The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Harbaugh NFL Buzz, Rodgers Retirement Deja Vu + ‘Sharp or Square’ NFL Week 18

Episode Date: January 6, 2023

First, (3:00) Colin explains where Sean McVay could land if he leaves the NFL sidelines for TV, why Jim Harbaugh would choose the NFL over Michigan, and if the Packers should finally move on from Aaron Rodgers instead of dealing with another offseason of retirement threats. Then the Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 18 picks are "sharp" or "square". They look at Titans/Jags (13:00), Rams/Seahawks (15:00), Lions/Packers (20:00), Jets/Dolphins (22:00), Patriots/Bills (24:00), Chargers/Broncos (25:00), Chiefs/Raiders (27:00), Browns/Steelers (29:00), and Colin’s TCU/Georgia CFP Championship Game pick (31:00). Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates, and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! #Herd #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Just use the promo code Colin and download the Fandul app today. Hi, everybody. Welcome in to the Friday morning podcast. Chad Millman, Sharper Square, one of our last three or four additions of it. I'm at 54% on FS1, so I got to have a winning week. I like a lot of dogs this week. First opinion today, Sean McVeigh. there are rumors that Sean McVeigh is in line to be a TV analyst after this year.

He's going to take a TV job and leave. Well, my first thought is he would probably, because he's newly married, want to take something that has limited travel. So I think he would do the studio analyst work over the game broadcast, right? Also, I don't think he'd want to criticize players or coaching decisions, and you have to do that on a game broadcast. So my takeaway is if Sean Payton left Fox and got a great job, I think we'd probably call Sean McVeigh. I don't say that with any insight, but that's what I would do if I ran Fox. I'd bring in the local guy, Sean McVeigh. He'd be great.

He's got great energy. He's great looking. He would absolutely be very, very helpful to any network. He also has immediacy. He just won a Super Bowl. So he'd be a great studio guy. I don't think Sean McVeigh, when you do game broadcasts, there's an art to it. You've got to be critical sometimes of coaching decisions, and Sean is young.

He's going to return eventually to coaching. I don't think he'd be comfortable doing that. Peyton Manning. That's why they do the Manning cast on ESPN2. You know, he wants to control the broadcast. He doesn't want to be set up to criticize, you know, friends, coaches, even some opponents. He wants to be well-liked.

So the McVe rumors, I just don't think he likes losing twice a year to his rival, Kyle Shanahan. And right now the Rams, it's not a total rebuild, but they're not close to San Francisco in terms of elite talent unit to unit. They just don't have it. They've had too many high-priced players. They're a little thin at different spots. Linebacker, offensive line, and their stars, Cooper Cup, Stafford. Aaron Donald getting older.

That's why I think they need to trade Jalen Ramsey and get a number one pick or a first round pick. So McVe to TV studio, I get it. Game, I don't. And frankly, studio jobs don't pay that much. They pay well. Terry Bradshaw gets a lot of money, I imagine. But for a one or two year deal to be a studio guy, I think it's an easier job.

And maybe McVeigh newly married in L.A. every Sunday, that feels like the fit for Sean McVeigh. But I think long term, he's a coach. Speaking of coaches, Jim Harbaugh released a statement, I'm a Michigan man. Harbaugh is either releasing the leaks to Carolina, Minnesota last year in Denver, to help him get a raise at Michigan or help him get a raise in the NFL. I will say this because both jobs have advantages. In college, you don't have to deal with a billionaire owner.

You have great power over your personnel. In the NFL, you don't have to deal with the NCAA, kids taking classes, boosters, and a lot of silly nonsense. And he can make a lot of money at both. What I've heard, though, through kind of the coaching tree is that the SEC and some Big 12 schools are simply willing to pay more through the NIL. And some of these classic esteemed universities like Michigan and Notre Dame are not as comfortable writing million-dollar checks to high schoolers. And that some of these coaches, USC by the way, has a very weak NIL program. Caleb Williams makes a lot and almost nobody else. Because LA's biggest boosters, they don't want to pay off high school kids.

