The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - Los Angeles Fires, Sharp Or Square - Betting Wild Card Weekend + The College Football Playoff Semifinals

Episode Date: January 10, 2025

Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network and host of “The Favorites” podcast, joins Colin for a round of “Sharp or Square,” to help provide Colin with the sharpest betting advice for the College Football Playoff and NFL Wild Card Weekend after briefly addressing the horrific wildfires that have decimated several areas around Los Angeles. 3:00 - Los Angeles fires 16:00 - Texas vs Ohio State 20:00 - Steelers vs Ravens 29:30 - Eagles vs Packers 33:00 - Commanders vs Buccaneers  35:15 - Rams vs Vikings 38:45 - Bills vs Broncos 42:00 - Chargers vs Texans (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements.) Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates!  #Volume #Herd  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas.

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It's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, Point Game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season. And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was crying. You just understood. That's how personal it got.

Wow. Then after that game seven, Marquis' keep coming to you. He's like, you know, I love you, dog. You know, it's all love. This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the, iHeart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Hey, I'm Deanna Maria Riva, and on my new podcast, How Hard Can It Be? I call on my Gen X squad from Ohio to Hollywood as we navigate Midlife's most fantastic BS. Unfiltered conversations from night sweats to futas to scheduling sex. Wait, what sex? Is it just me or does every woman my age want to look at Pinterest instead of having sex sometimes? They say we can't polish a turn, but we're sure going to try. So let's get blunt with laughs, tears or tears of laughter. Listen to How Hard Can It Be with the Anna Maria Riva on the Iheart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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All right, time to bring in Chad Millman co-host of the favorites. We always call this sharp or square. All of our odds provided by draft kings. We will start, because Chad and I were texting the other day, on the wildfires and the devastating damage in Southern California. You know, it's interesting, Chad, one of the things I try not to fall into, and it's just rampant on the internet, is making things political when they don't necessarily need to be, you know? And the areas that were devastated, Malibu and Palisades, Pacific Palisades, I've actually driven around a lot over the last several years because I was looking to buy a home in Pacific Palisades. And one of the reasons I didn't, and my wife and I didn't, is because the inaccessibility,

of these windy roads into canyons. And I said to my wife, if I got into trouble or had a heart attack, I mean, it could take 40 minutes for somebody to get here. You, an ambulance. And so you had this, you had four concurrent wildfires, 80 mile an hour winds, which meant planes were not allowed to fly over and drop water. So two things happened. Four concurrent wildfires,

historically bad winds, not even in fire season, and you couldn't use planes. It's like the world's worst tsunami. You can blame the Coast Guard. You can't prepare for it. And if people don't know this area and Topanga Canyon and Malibu, they have no idea what this place is like. Like most people that work nine to five,

you can't live in Malibu because you can't get in and out of it in the morning. So, you know, people are making this just a completely, and I voted for Rick Caruso over Karen Bass, you know, because I thought the city needed somebody who was in development, a builder for their homeless issues. I thought he could really solve that. And he had a real detailed plan on this. And I got nothing for against Karen Bass, but sometimes things happen historically and you can't prepare or solve it. And I'm not saying, I mean, they had these water tanks. available. They blew through three of them, millions of gallons of water very, very quickly. They could have had six of those reservoirs, not three. It wouldn't have solved it. So it's one of those things for people asking me, do we have to make it political? Like, this thing was historic. People don't understand. The day of those, they told you a day out in Los Angeles. two days before there was a weather warning, and they put the list of how strong the winds would be. And everybody in town was like, oh, this is trouble.

