The Herd with Colin Cowherd - Colin Cowherd Podcast - McVay Future, Westbrook Credit + Week 9 ‘Sharp’ or ‘Square’

Episode Date: November 4, 2022

First, Colin explains why he’s confused by constant rumors about Sean McVay retiring from coaching, why Russell Westbrook deserves a ton of credit, and why he rolls his eyes at media bellyaching ove...r Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover. Then the Action Network's Chad Millman tells Colin if his NFL Week 9 picks are "sharp" or "square". They look at Chargers/Falcons (17:00), Vikings/Commanders (19:00), Packers/Lions (22:00), Dolphins/Bears (24:00), Ravens/Saints (26:00), Colts/Patriots (28:00), Raiders/Jags (31:00), and Seahawks/Cardinals (32:00). Follow Colin and The Volume on Twitter for the latest content and updates, and visit FanDuel for the best wagering and daily fantasy action! #Herd #VolumeSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 This is an I-Heart podcast. Guaranteed Human. Another podcast from some SNL, late-night comedy guy, not quite. Unhumor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer, Streeter Seidel, help an a cappella band with their between songs banter.
Starting point is 00:00:23 Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and friends on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal, but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque.
Starting point is 00:00:42 Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the IHard Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. The Volume. It's the Colin Coward podcast presented by Fandul.
Starting point is 00:01:13 Football seasons here, no better place to get in on the action. FanDul app is safe. You get paid fast. A lot of ways to play. The spread, the money line, team totals, players, props, a lot of stuff. Over unders. Jump into the action. Same game parlays are my favorite.
Starting point is 00:01:31 Just use the promo code Colin and download the Fandul app today. Hi, everybody. Welcome in. Good stuff today. I'm not going to lie. Been on a little bit of a heater lately. Three straight blazing five winning weeks. Feeling pretty good about myself. Let me start by saying this. A couple times a year, I know that, you know, I'm on all these platforms and I don't reach out a lot.
Starting point is 00:02:05 But I also think it's important to thank you from time to time. So a couple times a year I want to come out and just say, hey, thank you very much for our support. So I got some information yesterday on a lot of different things at the volume and premier radio. Iheart radio on my radio show. We had over 30 million downloads, podcast downloads, just on my radio show for October. Shattered every record we had. Well over 30 million. And I just want to say thank you for that support.
Starting point is 00:02:39 There's a million choices out there. I added Jason McIntyre to the show, and I think he's funny. And I can pitch him shit. He pitches it back. You know, anytime you bring on somebody new to the show, it's a new show. And so I think he's done a really nice job to ingratiate himself to the staff, to come in. He loves his gambling. He really is a well-connected guy.
Starting point is 00:03:03 So he's been terrific. And it makes me really happy because I've known Jason for over a decade. he's a total grinder. He's my kind of guy. And he's just having great success. The audience is responding. And it makes me really, really happy. He's a great guy, works hard, family man.
Starting point is 00:03:20 And so again, thank you for your support. Three things I want to talk about. Number one, Sean McVeigh has intimated like two or three times in the last six months that he's going to retire early. You know, he's 36 years old, going to retire early. And I laugh at this. Pete Carroll is 70 years old. Have you ever seen him on the sideline? Does he look miserable?
Starting point is 00:03:47 You know who's miserable? Old guys walking around with their wives at a mall at 74 years old. They don't want to be doing that. They got nothing to do. Go to any mall in America at 10 in the morning. See guys with those tennis shoes on, 75-year-old men, you know, the kind of you Velcro. and they're sitting over there wearing their dockers walking around and they're fucking miserable. Absolutely miserable.
Starting point is 00:04:15 They can't wait to be able to have their first gin and tonic at a 12, 15 in the afternoon. They want to be sauce by the time Matlock comes on. Sean McVeigh will never find anything that makes him happier. And I'm not talking like wife, kid, obviously. That's the happiest I ever am or you are. But this idea of this race to retire. Come on, man. Folks, many of you hate me.
Starting point is 00:04:41 Here's the bad news. I'm going to die on the air. I'm going to be 88 years old giving sports takes. My teeth are going to fall out of my mouth on the air. And then the Dodgers were a World Series. My teeth will fall out, my dentures. I talk sports. These guys coach football.
