The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Derek Carr Market, Post-Lakers LeBron + ‘Sharp or Square’ NFL Week 17

Episode Date: December 31, 2022

First, (3:00)Colin explains which superstar LeBron should team up with if he leaves the Lakers, why Derek Carr will be in demand on the open market despite his Raiders benching, and how NIL outrage and the drastic shift in public opinion about top prospects skipping bowl games is related. Then the Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 17 picks are "sharp" or "square". They look at Jets/Seahawks (11:00), Vikings/Packers (14:00), Dolphins/Patriots (16:00), Niners/Raiders (22:00), Bills/Bengals (24:00), Browns/Commanders (27:00), and Broncos/Chiefs (30:00). Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates, and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! #Herd #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Same game parlayers are my favorite. Just use the promo code Colin and download the Fanduil app today. Hi, everybody. It's been a festive holiday week. I've been with my kids for most of it. So we are dropping our sharp or square segment with Chad Millman a day later. Let me give you about 15 minutes of rants before I get to Millman, sharper square for our bets of the week. I am, of course, always the square. So I saw, as I was off a couple days this week, LeBron James saying, and this is LeBron, always the manipulator. I don't think he wants to leave Los Angeles.

His family loves it here. He loves it here. Business is great here. But he said publicly, hey, I'm a winner. I don't want to spend the last couple years of my career not being on a winning franchise. Time out. The previous five years before LeBron. James came to the Los Angeles Lakers.

They were tied with the Knicks for the worst winning percentage in the league. In 2015, 2016, they had 17 wins. He chose Los Angeles to get rich. And I defend him on that. And there are places I would love to see the Lakers move him at the end of the year. Now, LeBron's contract, he's not tradable this year. I know. Strange as it is, he's not.

I think he's a perfect fit with Luca Donchich, who has an unbelievably high usage rate. That, like James Hardin, will wear him down in the postseason. He's a one-man offense. Those kind of offenses do not succeed in the playoffs. And Luca is too ball dominant, two usage dominant. He needs somebody to create open, easier shots. LeBron is perfect. But next year, LeBron's a year older.

I doubt Dallas is giving the Lakers a lot in return, although I still contend LeBron on his healthy good nights with energy is a top four or five player in the NBA. But LeBron made all these choices. He chose A.D. He chose Westbrook. He signed an extension. Patrick Beverly, that feels very much like a LeBron asking the Lakers to get Patrick Beverly move, an NBA vet who. who's feisty. So LeBron will say things. What he's trying to probably do is force the Lakers hand into giving up those draft picks and getting more help. But remember, this is what LeBron does. He comes to a franchise, won't play with young guys. You have to go give your draft capital

to get veteran players, get up against the caper over it. Then when LeBron leaves, you're effed, you're screwed, you're trapped. So the Lakers have seen that. It happened in Miami. It happened in Cleveland. They don't want to become the heat or the calves, although both are in much better situations than the Lakers today. Derek Carr. So the Raiders decide to sit him to keep him healthy before they trade him.

A little bit of outrage by many people. But Carr's contract allows him $40 million in guaranteed injury money if he got dinged up. So the Raiders don't want to write that check. They want to keep him healthy. they'll put him on the market. We can go back and argue about how valuable or how talented Derek Carr is. I think he's a top 12 quarterback, probably 11 or 12, in that Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott area. But here's the real deciding factor. It doesn't matter what you do for a living. You could be a lawyer, you could be a teacher, you could be a quarterback, you could be a talk show host. How many people bid on you make an offer to you when you're on the market?

You know, for years and years, I watched a lot of people go online and this is what the internet sadly has become and criticize Joe Buck. Joe Buck's this, Joe Buck's that. I work with Joe Buck, most talented former teammate I've ever had. Most talented teammate I ever had. The minute he was a available to the market, ESPN spent a fortune to bring him and Troy Aikman over. It doesn't matter what the critics think. It doesn't matter what bots think or anonymous trolls. The minute Joe Buck was on the open market, he fetched over $15 million a year, and ESPN rebuilt their entire Monday Night Football production around him.

