The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Jags/Jets Instant Reaction, Zach Wilson Cringe + ‘Sharp or Square’ NFL Week 16

Episode Date: December 23, 2022

First, Colin reacts to the Jags grabbing the TNF road W over the Jets with help from another atrocious performance from former #2 overall pick Zach Wilson. Then the Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 16 picks are "sharp" or "square". They look at Commanders/Niners (13:00), Lions/Panthers (16:00), Bills/Bears (22:00), Packers/Dolphins (24:00), Raiders/Steelers (26:00), Patriots/Bengals (29:00), and Eagles/Cowboys (34:00). Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates, and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! #Herd #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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All right, time for an instant reaction on the Jets, Jaguars. I poured a strong drink. This is going to take a while. So first, I have to commend New York football fans. Buffalo fans, giant fans, jet fans. Now, Josh Allen finally arrives about four years ago, and the Bills games are wildly entertaining. but for over a decade, the bills were mostly unwatchable.

And those wonderful fans in Buffalo filled that stadium with less than ideal weather. Giants and Jets fans for a combined, what, 20 years, mostly unwatchable Drek offensively. The fact that Jets fans go to these games, stay at these games, let's have a drink to that. that was gruesome. Zach Wilson's gone from BYU to B.Y.E. Bye. I'm not sure he's an NFL player. I never felt Johnny Mansell was an NFL player.

Never did. I never felt Teebo was an NFL player. I'm not sure Zach Wilson's a backup. I'm not sure he is. Didn't like the pick. Never was a fan. Set it from the beginning. I've had my misses.

This isn't one of them. You know, I want to tell you a story about So I've been in radio for, you know, Fox for five or six years, ESPN 1011, local radio for seven or eight, whatever, about 20, 25 years, whatever that is. I'm not going to tell you the year of the person, but in that span of 20, 25 years, I had an executive come to me once and he was considering hiring a very talented person to do a radio show. and I said to the executive, I said there's a big difference between somebody being a really good guest on a radio show for 10 to 12 minutes and somebody being a host for three hours. This person was a very good guest. And I said, we both like the person. The person's very talented at what they do.

But I said, I don't believe he's a host. I believe he's a great guest. And so, you know, the show, they hired them anyway. And it didn't work out as well as that executive had hoped. And about, I don't know, six months later, at like a Christmas party, I think it was, the exec comes up to me and says, you know, I should have listened to you.

And I said, no, I said, but as somebody who talks to themselves, for hours and hours, I said, you know, June, July, August, September, you know, there are these long stretches where you're just, you've got to be able to just look at a microphone and talk. And I said, when I watch Zach Wilson, I think he was great at his pro day. A lot of these guys are great at their pro day. They're showoffs. They're not built to run a franchise.

Emotionally from Provo, Utah to New York. intellectually, BYU's schedule to the National Football League, physically, Utah's the best opponent you play to the bills. There were so many things this kid who aced his pro day had to overcome. You know, that's why mostly in the history of NFL football, guys from Power 5 schools have done pretty well. Not all the time. Big Ben was terrific. But you were asking him to make a leap from BYU schedule to the NFL. Provo to New York City. He's smaller than you'd like. He is built for a pro day. Johnny Mansell's built for a pro day, especially Zach Wilson. He moves. He's good looking.

The optics are good. He's got a nice arm. And then you put six foot seven and a half offensive lineman in front of him. The pressure of the New York media, cold off and windy weather, sophisticated defenses. It's nothing against BYU, but look at their schedule. You know, they're facing a Power 5 school two, three times a year. It's a lot of really, you know, like second, third tier coaches they go against. Now you're going up against Belichick twice a year and Sean McDermott twice a year. So there were so many asks of him.

The leap was too big. And there's talent there. But, you know, I'm watching Zach Wilson tonight. And it was almost as if when they put in Chris Streveller, a backup in the Canadian Football League, it was as if the offensive line blocked better, the running backs ran harder. It was as if anybody in that huddle the team responded to at a higher level. This is not a shot at Zach Wilson. I feel bad.

