The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Jets "Dressed Up As A Good Team" For Halloween, Don’t Bail On C.J. Stroud, Sharp Or Square - Betting NFL Week 9

Episode Date: November 1, 2024

Colin reacts to the Jets upsetting the Texans on Thursday Night Football! He breaks down why the game was a great spot for the Jets against a shorthanded Texans team and why the Jets could control the...ir own destiny when it comes to winning a wild-card spot for the playoffs (3:00)  Then Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for week 9 of the NFL slate.   20:30 - Dolphins vs Bills 22:45 - Cardinals vs Bears 25:30 - Commanders vs Giants 27:00 - Rams vs Seahawks 30:00 - Vikings vs Colts 37:30 - Broncos vs Ravens  42:45 - Cowboys vs Falcons 43:45 - Chargers vs Browns 46:00 - Packers vs Lions   (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!  #Volume #HerdSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
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Starting point is 00:00:39 I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English. Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. 84 was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people.
Starting point is 00:00:57 Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifers Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard,
Starting point is 00:01:27 but celebrated. So let's get to it. Listen to the Clifford show on the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.
Starting point is 00:01:46 Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:02:09 Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology of taun tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith rule of two. Listen to stuff to blow your mind on the iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts,
Starting point is 00:02:38 or wherever you get your podcasts. The volume. All right, basketball season is here, and there's only one place to go for tickets, and you know where that is, game time. They have a new feature called GameTime Picks, filters out the fluff to show you only incredible deals on great sales. seat so you don't have to waste time searching through thousands of tickets. When I want to go to a
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Starting point is 00:03:47 and he chews him up and spits him out. And I'm taking more and more favorites these days, as I think you do get to a point in the season where the better teams separate, the better coaches separate. Everybody gets banged up. It's a war of attrition. At the this point. You see all these players dropping. Sometimes Devonte Adams, the player goes out, comes back in. He did, had a touchdown. So the Jets beat the Texans 2113 on Halloween the Jets dressed up as a pretty good football team. Aaron Rogers, I thought played, especially, you know, in the second half, I thought he played pretty well. I've seen that so many times this year where a quarterback Brock Purdy against the Cowboys, Russell Wilson, a couple of times, Aaron Rogers
Starting point is 00:04:25 tonight, where it just, they just can't get it right in the first half. And then they just, they get warmed up. And I thought Aaron played a really good second half. You know, when you have Breece Hall, when you have Devante Adams, when you have Garrett Wilson, you know, those are real weapons. You know, if you can get decent protection. Aaron had a nice run tonight. It got called back because of a holding on the rookie from Penn State. But that was a really nice run.
Starting point is 00:04:50 He had 211 yards, 22 or 32, 3 TDs, no picks. I like the Jets tonight. That was one of my stronger plays. It would have been my first or second strongest play if it was on Sunday. And I think the reality of this game, it was a really bad spot for a beat-up Texans team that can't protect C.J. Stroud. So the Jets had eight sacks tonight, which is about double what teams had been getting against Houston. But they're down to Tank Dell and a bunch of third and fourth level receivers. So it was a good spot for the Jets. And what's interesting for the Jets, and this is why this win matters. So, yeah, two of their wins, short week at home, Patriots and Texans. But now, think about this, it's an advantage because the Jets are not going to win a division. We know the bills are going to win the division. The Ravens will eventually win their division.
Starting point is 00:05:37 The Chiefs will win their division. Colts, Texans will go back and forth, but this is key. The teams, the Jets only hope to get into the playoffs is as a wild card team. And right now, unless they go on a losing streak, Pittsburgh looks like it will be one of those wild card teams, but there's two other wild card spots. And the good news is the Jags could be one of those teams. The Jets play them. The Colts could be one of those teams. Jets host them in a couple of weeks.
Starting point is 00:06:03 The Texans could be one of those teams. The Jets just beat them. So it looks like to me the three playoff teams in the AFC we know are Bills. Ravens will make it. They're just too good unless Lamar got hurt and the Chiefs. And then you're going to be battling the Colts, the Jags, the Texans, the Chargers, the Steelers for three wildcard spots. and you've already got a W over the Texans and you get the Colts at home.
Starting point is 00:06:30 You also get the advantage when you play on Thursday night. You get four days extra rest against your next opponent. That's Arizona. So they'll have to travel out to the desert in Arizona, but you've got extra rest. Arizona plays a very physical Chicago Bears team, a really good defense for the Chicago Bears off a humiliating loss. So I'm sure the Bears, you know, that's going to be a physical game against Arizona. you're going to be more rested, more prepared with a veteran quarterback and Aaron Rogers coming
Starting point is 00:07:00 off a very good outing. The more he plays with the Bonte Adams, the better it's going to work. So they've got the pieces. I don't think they're a brilliantly coached team. But I've said this before, there's three really good teams in the AFC. Then, you know, it's pretty mushy in the wildcard race. Miami's not as good as we thought. Chargers just, they have very limited firepower, unless they make a trade at the deadline, the Chargers are going to be in a bunch of close games. If they play the Jets tomorrow, it would be a close game. I mean, the Chargers just can't, they can't beat anybody badly. They don't have any playmakers.
