The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Final Draymond Verdict, 'Sharp or Square' Week 6 NFL Picks
Episode Date: October 14, 2022Colin gives his final verdict about Draymond Green blasting Jordan Poole with a viral haymaker, and if it’s cause for outrage or more common than the public realizes (3:00). Then the Action Network'...s Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 6 picks are "sharp" or "square". They look at Ravens/Giants (13:00), Bengals/Saints (15:00), Cowboys/Eagles (17:00), Bills/Chiefs (20:00), Niners/Falcons (21:00), Cardinals/Seahawks (23:00), Broncos/Chargers (28:00), Vikings/Dolphins (30:00), Jets/Packers (31:00). Subscribe and follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! #herd #volumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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Hi, everybody.
Welcome in Friday morning podcast.
It's called Sharper Square.
I give my 7-8 favorite picks of the week.
And Chad Millman, Action Network tells me if I'm a square or I'm on the right side.
So it's interesting.
There's been great debate on the Draymond Green fight if this happens a lot or if it's a rare occurrence.
So Kevin Durant said, I think it's rare.
Jeff Van Gundy said, I think it's rare.
Damien Lillard said, I've seen it more in college than pros, but it happens all the time.
Steve Kerr said he saw it at least 20 times.
So who's telling the truth?
Let's label it a skirmish.
Guys square each other up.
Guys get each other in a headlock.
Guys swing and miss.
Guys flail.
I mean, even the fights we've seen during games, how many knockouts are there?
Baseball, football, basketball, hockey, not that many, right?
But a fight, a skirmish.
So I think it happens a lot because I've been told it happens a lot by people I trust, like Dame and Steve Kerr.
Jeff Van Gundy came out and said,
It just doesn't happen very often.
And the irony of Jeff Van Gundy saying it is quite interesting.
The one coaching memory I have of Jeff Van Gundy is in a fight, holding the leg of a player
at the bottom of a scrum.
This stuff never happens.
Jeff, that's the only thing I ever remember about you.
Holding on a leg during a fist fight.
So Van Gundy said it doesn't happen often.
yet acknowledged he saw two fistfights.
So let's use Jeff Van Gundy as the median, right?
Half the coaches in the last, say, 20 years have seen less than Jeff and half more.
So we looked it up today.
In the last 20 years, easy number, there's been 141 NBA coaches.
141.
if on average they've seen two skirmishes.
And that's the word skirmish.
Sometimes you swing and miss.
Sometimes you wrestle.
Sometimes it's a headlock.
Sometimes players intervene.
Sometimes you land a punch.
141 coaches 20 years.
If each has seen two, it's happened 282 times.
Does that sound infrequent?
Steve Kerr said he's seen 20.
So I was talking to somebody who would
very, very close with Steve Kerr. So I covered Steve Kerr in Portland. I don't know Steve well,
but well enough that if I saw him in a restaurant, I'd stop by, we'd shoot the shit. He'd ask a
question. I'd ask a question. Very respectful. Steve and I got along great. Very smart guy.
So somebody I know that knows Steve Kerr very well. When he asked him about that fight,
and this person, you know, said, you were in a fight, the Michael Jordan fight.
Kerr's response was, yeah, it looked a lot like that.
Of course it did.
Michael Jordan got a flush punch on Steve Kerr.
You didn't see the video.
So you hold Michael Jordan the great leader in very high esteem.
That's the difference, 50s, the 60s, the 70s, the 80s, the 80s, the 80s.
in the early 90s, we didn't have TMZ. We didn't have iPhones. We didn't have access to this.
A couple weeks ago, people freaked out because Ken Dorsey threw headsets in a coaching cubicle
upstairs at an NFL game. I've sat next to coaching cubicles. That happens every game.
Yelling, screaming, cussing, throwing things. Did you see the reaction around Ken Dorsey by the other
coaches, he didn't even flinch during the Draymond fight. People moved over, but the coach's initial
reaction, if you saw the six or seven people, they moved over, they didn't rush, they didn't act like
this was a once-in-a-lifetime moment. I'm not saying that big knockout punches happen all the time.