I think about this all the time as a sportscaster. What if my son was a quarterback? What if my son was a player? But I don't know if Zach Wilson is a pro football player. I mean, Tim Tebow won a natty. I never thought he was a pro football player. He can win games. You can't build your franchise around him.

So, I mean, Trevor Lawrence facing a better defense on the road. You know, he's a kid that played warm weather college football down in Jacksonville, goes up to New York and is at least competent. Joe Douglas, I think, is a really sharp general manager, and people will criticize him for missing on Zach Wilson. But it's not an exact science. The best football coach ever, Bill Belichick, can't draft skill people. This stuff is hard. I've got what I consider four general managers in the NFL that I text regularly, have lunch with, occasionally talk to fairly regularly. These guys are really smart and they've missed badly on second, third round picks. One of them's missed badly on a first round pick. It happens. It's hard.

There were things about Zach Wilson that, you know, he's got an arm. He's got a little Aaron Rogers to him. But you just have to consider, you know, it's like, I guess, you know, an example I would use is, if, let's say you're a young person and you grow up in or around Los Angeles, San Francisco, Denver, Seattle, pretty big towns, right? And you decide to go to college in New York City. It's an adjustment to go from Denver to New York City. But Denver's a city too, right? If you asked somebody to go from Yuma, Arizona, cross country to New York City to college, the speed, the tempo of the city, the number of people, the density, the crime rates higher. There's got to have your head in a swivel a little bit in New York City, right?

Bigger cities. That's a big ask. As a parent, I would be like, whoa, whoa, whoa. I'm asking him to do too many things. I just think they asked Zach Wilson, maybe it would have worked if he's in Arizona or Jacksonville. Maybe, you know, I don't want to blame anybody here. But Joe Douglas is a really sharp general manager. I think Robert Sala has proven he can really coach defense.

Would you want to tie your career to this? I couldn't do it. I just couldn't do it. And something else to look at tonight. This was not a typical New York weather. It was cold and windy. That's late November, December, early January weather in the Northeast. Everybody's like, oh, it's really windy.

we've all, you know, if you've been around and flown around the country before, we've all flown into New York City, November, December, January, February, it's windy, that plane, there's turbulence, it's rocking. You don't get a lot of sunny 74-degree days with no wind. It just doesn't work. Listen, there's three New York football teams. One's got a star quarterback. One has a total whiff, and one has Daniel Jones. That's about the NFL average. If you take three teams, somebody found a franchise guy, somebody totally whiffed and somebody found kind of a sort of capable guy,

they'll probably move off. I was thinking about this today at the end of my show on FS1. There's only five quarterbacks in the world that if I was a GM and I had them, I would never pick up the phone for even a consideration of a trade. Mahomes,

Allen, Burrow, Justin Herbert, Trevor Lawrence. That's a it in the world. Aaron Rogers at 50 million a year, I'd pick up the phone. Tom Brady at 46, I'd pick up the phone. Kyler Murray attitude, I'd pick up the phone.

Five, it's hard. Joe Douglas is a really, really good general manager. Done a lot of good work in a couple of years. This is not pretty. As far as the Jags, the eight, fans of the Jaguars who are watching this instant reaction, you got your guy, you got one of the five. It's a nice win. Atypical weather for Trevor Lawrence. I thought the Jets would win tonight. I thought it would be ugly, low scoring and the Jets would win. Good for Jacksonville. It's pretty cool.

It's pretty cool. Doug Peterson, listen, I got no agenda with Urban Meyer. That was not good from what I can tell. Doug Peterson has turned this puppy around. These guys are a handful. And Greg CoSell said it today on FS1. You move Trevor Lawrence out of the pocket. It's almost like he's more comfortable. This team is just going to get better and better and better.

Once you get the quarterback right makes life so much easier. I mean, look at the Colts. They've got a lot of things right. They can't get the quarterback right. they're swimming and you know what. I mean, they're drowning. So instant reaction. Hope you liked it.