Starting point is 00:07:33 Ladd-McConkie, the rookie, is like a two. He's twitchy and clever, but he's not a burner. He's not an over-the-top guy. It doesn't have huge separation in the NFL. So, I mean, it's, what do I think about the Jets? Well, they ran for about 100 yards tonight. Aaron was comfortable. Aaron had time to throw.
Starting point is 00:07:52 and the schedule works out. Extra rest for Arizona. Colt, Seattle at home, Rams later at home. I mean, only one team the Jets play. The rest of the way right now has a winning record, the Buffalo Bills. And they're not one of the division
Starting point is 00:08:07 so they don't have to worry about Buffalo. So it's all right in front of you. Listen, I like C.J. Stroud, but he's down to second and third tier receivers. They can't protect him. Joe Mixon's a hell of a player. That was his number one weapon tonight. But Jets win 2113.
Starting point is 00:08:21 and, you know, I was thinking about this. I was talking to J-Mack on the phone tonight. He was out with his kids doing Halloween. So I live in a place without a lot of kids coming up. So I went out for a walk and saw all the kids in the neighborhood out, having a good time. But when I came back, I was talking to J-Mack. And, you know, New York has just had a really rough stretch for a decade in sports.
Starting point is 00:08:40 I mean, the Yankees, it really wasn't competitive against the Dodgers. It really wasn't. They won a single game. Both the Padres and the Mets matched up better against the Dodgers than the Yankees did. The Yankees won one. game, and it was a bullpen game by the Dodgers. They went 0-and-2 in the games in which Garrett Cole pitched. They're just, you know, again, they beat, they can beat the Guardians. But the Yankees, they just don't match up to the Dodgers, and the Dodgers were beat up. They'll be a significantly better and
Starting point is 00:09:08 healthier team next year. The Giants and the Jets, at least one of them has Aaron Rogers and Quinn and Williams. You know, the Knicks were a nice story, but I don't think they're in the class of the Celtics. So it's been rough. I mean, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's, You know, the Mets have a rich owner and Francisco Lindor is a remarkable player, but they have good players and one great player. So, I mean, people, you know, you think to yourself, why does anybody care about the Jets? If you're in New York, I mean, because of Devante Adams and Garrett Wilson and Aaron Rogers, you know, they have their moments. And like in the second half tonight, they have their moments where they look competitive. So, you know, here's the good news for New York.
Starting point is 00:09:48 Colts, Jags, Texans, all these teams that they can make up ground and if they beat them head to head in the wildcard race and the AFC, I don't think they're going to get there. I'll still stand by my prediction. I think they're an eight or nine win team. But I do think Devonte Adams, like tonight in that second half, and you can see the more he and Aaron play together. And what I really liked about Aaron tonight is he was really into it. He was really into it. He had good energy in the second half. he was pumping his fist, he was fired up, and that's what you worry about with Aaron.
Starting point is 00:10:22 He can be a very moody guy. And I've said he's always, I had an NFL coach tell him, a pretty famous NFL coach once say, he's just Jay Cutler with talent, is that he's kind of a moody, prickly, difficult guy. The differences Aaron can really, when he has time to throw, really can spin it. And tonight he was in a groove, he had great energy, he played inspired, and it was fun to watch. The first half wasn't fun. but 21-13 Jets win and it's something. Eight sacks, ran the ball effectively.
Starting point is 00:10:53 Aaron had a good night. Now you have extra prep time against the Arizona Cardinals. I love this time in the NFL season because it does feel like the games get a little bit easier to predict. Just because it's statistically defenses get hurt more than offenses. And, you know, so you get a separation now. You get some finger pointing in the bad locker rooms. The quarterbacks and the best coaches feel like they separate. I don't think the Jets have one of the better coach teams.
Starting point is 00:11:22 But I do think offensively, and that's what this leads, nobody's stopping anybody defensively. I still think the Jets missed Robert Saul on that end. But offensively, you got to be able to score. And you start looking at the Jets pieces. If Aaron's healthy, it's something. It's not that it's better than the Giants. I mean, there's, there are a lot of teams in worse shape than Air Force shape.
Starting point is 00:11:43 Aaron Rogers, Brees Hall, a decent backup, Alan, the kid from Wisconsin, Garrett Wilson, and Devante Adams. There are a lot of teams in much worse shape than that. And in this point forward, the offenses win in this league. I mean, you go look at January and February, the last three or four years. It's the offenses that separate. Nobody's stopping anybody late. Everybody's all dinged up on that side of the ball. Listen, don't bail on C.J. Stroud.
Starting point is 00:12:13 His last three games, he has a 76 passer rating. You're dealing with second-tier-wide receivers, and there's no protection. And this is like, it's like Sam Darnold. You look at him with the Jets, and you're like, he's terrible. And then you're like, oh, he goes to Minnesota, and he has a good coach, and he has good protection, and he has weapons. And, God, Sam Darnold's pretty good. It's amazing how it looks.
