The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Lions Upset Chiefs, Bold Predictions with Jason McIntyre, Sharp or Square

Episode Date: September 8, 2023

NFL football is back! Colin reacts to the Lions upset over the Chiefs and gives both teams a few reasons why they shouldn’t overreact.  Then, The Herd co-host - and host of  Straight Fire - Jason McIntyre stops by to face-off against Colin in the VLTED challenge where they both make bold predictions for the upcoming weekend of NFL games.  Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network, also joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square”, and gives the sharpest advice on how to bet the upcoming NFL slate.  Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates! #Herd #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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No matter where you live. Get out and have some fun this weekend, baby. Download the Game Time app today. Last-minute tickets. Lowest prices guaranteed. Game time. Hi, everybody. How about that? I think we watched two really good football teams, both with improved defenses and neither played particularly well tonight. So starters over the last few years are playing fewer snaps in preseason. And I thought that was fairly evident. We've seen that in college football with a transfer portal. You know, you don't have a preseason in college football. It can get choppy even for the great teams like Ohio State. These are much better defenses.

Kansas City relied on a lot of young players. They didn't have Chris Jones tonight yet generated a really good pass rush, batted down several Jared Goff throws, including a crucial fourth and too late. Now, they lost the game, but that was a big moment. So, you know, and they've got, you know, Nick Bolton's a tremendous young linebacker. They've got some young studs in the secondary. So if you're a Kansas City, that's a pretty good defensive performance. because the Lions are going to light some people up.

That O-line, Goff, Amaran St. Brown, running game. Detroit's going to drop some 30 bombs on people. And I thought Kansas City's defense, all those young players, another year in camp, another off-season under Spags, I thought the Chief's defense was really impressive and generated against a great O-line, a pretty consistent pass rush without Chris Jones. So for Kansas City, all is not lost. You didn't have Kelsey. He didn't have Chris Jones.

And, you know, you missed Kelsey. There's 1% of the players in this league are worth, I mean, take out quarterbacks. There may be 20 players in this league that are worth a point to a point in a half. And Travis Kelsey is one of them. And when you lose a Tyree kill, a Ju-Jew Smith-Schuster, Travis Kelsey becomes even more crucial. I mean, how many passes did Tony drop tonight? How many passes did Kansas City drop? drop tonight. You really, I mean, Travis Kelsey would have gotten a dozen 13, 14 targets,

made 9 to 10 catches probably for over 100 yards. So they really miss Travis Kelsey tonight. His ball security, his hands, his dependability on big third down plays. And that's not an excuse. That's probably the difference in the ballgame. Kelsey is that much of a security blanket in key spots. It's like Brady and Gronk. He just is great, great players. Edelman, Gronk. How big were they in playoff games, big games on third down or fourth down in the red zone for Tom Brady. Even great players have players they depend on. Let's talk to Troy. I didn't think they played necessarily that great. I thought their O-line struggled at pass protect. I didn't think they could generate much of a run game early, and that's really good O-line. But again, the cohesion is very

difficult. You're on the road. It's loud. Kansas City played very well defensively up front. Spags is a great defensive coordinator. So I thought the Lions have addressed. I mean, they've really, the last two drafts, the Lions know, you know, most of their talent was on the offensive side. So their front office has done a good job. Branch had a pick six. Hutchison's a tremendous. It's not T.J. Watt yet, but he is a tremendous. It's not a Bosa yet, but he is excellent, consistent pass rusher. Great motor never stops out of Michigan. So if you're the Lions tonight, If I'm a Lions fan, my take is, I didn't think we even played that great in the first half. I thought, where you saw the Lions' strength is as the game wore on, that offensive line,

they had that nine-play drive in the fourth quarter. Then they had, they picked up a first down late, trying to kill the clock. That's just, you know, these games, defenses early in games, Kansas City, consistent pass rush, young defense. All of a sudden, that nine-played drive, Gawkins. made a couple of big throws. They start, and it was a power run game. It was clever. They had different looks, but it was not a finesse run game on that nine play drive. It was a power run game. And you can see it felt a little bit like to me, that O line kind of exerted its power a little bit in that drive. Again, I think two really good teams, two clearly improve defenses,

neither played particularly well. So if you're Kansas City, Travis Kelsey was clearly missed. Chris Jones didn't feel like he was, but Travis Kelsey was clearly missed with all the drops. And I think if you look at Detroit, you're like, we didn't play particularly well. Couldn't have some mishaps in the first half. I didn't even think, I know everybody loves the OC Ben Johnson for the Lions.