Jets fans, I'm sorry. All right, coming up, Action Network, CCO, Chad Millman, this is going to be good. Sharper Square, all odds provided by Fandul. Time for Chad Millman, CCO Action Network, all odds provided by fan duel. So it's interesting. Sometimes I'll look at the numbers.

You peruse the numbers and I just see a bunch of things I don't like. There's always one game that jumps out to me. This week I actually saw several I liked. Now at this point, I'm not getting the best number. Commanders getting a touchdown at the

Niners looked very interesting to me because I thought largely they outplayed the Giants. I think they have a talented roster. I can see the 49ers looking ahead. I also think you're going to get a little pushback or a little pullback on Purdy. There's now multiple games on Brock Purdy. There's limitations. Ron Revere has been in this league as a defensive guy for a long time. My gut feeling is it's a little ugly, low scoring. I'd rather get seven and a half. I'll take seven sharper square. Oh my God. you are coming in hot.

The holiday season has you prepped to be very, very sharp. And personally, I feel like this is a gift to me. I feel like all of the teachings are coming back to me tenfold right now. Totally sharp. The wise guys love this game. You mentioned a lot to break down here. And it's worth sort of spending the time on it because it's a really interesting game because it features a commander's team that.

a lot of people feel like they saw get beat in prime time against a Brock Purdy-led Niners team that is the hottest team in the NFL with a quarterback who people are now making all the regular comparisons you make when you've got a guy who comes out of nowhere to do something great. That commander's team should have won that game the other night. They outplayed the Giants. We do this thing at Action Network called the Luck rankings and it categorized. It takes a lot of different sort of factors from the game, puts them all into one bucket and basically says, these teams outperformed expectations, these teams underperformed expectations, based on the plays that defy expectations. Red zone failures, random turnovers, penalty calls, right? The Giants and

the commanders had all of those at opposite ends. The commanders, if you play the game out according to the stats, should have won that game. Meanwhile, they're going on the road. They're playing the hottest team in the NFL. The inflation in this game is massive, right? And Kyle Shannon in this spot tends to play more conservative. He's terrible as a huge favorite. His decision making changes. And you know who Brock Purdy could be? Taylor Heineke, meaning he came in. He's a baller. He makes the right decisions. And then all of a sudden you get film on the guy and you're like, should we go back to Carson Wentz? Do we wish we had Jimmy G? So, yeah, there is a lot of sentiment that loves the commanders.

And one more thing to think about strictly from a bookmaker point of view, they are begging you to bet the commanders. When you have low totals like this and the total is about 38 in this game, the bookmakers are expecting a low scoring game. That's what they're telling you. Low scoring games with pretty big numbers in terms of the spread tend to play to the underdog. The bookmakers are giving you a couple of points here because they want you to bet on

commanders because all the tickets, all the squares, they're coming in on the Niners. Great call, Colin, great call. I wish the number was three, similarly to the commanders. The number's not ideal. But I think it's pullback time for the Lions. The Panthers defensive front is pretty interesting. Darnold's always been better when he's pretty comfortable. Sam on the road, Sam and Bad Weather, get out of here.

But this feels low scoring. You're getting to the point with the Lions now that the casuals, that the squares are jumping in on the Lions. To this point, they're a better story than a team. Carolina is a way better team than a story. I'm going to take the home team plus two and a half, sharper square. Oh, my God, Colin, it's like you're in my head. you've been in my notes that I've been sort of collecting all day. The first thing you said is the

most important thing. You like it better at three. If you can find this number at three, what I would recommend to people is you wait because as you noted, the public is coming in hard on the lions. Very possible come Sunday, this line gets back up to three. But the wise guys do like the Panthers here. The Panthers since Sam Darnold has been playing have just been a better, more consistent, more predictable team. They're sixth against the pass in DVOA since week 10. Their sack rate over the past six weeks has improved. You've got Jared Goff who struggles against pressure, struggles away from home when he's

outside. You look at that Jets game, it's another one similar to the commander's game. The Jets should have won that game. And if not for that fourth and inches passed to a backup tight end who scores a touchdown from 55 yards away, the lions struggle to score six points on offense. So you're completely on the right side here. See if you want to get, see if you can get the three on Sunday or Saturday, I mean. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way,

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Okay, I like the Bears last week. I liked them again, plus 8 and a half with the bills. Bills come off a highly emotional divisional game. It could be minus 15 degrees in Chicago. I think the Bears can match. matchup in the trenches where the Bill's O line outside of center is not great. And their defensive lineman, Ed Oliver, pushed around against Miami. They ran for almost 190 yards.