Starting point is 00:05:04 Talking sports keeps me young. coaching football. Coaching 27-year-olds keeps you young. This race to retire. I get it if you work at a lug nut factory. Don't get me wrong. I get it if you lift stuff. Totally get it if you work in a factory.
Starting point is 00:05:19 Totally get it. You know, there's some manufacturing jobs that are really tough on people. Don't get me wrong. That's a different life. But when I hear coaches and broadcasters and politicians, I mean, there's a reason that people running for president are in their late 70s. because you don't lift anything. How about new rule?
Starting point is 00:05:39 If you don't lift stuff, work as long as you can. But Andy Reed, Nick Saban, Pete Carroll, I'm sorry. They don't look miserable to me. They look engaged. They look like they're in the game. I know. Some of you hate me. Gonna have to live with it.
Starting point is 00:05:58 I'm in my 50s now. I got 30 years of sports takes. And you know what? they're just going to get better and better. Let's talk Russell Westbrook. Gotta be honest. He drives me crazy. But I was almost shocked.
Starting point is 00:06:22 I'm not shocked by anything. Well, O.J. Simpson down the L.A. freeway, white Bronco, that caught me off guard. And learning that Andre Agassiz did meth. He wrote about that in the book. Got to be honest. Never saw that one coming. Did not think Andre Agassiz did meth. It was like, whoa, left field.
Starting point is 00:06:44 By and large, nothing really surprises me in sports. Nothing really surprises me. But Russell Westbrook has always been sort of a rigid player, right? Rigid personality. We've seen him slap his hands at kids or move this, move that fan. And the fact that in like a week or two weeks time got a hundred million net worth, Hall of Famer, eventually, that Russell Westbrook would say, Yeah, I'm going to come off the bench and crush it.
Starting point is 00:07:11 You know what? Good for Russell Westbrook. Sometimes it's very difficult to tell successful, wealthy people to make a big change or that they're the problem. We can all crap on Russell Westbrook. But for him to make that change, Darvin Ham deserves Coach of the Year votes here in November. is Westbrook drives me crazy. But I think one of the hardest things to do to take successful rich people
Starting point is 00:07:43 and tell them, you're the problem. Because they have all the money they need. They've been told how great they are. They don't have to do it. He could just say, no, I'm not going to come off the bench. I'm going to blow up the team.
Starting point is 00:07:55 I think it's the most impressed I've ever been with Russell Westbrook. His ability to evolve, self-awareness. How long did it take Carmelo Anthony to come to terms with, dude, you're a bench player? He couldn't do it for years. He laughed at people who suggested it. Westbrook did it in like two weeks. Tip of the cap.
Starting point is 00:08:13 What to go, dude? Totally respect that. So it's a weird thing happening in society. Elon Musk is going to change Twitter. And, you know, who knows what's going to happen? I am a believer that any time you create a barrier to entry, you clean up a place. I used to do radio remotes when I was just a radio guy and you'd let anybody come. It was free.
Starting point is 00:08:34 And, I mean, it looked like the canteen is seen from Star Wars. I mean, if you gave people a free keychain, it was brutal. And it's just like, let's do remotes. Let's have some barrier to entry here. Come on. So if Twitter charges $8 a month to get verified or to be verified people, you're going to clean some bots up and clean the bigotry and the bots and these people that just attack women. It's just gross.
Starting point is 00:09:02 I think a smaller Twitter is a better Twitter. But we do live in a funny world now that adults have become children and children are forced to become adults. Remember all you adults out there? I'll never watch the NFL because of Cap or Nick. A year later, their ratings were up. You're watching it.
Starting point is 00:09:22 Even though their hearts in the right place, I'll never watch the Browns with Deshawn Watson. Yeah, I think he's gross too. But I bet if you check in in two or three years, Browns fans will have watched the Cleveland Browns. Your heart's in the right place with that one, but you'll watch it. I'm not going to join Twitter for $8. I'm out.
Starting point is 00:09:43 I guarantee you not a single blue checkmark of note is out. You know how long I've been hearing this? I'm quitting this. I won't do that. I won't do that. I'm never coming back. Bye. Bye.