In Alabama, car dealer, no problem. Texas Tech, some of these programs, Oklahoma, car dealers, casino owners, they don't care. They want to win football games. College football defines their entertainment dollar. It doesn't in L.A. And so I wonder for Harbaugh is Michigan a very esteemed university in a good space with NIL? Some of their boosters just may not be comfortable buying high school kids or spending a fortune on a 19-year-old high school freshman or college freshman. So I think Harbaugh is great

for college football where coaches are off in the stars over their players. But sometimes a college coach is made to feel guilty for making big money. An NFL coach never is. You don't even know what NFL coaches make. So I think that's very attractive to guys like Harbaugh who've always wanted to be well compensated. So Green Bay Packer icon and quarterback Aaron Rogers told a newspaper in Wisconsin that he is undecided about next season. I think it's interesting how Aaron Rogers and Brett Farve have largely, in their playing careers at least, become the same person. Difficult, threatening retirement, undecided, not willing to embrace new coaching styles. I mean, who did Aaron Rogers want back when Nathaniel Hackett left for Denver, his old 70-year-old quarterback

coach. Aaron doesn't want new things. He struggled with rookie receivers. At the end, Farr became very stubborn, and that's sort of what Aaron Rogers is. I didn't like Aaron Rogers talking about retirement the previous couple of years because I thought a David Bacdiari or a Devante Adams who could on the market fetch a lot of offers or retire. Bactiari could retire. He's had injuries. If they don't know if you're going to play, they may just call it quits or like Devante Adams did, leave.

The Packers now have their best players locked in and their young players, Christian Watson and Romeo Dobbs, aren't going anywhere. I do believe that this draft, if you look at the setup of the Packers' draft, last year they went and concentrated on some defense. and offensive linemen, this draft is set up for them, middle of the first, or a little later if they get into the playoffs and beat the Lions at Lambo this weekend, to go get a Jordan Addison

wide receiver at USC first round, get a tight end third round. They could use a safety also mixed in there, maybe an edge rusher. But this draft has some really nice offensive pieces. I think they need another receiver. I think they need another tight end. I think I would go get another offensive. tackle and then safety, defensive and edge rusher. But I think the Packers at this point are strongly considering, especially if they lose to Detroit, I think there will be strong considerations in the building to move Aaron Rogers. Hell, they can not make the playoffs with Jordan Love.

Right. So I said this to Nick Wright a couple of days ago on this. podcast is that the dead cap hit is not as punitive if Jordan Love plays for two years because you're not paying him anything. And a lot of their best young players have not gotten the bag yet. So if you can trade Aaron Rogers and just get a number one pick this year, a number two pick next year, whatever you fetch, if you have two first and a second, that's three starters. Green Bay has a history of drafting well. I think you go get a tight end. I think you get a wide. It's a very good tight-in class.

It's a very good wide receiver class. It's a very good offensive tackle class. Green Bay has a history of drafting those positions fairly well. You hand it over to Jordan Love. I think you got yourself the best roster still in the division. If Jordan Love is a B quarterback, not A, not B plus. If he's a B, if he's Ryan Tannehill or close to it, I think they're going to consider the move.

I mean, you ask yourself, once again he comes out, I don't know if I want to play. Do you really think these executives are fans of this? Do you think they like it? It's like Wall Street doesn't like the unknown. Even if you have bad earnings, if Wall Street knows they're coming, the stock market doesn't go down. Executives don't like the unknown.

And every time Aaron says that, it just comes off to those guys as a power play and cringy. I think if they lose to Detroit, I think the Tennessee Titans and Green Bay will be on the phone within a month. I really do. Now, I think Green Bay is going to win close, but something to keep your eye on. All right. Let's bring in Chad Millman, CCO Action Network, all odds provided by a Fandul. Didn't have a great week of picks. I'm 54% on the year on my blazing five picks. I've tried to get somewhere between 55 and 56%.