Bills probably win. I think the Bears are playing hard. A lot of young players, stuff's being put on film, new GM, new coach. They're still being graded. I would take the Bears plus eight and a half on an ugly game, sharper square. Totally sharp. This game opened at nine and a half. It got bet down to nine, got bet down to eight and a half.

The wise guys still like it. We've talked about this, I'd say, the past three weeks, almost a month, we talked about taking the Rams as big dogs. We talked about taking, I think it was against Seattle. It was like eight and a half. We talked about taking the Broncos as big dogs against the chiefs that covered. Last week we talked about taking the Bears as big. Big Dogs against Philly.

Forget about what you're seeing on the field. All your analysis is right. This is about betting, right? And sometimes betting is not about the field. It's about the number. And we've talked about this stat. The past six years, when you've got teams that have a really high winning percentage, playing teams that would have a really low winning percentage,

the team with a low winning percentage covers about 60% of the time. And the reason is because of basic gambling math. Bookmakers set a number that has really, high for the team that has been playing really, really well all season long because they know the public is going to come in and bet it no matter what. They don't care what's happening on the other side. They'll move the number a little bit. Only if the wise guys come in so hard, they feel like they have to move the number because they see that they set it a little bit too high. It's going to cost them a little bit of cash. But the wise guys are on the bears here.

I'm going to tell you a favorite I really like. So I believe extra time With good coaches matters a lot. Bowl games, off a buy in the NFL. I think we have ourselves a borderline football genius in Mike McDaniel, who completely out-game planned and out-schemed Sean McDermott. Time of possession. Shut down Stefan Diggs. Had 190 yards rushing.

One time of possession. They outplayed the bills. Two days extra prep. Packers on Monday night. The Dolphins were 5 and O against non-playoff teams, 0 and 3 against playoff teams on the road. They come back home for a non-playoff team. Green Bay is not beating Miami, Minnesota, and Detroit. This is a team that can't stop the run at all.

I get the sharpest young coach in the game, two are now comfortable with a disappointing season-long pass rush. I'm taking Miami and in fact I never do this on Blazing 5 30 to 17 they went by two touchdowns I know it's square

but it's fun anyway sharper square all right so I know you like to ski I know you like to get out into the wilderness you're skiing over your tips

on this one okay going going 30 to 17 calling out a number What are you doing? Why would you give more than you have to? The wise guys love the Packers.

Okay. This game opened to five and a half, got bet down to five, got bet down to four and a half, got bet down to four, got bet down to three and a half. I will tell you, three and a half seems to be the floor for this game. When it gets to three and a half, the professionals come back in, immediately got bet up to four. So this is about a number situation, not what's happening on the field. The reason they like the Packers is because five and a half is a really big number for this

Miami team that has struggled of late. And we talked about this probably a month ago. We saw Miami was going to have to go on the road. They were going to have to play San Francisco. They're going to have to play Los Angeles. They're going to have to play Buffalo. And I think what a lot of wise guys feel is that those teams showed a blueprint for beating Mike McDaniels.

You're jamming the Dolphins receivers trying not to let them get ahead of steam and get downfield. The Packers defense is not very good, especially against the run. So what they are good at is in their defensive backfield, defending against the pass, Zaire Alexander made the Pro Bowl. That is a huge advantage for the Packers. That's why the Wise guys start to like this team. I also feel like the Packers have not been a complete offensive team this year,

and you're starting to get comfortable with Watson, Romeo Dobbs coming back. Fair. I think that they feel this is their opportunity to get to the playoffs. I think you'll get a competitive game. I don't think it'll be a 13-point win for the Dolphins. The wise guys like the number at anything four and above.