When Derek Carr goes to the market, Washington, the Jets, maybe the Texans. There's several. Tampa Bay, if Tom Brady bolts, which I think he will, Miami. If they decide they want a healthier version of Tua, Derek Carr is almost always available. Increasingly, Tua is not. There'll be at least a half a dozen teams,

including the Colts, the Seahawks, that will absolutely make a bid or an offer to get Derek Carr. Regardless of what you and I think of his talent, judge somebody by the offers they fetch when they are available to everybody. So I was watching the Huskies, the well-coached Washington Huskies, beat Texas in the Alamo Bowl. And I grew up in the Pacific Northwest and am a Pac-12 fan. so I like watching some of these random bowl games with Pack 12 teams in them. So Bejohn Robinson, the star running back, best college running back, decided not to play.

And nobody really had a problem with it. And I went back and I remember Christian McCaffrey and Leonard Fernette six years ago. Neither playing in the national title game opted out of their final college game. Mark Ricked, Miami coach, quote, It's sad. Even Kirk Herb Street. Disturbing trend. These are reasonable smart people.

There's many more I could read. Those are two of the bigger names. People didn't like it at all. It became a topic, a narrative, a tipping point. And yet Bejohn Robinson, as good as either to me and potentially a better pro than both, decides to sit out as mostly crickets. Why? I've come to realize that there are certain people, and maybe it's a majority of the people that are really reluctant to change. They're creatures of habit.

And change is inevitable, not to sound like a therapist, but that's where all the growth comes from when we're uncomfortable. This is why when people react to NIL or the transfer portal, I keep saying, chill out. It's all going to be okay. Bejohn Robinson, star running back, should not play in the Alamo Bowl. 20 carries, 20 hits. Why would you risk possibly $50 to $75 million, $100 million of career earnings for the Alamo Bowl? Transfer Portal, NIL, sitting out bowl games. It's okay.

These are young business people. They're leaving college. It's their first job. As long as they're not playing for the national championship, I don't have any problem with it. That would feel a little selfish. A little. But in this case, in most cases, I get it.

All right, it's time for Sharper Square, where I lean on Chad Millman's CCO Action Network to help me figure out and decipher good bets from bad bets. I mean, all bets are good bets. They're fun. And I'll provide it by handle. I mean, they make games fun. I'm betting on stupid bowl games.

Of course, they're fun. I always give you three or four. I really like and then you guide me through it. Then I ask you for advice in a game I want to bet. You often talk me into it. And then I ask you, what did I miss? So let's start with a couple I like. I like the Jets as a slight favorite against Seattle.

Seattle is reeling. They're not running the football. When any quarterback, the last two years, not name Zach Wilson takes the helm for the Jets, they pass for over 310 yards a game. I think this is a really, really interesting roster. I think Mike White is capable. I'm going to take the Jets minus one and a half sharper square. Well, it's sharp. It's so sharp that the line has moved from one and a half to two and a half because the wise guy money has been coming in at this point in a year, when you're handicapping games and trying to think about individual teams, you're trying to figure out

is the team that we've been watching for the past six, seven weeks, good if they're playing well, terrible if they're playing badly, or is there going to be some kind of regression, right? as betters, we're always trying to ride the wave and predict regression, a team going to be, you know, better than it's been playing or worse than it's been playing. I think wise guys right now feel like what you're seeing with the Seahawks, the past four or five weeks, inability to run the ball, defense can't stop anybody, Geno Smith being exposed for being, for the reasons why he's been a backup for seven years. The Jets, meanwhile, are a team that continues to play well because they've got a top five defense.