Starting point is 00:12:34 You go watch Brock Prudy without Christian McCaffrey, Debo Samuels banged up. And you're like, ah, what is he? Well, you know, all of a sudden second half last week, he's moving. You know, you watch Brock Pretty now as Jennings gets healthy and McCaffrey comes back. You're going to look at him and go, oh, he's pretty. Folks, there's like one or two guys in this league. Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Patrick Rahomes are about it, where it doesn't really matter who's healthy and who's not. That's about it.
Starting point is 00:13:04 C.J. Stroud, he hasn't reached his peak yet. He probably reaches, he'll go into his prime. after next season. This is year two, next year, year, year three, year four to year nine to ten, six years, prime. Won't have many surgeries at that point, still fresh, now knows the game, knows the coverages. He hadn't even reached this prime yet. So you've got like second and third tier receivers, terrible protection. And it's a defensive head coach. So, you know, he's got a coordinator. But if that coordinator leaves, that's not ideal, Bobby Sloick. So, You know, I just, there's three guys in the world that it doesn't really matter.
Starting point is 00:13:44 They're just going to be wildly productive. Mahomes, Alan Lamar. For guys like C.J. Stroud, he's closer to a Sam Darnold. I think he's a better throw with the football than Sam Darnold. And he's a better athlete and a bigger, stronger version of Brock Purdy. But in the end, there's the three greats. And then a lot of these guys, it's just circumstantial. And he'll be fine when they get Nico Collins back.
Starting point is 00:14:08 Neagle Collins is uncoverable, and they get their offensive line straightened out. But don't sell any stock. We've seen this kid when he has support, and he's really good. Everybody in this league, you know, Baker Mayfield has Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Oh, he's pretty good. And they get hurt. He's not as good. He just lost to Atlanta.
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Starting point is 00:15:58 superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media.
Starting point is 00:16:29 Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need. to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.
Starting point is 00:17:19 Hey, I'm Deanna Maria Riva, actress, mother, lover, and a Gen X woman walking through life one hot flash and hormonal crying jag at a time. You ladies know what I mean. I'll bet you a perimenopausal chin here you do. So let's talk about it. Join me on my new podcast. How hard can it be with Deanna Maria Riva, where I call on my Gen X squads from Ohio to Hollywood, as we name. navigate midlife's most fantastic BS. All of a sudden, I'd had hanginess happening on my own. I was like, what the hell is that? I was married when I had her, so I didn't even consider how empty that nest was going to be.
Starting point is 00:17:53 Mood swings, night sweats, fupas, sex drive. Wait, what sex? Dating at 45. How can it be getting naked at 50 with the new guy? That one's kind of hard now. Well, that's lighting. They say we can't polish a turd, but we're sure going to try. So let's get blunt with laughs, tears or tears of laughter,
Starting point is 00:18:09 and dive into it unfiltered and unbothered and ask, How Hard Can It Be? I cannot believe I'm about to say this out loud in public. Listen to How Hard Can It Be with Diana Maria Riva as part of my Cultura podcast network available on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everyone, it's Ryder Strong and Wilfredel from PodMeets World. And now the PodMeets Twirled podcast.
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Starting point is 00:18:56 I'm just going to remind you. I have watched some Survivor. I obviously haven't watched enough. Did people not like it? Yeah. Just because we? Yeah. We'll be recapping the big conclusion
Starting point is 00:19:07 in the 50th season from the final attempts at gameplay to the desperate please. as a finalist to a bunch of Ha, who, ha, ha, ooh. Ha, ha, ooh. Again, we are experts. So make sure to tune into PodMeets Twirled
Starting point is 00:19:18 for all our Survivor 50 takes. Listen to PodMeets Twirled on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Agency, the ability to know that we're the experts in our own body. On the podcast, cultivating her space, Dr. Dom and Terry Lomax create a space where black women can show up fully and be heard. I wholeheartedly think, you know, you hit 30.
Starting point is 00:19:43 You shouldn't have to share one with anybody. Mm-hmm. From navigating friendships and healing to setting boundaries and prioritizing your mental health. These are real honest conversations. We don't always get to have out loud. Totally unreasonable with different parts of life, right? Like, oh, have all three meals and make sure you're mindful during all of them? Absolutely not.
Starting point is 00:20:04 During one meal, I'm standing. I'm standing and handing my children food. Because healing, empowerment, and resistance. resilience aren't just ideas, their practices. And this Mental Health Awareness Month, there's no better time to pour back into yourself. Listen to cultivating her space on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Time for a tender edition of Sharper Square with Chad Millman, the co-host of the favorites, all odds provided by Draft Kings. I felt pretty good about my picks. I said in week six or seven, I start to just go with quarterbacks.
Starting point is 00:20:39 I think defenses get statistically more beat up, more injured. Quarterbacks are even more important. Teams and locker rooms move off players. More finger-pointing, the better cultures win, the better coaches win, the better quarterbacks win. So there's a couple of big favorites I like this weekend, and I don't normally do that. Let's go to the underdogs, though. Dolphins plus six at the Bills, I like Miami.