This is big trouble. So there was some sense it could be happening. And now there's arson. There's discussions of arson on some of these later fires. But I'm okay. The firefighters are amazing. But I don't think people understand. this region, this area is a jungle. It is trees and canyons and narrow roads. And the fires were so intense

on the flat lower levels, it made it very difficult to get up and solve the upper tier, the upper parts of it. So that's my rant on it. I'm fine. I've got friends who have lost homes. It's gutting. It's awful. It's terrible. But I just wish people, sometimes not everything would have to be about politics. This was a historically bad two days of four concurrent wildfires and 80-mile-an-hour winds. And four concurrent wildfires, by the way, if you look at the maps, it's not isolated to four sections of greater Los Angeles that are all right next to each other. You can go from the Palisades to Pasadena, which are not on top of each other, and you're getting massive fires in both places. I, like you, have been struck by people who are saying, this isn't global

warming. This is the city of Los Angeles's inability to manage the catastrophe by not having water or not having police and fire where they need to have them. It all strikes me as a little disingenuous because in either capacity, something is causing this. It's not the police and fire and lack of water that are causing 80 to 100 mile an hour winds. And I don't really understand why it has to get political at all like you. Someone's got to get people out. Someone's got to go manage the fire. They're doing the best job they possibly can. I'm always struck by when I'm driving around LA, especially in the hills, how the entire area is constructed like a janga set. Yeah.

Right? You see there's a house on every single inch of property going up these winding roads. I know palisades a little bit less. And it's astonishing to me the way the city and the hills especially houses have been constructed there. It's not surprising when you're seeing an area. that is so compact with housing, the fire is jumping from one place to the next.

There's no opportunity for it to stop because there's so much fuel there. It is, as someone who's three thousand miles away and has a lot of friends like you who are in the area, it's frightening to watch. It's frightening to see the stories that are coming out of there.

It's frightened to see the images. It really truly is apocalyptic. It's astonishing. I ended up buying a home in an area that is easy to access, in and out of about, you know, five miles away from palisades, but it's a jungle when you drive through it, this lush, gorgeous trees, brush, canyons. It's, it's, my first take driving through it was, oh, I can't live here. It's just too hard to access. So you're asking these brave and

courageous firefighters and these people of L.A. County who are remarkably courageous, strident, tough. You're asking them, you can't use planes. The winds are 80 miles an hour. People are running out of their cars. It was a scene from an awful movie. And listen, it's, it's just when you get these natural disasters, boy, everybody's looking for perfection and everybody's pointing fingers. there are so many people, a thousand homes. I mean, you will look at aerial footage now. You cannot believe, Chad, what it looks like.

It is literally like a zip code every house burned down. It's awful. It looks like what we see when we get images from war-torn countries. Yeah. Where it's just buildings and cars

that are completely burned out, except it's in the middle of one of the wealthiest areas in the entire country. It's astonishing and devastating to look at. It truly is. It's stunning. Yeah. So just,

I'm glad you're okay. I'm glad you're okay. Yeah. And I know this is a somber tone, but I just, you know, I thought about this today. People, I've gotten, I've gotten 50 texts in the last two days. And I'm one of the lucky ones.

I've got, you know, some kids around that, you know, have kind of been on pins and needles. But it is, There are some heroes in all this stuff because there were houses. Does it ever make you want to leave California?

You know, my wife's not a fan for a lot of reasons, the expense. You know, every place has their issues. It's been pretty well documented. I have purchased a place in Chicago. And so I'm spending more and more time in Chicago because my wife has given so much to me. our relationship and sacrificed, and I've never sacrificed for her and living by her family. And I love the people of Southern California. There's so many things I love about it. But, you know, my wife's not as big a fan, and she misses her sister and her family in the Midwest.

And by the way, I love Chicago, and I still love L.A. But, you know, it's just one of those things where I don't want to ever use a singular reason for being mobile. I like Connecticut. You know, people always used to poke fun at Connecticut. It's boring. And I'm like, I was there a decade. It was fine. I had great friends, great neighbors. High schools were great.

My kids loved it. So I think there's a lot of places in this country to live. And I think the people in every place I've lived in Nevada, Oregon, Washington, California, Connecticut. I spent a lot of time in Rhode Island. Everywhere I go, people are great. Sometimes the politicians aren't. Sometimes the regulations aren't, but the people are amazing. everywhere I go.

Well, look, you know how much I love Chicago as a Chicago in, or, you know, kid from the suburbs of Chicago. I did see your picture the other day wearing your new fancy winter coat, and I felt like he needs to wear a hat. Like, you can't just go with a coat. You got a layer, and you got to wear a hat. Yeah, I did. That's really important, especially like where you live in the city, where your places, you got wind tunnels coming down there. I know. That's dangerous right there.