And they're top five like front line, linebacker, secondary. And the only reason why they can't compete in some games is because of Zach Wilson. And it's a testament. It's really about how bad Zach Wilson is that you get Mike White in there and people are like, this is a Super Bowl contending team. Right. And in reality, it's Mike White, who's still. Mike White, he's just so much better because he can actually complete a pass. So you're on the right

side. It's an interesting game to handicap just because of the Seahawks troubles, but the wise guys like the Jets. So speaking of growth and throughout the season, I never thought Christian Watson would matter in a pick. But if he does not play, Green Bay is a completely BB gun offense. And I like Minnesota plus three. If he does play, it's probably a push. But he's become a wildly important part really the only part to their vertical passing game. He's a 50-50. I'm going to take Minnesota plus three here, Sharper Square. Totally. It's interesting.

You know, we do that sharp call segment on the favorites. Me and Simon Hunter Professional Better. So I'll explain it for people who don't listen to this segment every week. We'll do two podcasts a week. On Tuesday, we talk about the games we like. On Thursday, by Thursday, we have gotten calls from other professional betters. in the community telling us what they think of the games we're talking about. And sometimes they're affirming our decisions. Sometimes they're against our decisions. There were two games that popped this

week. I think we're going to talk about both of them. This is one of them. Completely split. Some wise guys love the Packers. Some guys liked the Vikings at three and a half because they were getting the hook and we saw that line move. It was at three and a half. It went down to three. So I feel there's not a consensus here. If you like the Packers, you're probably on the right side with some professional betters. I think what people are thinking is it's a little bit about that wave. The Packers have been ascending. And because of Christian Watson, because their offense has been playing much better with Aaron Rogers

and sort of understanding what those receivers can do, they've been getting a little bit healthier on offense. They've got a very good defensive secondary. And I think like the biggest difference here with the Vikings is their luckiness has been factored into the line. And that's why if it's at three, the wise guys don't like it at three and a half they do. I will tell you, we've talked about this in the past. We've got this metric called the luck rankings at Action Network that basically is able to quantify regression. And the differentials and luck rankings between the two teams, when it's 16 or more, the team that is less lucky covers 62% of the time. This is the biggest luck differential of the week.

And it's in favor of the Packers. So I think that's giving some of us a little bit of pause for going all in on the Vikings. By the way, you mentioned betting is fun. This is when betting is hard. When you have Christian Watson over 50 and a half receiving yards, and he gets 49 in the first half, and on the last catch of the first half that he makes, he's knocked out of the game.

That's when you're standing in front of the TV and you're like, I don't see him on the field when the Packers have the ball to start the series in the second half. This is terrible. Yeah, happens all the time. So since week seven, if you've watched Patriot games, they have no offense. The play calling, no vertical element.

they now turn it over more, protections hit and miss. I still like Miami's personnel. And Tua won't play, but Bridgewater's a reasonable facsimile. I'm going to take two and a half points. It just feels like the right side. They match up very well.

They've got more juice. I saw them play at Buffalo and outplay the bills. I take Miami plus the point, sharper square. Yeah, that's totally sharp. And what's really interesting here, and I imagine we'll talk about this with another game. QBs are obviously the most important factor against the spread.

And if you're one of the top tier of QBs, you're anywhere worth seven points to 10 points against the spread. Tom Brady at his peak, Aaron Rogers at his peak, was considered to be seven to 10 points against the spread. And it quantifies two things. It quantifies how good you are as a quarterback, but also the delta between you and your backup. And I think what you're seeing here is the market responding to Teddy Bridgewater playing.

Teddy Bridgewater, and I'm not exaggerating here, greatest against the spread record of any quarterback the past 20 years. So there's going to be a sentiment that the dolphins are still going to be the side you want to take. It's why this line has been sitting at two and a half and it hasn't moved to three. Part of it is because nobody's got any faith in the Patriots offense. And part of it is because they know that Teddy Bridgewater can come in and do a lot of the things that they need him to do to keep the game. close. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced

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stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th.