I didn't love his play calling in certain spots tonight. I really didn't on fourth and two in the fourth quarter. I'm like, I'm wearing my notes here. Yeah, fourth and two. There's a minute or so, a minute and a half, two minutes left, maybe two and a half. Run the ball. You just had a nine play power run drive. Like, run the ball.

They didn't pass, batted down. So I think Detroit is flying home tonight thinking, Dan Campbell's in in that locker room, guys, this was not flawless football. We just beat the world champs on the road. we didn't play that great in spots. Our pass protection wasn't great, couldn't run the first ball, football in the first half.

Goff, a lot of passes, batted down. But I think what you saw with that fake punt early in the game, I think Detroit came in with a mindset. We're taking big swings here. Okay, we're not playing the world champs

and going conservative. To beat Mahomes, got to take a league, got to take big cuts, big swings. Can't play not to lose. I mean, how many times have we seen that

with Mahomes? you've got to play aggressive football. And so they came in with an attitude. And I think that's what Dan Campbell has provided. Do I think he's schematically brilliant? Well, he's built a very good staff. So he knows people. That's clear.

The front office has done a really good job to build this O-line and the defense up over the last couple years. You know, when I do these hits, everybody always feels good about the winning team. If I'm Detroit, we didn't play that great, and we won in Kansas City. I think Travis Kelsey was missed.

I mean, man, a lot of drops. Now, the other thing, I don't think Mahomes played particularly well. I thought he was behind, the timing was off. This is the downside to not playing quarterbacks in the preseason much. I thought Mahomes was really hit and miss. I mean, he short-hopped a deep ball. He never does that. Behind on two or three guys.

Now, the drops didn't help. But, you know, again, when you don't have your security blanket, your Edelman or your gronk for Brady, you're forcing stuff, the timing's not pretty. So you have young guys, Sky Moore's a young guy. I don't have Kelsey. I didn't play much in the preseason. This is what it looks like. So it's a go either way game. The Lions get that big drive, that nine-play drive late. It wasn't pretty, was not an artistic masterpiece. I don't think either team played particularly well. But a tip of the captain of the Lions, good for them. I had them winning the NFC North. I think they're my team. I think in that division, amongst the bears, the Packers, and the Vikings. I think they have the best offensive line. I think they edge Green Bay for the best offensive line. I think golf is better than Kirk Cousins, not as athletic, but a better pocket guy than Justin Fields, better than Jordan Love.

So I think the O line and the quarterback, I think the Lions have the best groups in their division. And I think their defense has improved. They branch, Hutchison, they've hitting a couple guys. So it's an exciting time. My wife is from Michigan. She doesn't follow sports or care about it, but she knows about the Lions and she knows about Michigan football. So good for Detroit.

And they've had some lean decades. But I felt big. It felt big for them. And I like the way Detroit won. I like that nine play drive in the second half. That's just Dan Campbell. That's biting kneecaps. That's big, tough, physical power running.

Nice W. We're here, baby. Football's here. We're going to bring in J-MAC of the Herg, Jason McIntyre, to play a new game every week called The Vaulted Challenge. Okay? So we're excited to be using the Vaulted app. It's spelled V-L-T-E-D. Vaulted is a place where you can store your sports predictions and participate in cash prize pools

without any entry fee. How cool is that? You can prove you're smarter than all your friends using the vaulted challenge app. I'm issuing three challenges to J-Mack around this weekend's game. He can either accept or reject my vaulted challenge. So here we go. My prediction, Kenny Pickett throws for more yards than Brock Purdy of San Francisco. I'm risking three units. agree or disagree. I disagree, Colin. I like Brock Purdy in this spot. I know it's a road game. We don't know the status of George Kittle, but this is a game where he's going to have to put the ball up in the air. I think 30, 35 pass attempts because I think they're going to be playing from behind, and I don't think they're going to be able to run on this nasty Pittsburgh defensive front.