I know. I wore a hat later in the day. Okay. Let's start. I will tell you one thing, and you'll appreciate this. I know people don't want to hear weather talk, but I will tell you one story and people will like this. So, you know, on the favorites, on the volume podcast network, we do a contest every year, a season long pickum contest. We give away $100,000 over the course of the year. Don't worry, it's not your money, Colin. I just want you to know. We're not giving away your money. All right. But we do give away the winner of the season long contest gets $40,000 first place prize. So we had the winner. on the show today. The winner, by the way, discovered the favorites podcast because he's a fan of Colin Cowherd. And over the years, he has seen me either on television with you at ESPN or on the show with you through the volume and the various things that you've been kind enough to have me on and now with the favorites on the volume podcast network. So that's how he discovered us. His job, he is a farmer in Bow Bell's North Dakota, which is a speck of a town with 300,

people and he lives outside bow bells, which is within the Canadian border, shouting distance, right? So of course, I'm like, you don't get, I said, you don't get days off as a farmer. And North Dakota gets cold. What kind of coat are you wearing to stay warm? And so we went through. He's layering. He's got a good car heart coat.

That's how he stays warm when he's in the tractor and he's watching Red Zone while he's making bets. That's how he's doing it. I feel like you need to make sure you're layering. I just want you to be comfortable. you're in Chicago. I don't want you to find any reason. People.

No two cities in the country get criticized more, but are more fun to be in than Los Angeles and Chicago. L.A. can be a ball. I absolutely love Chicago. I've said my favorite city in the world is London. My second favorite city is Chicago. Dude, my favorite city in the world is London. Oh.

My second favorite city is Chicago. Yeah. You're the fourth person in the last month who has said the exact same thing. I was just talking to a lady the other day about something. She said the same thing. She was a director in Hollywood who was on the Fox lot. And my wife couldn't live in London. It's a bit dreary and gray, but I grew up on the coast of Washington.

I could live in London tomorrow. If I retired tomorrow and just it's over, I would be in London and Chicago. And, you know, I would occasionally go for a sunny week in Miami or something. but I, for those listening, if you've never gone to London, do it in your lifetime. It is historic. It is beautiful. The architecture, the people, the parks, their taxi system, the food's gotten much better, the nightlife, the pubs. It's just fantastic.

I love it. It's every alley you can imagine the history that happened there. It's, you know, I met Stacy. I met my wife in London. We were both students. and I wanted to move back for the past 30 years. I'm dying to go back. Yeah.

And if you save up enough money and you have a budget, Kensington, Paddington, Merle-Laborne... Oh, my God. Oh, God. Jesus. We can do a whole podcast just about where to live in London. Oh, I love it. All right.

People would love that, too. All of our odds provided by draft kings. I'm going to take Ohio State minus six against Texas, And I think Chip Kelly is a big advantage for Ohio State this season. So it's the first time college football playoffs or the NFL. We're going to play 16 games. And I think over the course of a season, Ohio State, we think about that Michigan game. But they've really changed their offense, added layers to it.

And like the NFL, the Chiefs lost of the Raiders late last year. That's okay. Well, it's now okay in college football. You can be awful at home against Michigan and get into the playoffs. I have watched Ohio State's last two games and the games before Michigan. I think they're unbeatable at the college level. I think they're playing with a violence on defense, an explosion and a consistency on offense. I think Will Howard had one awful game and a couple other average ones.

I think he's really good. And my problem with Texas is always the same thing. They're a splash offense. They will score. But they are not consistent. penalties, pass blocking, Quinn Ewers is hot and cold. I think Ohio State is going to run through this thing

to the national championship. What do the guys say, sharper square? It's a little bit square, and there's some recency bias that is going into your thinking. I'm with you. I think that the way Ohio State has played, we talked about this heading into the plas.