But I do make my picks late Thursday, so that's not exactly the best day. No excuses. I need a winning week to get to 55. So here we go. This one seems fairly obvious. Jaguars looking ahead of the playoffs. Titans in a good rivalry game get six and a half. They're beat up.

But my takeaway is Vrable teams are tough and play with great pride, divisional game. I'm still with Jacksonville as much as I love the story. I think the story is better than the team. I take Titans plus six and a half, sharper square. You're so sharp on this that the line has actually moved down to six because the wise guys have come in pretty heavy on the Titans. They've been coming in heavy on the Titans all week. A couple factors here. Number one, you mentioned Vrable.

He's an amazing coach. We've seen that over the years. The way he managed that game several years ago in the playoffs against Tom Brady, the way he's gotten this team, which is not very, good to win seven in a row this year and even be in contention for the playoffs this year without AJ Brown, Ryan Tanhill taking a step back. Derek Henry was not at his best the entire season. So the wise guys, they like Tennessee. They had this game power rated at closer to four and a half. I think part of this is perception, right? The Titans, they lost big to the Cowboys in prime time with a quarterback they had signed eight days earlier. But don't forget, Mike Vrable in that

game, he purposely rested his starters. This is sort of where Mike Vrable makes himself, separates himself from other coaches. He knows when the games matter. He wasn't thinking about that Cowboys game. He's thinking, I got guys who were banged up. Let me get them as healthy as they're going to be all year for the game that actually matters. I'm not going to get caught in the shiny object conversation about trying to win every game. Meanwhile, the Jags, they beat Zach Wilson, They beat the Cowboys on an overtime pick. Vrable in this spot is also as a dog of three or more, 70% over his career. 30 games, he's 21 and 9 as a dog of three or more.

So the lean here, Colin, is on the Titans. All right, Rams getting six, all odds provided by a fan duel against the Seahawks. So if you really look at Baker Mayfield's numbers, they've been pretty strong. strong. The re-emergence of Cam Acres. Seattle's without their best linebacker. And let's be honest about Seattle. Home field.

I lost to Carolina here. I think it's a young team. I think McVeigh is really clever. And the Rams have played their ass off. They're not very good. But this is a lot in a rivalry game. I'm taking the six, sharper square. I love this.

It's totally sharp. And I love that you're doing this. because in the weeks past, last week, what did I beg you to do? I beg you to take the Broncos at plus 12.5 against the Chiefs. Because sometimes you bet on the bad team and you bet on the bad team that's coming off the huge, huge loss. The Rams just lost by three touchdowns. Since 2016, teams off of a loss of three touchdowns, 61% against the spread. teams that are eliminated

in the final two weeks of the season playing teams that have a shot to make the playoffs since in the past 32 years they cover it a 62% clip so all these are basically saying the same thing the Seahawks are overinflated they beat the Jets last week

the Jets are a team that everybody was in love with the Rams are underinflated for lack of a better term So you got a little bit of value here. Take the rents. Hold your nose and do it. I know. And then watch it.

By the way, watch it. Enjoy it. Feel the satisfaction. I don't know if you ended up playing the Broncos or not this past week when I begged you to do it and you gave me that face. You know, you get like, I'm telling you. Watch this game. In the first five minutes of that Broncos game, I knew I was covering.

You're going to watch this game. You're going to be like, I love covering. I love watching cover it. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all,

embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying.

Yep, that's me, Clivert Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment

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refund issued as non-witrable site credit that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook. Fandul.com. Gambling problem, 1-800 next step or text next step to 5334-2-Arizona, 188-8-8-9-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-1-7 or visit CETK, Connecticut. Connecticut, 1-800-G, or visit Fand-Duel. com slash RG in Colorado, Indiana, Georgia, and Virginia.