I think this is probably a 250-yard passing game for Purdy, and I don't know that Pickle will get there, mostly because the defense will do the job. I like Pittsburgh in the game, and I like Purdy through the air. Next up, Texans Ravens. I predict Lamar Jackson has more total touchdowns than the entire Texans offense. I'm risking seven units on this one. Agree or disagree. Yeah, I'm going to agree with you there. I'm surprised it wasn't 10 units. Goodness gracious. I mean, Lamar, this could be a bloodbath. I don't see the Texans stopping Lamar. He's never had this many weapons. Odell Beckham's a flower. Like, they really are in line here to put up 40 and make a statement. We've got a new Offensive coordinator, we're moving on to a new era and Texans and D'emico Ryan's. I'm sorry,

it's an uphill challenge. You don't have the 49ers defense you had last year. Final challenge, Packers, Bears. I'm going to predict Justin Fields, Chicago quarterback, has more rushing yards than Aaron Jones, the top running back for Green Bay. I'm risking two units. Agree or disagree. Smells like a trap. I'm going to go ahead and disagree with you, Colin. I think this is an Aaron Jones game. If you've seen the injury reports, Romeo Dobbs. And Christian Watson are like, we don't know, they're not practicing earlier in the week. It's like, how healthy are they?

Then you look at the weapons outside and not Jordan Love is not going to have many. I think this is a heavy Aaron Jones game, probably with a dose of Mr. Dillon behind him. I think Justin Fields, we know what he can do getting loose. But all signs indicate Fields is going to want to win from the pocket this year. He can't take the beating he took last year. So I think Fields rushing yards probably diminished a little bit. Aaron Jones, I got him on all my fantasy teams. This is probably a 125, 150 game from Aaron Jones.

All right, Colin, my first challenge to you is that Baker Mayfield, your favorite quarterback, will have more passing yards than Kurt Cousins. I'm risking four units on this one. Agree or disagree? I agree. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have shown no ability in the last two years to run the football. Baker is going to be forced to throw. I like their weapons. This is one of those games that I don't like Tampa to win. I think they'll train. I think they'll have to throw. I think they'll have no run game. I agree. Interesting.

All right. Let's go to my next one. Texans, C.J. Stroud's debut. I predict he will have less than two touchdown passes. I'm risking only one unit here because this, like I said earlier, it could be a bloodbath and he's airing it out. Would you agree or disagree? I'm going to disagree because I think they'll trail and have to throw the ball, Ravens in a prevent defense late. and CJ will actually get those, you know, classic last two to three drive yards and touchdowns to elevate his overall numbers.

I think they trail. I think it could be ugly. He'll get a lot of those padded stats that don't mean much, but I disagree. Garbage time. All right, we'll wrap up with my final prediction. Most confident here, Russell Wilson has more than 235-passing yards against the Raiders. I'm winning nine units on this one, Colin. A lot of confidence, agree or disagree. I agree, and I think Denver wins and probably comfortably Denver at home. Sean Payton was coach of the year with the Saints his first year. He figures stuff out quickly. I work with them in TV.

He figures stuff out quickly. Raiders are a bit of a mess. The Chandler Jones drama I don't love. Don't love ownership. New front office. I agree. I think Russell, new slimmer Russell, running more playoff. Action Russell, I think he has a pretty good day.

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It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app,

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We also have AIDS on the table right now. Thank you for finishing that sentence. I don't think there's a more important year for black people. Really? Yeah. For me, it's one of the most important years for black people in American history. Listen to look back at it on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Well, for the last several years, it has been hopefully a part of your gaming habits,

I play appropriately the square, although last year I hit 55, 56% of my games and had a winning opening week, which I'm not prone to do, because I tend to be like a boxer. I feel out the opposition. And so my week one history is pretty lame. And the Sharp is, as always, Chad Millman, the Action Network. All of our odds provided by Draft Kings, our new partner. So let's just, I'm going to just ease my way into it. You know, There's a lot of things. I'll tell you one of my, I talked about this all off season. And I don't know if I'm going to make it a bet, but I said, Shane Steichen's great. I've seen him work magic with two young quarterbacks. And I have no idea, nor does Jacksonville know what the hell they're getting from Anthony Richardson.