The Ohio State fans were so caught up losing to Michigan, they had kind of lost the forest for the trees and didn't understand the new dynamic in college football, which is, it doesn't matter who you lose to during the regular season. You just got to get to the playoffs and then you got to dominate. And then you can judge success based on that. Winning or losing that one game against Michigan is not the key factor in whether or not your season has been successful. So kudos to Ryan Day, kudos to Chip Kelly, kudos to that staff for turning around their season and coming out of the playoffs, into the playoffs,

so hot, so dominant, doing things that they hadn't been doing during the regular season, really utilizing Jeremiah Smith in a way that makes him look like a man amongst boys. However, the same recency bias that is making you think Ohio State is the right side is also making this number leak a little bit higher than it should, right? Power ratings on this are basically Ohio State minus three, maybe minus four.

It's at minus six. And as good as the Ohio State defense is, Texas defense has been as good all season long. Some people will say the best defense, we've seen that defense and what they've done. Quinn yours, yes, he's been inconsistent. And we saw sort of the peak of their inability to move the ball offensively when they played Georgia in that C-C title game, but their defense kept them in that game the entire time. Wise guys will tell you, sure, Quinn Ewers hasn't been consistent, but he did get hurt. And the last couple games, he's been much, much better than he had been as he was coming back from the injury. So I do think that

the wise guys here are looking at Texas because the number has gotten a little too big. It's almost a touchdown. It's six points. That's just a lot of points. So it's been a year in which I tend to play underdogs, and it's been a favorite year. And so I've had a really bad year betting NFL. And if you look at college football and pro football this year, it's look at the playoff. It's been the year of the favorites. Now, some people tell you because of the new kickoff in the NFL where the ball can get

put at the 35-yard line, it's giving good quarterbacks an advantage over the course of a game on possessions that they didn't necessarily need to win. All eight divisions were won by the eight best quarterbacks in their division. It had become a quarterback-centric league a decade ago. That was an edge, the new kickoff rules, that the better quarterbacks didn't need. They were winning despite that, and now they're winning in clear fashion. That said, I'm going to take the Steelers plus nine and a half against the Ravens. Zay Flowers is out.

I know Pittsburgh hasn't been playing well, but I just watched Baltimore Clobber Pittsburgh. I do know this. Pittsburgh has a ton of pride. They're very good on defense. Baltimore in the playoffs, memo to everybody that's watched them the last six years, they tend to play better in the regular season than the postseason. This number is out of whack to me.

I'll take Pittsburgh plus nine and a half, sharper square. Yeah, it's sharp. The number got to 10 and now it got back down to nine and a half. So there was some buyback there. I wouldn't be surprised if it goes a little bit lower. it was much higher, it was much lower earlier in the week. It was a seven and a half. And when it was seven and a half, it got bet up quite a bit by the wise guys.

You mentioned a couple really important things. And this is something I'm going to spend a lot of time in the offseason doing, is really taking a look at the impact of the new kickoff rules on how teams covered or didn't cover and did it really favor the favors. Because I think there was sort of some unintended consequence here. If you have a good quarterback and you're at the 30, you complete two passes. All of a sudden, you're on the other side of the field. If it's fourth and short, you might be more inclined to go for it earlier in the game

on fourth down because you feel like, well, I might have a chance to get back here more quickly because of the way the kickoff rules are. And I also think coaches are just more inclined to go for it on fourth down. So a combination of the kickoff rules and more aggressive decision making based on the analytics has made it easier and more likely that favorites are going to cover. Will that be a trend that goes forward? We don't know yet. I want to have a year's worth of data now that we have it to look at it and review.

Because I think it's fascinating and I think it will be something that people have to make adjustments for going into next year. On this game, you mentioned the game, they played on the 21st of December. That game was pretty close through about three quarters. It was the last 90 seconds of the quarter when things start. started to go out of control for the Steelers, right? But one of the big factors in that game, Joey Porter missed the entire second half.