But when Tiger Woods had an affair, the outrage over Tiger Woods, I thought, was incredibly
laughable. Two or three of the most popular golfers of all time were known as absolute dogs on the tour.
But you didn't have paparazzi. Tiger Woods faced it. You didn't have iPhones. You didn't have
bloggers, the media, people invading your space. Don't confuse something is rare and you just haven't
seen it before.
there's a big difference.
Let's get the child Millman, C-C-O of the Action Network,
sharp or square, here we go.
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Time for another edition.
of sharp or square with our betting superhero, Chad Millman, CCEO of the Action Network,
all odds provided by Fandul.
Okay, to add a losing week.
But it was a half a point within a winning week.
Let's start with this.
The betting public overreacts.
Giants beat the Packers.
Now everybody thinks the Giants are suddenly a great team.
Ravens were minus five now minus six.
That's a dead number.
as you told me last week, minus five.
The Ravens are the better team.
The Ravens just faced the Bengals,
and it looked ugly because it's a divisional foe,
and Cincinnati's a pretty good team.
Minus five, minus six,
the Ravens are going to go in.
It's right back to reality for the Giants.
By the way, Daniel Jones is a better road quarterback
than a home quarterback.
I take the Ravens to cover Sharper Square.
Did somebody send you my script before I came on?
because I don't even, I'm flabbergasted at the thoughtfulness, at the strategy, at the reaction,
at how you're reading the market, how you're thinking strategically about the numbers.
You've said it all, Colin Cowherd.
It's almost like you've graduated.
The wise guys are all over the Ravens.
Okay?
It moved from three and a half to five and a half.
As you said to six, I think six, the six is always.
the line of demarcation in betting, especially now because these coaches are all cuckoo, right?
And you don't know if they're going to go for it.
You don't know if they're going to go for the extra point, if they're going to go for
the two point conversion.
So you're right on the number.
Play it up to six.
You're right on the side.
Here's what's really interesting.
85% of this money is on the Ravens right now, but you're still seeing some tickets come in on
the Giants because of everything you just said, that public perception, people are
buying into the 4-1 Giants, what Lamar Jackson is really, really good at. In addition to
growing so much over the past couple years, understanding where he is on the field when he's
running with the ball, he's great against the Blitz. And the Giants defensive coordinator,
Wink Martindale, who obviously spent all those years with the Ravens, loves to Blitz. So you've got a
great quarterback against the Blitz, a defensive coordinator who likes to Blitz. You've got Ronnie Stanley
on the offensive line who was an alternating series last week, coming back full strength.
Take the Ravens, call it today.
Here's another one. Mike Tomlin Steelers plus eight and a half at home.
I always believe after a team, especially a functional team, is humiliated.
Take him the following week.
This is not at Buffalo.
It's not 25 mile an hour wins.
It's a Tampa team, frankly, that has sputtered with Todd Bulls offensively.
Tampa wins the game.
Greg Cosell told me today, Kenny Pickett was actually okay.
They just have no running game.
I'm taking the eight and a half, sharper square.
Honestly, where's Colin?
Somebody find column and put him back on the goddamn podcast.
This wasn't even, you know, every week like pull back the curtain a little bit, a little bit.
Your producers will send me the games that you're thinking about.
This was not on the list.
And this was on my list to convince you of when at the end you will,
say to me, give me a game that I'm not thinking about. It is so gross. You got to take the
Steelers. Every trend points to the Steelers. We have this database at Action Network tracks millions
of betting data points going back to 2003. A team in the Steelers spot, which is coming off a blowout
loss. They're a big dog at home. They're getting less than 30% of the betting tickets. It's
what the Steelers are getting, they cover 61% of the time in this spot.
I don't like to give precedents where the data set and the sample size isn't very big.
This is a few hundred games.
We're not talking about like 10-0 on Thursday night football, right?
So this is a classic fade the public spot.
Nobody wants to do it.
You just hold your nose.
Professionals are doing just that.
The number's bounced around from eight and a half down to eight.