I'm not going to make that one of my picks, but a rivalry game, you know we're going to be stunned by something week one. So I just want to feeler on that because I think Jacksonville is coming. in with pressure and has no idea what they're getting. And I think for three hours, you can upset people when they, it's just the element of surprise. What would you say? I'd say, you don't need a couple of weeks to feel things out right now, Colin. You are as sharp as a knife. The only reason I haven't done is yet is because Jacksonville is such a public team that I know money is going to come in on them during the weekend. And by Sunday, I might get a better number. I might get Indianapolis plus five and a half, plus six. So I'm just waiting for that. But look, in previous years, we've seen this.

Jacksonville hosts Indianapolis in week one. And everybody knows you're going to bet on Indianapolis, but you bet on Jacksonville because they're the worst team and they're getting huge number. It's the only game they win all year. And then Indianapolis turns around and is fine. Now the situation to reverse, Jacksonville is everybody's darling. They love Trevor Lawrence. This is a terrible offensive line, maybe one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL, and they're without Cam Robinson for the first four weeks of the year. This is going to be Indianapolis' one of their best chances to win.

So I love, love, love indie as an underdog here. All right. Well, I'm going to bet that game. I just decided. Okay, here's another one. So I'm going to say something, and you are going to tell, your friends off air, he doesn't know what he's talking about.

But here's my theory, because you would not be rude, but I've always had this thing about the number four in betting. So when I see three and a half, I'm going to take the hook in most instances. But four is different. Vegas and the wise guys are telling you,

we don't need the hook. The favorite's the better team. So Sean Payton won coach of the year first year in New Orleans. His shit works fast. And we don't doubt the talent here. It's just the culture. Here's what I saw. Russell Wilson loses weight. By the second preseason game, they do one series. And Sean's like, okay, seen enough. I'm not showing you anything else. I think Sean, remember the first preseason game? They've played four series in one week. all of a sudden that next series you're like,

oh, that looks good. Sean, close the books. We're done. I think Denver comes out. They're great opening weeks in the altitude. They beat the desert team. Denver minus four. Sharper Square.

Yeah, I think your instincts are all right. I love Denver. One of my biggest bets is Denver to win the AFC West. I also... Listen, you have to think about what you just said, right? Think about Sean Payton. Think about a defense. Think about a defense that gave up more than 20 points once in the first 11 weeks of the year.

They could have won so many games if their offense could have scored two and a half touchdowns in the first 11 games of the year. They lost multiple games in overtime. It wasn't until the end of the year where they had completely lost themselves that they were, defense started to fade a little bit. They've got really good skill position players. You've got to believe that Sean Payton is worth several wins on top of what they did last year, certainly like them at over eight and a half wins. And why not? Like, it's not going to be the Kansas City show every single year in the AFC West. And there's always a team, 18 of the past 20 years, Colin, a team goes from worst to first in the division. Why not Denver? So all that said,

This game is kind of a pass for me because I don't like the number. I think four is actually too much. And you're talking about a divisional game, first game of the year. There's a couple spots here where I like the favorite a lot, but I don't like the number in these scenarios. And this is one of those games. All right, I'm going to go to the one o'clock window. This has been much discussed in the herd. I don't know if you've heard, but it's a very popular show nationally.

The kids adore it. Tell me about it. The old people tolerate it. So, I'm going to take Pittsburgh plus the points. I don't love Draft Kings has it at plus two. I like 2.5. I like 2.5. Okay, but when T.J. Watts healthy, they win.

Mike Tomlin is as good a coach as the league has when he's backed into a corner. He's playing a more talented team. Everybody's disrespect and Kenny Pickett. I don't like Tomlin as a favorite, but as a home dog. I remember a couple years ago when he went to Buffalo. And they walked in there with an old big bend. I'm like, what did I just watch? I'm going to take the points with Pittsburgh.