Starting point is 00:09:58 See you. Everybody was going to move to Canada or Europe because this conservative's elected or this. Republicans elected, bye-bye. You don't have to announce it. It's not an airport. You don't have to announce when you're leaving. You know, you don't have to, there's no flight you have to give us a heads up on. Just go. And yet kids now are forced to sometimes be the adults in the family. Hey, dad, I don't think you should go to the Capitol on January 6th. Hey, mom and dad, I think you're losing your identity in your mind going MAGA. Like, I'm an independent. All right. So I'm a socially left-leaning, you know, independent. I don't really care. But, I mean, I care, but I'll go either way on this stuff.
Starting point is 00:10:45 But we are forcing kids all over America to have to engage with their parents and tell them to grow up and act like adults. And adults are becoming children. You give them that little phone and they're, I'm not going to do this and I'm not going to watch this. And I'm not going to go. Yeah, you are. Folks, if these threats mattered, I'd have. have no audience. If these threats mattered, I would have absolutely no audience. I had a petition once at ESPN over 16,000 signatures to get rid of me. My bosses loved it. They said, that's the
Starting point is 00:11:19 price of relevance. You're becoming something. People are making threats constantly in our society. Don't buy it. I won't do this. I won't do this. I'll never come back. The fact, I always look at it this way. If you are so viscerally connected to, like, my show, that you reach out to yell or scream at me, you're a fan. Now, some of my fans hate me, some like me, but you're a fan. And that's all I'm trying to do. Connect with people emotionally. I hope I'm mostly right. Sometimes I'm wrong. I'm good with it. I'm a public figure. Take your shots. Take your swings. But just maybe next time you make a big threat. I won't watch the NFL because of cap or naked.
Starting point is 00:12:08 I won't pay $8. Go hug your kids. They're now the adults and the family. Listen, these days, every new potential hire can feel like a high-stakes wager for your small business, right? The margins have never been tighter. You want to be 100% certain. You have access to the best qualified candidates and fast.
Starting point is 00:12:30 That's why you should check out LinkedIn jobs. Number one in delivering quality hires in America, LinkedIn jobs. Listen, never been easier to create a free job post on LinkedIn and find a great employee. Add your job in the purple hashtag hiring frame to your LinkedIn profile, by the way, spreads the word faster. Screening questions, simple tools, make it easy to focus on candidates with the right skills. Every business owner knows how important it is to finish the year out strong. You need the right team members. LinkedIn jobs.
Starting point is 00:13:06 Go there right now. Post your job for free. LinkedIn.com slash Colin. LinkedIn.com slash Colin. Terms and conditions apply. College football is back, baby. And now is the perfect time to download Fandulul America's number one sports book. Right now, new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000.
Starting point is 00:13:33 That's free bets. back if your first bet doesn't win. The promo code is always Colin. Fandul has tons of betting options. I like the same game parlay. Bet a little, win a lot. Fan Duel's app is safe, secure, easy to use, and you get paid your winnings really fast.
Starting point is 00:13:52 The no sweat first bet up to $1,000. promo code Colin. Make every moment more this season with Fandul. 21 plus and present in Arizona, Colorado, Connecticut, Indiana, and Louisiana. Permitted Parishes only. Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Tennessee, Virginia, or West Virginia. First online, real money wager only, refund issued as non-withdrawable site credit that
Starting point is 00:14:12 expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook. Fandul.com. Gambling problem, 1-800 next step or text next step to 5334-2-Arizona, 188-8-9-7-7-7-17 or visit ctchat. Connecticut, 1-800 gambler or visit Fandul.com slash RG and Colorado, Indiana, Jersey and Virginia.
Starting point is 00:14:29 18777-7-0-1-1-7-1-1-7 for confidential help in Michigan. 1877 H-O-P-E-N-Y or text H-O-P-E-N-Y 4-6-7-369 in New York, Tennessee. Redline, 1-800-8-9-9-7-89, Tennessee. Visit 1-800-Gambler.net in West Virginia. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games. Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential.
Starting point is 00:14:55 Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. A win is a win. A win is a win.