Starting point is 00:21:02 Okay. So this has been a series dominated by Buffalo. No question. But they've played very good. They're really feeling themselves. They travel cross-country, now it's back. Miami, two is the first game back off a concussion. They actually controlled that game led by 10 in the fourth.
Starting point is 00:21:20 Usually, quarterbacks off concussions don't play great in the first week. Second week, third week, fourth week, you see improvement. Division rival game really like Miami plus the point, sharper square. Look, it's flipped. It opened at six, moved up to six. moved up to six and a half. The wise guys liked Buffalo at six and a half. And there's been a lot of wise guy money moving this back down to six. It might even get down to five and a half before kickoff. So wise guys are on your side here. They like Miami. They like two or they want to fade the bills
Starting point is 00:21:55 because they've been playing so well. I will tell you, I'll give you the other side of that argument, because I've bet Buffalo at minus six. I will be against the wise guys. I might be against you too. I want to give everybody the opportunity to hear both sides. Tua is terrible against teams that are good that are on the road. Okay? Two and ten straight up, three eight one against a spread, away from home versus winning teams in his NFL career with the Dolphins. Also, the Bill's offense has been top three in the league across the majority of metrics, superficial, advanced metrics, whatever you want to do when it comes to rushing the ball. The dolphins are a terrible tackling team. So from a matchup perspective and a history perspective, I think the
Starting point is 00:22:44 bills have an advantage. But the wise guys, they like what they saw. They feel like two of the second game back after the concussion. He's going to be better. They feel like this Buffalo team, it's a little bit too high. It's inflated because of how well the bills have been playing. So wise guys are with you, Colin, but I'm not. Okay. So I like Arizona. and minus one and a half at home. First of all, Matt Eber Fluse is the worst road coach in the league. Terrible. Terrible. Secondly, Arizona's better. Their personnel offensively is the best kept secret in the league. I love Connor the back. McRide the Tide. Harrison now is getting more consistent. He's a dog. Kyler Murray in the second half was outstanding. And I never trust this team's
Starting point is 00:23:34 consistency and maturity, but I like the staff. I like their fight. Chicago, if you start looking at Chicago, they unraveled last week. They really did. They were lucky to be in a position to lose by Hail Mary. Arizona's a good home team. Iber Flues awful on the road. Arizona minus one and a half, sharper square. Yeah, it's sharp-ish. Like if the wise guys are playing anything here, they're playing Arizona, but it's not primary in the games they're betting. A lot of wise guys I talk to, they kind of want to pass on this game. In a perfect world in a vacuum, they bet on the bears. The bears are more talented offensively.
Starting point is 00:24:18 They're a really good defensive team, and they're really good at rushing the passer, and they're really good in coverage. Now, the challenge for the bears is Montes Sweat didn't practice on Wednesday, has an injured shin. we don't know what his status will be. They're 10 and 5 with Montes Sweat since he joined the team. Okay? Number one, that's really good for pass rush.
Starting point is 00:24:40 Number two, Braxton Jones, their left tackle, he probably isn't going to play, did not practice this week. They were terrible when he left the game last week. Caleb was running for his life. And then they got worse when Bracton's backup came in. And Bracton's backup is not going to be playing this week. So they're scraping the bottom of the barrel there. But here's what's interesting about Kyler. Kyler is great in the chaos.
Starting point is 00:25:03 And what the Bears would create and what their strength is, is creating chaos for quarterbacks because they are so good at rushing the passenger and so good in coverage. So Kyler's strengths actually plays to the bear's strength, which is another reason why the wise guys aren't quite looking to rush to bet this game. And like you, Iberflus, man. And I can't imagine you don't have a theory on this. But as a Bears fan, why draft Caleb Williams?
Starting point is 00:25:29 and then keep a coach who's a defensive coach, who if he doesn't do well this year, you know you're going to get rid of, then you're going to bring in a new coach, and you've basically wasted a year and created bad habits for Caleb Williams, right? So now all of a sudden, Ibruflu's is basically throwing his team under the bus,
Starting point is 00:25:44 saying, we practice this play, the Hail Mary every single week. I don't know why the guys didn't do it right. That hasn't sat well, so people don't know what they're going to get with the Bears this week. Okay, you know I love the magic number four, four and a half, and five.
Starting point is 00:25:59 I take the favorites. Washington thoroughly outplayed Chicago. And Chicago is a pretty decent team. The Giants now, as we talked about, no Andrew Thomas, Daniel Jones, visibly frustrated during the week, two-point conversion against the Steelers. They're off him. Everybody in the building knows it. It just feels like a horrible environment. The owner has supported the GM and the coach and not the quarterback. I think Washington's a really good team. I think they're for real.
