The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Every Super Bowl In Vegas? “Super” Sharp or Square

Episode Date: February 9, 2024

Colin argues that Las Vegas is built to host the Super Bowl and pours cold water on the idea that the game needs to be shared by cities across the country (2:45) Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for the Super Bowl! 7:30 - Take the under? 9:30 - Take Chiefs +2? 49ers defense overrated 14:00 - The “Mahomes effect” on opponents 16:30 - Brock Purdy over/under 247 passing yards 23:30 - 3-leg parlays (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.

Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes.

Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of tauntons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith ruling. of two. Listen to Stuff to Bole Your Mind on the I-Hart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The volume. All right, Jason, Timp and I are just about ready to talk about the Lakers before we start with Jason. I want to grab your smartphone, download the GameTime app. Grab it right now.

That smartphone. 90 seconds. Game Time app. Want to go to a basketball game? Download game time. Use the code Colin C-O-L-I. And that's an easy code to remember. bucks off your first purchase. Game time is fast and easy to use. By the way, if you show up, game time has deals on tickets right up to the event and even an hour after it starts. All right. It's the best place for last minute deals. If you find tickets in the same section in row for less, game time will credit you 110%. You take the guesswork out of buying tickets with game time. Download the game time app. It's really quick. It's 90 seconds. Like all these apps, you create an account. The code is Colin then, C-O-L-I-N, and you get $20 off your first purchase.

Terms apply again. An account, the Redeemed Code, Colin. Download the GameTime app today. Last-minute tickets. Lowest prices guaranteed. All right, welcome in. We're going to have Chad Millman Sharper Square. You know him from the C-C-O- Action Network, all odds provided by Draft King. So I spent Wednesday night, flew in, back for the volume party. And the overriding theme, now this is from just advertisers and friends, media colleagues, a couple of players, was that why don't they hold all the Super Bowls in Las Vegas? For years and years, this was a big stigma. Remember years ago, Tony Romo wanted to do some fantasy football league and the NFL wouldn't allow it. It was always ridiculous. Vegas has legalized gambling, but told the NBA, warned them about Tim Donegie. They don't want a stigma around gambling. It's the gambling sports gambling mecca of the United States.

So there's been a lot of gambling controversies. Very few have been in Las Vegas. They're on the alert for scammers. So finally they put hockey in there and now football, it's all crushing. And there's no problem with the Raiders. Players make so much money now. I worry more about collegiate players and that stuff and officials and that stuff. And even, you know, that's why I always felt the NFL should, you know, make officials full-time employees because it holds them to a higher level of accountability. Not that they don't feel accountable, but, you know, it's the difference between being in a company and being a consultant. There's a different responsibility, a different level. And I think you always have to have your eye out for stuff. We saw the college football player

at LSU. You know, college kids, they're trying to make ends meet. They're stars in college. Pre-N-I-L, I always felt there was probably a player or two on every roster that was taking a more of a ham sandwich and a 20. But you just don't know, and so you can't speculate in individual players or teams. But I think Vegas and Miami are perfect Phoenix, nothing against it, but you got Scottsdale over there, Glendale over there, downtown Phoenix, they cut it into threes. Miami's got perfect weather. New Orleans is fine, although New Orleans, to spend a week in New Orleans, you kind of

run out of things to do besides drink and eat. And I think Las Vegas, I mean, you can golf, the golf is stunning, you can, You can gamble. You can shop. I mean, if you wanted to a couple of days, go to Los Angeles, it's a 40-minute flight. So I think Vegas is a perfect spot. I think the stigma with legalized gambling was always silly. I mean, there are those of us that I've been talking about gambling on the air my entire career. There's no stigma. Every guy I know gambles. I gamble. Everybody I know. And I gamble responsibly. I think 99% of people do. Do people eat responsibly? Do they always drink responsibly? Do they always drive responsibly? There's always going to be people that are irresponsible. But I think Vegas, works and especially having a covered stadium. You know, Dallas can get really cold in the winter. And Miami does not. It rains, but it doesn't get terribly cold. So if, you know, this idea that you have to mix it up around the country, no, you don't. We hold Marty Gras in one place, you know, Rock and Eve in one place. A lot of Hollywood awards are in one place. You don't have to move everything. You don't have to. Super Bowl, it would be two, three places? I'd be totally

okay with it. And I just think from the people I talk to, I talked to about four former players about three current players, members of the media, advertisers, and everybody said, this is the hotel capital of North America. There's great restaurants everywhere. There's multiple things to do. I remember going to a Super Bowl in Jacksonville where they literally had one hotel. And they had to bring in cruise ships, and they ended up with a Super Bowl. I never bought into this. Well, you've got to share the Super Bowl. I don't want it in Kansas City. It's too cold in February. Let's put the best players in the world under a dome in cold weather or in warm weather. Don't let the weather dictate the outcome.