And then every time it gets to eight, it goes back to eight and a half.
Pros like the Steelers.
well done Colin
those are my two bets my best bets
I would like to go blazing two
but it just doesn't have the impact of Blazing 5
terrific too
but I've told you this for years
I've always got three bets I like
and then at the end I called it Blazing 5
I was an idiot I should have come out with Blazing 2
I'd never miss a game
so here's a game that's interesting
there are teams
that sometimes have bad records that I really love
I think the Raiders are a real interesting one in four team, four close losses to decent clubs.
Cincinnati's another one of those teams.
I think Cincinnati, I take the first game out because of the surgery for Joe Burrow.
No practice, no preseason.
He, Stafford, and Brady were off in week one.
Okay, so I start with them kind of the second half against the Dallas Cowboys.
At that point, they've been competent.
Now, they're not averaging much per play.
but James Winston has regressed badly.
Tassam Hill can be fun, but in his career rarely has had big back-to-back rushing games.
I don't think the Saints are very good.
Cincinnati's in a fairly desperate spot now because Baltimore beat them.
I'd swallow the one and a half and I would take the bingle, sharper square.
What happened to Colin?
He was so sharp and now he's so, he's so square.
You've chosen one of the squarest plays on the board.
And it's a game that every wise guy I've spoken to loves, loves, loves, loves the Saints.
You're still getting Bengals Super Bowl inflation.
You're still getting Joe Burrow inflation, which has only gotten bigger since he became a member of the volume family.
This O-line is a mess, like truly a mess.
And it's going up against a very good defensive line.
And even though the Saints haven't gotten a ton of pressure, they also don't need to blitz.
And Joe Burroughs passer rating is below average when he isn't blitzed.
This is a very, very good matchup for the Saints.
The line has moved in their direction.
It was at two.
It went down to one and a half.
The wise guys have this game lined as a pick.
So they feel like they're getting a lot of value here.
Okay.
I'm going to take the Cowboys now plus six and a half at Philadelphia.
Two starters could be missing.
The Eagles have yet to trail.
They don't score in the second half.
Cooper Rush doesn't throw interceptions.
I don't know if they win, and I generally like to take the side of the team that's going to win.
This number was a little tastier early.
It's now six and a half.
I have a completely disruptive defensive line that in every game they've played,
Dallas has disrupted starting offensive lines.
Now I got backups.
I saw what they did with the Rams backups.
I'm going to take the six and a half and take Dallas here,
sharper square.
Well, the sharp side is the Eagles at four and a half,
which is what I got, and five and five and a half,
and even six.
The reason it got to six and a half is because the wise guys
had been betting it nonstop.
I would still take the Eagles at six and a half.
I have not gotten any feedback from professional betters that they would still take this at six and a half.
So I would imagine they might like the Cowboys here.
But the Cowboys are not one of those teams that professional betters generally like.
And they are getting a huge benefit of doubt from the public in how this lined open,
which is why the wise guys played it.
Let's just take the Cowboys only as an example right now.
then forget about the Eagles for a second.
The Cowboys beat the Rams on a forced fumble return for a touchdown,
a blocked punt that was followed up by a field goal,
a 57-yard Tony Pollard touchdown run.
In that game, they had fewer first downs, fewer yards per play, more penalties.
They had a couple turnovers, the couple fumbles they were covered themselves.
They were outplayed by the Rams who just aren't very good right now and had a terrible
offensive line.
The Cowboys also looked amazing and beat up on the Washington commanders, terrible offensive
line, Cincinnati Bengals, terrible offensive line.
So we're all loving Cooper Rush.
We're loving this defense, which is outstanding, but they're doing it against frauds.