Starting point is 00:26:25 I think now Jaden Daniels is healthier. I didn't feel he was at 100% last weekend. I would take Washington minus four. I know it's a division rivalry game, Sharper. Square. No, the wise guys are with you. They're betting, they're betting on Washington. And it's a, normally they wouldn't, right? A division game, you're getting a home dog at more than a field goal. You want to bet the home dog. And we've got other games in which that is a scenario this week. But right now, like three and a half for a team that has lost its left tackle, he was the only
Starting point is 00:26:58 reason that you ever felt comfortable betting on this team because he was so good at stabilizing that line. And now Tyrone Tracy, who has really been an offensive weapon out of the backfield for them, the running back out of Purdue, he had a concussion, not likely to play. You're right about Daniel Jones. I think it's only a matter of time before they give him the hook because they owe him, you know, $23 million if he gets injured next season. So I think pretty soon this experiment with Danny Dimes is going to end. Okay. I think the Rams are really a good football team when healthy. In fact, You go back to last year when Stafford, Kairn Williams, Puka, and Cooper Cup play their seven and three in their losses at Detroit and overtime, at Baltimore and overtime. Offensive coach and Matt Stafford played on Thursday.
Starting point is 00:27:47 Extra time to prepare. They only have to give up one at Seattle. This is a coach and a quarterback mismatch. They are now healthier. And like the Packers offensively, the Rams defensively are crazy young. Young teams grow. They become better and better every few weeks. The Packers' offense just getting better every two games.
Starting point is 00:28:13 This Rams defense is high draft picks, hungry, no stars, fast, young, and collectively very good. I think the Rams put away the Seahawks here, Sharper Square. Colin, you and I right now are going into the Foxhole on the Los Angeles Rams. The wise guys hate this bet. The Rams opened it as one and a half point underdogs. They are now almost two and a half point favorites. The wise guys, they love Seattle at two and a half. I'm with you.
Starting point is 00:28:47 And Simon Hunter, my co-host, he's with you. Like, we feel like we are alone in the foxhole betting this game and we don't see what other people are seeing in Seattle. You've said this before. Sean McVeigh, for all the bells and whistles, all the motion on this team, he likes to run the ball. And Kyron Williams has been a top five running back in the NFL the past season and the half. And he has been amazing since this season began, especially against team like Seattle,
Starting point is 00:29:17 which are bottom third in all the rushing stats that matter. They're total rushing yards, yards per carry, EPA per rush. Like they are not a very good rush defense. there's still a team that's developing its talent. Pook is back. He's a great run blocker. You saw that last week. He's just so freaking big.
Starting point is 00:29:37 Cooper cut back. Stafford is great in these situations. He's a quarterback. At the end of the day, like you've said, there are quarterbacks that you just don't want to bet against. And sometimes I make my decisions about who I want to bet on based on how uncomfortable am I going to be if I am betting the other side and this quarterback has the ball in the last two minutes. Matthew Stafford's top five on that list.
Starting point is 00:30:01 So you and I, brother, if it's in the blazing, you're going to be in a foxhole. I'm going to be in the foxhole. We'll be in it together. There's a couple of games that are fascinating to me. First of all, I don't know if it's a stayaway game. I think I would take the Vikings at home minus five against the Colts because they're making a quarterback change. Also, I think the Vikings, I think the Rams on the road, and the lions.
Starting point is 00:30:31 Those offenses and those coaching staffs can make teams look very bad. And I think Minnesota's defense, if you go back three weeks, we thought it was pretty good. I think they need to redeem themselves before they get into division play. I think this is a good spot for them. I think they have a quarterback advantage. I think both coaches are really good. But in this spot with a quarterback change, I think Minnesota has to get right. There's real urgency here before they get to the Green Bayes, the Detroit's, the Chicago's in their schedule.
Starting point is 00:31:04 I would take the Vikings minus five sharper square. Yeah, the wise guys have been bet in the Colts. They bet them at six. They bet them at five and a half. If it's down to five, it means they bet them again. The Colts situation is incredibly confusing. Shane Steichen kind of intimated that this was coming from ownership, right? Like you look at Anthony Richardson, completion percentage is not a very good way to judge a developing quarterback.
Starting point is 00:31:33 And there's been a lot of great analysis this week about if you analyze each one of his throws, he's making the choices that are the lower percentage throw, but the higher ROI if they're completed versus eight yard outs that won't get you the first down or 20 yard outs that will get you the first down. And so there's decisions being made there. And Shane Steichen, I'm a huge fan as a coach. The wise guys are on this game because when he became Flacco, they sort of felt a little bit more comfortable that he can manage Brian Flores defense and anything this guy throws at him. And don't forget, the Colts have an elite Russian game. And we talked about this last week.
Starting point is 00:32:10 It's why I liked the Colts against the Texans last week. If you have a really good coach who's a good play caller and you have an elite unit and you're a decent-sized underdog, I'm going to make that play. And that game played out exactly as we expected it to play out with the Colts. They dominated on the ground, right? And they had so, that Jonathan Taylor had more than 100 yards rushing in his first game back. They ran 6.2 yards per carry. Like, they will rely on the running game.