When he was out, it went from the Steelers having a little bit of wiggle room to stay close to needing to all of a sudden be perfect. And they couldn't be perfect. Russell through that pick six. They lost 34 to 17. So this is a huge number in a game where people are thinking about the Steelers.

who, by the way, that was the second game of what became a four-game losing streak in which they didn't score more than 17 points. The Ravens haven't scored fewer than 30 points since early December. So there is a huge, we're talking about recency bias, right, with Texas and Iowa State. The recency bias in this game is massively in favor of the Ravens, which is when you want to play the Steelers. Also, this series, historic. it's never this big of a number, and it's always a game that's within the spread. So that's another reason why you might want to think about the Steelers. NFL playoffs? We're talking about NFL playoffs. You bet we are. Get in on the action at

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What's the news, name? Huge news. We created our own podcast called, Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast? Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to a... We're the first people to do podcasts. Pretty, yeah, pretty wide range of podcasts.

We're starting a trend. But this one's extra special. So how do we actually come up with a name, Hey Jonas, guys? I honestly don't remember. I think it was on a call about what we should call it. And, well, we were thinking I'm originally calling it one of the early names of our band before Jonas Brothers. This is how you guys remember it going down? Yes.

I have a very different memory of this. We were talking about a thing, a bit for the podcast, where people could call in and say, hey, Jonas. And then I wrote down on my little notepad, Hey Jonas, and offered it up as a potential title for the podcast. But thanks for remembering that, guys. Listen to Hey Jonas on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. Another podcast from some SNL late night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and

head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam, it's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano, and our podcast Point Game is about defying the odds. Like LeBron heading into the playoffs without Luca and Austin Reed. And finding ways to win no matter what. He's the smartest player to ever play the game.

His IQ is at a level that we've never seen before. And he knows, without Luca and Austin Reeves, I got to manipulate the game. We get a player's perspective on the challenges of the playoffs. I think Joker's going to be exhausted this series because when they don't have Rudy in the lineup, he has to really guard guys like Nas Reid. He has to guard Julius Randall. And then he has to give us everything he gives us

on the night-to-night basis on offense. And when IT's friends stop by, like Quentin Richardson, we dive into some playoff history too. Steve Nash would get that thing. That man, hell get to fly. He running up the court, licking his fingers, why he got the bar. Like, you go through a training camp with that, Isaiah.

You figure it out. quick. Get your ass up and down the court and you're going to get the bomb. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Agency. The ability to know that we're the experts in our own body. On the podcast, cultivating her space, Dr. Dom and Terry Lomax create a space where black

women can show up fully and be heard. I wholeheartedly think, you know, you hit 30. You shouldn't have to share one with anybody. Mm-hmm. From navigating friendships and heal. to setting boundaries and prioritizing your mental health. These are real, honest conversations. We don't always get to have out loud.

Totally unreasonable with different parts of life, right? Like, oh, have all three meals and make sure you're mindful during all of them? Absolutely not. During one meal, I'm standing. I'm standing and handing my children food. Because healing, empowerment, and resilience aren't just ideas, their practices. And this Mental Health Awareness Month, there's no better to tell you. to pour back into yourself.

Listen to cultivating her space on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcast. This week on Crimless, we're joined by our first ever guest. Sorry, our first ever human guest. I don't think I could be in the same room with Shamrock the pair. I'd be too nervous. That's right. The very funny, Will Farrell joins Rory Scoble and me, Josh Dean,

for an episode dedicated to the many crimes committed. by people also named Will Farrell. They called to his fellow officer for the nippers. What are the nippers? Very good question. No, I was thinking, would that be a good name for like a salad dressing? Simple assault. And it's a play on word, salt?

Maybe not. I say we invest and we see. There's only one way to know. This did not amuse the cops. By the way, normally the cops are amused, but this did not abuse the cops. Will even comes clean about some of his own crimes. I didn't get caught. You know why? If you don't want to be suspected of anything, you whistle as you walk. Listen to Criminless on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast.