The weather, bad weather, always punishes the greater quarterbacks. You know, I mean, it's like you don't want to reduce the effectiveness of Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady in their prime. It's December games happen, but if you can avoid it with a neutral field game, you don't schedule potential blizzards. Let's bring in Chad Millman, CCO Action Network, all odds provided by Draft Kings. I actually think this is an intriguing Super Bowl. So the Niners last time here were a stacked defensive roster limitations offensively. Now they're historically gifted. A top five running back ever, CMC.

Top left tackle five ever. A top 10 tight end ever. Debo is one of the top multi-usage players I can ever remember. I mean, they win 70% of the games with him, 47% without him. And then you have Brandon Ayyuk who has really surged this year to become an elite top seven, eight wide receiver. In fact, the weakness you would say is, well, the quarterback doesn't throw a great deep ball. Quarterback's not great if the weather is bad. But I think Kansas City's defense, generally great defenses, we think of them Ray Lewis. We can name the players.

You know, Bosa, Buckkiss, Richard Dent. You can name great players from great defenses, right? Kansas City are like, well, I like Chris Jones. Best corners in the league, incredibly active wide receivers, multiple paths. They had nine more sacks than the Niners, 26 more pressures. I think this is an all-time classic gifted offense and one of the most undervalued defenses I can ever remember. So I like the under 47 and a half. I think there's going to be yards and explosion plays, but not a lot of touchdowns. What do you think?

I think you've hit on all of the things that make this such an interesting game to analyze for bettors. Take this game, put it in week five, make the Niners two-point favorites. No one's betting it. It'd be like, yeah, it seems about right. I don't really see an edge. But because it's the Super Bowl, people feel like they need to figure out what side they want to be on, and they are ignoring the total. I will tell you right now, professional betters have been coming in on the under in this game for 10 days at this point. And it's really interesting.

The over up until about 48 hours ago was getting 57, 58, 59% of the tickets, meaning that's what the squares, the public are doing. And the under was getting about 60% of the money. That's professional betters. In the last 48 hours, the under is now also getting the majority of the. the tickets, and the under is getting the majority of the money. So I do think you'll see this number go down a little bit. I bet the under. I will probably end up being heavier on the under than I will on the side. I like Kansas City Plus 2, the Mahomes Factor and Andy Reed with extra time, but I do think there's something that's fairly obvious is that in five of eight quarters in the

playoffs, and I judge that against average defenses, Detroit Green Bay, at home. Brock Pretty was incredibly pedestrian. Mahomes at Buffalo, at Baltimore, minus 27 degrees. Didn't have a bad quarter. I can't wrap my brain around. Brock Pretty struggling against significantly less talented defenses at home. He'll be nervous. Kyle Shanahan may be tight, given the history.

This defense is, you know, they allowed. 17 points a game in a league that has pivoted, in a conference with all the best quarterbacks, in a league that's pivoted to offense, and if you go look at who the chiefs faced, it was a, it was Goff, it was Trevor Lawrence, it was Jalen Hertz, it was Josh Allen, regular, and post. They never allowed over 30 points.

The Niners did three times, and they mostly faced Sam Howells, Gino, Drew Locke, like, I think the gap in defense, you just know some of the Niners players. I don't think it's a great defense, do you? No, and I think you're hitting the nail on the head and why I like the Chiefs at plus two. I actually bet them at plus two and a half

and this opened 10 days ago. This Chief's defense, you just mentioned some things they did during the regular season, second lowest scoring defense in the NFL just behind by fractions of a point, the Baltimore Ravens. In the playoffs, against three of the most vaunted, high-powered offenses,

through the entire season. Two on the road. The Bills, the Ravens, allowed an average of four points per game in the second half. And I think the real key... That's incredible! It's incredible. And I think the real key to this game,

and it's also why people like the under. Andy Reid, this season, has played more conservatively in the second half. He is not because, not on purpose, but the offensive game plan has been slower. I believe they both want to go slow. I believe both of these teams believe in their kickers, at least the Chiefs really do. Kyle Shannon is not the kind of guy to go forward and forth down.