Starting point is 00:15:17 I don't care which I'm saying. Yep, that's me, Cliver Taylor the 4th. You might have seen the skits, the reactions, my journey from basketball to college football, or my career in sports media. Well, somewhere along the way, this platform became bigger than I ever imagined. And now I'm bringing all of that excitement
Starting point is 00:15:34 to my brand-new podcast, The Clifford Show. This is a place for raw, unfiltered conversations with some of your favorite athletes, creators, and voices that not only deserve to be heard, but celebrated. One week, I'll take you behind the scenes of the biggest moments in sports and entertainment, and the next we'll talk about life, mental health, purpose, and even music. The Clifford Show isn't just a podcast, it's a space for honest conversations, stories that don't always get told, and for people who are chasing something bigger.
Starting point is 00:16:01 So, if you've ever supported me, or you're just chasing down a dream, this is right where you need to be. Listen to the Clifford show on the IHeart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcast. And for more behind the scenes, follow at Clifford and at TikTok Podcast Network on TikTok. All right, Chad Millman, CCO Action Network, all odds provided by Fanduel.
Starting point is 00:16:26 I had another winning week thanks to the Cleveland Browns. Didn't think it would be that ugly, but it was. I have been on this belief that the NFL scoring's come down. I'm taking more dogs than ever, and I've always preferred dogs, but I'm taking like four out of five. dogs a week. When points come at a scarcity, I'll take them a lot. And Chad Millman's joining us. I'll tell you the first one that jumps out to me is the chargers are still banged up.
Starting point is 00:16:52 The Falcons are getting points at home. I don't trust the chargers at all. I don't know if they're well coached. And I will say this. I think there's real misgivings in that locker room with what's happening. The play calling, continued injuries. I don't love historically taking the Falcons, but this looks like the play, sharper square. Totally sharp play right here for everything you just said. Real lack of trust from a bettors point of view. I'm not going to try to speculate what's happening in the locker room. I don't know anyone there.
Starting point is 00:17:25 But I can tell you that from a betting point of view, there's not a lot of faith in what the chargers are doing offensively. They seem to have a pretty standard game plan in which the play is, try to get some yarders first and second, and then have Justin Herbert try to bail them out on third down. And what really matters here are two other things that you mentioned. One, the coaching, two, the injuries. Now, for the injuries, you don't know what you're going to be getting from the wide receiver positions. You know you're not going to have your best left tackle.
Starting point is 00:17:59 You know you're not going to have your best defensive end. Justin Herbert hasn't been amazing in the clutch plays that he has been amazing at, or at least made us think he was a potential Super Bowl contender in years past. But a lot of this is about the coaching. Like, betters continue to be impressed with Arthur Smith and what he is doing with the Falcons. The run scheme they're developing. Yes. The way they're able to plug anyone in there and they can consistently get yards on the ground and control the game.
Starting point is 00:18:33 And they like a home team getting three points. It's a good spot for them. I'll throw another one at you. This is weird. I don't even, I can't believe I'm saying this. Commanders plus three against the Vikings. Now, a couple weeks ago, when the Niners got Christian McCaffrey, first of all, they spent a day trying to make the deal work,
Starting point is 00:18:54 and then they spent a lot of practice time trying to get him, you know, integrated into the offense. Minnesota is going to do the same thing. They're going to spend a lot of time on T.J. Hawkinson. Those are rough weeks, right? you're spending a little more time than you would. There's a new player. I'll say this about the commanders.
Starting point is 00:19:13 Taylor Heineke may not be Carson Wentz. They play better with him. They play better with him. That's all I care about. Said about Bailey Zappy. I don't know if he's better than Mack, but sometimes I think they play better with him. Sharper Square, I take the points and the commanders.
Starting point is 00:19:27 This is probably the sharpest bet on the board. There's two bets that are really, really sharp right now. Lines have moved a decent amount when we're talking about key numbers, three, four, et cetera. This game opened to three and a half, got bet down to three. I think there's a couple of things going on here. One, the perception is way, way off on how good the Vikings are and what the commanders have been. And I think a lot of people are still thinking about the commanders as the Carson Wentz team, not the Taylor Heineke team. Taylor Heineke, we've talked about this. QBR, same as Carson Wentz for his career. Completion percentage, same as Carson Wentz.
Starting point is 00:20:06 and he's more mobile. So you're getting a better playmaker, who also, let's break it down by the game, the Vikings are terrible guarding against the other team's number one receiver. Taylor Heineke is going to the number one receiver, Terry McLaurin, more often than Carson Wentz did, right? The Vikings have been incredibly lucky this year. We do the luck rankings.