My favorite bet of the weekend is Eagles at Home minus four and a half. Jordan Love is not healthy. Christian Watson is not available. Now they have depth at wide receiver. But I thought before the concussion, I really thought Jalen Hertz was playing for about a month's I thought the offense was about as good as it could be. I thought the, first of all, they are good enough to just run between the tackles, and they were doing that plus outside the tackles, plus throwing deep. Everything was humming. Green Bay is a team. Jordan Love is cut down on mistakes, but the organization told you in the offseason,

we're going to pivot off our identity. It's a little too much Jordan Love, and he can be a bit reckless. So they've become a team kind of built to play with a lead. Power run game control the clock. You will not do that against Philadelphia. Their best hope as a good first quarter offense is to score early, control the tempo. But I think this is a game where Philadelphia will control the clock and Green Bay will be forced into situations to make splash plays. And Jordan Love and I like him can get a little Sam Darnold on you really fast.

I like Philadelphia a lot in this spot, Sharper Square. So the wise guys were with you when the line opened at three and a half. Here's it at three and a half. I bet it at three and a half. At four, I bet it at four. Four and a half, it's getting into that range where you're still going to find professional bettors who love the Eagles for everything you just said. But Matt LaFleur has a lot of respect in the betting community.

He has been one of the better coaches against the spread during his tenure, especially as a dog. They are starting to see him as Mike Tomlin asking the way he can scheme not just the first 15 scripted plays but throughout a game and keep his team

in a very close game especially like four and a half points in a playoff game between these two teams is a lot. So there is a portion of the betting community that is looking to buy the Packers at plus four and a half.

From an on the field scheme point of view, everyone who's betting on the Eagles is doing it because of what you just said. Their defensive line, Jalen Carter. Jalen Carter, if you pull the players, which it happens, you are allowed to vote for all pro as a player, you can't vote for yourself or anyone on your team.

To play with the second most votes with Jalen Carter. Like, he is just so good right now and so dominant, and the one thing we know the Packers want to do, we've seen him do it all year. You see every graphic for every game, that is televised with the Packers, some point in the first 15 minutes of game time, you're going to see a graphic about

how well the Packers do with Josh Jacobs and how dominant he is running the ball early in the game. And then all of a sudden, teams adjust. He doesn't run as well later in the game. It's left up to Jordan Love and they can't execute as well in the second half. So, yeah, if people are betting the Eagles, it's because of what they can do defensively.

Not to mention, by the way, how good they are in coverage from the middle linebacker, from the linebacking position all the way through their secondary. Just powerful. Like, if I'm buying a Super Bowl future right now, I might buy the Eagles at plus 700. The lions are about plus 280. Do I think there's that big of a delta between the lines and the Eagles, given how good the Eagles defense is? Probably not.

I like the bucks at home minus three, not the best of the line, but here's the issue. Baker Mayfield will have a great run game behind him. The commanders run defense below average. The Buccaneers run offense is exceptional. Jaden Daniels, a rookie quarterback on the road, will have a run game that will struggle. Vitavilla and the interior D-line of the Bucks is pretty impenetrable. So if I go into a game and I get the veteran quarterback at home

that will have the complement of a strong run game, that feels like about as good a bet as you can have, Bucks minus three sharper square. Totally sharp. Wise guys love this spot. They love a ball in Baker Mayfield against a rookie quarterback in the playoffs. We've got a couple spots here. Rookie quarterbacks slash quarterbacks who are playing in the postseason for the first time, right? We've got three spots. We've got Sam Darnold. We got Bo Nix. We got Jaden Daniels. The wise guys love the Bucks here because of Bucky Irving, because of the running game, because they think the commanders have been getting buy on Jaden Daniels and a little bit of luck. And they've got six games. They won in the final seconds of the game. They were barely, they were losing to Trey Lance, right, with Jaden Daniels playing.

It was Jaden Daniels out of the game. Marcus Marriota comes in. Like they were losing to the Eagles. They were going to get run off the field against the Eagles until Jalen Hertz got that concussion. And then they still needed a miracle to win that game because Kenny Pickett, played well for about five minutes in that game. And it was the most important five minutes when the Eagles had to drive down the field.

And if not for a Devante Smith drop, they win that game. So the commanders have been brilliant. Dan Quinn, great job. Jaden Daniels, rookie of the year. But the playoffs are a different ballgame and the wise guys are seeing so much love from the public for the commanders there on the Buccaneers. So Greg Kosell said something on my show today.