Okay, so now I always close with two things. First of all, there's a game I'm on, I can be pushed in or out of. And it's Raiders plus three at Pittsburgh, the number on Fandul minus. two and a half three. I've said this for weeks. I think Josh McDaniel's going to get it right. I like him. There are a lot of one possession games. My knock on him is he gets conservative sometimes with a lead. But I just don't think Pittsburgh is good enough to swallow three points.

You tell me where I should go. I'm interested in what you, what side you would take. So the line has moved to two. And when I was at three, it was a pass. At two, I kind of like the Steelers. I think their defense is really, really good. And that's been what's keeping them alive in the second half of the season. I'm a big Kenny Pickett fan. I felt like he was a complete gamer when he came in for Mitch Trubisky and got them close in games against the Jets team. Let's look at that first game. He played against that Jets team. He almost had them win that game against the Jets team that we clearly think is much better than we thought, right? So, That's number one.

Number two, he had that by week and came back and was significantly better than he had been prior to the buy. So all of a sudden, he's getting comfortable. He was making plays for this team just as an athlete. So now he's coming back. With this defense in this weather, an emotional weekend in Pittsburgh, 50th anniversary of Immaculate Reception, Frank O'Harris dying this week. That is a town that gets behind this team. I would like to be a short home favorite against the Raiders and be the Steelers this weekend.

Finally, a game that may be gross, I haven't mentioned, but you have a strong opinion at the action network on it. Not really. These are always grotesque. And by the way, I bet some of these and I've done pretty well. It works out. How about the New England Patriots at plus three and a half against the Cincinnati Bengals? Gross. It's gross. And listen, I have loved the Bengals all season long, loved them even more.

Not since Joe Burrow started to get more comfortable and sort of play out of the rust, but really since DJ Reader came back, that team has just been consistently better. And I've been betting them often. in spots where you normally wouldn't want to bet them. This week, the pads are at the lowest point you're going to get them. And the Bengals are at the highest point you're going to get them. And we talk about what the wise guys look at isn't so much the final score of a game. They look at the yards per play in a game. They look at the randomness in a game.

I mentioned the luck rankings earlier, right? The Bucks were dominating that game against the Bengals and they had four turnovers. They were up 17-0 in the first half. You're right. In course of the game, the Buccaneers had more yards per play, and that's a key metric.

That's not gross yards, right? Gross yards really indicates a team could be coming back. They gained 500 yards because they were passing every play, and the other team was running it and playing out the clock, right? Yards per play is a really good indicator of which team sort of was more successful offensively.

So you had that with the box against the bangles. Now, Trey Henderson, he's got a broken wrist, even if he plays, he's going to be playing with the club. Sam Hubbard, also on the defensive line, is out. And the defensive line are the reasons why I've loved back in the Bengals the past few weeks. I think there's going to be a lot of wind in the game that potentially neutralizes the Bengals passing attack. Wow, this is why you're a sharp.

God, this is, how did I overlook this? This is why I'm a dullard, a dim bulb, a square. God, it's so obvious and just right over my head. this line moved from three and a half to three. And so I think where you got to hope for is that it goes back to three and a half because people are going to come in on the bangles. Like this is a big pros Joe's game. So getting the hook here is really important because most wise guys have this power rated at

three or less. And look, I know it feels like a half point doesn't mean anything. but to wise guys on a key number like three, it means everything. Look at the text. Look at the Chargers and Titans game last week. Like, the game landed on three. If you had the Chargers minus two and a half, you were golden. If you had the Titans plus three and a half, you were golden.

Like that, on key numbers like that, it kind of means everything. And, you know, like you pointed out for the Lions, Bengals are at the peak of the market. Peak, bro. Is it possible I could just buy my way into, be in a sharp because I'm not going to be able to do it based on data and takes. You can. You buy the points every week. You just buy an extra half a point every single week and you're golden.

Boy, that was a good one. For anybody listening, that was really good. That is why the favorites podcast is great. That New England take is your best of the year, honestly. Well, I can't believe everything you said. You were like a magician. I was looking over to the left with the cards and you pulled a pigeon out of your suit. And I'm like, how the fuck of he do that?