Starting point is 00:20:28 This is one of those games where the luck ranking discrepancy is so high between the Vikings and the commanders. There's every single the past three, weeks. The commanders are top 10 in expected points per play, right? So they're measuring how many points would you expect to get on a particular play in a vacuum? Commanders are playing exceptionally well. Commanders on defense, 26% in pressure rate. That's in the top five. Kirk against pressure, 26 in the league is a passer. So there's a lot of things that are lining up for the commanders to be the team that wise guys are backing.
Starting point is 00:21:04 This seems obvious, but I take a little pride in calling the Jets over the Packers weeks ago, and I said, I just don't think Green Bay is very good. Detroit at home is pretty good. But if it's at three and a half, a division rival, a Green Bay team, we have to be honest here. Everything is underperforming. I take Detroit, Sharper Square. Yeah, you got to take Detroit. And it is the sharp play. It's one that wise guys are starting to hold their nose a little bit,
Starting point is 00:21:36 whereas earlier in the year, all of the wise guys loved the lions. And the lions were covering for them. And then there were a couple weeks where they got outplayed in New England. They had a game against the Cowboys where they probably should have covered, but the box score showed a different result than what actually happened sort of in the game and what you could have expected. They were big on the Lions this past week against Miami and ended up being put. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:22:03 Yeah, right. And it ends up being a push, right? The Lions closed at four. The game ended 31-27. A lot of people were nervous about going back to back the Lions again, but the bookmakers are hanging the hook, right? That half point is called a hook, three and a half. And the fewest points the Lions have scored at home this season is 27 this past week.
Starting point is 00:22:24 They barely had DeAndre Swift playing. Everyone expected him to play. That's why they liked him so much, why they liked the Lions so much this past week. The Packers, they can't. even get to 27. And the lines have been doing this against defenses that are much, much better than the Packers. So they've got a real advantage here. Let's say it's a shootout. I think that's going to favor of the lines. And divisional home dogs, the under six, the past four seasons, a sample size north of 100 covered a 50% clip. So precedent and what you're seeing on the field is playing to your favor. Okay, I'm going to throw a favor at you. The weather in Chicago is going to be okay. I looked it up. Sloppy Saturday, fine Sunday. I think we have to come to terms with Miami. It's a pretty good football team.
Starting point is 00:23:10 Bradley Chub will come in and just roughs a passer. Four and a half's a lot. But the weather is not a factor. I think we're starting to doubt Tua a lot. And they've given up now, Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn. Those are two of their best defensive players. It's not as fearsome as it was defensively 10 days ago. Now, I think Eber Luce is an excellent coach,
Starting point is 00:23:35 but those guys are really high-end players. Those are difference makers. I'm going to go with Miami here and also Chase Claypool. I think he'll be great. I don't think he's great. Sunday. I'm going to take Miami a favorite here, Sharper Square. Totally square.
Starting point is 00:23:51 This was the other game that we got the most feedback about this week on the favorites. We'll do our shop calls segment. The wise guys will call us after our early week. podcast and then on the late week podcast will give you listeners feedback on what they most talked about. The two games they most talked about, Washington, I mentioned that earlier, and the Bears. And this game has moved from five and a half down to five to four and a half, even after the Bradley Chubb trade, which you would expect, okay, the dolphins who people think is a stronger
Starting point is 00:24:25 team just got stronger. It didn't move after the Chase Claypool trade. It moved after the Bradley Chub trade into direction. direction of the bears. Here's what I think about what you just said regarding Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith. This defense was terrible, truly terrible. It didn't matter if you had Rowan Smith, didn't matter if you had Robert Quinn. He hadn't done anything this year. Roquant Smith was making all those tackles because the bears have nobody else. So he's the only guy in a position to do anything and they still weren't very good. What they have done now, since they had that Thursday
Starting point is 00:24:59 night meltdown against Washington. They have realized how to use Justin Fields. They are putting them in more RPO's, more design runs. He is getting rid of the ball faster. Now they've gotten him a weapon and chase Claypool. They're building this guy's confidence game to game. He had his best game of the season last week against the Cowboys in a 20-point loss that really could have been much closer.
