the Cardinals.
And those teams are both overperforming.
Cardinals 16th in DVOA, which you don't have to look it up,
It's just a fancy way of taking every metric that exists in football competitively and putting it in a one.
And it basically says the Cardinals at 16, the Bengals at 26.
I feel like after four games, you might say Joe Burrow is healthy.
Joe Burrow can't throw the ball downfield right now.
And I think you have enough of a sample size to say, okay, this isn't just a quirk that needs a tweak.
This is an issue that they need to get over.
And I don't think it gets solved in a week between games.
they need a buy week to sort of get everybody healthy and on the same page again.
All right, I like the Steelers plus four and a half at home against the Ravens.
Ravens are a little overvalued because they beat a backup quarterback, a backup quarterback who's
not very good, wasn't great even in college, but had a nice preseason where nobody plays,
no starters play anymore.
The Steelers were humiliated.
Go look at Tomlin after humiliation or ugly wins.
Go look at good foundational programs after ugly wins.
Four and a half is outrageous.
It should be a field goal at Max game, maybe less.
Sharper square, Steelers plus four and a half at home.
Sharp as a knife, my friend.
And I had to put on my glasses because I have so many stats to tell you about why this is a sharp play.
It is frightening.
Just about Tomlin, right?
55, 31, and 4 against the spread as an underdog, the most profitable coach as an underdog the past 20 years.
As a home dog, 17, 5, and 3, a dog in the AFC North, 22, 8, and 2.
Now let's talk about this series, right?
The underdog in this series, when the line is three and more since, three or more since 2005,
when Tomlin became head coach, the underdog is 21, 3, and 3.
The underdog has covered 11 straight in this rivalry.
The underdog is 15-1-1 against the spread in this rivalry since 2015.
So I'm telling you right now, the Steelers are the right side here.
It's a little bit scarier.
And also, there's a whole boatload of data that will tell you Lamar Jackson as an underdog
is just significantly better than he is as a favorite.
We've seen it the past two weeks, right?
Like what they did against the Colts and then what they did last week.
He was an underdog last week.
He was the favorite the week before.
They play different.
They act different.
He is a favorite this week on the road.
The wise guys like it.
They liked it at four and a half.
They liked it at four.
Got that down to three.
Then it went back up because the public came in.
on Baltimore. Why is guys like this play?
I like Jets plus two and a half at Denver, and here's why.
Chicago's defense is not great.
I do think Russell Wilson and Sean Payton have become, they've kind of solved.
They are what they are.
There's not a lot of juice to it.
But the numbers tell you he's back to being a B quarterback.
He doesn't have the juice that made him an A-A-A-minus quarterback, but he's moving the chains.
This defense is awful.
I mean, Chicago marched.
Chicago can't move the ball against anybody.
Marched.
So the Jets, I don't think Kansas City was an outlier.
I think they're really, really good defensively.
And I think Robert Sala is such a passionate person that he can, that game is an easy game to sell.
Sean Payton told me something once, and I've never forgotten this.
The best, you know, the best weeks are when you, it's easier to coach players when they lose.
They listen.
the perfect week is when they play like crap and win.
So the Jets didn't.
But they played really well and lost.
And in that locker room, it means something.
I think Denver is going to struggle offensively.
And I think the run game, and you can run against Denver, is something here.
Like I think Kansas City's defense, this is the best Mahalms ever had.
They move the ball.
They move the ball.
The difference in that game was a seven and a half minute drive that Kansas City took the
all away. It was the defense that let the Jets down. I cannot give Denver points against arguably
a top five or six defense. I'm taking the, I know, it's crazy, Jack Wilson. I'm going to take
the Jets plus two and a half, sharper square. So it's a little bit square. Look, I don't think it's crazy.
I took the Jets and Zach Wilson as 10-point underdogs last week against Kansas City, right?
Like there are times where you're going to take a really big favorite. I think with this number
and what you've seen is the wise guys, the money is coming in on Denver.
This line, the public bet this line down from Denver minus two to Denver minus one and a half.
And when it got to one and a half today, Colin, it got bet back up immediately.