And Nick Wright made fun of me this week. He goes, in my herd hierarchy, I had the Rams one spot below the Vikings. And he said, once you pick the game, you're going to pick the Rams over the Vikings, and you have the Vikings over the Rams. I said, no, no, no. And then Greg Kossel showed up on my show today. And he said, the Rams defensive line against the Vikings offensive line, the film tells you, Minnesota's in trouble here.

Yeah. And so the Rams are getting a point and a half. I'm going to listen to Greg CoSell. I'm going to go against my belief. I do get the better quarterback. I think I get as good a coach. I'm at home. And the Rams are as healthy as any team in the league right now.

They have everybody, which is just remarkably good fortune. They were beat up until like, I mean, like November 1st. Yeah. Rams plus one and a half sharper square. Totally sharp. The line move from two and a half down to one and a half. Honestly, it might be Rams minus one by kickoff. So I do encourage people, if you're listening to this,

try to get the Rams as an underdog if you can. That scenario, a new quarterback to the postseason versus a veteran quarterback, that is historically at a very high percentage advantageous from a cover point of view to the veteran quarterback. And Matthew Stafford, to me, we've talked about this before. If there are any quarterback, I don't want to have the ball at the end of the game if I have bet the other side. Matthew Stafford is top five, right?

Like it's Stafford, it's Mahomes, it's Josh Allen, it's a little bit of Lamar. Like those are the quarterbacks that you really are afraid, Joe Burrow, like those are the quarterbacks that you're afraid of. Wise guys feel the same way. They love Matthew Stafford. The thing that gets interesting, and this helps you. justify a little bit the hierarchy and why you had the Rams one below the Vikings. If you look at the Rams after that Bill's game where Matthew Stafford was nearly perfect and they played perfect football and they played the kind of football that everyone who has been

backing the Rams and loves the Rams knows they can play. It was a perfect Sean McVeigh game. Kyrin Williams has been brilliant this year at top three running back in the NFL. Stafford has been very inconsistent with Puka, Nukua, and Cooper Cup. Like, there have been times where you think they're going to be brilliant and they're good for like a series. And so they lose to the dolphins.

They get lucky beating the Niners. They struggle against the Jets. Like, these things happen over the last month of the season. I think that's why you might have had them below the Vikings. But now the season has ended. The second season, and has begun. We're going to find out, do we have the Matthew Stafford and Sean McVeigh and Kyron Williams that we all believe they can be? Because that's what betters are doing.

Professional betters are saying, yes, we think they will have benefited from having this past week off and that the Vikings are starting on a downward trend. And Sam Donald might be a little bit happy feet because his offensive line isn't as good as it had been. There's always a game I want you to explain to me. it is very easy to talk yourself into bills at home minus eight and a half against a rookie quarterback. But Sean Payton has been really good on the road in the playoffs in his career. And I've watched Buffalo at different times this year. I've watched their defense get shredded.

I mean, you go back to the Rams game. That's the best the Rams offense has been all year against anybody. Bad teams, good teams. They did whatever they wanted to against Buffalo. I watched Drake May in New England give them trouble a couple weeks ago. Something is telling me eight and a half's too big. But God, Buffalo can be such a freight train offensively. Tell me where I should go here.

So look, the wise guys are completely split on this. It has been a stubborn, stubborn number. It was at seven and a half on Sunday night when the playoff seatings were, you know, just about set for the AFC. And it lasted for a hot minute. And then it was at eight and a half. And all these lines this week, they've been bouncing around.

You know, the Chargers and the Texans was three, two and a half, three, two and a half. And the Rams has gone from two and a half to one and a half. And even the Steelers and the and the Ravens has gone from seven and a half to eight and a half, nine, nine and a half, nine and a half. This one was so stubborn.

It sat on eight and a half. literally until late Thursday morning. It finally, finally ticked up to nine. Because what's happening is there's this money coming in from professional betters on both sides for everything you just said. They're afraid of this bill's defense.