Starting point is 00:25:22 So the wise guys are starting to find some love for this Bears team. And so they bet the Bears at plus five and a half, plus five, is down to four and a half. Here's the last game I like. Ravens just lost a receiver for their game. Monday night in New Orleans, that's one of the loudest crowds in the league. I think the Saints have really good personnel. And I took them last week.
Starting point is 00:25:44 I'm going to take them again. I think the Ravens are a team that plays close games because there are absolute limitations down the field and now they've lost another receiver. It's just too many points. And you know what, man? Superdome on Monday night. Those people don't need a reason to party. They do.
Starting point is 00:26:00 It is, I always believe it's like a five point advantage. Monday night in New Orleans is not your typical three. It feels way closer to four to five. I'm going to take the Saints sharper square. That's a sharp play. And look, the Raybo's just got Rokon Smith. That's not really going to matter when you're talking about the circumstances you just described, which is the Saints at home in prime time are a different team.
Starting point is 00:26:26 and they are a different team that can pressure the quarterback without having to blitz. They are a team that is starting to see Alvin Camara get much, much better. And the key factor here for them is always going to be, how does Andy Dalton avoid the mistakes? We've seen what happens when he avoids the mistakes. We've seen what happens when he makes the mistakes. The wise guys are going to count on getting a short home dog in a really get-right spot in prime time against a team that hasn't been able to close anybody out.
Starting point is 00:26:57 So totally sharp, Colin. All right. Now we do the game that I thought about, but I want your professional opinion. Then we do the game that I missed. So let's start with a game. I'm not going to bet, but I want your professional opinion. New England, I would have taken New England minus four and a half. I do worry about their offense, but I have a history of Belichick and young
Starting point is 00:27:18 quarterbacks. And I saw it again last weekend. He just literally undresses them. Andy Reid off a buy, Belichick against the young quarterback. I bet both a lot, and it's won me a lot. But I worry about what New England has. Tell me Sharper Square, where would I go if I did bet it? You totally bet on the Colts.
Starting point is 00:27:43 And everything you're saying about Belichick is true. And what he did against the Jets is totally true. But what was the final score of that game? It was close. It was close. Yeah, it's close. So do I really want to bet on the Patriots as nearly six-point favorites, right? When Shaq Leonard is probably off a snap count, this Colt defense is top five, top six in the NFL and sort of all the advanced metrics, DVOA, rush success rate, all the things that betters think about from the running side of the ball on defense, that's,
Starting point is 00:28:22 That's what they're great at. That's the strength of the Patriots offense. Mack Jones and this passing offense are bottom third in passing the ball downfield. So you've got a limited Pat's offense giving a lot of points. They couldn't beat the Jets by more than five. And Zach Wilson is probably the worst quarterback in the NFL right now. He is. And Matt Jones is terrible against zone defense.
Starting point is 00:28:48 That's what the Colts do really well. So I think the wise guys are looking at the number more than they're thinking about, is it Sam Ellinger, is it Bill Belichick against a rookie? They're thinking about a Patriots team that is pretty limited getting a relatively big number. And let me give you one more stat. Let me give you a stat. All right. Great stat.
Starting point is 00:29:09 Underdogs this season between three and ten points. So this game is at five and a half of 41 and 21 against the spread this season covering 66% of the time. And by the way, those underdogs, 25, 36, and 1 straight up. So if you're betting those underdogs on the money line, you're winning it. Your ROI is 26%. Can I add this as America's honesty broker and a humble man? Yes. I appear to have been right on my Zach Wilson as Johnny Mansell with an arm take.
Starting point is 00:29:43 Go ahead. Give it to me. Bring the heat. Colin, as America's honesty, broker and humble. You are genius. And the Zach Wilson take is incredibly spot on. And I will never understand why anybody thought
Starting point is 00:30:03 this is the guy. When everyone could say, he had an NFL offensive line at BYU, had a thousand years to throw the ball and was playing against weakened competition. It made no sense that all of a sudden this was going to be the guy. And I think you've seen it with Robert
Starting point is 00:30:19 Sala, right? He basically just decided, this guy stinks. I'm not banking my career on this guy. When he had Breeze Hall, he was making sure Breeze Hall got the ball, making sure his defense is going to win him some games. And even against the Patriots with a terrible quarterback, they still kept it pretty close. So you were 100% right. The Jets already got to find a new quarterback. Okay, the game I missed. Can I guess? Good. No, you don't like favorite. I was going to say Raiders. minus one and a half at Jacksonville? Oh, God, no. A thousand percent taking the jacks. It's going to burn me every week, but I'm going to do it every single week.