Starting point is 00:32:39 They'll find ways to potentially keep this game close. So it feels a little bit trappy to bet the Vikings. It's not going to be a game that I'm invested in at all. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all,
Starting point is 00:33:05 embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win. I don't care what you're saying.
Starting point is 00:33:25 Yep, that's me, Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment. And the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music.
Starting point is 00:34:00 The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast. It's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger. So if you've ever supported me or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok.
Starting point is 00:34:23 Hey, I'm Deanna Maria Riva, actress, mother, lover, and a Gen X woman walking through life one hot flash and hormonal crying jag at a time. You ladies know what I mean. I'll bet you a perimenopausal chin here you do. So let's talk about it. Join me on my new podcast. How hard can it be with Deanna Maria Riva, where I call on my Gen X squads from Ohio to Hollywood as we navigate midlife's most fantastic BS. All of a sudden, I'd had hanginess happening on my own. I was like, what the hell is that?
Starting point is 00:34:53 I was married when I had her, so I didn't even consider how empty that Ness was going to be. Mood swings, night sweats, fupas, sex drive. Wait, what sex? Dating at 45. How hard can it be? How hard can it be? How can't be getting naked at 50 with the new guy? That one's kind of hard.
Starting point is 00:35:08 Well, that's lighting. They say we can't polish a turd, but we're sure going to try. So let's get blunt with laughs, tears or tears of laughter, and dive into it, unfiltered and ask, how hard can it be? I cannot believe I'm about to say this out loud in public. Listen to How Hard Can It Be with Diana Maria Riva as part of My Cultura Podcast Network available on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, everyone, it's Ryder Strong and Will Ferdell from PodMeets World. And now the PodMeets Twirled podcast.
Starting point is 00:35:43 We're two men who were completely clueless to reality TV, who now have covered Dancing with the Stars, traitors, and we're gearing up for the season finale of Survivor. So yeah, now we're experts. I know we annoyed a lot of our listeners by our... severe lack of survivor knowledge. That is the point of the show. I'm just going to remind you. I have watched some Survivor. I obviously haven't watched enough.
Starting point is 00:36:07 Did people not like it? Like what was just because we? Yeah. We'll be recapping the big conclusion in the 50th season from the final attempts at gameplay to the desperate pleas of finalists to a bunch of ha, who. Ah, ha, ooh.
Starting point is 00:36:20 Again, we are experts. So make sure to tune in a pod meets twirled for all our Survivor 50 takes. to pod meets twirled on the IHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Agency, the ability to know that we're the experts in our own body. On the podcast, cultivating her space, Dr. Dom and Terry Lomax create a space where black women can show up fully and be heard. I wholeheartedly think, you know, you hit 30. You shouldn't have to share one with anybody. Mm-hmm.
Starting point is 00:36:51 From navigating friendships and healing to setting boundaries and prioritizing your mental health. are real, honest conversations. We don't always get to have out loud. Totally unreasonable with different parts of life, right? Like, oh, have all three meals and make sure you're mindful during all of them? Absolutely not. During one meal, I'm standing. I'm standing and handing my children food.
Starting point is 00:37:14 Because healing, empowerment, and resilience aren't just ideas. Their practices. And this Mental Health Awareness Month, there's no better time to pour back into yourself. Listen to cultivating her space on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Okay, here's a game that I would never bet. You know, I take the big number off the board. People try to talk me in the Lions Titans.
Starting point is 00:37:44 Should have. Won't do it. Ravens at home minus nine and a half. Now, Lamar has taken a couple practices off. The Ravens, by adding another receiver, are telling you, listen, We don't have Kansas City's defense or buffaloes. We're going to win by scoring. They want to ramp up this offense.
Starting point is 00:38:02 Their weakness is the back end. Over the top, you can beat them. And Mahomes and Josh Allen might. Herbert might. Bow-Nicks isn't. That's not how they're built. He's not a big, deep ball thrower. He's more agile, mobile,
Starting point is 00:38:18 underneath. Raven's weakness is not going to be exploited by Denver. This is a tough spot. Ravens off a loss. Again, Baltimore on most Sundays, the last two years, has been the knockout artist in this league, blasting teams at home. Not beating them. Blasting, Niners, Miami, like Detroit.
Starting point is 00:38:42 This is a number all swallow. Ravens nine and a half. I know I am as square as a Lego, right? Not this week, brother. Not this week. Like last week, I tried to get you on the Lions. I love the lions. And, like, that was a no-brainer from the get-go.
Starting point is 00:39:00 It didn't matter what the number was going to be. We were betting the lions. The Ravens, the wise guys are coming in on the Ravens. And it's a little bit tricky because Denver's defense is fierce, right? Get great pass rush. Great pass rush. Great against the run. Like, their front four is phenomenal.
Starting point is 00:39:20 But you can also look at it and say they've played not very good teams. They've had a relatively easy schedule. Weaker quarterbacks. Weaker quarterbacks, right? You can look at the Ravens and say, okay, they should be dominating, but they let every team back into it. And look at what James did last week. Look at what Jaden Daniels.