Kenny Pickett once. At the end of the year, he moved the chains. What do you think? Sharper Square. You are so freaking sharp on this, Colin. On the favorites podcast, which you know well, this was my executive decision, meaning it's a must-bet game.

I love Pittsburgh here. Truth but told, I loved Pittsburgh. when the lines opened in, I don't know, May or June, and they were three-point underdogs at home. I think Kenny Bickett is a baller. I love him as a quarterback for this team. San Francisco, look, they're going to be a team that everyone loves to potentially make the Super Bowl. As a road favorite, Kyle Shanahan is not great, just 10 and 11 against the spread. But what you said about Mike Tomlin, Mike Tomlin is the best. underdog coach in the past 20 years.

Literally the most profitable underdog coach in the past 20 years. They are 53, 30, and 4 as an underdog under Mike Tomlin, the Pittsburgh is. So I love this team. I kind of love them outright. Like Tomlin does really well. He's 2019 and covering, like, as a,

outright as an underdog. So this is a great game to bet. Also, let me say one thing. T.J. Watt, huge game changer. Don't forget, he was injured for a lot of the season last year, right? Eight and two straight up and against the spread, Pittsburgh is when T.J. Watt is on the field last year. So this is a much different team with T.J. Watt.

You got it back. You got it back Pittsburgh here. As a young child, the kids in the neighborhood would call me Contrarian Collin. I'm going to take New York plus three and a half. Here's why. Daniel Jones may have a ceiling, but he doesn't lose you games. He had five picks. He's a bigger, stronger, more athletic version of Alex Smith. There's a ceiling. But in year two with Brian Dable, they've added an element of Darren Waller. They're now very good at tackle, both sides. Their second round pick could be the best young center on the game. Barclay's in-house. I like their defensive front, Kavon Thibodeau a second year. I don't like Dallas's head coach. I'm not in love with the offensive line coach. Their best coach is their defensive coordinator. And DAC has become a pocket passer. That's what he is now. Second year, Brian Daible, at home, the world loves Dallas. I don't think New York is a great team, but I don't see them going off a cliff with Brian Daibble. I'm going to take three and a half and New York, sharper square. Totally sharp. You're making the exact right move. I know that New York is a better team, but close spread division rivals. What's really interesting about New York, and there's a similarity with Minnesota,

the narrative for both teams is that they won a lot of close games. The narrative for Minnesota is that there's going to be huge regression, that they will not be able to do the same thing. The narrative for New York is that Brian Daibble is such a good coach, a lot of the success they had is repeatable. And we're all sort of falling into that trap a little bit that he is so good he will win his team games in ways that other coaches can't. I firmly believe that New York is the right side in this game

because of Brian Deibel, because of some of the things you just said about the talent they've added, it'll be very interesting to see if this narrative holds and if he is good enough to keep this team in close games the way he did last. year. It's a big game, so let's play it. So I don't love that Vaughn Miller is out for Buffalo, and I don't love that Leslie Frazier just decided to leave the franchise. But Buffalo's well-coached.

Josh Allen is in his prime. You don't have to love either offensive line, but old quarterbacks, bad at tackle, is a real concern. We can say we don't like this Defon Diggs drama. We know. We It's going to be fine week one. Okay, we're not worried about a blow up now. It was the end of last year. I get a quarterback in his prime. They got the best tight end in the draft. They're healthy outside of Vaughn Miller.

I don't like when Tom Brady went to Tampa. What did he say? Tristan Wirfford fell apart when the O-line did. Young quarterbacks, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Herbert. Herbert set rookie records with a terrible O'Lerfs. I think Aaron's going to get prickly really fast. This is a bad old line. I'm going to take Buffalo minus two and a half.

Sharper square. This is a bad spot. This is a bad spot for Buffalo, and it's a good spot for New York. And I'll preface all of what I'm going to say by saying, I have Buffalo going to the Super Bowl, and I am fading New York every chance I get. if it's the right spot.

This is not the right spot. I think in a week, we're going to love Buffalo and we're going to hate New York. But one thing New York has going for it, A, it's at home, prime time, Aaron Rogers. If he's ever going to shine, this is the spot.

