The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Kyler/Kliff TNF Blow Up, McCaffrey → Niners + Week 7 ‘Sharp’ or ‘Square’

Episode Date: October 21, 2022

First, Colin reacts to the Cardinals TNF win over the Saints, defends the frequently maligned Kyler Murray, and gives his immediate thoughts on the late breaking trade sending Christian McCaffrey from the Panthers to the Niners (3:00). He also explains which move the Lakers should make right now before their season slips away. Then the Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 7 picks are "sharp" or "square". They look at Steelers/Dolphins (16:00), Chiefs/Niners (18:00), Jets/Broncos (20:00), Seahawks/Chargers (23:00), Giants/Jags (29:00), Browns/Ravens (31:00), Packers/Commanders (34:00), and Texans/Raiders (34:00). Subscribe and follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates and check out FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! #herd #volumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Just use the promo code Colin and download the Fandual app today. All right, guys, instant reaction. We're going to talk about three things. One, Cliff Kingsbury, Tyler Murray, and the Arizona Cardinals win. Two, Christian McCaffrey just got traded to the 49ers. And three, a thought in the Lakers Clippers game. Which isn't over yet, but I have a thought. Let's start with Cliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray.

They blow up on the sideline. So it appeared that Kyler Murray, I'm not a lip reader, but I could tell, calm the F down. He yelled at Cliff Kingsbury. So I think something that we know to be true. People have a lot of courage on social media. But I've been doing what I've been doing for 30 years. I am considered polarizing. I don't think I've had three people ever come up and be rude to me.

are overwhelmingly kind and gracious and thoughtful. People don't like confrontation. That's not who normal people. That's not what normal people act like. And the reason I bring this up, Bill Maher once said the same thing. He was interviewed on some show. And he said, you know, he goes, in 25 years of being politically polarizing, I probably had one person come up and be rude.

People don't like confrontation, mostly because people are normal. But in sports, because of that, people don't like confrontation, so they're uncomfortable seeing confrontation. Folks, sports is all about collisions, confrontation, arguments, yelling, volume. It's not your job. And when Kyler and Cliff have a moment, that happens constantly. We just see more things than we've ever seen. That's football. Hell, my high school coach yelled at me one time, you are effing uncoachable. I was 17. He's screaming at me. You know, a minute later, I'm throwing a game winning touchdown.

I don't remember that. But the point being, that's what sports is about. It's live. You don't get do-overs. You're not an actor with 38 takes. It's live. Careers are on the line. Million dollars at stake. Shit happens, people yell. I don't have a problem with it. This stuff's been happening forever. We didn't have 45 cameras in stadiums. You see everything now. So that's the first thing.

Secondly, outside of maybe the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills, maybe the Ravens, Chargers, bingles. Minimumum 24, 25 teams in this league are better tomorrow with Kyler Murray as quarterback. His mobility is insane. He throws a beautiful ball. He's accurate. He's got touch. I wish he was taller.

But you know what? I wish Tom Brady move better. You don't have to love everything about Kyler. But people have been defending prickly, illoof Aaron Rogers for 15 years. Okay. Kyler is a star. Arizona just won't treat him like one. Putting addendums in contracts.

making it public, calling him out. 25 teams in this league are better tomorrow with Kyler Murray. Look around the league right now. You know, maybe Philadelphia would say, no, we're going to let this Jalen Hertz thing play out. In Kansas City with Mahomes and Baltimore with Lamar Jackson and the Chargers with Justin Herbert, Cincinnati, Joe Burrow, the Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes.

Come on, man, 24, 25 teams, if there was an opportunity, would make a run at him. Stop. Stop. The mobility, the accuracy, the back shoulder throws. We don't know if his coach can coach. His coach had a losing record in college with Patrick Mahomes as quarterback. There's things I know about Arizona. Rosters got ballers everywhere, speed everywhere, playmakers everywhere, Kiter's super talented. The thing I don't know is Cliff Kingsbury a good coach? And after three years and his college career, my answer is, eh,

eh, he's certainly not upper crust. Is he middle of the pack? I think we'd all say, maybe. You can keep barking about Kyna Murray, but if you've been defending Aaron Rogers for 10 years in the passive aggressive nonsense,

you've got to understand. Stars act differently. They should probably be treated differently. And most teams in this league, if Aaron and Kyler were available, would take it today. All right. Second story. Christian McCaffrey, this broke just a couple of minutes ago, has been traded to the San Francisco 49ers. Details later.