And the money on Denver was so strong, it went all the way from one and a half to two to two and a half.
I think everybody agrees with you as wise guys.
They're thinking, all right, Russell Wilson isn't the problem on this team right now.
The problem on this team is the defense.
So they're making a bet that this defense can perform a little bit better against Zach Wilson,
who was so overperformed last week that you're never going to get higher value on Zach Wilson and the Jets than you are right now.
So they're betting against the value of Zach Wilson.
An interesting game, I would have taken the Patriots.
The number wouldn't have been the same.
I would have taken the Patriots minus one and a half.
had the Saints lost, but had the Saints won.
But the Saints looked awful.
And it's like, okay, the Saints have better personnel, some really interesting
offensive skill people, the better quarterback in this game, and they're getting points.
Listen, when New England goes back and acquires J.C. Jackson, they couldn't get him out
of town fast enough.
This is a desperate team.
Their number one pass rushers got.
Their number one corner is gone.
New Orleans, again, had they won, I could see if there's a division game.
New Orleans, I don't know if they'll play that bad the rest of the season.
I think they'll be engaged.
They have a coaching deficit, but almost a credit across the board on everything,
I'm going to take the Saints plus one and a half sharper square.
Totally sharp.
In fact, the sharps have been coming in in this game so much.
The lines moving in the Saints direction.
They're going to be favorites if they aren't already in a lot of different places.
And a lot of what you said is why it's a lot of guys would have bet on the Patriots
if Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez, the defensive lineman and the cornerback for the Patriots,
were not out because they feel like Bill Belichick is such a good defensive play caller
and schemer that he would figure out how to do something with a hampered New Orleans Saints
team in a heavyweight outsized coaching mismatch, right?
Like, Dennis Allen cannot stand the coach on the same field as Bill Belichick, right?
So that was why they were leaning to the Patriots.
But with these guys out and the fact that Mack Jones is just terrible.
Like he has not looked good in any capacity, in any situation.
And I think the wise guys are only in the year were giving him a little bit of the benefit of the doubt.
I was.
I was.
Everybody was, right?
Like he was playing in a monsoon.
He was playing against great defenses.
But look, he just can't make the plays.
and you're seeing that week after week after week now.
And so I think the wise guys, the bloom is off the rows a little bit
for sort of thinking that Bill O'Brien was going to be able to do something with Mac Jones.
And so they've come in on the same is pretty heavy.
You know I like underdogs.
I'm going to throw a couple favorites at you.
I like Philly minus four against the Rams.
I don't know how they block them.
I also think Matt Stafford's beat up.
I think the Cooper Cup news is overvalued.
Because the truth is he's coming to practice.
There's no timing at all.
The Rams are right now a better story than a team.
McVeas having a wonderful year coaching.
They gave the Cincinnati game away.
But there were signs in Philadelphia.
Greg Kosell talked about it on my show this week.
You can see stuff clicking.
They lost Shane Steichen.
There were times when I watched that game and thought, okay, they look like Philadelphia.
This is a better team, significantly better.
O and D-line play.
It's going to be a home game for Philadelphia, 65-35 crowd.
Four is one of those numbers when I see it.
I'm a sucker for the four.
That's when I take favorites.
Philly is a significantly, not only better, Chad, a veteran older roster.
They got a lot of dudes.
There's a lot of Hall of Famers.
Rams defense is Aaron Donald and Children.
I think Jalen Hertz is a tough assignment.
I'm going to take Philly minus four sharper square.
It's pretty sharp.
And it's getting, it's sharp at four.
The wise guys were on the Rams at five and a half.
They were on the Rams at five, on the Rams at four and a half.
At four, you're starting to see money coming in on Philadelphia.
And your analysis is spot on.
I had this conversation with my BFF, Simon Hunter, today.
And we're talking about this game and why people like betting the Rams at four and a half, right?
They're undefeated against the spread.
Matthew Stafford has been playing in.
incredibly well, even without Cooper Cup.
You've found some talent in Nakuwa and Kairn Williams.
The defense has been good.