B, they've got a tremendous defensive line. Buffalo's offensive line is just not that good. And so while Josh Allen is incredibly athletic and in his prime, and will be able to make people miss, and cover up people's mistakes, he can't do it the whole game against a really good New York defense.

So this game probably should be closer to pick and you're getting two and a half points of value. We got, you know, on the podcast and the favorites, we get calls from professional betters all the time. This was the game they could not wait to hammer. Oh, okay. You did great though, Colin. You did really good.

Well, contrarian. I don't want you feel bad about yourself. Got that moniker as a child. Okay. Contrarian. On the tough. You grew up with a lot of wise guys, did you? The tough streets of Grayland, Washington.

Okay. That's right. You always convince me of a game to take. A lot of people like Washington this week. I don't know. Give me the game you think I missed, overlooked. How gross do you want to be? Oh, this is the game you play.

I, listen. I can be gross. Because I could go try to get you to take Houston at plus 10. The only double-digit. You know, I hate big numbers. I hate big favorites. I know, but that's, that is definitely a game I'm going to be vetting. But how about this?

And I'm surprised you didn't mention this one. Why not Cleveland hosting Cincinnati? Cleveland is another one, similar to Denver. I bet Cleveland to win the AFC North. This team has a top five offensive line. They've got a top five defensive line, an incredibly talented roster, a really good coach. You're betting on Deshawn Watson, getting back to mid-level form. But Joe Burrow, he's been injured.

Week one can be challenging. We don't know what we're getting out of that team yet. they're on the road. This is the spot where you find out what kind of talent and competition Cleveland can live up to. I smash Cleveland. Love this spot for that.

Let me throw this one at you. Just interested in your perspective. We both love Chicago. I'm going to stay away from this game. A lot of people like Green Bay here. What say you? Yeah, the wise guys like Green Bay here a lot more than they like Chicago.

And I think it's, they liked it and started pounding it when the line was at about two and a half. Look, there's been so much hype for Chicago. I obviously love Chicago. I'm from there. I talk about them often. I'm not convinced that this is going to be a team you want to bet on early. They've still got a lot of offensive line issues.

We don't know how accurate Justin Fields can be with DJ Moore. The defense is atrocious. It's still a team that finished 3 and 14, lost 10. games in a row. It is not a good spot for them. I think there's a lot more to love for a Green Bay's roster from top to bottom. And the fact that they have seen enough of Jordan love to feel good that he can be someone who can potentially win this game outright. So as a short underdog, the professionals are back in Green Bay. I'm going to stay away from Miami this year because of Tua. I'm staying away mostly. I think that's right. I like Los Angeles here.

It's a tricky game, though. There's a lot of tricky games. And the other game, by the way, I know we're ending our time here, but we did not talk about New England and Philadelphia, which is another game. The wise guys love New England. So I like New England, but I worry about the right side of their own line. Listen.

From everyone who knows more than me, call Cocell. Does Cocell care about the right tackle? Does he have the right tackle who's filling in graded that much below the right tackle who's injured? The line moved half a point off of that news. So New England is now a four-point underdog. I would take New England in this spot. Well, I'm not going to have a cocktail. It's Thursday game night, so I'll have clarity to sleep on that.

You may have convincing me on that one. That right tackle. That right tackles everything. I do what I can. This is why this is why, professional betters watch preseason games. People think, oh, why would you bet on preseason game? Why would you watch preseason? Professional beters watch preseason games. I've been in the room with them when they're talking about this because they are grading the backup tackle and the backup guard

late in the second quarter in the third quarter all the way through to the fourth quarter, because that does make a difference for a lot of teams when it comes to betting on them later in the season when you start to get banged up. So this is an important. right tackle you joke but it's it's important but i don't think it's going to matter you know when you're in a room full of professional betters you know what's different about you you're the only one with a beautiful redhead he has folks he has a beautiful yeah well that would go for you too my wife look like sisters you are very true pro sports gamblers um have beautiful wives that's just a random generalization by the way

I think they would say, oh, Colin, you're being contrarian. Sharper Square, all odds provided by Draft Kings, my friend. Awesome. See you later. The volume. Another podcast from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier.

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