I think this is another sign. And I think the Niners and Philadelphia are the two most talented teams in the NFC. I think this is another sign that the 49ers believe with Jimmy Garoppolo upright, they're a Super Bowl team. You don't, they've already given up three first round picks for Trey Lance. They're giving up more picks for Christian McCaffrey. You do that. You're putting your chips all in, meaning this GM and this coach believe this is a Super Bowl team.

I think it's the right move. Listen, Buffalo and Kansas City in the AFC are absolutely the two best teams. This morning, tonight, in the next 24 hours, Philadelphia appears to be the best team. San Francisco is the most talented. They just had 11 starters out last week. McCaffrey added to this roster, they're telling you, we're not worried about the few future. This is a Super Bowl winning team with Jimmy Garoppolo playing quarterback. You don't give up draft capital, more draft capital, because you think you could make the playoffs. They're looking

around and going, Elijah Mitchell's coming back, Trent Williams coming back, all these weapons, let's add another one, go all in. I think it's the right move. I've said this. The Rams push their chips all in. They won a Super Bowl. Now, what happens when you do that, you get cluster injuries. They're thin on the offensive line. Andrew Whitworth retires. Brian Allen, the center gets hurt. All of a sudden, it looks really, really ugly. I thought the Rams may go in on Christian McCaffrey. But like the Niners, they don't have a lot of first round picks. But I've said this before. aggressive wins in sports. You can sit back, you can wait,

but you win a Super Bowl like Less Need and Matt Stafford and Sean McVeigh did. It gives you like a three-year safety net. You know what I mean? There's a lot of pressure. There's billions of dollars at stake. Kyle Shanahan's a good coach. But you start looking at that Tray Lance situation. You don't know what the future is in San Francisco.

but with Garoppolo healthy, you know what the present is. It's Philadelphia and you probably vying for the NFC championship. You have no idea what Traylance is. Could be great. Don't know. You know what Garapolo is, like the move. All right, I want to talk about Lakers Clippers. Now, as I'm recording this, the game is not over.

It's halftime. Lakers have played well. But it's very interesting. In the first game and a half, Warriors four quarters, Clippers, two quarters. The Lakers are shooting 17 of 64 from three-point land. That's like 24, 25 percent, maybe a little less. This was a team that strongly considered trading Westbrook,

four, but he healed, and giving up some draft picks and what have you. One of the reasons I think it's important to make that move and not wait. Number one, Los Angeles is a busy, distracted market. Nobody cares about the future. They care about now. And the Lakers have always had an advantage on the rest of the league, that the NBA is mostly a winter league. And the weather here in the winter is great. As sports and entertainment have converged, obviously, a lot of athletes and agents more than ever want their players in L.A.

I mean, hell, the Clippers now can get Paul George and Kauai Leonard. The Clippers can get Tailoo, the coach. Lakers still have a bigger brand. And so if you look at the Lakers schedule, it's backloaded. They get much easier games before the trade deadline. What they would like to do is, you know, at the end of the season, if the Lakers are still viable, you've got a lot of the bigger Laker games when people start watching the NBA. That's after the NFL season ends, February, March, April, May.

So they have a lot of big Laker games at that juncture of the season. Early in the season, Utah Jazz, you know, you've got some beatable teams, you've got the Spurs, Portland Trailblazers a couple of times. This early season schedule, there's some really winnable games. Now's the time to get Buddy Healed in. Okay, you make this move at the trade deadline. How long before Buddy Healed, the chemistry with LeBron, that takes a time. 15, 20 games to work, right? Well, the schedule toughens.