Aaron Donald's has been rejuvenated, right?
And McVeigh has been coaching a great game.
I've been coaching great all season,
except for that one game against the Bengals.
My retort to that was the Eagles to me feel like the mid-2000s Patriots,
where they're so talented at every level, they can be undefeated while working stuff out.
And they are so confident and not overconfident or brashway, but confident in their
ability to win the games they need to win, that covering the four to me feels like you're
getting value on the Eagles at this number because of how good they are.
And I agree with you.
Like what we've started to see from them, Jalen Hurts has become a little more comfortable
with the new offensive coordinator.
They've opened the offense up a little bit more.
I think the one thing that Wise guys are worried about right now
is the fact that the Eagle secondary is pretty banged up,
and Matthew Stafford has been a bit of a heater.
So I think that's why the number moved.
At four, you're going to see that point of resistance
where Wise guys will probably be on your side.
All right. Packers Raiders, I don't love favorites,
but it's a small number minus one and a half Green Bay.
extra time to prepare. Raiders got beat up against the Chargers. Their offensive line was literally
completely overwhelmed. It's banged up. I think they're going to play a backup. If not, Garapolo
will have not practiced more than a single day. I actually think Detroit is one of the most
underrated teams in the league. So when you get dominated by Detroit, my takeaway is Aaron Rogers
last year was dominated by Detroit. They think really, really good. So I don't think Green Bay is as bad as we
think extra time, very good coach. I think I take the Packers minus one and a half. I think the Raiders
off that charger emotional. That's a big rivalry game that nobody appreciates out east. The Chargers
and Raiders have been wild games in the last several years. They're wildly emotional. The crowd,
I'm going to take Green Bay minus one and a half sharper square. Last several years, Colin,
last several decades, they've been in these wild, crazy games. You have to have to be in these wild,
It's the best rivalry in the NFL that nobody talks about.
Dude, you and I are old enough to remember like Dick Enberg in the late afternoon game on Sundays from, you know, Oakland Alameda Coliseum or Jack Murphy Stadium where these two teams were lighting it up and trying to kill each other during the 80s.
Like it's a great, great rivalry.
You're kind of wrong on this.
The wise guys have been all over the Raiders.
So much so that the line is actually moving far in their direction.
They'll be favorites by the time.
this game kicks off if they aren't already depending on where you're looking, right?
So last week, they play the Chargers.
They actually outplay the Chargers in the game.
Like they gave the Chargers multiple short fields.
Aiden O'Connell, I thought he looked really good.
Unfortunately, he played like a rookie, right?
He held the ball too long, didn't get rid of it downfield, had many fumbles, made that
really bad interception.
When they were about to tie it on the Chargers three yard line, and he made a bad play,
He just had, it was a miscommunication between him and his receiver.
The receiver didn't go all the way out.
And he threw it to the corner of the goal line.
And the guy, the Chargers intercepted it.
And he sat down, right?
And so they had every chance to win that game, even with all the mistakes.
So they were in that game.
And look, the Packers, there's been a lot of love for Jordan Love.
And appropriately so, because they played well early in the year.
But I think the last two weeks, he's been a little bit exposed.
and wise guys are pulling back a little bit.
Like if you're talking about quarterbacks
who are starting for the first time,
people are much more excited about C.J. Stroud.
They're much more excited about Anthony Richardson.
They are less and less excited about Jordan Love,
whose completion percentage is not very good.
He's made some good throws,
and he's shown the willingness to make throws,
but he hasn't been accurate.
So going on the road as a favorite is not a place
where the wise guys are going to put their money.
I'm going to go back.
So I don't love favorites.
We always play a game.
There's a game I ask you that you can talk me into, which you usually do.
Last week it was Titans Bengals.
You talk me into it.
I put it on Friday morning into the Blazing Five, the latest I've ever put a game into the Blazing Five an hour before Blazing Five.
And it was a big winner.
So let's pivot to that.
The game I'm going to ask you about Jacksonville Buffalo, so I don't like favorites.
I'm worried that Buffalo beating a rival bad.
sadly comes a little bit back down to earth.