1-78-7-7-1-1-1-7-1-1-7-1-1-7-1-1-7-1-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-1-1-7-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-6-9 in New York, Tennessee, Redline, 1-800-89-9-7-8-8-9 Tennessee, visit 1-800-gambler.net in West Virginia. So the last week, they put all these division rivalry games out. The NFL did this on purpose. They know they matter, and you don't mail it in against the division rival. So the lines are getting four and a half at Lambo. So what's interesting in Green Bay's four-game winning streak, three of the teams are awful, and the Vikings are the luckiest overvalued team.

and the truth is Aaron Rogers in this four game winning streak. His quarterback rating is 88. He has four touchdowns and two picks. It's a rivalry game. Too much firepower. I'm going to take the Lions plus four and a half, sharper square.

Totally sharp. Love it. Here's one thing I would say to you that makes this interesting. And I love what the NFL is done with the schedule the way they've remade it so that you do get these division rivalry games at the end of the year

that really have meaning. Boy, did they screw up the timing of all these games. So by the time the world, Lions play, they're going to know if they're in the playoffs or not. So they're either playing spoiler or they're playing to play in the playoffs. But like as a better, it makes you reevaluate. I love the Lions at four and a half. Go ahead and play them. But I do think if we know by the time this game is kicking off that the Lions are going to be a spoiler, it's very possible. This line goes

higher because people who don't think about this from a betting point of view might say, okay, the Lions are out of the playoffs, they're not going to be as motivated. That's why these sort of elimination scenarios matter so much at the last two weeks for betters. Packers line will go up. You might be able to get the lions for six, six and a half. All right. This is almost a pick-um, Dolphins minus one.

So generally, if a team lays an egg, I like them the next week. That's my rule. Jets laid an egg. But I look at this Dolphins team. at home. They've got weapons. I like them. They don't ask their quarterback to do much. Now, Skyler Thompson gets a week of reps. I think I'm going to take Miami minus one, sharper square. No consensus here. I mean, if you're going by, if you're going by precedent, you take the jets. Right. You've got a great defense. They feel like they know they blew it. Robert Sala has

said as much. They feel really just. frustrated. This is a chance to spoil somebody else's season, a division rivals season. And then they are playing for pride, right? So there are those elements, but also we have the two things I just talked about it. Jets are out of it. Dolphins have a shot. Jets just got, you know, basted by the Seahawks in a way that they didn't expect to. So you got a couple scenarios here where they're playing to the Jets side. But I wouldn't, I wouldn't make this a, you know, I got to get to 55% bet. I'll throw one at you. I fell in love with this one today. I didn't know about the Bills minus seven. Now good news with Dhammer Hamlin. This is going to be uplifting

for the Bills. They are now hearing that he's talking. He's got eye contact. He's going to make it. He's recovering quickly. This is a strong, emotional boost. They are a significantly better team. Okay. Now kind of, because of that game cancellation, fresh and ready to go, they're a much better team than New England. I think I'd lay the seven sharper square. I like the bills here.

So the line was seven and a half. It's moved down. I don't think there's a huge consensus to be taking the bills, if anything, the wise guys will be playing the Patriots. The Patriots still have a pretty good defense, and the bill's offense has been very inconsistent. So it's not a game that's getting a lot of attention because of everything you just discussed emotionally. It's too hard to predict. And you also don't know at this point, the bill's finished number one. Are they getting home field?

Are they taking a buy? Is it a neutral site game? How was all that going to factor into it? What is the motivation for that? Do they just want to get out of the game, get into the playoffs healthy? The Patriots have more to play for. I think the line is way too big. So the lean is the Patriots.

All right. For the first time in a long time, Broncos plus three is the side. the chargers are locked into the playoffs. They have multiple players who have gotten healthy but have a history of getting dinged up, Bosa, James, the safety, and their offensive line. I think the chargers rest a lot of starters. I think the game, this regular season game means more for the Broncos, put good stuff on tape, an embarrassing year.