The Lakers will be playing many of the best Eastern and Western Conference teams. I just don't think with this roster, cross your fingers on LeBron and 80s health will be able to be competitive later in the season. Your wins are early in the season. Get buddy healed in fast. You're giving up Ws. You're giving up

winnable games. So it'll be interesting. Through six quarters, the Lakers are shooting 24, 25 percent. LeBron after the Warriors game, and he said it with a smile, he said, you know, we don't have a lot of great shooters. We're getting a lot of great looks, but maybe because our opponents want us to get great looks, meaning people are begging us to shoot threes. I watch the Warriors game. I watched the first half of the Clippers game. I believe Tyloo and Steve Kerr wanted, designed a defense to allow the Lakers to get three-pointed.

points shots. So Arizona, I'll take Kyler, despite his sometimes prickly personality, McCaffrey to the 49ers, they're all in now. I believe they should be. Lakers, make the move. You got the Dodgers making move, USC's hiring Lincoln Riley. You got the Rams are going all in. The Chargers went and got Khalil Mack. Lakers. Ubo has been to make a big, move team in LA. I think it's time now. Let's go to Chad Millman, Action Network, the CCO. We're doing Sharp and Square. But first, let me tell you about my friends at LinkedIn. These days, every new potential hire can feel like a high-stakes wager for your small business, right? You want to be 100% certain you have access to the best qualified candidates available and fast. That's why you should check out

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LinkedIn.com slash Colin for free terms and conditions apply. Off a very hot week in both college and pro, I tore it up. Chad Millman's CCO Action Network, all of our odds, presented by a fan duel. We call it Sharper Square. So listen, I went big underdogs last week. Scores of NFL games chat are down seven and a half points in two years. Big plays are down 35%.

Meaning, I like points. We're going to get fewer points in these games. So I'm going to go big dogs this weekend. So you're ready for my first Sharper Square? Let's do it. Steelers at the Dolphins. So a lot of people feel like, oh, Pittsburgh. got very, very lucky.

Very, very lucky. If you look at what Pittsburgh's doing with Kenny Pickett, he's okay. They're going to put a lot of pressure on Tua if he plays. I do not believe the Steelers and the Dolphins is going to provide us a wild shootout. I'm going to probably take Pittsburgh in seven. I took Pittsburgh against Tampa. If you go back to the Buffalo loss, they threw for 350 yards. I think the Steelers hang with them.

Lose, but I'll take seven sharper square. Let me ask you a question. Yeah. There are, you know, 12 games this week, 13 games, whatever it is with the buy. So there will be an even number of underdogs and an even number of, there will be the same number of underdogs and favorites. of all the games you can choose. You're going to choose a game where two is expected to start.

And if he does, he's coming off of a pretty brutal concussion and hasn't played in weeks. We think it'll be Kenny Pickett coming back from a concussion, but we still aren't confirmed. We think that the Steelers defensive backfield is still decimated. You can choose any game. And you're choosing this one? Well, I give you a seven a week. I didn't say it was my, the greatest pick ever. You don't like it.

Not only is this not a sharper square pick. This is a, nobody's even talking about this game. I would say, I agree with you that the Steelers are the right side because it's a big underdog. Mike Tomlin, we talked about this last week, right? Against the box. What did I say? I said, take Mike Tomlin, take the box at plus eight and a half.

Same situation. Good team. we don't know what we have in Miami right now. The Steelers are consistently a team that covers these big numbers. Yes, 100%. Steelers are going to be the right side, not necessarily the sharp side, but the right side. Okay, 49ers coming off an embarrassing loss, though not a highly emotional loss. Kansas City coming off the big game of the year, a slight pullback.

Niners, 11 starters out last week, get three crucial starters back. Chiefs are the worst tackling team in the league. What is San Francisco? Great yards after the catch. I love the number at three. I'd still take the Niners at minus two and a plus two and a half, sharper square. Dude, now we're talking.