Jaguars are very comfortable in London.
They've played their, this will be the 11th of the 12th time, maybe the 11th.
Favorites usually win this game.
In fact, I think they're 22 and 9.
Yep.
Jacksonville can keep it close.
I did think against Atlanta from the very early stages of the game.
They had a plan.
They executed it.
That was a big game for Atlanta.
I think I would take the points.
with Jacksonville off a Buffalo dominating home win?
This is the game I'm going to ask you about.
Did I, where would you lean?
Talk me into it.
I would lean, Jax, because of some of the things you said.
I will tell you, in all the conversations that we've had this week,
and every analyst I've spoken to, everything I've read,
nobody's really interested in this game.
Okay.
It feels like, yeah, you should take the Jags, but Buffalo is also playing at such an elite
level.
And the Jags really haven't played at an elite level.
That game against the Falcons, if you played that game a hundred other times, you would need
everything to go exactly the way it went for the Jaguars to win that game.
The Falcons actually played really well.
And we've talked about this on the show before.
We do this thing called the Luck Rankings.
this was the number one game in terms of discrepancy between good luck and bad luck in week four,
meaning the Falcons easily could have won that game,
if not for a couple of really bad circumstances that always regress, right?
So the Jags have not been a very good team this year.
So a lot of wise guys are sort of taking a pass on this one.
London also makes it a little bit of a different circumstance.
You're kind of playing a funky number.
You're not getting a seven that you might get if the bills are playing at home.
You're not getting like a plus four if you had the Jags at home.
So it's kind of a no man's land that no one's really interested, to be honest.
All right.
Now we do the part of the game where it's usually an ugly game.
You know aesthetically, I like beauty.
I'm surrounded by it.
I just love it.
So talk me in.
What did I miss?
I'm going to guess this.
Can I guess?
Sure, of course.
Everybody's trying to talk me into Atlanta this week.
I've lost more money.
I lost as much money on the Falcons the last decade
as Tom Brady lost on Bitcoin and NFT.
The Falcons are my
They're my whole.
They're my whole.
I have lost.
So I just avoid the Falcons.
Everybody loves them this week.
Is that your game?
Yes.
God, I knew it.
Totally my game.
The Falcons are my jam.
man. I don't want to bet on them either. There have been times this year where I bet on them and then I'd
wake up Monday morning. I'm like, why did I bet on the Falcons? What compelled me to pursue that
choice in life? But Arthur Smith, I think, is a great coach. And I think what happens with the wise
guys, they love his run scheme. It is so interesting. And the truth is, I do this thing every week
where we do a film room, right? And I'll break down a play with Simon Hunter that we'll
we think is going to influence our bet.
And it just so happens that this week, the play that I chose was a running play, two different
running plays that the Falcons use running to the right because their right side of the
offensive line is as dominant as any right side in the NFL.
They have the fourth highest success rate running to the right.
Their center, Drew Dalman is grading out as one of the best centers in the league.
Their right guard, Chris Lindstrom, is grading
out as the best guard in the league.
They are Caleb McGarry, their right tackle,
grading out as one of the best run blockers in the league.
And you could see it, not last week where they were playing from behind
almost from the beginning, but against the Packers the week before,
they were just road grading people, running Bijon outside and running Tyler Algiers
inside.
And as much as we love what C.J. Stroud has been doing.
And he will, you know, he's on the path to being rookie of the year, offensive
rookie of the year, the Texans don't have anybody who can stop the Falcons run game. They just
are not built for that. So you give me the Falcons as very short home favorites with that running
game. And a Texan's team that I think is overvalued right now because of what they did last
week and how competitive C.J. Stroud has been, I got to do it. I got to pull the trigger.
Colin, I don't want to do it either. I love beauty too. But I will tell you, there is beauty in this
run game that is unlike a lot of things that we've seen in the NFL because we're a very
pass-happy bunch.
All right, buddy, Chad Millman, all odds provided by Draft Kings.
He's the CCO of Action Network.
Good talking to you.
Good to you, my friend.
Good luck to us all this weekend.
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