Starting point is 00:31:00 This is a not very good Raiders team that is playing against a jack team that is consistently unlucky. And when I mean unlucky, like what are the parameters that go into being unlucky? Kind of those fluke turnover plays, those not converting. God, they are. I can be terrible. It's terrible. But there's still a team that is playing to more wins statistically than they have in standings.
Starting point is 00:31:29 And so I'm getting them as an underdog at home against a Raiders team that I just don't think is very good. So why wouldn't I play the Jaguars? All right. Which game did I miss? Seahawks at the Cardinals. Why is the Seahawks? I wanted to take that. Damn, I wanted to take that game.
Starting point is 00:31:46 So you may have talked me into that. Do it. I can't figure out why Arizona is favored here. You have two defenses that statistically are relatively the same, although you're starting to see the Seahawks defense the last couple of weeks trend more towards the upper team. Getting a much better pass rush next last couple weeks. They're getting much, much better. And then you look at the offenses. The Seahawks have one of the most explosive passing offenses in the NFL per every metric that anyone cares about. And now their rushing game is getting so much better. because of what's happening with Kenneth Walker. So this is a very good team. I'm not saying like they've gone from being a team everyone thought was going to be the worst in the NFC to all of a sudden being a favorite to win the NFC, but they're better than the Cardinals. And that's where we're talking about the most important thing.
Starting point is 00:32:36 This is a coaching mismatch. And not just like, okay, Pete Carroll's an underdog in his career is brilliant, winning it more than a 60% clip. Cliff Kingsbury, very small sample. has won maybe half as many games as he's lost as a favorite. Think very specifically. There's a metric called success rate, which basically means how well do you do in early downs?
Starting point is 00:33:01 The cards rank 31st in play success rate, meaning they don't do very well in early downs, and then they depend on Kyler Murray to bail them out. The Seahawks, third in success rate, meaning on the early downs in a series, they are leading themselves into more successful drives and easier plays for their quarterback. This team shouldn't be an underdog right now.
Starting point is 00:33:25 That was good. A lot of good information. You know what? A lot of people doubted you for years. Not me, not this guy. No. Listen, you recognize talent. You saw it with Zach Wilson.
Starting point is 00:33:37 Years ago, you plucked me off the street. I remember, I remember we were in building two. We're walking through the hallway. You're like, kid, I don't know you, but you got some. Kid. All right, buddy. Good seeing you. I'll see you later.
Starting point is 00:34:07 Volume. Make sure to check out the Dremon Green Show. I brought Dremon Green into the volume because one of the more entertaining voices in sports, unique perspective, understands behind the rope. Also chops up with guests like Gary Payton, Zach Levine, Tracy McGrady. Make sure download the Dremont Green Show wherever you get your podcast, only on the volume. podcast network. Another podcast from some
Starting point is 00:34:37 SNL late night comedy guy, not quite on humor me with Robert Smygel and friends. Me and hilarious guests from Bob Odenkirk to David Letterman help make you funnier. This week, my guest, SNL's Mikey Day and head writer Streeter Seidel help an a cappella band with their
Starting point is 00:34:52 between songs banter. Where does your group perform? We do some retirement homes. Those people are starving for banter. Listen to humor me with Robert Smigel and Friends on the I-heart radio app. Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts. Imagine an Olympics where doping is not only legal but encouraged. It's the enhanced games.
Starting point is 00:35:12 Some call it grotesque. Others say it's unleashing human potential. Either way, the podcast's Superhuman documented it all, embedded in the games and with the athletes for a full year. Within probably 10 days, I'd put on 10 pounds. I was having trouble stopping the muscle growth. Listen to Superhuman on the I-Hard Radio app. Apple Podcasts or wherever you get your podcasts.
Starting point is 00:35:35 This is an IHeart podcast. Guaranteed human.

There aren't comments yet for this episode. Click on any sentence in the transcript to leave a comment.