You are less likely to do it when you're facing Patrick Mahomes, when you believe in your defense, like I think the Niners do. I think the key to this game really is going to be how the defensive coordinators adjust in the second half. And if the Chiefs get out to a lead, how is that going to spook Kyle Shanahan? How is that going to spook Brock Purdy? we've seen it all offseason. The best quarterbacks in the game make bad decisions when they fall behind against Patrick Mahomes. He is a complete model wrecker. You cannot account for that in any of the handicapping.

And a lot of the conversations this week about handicapping this game have been about how do you account for a recency bias with what the chiefs have been doing? And how do you account for what the Niners have done all season long? And I think that you have to consider is recency bias something that is a better indication of how the chiefs have gotten better, how Andy Reid has changed his game plan and to bring in full circle, how Steve Spagnola has made adjustments in the second half of every game this season. But especially in the last six weeks of the season, I think that'll be the key. We've seen it in every playoff game this year. And by the way, we didn't see Steve Wilkes do that. That's right.

The Lions lost that game because the Lions made bad plays. because the Niners all of a sudden were playing so much better defensively. And I think when you've got a zone heavy scheme on defense against Patrick Mahomes, whose receivers don't have very big average depths of target, you're setting your thought to get sort of dink and dine until the Chiefs are scoring. And then you're behind the homes. And Mahomes has become more comfortable with that this season. Exactly.

You know, I would say Andy Reed and Steve Spagnola are the best coaching doing in the league. I do think D'Amico Ryans and Bobby Sloak for Houston are the best young coaching combination in the league. But I don't think Steve Wilkes. I think he's been a downgrade from Domingo Ryans. They're not as good as in the red zone. They're pass rush. They don't generate the pass rush outside of Bosa. So I think what we're looking at is, and I think you hit on something.

There's two whammies that work in Kansas City's favorite. Mahomes screws with everybody's head. You tend to call a more aggressive game because of Mahomes. nobody's calling wacky plays because I brought Purdy. Maybe the opposite. Secondly, Kyle's lost games in the Super Bowl. He had won. Does Andy Reed get into his head?

Does it get into his head? I asked Drew Breeze that today. I said, you know, you go to the Super Bowl. You didn't have this litany. I mean, the Niners have been great for 30 years mostly. They haven't won since 94. This team has been great for six years. Right?

That shit gets tight, right? Like, you can say whatever you want. This is going to be a loose Kansas City team with the best head coach and D.C. duo in the league, playing with confidence. An underdog, I think if it's close laid, I think all the intangibles go to Kansas City. I've got a cowherd take on this. Patrick Mahomes isn't playing just to win this title. He's playing for legacy. And Patrick Mahomes is such a gifted player.

We're talking about people who, we're talking about a guy who is at the top of his craft potentially beyond Tom Brady and the path he will be on if he wins this game is far beyond the accomplishments of just one season. And I think he's a game wrecker, as we said, because he can think beyond that and he will not shrink in the moment. And I think to your point about Shanahan, to your point about Brock Purdy, and I don't think this is necessarily specific to them. But in this case, it will be them. Mahomes makes you do things you wouldn't normally do. And if you've got the monkey on your back, because you haven't

been able to close the deal in the Super Bowl, and you're going against Patrick Mahomes, let's remember, Patrick Mahomes lost the Super Bowl against the box because he had no healthy offensive timeline. None. Like, all of these things. All of these things. You get clarity, looking back in history. So I do think that the context of Mahomes playing for legacy and being driven enough to know that's what he's playing for beyond this season, I think that's an X factor. So one of the, I don't do a ton of props, but Brock Purdy over under 247 passing yards. So Brandon Ayuk is sensational, but you're talking about Sneeds and an elite corner that when he guards you, the quarter of quarterback has a 65 passer rating and a 52% completion rate. You can put Sneed. McDuffie's also

excellent. So I don't think they'll beat the chiefs over the top. They could dink and dunk, but I'm Kyle Shanahan. There's a fairly obvious way to map this came out. I want to see Mahomes as little as possible. A lot of Debo, a lot of Christian McCaffrey. And Debo in some running sets, which we know we can do. But it felt like he did more of that pre-content. pre-contract than both. I don't have the data to support that. But the way to win this game for them is, I'm not putting it on Brock Purdy's shoulders. And we're not going to get cheap yards over the top. This is a Debo Christian McCaffrey game. Secondly, is that San Francisco, and I can't figure it out because nobody's tied to their play sheet and more than Kyle Shanahan. They've not been a great first quarter team in the playoffs. Green Bay out played him, Detroit out played them. So it's like you're not going to get major yards early. They're going to be fairly cautious, I would think, with Brock pretty early in the Super Bowl, right? Like, they're not going explosion plays. You're not going to get cheap crap over the top because the Chief's pass rush is excellent.