Now we're talking. Yeah, this is sharp. So sharp. It's gone to, it's opened at three. It's moved to two and a half. all of the tickets are on Kansas City and this number still moved down. That tells you that the wise guys are on San Francisco right now. What's really interesting is that the tickets have been on Kansas City by a preposterous number, 80, 85 percent the entire week. And the bookmakers

knew they couldn't move it to three and a half because they knew if they did the wise guys were going to come in on San Francisco. And it didn't matter. They came in on San Francisco at plus three. No, Colin, I co-host a podcast on the Volume Podcast Network called The Favorites with my co-host Simon Hunter. So lately, we've been doing the show live on AMP because volume has a deal with AMP, right? Yeah. And it's been super fun. And we're getting these live reactions now from professional betters as we're doing the show talking about games. So on Tuesday, we're doing the show and we're getting texts from professional betters.

we're talking about the Niners and they are saying you got to take the Niners you got to take the Niners you got to take the Niners. This was Tuesday when it was at plus three. So immediately we hit the Niners at plus three. And we talked about it again today. We still like the Niners at plus two and a half. Okay. I often look for things that are sustainable. Jets plus one and a half at the Broncos. So as Greg Kosellter told me Thursday on Fox, the Jets. Front 7 is real, it's sustainable, it's consistent. They also have a lockdown corner and DJ Reed a second excellent corner. The Broncos are now backups across their offensive line and guys who really aren't very highly graded. This is really low scoring. I said it last week when I picked the Packers to lose to the Jets. I said this is a real team. They're not letting Zach Wilson. get in the way of the team. He only had 18 attempts. I think the Jets are a better team. I think they'll win again. And I think they'll win seven to ten points. I think what they're doing sustainable. I think it's a bad matchup with their front and the Broncos O line, sharper square.

Yeah, it's totally sharp. This number has moved down. It's moving in the Jets direction. It's not just moving in the Jets direction because of what the Broncos did in prime time. because of what Russell Wilson has been doing. The wise guys are invested in the Jets. They were on the Jets last week, as you noted, against the Packers at plus seven and a half and consistently moving that number down. It's an interesting game.

If you dig deeper on the numbers, Zach Wilson is really a terrible quarterback. And when he's in the pocket, his QB rating is very good. When he's under pressure and blitzed, his QB rating is 3.4. So when you say they are not letting him get in the way, they are doing their best to keep him out of the way. Like Joe Flacco right now is a better quarterback for the Jets than Zach Wilson.

But they have all the other elements you talked about. Like this defense is for real. Sauce Gardner is for real. The biggest challenge right now, the Broncos defense is really good. So can they stop Breeze Hall? And I think that what you're going to find is that there is a point in this number where it gets down to one and a half, it gets down to one. the wise guys buy it back because I think that's sort of their breaking point on how comfortable

they feel betting the jets. You know, another game that's interesting, and I'm going to go with a favorite here, is I'm going to take the Chargers minus five and a half and here's why. Corey Lindsley, though not announced, I called, practiced. He's back. He calls all their protections. So what did you see from the Chargers against Denver? They were in a third string center.

They weren't calling protections. They were missing on all the stunts. They'll clean up the offensive line. Also, what can give the Chargers trouble if you have a dominating number one corner, which Denver has, it takes Mike Williams out of the game. Seattle is okay at Corner, certainly not dominant. I'm taking the Chargers to win, actually convincingly, even. it's dropped to minus five and a half. It's, I don't, Seattle's got a game.

Their tackles are excellent, but I would take the Chargers, Sharper Square. Totally square. It's moved from six and a half to five and a half because of professional money. They are in on the Seahawks right now. I think there's real issues and they believe there are real issues with what the Chargers are doing offensively because they have had so many offensive line issues. But also because they're just not calling good game plans. Joe Lombardi is calling a very strange, conservative.

We're going to run it first down, run it second down. Hope Justin Herbert can find a miracle on third down. And it's not playing to the strengths of this offense. And I think they like what they're seeing from Seattle. And not just in Gino Smith, who through six weeks now is proving to be a serviceable to better than serviceable quarterback. And we can recite the litany of stats that he, he has that put him in the top tier of quarterbacks right now. We're not going to be crazy.