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this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford Show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Football season's underway. Now is the perfect time to download Fandul, America's number one sports book. Right now, new customers get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000.

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Gambling problem, 1-800 next step or text next step to 5334-2-Arizona, 188-8-9-7-77-or-1-7-7-7-7-8-G or visit Fand-G or visit Fandul dot com slash RG and Colorado, Indiana, and Virginia. 1877-7-70-stop in Louisiana.

1-800-270-1-1-1-7-1-1-7-1-1-7-H-E-NY or text H-O-P-E-N-Y-46-7-369 in New York, Tennessee. Redline, 1-800-89-9-7-8-9 Tennessee. Visit 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia. So, Josh McDaniels is a very good play caller and I think play designer. But his opinion on quarterbacks is interesting. At one point, Belichick was ready to move off Brady for Garoppolo. Obviously, Bill went to McDaniel for his opinion.

probably emboldened in power because Bill was over Tommy and McDaniel like Garoppolo. We know he's now limited. Josh McDaniel also loved Tim Tebow. Nobody else in the world did as a first round pick. Josh McDaniel likes Jared Stidham, who has a 52% completion percentage in his career. In the preseason was at 62, but it's deceiving because we live in an era now last two years. no starters play in the preseason. It is mostly second, third teamers and scout teamers.

That's a bad percentage. I'm going to take San Francisco minus nine and a half. It makes me sick. I don't know how the Raiders move the ball. I don't understand it. Battle line. Stidham's not mobile. I don't get it.

I'm taking the Niners. Sharper Square. You hit on something really interesting. It's a square play, but you hit on something really interesting, which is people, who have had success in whatever capacity in which they need to coach somebody up, could be a media executive, which you are now, which I have been for a while, could be an NFL coach, could be an NBA coach. You see something in someone once. You see it in practice. You see them execute well.

You see them write a line that you love. You hear a segment of theirs on a podcast or on a radio show. And you're like, that person's got it. And you will believe. in that long past the time when they've proven they don't have it. And it's very possible that in these instances, Josh McDaniel just believes I'm so good at what I do, I can intuit, I can impart all of that information into the person who can be robotic. If they just do what I tell them to do, it's going to be perfect. So I was talking about the delta against the spread value for quarterbacks. Before the season began, we ranked all this at Action Network. The delta between Derek Carr and Jared Stidham was about six points. So let's say you downgrade Carr because he's

underperformed a little bit this year. So let's say it's four points, right? So then that's how you get from five and a half, which is what this line was in favor of the Niners before the news about Derek Carr to nine and a half. So I will tell you right now, when it got to nine and a half, professional betters, start a bet on the Raiders. And you can see in some places, not everywhere, but in some places, this line has moved to nine. Like, you always say you don't want to bet games like this. I'd probably have to take the Raiders here, but I'd hold my nose. And then I think there's better options on the board. Finally, Bengals at home, probably one of the three biggest football games in Cincinnati in a decade. They're the more efficient team. They have the best

protection for their quarterback, the more consistent run game. What concerns me about Buffalo, they bail on the run, their protection spotty. As Greg Kossel told me this week, Josh Allen's taking off now sooner than he has to, and they're very prone to mistakes in key red zone situations. I think Cincinnati is the best team in the league, and I'm going to take him at home plus one and a half. Not that I'm a seller on Buffalo. This is a playoff level intensity. This crowd, this moment, Cincinnati, Monday night football, nobody puts Cincinnati on Monday night football. I think it's going to be an overwhelming presence and I'm going to take the team, I think, will make fewer mistakes in potentially a shootout. I said at the beginning of this segment,

we were going to refer back to a couple of different ideas, right? One was against the spread value for quarterbacks, the other was sharp calls. This was the second most called about game. And it was pretty unanimous. The wise guys were on Buffalo. And it's pretty interesting. I think there's a couple different things in play here. One, the Bengals are without their best offensive linemen, which is a really big deal. As good as Joe Burrow is against the blitz, against pass rush pressure, they're still down their best offensive lineman. We saw last week, and you and I talked about this, the defensive line has been the key to the resurgence for the Bengals the past, say, six, seven, eight weeks. They're a little bit banged up, in fact, significantly banged up on the