That was literally, I'm just, I'm in awe. You know a magician's good when you do it and you're like, oh, he totally got me. I can't believe I overlooked it. What? Listen, it is totally gross. Like, you see that we first talked about this on the favorites on Tuesday. And we were having a conversation. and it all makes sense,

but I was really uncomfortable with it. And then today, when we recorded the Thursday edition, we do this thing called Sharp Calls where the wise guys who were connected to will call us and react to the conversation we had. And all of them were talking about that Patriots Bengals game. Like that was the play that everybody, that game, and then Dallas and the other game we didn't talk about,

which is interesting, obviously is Dallas and Philadelphia. Well, I would take Philadelphia. That would be the side. My concern is Greg Kosell told me on Thursday, he said, they're not going to run the same offense mostly with Gardner Minshu. And he worries about in a short week, do you just say, we're not changing our offense? We're going to kind of run what we run. Because I think Philadelphia is clearly the better team.

CoSell also said this. It was one of his gems of the year. He said when you watch film, C.D. Lam's, not a great one. Schultz is productive, not a great tight end. Gallup's not the same player. That Dallas is skill people because their Dalluses are driven up in the market, but they really don't have a starting ace on the mound.

C.D. Lamb is like a great two or an average one. Dallas, by the way, Dallas is going to have to go to either San Francisco, bad, bad spot, or at Philadelphia. We all know how this is going to end, right? Now, I would take Philadelphia in the points. Is that the sharp side? It started as the sharp side. But there's been, it's like, talk about split.

When I say like there's no consensus on a game when we're talking about the Panthers, it's because it's like you take the plus three and when it's not plus three, maybe you take the plus two and a half, but you kind of wait until it gets back to plus three, but people aren't passionate about it. There's passion on the Cowboys and the Eagles right now. And when this game was at six, people were buying the Eagles hard at plus six. You saw it get down to five and a half. And then when Jalen Hertz was officially announced he was out, wise guys all started talking about the Cowboys again.

And I think part of it is they're looking at the injury reports, right? And who's practicing for the Eagles? And there's a lot of guys sitting out this week. And Gardner Minshu missed practice time because of Mike Leach's funeral. So I think that from a wise guy perspective, and maybe they're overthinking. it, are the Eagles going to take this week off? If I think they're going to have to see the Cowboys in the playoffs like you just mentioned, do they not want to show anything special?

Jalen Hertz isn't going to play. They're in pretty good position as it relates to the conference standings. Is this a game where they're not going to not show up, but this is a rest week? So I think that's why the wise guys started coming into the Cowboys. That said, I bet the Eagles are plus five and a half. not buying out of it. Meaning I'm not going to bet the Cowboys. I'm not going to hedge it in any way. So what's the number at now? I think it's back up to six. I think when sort of it became official with Minchu, it went back up to six because some wise guys started playing. They started

playing the Cowboys. Let me scroll through here. Six points I would take Philadelphia, even though I think your reasoning is right. Six is too many points for that defense. Interesting. It's now down to four and a half. So now Dallas is interesting. See, now Dallas is the side. Now it becomes interesting, Colin. And now, if it continues to move down, like, I've got it at five and a half. The numbers at four. I'd probably keep waiting. I would try to find a very thin middle if I can get it at three and a half. Like, does it continue to go down? For me, it's a wait and see. If you haven't bet it yet, take Dallas it for it. But that's where it gets interesting. That's good. That's good. Strong. All right, buddy. Chad Millman Action Network.

All right, man. Listen, have a great holiday. I'll try to. Yeah, I haven't been sick in a long time. So everybody's getting sick in L.A. I'm just getting sick of L.A. So it's the same thing. Well, you can fly away. You can go anywhere. I'll see you later. That's right. Bye. Got you. the Draymond Green Show. I brought Draymond Green into the volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports, unique perspective, understands behind the rope, also chops up with guests like Gary Payton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady.

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