And so I like the Eagles because they're finally playing a team that has probably the best
offensive line and an overall offense and a defense that can stack up against whatever the
Cowboys are going to bring. All right. If you look at the history of the league when teams win by
25, 30 points one week, they don't cover the following week. Kansas City at home getting two and a half
points seems like the obvious play. I also believe it's a close game and Kansas City is better than
Buffalo last three years in close games. Chiefs plus the point, sharper square. So this is really
interesting. Complete and total divide on this game. I think if you look at this number,
you blindly look at this number and you see a really good team that is a short home underdog,
you're automatically going to take it. And then, as you know, we do the favorites podcast
on the volume podcast network. Me and my BFF, Simon Hunter, we got some calls from professional
betters who were talking about what we talked about on Tuesday, they like to call over the 48
hours so they can give us feedback so we can talk about it on the podcast on Thursday.
They love the bills.
Loved the bills.
And it's a completely unconventional spot for professional betters to like a team, which
is a good team playing against a good team on the road.
And that team on the road is favored.
But I will tell you, there is some bubbling up conversation out there.
that the Chiefs aren't as good as their record shows, right?
They could have easily lost a couple of these games that they won, the Chargers for one,
last week against the Raiders for another.
So the bills are kind of a juggernaut right now and are built specifically to beat the Chiefs.
So the Sharp side, according to the Sharp calls, is the Bills.
All right, Sharper Square.
The most beat-up team in the league is San Francisco.
They're on the road second straight week, and Atlanta gets plus five.
five and a half. We know that San Francisco wrecks offenses, but they have now five different
starters out. Atlanta is 37 big plays offensively this year, which is a weird number for a
very, very average team. I would take the five and a half. I think the Niners win, but I'm just
not laying that on the road, time away, all beat up, meaningless game, overconfident after
wrecking Carolina. I'll take the point sharper square.
The Falcons are a really interesting team, and they have been a wise guy team all year long.
They continue to be a wise guy team.
This is a sharp side.
It's really fascinating because if you look on Twitter, I bet if you ask Greg Kosellis,
the people who are inside football look at the Falcons offensive scheme, and they love it.
They think Arthur Smith has built a really sound, fundamental running game that can be,
interchangeable, right? Cordero Patterson has been out of the lineup and they still did really well
against the Bucks and almost won that game, if not for, at least had the opportunity, if not for
that rough in the past recall. And so they have been leaning on their running game, which is
helping them stay in the game. The biggest challenge for them in this game, I'm not saying the wise
guys are walking away from the Falcons. The 49ers have a dominant rush defense. And so this will be
the first real true test of how sophisticated Arthur Smith's running game can be, and can it play
against the best in the league? And finally, I think it's pretty interesting. The Seahawks are now
getting three, all odds provided by Fandul. Arizona is a terrible early team, so Seattle will play
with the lead. It's one of the loudest stadiums. Arizona plays great late, but there is no proof here,
though I don't buy Gino Smith continuing this trend, Seattle has been in all but one game,
that against the healthier Niner team.
They take leads.
They're at home.
They're getting a field goal.
And to be honest, I get a veteran coach against the coach.
Most wise guys don't even like.
I think I take Seattle in the points here, Sharper Square.
Totally sharp.
This line makes no sense, Colin.
Your read is 100% right.
Seattle is the better coach.
They have the better offensive line.
They have the top-rated passing offense in the NFL.
They have the most explosive passing offense in the NFL.
The car's defense is the second worst in defending explosive pass plays.
This line opened at three.
It moved in Seattle's direction.
You got a short home dog in the division.
And I know it sounds crazy to say it right now.
You have the better quarterback in Gino Smith.
So, of course, the wise guys are on Seattle.
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Some call it grotesque.
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Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.
I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.
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Okay.
I'm going to ask you for one of your picks.
And then I'm going to ask you for an opinion on a pick that I stay away from, but it's interesting.
Chargers now, Fandual minus four and a half, I would be prone to take the chargers because I just don't think
Denver's going to get this right. Just your opinion on that.
So my opinion was take the Broncos at five and a half. The reason why it's moved to four and a half,
even though all of the tickets are coming in on the chargers, is because wise guy money has come in on
the Broncos. The wise guys are not sold on the chargers at all. And the chargers get sort of the
public bounce because people love their roster. They love Justin Herbert. They love their receivers
on the edges.
But this is not a roster that is ever able to put it together.