Don't forget, like the bills used to do things like blow out the dolphins, right? They let the dolphins stay in it this year. Their defense has just not been very good. The things that was, guys who want to bet the bills like is that Bonix has just been much worse against

zone than against man. The bills play a lot of zone. A rookie quarterback in the first playoff game historically does not cover the spread. They feel like this is a game where Josh Allen can get everything right. And sometimes the bills do blow out inferior opponents. The Broncos have been

terrible against teams with a winning record one in seven this year. Minus 37 point differential. Sean Payton scares a lot of people. He is, he's one of those coaches, right? Mike Vrable, Mike Tomlin, Matt LaFlor, Bill Belichick, over the past generation, who guys do not like to bet against in a big number. I think what did it for me, I bet the bills, eight and a half, I could be wrong. It's a 50-50 split. What did it for me is I think the bills

are going to be winning. And I think Sean Payton's going to have to put Bill Nix in a position where he's got to make uncomfortable throws. And we've seen it often enough this year. Go back to that Bengals game, he threw the interception right to a guy, right? And they had the game locked up. So I think that could happen at the end of the game, and that's a next factor for me to bet on the bills. Finally, it's stayaway game for me, Chargers minus three at the Texans. I think the Chargers win. Where do you land on it? I bet the Chargers. I bet the Chargers at two and a half. We talked a lot about this on the show today, and the wise guys are lining up behind Houston. I don't get it.

It feels a little bit trappy to me. The team that the Texans have been all season, they're not going to be a different team all of a sudden. They've been inconsistent week to week, half to half all year. They've been inconsistent. C.J. Stroud has been terrible against two high safeties. That's what the Chargers like to play. The strength of the Texans defense is the pressure they can get from their defensive ends.

The strength of the Chargers' offensive line are there two. Pro Bowl, offensive tackles. Justin Herbert does not turn the ball over. To me, the key to the season and winning, and I have been betting the Chargers consistently at the end of the season, and we've seen this over and over again, is why I think favorites have been winning.

Good quarterbacks. You've talked about that whole year. Impeccable, unimpeachable decision-making. More and more. It used to be, you know this. it used to be if you're a head coach, your only job on Sunday, manage the timeouts, be there to tell someone if they're going to go forward on fourth down. Those decisions are becoming more important throughout the game,

how you're managing the last two minutes of a half, going for it more often on fourth down. That used to be a variance of two to three times a game. Now it could be four or five times a game. Jim Harbaugh just beat the Broncos by managing the end of the first half in that game so well. that changed the game for the chargers and change the game for the Broncos. So I don't want to bet against Jim Harba as a short favorite, even though it's on the road and the wise guys are saying otherwise. Sharper Square, Chad Millman, co-host of the favorites, as always, buddy.

I can't wait. Starting tonight, we're doing this Thursday afternoon. Starting tonight, I'll take Notre Dame close over Penn State, low-scoring game, probably like the under. Good talking to you. Good talking to you. Glad you safe, buddy. The volume. Hey guys, it's us. The Jonas Brothers. I'm Joe. I'm Kevin. And I'm Nick. And guess what? We created our own podcast called Hey Jonas. We invented a podcast. Well, we didn't invent it. We just contributed to it.

We're the first people to do podcasts. We get to ask other people questions because we're sick and tired of being asked questions. Well, sick and tired is a strong way to put it. But, you know, tired and sick. Listen to Hey Jonas on the Iheart radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Just listen. We don't care where you hear it. from some SNL late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and Friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter. Where does your group perform?

We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. What's up, fam, it's Isaiah Thomas. And I'm C.J. Toledano. It's our favorite time of the year on our podcast, Point Game, the playoffs. We're digging into the biggest surprises of the season.

And I'm looking back on some of my greatest playoff moments. If we didn't talk ever again, I was part of it. You just understood. That's how personal it got. Wow. Then after that Game 7, Marquis keep coming to. He's like, you know I love you, dog. You know, it's all love.

This was just playoffs. This was just basketball. So listen to Point Game on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. Hey, I'm Deanna Maria Riva, and on my new podcast, How Hard Can It Be? I call on my Gen X squad from Ohio to Hollywood as we navigate Midlife's most fantastic BS. Unfiltered conversations from night sweats to fupas to scheduling sex. Wait, what sex?

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