We're not going to use a small sample size to say all of a sudden, Gino Smith is an all-pro quarterback. But he's doing the things that he does need to do to keep this team in games and help them win games. And I actually think Kenneth Walker is potentially a better solution for them at running back than Rashad Penny. He's pretty amazing. And so this is a really good matchup for them against the Chargers team that is consistently overvalued. Football season's underway. Now is the Perfect time to download Fandul, America's number one sportsbook. Right now, new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000.

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The Giants line didn't make a ton of sense. I think they're the better team and they're getting points. Jacksonville losing again, the crowd will be a non-factor, arguably be a pro-Giants crowd. I think what the Giants are doing, I think their ability to play solid football in the second half. Daniel Jones is not making mistakes. Trevor Lawrence is, despite his talent. I think the Giants are the better team. They're getting points.

Crowd is an absolute non-factor. The heat of Jacksonville, that's not a factor. We're now in late October. That would worry me. I think they control the line of scrimmage. I think their defense forces Trevor Lawrence in the mistakes. I would take the Giants straight out, sharper square. So the wise guys are on the Jacks, and it's an interesting matchup, a really interesting

matchup. The Giants are grading out as the luckiest team in the NFL. And I don't mean that in a pejorie. way. I mean that in ways that we can quantify. At Action Network, we publish something called the Luck Rankings that takes into factors such as turnovers, mistakes by the other teams, things that you would expect to show some regression to the mean. The Giants are far and away the luckiest team in the NFL. Okay. Their 30th in DVOA and defense, which basically just says they're really bad at defense. They've had miraculous wins week after.

After week, after week. They beat the Panthers by three. They beat the Bears by eight. They beat the Packers who are looking worse and worse each week. They have flurked turnover. Fluked turnovers to beat the Ravens. They've been tied or trailed in the fourth quarter of all five games that they've won. I think this is a by-low, sell-high spot for the Jaguars.

The Jaguars have a really good rush defense this year. It plays to the giant strength. And the Jags have been on the opposite side of luck in this situation. No joke. Last week, Trevor Lawrence played the best statistical game in the history of the NFL for a quarterback to lose. Like, they have just had bad spots again and again and again. Jags are the side here. I'll tell you my favorite that's interesting to me is Ravens minus six and a half.

They're really a good team. They've led by double digits. they're using now Lamar so much. He looks somewhat fatigued by the fourth quarter and has been a bad fourth quarterback. Cleveland's not a good team. You see Jacoby Brissette four or five times as a starter and he just, you can see, he can't do much. I think Baltimore's a really good team that's had bad fourth quarters. I watched the Giants Ravens game for a second time this week.

They were the better football team. This is one of the few blowouts of the weekend to me. even though it's a divisional game. I think the Ravens win comfortably at home, pissed off after blowing that game, Sharper Square. Yeah, look, I think that Jacoby Brissette has definitely turned into a pumpkin. The wise guys are going to be on Baltimore in this game. It's moved from five and a half up to six and a half.

The Brown's defense is putrid. So now you're getting a quarterback who's not nearly as effective as he was in the early part of the year with a defense that is just dreadful, especially a rush defense that is dreadful. I know J.K. Dobbins had some limited practice this week, but Lamar is still Lamar, and he's running it so thoughtfully and strategically and getting himself out of bounds and sliding in the right spots. It's a real weapon for them.

Obviously, we all agree. So the wise guys are with you. Okay. There's two other games. One, I have no opinion on. I have a hunch, and I want your expertise. I would take the commanders plus four and a half. I don't buy Green Bay.

I haven't bought Green Bay. I had the Jets beating Green Bay. My theory is we have anointed Matt LaFleur to a VIP club and he's never paid his dues. The special teams are a wreck again. The defense is underachieving. He's supposed to be a run design coach. They don't use Aaron Jones. They can't throw the deep ball.