defensive line. That plays to the strength of the bills. It might allow Josh Allen to have a little bit more time, but also is going to leave gaping holes for him to do what he really does best, which is finding open lanes in which to run. And I also think the bills have not played great this year, but you've seen them dominate late in the game, not because the other teams are making mistakes. They're dominating late at the game against really scrappy teams. They did it against the Browns who were staying close. They did it against the bears who were staying close. They did eke out that win against the dolphins in really weird circumstances. They did eke out that win against the lions on Thanksgiving in really weird circumstances. So to me, the Bengals

are often winning because the other teams are making so many mistakes, right? We saw it with the box four turnovers. They come back from 17 down. We saw it last week. You talk about betting isn't any fun. I love the Patriots at three and a half. They lose by four. They miss two extra points. They fumble the ball in the five-yard line with a chance to go ahead with a minute left, right? So the Bengals aren't winning because they're dominating. The Bengals are winning because other teams are making mistakes. The bills are winning because they're playing the best at the end of the game. All right. Now I go to the What Would You Do game that I strong considered Browns at the

commanders Cleveland getting points. I refuse to watch the Browns because of their quarterback and the egregious claims against him by 24, 25 women. I'm just turned off completely by that franchise. But as a number

against the commanders, I do think Taylor Heineke, we've got a lot of film and there's real limitations. And I think Deshaun Watson, who I was never a huge fan of as a pure passer. It's got a little more to work with here. I just feel like Cleveland's the better team. They'll win this game. It feels like a sharp play. What would you do on this? I didn't include

it, but what would you do? I would play the Browns. I'm still debating it. Sometimes a lot of times when I'm thinking about the games that I want to play and I've got a list of games that I'm considering, I'm waiting to see which way the market goes and if I can get a better number. So right now, the Browns, they're a plus two and a half. The wise guys like the Browns. I was kind of hoping to get it at three. It's actually moving in the other direction. So you're seeing the wise guys coming in on the Browns right now. I think there's a lot of sentiment that just agrees with you. There's a little bit too much weaponry for what Deshaun Watson can do. They're banking on, literally banking on him getting a little bit better. But there's also a lot of research and a lot of data. And this applies to a few

games this week, of which I'd love to try to convince you, when you were a team that is out of contention, playing a team that has an opportunity, you back the team that is out of contention. It's not what people would normally expect. And I think that's why you end up getting the point spread value in a game like Cleveland is because there is a lot, a lot of precedent for backing the team that's out of contention. Finally, what did I miss, Chad Millman Action Network? Oh, my God. Where to begin?

Do we want to talk about the Bears plus six? Do we want to talk about the Colts plus five and a half? Oh, got a. Oh, I can't. 12 and a half against the Kansas City Chiefs. Ah. That's not even a corner TV game. That is a corner at the neighbor's house.

I can see it through the window game. I can't watch Denver. games. I just is so discouraging. Look, look, I think I am going to bet the Broncos. It's one of those games where I'm kind of just hoping it's a 12 and a half right now. It might end up being one of my biggest bets of the week. And I'm honestly just going to wait until Sunday, late afternoon, late, early games are ending. People are feeling flush. They go in and they pound the Chiefs and this line gets back up to 13 or even higher.