And their corners are, in my opinion, the best young corners in the game. I'm actually surprised. 247's a lot of yards when you have Christian McCaffrey. That's all against the Chief's defense, Baltimore was reluctant to run. They could have. You know, Gus Edwards' first run was 15 yards. His second carry was in the second half. They could have rung.

So that number to me seems high. Well, look, Colin, I had Gus Edwards over 40 and a half rushing yards. And when he ran for 15 yards on that first play, I'm like, I'm golden. Like, I'm watching in the action app. And I see like his percentage chance of covering that was like 80%. And then it was 70. And then it was 60. And then it was 50.

And all of a sudden, he ran one more time the entire game. And that, by the way, is indicative of how coaches and players change their game plan and change their style when you're playing Patrick Mahomes. I think the Niners, I'm not trying to avoid your question. I don't have a strong opinion on Purdy. I would probably lean to the under. I think it's lined about right. I don't see a huge edge in Brock Purdy and his passing yardage. I think I do see Debo Samuil over his receiving yardage as a bonus because I think he's going to line.

line up in the slot. I think that's a little bit of an advantage because you're not having to go against really good corners against the Chiefs and you're going against smaller linebackers. And so if they are going to find some success, that could be where it is. And I also agree with you, look, if the Niners are winning this game, they're doing it on the ground thrashing a mediocre chief's run defense. I won't say terrible Chiefs run defense. It's mediocre. It's a mediocre defense. So I think the advantage here is to run McCaffrey and run Debo Samuel. Would I say you're betting over the McCaffrey yardage? I don't think so because I do think that the chiefs know they'd almost rather put the ball in Brock Purdy's hands than let McCaffrey beat him

because he is so talented. So those are a couple of tricky props, I think, to bet. I will tell you one bet that I love that I think is underpriced right now. Christian McCaffrey, first rush over three and a half yards. Happens 60 to 65% at the time. And then the percentage increases with circumstances like we are looking at this week with the defense that isn't quite as good

as what the Niners were always facing. So if you're looking for sort of a sneaky fun prop that'll be over quickly, you'll either know right away if you're going to win that one. But that's one that I like. By the way, I'm going to defend the chiefs run defense a little, not overwhelmingly, but you don't play catch-up with the chiefs like you used to. So people simply run more against Kansas City.

In previous years, the chief's defense was viewed. They don't allow many rushing yards because you're always trailing. This chief team has been trailing. So people aren't getting into shootouts. And when you don't get into shootouts with Mahomes, you find comfort in running and eating the club. because Mahomes is in your head. So people are much more willing to run against Kansas City. I don't think their run defense is bad.

They're too athletic at linebacker for it to be bad. They really have good twitchy linebackers. Yeah. But this defense has the best corners and excellent pass rush. So people attack the run game more. And I think, again, I don't think it's a great run defense. It's not Baltimore. But I think it's a little over discussed how poor it is,

based on if you knew you didn't have to get into a shootout with Mahomes, you'd want to run the damn clock so we'd get two less possessions. So people go into a week and say, we're going to commit to the run. Well, if you commit to the run, you run the ball more and you run the ball with more success. So I think people have gone into games with Kansas City thinking, hey, we got to be good situationally in the red zone because when we get chances, we got to score touchdowns, not field goals. That was forever. That's been the mantra with Kansas City. You got to get touchdowns, not field goals. Teams go for it and fourth down. You don't really have to do with this team. I agree. I bring the ball. So I think the defense for Kansas City is excellent against the pass.

I think it's okay against the run. Good enough. Good enough. And I think that to bring a full circle that plays into why we like the under. And the game script that we're expecting is going to be that both teams play some kind of ball control offense, which is really what they've been doing all year, right? These have not been explosive from a Niners perspective, not an chief's perspective, not an explosive offense. And the Niners, while they can be explosive, are more than likely recognizing that their ability to win this game is going to be dependent on their ability to run the ball.