They may win. But four, it was at five and a half at one point in Fandul. It's four and a half. It feels like a strong commander's play. Should I put that in my blazing five? You 100% should put this in your blazing five. It's a game that the wise guys have been talking about all week. They targeted it as soon as it opened at five and a half.

It's why you've seen it go down to four and a half. You take the decals off the helmets. And you're talking about two teams that have mediocre to bad defenses, right? And you're talking about the only thing that the commanders do really well on defense is pressure the quarterback without having a blitz. Their third best in pressure rate as a defense without having a blitz. The one thing we know can trouble Aaron Rogers

is when you can get to him and pressure him without having to blitz. So that plays to Washington's advantage. Then let's look at the other side. Let's say it's Taylor Heineckee, and you've got a backup quarterback coming in for Carson Wentz. The wise guys look at this and think, wait a second, we're better off with Taylor Heinecke playing quarterback. He has a better,

he has a better career completion percentage, similar yards per attempt to Carson Wentz for his career, similar QBR, and he's more mobile than Carson Wentz. So it sounds crazy when you look at it sort of without the numbers, you say, I'm going to bet on a team with the backup quarterback whose ownership group is in complete disarray. And they're generally, historically, bad franchise against the defending two-time MVP. But this is the spot where you take the commanders. This game should be power rated. It is power rated at three, three and a half tops. So right now you're still getting about a point, a point and a half of value. Okay. So then I ask you every week for a game that I have not discussed. By the way,

I think the craziest thing in the league so far is the fact that we think the culture awful and they're three, two, and one when we win over the chiefs. That's not the game. But I literally said this week, I'm like, oh, they're awful. And then I looked at, I went, they have a winning record. They beat Kansas City. How is that possible? Right. What's the game you love that I haven't brought up? Yeah, the chiefs are stunning, right? Like, we all think the chiefs should be, or the cults should be 0 and 6 right now. The way that, like, they started the year, they looked so disoriented. Matt Ryan looked terrible. It's very interesting that the sports books, they never, as bad as the Colts looked. They never had the Colts out of the lead position to win the AFC South. Their odds were

always shortest to win the AFC South. As usual, the bookmakers are seeing something and knowing something that the rest of us aren't. The game that you haven't talked about, which is interesting to me, Houston Texans plus seven against the Las Vegas Raiders. I don't really understand, and the professional betters don't really understand why this number is as big as it is. As we just talked about with Washington and Green Bay. These are two teams that generally are evenly matched when it comes to what their offensive units are doing and what their defensive units are doing in terms of overall rankings. There is no reason the Raiders in any scenario should be a touchdown favorite against anyone. And this year, the Texans have been competitive in every

game. The only game they haven't really been competitive in from a score perspective, they lost to the Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points, they were in that game the entire time. It was until two minutes left that they ended up getting it out of hand. So the Texans have been competitive and the Raiders aren't. So a touchdown favorite is a little bit too big for me. All right. Interesting week. How did you do last week?

I was really, really strong. We went three and two in our best five. We have yet to have a losing week on the year. let's see, we're week, it's 30 games in, we're 21 and 9 on our best five on the favorites. That's pretty good. Pretty good. I mean, considering you and Simon hate each other's guts and you make it work. It's amazing.

We can find five games that we agree on each week. I mean, it really is. And it's honestly a miracle. But you know what? We do it for love of the volume. We do it for the fans. We do it because we know there are people out there who need to get educated and we like to give them knowledge. You are like the Draymond Green Jordan Pool of sports gambling.

You get along for the betterment of the community, but you can't stand each other. You know what? In that scenario, I like to see myself as Jordan Pool and I'm about to get paid. All right, Chad Millman, good seeing you. All right, brother. See you later. Volume. Make sure to check out the Dramon Green Show. I brought Dramon Green into the volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports, unique perspective, understands behind the rope,

also chops up with guests like Gary Payton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure download the Dramon Green Show wherever you get your podcast, only on the volume podcast network. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. on Humor Me with Robert Smygel and Friends, me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, S&L's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.

Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to Humor Me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged.

It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHart Radio app,

Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. This is an IHart podcast. Guaranteed human