Starting point is 00:39:42 The Ravens were up by 10. The spread was seven and a half. The commanders lost that game by seven because the Ravens let Jaden Daniels get back into it. We've seen it week after week after week. the Ravens give up 17.3 points per game in the second half this year. That is the worst in the NFL. Only the Titans are at 31. It's like those two. And last week they were tied. And so the Ravens number got worse this week. And the Titans number after giving 52 points got better. That's how bad the Ravens back in and has been. If you watched that game last week, Ross Tucker, who's a great
Starting point is 00:40:19 broadcaster and really good podcaster, he talked about like, you look on film. and every single week, this Ravens defense, the back end, they look confused and they're communicating and trying to get it right while the play is being called and while the ball is being snapped. So it's a huge gamble, literally, to take the Ravens at this big a number. You've got to believe that Bow Nix won't be able to go over the top in the same way. And you know, Sean Payton is going to have him sling it. Like he's playing him like he's a fourth year pro. So it's risky. But the wise guys are on it. If you want to be on it, I can't walk you off. Off of it. Okay, so the game that's most interesting to me, every game, every week I pick a game, and I want you to convince me. So my natural feeling is even off a buy, Dallas just doesn't deliver much to the field. Off a buy against the San Francisco defense without Dre Greenlaw, not really playing particularly well, some top starters out, they couldn't generate much offense. And they were dominated once you went off script in the third quarter and adjusted by the Niners. So I
Starting point is 00:41:24 just don't like Dallas. Every part of my being loves Atlanta minus two and a half three. Every part. But Atlanta is off a very, very competitive divisional game, highly emotional game. And I can see them coming back down the earth. I can see Dallas. Remember, Atlanta offers no pressure. Guys like Dak and Gino Smith with time to throw are usually really effective. So my gut feeling is Atlanta's the side. I picked Atlanta to be the number one seed in the NFC with 12 to 13 wins. I love them. But something tells me Dallas is the side here.
Starting point is 00:42:03 Dallas is where the wise guys are. And this number gets to three. It gets bet down to two and a half. It gets back up to three. It goes down to two and a half. The wise guys definitely like the cowboys here. It's a little strange, you know, the Falcons, Kirk Cousins, is basically run up his numbers, thrown against the Buccaneers and the Panthers.
Starting point is 00:42:25 That's how he's had such a good year. And like, he's played, honest to God, he's thrown like eight touchdowns and thrown for 800 yards against the Buccaneers. And so you look at those numbers, you're like, oh my God, he's amazing. He finally made Kyle Pitts look like what everyone has been drooling about
Starting point is 00:42:43 from a fantasy point of view for the past three or four years. But against regular teams, they're generally mediocre. And so the question becomes, especially against teams they can cover and they can rush the passer. So the question you have to ask yourself is, is Micah Parsons going to play? Because without Micah Parsons, the Cowboys can't rush the passer. That is, you know, part in the phrase, an Achilles heel for Kirk Cousins.
Starting point is 00:43:08 He's not very good against coverage right now. Is Duran Bland going to play? He practiced this week, the Cowboys cornerback. If so, the Cowboys are much, much better in coverage. Jack Prescott is basically a mall Santa at this point. Like he does not move inside the pocket, right? He just sits. For four hours, the guy's just sitting there.
Starting point is 00:43:28 Giving away gift to CD Lam. If he is able to do that against a team like the Falcons that can't get any pressure, then yeah, he's going to slice them up. Cowboys have no running game. They can't stop their run. It is so ugly. It will be so uncomfortable. Everything about these teams says fraud.
Starting point is 00:43:48 So you're really just deciding I'm betting on the underdog as a fraud. Okay. There's always a game or two. I missed. I have a feeling Chargers Browns could be one of them. I would be prone to bet against Cleveland after a win. That would be my gut feeling. Is that one of the games I missed?
Starting point is 00:44:06 Well, certainly it's a game that a lot of wise guys are talking about. And they have been betting on Cleveland. This number has moved down. I think it was a two and a half. No, down to two, now down to one and a half. half. I'm with you, man. I don't get it. And this is what makes betting so interesting, right? Because you have to decide when are you selling? It's like the market. Are you selling? Are you going to hold on for one week too long? Are you going to lose 10 to 20% of your value?
Starting point is 00:44:35 Or are you getting out at the peak? Let's break down the Ravens and the Chargers as competition for James. Let's break down James as he played the Ravens last week. He was great. It's life stuff. them up also had a fumble at the end of the first half that put the Ravens in position to score the go-ahead touchdown instead of being down six-three, they're up 10-6. The play before he threw that dime to Cedric Tillman to win the game for the Ravens, he threw a give-me interception to Kyle Hamilton that Kyle Hamilton dropped. And there were three of those in that game, right? So now you go look at the Chargers.