I'm going to take Denver plus three sharper square. So the good news is you're totally sharp. This game was at three and a half. I loved it. We talked about it on the fifth. favorites earlier in the week on Tuesday. We're like, you got to take this at three and a half. It's the right side. Forgetting all the things you said. If this was three and a half in week 15, I would have taken the Broncos because the Chargers are not a team that plays well when they're

ahead. They're not a team you can count on to cover. Their offense has struggled. So you would be taking the Broncos. The problem is the line is now Chargers plus two and a half because of everything you just said, there is an expectation that the Chargers are going to be resting guys. It's another one of those games where by the time it kicks off, you know, the Chargers know whether they're going to be in the playoffs or not. So if you really like, if you think the Chargers are going to need this game for some kind of playoff seating, you take the Chargers right now. If not, you stay away from it because you already missed the value on the Broncos. Okay. All right. I always end.

with a game I'm willing to be talked into, I would take the Raiders plus seven and a half. It's now up to nine and a half. Odds brought to you by a Fandul against the Chiefs. Chiefs don't have anything ready to play for. I do worry about teams that play the Niners the following week are all beat up. But I do think Jared Stidham, tape wants to look good. Josh McDaniels wants to hit into the off season.

Positive vibes. Played the Niners well. Played the Chiefs well. I would take the Raiders. Sharper Square, talk me into it. Oh, it's totally sharp. I'm 100%. I think I've bet the Raiders at 9 and a half.

But for me, it's an auto plate against Patrick Mahomes anytime he's a touchdown of a favorite of more than a field goal. Since 2020, in the middle of November, including playoffs, 9 and 24 as a favorite of more than a field goal against the spread, right? So this year he's 3 and 9. We've got a very, very solid sample size from which to make these kinds of decisions.

And like we did it last week with the Broncos against the Chiefs. Like I'm just not going to play Mahomes as a nine and a half point favorite on the road for that matter. Finally, a game that I have completely missed on. I don't know why I think it's Cowboys at Commanders. It's probably not. Tell me the game, Millman, I have completely whiffed on. Are you ready? Oh, God.

Don't tell me Panthers Saints, I'll throw up. No, although I will tell you that it's really interesting. We talked a lot about Panther States on the faves, and we did our sharp call segment where the Wise Guys call in and sort of give us their opinions on games that we were talking about where they think we're wrong. They're loading up on the Saints. You know, this line got up from, it was at three and a half.

Wise guys took the Panthers at three and a half. Then it got back up to four with professional betters loving the Saints. So it's a really interesting game. I have no opinion on this game. Why do they love them? Why do they love them? I think they feel like their defense is incredible. And they have not, like teams have just not been able to breach 20 points, 15 points against

this defense. It's gotten better and better and better. And I think they feel like Andy Dalton is serviceable enough against a Panthers defense that is decent against their run but not great against the pass. And so I think they think there's an opportunity there. All right. But it's not the game that I want to talk about. Cleveland Browns plus two and a half against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Let's just do it, man. Let's be betting buddies. Let's turn it on. Let's know that it's going to be very low scoring. These teams score about 15 points a game. I'm not even saying that. So you're taking the Browns because of that you get the points? Yeah.

Take the Browns. In these division games, they are always close in the, AFC North. The Steelers defense is amazing. The Browns have been improving with Deshawn Watson. I know it doesn't look like it, but last week he did play a lot better. He had some more accurate throws to Amari Cooper. You're also looking at one of these elimination scenarios. The Steelers, they got something to play for. The Browns don't. So you've got a team that historically, in this situation is covering it a 60% clip. Take the Browns.