So as long as they can be committed to that, I like our chances on the under. Do I think either side is a lock? not really. I will say one thing you want to consider, when teams win the Super Bowl, they tend to win by a field goal or more. So if you really like the Chiefs, another fun alternative bet to make, Chiefs minus two and a half at plus 130, 135, because you're getting better odds. And if you think it's going to be a close game and the Chiefs are going to win, you might as well take the Chiefs at minus two and a half, which is the limit of where you want to be

I'm sort of taking an alt line here and getting a little bit of extra juice. Chad Millman, been great. My three-teamer is Chiefs plus two, under, and Brock, under 247 passing yards. Give me a three-teamer very quickly. I will take Chiefs Plus Two. I will take the under, and I will take Devo Samuel over 58 and a half receiving yards. I think you're right on that. You know, the earth thing with him, bubble screens.

He gets cheap yards. He turns four into nine, like three times a game. You get a lot of cheap stuff. With Trent Williams out in front of them, best alignment in football? Come on. Nothing cheap about that living room. Boy, that is... Dude, I am in a...

Listen, you'll appreciate this. And we didn't, you know, we saw each other last night at the amazing volume party. That thing. Dude, three years ago, four years ago in L.A., I was like, you know, 150 people in a backyard by the pool. last night, I don't even know how many people were at this place last night, but it was massive and full of star power. And I was like telling somebody that, you know, and you can appreciate this, I first started coming out to Vegas to write my book The Odds about these guys who've been on sports for a living. Yeah, yeah.

The interplay between bookmakers and betters 25 years ago, right? And you know some of the guys that I was profiling like Boston Red and the guys at the start. Dust were the bookmakers that I profile. One of the guys that I profile is now the CEO at the Mirage Hotel. So I came in a town. What's his name? Joe Lupo. Oh, I know the name, yeah. Yeah. And so Joe Lupo is now the CEO at the Mirage Hotel. And so I came into town and like he sets me up in a room that is so freaking big, I've got a bathroom on one side of the room and an equally large bathroom on the other side of the room and I've got a grand marble foyer. I've got a suite that is so high roller when I go to check in, the question is, what kind of line of credit would you like? It's not like

do you need a line of credit. It's automatically assumed I need a line of credit. When I walked in, I was sitting there checking in, a guy walked in behind me, he's on his phone saying to a guy, I don't know who he's talking to. He's like, listen, I'm going to need another hundred grand on the line to credit. I'm already down 100 grand. I haven't even checked in. It'll be fine. Don't worry about it. I started with 250. Let's put another 100 grand in there. Brinks out a lot of cash. It's a different game here. Just a different game. But you know, it's like you, but you were here. You started your career here. The fact that the Super Bowl is here, that there's professional hockey here, that they're talking about baseball here, even though sports betting is not as big a thing here. If you look at the numbers,

Nevada's like kind of irrelevant as a sports betting market. It's annoying. But it's a major league sports town now. Yeah. I'll give you a 90 second sport story. I arrive in Las Vegas. I drive in. I drive in and I'm going to meet my boss out of college at the circus circus. I get there about an hour early, drive in, driving as fast as I can on my AMC pacer. I arrive and my mom's checking on me like every six hours. How am I doing? I get to the circus, circus. I put a quarter in a slot. I went $75 first pull. I went to a phone. I called my mom. I said, mom, love this town. Don't send money. And I never, ever in seven years pulled another handle that won. Yeah. My first pull, 75 bucks, never won again. Ever. Ever. No, it's so funny.

When I was checking in yesterday, I was in this room, like this super VIP room where you go to check in. And they needed like 15 minutes to finish cleaning up my massive suite. And so I had a little bit of work to do. I pulled up my computer and I was responding to a Slack from the CFO of our company. And I'm like, all right, let me just do this and I'll finish this in 10 minutes. And he goes, what are you doing? I'm like, well, my room's not ready yet. He goes, your room's not ready.

And you're responding to me instead of going to again. right now. I'm like, guy, I got to pace myself. I'm not losing on my money in the first 15 minutes. I'm here. I want to leave up. I'm going to be very disciplined about this. You don't get rich taking money out of your pockets, Colin. That's what I say. Chad Milman, CCO Action Network. I got to go pick up my wife at the airport, my beautiful wife. Good talking, buddy. See ya. The volume. Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast, Take a moment, rate and review. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite.

Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-Heart Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app. or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics

from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of taun tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to blow your mind on the IHeart Radio, Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.