Starting point is 00:45:12 The Chargers have an elite run defense. they have a great playmaker and Justin Herbert who doesn't turn the ball over. You know they are going to run the ball. Is James Winston going to get away with the same mistakes? That is my concern in betting on the Browns. The wise guys are betting that James will continue to find a way to be James and that because this offensive line is getting healthier, because this defense is getting healthier because the game is in Cleveland,
Starting point is 00:45:43 there's an upswing, there's still momentum. I'm not buying it. So if you want to pass on it, I get it. If you want to take the Chargers, I get it. The Chargers number is getting lower. It's a little trappy to take sort of the road dog, the road favorite in this spot. So it's not a huge play for me, but I will bet the Chargers. Anything else I missed?
Starting point is 00:46:02 Yeah. How did we now talk about the Lions and the Packers? Well, because I don't know if Jordan Love's going to play. Doesn't matter. Don't care. As Jay Cutler says, in the urinal in Chicago when someone tells them
Starting point is 00:46:16 they went to Vanderbilt don't care! I don't care. I'm betting the Packers at plus three and a half and by the way, if Jordan Love isn't playing and it's Malik Willis
Starting point is 00:46:26 and the number goes up to four, four and a half, I'm still playing the Packers. Matt LaFleur is an elite schemer. He has been amazing this season.
Starting point is 00:46:39 Matt LaFlofflor is 70% against the spread when he is an underdog And by the way, when he's an underdog of three or more points, 18 and four. You got Jared Goff who has a balky ankle. You've got Jared Goff playing outdoors. You've got the Lions at peak value right now. You've got the Lions going against a Packers offensive line that is a fantastic pass blocking unit.
Starting point is 00:47:08 And this will be the first time we really see the impact of not having Aiden Hutchinson. to rush the passer. And by the way, Leke Willis, what has he done badly to not give us confidence? Matt LaFleur understands what he is getting into
Starting point is 00:47:23 with that quarterback. This is a smash spot for the Packers. I love the Packers here. Well, that's why you're a professional gambler and I'm a radio schmuck. By the way, by the way, nobody knows nothing until the game is over.
Starting point is 00:47:39 But I am definitely... By the way, my toughest loss of the year, I took, you know, I love the number four. I took Green Bay against Jacksonville, and they kneel before rushing in. That was rough. That was rough. I think I told you to take Jacksonville at three and a half. I know.
Starting point is 00:47:58 But I honestly, Green Bay led, I felt like I was in the wrong. I felt like I was on the right side. But the way I lost, I remember last year, I lost a doink on the Saints. They like hit the crossbar, maybe had twice in that game. felt like about once a year. I laugh. I don't get angry. I feel like you've got to be kidding me. They led by, I think, 10 at one point in the second half. They're going in, running for the touchdown, and the guy does a dive at the two. And I thought, well, okay, the experts were right. Yeah, that's how it works out. By the way, that Jacksonville game was a joke. I was joking
Starting point is 00:48:34 on the podcast this week. I hated the Jacksonville bet. I didn't want to make it. I thought it was a bad idea. I hate that team. I'm not impressed with them. Everything that we needed to go right in that game went right. It was a lucky, lucky win. But then you got to look at the Colts against the Texans and either I got lucky there. Either we got really lucky with the Colts because the Texans were going to, the very least, kick a field goal late in the game. If Joe Mixen and C.J. Shroud don't botch the snap, don't bunch the handoff, and the Colts recover, and then, you know, they can go down and do their thing, or the game ends at three. It wasn't going to go like that, but everything that led up to that made it feel like a great handicap. Everything with Jacksonville felt like a bad handicap,
Starting point is 00:49:22 and we just got lucky in the end. But you sort of have to say to yourself, did I get lucky in both games? Or were both games a great handicap? So I'm going with, they were genius ideas. Yeah. And I'm hoping the same thing happens with the Packers. Sharper Square, Chad Millman, co-host of the favorites, all odds provided by Draft Kings. Thanks, buddy. See you, buddy. Enjoy Halloween. Thanks.
Starting point is 00:49:50 The volume. Thanks so much for listening. If you've enjoyed the podcast, take a moment, rate, and review. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smigel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey. Day and head writer Streeter Seidel
Starting point is 00:50:13 help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the I-Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win.
Starting point is 00:50:29 A win is a win. I don't care which I'll say it. Yep, that's me. Clifford Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, my basketball and college football journey, or my career in sports media. Well, now, I'm bringing all of that excitement to my brand new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfilled of conversations with athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated.
Starting point is 00:50:52 So let's get to it. Listen to The Clifford Show on the IHeard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok podcast network on TikTok. On the Look Back at a podcast. From 1979, that was a big moment for me. 84's big to me. I'm Sam J. And I'm Alex English.
Starting point is 00:51:11 Each episode, we pick a year, unpack what went down, and try to make sense of how we survived it. With our friends, fellow comedians, and favorite authors. Like Mark Lamont Hill on the 80s. It was a wild year. It was a wild year. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged.
Starting point is 00:51:37 It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow Your Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star Wars fan, so we're celebrating May the 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought-provoking Star Wars-related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far, far away, such as the biology
Starting point is 00:52:20 of taun tons and wampas on the ice planet hot, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith Rule of Two. Listen to Stuff to Bole Your Mind on the IHeart Radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.

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