And you really can't count on their coach.
And so that's why the wise guys are fading the chargers.
It's a pass for me.
I don't have a lot of faith in Russell Wilson, not because of the situation that he's in,
but he did just have surgery.
And like, we've seen quarterbacks who are playing in pain.
It's not easy to do.
So now I got a guy who hasn't been playing well and is playing in pain.
with an injury that I don't really have a good sense of how bad it is. So it's a pass for me.
At four and a half, I'd probably still lean Broncos. I'd probably lean Broncos until this got down
to three, to be honest, just because it's a key number. It's a divisional matchup. It's similar
principles to what we talked about with the Seahawks and the Cardinals from a strictly from a
bet the number point of view. Okay. Finally, give me the pick you like I haven't discussed.
Can I interest you in the Miami Dolphins plus three and a half?
I don't really.
I know.
Third string quarterback.
But you know what?
He was not terrible on Sunday, coming in off the bench cold, getting no snaps whatsoever
during the week.
And that game, until the dolphins were basically out of defensive players, going into
the fourth quarter, they had a change.
to go ahead in that game 20 to 19, and I do believe having watched that game and was pretty
heavily invested in the Dolphins, they had a real shot to win that game with Skyler Thompson
until the wheels just fell off. It was too much, right? You get him a week of practice,
you get him at home, you get a hook. So that means that the half point, so that have to go from
three to three and a half. I'm getting a home underdog with a really good team, getting them
where they've played really well against the best team in the NFL.
We've seen what they can do.
We've seen how hard it is for teams to win down there.
I don't trust the Vikings.
I don't trust Kirk Cousins.
I have no faith in this team.
So right now, 51% of the bets on the Vikings,
73% of the money is on the dolphins.
That tells you the wise guys are on the dolphins.
Millman, very good work today.
Hey, just for kicks and shits and giggles,
Jets plus seven against Green Bay.
Jets.
I know.
That's the wise guy side.
I got to tell you, I was shocked.
I really had no opinion on it.
And all I've been hearing all week, JETS, Jets, Jets, Jets, Jets.
People are buying in.
They're buying in.
I like their offensive pieces.
They got some clever pieces.
People really like Brees Hall.
They really like what they have in receivers.
I heard three different people,
to me today, sauce gardener can be a legit top five cover corner right now. So the Packers have
not been able to put it together. And you've got a Jets team that is feeling pretty good. You've got a
Robert Sala defense that has always been able to shut down the Packers without having the Blitz.
And so when he was with the Niners, so I think from a numbers perspective and a matchup perspective,
people like the Jets, what I would say about this one, what I would say about this one,
is you might want to keep an eye on it because, look, seven is such a key number.
There's a very good chance.
I'm looking right now.
You might be able to get it to seven and a half.
So I look around or at least wait until we get closer to see if you can get a seven and a half.
Good seeing you, buddy.
Good to see you too, my friend.
Great, listen, you did great work today.
You came out on fire today.
Until you fell off the map with some of those really terrible ideas, you were.
My starting pitching is excellent.
My bullpen sucks.
Once I go to the later innings, I'm out.
I was so proud of you.
I'm like, he's been listening after all these years.
And then.
That's what my wife said.
God, I thought you were listening after all these years and I disappoint her.
I disappoint everybody, Milman.
Everybody.
All the time.
It's tragic.
All right.
I'll see you later.
The volume.
Make sure to check out the Dramon Green show.
I brought Dremon Green into the volume because one of the most of the most.
more entertaining voices in sports, unique perspective, understands behind the rope.
Also chops up with guests like Gary Payton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady.
Make sure download the Draymond Green Show wherever you get your podcast,
only on the volume podcast network.
Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite.
Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends.
Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funny.
This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel,
help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
Where does your group perform?
We do some retirement homes.
Those people are starving for banter.
Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app,
Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged.
It's the enhanced games.
Some call it grotesque.
Others say it's unleashing human potential.
Either way, the podcast Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year.
Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.
I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth.
Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
This is an IHeart podcast.
Guaranteed Human.