You know, like in the afternoon, they call that chasing a little bit. You get a lot of chasing on Sunday night games. People won or they lost. They're trying to win back some money. They do it on Sunday night. They do it on Monday night. They do it on the afternoon games too. So, look, I've just said over the past 32 years, Colin, 32 years, eliminated teams in the final

two weeks of the season playing teams that are much, much better than them. So huge sort of win deferentials, they're covering it a 62% clip. Okay? Let me give you some more. And this, I'll make it as simple as possible. The Broncos are coming off a terrible loss past 20 years. Teams coming off a terrible loss, 35 or more, covered a 70% percent. percent clip. And these are not small sample sizes. I'm not throwing at you like, you know, going back to the dark ages. These are legitimate sample sizes. So, you know, it's going to be hard for me not to back the Broncos. And I'd like you to join me. Ugh, can't. Listen, there's always a friend that offers you to go on a road trip and you pass,

you know, as Jerry Jones would say, El Paso. That was his line, Michael Irving. One said, this is what I want and slit a paper across. And Jerry Jones said, one of my favorite cities and one of my favorite expressions, Michael, is El Paso. I want to pass on that contract. Yeah, it's an interesting week. I just don't take big numbers. The Niners thing. One of the things that really interests me just as a broadcaster, I'm always fascinated by what's next.

You know, I don't talk regular season baseball. I don't romanticize sports. It just doesn't appeal to me. There's a lot of hosts that love it. I get it. I'm not bothered by it. It's not me. And preseason quarterback numbers now, they were always a little sketchy.

I look at them now. If you're average in preseason, you're bad. Because Sean McVeigh, over the last six years, there are no more starters, even week three. So we're down to three games. And a lot of times, it's just scout guys and fourth stringers. So I look at that stidim preseason number and I'm like, God, 62% preseason. That's, and by the way, he knows McDaniel's offense from New England. I know.

But this is when, look, the needle you're always trying to thread as a better is an obnoxious number versus bad players. and what is the public going to be thinking? What is the threshold that makes you uncomfortable? And then betting on that. Betting is doing bad things. Betting is doing things that make you uncomfortable, right? It's why I've been on the show and I said, the Rams are 8.8.5.0.00s of Seahawks.

We got to take them. The bears are huge underdogs to the Eagles. We got to take them. The Broncos are huge underdogs. The chiefs two or three weeks ago. We got to take them. It's just what you got to do. And like, look, the truth is, if it's working out 60% of the time, that's a massive number. You just got to win 53% of the time and you're profiting. Like, you're one of the best betters in the world. So sometimes it's not going to work out,

but that's what you got to do. Blazing five is on Friday. I've always argued, I try to hit 55% a year. I'm on that pace. If it was on Monday, I think I'd hit 57%. I'll never be a pro better. but that's the difference between making a little scratch and losing money. So I tell people who say, oh, you missed on Blazing Five, I'm getting the worst number. Almost always, I'm getting absolutely a terrible number. Like, for instance, you know, Niners Raiders was a much better number earlier in the week. And then all of a sudden, you know, the Derek Carr thing and... Yeah, no, it's hard.

It's really hard. And look, we joked about it with Christian Watson. Those half points, those half yards, they make. matter. Just look at this past weekend. The Eagles opened at six as six-point underdogs against the Cowboys went down to five and a half. I bet it at five and a half. The Eagles were up by 10 in that game twice. They had the ball twice in the final five minutes, turned it over twice. They gave up a third and 30. They lost that game by six. I mentioned the Bengals. I mean, the Patriots against the Bengals. They were three and a half point underdogs.

I bet it at three and a half. They lost by four on some fluky, fluky place. It goes the other way, too. You only remember the times when it's terrible, but the times when it's terrible really hurt quite a bit. And that's when you remember, I really should get the best of the number. Best to you and your fam,

Chad Millman, Action Network, odds provided by Fandul. Happy holidays, buddy. Happy New Year, my friend. Volume. Make sure to check out the Dramon Green Show. I brought Dramon Green into the volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports,

unique perspective, understands behind the rope, also chops up with guests like Gary Payton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure download the Dramon Green Show wherever you get your podcast, only on the volume podcast network. Another podcast from some SNL,

late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes.

Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all,

embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed human.