Oh, yo, yo, yo, yo. Colin, I guarantee you follow my advice. You'll close at 55%. So I'm at 54.7%, which is I always say I'm betting on Thursday. If I bet on Monday, I'd be at 56%. I think I'd give myself a percentage and a half if I bet the better line on Monday. I never get the best of the line. No, you don't. You don't at all. You got to make some, you got to make some picks early in the week, right? The Broncos are a perfect example. The Titans

is a perfect example. Like the game was at six and a half. Now the Titans were at six and a half. Now it's at six. The Broncos were at three and a half. Now they're favorites because of various circumstances. The flip side is the Raiders were at seven and a half and now they're at nine and a half. All I'm saying is go with the Browns, go with the Titans, go with the Rams, go with the Lions. By the way, 44-24 Georgia over TCU. I think TCU emptied the emotional bag against Michigan, used disrespect. Now it comes down to you can't reboot that. Georgia's way better. Faced a much tougher schedule. And Michigan, by the way, lost the game as much as TCU won it. They out gained him time of possession. I think Georgia rolls them.

You want to talk about luck, right? We talk about luck on this show all the time, and Michigan had some very bad luck in the first half of that game. And I don't mean luck, like it was unlucky that they threw a pick six. I mean, there were plays in that game that don't line up with what expectations should be, and it changes the entire dynamic of the game. And so I agree with you. I mean, look, Michigan easily could have won that game. Ohio State easily could have beaten Georgia.

I think Georgia is in a spot now where they're like, we are not taking anything for granted. We've seen what can happen, you know, put the pedal to the medal. Here's my question. I've been thinking about this. Do you think Ryan Day, losing twice to Michigan, not making great tactical decisions during the game, should be on the hot seat at Ohio State? No. Do you think, remember years ago, Urban Meyer, I can't remember was he suspended for a year, whatever it was, and Luke Fickle took over that Ohio State team. No, it was between Urban Meyer coming and Luke Fickle took the team over, right? So Luke Fickle stays. He's not in line to get that job, leaves, goes Cincinnati, proves to be an incredible coach, taking three-star talent, getting him into the NFL, turning that team into the only non-power five team. to make to the color football playoffs.

Now he's going to go to Wisconsin. I think it's going to be amazing. And I think in three years, Ohio State is wishing they've been smart enough to keep Luke fickle. You with me or against me? No, I think Luke's going to crush it at Wisconsin. I also think Chip Kelly and Lincoln Riley are going to be a handful. UCLA is quietly crushing in the transfer portal. USC not so quietly is crushing in the transfer portal.

portal. If Harbaugh stays and Luke Fickle and Lincoln Riley and Chip Kelly, those are good coaches. Those are smart coaches. I think if you're a bad coach in the Big Ten when those guys are there, you get exposed very quickly. He's a bad coach now? That escalated. I'm not saying he's a bad coach. I'm just saying if you are a bad coach, could be anybody. That kind of sounds like you said he's a bad coach that slipped out that was kind of punitive there i thought listen you like to create controversy i'm a down the middle guy i'm very controversial you are a very controversial person i go to bed at 840 i'm not controversial at all i eat pop tarts i'm a grown man eating pop tarts i'm not controversial listen i can't even tell you how many things happen after i go to bed i wake up

and the slack messages are so explosive because so much stuff has happened after 9 o'clock. Yeah. I'm going to dinner tonight at 7.45 and West Hartford. I can't believe I'm going to be eating that late. I don't think I've ever had dinner. Oh, I've probably done a corporate dinner at 8 or 9, those dreadful corporate dinners. But that's how I think. Like my dinners are 615 to 630 or I have to cancel.

I just can't do it. I want to be hungry when I wake up in the morning. Yeah. I am. I'm hungry for power. Well, I know. That's why you're a medium- mogul. It wasn't enough. It wasn't enough to be all over the country on every station to dominate the midday airwaves. I had to go dominate podcast too. All right, buddy. Good seeing you. All right, man. I'll see you later.

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Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts,

or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, Embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds.

I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHart podcast. Guaranteed Human.